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Mike Clay's players to AVOID in your Fantasy Draft | Fantasy Focus 🏈
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Mike Clay's players to AVOID in your Fantasy Draft
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- [00:00]
Mike Clay
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- [00:43]
Daniel Dopp
Hello and welcome into Fantasy Focus. My name is Daniel Dopp alongside Mike Clay. We have a huge show planned for you today. Last show that we just had with field jates was diving into all of the rookies. If you didn't check that out, go back and listen to that. Today, though, Michael, we were talking about players and whether or not they are worth it or if we should be wary of them based on their adp. Also diving into the five hardest players to rank this off season, which I'm really excited to figure out who you are struggling the most to be able to rank. And we're going to take a train, a ride on the hype train to figure out where we're at, if people are properly rated, overly rated, or underly rated. But first, Excuse me. First and foremost, Michael Clay. How are you? I've barely seen you this offseason, only a few times, so it's great to be able to see your face. How you doing, buddy?
- [01:26]
Mike Clay
Yeah, I'm. I'm pretty good, Daniel. You know, nothing going on at all. You know, whether it's in life or in the football world, you know, just. Just hanging out, chilling. I'm. I'm actually at work right now because some of us just keep, you know, cruising right through in the off season and keeping to work. You're at home just kind of chilling out with your.
- [01:43]
Daniel Dopp
Wow.
- [01:43]
Mike Clay
I think your pups behind you there. So, you know, some of us just. Some of us keep working, you know, and do projections and rankings and stuff, but, you know, I hope you're enjoying your time off, sir.
- [01:53]
Daniel Dopp
Yeah, time off, please. I'm doing the same show that you're doing right now. I would love to be in the office with you. However, given the setups that we have, I'm going to be doing it from home. So hopefully if I have bad takes, it's because it's a bad connection. That's why you must have not heard me correctly, is what I'm gonna say. You know, just.
- [02:08]
Mike Clay
Right, Right. Yeah.
- [02:08]
Daniel Dopp
Dive into that. All right. But we're gonna have a lot. We've been.
- [02:11]
Mike Clay
We have been. We have been drafting a lot together. Right. We're doing a ton of these drafts. So we kind of know. Know who we like, who we don't like. So it's gonna be fun to kind of talk through some of these names.
- [02:21]
Daniel Dopp
Yeah, we are deep into it right now. One thing that I do want to mention, at least in this first topic, when we're talking about if players are worth it or if we need to be wary about drafting them, the ADP that we are going off of is based on June 11th. That's going to change a lot by the time that we get to July and then again to August and then closer to the month of September. So just recognize the ADP that we're talking about. Right. Is right now here in June, very early drafting. But, Mike, let's just start right at the top. Do you mind doing that? Because I feel like there's a handful of names here. You got five people that you brought to the board, and I want to ask you, the very first one, highest rated player that you have here, you bring to the table is whom.
- [02:58]
Mike Clay
Yeah. So. And again, you mentioned the adp. The ones I'm going to reference here, for the most part, are from those drafts that we're doing. We've done, what, 20 or so drafts already. We're just kind of banging them out to a day. And they, you know, with us professionals, you know, in a 10 team, where we could do them in about 20, 25 minutes. So we have a couple more coming up after. After this, actually. So, you know, in this segment, we're going to talk about, are these guys worth it, where they're going in these drafts. And we'll have some yeses, some nos, and we're going to start at the top of the board. Bijan Robinson is the guy who oftentimes is the first overall pick. And I don't know what you think, Daniel, but I think, yes, he is worth that first overall pick. And the reason for that is, yes, Saquon Barkley was the, you know, talk of the town in fantasy football last year at the running back position. But, look, Robinson got off to a bit of a slow start, but after that, when they committed to him as their feature back, he was the number one running back in fantasy from week six on. So it was a big chunk of the season. This is not a small sample. We're talking from week six on, 23.3 touches, 120.9 yards, and 22.8 fantasy points per game. Again, that was number one at the running back position. Had at least 18 touches in all but one game, which was a blowout during that span. Even with the slow star finished top five in basically every category at the running back position. He could catch it, he can run. And this was kind of a surprise last year, even with the coaching change. Atlanta operated the third run heaviest offense in the NFL. This offense is built around him. Maybe they open it up a little bit with Michael Penix, but I don't think to a massive extent. I mean, they're still going to run this offense through Robinson, who's just 23 in his prime entering year three. It all sets up for a huge season.
- [04:38]
Daniel Dopp
Yeah, I'd like to think even if they do open it up a little bit, maybe that could open up some opportunities for Bijan by having defenses have to be able to account for the passing game a little bit more and potentially opening things up with the play action pass that also, if they're able to matriculate the ball down the field more often, Bijan might be in scoring range more often than not, which can also be great for his fantasy value. So I'm a little worried, Mike, and I'll say this as we get later on to the season, don't love running backs that are coming off a 300 carry season. I feel like that's a really high level of carries. But Bijan is young enough and I think his body is still able enough to be able to not have to worry about it if he was like 29 or 30, for example.
