Facts vs Feelings: Make These Week 16 Calls and Win 🏆 | Fantasy Focus 🏈

Summary

Fantasy Focus Football: "Facts vs Feelings: Make These Week 16 Calls and Win 🏆"

Date: December 18, 2025
Hosts: Liz Loza, Producer Presley, Sal Lido (guest)

Episode Overview

This episode of the “Fantasy Focus Football: Facts vs Feelings” spotlights key decisions for Week 16 of the fantasy football season—the semifinal round for most leagues. Liz Loza helms the episode with Producer Presley’s input, welcoming fantasy historian Sal Lido for expert insight. Together, they blend hard data (“facts”) with the emotional rollercoaster of lineup management (“feelings”), helping listeners make confident playoff choices. The episode features sharp start/sit debates, listener voicemails, memorable fantasy heartbreaks and triumphs, and actionable tips rooted in both statistics and fantasy football history.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Bo Nix: Confident Start or Trap?

• [02:43–04:13] Liz reviews Bo Nix’s fantasy outlook following a 29-point week.
  • Recent Production: Top-10 in pass attempts, yards, and touchdowns; averaging 18+ FPPG.
  • Home/Road Splits: At home (Denver), Nix averages 20.5 FPPG and 14 TDs versus just 16.5 FPPG on the road.
  • Week 16 Outlook: Facing Jacksonville (who’ve inflated QB stats, but mostly against rookies). Ranked as QB15 for the week; Liz would start Purdy over Nix, but "possibly over Dak Prescott or Matt Stafford."
  • Quote:

    "A little bit more than a little bit, baby."
    —Liz Loza on her confidence in Bo Nix [04:17]

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Quinshon Judkins: Rebound Potential?

• [04:19–06:09]
  • Recent Struggles: Only 7.2 FPPG over last 5 weeks; hindered by stacked defenses and a lackluster Cleveland offense.
  • Optimism for Week 16:
    • Bills allow 3rd-most 20+ yard runs and 5th-most fantasy points to RBs.
    • Judkins averages 17 carries/game, with increased pass-game usage due to teammate injuries (Dylan Sampson banged up).
    • Projection:

      "I am optimistic because I expect that the Browns will try to play keep away from Josh Allen early. They will lean on Judkins...he’ll likely rip off a couple of long runs, which should give fantasy managers enough points to get Judkins to a top 15 positional fantasy finish."
      —Liz Loza [05:48]

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Tyler Warren: Trust with a New QB?

• [06:39–08:42]
  • Volume Stays Consistent: Averages 6 targets/game, even with Philip Rivers at QB.
  • Rivers Loves TEs: Historically top-10 in TE target rate.
  • Seahawks to 49ers Shift: While Rivers struggled under Seattle’s heavy pressure, San Francisco brings less pressure, opening Warren up for a bounce-back.
  • Fantasy Range:

    "I do think there’s an opportunity between the volume and the matchup ... for Warren to produce at least top 10. I have him ranked higher, inside my top 8 fantasy numbers at the tight end position in week 16."
    —Liz Loza [08:34]

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Listener Therapy: Cash Outs, Crash Outs & Voicemail Advice

On Mike Evans: The Bold Start Dilemma

• [11:51–13:29]
  • Listener Alex recounts last-minute panic over whether to start Mike Evans or Michael Pittman. Calls Liz for advice—she champions boldness.
  • Quote:

    "I can’t go on facts vs feelings ... and tell people to be bold and then advise you to sit Mike Evans in a game that had critical postseason implications."
    —Liz Loza [12:43]

  • Result: Evans delivers; boldness rewarded.

ETN vs. Judkins vs. Hampton

• [14:18–16:02]
  • Listener asks: With Travis Etienne facing Denver, should they start him, Judkins or Amarian Hampton?
  • Analysis:
    • Etienne had a big Week 15, but production was fluky (two long catches).
    • With Tutin injured, Etienne’s role is safer, but Judkins is Liz’s top choice this week, followed by ETN, then Hampton.
  • Memorable Line:

    "Every good millennial knows you don't go chasing waterfalls or TDs."
    —Liz Loza, on relying on unpredictable touchdowns [15:57]

Playoff Heartbreak: The Mike Evans Sit

• [16:08–17:23]
  • Michelle from NJ recounts losing by 3 points after sitting Evans last minute; her opponent didn’t even set a lineup.
  • Liz offers empathy and commiseration, highlighting league rule adjustment ideas to avoid “ghost lineup” upsets.

Cash Out: Soldier Field, Kyle Pitts & Bears Win

• [17:45–18:59]
  • “Top” calls in from Soldier Field (possibly inebriated), thrilled about a last-second win thanks to Kyle Pitts.
  • Liz provides comedic relief by riffing in a Chicago accent and celebrates the rare “Pitts-led playoff victory”.

