← Eye On College Basketball
Eye On College Basketball
EOCBB on CBSSN: Is Duke’s season a failure without a F4? Picking the Power Five conference tourneys; the 25 biggest stars in men’s CBB since 2000
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- [00:00]
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- [00:32]
Matt Norlander
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- [02:11]
Gary Parrish
Hey there Gary Parish. Welcome back to the Ion College Basketball Podcast here on CBS Sports Network where we sometimes discuss camel fighting. Dodoberg and Leaky Black. Matt Norlander is here with me and we're both going to be here for the next hour discussing the biggest stories in the sport just five days away from Selection Sunday. If you don't mind, let's start with Duke because John Shire's Blue Devils moved to number one in the NAP poll on Monday, replacing Auburn, which you might have heard is on a two game losing streak. I obviously disagree with this. You know that if you follow the top 25 of 1. But I do understand it, Norlander, because right now Auburn still clearly has the best resume in the sport and almost certainly is going to have that on Selection Sunday. But duke is number one in the net, number one at Kim Pong, number one@bartcorvik.com and they're also the favorite in the betting market to win the 2025 NCAA tournament. Let me ask you this. Do you think there's a scenario where even if Auburn were to win out, or let's say Auburn were to lose in the SEC tournament title game or semifinals, do you think there's a scenario where Duke can actually pass them and be the number one overall seat on Selection Sunday? What would prevent the selection committee from just saying resume stuff is resume stuff, but we think this is the best team in the country. We're going to see them that way.
- [03:34]
Matt Norlander
That I'm sure is a conversation that will happen. But for, for your setup gp we're saying Auburn wins at least one SEC tournament game, right?
- [03:41]
Gary Parrish
Yeah, let's say that because I do think it's possible, if not likely at this point that if Auburn enters the NCAA tournament on the three game losing streak and Duke wins the ACC tournament, I think it becomes very easy, particularly when you factor in the head to head matchup played earlier this season. I think it's easy there for the committee to move Duke ahead of Auburn if they don't already have them there. My question is more if Auburn doesn't go on a three game losing streak is what prevents the committee from just saying, we think it's Duke. We understand that they can't match them win for win, but that's because they play in the ACC as opposed to the sec. And we're not going to hold a lackluster ACC against an undeniably great Duke program.
- [04:25]
Matt Norlander
Well, if that. Let's just say that if that happens. All right, if that happens, I wouldn't really be that much in arms. Up in arms about it. Um, you know, Duke being the number one overall seat, Auburn will be on the other side of the bracket. Duke would be fed into the Newark region. Auburn would be fed into the Atlanta region. Regional, I should say specifically. So for those purposes, I don't think it much matters. I think there's a point of pride of having the number one overall seed. But if the committee, if we do get to that point, I don't you and I agree. We think Auburn's gonna be the number one overall seat. I actually think Auburn's gonna play really well in the SEC tournament and remind a lot of people of why it was at the top of the sport for the majority of the season. But for the purposes of the conversation, let's say that doesn't happen. And if the committee does use the reasoning that you're putting on the table, then I tell you what, I sure would love to see that represented elsewhere in the bracket. So if they're going to not hold the ACC against Duke and say it's good on its own terms according to the metrics, then I want to see UC San Diego rewarded for the same thing. I want to see Drake have a seed that is more correspondent with how dominant it has been than say an 11 seed and certainly not a 12. And you can pick a couple other schools where that could be applicable as well. So if they did it, I wouldn't object. I don't want to have contradictory results though, and have it be true of Duke but not of other schools.
- [05:47]
Gary Parrish
Let's talk a little bit more about Duke more broadly. This is a team that I think you and I agreed in the preseason had the most talented roster in the sport in terms of potential first round draft picks. All of that stuff just in the ways most people define talent. Duke obviously had it, but Duke had mostly young talent in a time where other coaches throughout the sport were telling us you got to be old, not young. Here goes John Shire recruiting high school players and yes, got into the portal as well. But he's starting three freshmen in a time where successful coaches said that's probably not the way to do it. And he has a team that's ranked number one in the AP poll right now. Does that say anything about John Schier to you? Anything about the state of the game to you? Or is it as simple as. Well, in theory you don't want to rely too heavily on high school players, but if they happen to be three projected lottery picks, then it might be okay.
