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GUT CHECK: Fantasy Players You Should TRUST in Week 5 | Fantasy Focus
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GUT CHECK: Fantasy Players You Should TRUST in Week 5
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- [00:00]
A
Quick break. Let's talk defense. Football's on your screen, but peace of mind starts at home. Blink outdoor. Four security cameras offers up to a two year battery life and sync module xr so you can cover more space without constant maintenance. No wires, no fumbles, just easy coverage that works in the background. You've got your team on the field now. Get your defense at home. Get Blink today at the Home Depot. How doers get. Get more done. What's good, friends? Welcome into Fantasy Focus Football presented by Little Caesars here alongside field Jason, Mike Clay. The boys are back in town here for a fun Wednesday show. It's a great song, right? Yes, it is one.
- [00:53]
B
Yeah.
- [00:54]
A
Mike, we haven't seen you all week. Feels and I've been hanging out because we care about our jobs and the people at home. So how is it for you?
- [01:00]
C
Well, I mean, it's better now because when I left last week on Friday, there was no pizza. And now I come here and there's pizza pizza, which I mean is a good thing in general, but also like it makes me want Little Caesar's pizza. So we actually get some pizza in the studio. Yeah, make this way better because I'm just going to be hungry instead of looking at you and your handsome face. I see that Little Caesar guy.
- [01:20]
A
Oh, okay. So now I know you're not making eye contact with me.
- [01:24]
C
Yeah.
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B
Why are you looking into my eyes?
- [01:27]
C
Yeah, it's the pizza. It's not you.
- [01:28]
A
It's thirsty.
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B
Just not for Daniel.
- [01:30]
C
Yeah, you get it.
- [01:31]
B
She's not here today, but just want to say a big congratulations to the legendary Stefania.
- [01:37]
C
ESPN all of a few moments ago.
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B
Was reassigned to a very well deserved contract pump for Stefania. As you guys know, she's a lovely human and really sets the bar. She is the person who created this industry of sports analysis, injury analysis within the context of fantasy football. So incredibly well deserved for Stefania, who hopefully Stefania. You're not listening to this because you're like drinking champagne in like a foreign country to celebrate the new deal. But if you are listening to this, we all love you. Congratulations.
- [02:04]
C
Absolutely. The only surprise was I just assumed she had a lifetime contract.
- [02:08]
B
Right.
- [02:09]
A
That's the point right here, Mike.
- [02:11]
C
Yes, yes.
- [02:11]
A
We got a big show planned for you guys today. We're going to do a little gut check, name game. We also are going to do a little bit of stock up, stock down. I want to kind of figure out where you guys are at on a handful of players and then we got to pay off some board bets. And our start of the week.
- [02:26]
B
Daniel. I heard we're having tech issues. Maybe not.
- [02:28]
C
I like all the things I'm hearing right now. I can't wait for all of this.
- [02:31]
A
We got a lot. We got a lot untapped.
- [02:33]
B
Maybe not.
- [02:33]
A
First and foremost, though, let's welcome. Excuse me. Let's talk about our friends over at Trophy Smack. Head on over to trophy smack dot com. Use the promo code focus.10 for 10% off your order. Get a belt, get a trophy, get a chain, get a ring, get a toilet seat, get any of the things that you want for your fantasy league. It's going to be a ton of fun being able to make sure that your league has something to take home at the end of the season.
- [02:53]
C
Trophies and pizza. I mean, can we.
- [02:55]
A
Doesn't get any better than that.
- [02:56]
C
No, it really can't.
- [02:57]
A
All right, well, let's dive into our first thing and before we do this little gut check, name game, I figured we should start with the idea that we've got a quarterback change right now. Joe Flacco. Flacco.
- [03:07]
B
Flacco. To be fair, Flaco, actually, when he's.
- [03:09]
A
Getting bench, it's just Flacco, Joe Flacco, unfortunately being benched. Dylan Gabriel going to get the start against the Vikings. How does it feel?
- [03:16]
C
He said unfortunately, I don't know. Do we feel like it's unfortunate it can't be much worse?
- [03:20]
A
That's a great question, Ken. Do you think it gets better with a rookie quarterback rather than with Joe under center?
- [03:25]
B
Well, I don't think it can get worse. Yeah, to Mike's point here. So let's just look at the numbers because I think this really. People are probably asking if you have Jerry Judy. By the way, Cedric Tillman was placed on IR yesterday, so he's no longer a factor, at least for four weeks. But if you have Jerry Judy, you're looking for some optimism. Can there be any for Jerry Judy? I don't know. He is fifth in routes so far this season. That's good. We like that number.
- [03:48]
A
Big number.
- [03:49]
B
Unfortunately, he's 61st in fantasy points per game, which is 7.8 points per per game. Got a 20% target share. So there's kind of two factors that have been working against the Browns top receivers so far this year. One is the offense has been unbelievably poor. The second thing is that last year a lot of the targets were saturated towards Jerry Judy and David and Joku, Both of those guys have taken a hit. I'm not here to tell you that Dylan Gabriel solves all of the issues for the Cleveland Browns. But maybe this kind of reminds me of where we were at with Carson Wentz and J.J. mcCarthy. Like, it can't get a whole lot worse for Justin Jefferson. Maybe it can get a little bit better. One game in. It was, I guess, two games in with Carson Wentz, but, you know, this last game was good for Justin Jefferson. Maybe there's a little bit of a chance that Jerry Judy can bump back into, like, borderline top 35 wide receiver territory.
- [04:37]
C
Yeah. It's going to be interesting because looking at Gabriel at the collegiate level and you could speak a little bit more on this, but very conservative. But highly efficient on. In that. Within that conservative game. Right. Average at the throw, very low. But his completion percentage was terrific. His efficiency numbers were outstanding. So good runner he could bring.
- [04:55]
B
Yeah.
- [04:55]
C
Adds a little bit with his legs as well. So that's something obviously Joe Flacco didn't do that Gabriel can do. So a little more scrambling, maybe takes away a couple targets for the pass sketchers, but maybe he completes more passes. I will say this. The schedule so far, if you look at the opponents, you think that's. That's pretty tough. But if you look at actually how those defenses have played statistically, the Browns have had the easiest fantasy schedule so far. Are you serious? Still, they have six total touchdowns in four games offensively, so it's been rough. And again, that's why I kind of say it can't be much worse than it's been. They're already terrible in terms of producing offensive yardage and touchdowns. So I'm much needed. Much needed change.
- [05:35]
B
Yeah. I feel like our. Our optimism is sensed in all of our voices. There isn't a whole lot of it. The best case you can make is just that it can't get worse.
- [05:43]
A
There's one guy on the Cleveland Browns I feel very comfortable starting, and it's just one. And it's Quinch on Judkins right now.
- [05:49]
B
And Judkins, you make the case that, like, he's been able to accomplish what he has in three games in spite of the surroundings. Right. You would think that when you can't throw the ball at all, teams would just bottle up a running back. They've been unsuccessful in their efforts to bottle up Quin Sean Judkins. So the youth movement is officially on for the Cleveland Browns.
- [06:07]
C
Yeah, we were a little surprised that he just was away from the team for so long and then immediately took on a massive role. We're seeing why? Because he's just on another level with other players. And by the way, I talked about the schedule. You're right. They played Minnesota this week Sunday morning. So that's going to be very hard. And again is a reason to avoid pretty much this entire team. You know, maybe like in Joku and Judy are borderline starters, but aside. Yeah, a lot of Harold Fanning too, and falling off. Cedric Tillman's out. DeAndre Carter's out. I mean, you're going to see perhaps more in Joko and Fannin involved in the passing game, but there's just not a lot to like here. Isaiah Bond, you know, could get some more work, could be a deep dynasty, breakout player. So it's a rough go, right?
- [06:49]
B
Yeah. I mean, look I'm looking at in joku right now. 14% target share, 6.7 fantasy points per game. That's 26th at the position.
- [06:56]
C
Wow, look at this. Look at in Joku. I thought I was a numbers guy.
- [07:01]
B
You know, Mike taught me some stuff recently. I've been working on pivots and tables and such, so. Don't you worry about it. Michael. I talked to.
- [07:08]
C
Oh, intimidated.
- [07:08]
B
I talked to your friends over at the nerd lab.
- [07:12]
C
Nerd lab.
- [07:13]
A
That's what it is.
- [07:14]
C
Yeah. That's where I got all my stuff. Yeah.
- [07:16]
A
Yeah. Not great for David and Joku, unfortunately. But hey, hopefully maybe Dylan Gabriel just breathes a little bit of life into this offense. That's all we're hoping.
- [07:22]
C
What do we want from these guys? Like, we don't expect Dylan Gabriel to be a fantasy starter. Just get the ball in the hands of the pass playmakers.
- [07:30]
B
That would be nice. Yeah.
- [07:31]
C
Be conservative if you need to put the ball in their hands. That's all we're asking. Yep.
- [07:35]
A
I'm with you on that. All right, let's talk about a little bit of gut check time, my friends. We each brought a handful of players.
- [07:42]
B
To the table that are moving.