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Interview with Sal Lido: History, Strategy, and Hot Takes

Week 16 Trends & Mindset

• [19:41–21:06]
  • Teams push hard for NFL playoff clinches—star players in playoff-race teams are safe starts in semifinals but watch for rest-risk in Week 17.
  • Advice:

    "Set your best lineup, but prepare for what you're going to find on week 17."
    —Sal Lido [20:56]

Start Your Stars... or Matchups?

• [21:06–22:27]
  • Don’t default to “studs only” or “matchups only”—consider both, and scout your opponent's matchups.
  • High-ceiling plays are key if your opponent has volatile or high-upside rosters.
  • Underdog callouts:
    • Michael Carter (Arizona) & all players in the Arizona-Atlanta matchup
    • Luther Burden, Jawar Jordan (Waiver claims worth making)

Confident Sit and Start

• [22:38–24:14]
  • Sit: Aston Genti (Las Vegas Raiders RB)

    "I predict that the Raiders may be only the fourth team ... to be shut out in back-to-back weeks ... I am not playing Aston Genti anywhere."
    —Sal Lido [22:41]

  • Start: Woody Marks (opponent’s side in the same game)—if he’s out, Jawar Jordan is a strong pivot for volume.

    "If Woody Marks is a late scratch ... start Jawar Jordan ... I'm just expecting pure volume."
    —Sal Lido [24:10]

Sal’s Hot Take

• [24:14–24:31]
  • Gardner Minshew (Kansas City) will be a top 10 QB in Week 16 due to a great matchup and game script.

    "Gardner Minshew will be a top 10 quarterback in Week 16."
    —Sal Lido [24:17]

Fantasy Lore: Championship Surprises

• [24:31–26:30]
  • Jerome Harrison (2009) & Tim Hightower (2015) as historical examples of “league-winning” playoff surprises.
  • Deep Week 16 sleeper: Jacory Kroas-Merritt—look for unexpected RBs on teams with great matchups vs. soft run defenses.

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"Smash or Pass": Lightning Round Start/Sit Games

• [28:47–31:13]
  • Justin Jefferson vs. Giants: Pass (concerns with Minnesota offense)
  • Devon Achane vs. Cincinnati: Smash (upside regardless of QB)
  • Deep Dish Pizza: Smash ("delectable, delightful" —Sal Lido [30:14])
  • Trevor Lawrence vs. Denver: Pass (expecting a slog, prefers to pivot off Jags/Broncos stacks)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Bold Fantasy Decisions:

  "I can't go on facts vs feelings ... and tell people to be bold and then advise you to sit Mike Evans."
  – Liz Loza [12:43]

• On Regret and Community:

  "Michelle, sweet baby friend Michelle. Oh my gosh. I like want to hang out with you and console you, girl. Can we get Prosecco and eat cookies and snuggle on the couch together?"
  – Liz Loza, supporting a heartbroken listener [16:19]

• On Historical Surprises:

  "Somebody will win championships that you never expected."
  – Sal Lido [25:56]

• On the True Meaning:

  "Satisfaction is sometimes more important than winning. Remember, we don't get to decide how something ends. We do, however, get to bask in the glory of the story."
  – Liz Loza [33:11]

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Important Timestamps & Segments

• [02:43] — Bo Nix Week 16 outlook
• [04:19] — Quinshon Judkins bounce-back case
• [06:39] — Tyler Warren's viability despite QB concerns
• [11:51] — Voicemail: Mike Evans playoff panic
• [14:18] — Start/Sit breakdown: ETN vs. Judkins vs. Hampton
• [16:08] — Listener heartbreak: Evans sit, playoff loss
• [17:45] — Listener victory: Kyle Pitts & Soldier Field story
• [18:59] — Guest Sal Lido joins; fantasy history and Week 16 trends
• [22:38] — Most confident sit of the week (Aston Genti)
• [24:14] — Favorite start: Woody Marks/Jawar Jordan
• [24:17] — Hot take: Gardner Minshew as top-10 QB
• [28:47] — Smash or Pass segment (Justin Jefferson, Achane, T. Law)

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Final Thoughts & Advice

• Week 16 is for maximizing satisfaction with your fantasy process, not just chasing victory.
• Lean into high-volume RB matchups and don’t blindly start your studs—adapt to context, matchups, and playoff incentives.
• Remember, fantasy heartbreak (down to the last lineup swap) is part of the journey. Seek community, celebrate bold moves, and play with no regrets.
• Consider team motivations and playoff statuses—Week 17 could bring player rest, so plan ahead.

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For more advice:
Check out Liz Loza’s “Fact vs Feelings” column and call in with questions and stories: 914-348-1893.