- [06:40]
Matt Norlander
I think the way that Duke is built and operates is largely runs exception to the rule with the rest of the sport. I do remember a year ago at or I guess after the conference tournament stuff, Shire got asked about this. I think it was a year ago, maybe two years ago and and I remember talking to him afterward one on one, and he basically said, like, do you expect me, like, I'm not going to not recruit, you know, three or four of the best high school players in the country if they want to come to Duke, that's not going to happen. Like I'm going to do that. And completely understandable. So I, you know, he is, he is bucking expectation just a little bit, even with that amount of talent. The impressive thing about Duke that I don't think has been quite talked about enough though is when you look at the Blue Devils roster, yes, there are some young guys and there are older guys too. But Flag Con Canipple Seon James, a transfer. Come on. Malawatch, a freshman. Isaiah Evans, a freshman. Mason Gillis, obviously by way of Purdue. Malik Brown, who is the most diverse defender and switchable defender that Duke has, comes by way of Syracuse. These are all players that did not play together last season. So it's not, it's not just that there is, you know, some predominant freshman. Oh, by the way, Flag is. Flag is pacing toward one of the five best freshman seasons we've ever seen in college basketball. So that is heavily part of the. What's going on here with Durham in Durham and everything like that. But it's how that Duke has been able to be this good with this many new pieces. He's actually done both. He's brought in a lot of freshman class that's. That's loaded. It's got, you know, three, four, five future NBA players on it. You know, Flags and be the number one pick. Knipple could go in the lottery. Malawatch might as well go in the lottery as well. But it's that and pulling from the portal and not knowing what's going to happen from here on out. Jay Lucas is off to Miami. He's not even in the locker room anymore. They've done a wonderful. Shire's done a wonderful job. And I'm not surp. I'm a little surprised they're this great. I'm not surprised. Knowing John, he's been with the program. He's. He is absolutely built and wired to be a head coach at a job with as much pressure at Duke in this age as really anyone like he. He's proven it. He was the right guy to succeed Mike Krzyzewski and he has pulled off a thing that I know has caught the attention and the respect of a lot of coaches in the sport because he has both brought in high profile talent, which sure great players that makes you look better but melded that with, you know, Mason Gillis wasn't one of the 20 most sought after transfers last season. Seon James was absolutely no. 1. Unless you follow two lane basketball. You did not know who Seon James was, okay? And he's brought on these guys and they've been key players and it's been, it's been pretty incredible to see Duke has the number two offense and the number four defense. Inefficiency, according to Ken Palm.
- [09:25]
Gary Parrish
One last thing on Duke, and I'm glad you used the word pressure because one of the things I've noticed about the coaching profession over the decades of doing this is that we always ask initial questions about coaches and then we come up with new sets of questions. Regardless of what happens, just there's always new questions. And so the initial question with John Scheier, as he is named at a relatively young age the successor of the greatest coach in college basketball history at what I believe is the biggest brand in college basketball presently, like, that's a, that's a monster of a job. He's given that opportunity and the initial question is, can he do it? First time head coach. A young first time head coach. He can obviously recruit, but can you do the job when you, as they say, move over six inches into the other chair? I think we have an answer to that now. He can. He's doing it. He has the number one team in the country. They were really good last season. He's been phenomenal as a head coach. So now what are going to be the questions? All right, but when's he going to a Final Four? Wednesday, one in the national championship. They were set up to do it last season and blew it. I mean, I don't want to say blew it, but you get the point. They were set up. Like you might go a long time before you ever find yourself in that advantageous of a situation to go to a Final Four and they, they didn't do it. Now he is going to enter this NCAA tournament as a 1 seed and possibly as the number one overall seed and probably as the favorite in the betting markets to win the 2025 NCAA tournament. If he comes short, comes up short, and you know, just probabilities probably will. Only one team can win this thing and it's hard to do. The most logical explanation for why didn't Duke win a national championship, if Duke doesn't win a national championship will simply be because it's hard to do. It'll be a lot of different reasons that have probably nothing to do with the Head coach. But I promise you, I've been doing this long enough to know if you are a significant favorite in the Elite Eight to go to a Final Four and blow it. And then the next year you're the favorite in the betting markets to win the whole thing and then bow out in the Sweet sixteen. That's when people start asking big questions about you. They won't be sensible questions, perhaps, but they'll still get asked. I think he's going to enter this thing with a lot of. A lot of real pressure. Not job pressure, but a lot of, okay, nice regular season. But if they don't take this thing, let's just say to San Antonio, people will accurately point out that in two straight seasons they were set up to get there and didn't get there either time.
- [12:07]
Matt Norlander
Yep. The expectation within that building within the fan base in general, Duke needs to minimally make the Final Four of the season is a disappointment. Some would go as so far as to say if this team that's been this good doesn't win the title, it's a disappointment. That's really not for me to evaluate because I'm not a Duke player or a Duke fan, but I think it is fair to say that this Duke team needs to win four in the NCAA tournament. Otherwise it is a, it is a failure and a pretty big failure. Overall, they've been extremely good. It is hard to make Final Four. Two things can be true at once. But this will be, this will be the team that is the most tracked, obviously, and followed in the tournament and what's going to be a great tournament and a lot of national title contenders. You've got the most famous player in the sport and flag, the future number one pick. We've seen what Duke has been able to do tearing through the ACC and a lot of people are waiting to see, okay, they actually going to do this in the tournament or people will be all too eager to say, ah, it's not, it's not so easy once you're outside the ACC anyway, a lot of people are going to be waiting on that and just waiting for Duke to fail. Maybe it'll happen, maybe it won't. I'm eager to see the road and how it develops for the Blue Devils starting next week.
