Best Value Picks in Early Fantasy Football Mock Drafts | ESPN Fantasy

Summary

Fantasy Focus Football – "Best Value Picks in Early Fantasy Football Mock Drafts" (May 14, 2026)

Hosts:

• Liz Loza
• Producer Q

Episode Overview

This episode explores value picks in early fantasy football mock drafts for the 2026 season. Liz Loza, drawing on an intensive series of mock drafts with ESPN analysts, discusses which players are emerging as bargains (or getting overvalued) in current drafts. She covers top names with surging or falling ADPs, provides strategy for value drafting, and takes fantasy therapy questions from listeners.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Jeremiah Love: Polarizing Early Pick (00:44–03:20)

• Background: Jeremiah Love, rookie RB for the Cardinals, enters the NFL with dazzling college production—most notably 40 scrimmage TDs over his last two college seasons (seven more than any other FBS player).
• Athleticism: Second fastest RB 40-yard dash at the combine; elite receiver (20% target rate at Notre Dame – 85th percentile since 2018).
• Current Draft Status: Love’s ADP is rising; he's RB7 off the board in ESPN's consensus ranks, sometimes even the RB5 in mocks (ahead of Saquon Barkley and Ashton Gentry).
• Loza’s Take: “That is too rich for my blood. ... I have him ranked currently as my RB9. He is the ESPN consensus ranked RB10. So to go fifth at the position a little bit high.” — Liz Loza (02:11)

2. Jadarian Price: Forgotten Value Amid the Hype (03:24–05:59)

• Profile: Love’s Notre Dame teammate, now rookie RB for the Seahawks—a team with a clearer path to immediate opportunity.
• ADP & Comparison: Being drafted as RB24 (ADP 74), significantly behind Love, even though both are likely to surpass 220 carries.
• Context: Price seen as having less receiving upside, but Seattle offense projected as far more efficient than Arizona’s.
• Draft Strategy Insight:
  “If Love becomes too expensive ... remember that you can find upside at the position four to sometimes six rounds later by investing in Price.” — Liz Loza (05:40)
• Player Comparison: Price is going alongside DeAndre Swift, Travion Henderson, and Quinshawn Judkins—each with their own red flags.
• Verdict: Preference for Price as a better value pick and as a hedge against overpaying for Love.

3. Late-Round Wide Receiver Talk: Brian Thomas Jr. (06:04–08:41)

• 2025 Recap: “Arguably the biggest bust at the wide receiver position in 2025.” (06:04)
• Current Status: Now consistently drafted in the 9th round, sandwiched with Jacobi Myers and Parker Washington (both Jaguars teammates).
• Stat Breakdown:
  • Myers (2025, JAX): 12 FPPG (Weeks 10–18)
  • Parker Washington: 14.6 FPPG (Weeks 10–18)
  • Brian Thomas Jr.: 8.9 FPPG (Weeks 10–18)
• Loza’s Analysis:
  • Acknowledges last year’s disappointment but sees improved route-running and reduced drops late in the season.
  • “BTJ’s ceiling is just higher than either of his teammates and that is what I want to invest in despite the red flags—baked into his price in the 9th or 10th round. … This to me because of the value is a market correction that I might feel compelled to invest in.” (07:39–08:32)
• Producer Q Reaction: “You’re really convincing—I have BTJ on block, but I might move them mute now.” (08:41)

4. Deep Value: Mike Evans as San Francisco’s Alpha? (11:35–13:09)

• Context: “Yeah, is entering his age 33 season, switching teams and coming off a career low effort … an injury riddled 2025 prevented Mike Evans from breaking Jerry Rice’s record …” (11:35)
• Landing Spot: Now with the 49ers, in a depleted but high-octane WR group.
• Upside: Projected for 100+ targets and double-digit TD potential; currently outside top-30 WRs by ADP—potential to be a late bench/flex steal.
• Quote: “It is hard to imagine Evans landing in a better spot than San Francisco. ... That is incredible value—value, in fact, that I not only appreciate but can fully lean into.” — Liz Loza (12:27–13:09)

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Fantasy Therapy: Listener Questions (13:26–16:56)

Who is Your 101? (13:26–14:11)

• Liz’s Pick: “This one’s easy. It is Bijan Robinson for me. He is an every down talent attached to a play caller … [and] incredibly durable.” (13:35)
• Notes: No major goal-line competition in Atlanta; volume and health are the keys.

Is Justin Herbert a Sleeper This Year? (14:31–15:46)

• Loza: “Herbert has gone largely undrafted … I picked him up a couple of times, but not until like the 14th round as my QB2 … Might be a hot take: Justin Herbert could be this year’s Trevor Lawrence.” (14:39–15:41)
• Rationale: O-line back to health; Mike McDaniel system; stealth upside as a late-draft backup.

