EOCBB on CBSSN: Bracketology special! Projecting top 16 overall seeds. Plus: Darryn Peterson and KU steal one in Lubbock

Summary

Eye On College Basketball – Bracketology Special: Projecting Top 16 Overall Seeds & Darryn Peterson’s Heroics at Lubbock

Episode Date: February 3, 2026
Hosts: Gary Parrish & Matt Norlander

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Episode Overview

This episode offers a deep dive into the current projected top 16 seeds for the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament (as of early February 2026), breaking down the Bracketology in detail. Before the bracketology discussion, the hosts analyze Kansas’ thrilling win at Texas Tech, fueled by projected NBA No.1 pick Darryn Peterson’s clutch performance. The episode is a blend of insider insight, statistical breakdowns, and in-the-moment reactions to key storylines shaping this college basketball season.

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A Block: Kansas Steals a Win at Texas Tech, Darryn Peterson’s NBA-level Heroics

Setting the Scene: Kansas @ Texas Tech Recap

• Final Score: Kansas 64, Texas Tech 61
• Key storyline: Darryn Peterson, the likely top pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, changed the game in the final 80 seconds with two crucial three-pointers—one to tie, another for the lead.
• Notable Context: Peterson’s minutes and late-game availability have been under a microscope due to previous games where he sat out with cramps or injury concerns. All eyes were on how he’d perform in a pressure-filled road environment.

[01:51] Gary Parrish kicks off the discussion:

“Darren Peterson, the presumed number one pick of the 2026 NBA Draft. He flipped the game in the final 80 seconds... a real college basketball moment.”

[02:45] Matt Norlander on the irony of the performance:

• Peterson logged a season-high 35 minutes.
• For most of the game he was “just another guy”; Texas Tech looked set for a win, especially with star Christian Anderson sidelined.
• “But when you needed the superhero to toss on the cape in the big moment at the end—yes, that's exactly what Peterson did.”

[03:55] Norlander, on Peterson’s clutch shooting:

“The first [three] from the bottom right wing—contested, off-balance, a really good flare screen set for him—he bangs it home and... it's like, okay, are they actually going to rip this game? Yeah, they ripped it.”

Supporting Cast

• Melvin Council Jr. scored 16 points.
• Flory Badunga held JT Toppin to 10 points, 6 boards (one of his worst games this year).

Notable Recent Highlight:

• Peterson’s dunk vs. BYU over the weekend: “one of the three biggest jump off your couch plays of the entire season.” (Norlander, [04:35])

Analysis: Peterson’s NBA Stock & Comparison

[05:00] Gary Parrish:

• “It wasn't like they were running stuff... it was just like, hey, go be—I hesitate to use the comparison, but—go be Kobe Bryant.”
• “If it's just a basketball evaluation, Darryn Peterson is the number one pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. And in those final 80 seconds, at least—you saw it, crystal clear.”

[07:43] Parrish updates his mock draft stance:

“In a preseason mock draft, I would have had AJ Debon number one. I would now have him number two... Sometimes you need to just see what’s right in front of you.”

[08:17] Norlander cautions:

• Peterson is the projected No. 1, but hasn’t "truly separated" from the field.
• "This is a super talented class,” with other rising prospects (e.g., Keaton Wagler, Illinois).
• “Texas Tech fans regrettable chant... one of the all-time backfires. Don't poke the bear.” (Norlander, [09:51])

[09:51] Norlander—on Peterson’s demeanor:

“He’s got a straight demeanor… never too high, never too low. But he's got a graceful killer instinct to his game that I find irresistible.”

Kansas Outlook

• Now 17-5, on a 6-game win streak, staying in Big 12 title contention.
• “Started with the home win over Iowa State... now gets the road win at Texas Tech.” (Norlander, [09:51])

[11:15] Parrish on evaluating Peterson:

“If I'm an NBA GM, I want to talk about that. I want to understand better what's going on there... But if it’s just a basketball evaluation, he’s a special, special young man... those last 80 seconds were legendary stuff.”

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B Block: Bracketology Breakdown – Projecting the NCAA Top 16

[14:19] Kicking Off the Bracket Talk

• Format: Each host independently seeded the top four teams on each tournament line (1–4), revealing and debating them live.

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One Seeds (1–4)

Gary Parrish’s 1-Seeds ([15:28]–[17:01])

• 1. Arizona – 22-0, nine Q1 wins, big non-conference victories, undefeated.
• 2. UConn – 21-1, only loss without two starters, “undefeated at full strength.”
• 3. Duke – 20-1, #1 in NET and BPI, lone loss to Texas Tech.
• 4. Michigan – 20-1, only 1 loss (Q2, vs. Wisconsin), #1 KenPom, #4 SOR.

Matt Norlander’s 1-Seeds

• Same teams, different order:
  1. Arizona
  2. Michigan – “Most combined Q1 and Q2 wins, dominant overall.”
  3. Duke – “#1 in wins above bubble.”
  4. UConn – “#4 in wins above bubble.”

Debates/Key Points

• Arizona’s “number one overall seed… not debatable” (Norlander, [17:08]).
• UConn’s lone loss came when missing key players—somewhat considered, but “committee won’t hypothetical that to the #1 spot.” (Norlander, [19:21])
• All agree: “These are the four. There is not a case for any team that you did not see on that screen to be a 1 seed at this point. It is clear and without debate.” (Norlander, [17:08])

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Two Seeds (5–8)

Parrish’s 2-Seeds ([21:47])

• Gonzaga – 22-1, lone L to Michigan, 15-game win streak, non-con schedule backfired but fifth in NET.
• Iowa State – 20-2, Q1 wins, Joshua Jefferson a star.
• Illinois – 19-3, 11-game streak, Keaton Wagler’s emergence.
• Houston – 19-2, great résumé, including Kingston Flemings’ rise.

Norlander’s 2-Seeds ([22:46])

• Nebraska (“the best two seed resume on the board right now”—Norlander, [22:46])
• Iowa State
• Illinois
• Houston
• Puts Gonzaga on the 3-line—the main difference.

