Bluffing with Nate Silver

Summary

Fail Better with David Duchovny: Episode Summary – "Bluffing with Nate Silver"

Release Date: October 22, 2024

In this captivating episode of Fail Better, host David Duchovny engages in a profound conversation with actress and author Ellie Kemper about Nate Silver, renowned statistician, writer, and poker player. The episode delves deep into the interplay between risk, probability, and resilience, drawing intriguing parallels between political forecasting and the strategic nuances of poker.

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Introduction to Nate Silver's Methodology

David Duchovny initiates the discussion by highlighting Nate Silver's multifaceted career and his reputation for "probabilistic and statistical modeling" to understand complex phenomena such as elections and sports ([01:49]). Duchovny reflects on Silver's 2016 presidential election predictions, commending his approach for being "less wrong, less off than most of the other guys," which aligns seamlessly with the podcast's theme of failing better ([02:10]).

Notable Quote:

"He is a real smart guy and a guy who definitely cleaned me out at the poker table, so I've got things to learn from him." — David Duchovny ([02:15])

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Exploring "The River" vs. "The Village"

Ellie Kemper introduces concepts from her book, distinguishing between "The River" and "The Village." The River represents calculated risk-takers who are analytical, competitive, and individualistic, often thriving in high-stakes environments like venture capital or poker ([08:23]). In contrast, The Village encompasses those who prefer stability and traditional paths.

Notable Quote:

"The River is these people who are, like I said, calculated risk takers. And they have an overlap of two traits that don't often go together, one of which is they are very analytical." — Ellie Kemper ([09:02])

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Resilience Through Failure

The conversation shifts to the theme of failure and resilience. Duchovny and Kemper discuss how embracing failure can lead to growth and newfound purpose. Kemper shares personal experiences of feeling lost post-college and channeling her energy into various projects, including forecasting baseball players and learning poker ([12:54]).

Notable Quote:

"There's a lot of luck involved, whether you channel that into productive or destructive ways." — Ellie Kemper ([13:50])

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The Influence of Polling on Voter Behavior

Delving into Nate Silver's expertise, the discussion touches upon how polling impacts voter turnout and behavior. Kemper explains that closer races tend to increase voter participation as individuals perceive their votes as more consequential ([26:18]). This insight underscores the delicate balance pollsters must maintain to provide accurate forecasts without inadvertently swaying the electorate.

Notable Quote:

"People are actually pretty rational. They know that your vote is worth more in Pennsylvania than New York or California or Hawaii or whatever." — Ellie Kemper ([26:18])

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Strategic Forecasting and System Refinement

Kemper reflects on the challenges of refining polling models, especially in the wake of unexpected events like the 2016 election. She acknowledges the difficulty of admitting errors publicly and the tendency to become risk-averse after significant miscalculations ([24:31]).

Notable Quote:

"If you think this is an existential question, then you have to be strategic about it." — Ellie Kemper ([31:58])

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Managing Stress: Parallels Between Poker and Acting

A fascinating segment of the episode explores the similarities between poker players and actors in managing stress and maintaining composure under pressure. Both fields require a high tolerance for discomfort and the ability to perform consistently despite external pressures.

Notable Quotes:

"Poker is, you know, long stretches of boredom punctuated by moments of panic." — David Duchovny ([37:13])

"When you are on stage and you have stage fright, you just say the words that you know." — Ellie Kemper ([34:35])

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The Role of Randomization and Unpredictability

Kemper emphasizes the importance of randomization in both poker and acting to prevent predictability. She explains that unpredictability is key to maintaining an edge, whether it's through varying betting strategies in poker or improvising roles in acting.

Notable Quote:

"Randomization is a cat and mouse game where you're trying to stay one step ahead of people." — David Duchovny ([47:00])

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Conclusion: Embracing Outliers and Continuous Learning

As the conversation wraps up, Kemper and Duchovny discuss the significance of being an outlier in today’s world, especially in an era dominated by artificial intelligence and data-driven strategies. Kemper advocates for differentiation and specialization as means to thrive, while Duchovny appreciates the depth and personal growth sparked by embracing failure and randomness.

Notable Quote:

"It's more important to be an outlier than ever before. If you look at what AI is doing, being differentiated or being really good at a specialized field I think will be more rewarded in the economy." — Ellie Kemper ([50:43])

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Key Takeaways

• Probability and Risk: Nate Silver's approach to polling relies heavily on probabilistic and statistical modeling to navigate uncertainty.

• Resilience and Failure: Embracing failure as a stepping stone to growth fosters resilience and adaptability.

• Strategic Thinking: Refining models and strategies in response to changing environments is crucial for accurate forecasting.

• Stress Management: Techniques from poker and acting highlight the importance of maintaining composure and embracing unpredictability.

• Continuous Learning: Being an outlier and continuously evolving strategies are essential in a rapidly changing, data-driven world.

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This episode of Fail Better offers a rich exploration of how embracing failure and managing risks can lead to personal and professional growth. Through the lens of Nate Silver’s expertise and Ellie Kemper’s insights, listeners gain a deeper understanding of the delicate balance between data-driven strategies and the inherent unpredictability of human behavior.

Transcript

[Reshma Sajani]

Hi, I'm Reshma Sajani, founder of Girls who Code. Look, I'd consider myself a pretty successful adult woman. I've written books, founded two successful nonprofits, and I'm raising two incredible kids. But here's the thing. I still wake up wondering, is this it? And if the best years are yet to come, when's that going to start? Join me on My so Called Midlife, my new podcast with Lemonada Media, where we're building a playbook for navigating midlife one episode at a time. Each week, I'll chat with extraordinary guests who've transformed their midlife crisis into opportunities for growth and newfound purpose. At some point, we all ask ourselves, is there more to life? I'm here to discover how to thrive in my second act, right alongside you. My so Called Midlife is out now, wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, I'm Ellie Kemper from the Office and Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt. And this is my fantastically funny friend, Scott Eckert.

[Ellie Kemper]

Hi, everyone.