- [07:44]
A
We're going to talk about how we feel about them moving forward because there may have been some struggles so far to start the season. We may choose to do a little name game here or there. But feel. Gates, I'm going to start with you.
- [07:54]
B
Yeah, I was. I understood the assignment as this, which was players who are moving up or down in the ranks for this week.
- [08:01]
C
Yeah, me too. That's why I attacked. That's fair.
- [08:03]
B
So that is the conceit that I was working with. So this my. My three players, it's a mix of up or down. I think that's the same for each of you guys. This guy has been awesome so far this season and yet he still might be trending up this week. And that's Garrett Wilson, wide receiver, who by the way, Garrett Wilson threw four games, is second in the NFL in catches. He's third in the NFL in targets. He's fifth in fantasy points per game amongst wide receivers. So you're probably saying to yourself, like, what's the analysis? The analysis is he plays the Dallas Cowboys.
- [08:33]
C
Who?
- [08:34]
B
Anybody who watched the Dallas Cowboys so far this season knows they are the gift that keeps on giving specifically to wide receivers. We are now four games into the season for every NFL team bye week start this week. So before the buys begin, the Dallas Cowboys have allowed 29 more fantasy points to opposing wide receivers than any other team in the NFL. 196 fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers. The Cowboys through four games, that is 49 wide receiver points per game to opposing teams for the Dallas Cowboys each and every week. Jordan Love was the chalkiest top five quarterback play in the history of humankind last weekend. So Garrett Wilson is inside my top five wide receivers this week, which, not that he wouldn't be maybe top 10 or 12 in most weeks, but as we know with Garrett Wilson, the concern is what we saw in the first half from the jets this past week, which is that it's just a low functioning passing offense and sometimes Justin Fields will have an off day. Thankfully they got behind. The jets have played like not that inspiring of defense so far this season, which has been surprising to me. Thankfully, falling behind this past Monday got the passing attack going and Wilson had that brilliant touchdown catch in the second half of that game. This game against the Cowboys. The Cowboys are good enough to move the football on anybody. This screams shootout. Give me Garrett Wilson as a top five wide receiver.
- [09:49]
C
You said what is it? 49 fantasy points per game. They're allowed to receivers. Yeah. When. And only one jets receiver even scores fantasy points. So I think what you're saying is Garrett Wilson is going to score 49 fantasy points this week. Yes, there actually was a. I mean he might.
- [10:02]
A
I was legit. Just going to ask you, like what is Garrett Wilson's target share right now in this jets offense?
- [10:06]
C
He's probably like 30. I believe it's 35.
- [10:09]
A
35% is astronomical. And now he gets to take on the Dallas Cowboys, who by the way, you mentioned how bad they've been. Field. The Dallas Cowboys gave up 37.7 points to Malik Neighbors, 29.8 to Romeo Dobbs, 28.2 to Wandell Robinson, 19.8 to Luther Burden, 15 points to Roma Dunes A. They've had a bunch of really big games against him at the wide receiver spot. And to your point, Mike, if there's a wide receiver that's going to go off in this jets offense, there's just one guy that we're even talking about.
- [10:35]
C
Yeah, absolutely.
- [10:36]
A
It is going to be Garrett Wilson. So I love that call field. I think he is going to be to the moon here in Week 5 against his Cowboys team.
- [10:42]
B
I just, you know, now that I have this fancy new tool that I get to work with and I can.
- [10:47]
A
Oh, look, it's color coded.
- [10:48]
C
Even he's still learning how to work these numbers. So what do you look at?
- [10:51]
B
His Target share is 36.5%. In the interest of accuracy, which Mike, of course doesn't actually care about.
- [10:56]
A
That's fair.
- [10:57]
B
That's second best in the NFL. Trailing only. I think maybe I'll. Let me.
- [11:01]
C
Unless JSN fell off. He was near 40%. Maybe Nakua is up there.
- [11:06]
B
Yeah, it might be.
- [11:07]
C
Those three guys are up. Up top.
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B
It's JSN is third.
- [11:10]
C
Okay, so it must be Nukua, right?
- [11:12]
B
Yes, number one, 37.6%. Again, big numbers guy here on the show. I will stop using it as much starting right now.
- [11:18]
C
That's okay.
- [11:19]
A
Mike, you're up next.
- [11:20]
C
I like it. I'm here for it. Are we doing this name game too or are we just.
- [11:23]
A
If you want to do a name game, you get to decide when you want to bring your name table out of the three.
- [11:26]
C
All right, no problem. All right. I brought some name games for mine, but my guy is. This one's like way off from what you were just talking about because. Completely different hemisphere. Justin Fields, the quarterback for Gar Wilson. No, it's the same hemisphere, the same exact page. It's the same exact thing. Look, that I don't. I won't have to go too into the matchup. We just talked about how good, you know, or how bad the Cowboys have been against the past. The same things that apply to receivers essentially apply to quarterbacks, although they have also given up a lot of rushing to quarterbacks on top of all the passing yards. So obviously that works Perfect for field two. Two full games so far this season. 29 and a half fantasy points against the Steelers in week one and then last week against Miami, unsurprisingly, crushed them. 27.1 fantasy points. Massive rushing totals in both of those games so far. But also 200 plus passing yards and a passing touchdown in both of those games. So I have Fields number two in my rankings after removing Lamar Jackson, who we'll see. But it doesn't look like he's going to play. But I am extremely high on Fields. He should put up massive numbers this week. So that being said, and you could comment on that if you want, but if you're making a decision this week and you may be, there's probably some people that have this situation.
- [12:34]
B
Okay.
- [12:35]
C
Tell a lot of people, is it Justin Fields or Jaden Daniels? He fits but I went Jalen Hurts facing Denver at home this week. So who do you pick?
- [12:45]
B
Man, Jalen Hurts feels almost impenetrable as a quarterback. Like even last week when he had zero completions in the second half, he had 18.5 fantasy points.
- [12:57]
A
I listen, I was going to say we talked about this with Amon Ross St. Brown the other day. You know how every week we say like someone's going to get something in that Lions offense but every week's an Amon Ra week. Yeah, that's the Eagles with Jalen Hurts.
- [13:07]
B
Yeah.
- [13:07]
A
Like sometimes it's going to be A.J. brown, sometimes it'll be Dallas Goddard. It's most of the time Saquon Barkley, but it is always Jalen Hurts. It feels like to me just because.
- [13:14]
B
That rush for Justin Fields right there, it's so close. My, my actual answer would be like can I parlay Justin Fields? And just something else.
- [13:22]
C
Yeah, maybe. I mean Hertz is facing Denver. That's a really good defense. And then you're going to sit there and watch maybe that be a somewhat low scoring game and then watch Fields just lighting up Dallas.
- [13:31]
B
Get it going this week.
- [13:32]
C
You think it's again good. He'll, I mean he'll be fine. He's going to get it.
- [13:37]
A
I'm not going to. I was going to bring him to the table. I think he's worth a conversation. He's running back 12 right now. We haven't really talked about how he's running back 12.
- [13:44]
C
Tough defense. I don't know if this is the breakout game for the Eagles offense.
- [13:47]
B
You were telling me last week Chase Brown had an opportunity to break out against the Broncos.
- [13:50]
C
Oh, you're right. They did have a couple bad weeks.
- [13:51]
B
So the run defenses, that's why I'm wondering.
- [13:53]
C
They. Yeah, they've. And they did okay against Brown. Now they're sort of mid pack but they, you're right. They had a couple back to back games.
- [13:59]
B
Right? That's. That's right. That's Why I wasn't. I'm not trying to like poke the bear like I got it right. No one else did. But the power running game maybe is the factor that yeah, there could be.
- [14:07]
C
They're more vulnerable. Also the Bengals offense is terrible. So.
- [14:10]
A
Hey, you know what, speaking of the Bengals offense, how about I just give you a name here that I want to talk about?
- [14:14]
B
Okay, go for it.
- [14:15]
C
Yeah.
- [14:15]
B
All right.
- [14:15]
A
Chase Brown, running back 31.
- [14:18]
C
I've heard of him.
- [14:18]
A
For me, right now, averaging 9.4 fantasy points per game. He's touching the ball an okay amount. Not a bunch, but an okay amount. But he's last in points per touch. Just unbelievable inefficiency. Averaging 2.3 yards per carry. Only 14 targets this season on Fansville.
- [14:38]
B
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- [15:15]
A
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- [16:56]
B
Wasn't it Drew Sample?
- [16:57]
A
Drew Sample is the only guy to score a touchdown over the last two weeks for this team.
- [17:01]
C
So before we do the name game, can I make an observation?
- [17:03]
A
Please make as many as you.
- [17:04]
C
So yesterday for the first time on Social, I put strength to schedule so far and then going forward for each fantasy position, it's still a pretty small sample. It's only been four weeks, but it's enough that we can actually look at it. The Bengals have had a brutal schedule on top of everything else so far. It is extremely easy going forward. They've already. Chase Brown's had to deal with the Browns, the Jags, the Vikings and the Broncos. The last two weeks without Burrow were the. The Broncos and the Vikings. I mean, that is as tough as it gets to some extent. So I will. I just want to.
