How to Crush Fantasy Playoffs Like a Pro! | Fantasy Focus 🏈

Summary

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Fantasy Focus Football — "How to Crush Fantasy Playoffs Like a Pro!"

Date: December 11, 2025
Hosts: Liz Loza (main), Quentin (Producer), Kevin Pulsifer (ESPN Content Researcher/Guest)
Podcast: ESPN Fantasy Focus Football

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Episode Overview

This episode of Fantasy Focus Football is all about helping fantasy managers "crush" their playoffs. Liz Loza and Producer Quentin are joined by stats guru Kevin Pulsifer to deliver player insights, answer listener questions, and reveal strategies for maximizing your roster in the most critical weeks of the fantasy season. With blend of data analysis and personal feelings, the crew emphasizes making bold but informed decisions, and keeping enjoyment alive in these high-pressure weeks.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Ride Boldness Into the Playoffs — Experiences Over Outcomes

Liz and Quentin swap stories of their playoff journeys and set the tone: staying aggressive and adaptable wins playoffs.

• Liz Loza: "No better time than to take bold action than in the fantasy playoffs." (01:15)

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2. Player Spotlights for the Fantasy Playoffs

Drake Maye — A Must-Start QB (03:08)

• Performance: QB3 overall, averaging 20 points/game. Second in passing yards per game, fourth in passing TDs, plus third-most rushing attempts among QBs.
• Week 15 Concerns: Faced struggles vs. BUF in Week 5 (his lowest fantasy output), but Liz is bullish given BUF’s recent defensive stumbles and the high game total (O/U 50.5).
• Liz Loza:

  “I have him ranked inside my top four at the position.” (04:17)
  “May has evolved since Week five. His chemistry with his pass catchers is clicking on an even better level right now.” (03:46)

Jonathan Taylor — Stick or Twist? (04:41)

• Recent Dip: Averaging just 11.7 points/game since Week 11, with a huge production gap between Colts wins (31.4) vs. losses (11.45).
• Situation Worsens: 13.5-point underdogs at Seattle, where SEA is allowing the 7th fewest RB points. Philip Rivers expected to start, threatening efficiency.
• Liz's Dilemma:

  “If you can't [sit Taylor], because running back is running back, then find all of the juicy upside you can elsewhere…knowing Taylor is going to underwhelm in week 15.” (05:39)

Jordan Addison — Volume-Based Upside (07:14)

• Rising Over Jefferson: 13 red zone targets (vs. Jefferson's 10); 17 targets over past two weeks; WR30 in Liz’s ranks this week.
• Upcoming Matchup: Facing DAL (2nd most WR points allowed). MIN are 5.5-point underdogs, meaning catch-up game script and big volume expected.
• Liz Loza:

  "Addison is seeing more volume and he is producing more as a result." (07:29)
  “Volume is always king in fantasy.” (08:15)

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Fantasy Therapy Couch: Listener Q&A

(Starts at 10:58)

1. Frustration with Bijan Robinson’s Usage (11:15)

• Caller: Kevin from Cleveland
• Complaint: Bijan isn’t a workhorse, fantasy frustration.
• Liz’s Response:

  “He has just seven total touchdowns…RB13 in total TDs — not what you want from your number one pick.”
  “This week against Tampa Bay is much softer. I am expecting a bounce back for you and I on Thursday night.” (12:16)

2. QB Streaming Advice (12:30)

• Caller: Matt Aragon
• Need: Daniel Jones replacement: J.J. McCarthy vs. DAL or Tyler Shough vs. CAR.
• Liz’s Take:

  “We’re streaming…Schough’s rushing potential on full display in Week 14, that is the direction I am leaning.” (13:21)

3. Celebrating a Playoff Breakout (13:41)

• Caller: Nick from Boise
• Shoutout: Michael Wilson delivered a fantasy playoff spot.
• Liz:

  “Michael Wilson was one of my favorite players coming out of Stanford…Has cleared 100 yards in every contest MHJ has missed...So keep an eye on injury reports!” (14:31)

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Playoff Roster Strategy with Kevin Pulsifer

(Begins at 15:23)

Optimizing Your Playoff Bench (16:27)

• Strategy Shift:

  “Benches in playoffs should look drastically different than on draft day…Hold backup RBs, extra defenses for matchups, not just stash-and-hope guys.” (16:27)

  • Example: Storing Bills D early for their good matchup in Week 16.

Assessing Risk: Start Your Studs, Chase Upside (17:39)

• Jonathan Taylor Conundrum:

  “You know he’s going to be in your lineup…so maybe have a couple guys for upside in case you need to swing late.” (18:10)

• Potential Flexes:

  “Jamari, Darius Slayton…guys that if you think you need the 20-30 point upside, you can have a little bit of room for that.” (18:13)

• Stash Value:

  “Maybe somebody dropped Mike Evans…if he’s back in week 16 or 17, you’ve got a guy you can put in your flex.” (18:56)

Overhyped & Underhyped Stats for Playoff Context

Stats Commonly Overhyped (19:25)

• Warning:

  “Every stat can be overhyped if it doesn’t have the proper context.” (19:25)

  • Example: Yards per Route Run — can be misleading if volume/outlier plays aren’t considered.

