Undervalued Players to Look Out for in your Fantasy Football Draft!

Summary

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Fantasy Focus Football — Episode Summary

Podcast: Fantasy Focus Football
Episode: Undervalued Players to Look Out for in your Fantasy Football Draft!
Date: August 23, 2025
Hosts: Field Yates, Daniel Dopp, Mike Clay, Stephania Bell, Liz Loza

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Episode Overview

In this episode recorded live from the Baja Mar resort, the ESPN Fantasy crew dives into undervalued and breakout players to target in your fantasy football drafts, analyzing winners and losers after the Brian Robinson Jr. trade, debating breakout and bust candidates across positions, and sharing candid banter about poolside escapades, preseason hype, and strategic draft advice.
Theme: Identifying which players are being overlooked, which breakouts have true upside, and which big names may disappoint in 2025 based on early evidence, NFL transactions, and analytic trends.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. San Francisco 49ers/Commanders Running Back Trade Analysis

• Context: 49ers acquire Brian Robinson Jr. from Washington, shaking up depth charts and insurance values.
• Impact on 49ers Backfield:
  • Christian McCaffrey (CMC) remains a top-6 to 8 fantasy pick; workload is steady.
  • Brian Robinson Jr. projects as a spell/goal-line back — minor fantasy impact.
  • Insurance handcuff value for Isaac Guerendo takes a hit; "cut him loose" recommendation if previously rostered.

  “If you’ve taken a late flyer on [Isaac Guerendo]... you can cut him loose.” (Mike, 06:17)

• Impact on Commanders Backfield:
  • Likely 3-way split: Austin Ekeler (safe passing-game floor), Bill Croskey Merritt (young, upside pick), Chris Rodriguez (goal-line/short yardage).
  • Debate: Take the “tried and true” (Ekeler) or swing for upside on breakout/Merritt.

  “Ekeler would be the safest, but I want Croskey Merritt. That’s a guy who could establish himself as the one.” (Mike, 07:08)

  • All agree: Isaac Guerendo and Chris Rodriguez are only waiver-watch candidates, barring injury.
  • Notable rookie comp: Bill Croskey Merritt likened to 2022’s sleeper Pacheco.

  “He reminds me a little bit of Pacheco’s draft stock back in what, like 2022?” (Liz, 11:27)

2. 2025 Fantasy Breakout Candidates

Mike Clay’s Breakout: Ashton Genti (RB, Las Vegas Raiders)

13:10

• High draft capital, projected feature-back role, little competition.
• Stat: Last 8 RBs drafted in top-12 all finished as top-10 fantasy RBs as rookies, even if inefficient.

“He'll be a clear feature back... If you look at the last eight running backs drafted top-12, all were top-10 fantasy RBs as a rookie.” (Mike, 13:20)

Liz Loza’s Breakout: Justin Fields (QB, NY Jets)

16:27

• Cites “Konami code” rushing upside, Tanner Engstrand’s run-focused scheme, historical top-10 fantasy finishes.
• Acknowledges passing concerns but hopeful for best ball or boom weeks.

“He was a top 10 producer as a starter in Chicago... I think he could finish as a top eight quarterback.” (Liz, 16:42)

• Debate among the group: Low passing ceiling could cap consistency.

“He’ll have a month where he carries your squad… but personally, other QBs are smoother sailing.” (Field, 18:47)

Stefania Bell’s Breakout: Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR, Arizona Cardinals)

19:35

• Year 2 candidate, off-season muscle and improved chemistry with Kyler Murray.
• Needs “more creativity from Arizona's offense,” low YAC and no manufactured touches in rookie year.

“They could have easily moved back. It’s the proverbial ‘buy a Ferrari and park it in the garage.’ Don’t do that with Marvin Harrison Jr.” (Field, 21:19)

Daniel Dopp’s Breakout: Rome Odunze (WR, Chicago Bears)

21:30

• Predicts sophomore leap in Ben Johnson's new scheme; potential WR2 value, late-9th round ADP.
• “Set up for a really nice sophomore jump, especially because his ADP is in the very end of the ninth round.” (Daniel, 22:40)

Field Yates’ Breakout: Ladd McConkey (WR, LA Chargers)

23:06

• Cites increased role in aggressive passing offense; projects “baseline of 140 targets.”
• Not threatened by Keenan Allen’s arrival; “best playmaker on their offense — not a conversation.” (Field, 24:04)

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3. Players to Avoid (Busts) in 2025

Mike Clay’s Busts:

26:44–30:13

• Jared Goff (QB, DET): 2024 was Goff’s “peak”; likely regression with OC Ben Johnson gone and O-line concerns.

  “I think we saw his peak, and he returns to earth.” (Mike, 27:24)

• Mark Andrews (TE, BAL): Unsustainable TD rate, low target share.
• Breece Hall (RB, NYJ): Third-round ADP too rich; expects significant RB timeshare.

  “We’re going to see Braylon Allen… and Isaiah Davis… I think he’s going around or two too early.” (Mike, 28:34)

• Garrett Wilson (WR, NYJ): Top 6 in targets every year, but never a fantasy WR1. Consistent volume, low ceiling with Justin Fields.

  “He may finish WR17, 20, but he’s not going to beat that... That is his ceiling.” (Mike, 29:18)

Liz Loza’s Busts:

33:31–36:59

• Colston Loveland (TE, CHI): Too much depth/mouths to feed; ADP doesn’t reflect slow rookie ramp.
• Tyreek Hill (WR, MIA): Volatility, age, surgery, and QB fit concerns.
• Baker Mayfield (QB, TB): Being drafted at “ceiling” (QB6/7), unlikely to repeat career year post-OC change.

  “You’re assuming he can copy and paste a career season... that's awfully optimistic.” (Liz, 35:16)

• Saquon Barkley (RB, PHI): Historic workload, every high-volume RB last 10 years has regressed; can't repeat 484 touches.

