Breakouts & Busts in the Fantasy Playoffs: Week 16 Start/Sit Guide! | Fantasy Focus 🏈

Summary

Fantasy Focus Football — Dec 18, 2025

Episode Title: Breakouts & Busts in the Fantasy Playoffs: Week 16 Start/Sit Guide!

Hosts: Field Yates, Stephania Bell, Mike Clay, Daniel Dopp
ESPN Fantasy Football experts Field Yates, Daniel Dopp, Mike Clay, and Stephania Bell discuss start/sit decisions, breakouts and busts in the Week 16 fantasy playoffs, injury updates, critical matchups, weather concerns, and streaming recommendations.

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Episode Theme

This episode dives deep into Week 16’s critical fantasy playoff matchups, offering start/sit guidance for pivotal players, examining injury and weather impacts, and debating breakout and bust candidates. The crew aims to arm playoff managers with the sharpest, up-to-the-minute intel to make those season-defining lineup decisions.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Stage & Week 16 Theme

• Only four teams left, so the focus is on major fantasy contributors, not deep flyers.
• Most topics and debates revolve around highly-started players and key flex decisions.
• Not just "who got you here," but "who gets you through" to a championship.

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2. Critical Player Spotlights & Matchups

a. Saquon Barkley’s Upside Stretch

• Field Yates: “Maybe we’ve reached one of those (hot) pockets for Saquon.” (04:08)
  • Barkley’s trending up: 17.7 fantasy PPG over last two weeks.
  • Bad Commanders matchup: 5th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs, recent 20+ point games allowed.
  • Two matchups with Commanders in final three weeks; solid slate through Week 18.
  • Barkley seen as a lineup lock with RB1 upside given volume and opponent.

b. Chiefs’ Passing Game After Mahomes

• Patrick Mahomes is OUT for the season; major implications for Chiefs skill positions.
• Gardner Minshew steps in; pessimism about fantasy ceiling.
• Mike Clay: “He doesn’t run like he used to … good matchup, but he’s not going to be a starting option.” (06:09)
• Skill Player Fallout:
  • Travis Kelce: Slight downgrade, but still tight end startable.
  • Rashee Rice: If cleared from concussion protocol, remains a top-10 WR; Chiefs eliminated, could lean cautious on activation.
  • Xavier Worthy: Only startable if Rice is OUT ("25-30 range," not a top-10 lock), but consider as flex.
  • Running Backs: Still a committee; best to avoid.
  • Chiefs DEF: A solid streamer vs Titans.

c. RB Committee Headaches: Omariyan Hampton vs Kamani Vidal

• Hampton stronger in fantasy points, fewer total yards due to one long Vidal play, but only 33% snap share since return.
• Daniel Dopp: “Is this too much of a committee?” (12:58)
• Mike Clay: “Some guys are clear lead backs ... Hampton is not right now.” (14:00)
• Hampton: upside RB2/flex, positive matchup vs Cowboys' forgiving run D, but carries risk of limited snaps.

d. Packers WRs: Jaden Reed and Christian Watson Injury Update

• If Watson sits, Reed gains appeal, but "spread it around" approach means no massive bump.
• Mike Clay: “Even with Watson, [Reed]’s a flex option ... I’d boost his projection a little ... not a lot.” (16:13)

e. Colts With Philip Rivers Under Center

• Rivers back at QB (filled in last week): limited passing, one TD, negative rushing; better Week 16 matchup vs 49ers.
• Mike Clay: “Taylor’s still a lineup lock. Pittman’s close … only one lineup lock in the Colts offense.” (19:07)
• Colts skill guys have faded in recent weeks; tough to trust except for Taylor and, to a lesser degree, Pittman.

f. Tedroa McMillan Slump Watch

• Poor recent fantasy output, low target share; Jalen Coker outproducing him over past three weeks.
• Daniel Dopp: “I’m okay benching Tedroa McMillan this week … if I have a better option.” (26:06)
• Not an auto-bench, but no longer reliable vs TB.

g. Harold Fannin’s Breakout (Browns TE) vs Bills D

• Massive target share & production last two weeks (Tight End 4).
• Toughest TE matchup vs Bills this week, but Field Yates: “You have to start him … top 5 consideration.” (29:19)
• Only reason for slight worry: “If he goes 5 for 52, that’s probably inline with where the Bills have been.” (30:01)

h. Bucs WRs: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka

• Mike Clay: “Evans has 18+ fantasy points in 9 of 10 vs Panthers.” (32:05)
• Evans returned with 12 targets, 132 yds. Godwin finally scored, nearly 100% snaps.
• Order: Evans > Godwin > Egbuka; both top 30, Evans higher due to dominance over Carolina.
• Bench Evans at your peril; Godwin solid option, Egbuka a longer shot.

i. Travis Etienne: Smash Spot With Lowered Expectations

• Hot streak: 6 of last 7 with 15+ fantasy points.
• Bronco’s run D: toughest matchup in the league.
• Daniel Dopp: “Still a lineup lock for me, but with lowered expectations. He is RB15.” (38:11)

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3. WR/CB Matchups — Upgrades & Downgrades

(Mike Clay’s Playbook Highlights)

Upgrades:

• Chargers WRs vs Cowboys: Cowboys hemorrhage fantasy points, start Lad McConkey as WR3/flex; Keenan Allen riskier.
• Chiefs WRs vs Titans: If Rice plays, top-10 lock; Worthy in play if Rice is out, Titans secondary gets shredded.
• Cardinals WRs vs Falcons: Both Marvin Harrison Jr. (if active) and Michael Wilson viable, great matchup.
• DK Metcalf vs Lions: “Lions have allowed a WR to hit 26.95+ points in four straight games, and it’s not all superstars.” (42:56)

Downgrades:

• Jaylen Waddle: No Tua, faces Bengals’ DJ Turner (stifling shadow coverage); consider benching.
• Brian Thomas Jr.: Faces Pat Surtain II shadow, Denver has allowed only 5 WR TDs all year.
• Jerry Jeudy: Faces Christian Benford, who has smothered WRs recently.
• Cowboys WRs & George Pickens: Chargers allow almost nothing to WRs since Week 9; “Since week nine, one receiver has reached 12.5 fantasy points against the Chargers.” (47:13)
• Wandale Robinson: Minimal upside vs Vikings’ league-best WR defense, but volume may keep him afloat.

Notable Conflict:

• Ongoing DK Metcalf vs George Pickens debate for flex/WR2 decision:
  • Daniel Dopp: “Emotionally feel better about DK than Pickens ... that’s a tough one.” (44:10)
  • Chat poll favored DK 57% to 43%.

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4. Weather Watch: Thursday Night Football (Rams vs Seahawks)

• Potential 40 mph wind gusts and rain — could be the most impactful weather game of the season, directly affecting playoff outcomes.
• Mike Clay: “If they’re sustained 20 mph winds, it’s a big problem.”
• Monitor for kickers (Jason Myers in particular); may be forced to pivot last minute.

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5. Thursday Night Football: Who’s In, Who’s Out?

• Start at all costs: JSN, Puka Nacua are lineup locks.
  • Both are on >40% of playoff teams (top two WRs rostered in playoffs).
• Sit: Seahawks RBs, Sam Darnold, all other Seahawks/Catchers besides JSN.
• Rams WRs: Only Puka Nacua startable. Devontae Adams (listed as doubtful) out.
• Colby Parkinson: (SEA TE) Not impacted much by weather, low-ceiling, volume-based play in deep leagues.
• Matthew Stafford: Avoid if possible (“Needs 3 TDs or 250 & 2 w/ no turnovers to get above 18 FPs ... not against this defense in these conditions.”)
• Kyren Williams: Touchdown-dependent, little passing game role; outside top 20 RBs this week.
• DEFs: Seahawks D is most-rostered playoff DEF but start cautiously given Rams’ offense; consider streaming (Bills, Saints, etc) per personal options.

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6. Playoff Lineup & Emotional Decisions

• “What would I feel least bad about going down swinging with?” — emotional tiebreaker discussed for close calls (Evans/Godwin/Egbuka example).

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7. Fun & Notable Moments

• Hosts crowdsource critical start/sit dilemmas to Twitch/YouTube chat.
• Running jokes about rash stories, Oprah references, and Monopoly fund bets (Raheem Sanders).
• Standout quote, Daniel Dopp: “It also feels like more impossible to make the decision than it ever has.” (36:18)
• Mike Clay’s Raheem Sanders Monopoly Fund Pick: Kanata Mumfield (for a deep TD), gunning for 5th hit this season.
• Notable: Mike’s success rate in the Monopoly challenge, banter about allowing QBs as picks, and backup plans if active players are scratched.

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Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Field Yates (on Saquon Barkley): "Given where we were for a while, there was Saquon. 17.7 fantasy. Awesome." (04:08)
• Mike Clay (on Minshew replacing Mahomes): “He doesn’t really run as much as he used to when he was starting in Jacksonville.” (06:15)
• Daniel Dopp (on Omariyan Hampton): “Is this too much of a running back by committee?” (12:58)
• Mike Clay (on Packers WRs): “Even with Watson, [Reed]’s a flex option.” (16:12)
• Daniel Dopp (on McMillan): “It does not feel like there was a connection here between Tedro McMillan and Bryce Young that I feel comfortable in a win or go home matchup.” (26:06)
• Mike Clay (on Bucs WRs): “He [Evans] has 18 plus fantasy points in nine of his last 10 games against the Panthers. An average of 24.8.” (32:05)
• Daniel Dopp (on TNF Weather): “That’s huge. If there are sustained 20 mile an hour winds, it’s a big problem.” (53:22)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 03:20 – Week 16 Preview Begins
• 04:08 – Barkley’s Prime Playoff Schedule
• 05:56 – Chiefs Offense Outlook After Mahomes
• 11:47 – Omariyan Hampton vs Kamani Vidal Committee
• 15:24 – Packers WR Fallout If Watson Sits
• 18:32 – Colts’ Skill Positions with Philip Rivers
• 26:06 – Tedro McMillan Downtrend
• 28:56 – Harold Fannin’s Target Surge at TE
• 32:05 – Mike Evans’ History vs Panthers
• 38:11 – Travis Etienne: Lowered Expectations
• 38:29 – Mike Clay’s WR/CB Upgrades & Downgrades
• 53:07 – TNF: Weather Update & Game Outlook
• 55:28 – Rams/Seahawks: In/Out Decisions
• 62:11 – Raheem Sanders Monopoly Fund Segment
• 65:57 – Week 16 Final Advice / Sign-off

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Takeaways & Attitude

• Tone: Smart, lively, fantasy-focused and slightly irreverent. Plenty of inside jokes and playful banter, but zeroing in on actionable lineup advice.
• Message: With playoff stakes high, trust your proven studs first but don’t ignore injury news, weather, or hard data. Don't be afraid to make bold (but informed) calls, and don't let process-second-guessing undermine your confidence—sometimes it's the emotional tiebreaker that helps you sleep at night.

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Conclusion

This episode gives fantasy managers every angle needed for Week 16’s defining playoff matchups, spotlighting which stars remain must-starts, who carries snap or injury risk, and which weather games demand close monitoring. Whether deciding between big names like DK Metcalf and George Pickens, navigating the Chiefs without Mahomes, or scouring the waiver wire for a desperation hero, the crew provides both the stats and the “vibes” for guiding those do-or-die decisions.