[Reshma Sajani]

We host a podcast called Born to Love. It's a show where we talk to the people we love about the things they love.

[Ellie Kemper]

Each week, we bring on a celebrity guest to discuss their secret passion.

[Reshma Sajani]

Did you know that my friend Jenna.

[Ellie Kemper]

Fisher loves Keanu Reeves movies? She does, she does.

[Reshma Sajani]

And how about Al Roker? Samantha Bee, Tony Hawk, Jane Lynch?

[Ellie Kemper]

What do they love, Ellie?

[Reshma Sajani]

You have to listen to the show to find out. So check out Born to Love wherever you get your podcast from Lemonada Media. Lemonada.

[David Duchovny]

I'm David Duchovny. This is Fail Better. A show where failure, not success, shapes who we are. Nate Silver is a statistician, a writer, and a poker player who analyzes baseball, basketball, and elections. He is the founder of 538 and co host of the podcast Risky Business. Much of Silver's approach can be characterized by using probabilistic. Probabilistic. Probabilistic. And statistical modeling to try to understand complex things. I can't even say it, let alone understand it. Probabilistic. Basically, he's a math whiz. Again, that's not me who has a knack for predicting things correctly. But of course, he doesn't get it right all the time. For instance, he, like most people, predicted Hillary Clinton to win the 2016 presidential election. But Nate's model also gave Trump the biggest chance of winning. I think, like 30%, which is part of what thrust him into the spotlight. He was essentially less wrong, less off than most of the other guys who were predicting, which feels very Fail better to me. His latest book on the the Art of Risking Everything explores the world of professional risk takers like poker players and hedge fund managers to learn about how they impact our world and navigate uncertainty. Nate is a real smart guy and a guy who definitely cleaned me out at the poker table, so I've got things to learn from him. So get ready for a little bit of math and a whole lot of guesswork. Here's Nate Silver. Hey, Nate. Nice to meet you.

[Ellie Kemper]

Definitely, man. I'm happy to be on.

[David Duchovny]

Just taking bets. Is Nate gonna be late? No, I'm right on time.

[Ellie Kemper]

I'm not, you know, I'm not as late as I used to be. That reputation used to be correct, but now I'm on time, like, two thirds of the time.

[David Duchovny]

I'd say lateness is something I've thought about a lot in life because when you're an actor, you're supposed to be on set at a certain time, and, you know, you kind of bristle against it sometimes because you want your own life. And, you know, I try to game the traffic and the system, but. And then, you know, I once heard that being late was like latent hostility. You know, it's like passive aggressive hostility.

[Ellie Kemper]

It can show a bit of contempt, I think.

[David Duchovny]

Right.

[Ellie Kemper]

It's like, my time is more important than yours.

[David Duchovny]

Yeah. Okay. But thank you for being on time. And it's easy for me to be on time. I'm home, so I can't really. It's not really even a test for me, and I'm so excited to talk to you because there's just so much. My head is just filled with so many ways to go, so forgive me if we. If we jump around.

[Ellie Kemper]

It's no problem. Yeah.

[David Duchovny]

What I want to say right off the bat is your approach or your obsession with risk and probability and statistics and all that. It kind of dovetailed beautifully with something that I've been obsessing about for the last five or ten years, which is. I don't know if you. If. Did you read the book Sapiens? Did you.

[Ellie Kemper]

Did you ever read it? I read part of it.

[David Duchovny]

Not all, exactly. That's. That's the. It's a. It's it's almost as long as your book.

[Ellie Kemper]

I think we were looking at benchmarks for books that were like. We figured if you're under 600 pages, that you don't get the reputation for being like, a Robert Caro length book, but, yeah, it's on the long side, for sure.

[David Duchovny]

Well, in Sapiens, there's kind of a theoretical discussion of Neanderthals versus Homo sapiens. And what the author kind of comes to and what struck me is it's true that wherever we find Neanderthal settlements, they never moved past the horizon. They kind of always stayed where they were, they lived and they died where they were. From here, the author supposes that there's something in the DNA of Homo sapiens that risks, that looks at a horizon, sees nothing as we do primitively, and says, hey, maybe I like to go there. Which is actually nowhere, you know, But I kept thinking about that when I was reading your book and I wonder if that resonates with you in any way.

[Ellie Kemper]

Yeah, look, I mean, some of this is based on tens of thousands of years of evolution in general, I mean, it's going to be a very poker player, like, way to put it, right? Yeah. In general, people are risk averse, or at least maybe the Neanderthals were. Even when it has a positive expected value, meaning that on average you wind up better off when you take more risk. You know, that implies that the riskier members of the tribe or the riskier genetic line will actually prevail in the long run, they'll get better outcomes. Maybe if you're having conflict or war of some kind, they're superior at that. I mean, it's kind of a brutal picture in some ways of human civilization. But now that does resonate with me and I feel like, look, we're no longer kind of seeing the horizons beyond us and so we kind of take these virtual forms of risk. I mean, Las Vegas in some ways is a shrine to excess risk. Right? It's people who feel boredom, unwe. I don't know if I'm saying that word right in their lives, and therefore go to like prove their bravery. And there, you know, and there are some gender components to this too, but yeah, I mean, some people, if you talk to people, you know, I talked to, for example, a guy who is an explorer named Victor Viscovo in the book, who has like climbed the world's seven summits and gone in a submersible to the bottom of the four oceans or five oceans, whatever it is, and he's like, yeah, it's just genetic. It's just something I'm born with. And if you talk to other people in my community, which is a small community, they have the same trait. It's something innate and they can't really put it down.

[David Duchovny]

The community that you refer to is the river. You think that small community, Is that what you're referring to.

[Ellie Kemper]

So the river refers to this community of calculated risk takers. So people in venture capital or people on Wall Street, I guess, poker players, one thing is being very cool under pressure. You know, some people actually, I mean, as an actor, you probably get some of this right. If you, if you have stage right, you're not going to survive for very long. And you know, even when I'm giving like a speech or something, it's like sometimes you can, like you're tired, you can barely form a sentence. You've just been through a grinding day and then you get on stage and the pressure's on and you actually all of a sudden are much more articulate. Right. Some people have that trait to perform well under stress. It's very important in, in poker to play well when you have the bigger pots where there's on the line.