Key Debates:

• Gonzaga vs. Nebraska:
  • “Gonzaga’s non-league SOS backfired… hoping for more Q1 opportunities, but their opponents underperformed.” (Norlander, [22:46])
  • “If Kentucky is disappointing relative to preseason expectations, I’m just not going to hold that against them. I do think the attempt matters.” (Parrish, [25:52])
• Nebraska’s case:
  • 20–2 (“gargantuan record”), top 5 in SOR, “Q1A wins” (Norlander, [30:59])

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Three Seeds (9–12)

Parrish’s 3-Seeds ([35:46])

• Nebraska
• Michigan State – 19-3, elite defense.
• Vanderbilt – 19-3, exceeded preseason expectations, strong Q1/2 record.
• Kansas – 17-5, tough to evaluate due to Peterson’s absences.
  • “Kansas has only played five combined games against Q3 and Q4. That is the lowest of any team in the discussion…” (Norlander, [36:53])

Norlander’s 3-Seeds ([36:06])

• Gonzaga (instead of Nebraska)
• Vanderbilt / Michigan State (interchangeable)
• Kansas – “Five losses is different than three… but strength of schedule matters.”

Both hosts agree this group includes powerhouse teams capable of deep March runs, even from the 3-line.

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Four Seeds (13–16)

Parrish’s 4-Seeds ([41:00])

• Purdue – Sliding lately but metrics still strong.
• Florida – “Reigning national champions” finding late-season stride.
• Virginia – 18-3, Ryan Odom’s “immediately outstanding job.”
• BYU – 17-4, led by AJ Debon, barely edged over Texas Tech.

Norlander’s 4-Seeds ([41:09])

• Purdue
• Virginia
• Florida
• Texas Tech (over BYU)
  • Tech’s wins over Duke and Houston set them apart from BYU (“Tech has done that. BYU doesn’t have heft at the top of the schedule.” – Norlander, [43:24])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “[Peterson is] one of those players who is really, really good who doesn't often emote a lot on the floor. Never too high, never too low. But he's got a graceful killer instinct to his game that I find irresistible.” – Matt Norlander, [09:51]
• “If it's just a basketball evaluation, Darryn Peterson is the number one pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. And in those final 80 seconds, at least—you saw it, crystal clear.” – Gary Parrish, [06:36]
• “If Kentucky is disappointing relative to preseason expectations, I’m just not going to hold that against [Gonzaga]. I do think the attempt matters.” – Gary Parrish, [25:52]
• “I think Nebraska has the best case to be the top two seed.” – Matt Norlander, [30:59]
• “The Peterson stuff... will not matter in how the [committee] slots [Kansas]. He’ll have played in too many games...” – Matt Norlander, [36:06]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:51–11:15 — Kansas at Texas Tech, Darryn Peterson’s emergence, NBA comparisons, impact
• 14:19–19:21 — Introduction to Bracketology, top 1 seeds discussion and debate
• 21:47–30:59 — Two seeds—Gonzaga vs. Nebraska, Iowa State, Illinois, Houston
• 35:46–38:53 — Three seeds—Vanderbilt, Nebraska, Michigan State, Kansas (why Kansas lands on the 3-line)
• 41:00–45:06 — Four seeds—Purdue, Florida, Virginia, BYU vs. Texas Tech, how these margins are determined
• 45:34–close — Reflecting on an “incredible season,” the depth of real contenders in 2026 college basketball

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Final Thoughts / Tone

The hosts approach both analysis and debates with a blend of deep statistical knowledge and light, playful banter. They are data-driven but maintain humility about the subjectivity of seeding. The episode captures the intensity, unpredictability, and excitement of college basketball as March looms.

“If you just focus on the games, man, the players—it’s been an incredible season...” — Gary Parrish, [45:35]

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Transcript

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[Gary Parrish]

Hey there, I am Gary Parish. Welcome back to the Ion College Basketball podcast here on CBS Sports Network, where we sometimes discuss camel fighting, Dodo birds and Leaky Black. You see him right there. Matt Norlander is here with me and we've got a fun show planned for you. We're going to talk bracketology starting in the B block, but the A block I think it's got to be what happened Monday night down in Lubbock, Texas. Final score Kansas 64, Texas Tech 61. Darren Peterson, the presumed number one pick of the 2026 NBA Draft. He flipped the game in the final 80 seconds. He made one tough three pointer from the right corner to tie it, then made another one from the top to give Kansas a lead it would never relinquish. Norlander Personal 60 run from Darren Peterson to close that game. He flipped a loss into a win. That felt like a real college basketball moment. Can you confirm it for me? Was that a big moment in the sport?

[Matt Norlander]

It was. And the irony, a couple pieces of irony here. One season high, 35 minutes on the floor. Look what happens when Darren Peterson can play the majority of a game. Amazing thing is really cool, right? Wonderful to see it. We begged for it on the Sunday ion college basketball pod and we got it one night later. That was awesome to see. But also Darren Peterson, dare I say for the first 38 and a half minutes of this game was a jag. Just another guy wasn't shooting well from the floor. His teammates were being more impactful. Texas Tech was pacing toward the win. Texas Tech, by the way, which found itself shorthanded with its best shooter not being able to play. Christian Anderson battling an illness. We saw him on the sideline there coming out of halftime looking like he might try and give it a go, but for whatever reason, he couldn't give it a go. So if I had told you before this game there's going to be an excellent shooter, an all American candidate who can't get on the floor, we would have thought it was Darren Peterson. Thankfully, it was not. Hopefully Anderson will be back for the next game. But not having him on the floor, by the way, that did mean something for Texas Tech. I thought if he had played the game, Texas Tech would have won. He didn't play the game, Texas Tech didn't win. Darren Peterson hit a couple of awesome threes, the first of which was more difficult than the second that gave Kansas the lead. But that first one from the, from the bottom right wing contested off balanced. A really good flare screen set for him. He bangs at home and, and at that moment it's like, okay, are they actually going to rip this game? Yeah, they ripped it. So I will like Melvin Council Jr. Had 16 in the, in this game. He was terrific. Florida Badunga shut down JT Toppin significantly. Toppin only had 10 points and six boards, one of his worst games of the season. So credit to those two. Bryson Tiller had some moments, but when you needed the superhero to toss on the cape in the big moment at the end, yes, that is, that's exactly what Peterson did. And so now Peterson has two of his three or four biggest moments of the season in back to back games. It was the dunk over the weekend in traffic in the first half at home against byu, which I think is one of the three biggest jump off your couch plays of the entire season. And now it's the two threes in the span of what, 25, 30 seconds to lift Kansas over Texas Tech on the and in the process significantly boost its resume and keep a six game winning streak going. Give me everything you got on this gp what you saw and your takeaways from what went down in Lubbock on Monday.