Transcript

[Daniel Dopp]

There's a reason Chevy trucks are known for their dependability. Because they show up no matter the weather, push forward no matter the terrain, and deliver. That's why Chevrolet has earned more dependability awards for trucks than any other brand.

[Phil Jates]

In 2025, according to J.D. power.

[Daniel Dopp]

Because in every Chevy truck, like every.

[Phil Jates]

Chevy driver, dependability comes standard.

[Daniel Dopp]

Visit Chevy.com to learn more. Chevrolet received the highest total number of awards among all the trucks in the J.D. power 2025 U.S. vehicle Dependability Study Awards based on 2022 models. Newer models may be shown. Visit jdpower.com awards for more details. Chevrolet together.

[Phil Jates]

Let's drive.

[Daniel Dopp]

You're in the. What's good friends? Welcome into Fantasy Focus Football, presented by Wingstop alongside Phil Jates and Mike Clay. My name is Daniel Dopp, here to bring you an exciting Thursday show. We're talking Thursday Night Football. Huge game, Rams and Seahawks. We're also going to dive into our Week 16 Preview Part 1. Give you all the things that we need to be able to talk about. Make sure your lineups are set. Well, field, great to be able to see you, Mike. So excited you're here. We weren't sure if you were going to make it, obviously, but pumped to hear that your rash is obviously cleared up. Not contagious anymore for you.

[Mike Clay]

Can't steal that joke from field. That feels.

[Phil Jates]

No, it actually always plays.

[Daniel Dopp]

It never doesn't work.

[Phil Jates]

And I haven't used it at all this year. I know. Like, I actually made a pact to myself to see how long I could.

[Mike Clay]

Go without using it. And Daniel. Daniel stole your thunder.

[Phil Jates]

No, the best part was you used to use it against me at some point this year. And it was unbelievably perfect timing.

[Mike Clay]

It was like a giant group text or something. Yes, it was executives on it and everything.

[Phil Jates]

And I peed my pants laughing. And then the rash expanded, which made it worse. It made it worse. Oh, God.

[Daniel Dopp]

Anyways, we're really excited to be here. It's gonna be a lot of fun to be on the show today. Shout out to our friends over at trophy smack. Visit trophysmac.com use the promo code focus10 for 10% off your order over there.

[Phil Jates]

Why do the dumbest things make me laugh?

[Daniel Dopp]

It's great.

[Phil Jates]

That joke will forever play. I will be on. I will be on. You know, I'll be in, like just on my deathbed and I will still be laughing about rash jokes.

[Daniel Dopp]

It's never not funny. Never not funny. Also, we love Eric Moody. Shout out to Eric Moody. Hanging out in the YouTube chat follow him on social media. Rick N. Moody. Make sure you ask him all the questions. He is so great being able to hang out in there. Give him all the love. And with that being said, my friends, do you have anything you want to talk about before we dive into football? Because people want to know about football this week.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah. No, we have a lot to get to but we need to save some time for the Thursday night game because there is a lot to to unpack on this, including weather. This might be the weather game of the week and maybe, pardon me, maybe the most impactful weather game of the season in terms of knocking people out of the playoffs or helping them advance. I know you have JSN investment.

[Phil Jates]

A lot of people have.

[Mike Clay]

The Rams are starting Stafford and a Coca and iron Williams and Colby. Parkinson's is dreaming. There's so many names from this game that are going to, that are going to determine matchups this week and if that weather and the wind and the rain becomes an issue on top of the fact that we, we have two of the best defenses in the NFL. Yeah, Adam's injury, there's a lot. So we'll spend a lot of time on that.

[Phil Jates]

Wow. I cannot lie. I have been a little busy this week, obviously shopping for Mike's Christmas gifts, of course. So I have not checked the weather for tonight. So I'm excited to hear what. Yeah, that's what Gingerz Mike Clay has to say.

[Mike Clay]

TNF preview.

[Phil Jates]

Okay. All right, let's dive into that in just a little bit then.

[Daniel Dopp]

Heck yeah. Let's kick things off though with our Week 16 preview, Part 1. We each brought a couple of topics to the table field. I'm going to start with you, my friend.

[Phil Jates]

I would say that generally speaking, most of our topics, or at least the ones that I submitted are towards players that like you're probably starting and like, what's the outlook for them as opposed to like, hey, this guy was a third in receiver snaps for the Commanders last week.

[Daniel Dopp]

Possible.

[Phil Jates]

Deeply consideration. Probably not the tenor of most of my topics this week.

[Mike Clay]

There's only four teams left and you're probably not starting those guys if you're in the final four. But there are some of them.

[Phil Jates]

I mean there's, there are some. We'll dive into the few exceptions there, but think big here. And one of those names is Saquon Barkley guys, because uh, I, I always talk about this how there are season long players and there are pocket players. Sometimes you can have season long players with pockets of value. Maybe we've reached one of those for Saquon.

[Mike Clay]

Barbara.

[Phil Jates]

Right, Because Saquon has been good the past couple of weeks and I know that this is not off the charts phenomenal. That being said, over the past two games, 17.7 fantasy points. Given where we were for a while, there was Saquon. 17.7 fantasy. Awesome. Yeah, Saquon got a little bit of involvement in the passing game last week as well after back to back games with with no receptions. But the matchup is ripe for a big day for Saquon on Saturday, people. It is Saturday at 5pm that the Eagles and the Commanders face off. They actually play twice in the final three weeks of the season. The Commanders have allowed the 27th fewest fantasy points. So they're bad against running backs. They've allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season and four of the five top scoring running backs over the past five games against the Commanders. Twenty plus points including Tyrone Tracy last week who had a big day for the Commanders. I think he found the end zone both as a runner and as a receiver, did Tyrone Tracy. So it's a good matchup here. A good opportunity for the Eagles on a short week to lean into Saquon Barkley. He has been playing better. I don't think they'll get Lane Johnson back. We don't do much offensive line talk here on Fantasy Focus, but there are some interesting splits with and without Lane for the Eagles offense as a whole. But still a great opportunity for Saquon to get you maybe 20ish fantasy points on Saturday afternoon.

[Daniel Dopp]

Absolutely. I am believing in Saquon Mark Barkley now more than I have basically at any point in the season with what he's done recently in the matchups that he's got.

[Phil Jates]

So we got the Raiders last week, the Commanders this week, they have next.

[Mike Clay]

Week, the Bills, the Bills and then Washington again.

[Phil Jates]

So if you play into week 18, pretty tasty slate there for Saquon. But even if you don't next week, if they can play their customary defense against Buffalo, then a good opportunity as well for them because we know the Buffalo Bills defense remains very vulnerable against running backs.

[Mike Clay]

Yes, sir.

[Daniel Dopp]

All right, Mike, Mike Clay, you come up next.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah, speaking of highly impactful players, Patrick Mahomes guys is not going to play anymore the rest of the season. So there are implications. We'll start with Gardner Minshew and if this guy, I mean think about it. Patrick Mahomes, of course, a top five fantasy quarterback throughout this season. Bless you. Excuse me, Can Minshew step in and Be fantasy relevant down the stretch. I'm pessimistic on that one for sure.

[Daniel Dopp]

Can I ask a real quick question, Mike? Is this Gardener Minshew? If you look at that. Look at those two bars, like, that looks exactly like Gardner Minshew wearing Chief's colors.

[Phil Jates]

Yes. And like, if it's not Gardner Minshew, who is it?

[Daniel Dopp]

Let's do that.

[Phil Jates]

Charlie Whitehurst.

[Daniel Dopp]

Come on, guys. I mean, come on.

[Mike Clay]

Oh, yeah.

[Phil Jates]

Look at that. I mean, that's really close.

[Daniel Dopp]

That's really close.

[Phil Jates]

If we had AI, we could get Gardner's headshot, the actual headshot.

[Daniel Dopp]

We only have play I here. We don't have AI.

[Mike Clay]

That was foreshadowing the whole season over your shoulder, Minshew.

[Phil Jates]

And that's a Mahomes voodoo doll right there.

[Mike Clay]

That's what it is.

[Daniel Dopp]

Anyway, sorry, I didn't mean to interrupt you.

[Mike Clay]

I just saw that. Well, well worth the interruption. Look, Minshew has played extensively the last two years. Not this year, only his five pass attempts, but with the Colts in 2023, Raiders in 2024. During those stints, there were 22 games in which he played at least 70% of the snaps. He averaged 12 and a half fantasy points. He's not very good fantasy hit 18 three times. All of those were in 2023. He doesn't really run as much as he used to when he was starting in Jacksonville. It is a good matchup, but he's not going to be a starting option. What we're really concerned about is the skill guys. And Daniel, you talked a little bit about this yesterday, but I looked at some of the other players that were his top targets. Michael Pittman had 95 catches, 988 yards and three touchdowns at 16. About 16 and a half fantasy points per game.

[Phil Jates]

That's good.

[Mike Clay]

13 games with Minshew in 2023.

[Daniel Dopp]

Yeah.

[Mike Clay]

Jonathan Taylor, 16.9 points per game at nine games with MUU that season, which was fine. Yep. Not this year's. Not what he's done this year, but yeah.

[Phil Jates]

But solid him.

[Mike Clay]

No. Raiders were over 15 fantasy points per game and eight Minshew games last season. But Devonte Adams, Brock Bowers and Jacobe Myers were all in the 13.6 to 15 range. So he was doing enough.

[Daniel Dopp]

A couple of boom games in there.

[Mike Clay]

But he was doing enough to get them. Adams only played a few games with him because he was hurt. But anyway, he's done enough to get those top skill guys the ball. Yeah, and that's notable because we have Travis Kelsey, who I didn't really move the needle on him much. They played the Titans this week. I have him tight end date, so he's still startable, but not a lineup block rush. Rashi Rice, nice job. Boom. This one's tricky. He's in the concussion protocol. We're gonna get to that.

[Phil Jates]

Well, we should talk about it.

[Mike Clay]

Oh, yeah, yeah. He's in the concussion protocol, so we'll see if he plays. If he does, I still view him as lineup lock. Terrific matchup against the Titans this week. More on in the Shadow Report later. If he's out, obviously we'll talk about the implications there. Xavier Worthy, who I right now I view as benching. Okay.

[Phil Jates]

Yeah, let's do that now.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah, I, I, well, yeah, that's where I was going. I think that Worthy becomes a guy you feel more confident starting. He saw a lot of targets early this year when, when Rice was out. If not, I'm not going to start him if Rice plays Worthy out. If Rice is out, then more of these in and then I'm probably not going to start Hollywood Brown if he's back or Juju or Taekwond Thornton, I would avoid those guys.

[Daniel Dopp]

Is Worthy if Rice is out and Worthy is in, is Worthy in as a lineup lock for you or do you think that there is some consideration as to how deep he'll be in that flex?

[Mike Clay]

Say around 25th, 25 to 30?

[Daniel Dopp]

Okay.

[Mike Clay]

It's no, no Mahomes, obviously, but he should see a lot of targets if Rice is out.

[Daniel Dopp]

Rice, where do you have Rashi Rice? Assuming that he plays right now, is he a top ten?

[Phil Jates]

I have his wide receiver. Eight. You're at five.

[Mike Clay]

Okay.

[Daniel Dopp]

So we all see him as a top ten guy. Yep. If there's no Rashi Rice, then like we will obviously see a downgrade because we're not going to put Xavier Worthy up that high.

[Mike Clay]

So.

[Daniel Dopp]

But still, it feels a lot better if there is no Rashi.

