Fantasy Focus Football: “Running Backs You Can TRUST in Week 5”

Podcast Date: October 2, 2025
Hosts: Field Yates, Daniel Dopp, Mike Clay (Stephania Bell not present in main discussion)
Episode Overview:
The crew dives into actionable fantasy advice and analysis ahead of Week 5, with a particular focus on running backs you can depend on. They cover injury updates, key backfield situations in flux, critical Thursday Night Football implications, and go deep into the stats, matchups, and projections for several running backs. They finish with fun segments like The Real Deal pizza challenge, deep league dart throws, and Mike Clay's crucial Shadow Report (WR/CB matchups).

Main Themes & Episode Purpose

• Evaluating running backs in shaky and newly emerging backfields as we approach Week 5
• Injury fallout and new opportunities impacting fantasy start/sit decisions
• Previewing Thursday Night Football with major personnel changes
• Strategic advice on player pickups, pivots, and statistical trends
• Utilizing advanced stats—like target share, yards per carry, EPA—for deeper league analysis
• Listening for Mike’s critical Shadow Report to adjust receiver expectations

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Cardinals Backfield Shakeup: Trey Benson Injury Fallout

[03:28]

• Trey Benson out 4–6 weeks after arthroscopic knee surgery. Remains a “prime IR candidate,” but he should return this season.
• Daniel Dopp: “Trey Benson is a priority IR candidate... if you have someone else just sort of been rotating through.”
• Mike Clay: Projects a timeshare between Michael Carter & Amari Demercado; expects Carter to be the “lead rusher, probably have an edge at the goal line” but Demercado sees 8+ carries and significant passing game work.
• “I think Carter will be the lead rusher... Demercado, change of pace rusher could still get eight carries or so and also be more involved in the passing game. I don't think that this is something I want to invest much into in fantasy. However, I have no issue throwing them both on your bench and then just kind of seeing how it plays out.” —Mike Clay [05:36]
• Strong caution: neither is a slam-dunk start, but stash-worthy.

Michael Carter vs. Demercado: Who’s the Better Week 5 Start?

[06:03]–[08:55]

• Both are in the low-end flex discussion; Mike & Field have Carter a bit higher.
• Carter’s historical pass-catching role now flip-flopped—he’ll likely handle more early downs.
• Neither is preferred, but “if you’re desperate, it’s fine to throw a dart.”

Ashton Jeanty: Trust Him After a Breakout?

[09:07]

• “Sunday was a virtuoso performance from Ashton Jeanty... but matchup not quite as soft as last week,” —Field Yates
• Colts have been decent in some advanced metrics, but are allowing 5+ yards/carry.
• Jeanty safely ranked in top 20 RBs for the week by all hosts, but “he’s not inside the top 10”—as Mike notes, the TD-heavy game masks inconsistent target and efficiency profile.
• “He might not score [many more] receiving TDs the rest of the season... We need more, we need better or it’s not going to be consistent.” —Mike Clay [10:56]

Tight End Check-In: Brock Bowers vs. Tyler Warren

[11:41]–[14:22]

• Field proposes a debate: “Who would you rather have for the rest of the season, Brock Bowers or Tyler Warren?”
• Both have nearly identical routes run, targets, catches per game, and target share so far.
• Mike: “Tyler Warren has clearly proven to be the best value at tight end by 10,000 miles in the first quarter of the season.” [17:25]
• General tight end landscape still uninspiring outside the very top.

Dolphins Attack Minus Tyreek; Is Waddle a Lock?

[17:58]–[19:41]

• With Tyreek Hill out, Jalen Waddle becomes a clear No. 1—guaranteed WR2 value with volume, but the matchup is tough and secondary options are risky.
• Darren Waller (at TE) a possible beneficiary: “...worth adding on waivers and could be second in line for targets in this Miami offense.”—Mike Clay [20:19], especially as Panthers have been bad vs. TEs.

Saquon Barkley: Realistic Expectations Going Forward

[22:44]–[29:23]

• Daniel Dopp highlights “historical regression” after Saquon’s monster 2024; his touches and volume are still elite, but efficiency way down (yards/carry from 5.8 to 3.1).
• “...This is what you get when you go from RB1 to RB12. I don’t want to say that’s a huge negative,” —Daniel Dopp [25:28]
• Barkley remains safe RB1, but don’t expect as many ceiling games.
• Mike Clay: “The rushing efficiency I wouldn’t have predicted—3.1 yards per carry—that will fix itself. He’s too good for that... All in all, a return to earth to an extent, not surprising.” [28:57]

Giants Pass-Catchers/Affects of Malik Nabers’ Absence

[30:22]–[32:44]

• Wondale Robinson the best bet for a “weekly starter in PPR.”
• Cam Skattebo (RB) emerges as a strong start, with 25 rush attempts last week; all hosts have him as RB9–RB10 for Week 5.
• Giants-Saints projected as a close matchup—volume could be limited again.

Running Back Start/Sit Lightning Round

[35:28]–[39:56]

• Woody Marks vs. Ravens: Trending up, flex/low RB2-worthy, especially in PPR, as injuries have made the Ravens defense the most generous to RBs.
  • “If you're running back playing 70% (of snaps), that's like, we're talking good RB2... I'd be fine with 58–60 in that range as long as he's at least splitting the carries, maybe like the 1A in the carry department. But also the passing game work's huge for him.” —Mike Clay [37:08]
• Quinshon Judkins (Browns): Has moved firmly into must-start territory after two big games, showing value in both running and passing game. Mike and Daniel both have him in their top 10 RBs for the week.