  “Every RB over 300 carries and 20 receptions... has regressed… He’s not doing it again.” (Liz, 36:41)

Field Yates’ Busts:

37:50–41:31

• Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC): Still going earlier than peers despite only 4 top-10 weeks in 2024; better value at QB later in drafts.

  “You're having to pay basically full freight on Mahomes when there are really, really good options lower.” (Field, 39:41)

• Joe Mixon (RB, HOU): “Undraftable” until legal clarity.
• DJ Moore (WR, CHI): “Something just feels a little off… not quite to the level of Tyreek/Tua, but not totally connected with Caleb Williams.”
• Jonnu Smith (TE, MIA): Traded, lost sleeper value.

Stefania Bell’s Busts:

43:23–55:18

• Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC) and DJ Moore (WR, CHI): Echoes Field’s rationale; cost too high vs. likely output.
• Travis Kelce (TE, KC): Physical decline, more target competition, possibly not even a top-5 TE now.

  “The physical decline… He's not someone I want to draft in the top five tight ends.” (Stefania, 45:00)

• Kyron Williams (RB, LAR): Overwhelming workload, unsustainable usage rate raises injury risk; sees Rams talking about lightening load but not executing; worries about regression.

  “Every time you were looking at the % of snaps… it was something over 85%. You can't be on the field that much and not risk injury exposure.” (Stefania, 51:41)

Daniel Dopp’s Busts:

55:57–58:45

• Saquon Barkley (RB, PHI) and Travis Kelce (TE, KC): Agrees with above.
• Jerry Jeudy (WR, CLE): #1 WR for Browns but unstable QB situation worries him for playoff reliability.

  “By the time I get into the fantasy playoffs... I don’t want a rookie QB throwing to the guy I’ve been relying on.” (Daniel, 56:49)

• Baker Mayfield (QB, TB): Same as Liz — drafting at ceiling.

  “If I’m drafting him at QB6, I think I’m drafting him at what will be his ceiling.” (Daniel, 57:15)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Mike (on rookie RBs): “All those guys weren’t necessarily efficient… but he was still top 10.” (13:16)
• Liz (on Fields bounceback): “I think the Chicago Bears ruined him and broke him, but I think New York could be his redemption story.” (16:27)
• Stefania (on Marvin Harrison Jr.): “It’s the proverbial ‘buy a Ferrari and park it in the garage’… Don’t do that with Marvin Harrison Jr.” (21:19)
• Field (on Ladd McConkey): “Baseline of 140 targets should be expected for Ladd.” (24:01)
• Liz (on Saquon's regression): “He’s not doing it again. It’s not going to happen… if you’re not comfortable with a regression, then don’t pay for one.” (36:41)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• NFL Trade Breakdown – 05:04 – 11:26
• Breakout Players Roundtable – 13:05 – 26:36
  • Mike: Ashton Genti – 13:10
  • Liz: Justin Fields – 16:27
  • Stefania: Marvin Harrison Jr. – 19:35
  • Daniel: Rome Odunze – 21:30
  • Field: Ladd McConkey – 23:06
• Busts Roundtable – 26:44 – 59:05
  • Mike: Jared Goff, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson – 27:24 – 29:18
  • Liz: Colston Loveland, Tyreek Hill, Saquon Barkley, Baker Mayfield – 33:31 – 36:59
  • Field: Mahomes, Mixon, Moore – 37:50 – 41:31
  • Stefania: Mahomes, Kelce, Kyron Williams – 43:23 – 55:18
  • Daniel: Saquon, Kelce, Jerry Jeudy, Mayfield – 55:57 – 58:45

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Tone and Style

• Lively, analytical, humorous, at times self-deprecating; engaging audience with relatable banter and advanced stats.
• “If you’re counting on a breakout, you don’t mind spending that extra draft capital.” (Liz, 26:16)
• “Finally dominant and [the Lions] have two unbelievable running backs… Then Goff is just really tough.” (Daniel, 27:58)
• “Would rather be a year too early or a year too late... I’d rather be a year too early.” (Daniel, 45:54)

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Summary Takeaways

• RB insurance handcuffs are slipping in value amid committees and backfield trades.
• Several highly-drafted players—Saquon, Kelce, Mahomes—may be more likely to disappoint at ADP due to age, volume regression, or team context.
• Breakout potential is strong for rookies and sophomores tied to opportunity or innovative play-calling (e.g. Ashton Genti, Marvin Harrison Jr., Ladd McConkey, Rome Odunze).
• Don’t reach for perceived safety: ceiling and consistency is key, especially with QBs and RBs.

Tune in to tomorrow’s show for more positional debates and preseason insights!

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Transcript

[A]

Gatorade is the number one proven electrolyte blend designed to hydrate better than water so you can lose more sweat and raise your game. Gatorade is it in you?

[B]

Hello and welcome into Fantasy Focus Football alongside Mike Clay, Liz Loza, Beal Jakes and Stefania Bell. My name is Daniel Dobb. Thank you so much for being here with us today at the beautiful Baja Mar resort. Shout out to both Baja Mar and the Hyatt for letting us do this and BDG Global for everything they have done to be able to help put this unbelievable event together. Guys, we did the beach combine and a bunch of awesome stuff today. We've had an incredible start to this weekend so far. I just want to ask, what's been your favorite thing so far? Mike, when you're looking back at the.

[C]

Weekend, my favorite thing is that. What time is it right now? It's 3:08 local time.

[B]

Local time? Yep.

[C]

Like 58 minutes ago, I was sleeping on a beach chair with the drink next to me, bathing suit on, jumped up, came up here, got dressed and here I am on the stage. So that's the best part for sure is just spending a lot of time.

[D]

At least you got dressed today.