Undervalued Stats (21:33)

• Median Output > Mean:

  “One thing fantasy managers don’t do enough: look at median output instead of just average…get rid of outliers.” (21:33)

  • Example: Amari DiMercado’s inflated yards/carry came from garbage-time runs.

Context Wins (23:03)

• Kevin:

  “A number can represent as close to reality as possible, but there is always some tweaking to be done.” (23:03)

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Notable Stats & Memorable Moments

• Devante Adams’ End Zone Dominance:

  “Devonte Adams has 25 end zone targets this year…14 touchdowns! Only two teams have more than 14 end zone TDs.” (23:54)

  • “Matthew Stafford and Devonte Adams are a perfect connection.” (24:12)
• Puka’s Role:

  “Puka... must start, but the Rams have the inside track for the 1-seed, no reason for them to start throwing Puka the ball in the end zone more. That’s Adams’ zone.” (24:29)

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Sit and Start Calls for Week 15 (25:18)

• Sit:
  Breece Hall

  • “I have no confidence in starting Breece Hall…only one game over 20 fantasy points all season…just as much chance for 6 as 16.” (25:56)

• Start:
  Darius Slayton (NYG WR)

  • “He’s averaging nearly 13 fantasy points per game last three games with Jackson Dart…now they get Washington…worst pass defense." (27:36)

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“This or That” Lightning Round with Kevin Pulsifer

(Starts at 30:31)

• Mitchell vs. Metchie (Week 15 WR Flex):
  • Kevin: "I'd rather get the short PPR catches from Metchie instead of Mitchell." (30:55)
• Fantasy MVP: Jameer Gibbs or Jaxon Smith-Njigba?
  • Kevin: “I'm gonna go with Gibbs. The Lions are fighting for the playoffs.” (31:51)
• Week 15 QB: Jacoby Brissett vs. JJ McCarthy
  • Kevin: “I'll start McCarthy…he can run a little bit.” (33:02)
• Who wins: Darth Vader or Thanos (with Infinity Gauntlet)?
  • Kevin: “Actually, Darth Vader, because he has control of the Force and can do things from further away…” (33:34)

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Key Quotes & Takeaways

• On Playoff Mindset:

  “Courage is a requirement in fantasy. I hope you play brave and whether you finish first or dead last, please remember nothing’s worse than settling for the middle.” — Liz Loza (35:00)

• On Analysis:

  “Take the facts of fantasy football seriously but consult your feelings before making any lineup changes.” — Producer Quentin (02:51)

• On Using Stats Wisely:

  “Every stat can be overhyped if it doesn’t have the proper context.” — Kevin Pulsifer (19:25)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [03:08] Drake Maye deep dive & “must start”
• [04:41] Jonathan Taylor’s risk profile for Week 15
• [07:14] Jordan Addison’s ascending value & matchup play
• [10:58] Listener “fantasy therapy”: frustrations, waiver advice
• [15:23] Strategy shift for playoff benches with Kevin Pulsifer
• [19:25] Stats: what matters, what’s hype, what’s overlooked
• [23:54] Devonte Adams’ historic red-zone use
• [25:18] Week 15: Sit (Breece Hall) & Start (Darius Slayton)
• [30:31] “This or That” - rapid-fire decision round

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Closing Thoughts

This high-energy, insight-packed episode strikes the perfect balance between cold, hard statistical analysis and the fun, emotional roller coaster of the fantasy playoffs. Liz and the team bring actionable advice, surprising stats, and some much-needed fantasy therapy to help managers make tough choices, find hidden upside, and savor the ride—no matter the outcome.

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“May your facts be solid, your feelings be right, and your bust be someone else’s problem. Good luck in the playoffs!” — Liz Loza (35:23)

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Transcript

[Quentin]

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[Liz Loza]

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[Quentin]

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[Kevin Pulsifer]

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[Kevin Pulsifer]

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[Liz Loza]

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Hey, I'm Liz Loza and this is facts versus Feelings. Your amuse bouche to your fantasy focus main course. We are bringing more fantasy, more facts, more feelings and of course more fun. And now that I have your attention, today's fact is that the result doesn't cancel out the experience.

Well, hello producer Quentin. It is nice to have you on facts versus Feelings because what is this show without a little aura farming?

[Quentin]

Hello, Liz Loza. I might be perhaps aura farming a little bit because as you can see, I got the new haircut so perhaps that's good.

[Liz Loza]

Yes, low taper fade, little taper fade.