- [13:09]
Gary Parrish
You'll hear all of that stuff. Let them lose in the Sweet 16 because a team got abnormally hot from three and shot 47% from beyond the arc. Just these statistical weird things that could cause you to lose to an inferior team in a single elimination tournament. It happens Literally every year. Let it happen to them in the sweet 16. And everything you just said will get said somewhere and written somewhere. Yeah, they beat up on the acc, but they were never really as good as the computer said that that'll get said. I don't even know if it'll be true. In fact, I don't think it'll be true. But it'll get said. Oh, nice regular season coach. I guess it's easy to get a bunch of wins when you're buying McDonald's all Americans and coaching against a Leonard Hamilton who just got pushed out and a Miami team that just pushed out its coach or whose coach resigned and who Virginia's got an interim coach. Congratulations. But you saw what happened when you got the NCAA tournament and you couldn't just beat up on the little acc. Like these are all things that will get said. Hey, one year you get beat in the NCAA tournament when you're supposed to advance to the Final Four. You get beat by a team that ain't ever supposed to beat you. And then the next year you're the betting favorite to win the whole thing and you couldn't even get to the Elite Eight. What does that say about you? It might not say anything, but it won't prevent people from talking and wondering. And these are the types of things that happen in coaching careers. Initially, people are just blown away that you're so good. You can get high seeds every year. But if you don't take those high seeds and march them where the seeds suggest you're supposed to be, then people start wondering if that's just what you are, the high seed coach in the regular season who can't do it in a single elimination tournament. At the end, as always, we'll see. But I do think John, given how successful this regular season has unfolded, he'll enter the NCAA tournament with a lot of pressure to, as you put it, at least and that's a weird thing to say to set the bar at least the Final Four. But that probably is reasonably where it's going to be for Duke, at least as it pertains to fans not questioning all sorts of things that may or may not deserve to be questioned. We come back, turn our attention to conference tournaments. Who's going to win the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, ACC. Two power conference tournaments get started today. One's already underway. We'll pick each power conference tournament winner and provide a secondary option as well. We'll do that Next. It's the ION college basketball podcast. We're on CBS Sports Network this bracket season, FanDuel is letting you make the call because right now new customers can get $200 in bonus bets. When your first $5 bet wins, that's 200 extra bucks to bet on everything from clutch shots to last second heartbreaks and even on who's cutting down the nets. If you've been waiting to join, there's no better time. There's tourney action almost every day and FanDuel has amazing bet types like spreads, totals, game props and so much more. Like if you believe in Auburn, make a play on the Tigers to cut nets in April. If you believe in Duke, make a play on the Blue Devils to cut nets in San Antonio. Lots of ways to get in on the action. Like I said earlier, no better time to join than now. So visit fanduel.com I and get in on the college hoops action.
- [16:13]
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- [17:35]
Gary Parrish
Welcome back to the I Own College basketball podcast, CBS Sports Network. Two power conference tournaments get started today. Big 12 just got underway. ACC starts at 2 Eastern. Norlander what I wanted to do with this B block is have us pick the winners of each power conference tournament. Problem is our picks have already Posted@cbssports.com and they are exactly the same. We are not independent thinkers, you and I. Based on our picks, we tend to like the best teams and nothing other than the best teams. So rather than just repeat each other, here's what we're going to do. We're going to take the five power conferences in the order that they're ranked in the net and we'll alternate starting with you. Give us who you think is going to win this tournament and then I'll give you an alternative pick given that you've just taken that pick off the board. So let's start in the SEC where yes, I would have picked Auburn, but I can't because you're picking Auburn and you're going first. Tell me why you got Bruce Pearl's Tigers on a two game losing streak winning three games in the SEC tournament.
- [18:38]
Matt Norlander
Well, I said this on the Sunday episode of the Pod. I think Auburn's got a really good chance at making a big push. I tell you what, I will say this real quick. I can't. I almost feel like Alabama's got a real, real healthy chance to go on a roll here. But I just like, I like the Tigers to respond heavily and well and get it done and to make a dominant push and enter into the tournament like Janiyah Broom plays well but not just him. I mean they've got such a deep team too. Denver Jones can get a little bit healthier as well. Chad Baker Mazara if he can get not kicked out of games. I just, I'm going to bank on that program taking the SEC tournament extremely seriously and, and not strutting to the title. But my guess is they've got three games to play. If they, if they advance to the title game, I'll say two of the three they win pretty convincingly and maybe in one of the three they find themselves with the game in doubt with like a minute to go. I think we'll, we'll look up and be like after the tournaments. Is there any team playing better than Auburn right now? That's my guess.