[C]

Yeah, I did. I put clothes on today. I didn't.

[B]

You know, we all appreciate that. It was very jarring last, like last night to be able to watch you take your shirt off in the middle of.

[C]

Listen, we've seen enough of you taking your shirt off like it's, it's someone else had to do it. For once. It's always you.

[A]

Okay, maybe not. But sure.

[B]

But sure.

[C]

Well, I decided I was pumped.

[B]

I saw you participate in the beach compine today and you came out unscathed.

[A]

Yeah, one piece field is still. It's a good thing right now. My favorite part of the day was, you know, maybe like A little over 58 minutes ago, I had some peace and quiet in my room. I was able to, you know, big trade today in the NFL. We're going to dive into that. Of course. I had plenty of time to get all the rankings updated. Got my personal projections accounted for as well. I made a trade in a dynasty league. So despite the fact that it's an 88 degree oasis that we are spending a few days in, I've been grinding the tape and just like, you know, making sure that the operation, the show goes on at ESPN Fantasy. You're welcome, America.

[C]

It sounds, sounds like he's doing vacation wrong. That's if you ask me.

[E]

It's not vacation, Mike. It's work.

[C]

What?

[A]

I'm not sure.

[C]

I. I don't think it was until.

[A]

French words. Vacation. Not familiar with that. That term. Is that like a shoe?

[B]

Don't know what that is. Yeah, yeah. I feel. I mean. Liz, Stefania, either of you have the thing that stand out so far throughout the weekend?

[E]

I enjoyed talking Pokemon with Jamal Williams last night.

[B]

Yes, please.

[E]

He was wearing an Eevee hat. Well, yeah, I'm going to name drop. There's.

[A]

That's.

[E]

That's the whole point of one of the many points of the weekend. But he was wearing an Eevee hat and we talk Pokemon. I'm a fire type. That will probably surprise absolutely no one on this set.

[B]

For what it's worth, that was where mine was at too. Mama DOP was so excited when she found out Jamal Williams was going to be here.

[A]

So what language are you guys speaking right now?

[B]

You don't know Pokemon.

[E]

Just wait. Your Eevee is a type of Pokemon?

[B]

There's many before the evolution happens, correct? Yeah. So there's.

[E]

I'm going to go get an evolved Pikachu to translate.

[B]

There you go. There you go.

[E]

Eevee's an electric type, right?

[B]

It's a fire type.

[E]

It is a fire type.

[B]

Eevee's a fire type.

[C]

Look, I'm still trying to say Bill Crosby Merritt correctly, so I don't even. I can't get into that stuff right now. I'm focused on that.

[B]

Focus on that. Stefania, what about you?

[D]

Let's see. A lot. I think the ride down the lazy river without upending the floater, the, you know, the tube that you go down in somehow managed to make it all the way around in one piece without going upside down. That was. That was the success of the day. Yeah, but while you guys were all, you know, pretending to be athletes out there at the combine, one of us was also doing some television on the pier. So that was fun.

[B]

Wow.

[A]

Whoa. Excuse me.

[D]

You guys were in the background.

[A]

Local tv?

[D]

No, it was for network. Maybe you've heard of it. ESPN and Disney plus.

[E]

Yeah, Disney plus.

[A]

Yeah. Yeah.

[D]

If you look at my co workers care so much about the things I do.

[E]

That is called A.

[A]

You didn't tell us anything about this.

[B]

That's right. Nice job.

[D]

New show called Vibe Check.

[C]

I know.

[A]

Vibe Check from here.

[D]

I was on Vibe Check from here because where better to get vibes than at Bahamar down in the B.

[B]

That's a great point.

[D]

We had the combine in the background. It was showcasing everything that was going on while People were selecting their draft order. And then we talked a little fantasy football with Hannah Storm and Courtney Cronin. And It'll be on Disney plus at.

[A]

5Pm oh, let's go.

[E]

That's professional. Look at that plug. Seamless.

[A]

Most importantly, Daniel, unbelievable resort here. The people are off the charts. Huge thanks to the Baja Mar team, the BDG team, for all they've done and taking amazing care of us. Met some awesome people as well. It's been a great weekend. It's been a great weekend.

[B]

And it's only getting started. For what it's worth, we got a couple more days to be able to dive into. A lot of fun with everybody here. All right. But speaking of, even though we're on, like, this pseudo work vacation, the NFL doesn't stop. And we found that out today while we were sitting in a cabana.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Where the 49ers and commanders make a trade.

[A]

To be clear, I was up in my room working.

[B]

Correct.

[A]

You were. That's while the rest of you found out margin hand of the cabana.

[B]

Yes, yes. But Bill McCrosky Merritt, or I think I was going to call him jcm, but everyone calls him Bill.

[A]

Did you just call him McCrosky?

[E]

Merit.

[B]

Bill Crosky Merritt. I think I might have said practicing.

[C]

Is he Irish?

[A]

He's an Irish lad.

[B]

Is a guy that I feel like is going to have some value now after Brian Robinson Jr. Gets traded from the Commanders to the 49ers. Mike, I'm going to ask you just from a projection standpoint, right? We watched Brian Robinson Jr. Transition over to the 49ers. Is that going to impact CMC or any of the other running backs there as well? And what will that mean for the commander's workload at the running back spot?

[C]

Well, first of all, Field did the updates. I thought so. Maybe he should be the one again.

[A]

I'm glad to do this.

[C]

Being the projection.

[A]

Say the word. Yes. Thank you. People know me as the stats guy.