- [17:36]
B
After the Lions. Yes.
- [17:38]
C
Yeah, it's a pretty good. The Lions have a lot of touchdown to the opposing lead back in all four games, though. So there is that, you know, but they're overall a fine defense. But I just want to point that out because there is some hope here that they could at least be competent, which they have not been the last couple of weeks.
- [17:51]
B
So go ahead.
- [17:52]
A
You must have not watched any of those Bengals games then for you to say there's hope for competence in this offense.
- [17:56]
C
Well, yeah, there is when they play normal defenses. Oh, okay.
- [18:00]
A
All right.
- [18:00]
C
And it's going to be, again, one of the easiest fantasy schedules going forward based on what we've seen through four weeks.
- [18:06]
B
I'll allow it.
- [18:07]
A
All right. So they're taking on the Lions this week. I want to ask you guys, would you rather play Trey Benson?
- [18:12]
C
Benson.
- [18:13]
B
Benson. For sure.
- [18:14]
C
I like him. This or Chase, assuming he keeping an eye on the injury.
- [18:17]
B
Yeah, let's. Let's note that Trey Benson and Apologies for not catching this in live action. When you play a Thursday game, sometimes you get a bonus Monday practice.
- [18:25]
C
Yes.
- [18:26]
B
Now, teams are often very careful with that Monday practice. You're already going to give three more practices later on the week to a player. So Trey Benson didn't practice on Monday. There was no injury report associated with it. So maybe it's simply rest, but we'll at least monitor it after he missed, I think, the final drive of last week's game as well.
- [18:44]
C
Yeah. And he was, you know, again, tough matchup. We talked about it last week against Seattle. He gets Tennessee this week. So very appealing matchup. Good matchup. Could be a breakout game for Trey Benson if he's able to go. All right.
- [18:54]
A
What about Chuba Hubbard taking on the Dolphins? Chuba Hubbard or Chase Brown?
- [18:58]
B
Chuba. Hard. Yeah.
- [18:59]
C
Against Miami. Yeah.
- [19:00]
A
What about J.K. dobbins or Chase Brown?
- [19:02]
C
Would you rather JK?
- [19:03]
B
Tough matchup for JK against the Eagles. Only one catch this past week for JK. It's close, though.
- [19:09]
C
I have Brown. Brown a little bit.
- [19:13]
A
Okay. What about Woody Marks? Would you rather play Woody Marks or Chase Brown?
- [19:17]
C
I still have Brown ahead, although Marks gets this Baltimore defense, which I feel so terrible for them. Everyone is hurt. I mean, you know how that feels. The Lions last year.
- [19:28]
B
I think my gut tells me the answer is Woody Marks. There's a little bit of me that is just a touch nervous, a touch that Woody Marks. This is a little bit of. I'll never forget asking the question, and I fear that I'm responsible for the struggle so far. When I asked the question at some point during the preseason, when Travion Henderson was just skyrocketing. Are we sure we're not going too far with Trayvon and with Woody Marks? One game, he played 57% of the snaps. What if this week they actually control the ball pretty well against Baltimore and that banged up defense and no, Lamar and Nick Chubb ends up having 18 carries and marks gets 11 carries and two catches or something.
- [20:06]
C
Yeah, it's very impossible. Marks Marks has been trending up, so it's not surprising to see him make a leap in a very good matchup last week. But now he's probably going to level off a little bit. Nick Chubb still played a lot in that game, so I agree he's not going away completely. And that's why Mark's kind of ranked as a flex here, not a RB2.
- [20:22]
A
All right, I got two more for you. How about the same game? Would you rather play David Montgomery against the Bengals or Chase Brown against the Lions?
- [20:28]
B
David Montgomery.
- [20:29]
C
Yeah, I have Montgomery very. I actually have the them very close. So this is a toss up for me. But you're good. I can tell Montgomery with a good matchup.
- [20:39]
A
Matchup. Last one, Tony Pollard. I mean, are you at the spot where you would start Tony Pollard on this tight.
- [20:45]
C
Listen, he hasn't been very good so far. And also keep, keep an eye on Taj Spears, who could return this week. He might be limited in his first game back, but they've been leaning heavily on Pollard. That's going to change at some point. And he hasn't been productive in fantasy, even with this like 90% of the carry.
- [21:00]
B
So you use heavily. It's a very subjective term. Can you put a number to how heavily they've been leaning?
- [21:06]
C
90% of the snaps and. Or 90% of the carries. 8% of the targets.
- [21:11]
A
Is that right?
- [21:11]
B
8% of the targets. Yes. 88.7% of the overall snaps.
- [21:15]
A
Yeah. Come on, Mike.
- [21:15]
B
Way off again. Get your act together. That's actually the highest percentage of snaps any running back in the NFL.
- [21:21]
C
I'm not great at trivia, even sports trivia sometimes. But like, this is where I, I could get you. Yeah. I could get close to like carry shares, target shares for like tight ends, like backup tight ends, like everyone. Just because I look at that every week.
- [21:33]
A
I did trivia with Mike one time and we were finishing our trivia on an NFL question that we're pretty sure the sports bar got wrong because I felt like you were adamant that you were like, that question is not. Do you remember we went to the sports.
- [21:44]
C
Yeah, I don't remember what it was, but I remember it being. You were.
- [21:47]
A
You were like, this is not right. That's not the right answer.
- [21:49]
C
Yeah, I remember that. That was in. In Cheshire, I think.
- [21:52]
A
But yes, it was a good time anyways. I loved.
- [21:54]
C
Yeah, I can't remember what that question was, but you're right. They. We had to like, talk to them. We were. We were them people.
- [21:58]
A
We were like. No, no, no, no. Trust me, we know. I hate to say this, but. Yeah, well, Chase Brown, I just want to say this. He has been a guy that we have been waiting to see if something can happen here. I've got him at running back 27. That's the lowest I've ever had on field. You're at 22, Mike, you're at 21. The idea that Chase Brown, when by weeks start. There's no Bajan Robinson, there's no Josh Jacobs. There's no DeAndre Swift. And we still have Chase Brown outside the top 20. It just lets you know how bad it is. Hopefully something turns around, but the Bengals just need to trade for a quarterback.
- [22:28]
C
Yeah, this is going to be in the playbook today, but they're tomorrow. But there's reason for optimism here. He's still playing 74% of the snapshot last week. Even in again, very bad situation, he's still 71 yards. He averaged 4 yards per carry. I mean, it's a point in the right direction. So if the schedule does free up a little bit and he's still getting 15 to 17 touches a game, I think he can get back.
- [22:49]
B
I think it's this chair.
- [22:50]
A
Is that what it is?
- [22:51]
B
Something about this chair. Like Stefania has become a resident empath. Like Derek Henry fumbles for the third straight game and I'm like, damn it, I lost my matchup. I 1.5 points and I had Derek Henry and that final fumble Dimmy in and she's like, I just feel really bad for Derek Henry. Meanwhile, it's like, hey, Chase Brown had, you know, 4.2 fantasy points for the third straight week. This stinks. Mike's like, yeah, but it could get better.
- [23:10]
C
But I'm the voice of reason here. You guys fly to either direction. Too positive or too negative, I keep you, I keep everyone leveled. Oh, okay.
- [23:17]
A
So my fantasy takes are too hot, Field's fantasy takes are too cold. And your fantasy takes are just right.
- [23:22]
C
You got it. Ok. Ok. All right.
- [23:25]
A
All right. I understand now. All right, field, give us your next one.
- [23:28]
B
I was going to make a joke, but I'm going to refrain from doing so.
- [23:31]
A
Save it for when you got to one.
- [23:33]
B
Brown, A.J. brown.
- [23:34]
A
Arthur Wan. Arthur Wan.
- [23:36]
C
No drama there at all.
- [23:37]
B
Trending down. So we do know that. So this is pretty crazy to me is if you look at A.J. brown's targets over the past three games because week one he was a non factor.
- [23:46]
C
Mike can probably be a based on all the number based on the drama, it's probably like 3, 2 and 4, right? It must be. That's probably his target.
- [23:52]
B
He's actually seventh in the NFL over the past three weeks in targets, he has been very heavily nine or more in all three in the Eagles passing game. Nine plus targets in three straight games. The problem is not all targets are created equally. And if you look at the 40 players, excuse me, of the 39 players inside the top 40 in terms of targets this year, the reason why I say 39 versus 40 is there's like a Bunch of guys tied at number 40. It would have gotten the number to, like, 47. Instead, Brown's reception percentage is third worst. He's catching just 48.3% of his targets. So if you're getting a lot of them and you're not catching that many of them, it makes the target number a little bit less important. Whereas Puka Nukua is catching like, 84.5% of his targets. Every target he gets is basically money in the bank. A little trivia here before we talk a little bit more about Arthur Juan Brown. Can you guess the only two receivers inside the top 40 of targets who have a lower catch percentage than A.J. brown? Who's at 48.3?
- [24:50]
C
Calvin Ridley.
