Fantasy Focus Football: "Facts vs Feelings: Make These Week 16 Calls and Win 🏆"

Date: December 18, 2025
Hosts: Liz Loza, Producer Presley, Sal Lido (guest)

Episode Overview

This episode of the “Fantasy Focus Football: Facts vs Feelings” spotlights key decisions for Week 16 of the fantasy football season—the semifinal round for most leagues. Liz Loza helms the episode with Producer Presley’s input, welcoming fantasy historian Sal Lido for expert insight. Together, they blend hard data (“facts”) with the emotional rollercoaster of lineup management (“feelings”), helping listeners make confident playoff choices. The episode features sharp start/sit debates, listener voicemails, memorable fantasy heartbreaks and triumphs, and actionable tips rooted in both statistics and fantasy football history.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Bo Nix: Confident Start or Trap?

• [02:43–04:13] Liz reviews Bo Nix’s fantasy outlook following a 29-point week.
  • Recent Production: Top-10 in pass attempts, yards, and touchdowns; averaging 18+ FPPG.
  • Home/Road Splits: At home (Denver), Nix averages 20.5 FPPG and 14 TDs versus just 16.5 FPPG on the road.
  • Week 16 Outlook: Facing Jacksonville (who’ve inflated QB stats, but mostly against rookies). Ranked as QB15 for the week; Liz would start Purdy over Nix, but "possibly over Dak Prescott or Matt Stafford."
  • Quote:

    "A little bit more than a little bit, baby."
    —Liz Loza on her confidence in Bo Nix [04:17]

Quinshon Judkins: Rebound Potential?

• [04:19–06:09]
  • Recent Struggles: Only 7.2 FPPG over last 5 weeks; hindered by stacked defenses and a lackluster Cleveland offense.
  • Optimism for Week 16:
    • Bills allow 3rd-most 20+ yard runs and 5th-most fantasy points to RBs.
    • Judkins averages 17 carries/game, with increased pass-game usage due to teammate injuries (Dylan Sampson banged up).
    • Projection:

      "I am optimistic because I expect that the Browns will try to play keep away from Josh Allen early. They will lean on Judkins...he’ll likely rip off a couple of long runs, which should give fantasy managers enough points to get Judkins to a top 15 positional fantasy finish."
      —Liz Loza [05:48]

Tyler Warren: Trust with a New QB?

• [06:39–08:42]
  • Volume Stays Consistent: Averages 6 targets/game, even with Philip Rivers at QB.
  • Rivers Loves TEs: Historically top-10 in TE target rate.
  • Seahawks to 49ers Shift: While Rivers struggled under Seattle’s heavy pressure, San Francisco brings less pressure, opening Warren up for a bounce-back.
  • Fantasy Range:

    "I do think there’s an opportunity between the volume and the matchup ... for Warren to produce at least top 10. I have him ranked higher, inside my top 8 fantasy numbers at the tight end position in week 16."
    —Liz Loza [08:34]

Listener Therapy: Cash Outs, Crash Outs & Voicemail Advice

On Mike Evans: The Bold Start Dilemma

• [11:51–13:29]
  • Listener Alex recounts last-minute panic over whether to start Mike Evans or Michael Pittman. Calls Liz for advice—she champions boldness.
  • Quote:

    "I can’t go on facts vs feelings ... and tell people to be bold and then advise you to sit Mike Evans in a game that had critical postseason implications."
    —Liz Loza [12:43]

  • Result: Evans delivers; boldness rewarded.

ETN vs. Judkins vs. Hampton

• [14:18–16:02]
  • Listener asks: With Travis Etienne facing Denver, should they start him, Judkins or Amarian Hampton?
  • Analysis:
    • Etienne had a big Week 15, but production was fluky (two long catches).
    • With Tutin injured, Etienne’s role is safer, but Judkins is Liz’s top choice this week, followed by ETN, then Hampton.
  • Memorable Line:

    "Every good millennial knows you don't go chasing waterfalls or TDs."
    —Liz Loza, on relying on unpredictable touchdowns [15:57]

Playoff Heartbreak: The Mike Evans Sit

• [16:08–17:23]
  • Michelle from NJ recounts losing by 3 points after sitting Evans last minute; her opponent didn’t even set a lineup.
  • Liz offers empathy and commiseration, highlighting league rule adjustment ideas to avoid “ghost lineup” upsets.

Cash Out: Soldier Field, Kyle Pitts & Bears Win

• [17:45–18:59]
  • “Top” calls in from Soldier Field (possibly inebriated), thrilled about a last-second win thanks to Kyle Pitts.
  • Liz provides comedic relief by riffing in a Chicago accent and celebrates the rare “Pitts-led playoff victory”.