[Quentin]

You know, and like sometimes as we were talking about, you got to mix it up and take some chances. So I'm like, you know, no hat, new haircut. We'll see how it goes.

[Liz Loza]

I mean, no better time than to take bold action than in the fantasy playoffs. How many of your teams are advancing?

[Quentin]

2 of the 3. The only one that's not so good is the one that we're in a league two together in and that's fantasy focused league. My other two leagues I got like a frisky title contender and then like a pretty decisive title contender. So we're feeling really good. Liz, going into the fantasy playoffs, have.

[Liz Loza]

You clinched a first round buy in either of those?

[Quentin]

The one that is a pretty decisive yes, I have. I'm the one seed in that and then the other one, I'm the three seed. I'm going to commit the Liz Lowe's at cardinal sin. I am leading that league in points four.

[Kevin Pulsifer]

So you might be able to say.

[Quentin]

I'm the best team.

[Liz Loza]

You know, such a crutch. But I will allow it. I will also allow our viewers to like and subscribe to this videos. In fact, I would encourage it. I would also encourage that they continue to call our voicemail line. Q. Why don't you tell them that number?

[Quentin]

It's 914-34-8-1893. And Liz, when do we check that voicemail?

[Liz Loza]

We check them every Monday. Also, you guys have been awesome with the voicemails. We are loving all of the crash outs, the cash outs, the questions that you are leaving. Feel free to call about your fantasy team, about advice about yourself. I mean, this is what facts versus Feelings is all about. So let's finish the season strong with a lot of wins and a lot of great content. In fact Q why don't you just play the disclaimer so we can get right to it?

[Quentin]

Fantasy football is a game of inches, luck and irrational confidence. Proceed with caution, trust your gut and remember.

[Kevin Pulsifer]

Side effects of listening to this podcast.

[Quentin]

May include spontaneous victory dances, mal trash talking, and a belief that your sleeper.

[Kevin Pulsifer]

Pick is better than everyone else's.

[Quentin]

Take the facts of fantasy football seriously, but consult your feelings before making any lineup changes.

[Liz Loza]

You didn't see that coming.

[Quentin]

All right, Liz, let's start with the player who's provided a really enjoyable experience for fantasy managers thus far and may help you win your league.

[Liz Loza]

Well done. Q. Well, it is Drake May. Everyone who has rostered him has got to be happy because he is fantasy's QB3 overall, averaging 20 fantasy points per game. He ranks second at the position in passing yards per, fourth in passing touchdowns. But he is no statue because he's also managed the third most rushing attempts at the position behind only Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen now. Q. You might be saying, well, what's the problem? And the problem is the matchup potentially against the Buffalo Bills, because it is true that May struggled against the Bills back in Week five. He managed his lowest Fantasy point total of the season, in fact, in that game. But I'm not worried about it. Why? Because we just saw the Bills give up over 280 passing yards and four touchdowns to Joe Burrow. Plus, this game is New England and the division is on the line for the Patriots. So I believe that May has evolved since Week five. His chemistry with his pass catchers is clicking on an even better level right now. Plus, the over under in this game is set at 50 and a half, so we are expecting fireworks. I have him ranked inside my top four at the position.

[Quentin]

I think you're right, Liz. That's pretty bang on. I think the matchup's a little bit juicier than people are giving it credit for. Now, moving along here, someone we have next is someone who's been the definition of a reliable experience, but not might not really give us the results we've all been used to so far this season. What do you got here?

[Liz Loza]

Oh, it's Jonathan Taylor, and I say this as someone who rosters him in a league that is advancing to the playoffs So I am in the conundrum myself. It's interesting. I mean, that's kind of the best thing about my job, right? When I am in a sticky situation, I get to dig in on it and find clarity for myself. Uh, and what I found was that Jonathan Taylor has averaged just 11.7 fantasy points per game since Indianapolis's Week 11. By that's not particularly surprising when you also realize that that average has correlated with three straight losses. And Jonathan Taylor performs, unsurprisingly, much better in wins, but the amount is staggering. 31.4 fantasy points per game for for Taylor when the Colts are winning. Just 11.45 fantasy points per game when the Colts are losing. Now, none of this bodes well as we head into a Week 15 matchup where the Colts are 13 and a half point underdogs at Seattle. So again, they're even on the road. That's not great. And Seattle has allowed the seventh fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. Another blow to the confidence of star starting Jonathan Taylor. Oh wait, there's more. Philip freaking Rivers is expected to be under center. So we are not imagining a lift for this offense, which is probably gonna screw Taylor's efficiency. And yet I cannot sit him. And fantasy managers probably can't either. So what I am imploring you to do is, yeah, if you can sit him, by the way, if you have managed some depth that I am unaware of, girl, go do it. But if you can't, because running back is running back, then find all of the juicy upside you can. Whether you're using your defensive position or your flex position, you gotta sky for the ceiling knowing that Taylor is going to underwhelm in week 15. And by the way, if he doesn't just be pleasantly surprised, I will say.