- [24:51]
B
Okay. No.
- [24:51]
C
Oh. Oh, no.
- [24:52]
A
48.3.
- [24:54]
B
Yeah. So it's two factors here. You got to be inside the top 40 and also have a low catch percentage.
- [24:58]
C
So Ridley must be outside the top 40.
- [25:00]
A
Tedro McMillan's at 50%.
- [25:02]
C
Yeah, that's a good one.
- [25:03]
A
He's at 36 and 18.
- [25:04]
B
His name has already been mentioned once as one of them on the show today.
- [25:09]
A
Jerry Judy.
- [25:10]
B
Yes.
- [25:10]
C
Oh, good one. Okay.
- [25:12]
A
I was like, what wide receiver did we talk about? What more.
- [25:14]
B
Just think about struggling guys who came into the season as top 20 picks.
- [25:18]
A
Struggling guys came into the season as a top 20 pick. He is a wide receiver that's not doing well.
- [25:25]
C
He's have enough. Enough targets.
- [25:27]
B
Brian Thomas Jr. Oh, obviously. Of course.
- [25:30]
A
The problem is I have blocked out all mention of Brian Thomas Jr. In my brain. I don't even want to think about it.
- [25:36]
C
I don't know.
- [25:37]
A
Yeah, that is tough right now. What do you.
- [25:41]
C
And also about matchup this week. Good.
- [25:45]
B
So the matchup this week is bad. So, yeah, Mike, I actually asked him to have something ready for this right now, which is they play the Broncos, who by themselves have allowed the seventh fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. If you watch the first drive of that game last week, you saw that the Bengals had a plan. Attack number 21 for Denver. That's not Pat certain II. He wears number two, and he's not.
- [26:04]
C
When we met, we predicted that on the show Rally Monster because you're the best.
- [26:08]
B
You were all over that.
- [26:09]
C
It was great. I was, yes.
- [26:13]
B
It was a tough go for T. But still, you were on that, Mike.
- [26:15]
C
Well, he did it for one drive. They feed. They went after him. It worked. They went right down the field, got a field goal, and then they didn't do it the rest of the game.
- [26:21]
B
So I gave Mike a little Bit of a tip. And I said, mike, any chance you can pull up some numbers about how players are performing against Pat Sartan? So far this season, he's played four games. The numbers tell us what the numbers tell us.
- [26:31]
C
It's just a blank sheet because there's like almost no production so far because no, more specifically shadow. Calvin Ridley in week one, he had 6.7 fantasy points. Michael Pittman in week two, he had 8 fantasy points. Week three shadowed Quentin Johnson full time, one of the best players in fantasy this season he had 14.9, which is probably his worst game of the season.
- [26:51]
A
Superstar, obviously.
- [26:52]
C
He's clearly a superstar. And then Jamar chase last week, 7.3. So on average that works out to a clean 9.2 fantasy points.
- [27:00]
A
Quinton Johnston, the one that has scored more points than the rest of those.
- [27:03]
C
Names, why is he the best receiver in the NFL? Honestly?
- [27:06]
A
Yeah, it's.
- [27:07]
C
He's been terrific. So. And by the way, he shadowed on basically every perimeter out aside of a side of a handful. I would say 97% of perimeter routes, including all 41 on Johnson. I mean, he had him. He was on him in that game. So it's been a struggle for number one. It's no surprise certain the best corner in the NFL, he will be glued to AJ Brown in this game. It's going to be. It's going to be tough. And it's not good timing because Brown's clearly a little upset. The chemistry with Hertz has been off. They need one of them big games like they had two weeks ago, and it's not going to happen. It's unlikely to happen.
- [27:36]
B
The saving grace. The saving grace and the part that has Me most confident, A.J. brown, believe it or not, is that on December 8th of last season, A.J. brown, in the locker room after a game, talked about how the Eagles offense needed to be better, they needed to pass the ball better the next two weeks. A.J. brown had nine catches. Yeah, about 100 yards per game in the next two weeks and a touchdown in each of those games. They definitely made the concerted effort that actually carried on into week 18. That was a game in which they yanked the starters early, but A.J. brown went 3 for 35 with a touchdown. So I don't think the Eagles are going to allow this to fester a whole lot longer. It wouldn't surprise me if one of the very first plays of the game, but the first play of the game is a target towards AJ Brown. That being said, this is a huge, huge challenge they are facing against Denver.
- [28:20]
A
I Feel like I need the Eagles. And it's not just the Eagles, but there's a lot of situations where it's like, I. Maybe there's going to be a bad analogy, but I want PHILLY to treat A.J. brown the way that James Harden plays basketball, where it's like sometimes it's like a three.
- [28:34]
B
Plays for the Los Angeles Clipper. He was on Thunder Rock. Yeah. Actually good pullback.
- [28:39]
A
But this is the thing, like he'll. He's either shooting a three, give AJ Brown that deep target or. Or he's taking a layup or.
- [28:46]
C
It's frustrating to me is like, especially when you have Jalen Hurts, who just like the dude just can just stay calm at all the time and just keeps doing what he has to do to get the team to win, whether it's handed off or scramble or throw to, you know, attack a secondary, whatever it might be. He's so good at that. AJ Brown, just his memory, it's like he forgot. Remember two weeks ago he had a massive game. Then he has one bad game and we're right back to the. Mike, he just forgot. All right. Remember after the super bowl, they won the super bowl and he. What did he say? He's like, I can't even enjoy this because he's just like on to the next thing.
- [29:14]
B
Wasn't it. It's our buddy Danny Carter who has that very funny tweet about like wide receivers on Twitter.
- [29:19]
C
Yeah, yeah. But A.J. brown is the first, like the epitome of that. I mean, it's. It's kind of frustrating because this team is so good.
- [29:27]
A
We don't care about that. We're for losers, Mike. We want stats. Stats are the ones that we want.
- [29:33]
C
I mean, that's what he wants. Yes, it's. It is frustrating because he is so good and he's such a big part of a Super bowl winning team and one of the best offenses in the NFL, but man.
- [29:41]
B
So AJ Brown is at almost wide receiver 20 for me this week.
- [29:45]
C
Who's next, Mike?
- [29:45]
B
Up or down?
- [29:47]
C
All right, next up for me, we're going to talk about Javante Williams. Oh, yeah. So Javante Williams, at least 19 fantasy points in three of four games, had 12.2 in the other. So he's been terrific so far. Top eight at running back in. Get ready. Rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, carries inside the five targets, catches, touches, yards, total touchdowns and fantasy points.
- [30:08]
B
That's a lot.
- [30:09]
C
Pretty good. Pretty good.
- [30:10]
A
Yeah.
- [30:11]
C
They're playing the jets this week mid pack against running backs. Despite the fact that they Face the most running back carry. So a little bit of a tougher matchup here for Williams. So I have him at 10 this week and the name game I'm going to put him up against is some guy you may have heard of. Derek Henry Williams or Derek Henry. No, Lamar Jackson we're assuming. But either way, even if he plays, he's playing against the Houston Texans this week. It's been a bit of a struggle. So he's starting Javante or Derek Henry.
- [30:42]
A
I was. I've got Javante at 10 and Derek Henry at 13. I think I would start.
- [30:46]
B
I'm starting to Williams as well.
- [30:48]
A
Yeah, it's.
- [30:49]
B
It's a middle of the pack matchup on paper for the Texans. I am just worried that with Cooper Rush starting. This is the proverbial thing that we talk about with the Ravens when Lamar is out there. Pick your poison this week. There is no poison to choose between. You just load up on Derek Henry and say if Cooper Rush is going to beat us, that's fine.
- [31:05]
C
Yeah, yeah, no doubt. And that's, I mean Henry's already been slowed to some extent. He had obviously was a big week one. He had another touchdown. He was also three touchdowns so far, two of them in one game. We did see three targets last week which for him is a big number. You kind of hope that if Rush is in there they do lean heavily and they maybe he'll throw it a little bit more to the running back and we see a random like 5 target Henry game. I think that's your hope here. But the bottom line is Javante is out playing him easily so far in fantasy and it's just the more appealing fantasy option.
- [31:35]
A
I am unfortunately with you on that. If I was any a team that was taking on a Cooper Rush led offense and Derek Henry was the running back, I would just put eight men in the box every time and say go ahead and beat us.
- [31:46]
B
I would put 11 in the box. Just, just let that see what happens.
- [31:48]
C
Yeah, yeah. I and I'm not saying that's. I will say this. Cooper Rush was below average but fine in place.
- [31:55]
B
He kept CD Lamb like I wish Cooper Rush would get traded to the Bengals. Yeah, he was do what he did for CD Lamb.
- [32:00]
C
Yeah, yeah. Remember that Lamb was 14th in fantasy points with Rush last year. That every day of the week that compared to. Yes. Yeah. The disaster of some other situation. So at least there's some chance. Although it's kind of funny going from Lamar to. And by the way, Baltimore is often kept like dual threat quarterbacks as their backup. That is not the case with Cooper Rush.
- [32:19]
B
This is going to be stylistic.
- [32:20]
C
When's the last time Joe Flacco was probably the last time.