How Should We View the Lions Offense (Post-Ben Johnson Era)? (16:05–17:26)

• Loza: No major drop-off fantasy-wise; Gibbs and Amon-Ra are firm first-rounders; spotlight on Sam LaPorta as a comeback TE value (“going in the 7th or 8th round ... I have him ranked as my tight end seven.” – 17:19)
• Health Caveat: “Ain’t nobody used to have a bad back, but assuming [LaPorta] does in fact have a good back ... 12 fantasy points per game average is a good barometer.” (16:51)

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On skyrocketing RB ADPs:
  “I will be completely transparent and admit to everybody listening ... I have [Love] ranked currently as my RB9. He is the ESPN consensus ranked RB10. So to go fifth at the position [is] a little bit high.” (02:11)
• On value-shopping RBs:
  “If Love becomes too expensive … do not panic. … Invest in Price’s upside.” (05:40)
• On Brian Thomas Jr.’s potential:
  “BTJ's ceiling is just higher … and that is what I want to invest in despite the red flags—baked into his price in the 9th or 10th round.” (07:39)
• On Mike Evans as a 49er:
  “It is hard to imagine Evans landing in a better spot than San Francisco ... That is incredible value—value, in fact, that I not only appreciate but can fully lean into.” (12:27)
• On Sam LaPorta:
  “Assuming he returns to health though … I think that 12 fantasy points per game average is a good barometer of what we can expect in 2026.” (16:52)
• Producer Q’s playful banter:
  “You’re really convincing—I have BTJ on block, but I might move them mute now.” (08:41)
• Contact:
  “Go ahead and vent. Ask us anything. Or almost anything. The number to call is 323-391-4855.” (19:08)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

| Topic | Timestamp | |-------------------------------------------------|-------------| | Jeremiah Love hype and caution | 00:44–03:20 | | Jadarian Price mid-round value | 03:24–05:59 | | Targeting late-round upside: Brian Thomas Jr. | 06:04–08:41 | | Mike Evans, potential 49ers WR1 | 11:35–13:09 | | 101 (First Overall) Pick Discussion | 13:26–14:11 | | Is Justin Herbert a sleeper? | 14:31–15:46 | | Detroit Lions offense outlook | 16:05–17:26 |

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Recap and Closing Thought

Episode takeaway:
Value is everywhere if you’re willing to let the market push the latest hype targets a bit higher than you want to pay. Don’t panic—pivot to mid- and late-round players with clear upside (e.g. Jadarian Price, Brian Thomas Jr., and Mike Evans). As Liz said:
“Awareness creates opportunity.” (19:06)

List of call-in line for questions: 323-391-4855

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Useful for listeners:
This episode is packed with actionable advice—specifically on how to avoid overpaying for hyped rookies, pivoting to more reasonably priced upside backs, and scanning later rounds for post-hype or veteran value. If you skipped the hype cycle, you can still draft a strong roster by targeting the names falling through the cracks.

Transcript

[A]

All right, trigger warning. I'm going to open an old wound here and talk about a player that was arguably the biggest bust at the wide receiver position in 2025. It is. Hey, I'm Liz Loza. This is Facts versus Feelings, and today's fact is that awareness creates opportunity.

[B]

Hello, Liz Loza, Producer Q. Out of the bullpen and back into the producer's box. And I'm very excited to be with you today because you've been doing a ton of mock drafting as a part of the mock draf, which, as I understand it, is a series of 10 mock drafts with the same 10 ESPN analysts. Using what you've learned, let's discuss a player that we've got a lot of questions about in fantasy therapy.

[A]

Happy to I have found this project very illuminating and I wanted to discuss Jeremiah Love because fantasy heads have been hyped about this player since before. Well before he was drafted by the Cardinals in April. And for good reason. I mean, just to review, his first 40 scrimmage touchdowns over the last two collegiate seasons were seven more than any other player in the FBS. He also ran the second fastest 40among all running backs at the combine just this past year. And this part is very Q this Q. This part is very cute. See, you're in my head. This part is very key and that is his ability as a receiver. He has elite hands. For context, Love was targeted on 20% of his routes at Notre Dame, which by the way, ranks in the 85th percentile among running backs since 2018. So we know this kid has a dynamic, versatile skill set and can work as an every down player. Which was also why fantasy fans were so disappointed to see him land in Arizona, a theoretically crowded backfield, one that he wouldn't have as much of an opportunity. And yet, despite despite all that consternation about his landing spot, Love's ADP is climbing. He is currently and noting that this is the middle of May, the seventh running back being selected off of boards, just ahead of both Saquon Barkley and Ashton Genty. He's going in the middle of the second round and let's call this a 10 team PPR draft, full point PPR draft. I did a mock. That's his current ADP. But like I did a mock in which he was the fifth running back selected. And for context, again in order, Bijan Robinson went first, Jameer Gibbs went second, CMC went third, Devon Hn went fourth, and then Love was selected. I'm gonna be honest right now, that is too rich for my blood. I am surprised that this hype is building because there was so we had a conversation about managing our expectations and yet you know we love shiny toys in fantasy. I will be completely transparent and admit to everybody listening and watching that I have him ranked currently again as my RB9. He is the ESPN consensus ranked RB10. So to go fifth at the position a little bit high.