- [05:15]
Mike Clay
Yeah, I think that's totally fair. And you can make that same case for Saquon Barkley, of course, who went all the way through the super bowl with the amount of volume. I mean, Robinson did us fantasy players a favor by missing the playoffs. Right. So he was able to relax throughout all those, those playoff months. So thank you to Atlanta for missing the playoffs and keeping this guy fresh. So I think he's in a good spot. By the way, I think I misspoke. Jamar Chase, pretty much a consensus first overall pick. Robinson, the consensus number one, right? Yeah. Off the board in our drafts.
- [05:43]
Daniel Dopp
Yeah. All right. Well, speaking of running backs, Mike, you got another one that you're going to bring to the table here. I think it's a really interesting conversation. Breece hall, this is a guy that we've seen be so many different kinds of a running back in the league this year now gets Justin Fields. We'll talk about him a little later. In the show. But how are you projecting Breece hall and whether or not you think it's worth the investment or not?
- [06:03]
Mike Clay
Yeah, this is a tough call. Unfortunately, based on the news, the changes in the offseason, what we saw last year, I'm gonna have to say not worth it. At his ADP, he's going in the fourth round of our 10 teamers, which isn't, which isn't egregious by any means, but in 12 team leagues across the industry, we're seeing him go in the third round right now. So he is, it is a little rich for me right now. He was 17th in points per game at running back last year. He was eighth and sixth the prior two years. Look, last year, even in what was a down season, he was top five and snaps among running backs. He was top five in catches, routes, targets, yards among running backs. This is second year in a row he's been very busy as a pass catcher, which helps. But the efficiency just was not great for Breeze hall last year. And look, Justin Fields comes in now a quarterback, they're certainly going to run the ball plenty. But Justin Fields could steal some of those touchdowns from him. And then the other part of it is there's a lot of Braylon Allen hype and Allen, he was a mid round pick last year, was fine at times last year, but he was very young. He was very young running back, one of the youngest players in the NFL last season. So if they do evolve and use multiple backs, that's an issue for Bree Hall. I still think he'll be the lead back. I still think 15 plus touches a game are on tap, but I don't know if this is going to be necessarily a high scoring offense and they're certainly not going to do a ton through the air with Justin Fields under center. So I don't know, I think where he's going right now, it's not a guy I found myself drafting very much.
- [07:24]
Daniel Dopp
Yeah, it's a tough situation given the rushing quarterback. Everything that you just mentioned, I did see a report as well and you kind of alluded to us this, that the jets say they want to use all of the running backs that they have right now at their disposal. And even if Breece hall is going to be the guy, even if you just take a handful of carries away from him to go to the other running backs, you also know some carriers are going to go away from him to go to Justin Fields. So it's a tough one to be able to figure out that are at the running back spot even though we've seen him be so unbelievably good. Tough one figuring out where he's going to be. I have him more as an RB2. That's kind of where you're putting them at. Mike is, is a. Yeah, I, I have him.
- [07:58]
Mike Clay
Yeah. Like a fringe RB2 and 10 teamers. Marva mid pack in in a 12 team league, you know we're looking at Marion Hampton, Joe Mixon who just added Nick Chubb to that backfield so that could steal some carries away from him. James Connor, Chuba Hubbard, those kind of guys I feel are all in a bit of a tear and that's all just outside the top 15. So that's kind of where I have hall right now. I hope I'm wrong on that because in the Dynasty league weren't together I do have Breeze hall. He's my top running back so I need him to get back on track this year.
- [08:26]
Daniel Dopp
All right, that's fair. Let's pivot over to a wide receiver. Mike, I want to ask you about one of my favorite wide receivers this year, lad McConkey. I get such great vibes from everything that Lad did as a rookie going here into his second season. Feels like he's primed to take another step. But do you think that he is worth the hype or am I over investing in lad McConkey based on his ad?
- [08:48]
Mike Clay
Yeah, I think you and I may have sniped each other on him a little bit. I've noticed you drafting lad McConkey quite a bit in our drafts. I've been trying to get him as well going in the third round. I think that's right where he should be. It was exceptional last year. Top 20 in catches, yards, touchdowns catch rate, yards per target, yards per outrun. He was a featured player as a great connection with Justin Herbert and I don't expect that to change. Including the playoffs last year, McConkey Five or more catches in eight or nine consecutive games. Does this guy think he's Keenan Allen or something? Because he's certainly producing almost at that level. He certainly was after a bit of an inconsistent start which isn't a shock for again, a lot of chatter last year was okay. Maybe we're out on the passing game here because with Greg Roman and Jim Harbaugh they're going to run the ball a ton. Well game script adjusted. They were the ninth pass heaviest offense in the NFL last season. So not to mention that, you know, look they, they did add at wide receiver but it's Nothing that really worries me with McConkey. Trey Harris we think will probably compete with Mike Williams and Quentin Johnson on the outside. McConkey should be pretty safe. That be that primary short range and slot target, so. And the offense, obviously with Justin Herbert should be pretty good. So I'm all in on McConkey. I'm with you. I was probably. My initial ranks, I was probably a hair too low, but I've rightfully adjusted him. I have him 12th on my board. I don't know where you are, Daniel, but definitely like him where he's going right now.