[Gary Parrish]

Well, I just thought the stage was set perfectly for him to have either a big game or a big moment or something. He was going to be a massive topic of conversation almost no matter what because of what has been happening this season and what happened once again on Saturday. As you know, this past weekend was the first weekend where we had college basketball with no football to overshadow anything. So Darren Peterson sitting out Most of the second half in that showdown with AJ DeBontson, BYU became a big story. Like if you were a college basketball columnist or analyst and you went on a radio show on Monday to talk about the sport, regardless of what market you were in, you were going to get asked about Darren Peterson in part because of where he has slotted in various mock drafts. And so is he going to play on Monday night? We thought so, but never know for sure. If he does play, what will he look like? If he does play, will he finish the game? How will his quads feel? There were a lot of eyeballs on that last night and for much of it he was ordinary. I mean, ordinary in a way that an unusually gifted person can be. He was 5 of 14 from the field in the game. That was not one of the best games of his season to date. It will not be one of his best games going forward. But those last 80 seconds you saw it, that was like, there's 10 dudes on the court, but one one is different than everybody else and he's just going to go win the game. It wasn't like they were running stuff or hey, give me this boss. It was just like, hey, go B. I hesitate to use the comparison, but do a Twitter search. You're going to see it. Go be Kobe Bryant. Can you go shoot us to a victory here? Go make tough shots and win this game. And he did it, you know, twice in the final 80 seconds. And that's why, like I tweeted Monday night, I know I've said it multiple times. If it's just it, if it's just A basketball evaluation. This is easy. And I want to be clear. This isn't something I've been saying for two years. I don't even know that I was saying it a year ago. But if you've got eyeballs and you point them at a television, it's not hard to see he's different than even the other elite prospects. And there are multiple other elite prospects. But if it's just a basketball evaluation, Darren Peterson is the number one pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. And in those final 80 seconds, at least you, you saw it crystal clear.

[Matt Norlander]

Hold on, hold on, hold on. You are. So you are stepping off your preseason pick. Preseason? Who did you have?

[Gary Parrish]

I. In a preseason mock draft, I would have had AJ debon number one. I would now have him number two. And he. Nothing to disappoint me. He's been awesome. Just at some point you're evaluating anything in life, including basketball prospects. You being rigid can get you in trouble. Sticking to your guns can get you to a bad place. Sometimes you need to just see what's right in front of you. And I think most people agree. Now the Darren Peterson thing right in front of all of us is, is different than any other thing that's going to be available.

[Matt Norlander]

What's interesting is had Peterson not been available at the end of the game, thankfully he, he was like, this is what we want to see. This is what I want to see him play as much as possible. But if for whatever reasons, like it went the way it had been going and he found himself incapable or unable not to be on the floor in the final five, six, seven, eight minutes of that game. GP and he doesn't hit those two three pointers. I'm not convinced you'd have that opinion. I almost feel like it's the result of this game in that spot because he wouldn't hit the 23 like he was having a subpar game for himself. Overall, DeBonts is not that far removed from dropping 43A. Now he's had some, some bumpy performances around that. So, yes, Peterson is the projected number one pick and, and rightfully so. I'm interested to see if he can. Like he is. I don't want to say he is separated because I don't believe that to be the case. I think this is a super talented class and we've seen a situation where Keaton Wagler has gone from not even being a projected starter at Illinois to vaulting into potentially the top five. So there's still plenty of basketball to go with all this but I am interested to see if Darren Peterson can truly separate from the rest of the class. I don't think he's done that yet. I think he's in the first position. I think that's different from like the Zion year when it was Zion at one and there was no one else up for debate. There's still a little bit of a debate to be had because we are GP. We are not 48 hours removed from what we are talking about over the weekend there. If you can get healthy then, then we have a different and stay healthy and stay on the floor. We've got a different thing altogether. And oh by the way, Texas Tech fans regrettable chant directed. Obviously we are not going to say it. We are on television in the middle of the day.

[Gary Parrish]

Go ahead, go ahead.

[Matt Norlander]

Hey listen, I feel like if anyone's going to do it on the show, you are the guy for it. I am certainly not going to do it. That is one of the all time backfires though. Don't, don't, don't mess with, don't mess with the beast. And Peterson really unleashed something and he's so steady too. That's the other thing is he, he's got a straight demeanor. Doesn't mean he's not intense. Of course he is. But he is one of those players who is really, really good who doesn't often emote a lot on the floor. Never too high, never too low. But he's got a graceful, he's got a graceful killer instinct to his game that I find irresistible. That's a big one for Kansas. It's now 17 and five. It's won six in a row. Started with the home win over Iowa State obviously got the home win over BYU over the weekend and now gets the road win against Texas Tech. It's done well for itself in that regard and kept itself in the Big 12 picture for, for Big 12 champion. Now we got plenty more to figure out. The Big 12 is about to have just an absurd like game over, game over, game over game run in February with all these really good teams playing each other. But in the league right now, Arizona, of course 9 and O. Then you've got Houston at 7 and 1 and then Iowa State and Kansas are at 7 and 2, still very much up for grabs. I thought that was a very meaningful result for Kansas. Hopes of even getting the the top spot in the Big 12 standings by the time we get to the end of the first week of March. We'll see if they can get there. Peterson having his Teammates lift him up before they need him in the final moment, I thought was a very, very key development.