[Mike Clay]

So yeah, if Rice goes, Rice is the only lineup lock from this offense. Kelsey's close, sure, but like Worthy, the running backs, we're avoiding them. Pacheco played more last week, but there's still a committee there. Hunt's still leading that. We're avoiding that. So, yeah, this is not an offense you have to feel like you need to invest much in.

[Daniel Dopp]

Don't love that. Chiefs defense could be a line of block against this Titans team too. Just in case you roster them.

[Phil Jates]

Yeah, yeah.

[Daniel Dopp]

All right. We don't do a lot of defense talk. I just don't throw it in there.

[Mike Clay]

So.

[Phil Jates]

Yeah, but I agree on that. And I think today looms large for Rashi Rice as well. It's gonna be huge, obviously. Right. But if he is a DMP today, Thursday, it's hard to go from whatever phase you are in that means you can't practice to playing on Sunday. So we see him today, maybe there is a chance. But if you don't see him today, I think we can start to count on him not playing.

[Mike Clay]

Not to mention that. I mean, I know this doesn't really matter for concussions, but they are eliminated. So even if he's clear cleared it or close to it, there's no reason to really listen.

[Phil Jates]

I think it's fair to introduce that variable because, again, he's either going to be cleared or not cleared. Right. But, like, this is the time of the year where teams across the NFL will be making roster decisions that are reflective of their state. I mean, maybe the jets might tell us otherwise, but, like, the jets are playing Brady Cook now. Yeah.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah. And they expect one or both of Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor to be back.

[Phil Jates]

Yeah. And they're still going to play Brady Cook. Still. Like what? But. And so the question would be, what's the value in playing a guy like.

[Mike Clay]

Well, they have the Saints defense in fantasy this week, so that's why.

[Phil Jates]

But Rashi Rice, worth noting. Extension eligible after this season. Yeah, he has taken some huge hits recently. Maybe there is a little bit of a protective measure here. He has shown his value to this offense when healthy. Got to be smart about things.

[Daniel Dopp]

I'd like to think that the Chiefs would like to keep him and Patrick Mahomes as intact and together for the future as they possibly can. However, for us in fantasy, man, I just need Rashi out there for the squad. If he helped you get here at this point. So, like, we really need him. I want to ask you guys, last week I wanted to have a little bit more faith in Omarion Hampton. Didn't work out against the Kansas City Chiefs this week against the Dallas Cowboys. But it's not just about the match. I want to talk about a couple of the things here because there's a few things going on in this offense. Cowboys have allowed the seventh most fantasy points to running backs this year. Great matchup. We love that. And I can basically just stop it there on Dallas. Like, I can start them. You can start running backs against Dallas.

[Mike Clay]

Yes.

[Daniel Dopp]

Charges have played two games since Omarion Hampton returned. We got a full screen that we built. Our producer, Tyler, put this together for me in those two Games.

[Phil Jates]

You are, Daniel, full screen this week.

[Daniel Dopp]

Yeah, we're really working on some good stuff here for the people. So these are the touches, carries, receptions, total yards, and fantasy points. So in the two games since Omari and Hampton returned, he has more touches, more carries, more receptions, slightly fewer total yards. Part of that is because Kamani Vidal had a 60 yard reception.

[Mike Clay]

I was going to say 40% of his yards are on one play. And otherwise his efficiency has not been good, especially as a runner.

[Daniel Dopp]

And Omarion Hampton has seen 22.2 fantasy points over that span. Kamani Vidal has seen 17.2 fantasy points over that span. So you're saying, all right, well, obviously Omarion Hampton's numbers look a lot better. Here's the thing. He played 33% of the snaps over those two games. Kamani Vidal played 66% of the snap. So you're telling me that he's not even barely playing a third of the offense in the two games that he's been back and he's clearly been far and away the better running back. I think that there is at least a question to say. Is this too much of a running back by committee? Even though we don't love Kamani Vidal stealing carries, is this a thing that Jim Harbaugh, because he is not a prognosticator or CEO of the future.

[Phil Jates]

Right.

[Daniel Dopp]

Do we think that we need to worry this week with. Even though we see how much better Omari and Hampton is, that this is going to continue and we're going to have a slightly lessened version of Hampton against this awesome matchup?

[Phil Jates]

I think Hampton's an upside play this week. If you're a big favorite, if you're a big underdog and you have Omarion Hampton as an option and your other option is a little more steady Eddie, then I think that's the way in which Omarion Hampton creeps into your lineup. But if you've been trotting somebody else out in place of Omarion Hampton, even when Hampton has been back for the past couple of weeks and you feel comfortable with your positioning, your strong favorite, you've got a strong team outside of that running back spot. I would give it another week.

[Daniel Dopp]

I go ahead spot, though.

[Phil Jates]

There's no doubt about it.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah, yeah, you're definitely more optimistic. But I, I think my issue here is once you get into that range where you like 17, we're talking Trayvon Henderson, Derek Henry, Aaron Jones. We're high in this week. Travis etn. I know it's Denver, but he's been so good Breeze Hall, Woody Marks, the Steelers running backs, RJ Harvey, DeAndre Swift. I mean, yeah, some of these guys are clear lead backs. Yeah.

[Phil Jates]

Yeah.

[Mike Clay]

Hampton is not right now. And this is two weeks in a row that he's been on the short end, at least in terms of snaps.

[Daniel Dopp]

Right.

[Mike Clay]

And I don't think Vidal's going.

[Phil Jates]

Vidal.

[Daniel Dopp]

Videl.

[Phil Jates]

Videl.

[Mike Clay]

There it is.

[Daniel Dopp]

I think I said it wrong earlier, too. My bad.

[Mike Clay]

Maybe it's 60, 40 Hampton this week, but that has not been the case the last two weeks. So when you're comparing him to those guys, that's why I have him lower than those guys. There's backs and it is a good matchup, though. I would agree, though. I think if you're making a list of running backs who could have 15 touches and two touchdowns this week, he's. He's on that. He's on that.

[Phil Jates]

Nice start of the week option.

[Daniel Dopp]

Yeah.

[Phil Jates]

Yeah.

[Daniel Dopp]

I definitely have a couple guys behind him. You mentioned some of those guys. Guys that I have ranked behind Omari and Hampton, Aaron Jones, Ashton Genty, Woody Marks, Breeze Hall, RJ Harvey and Kyren Williams. All those guys I would bench for Hampton. I've got Hampton at 17, Kymani Vidal at running back, 35. There's a part of me that just wants to buy and believe in this production. It's like, if you're a head coach of a football team, how do you look at these two running backs and you see the things that they've done on the field for your team and be like, we're going to continue to trot out this guy. I realize that the Patriots have done that literally all year with Ramandre Stevenson, so I'm banging my head against a wall when I ask that question, but it just blows my mind. So I still believe that Omarion Hampton, like you guys said, great Smash spot. Maybe I'm a little higher than you guys, but still feel like with the matchup, he's someone that we could trust, at least as a flex, if not an RB2 this week.

[Phil Jates]

I'll be quick. On topic two.

[Daniel Dopp]

Omarion Hampton.

[Mike Clay]

No, the other guy.

[Daniel Dopp]

Kymani Vidal.

[Mike Clay]

Videl.

[Daniel Dopp]

That's right.

[Mike Clay]

The A's.

[Daniel Dopp]

Exactly.

[Phil Jates]

A before E, except after C. Computer Dell. Yes, Here we go. I'm going to go with this will be quick because this seemed like it would be a more likely topic on Sunday afternoon. It's not as relevant now because I think he will play, but given the injury to Christian Watson, if he sits. Is there any packers pass catcher that you can start and what on paper is still a good matchup. And I would say this. So Watson, limited participant practice on Wednesday. I think think he's going to give it a go, but if he doesn't. If he doesn't. Is Jaden Reed a good enough player in terms of talent?

[Mike Clay]

Yeah.

[Phil Jates]

Who has done enough in his two games back, which in his two games back, four catches plus two rushing attempts and then five catches on five targets last week that you would trot him into your lineup.

[Daniel Dopp]

Standard 10 to 12 team league. Probably not.

[Mike Clay]

Yep.

[Daniel Dopp]

Yeah.

[Mike Clay]

I mean, we have him. I have him 36. We're all on the same actually field year. Higher than us. Jub Watson out.

[Phil Jates]

I have Watson in, but you have Watson in.

[Mike Clay]

Okay. So, I mean, I think we agree that even with Watson, he's a flex option. So. Yeah, I mean, I'll. I would boost this projection a little bit if Watson's out, but it's not going to be a lot. And the reason is because it's the nature of the beast with this offense. They're just going to spread. We'll see more Dante and Wicks if he plays. We'll see. Yeah. Matthew Golden's barely playing. They're going to work him in more. You'll see. Romeo Dobbs, target chair, has suffered a lot lately. That'll go up.

[Daniel Dopp]

Yeah.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah. And it is a good matchup, by the way. Jalen Johnson just still limited. They're just still not using him that much. He's got to change at some point. Yeah, he's progressing, but it's still a decent spot here.

[Daniel Dopp]

It's been frustrating because it feels like Jordan Love, as a child just watched Oprah on reruns where it's like, you get a car, you get a car, you get a car. And that's what he does when he's passing the football. It's just like he goes a little bit.

[Mike Clay]

Schematic thing. I think it's a schematic thing that, like, they just rotate guys and I.

[Daniel Dopp]

Didn'T actually think it was because he watched Oprah. I want to make sure that you knew that.

[Mike Clay]

Oh, you didn't.

[Daniel Dopp]

Yeah, I didn't know.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Phil Jates]

Well, I know.

[Mike Clay]

I think floor maybe did. My point is maybe. Okay, there you go. There you go.

[Phil Jates]

Neither of you guys watch Oprah as.

[Daniel Dopp]

A kid a couple times. Of course you do.

[Mike Clay]

Great show.

[Phil Jates]

Yeah, great show.

[Daniel Dopp]

Absolutely.

[Mike Clay]

I was actually shocked when they waved. Malik Keith. Yeah. Couldn't believe that that guy was. They were legendary.

[Phil Jates]

Score a touchdown against.

[Mike Clay]

But they love to just ran. Exactly. They just love to randomly give him touchdowns.

[Phil Jates]

Claimed him again. The Falcons or something?

[Mike Clay]

I. Yeah, I think so.

[Daniel Dopp]

Falcons could use some wide receivers.

[Mike Clay]

Sure could. They have a bazillion on their roster right now.

[Phil Jates]

All right, Mike, what's next for you?

[Mike Clay]

Next for me is similar to what we just did with the Chiefs. We're going to do it with the Colts. Philip river is back. We only have seen one instance of this. River steps in last week. 18 of 27, 120 yards, a touchdown, a pick, negative five rushing yards. They were in Seattle elite defense. We kind of saw low numbers coming. Taylor, 101 yards on 28 touches. That just the fact that they were able to get some first downs early in that game and Seattle's offense couldn't score kept that game closer than we thought. So that allowed Taylor to generate a ton of yardage. Michael Pittman didn't do much. 28 yards on five targets, 26 against, excuse me, Tyler Warren, 19 yards and six targets. Josh down scored, but at 13 yards in the game, so there really wasn't that much there from the skill guys. They're playing the Niners this week. The Niners have had the 8th highest EPA against the past, so they've struggled or against the 8th highest defensive EPA. So overall they struggled.

[Daniel Dopp]

Got it.