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Tone throughout: Upbeat, supportive, empathetic, with a dash of humor and nostalgia—the perfect recipe for playoff week advice.

Transcript

[Liz Loza]

So good, so good, so good. Score holiday gifts.

[Sal Lido]

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[Liz Loza]

Save on Ugg, Nike, Rag and bone, Vince Frame, Kurt Geiger, London and more.

[Producer Presley]

Cause there's always something new.

[Liz Loza]

I'm giving all the gifts this year with that extra 5% off when I use my Nordstrom credit card. Santa who join the Nordy club at.

[Sal Lido]

Nordstrom rack to unlock our best deals.

[Liz Loza]

It's easy.

[Sal Lido]

Big gifts, big perks. That's why you wreck.

[Liz Loza]

Hi, I'm Liz Loza and this is facts versus feelings. Your amuse bouche to your fantasy Focus main course. We are bringing more fantasy, more facts, more feelings and of course, more fun. And now that I have your attention, today's fact is that satisfaction is key. We have producer Presley back in the control room. Thank you, Dave, for joining us. What is facts versus feelings, by the way, without a little chill from the east coast? Is it cold there? Because I'm flying in on Friday. So it is.

[Producer Presley]

It is cold.

[Liz Loza]

What should I prepare for?

[Producer Presley]

Definitely more than your shacket. Then the, you know you're going to need a little bit more than that. Albeit it is going to warm up when you as always, when Liz loser decides to travel east, she brings the sunshine with her. So it is going to, it's going to warm up a little bit. It is not as cold as my fantasy teams were in week 15. I was eliminated from all four playoffs. So I'm here just for, you know, we're going to get everybody else to a championship this week. Liz.

[Liz Loza]

Oh, I'm so sorry to hear that. I maybe, maybe you should have called the voicemail line.

[Producer Presley]

I got Roma Dunzee. I got Roma Duzayed in at least three leagues. It was one of those like set my lineup, go get a beer, come back and he was out. So screwed me over. I had Trevor Lawrence shout out to Joey Wright and he still lost with Trevor Lawrence. So it is what it is. Now we jump into time machine and look forward to a draft season next year.

[Liz Loza]

All right, well understood. We can like next year, but we can still like the present and our viewers and listeners can also like and subscribe to this video. Go ahead and smash that button and also do what Dave didn't do and call the voicemail line.

[Producer Presley]

That number, David is 914-348-1893. We check those on Mondays. Give us all your lineup questions, give us your cash outs, your crash outs and any life advice. We've not had any life advice yet this year. I just wanted one life advice Voicemail. So give us something.

[Liz Loza]

We had a couple. I just don't think they made the show. Anyway, before we get to that, hit the disclaimer.

[Producer Presley]

Fantasy football is a game of inches, luck and irrational confidence. Proceed with caution, trust your gut and remember, side effects of listening to this podcast may include spontaneous victory dances, mild trash talking, and a belief that your sleeper pick is better than everyone else's. Take the facts of fantasy football seriously, but consult your feelings before making any lineup changes.

[Guest Announcer]

I see us winning out there tonight. I have no trouble seeing that.

[Producer Presley]

Well, week 16 is all about satisfaction, Liz. And everybody who rostered this player was very satisfied in Week 15 with his 29 fantasy points, but he goes up against a tough Jags defense in week 16. What are we feeling about Bo Nicks this week?

[Liz Loza]

You know, I am optimistic about Bo Nicks and I'm not too worried about the matchup. The Jaguars have actually allowed the 10th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks now over the last three weeks. That has been pretty stiff, but it's also because they've taken on three rookies in a row. Cam Cam Ward, Riley Leonard, and then Brady Cook. Those numbers I think are inflated and not really telling the truth of the whole situation. But meanwhile, Knicks ranks inside the top 10 at the position in pass attempts, passing yards, passing scores and rushing touchdowns. He's also averaging over 18 fantasy points per game. And even better, he has been fire at Mile High Stadium. His home road splits are super illuminating and he is playing the Jaguars at home. He has thrown 14 touchdowns and is averaging 20.5 fantasy points per game. And at in Denver on the road, just nine passing scores and 16 and a half fantasy points per game. I have him ranked as my QB15 for the week. So a little bit of trepidation, but you know, I do have him. I'm probably starting Brock Purdy in the same league ahead of him. Still, I would consider starting Knicks over say, oh, Dak Prescott or maybe even Matt Stafford.

[Producer Presley]

All right, so there's a little bit of confidence in Bo Knicks heading into into this week.

[Liz Loza]

A little bit more than a little bit, baby.

[Producer Presley]

Okay, There's a little bit more than a confidence heading through week 16 with Bo Nicks. There's going to be a little bit less confidence for this next player running back who has only averaged 7.2 fantasy points over the last five week lids. But you think there might be a little bit of a bounce back for one Mr. Quinch on Judkins.