[C]

Yeah. First of all, there's two sides to this, obviously. We'll start with the 49ers. This is the easy, right? Exactly. Very low impact. Christian McCaffrey can handle 55, 60% of the carries and his normal target share and be fine. So we already expected somebody to handle some of the carries out there. It won't be Isaac Arundo now. So if you've taken a late flyer on him as a potential insurance option, you can cut him loose. That's the question I've gotten most so far, actually, is what to do there, you can cut him loose. It should be pretty Clearly, Brian Robinson Jr. As the spellback. Could get some goal line work, but not much. It's really going to be Christian McCaffrey. This was a sixth round pick, so that's that side of it. The other side is Washington. I think out of the gate, three headed attack. And that's not what we want to hear. I think Austin is the guy probably with the safest floor early on because he's going to be involved in passing situations. We'll get some carries. Bill Crosky. Merritt will. He's the flashier guy, the young guy. Most upside, you know, potentially could establish himself as a back within time. And then don't forget about Chris Rodriguez. He'll have a role here. Goal line, short yardage. But if I'm drafting, I guess that's the question. I'm curious where all of you go. Who are you most interested in picking up? For me, I think Eckler would be the safest, but I want Crosky, Merritt. I think that's a guy that could establish himself as the one.

[B]

Yeah, I agree.

[A]

Who's going first on this? You go first.

[B]

I agree 100% with everything that you just said. For what it's worth, like the idea of. I'm trying not to say for what it's worth, but I just did. But when I Look at this 49ers backfield, do you believe that Brian Robinson Jr. Stefania is worth still at it?

[D]

I'm still. I'm a little confused as to why you are so confident that Isaac Garrindo is just out of the picture.

[C]

Because there's only 64 snaps a game. You know, Christian McCaffrey's playing a pretty.

[D]

Sizable chunk of those. McCaffrey.

[C]

Yeah. Well, you don't trade for Robinson. I think to not play at all. I mean, it's still, it's. I mean, it's. I know it's low draft capital, but there's a reason they brought him in. Grindo also hasn't been fully healthy.

[E]

Right. He's been banged up.

[D]

So maybe you're telling me about 49ers and their health. I am well aware of that, but Isaac.

[C]

Well, you asked me a question, Stefan.

[D]

I know, but they're not the same type of player. Brian Robinson is a different type of player than Isaac Garrendo. And Isaac Garrendo filled in capably last year. Yes, I. They get a power back in Brian Robinson, which is something they didn't have, period. That's not really who they had Christian McCaffrey is incredibly versatile, but I just, I just don't totally see Isaac Rando being gone completely.

[B]

Would you still draft him?

[A]

Can I split the Adam a little bit here? I think headline nothing changes for Christian McCaffrey. Still feel extremely confident in him as a top somewhere between 6 and 8 pick. My opinion is that prior to this trade there was a real insurance policy value in Isaac Garendo because he would be the next man up and probably the clear cut next man up like he was late last season for the 49ers now. And I'm sorry to even utter these words. So Ear Muffet, if you're a 49ers fan or you're a Christian McCaffrey drafter, if he gets hurt, rather than it being probably the Isaac Arundo show, it's going to be a committee behind him.

[D]

Which means that no back is a that I buy.

[A]

Okay.

[D]

But that to me is different than.

[E]

Like, well, I also think that Jordan Mason isn't there now and Brian Robinson has a skill set that is closer to Jordan Mason than Isaac Arendo.

[C]

Agreed.

[A]

So.

[C]

And I think that's the point. I just think it means Garendo is undraftable now. There's just even if you need McCaffrey go down, you needed McCaffrey to go down for him to have value. And now even if McCaffrey does go down to your point, it's so demanding.

[D]

That was my question was I don't see Brian Robinson as necessarily being the guy to totally carry the load. So I don't think he offers the same kind of thing. Like Jordan Mason was not a huge pass catching back either. So it's hard to replace a Christian McCaffrey because you're not going to get an apple for an apple there.

[A]

Right. So I think headline again or like winners, losers, winners and losers category from the San Francisco side, I don't think there's any winner. Christian McCaffrey was already an elite option. He stays in elite. I would argue that the fantasy value for Brian Robinson Jr. And Isaac Arenda took a big hit today to the point that I'm with Mike. They're both now in like the late 40s. For me in terms of my running back rankings, where it's interesting is the commanders because we do have an unknown here. Like, I think there's a chance that each week there is a pretty usable fantasy back on the Commander's offense. I just don't know that it's going to be the same one week in and week out. And I think the question that Mike posed is the correct one, is like, who are you rolling the dice on? I'm sure Chris Rodriguez will have some level of a role, but I'm going to put him aside here for a second. Maybe the kind of a role that just annoys you for fantasy purposes. So I think it comes down to a fundamental question, is do you think you take the sort of tried and true Austin Eckler or do you go with the potential breakthrough player in Bill Krosky Merritt. I almost said McCarthy and I want to come over there and I would have pulled your hair or something. My answer is it depends on your roster construction. So like if you went running back, running back in the first two rounds and you got like, I'm just making this up here. You took Bijan at pick two and you got Chase Brown at pick 18 and you feel like, hey, most weeks your flex is going to be a wide receiver. I just need a guy that like, I just need like a safety insurance policy for bye weeks. I'm happy to go with Austin Eckler if you're. You need to like roll the dice a little bit on a running back who could give you some major upside, but also might be a player who plays 15 snaps a game. It's cross key. Merritt.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

So any disagreements?

[B]

No, I'm with you. And it feels like the two guys that we wouldn't be drafting at this point would be Chris Rodriguez and Isaac Garrendo. Those are guys that we would watch on waivers just in case something happened in that backfield.

[E]

But I think Bill Crosby. Merritt has flashed so much during the preseason that his ADP is going to climb. He reminds me a little bit of Isaac Pacheco's draft stock back in what, like 2022? I think there's like a comparable situation there. So I agree with Mike.

[A]

That was one of the comps for, for Bill during the pre draft process. As a matter of fact.

[E]

Watch out for watch.