- [10:08]
Daniel Dopp
Yeah, I have him inside my top 15. I think I might have him around 12 as well. I have him ahead of guys like Garrett Wilson because I just feel like that quarterback situation, right. Like there are a handful of wide receivers in that spot that I think are really good wide receivers, but given the fact that he's got Justin Herbert throwing in the football, kind of gave him a little bit of an edge for me, given where he's going. So I expect him to continue really high floor, I think, as a wide receiver. Can't, can't wait to see what he does here in year two. And I want to see if he can add a high ceiling to that as well because I think he's a really effective floor guy. But can he get to those like 25 point games that we can see someone like Amon Ra get to or is he going to be more of that, like, you know, like a Jarvis Landry type guy that just gets a lot of volume. So pumped to be able to see that. All right. Another wide receiver that you and I have talked about a bunch. When we originally ranked Rasheed Rice, when the rankings first came out, we weren't sure if there was going to be a suspension or not. Actually, as of right now, June 11, we're still not sure if there's going to be suspension, although it kind of feels like at this point we're thinking there's not going to be on Rashee Mike, what does that mean for the way that you're projecting him and whether or not with this uncertainty, you think it's worth the investment in drafts?
- [11:12]
Mike Clay
Yeah. So there's two things here. There's the LCL recovery, the injury that knocked him out for most of last season, and then the potential suspension, which at this point looks like it might not come until 2026. So I'm not really worried about either of those things. It looks like he's healthy right now. He should be 100. The injury thing is behind us, the suspension thing is something you can consider. But again, like you said initially we ranked him kind of low because you're like man, but the, the injury is tough. Is he going to be a full go? They added some player, you know, some pass catchers, a wide receiver. They bring back Marquis Brown, of course. Xavier Worthy emerged last year, Juju's back. They draft Jalen Royals, you know, Travis Kelsey's there, there's a lot of, a lot of mounts there. But then you know, as the reports were more positive and more positive, he slowly just work him up your board. And then when you're like, okay, we're not really worried about a suspension, maybe one game, maybe there's some low risk there. And then you're not worried about the injury, then you have to look back to what he did last year or even since he's, since he's emerged as a full time player in this offense. Nine regular season games since taking on a substantial role during his rookie season, nineteen and a half fantasy points per game during that stretch and if you look at his three full games last year, 36% target share, that's 10.7 per game, 21.6 fantasy points per game, at at least 17 in every game. So will he be at that level, Danielle? I don't think so because of all those mouths they have to feed in this offense. But still a past heavy offense with Patrick Mahomes who always produces, you know, he's always finishes at least top 10 in yards and passing touchdowns even though they've taken a step back offensively the last couple of years. But everything sets up for a huge year. So you're telling me you can get Rasheed Rice right now and our 10 teamers in the fourth round? Yes, I definitely think he is worth that investment.
- [12:54]
Daniel Dopp
I agree with some Rasheed Rice this year. I think him and Xavier Worthy both have a really big seasons potentially ahead of them if there was an odd man out. I think at this point we'll talk about this more as we get closer to the season. But I think Travis Kelce is going to be more that guy shifting into that like third pass catcher rule rather than being one of those top two targets for Mahomes because Rashid was basically that safety valve underneath. It kind of turned into what Travis Kelce was for a long time when he was healthy there during his rookie season. So yeah, and obviously we saw something look fantastic.
- [13:23]
Mike Clay
Yeah, I'm glad you said that because we saw that early last year when you know, if you look at Rasheed Rice's three full games. Travis Kelsey wasn't tar targeted very much, so he's the one that I've actually been taking targets away from in a lot of cases. I did move Xavier Worthy down a little bit. I was very high on him coming into the offseason because of the concerns with Rice. But then again the draft and then you, you know Rice is healthy and you resign Hollywood Brown. It's like somebody has to lose here. So I did, I did bump Worthy down a little bit, but I think that this offense could bounce back to what we saw a couple of years ago this year. So I, I have Rishi rice right now 15th. I have Xavier Worthy at 23rd. So I think both of those guys, where they're going, are fine investments. Love that.
- [14:03]
Daniel Dopp
All right, let's talk about one more player here before we take a break. We already kind of mentioned him and it's Justin Fields. Mike, there are so many quarterbacks. If you don't get one of those early rushing quarterbacks at the top of the draft and you still want to get a guy that uses his legs, you could wait a fair number of rounds and grab Justin Fields. We've seen him put together a number of 20 plus point games. Starting as a quarterback may not look great from an NFL perspective, but for us in fantasy hasn't always been bad. Do you think that can continue here in New York or are you a little bit more wary of Justin Fields as a full time starter in the QB1 spot?