[Liz Loza]

You know, I do think there's a rebound loading. I'm hesitating because there's no disputing that he's in a tough spot. Right? The Cleveland Browns offense does not create an environment conducive to explosive production. So let's go ahead and acknowledge the obstacles facing Judkins right now. Number one, he has faced a stacked front for 12% of his carries. That is quite a lot. That's also affected his efficiency. It's why he's averaging just 3.9 yards per touch. But here are the good things. The matchup is solid and volume is king. That is why I am optimistic. Let's talk about the matchup first. The Bills have given up the fifth most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Even better, they have allowed the third most runs of 20 or more yards. Meanwhile, Judkins is averaging 17 carries per game. He's also recorded three catches in two of his last three games. And Dylan Sampson remains banged up. So his so Judkins usage as a pass catcher could remain buoyant here, particularly if Sampson doesn't take the field. So basically I am optimistic because I expect that the Browns will try to play keep away from Josh Allen early. They will lean on Judkins. He will not be efficient, but he will have the volume and he'll likely rip off a couple of long runs, which should give fantasy managers enough points to get Judkins to a top 15 positional fantasy finish.

[Producer Presley]

Yeah, I mean recently I think you start your running backs against the Bills and it pays off. So hopefully that is exactly what happens with Judkins heading into this week. You know what Liz? It would not be an episode of Facts versus Feelings if we didn't talk about a tight end. You are the tight end whisperer after all, and this player was the number one tight end over the first 10 weeks of the season, but over the last five weeks has dropped down the tight end 14 and lost his stud studding quarterback. Please talk Tyler Warren managers off the ledge as they head into their semifinal matchups.

[Liz Loza]

Well, it's interesting that you're highlighting the change in quarterback because Warren has averaged around six targets per game regardless of who was under center for the Colts. And that stayed true with Philip Rivers under center in week 15 because Warren actually led the team in looks with exactly six so that volume stays steady. Also, Rivers has a history of regularly targeting the tight end position. In fact, if you took his average over when he was playing and matched it to the current season, he'd rank about ninth, meaning he would target the tight end position ninth most among quarterbacks. So that Always. That also bodes well for Warren. I understand that there is some concern with Warren's efficiency and there was, particularly in week 15 because traditionally the Seahawks, at least on paper, are rather generous to the tight end position. But I think what managers are ForGetting is number one, 44 year old Philip Rivers, hella rusty man's coming off the couch, right? And number two, Mike McDonald, the defensive play caller for the Seahawks loves to send pressure. So you have a rusty aged quarterback getting pressured all the time. His instincts, his reflex is not as fast. In fact, the Seahawks bring pressure at the fourth highest rate. That thankfully now that a little bit of rust has been shaken off as well, won't be the case against San Francisco because the 49ers defense gets the least amount of pressure in the NFL. And San Francisco can also be had over the middle, which was evidenced by the fact that the Titans pair of tight ends managed 8 of 10 grabs for 82 yards against them in week 15. So I do think there's an opportunity between the volume and the matchup and honestly Rivers, you know, finding himself a little bit more getting his legs for Warren to produce at least top 10. I have him ranked higher inside my top 8 fantasy numbers at the tight end position in week 16.

[Producer Presley]

One of my favorite things from week 15 was seeing Philip Rivers just get that juice back. You could see the adrenaline. He was like getting fired up on the sideline coming back. Hopefully that turns into positive production for Tyler Warren heading into this week. And it wouldn't be an episode of Facts versus Feelings if you didn't throw some love to your boy Chicaconkwo.

[Liz Loza]

I didn't even mention him because I thought you were gonna mention Gunner Helm instead, which has been a little bit of a stab in the heart.

[Sal Lido]

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[Liz Loza]

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[Guest Announcer]

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[Producer Presley]

This is a safe place.

[Sal Lido]

It's a place where we can feel.

[Liz Loza]

Free sharing our feelings. Now let's get comfortable on the couch and dive into fantasy therapy, a safe space for all of your fantasy football questions. Producer, what do we have?

[Producer Presley]

Ooh, we got quite a few this week, but we're gonna open up with a good friend, producer Alex, who had a cash out when it comes to Mike Evans.

[Liz Loza]

Okay, I think I know what this is about. Come on, Alex. I didn't know this was happening on the show, but let's go.

[Sal Lido]

Yeah. That cash out was not my doing. I had a plan all week, but when Mike Evans was announced as a go, I got into a full panic. Luckily, I've got the phone number of a fantasy football analyst in my cell. Gave Liz a ring and she walked me through it and it worked. Kind of.

[Liz Loza]

That is true. I will say that Alex, like, sent out the bat signal. And like, lest anyone think I have some sort of glamorous life, he was like, I'm so sorry to call you. I don't want to bother you. I'm like, bro, I am listening to a murder podcast, folding laundry. We are Fine. It is the first.