[A]

I got a question for you guys in the audience. This might be the most important question. I think we've had this offline here. If the options for you is a name like walking around the streets where Jacori and Bill. Why on earth would you go with Bill?

[B]

That's a great question.

[D]

Reliable, consistent.

[E]

I feel like because of Crosby. It sounds like Bill Cosby. Right? Isn't that the joke? Oh, Crosby, Merritt, Crosby, Merritt, Bill Crosby.

[C]

Anyway, do you want to sound like. I think we just like we were talking about this before. We need like a nickname for him so I think we could just call him Bill and everyone will know that who Bill is. Yeah, there's no other Bills.

[B]

I like jcm. I just wanted to call JCM because this is actually. I mean, you know, it's not Bill. It's Bill in. In quotation marks.

[C]

I don't know. Okay, I think we go Bill.

[B]

All right, how about we ask him?

[C]

He said Bill.

[B]

We're really big on saying players names correctly after we found out that Bajan wanted us to say it that way. Tetaroa, obviously his mom does not like saying Tet.

[E]

Cameron versus Cam.

[C]

Exactly.

[E]

I still think Cameron allowed.

[A]

Yeah, I think Cam is still in play there. Yeah.

[B]

All right, well, speaking of being play, we want to be able to find a couple of guys that we can play that are maybe going to break out for fantasy.

[A]

That was great.

[B]

I'm trying field, but we're going to talk breakouts. Yesterday we talked sleepers. Today we're talking breakouts. Mike, I'm going to start with you. Like I did yesterday. If you had one breakout for 20, 25, who's the one player that you think.

[A]

Just one.

[B]

Just one breakout.

[C]

So many options here, man.

[B]

I mean, if you had prepared for the show, you would have brought just.

[C]

I mean, I don't want to. Like, we did this yesterday too. We did like a big breakout player. And you did a league winner.

[B]

You did a league winner.

[C]

This is a tough call. I could go so many directions. I'm going to go Ashton, Genty. I mean, I'll take the layup. Someone has to do it. Someone has to take the layup. And that's what I did in the column. Everyone went through. No one took. No one took Ash and Genti. Someone had to do it. So I'll be that guy. I'll take the easy. The easy dunk. The easy layup here. Look, Genty is being drafted in the first round for a reason. This is going to be a clear feature back in this Las Vegas backfield. Very little competition there. And one of my favorite stats of the off season that I dug up is if you look at these guys, stats guy. Now I'm a stats guy. I'm following your lead. I see it. I'm working on it. But if you look back at the last eight running backs who were selected in the top 12 of the draft, all eight were top 10 fantasy running backs as a rookie. So when you hear people say, well, that guy's never played it down, why would I go that direction? How about the last eight running backs that were in his shoes. I mean it. And all those guys weren't necessarily efficient. You think about like a Trent Richardson, for example. They weren't the most efficient, efficient guys, but he was still top 10 kids.

[A]

In the audience right now.

[C]

You got to give us a warning.

[B]

Trigger, warning, mention Trent Richardson.

[A]

So.

[E]

So that's a good point though, because a lot of people also don't love the offense that Ashton Genti is attached to. Lots of question marks around it. Historically, the Raiders probably not the most prolific in terms of numbers and production, but we know it can be done because Saquon Barkley himself, attached to a middling Giants offense, was the RV1 overall his rookie season back in 2018. So there is data to prove that Genti can do it last eight.

[C]

He can make it nine in a row.

[B]

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[B]

Liz, if we put you on the spot, who's your breakout for 2025?

[E]

There are obviously a lot of wide receivers. I know you are taking one and I don't want to anyone's pick here. I don't want to offend anyone and.

[A]

Not I'm going last for that reason I am going last. Please.

[E]

I am a longtime Justin Fields apologist so this should not be too much of a surprise. I think the Chicago Bears ruined him and broke him, but I think New York could be his redemption story. I love you don't like the vibes, huh? Vibes are a little nervous. What?

[A]

I'll tell you why in a minute.

[C]

Okay.

[E]

Okay. So Tanner Angstrom, love the history there. I love that he's very clearly going to focus on the run. If you're watching the preseason, there's not much dimension to the offense. But the Konami code that Fields presents with his legs, I think is the key here. He was a top 10 producer as the starter, top 10 at the position producer as a starter in Chicago both in 2022 and 2023. Top five in rush attempts, rushing yards in both of those seasons. So I think that he could finish as a. I mean, there's a lot of room here. I think he could finish as like a top eight quarterback. I do think he will finish inside the top 15 regardless.

[A]

So I would.

[E]

I am hopeful, I am optimistic for a breakout here.

[A]

Before you jump in, Konami code. Pokemon as well.

[B]

I was just going to ask you. You know, so many useless facts, Field, but do you know what the Konami code is?

[A]

Is it Pokemon?

[B]

No. Field, I'm so disappointed.

[C]

He's only like a couple years younger than us.

[B]

Did you not grow up with Nintendo? Did you ever have a Nintendo in your house?

[A]

I was too busy grinding tape.

[B]

Brutal. Brutal. All right, we'll talk about this after the show then. What. How do you feel? I mean, why are you nervous about the idea of Justin Fields?

[E]

The toe, the vibes, the health.

[A]

Now we're with the toe? No, the toes. But I think, I think that's largely behind him. I just. This offense just might be like super low functioning this year and he'll have enough rushing upside. I just think that you're going to have a lot of games where Justin Fields disappoints to like the tune of eleven and a half fantasy points.

[E]

Perhaps some people have any optimism about the reunion with him and Garrett Wilson as former Buckeyes.

[A]

So I just think, I think we have enough evidence now.

[C]

Listen, I'll save my thoughts for the bus segment, guys.