[Gary Parrish]

I think the phrase that applies to the Texas Tech students is maybe don't poke the bear. I think don't poke the bear is the phrase that perhaps applies here. To circle back to your question or your point, had Darren Peterson not made those shots last night and or not finish the game, my basketball opinion would have been the same. I've seen enough from just a. If he's. That's the guy, I can't pass on that. But that's why I'm careful with the way I phrase it. So I say things like, if it's just a basketball evaluation, he's. He's got to be the guy. But I recognize there's more to it than that. And I don't love that his body has not cooperated with him for much of this season. And I also don't love just the optics of the way it looked on Saturday. It didn't look like he was. I mean, sort of the point I've settled into on this is I've been watching basketball my entire life. I know what basketball players look like when they cramp. I know what tennis players look like when they cramp. I've watched Carlos Alcaraz cramp before, and they usually grimace. You can see it. They drop to the floor, the court, the surface, whatever. Somebody's working on them. Multiple people are working on them. There's a sense of urgency, a visual sense of urgency to it. They try to give it a go. Maybe they can, maybe they can't. And with him, you just didn't see any of that on Saturday. It was like I felt something and we're done here. And that's a weird. I. If I'm an NBA general manager, I want to talk about that. I want to understand better what's going on there, because I don't think anybody's done the best job of explaining it away. So if there's a lot going on here, but if it's just a basketball evaluation, he's. He's a special, special young man. And you didn't see it for 40 minutes at Texas Tech, but he was on the court for 35, and those last 80 seconds were. That was legendary stuff. Moving on in my Jim Hildebrand voice, did you realize Selection Sunday in Orlando is just six weeks from this Sunday? We're going to have a bracket before you know it. And for the rest of the show, I want to focus on that. We're going to do our best to detail what the top 16 seeds in the NCAA tournament might look like if the selection committee were putting bracket right now. So that's coming up next. We'll pop through the one seeds. You're watching the I Own College Basketball podcast. We're here on CBS Sports Network.

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[Gary Parrish]

Welcome back to the Ion College basketball podcast here on CBS Sports Network. Norlander, are you capable of being a bracketologist? I don't know if you know this about me, but in a previous life I kind of, I doubled as a bracketologist a little bit.

[Matt Norlander]

Yeah, no, same here. Entirely capable, ready, eager, able, willing to do so. Let's have a little fun. You know, you get the Tuesday ion show, the bonus pod content. Let's, let's mix it up here and dive into a kind of a broader topic and take a look at the top one seeds, two seeds, three seeds and four seats and do so. By the way, we still got a couple weeks before we get to the actual in season top 16 reveal on CBS. So this is enough removed from that one where we can give people a sneak peek of what they might need to prepare for and what's at stake for some of these teams over the next couple of weeks.

[Gary Parrish]

Okay, so let me tell you how we're going to do this. We have both put together list of our top four seeds. So 16 total teams. I have not seen Norlander's list. He has not seen my list. If I'm being completely honest, I don't think that's the way you're supposed to do television. But here we are. So what we're it is how you're.

[Matt Norlander]

Supposed to do podcasting though, that is even the more fun. Let's do this baby.

[Gary Parrish]

Okay. We'll have a staff meeting about it and settle it once and for all. So let's pop through my number one seeds first and we'll see how they compare to yours. I, I'm assuming we're going to start at the exact same place as the number one overall seed. As of this moment, I would have the Arizona Wildcats 22 and oh 9 and 1 in quadrant one. They got wins over UConn, Florida, Auburn, Alabama, BYU. Number one in strength of record, one of only two undefeated teams left in the sport. The Arizona Wildcats would be my number one overall seed. I also would have UConn as a one seed at 21 and 15 and one in quadrant one, undefeated at full strength. The Big east isn't giving them too many great quadrant one opportunities. But that's not Dan Hurley's fault. His team is awesome. They would be a one seed right now. Duke would also be a one seed right now. 20 and one overall, nine and one in quadrant one. Number one in the net. Number one in BPI loan loss for Duke is two Texas tech. Um, they haven't beaten a currently ranked team other than Louisville since December 6th. But a little bit like UConn, that's not Duke's fault. That speaks to the state of the ACC. Duke would be a one seed right now. And my fourth number one seed would be Michigan. 20 and 18 and oh in quadrant one. Only team in this group with a loss outside of quadrant one. But number one at Ken Palm. Number four in strength of record. Number four right now in my top 25 and one. My number one seeds would be Arizona, UConn, Duke and Michigan.

[Matt Norlander]

Is that your. We have the same 41 seats. Is that your order too?

[Gary Parrish]

I would have them in that order, but I understand it's debatable.

[Matt Norlander]

It is. Michigan, I think, would be definitively the number two overall seat of the committee met today. It has the Most combined quad one and quad two wins. It's 15 of its 20 wins are quad one and quad two. It had some dominant wins overall. The 15 total. Quad one, quad two wins are two more than any other team. And I think that offsets the fact that their one loss is a Q2 loss at home against Wisconsin. So I've got Michigan in the two spot overall there. They're also number one in a bunch of advanced metrics. I just think that that gives them the edge. I have Duke at 3:21 overall, 7:0 on the road, number one in wins above bubble, which is a metric that people need to be paying attention to because it's going to mean a ton in the committee room. Duke is ahead. Yes, believe it or not, it is narrow. Duke is ahead of Arizona in wins above bubble in the NCAA's metric. I've got them three overall, 13 and one. Duke is in quad one and quad two. And then I've got Yukon at fourth, 21 and 17 and on. On fourth and wins above bubble. This is. We disagree on the order. Whatever. There's so much time to figure out. This is not debatable at this point. On Tuesday, February 3rd, there is a line. These are the 4.1seeds. There is not a case for any team that you did not see on that screen to be a 1 seed at this point. It is clear and. And without debate to me that these are the four. And it's obviously not debatable that Arizona is number one overall seed. It's gotten to this point without a loss, having that strong, strong record. A number of really notable non conference wins as well. So we agree on. We agree on the 4. Just disagree on the order. I don't. You've got Michigan fourth overall in the pecking order. I can't possibly imagine how that would be the case when it has the most combined Q1 and Q2 wins in addition to being what, number two, number three overall and wins above bubble.