- [14:37]
Mike Clay
Well, look here, you know, I like to be Mr. Negativity and Buzz Killington, but I'm gonna have to keep this optimistic. Right. I, you know, I think I was a little worried about Breeze hall, but everyone else, I'm feeling good at at where they're going right now in draft. So 13th round of our 10 teamers for Justin Fields. The only reason I haven't drafted him yet is because my game plan has generally been to take one of the big four at quarterback. You know, of course Allen Daniels, Lamar and Jalen Hurts. I generally draft one of those four guys, but again, if I miss out, I am happy to wait and take a shot. Late on Justin fields. Last year, six starts with Pittsburgh, he was, he averaged 18.9 fantasy points per game. That would have been eighth over the full season. Didn't do much through the air and that's really the thing about these running quarterbacks. He only had five passing touchdowns and 1100 yards during them six games, but was top five in carries, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. He actually Led quarterbacks with five rushing touchdowns during weeks one through six. His first three seasons in the NFL was top five a quarterback in rushing yards. Despite a lot of missed time, he was either benched or he was hurt, whatever it was. So this guy is one of the, you know, we talk about difference makers with their legs at the quarterback position. Fields is at or near the top of that list for sure. So that's going to be enough that as long as he's a starter and he should be for most of this season, he's going to be in our Quarterback 1 discussion. QB8, QB9, QB11 somewhere in that range, maybe even higher if he's playing well. So I think in the 13th round, absolutely a guy you should be targeting. Yeah.
- [16:02]
Daniel Dopp
If I don't get one of those early round quarterbacks, Mike I found myself waiting quite a bit at the position and then usually trying to double up. I don't know if you find yourself doing that or if you still like the single quarterback spot, but I don't mind taking a guy like Dak and Justin Fields or Bo Nix and Justin Fields to be able to see if I can capitalize on some big games and, and if they both turn out to be great starting quarterbacks, then I either have a great trade piece or worst case scenario, like, you know, I've just got good depth on my bench if I need it.
- [16:27]
Mike Clay
So.
- [16:28]
Daniel Dopp
Going to be really interesting though to figure out how Justin Fields turns out as a full time starter here for the New York jets in 2025. When I'm back, we're going to dive into Mike Clay's five hardest players to rank heading into 2025. Stick around, we'll see you on the other side.
- [16:43]
Mike Clay
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- [17:12]
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- [18:19]
Mike Clay
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- [18:19]
Christian McCaffrey
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- [18:35]
Mike Clay
Are you feeling more fulfilled now that you're back to work on August 15th? No, I need a vacation. See the movie that critics are saying is an awesome look at that crowd pleasing, fist pumping all out brawl of a film. You're right about that.
- [18:55]
Unknown
They're coming after our family.
- [18:58]
Mike Clay
Go fix this. Oh my. Nobody 2 rated R holding in theaters August 15th.
- [19:10]
Daniel Dopp
Back here on Fantasy Focus alongside Mike Clay. My name is Daniel Doppelganger. We are diving into Mike Clay's five hardest players to rank in fantasy football heading into the 2025 NFL season. You can follow him everywhere on social media. IKE clay, NFL I am, Mike, going into this, obviously you do all the projections. You set up the ranks for all of us here at espn and then a lot of times we'll kind of make our own rankings from there, but you give us a nice baseline to be able to work off of. There's obviously a handful of people every year where either the situation is completely different or new coaching staff is going to put him in a new, you know, offensive situation where maybe it's better or worse for him or maybe they go to a team that already has an incumbent or there's just more mouths to feed in that offense. There's at least a handful of guys every year that I'm like, man, I just do not know where to put this guy in my rankings. I want to know from your perspective, the guy that does the projections and does all of this, who are the guys that Stump you the most. I want to start at the end, start at number five and work your way to the most hardest guy. It was for you to rank here in 2025.
- [20:14]
Mike Clay
Well, Daniel, none of them. I mean I just rank them the order they're going to finish next year and then that's it. So there. This is easy work. I don't know why you guys don't do the same thing but why don't.
- [20:24]
Daniel Dopp
You guys just rank him in the order they're going to finish in? I don't understand it.