[David Duchovny]

Can you just explain for people who haven't read the book yet? Your major distinction in the book is between the river and the village. Now I'm a village person. I'm part of the Village people. I don't know if you can tell by my, my outfit, but I am. But I, I need you to take me to the river. I need you to al Green or talking heads, take me to the river or take our listeners to the river and just give a short explanation. And then I want to take you way back to young Nate Silver, who grew up in a village, I'm sure. And I want you to of you becoming the person that you are and what were the factors that you can see in retrospect that led to that prediction?

[Ellie Kemper]

So the river is these people who are, like I said, calculator risk takers. And they have an overlap of two traits that don't often go together, one of which is they are very analytical. They are mostly data driven people, but they're also really competitive. They're extremely individualistic to the point of being difficult and contrarian sometimes. And they really want to win. Now how could you know? I grew up, Yeah, I grew up in an academic household, although I have some recessive risk taking DNA. Right. But yeah, look, I've always been those two things I mentioned before. I've always been interested in numbers and data and I've always been really competitive. I always felt like I didn't quite fit in. I was a gay kid growing up in the 80s 90s and I always did high school debate team and badly played youth sports of different kinds and video games and like, things like that. And just always. I know, I mean that Seems kind of innate to me. You know, people want inner peace, but only some people have this chip on their shoulder where they feel like they have to like prove it to the rest of the world too.

[David Duchovny]

Yeah, well, that's one thing that comes up in discussion on this podcast to me is that, you know, because I'm talking mostly, you know, the weird thing about talking about failure is I'm talking to successful people about failure mostly, you know, and it's a bit of a cheat, but because, okay, we've got a happy ending that we're shooting for, so the failure is kind of toothless when we're talking about it. It's like, oh yeah, you failed there, but here was the resilience and here was the end of the story that was happy. But what I get from a lot of these people, you included, is that they have a kind of wherewithal as kids. And what you're describing, whether or not it was you being gay or you being not as good an athlete as you wanted to be, but you were looking at systems, you were looking at games, let's say they're all games. You were looking at games and you were saying, okay, I can't win at that one, I'm not going to win at that one. There was some kind of sober self reflection that went, I can't win at that game. Where's the game that I can win? Can I find the game that I can win? Is that an appropriate way to talk about your childhood? Was there ever any consciousness like that? Or was it just an organic kind of maturation?

[Ellie Kemper]

That probably is more self possessed than I was as a kid, but I definitely relate to the notion of trying to learn the rules of the system. If I am writing a newsletter, I write a newsletter called Silver Bulletin that's about politics and all the other things I cover. Trying to learn the game of when do you have a free newsletter versus a paid newsletter? This is kind of boring, mechanical stuff. But you're thinking about what are the rules of this implicit game I'm playing and how do I get ahead? Now I don't think that way in terms of like everyday social interaction, which I think is kind of a brutal thing to do. But like, in terms of like, in terms of like my businesses and trying to figure out kind of how am I optimizing the time I spend working. I think it's important and worthwhile to do that.

[David Duchovny]

And as a kid, did you. And this is something I come back to a lot because I'm interested, you know, personally and it is. When you were looking at those games and thinking, young Nate is not going to be a professional baseball player. Young Nate is not going to marry the prom queen, was there ever any setbacks in those? Were there emotional setbacks? Was there? Or was it really just a I use the word sober kind of assessment of, okay, well, that game isn't going to work for me? Was there any kind of sense of, I feel like a failure? I feel like I'm not a good enough person to win those games? Was there an emotion out. Attached to it?

[Ellie Kemper]

Oh, sure. I, you know, I spent a lot of years feeling pretty lost. Right. I mean, I think in high school they just, oh, you always go away to college, and then. And then you figure it out from there. Right. But after college, I had a job I. I didn't like and spent well. I don't know. I channel myself in different ways. Right. I mean, frankly, I'm in my young 20s, and I'm spending a lot of time, like, partying and things like that. I also, though, began working during the workday at my consulting job on other projects on forecasting baseball players. I began to learn how to play poker, and I'd stay up all night and play poker and kind of straggle into work. So, look, on the one hand, look, I think you have people who are more easily dissatisfied with their current situation, and that can be helpful. But I think there's a lot of luck involved, whether you channel that into productive or destructive ways.

[David Duchovny]

Right. If I look back and if I tried to give the odds of, you know, success in the acting field or whatever, even in arts in general, they're. They're terrible. And I didn't do anything like that. Everything was kind of gut, was kind of intuitive of just, mm, not happy where I'm at. There's something not satisfying about this life that I'm leading. I'm hearing that that's similar to you, even though you had different kind of coping strategies.

[Ellie Kemper]

Yeah. There's another former poker player named Annie Duke who wrote a book about quitting, about quitting, and she studied a lot of research that in general, people are more happy when they make a difficult choice to make a change in their life.

[David Duchovny]

And do you think it's fair to say that if you fail authentically, if you fail at something you're passionate about, that the feelings that you get are not those of shame, that can be attendant to failure, but more like just completion or serenity? It seems to me that that's the case.

[Ellie Kemper]

I think you may have that, David. And maybe I have some of that. I don't think that's so typical. Right. And I have other friends who are actors or filmmakers. And if you're trying to get a film into Tribeca, you can look at the Data and about 1 out of 100 applications gets accepted, depending on what kind of line that you're in. And to mentally prepare yourself for the fact that there's a 99 out of 100 chance of failure. And you have to try many times. I mean, that's hard for most people. Most people are a. Not that great with probabilities in general, but really don't do these things that are the high risk, high reward things where you're hoping to get noticed, you're hoping to be in the right place at the right time, hoping something clicks and you have to try over and over again. I think that's. It's really hard for most people.