- [19:48]
Gary Parrish
I don't love the two game losing streak, but it doesn't bother me as much as it's just surprising. It's just something I didn't expect to happen. But the truth is, and Bruce Pearl talked about this after the loss last Tuesday at Texas A and M, once you secure the Outright SEC title and everybody with a podcast is yelling that you've already locked up the number one overall seed in the NCAA tournament. It is human nature to just kind of lose focus a little bit. So then they go down to Texas A and M. They play a team that's good, ranked in the top 10 at one point this season, really needed a win. They were on a four game losing streak at the time that was just set up for them to get caught. So much so that on the Sunday episode before that Tuesday night game, I did a whole little bit about how, I'm telling you, it's set up for them to get caught so they lost whatever and then they came home. And you're supposed to bounce back on Senior Day and not have denied broom go out on the wrong side of things. But it was a two point loss in overtime to a possible number one seed. It's not the worst thing in the world. It's not great. But anytime a game's in overtime, by definition at some point in that first 40 minutes, you're one shot or one stop away from ending it in regulation. It's not like they just got blown out in back to back games. They lost a game they didn't care about and then lost an overtime game to an in state rival. That is also awesome. I would also pick Auburn to win the SEC tournament. It's why I believe or it's on the list of reasons I believe Auburn will be the number one overall seed in the NCAA tournament. And if I can't take them and I got to give you an alternative option, there's a lot of good ones in this league. Florida, Tennessee, Alabama. Can I go with Texas A and M? Texas A and M just beat Auburn last week now on a two game winning streak. They just got experienced guards. I just, I didn't want to go with the Florida Alabama. I didn't want to go with any potential number one seed as an alternative choice to Auburn. So I will go with Texas A M, Bud Williams and the fourth version of Wade Taylor. Let's go to the Big Ten. I'll pick the winner. You pick the same one as I did. We both went with the top seed Michigan State that it's still in contingent for a number one seed in the NCAA tournament. If you can't pick Michigan State to win the Big Ten, who would you take instead?
- [22:03]
Matt Norlander
I did not pick Michigan State. So if it is represented on the site that I pick Michigan State, that is not what I sent in. I have Purdue winning the Big Ten tournament I'm going to go with Braden Smith to have one of those. I think Braden Smith in the, in the tournaments before the big tournament. GP I like him to really emerge and and and star in some games here on on CBS over this upcoming weekend and guide Purdue. Big Ten Michigan State's been tremendous and if it won the Big Ten tournament I'm not going to be shocked. Michigan State's actually trying to play for a one seed but I actually think that the Boilermakers will be the team that emerges here. A lot of intriguing candidates in the Big Ten tournament overall. For those listening, just a reminder, Michigan State is the one, Maryland is the two, Michigan is the three, UCLA is the four, Purdue is the six behind Wisconsin as the five. So I have Purdue beating the winner of usc, Rutgers beating Michigan, then likely probably beating Maryland and then beating whatever team comes from the top half of the bracket. Could be Michigan State, could be Wisconsin, could be ucla but give me the Boilers.
- [23:01]
Gary Parrish
I the graphic I saw had you taking Michigan State. If it's incorrect I apologize. My alternative pick to the Spartans would be Maryland seven and one in the past eight they've got the five star freshman one and done likely first round pick in Derek Queen. Kevin Willard's done a terrific job with that team this season. If I couldn't take Michigan State I would take Maryland. Let's go to the Big 12 where I believe, I believe we both took the same team. Who would you pick to win the Big 12 tournament?
- [23:28]
Matt Norlander
I'm taking Texas Tech to win the Big 12 title which I don't know if you're with me on that but I sent in Texas Tech to win the Big 12. J.T. toppin has been a borderline first team all American and Grant McCaslin has done, I won't say he's quietly done a really good job. I think they've gotten enough I think they've got maybe if not enough do enough good do seventh overall in Ken Palm. This has been a top 10 offense Toppins been amazing. Darian Williams has been a really good player. I said on the Sunday show I think think that there is going to be something something wonky is going to go down in the Big 12 bracket. I'm going to, I'm going to take Texas Tech to emerge it's the two seed and by doing so we'll probably beat Arizona. Could be Kansas on the bottom half. Give me Texas Tech over Houston in the title game.
- [24:13]
Gary Parrish
You might need to talk to a graphic person@cbssports.com because just to confirm I Wasn't crazy last night. Looking at these graphics on CBSSports.com, you have picked Michigan State and Houston to win their conference tournaments.
- [24:29]
Matt Norlander
I might need to send in a note because those are not the picks that I sent in.
- [24:33]
Gary Parrish
Well, I'm sure it can be fixed.
- [24:37]
Matt Norlander
It can be fixed through the quickness. I actually love how this segment's going. Now tell me the next team that I picked to win tournaments.
- [24:44]
Gary Parrish
I can tell me the next one.
- [24:46]
Matt Norlander
Tell me what I did.
- [24:48]
Gary Parrish
I could tell you what the graphic says. I have no idea what you actually pick, but I'm confident that I'm in my ability to read graphics. Even on a Monday night. Even on a Monday night in the Big 12. It says you picked. It says you picked Houston.
- [25:05]
Matt Norlander
I did not.
- [25:06]
Gary Parrish
You. You picked Texas Tech. I did pick Houston. Texas Tech would have been my alternative pick. Let's go to the Big east where it says on a graphic that you picked St. John's to win the tournament. Can you confirm or deny. Are you being serious right now?
- [25:22]
Matt Norlander
I picked Yukon. I'm not. I'm being serious. GP I picked Yukon to win the Big east tournament.
- [25:31]
Gary Parrish
Like I'm looking at it. How is everyone to tell you? I. I got you. I got Cal. Boom. Picking Yukon. Cameron Salerno picking Yukon. Me and you pick SA Johns. According to the graphic. There's nothing.
- [25:47]
Matt Norlander
I mean, what the hell? I guess just give me St. John's I mean, who am I to say? What do I even know? What am I even doing? I'm sure. What. Okay, just. I got St. John's okay.