[Quentin]

Too, I'm like, I think we might be looking at potentially a two star review experience for Jonathan Taylor with that matchup and that like situation that's going on in Indy. Speaking of the number two, let's talk about a wide receiver too, that might had a better experience thus far this season than his wide receiver one counterpart. But quarterback at play? It's a little bit of risky business.

[Liz Loza]

Well done. Well done there. I appreciate the word play. Yes, you've encapsulated the entire Vikings offensive experience in that intro. This is not something we have to rub in the faces of Justin Jefferson investors, but Jordan Addison has emerged as surprisingly the more reliable of the two pass catchers. For the season, Addison has drawn 13 red zone targets. Justin Jefferson just 10 such targets. Also Addison has drawn 17 targets to Jefferson's 10 over the last two weeks and Jefferson, by the way, has had just two catches in back to back games. So Addison is seeing more volume and he is producing more as a result of that. He's actually coming off of a game in which he was the team's leading receiver. Not to mention this giant opportunity he has an in an exploitable matchup versus Dallas, the Cowboys are allowing the second most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Minnesota is currently a five and a half point underdog, so we expect that JJ McCarthy is going to be chasing points. Now, we're not really excited about his efficiency, but that should mean more volume for Addison and volume is always king in fantasy. So I have Addison ranked as a high upside flex in the wide receiver 30 range.

[Quentin]

Yeah, that volume is king with Minnesota and you gotta love that matchup as well. So we'll see how Jordan Addison plays out when the reviews come in. I think that's all we got. Are you ready to kind of hit the couch now, Liz Ooh, I like.

[Liz Loza]

The way you said that. Yes.

[Quentin]

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[Liz Loza]

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[Quentin]

This is a safe place.

[Kevin Pulsifer]

It's a place where we can feel.

[Quentin]

Free sharing our feelings.

[Liz Loza]

Now let's get comfortable on the couch and dive into fantasy therapy, a safe space for all of your fantasy football questions. All right, Producer Q We what are the submissions? What do we have?

[Quentin]

So first up, we got a little bit of a crash out from Kevin from Cleveland.

[Kevin Pulsifer]

Hey Liz, this is Kelvin from Cleveland. Please explain to me why the Falcons refuse to use Bijan as a workhorse running back. They're killing me.

[Liz Loza]

I get it, Kevin. I absolutely understand. I too roster Bijan. I am frustrated by the fact that he has just seven total touchdowns on the season. Now. I think people be like seven. That's like kind of a lot. But he's the RB13 in total touchdowns, which is not what you want from potentially your number one overall pick back in August. I will say that he also had a really tough matchup last week. Seattle had allowed just four rushing scores on the season. So I don't think it's just the usage though that is certainly a part of it. I also think it was the matchup. Hopefully you advance to the playoffs though, because the good news is that the Falcons matchup this week against Tampa Bay is much softer. The Buccaneers have struggled to defend the run as of late. So I am expecting a bounce back for you and I on Thursday night.

[Quentin]

I might have to play the villain role a little bit here cause I gotta play Bijan in the playoffs. So I'm actually hoping that he's out top 20 of RVs. I'm very much against Kevin this time. I'm sorry, I gotta look out for.

[Liz Loza]

We don't need that energy here. Move on.

[Quentin]

That's right. All right, well let's move on then to next up we've got Matt Aragon who is looking for help and this is a little bit of a dicey situation here. We got okay, he's the number one seed and he's needing Daniel Jones replacement for the playoffs. And his options are JJ McCarthy, Tyler Schuck or Shedeur Sanders.

[Liz Loza]

Oh gosh, this is messy. I am proud of you Matt for getting to the playoffs and we know that Daniel Jones is out for the season. So we're going to take this week by week. We're going to stream. I think we have to look at the matchups for each of these players this week. In week 15 it is between JJ McCarthy who has a great matchup against Dallas and Tyler Schuck who has more rush upside against Carolina. Now I believe that Chuck earlier in the season managed around 18 fantasy points when he played the Panthers.

McCarthy though could deal cuz he has better weapons. I have them back to back in my rankings essentially. But I do think after seeing Shucks rushing potential on full display in week 14, that is the direction that I am leaning and I really hope it works out for you.

[Quentin]

Yeah Matt of Aragon, we are doing our best to send positive vibes your way. And speaking of positive vibes, let's end a little bit more upbeat here. Liz. Nick is going to call in to celebrate a big win.

[Kevin Pulsifer]

Liz Loza what's up? It's Nick in Boise, Idaho. I am in the playoffs and I can thank Michael Wilson for that. That guy just went off for me.