[David Duchovny]

It's painful. Yeah, that's what, that's what, that's what it is. I mean, and I have a card written down here and one of the things, I'm trying not to give away my towels because I've got cards around me that. And I don't know why I have this idea that I want you to think it's all in my head, not, not actually at my fingertips. But it, you know, I do have some help for myself. But I'd written there's a card that says tolerance for pain, tolerance for discomfort, tolerance for loss, tolerance for uncertainty. And these are all necessary things to attempt a career or a life in a low probability success career. And you need those things. Do you think it's just things that we're born with? Or can you grow tolerance for pain? Can you grow tolerance for discomfort? Resilience? Can you grow resilience?

[Ellie Kemper]

I think so. If you look at the people that are successful founders who found companies, they are what I call in like the mezzanine of privilege. So they're in the stadium. They're usually men, because venture capitalists probably have a bias toward men, for example. They can't have things that are so crippling that they never kind of get into the stadium. But they're not the ones who are born on third base. Right. The people who have the combination of failure that motivates them. And often revenge seeking can be a big motivation, which is not a particularly serene feeling. Some of them might be more self actualized, especially as they get older. But that's, I think, where part of the competitiveness comes from. Now one thing you definitely can control is the value of optionality is the kind of academic way to put it. But if you have, or if you're all in on one bet, and sometimes you have to be, if you're founding a company, then you're expected to be all in on that. For me, I like to have different things going at different times.

[David Duchovny]

You're more of a fox and not a hedgehog.

[Ellie Kemper]

More of a fox than a hedgehog, to use the Isaiah Berlin term. So a hedgehog knows one big thing. A fox knows many little things. And even this is a little cheesy motivational speak. But even things like One thing I've learned as I've gotten older is that it's really important to maintain your relationships in life, even when you get busy. I think it's quite important to say yes to invitations of different kinds more than you might think from being tired on a given evening because you never know when you'll meet somebody who's a life partner or a lifelong friend, or who helps you a lot in a business sense, or who gives you an idea or that you learn from.

[David Duchovny]

So I think maybe luck can be increased by saying yes is what you're saying.

[Ellie Kemper]

Yeah, I mean the metaphor. If you walk through the hallway that has more doors, right then sometimes you'll find an open door versus consigning yourself to the path that you've always taken.

[David Duchovny]

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[Nate Silver]

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[Reshma Sajani]

Hi, I'm Emily Deschanel.

[Ellie Kemper]

And I'm Carla Gallo.

[Reshma Sajani]

And we're excited to tell you about Boneheads, our new Bones Rewatch podcast. I played Dr. Temperance Brennan. And I played Daisy Wick. And we are gonna watch from the very beginning. We're gonna watch the episodes, we're gonna reminisce, we're gonna laugh, we're gonna cry, we're gonna tell behind the scenes stories, we're gonna go on tangents, a lot of tangents. So whether you're a seasoned Bones fanatic.

[Ellie Kemper]

Or a newcomer looking to dip your.

[Reshma Sajani]

Toes in to the wild world of forensic, forensic anthropology, this show is for you. Boneheads from Lemonada Media is out now. Wherever you get your podcasts.

[David Duchovny]

You know, with, with polling and obviously you have your secret sauce, you have a proprietary kind of a system. But I imagine that the questions you ask are different. You know, you've got this guy, Alan Lichtman, or whatever his name is, he's got 13 factors. They don't change.

[Ellie Kemper]

Oh, they do. Yeah.

[David Duchovny]

The problem is that they do. I didn't know.

[Ellie Kemper]

Of the 13 factors, 11 are subjective, basically.

[David Duchovny]

Right? Yeah. Right. So that's, that's the change in the system. So yours. So if you're estimating Trump's chances of winning, the questions that you asked in 2016 are different from the questions that you're asking in 2024 are they not. Are they the same?

[Ellie Kemper]

No, they're not. In fact, it's kind of the opposite, where the fact that you have the model I basically designed 16 years ago in 2008. Right. And there are small revisions. But the idea here is that you are following a rigorous process where. Where there's less room for subjectivity, because if there were more room for subjectivity, then certain results would be better for me in different ways. I have political opinions and certain things that make me look good or look bad. And so it's a matter of totally trusting the process because people lose their minds in an election campaign, and having rules you agree upon ahead of time and being more rigorous, I think, is the comparative advantage.

[David Duchovny]

But have you refined that system since 2008? Does it get refined all the time every year? Is that part of your daydreaming to say, okay, I've got to refine this part of it?

[Ellie Kemper]

So each election year, I'll collect notes about things that I might want to re examine four years later or two years later for a midterm. But I don't want to change in midstream because I think that makes. That's when you get in the subjectivity part of it that you're trying to avoid. And I think in general, you know, look, the issue with elections, we've been talking about things where, like poker, we get to simulate out thousands of hands, or every year there's a New York Knick season.

[David Duchovny]

Right? Yeah.

[Ellie Kemper]

Elections, you only get one time every four years. And people, I think, actually make the problem of fighting, of fighting the last war a lot. Right. Whatever happened last time, they assume will happen again. Right. And a lot of punditry is just saying I'm betting on the same thing happening as last time when I'm trying to examine kind of the broader history.

[David Duchovny]

But if you're asking the same questions, I guess what I'm getting at is you must adjust a little bit. You must.

[Ellie Kemper]

I think you're refining. But it's the same basic. Because also people don't. You know, you can have the same process, and you have things that are basically random, right?

[David Duchovny]

Yes.

[Ellie Kemper]

Look, a few months ago, somebody shot at Donald Trump and Grace's ear. He happened to turn his head to, like, look at a billboard basically a few seconds beforehand. That happened. We were in a different world. Or in 2000, the results in Florida was basically random. There was an issue of ballot design in Palm beach county that probably cost Al Gore a few thousand votes. And so these things can literally be close to random or at least unforeseeable, even with the same inputs.