- [20:27]
Mike Clay
I know, I know. I, everyone just over complicates it but that's just what I do. That's my strategy. Yeah. Though look, definitely some, some tricky guys here and a lot of it to your point is just, you know, either it's you know just head scratchers from last year or the situation is, is tricky. We don't know who's going to emerge field for example. So that's where I'm going to start. Number five is Travis etn. Jacksonville again, who is going to be the lead back there? You know they obviously Travis ETN was that guy most of last year but we saw Tank Bigsby emerge as a major rushing threat for them and then Bial Tutin gets drafted in the middle rounds this year and could he, you know, that's a guy that could be a healthy scratch in week one or he could be their lead back in week one. We, we really don't know at this point. Or maybe in week four he emerges as the lead back much like Bucky Irving did last year in Tampa Bay. So ETN's tricky. You know, you look at 22, 2022 and 2023, had over 1400 yards both of those seasons. Actually 20, 23 top three in touches and fantasy points among running backs. The efficiency that year wasn't great and maybe should have been a warning sign because the wheels kind of fell off last year. Career lows across the board efficiency was not great. Again he remember he had those touchdowns in weeks one and two. He seemed like he was fine. Well, he didn't score another touchdown the entire rest of the season. It was, it was rough. So Liam Cohen comes in, he's saying the right things about Travis etn. But the fact is they drafted a, a fourth round running back. Tank Bigsby's gonna have a role as a rusher and even if ETN gets some carries and a lot of passing down work, it might be tricky for him to be a viable, consistent fantasy starter. So for me it's it is tricky to figure out where to put it because you know what, Daniel, maybe Cohen comes in and says, nah, this is our most talented back. He's going to get 17, 18, 19 touches. That's possible. So I've had a hard time pulling the trigger on him in drafts, but the floor here is low as well.
- [22:19]
Daniel Dopp
Yeah, a couple things that are really tough about that that you mentioned, right. With the idea that Liam Cohen coming in obviously most recently with the Bucks. Their offense was just humming last year. So if we can get any of that coming here to Jacksonville, we'd love to be able to see that for this backfield. But I always wonder when you see a new coach come in and they draft a guy at a position where they already have other people and it's one of those, like, is he drafting the guy that he wants? I know we already have those two guys on the field, but like, is this the guy that he wants to be his guy or is he willing to allow these other two the opportunity to see if they can belong first before we, you know, just hand it over to the rookie? So very interesting. And Travis Etienne, fallen late in drafts. I mean, he's just, he's not going early. He is not somebody. If you for some reason want to be able to give that a shot and you want to take a chance on him being the lead guy and you're getting great value, he's going super late, so. But very difficult one to be able to figure out. I agree.
- [23:13]
Mike Clay
All right, number four for me, Daniel. Yeah, number four for me. Roma, Dunze and really the Chicago offense right now because they are, I mean, who. Which offense is more mouths to feed than Chicago right now and young guys too. I mean you have DJ Moore and Romo Dunes on the perimeter. You bring in Luther Bird in the second round in the, in the slot, you have Colton Loveland, who they drafted to go along with Cole commit at tight end. And you have Deandre Swift, who's going to be busy out of the backfield as well. So that is a lot and it makes it tricky for Odunze. You know, he already had a pretty good target share last year. He was 8th among receiver and routes. He was 11th with 13 end zone targets last season. So he had the volume, but the efficiency, the connection with Caleb Williams was not there at single digit Fantasy points in 13 of 17 games and bad touchdown luck. But you know, Caleb is going into year two. You bring in Ben Johnson. Those are the positives for a guy that was the top 10 draft pick last season. So there's, there's positives here. I love the pedigree, love the Coach, quarterback, year two, but the negatives really are, can he get a 25 target share in this offense? I, I, you know, it's, it's kind of hard to find that with all these other mouths to feed. So I'm trying to draft them, but, you know, there's a lot of hype there. He's going in the seventh round. There's a lot of other quality receivers in that area. It, it's tricky because, trust me, I want to put him, like, 12th on my board, but, you know, it might be more, excuse me, more realistic to go, like, 35th. Yeah, yeah.
- [24:37]
Daniel Dopp
He's one of the clear candidates to have a better season in his sophomore year than he did as a rookie. But I wonder. There are two things here, Mike. It's like, is this going to be at the end of the season? Are we just going to look back and be like, obviously the Chicago Bears had two top 20 wide receivers and a top 10 quarterback in a top 50. Like, does Ben Johnson come in and find a way? Because even if they're not winning games as much, if they're losing, they're gonna have to be out there throwing the ball, putting up points on offense anyways. We don't care if it's garbage time or not. You know what I mean? Like, yeah, if you think that Ben Johnson and all of his offensive pedigree is now going to come to this team with a number one overall pick at the quarterback spot, the question to me is, which one of the guys is he going to get involved now? Or it could be that this is just a catastrophic cattle, catastrophic failure, excuse me for us, from fantasy, because there's just too many people to be able to get involved, that there's not, like, one or two guys that we feel consistently are worth that, like wide receiver one or wide receiver two investment. And instead they just sort of fall into that, like, flex range because they have too many guys that are also getting volume. Does that kind of make sense?
- [25:43]
Mike Clay
Yeah, it does. And the bottom line is, how good is Caleb Williams going to be? You know, is he going to make a leap this year? Is he going to be really erratic and all over the place? You know, he had that stretch of good, good games last year, but against the worst defenses in the NFL. You know, this is not gonna, this is not gonna be a walk in the park with their schedule in that division in that conference this year. So there's a lot of Question marks here. And that's why some of these guys are really hard to rank.
- [26:06]
Daniel Dopp
All right, give me your third guy here. We've had a couple of young guys. Talk to me about an old guy.