[A]

I. I just think like at some point, like draft pedigree has to get thrown out the window. I just don't think Justin Fields is a high level football player as a passer. Like, I just think he's a mediocre passing quarterback.

[E]

But we, I mean, Blake Bortles did produce.

[D]

No, no, no.

[A]

I was saying.

[B]

I'm just saying, you know, he doesn't need to use his arm in order to be good for fantasy.

[A]

Yeah, but I mean, to have a steadier. I Think to be a steadier ship. He does.

[E]

So there's going to be like, like bomb weeks and two, boom, he might.

[A]

Have a month where he carries your squad. I just think personally there are a few other guys that are going around Justin Fields that I think can get there more consistently. Justin Herbert, Caleb Williams, Drake May, J.J. mcCarthy that I think like the, to me it's just like, you know, smooth sailing like the waters here at Bahamar as opposed to where Justin Fields is.

[E]

For what it's worth, I did move Caleb Williams ahead of Justin Fields in my rankings, especially after last weekend's preseason showing. So I am feeling like if there is one quarterback, one Chicago Bears stained quarterback, it is Caleb Williams that I am standing behind.

[B]

Just maybe feels a little bit better in a best ball league where you get just to have all the good games right from that perspective.

[D]

But even there that means you're counting on a number of them.

[B]

That's true. That's true. Stefania, if you were counting on someone to break out this year, who would it be?

[D]

You're just getting so good with the segment.

[B]

I'm trying, I'm trying here.

[D]

That transition, I know, it's, it's incredible. Marvin Harrison Jr. Because if not now, when? Right? I mean it's only his second year, right. But we had high expectations for last year and I think that this year maybe is, you know, he takes that step forward. A lot of off season work between him and Kyler Murray. You hope that that helps with the chemistry he has. They always talk about adding muscle. Like yeah, you had pounds, you had pounds. But he is stronger. He's definitely, at least.

[B]

How come when you said when you add pounds you looked at me? Why did you look directly at me.

[D]

When you said that you can add some pounds, you fine with adding pounds?

[B]

Oh please, you can't.

[D]

There's some people you can't look at when you talk about adding pounds.

[B]

That's true. Okay.

[D]

In any case, he's going to hopefully have much better chemistry with Kyler Murray after they kind of started to get it together last year. And the reason for the comment about the weight is the physicality. You know, he's not been hugely physical. He just could out play everyone in college and make the catches. He had a very low yards after the catch last year too. Less than three yards after the catch average. You'd like to see him improve that this year maybe. Better separation, better routes, I think.

[A]

And Mike has this set. You can share it first and I'll sort of give you the the dovetailing point to it.

[C]

Yeah, no, no, zero design screens as a rookie. So they were not manufacturing touches for him. It was a lot of just downfield.

[A]

Like it was almost all downfield. Yeah. And why that's part of the reason why the yards after the catch was so low is it was just basically like, hey, let's just try to put the biscuit in the basket 20 yards downfield and hope that works. We need to see a whole lot more creativity from that coaching staff on offense in Arizona. You know, again, this is the. And I'll continue to say this until he breaks out fourth overall pick in the draft last year in which they could have easily moved back and you know, it's. It's the proverbial buy a Ferrari and park it in the garage and leave it there. Don't do that with Marvin Harrison Jr.

[B]

I'm with you.

[A]

I hope they don't.

[B]

Yeah, I hope they don't as well. My guy that I'm going to talk about did not go quite as high as Marvin Harrison Jr. But I'm to talk about an NFC north wide receiver. You guys know I love my NFC north teams and it's Roma Dun. Roma Dun. Honestly, vibes are for me and I realize that you got to take everything with a grain of salt when you're looking at training camp. Right. But in this new Ben Johnson offense, the idea of Roma Dun and everything that they talked about him being when they brought him in with Caleb Williams, I believe that Roma Dun is set up to be in a spot where he can be not only the number two pass catcher in this offense and by the way, the number two pass catcher in a Ben Johnson led offense can absolutely, absolutely smash. If things get underway the way they're supposed to. It might take a little bit.

[D]

You say that as if that's happened.

[B]

I've seen it happen before for a number of years in Detroit. And so even though it might take a few weeks to be able to get things really like smoothly moving in the Chicago Bears offense, I think Roma Dunze is set up for a really nice sophomore jump rather than a sophomore slump in his second year. And especially because his ADP is in the very end of the ninth round, he doesn't cost a lot of so for you to grab as like a wide receiver three or a flex play. Love me some Rome.

[C]

Yeah, there was a little bit of me throughout the offseason. It was a little nervous just because of Luther Burden. And what happens if he steps in and he becomes like Keenan Allen sure was last year for Caleb Williams, but it looks like it's a ways off. He might not even be the number three receiver to open the season at this point. So that gives me a little bit more. You know, there's more targets available to a Dunes and I think that's huge in this offense. So. So I do feel better about his breakout potential.

[A]

So Daniel just mentioned sometimes the number two option and a passing offense could be good enough to be a breakout player. So I'm going. Alan Lazard.

[C]

Stop. Get out.

[A]

I love it. What? No, that's an old joke.

[C]

Although he did say, he did say this is the best receiver room he's ever been a part of, so.

[B]

Really?

[A]

Yeah, I. I have a hard time.

[B]

Cannot wait to be catching passes from.

[A]

Justin Brown is going there. So Mike started this off with Ashton Genty. You're saying to yourself like a guy who's going sixth overall. Exact. A breakout. And I think that it's important to establish that breakouts, it's a totally subjective term. Right. Like how you define it could be very different from Stefania, Liz, Mike, Daniel. I think a guy who we saw the second half of last season kind of established himself as a borderline top 10 or 12 wide receiver is ready to graduate into the area where he might end up being like a top seven wide receiver by the end of the season. That's Lad B. Conkey from the Chargers. Yeah, the Chargers did this offseason make a couple of investments. Second round pick Trey Harris. Of course they brought Keenan Allen back.