Jets Backfield Without Braelon Allen

[41:41]

• Breece Hall “might be entrenched as your RB2 rest of season”—his goal-line value rises with Allen on IR; Isaiah Davis the next man up for those in deep leagues.
• “...Breece Hall is a baller. He is so good.”—Field Yates [42:08]

Shadow Report: Key WR/CB Upgrades & Downgrades

[46:45]–[55:10] (host: Mike Clay)

WR Upgrades

• Michael Pittman (vs. Raiders): “Great matchup... one of my favorite [targets], he was this year’s Courtland Sutton.”—Mike Clay [47:06]
• Giants WRs vs. Saints: Saints quietly among the worst in advanced pass defense metrics—bump for Wondale Robinson, Darius Slayton.
• Garrett Wilson (Jets) vs. Cowboys: “Most fantasy points allowed to both X and Z receiver spots... If anyone blows up, it’ll be Garrett Wilson.”—Mike Clay [49:30]

WR Downgrades

• A.J. Brown (vs. Patrick Surtain II): “Tough spot... 14 fantasy points still impressive against Surtain.” [50:52]
• Courtland Sutton (vs. Quinyon Mitchell): “Eagles have been good vs. the pass, tough assignment here for Sutton.”
• George Pickens (vs. Sauce Gardner): Must start him still, but expect regression.
• Dolphins WRs (vs. Panthers): Carolina has allowed only one WR (Diggs) over 11 points all year.
• Browns WRs (vs. Vikings): Avoid, even Judy. Minnesota a major pass-game suppressor so far.

Notable Data (from the segment):

• EPA explained: “Expected Points Added”—a per-play efficiency stat to identify true defensive strengths and weaknesses [47:36–48:12].

Thursday Night Football Preview: 49ers at Rams

[57:39]–[63:15]

• 49ers: Ravaged by injuries (no Purdy, no Kittle, no Aiyuk, no Jennings, no Piersol). Only Christian McCaffrey is a trustworthy start; in deep desperation, DeMarcus Robinson or Kendrick Bourne could see volume but outlook grim.
• Rams: All systems go. “Rams give us very straightforward answers for fantasy”—start Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Devante Adams, no hesitation. Matthew Stafford is a deep-league streaming option.
• Kyren Williams is a clear lead back but Blake Corum seeing a bit more work—still, “nothing too massive” to worry for Kyren drafters.
• Rams D/ST: A “streaming” defense, especially vs. shorthanded Niners. Mike Clay: “I’m running them into the ground.” [59:39]

Fun and Noteworthy Segments

“The Real Deal”—Little Caesars Pizza Challenge

[44:12]

• Hosts pick a sub-60% rostered player; if he scores ≥15 pts, listeners get a pizza promo code. This week: Jackson Dart (QB, Saints: “projected over 16.1 pts. Week 5”).
• “My pizza confidence: we have a shot at pizza on Monday!” —Mike Clay [45:40]

Deep League Darts: Raheem Sanders Monopoly Fund (Touchdown Lottery)

[63:54]

• Each host selects a <0.5% rostered player to score a TD; winner claims “Monopoly money.”
  • Picks: Xavier Hutchinson (Field), Jalen Hyatt (Mike), Greg Dortch (Daniel), Khalif Raymond (Producers) [all <0.5% rostered].

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Daniel Dopp, on Saquon Barkley:
  “This is what you get when you go from RB1 to RB12. I don't want to say that that's a huge negative thing, but like, yeah, that’s probably appropriate regression based on the historical context of this volume.” [25:28]
• Mike Clay, on clarity and humility in fantasy:
  “Sometimes the best thing you do in fantasy analysis or when setting your lineup is admit you don’t know something... Just accept what you don’t know and make the best decision.” [07:40]
• Field Yates, on Breece Hall:
  “Breece Hall is a baller. He is so good. This guy is super talented. One of the 10 most talented running backs in the entire NFL right now.” [42:08]
• Mike Clay, on value tight ends:
  “Tyler Warren has clearly proven to be the best value at tight end by 10,000 miles in the first quarter of the season.” [17:25]
• Daniel Dopp, on Giants RB Cam Skattebo:
  “Watching this kid run the football... holy smokes, I had no idea we had a battering ram at running back.” [35:03]

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Cardinals Backfield Analysis – [03:28]–[08:55]
• Ashton Jeanty RB Outlook – [09:07]–[11:41]
• TE Comparison (Bowers vs. Warren) – [11:41]–[14:22]
• Dolphins Pass Game Outlook – [17:58]–[22:17]
• Saquon Barkley Regression Discussion – [22:44]–[29:23]
• Giants/Saints Matchup and Cam Skattebo – [30:22]–[35:28]
• RB Start/Sit Lightning Round – [35:28]–[39:56]
• Jets Backfield/Breece Hall – [41:41]–[43:22]
• Shadow Report: WR/CB Matchups – [46:45]–[55:10]
• TNF 49ers-Rams Preview – [57:39]–[63:15]
• Deep League Darts/Monopoly Fund – [63:54]–[66:41]

Final Takeaways

• Several backfields are in flux—don’t force confidence where there shouldn’t be any; monitor splits (Cardinals, Giants, Browns, Dolphins).
• Don’t overreact to early-season inefficiency, but be open to: RB2s and committee “risers” (Marks, Demercado, Judkins, Skattebo).
• Rams D/ST, Garrett Wilson, and Michael Pittman are key “plays of the week”; Wondale Robinson also an intriguing PPR flex with increased usage.
• Barkley and Jeanty belong in starting lineups, but expectations should be RB7–RB14, not top 3.
• Stay flexible: Injuries and opportunities are rapidly shifting value at RB, TE, and D/ST.
• Check Mike Clay’s Shadow Report for crucial WR/CB matchup edges before setting your lineup.

Tune in Friday for more updates and Week 5 wrap-ups from the Fantasy Focus crew!