[Gary Parrish]

I would argue that Michigan, like I noted, is the one team in this group that has the loss outside of quadrant one. So they've got the worst loss of the bunch. Where we're Also different is UConn. And I guess I would just argue there if they are at full strength and this will be a conversation the committee has. But if, if UConn is at full strength, you can reasonably argue they are undefeated right now and ranked number one in the country and Arizona is not an undefeated team right now. I know we're not going to assume.

[Matt Norlander]

That they won't, but they won't do that. They will not say like that UConn would have won the game at full strength. Like that will not come into the committee's discussion. You can make the case, but I'm telling you that will not be. They will not do that. What if to, to vault them to be one over Arizona, that's all.

[Gary Parrish]

No, no, no, no, no. I, I'm not arguing they should be number one over Arizona. I am arguing that you can reasonably argue if this team weren't missing two starters, it could, it could very realistically be undefeated right now. And I, I'll take that into account. And I could make them the second number one seed in a pecking order behind Arizona. I'm not in suggesting hypothetically flip that loss into a win based off of, man, if that guy would have played.

[Matt Norlander]

They didn't have Braylon Mullins or Terrace Reed in the home game. For people that have forgotten when Arizona went into stores and went on the road back in November.

[Gary Parrish]

Yeah, I would just understand that the the one blemish on UConn's resume right now is a loss in which they were missing two two very important rotation pieces. And perhaps that should be taken into account. Either way, we agree on the one seeds. Arizona, Yukon, Duke, Michigan in some order. But starting with Arizona, every time when we let's talk two seeds. This conversation, at least for me, is going to involve the Zags stick right here. You're watching the Iowan College Basketball Podcast. We're on CBS Sports Network. Welcome back to the Iron College Basketball Podcast. We're here on CBS Sports Network. We're playing Bracketologist today. We've run through our one seeds. We didn't agree on the order but we did agree on the four schools. I have a feeling we are not going to agree on our two seeds. We'll run through mine first, then we'll get to yours. My two seeds start with Gonzaga 22 and one lone loss to Michigan by by 40, by 40 but lone lost to Michigan 22 and one on the season. Fifth in the net, seventh in strength of record. That's all two seed stuff. 15 game winning streak. Despite the absence of Bradenhoff, Mark Few is about to win a 23rd and final West Coast Conference regular season championship. Another two seed Iowa State 20 and two overall, five and one in quadrant one. Had a brief two game losing streak but won four straight since fourth in the net, eighth and strength and record. Joshua Jefferson has emerged as a real first team all American candidate. Another two seed Illinois 19 and three rolling 11 game winning streak. Keaton Wagler has developed into a likely one and done top 10 pick even though he was, you know, ranked around 150th in his high school class. Seven and three in quadrant one. All of the losses are to teams in the top 22 of the net. They're number six in the net and strength of record. I've got Illinois as a 2 seed and then it's the Houston Cougars 19 and 2. They've won 13 of 14 loan loss in that stretch at Texas Tech. I think they check every box for what you need to win a national championship. They've got a Hall of Fame caliber coach, they've got roster continuity carryover from a final four team and then they got multiple five star freshmen, most notably Kingston Flemings who like Keaton Wagler who has developed into a top 10 pick, maybe for Flemings even top five. So there's my two sees. Gonzaga, Iowa State, Illinois, Houston. Poke holes in it if you can. Norlander.

[Matt Norlander]

Well we have A very interesting twist here. Don't show my seeds just yet. We have the same team in three spots. So we've got Iowa State, then Illinois and then Houston in the same spot. You have Gonzaga as the number one two seed. Go ahead, flare mine on the screen here because I think there is a very compelling case that Nebraska is the best two seed resume on the board right now. So GP and I agree cyclones, then Illinois, then Houston, 6, 7 and 8 in the sea line. But we are fairly far apart on Nebraska and Gonzaga. Let's dive into this here and I will start with Gonzaga and then we'll get to Nebraska. So what's going to inevitably happen here is that some teams at GPS in this block I don't and vice versa. So with Gonzaga, Gonzaga 22 and 1 and this isn't Gonzaga's fault, but the non con schedule did backfire on it a bit at at some point you have to stack up the resume versus the other teams that are in your neighborhood sitting at your table and see where we're at. So Gonzaga beat Oklahoma, Creighton, Arizona State, Oregon and Maryland. It was hoping going into the season at least three of those teams would be of NCAA tournament quality. None of them are sniffing the big dance. So that has worked against Gonzaga because Those are not Quad 1 level games that they were hoping to have. A majority of them. They're not. They're now off the table, which is unfortunate. Now they have defeated Alabama in the non conference. That's a good win. Kentucky continues to age well and they smoked Kentucky. That was Kentucky's worst game of the season. The UCLA win still looking okay, like ucla, still pacing toward being a tournament team. But we'll kind of wait and see on that. The loan loss to me they will come up in the committee room like who knows how many losses Gonzaga will have on selection Sunday. Maybe it'll only have that one by 42. Michigan Absolutely roasted. Hard to ignore that. In quad one and quad two Gonzaga, which again I don't have in my two seat. It is my number one three seed and it was for me it was a coin flip with Gonzaga and Houston. Personally Gonzaga is 8 and 1. In quad one and two it is top eight in strength of record. It is all the way down at 12 in wins above bubble which makes it the final three seed in that particular metric. Gonzaga is an interesting case GP right now it's 5th in the net 16 in KPI, 14 at Torvik, it's 6 at BPI. It's all over the place. It does have the reason why I put Gonzaga on the three line. Quad one wins. Right now it has eight that ranks 15th in the country. Fifteenth. So that's why I went Gonzaga there. Before we get into my Nebraska stuff, let's, let's volley it back to you and talk zags a little bit more because they do have a very compelling case and they don't have a lot of great opportunities left to increase their seed situation. They, they gotta, they gotta keep winning to have any. I think they might have to win out, frankly, to have any shot at a one seed.