- [25:56]
Gary Parrish
I took St. John's my alternative pick would have been UConn. Let's go to the ACC and get out of this as quickly as possible. Who did you pick to win the acc? Let's see.
- [26:06]
Matt Norlander
We're good here.
- [26:07]
Gary Parrish
I got CBS Sports Tech. Okay.
- [26:09]
Matt Norlander
I got. Actually, no, actually, surprise. Wake Forest. No, I have Duke. I have Duke winning the ACC tournament. I would. I do think that Duke is going to get caught with at least one close game. For our listeners, the refresher here on the ACC. Duke is the 1. Louisville and Clemson are the 2 and 3 at the bottom half. Wake is the 4. Carolina is the 5. Carolina will need to beat North. North Dakota, Notre Dame. Oh, television viewers, if you want the pod, this is the pod. Notre Dame or Pitt will go on to play North Carolina, which will then have to be North Dakota and either Notre Dame or Pitt and then Wake Forest and then beat Duke to have a chance to get into the tournament. I think Duke will catch a close game somewhere. I do. I do think that. I think Duke will have a game where it win by single digits in the ACC tournament. But I know we agree we got the Blue Devils cutting down the nets if indeed they decide to do that when this tournament is played in Charlotte later this weekend.
- [26:56]
Gary Parrish
It's actually a smart approach by you. I also took Duke, by the way. My alternative pick would be Louisville. This is actually brilliant by you. People rarely, rarely point out the things you're right about. You have to do that yourself. You have to do that yourself. But they love to point out the stuff you're wrong about. Why not give yourself two chances to be right so that you can then point it out yourself? So I think it's brilliant what you're doing here. Big 12 tournament according to CBS sports.com youm got Houston winning the whole thing. Come over here. CBS Sports Network. You'll go with Texas Tech. You guys, you got two darts to throw. I didn't know we were. I didn't know we were allowed to do that. I thought we had to be consistent from one place to the next, but nope, nope.
- [27:37]
Matt Norlander
Come on into my world. It's called 40 chest. Let's go.
- [27:41]
Gary Parrish
You learn as you go. We'll get those graphics fixed. Perhaps just as soon as we get done with this. When we come back, more conference automatic bids are going to be delivered tonight. And probably the most notable one will happen out in Las Vegas. It's the West Coast Conference Tournament championship game. Once again, per usual, it is St. Mary's against Gonzaga. We'll preview that next. The Ion College Basketball Podcast at the.
- [28:04]
Matt Norlander
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- [28:40]
Gary Parrish
CBS Sports Network. Welcome back to the I Own College Basketball podcast, CBS Sports Network. The West Coast Conference tournament title game is tonight for the fourth consecutive year and the sixth time in seven years. It will be Gonzaga against St. Mary's we're going to do it out in Las Vegas. Tip off a little after 9 o'clock Eastern. Norlander let's talk about Gonzaga because interesting case here. This is a big brand proud program, a lot of streaks intact, currently sitting at eighth in the net rankings, eighth in the country, but just a nine seat in the bracket according to Jerry Palm. Nobody else has that big of a discrepancy between where the predictive metrics would have them and where the so called bracketologists would have them. For folks who might not be able to make sense of that, explain the discrepancy between Gonzaga's computer numbers and Gonzaga's projected seed.
- [29:32]
Matt Norlander
No doubt the only other team that is like this but it's on the flip side is Memphis, which has really good resume metrics but the predictives are not good. So Memphis is the inverse of Gonzaga. I'm interested to see where those teams eventually land in the bracket. Overall. I can't remember a team I'm sure it's happened Parish in the relative neighborhood of this, but we're talking about a team that has a wins above bubble of 41. Gonzaga strength of record is 2545. Their KPI which is all resume based that's 29. But all the predictives net is a predictive metric. Ken Palm, Torvik, they're number nine overall. You don't get this that often. Gonzaga will have the situation where it will wind up being seated much lower than what its resume has produced and it induces a very interesting conversation which is not new. We don't get it every year, but we do get it frequently. Usually it's with a typical mid major where if you want to have if you want to have integrity about how you see the field and say here's what this team has done against its resume. I think largely speaking that's what the committee tries to do. However Gonzaga it might be one of GP's go to computer trickers. I'm going to ask them that in about 40 seconds here, but it isn't. It is notable that this this program has been able to maintain a top 10 ish status in predictive metrics all season long. But if that is the case, and even if you don't want to say it's that good, even if you want to say that's inflated just a little bit and say Gonzaga is like the 16th or 17th or 18th best team, if you want to downplay them just a little bit, there's still not going to be seated course in correspondence with what they've done against their resume. And that's not even knowing if Gonzaga will beat St. Mary's tonight. If it loses St. Mary's some of that stuff's going to get knocked down just a little bit. If it beats Saint Mary's. Hello, it's going to get knocked up just a little bit, bumped up a little bit more overall. So I don't have an issue necessarily with where Gonzaga is seated. I do think that if it winds up in the 89 game somewhere, it is going to be super duper compelling because the idea of GONZAGA Facing potentially a 1 seed in the second round is Paris, that's just, that's just tasty as hell. I'll be. I'll be honest. That's. That is a tasty matchup. But this is a Gonzaga team that has not racked up a lot of notable wins over projected tournament teams. So it does enter this NCAA tournament with a reputation as a program, but as a team this season. Still a little bit kind of a mystery of like how good is this group and can it keep that Sweet 16 run going? If it does, if it does it this year, that will be 10 tournaments in a row.