[B]

I think Kevin, like preseason darling Keandre Lambert Smith.

[A]

Keandre Lambert Smith in the fifth round. I liked him in draft process too. I just think this is like clearly the best playmaker on their offense and it's not even like a conversation. Lad Bikonki was incredible down the stretch last year. Like I think a baseline of 140 targets should be expected for Ladd. I'm not concerned about Keenan taking away slot snaps. Like come on, Keenan Allen was awesome for the Chargers for a long time. If he was that certain to be an Upgrade over lad McConkey, he wouldn't have been out of work until like 10 days ago.

[B]

Sure.

[A]

Like it's going to see the Lad show. They became a much pass heavier and much more aggressive offense in the second half of last season. Labakonki, by the end of this year we could be talking about him. Not quite in the territory of the like the. The Jefferson, the Chase, the CD Lambs. But like if he's on the back end of that conversation that currently includes like the Nico Collins and the Brian Thomas Juniors wouldn't surprise me going into 2026, when you look at this Chargers.

[B]

Offense, I mean outside of the wide receivers, right. It feels like they're going to funnel basically all of their passes there. Their best tight end this year is Tyler Conklin.

[A]

Probably are Will Disley. Yeah, a lot of guys who can't catch a pass more than like three yards down the field and they don't.

[B]

Not that Omarion Hampton isn't a good pass catcher of the backfield, but they don't have like a pass catching specialist that you feel like that guy's going to command a boatload of targets out of the back.

[C]

That's a scheme thing to Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman throughout their entire careers have never thrown to the run to running back. So last year J.K. dobbins did just enough to hang in fantasy. So that gives me. That makes me feel like Hampton will get enough where he's not going to crush you. It's not going to be like Derek Henry where he's like 12 catches. He could probably have 30. So it is a little bit of a limitation of his upside, but not enough that it's really concerning. I think he'll be okay but not great. But anyway, to your point. Yes. Not. It's not going to be a big overall target share to running backs, probably not to tight ends. But receivers will benefit.

[B]

They will benefit. And lad McConkey is certainly number one there.

[D]

He's kind of a, a he's got a slight build, you know, and he's young Lad.

[A]

Yes.

[D]

Yeah. And he's been banged up a little bit in the preseason and wasn't a.

[E]

Lot in 2022 and 2023 of his college career. He was not really a full time player. But yeah, I'm just, I'm a little.

[D]

I think he's being drafted but there.

[A]

He'S a little concerned. I like that. The counter punch.

[E]

I just think his ADP is a little bit more inflated that I would prefer. But I do think, think if you are counting on a breakout you don't mind spending that extra draft capital.

[B]

Is this because he poo pooed your Justin Jeffrey or Justin Fields pick? Is that.

[A]

What if he was. If he was catching passes from Justin Fields?

[B]

Okay, all right, that's fair.

[A]

Liz never forgets.

[B]

All right, well from breakouts to busts then let's talk about a couple of guys that we may be avoiding in fantasy drafts this year. Mike, I'm Gonna start you as well.

[C]

Oh, wow.

[B]

All the Lions. Why you always got to pick on my line?

[C]

One line. Jared Goff, look, I think he's was at his peak last year. I think that even, even great players have peak seasons and we saw career high in YPA last year. Completion percentage and fantasy finish. He was seventh last year. That's the best points per game finish of his entire career. In fact the only season in which he has finished in the top 10. And this is his 10th season. He's been around for a while. So when you come off a season like that and there's been some changes here. I know the pass catchers are similar but the interior offensive line has some issues. Ben Johnson's obviously gone, so I think we saw his peak and he returns third.

[A]

I thought you were just needling Daniel for a second. You just went in on it.

[C]

Oh no. Yeah, I'm serious about that one.

[B]

There's nothing wrong with that.

[A]

I understand wrong with that.

[C]

It's your quarterback.

[B]

I know. But here's the thing. I love John. I'll defend him by saying he's been a top 10 quarterback three straight seasons. However.

[A]

Oh, take that for data, Mike.

[B]

However, not points for game. We're not worried about points per game. I'm worried about longevity and health and that means he's on the field for 17 games. But the problem is Jared Goff's bad games are like unstartably, like horrifically bad.

[A]

This is because way too pragmatic of analysis.

[B]

I know, I know. I'm trying really hard.

[A]

40 year Detroit Lions, you guys are.

[B]

Finally dominant and they, they have two unbelievable running backs. So when he doesn't have to do that. Yeah, then Jared Goff is just really tough.

[C]

And to be QB17 or lower nine times last season. So he had a couple of spike games or when are you going to fire him up off the bench? You're just not going to do it. So out on him. Are we going through all the positions?

[B]

Yeah, go ahead and yeah, I'll go.

[C]

To tight end next. Mark Andrews, just unsustainable touchdown rate first and touchdowns, 20th in targets last season. Hard to follow that for another season. And then I saved the other two for last because they are the pass catcher and running back for your Justin Fields. New York Jets Breeze Hall.

[E]

That's fine.

[C]

Going too high. Third round ADP in 12 team leagues. We're going to see Mark Braylon Allen. There's some Isaiah Davis hype which we saw late last season. Remember they started to face both of those guys into the offense. So I think with his adp, it's just too rich for me. I think he's a rounder to going around or two too early. And then Garrett Wilson. Here's the thing about Garrett Wilson, just.

[B]

Hate all the Jets.

[C]

I'm just hammering away on the Jets. Love Garrett Wilson as a player, but it is a scheme problem here, okay? This guy has been top six in targets all three seasons in the NFL and has not finished in the top 20 in fantasy points per game. Now you're telling me Justin Field, who does not throw the ball very often and average under 200 passing yards per game last season, is going to be his quarterback and now he's going to get into the top 20, the top 15, the top 10. I just don't see how that math works out.