- [26:12]
Mike Clay
Yeah. About a guy that had me fuming throughout most of last season. And Mark Andrews. Yeah. Falls to eighth in points per game last year. Probably lucky to be there. Had been top five the prior five seasons. So this fall was kind of surprising. His target share fell all the way to 15% last year. And to show you that that was 20th among tight ends, the prior five years was in the 22 to 28% range. So they were all top five at tight end. So it was a big plummet for him. He was 20th at the end of last season in targets among tight ends. Not good. 14th in catches, ninth in yards, but first in touchdowns. And I know it's easy to say, well, that's where they utilize him, that he's going to produce there, but the fact is he was off the charts in terms of his touchdown rate. It's not sustainable. 16.2% of his. His targets were touchdowns last year. His prior career rate was 7.1%. He's always been a really good tight end, but never that touchdown dependent. He's very efficient. But also you have your coach, John Harbaugh talking about Isaiah likely making the Pro bowl next year. He thinks he can be an All Pro or a Pro Bowler. How does that happen if Mark Andrew still has a substantial offensive role? So again, I feel like if you had him last year, you feel very lucky that you were getting all those touchdowns. But that was a career high in touchdowns for Lamar Jackson. You can't expect that every single year, that sort of output. I'm very concerned about this. The good news is he's going in the ninth round of drafts, but he is a tricky one because he's so talented. You expect him to get back to that top five conversation. But if he has bad touchdown or average touchdown luck, he might be tight end 15 or unusable. So he's. He's a tough one for sure.
- [27:47]
Daniel Dopp
Are you drafting him when you go through and do our mock draft project? No, I just want to be honest. I. Yeah, I haven't drafted a single share of Mark Andrews. I think there are other tight ends, based on the way the board is falling and where my tears kind of fall, that I like more at their price point than Mark Andrews.
- [28:01]
Mike Clay
Yeah. And interestingly, like, I think some of the values are ahead of him in the drafts. I've Taken Brock Bowers and Trey McBride as the first tight end off the board. First or second, I've taken Sam Laporta at times. George Kittle might be the best value on the board right now. So I've oftentimes, especially in these 10 team leagues, taken one of those four.
- [28:18]
Daniel Dopp
Yeah, with you on that. All right, let's move ahead. We got a little bit of time left here. Mike Clay, who is your second hardest player to rank here in 2025.
- [28:27]
Mike Clay
Yeah. So we're going to say players here, and I'll keep this brief, but it's the Saints, you know, with that late retirement with Derek Carr, you have Tyler Schuck, a quarterback potentially, or Spencer Rattler, we saw a little bit last year, Jake Hayner, all these guys, I mean, that is the, we'll say generously one of the shakiest quarterback or one of the most unproven or uncertain quarterback rooms in the NFL. But it could be very, very bad when you're relying on, on guys who are not high pedigree quarterbacks. So Chris Olave going in the eighth round, Rashid Shahid in the 12th round is fine. Even Alvin Kamara going in the fifth round. I'm worried, what if this is just a disaster and you have these veteran players? I mean, Kamara is 30 years old now, very reliant on his work in the passing game. You know, Shahid, obviously as a downfield threat, I'll carry the ball a little bit. Maybe that helps him make some place. But probably going to be boom, busting Chris Olave. I mean, he really, he didn't hit his ceiling with Derek Carr. So is he going to do that with Tyler Shuck? I don't necessarily think so. So I have found myself avoiding this situation. I've taken a lava here or there. If he falls, the good news is, Daniel, they're not super expensive. 8th, 12th, 5th. You know, right. 5th round. But last year I loved Camara. I mean, I'm not a guy that drafts older running backs, but he was a, a value in the fourth round. This year he's going in the fifth round. I'm not sure that's enough for me with all the other options at all. These young running backs, I, I can't do it. So I'm very worried about the Saints. I know there's talent here. Shahid and Alavi were very good last year I was with Camara, but I, I'm worried about this situation. This team could really struggle.
- [29:57]
Daniel Dopp
100. I'm totally with you on Camara. I'd Almost rather have all three of those rookies that are kind of right next to him in adp. When you look at Omarion Hampton and RJ Harvey and Quinchan Judkins, I think all three of them I would probably prefer over Alvin Kamara. And I have done the exact same thing that you just talked about. I've drafted a decent amount of crystal lave. But the reason why is because eventually it gets to a point where enough people have passed on him and I get to a spot where it's like, well, shoot, like, he's clearly the best player on the board. Like, I recognize this.
- [30:27]
Mike Clay
Yeah, he's like, on your bench. Yeah, yeah.
- [30:29]
Daniel Dopp
So it's like, all right, I'll take Crystal Lava here for the upside of the player that he is and then hope that the situation can kind of give me something worth working with. All right. Your hardest player to rank in 2025, Michael Lester.