- [32:24]
B
For a long time. RG3, you know.
- [32:26]
C
Yeah, yeah, but like a pure packet passer. We haven't seen that in Baltimore in a while. It's going to be different.
- [32:35]
A
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A
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- [33:50]
B
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- [34:02]
A
Speaking of disastrous situations, let's go back to the Bengals guys. Why not?
- [34:05]
B
You are just like a glutton for punishment.
- [34:07]
C
Didn't you do this yesterday?
- [34:08]
A
I We did. But here's the thing Mike. I actually wanted to bring these back to the table because you were here to be able to talk about what you think about the Bengals and their projections.
- [34:16]
C
For me as well, I need to be part of the the sad misery loves company. Yeah.
- [34:20]
A
Jamar chase has under nine fantasy points. In three of his four games the Bengals have scored 13 points with Jake Browning as their starting quarterback.
- [34:28]
B
Thirteen. This is rude.
- [34:30]
A
His value has just cratered and it feels like this is a situation where you look at these last two games with Browning under center defensives has scored 76 points against the Bengals. Like game script is in the favor of all of these pass catchers in this team and it's just not turning into production. Where do you guys in going into week five have Jamar Chase ranked? Because I think this is the week in which we probably have the Biggest discrepancy and he's probably the lowest that he's ever been in any of our rankings board Bet time.
- [35:03]
B
I've got him as wide receiver. 27.
- [35:05]
A
27.
- [35:06]
C
Yeah. You're way down. I'm at 10. I'm on the opposite side. I could have went higher. I'm going to do the same thing I just did with Chase Brown. Give you some reason for optimism.
- [35:13]
A
Okay, 18. So you tell me why I should be more optimistic.
- [35:15]
C
First of all, can I give you.
- [35:16]
B
The reason for pessimism?
- [35:17]
C
You want to do that first? Yeah.
- [35:18]
B
Jake Browning. I'm done.
- [35:20]
C
You're done with Jake Browning? No, Jake Browning. Yeah. First of all, again, two terrible showings from that offense last two weeks. Again, I said it before. Denver, Minnesota, brutal matchups is about as tough as you can get. The schedule goes to third easiest going forward for Bengals wide receivers. Remember three weeks ago with Jake Browning, he caught 10 passes against Jacksonville. He had a huge game. Also, if you look at 20, 23, Chase was. I know you laid this out yesterday. Not great with Jake Browning, but better than he's been the last two weeks. He had a 21% target share that season, which is very low for Jamar Chase this year is 33% target share with Jake Browning. So one third of the targets are going from Browning to Chase. That's reason for optimism. And finally, specific to just one more thing. Yeah, you go, you go, you go facing your Lions this week. The Lions could have presented a tough matchup. However, they are in tough shape. A cornerback right now. DJ Rady's not going to play. Terry and Arnold. I don't think he's going to play.
- [36:23]
A
I think he's going to go either.
- [36:24]
C
That's tough. Yeah.
- [36:25]
A
We'll have Amik Robertson on the outside rather than playing in the slot and.
- [36:29]
C
Probably going to be a massive matchup edge for the Bengals here.
- [36:33]
A
The only saving grace for the Lions is the fact that the. Yeah, so it's Jake Browning in the offensive line. The Bengals have a 44 pass block win rate.
- [36:43]
C
Yeah.
- [36:43]
A
Right. So for those that don't know, yeah, that's really bad. You need to be able to hold your block for at least 2 1/2 seconds. That means that more often than not, players are like, someone on that offensive line is not doing that. It's the worst in the NFL. It's going to be tough for plays to develop downfield unless they're just going to do these screen passes or quick slants or something right off the bat. Because this Lions, I Think defensive front. They just sacked Lamar Jackson seven times. What do you think they're going to do with Jake Browning in this. In this Bengals offensive line? So I. It's a tough one for me. I want to do a board bet, but I want to ask you this.
- [37:13]
B
I want to give Mike some grace on this board bet. By the way, normally we would split the difference 10 to 27. It's a 17 slot thing. 18 and a half like that, by.
- [37:20]
C
The way, is always a major advantage for the person on the lower end.
- [37:24]
B
Just.
- [37:25]
C
Just for the record, he should always. You always have to go.
- [37:27]
A
Oh, yeah.
- [37:28]
B
So do I hear you bust out my tiny violin and tell you your advantages?
- [37:33]
C
My team, one of us went 20 on board bets last week.
- [37:37]
B
Hey, Mike, why don't you spoil the rest of the show?
- [37:41]
A
Dumbledore died.
- [37:42]
C
I want to.
- [37:42]
A
Something like that.
- [37:43]
B
I was gonna say. You're gonna tell him about how Daniel's gonna go shirtless for the last 10 minutes of the show?
- [37:46]
A
Gosh, please.
- [37:47]
B
Oh, crap. I just said it out loud.
- [37:48]
C
You just spoiled that for me. I haven't seen that, so thanks for that. Yeah.
- [37:51]
B
Mike, you know what I'll do? Because I am such a man of principle who cares about you being happy? I'll give you top 25. Done deal.
- [37:59]
A
Wow.
- [38:00]
C
I say Ja' Marr Chase will be a top 25 fantasy receiver in week five.
- [38:04]
B
And I say Jamar Chase will not be a top 25 fantasy wide receiver in week five.
- [38:08]
A
And I say Jamar Chase will be. Exactly. Wide receiver. 18 in week five.
- [38:11]
C
Exactly 18.
- [38:12]
A
Put it on the board.
- [38:14]
C
Yeah.
- [38:14]
A
I have him as wide receiver 18. If he lands on exactly the ranking that I have, then it has to. I got to be involved in some.
- [38:20]
C
That's just my odds. Even more. Because now I don't get 18. I only get.
- [38:23]
B
That's true.
- [38:24]
A
It's like a roulette wheel. It's like I'm the zero. Would you start A.J. brown against Pat Certain this week or would you start.
- [38:31]
C
I'm going Chase.
- [38:32]
A
Okay.
- [38:33]
C
I'm on Chase.
- [38:33]
B
Yes.
- [38:33]
A
Interesting. All right, Fields, you're up with one more.
- [38:36]
B
Okay. Last one here for me. Moving down in the world. And I don't think we were super optimistic about these guys during the season. Remember, during the preseason, it was like, could Bill Crosby. Merritt could become a thing?
- [38:47]
C
Maybe someday.
- [38:47]
B
And then Austin Eckler gets hurt, misses the rest of the season. Could he become a thing?
- [38:51]
A
Didn't make Brian Robinson Jr too.
- [38:53]
B
Got traded as well. It's going to become a thing, right not so fast my friends. As in week four, so last week the Commanders without Jaden Daniels by the way. So there was even more ostensibly rushing opportunity available even as a market. Like sort of, you know, ostensibly means no like sort of in theory. In practice it could be like a suggestive.
- [39:12]
A
Why would you ask me if I don't know what that means?
- [39:14]
B
I don't know because I'm such a well read guy.
- [39:17]
A
Yeah, I am not.
- [39:17]
C
Well, you have a. You could have just googled. I should have.
- [39:19]
A
I should have pulled up a spreadsheet of all the words that I would. That's my bad.
- [39:23]
B
Marcus Mario is a good runner, but Jada Daniels is an elite runner. So last week no Commanders running back ranked higher than 44th in running back snap percentage for the week. None of them saw more than seven carries, two targets or nine total opportunities.
- [39:38]
A
Not good.
- [39:39]
B
By the way, Debo Samuels got back to back games with three carries. He's playing some snaps at running back as well. And the cherry on the top of the Sunday is the Chargers who they face this weekend 4th fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. So until further notice, I am not starting any Commanders running back.
- [39:55]
C
Okay, time for me to put my optimist no optimism ad on. No, I just want to say one I agree with you. These guys should be nowhere close to lineups. It's a three headed backfield right now. However, Krusky Mayor missed some practice last weekend. Barely played in the first half. I think he played like three snaps or something then and they came out in the second half and he played a lot so he only got to 17 snaps. It wasn't a big workload. But perhaps at some point they do expand his role. It hasn't happened yet, so I, I agree.
- [40:20]
A
All right, Mike, I'm going to give you one more and then we're going to move on to our next segment after this.
- [40:25]
C
One more. Okay, last one for me is some fellow by the name, some lad named Lad.
- [40:29]
B
In fact, yes, our weekly LAD segment.
- [40:31]
C
LAD McConkey, 55th in fantasy points. It seems bad based on where we drafted him this year. Last week, career low marks and catches with one yardage with 11 fantasy points with 2.1. Still played a ton in the game, 93% of the snaps. But Quentin Johnson had 13 targets. Keenan Allen had seven in the game. His target share, yardage and fantasy point total have actually dipped each week of the season. 1, 2, 3, 4. He's still, you know, playing a ton in this offense. It's a wide receiver Friendly scheme. It's a good matchup against Washington this week, but obviously I'm a little concerned I have him down at wide receiver 27. I know you guys are in the vicinity as well. So the guy I want to name game him with is Wanda Robinson, 30th in fantasy points so far this season. Of course, this is notable for two reasons. One, no Malik neighbors and he's massive target share anymore. Yeah, you also have, I guess three parts. Jackson Dart takes over a quarterback last week and looked pretty good. And also a terrific matchup against the New Orleans Saints. So who do you got?