[Gary Parrish]

As you know, I was just in Spokane. I was on the sideline for Gonzaga's game against San Francisco at the Kennel on CBS Sports Network.

[Matt Norlander]

Is that all that needs to be said? I. Listen, I've had a face to face with Mark Few in the past week or so, and that's basically why I.

[Gary Parrish]

Was, I was there for five days. I enjoyed every minute of it, but I was only supposed to be there for three. The weather got in the way. Also lost my luggage. It was a wild trip, but I enjoyed my time there. What's funny is that while I was there just talking to various people around the program, the non league strength of schedule came up and somebody noted like with a smile that they had just stumbled into a list of the most disappointing teams in college basketball this season. And they were like, it's just all the people we beat. It's like we beat them and then they now everybody calls them disappointed. Our whole non league schedule is just filled with teams that we beat that people now call disappointing. And so, so to your point, it's not their fault. They scheduled aggressively and they always do to build a strong at large resume that could theoretically get them in the one seed conversation. And so if Kentucky is disappointing relative to preseason expectations, I'm just not going to hold that against them. I do think the attempt matters. There are sometimes programs where they intentionally schedule lightly because that's what they think their best path forward is. I'll hold that against you, Gonzaga. They put together a schedule that, that should have been more challenging, filled with, you know, more signature victories that, that hold up through selection Sunday. But a lot of the teams that they scheduled have gone on to be disappointing. It's not their fault. To be clear, we're splitting hairs here. Like, I think on a seedline thing, I would have them five and you would have them nine. So we're in the same neighborhood here. But if you're looking for a reason to argue in favor of the Zag just did it. And then I would double down on fifth in the net, seventh and strength of record, you know, that falls in the top eight and top eight. And you know, that's, that's, that's, that's two seed stuff.

[Matt Norlander]

Okay, before we get to Nebraska, let's talk about the, the other teams that we both have in the same position. So Iowa State, 20 and 2. I've got, we've both got them six overall in the hierarchy. Losses at Kansas and then at Cincinnati. Cincinnati, a disappointment obviously, was a road loss nonetheless and still ranks as quad one. Roasted. Purdue at Purdue, beat St. John's in Vegas. Iowa is a top 25 win for the metrics right now for Iowa State. So almost hiding in plain sight. The Cyclones are, I think they're the, the team that has the most realistic shot to get to the one line by Selection Sunday that people might not realize is just sitting right there. Not, I'm not predicting it'll happen, but they're really well positioned and done well for themselves. Speaking of doing well for yourselves, Illinois, the losses are to Alabama, Yukon and Nebraska. And oh, by the way, they've split with Nebraska. This is why I have Nebraska. Just, you know, Illinois is 19 and 3, Nebraska's 20. And the metrics, when you line up next to each other, they're very, very close. Nebraska only has two losses, Illinois has three. That was one of the deciding things for me. Win, volume and loss total should matter. I've been beating that drum forever. Illinois beat Texas Tech in Champaign, beat Tennessee in Nashville. One at Purdue has 10 combined Q1, Q2 wins, whereas Nebraska has 11. And by the way, Iowa State has 13 combined Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins. So that's why I've got Illinois there. Illinois is doing wonderful for itself. And just because it's on the two line doesn't mean it's not a national title contender. Frankly, we've got national title contenders into the three line, maybe even into the four line as well. And then Houston, 19 and 2, has defeated Auburn in the state of Alabama. Arkansas in Jersey, beat Texas Tech at home, split with Tech losses by Tennessee by 3 and Texas Tech by 4. I think it is a coin flip between Houston and Gonzaga for the final spot. If it was up to me right now, I would give it to Houston. If I had to project what I think the committee would do if it was literally building without today, I think they would give it to Houston overall because the metrics very slightly, slightly favor them over Gonzaga. Gonzaga only has one loss. Houston has two Houston's playing a more difficult strength of schedule, but. But fascinating. They're all the same. Okay, can we dive into Nebraska or you want anything else on those teams before we get into Nebraska and take a break?

[Gary Parrish]

Just to reiterate, we agree on three of the two seeds. Our only difference is Gonzaga. Nebraska and we have that slot field in the same spot. In other wor words, my spoiler alert. Number one three seed would be Nebraska. Your number one three seed would be Gonzaga. So yes, you surprised me with the Corn Huskers. Let me tell you why. I did a I Own college Basketball podcast with you on Sunday and I asked you to predict what the AP poll would look like and I only asked for.

[Matt Norlander]

That's not, that's not bracketology.

[Gary Parrish]

I only asked for. I only asked for the top five. But you wanted to get real ambitious and go stretch it out all the way to 10. And I remember you saying something like I think I would get Nebraska out of the top 10. And I, I said I don't think I would and I wouldn't. I have Nebraska at number nine in the top 25 and one right now. I would have him as my best three seed. But how did you go from Sunday dropping Nebraska outside of the top ten to now you got him as a two seed in the NCAA tournament. Explain yourself. You're contradicting yourself.

[Matt Norlander]

I am not. As I've said many times on the show over the years, by the way, Nebraska holds firm in the top 10 at number nine. I said this on HQ on Monday. I'm actually proud of the voters for doing that. I was predicting what would happen. That one's on me. I was wrong. I was wrong about that. But an AP ranking is a snapshot, a power ranking of you, if you will, at a given moment in the season. A bracketology assignment is the totality of the resume in full. Those are two very different things. And right now I think Nebraska has the best case to be the top two seed. Here is why. 20 and 2 gargantuan record. Of course, the two losses are close at projected one seed Michigan and at home with a split to projected two seed Illinois. It has four top tier quad one wins. It is near the top of the entire sport when it comes to Q1A ones. The only teams that have more than Nebraska high high end wins are Arizona, Duke, Illinois, which has one more loss in Nebraska and Kansas. Those are the ones with Q1A wins. Nebraska to this point in the season has won alone. Illinois against Michigan State at Indiana. Projected tournament team A robust record. And not just that. The thing that really firmed it up for me, fifth in strength of record fifth and wins above bubble. In resume based metrics, Nebraska has the fifth best resume per NCAA tournament selection Team sheet stuff six and two in Quad one. It's done. Both losses are in Quad one has been able to manage not have too much of its schedule. BQ3Q4 9 Total Games. So that's why to me Nebraska is is sitting there at the top of the two line. I am genuinely surprised. Both just in terms of resume. How you've talked about the Corn Oscars. You don't just walk into Pinnacle bank. Even though Illinois just went in and they robbed the bank. They didn't just walk in. I'm convinced that someone at Illinois listens to the show and they weren't satisfied with Paris's mantra of you don't just walk into Pinnacle Bank. They had a thing on their whiteboard that said rob the rob the bleeping bank. They didn't want to. They wanted to straight up just walk out with everything there's there. I'm surprised you did. I'm genuinely shocked that you did not have Nebraska on the two line. That's my case for them at the top of it all.