- [30:42]
Mike Clay
All right, cover it. Cover your ears. Feel the eight. It's Marvin Harrison Jr. This is. This is a tricky one because when you take a guy 4th overall in the draft, you expect him to be a featured player, the next NFL superstar, and as a result, a fantasy superstar. And that was not the case for Marvin Harrison. He was misutilized last season. He did not live up to that pedigree and he made this year. You know, maybe they make some changes and he is the next superstar and he's the top five finisher at the position. And that's why you might pounce on him in the fifth round of your 10 team draft. But the problem is last year, in some ways, he had a lot of opportunity, right? He was third in the NFL and end zone targets, he was ninth in air yards. But he also had, you know, zero screen passes, which is very rare for a receiver. They just didn't manufacture touches for him. And he was, he was primarily a deep threat. So he had a low catch rate, a high off target rate. You know, he was eighth area at eight touchdowns. That kind of bailed you out a little bit if you had him in your lineup. But 37th in catches, 30th in yards and fantasy points, it did not work out very well. But I think part of why we were disappointed in him last year was because expectations were just so high. You look at round one wide receivers over the last decade, 43 were picked. He finished 14th in points per game, which isn't bad. He was higher than Devonta Smith, Drake London, Jerry Judy, DJ Moore, DeAndre Hopkins, Jackson Smith, and Jigba. Right. So he you know, it wasn't all bad, but they were definitely did not live up to expectations. So the good news is he's a little cheaper this year than he was last year. So, you know, I'll gladly take a shot on him here or there in the fifth round. But he's tough. He's tough because again, we think he could be a top 10 player, but if it goes like it did last year and he finishes 41st in points per game, we're going to be like two years in a row. We just did it to ourselves and overdrafted this guy. Yeah.
- [32:29]
Daniel Dopp
At least at this point, it feels like I'm drafting him to be, you know, like a low end wide receiver too, or more of a flex. Honestly, you know, in the fifth round, he's probably more of a flex for me than he is a wide receiver too. So hopefully you can get over that, but feels like you're getting good value. I mean, if him and Kyler can put this together, then it feels like you're obviously you got a guy with great pedigree. And we've watched Kyler Murray be able to feed number one wide receivers in his offense before. We saw that with Hollywood Brown for a short period of time and then we saw that with DeAndre Hopkins once he came back from his suspension. So we know that Kyler can do that. Let's just hope that him and Marvin Harrison Jr. Can get on track because he's one of those guys that I.
- [33:05]
Mike Clay
Would love to be able to see.
- [33:06]
Daniel Dopp
Take that second year lead for sure this year. All right, when we come back, we're going to have more from Mike Clay. Stick around. We'll see you guys in just a moment.
- [33:16]
Unknown
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- [34:16]
Mike Clay
Exhale.
- [34:16]
Unknown
Feel your body relax, and let go.
- [34:19]
Mike Clay
Of whatever you're carrying today.
- [34:22]
Unknown
Well, I'm letting go of the worry that I wouldn't get my new contacts in time for this class. I got them delivered free from 1-800-contacts. Oh, my gosh. They're so fast. And breathe. Oh, sorry. I almost couldn't breathe when I saw the discount they gave me on my first order. Oh, sorry. Namaste. Visit 1-800contacts.com today to save on your first order.
- [34:42]
Mike Clay
1-800-Contacts.
- [34:49]
Daniel Dopp
Back here on Fantasy focus. My name is Daniel Dopp alongside Mike Clay. You can follow us both on social media. Iclay NFL for Mike Clay. My name is danieldopp everywhere on social media.
- [34:58]
Mike Clay
Media.
- [34:59]
Daniel Dopp
And we are going to dive into the hype meter. Mike Clay, are things properly rated? Are they underrated? Are they overrated? We got a handful of things to bring to the table today. I got a list from our producers, and I want to start with a wide receiver that is not the one we talked about earlier. We mentioned one chiefs wide receiver in Rasheed Rice. I want to talk to you about Xavier worthy now that we've kind of gotten to this point on Rasheed Rice. When you look at Xavier worthy in the way that he's being drafted, do you think that he is properly rated, overly rated, or underrated?
- [35:29]
Mike Clay
Yeah. So a little bit of a speed round here. We're up against the clock for our. Our mock draft, and then we got a mock draft in five minutes. Let's speed round here. DV or worthy. I'm gonna say a little under hyped. I've been drafting him quite a bit. I think there's room for him and Rasheed Rice in that offense. So under hyped for Xavier worthy.
- [35:46]
Daniel Dopp
All right, well, speaking of things that get hot quickly, what about air fryers?
- [35:50]
Mike Clay
Air fryers, I think they're appropriately hyped because they're like a. Like a. Like a cult thing everyone kind of loves. And if you have one, you talk about it, you tell everyone all about it. So. And I do have one, and I love it very much, but it's the appropriate amount of hype.
- [36:03]
Daniel Dopp
I think that's fair. If you have an air fryer, you've almost definitely said to someone, oh, you know what my favorite thing to do in an air fryer is?
- [36:09]
Mike Clay
Yes.
- [36:09]
Daniel Dopp
It's just like we've all said it before.
- [36:12]
Mike Clay
Guilty. Guilty. I've done it. I've done it.