[Mike Clay]

They're actually in the upper half against all four fantasy positions in terms of fantasy points allowed. So a better situation. Yes, there's a better situation here for the Colts offense. I'm not super optimistic, though. I mean, going from Jones to an offense that's not going to score as much. And even when Jones was playing, these guys were. They've really fallen off. I mean, check this out here. Jonathan Taylor, RB, 18 or worse in four straight and five of his last six. I know, I heard it. Michael Pittman under 14 fantasy points at four of his last five. Tyler Warren under 11 and a half fantasy points at four straight and six of his last seven.

[Daniel Dopp]

Wow.

[Mike Clay]

So this is going back now a month and a half. We did see this coming to an extent. We talked a month or so ago about the schedule. It was going to get really tough. This is a better matchup, but not a walk in the park against the 49ers. So we're still starting Taylor. The other guys are closer. Pittman's a borderline line on block just because he's so good. And the matchup slighter here. Tyler Warren is in the conversation just because tight ends a mess after like 5 or 6. It's just like wide open for the next 20. It could be anyone. So a lot of borderline guys, but only one lineup block in the Colts offense.

[Phil Jates]

Right. And. And I don't think you made that clear enough. Jonathan Taylor is rushing for 150 yards and a touchdown on Monday night.

[Daniel Dopp]

We heard that y yesterday, obviously.

[Mike Clay]

Yes. Yeah. The oracle.

[Daniel Dopp]

Can I ask you, you said that Philip Rivers had minus five rushing yards. How does that work? Because if he gets sacked behind the line of scrimmage without crossing the line of scrimmage, it's not negative rushing yards, is it? Don't you only get negative rushing yards if you kneel down?

[Phil Jates]

I think what it was was pro. Like, was it like one of those bad snaps?

[Mike Clay]

Oh, that could have.

[Daniel Dopp]

That could be.

[Phil Jates]

We saw that yesterday. Yeah, I think we saw this. I think it was actually changed yesterday.

[Mike Clay]

Oh, it was a scoring. Correct.

[Phil Jates]

Did you guys see this yesterday? So the NFL issues its stats corrections on Wednesday. And I was saying, wasn't I saying this on this show? Like, we haven't had any this year. That move the needle.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah.

[Phil Jates]

And these don't really move the needle, but I think what they had done previously was bad snaps had been ruled 5 yard, negative 5 yard rushes because the quarterback had to, like, go corral the football, not a sack.

[Mike Clay]

Gotcha.

[Phil Jates]

And I think they changed these yesterday. And now Philip Rivers had five rushing yards put back onto his ledger. So went from negative five to zero.

[Mike Clay]

Okay.

[Phil Jates]

But the one that I saw on Instagram from ESPN NFL was that apparently Caleb Williams was credited with five extra rushing yards in week six.

[Mike Clay]

What?

[Phil Jates]

So I don't know. I saw. It's pretty wild. I'm not. I'm not messing around.

[Mike Clay]

Yesterday they did.

[Phil Jates]

Yes.

[Daniel Dopp]

Can you do that? Really?

[Phil Jates]

Yesterday, Someone, like, they can announce it whenever they want to announce it. Let me just go through.

[Daniel Dopp]

Yeah. What if that changed things?

[Phil Jates]

Bear with me. WI Fi is not great right here. However, Caleb Williams. Yeah, this is wild. Let's see Jam Garon on X. Caleb Williams is now officially credited with a fumble, a fumble recovery and a rush for 0 yards, not minus 5 on the last play of the third quarter in Week 6. That tweet originally is from Tom Pelissero of NFL Network. It looks like Jam Garon on Twitter notes that his Caleb game was swung because he went from losing to now winning. And maybe he's out of the playoffs. I don't know. I'm looking at the play right now. This is bizarre. I'm doing a terrible job describing this, but.

[Mike Clay]

No, you're doing a great job.

[Phil Jates]

It was a bad snap against the Commanders that Caleb had to corral kind of went through his hands and it was initially ruled as Caleb rushed for negative 5 yards. It's now been characterized as Caleb recovering a fumble and running for zero yards on that.

[Mike Clay]

So weird that they can do that. This. Yeah.

[Daniel Dopp]

Does that mean that that doesn't if it's a bad snap by the center to the quarterback that it doesn't count as a sack for the defense? Like, does Miles Garrett not get a sack?

[Phil Jates]

Not that smart of a guy. So I don't really know the to that to be entirely candid with you.

[Mike Clay]

All right.

[Phil Jates]

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[Mike Clay]

I did have a question from someone yesterday who was like, hey, there was a scoring correction. I won my matchup. But then there was a scoring correction and it swung my matchup. Should I just change it back or leave it? Like what do I do? Like, no, you accept the scoring change. Right? That's the whole point.

[Daniel Dopp]

That's the point of the change.

[Mike Clay]

I Remember many within the last decade, but one year, one of my longest running leagues, I won the championship by like a half a point. Scoring corrections came in and I lost.

[Phil Jates]

Yeah.

[Mike Clay]

And that happens. You just.

[Phil Jates]

I have a great story about that. We have. We don't have enough time today, but I've got a great story I think I've told on the show before, but nothing like telling another a story for the second, third, eighth time and beating it right into the grand listen.

[Mike Clay]

So it'd be the first time for me.

[Daniel Dopp]

That's fair.

[Mike Clay]

Never listen to that. Would be the first time. Every time.

[Phil Jates]

Daniel's listening.

[Daniel Dopp]

I got you, baby. I got you, baby.

[Mike Clay]

Thank you. What's your next one?

[Daniel Dopp]

Can we talk about the expectations for Tedroa McMillan with like the three game kind of slump that he's had? Here's the thing, it's sort of weird. Career low, four and a half fantasy points. Last week, last three games, 2 for 35 against the 49ers. Got bailed out by a touchdown, but 2 for 35. 1 for 43 against the Rams, again got bailed out by a touchdown, but one for 43. And then last week, two for 25. Over that three game span, Jalen Coker leads the Panthers with a 24% target share. Tommy Trimble ties Tedro McMillan with a 14.6% target share. Over that three game slump, Jalen Coker has seen more targets, more receptions, more receiving yards. Both of them have two touchdowns and Jalen Coker has more fantasy points. It's a weird scheduling quirk like some of the other ones, where they're going to play the team that they're facing twice in the last two weeks, week 16 and week 18. Obviously you're taking on Tampa. I think I'm okay benching Tedro McMillan this week, given what we've seen for the last three weeks. I know the touchdowns made the fantasy points look better, but it does not feel like there was a connection here between Tedro McMillan and Bryce Young that I feel comfortable in a win or go home matchup. I've got him as my wide receiver 30 this week. Am I crazy or do you think that's acceptable? At least in the realm of acceptable.

[Phil Jates]

I've got him at 31.

[Mike Clay]

Mike, you're a little more optimistic here against the Bucks. I think it's a decent spot. They've been kind of neutral against receivers this season. But I'm not really concerned about the matchup here and I. I'm leaning back a little bit toward a recovery in the Volume area because his target shares have been massive this season. Now, I know it's dipped a little bit the last couple of weeks, but oftentimes with guys at his level of his pedigree, we'll see a rebound in that department. So that's why I'm a little bit more optimistic. But yeah, I'm definitely nervous. I have him in the FF now league. Fortunately, I'm very strong at receiver, so I'm not going to use him this week. But, you know, normally he'd be in that conversation. I started him last week against Liz and got lucky to get by with. With him putting up two and a half points.

[Daniel Dopp]

He's not an auto bench necessarily for me. Like again, we had a this question, I think last week when we were talking about a Mecca Abuka where it's like, you know what? I don't really love the situation, but is it him or is it, you know, picks Devon Vale? Like I'm still going to start Tedro McMillan in that situation, but I'm at a spot now where I feel comfortable benching him. Unfortunately in week 16, if I have a better option on my roster, by.

[Mike Clay]

The way, out this week as well.

[Phil Jates]

Yeah, the Saints have don't use him era.

[Daniel Dopp]

Thank you.

[Phil Jates]

Devin Neal's out.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah.

[Phil Jates]

Kendra Miller's out for the season. Of course it's going to be like Audrey Estimate and Evan Hull and it's going to be Mason Tipton and Chris Olave catching passes.

[Mike Clay]

By the way, do you see who's back on an active roster? Who's Marshawn Lloyd back on the act? He was back off IR yesterday.

[Phil Jates]

Not to drop everyone, pick him up.

[Mike Clay]

Rob Jacobs. No, don't do that.

[Phil Jates]

Marshawn Lloyd is going to go back to injured reserve today actually, for. For the Packers. He is? Yes. It's a procedural move.

[Mike Clay]

Oh, that's too bad. Okay.

[Phil Jates]

I don't know.

[Mike Clay]

I just saw last night the transaction. He was activated.

[Phil Jates]

So basically what happens is when you have your practice window open, do you have 21 days?

[Mike Clay]

Yes.

[Phil Jates]

And if you're not activated to the roster, you have to go on IR for the rest of the year.

[Daniel Dopp]

Season ending.

[Phil Jates]

Yeah, he got hurt again. So the packers don't want to bring him back to the roster and then carry him as their 53rd player. They're going to bring him back on and then put him back on injured reserve, which restarts the clock to allow him to potentially get back either in the playoffs or at the end of the regular. Why did.

[Mike Clay]

Why don't all teams just do that then with those guys, we can only.

[Phil Jates]

Put a player on a certain number of times. You only have a certain number of designations per se.

[Mike Clay]

I'm just surprised.

[Phil Jates]

So you have like eight total. Right. So if you just keep. You bring a guy on and keep bringing back. Also, like when you open the practice window, the intent is for him to get rid of the play.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah. Right. Well, anyway, yeah, that's the most Arshon Lloyd thing.

[Phil Jates]

I just.

[Mike Clay]

It's unfortunate. Yeah. He's super talented. Maybe someday, maybe I'll have like a J.K. dobbins turnaround. Would love to see talented player. Yeah. All right.

[Phil Jates]

So it's not quite like unstoppable force versus a movable object, but strength on strength here on Sunday in Cleveland between Harold Fannin and the Bills defense, specifically against tight ends. I would say if you look at the recent metrics for Harold Fannin, you're thinking to yourself, like, how many guys are you starting ahead of him at tight end?

[Mike Clay]

Yeah. See his target share last year?

[Phil Jates]

McBride. Yeah. Was it 14?

[Mike Clay]

47% target share last year?

[Phil Jates]

11 the week prior. So the good news is, so the last two weeks, 18.7 fantasy points per game. That's tight end four, 25 targets. That's the most of any tight end. He has a 36.2% target share. That's best amongst all tight ends. And he has 162 receiving yards, which is third most amongst tight ends. You have to start him.

[Mike Clay]

Yes.

[Phil Jates]

I don't think there's any way you can start him. And I think he should be considered a top five consideration this week. The only thing that I will mention is that, hey, if he comes out of the game on Sunday with eight and a half, there might have been a little bit of foreshadowing because of how the Bills have played all year. The Bills have been the best team against opposing tight ends this season. They have allowed a total of 7.5 fantasy points per game. And over the last six weeks, the Bills have held five top tight ends to six and a half fantasy points or fewer. The only exception over the last six games is Mike Isic. You had a big game, 20 plus fantasy points.

[Mike Clay]

Is that the no.

[Daniel Dopp]

T game?

[Phil Jates]

I think T was in that game. It was just the four touchdown, four passes.