- [32:13]
Gary Parrish
Just as you're talking through it, it sort of occurs to me that if the Zags were to lose tonight and Memphis were to lose in the AAC tournament, both of those programs could find themselves in the 89 game, perhaps against each other, more likely just based off the numbers separately. But there could be a scenario where one seeds are being asked to play Gonzaga in Memphis in the second round. Like Memphis is 6 and 1 in quadrant one with a victory over the outright Big Ten champs. Like Memphis is good. They got high major guards and high major bigs. Like they're in a terrible league, but that's a high major roster. But based on computer numbers, if they get called the AAC tournament, they're at risk of being in that 8, 9 game. Gonzaga based on the resume, is at risk of ending up in the 89 game. And that could be a nightmare or at least something possibly inconvenient for, for a one seed here or there. The thing that is interesting about this is I hear people talk about the predictive metrics, the net rankings, kinpom, all this stuff. Then I hear people talk about the brackets and the seeds and then they push all this stuff together and act like they're highlighting something like, see how stupid this is. Gonzaga's top 10 in this and not even a top eight seed over here. See it? These things are Completely different, doing completely different things. Jerry Palm is doesn't care how many blowout wins you have as much as he's just looking at a resume and trying to put a number next to your name that makes sense relative to how he knows the committee is going to do it. And then the predictive stuff is the predictive stuff. But if you try to figure out like exactly how this happened, there's a variety of reasons, but here's part of it. Gonzaga has won 24 games this season. Do you know how many double digit wins they have? Trivia time?
- [34:04]
Matt Norlander
I'm gonna say 20.
- [34:06]
Gary Parrish
21.
- [34:08]
Matt Norlander
Yeah.
- [34:08]
Gary Parrish
21 of their 24 wins are double digit victories. They have eight losses. That's a lot. That's why they're projected as a nine seed. They've got a lot of losses against this schedule. The losses come by an average of 5.1 points, none of them by more than 8 points. So they have a lot of losses, but they're all close. They've got very few wins that are good, but they've got 21 double digit wins. So the efficiency numbers are good. That's how you get top 10 here and there in the computers. But the resume is lacking. If Baylor does it make the NCAA tournament, it's possible the Zags could go into the NCAA tournament with zero wins over teams that got at large bits. And the Baylor win, which is their big one, it happened on the opening night of the season. They have done nothing of substance in a long time. And I'm with you. It'll be fascinating to see where they're seated because I think it matters to them more than most. Big picture. Here's why they've been in 9th Street Sweet 16s. They're trying to make it 10 straight. That is so much easier to do as a six seed or a seven seed than it is as an eight seat or a nine seed. What if the path to you getting to your 10th straight sweet 16 involves you having to beat Auburn or Houston or or Duke in the round of 32 as opposed to, I don't know, Iowa State or I don't want to be dismissive of any other teams but there's a drop off and I would rather, I wouldn't want to have to extend my Sweet 16 streak by beating Auburn or Duke. I'd want to take a different path there. And the problem is if you know, Gonzaga, I think win or lose tonight is at risk of that on some level.
- [35:40]
Matt Norlander
Let's make the prediction. Well, first Gonzaga win or lose tonight.
- [35:43]
Gary Parrish
Well how about this? It shouldn't be surprising just based off of the computer numbers We've discussed, but St. Mary's is the 1 seed. St. Mary's is the ranked team. St. Mary's is 2 and O against Gonzaga this year and a 3 1/2 point underdog tonight to the Zags. The Zags are favorite.
- [36:00]
Matt Norlander
How about that? Also I think, I believe I didn't double check. I think Gonzaga's been in every I think listeners or viewers find me, correct me if I'm wrong, I don't think Gonzaga has missed a WCC final I think since 97, which is of course insane. Now granted over the past decade plus the WCC has done has done the stepladder bracket and that's obviously helped Gonzaga's case for this because they've just been auto placed into the semis but still it's just, it's just nuts, you know, truly like clockwork. Like your taxes. Every single year Gonzaga in the WCC title game and most years it's St. Mary's as well. Same areas 12 this year. It's rare. I want to say the gales maybe have one year ever where they went 30 against the A good ball club. I will say I'll do the prediction here. I'll say St. Mary's beats Gonzaga and we do this in the preseason every year. We we guess if Gonzaga's Sweet 16 run is going to continue. I remember specifically back in early November we both said we thought that Gonzaga was going to do it again and get to 10. But I will say no because I think it's just going to hit. It's going to hit a team that's too difficult to beat in the second round. And so the Sweet 16 run, which nine tournaments in a row getting to the second weekend, it's tied for the second or third longest streak ever. Carolina's got the best. I'll say no. What about you?