[Liz Loza]

Yay. I love this for you Nick and also I love that you use my first and last name that I find that so endearing when people do it. I also love shout out to Boise, Idaho. Hump in Hannah is one of my favorite spots when I am in Boise. Believe it or not. I've been there a couple of times. Anyway, Michael Wilson, I know a little reveal. Magnifico if you will. Michael Wilson was one of my favorite players coming out of Stanford. I love that he has gotten this opportunity to shine with MHJ sideline. In fact, a little stats to back up those feelings, if you will. Michael Wilson has cleared 100 receiving yards in every single contest this season in which MHJ has been out. Mhj by the way, let me check my notes. Oh, zero games of a hundred or more receiving yards. So keep an eye obviously on the injury reports. But congratulations. Let's keep the good times rolling. Maybe even at Hump and Hannah's.

[Quentin]

Oh, little Michael Wilson at Hump and Hannah. Sounds like a good time to me. All right, well I think that's all we've got for fantasy therapy. And as always, make sure to call and leave us a voicemail at 914-348-1893. And Liz, when do we check those voicemails one more time?

[Liz Loza]

We check them on Monday, but call whenever you like.

Today we're bringing on someone who is a living, breathing sports database. He's a content researcher here at espn. In fact, you've probably seen him on FF now, stumping the castmates with weekly trivia questions. He has a calculator brain as well as a heart of gold. Please welcome to the show Mr. Kevin Pulsifer.

[Kevin Pulsifer]

Hi, Liz. Happy to be here. Longtime listener, first time caller. But I gotta say, I'm running out of fantasy trivia questions for FF now to the end of the year.

[Liz Loza]

This is good because maybe by the time I'm back on set in Bristol, which I think is just in two weeks, I'm there in week 16. Oh my gosh, maybe that's sooner and I should buy a ticket anyway. Maybe by then the questions will be easier and I can actually, actually get one right.

[Kevin Pulsifer]

I'll keep that in mind. We'll, we'll keep going.

[Liz Loza]

Thank you. Thank you for giving me a solid. All right, so instead of looking too much into the future, let's look at the Right now, It is week 15, it is the fantasy playoffs, and obviously we're shifting strategies a little bit right now. Can you talk about what you personally do as we head into the last few weeks of the fantasy season?

[Kevin Pulsifer]

Yeah. So the benches on fantasy teams and playoffs should look drastically different than they do on draft day. When you're doing your draft, you want some, some rookie wide receivers, some younger guys who you hope might pan out throughout the year, some of those stable guys like Romeo Dobbs who might just be able to fill in on a bye week because you know you're going to have to deal with that as the season goes on, along with injuries. But now that you're in the final couple weeks, it's, it's now or nothing. Like, you don't want to hold somebody in case something happens in a week or two. You don't want them to hopefully get a little bit more of a target share moving forward. You want backup running backs, you want extra defenses, you want to play matchups ahead of time. Just one example, like I there's a couple lineups where I've got the Bills on my bench right now. The Bills defense, they're only 45% rostered and they're facing the Patriots this week. There's no way I'm playing them right now, but they get the Browns in week 16 and I don't want to have to fight everybody else on waivers for the Bills defense next week overnight, when I could just get them now for free and just put them on my bench. Things like that. You want to be planning for what you're going to need to do in the future weeks. You want the backup running backs in case somebody gets hurt. You want the extra defenses and play with that last minute upside because if you got here, you have a good enough lineup to compete and you just need to make sure that all your, all your holes are filled out on the corners.

[Liz Loza]

Okay, so what about though, like I roster Jonathan Taylor in a league in which I have made the playoffs but I did not clinch a first round bye. I largely because of his dip in production. I don't think that that's going to change over the course of the season. But also I don't feel comfortable enough starting like Kyle Menungay, for example, ahead of Jonathan Taylor. So who are some of those guys that aren't so wild, like Chimmery, D dk for example, but like actually could be a flex.

[Kevin Pulsifer]

I think you could still have one or two spots on your bench for guys like that Jamari, dk, Darius Slayton, little bit of foreshadowing there. Guys who, if you think you need like the 20 point, the 30 point upside, if maybe your one o' clock players don't go off or your early slate players don't go off, you can have a little bit of room for that because like you said, Jonathan Taylor's probably not going to put up those 2030 point games that you've been getting for most of the year, but you don't want to hold on to somebody who's just going to kind of fill in the gaps there. You're not benching Taylor. We only have two weeks left. You make that decision now. You know he's going to be in your lineup. So maybe have a couple guys that you want there for upside and then you can play it out as the week goes on. And in some of those leagues where maybe you had Jonathan Taylor and you were coasting into a playoff spot whether it was a buy or not, maybe somebody dropped Mike Evans after he was hurt and out for most of the season.

[Liz Loza]

Perfect example.

[Kevin Pulsifer]

I have him on my ir and if you, even if he doesn't come back this week against Atlanta on the Thursday night, he's back in week 16, back in week 17. And all of a sudden you've got a guy that you can put in your flex and feel like he's going to be a real starter for you.