[Producer Presley]

Not surprising.

[Liz Loza]

And he was like, what do we do? Michael Pittman or Mike Evans? He might be on a snap count. And I mean, basically. Right, Alex, like, we talked it through. But the answer was, I can't go on facts versus feelings, either my column or the pod, and tell people to be bold and then advise you to sit Mike Evans in a game that had critical postseason implications in favor of Mike Pittman, who has Philip Rivers under center. So we went for. We made the bold choice, and I'm glad it worked out and didn't buy it. Worked out quite well.

[Sal Lido]

In fact, it did worked out quite well. Unfortunately. Fortunately, the league where I started them didn't win the league.

[Producer Presley]

So it wasn't a cash out.

[Sal Lido]

So it was kind of a cash out.

[Liz Loza]

I didn't realize that this episode's about.

[Sal Lido]

Satisfaction, and we got the satisfaction of making the right call. So I'm good with it.

[Liz Loza]

Thank you, Alex, for demonstrating the whole point of this week's pod and column. I really appreciate it. I'm sorry you didn't win. But for managers who are advancing and did use Mike Evans, I would suggest you do it again in week 16. 19.2 fantasy points in week 15. And another game with massive postseason implications at the division rival Carolina Panthers. Big postseason implications, frankly, for both of these teams. Also, for what it's worth, a little fact, Mike Evans, in his last six games against the Panthers, has averaged 26.2 fantasy points. Uh, he is definitely worthy of top 25 consideration at the position in week 16.

[Producer Presley]

Hey, now. And thank you, Alex, for proving that if you call the hotline, you're gonna get advice that works. Granted, we don't have to call the hotline. We just call Liz directly. But we can't show you. We can't share her number on here because at the end of the day, geez. Um, but we do have another question coming up from Social. Question. Liz, you ready? This one is from DJ Jambit Yambit. I don't know if the J silent. They have a lineup question. ETN in week 16. Tough to sit. But facing Denver, other options. Judkins, who we spoke about. Amarian Hampton. Dallas. Dallas, got it.

[Liz Loza]

Okay, so I understand that on paper, ETN had a monster week 15. He cleared 70 receiving yards. But asterisk. The bulk of that production came on two catches, one of over 20 yards and the other one on around like 45 yards yards. Otherwise, he's averaged 14 receiving yards per game. So this is a bit of an outlier situation. Again, you mentioned the matchup not very easy. Though I will say that volume could lean in his favor because it was reported earlier this week that Basil Tutin, his backfield mate, will be undergoing finger surgery and out for the rest of the regular season. At not still all of that being said, I would prefer to start Quintean Judkins for all of the reasons highlighted earlier. If I were to rank these players, Judkins I'd start first. Then ETN is my RB2 if possible. Not knowing who you have Hampton a little bit below ETN only because he's still in this backfield split with Kamani Vidal and Dallas Goddard. Right. Like you love that he got the touchdowns last week, but you can't rely on that. And every good millennial knows that you don't go chasing waterfalls or TDs.

[Producer Presley]

So we're going to move to my favorite pot of this entire show and that that is crash outs.

[Liz Loza]

I'm a masochist.

[Producer Presley]

Oh, I know. I love it. You know it. You know it. And I just can't help myself because, you know, I like to crash out myself. This crash out comes from Michelle from the good old state in New Jersey.

[Liz Loza]

I just lost my playoffs by three points. As soon as Mike Evans was activated, I put him in my starting lineup and four minutes before kickoff I took him out. So I just lost someone who left Calvin Ridley as their flex. He didn't even set his lineup and this is a work week so I think I have to call up or maybe just quit at this point. I'm down bad. Oh my goodness. Michelle, Sweet baby friend Michelle. Oh my gosh. I like want to hang out with you and console you, girl. Can we get Prosecco and eat cookies and snuggle on the couch together? The emotion in your voice touched me. I understand going back and forth about Mike Evans. We should stay bold though. And F this guy who's not even setting his lineup. There should be next year rules in your league that you amend that this sort of behavior will get you eliminated from the playoffs automatically. So if it happens again, then he's out. You would win. And I also just have to say congratulations for making the playoffs because you did what a lot of teams can't do.

[Producer Presley]

Yep, I agree. Record this and play it at work rules. If you do not set a full lineup in the playoffs, you automatically lose. That is, I'm a firm believer in that. All right, let's end on a positive. We'll cash out for the last. I know, I know. We'll cash out for the last One here. This is from Top and he was actually at Soldier Field.

[Sal Lido]

It's your boy Top coming to you live from Soldier Field. I think I lost a couple of toes but I had Kyle Pitts going.