[Gary Parrish]

I don't want to spend much time arguing against Nebraska. And again, we're splitting hairs here. If we were doing this like a list of teams, Norlander would have Nebraska 5 and I would have Nebraska 9. We would both have them in the top 10. Obviously. Still an incredible season underway. And this is a team that projects as either way, according to both of us, a top three seed of the NCAA tournament as of this moment. And if they get that, they're going to be set up to win their first game ever as a program in the NCAA tournament. We come back, we will talk three seeds. Yes, I'll start that list with Nebraska. Then we'll move on. I'll get to Vanderbilt and Kansas as well. You're watching the Iowa College Basketball Podcast. We're on CBS Sports Network Foreign. Welcome back to Allen College Basketball Podcast here on CBS Sports Network. We're running through what we believe will be the top 16 seeds in the NCAA Tournament if it were to start today. We agreed on the one seeds, just slightly different order. We mostly agreed on the two seeds, just different order. Now we're on to the threes. My list starts with Nebraska. Norland has already explained to you the resume. He's got him on the two line. I've got him as my highest rated three seed 20 and two started 20, so now 20 and two lost to Michigan, lost at home to Illinois. Like Norlander said. Keaton, Wagler and the Illini, they walked into Pinnacle Bank. They, they robbed the bank. 11 and two in the first two quadrants, 10th in the net, fifth in strength of record. I've got Michigan State as a three seed, 19 and three. Had one seven straight till Michigan got them last Friday night. 10 and three in the first two quadrants. Number two and adjusted defensive efficiency. Another great Tom Izzo team. I would have him as a three seed right now. Vanderbil, 19 and three after being picked outside of the top 10 in the preseason SEC poll. Just three and three in the past six after starting 16 and oh, so you know they've come back to earth a little bit. But still 11 and three in the first two quadrants. Beat Alabama, Kentucky, St. Mary's top 20 in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency, 14th in the net, 11th and strength and record again, just.500 in the past six. But that body of work is still three seed strong. Kansas would be my fourth three seed here. 17 and five. But a tough evaluation. Darren Peterson has only played in 12 of KU's 22 games. You saw what he's capable of, like quite literally just flipping losses into wins. That's what he did Monday night down in Lubbock against Texas Tech. But the question becomes for the selection committee, how do you evaluate Kansas's resume? Because it's. There's going to be a sizable portion of it with Darren Peterson and a sizable portion of it without Darren Peterson. So Nebraska, Michigan State, Kansas, Vanderbilt, those are my four three seeds as of today.

[Matt Norlander]

All right, so we've got three of the four same here. Whereas you've got Nebraska here, I've got Gonzaga. And then our order is different. Our order is a little bit different here. So I've got the Gonzaga at the top of the line. I think Vandy and Michigan State are interchangeable from a resume standpoint. I believe you just had MSU sitting there at 10 overall in the pecking order. I've got them at 11. Vandy is top eight in resume based metrics. Okay, it's 11 and three in quad one and quad two. That is tied for fourth best in the country. It's why I gave Vandy the slight edge over msu. But as tight as my Michigan, excuse me, as tight as my Houston versus Gonzaga for the final two in the first three was I think the Vandy Michigan State one is even more close at this point. Point you didn't. You neglected mention Vandy also won on the road against ucf, which comfortably projects as a tournament team. That's another really good one for the Commodores. So we'll see there. Michigan State has beaten Arkansas, Carolina, Kentucky, Iowa is a good win. Still the losses are to Duke at home, to Michigan at home. It's kind of why I dinged on the two home losses. They're good losses, but they're at home. And then obviously the Nebraska loss as well. Michigan State is eighth in wins above bubble right now, so that would even, you know, tilt to GP's placement. Again splitting hairs here overall and then lost volume matters something to me. The Peterson stuff will that may wind. We'll see if he can if he can stay healthy and play the rest of the season and play the majority of the time in those games, the how much Peterson didn't play in the start of the season just isn't going to be a factor. It will not matter in how the team the committee slots him. He'll have played in too many games and we'll see what he's capable of. And frankly, Kansas has done well even some games without him. But five losses is different than three losses. So that's why I've got Kansas as the last three seed. And in fact fact by virtue of winning on the road on Monday night, that's what put Kansas on the three line for me. If Kansas had lost that game, it would not have any business being on the three line in my opinion. It is 12 and 5 in Q1 and Q2 has defeated Tennessee NC State on the road and the Wolf Pack. We'll see what they can do against SMU on Tuesday night, but they've been up and down a bit. But that's still a Quality Quad 1 win, beat Iowa State 1 against BYU at home just got the win at Texas Tech. Five losses. The only one that's kind of eh is West Virginia and that's on the road. Like that's the only one that's in but it is five losses. I'm not going to discount that. Here is the reason why I have Kansas in this above all others. It has only played five combined games against Q3 and Q4. That is the lowest of any team that is in the discussion to be on the 1, 2, 3 or 4 line. Bill Self does this every year. Their slope of difficulty has been as tough as just about anyone in the country because they they aren't, they aren't burdening their resume with a lot of bad teams they deserve it. We agree Kansas put them on the three line.