[Liz Loza]

I love that advice. I think it's very cogent. You also are someone who in addition to having feelings, as you've expressed love to work with the numbers. I mean you're a researcher so is there a stat that you think managers tend to overhype, particularly in the playoffs?

[Kevin Pulsifer]

When I saw this question, I gave it a lot of thought and I kept coming back to the same answer for each one. Every stat can be overhyped if it doesn't have the proper context. And there's just a couple examples here that I've got. Yards per route run is something that people like to use to qualify receivers as good or bad. And in general, I think that stat is great. If you look at minimum of 40 targets for this season, the top nine names Jackson Smith and Jigba Puka. CD Lamb, Drake London, George Pickens, Amon Ra Diggs, Rashee Rice, Nico Collins. That is a list of some of the top receivers in the league. But 40 targets isn't that big of that small of a qualifier. You've got a lot of those part time players in there and Luther Burden's number 10. And when we were sitting there after five or six weeks, Luther Burton was actually number three and everybody was like, oh, Luther Burton's going to come out of the buy. He's going to have the post buy rookie bump. We're going to start seeing more out of him. Ben Johnson's got to use him more. But if you actually look at the context, over 40% of his yards came on one flea flicker against the Dallas Cowboys. And I remember that play, watching it on red zone and just being like, that's a really cool play, but it's also a trick play. Dallas was caught off guard. Most receivers in the NFL could have made that play. And that play is one of the main reasons why he's popping in a yards per outrun stat because he was only a part time player they were using, using him for gadgety reasons. And a lot of times when you see these guys go from smaller usage to bigger usage, the yards per out run, the efficiency doesn't stay there, it drops a little bit, right? Somebody else like Woody Marks, who's kind of a little bit more of a smaller build running back who was splitting time with Nick Job and was actually being pretty efficient with it. And now that Chubb's kind of gotten a little bit less in usage. Marks has seen like 20 touches in three of the last couple four weeks. I think it is. He's on 28 touches against the Chiefs and he looked tired, he looked slow. He even had to pull himself out of the game after one tackle because he was just getting so beat up. And he's not the kind of running back that can handle that kind of workload. So yes, the touches are good, yes, the efficiency was good, but you got to be able to manage both or at least see what the stats for what they are.

[Liz Loza]

Let's flip the script a little bit. So we talked about potentially over hype stats. What about those that are overlooked by fantasy managers?

[Kevin Pulsifer]

One thing that I think fantasy managers don't do enough is look at like median output instead of just like the average or the mean. It can get rid of some of those outliers like we talked about with the Luther Burden example. I remember after, I think it was a couple of weeks ago, people were talking about how Amari D. Mercado for the Cardinals, the running back should be getting more work. People were pulling up his, like his game log page and his football reference page and saying, look at this, he's got like 6.8 career yards per carry on over 100 carries. If not a small sample, he should be getting more work in that backfield. And on the surface, yeah, why wouldn't you give more work to the guy who's, who's ripping off some 30, 40 yard runs? His career average is close to Jamal Charles's career average, but if it sounds a little fishy, it probably is and it requires a little bit more digging out. Of those 120, 130 carries in his career, he only has five that were more than 20 yards. One of them was while they were up 31 in the fourth quarter. One was when they were down 26 in the fourth quarter. One was when they were down 19 in the fourth quarter. One was WHEN they were up 15 in the fourth quarter. And one was on a surprise halfback draw with 12 seconds before halftime when the defense was playing back and they were expecting passing. So every single time that he's had an explosive run that is contributing to that 5 or 6.8 yards per carry, it's only because the game's enhanced. It's a 1% win probability. It's a 99% win probability. Those stats, yes, they help you for fantasy. They absolutely do. And you love them. You want to see all that play. But looking forward, you do still want to say, hey, he's not actually producing most of the time.

[Liz Loza]

And I really do hope that people understand that when we do our work because Kevin absolutely helps me on a weekly basis. So, like when I write my Facts versus Feelings column, I am always trying to quantify those things. A number can represent as close to a reality as possible, but there is always some tweaking to be done. I am interested, Kevin, to hear if there was a stat that most surprised you this season.

[Kevin Pulsifer]

Yeah. So I was actually looking at the the Lions Rams game for head this to this week which 55 and a half point total. Gotta be a lot of scoring play everybody in that game. But it was specifically something that I noticed. Devonte Adams, he has 25 end zone targets this year. Not only is that by far more than Everybody else, only 14 teams have more than 25 end zone targets.

And he has 14 touchdowns on end zone targets this year. Only two teams have more than 14 touchdowns on throws into the end zone. Matthew Stafford and devonte Adams are a perfect connection. There's nobody else in the league that's doing anything like them. And he's as sure a bed for a touchdown as any wide receiver is in fantasy.