[Daniel Dopp]

Oh, that's right. That's right. That's right.

[Phil Jates]

Joe Burrow, that game. You know, I think Fanon's safe though, because so much of what he is doing is just stuff like there's a lot of at or near the line of scrimmage. Stuff that like, defenses will concede that.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah, right.

[Phil Jates]

They're worried about guys beating them deep or guys beating them deep and over the middle. I think he's fine. I just wanted to put it on alert, like A, alert how great he has been and B, alert just that this Bill's defense is awesome. So if he goes 5 for 52 on Sunday, you might be disappointed, but it's probably in line with where the Bill's defense has been this season.

[Daniel Dopp]

I don't think that he's going to get enough recognition for how good he's been. When we look at potentially like offensive rookie of the year in fantasy, Offensive player of the year in fantasy, like Harold Fannin has been unbelievably good at a spot that has been tough for managers to fill all season long.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah. If he was playing this role and a better offense, oh, my gosh, he'd be right up there.

[Phil Jates]

Really fun players.

[Mike Clay]

Really fun.

[Daniel Dopp]

Seriously excited to see what he can be next year. Hopefully with the Browns being a little bit better. Mike, give us your next one.

[Mike Clay]

Last one for me, guys, is remember early in the year we played a little game where we ranked The Chargers receivers 1, 2, 3. We're gonna do that right now. But with the Buccaneers wide receiver. Hey, Mike Evans back last week, first game since Week 4. He only played 51% of the snaps, but at a team high 12 targets at six catches, 132 yards. What I found kind of fascinating about that is if you look at weeks one through three, when he was fully healthy in this offense, he failed to clear 56 yards or 13.3 fantasy points in any of them. Now they're playing the Panthers. And this is interesting because I was like, you know, first of all, they've been okay against receivers, only 10 touchdowns odd this year. But I was like, Evans, I think he has like a pretty good resume against the Panthers. Get ready for this one. He has 18 plus fantasy points in nine of his last 10 games against the Panthers. An average of 24.8. An average of 24.8 against. You only have one dud in there. He has owned this team in recent years. So, I mean, I. That made me feel a little bit more optimistic about him, actually. I have him in that FF now. League.

[Daniel Dopp]

Hey, nice.

[Mike Clay]

That could put him under flex consideration. What makes me nervous. And I see your. You are way higher than me on Evans as I'm seeing here. What makes me nervous though, again is like he. We've seen him for three full games. Yeah. Yeah. And he wasn't this good. You saw Chris Godwin. We'll get to him in a second. And Mecca Buka, but I don't know if I'm just worried he's going to be back down to like an 18 to 20% target share. If he doesn't find the end zone, does he go, you know, how does that happen? 40 and like how do you.

[Daniel Dopp]

How do you bring him back? Sorry, I didn't mean to interrupt you but like how do you bring him back after being out for multiple weeks? And then I know you only play 50 some percent of the snaps but you give him how many targets? I mean.

[Mike Clay]

Well, I'll.

[Daniel Dopp]

Yeah, you like. So you're basically saying in the second game where we expect him to be even more ramped up and healthier, we will now throttle him down even more.

[Mike Clay]

That's the part why I have him throttling him down. He might play more snaps. It just do that many go to him. Does that sort of target share go his way?

[Daniel Dopp]

Great question.

[Mike Clay]

Also feeding these other receivers, I mean Chris Godwin played 95% of the snaps last week and scored his first touchdown of the year that he had 14 points. That's a season high. So where does he fall and does he continue to ramp up? Remember he was a top five fantasy receiver. Yeah. When he was healthy last year. And then of course Emeka Abuco, who we thought would disappear and his route participation last week was a season low but still 60% and he actually had kind of a rebound game. He had 4 for 64 in that one. So this is a tricky situation because if they're now all healthy and we know Baker's good, but that offense hasn't been as good this year. But now everybody's healthy. Bucky Irving's back. You know, everybody's there. Do they kind of make that leap forward now and finish strong this season? So it's a tricky one to sort out like what, what is. Who is the real Bucks offense is kind of what I'm trying to figure out emotionally.

[Daniel Dopp]

I don't feel like after what I just saw happen with Mike Evans last week, if I have him on my squad, there's no way I can leave him on my bench and potentially watch him do that again.

[Phil Jates]

Got a bench.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah.

[Daniel Dopp]

It would be so tough. So for me it's Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, I got both of them as top 30 options. Chris Godwin's right on the cusp. And then a Mecca Buka is the third one right now in this team. That's how I'm looking at it, you guys. I'm assuming you see it the same.

[Phil Jates]

Evans 1, Godwin 2, Abuka 3.

[Daniel Dopp]

But Evans is clearly higher than the.

[Mike Clay]

Other two, especially with his domination of this team. I mean, that's a long. That's five years of him crushing this team. And I would agree Godwin and Nabuka are close, but I'm giving Godwin the edge.

[Phil Jates]

So let me ask Mike something, because I think Daniel just basically explained which side of the fence he is on this point of the season. I'm not saying the process gets thrown out, but like, you know, hey, just because you had the right process, if you don't get the result, you're going to be pissed on Sunday, right?

[Mike Clay]

Yeah. So.

[Phil Jates]

Or whatever day your championship is wrapped up, Sunday or Monday, Is there a part of you, I guess you're semis. Is there a part of you that's like, what would I feel least bad about going down swinging with. Is there a party that's like, listen, if I bench Mike, if I start Mike Evans After 12 targets last week and absolutely owning the Panthers for his last 10 games, like, and he goes off for 7.5 fantasy points, that would probably hurt me less than if I play a Mecca Abuka and he gets 7.2 after the string of games he's on, does that calculate? Does that factor into your calculation?

[Mike Clay]

I'm going to give you my hypothetical situation here, right. I'm going to give you an actual real life example. And this is the FF now playoffs, right? So I have Nakua locked in. I know we'll get to that game shortly. But George Pickens, I mean, he's a top five scoring receiver. But a tough matchup against the Chargers. I've been in my lineup. DK Metcalf gets Detroit second most fantasy points to receiver. So again, well, let's lock into Kuwen, fill two spots. You have Pickens, you have Metcalf.

[Phil Jates]

Okay.

[Mike Clay]

They have Mike Evans.

[Daniel Dopp]

Okay.

[Mike Clay]

We just talked about him. Also have Vlad McConkey in a great matchup against Dallas and yeah, bad McDonkey, that's what he's been the last two weeks. And then Tedro McMillan, who I'm probably crossing him off based on what we talked about. So, you know, that's a lot of. I have to pick two of the two of those guys after Nakua. So that's. Yeah, I mean, I know how I have him ranked and projected, but I'm sitting there like just trying to figure out, do I go with one of the guys with the better matchups and move them ahead of Do I dare bench Pickens? You know what I mean? Do I dare bench Metcalf after what he's done the last couple of weeks? So it is. I'm with you. It is. It is tough.

[Daniel Dopp]

This is what's so difficult about these weeks. Right? You have everybody at your disposal. We have as much information as we've ever had. And it also feels like more impossible to make the decision than it ever.

[Mike Clay]

Has, which is so tough.

[Phil Jates]

All right, speaking of last one here.

[Daniel Dopp]

How do you guys feel about Travis Etn? Because he's been awesome the last two weeks, but the matchup this week is really not great.

[Phil Jates]

And I think that he's reached a.

[Mike Clay]

Point, though, where it's like, you have to.

[Phil Jates]

You have to. Yeah. All right. Week 16 vibes are in play.

[Daniel Dopp]

I agree with you.

[Mike Clay]

I agree with you. And the guy we've been worried about is not a factor anymore.

[Daniel Dopp]

Yes.

[Mike Clay]

Special to really benefit that one game.

[Daniel Dopp]

Well, I still researched it, so let me give you some numbers. Anyway, I'm just going to sit back.

[Phil Jates]

And relax and enjoy the number at.

[Daniel Dopp]

Least 15 and a half fantasy points in five of his. Sorry. In six of his last seven games.

[Mike Clay]

Excellent.

[Daniel Dopp]

Which is ironic. His worst game came against the Titans, where He only scored 5.1 fantasy points. Weeks one through nine, he had a total of three touchdowns. Weeks 10 through 15, he has a total of nine touchdowns. He has been on a touchdown tear right now, averaging 18.6 fantasy points per game. He is RB6 over that span. He has finished as a top 16 running back in six of the last seven weeks. But the Broncos are allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to the running back position. Denver has allowed one game over 75 rushing yards. They have allowed two players to top 95 total yards. That was in week two, Jonathan Taylor and week three, Omari and Hampton. Since then, we have not had a single player over a hundred total yards from scrimmage. And the positive, I guess, because you said this, I agree with you. There's no way I'm benching Travis Etienne, but I'm lowering my expectations based on some of the games that I've seen recently. We're hoping that he puts up a Josh Jacobs type game where last week Josh Jacobs had 23.2 fantasy points and he found the end zone twice. That's where Travis ETN has been making his hay. He actually, he's been fine in the receiving game category, but he hasn't been like a huge pass catcher. Hasn't been overwhelming. So he's going to have to find the end zone. I have lowered him a little bit. Still a lineup lock for me, but with lowered expectations. He is RB15 and he probably would easily be a top 10 guy if it wasn't for going up against this Broncos defense.

[Phil Jates]

Well said. I have nothing to add, your honor.

[Daniel Dopp]

Awesome.

[Phil Jates]

Yeah.

[Daniel Dopp]

Okay. Well, then that is going to close out at least our first part of the Week 16 preview. We're going to dive now into the wide receiver cornerback matchups, part of Mike Clay's playbook every single week. That comes out on ESPN.com.

[Mike Clay]

Huh?

[Phil Jates]

Busy one for you?

[Mike Clay]

It is. Yeah. We have a bunch of names on here. Four upgrades, five downgrades.

[Daniel Dopp]

A lot. I love it when you have this many upgrades. Sometimes you only have like one or two upgrades and a bunch of downgrades. I like the positivity.

[Mike Clay]

That was last week. That was a little recency bias on your end. It was just an odd week.

[Daniel Dopp]

Yeah, because everything is recency bias because I might have gone home last week. That's how it works. You know what I mean?

[Mike Clay]

We're going to find a way to advance those left out there.

[Daniel Dopp]

Thank you.

[Mike Clay]

Let's do it. All right, let's start with some upgrades. Chargers receivers against Cowboys. Just tip this one off a little bit, lad. McConkey under four and a half fantasy points and two straight and three of his last four. Keenan Allen single digit fantasy points in seven consecutive games. So it's been gross. But to get the Cowboys, who've had the most fantasy points allowed to receivers this season, the most touchdowns, top five in yards, yards per target, catch rate, it has been a struggle. So I feel like McConkey is startable this week.

[Daniel Dopp]

I'm still.

[Mike Clay]

I don't think I could trust Keenan Allen, although Quentin Johnson probably going to miss this one as well. Which adds.

[Phil Jates]

Should I return to practice Yesterday I.

[Mike Clay]

Thought he was out again. I thought he returned. I removed him. Oh, look, projections. I thought he was out again yesterday.

[Phil Jates]

Take a look.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah. All right. Well, you guys confirm that. As usual, I'm not prepared for.

[Daniel Dopp]

That's not true. No, it's not true.

[Mike Clay]

Keep going, you guys.

[Daniel Dopp]

All right, I got the Week 16 practice report.

[Mike Clay]

You go. I'm.