- [37:20]
Gary Parrish
I'll agree with you. Well, I'll take St. Mary's to win the game or at least cover the three and a half. They've been the better team literally all season. I'm going to take them to beat the Zags for a third time, although I'm hoping for a competitive game and I like you think, I just think the Zags are going to maybe run into a first round of appointment they can't deal with. But in that second round, particularly if they're in that 89 game, they run into a monster. I think the Sweet 16 streak ends ends this season. But I've been wrong before. When we come back, Norlander had an interesting project that published today at CBSSports.com I hope the graphics are correct. I hope the graphics on that one are correct.
- [37:59]
Matt Norlander
They are. I can vouch they're correct.
- [38:02]
Gary Parrish
The top 25 like the biggest stars of college basketball this century. He started the list with Zion Williamson. I'll ask him why next, the I Own College Basketball podcast. We're on CBS Sports Network. Everybody needs flip flops for the warm months. But not just any flip flops. You need nice flip flops, comfortable flip flops. Flip flops that won't destroy your big toe while you're trying to break them in. And that's why the flip flops I own are Hari Mari. Hari Mari makes comfortable colorful premium flip flops with their patented memory foam toe that completely eliminates that break in period. Their classic rubber dunes for men and women come in tons of colorways that are the perfect casual shoe for days wandering around your favorite city. And their water friendly leather clippers. Yes, water friendly leather are an elevated option for pool, boat or beach days. And considering pool, boat and beach days are just right around the corner, it's time for you to get like me and get you a pair of Hari Mari flip flops. Shop harimari.com today where every day is the destination. That's H A R I M A R I.com welcome back to the Outheel and College Basketball Podcast. I'm Gary Parrish. That's Matt Norlander. And Matt Norlander had an interesting project published CBSSports.com earlier today. The project is this basically top 25 college basketball stars this century. So don't take me back to no 1900s. We ain't doing that this century. And you started the list with Zion Williamson, the one and done star at Duke. Why did the list start with Zion Williams?
- [39:31]
Matt Norlander
I will tell you in just a second. Just a couple things. This is men's college basketball. If I was doing all of college basketball, frankly, it would probably go Zion 1 Caitlin Clark 2 I think what Caitlin Clark did for four years registers as the second most impactful famous person. Maybe even you can make the case for number one. I would actually buy that, but I cover men's college basketball. So this is only men's college basketball. If you played in the 1990s at all, you did not qualify. You had to start your college basketball career in the year 2000. So guys who would have been no brainers like Shane Battier and Jason, now Jay Williams, they weren't on the list there. And if you are active, you know, there are a couple reasons why I did this piece, but one of them was getting to thinking about Cooper Flag in the middle of the season. And right now Cooper Flag I think is top 10 ish status. But his story is not done. And frankly, how far Duke goes in the tournament and how well Flag plays or doesn't play in the tournament actually will determine and dictate where he would end on such a list. So if you're active in college basketball, your story has not finished, therefore you're not eligible. Zion Williamson to me is the most famous player to play college basketball in this century. You just saw the top 10 if you're watching there on CBS, CBS Sports Network. He got Barack Obama to come to his games. He was at the biggest brand in college basketball. His game was electric. His name a flashy name, huge charismatic smile, the combination of athleticism, power. We really truly had not seen a guy like him. Like how about this, My list starts at 25 with Blake Griffin at Oklahoma. Zion Williamson was like 18 more of what Blake Griffin was. And Blake Griffin was incredible and a national player of the year. Zion Williamson, one of only three freshmen to win national player of the Year. It was not particularly close and in fact I think it speaks to his wattage that while I was my top three were were in consideration. Zion did not need to win a national title to do this. He didn't need to make a final four. And again, this is star power. This is not statistical accomplishments. Yes, if you put up big stats, if you're national player of the year, that helps you. This is pure level of fame and household name, you know, appeal that you had while strictly in college. I didn't take NBA draft stock into account where you went when you got picked. It was none of that. So Zion was one. He narrowly beat out Tyler Hansbrough, a four year consistently relevant player who didn't have this huge personality. But Hansbrough was a beast and one of the best players of all time playing at North Carolina. And then JJ Redick is third on the list. Those are the only three that I really consider to be the most famous men's college basketball player since we flipped the calendar to the to 2000. But, but for the audio folks that are listening to this after it's on TV, I'll just run you down the top 10 that I want GPS. I want him to, to to take me to task here on what he disagrees with. Adam Morrison is 4. Carmelo Anthony is 5. Kevin Durant is 6, Joakim Noah is 7. One back to back titles, it was a big deal. Stephen Curry was 8, Jimmer for debt was 9. And then Kemba Walker is number 10. What do you like, what do you not like? Who should have been on the list that wasn't? I want all of it from.