- [41:31]
B
Can I run my theory that I presented yesterday by you and see if you think there's any merit to it whatsoever? Wandell had five targets last week, not a big number. And although Neighbors did play to begin the game, much of the game there was no Malik neighbors. Jackson Dart was hit eight times as a runner and he was sacked five times last week. I thought the Giants went full kitchen sink last week with Jackson Dart. It was perceived, at least outside the building as a desperation move. The best way to validate a move is to win, and they did. Do you think the Giants might be more protective of Jackson Dart starting right away? Like now? The move is justified. You got a gigantic win against the.
- [42:10]
A
Chargers team you shouldn't have beat team.
- [42:12]
B
That for a player that you drafted in the first round. It was only a matter of time. The Giants get the W on the field. They also get the W in the decision making. Can the Giants really play Jackson Dart like that every single week?
- [42:25]
C
I mean, it's going to be tough to take that much of a hit all the time. But again, we've seen it with other players too. I mean, if you. If you know, it would not be. Would it be shocking to me if he runs 6, 7, 8 times many weeks?
- [42:37]
B
6, 7 times. 6, 7 times. But more seriously. Okay, my theory is that like if they are a little bit more protective of Jackson Dart this week, it might just mean more, you know, wide receiver screens things one day.
- [42:50]
C
Yeah, thriving. I think that's his game. So I think he'll be utilized similarly even if it's a little bit different. But anyway, I still have McConkey ahead in this one, this head to head. But it is a close conversation here. Gosh, I'm gonna conversation.
- [43:01]
A
I'm not gonna do a full topic for my last one because I got a bunch of players. I'm gonna dive into a squirrel stock. But I do just want to ask you guys, would you play t. Higgins over lad McConkey. Or would you play lad McConkey?
- [43:11]
B
I would just stop playing fantasy.
- [43:13]
A
Yeah, fantasy basketball is right around the corner, right? Sign up for a fantasy basketball league maybe is what the. That's what the answer is there. I'd play Wandale Robinson over T. Higgins this week. For what it's worth. I don't know if you guys are.
- [43:24]
C
In this post call. Oh, man.
- [43:26]
A
All right, let's talk about some players that I think are either stock up or stock down. We're gonna do some squirrel stock here.
- [43:31]
B
Okay? Hit us.
- [43:32]
A
I'm tell you guys where I think they're at. Okay, I'm gonna give you a sentence, a takeaway, and I want you guys to tell me whether or not you are buying or selling my statement.
- [43:40]
B
Got it? All right, I'm ready for it.
- [43:41]
A
Stock up right now. On. And I think this first one's gonna be a little bit of a layup on Jalen Waddle. My statement is Jalen Waddle will be a top 20 wide receiver for the rest of the season. The reason why, and I'm sure you guys already know this, Tyreek Hill done for the season. Waddle becomes the clear number one pass catcher. I'm not all that worried about Malik Washington or Nick Westbrook, Akine or Darren Waller. They don't really move the needle for me. And the good news is the Dolphins defense sucks. Right? They're just bad. We assume that they're probably going to have to pass the ball a lot. And now that target situation has just been funneled into one main guy rather than having to split it between Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle. And I think with a healthy two under center. Big caveat. As long as Tua is healthy and under center, I think there's a clear path to Waddle being potentially north of eight targets a game. Are you buying or selling? Jalen Waddle being a top 20 wide receiver for the rest of the season.
- [44:33]
B
I am going to buy it, but not with all my money available. He's currently wide receiver 31, so he's. I think he had an uptick, so definitely will improve. Top 20 might be a little more difficult to get.
- [44:46]
C
Agreed. I'm going to sell. I think he's close. Okay. He's generally hung around like the top 20, 25 at his peak before Tyree Kill when he was the number one receiver and heavily targeted. He just hasn't really been able to get over the top and live up to his really the investment they made when they made that kind of wild Trade a month before the draft to move up a little bit. I still, to this day I'm a little surprised because they had so much, so many assets. And then of course, Eagles took Devontae Smith without trade. Anyway, long. That's a. That's a topic for another day. I mean, look, I'm happy.
- [45:15]
A
I wish you could have seen Mike's face because it was like he wanted me to go down this thing and then he recognizes, ah, I shouldn't. All right, let's keep gun going.
- [45:21]
C
They traded with the Eagles, so it was good for the Eagles. But to this day, I'm still alive. Like, kind of dumbfounded that they made that trade. But anyway, I think that he has a little bit of a ceiling to him also. Tough matchup this week, so I, I think he'll be fine. I agree that his value uptick, but not quite top 20.
- [45:35]
B
Yeah, he's been top 21 in two out of four weeks so far this season. Got a chance to get there more.
- [45:40]
A
If I said top 25, would that have been an easy buy?
- [45:43]
C
I think I would have said yes.
- [45:44]
B
I would have said that right around top 25.
- [45:45]
C
Right in that mix.
- [45:46]
A
Remember as a rookie, too? I mean, the first two years in the league, he was great. Wide receiver 13 as a rookie, wide receiver 8 as a sophomore. Outside the top 35 each of the last two.
- [45:54]
C
The receivers the last two years in Miami, I mean, they were starting it. They're. They're getting rolling the right direction this year. Yeah, they look sweet on Monday, too.
- [46:00]
B
Like, when I say that, I mean like the offense, you know how I've talked about how I felt like the league kind of caught up with the Dolphins offense Monday night. There were some sweet wrinkles. Like two was going behind the back.
- [46:09]
A
I saw that pass was sick.
- [46:11]
B
That was cool.
- [46:11]
C
Yeah. Yeah.
- [46:12]
A
All right, next one for me, this one's going to be a stock down on Jordan Mason. Jordan Mason will not have another weekly finish as a top 20 running back.
- [46:22]
C
Wow.
- [46:23]
A
This season I'm going to be selling that.
- [46:25]
C
I'm selling that hard.
- [46:26]
B
Yeah.
- [46:26]
A
I mean, Jordan Mason dominated in week three. Who'd they play?
- [46:29]
B
Probably the Bengals.
- [46:30]
A
They played the Cincinnati Bengals. 23.6 fantasy points. He was inefficient last week. He had 19 touches, only turned that into 10.2 fantasy points. And Xavier Scott came on as like the clear passing down back right. Like we saw. I think he's had three catches Jordan Mason did in that game. But also it felt like there was a lot of garbage time. Carson wentz was just slinging it at the end there. So like that. I don't think that's normally going to be the case. Here is the problem for me with Jordan Mason.
- [46:54]
C
Okay.
- [46:55]
A
Week five, they play the Cleveland Browns.
- [46:58]
C
Tough one.
- [46:58]
A
Yeah. Second fewest fantasy points to running backs. I know Jameer Gibbs just looks really good, but if you're going to compare Jordan Mason to one of the two Lions running backs, are you comparing him to Jameer Gibbs or David Montgomery?
- [47:09]
C
Craig Reynolds? Oh, David Montgomery. Yeah.
- [47:10]
A
David Montgomery did very poor against the Cleveland Browns. I don't think this is going to. This is a bad matchup here. Week 6 they have a buy buys have allowed zero fantasy points to running back so far this year. Yeah, that's the least amongst all positions.
- [47:22]
C
Impressive. Yeah.
- [47:23]
A
So by in week six, then they take on the Eagles mid pack against running backs and then The Chargers Week 8, 4th Fewest Fantasy Points to the position. And the Lions in week nine, eighth fewest fantasy points to the position. And somewhere in there there's a chance that Aaron Jones returns from his IR stint where he's been dealing with a hamstring injury. So knowing that Aaron Jones is likely going to return sometime soon, it's going to go back to being a committee. He's not going to have the full time role to himself and three of his next four games, including a bye weekend, there are against teams that are top eight against the run. I don't think that once Aaron Jones comes back, he's got enough juice in his game to be a top 20 running back. So that's why I'm selling. I want to know are you guys buying or selling Jordan Mason not having another weekly finish as a top 20 running back this season.
- [48:07]
B
So I'm selling as well. I think you probably need to get to 15 fantasy points to be a top 20 back. Last week it would have put you as RB 20.5 right in between DeAndre Swift and Jonathan Taylor at 20 and 21. So I think 15 fantasy points is very viable. Like for Mason that could be 16 carries, 64 yards, one touchdown plus what, three carries, three catches for 12 yards. Like that's possible.
- [48:31]
A
Are you saying that with Aaron Jones back in the lineup or any point.
- [48:34]
B
Any point. Any point over the next four games or whatever you just described laid out like. Yeah, I could think I could see it happening.
- [48:39]
A
You think that's going to happen?
- [48:40]
C
All right. Even last week he had 16 carries and three targets over 70 yards. And what what we're considering a he.
- [48:45]
B
Finds the end zone once he Gets into the top.