[Gary Parrish]

So this is interesting. We have some teams with different numbers next to their names, some teams in different orders. But I believe this is right. If you take all 365 schools that play Division 1 men's basketball, like put them up on a board and then we were just scratching out our top 12, I think we have scratched out the exact same 12 schools. So we'll see if we can finish with four more. See how close we are on those. When we come back, we'll talk four seeds. That conversation for me is going to start with Purdue. We'll do that next on the Ion College Basketball Podcast here on CBS Sports Network. Welcome back to the I Own College Basketball Podcast. We're here on CBS Sports Network. We have talked one seeds, two seeds and three seeds. Total of 12 teams. And we agree on the 12 different orders, but we agree on the 12. Let's see if we can close it out. Similarly, my four seeds are going to start with Purdue. I've got the Boilermakers sitting at 18 and four. They're just one and three in their past four games. So sliding a bit but still eighth in the net. Strength of record is 12th, eight and four in the first two quadrants. I've got Purdue as a four seed. I've also got Florida here. The reigning national champions are now 166 after starting the season 5 and 4 preseason top 5 team that at one point was being called the most disappointing team in the country. They have shed that label. They are now 10 and 6 in quadrant one in the first two quadrants, rather. Projected by Ken Palm to win Mo the SEC regular season title by multiple games. I've got Virginia at 18 and three and year one under Ryan Odom. Eight and three in the first two quadrants. They've won seven of their past eight. Strength of record is 14. And then I've actually got BYU Covenant as my last number four seed. Obviously they've been struggling a little bit lately, got beat at Allen Field House over the weekend, but still 17 and 4 and being led by AJ debon. So who would be a consensus first team all American at this point?

[Matt Norlander]

Okay, we agree on three of the four. Your final team in is my first team team out. Let's flash my final my final four seeds hip here. So I go Purdue. We're in the same spot. We have Virginia and Florida flipped. That is a classic Norlander loss. Volume has to count. Virginia is 18 and 3. Florida is 16 and 6. We'll dive into that more in a second and I have Texas Tech narrowly ahead of BYU both out of the Big 12 there. Let's hash through this stuff relatively quickly. Purdue is ninth by the way in resume based metrics on average two big at home, two really good teams. Iowa State ran him out of the gym which was problematic but has beaten BAM on the road. Tech on a neutral. Auburn in Indiana at Wisconsin, at usc. Problem for Purdue right now it's got a good record. It's got 10 quad three and quad four games. That's like the second or third most of any team in the discussion for a 1, 2, 3 or see. Gonzaga has more but there's not that many teams with more games there. Virginia 18 and 3. I love that you had them in there with room to spare. GP 4 and 2 in quad 1, 8 and 3 in Q1 Q2 overall 14th in resume based metrics on average has won road games at Texas, at Louisville, at NC State. It's enough for me the loss is Butler at Virginia Tech and 3 OT vs North Carolina. I think Virginia with that record and with the resume based metrics it is not negotiable that is a top four seed right now. Ryan Odom has done an outstanding job immediately in year one in Charlottesville. Now I've got Florida at 16 and six there. The biggest reason why I didn't have Florida higher GP was the three loss difference. Did you realize it's four and five in quad squad, one sub 500 right now in Q1 games. Now it's got wins over Bama at Vandy versus Tennessee. It's come on late. Florida is performing like one of the seven or eight best teams in the country. But in totality I don't have them right now in the top 15. You know, relatively speaking when it comes to or top 14 I guess they were literally 15th overall in my seat hierarchy. And then let's hash through this quick. I've got Texas Tech 16 and 6 and the biggest reason why, if you had to guess why do you think I've got Texas Tech in instead of byu?

[Gary Parrish]

Injuries have contributed to some of the loss column.

[Matt Norlander]

It is the win over Duke. Duke's only loss one seed came to Texas Tech. Injuries you can actually factor in as well. There's a lot of splitting hairs and BYU does not have a win nearly as good as Texas Tech which has multiple. Texas Tech has also defeated Houston. So you've got two teams in the top five or six overall. Tech has done that. BYU doesn't have heft at the top of the schedule. That was the splitting difference for me.

[Gary Parrish]

I this time yesterday had Texas Tech as my last number four seed. I flipped them with BYU after Texas Tech lost to Kansas on Monday night. But I believe if we add it all up top four seeds, we each have 16 teams. We agree on 15 of the 16 and for both of us, the team team that I have that you don't, you have at 17th and the team that you have that I don't, I have 17th. So we're pretty like minded when it comes to this stuff. It seems like we are.

[Matt Norlander]

And I will also add this because I know this video gets dropped into YouTube and there will inevitably be comment sections. I did not take into that much stock the fact that Texas Tech has defeated BYU head to head. Texas Tech got the benefit of having that game on its home floor. Those teams will return and play each other to wrap the regular season, so we'll have more on that evaluation as well. My big takeaway here as we wrap the show to GP I continue to be extremely impressed with the depth at the top of the sport. We have so many viable, I'm talking double digit teams that I think are capable of winning six in the NCAA Tournament. I think that is evidenced by not just the record but the resume so far of teams on the one line and the two line and the three line. And when you get to that four line and you see the likes of Florida sitting there and Purdue sitting there, I still think those teams are capable of winning six in the tournament. It's been an awesome year and I can't wait for the next six weeks stretch as we lead towards Selection Sunday.

[Gary Parrish]

Yeah, I echo all of that. I know sometimes, particularly on a podcast, you can get bogged down with conversations about court cases and temporary injunctions and eligibility waivers and all of that stuff that creates headline more often than I think any of us wish they would exist. But if you just focus on the games, man, the players.

[Matt Norlander]

Whoo.

[Gary Parrish]

It's been an incredible season of college basketball and hopefully this exercise was a way to illustrate that that's a show Shouts to Devin Downey. Shouts to Chester, S.C. shouts to Terry Teagle legend Huck Larnell. Thank you guys once again for watching the I Own College Basketball podcast. If you're not subscribed, please go subscribe anywhere you subscribe to podcasts like Apple and Spotify. There's more of us than there are of them. That's got to be reflected in the comments. Comments. So please go do that. And we're going to talk to you again next Tuesday. Till then, Paramount Podcasts.

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