[Liz Loza]

And it is working. So you have to take again, I love this, Kevin, the context of the record and how the particular thing you're examining is affecting the holistic environment of the ecosystem rather I guess of the offense.

[Kevin Pulsifer]

Yeah. So Adams has 25 end zone targets. Puka has three. We saw him get his first career game with two receiving touchdowns last week and he made some amazing plays and he gets there on yards after the catch a lot. They give him some handoffs on end arounds and he scores on those. He's obviously still a guy. That's a must start. No doubt about that. But the Rams have the inside track for the one seed. There's no reason for them to start throwing Puka the ball in the end zone more. That is devontae Adams zone. They have a, like you said, they have a plan and it's working so they're not going to change it. So like if I'm making a bet this week that one of them's going to score a touchdown and I'm filling out like maybe a parlay or whatever. I'm, I'm looking there. I'm going to pick Adams over Puka all the time.

[Liz Loza]

No one is sitting devonte Adams or Puka Nakua this week, but we are going to have to make some tough decisions. So which player are you most confident about sitting in week 15?

[Kevin Pulsifer]

So it probably isn't just my jets bias, but it might also be my jets bias. But Breece hall is kind of in that like RV2 flex range. I have many shares of him. And when you're thinking about starting guys in the playoffs, like you said with Jonathan Taylor, you know the output's not going to be there but you got there with him and he's still poss. He's still prone to breaking big plays. He's still just a touchdown away from being usable. There's still enough other good skill players around him that like he can still have a functional day. Breeze hall doesn't have much of that after Tyrod left with the injury last week. Watching that offense just completely crater without him.

I have no confidence in starting resol. Yes, maybe I got there within this year, but I think it was probably more in spite of him than because of him. He only has one game all season of 20 fantasy points and it came against that terrible Bengals defense and he also had a passing touchdown in that game. The Jaguars are a bottom 10 matchup for running backs. They've only allowed one backfield over 100 rushing yards this season and Breeze isn't seeing enough in the receiving game even if they do start trailing. So I don't see enough upside there and there's just as much of a chance of him getting 6 as there is 16 and even 16 isn't going to help you that much.

[Liz Loza]

The fantasy Gods I don't know if I'm going to sit Breeze hall because my other option is Kyle Menong. Whatever. We don't have to talk about my fan. This is but we're going to back to the people who's your favorite start for week 15.

[Kevin Pulsifer]

So I didn't want to give something a little too obvious or like say this, this top 20 guy is going to be a top 20 guy. I was looking at some of everybody's rankings this week and Darius Slayton is outside the top 40 at wide receiver for every single person on ESPN ranking.

[Liz Loza]

That's me.

[Kevin Pulsifer]

It's more of an upside play. Like you said, maybe you need to put somebody in your flex spot who's going to get you that upside because Taylor's not going to produce. He's averaging nearly 13 fantasy points per game in his last three games with Jackson Dart I think people are overreacting to what happened when Jameis Winston was under center. Winston has a history of locking in on one target and oftentimes it's a it's a deep threat like Mike Evans when he was with Tampa and it ended up being Wanda Robinson against Detroit. In that game we saw a couple deep passes and all of a sudden was like that wasn't this supposed to be Darius Slayton's role? But I don't think it's because I don't think they changed Robinson's routes into deeper routes for forever because of that I think Winston just locked in on him and they were able to be successful. Now that Dart's back, I think Slayton is going to be more usable. Like I said, 13 fantasy points in his last three starts with Jackson and I think he's had a couple touchdowns taken away as well. One was on a penalty and one he had in his hands and dropped as he went to the ground. So there was room for even more upside there. And now they get Washington this year, this week, who is one of the worst pass defenses in the league, if not the worst by a long shot.

[Liz Loza]

Do you want to play a game? Kevin?

[Kevin Pulsifer]

I love games.

Hey, Ryan Reynolds here wishing you a.

[Liz Loza]

Very happy half off holiday because right now Mint Mobile is offering you the.

[Kevin Pulsifer]

Gift of 50% off unlimited.

[Quentin]

To be clear, that's half price, not half the service. Mint is still premium unlimited wireless for a great price. So that means a half day.

[Kevin Pulsifer]

Yeah, give it a [e-mail] Switch up.

[Liz Loza]

Front payment of 45 for 3 month Plan A equivalent to $15 per month required new customer offer for first 3 months only. Speed slow after 35 gigabytes of network's busy taxes and fees extra CMIT mobile.com.

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[Liz Loza]

I'm gonna give you two categories or two players, and you are gonna tell me if you like this or that, and we're gonna go for it.

[Kevin Pulsifer]

Okay, let's do it.

[Liz Loza]

All right, these are two fantasy receivers. Which one would you prefer to start in week 15? Adonai Mitchell or John Mechi? This is a Jets question for you.