[Producer Presley]

Top's hammered.

[Liz Loza]

Top is hammered Top coming with the best Chicago accent. Would you like me to drop into my Chicago accent for a second? My. My maz here and so it's okay for me to do it, but I'm really surprised at how Top just brought it all back. Like I don't even need to have a beer in my system to be able to get to this place. Top, thank you or Top, thank you so much for thinking of us and me while you are celebrating a Kyle Pitts vict victory, a Kyle Pitts lead victory at Soldier Field. While the Bears are also winning. This is the best cash out to go out on. You're awesome. Happy holidays. Let's do it again against Green Bay. Today's guest is basically the keeper of fantasy lore and a guy unhinged enough to stay live for 24 plus hours. He's the creator and host of the SFB Potathon and the mind behind the FF Historian. Please welcome to the show Mr. Sal Lido. Hi, Sal.

[Sal Lido]

Hey, Liz, how are you? Thanks for having me. And yes, I knew I wasn't good at a lot of things in life, but two things I was good at was one, being old, so the historian stuff, and two, being able to stay awake. That is my actual quality I bring. So staying awake 24 hours and interviewing different guests every 30 minutes is kind of my specialty.

[Liz Loza]

So your superpower is not needing very much sleep. I have that superpower. Well, we hung out in Vegas together and you know, the sun didn't necessarily rise, but it was close to it. Those nights that we were vegasing quite.

[Sal Lido]

A good time in Fremont street. As we we mentioned Fremont, Sal is here. Fremont street lights up like it's the middle of the day. It never is nighttime or Fremont Street.

[Liz Loza]

I will say that Sal is sneakily a hell of a dancer. So I'm going to ask you to help our viewers two step their way to a championship victory. We gotta get through week 16 first. So I'm interested to know, as a fantasy football historia, as a fantasy football history buff, what's a trend that you've discovered that affects how you approach Week 16 specifically or just the fantasy playoffs in general?

[Sal Lido]

Yeah, I think what you have to pay attention to is what NFL teams are doing. Right. NFL teams. As much as we'd like them to do what we want for our fancy teams. They're not trying to win you championships, they're trying to win themselves championships. So you have a lot of things going on. Nine teams have an opportunity to clinch a playoff spot this week. Should they do that? You need to be prepared for week 17 for some of those players, those teams to be getting rested. But you want to go full scale on all of those teams and their players this week because they're going out to win NFL games. So I am finding traditionally in week semis, those teams. But by week championship, not necessarily. Why do I say semis championship? Because prior to 2021, week 16 was fantasy football championship week. So what I'm saying is week 16, set your best lineup, but prepare for what you're going to find on week 17.

[Liz Loza]

You obviously play fantasy and you're a historian. So I'm going to ask you from both angles in Week 16, when the stakes, as you mentioned are so high, are you a like, start your stars kind of guy or are strictly a matchup advocate?

[Sal Lido]

So I'm both, and I think you need to be both. In all facets of fantasy from draft day to the playoffs. If you're not looking at your studs as well as their matchups, then you're going to fail. You don't want to just look at your team's matchups. You want to look at your opponent's matchups. Why? Okay, so let's say your opponent has a really tough schedule coming up. You might want to go with your four players, nice solid guys. They've been there for me all year. I'm going to play them, I'm going to get that and I'm going to hit that median number. But if you look across and they have some boat race guys, guys that are going to be out there on those teams that are looking to qualify for the playoffs, you might want to go with your high ceiling guys. And I'm going to give you a couple of guys that I'm. That I'm interested in. I got Michael Carter, right, who's going to be taken over in Arizona this week. Across the board, start everybody that you have on the Arizona Cardinals and the Atlanta Falcons in this week's game. I expect that to be the highest scoring game of the week. Luther Burden might be somebody you know something about. Jabar Jordan. Jawar Jordan, I believe is how you say his name.

[Liz Loza]

I just put in a waiver claim for him. In a league, you have to be.

[Sal Lido]

Prepared for some of these guys.

[Liz Loza]

I'm going to ask you, Sal now We don't like to be negative but we do need to be informed, particularly in week 16. So what is your most confident sit for?

[Sal Lido]

This is going to. This is going to hurt my feelings to say this out loud because I am an old school, a born and raised New Yorker who is a the Oakland Los Angeles Las Vegas Raider fan. Right. And the Raiders are bad. The Raiders are epically bad. And I predict that the Raiders may be only the fourth team but only has 25 years to be shut out in back to back weeks. So it's very possible that that happens. And for that reason I am not playing Aston Genti. I'm not playing Aston Genti anywhere. I have him and I have that decision to make this week in a semifinal and he's going to my bench. In the last two weeks he's at 5.8 points. He's at 8.2 points and he has only scored 1.1 touchdown in the last five games.