[David Duchovny]

Well, there's two things I want to get to about this without belaboring it for you, and one is just to ask about every lit major's favorite scientific theorem, which is the Heisenberg Principle. Of course, you know, in Breaking Bad, the main character's name was Heisenberg. So, Vince Gilligan, hats off to you. But you are, as a pollster, as somebody who is interested in trying to prophesy an outcome of an election and publishing that, giving people access to your interpretation. Do you ever feel like, you know, the Heisenberg Principle generally is that you can't observe a phenomenon without affecting it. There's no such thing as an objective observation of something in nature that doesn't change that thing in nature, at least temporarily. Are you concerned with that or do you factor that in? Do you become part of the system that is swaying people's minds and not just reporting on people's minds?

[Ellie Kemper]

So what I say is that what I do is a subspecies of media coverage of the campaign. And yeah, media can influence people in different ways. But look, the conceit of polling is that we are involving the common man, woman, on the street in the democratic process somehow. If a New York Times reporter or a Washington Post reporter goes to a scene, then they, then they are reporting based on their biases and their predilections and maybe their political preferences. Although, although that gets uncomfortable to talk about. Whereas with the polling, then you, in theory, you're just randomly dialing people on the phone and tallying what they have to say. So the romantic notion is that this is actually closer to the ground truth in some ways. I don't know. The academic literature is there's no consensus on what effect forecasts or polls have. I mean, the one thing that is clear is that when you have a closer race, then more people turn out because people are actually pretty rational. They know that your vote is worth more in Pennsylvania than New York or California or Hawaii or whatever.

[David Duchovny]

Right? I mean, just hypothetically, we could say, because you got the 2016, you gave Trump 29% chance of winning, as opposed to 1% to 5% of just about everybody else. You in effect, could be saying, hey, people, it's going to be closer than you think. You could be responsible for getting more vote out in that sense. That's just the hypothetical there.

[Ellie Kemper]

Look, I mean, if you read 538, where I was then working in 2016, then I was quite insistent on saying. Because you could say, oh, it's 70, 30 Clinton, probably Clinton. Right. But because people just couldn't conceive of Trump winning, by the way, partly. I had made the mistake in the GOP primaries, right. I had been like, oh, he's just a flash in the pan and the minute he stops being on CNN all the time, Republicans will find a more normal nominee. So that experience was a failure where I'd been very wrong and it kind of scarred me.

[David Duchovny]

How did the point scar you? You just felt like, I don't know what I'm doing or fucked up.

[Ellie Kemper]

I think I had gone out of my way to deny that Trump could win this primary, which he clearly could do until pretty late in the day, until he started winning Iowa and other states and things like that. Who didn't win Iowa actually won New Hampshire. Because what I saw myself doing is you get dug in, into a position and then it's hard to change your mind and hard to admit error. You get dug in and you start to, you know, you see on Twitter or something, oh, here are all the people who agree with me and I'm going to retweet them. And it's hard to change your mind, especially in public when you're known or supposed to be an expert.

[David Duchovny]

An expert, yeah, yeah, yeah. So that's kind of a self reinforcing, narrowed mindedness that you have to overcome. You know, your success at forecasting kind of made you a less good forecaster in some way.

[Ellie Kemper]

In some ways your incentives get worse. Right. I mean, the other thing you can do is you can become really risk averse where you're never really saying anything about anything because, hey, you have a good life and why take the chance on ruining it potentially. But yeah, reputation is a hard thing to navigate and people change their reputation of you probably more quickly than they should. Right. I mean, I have been relative to this weird nerdy world I'm in. In moments where you're ascending or descending and the degree to which people treat you differently is profound and I think not entirely healthy.

[David Duchovny]

Right. Do you see? I was just, when I was just meditating a little before coming to talk to you, I thought, can you see the election as a card game? Because I thought, okay, every vote is a card. That doesn't sound like a card game. That's just, you know, that would be a true democracy in which the person that got the most votes was the winner. But some, some cards in this game we're playing of the election are worth more than others. And they're in apparently five states. And this is how the game was rigged by the founding fathers by creating the Electoral College. For whatever reason they did it, it's now rigged that some votes are more important than others. As a poker player and as a pollster, are those the cards that you're really looking at? Are those the cards that you're basically focusing on?

[Ellie Kemper]

Yeah. Look, you have to play it as though it's a game. I mean, according to game theory, electoral politics meets a definition of a game. By game theory, of course, the stakes are really high, but that's all the more reason. Like before, Joe Biden was kind of forced out of the race, yet a lot of Democrats were like, well, it's just not how things are done. Right. You can't kick this guy to the curb. He's been a good president. And I was insistent that based on the polls that, that anybody but Biden would have a better chance against Trump. And if you think this is a existential question, then you have to be strategic about it. Look, for better or worse, Republicans have been more strategic, for example, about the courts, about making sure that their highest priority is to appoint conservative Supreme Court justices. And lo and behold, despite Democrats having won the popular vote in all these years, you have a 6 to 3 conservative majority. And so. And that reflects playing the game, so to speak. Well.

[Nate Silver]

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[Reshma Sajani]

Hey everyone, it's me, Ricki Lake. Despite all my success, I've been through some serious challenges. Struggles with my weight with hair loss, grief, everything.

[Nate Silver]

But despite it all, I have managed.

[Reshma Sajani]

To create a life filled with ease and a whole lot of fun. Finally, in midlife, I feel like I have mastered the art of choosing happiness. And I want to share that hope, love and good health with you. Listen to the High Life with Ricki Lake from Lemonada Media, out now. Wherever you get your podcast. I love me some me and my nipples are touching my gut. Yes, girl. Welcome to the Body Collective podcast. I'M Katie Storino. We're here to change the conversation about weight. We're going to take everything we've learned about shame, unlearn it, and transform it into a source of power. And I'm doing it with some of my greatest girlfriends. I'm Hunter McGrady. Ashley Longshore. My name is Tracy Moore from Lemonada Media and Weight Watchers. The Bodi Collective is out now.

[David Duchovny]

I think in poker, it's very interesting as an acting, because it's hard to train your body to not freak out or go on tilt, as you say in the book, when you're faced with extreme stress. And of course, with poker, it becomes more complicated because you don't want to give away to other players that, you know, you don't want to show that you're blushing. You don't want them to see your hand shaking a little bit. But all these things you can tame as a player, but you can't tame your body to never not do that. Is that correct?