[B]

Let's migrate to the mid rounds. Now is there any name that really stuck out to you?

[A]

Yeah, it's actually a player that has been connected to Jeremiah Love for a while. His former college teammate Jadarian Price also by the way selected in the first round of the NFL draft and this is different by a team with a legitimate need at the position. Fantasy heads were so excited about Price's landing spot for this exact reason and yet he is currently the 24th running back being selected with an ADP of 74. Now I understand that Price doesn't have the same receiving potential and talent that Love does and that we are all playing in PPR friendly formats and so that needs to be calculated accordingly. But both of these backs are expected and projected to clear 220 carries and and furthermore the super bowl champion Seattle Seahawks are more likely to put forth an efficient offense when compared to the Arizona Cardinals, a team by the way with plus one 25 odds to go over four and a half wins per draft Kings. So you know again I understand this is not an apples to apples comparison and I in full transparency have love ranked 15 spots ahead of Price. But we're talking about drafting and a massive part of drafting is value and I would prefer to invest in Price's upside despite the potential question marks surrounding his talent, the hands right or his situation new play caller because when I compare him and what he offers and the volume at his avail to the other players at the that are going off the board around the same spot. I just prefer Price so that you guys can know what I've learned. I'm talking about players like DeAndre Swift. Well he's still in a timeshare. Travion Henderson is going off the board around the same spot. That's a player who dealt with ball security issues and also is in a timeshare. Quinshawn Judkins coming off of a late season ending ankle injury and a member of the Cleveland Browns. That offense isn't screaming efficiency to me at all historically speaking. So so Price to me is presenting a lot of upside and I guess the message that I want to share to drafters is that if Love becomes too expensive. If everybody is reaching for him early, do not panic. Instead, remember that you can find upside at the position four to sometimes six rounds later by investing in price.

[B]

Okay, let's discuss the later rounds now. Were there any surprising names?

[A]

All right, trigger warning. I'm going to open an old wound here and talk about a player that was arguably the biggest bust at the wide receiver position in 2025. It is Brian Thomas Jr. Because I am curious to see how his 2026 stock shapes up. Right now I can tell you that he is consistently going in the ninth round of drafts and this is curious. He is being sandwiched by between Jacobi Myers and Parker Washington, his teammates in Jacksonville, to review because a lot of people just sort of turned all of this off last year. Jacoby Myers averaged 12 fantasy points per game after debuting in Jacksonville from weeks 10 through 18. Parker Washington, the breakout star, the waiver wire stud for so many players. He averaged 14.6 fantasy points per game during that same span of time. Brian Thomas Jr. On the other hand, we gotta slow it down because his production slowed down. Womp Womp. He averaged 8.9 fantasy points per game during that span. Now I understand wanting to invest in Jacksonville's offense, especially given how everything started to click down the stretch for this team but in the 9th or even 10th round. Just like Eric Moody. Actually now that I'm thinking of it, but mentioned in last week's episode, this point of the draft, I would like to I I want more upside and to Me Brian Thomas Jr. Offers that in a more substantial way than either Myers who's a slot receiver for the most part, or Parker Washington who is late to come out. And I believe 6th round pick BTJ is still a first round talent. He turns 23 years old just next week. So happy early birthday Brian Thomas Jr. And while he's certainly disappointed, and I'm not trying to create a narrative to say anything else, last year if you look over the course of the season, his play did improve his routes, he was able to clean up his routes and he got rid of a lot of the drops that he had at the top of the season towards the end of it. So to me BTJ ceiling is just higher than either of his teammates and that is what I want to invest in despite the red flags which are by the way baked into his price in the 9th or 10th round. So this to me because of the value is a market correction that I might feel compelled to invest in.

[B]

Liz, I got to be honest, you're really convincing I have BTJ on block, but I might move them mute now. But before we move on, don't forget to like and subscribe to this video to lock in with us. And yes, the voicemail line is back. Call in with your hot takes and questions at Liz, I'm gonna put you on the spot here. What's that number?

[A]

Oh gosh. Okay, okay, okay. I guess it's what I deserve for talking about BTJ. The number is 323-391-4855. Nailed it.