[Liz Loza]

We're aware Sale. We don't need to rub it in. We're aware of the dip. We're aware. Thank you very much.

[Sal Lido]

That's right. You were a big ass and Genti person preseason and forgot about that.

[Liz Loza]

Yes, but let's get more positive then so we can heal up. Who is your favorite start in week 16?

[Sal Lido]

Let's just go right across the other side of the field. And I do believe Woody Marks is healthy and going to play. So since one team's going to be getting shut out, that means the other team's going to be shutting out. And by the second half, early second half, I fully expect that they'll be running the clock and so Woody Marks will be getting those. He's had the volume lately until the left with an injury last week. But again the coach came out and said he could have come back if needed, but they were, they were humming along with Jordan in there. Should Woody Marks be a late scratch? The waiver claim like Liz put in have Jawar Jordan on your roster. I would start either one of those two guys who ever started the game this week because I'm just expecting pure volume.

[Liz Loza]

Give me one hot take for week 16.

[Sal Lido]

Here's a hot take and this is a guy I just picked up in Scott Fishbowl. Gardner Minshew will be a top 10 quarterback in week 16. Right.

[Liz Loza]

And I'm not starting him. I love this sale. I'm starting him in a 16 team keeper league.

[Sal Lido]

He's a lunatic. Right. So he's going to go out there and sling the ball around and they have weapons. Now we did hear that Rachi Rice, he's in concussion protocol, right? So one of his big weapons is not going to be there in Kansas City this week. But we still have Kelsey, we still have all the other many wide receivers that are on that team and he is going to get the opportunity. The team on the other side, they've only had six interceptions all year. So even a guy who tends to put the ball in precarious situations maybe may not be in a bad spot this week. The Titans are bad. Gardner Minshew hot take top 10 on the week and you know Liz, I did have a couple of players here that I want to revisit since I'm a historian and we want to talk about players in the past that you did not expect to help people win championships, but did back in 2009, running back for the Cleveland Browns, Jerome Harrison, 1,681 career yards. In week 15 of that year he got 296 of those yards and three touchdowns. And in week 16148 yards and one touchdown. And the last guy I'll bring up, Tim Hightower in 2015 with the Saints. He had been out of football since 2011 four years and Mark Ingram got hurt. And in comes Tim Hightower. He finished as the RB1 in championship week. 27 carries, 122 yards, two touchdowns, three receptions, 47 yards, 31.9 points. Somebody will win championships that you never expected. And for me look at Jacori, Krosky, Merritt. I know Rodriguez is back practicing this week. You have the Cowboys and the Eagles on the docket. They're both bottom 10 defenses. They give up plus 25 points to running backs over the last three weeks and the Eagles have given up double digit running back points to two running backs in each of the last two weeks. So I don't even care that Rodriguez is back healthy.

[Liz Loza]

I love Sal that you are teaching us the history so we can repeat it. That is awes. Thank you so much. Do you want to play a game?

[Sal Lido]

I love to play games.

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[Sal Lido]

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[Liz Loza]

Having four kids that you know about.

[Sal Lido]

Is is actually getting a direct line to the big man up north.

[Liz Loza]

And this year he wants you to know the best gift that you can give someone is the gift of Mint Mobile's unlimited wireless for $15 a month.

[Sal Lido]

Now you don't even need to wrap it.

[Liz Loza]

Give it a [e-mail] Switch upfront payment of $45 for three month plan equivalent to $15 per month required new customer offer for first three months only. Speed slow after 35 gigabytes. If network's busy, taxes and fees extra. See mintmobile.com. We're gonna play a little something called Smash or pass. It's another game that I think you're familiar with. A little different on this show, though. I'm gonna throw out a name every round and maybe something else that's a little bit random, so stay tuned. If it's a smash, that means you're into it, you're down. And if it's a pass, you wanna walk away. So make sense?

[Sal Lido]

Absolutely.

[Liz Loza]

All right, let's do it. Number one, Justin Jefferson versus the Giants. Smash or pass.

[Sal Lido]

God, how can I say pass the Justin Jefferson. But I have to pass. It's just, it's brutally bad. And all of a sudden TJ Hawkinson's a thing again in Minnesota. So I'm passing.

[Liz Loza]

It is a tough pill to swallow, but a necessary one. All right, Devon Achan versus Cincinnati. Smash. Smasher pass.

[Sal Lido]

I don't care if two is on the bench. Devin Han is a smash for me every day of the week and twice on Sunday. He has proven that he could do it in the backfield. He has proven he could do it coming out of the backfield. So smash all day on Devin Han deep dish pizza.

[Liz Loza]

Smash or pass.

[Sal Lido]

So I am, as a New Yorker, a guy who thinks that deep dish pizza is fantastic. And I was in Chicago.