[Ellie Kemper]

That's correct, more or less. I mean, look, I think as you move up and play higher stakes games, then the stress level changes. If you're used to playing a $50, $100 game, then a 510 game might seem like a walk in the park, but no, for sure. And in fact, you don't want to tame that. According to the experts that I spoke with. Yeah. Evolution trains us to have more of a response when we have a high stakes situation and your heart rate goes up and you also become more intuitive. Right. This can be in a flow state or a zone, but a lot of people panic. They're like, oh, my God, my heart is racing. And in poker, like you mentioned, David, now you're giving away physical signals, and so you do have to be careful about that. And they panic and say, I am having a panic attack, and. And their mind goes blank. And, you know, I think you can learn to live with that to some extent. You can trust yourself to say, if I'm on stage and I have stage fright, that if I just say the words that I know. Right. That actually it's going to come out fine. Right. I shouldn't think too much. That's been the experience. My experience, anyway. And the experience of people in the book.

[David Duchovny]

Yeah, well, when I was first starting to act, I remember reading this book on acting that was. I don't remember if it was any good, but one sentence stuck with me, which was, tension is talent trying to get out. You know, so it is the response to a high pressure situation. Is appropriate because it's high pressure and you need, you need all your wits about you. But the feeling of all your wits coming to you at once can be a little disconcerting. Right.

[Ellie Kemper]

It's a question of experience and it's a question of kind of how much free mental bandwidth that you have. Right. You know, because if you're in this kind of flow, elevated heart rate state, it's just a different operating system and it's harder to consciously conjure things up. So what you want is to have a lot of experience in ordinary situations so that when an extraordinary situation arises, that you can overperform and have extra bandwidth cycles, basically. So the explorer I talked to also was a former fighter pilot who trained pilots in the Navy at the academy that's sometimes called Top Gun. And he was perturbed by the movie Maverick because Tom Cruise is telling all these junior pilots, oh, just trust your gut. Right, right. Which works well if you're Maverick because you have had so much experience that now you can operate on some higher level, but doesn't work well if you're a trainee. Then you just want to execute the game plan as much as you can because that will require. That's twice as hard as it might be in a less stressful circumstance.

[David Duchovny]

Right. It's the redundancy of performance in a way. And when I was talking to Sally Jenkins, who's a wonderful sports writer, and she was telling about, you know, the way that Brady and Belichick practiced was super high stress, you know, and part of what you might say about practice and professional sports is, you know, take it easy on them. It's a long season, you don't want them to get too banged up. But their philosophy, which I think was proven, you know, very effective, was that if you play under game stress, now, I'm not sure how you can convince yourself it is game stress. But if you play under game stress, then the stress of the game is going to seem a familiar place to you and you'll be able to operate your game plan better under that stress.

[Ellie Kemper]

I think that probably differs a lot from person to person, but yeah, some people, I think, need to preserve their energy. I mean, I'm sure it's chemical on some level, preserve their energy for high stress moments. I mean, one thing you learn as a poker player, if you play in a tournament, especially toward the end where every hand, the stakes are really high, you will often kind of limp into bed. Right. Because you learn how to train yourself to say, I'm going to allocate exactly this much energy until the tournament ends. And then, you know, you might have plans. I'm going to go meet a friend for a drink. And so many times it's happened, I've just kind of, you know, gone back to my hotel room to change and then just collapsed on the bed. Right. And so people, I think, get better at learning how to. How to manage their performance.

[David Duchovny]

Well, it's also, you say somewhere in the book, and I don't have it in front of me, but I'm going to paraphrase that. Poker is, you know, long stretches of boredom punctuated by moments of panic. And in a way that resonated with me, too, as an actor, because I don't know if you've ever been on a set, but they're boring. You're there for 12 to 14 hours a day, and the time that you're actually playing, the time that you're actually on camera is minutes, maybe 20 minutes of those 12 hours. So you do have to learn how to manage this cyclical stress. And it does go from 0 to 100, and it does go quickly. So that's something that I've had to learn over time. And I wonder if that was a learning curve for you as well.

[Ellie Kemper]

Yeah, and that phrase has been adapted by poker players, but originally comes from, like, World War I, where you have soldiers in the trenches and you don't know when you're going to be called to defend your position or attack. And, yeah, I mean, I don't know if this phenomenon has a name, but all of a sudden, there's not always this transition between being at rest and being suddenly thrust into action. Right. And, yeah, that can be stressful. And in poker in particular, you might be minding your own business, but you inherently have to take some risk to succeed at a poker game. And so all of a sudden, you're in what was a small pod and it's a war of escalation, and you're in the thick of things, and you have to just. Just within seconds, be operating at your top level. And that can be hard. And there are things, by the way, even in poker, things like your fatigue level and your nutrition. I mean, poker players have this reputation for being kind of like slobs, eating donuts and whatever. I'd say half the player pool now is quite physically fit. They understand that paying attention is a physical process, that there is some degree of acting in poker, and that can be quite physical.

[David Duchovny]

Should you be allowed to wear sunglasses and hats? Like, I would think, like that it's almost like being able to take steroids as a poker player. It's like you could put a bag over your head.

[Ellie Kemper]

So some people have taken advantage of the liberalized masking rules under Covid. So with the sunglasses in particular, most good players don't wear them for a couple of reasons. One is that you reduce your peripheral vision, and a lot of tells or reads you get from other players come out of the corner of your eye.

[David Duchovny]

That's fucking fascinating.

[Ellie Kemper]

Yeah. The other is that people are relatively aware of what they're doing with their eyes, and so they're less likely to involuntarily give off tells with them. Whereas if you're feeling nervy, then wearing something that covers your neck is important because people have their heartbeat.

[David Duchovny]

Oh, you can see the heartbeat in the neck. Yeah.