- [48:47]
C
Exactly right. He's going to get the goal line work. Even when Jones is back, he's going to be the lead rusher. And this is a guy, by the way, that since he entered the league is top three in yards per carry. I believe he's second in yards per carry, first in yards after contact. He is an effective rusher and he's averaging 4.8 yards per carry this season. So he's still. He's a very, very talented rusher. I think he'll have a handful of top 20s.
- [49:07]
A
Interesting. I think he had one. He's had one so far already. Every other game he's been.
- [49:12]
C
Yeah, I think what you're laying out definitely is an issue with his ceiling. And that's, that's, you know, I talked about that a lot throughout the off season. That's why I wasn't as interested in him because the ceiling, even with Aaron, without Aaron, Jones is somewhat limited because of the way he's utilized. But there's enough, there's enough scoring. I think that he'll deliver some tops.
- [49:31]
A
As a mostly non pass catching running back. I think he is a matchup dependent, touchdown dependent, like flex play for you. And so that's why they. Yeah, for me, 20 RB20, I think is flirting with.
- [49:43]
B
It's possible.
- [49:43]
A
Next one. I got two more. Okay, wide receiver Tedro McMillan. Stock up. He will be a top 20 wide receiver over the next month of this season. I actually think things are a little bit more positive than sometimes you might Think with Tedro McMillan. If you drafted him, you've been like, I thought I was going to get a guy that was going to have this elite production as like a huge rookie wide receiver.
- [50:02]
B
Right.
- [50:03]
A
He is the number one guy for Bryce Young. The truth is he's seventh in targets. He has 36 targets. You love that. But it just hasn't really. I was gonna say matriculated. That's not fair.
- [50:12]
B
Materialized.
- [50:13]
A
It materialized into the production that you were hoping for. 21st in receptions with only 18 receptions. So he's getting the volume, not really the production. But these next two matchups that he has are great. This week Bryce Young gets the Dolphins and we have been waiting for anyone to be able to play the Miami Dolphins at the quarterback spot. Hopefully that can help unlock some of this chemistry between Bryce young and Tedro McMillan. The week after that, they get the Dallas Cowboys. It's like they get two Christmas gifts right in a row, which is fantastic. Week seven and eight, they get the jets and the Bill. So it gets a little bit tougher. However, I think these next two weeks really jumpstart Teterow McMillan's ascension into being a more trustworthy fantasy wide receiver. So I want to know if you guys are buying or selling Tedro McMillan being a top 20 wide receiver over the next month of the season.
- [51:01]
C
I'm going to. It's a close one, very much like Jalen Waddle, but I'm going to buy on the top. Yeah. Yeah. Eight to ten targets in every game so far. Massive share of the air yards and targets in that offense. I know the efficiency needs to be better. I'm still a little suspect on Bryce Young, but talked about the next two matchups. I think there's enough here he can get there.
- [51:19]
A
Agree.
- [51:19]
B
I believe, and I agree with Mike. I think he laid out very solid logic. I believe the next two games are make or break for Bryce Young as the Carolina Panthers future quarterback. Yeah, if they, if he does not play well, they're not going to win these two games. I know that Miami and Dallas leave zero to be desired. They leave much to be desired defensively, but they're both more than capable offensively to win those games against the Carolina.
- [51:46]
A
Defense who just got, just scored 40 points against the Packers.
- [51:49]
B
Yeah. No, the Cowboys are. I mean, they're the most chemically imbalanced team in the NFL. They're really good on offense and they stink on defense. The Panthers, if Bryce Young does not play well, will go 02 and they will then be one in five. With their one win being that shutout against the Falcons, which was about the defense more so than the offense. If Bryce Young does not have a really solid season this year, the Panthers are going to have no choice but to heavily invest in a quarterback this off season. Because after three years, if you're still wondering whether the kid is the real deal or not, in the culture that we are in now in the NFL, the answer is no. We don't have patience anymore. These two weeks are such an opportunity for Bryce Young to build some confidence and hopefully that correlates to fantasy points for Tedro McMillan and everybody else as well. But I'll just say is a real football thought an important two weeks ahead.
- [52:34]
A
If he builds confidence because he finds Hunter Henry in the end zone two more times, I'm going to lose my mind. All of these touchdowns.
- [52:43]
B
Renfro.
- [52:44]
C
But yeah, yeah.
- [52:44]
A
What did I say, Henry? Oh, sorry.
- [52:46]
B
Who has been so frequently visiting the end zone that he's just stuck in your brain.
- [52:50]
A
Yes, that's what it is. I mean Hunter, Hunter Henry.
- [52:51]
B
That's my one scoring tight end in the NFL season.
- [52:53]
A
Don't fields. We don't need that.
- [52:55]
B
I'm just spitting facts.
- [52:57]
A
Here's my last one.
- [52:58]
B
Okay.
- [52:59]
A
And it's actually a tight end. Stock up here. There are only four tight ends this season that have at least seven and a half fantasy points in all four games.
- [53:10]
B
Trey McBride.
- [53:11]
A
Trey McBride.
- [53:12]
B
Brock Bowers.
- [53:13]
A
Brock Bowers. You're not going to get the other.
- [53:15]
C
Two whole fathering him basically.
- [53:17]
A
Harold Fannin, Dalton Kincaid. He had one catch and the last one is Kyle Pitts.
- [53:25]
C
Wow.
- [53:25]
A
Kyle Pitts. Right now he is sixth amongst tight ends in targets. He is getting opportunities. He has been a part of this offense. I feel like we're at the spot because tight end is just a wasteland that we need to consider. Kyle Pitts. You know how we always talk fondly like we remember very fondly with like this like warm nostalgia in our hearts. His rookie season.
- [53:47]
C
Thousand yards.
- [53:48]
A
Kyle Pitts had a thousand yards as rookie. This is when Field does his internal monologue. I feel like this is what it is.
- [53:53]
B
That's exactly what I say.
- [53:54]
A
You came from like a short time so you kind of sound like a pirate. You're like so good as a rookie. I love what Kyle Pitts did.
- [54:00]
C
Hey, hey.
- [54:01]
A
I think he can be really. Anyways, what is happening?
- [54:03]
B
I Nobody knows.
- [54:05]
A
2021, his rookie season he averaged 10.4 points per game. Here in 2025 he's averaging 11.6 points per game.
- [54:13]
C
That's better.
- [54:13]
A
He has actually had the best four game start of his career. He has never started better than he has through the first month of this season. And it's not huge target share but it just looks like a trusted target of Michael Penix. And just because of how bad the rest of the tight end landscape is I think that Kyle Pitts will be a top 10 tight end for the rest of the season. Are you guys buying or selling?
- [54:36]
B
So I'm going to buy it because it's such a desperate position right now. That's right.
- [54:40]
A
That's half the analysis.
- [54:41]
B
That's the most important part to me. He's playing well and even if he does not reach the.
- [54:45]
A
I know he's on a buy this week. I just want to say that he's on a buy here in week five. But we haven't talked about him.
- [54:49]
B
Even Kyle Pitts isn't the player that we thought he was going to be coming out at the NFL draft. Like he is a totally serviceable NFL tight end. The problem is when you get drafted fourth overall, you can't be totally serviceable. You have to be, I would argue, offense altering. And he is not offense altering.
- [55:04]
C
Yeah. If he was drafted like where Chico Conko was drafted.
- [55:08]
B
There you go. What a great sign. He'd be popular 100%.
- [55:11]
C
But that's about where his fantasy outputs.
- [55:13]
B
I mean, I asked Mike whether Darren Waller was a name that intrigued him at all before the show. Waller, who did have two touchdowns last week, played just 28% of the snapshot snaps. He and I agree the snap count is going to go up. It has to.
- [55:25]
C
Yeah.
- [55:25]
B
So he's on the radar for sure. It's desperate times, a tight end right now. I'll give you one more name and actually, you answer this, I'll give you one more tight end name to monitor besides Darren Waller. Unless you want to just say great job on the Kyle Pitts thing.
- [55:38]
C
Oh, yeah, he'll be top 10 borderline. But I'll say I'll agree with you. I think he can get in there. By the way, just quick note, they're using him a little differently now. Career high catch rate, career low average. Have to target more high percentage throws. That's good.
- [55:52]
B
One more name and shout out to our buddy Ian Hartitz, who kind of alerted me to this initially. I guess I watched the game, but I wasn't processing this at the time. Do you realize that in his last game before he got hurt, which was Week 3, that Colston Loveland had three targets on six snaps against the Cowboys? Yeah, I get it. The Bears have a lot of mouths to feed. Roma, Dunes A and DJ Moore, and to a degree, Cole Commander. But just flagging a name who's the 10th overall pick in the draft clearly is very talented. He had a catch for 31 yards and that week three game sort of suggested that maybe the Cowboys, I'm sorry, the Bears against the Cowboys were looking to get him more involved.
- [56:29]
A
And this is one of those things that I wonder going into a bye week, what's going to change coming out of a bye week? Do we see a little bit more of that rookie that they wanted to build into this offense because of that?