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[A]

And now let's talk about a guy who, yeah, is entering his age 33 season, switching teams and coming off of a career low effort. But you know what Daddy I love him. An injury riddled 2025 prevented Mike Evans from breaking Jerry Rice's record and registering a 12th consecutive 1000 plus receiving yard effort. I mean I don't know, maybe the hamstring issues but if I think about it, probably not. The clavicle are signs of decline. Regardless, it is hard to imagine Evans landing in a better spot than San Francisco. I mean the 49ers receiving core is wide open to review. Brandon Aiuk he's done Zo Juwan Jennings off to Minnesota. George Kittle coming off of an Achilles tear. Ricky Pierceall can't stay healthy. Christian Kirk a slot receiver and stribling a reach that makes Mike Evans Kyle Shanahan's alpha. A player who is projected in this offense to clear 100 looks and flirt with double digit touchdowns. A player who is probably going to be your wide receiver 4 or even wide receiver 5 and initially at least start on your bench because he is being drafted outside of the top 30 fantasy players at the position. That is incredible value value in fact that not only appreciate but can fully lean into.

[E]

This is a safe place.

[F]

It's a place where we can feel

[E]

free sharing our feelings.

[A]

Now let's get comfortable on the couch and dive into fantasy therapy, a safe space for all your fantasy questions. Producer Q what do we have this week?

[B]

All right Liz, let's keep the mock draft vibes going. D Mooskis wants to know if you were drafting today who would be your 101 and why?

[A]

This one's easy. It is Bijan Robinson for me. He is an every down talent attached to a play caller in Kevin Stefanski this year who obviously loves to establish the run. Tyler Algier no longer in Atlanta and available to poach the goal line. I don't think Brian Robinson, who is theoretically replacing him going is going to do it as effectively. Bijan by the way, incredibly durable zero. Let's knock on some wood. Injuries over his first three seasons in the league and he's still only 24 years old. Volume makes him king. There you have it.

[B]

I will say I think that there are a lot of people that are split between Gibbs and Bijan Robinson. I as always will be team Liz Loza and I think Bijan the play as well too. I'm excited to see your response on this next question because this is a player that I've personally kept an eye on. Ph Balance asks Is Justin Herbert a sleeper pick this upcoming season?

[A]

Ooh, that is an interesting question because I did note while doing the mock draft project that Herbert has gone largely undrafted. Truth be told, I picked him up in a couple of times, but not until like the 14th round as my QB2 just for backup reasons. Um, I think we should talk about the reasons why. Obviously the O line last year destroyed the Chargers offensive effort. Though sneakily, the lack of protection did make Herbert scramble a whole heck of a lot. He actually finished the season as the QB2 in rushing yards behind Josh Allen. Hopefully though, that's not what we want out of a strong armed quarterback like Justin Herbert. Hopefully he can trade some of that rushing production for passing production. With the offensive line back to health and fully bolstered and in a scheme designed by Mike McDaniel, who I think will put Herbert in a in a position to succeed, he has plenty of receiving talent around him. I think in fact here might be a hot take. Justin Herbert could be this year's Trevor Lawrence.

[B]

So in that event then a little bit of a darling in the late rounds to undrafted. So on that note, let's kind of shift a little bit and hit on a team that's gone on a lot of changes in recent years. Desmond Borges says, what's your view on the Lions offense now two years removed of Ben Johnson?

[A]

Well, I don't think things change from a fantasy perspective that much. I mean you still have Jameer Gibbs and Amon Ross St. Brown as both real life and fantasy stars. Both both first round picks. I have been interested in doing this mock project though to see Sam LaPorta return to fantasy relevance. Obviously LaPorta wowed as a rookie with 10 touchdowns in his inaugural season. His production though over the past couple of years and since then has waned considerably. Last year he was dealing with a herniated disc issue which obviously ended his season, but before the injury occurred he was averaging 12 fantasy points per game. Now, assuming he returns to health though, I have to add the caveat that saying, ain't nobody used to have a bad back, but assuming he does in fact have a good back in 2026, I think that 12 fantasy points per game average is a good barometer of what we can expect in 2026. And from an ADP perspective, he is going in the seventh or eighth round behind Harold Fannin and just ahead of Travis Kelce. I have him ranked as my tight end seven for for the season. Right now.

[F]

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Last call.

[A]

Today we learned that it might be time to unblock BTJ that ain't nobody used to have a bad back except for hopefully Sam laporta. And that awareness creates opportunity. There's also an opportunity for you to hit up our fantasy therapy hotline and leave us a voicemail. Go ahead and vent. Ask us anything. Or almost anything. The number to call is 323-391-4855. Until next time. May your facts be solid, your feelings be right, and your bus be someone else's.