- [42:37]
Gary Parrish
I think I'd have Kimba a little higher. Given that what he did in the Big east tournament and that NCAA tournament is like all time legendary stuff. He became like a one name superstar of college basketball. I'd have him a little higher. I've got no issue with Zion at the top. I do think if you incorporated women, I would probably have Caitlin Clark at the top of the list. She changed a sport. I mean she made people who didn't even know women's college basketball existed say, I can't wait to watch this game. She was a monster and still is. Obviously I think she's the most famous college basketball player of the past 25 years. Men or women, but strictly men. Zion's probably the right answer. The only counter argument I'd go with is maybe Tyler Hansborough. Just because you got four years of super, super famous college basketball player at Big Brand, national player of the year, all of that stuff. I am glad you had Adam Morrison in the top five. If you didn't live through it, you might not remember it, but that 2005, 2006 season with the Zags where he showed up in Maui, long hair, mustache and bawled out three consecutive days, he really became a rock star of college basketball. I was a beat writer then at the Commercial Appeal newspaper covering John Caliperi's Memphis teams. And that season they had a non league game against Gonzaga inside FedEx forum. And December 27th, it was after Maui and I just remember Adam Morrison coming in here and it felt like Michael Jordan was coming in here. It felt like LeBron James was coming in here. This is a city where NBA players come through. And I just remember that the build up to that. It felt like a real rock star was coming to downtown Memphis. Like you would, you would hear things like, hey, I just saw Adam Morrison at the Rendezvous. Like people would tell, like wherever you could post stuff like that, they would post things like that. And he was just a, a big time star in the sport. Had the player of the year race with J.J. redick. He belongs in the top five. It's a fun list. If you haven't seen it yet, you can find it. It's over@cbssports.com 25 biggest stars, college basketball of this century. When we come back, we got more automatic bids going out tonight. In addition to the WCC tournament, we'll run you through the other places where somebody's going to be able to make a dream come through tonight. We'll do that next. It's the Allen College Basketball Podcast. We're on CBS Sports Network.
- [45:09]
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- [45:40]
Gary Parrish
Welcome back to the Ion College Basketball Podcast. Just a few more minutes left. Obviously the WCC tournament title game, that's tonight. That is the highest profile of the conference tournament championship games that'll take place. But we do have three others. Northeast Conference title game, St. Francis, Pennsylvania against Central Connecticut, Horizon League tournament title game, Youngstown State against Robert Morris, and then the CAA title game at 7:00 Eastern on CBS Sports Network. That's Delaware against UNC. Wilmington. I know which one I'm watching the one on CBS Sports. Which one you watching?
- [46:15]
Matt Norlander
I'm watching all of them. Well, I literally will be watching one of them in person. I'm gonna drive up. I'm driving up to hard hitting New Britain. I'm gonna go see the NAC championship game. Same for Red Flashes against Blue Devils. Big time stuff there. And as an alum of the Connecticut State University system, I didn't go to Central. I feel like I'm obligated to be there. It's been a long time since a program like this has been able to host a game like this. Central Connecticut last made the NCAA tournament and 2007. I'm looking forward to seeing that. Pat Sellers is the coach there now. Howie Dick there. Go ahead.
- [46:47]
Gary Parrish
Do you consider them your rival? Do you consider Patrick Sellers your rival?
- [46:50]
Matt Norlander
No, I went to a division, I went to Western Connecticut. I was a Division 3 guy. So no, not my, not my rival. No. I did go to a couple parties at Central back in the day. Had some buddies that went there, but not, not my, not my, not my rival. Okay, elsewhere, CAA championship. How about Mike Bray taking the trip up to dc. Mike Bray is now an assistant with the Atlanta Haw, but Martin Inglesby is his longtime assistant. He's got the 12 seat Delaware Fighting Blue Hens going up in that CA championship game against the Seahawks. Just great mascot battles by the way. GP that's an intriguing one. Both those programs have been to the NCAAs relatively recently, but man oh man, every year we get at least one of these low seeded teams in these low major mid major tournaments that just wrecks havoc and makes a title game and gets the auto bid. It could well be Delaware. And then for the other one, Robert Morris is coached by Andy Tool who has been there a while, got that job when he was in his late 20s, hasn't broken through. Youngstown State's on the other side of that. Youngstown State has never made the NCAA tournament. They're the Penguins again. Incredible mascots and monikers going down for auto bids on Tuesday night. But yeah, Bobby Moe and and Andy Tool trying to get there. He got them to the tournament in 2015. It was the only time he had a good team in 2020. We'll see what goes down. The Horizon League final has a history of being pretty compelling. Three more bids which will bring us to 10 out of 68 accounted for by the end of Tuesday night.
- [48:14]
Gary Parrish
Nights like tonight are awesome. I'm not somebody who tries to tell people anything's must watch TV or appointment television. There's no such real thing as appointment television with few exceptions like you'll live if you don't catch whatever game happens to be on. But on nights like tonight, you don't have to know anything about these teams, anything about these players, anything about these coaches. You just have to know that they are playing for a dream to come true. The stakes are so high. Whatever happens in the title game of the SEC tournament will not be as interesting as what happens in the title game of at least these three conference tournaments tonight. Because the WC is a little different. Win or lose, you're going to the NCAA tournament. St. Mary's in Gonzaga this you got three games, six teams. The winners advance to the bracket and the losers spend the rest of their lives wondering what they could have done differently to maybe get to the bracket. Fun night of television. Can't wait to experience it. Shout the Devin Downey shouts to Chesterton, South Carolina. Terry Teagle, Huck Larnell. Thank you guys for watching the Island College Basketball Podcast. We'll be back, CBS Sports Network. We'll see you next week.
- [49:25]
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Gary Parrish
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