- [36:15]
Daniel Dopp
All right, let's Talk about running back two on his own team. Najee Harris went to the Chargers now with Jim Harbaugh finally left the Steelers offense and then they drafted Omarion Hampton, 22nd pick of the first round. How are you feeling about Najee?
- [36:29]
Mike Clay
Yeah, a little overhyped. I mean, he's not super expensive. He's going in the 12th round of our 10 team leagues, but in industry, 12 teamers, I've seen him go in the ninth round pretty consistently. It's too much for me. Omarion Hampton was a first round pick. We know those guys get the rock a ton. Harris's best case scenario is to hold a slight edge in carries. We know he's not very effective in the passing game. There's a real reason Jalen Warren was so busy in Pittsburgh. So I don't see how Harris is a weekly starter in fantasy, barring a Hampton injury or the fact that Hampton is just not good. And that's a long shot. Those first round running backs are rarely not good and they generally get the Rock a lot. So no thanks. Over. What are we saying? Overhyped it is for Harris.
- [37:08]
Daniel Dopp
Overhyped on this one. All right, what about. Speaking of slow and thick, what about deep dish pizza? I'm trying to find a way to put these two together. I don't know how to compare deep dish.
- [37:20]
Mike Clay
That wasn't your best work. That one wasn't good. You've done better work. I'll. I'll say appropriately because I love pizza, so I don't want to say anything bad about pizza, but I'm a. I'm generally a New York style guy. I've thin crust, you know, I tried them all. Yeah, I mean, there's other style now that's even thinner crust. Right? It's like super thin. That's like almost paper, which I'm not a huge fan of. But look, I'll eat deep Dutch pizza. I'll eat New York style, Neapolitan, whatever it is. New Haven style, obviously that's local to us, is great. So yeah, I love them all. But I will say appropriately, appropriately rated.
- [37:54]
Daniel Dopp
All right, that's fair. For what it's worth, Detroit style pizza is my favorite. Have that cheese come over to the edge.
- [37:58]
Mike Clay
That's good too.
- [37:59]
Daniel Dopp
Really nice, crispy crust.
- [38:00]
Mike Clay
All right, I want one more player.
- [38:03]
Daniel Dopp
Yeah, yeah, all pizza sounds good. I won't say no to any pizza. Another player pushing potentially for QB1 off the board this year when you're going into fantasy drafts. Jaden Daniels, after an unbelievable rookie season. Mike Clay. How are you feeling about his height meter?
- [38:17]
Mike Clay
Yeah. And I have to say appropriately, I would love to say under that he's underrated. But the fact is he's being drafted with those big, the other big three quarterback or the, we'll call him the big four with Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. I think Joe Burrows a step below just because of the lack of rushing. But those, those four you could pick in any order. I'm fine with any order. I think Jayden Daniels has a great chance to be the number one scoring quarterback this year and he has such a high ceiling. 24 plus points in eight games last year including his last five in a row in the regular season. Fast moving offense. They threw it more than you realized last year. Improved supporting cast with Tunsil at left tackle, Debo Samuel at wide receiver. I love Jaden this year.
- [38:57]
Daniel Dopp
Yeah, he's fantastic. If I can draft him, I absolutely will. Would love to get one of those early quarterbacks this year. When I'm doing drafts, just try to figure out like the right spot. I don't want to overdraft them but if they can come to me at the right spot in the draft, I'm all in on grabbing one of those early QB1s and just setting that position. All right, Mike Clay, anything coming up for this off season that we need to know about before we get out of here? Because you and I got a mock draft we got to get to.
- [39:19]
Mike Clay
Yes, lots of stuff. It's, it's all out there. We now have, look, look. We have player projections. Since I've been at espn, we've had player projections in the game for the full season and then week one throughout the off season. Now they are there for all 18 weeks of the season. Once you draft, you can see them. You can scroll ahead. We're going to add new features there to be able to utilize those. So there and there. But you know we're going to do pods, we're going to do, you know, working on articles. The magazine is going to be on newsstand soon so it's all out there.
- [39:46]
Daniel Dopp
Awesome. Love it. From Mike Clay. My name is Daniel Dopp. Go check out last week's episode with Phil Jades if you want to listen to some rookies. I will be back in the future with both Liz Loza and Stefania Bell diving into their areas of expertise. Don't forget to love each other, be kind to yourself and we'll see you guys in the future.
- [40:07]
Mike Clay
You've seen the headlines, heard the debates. The three point ball has created a.
- [40:11]
Daniel Dopp
Monotonous rhythm to the game.
- [40:13]
Mike Clay
Has the three pointer ruined basketball? And how did we get here? The rise of the three point shot can be partially traced to an eccentric Kansas genius named Martin Manley, whose story didn't turn out quite the way he imagined. I decided I wanted to have one.
- [40:28]
Daniel Dopp
Of the most organized goodbyes in history.
- [40:30]
Mike Clay
30 for 30 podcast presents Chasing Basketball Heaven. Available now wherever you get your podcasts.