[Daniel Dopp]

I'm slowly pulling it up. Field was not wrong. Internet is a little bit tough sometimes in here, but I got it right here at my doorstep.

[Mike Clay]

So he did go. It's important.

[Daniel Dopp]

I understand. I understand. I'm trying really hard. It's a tough. Oh, my God. I'm getting pop ups.

[Mike Clay]

Okay, don't worry about it. So we're gonna. Yeah. Either way, I'm probably not gonna trust Keenan Allen this week, lad. McConkey, though, is a guy that I view as at least in the Wide Receiver 3 conversation with a good matchup bounce back opportunity. Let's stay in the division. The Chiefs limited for QJ Limited. Okay. All right. So May. All right. All right.

[Phil Jates]

Fair enough.

[Mike Clay]

Yes. All right. I was wrong. I'm sorry. Should I just leave?

[Phil Jates]

No, Please.

[Daniel Dopp]

I think you should leave.

[Mike Clay]

Over. All right. So I'll get him back in there. Well done, Chiefs receivers. We talked about this. Rashee Rice is questionable for this, but if you go. Rashi Rice is questionable for this one with a concussion. But Chiefs receivers in a good spot here against the Titans. 5th Most fantasy points allowed to receivers. The efficiency has been terrible. They just stink against this position. So Rice is a lineup block. Worthy is a lineup block. If Rice is out of Rice plays tougher without Patrick Mahomes in there. Arizona guys, let's talk about these Cardinals wide receivers. Okay. Marvin Harrison Jr. And Michael Wilson. We know that Wilson splits have been unbelievable with or without Marvin Harrison. To put a number on that, 16 plus fantasy points in all four with an average of 27.2. But without or with Harrison in the lineup, he has not cleared 9.1 fantasy points in any of those 10 games. But they have a great matchup. So I think this actually is a spot where both could be in lineups. Even if Harrison returns this week. The Falcons have allowed that most fantasy points or receivers over the last eight weeks. Wow. The fourth most touchdowns. And they've allowed a receiver to hit 24 fantasy points in three of their last five games. So Harrison, if he plays, you're. You're starting him. Well, Wilson's situation is if Harrison is out, lineup block, top 10 option. If Harrison plays, I still think he's in the wide receiver two conversation and worse, the wide receiver three.

[Daniel Dopp]

It's such a weird situation to be like when Marvin Harrison's on the field, he's clearly the wide receiver one of this offense. But when Marvin Harrison's not on the field, Michael Wilson is clearly a better wide receiver than Marvin Harrison Jr. Yeah, it's like a weird juxtaposition of how the Cardinals choose to maybe Mike Willie.

[Phil Jates]

Like, just leapfrogs him this week maybe.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah, I tried.

[Daniel Dopp]

I walked this line earlier this season when you had those two big games from Michael Wilson. And then Marvin Harrison Jr. Came back and it's like, this is a good matchup. You gotta be able to play in both. How are they gonna not throw the football to Michael Wilson? Yeah, I'm hoping this week you are right, Mike. Because we want them both if we can.

[Mike Clay]

This kind of worked out for us though, because last week they had the tough matchup and Harrison was out. So it made it easier to put Wilson in our lineups and he came through this week. You have a lighter matchup, Harrison returns. It makes it easier to start both guys. So that's the good news.

[Daniel Dopp]

Totally.

[Mike Clay]

Last one on the upgrades. DK Metcalf against your Detroit Lions. Daniel's covering his ears, as he should. The Lions, the second most fantasy points, A lot of receivers, third most to the perimeter, which is where Metcalf lines up over 80% of the time. Your Lions have had the most yards, the second most touchdowns to receivers, and a receiver has reached 26.95 fantasy points against Detroit in four consecutive games. And if you're wondering who they faced, are these, like, superstars? Some are Wanda Robinson, Don TVIAN Wicks, Ryan Flournoy and Puka Nakua. So one is.

[Phil Jates]

Okay, I was going to say name the sum.

[Mike Clay]

One is. I thought there was two better. Well, Wandell Robinson, he's been awesome this year. But anyway, Those guys, that's four straight games. They've hit 26 and a half. So I think DK Metcalf has a shot to get there this week. That would be great.

[Daniel Dopp]

I don't love that.

[Mike Clay]

Did they sign Alzheimer? They have not.

[Daniel Dopp]

They have not yet.

[Phil Jates]

Still time for that.

[Mike Clay]

MVS Lazard. Who else did they bring in back?

[Phil Jates]

The boys.

[Daniel Dopp]

My secondary still in trouble, by the way. It's going to be.

[Phil Jates]

I.

[Daniel Dopp]

This is a great matchup for DK Metcalf.

[Mike Clay]

It is making my decision.

[Phil Jates]

It really comes down to how willing the Steelers are to throw the football to him. Like they need, like. But the Steelers, I think what they need for a big DK day is for this to be a bit of a track meet. Yeah. Like when they played the game slow on Monday night where there was three points scored in the first 14 minutes. And I'm sorry, 29 minutes and 43 seconds of the game. And then the Steelers scored with 17 seconds left in the first half. They didn't need a lot of DK. It was the Kenny Gamewell show. They're going to need more of DK on Sunday if they want to win this game.

[Daniel Dopp]

Totally.

[Mike Clay]

I have a question for a friend. Metcalf or Pickens? Who you started.

[Phil Jates]

Wow, that's in the FF now.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah, I'm still Debating nonstop. I'm going to take this one down to like don't ever think 104.

[Phil Jates]

Don't ever think.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah, we'll see. Pickens hasn't been good the last I think I match up. Yeah, my initial lean is higher but it's close.

[Daniel Dopp]

I so I think I have Pickens ranked higher but like I emotionally feel better about the conversation about DK Metcalf. That's a tough one. All right.

[Mike Clay]

All right.

[Daniel Dopp]

Well those are upgrades. Give us some downgrades.

[Mike Clay]

Mike's downgrades this one. This guy has gone from a borderline top 10 or 12 play we were talking about a week ago, maybe even earlier this week to a guy that's considering benching. Seriously, Waddle. First of all, quarterback change.

[Phil Jates]

Yep.

[Mike Clay]

Matchup aside, no. 2 any Marquin Ewers takes over. Obviously the tons of uncertainty here for Waddle, but He also draws D.J. turner one of the best breakout corners in the NFL this season. He is shadowed 11 times this year. Those receivers averaging 8.0 fantasy points per game. Not just against him but in the entire game. Only two have even hit 13. So do you think Waddle in when you were NFL debut he's going to be the third guy to get to 13. It's going to be very hard. The Bengals by the way have allowed the fifth fewest fantasy points to receivers because they just get picked on at running back and tight end. So this is a very tough spot for Waddle and if I have him, I'd consider benching.

[Phil Jates]

It's actually for me a little bit less about the Quinn yours of it all, a little bit more of the DJ Turner of it all.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah, no doubt. Yeah, no doubt about we did just see Zay Flowers, but he scored a touchdown last week but otherwise not a huge game. He had a couple like big chunk plays in that game but otherwise didn't do much. Which I know if you started him you were fine with the output he got. But Turner overall this year has been dominant. So tough spot.

[Phil Jates]

What else we got?

[Mike Clay]

Next up, Brian Thomas Jr. I think he's in jeopardy of seeing Pat certain shadow coverage in this game and I know your instinct might be nah, Jacoby Myers is their top guy. Why not him? It's just the way these guys are deployed. I mean Myers has been on the perimeter more in Jacksonville than he was in Las Vegas, which could put him he'll probably see a little bit of certain but the style of play with Thomas where he's more of a downfield threat, a perimeter that I think they Put certain on him in this game and view him as the highest threat. And look, Denver has a lot five touchdowns receivers this season that's fewest they've been dominant and certain is shadowed seven times and is holding those guys under 10 fantasy points per game. So this is a tough spot. And by the way, one more nugget here. Only three receivers have even reached 16 points against the Broncos this whole season. So again, if you think Myers is probably that guy that has a shot to get close to that two guys aren't getting there most likely.

[Daniel Dopp]

It doesn't seem like it.

[Mike Clay]

I. I know Jacksonville's playing at a high level, but I'm very nervous for Thomas this week. I would not put him in my lineup. Fair. All right, next downgrade. This one could be quick. Jerry Judy. Probably going to draw Christian Benford. The last four guys Benford has shadowed have been held to single digit fantasy points and that includes A. Booka, Nico Collins, DK Metcalf and Jamar Chase. All four. Judy should be red hot, right?

[Daniel Dopp]

80 this week then. Yeah.

[Mike Clay]

So Judy. Yeah, Exactly. I'm at 63, so that one's. We're not starting him anyway. Just wanted to. Quick. In case you were considering I'm in a deep league for your flex spot for Judy. Cowboys receivers C.D. lamb and George Pickens draw the Chargers second fewest fantasy points allowed to receivers. Fewest to the perimeter, fifth fewest to the slot. Only six touchdowns allowed to the position this year. Since week nine, one receiver has reached 12 and a half fantasy points against the Chargers. That was Rashi Rice, A.J. brown. A.J. brown. That's it. So tough spot again. That's why I'm struggling with Pickens. Two, three duds. And this brutal matchup against the Chargers with CD playing so well, it's going to be a tough spot for Pickens.

[Daniel Dopp]

Can we ask, Can I just interrupt really quickly and can we go to chat? I'd love to ask. Chat. If you were Mike Clay, would you play DK Metcalf or George Pickens this week? I'd love to know at the end of the show just to see what Chat would say in this one.

[Mike Clay]

And I'm working, I'm trying to figure out Mike Evans too.

[Daniel Dopp]

Yeah, let's crowdsource a little bit.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah, let's get to those two.

[Daniel Dopp]

Yeah.

[Mike Clay]

Is it going to be 64%?

[Daniel Dopp]

Don't. 64%.

[Mike Clay]

No lightning. Roger. Right.

[Phil Jates]

But good try.

[Mike Clay]

We'll try. Let's see.

[Phil Jates]

Yeah, write it down.

[Daniel Dopp]

I'm going to write it down.

[Phil Jates]

Don't tell us what the number is.

[Mike Clay]

We're saying Pickens or Metcalf. Okay, I got it. Yeah, yeah.

[Phil Jates]

Just give us the split, write it down, don't tell us, and we'll reveal what Mike guesses. Yes, I think I know which way the crowd will lean.

[Daniel Dopp]

I think I do, too.

[Phil Jates]

I think they'll lean towards dk.

[Daniel Dopp]

I think so, too.

[Mike Clay]

Okay, let's see. All right, last one, guys. Wanda Robinson draws the Vikings. They've allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Only eight touchdowns to the position. Only nine receivers have reached double digit fantasy points against them this season, which is hard to believe. This is obviously a very low number. So one day, a little bit of a downgrade, but the volume he's seeing with Jackson Dar playing at a high level, still going to fire him up. And by the way, quick note on dart. I was looking at this like some of his big games over the last month or so have come against some really good defenses, including Denver, where he had a huge game against the Broncos. So I know we talked about him a little yesterday. We had a social question on why he's ranked so high. The guy continues to just get the job done. Yep, he really does.

[Daniel Dopp]

Gosh, I'm in a spot now where I feel like I've. I got a friend of mine who's trying to decide between a really tough matchup in George Pickens or a really nice matchup in DK Metcalf. And I'm really, really trying, actually. I have to. Do I have to decide between Jalen Waddle and FF now? Jaylen Waddle, Jerry, Judy and Xavier Worthy. And I don't like any of those three options. Yes. So Judy's out, Xavier Worthy. Do I want Xavier Worthy or Jalen Waddle? And I don't like either of those options anymore.