[Kevin Pulsifer]

I'm going to go with Metchi. Mitchell is much more of a boundary receiver. The Jaguars are much more of a slot funnel, inside funnel. And if we're going to be chucking deep late, I don't think it's going to work out very well. I'd rather get the short PPR catches from Mechi instead of Eddie Mitchell.

[Liz Loza]

Contrarian take. Don't hate it. Bigger betrayal. Edwin Diaz to the Dodgers. Couldn't resist. Or Lane Kiffin to lsu.

[Kevin Pulsifer]

Did I one up both of them with Pete Alonso to the Orioles? That happened like an hour ago. My Mets fandom is in shreds. I don't know what to do with myself anymore.

I'm gonna say Edwin Diaz to the Dodgers, and not just because I'm a Mets fan, but because you knew this was who Lane Kiffin was. So it was unsurprising to me that Kiffin left. Diaz was a surprise.

[Liz Loza]

When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time. Absolutely. More likely to be the fantasy MVP Jameer Gibbs or Jackson Smith and Jigba.

[Kevin Pulsifer]

I'm gonna go with Gibbs here. The Lions are fighting for the playoffs. JSN has had some games where he's not performed, and the Seattle offense is much more prone to just dialing things down when they have a lead. Their defense is good, their run game is solid enough, and he's been 40, 50% of that offense for such a long time that I do still have a little bit of a fear that it's unsustainable. And there's a chance always with receivers, that if they don't catch the touchdowns, they're stuck in the six to eight to 10 points.

[Liz Loza]

Better hang Elphaba or Glinda.

[Kevin Pulsifer]

I Glinda. Whether it's whether what you're she's she's delusional but it's but she have a good time.

[Liz Loza]

Would you have a good time just sitting there praising her non stop? If you don't give her attention, she's gonna flip out. At least alphaba could like ride you on her broomstick.

[Kevin Pulsifer]

I would assume that we'd be out and doing things and not just like literally just sitting and chilling and hanging and talking. Like if it's just a casual hang and whatever then then I'll go with Elphaba.

[Liz Loza]

But I mean you've been full of contrarian take so I'm not surprised. I suppose the fantasy QB you'd rather start in week 15? Jacoby Brissette against the Texans or J.J. mcCarthy against the Cowboys.

[Kevin Pulsifer]

I'll start McCarthy if if I have to roll the dice with one of them. McCarthy can run a little bit. The Cowboys are past defenses. You can still have a little bit. So it's not comfortable by any means, but I'll go McCarthy who would win.

[Liz Loza]

In a hypothetical fight? Darth Vader or Thanos?

[Kevin Pulsifer]

Does Thanos have the Infinity Stone gauntlet? Or how does this work?

[Liz Loza]

I mean, yeah, sure, let's say Darth Vader has his red sword, lightsaber, whatever.

[Kevin Pulsifer]

It'S called.

[Liz Loza]

And Thanos has got his crystals.

[Kevin Pulsifer]

Actually hotter take now Darth Vader because he can. He has control of the Force and can do things from further away. If it was him to hand, it would be Thanos, but Vader can choke him without having to be standing there.

[Liz Loza]

I would love to have control of the Force, but that's for another time.

Thank you so much Kevin for providing all sorts of context and information this episode. It has been a delight to have you. Can you tell everyone where they can find your work and you know how to follow you?

[Kevin Pulsifer]

I suppose so. I'm on Twitter. Impulsivity. Impulsivity with an extra E in the middle. It's not the easiest thing to get through, but you can find all my work on ESPN shows anywhere. Sunday mornings FF now from 10 to 1 I do all the graphics. I do some script writing. I also work on SportsCenter first. Take NFL Live. Basically any show. Not every show, all the time, but all my work can be found out there.

[Liz Loza]

Kevin, you are an absolute delight. Even if I feel like you would ditch me for Glinda.

[Quentin]

That's weird.

[Kevin Pulsifer]

No, not you. No.

Last call.

[Liz Loza]

Today we learned that my Rushing Upside may have been on display at Hump and Hannah's that Elphaba even with that crazy cardigan is apparently a bad hang and that courage is a requirement in fantasy. I hope you play brave and whether you finish first or dead last, please remember that nothing is worse than settling for the middle. Big thanks to Kevin Pulsifer for joining the show and playing along. And as always, to producer Quentin for keeping me honest. Respectfully, be sure to check out my Week 15 edition of Facts vs. Feelings, the column which is currently live on the dot com. And remember, you can leave us a voicemail. You guys are doing such a great job. Please keep it up. The number to call is 914-348-1893. Until next time, may your facts be solid, your feelings be right, and your bus be someone else's problem. Good luck in the playoffs.

[Kevin Pulsifer]

Love you Liz. I'm hoping you like my voice. This Tyrae from Brooklyn. I just wanted to get the number in my phone. I'll call back with a question next week. Love you Liz.

[Quentin]

Oh, double love you Liz. How about that.