[Ellie Kemper]

Things having to do with. So when I was playing a lot, while people were still wearing masks, Right. You could detect heavy breathing really easily. Now, what you don't know is why somebody is breathing heavily. Right. Some people get very nervous when they have a bluff. Some people are extremely calm when they're bluffing and get extremely nervous when they have a big hand and they're trying to win a huge pot. And so. But, yeah, people give. And things like people's posture, it's very hard. And how people talk about their hands and their timing, and people's hands themselves reveal a lot of information. Our hands communicate a lot, and we don't think about that consciously, very much.

[David Duchovny]

Can you tell me some things you've read in hands without giving too much away of your. Of your. In your arsenal?

[Ellie Kemper]

I mean, fidgety ness in general. Right. Can mean different things for different players. But if people are making a show where it looks like they're deliberating with their hands. Right. They're kind of going back and forth to their chip stack and things like that, that I think tends to be a strong hand. What they're trying to do is the motto in poker is that strength means weakness and weakness means strength. Right. So if they're trying to involuntarily communicate hesitancy, then that means they're trying to lower your impression of what hand they have, and therefore it might be a good hand. Right. But sometimes it's just like. One of the best poker players I talked to is a guy named Jason Kuhn, who grew up in West Virginia in a very destitute family, like abusive father and things like that. And he's very good under stress, in part because he had a stressful childhood. He's like, yeah, for my operating system, stress is normal, right? It's almost when things are calm that I go a little bit haywire. And he just said, yeah, it's just at some level, it's just like an aura that you pick up from somebody. It's probably 10 or 20 little intangible signals that you tie together based on having this lifetime of experience. By the way, if you've never played poker before, then don't try to pick up people's reads or do just to kind of get your database intact. But, like, don't try to go off that. Right? But it's just a lifetime of experience. I mean, and we have it like an everyday life, too, right? You can. If you're having a conversation with somebody, there are a million ways you can tell if they're comfortable or not.

[David Duchovny]

Suddenly, I'm very uncomfortable talking to you. I have to tell you, right. One of the things that struck me about your discussion of poker, and I'm not, I'm not. I mean, I know how to play, but I'm not a player because I grew up with a mother who was scarred by the depression. And to risk any money in my household was considered the highest act of folly, you know. You know, we barely. The family could barely scrape two nickels together, you know, you're not going to go bet that. I mean, you could definitely go another way with. It was like, why not? Why not? Why not bet? But it's not in me to play with my money in that way. But what I. In fact, whenever I've gone to Vegas, whenever I play poker, I'm like, I can't wait to lose all my money because then I can get the fuck out of here. You know, it's like that kind of a feeling. I don't know if you've encountered that kind of feeling before.

[Ellie Kemper]

I mean, there are various things that happens that you see late in the poker tournament. One is that some players get imposter syndrome, you know, one is that they can have survivorship guilt. All their friends busted out of the tournament, and they didn't. You know, a third is just the cumulative stress. I mean, so, you know, one thing that I found is like, you should try never to make like a dinner or plane reservation after you're. When you're. When you're playing in a high stakes tournament, if you've made day three of a big tournament, because you will, like, find a way to say, yeah, I made a little money, and wouldn't it be nice to just get on the flight and have a, you know, have a nice little glass of whiskey or something and fly home and sleep in my own bed and like, and you'll find ways to lose. And look, I mean there are people who have self destructive tendencies that are channeled through gambling. I mean, look, I think a lot of the characters in the book, including people who are like successful entrepreneurs, have some self destructive tendencies where they're highly functional, self destructive people that have creative abilities as well.

[David Duchovny]

Yeah. And my impression from reading the book is you could program AI to be a good poker player, but probably not the best poker player for these reasons of emotional intelligence that you're talking about. But also I think if I'm getting this wrong, tell me. But what I get from your style of playing or the style of playing that you admire is that yes, there's somebody who's in control of all the numbers and can count cards to a certain extent and knows strategy and knows the right play and knows the statistically the winning probabilities. But in order not to have a tell at all, in order not to be predictable, you have to randomize. You have to somehow, sometimes, and even randomly randomized, you can't even, you know, you can't be a random random player. You have to just be fully random play badly at sometimes. It reminds me of football coaches that will just try a play early in the game just getting information. You know, they just, they know it's not a winning play, they're not expecting it to be a winning play, but they're getting information. So there's this idea of there's all this studying, there's all these numbers, there's all these percentages of probability and then it's just like, fuck it, I'm going to let chaos in, I'm going to let random in, I'm going to let God in, whatever you want to name that thing. And is that an appropriate way to talk about what you're saying?

[Ellie Kemper]

Well, ironically, the computers do a lot of randomization. So they're actually now like poker is basically a solved game, so it's solved under game theory. So if you saw A Beautiful Mind, John Nash came up with the Nash equilibrium, which is a state where you're basically playing perfectly and you can't be defeated. And because it's so important not to reveal predictable information in poker that you do a ton of randomizing with many hands, you sometimes call and sometimes raise, or sometimes raise a small amount, sometimes raise a large amount. It's very important to bluff in poker. And it's very Important not to be predictable above all else. Now, because people are predictable, then you can instead adapt what's called an exploitative strategy, which is I try to outwit you. If we're playing rock, paper, scissors and you always throw rock, then I'll always throw paper. The problem with that is that if you pick up on my strategy, then you can one up me and then do scissors and then I'm screwed. And so it's a cat and mouse game where you're trying to stay one step ahead of people. If you want to opt out of that game, then you can literally randomize. I have a friend who literally brings a 100 sided dice, like Dungeons and Dragons dice to the poker table and we'll roll it to generate a random number. That's a little bit extreme. That's probably revealing too much. You probably don't want your opponents to know that you're randomizing. But yeah, people will look at the clock and see what the second hand says of the clock and make a decision that way, for example.