- [56:39]
B
So I think assuming he's healthy, he was close to healthy or close to playing this past week because of a hip injury, but just a name to monitor. Am it's been such a weak, weak year on the waiver wire.
- [56:50]
A
Right.
- [56:50]
B
We're talking about this yesterday, that if you have a name that at all intrigues you, Flyers can sometimes have value.
- [56:57]
A
Yep. Absolutely. All right, that's going to do it for our squirrel stock segment. Let's do a little bit of board bet payoff here. We had a board bets last week.
- [57:03]
C
Yeah.
- [57:04]
A
Unfortunately I lost one to Mike clay. I had JSN over 85 and a half receiving yards. Mike took under 85 and a half receiving yards.
- [57:12]
C
Yards.
- [57:13]
A
If they had thrown the ball to him in the first half at all, he would have topped this. But he only had 70.
- [57:18]
C
He was lucky to get even that close. That was a lot of late game.
- [57:22]
A
Do you hear? He just called JSN Lucky. He had three straight hundred yard reception. Yeah. 100 yard games.
- [57:27]
B
Yeah.
- [57:27]
C
And what did I tell you? It's. You can't. It's so hard to do that four weeks in a row. And there's. There's your proof.
- [57:32]
A
Yeah. So I lost that board bet unfortunately.
- [57:34]
B
Congrats to Mike on this.
- [57:35]
C
Thank you very much also.
- [57:36]
A
But just. Can we just talk about how good JSN has been?
- [57:38]
C
Awesome.
- [57:38]
A
He has been unbelievable with Sam Darwin.
- [57:41]
B
Top 10 wide receiver in fantasy right now. And by the way, Sam Darnold has been playing awesome ball.
- [57:45]
A
Great.
- [57:45]
B
We said that prior to the game last week.
- [57:48]
A
Minnesota would love to have Sam Darnold back under center right now.
- [57:51]
C
Yeah, it would. Yeah.
- [57:52]
A
All right. End of sentence. All right, let's move on to the next one. We had another board bet. Ashton Genti. This was between field and Mike. Ashton Genti was going to be either inside or outside. Where did he finish for the week, Mike?
- [58:05]
C
He finished number one, guys.
- [58:06]
A
RV1. Okay, so he was inside the top 20.
- [58:09]
C
Yeah. So I feel like this is one where I get two wins. Like we were talking about the touchdown. Yeah. Contest where if they score twice, you get double the points. I should get double.
- [58:17]
A
I. I agree with you on that. If they finish, you say he's being top 20 and he finishes as the number one player. Yeah. I think you should get two points.
- [58:23]
C
For that and I. I think we'll talk about him more over the next 48 hours. Good to see that.
- [58:29]
A
Huge.
- [58:29]
C
Helps us feel better about him. But still some concerns here. I don't know if you guys talked about this already still, you know we can. Could we need a little more if this is going to sustain, especially in the past two targets. Yeah.
- [58:40]
A
And they just lost Colton Miller, I.
- [58:42]
B
Believe is that left tackle. Who is their best offensive lineman. Some would say the only good offensive lineman the Raiders have. If you are looking for a little bit of optimism for Ashton Genti this week, specifically the Colts haven't faced a lot of rushing attempts because they have been playing with the lead for much of this season, but they are bottom six in yards before contact per carry. This season checks out. Again, not as much volume as your average NFL team. So a couple of big runs could skew that data a little bit. But that same logic applied to why there was some optimism last week against the Bears and it resulted in Gen Z playing much, much better. And you just hope, you hope because I'm with Mike, I'm not like, hey, this is back to being a top five running back like we hoped for coming into the season. You just hope that one game can not just sort of spring some confidence into Ash and Genti, but also make the Raiders kind of acknowledge like, all right, if we have any chance of competing this year and they lost last week, but if we have any chance of competing offensively, we're going to need Brock Bowers to be great, Kobe Myers to be very good and Ashton Genti to be one of the busiest running backs in the NFL.
- [59:49]
A
Well, as a part of that, Geno Smith needs to be able to I feel like be able to find his trusted pass catchers. No offense to Trey Tucker, but like I want the ball to go the guys that we want the ball to go to.
- [60:00]
C
So let's hope we get there.
- [60:01]
A
All right. We're going to have to spin the start of the week punishment wheel.
- [60:06]
C
Oh, are we field Yates?
- [60:07]
A
Unfortunately I believe streak comes to an end. You are the one. Yeah. I had two in a row and I believe this week. If you want to throw them up there. Do we have a full screen with.
- [60:16]
B
Totally finished all my face. I'd gone six zero to start and now I'm oh and two this week. What the heck. Geno Smith, Dalton Kincaid. You had one catch, went for a touchdown but 9.8 so I ended up with 32.68 fantasy points with Geno Smith, Tony Pollard, Darnell Mooney and Dalton Kincaid. Mooney did get hurt. Doesn't matter for this game. That's how it works. Mike won the week.
- [60:38]
C
Yeah. Wow. This was not close. I had a good week.
- [60:40]
B
Yeah.
- [60:41]
C
Baker Mayfield, Quinshon Judkins. Actually Mayfield got that slow start so I was lucky. Judkins Tee Higgins was a dud but got me 6 points and then TJ Hawkinson which 7.9 doesn't seem good but also was almost the highest among the tight ends we chose because tight end as you mentioned. Yeah, not great.
- [60:59]
B
Not great at all.
- [61:00]
C
Bob.
- [61:00]
A
Boy, you should have started Jaden Higgins if You said that. I meant Jaden Higgins, not T. Higgins. You actually would have had a good one. He got in the end zone.
- [61:06]
B
All right.
- [61:07]
A
And then I was in your.
- [61:08]
C
Yep.
- [61:09]
B
All right, here we go. My first time doing this, I'm a little bit nervous. All right, watch. I get re. Spin or something like completely lame.
- [61:16]
C
Chat picks.
- [61:18]
A
The Chat gets to choose your lineup. Your quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end.
- [61:22]
C
They picked them. Yeah.
- [61:24]
B
All right, well, chat. I'm depending on you guys this week. I know you got this.
- [61:27]
A
Let's see. We're going to find out if Chat likes field or dislikes field. When we find out.
- [61:32]
B
Oh, that's a good point because that's a good question. Here is like, is. Is. Is the. Is the. The hope for the Chat. Like, do you guys. Are you guys playing to win or are you guys playing to lose?
- [61:40]
C
Yeah, to some extent it has to be competitive because if you.
- [61:43]
B
Doesn't need to be put Joe Flack.
- [61:45]
C
It's terrible. You're gonna.
- [61:46]
A
Oh, yeah.
- [61:46]
C
Well, that'. Here's the question. They need to determine if they want you to be punished again or not. Yes. They want you to spin the wheel.
- [61:55]
B
That's true. I mean, honestly, there's a part of me that is like, yeah, the spirit of the game should be to try to win. And then there's part of me that's like, what the hell is the spirit of the game? They can do whatever they want. You guys choose. So if you guys want me to just be spinning this wheel every single week, then, or maybe next week again, then you guys can give me like.
- [62:10]
A
You know, Dylan Gabriel, Xavier Scott.
- [62:13]
C
Yeah, sure.
- [62:13]
A
Go Nick Westbrook. Akine.
- [62:14]
C
See what's fun about that?
- [62:15]
A
Travis Kelce.
- [62:16]
C
What's fun about that is, though, if you're. You somehow scrape by and don't finish last. That would be hilarious. That'd be so. Goodly speaking, though, by the way, a.
- [62:23]
B
Little bit of news breaking into the show with two minutes and we will talk about this later on tomorrow in further depth because we'll find more. Adam Schefter says Bucks running back Bucky Irving is dealing with the foot sprain.
- [62:35]
A
No way.
- [62:36]
B
He was spotted today at practice on crutches and in a walking boot. So much, much more to come on that if Rashad White is available in your league for some reason today, please grab him right now off the waiver wire because puts Bucky Irving into some level of uncertainty for the.
- [62:52]
C
Yeah. White lead back could get 1012 carries out of Sean Tucker as well. So if you're in a really tough spot. Tucker worth an ad too, but go to waivers right now. You're right. Rashad White, priority one. Sean Tucker, priority two.
- [63:03]
A
Do you want to keep talking real quick while I go to all the leagues that I'm in? Yeah.
- [63:08]
C
I have Buck in the league.
- [63:11]
A
Is Ross actually 50 a league so he's out there in a lot of leagues right now.
- [63:14]
C
In the focus league I have. I have Bucky Irving and this guy beat me on waivers to Rashad White.
- [63:20]
B
There are perks of your kids being absolute savages. Waking up at 5:30 some mornings, buddy, as I always say, be kind to each other.
- [63:28]
C
Yeah, there you go.
- [63:30]
A
And thank you for watching Fantasy Focus Football presented by Little Caesars as well. That's right. Don't forget to love each other. Be kind to yourself. We'll see you guys tomorrow. Tomorrow we'll be back here for a Thursday night Football preview.
- [63:39]
C
Oh, man. Feels like everyone be mean to each other. Sam sat.