Podcast
Eye On The Market
Hosted by Michael Cembalest · EN
Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets.
44episodes
Episodes
Newest firstAll episodes
Home Alone: inflation and the new Fed chair; investing in China’s AI ecosystem; Prediction markets
6d ago00:27:16Summary readyThe new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, like Kevin McCallister in Home Alone, faces a lonely vigil: survive until the adults get home again. The latest on inflation, rising Treasury yields, shrinking equity risk premia and pressure from the White House. Also: investing in China’s home-grown AI ecosystem, and the predation in prediction markets. Watch the video
SummaryAbandon Ship!
4w ago00:30:43Summary readyAbandon Ship! Topics: midterm elections, Spring thaw in US economic data, Strait of Hormuz oil rationing timeline, AI and data center update, Gulf State pipe dream, Congressional redistricting and Mythos update Summary: Despite improving US leading indicators and economic/stock market resilience, GOP House members are abandoning ship at a record pace. The midterm challenges for the GOP include declining blue-collar employment, soaring ACA premiums, a surge in commodity prices, rising inflation expectations and some unorthodox choices at the Department of Justice. Watch the video
SummarySalem’s Lot: Gulf War update; the Purge of senior US military officers; a US fossil fuel reliance fever dream
Apr 600:18:17Summary readySalem’s Lot: an update on the Gulf War. Topics include international commodity price pass-throughs to the US, the limits of energy independence, Gulf temperatures and their relevance to US military options, the proposed Iranian toll on the Strait of Hormuz, the cost per payload of asymmetric warfare and our commodity price tracker. Also: the history of Presidential firings of senior US military officers, and a US fossil fuel reliance fever dream. Watch the video
SummaryFighting Words: The Energy Transition in 2026
Mar 300:39:43Summary readyFighting Words. This year we look at energy arguments, battles and debates: the impact of data centers on power prices, the cost of solar plus storage as baseload power, the “primary energy fallacy” that ignores waste heat, the true cost of small modular reactors, Germany’s decision to shut down nuclear, China’s dominance of renewable supply chains, solid oxide fuel cells as turbine alternatives, the materiality of demand response, staffing cuts at the EIA, the hype around geothermal and geologic hydrogen, the misplaced fascination with small country energy transitions, satellite vs factor-based oil & gas basin methane emissions, the mostly profitless EV industry, xAI mobile gas plant permits, negligible progress on carbon capture and renewable fuels, and the unfavorable economics of charging my Jeep Wrangler hybrid. Watch the video
SummarySupply and The Mam
Feb 500:25:16Summary readyNew York City now has one of the tightest housing markets since 1960. Watch the video
SummaryEye on the Market Outlook 2026: Smothering Heights
Jan 100:35:49Summary readyIn this year’s EOTM Outlook by Michael Cembalest, we focus on four risks: US power generation constraints, China on its own, Taiwan and hyperscaler profits. View video here
SummaryThe Deep End: 2025 Alternative Investments Review
Dec 200:35:32Summary readyOn the surface not much has changed since our last review two years ago. View video here
SummaryThe winter of our discontent: generative AI disrupts the entertainment industry content moat
Nov 500:23:57Summary readyWhile the prior decade was defined by disruption in content distribution, the next decade will be defined by disruption in content creation, augmented by generative AI. This month’s Eye on the Market looks at the rapidly shifting fortunes in legacy cable/broadcast shares vs streaming, the rise of social media as a platform for consuming all forms of content, rising acceptance of user-generated content and the increasing democratization of text-to-video tools used to create it, the value of the legacy content moat in film/tv libraries and the best movies of the 21st century (as ranked by me). View video here
SummaryMad Libs: just fill in the blanks
Oct 1600:21:06Summary readyMad Libs. This piece is not about how mad liberals are at the administration, although the latest polling data indicates that it could be. Instead, it’s a fill-in-the-blank exercise regarding the impact of tariffs and immigration policy on growth, the impact of Chinese critical mineral export restrictions, Oracle’s debt levels and borrowing capacity, central bank gold reserves and the gender balance of psychiatric medication. View video here
SummaryThe Blob: Capital, China, Chips, Chicago and Chilliwack
Sep 2400:27:07Summary readyIn this piece, we look at the AI and data center takeover, and the OpenAI-Oracle deal; the US government equity investment in Intel, the origins of TSMC and how many countries support national champions via industrial policy; efforts in China to reduce excess capacity and consequences for equity investors; crime and municipal solvency in Chicago and Illinois; how tight net new equity supply has been supporting US equity markets since 2011; and pictures from Chilliwack, Canada. View video here
Summary