[David Duchovny]

And yeah, I can relate this to acting because if I'm feeling tight or predictable, which is death for an actor as well, I will roll the dice and I'll say to myself, and somet times if I'm feeling weak, I'll announce it to everybody else so they know I'm intentionally trying to be bad. And I'll just say I'm just, this is going to be terrible. I'm going to scream this one. Or I'm going to do this one in a German accent. Or I just have to, I have to somehow clear my mind of strategy, of rationality, of numbers and try to get, to try to bust it open in a way. Because I'm assuming both people at the poker table have the same access to the same information. You can process it as well as one another. So the idea of when to call on God or whatever or chance or fate or luck or randomization is really what it's all about to me. That's what opens the window and lets the air into the room for me.

[Ellie Kemper]

Yeah. Look, part of what you try to gain through experience in poker is learning exactly how much to trust your intuition. I think ironically, a time when you probably shouldn't trust it as much as when you're tired or fatigued. That's when you might get a little bit paranoid. And in poker, poker. Poker is a relatively unforgiving game to certain types of mistakes. You know, whereas acting, maybe you give a bad take or maybe it turns out to be a Good. Take some of the time. Like, it's not catastrophic. But in poker, any one hand can bust you out of the tournament or cost you your whole stack. And so that makes the heuristics, like a little bit different. But yeah, look, I think people in this community called the river naturally, they naturally like to do a bit of randomization. They don't necessarily need to have that much of a routine because they want experiment and collect data and they just have more variety in life too. But I can relate to that for sure.

[David Duchovny]

Well, like you. Let's end on this. Like you as a poker player and as a statistician, do you feel like giving, writing a book like this or giving away the game in a way, giving away your approach to the game? Do you make it tougher for you as an outlier? Is it harder and harder to be an outlier as we move along?

[Ellie Kemper]

I don't think it's harder to be an outlier. In fact, I think it's probably more important to be an outlier than ever before. If you look at what AI is doing, if AI can replicate pretty good human performance, we can talk about whether we would ever get superhuman or not. Then being differentiated or being really good at a specialized field I think will be more rewarded in the economy. But yeah, look, it's a book that I felt like I had a duty to put out out into the world in a duty that I had to write to help, like, understand myself. And, you know, it kind of started with why do I feel like so estranged in this field politics that I've been kind of, or thrust myself into. I shouldn't use the passive voice. I think the book was the most important creative thing that I've done in my life.

[David Duchovny]

I think it's a terrific book. And it's a lot, you know, I mean, I don't mean that in any negative way, but it's something that you can come back to in a way. It reminds me of the Bill James extract that I used to love to look at. I don't call it a toilet book, you know, because you can just. You can just pick it up for a few pages and come up with something. There's something interesting every three pages in that book, and there's a lot of pages, so there's a lot to contend with. And it's hard to summarize it. It's hard to summarize it. And I thought, I, I. And I commend you for writing it. And I really, I'm, I'm moved by the fact that you did it in a way to make sense of yourself, to yourself, you know, which I think is, in a way, it's your autobiography, let's say, in some weird way.

[Ellie Kemper]

Yeah, it's a little bit. It's, you know, it's a memoir. We also learn a lot about, a lot about poker and gambling. So it's interesting book.

[David Duchovny]

Yeah. I appreciate your time today and your candor and I really enjoyed talking to you. I'm completely out of my depth, but I had a good time.

[Ellie Kemper]

It was great, David. I really enjoyed talking to you too.

[David Duchovny]

Hey. Hey. Some post. Nate Silver thoughts. What a fascinating cat that is. I love saying fascinating cat like I'm a 50s hipster. Yeah, I guess what I missed asking maybe I don't know if we got into this, but you know, on the Edge, this book that we're talking about, his book, is it a self help book? You know, was the idea that these behaviors that he's describing in the book, these risk taking behaviors, is it possible to get better at risk to living in the uncertainty, to living with the prospect of failure, whether it's monetary or spiritual or professional, whatever. Does he think of this book as a self help book and does he think of living with risk as an aspect of self help? Which is something interesting to think about because, you know, most of us, I think when I, when I think of self help, I think of how do I get content with what I have, how do I feel happy with what I have and not strive for more or not be comparing myself to others or, you know, I'm okay, you're okay. That kind of, that's pulling an example from years and years ago. That shows you my interest in self help books, which is pretty much nil. But I do think of this as kind of a self help podcast a little bit. And I wish I brought that up, but I have all these note cards here, you know, and I can't get to them all. Can't get to them all. There's more Fail Better with Lemonada Premium subscribers get exclusive access to bonus content. Like more of my behind the scenes thoughts on this episode. Subscribe now. And Apple Podcasts. Fail Better is a production of Lemonada Media in coordination with King Baby. It is produced by Keegan Zemma, Aria Bracci, Donnie Matias and Paula Kaplan. Our engineer is Brian Castillo. Our SVP of weekly is Steve Nelson. Our VP of new content is Rachel Neal. Special thanks to Carl Ackerman, Tom Kupinski and Brad Davidson. The show is executive produced by Stephanie Whittleswax Jessica Cordova Kramer and me, David Duchovny. The music is also by me and my band, the lovely Colin Lee, Pat McCusker, Mitch Stewart, Davis Rowan and Sebastian Modak. You can find us online at Lemonada Media and you can find me avid Duchovny. Follow Fail Better wherever you get your podcasts or listen ad free on Amazon Music with your prime membership.

[Reshma Sajani]

Hi everyone, Gloria Rivera here, and we are back for another season of no One Is Coming to Save Us, a podcast about America's childcare crisis. This season we're delving deep into five critical issues facing our country through the lens of childcare, poverty, mental health, housing, climate change and the public school system. By exploring these connections, we aim to highlight that childcare is not an isolated issue, but one that influences all facets of American life. Season four of no One Is Coming to Save Us is out now wherever you get your podcasts. Are you in bed by 10? Can you feel your hormones raging more than ever? Do you wake up every day wondering, is this it? Guess what? You're not alone. Welcome to my so Called Midlife, a weekly podcast hosted by me, Reshma Sajani. On this show, we're going to expose the con we've been sold about middle age, figure out what the fuck we want from our lives and how to get there. We'll have help from guests like Julia Louis Dreyfus, Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, and Ilana Glaser. You can listen to my so Called Midlife ad free on Amazon Music.