[Mike Clay]

If Rice is out, I think that makes.

[Daniel Dopp]

Yes, that makes it a lot easier.

[Phil Jates]

That definitely helps the cause there. Yep, we'll talk about that.

[Daniel Dopp]

Well, I got Rice on a bunch of other leagues, so I don't really want him to be out either, so. But we will dive into that, see.

[Phil Jates]

If we've seen any updates.

[Daniel Dopp]

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[Phil Jates]

This message may be shocking to many millennials.

[Daniel Dopp]

If you are one, you might want.

[Phil Jates]

To sit down right now. Loads of people are searching the following on low rise jeans, halter top, velour, tracksuit, hookah shell, necklace, disc belt. You likely place these in the dark of your closet in 2004, never to be seen again. But if you can find it in yourself to dust them off, there are.

[Daniel Dopp]

A lot of people who will give you money for them.

[Phil Jates]

Sell on Depop where taste recognizes taste. So good, so good, so good. Score Holiday gifts.

[Mike Clay]

Everyone wants for way less at your Nordstrom Rack store. Save on Ugg, Nike, Rag and Bone.

[Phil Jates]

Vince Frame, Kurt Geiger, London and more.

[Mike Clay]

Cause there's always something new.

[Daniel Dopp]

I'm giving all the gifts this year.

[Phil Jates]

With that extra 5% off when I use my Nordstrom credit card. Santa who join the Nordy Club at.

[Mike Clay]

Nordstrom Rack to unlock our best deals.

[Phil Jates]

It's easy. Big gifts, big perks.

[Mike Clay]

That's why you wreck.

[Daniel Dopp]

I was going to say let's dive into While we're at it, the Thursday Night Football preview. One of the best games we are going to see on Thursday night. The entirety of the season. Rams and Seahawks. Not just for us in fantasy, but with massive playoff Massive, massive playoff implications on the line. Let's talk about these are the guys rostered in. Here's how I'm going to say this. Jackson, Smith and Jigba is on 44.3% of playoff teams. Puka Nukua on 41.9% of playoff teams. Those are the number one and number two wide receivers that are on playoff teams this year. Seahawks, the number one rostered defense. Kyron Williams, the number eight rostered running back. Matthew Stafford, the number two rostered quarterback. Plus you got Jason Meyers, who is the number two rostered kicker in the playoffs. And Devontae Adams, who is who is the 12th most rostered wide receiver as well. There are some massive dudes in this game.

[Phil Jates]

Yeah.

[Daniel Dopp]

Is it as simple as you just start everybody that got you here or are we talking about. Maybe there's a little bit of conversation to have.

[Phil Jates]

I think it's good. So let's just, let's get through the guys that it would be absolute lunatic fringe behavior to not play. You're playing jsn. You're playing Puka.

[Mike Clay]

Okay. Period.

[Phil Jates]

Full stop. Have to. Those guys are unbelievable. They could easily go for 10 and 1:23 in a touchdown.

[Mike Clay]

And yeah, I would agree that is end of list for lineup blocks.

[Daniel Dopp]

Agreed.

[Phil Jates]

Then we talk about everybody else. Seahawks running backs, casting them aside.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah.

[Phil Jates]

Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold casting him aside. Anybody not named JSN that catches passes, casting them aside.

[Mike Clay]

All right, so we're done with Seattle.

[Phil Jates]

Unless. Well, maybe weather in a second. Are you playing Jason Myers? Are you avoiding based off the weather tonight?

[Mike Clay]

Okay, so do you want to talk about that? Give me the weather. Shout out to Kevin Roth, who does a great job with. With weather. And he is written this down. It's kind of a borderline. He. He does it from like green, yellow, orange. I don't know if there's a red, but orange is like the scariest that you generally see. He has a fringe of yellow and orange. Right now it's probably going to lean orange.

[Phil Jates]

So orange is really bad.

[Mike Clay]

Orange is bad. Yeah. Yeah. So right now the concern is two parts. One is rain. There's probably gonna be some rain. It might not be as that bad, but we're kind of keeping an eye on that. The larger concern, of course, as we always talk about in fantasy, is Daniel's pulling up the weather.

[Daniel Dopp]

Yeah, I got it.

[Mike Clay]

You don't trust me?

[Phil Jates]

Okay.

[Daniel Dopp]

No, no, no. Just so that we can have it in front of us while we're talking about it.

[Mike Clay]

That's all wind, of course, and there could be heavy gusts in this one at. At or over 40 miles per hour. They could sustain around 20. So this is. That's big. I mean, if they're sustained 20 mile an hour winds, it's a big problem.

[Daniel Dopp]

That's huge.

[Mike Clay]

Fair question on. On Jason Myers and this is something you should take down to closer to game time and keep an eye on the wind forecast. If it's going to be heavy winds, that's going to be a problem.

[Phil Jates]

If there's a benefit to an island game, if you have Amazon prime, you can go watch it because they'll probably show some of this stuff pregame. Right. Like it's tough on Sundays when you've got espn. Like we're doing our best to give you everything. Like we're talking about as many games as we can, but we've got a full menu of games going. Amazon's going to be dialed in to just this game tonight.

[Mike Clay]

You'll be on the field of.

[Phil Jates]

I'm sure you'll see just a couple of. Couple of kicks on top of that. Brady Henderson covers the Seahawks for us, does a great job and Sarah Barp covers the Rams for us, is a great job as well. Go find them on Twitter. They'll probably have some updates on the weather as well throughout the day, so keep your eyes up there.

[Daniel Dopp]

I have one other player I just want to mention because I mentioned it here. The Seattle Seahawks are the most rostered defense in the NFL or in the fantasy playoffs. They are defense number one, taking on the Rams. I said earlier this week that if you needed to have a streamer, you could go out and grab the Bills taking on the Cleveland Browns. Are you starting the Seahawks this week against the Rams?

[Mike Clay]

Especially with the conditions, you're okay with it. That should keep scoring in check. But yeah, I'm. I have the. I definitely move the Rams down, but if I've been. Who do they play next week? That's another variable here that I'm often looking at.

[Phil Jates]

Like, if the Rams play next week.

[Mike Clay]

If I could stream. That's what I don't. What I don't want to do is like, drop a good defense if I want to use them next week.

[Daniel Dopp]

Correct.

[Mike Clay]

So it's like I'm more likely to drop one in stream like the Saints this week.

[Phil Jates]

Rams play the Falcons next Monday night.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah. So that's appealing. Yeah. So that makes me probably more prone to. I know you have to get there to play that, but I'm. I'm fine with it. But there's a lot of. There's a lot of defenses in that vicinity. Or carry two if you can this time of year. You don't need. I am carrying backs as much.

[Daniel Dopp]

I added the Bills just in case because I don't want to start somebody against the Rams if I can help it. But I will continue to monitor that. I think it's just a good question.

[Phil Jates]

Is JSN Auto in?

[Daniel Dopp]

Yes.

[Phil Jates]

Seahawks defense probably in Jason Myers. Monitor weather tonight.

[Mike Clay]

Yep. Yeah.

[Daniel Dopp]

Okay. Now we turn the page of the Rams Puka.

[Phil Jates]

Nakua Auto in Devonte Adams is officially listed as doubtful. I don't think either of you believes there is a non Puka Nuku, a wide receiver that you want to roll the dice on.

[Mike Clay]

Nope. Good.

[Phil Jates]

Okay.

[Mike Clay]

Not starting them.

[Phil Jates]

It's just Puka.

[Daniel Dopp]

Yep.

[Phil Jates]

Weather tonight. Don't think it matters as much for Colby Parkinson. A lot of his stuff is short range. I'm not concerned about Colby Parkinson as much as I would be, you know, if this was. I'm just making this up. If we were talking about, like, I feel like Jordan Addison's a nice vertical threat for the Vikings. If they're playing this crazy weather, you'd be like, I don't know, man, like some of those targets down the Field are just harder to connect on. Yeah. Kayshawn Booty. Good vertical threat now like those kind of guys I would have more angst over. Colby Parkinson I'm good on. He's whatever top 12ish tight end.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah, I met. I'm more concerned about just them not scoring a lot against a good, a good defense.

[Phil Jates]

Matthew Stafford starting or sitting? We had the conversation yesterday. If you haven't listened to the show yesterday, please go take a listen to the back half of that specifically. And we're concerned though. I mean guys, he's going to add zero with his rushing. Zero and negative.

[Mike Clay]

Yes. Been the case this year. He's negative with his legs.

[Phil Jates]

And so to get above 18 fantasy points, he needs to either throw for 250 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions or turnovers or he needs to throw for 150 yards and three touchdowns with no negative plays. I think you're counting on that.

[Daniel Dopp]

I am not against this defense and it doesn't help because they're playing this defense and his main touchdown maker sounds like is not going to play in this game. Not that he can't find other guys but like if devonte Adams is out there, I feel better about Stafford being able to find the end zone as well. I'd rather go a different direction if I could. At the quarterback spot.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah. And he's finished seven games outside the top 10 as is this year despite throwing almost 40 touchdowns to lead the NFL. I know it's tough to mention number three scoring fantasy quarterback, but in these conditions against this defense, I don't know if he can do it. It's going to be really hard. You're going to kind of hope that he throws 47 passes somehow and it's a volume game. But that's so unlikely in this situation.

[Phil Jates]

Or even like he throws a, like a little slip screen to puka from the 37 yard line and puka just houses it because he's Puka. Rams running backs in, around, out.

[Daniel Dopp]

I'm out.

[Mike Clay]

I mean I think you could justify sneaking Kyron into your lineup depending on your circumstances, but if I could find a way to avoid, I would. I know he'd had a decent game against the Seahawks a few weeks ago. Week 11.

[Phil Jates]

Kyron Choices. Let me see what happened.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah, when they last played it was week 11. But again, he's a zero in the passing game right now. Or he might get you one catch. You might be lucky to get one catch. And he's been so touchdown dependent if he doesn't get in the end zone. You could have a single digit game here against a really good Seattle.

[Phil Jates]

I've got a Kyron versus Aaron Jones dilemma.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah. Was that. That's the. That is like the conversation that's right there. Right there. Yeah.

[Daniel Dopp]

We all.

[Mike Clay]

I think we all agreed. Yeah, I think you maybe went Kyron.

[Daniel Dopp]

But I think I may have went Kyren but like I still have Kyron outside my top 20 of running backs this week. So if I can go another direction.

[Phil Jates]

Estimate a different dynasty league.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah.

[Daniel Dopp]

This is going to be a huge game guys because there are so many people that we have rostered from both of these teams on the first game of Week 16. It's going to help make people make decisions as to what they need to do with the rest of this week.

[Mike Clay]

By the way, you go in estimate or Evan hole.

[Phil Jates]

Stop it.

[Mike Clay]

Saints running back.

[Phil Jates]

I will.

[Mike Clay]

I don't even know I'm leading estimate there. If you're out there choosing but hopefully you don't have to start a Saints running back.

[Daniel Dopp]

If you guys had to pick a winner from this game. Who are you taking?

[Phil Jates]

Who are you?