Interview with Sal Lido: History, Strategy, and Hot Takes

Week 16 Trends & Mindset

• [19:41–21:06]
  • Teams push hard for NFL playoff clinches—star players in playoff-race teams are safe starts in semifinals but watch for rest-risk in Week 17.
  • Advice:

    "Set your best lineup, but prepare for what you're going to find on week 17."
    —Sal Lido [20:56]

Start Your Stars... or Matchups?

• [21:06–22:27]
  • Don’t default to “studs only” or “matchups only”—consider both, and scout your opponent's matchups.
  • High-ceiling plays are key if your opponent has volatile or high-upside rosters.
  • Underdog callouts:
    • Michael Carter (Arizona) & all players in the Arizona-Atlanta matchup
    • Luther Burden, Jawar Jordan (Waiver claims worth making)

Confident Sit and Start

• [22:38–24:14]
  • Sit: Aston Genti (Las Vegas Raiders RB)

    "I predict that the Raiders may be only the fourth team ... to be shut out in back-to-back weeks ... I am not playing Aston Genti anywhere."
    —Sal Lido [22:41]

  • Start: Woody Marks (opponent’s side in the same game)—if he’s out, Jawar Jordan is a strong pivot for volume.

    "If Woody Marks is a late scratch ... start Jawar Jordan ... I'm just expecting pure volume."
    —Sal Lido [24:10]

Sal’s Hot Take

• [24:14–24:31]
  • Gardner Minshew (Kansas City) will be a top 10 QB in Week 16 due to a great matchup and game script.

    "Gardner Minshew will be a top 10 quarterback in Week 16."
    —Sal Lido [24:17]

Fantasy Lore: Championship Surprises

• [24:31–26:30]
  • Jerome Harrison (2009) & Tim Hightower (2015) as historical examples of “league-winning” playoff surprises.
  • Deep Week 16 sleeper: Jacory Kroas-Merritt—look for unexpected RBs on teams with great matchups vs. soft run defenses.

"Smash or Pass": Lightning Round Start/Sit Games

• [28:47–31:13]
  • Justin Jefferson vs. Giants: Pass (concerns with Minnesota offense)
  • Devon Achane vs. Cincinnati: Smash (upside regardless of QB)
  • Deep Dish Pizza: Smash ("delectable, delightful" —Sal Lido [30:14])
  • Trevor Lawrence vs. Denver: Pass (expecting a slog, prefers to pivot off Jags/Broncos stacks)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Bold Fantasy Decisions:

  "I can't go on facts vs feelings ... and tell people to be bold and then advise you to sit Mike Evans."
  – Liz Loza [12:43]

• On Regret and Community:

  "Michelle, sweet baby friend Michelle. Oh my gosh. I like want to hang out with you and console you, girl. Can we get Prosecco and eat cookies and snuggle on the couch together?"
  – Liz Loza, supporting a heartbroken listener [16:19]

• On Historical Surprises:

  "Somebody will win championships that you never expected."
  – Sal Lido [25:56]

• On the True Meaning:

  "Satisfaction is sometimes more important than winning. Remember, we don't get to decide how something ends. We do, however, get to bask in the glory of the story."
  – Liz Loza [33:11]

Important Timestamps & Segments

• [02:43] — Bo Nix Week 16 outlook
• [04:19] — Quinshon Judkins bounce-back case
• [06:39] — Tyler Warren's viability despite QB concerns
• [11:51] — Voicemail: Mike Evans playoff panic
• [14:18] — Start/Sit breakdown: ETN vs. Judkins vs. Hampton
• [16:08] — Listener heartbreak: Evans sit, playoff loss
• [17:45] — Listener victory: Kyle Pitts & Soldier Field story
• [18:59] — Guest Sal Lido joins; fantasy history and Week 16 trends
• [22:38] — Most confident sit of the week (Aston Genti)
• [24:14] — Favorite start: Woody Marks/Jawar Jordan
• [24:17] — Hot take: Gardner Minshew as top-10 QB
• [28:47] — Smash or Pass segment (Justin Jefferson, Achane, T. Law)

Final Thoughts & Advice

• Week 16 is for maximizing satisfaction with your fantasy process, not just chasing victory.
• Lean into high-volume RB matchups and don’t blindly start your studs—adapt to context, matchups, and playoff incentives.
• Remember, fantasy heartbreak (down to the last lineup swap) is part of the journey. Seek community, celebrate bold moves, and play with no regrets.
• Consider team motivations and playoff statuses—Week 17 could bring player rest, so plan ahead.

For more advice:
Check out Liz Loza’s “Fact vs Feelings” column and call in with questions and stories: 914-348-1893.

Tone throughout: Upbeat, supportive, empathetic, with a dash of humor and nostalgia—the perfect recipe for playoff week advice.