[Liz Loza]

Marry me, Sam. Marry me.

[Sal Lido]

You might already be married. I think so. So I was in Chicago and for the Scott Fishbowl draft this year. It's the first time I'd been in Chicago and I wanted real good deep dish and Joe Bryant of the football guys invited me out with his team. And you have Joey Wright on all the time. Good friend Joey Wright. And I went and I had. The name of the place is escaping.

[Liz Loza]

Me now, but Pequods. I think you went to Pequods.

[Sal Lido]

It was Pequods, correct?

[Liz Loza]

Yes. Quads? Sure.

[Sal Lido]

However you want to say it. It was delectable, delightful. And I'm in. Yes. Smash.

[Liz Loza]

Oh, my gosh. I can imagine our honeymoon now. Just all the deep dish pizza. Heart shaped, obviously.

[Sal Lido]

Yeah. Can we go somewhere other than in Chicago?

[Liz Loza]

Yeah.

[Sal Lido]

Somewhere else.

[Liz Loza]

Yeah.

[Sal Lido]

Tulum.

[Liz Loza]

We're going to go to Tulum.

[Sal Lido]

Sign it up. Let's go. I have a companion pass for Delva. Let's go.

[Liz Loza]

I'm flying on a companion pass. I don't know. Anyway, Trevor Lawrence versus Denver. Last one. Smash or pass?

[Sal Lido]

You know, I'm going to say pass and I know it's hard to come off of a guy who just had an epically amazing game, but I expect this game to be a grinded out football game. So I have a league where I have a stack of Bo Knicks and Cortland Sutton and I'm going to start the Jacoby Brissette Michael Wilson stack over them in my semifinal because I think this is going to be a bit of a slogged down game because both teams are going to be playing tight defense and playing really well. So. So it's a pass for me.

[Liz Loza]

I'm a little bit more optimistic about Bo Nicks as our listeners have already heard. But I am with you on T Law getting the sit in week 16, especially given the matchup. All right, Sal, thank you so much for joining us. Thank you for also calling deep dish pizza delectable. You are now my favorite person and apparently we're getting married. So, you know, new year, new things, I guess.

[Sal Lido]

Can't wait for 2026. I didn't expect it to go in that direction, but I'm open to anything at this point.

[Liz Loza]

All right, Sail, can you tell our listeners where they can find you and your work, please?

[Sal Lido]

Yeah, absolutely. You mentioned the fantasy football historian at the top and I and I booted that off this year and I'm going to bring it back in the off season. It was kind of like a trial run to Seattle. Got received. Great reception of that. So on all platforms, it's the F f historian you can find anywhere. I'm Sal Leto. F F S A L L E T O F F on old all platforms. Well, maybe on Instagram there's three Fs. Don't ask why somebody had it. I don't know. And of course, fantasy cares. All fantasy cares. Scott Fishbowl. All things that is kind of the connection between Liz and I. I mean, we've known each other about 10 or 11 years in the fantasy space, but we've come together with you being involved with fantasy cares and myself being involved with fantasy cares. It's the, the my most favorite thing that I do in a fantasy football community industry, however you want to say it and probably outside of being a dad, the thing I'm most proud of, being a part of that team. Scott, Bob, all the, all the wonderful ladies and gentlemen involved in in there. So follow fantasy cares. Do something charitable through fantasy football. Donate. Do something that makes a difference in yours and other people's lives.

[Liz Loza]

I love the message. Thank you so much, Sal. Have a very happy holiday and I'll talk to you soon.

[Sal Lido]

All the same to you. Last call.

[Liz Loza]

Today we learned that it's fun to be a little bit more than just a little bit confident heading into week 16. That even new Yorkers can appreciate the delectability of a deep dish pizza and that satisfaction is sometimes more important than winning. Remember, we don't get to decide how something ends. We do, however, get to bask in the glory of the story. I hope when you walk away from this season, it's on your own terms. Big thanks to Sal Lido for calling in and playing along and as always, to producer Presley for keeping me honest. Be sure to check out my Week 16. Oh, my gosh. Week 16 edition of the Fact that vs. Feelings column, which is currently live on the dot com. And remember, you can leave us a voicemail. Dave wants more life advice. The number to call is 914-348-1893. Until next time, may your facts be solid, your feelings be right and your bus be someone else's problem.

[Producer Presley]

Three, two. I can't remember what I said. Well, there's a little bit and more. Well, what did I say? A little bit and a little bit. Okay, so a little bit more than a little bit calm. All right, so there's a little bit more than a little bit of confidence. So there's a little bit more than a little bit of confidence for Bo Nix heading into week 16, but there's going to be a lot less confidence for this next player. We've got Liz. And that is a running back who is averaging only 7.2. That's right. 7.2 fantasy points per game over the last five weeks.