[Mike Clay]

Good question. I actually. I bet you I have this as a toss up. I have a lot of close calls. I will say we were talking about this before the show. I was with field. This is maybe the hardest pick them week in a long time that I remember. Certainly this year it is. There's a lot of toss ups. I have the Rams 24, Seahawks 22. Wow.

[Phil Jates]

I'm going to go with the Rehawks. The Sam's.

[Mike Clay]

What?

[Daniel Dopp]

He did that on purpose.

[Phil Jates]

Sam, the ramp.

[Daniel Dopp]

He's taking both of them.

[Mike Clay]

Oh, I see what you're doing there. My score by the way, does not. I'll tell you who I just yet.

[Daniel Dopp]

I am going to take the Seattle Seahawks at home in Seattle.

[Phil Jates]

I'm going to go with the Rams ever so slightly.

[Daniel Dopp]

Okay.

[Mike Clay]

Big game.

[Daniel Dopp]

All right.

[Phil Jates]

Now I do want to say this because I did happen to notice Adam Shafter tweeted last night that the Rams plane got delayed.

[Daniel Dopp]

I saw that.

[Phil Jates]

And I'm facing off against Puka and a couple of semis. I do think people need to consider that Puka probably not. Will probably not be very rested tonight.

[Daniel Dopp]

Sure.

[Phil Jates]

So they should probably consider benching him again.

[Mike Clay]

Yes. Against you.

[Phil Jates]

Yes.

[Daniel Dopp]

Yeah.

[Mike Clay]

Against you.

[Daniel Dopp]

It checks out.

[Phil Jates]

Not in general like we're playing it, but those facing off against me.

[Mike Clay]

Who do we say the Niners are playing this week?

[Phil Jates]

They have playing on Monday night against the Indianapolis Colts.

[Mike Clay]

Colts. So if they win that game, they will be Tied with the loser of this game. Yes, they will be 10 and 3, 10 and 3. And then Niners at 10 and 4.

[Phil Jates]

And I may 11 and 3, 11.

[Mike Clay]

I may have an early season bet when the Niners were crushing it to finish third in this division. So I need them to stay at number three. Go, Colts. What you're saying? Yeah, go Colts.

[Daniel Dopp]

These are just huge playoff implications across the board. Real life, NFL playoffs, fantasy playoffs. Like, everything is on the line here with this one.

[Phil Jates]

I'll plug this one more time tomorrow. But you guys, if you're on the old tweet machine. Saw yesterday, ESPN PR announced if you guys want to check out the Monday Night Football playbook, which is a new outcast, ESPN2. Luke Keakley. You admire him.

[Daniel Dopp]

Oh, Luke Keakley's great.

[Phil Jates]

Keakley. Dan Orlofsky.

[Mike Clay]

Okay.

[Daniel Dopp]

We love Dan. Yeah.

[Phil Jates]

And then they just sort of jammed me in there as well, so the three of us with Brian Burke. I know, I know. Our director of our football data scientists, Brian Burke. So, yeah, it'll be. We're gonna have a great time on Monday. It's on espn, too.

[Mike Clay]

Awesome.

[Phil Jates]

The Manning brothers are off this week. You know, they do like 12 or so games each year. So if you want to watch, it's kind of a cool way. And I'm promising you it is going to be like, if you like football knowledge. Those guys are chock full of it.

[Mike Clay]

I'm gonna live. I'm gonna live. Tweet it and just be like, yes, trash. Each guy doesn't know anything. Why do they put him on the air?

[Phil Jates]

No, please, please do that.

[Daniel Dopp]

I cannot wait to see what feel Ghost loose on the deuce.

[Phil Jates]

Good press. I know. Listen, I get loose in the deuce every Sunday morning, but I have not yet done it on a Monday night.

[Daniel Dopp]

Heck, yeah.

[Mike Clay]

Let's go.

[Daniel Dopp]

Love that. All right, we got the poll question that we asked. Let's make sure that chat gives Mike an answer here.

[Phil Jates]

We asked 76 DK, 24 George Pickens.

[Daniel Dopp]

Let's see what the chat says. 54 Pickens. 46%.

[Mike Clay]

Closer, but I still had 57 decaf.

[Daniel Dopp]

57% DK met.

[Mike Clay]

I thought people would lean Metcalf, but he's given people trust issues, too. No doubt.

[Daniel Dopp]

Of course not.

[Phil Jates]

Like, DK has been stellar.

[Daniel Dopp]

Yeah. All right, let's really quickly do our. What is a Raheem Sanders monopoly fund? The guys. Raheem Sanders got some run last week.

[Phil Jates]

He did. He got some run. Not only that, but Mike hit it again.

[Daniel Dopp]

Oh, my God.

[Phil Jates]

Let's go, Mike. I just. It's like, if you're not tilling these, you are moronic. Mike now has hit four times this year, tied with the Producers for the most. Mike takes the monopoly money lead. 120 bucks. So well done, Mike.

[Mike Clay]

Good for you, Mike.

[Phil Jates]

Great one. And by the way, you made your Rasheed and Alipik, you're like, we're not sure if Keaton Mitchell is going to play. And then Mitchell did play, and you still got it.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah. Maybe you got a little bit shout out to you.

[Phil Jates]

No, you didn't.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah. I'll take it, though.

[Phil Jates]

We missed the rest of them, so we've got an opportunity to buy in right now.

[Daniel Dopp]

Yeah. I just want to say one more time that the goose egg that I'm feeling, I feel a lot like Trey McBride right now. Last season, guys, like, I really got to find a way or Deontay Johnson, maybe the year before, you got to.

[Phil Jates]

Be Trey McBride and not Deont.

[Mike Clay]

You've.

[Phil Jates]

Yes.

[Daniel Dopp]

Deontay never, never got in the end zone.

[Mike Clay]

Trey McBride, you've definitely had the worst beat of the year. Who is it? David S. A couple David S. Dropped one targets.

[Phil Jates]

All right, here we go.

[Daniel Dopp]

I'll tell you where I'm going to go, guys. Very first one, because you can always count on a Chargers wide receiver Keandre Lambert Smith against the Dallas Cowboys. Cowboys have allowed the most touchdowns to wide receivers this season. Rostered in 0.1% of leagues, they don't throw the ball to Keen Allen. So why not take Keandre Lambert?

[Mike Clay]

I'll make a bold prediction here. I think he might be a healthy scratch this week.

[Daniel Dopp]

Keandre Lambert Smith.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Daniel Dopp]

He's been off.

[Phil Jates]

Yeah.

[Mike Clay]

If Quentin plays, I don't even think he's gonna be active. All right.

[Daniel Dopp]

If that's the case, then I'm going. Well, I'll wait. I gotta back up in case he doesn't play. So I'll throw one out there once you guys are done. I'll make sure that you don't. I don't know.

[Mike Clay]

Does you get it? Do you get it for a healthy scratch? Because that's it. No, we'll give it to you.

[Daniel Dopp]

All right.

[Mike Clay]

I appreciate you.

[Daniel Dopp]

Yeah, I think because you've got a zero. I've got a zero. You do. Give it to me.

[Mike Clay]

We need you to get one. Yeah.

[Phil Jates]

So we are taking one.

[Daniel Dopp]

I got a guy. I got a guy.

[Phil Jates]

I think there's probably evidence that if you pick a player who scored a touchdown last week, it's a little bit of a reach. Right. Like these guys are unlikely to score a touchdown in any week. Keandra Lambert Smith scored a touchdown last week. Expecting it to happen again is kind of foolish.

[Mike Clay]

It's tough.

[Phil Jates]

And I'm going with Marquez Valdez scantling.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah.

[Daniel Dopp]

Last week.

[Phil Jates]

So MBS makes my list this week. Mbs who of course back with Aaron Rodgers. We were talking about how that Lions defense has been generous to perimeter wide receivers. MVS would fall into that category.

[Daniel Dopp]

Two defenses that allowed the most touchdowns to wide receivers this season, Cowboys and the Detroit Lions.

[Mike Clay]

I'm going way the other direction.

[Daniel Dopp]

Okay.

[Mike Clay]

I picked this before. I was severely concerned about the weather, but I'm going back. Remember I I we showed the graphic. I've hit four times this year. I'm thinking one of those guys that hit for me.

[Daniel Dopp]

No Canada. Mumfield.

[Mike Clay]

Kanata Mumfield.

[Daniel Dopp]

No, you are not.

[Phil Jates]

Actually talk him up.

[Mike Clay]

Yeah, he said he's kind of the guy that's been like under his under Devonte Adams wing. He he played a little bit last week. I think it was like 40% of the snap, something like that with Adam. Said he wasn't used much in the passing game, but he did hit for us on a Sunday morning earlier this season. Yep. I'm again, I'm a little more nervous about the passing game with the weather now and I know it's against a tough defense, but I had to go back to my guy in this situation. I thought about Davis Allen too, from the same game, the Rams tight end. But come on, let's get make it two. You got to.

[Phil Jates]

Why not?

[Mike Clay]

Let's have them both hit for the Raheem Sanders Monopoly fund. Had to do it.

[Daniel Dopp]

Our producers are taking probably the most taken player from this segment overall, Greg Dulcich still rostered only 0.1% of leagues. Still getting a bunch of targets. Not sure what it's going to look like with the Bengals, but it is the Bengals defense, so we'll see how that works out. My backup is going to be jets quarterback Brady Cook, who was rostered in 0.1% of leagues. Maybe he gets a rushing touchdown.

[Phil Jates]

Guys, that would have to be an anytime. Touchdown.

[Daniel Dopp]

Anything. Yeah. Not a passing touchdown. It's an anytime. So I'll take Brady Cook just for the fun of it. No one's ever taken a quarterback so far this year, have they?

[Mike Clay]

I think you tried to early in the year. We shut it down or we to Rod Taylor.

[Daniel Dopp]

I think there was a situation there. You're right. Yeah, you did shut it down.

[Mike Clay]

No, that's good.

[Phil Jates]

The rules are being bent.

[Daniel Dopp]

I love it.

[Mike Clay]

As long as it's rushing or over receiving, I'll be catches one. That'd be. That would be.

[Daniel Dopp]

Stop it.

[Mike Clay]

If he catches. Oh, my gosh. Why not? Jets. Yolo. All right.

[Daniel Dopp]

That's going to do it for us today. Today's show is presented by Wingstop. Make sure that you have fun watching Thursday Night Football and set your Saturday lineup while you're at it. Don't forget, we got two games on Saturday. Make sure you get those players switched.

[Mike Clay]

Over while you're doing it. Watch that weather.

[Daniel Dopp]

Make sure you're watching the weather.

[Mike Clay]

Jacob, Jake, Myers and warm ups. Kick it and the ball just turns right hand and goes into the seats. You might want to make a change. Yes.

[Daniel Dopp]

Do not want to have that. All right, guys, we love you. Don't forget to love each other and be kind to yourself. You deserve it. Have fun with Thursday Night Football. We'll see you guys tomorrow here on Friday.

[Mike Clay]

Sam foreign.

[Phil Jates]

The NBA is happening Christmas Day. Five games, one unforgettable lineup. That's what Christmas is all about. Buckets for breakfast, breakaways for dessert. It's the holiday tradition. Christmas is our day with star power from across the globe.

[Daniel Dopp]

The stars, they are going to be out.

[Phil Jates]

The best gift. You don't even have to unwrap it.

[Daniel Dopp]

We want to say Merry Christmas and Happy New Year NBA.

[Phil Jates]

Christmas Day begins at noon Eastern on ABC and espn.