[E]

Don't you have him ranked like wide receiver 17?

[C]

Yeah, but that, I mean, but your track where he's going. No, no. I mean, look, he's going to have a huge target chair and it's going to allow him to hang in the, we'll say fringe. Wide receiver two, early, wide receiver three, conversation. But the problem is where he's going in drafts right now. In 12 team leads, he's going in the fourth round. The guys going around him are better options with a higher ceiling. And that's my main issue with Wilson. He may Finnish wide receiver 17, 20, whatever, whatever it may be, the problem is he's not going to beat that. That is his ceiling in this offense. If you look at all of every game Justin Fields has ever played, 90 plus percent of the snaps they average. Those offenses average 25.8 pass attempts per game. That would have ranked dead last in the NFL last season. And that's not going to change this year. It's just not going to change. So I don't know how he has a path to a full on breakout this season. I think he's going too early. I don't want him. Okay.

[B]

All right. Negative Mike Clay, I was going to say.

[A]

I feel like when Mike makes negative takes, he really digs.

[B]

He dives in.

[C]

That one's personal call. I was high on the jets last year as a team. That did not go well. So now I'm really.

[A]

Mike has like, here's a positive thing. It's like that dude's got sweet swagger. Then it's like, I hate Garrett Wilson. Here's 94 reasons why I'm so mad.

[B]

All right, that's too bad. I accidentally drafted Breeze hall in a league that we're in right now. Over the weekend.

[C]

Yes.

[B]

Accidentally over the weekend. So I'm not super.

[D]

I can't imagine how that happened.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Or margaritas in.

[E]

You had a click?

[B]

I had a couple, couple, couple of those, yeah. All right.

[A]

Well, Liz Loza, that was incredible.

[E]

Thank you.

[A]

No one appreciated that.

[E]

That you did feel that made me smile.

[A]

If you had mic drop then it would have been so epic.

[B]

Liz, I appreciate. Nope. Liz, give us your busts for 2025.

[A]

Yeah.

[D]

You saved yourself close.

[A]

That was close.

[D]

Still avoid Daniel Do.

[B]

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I'm partnering with Abercrombie this season to tell you all about their viral denim. All you need to know is denim should fit like this. My jeans need to check.

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A lot of boxes fit first, trend second.

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$15 per month equivalent required New customer offer first 3 months only then full price plan options available, taxes and fees extra Cementmobile. Com I'm gonna start at the tight end position because I'm not terribly passionate about this bust. It's also when you're talking about busts for like a tight end, welcome to volatility city.

[D]

Right.

[E]

Like it's all a little bit much. I'm a little bit worried about Colston Loveland. I do think I know Stefania talked him up I believe yesterday and I and I wanted I thought I was.

[D]

Appealing to your love.

[C]

Your typical Bears hater. Typical Bears hater.

[D]

And this is what I get back.

[E]

There is a mouths to feed issue here. I am concerned with.

[D]

I addressed that.

[E]

You did. And I don't think you're wrong in that Cole Comet will eventually fade away. But right now there is so much love and hype for Colston Loveland that I don't think people are baking into the ADP the amount of time they're gonna have to wait for it to come to fruition. And so therefore I am out.

[C]

I'm out.

[E]

I am out at wide receiver. I don't mind Tyreek Hill, but I do think that there is some volatility in his vastness of production. Like he's either going to bounce back and it's going to be a top five year or he can finish outside of the top 20. I don't really love the fact that so much of his value is predicated on his skill set as a speedster. He's 31. We've seen some of that recede. He had surgery over the off season and he is reliant on a quarterback that excels in passing passes to the short to intermediate intermediate levels of the field. So all of that is making me not love him in the low end wide receiver one range. I don't hate it, but I do think it's a little bit inflated at quarterback. I think Baker Mayfield also is being drafted at peak value. You're either getting him at like QB6, QB7. You're assuming that with Liam Cohen gone he's going to be Able to copy and paste a career season like he did last year and still throw for another 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns. I think that that's awfully optimistic, especially when you can wait like we talked about yesterday for a bo Knicks for Kyler Murray a little bit later. But ultimately, the player that I want to talk about because everybody loves to get into my DMs about it is Saquon Barkley.

[A]

Whoa, you got people sliding into your DMs.

[E]

I got people sliding all over my DMs, babe.

[B]

Love it.

[A]

You just do a podcast on that.

[E]

This is DMs and my husband just texted me.

[B]

Okay.

[E]

It's like they know he is in Los Angeles, but he is in Los Angeles. But in terms of Saquon Barkley coming.

[A]

Off, just let him to your DMs.

[E]

My husband.

[A]

No Saquon. Wow.

[D]

This is off the brakes different.

[E]

No, of course not. People who are very passionate about Saquon Barkley have. And for good reason. He had a historic 2024. He also touched the ball a historic number of times, 484 total touches. I feel like I say this every single week. He is going third overall. I think it is wild to assume that he can produce that again, especially given that every single running back over the past 10 years who has exceeded 300 carries and 20 receptions, which is way lower than Barkley's touch count, has regressed in terms of yards per carry, yards per touch, and fantasy points per game. He's not doing it again. It's not going to happen. So if you are not comfortable with a regression, then don't pay for one. And if you don't like the upside of the unknown that Mike discussed in Genty, then just don't draft a running back there. Go and go. Go ahead and grab yourself a wide receiver.

[B]

He can still be really good with.

[E]

Regression where he's being drafted 100.

[B]

I am with you.

[E]

This does not mean that he is going to finish RB20, RB50, but he could finish RB15 and that would be a disappointment.

[C]

He is going to be an amazing case study on this because the reason we're still ranking him that high is because of the situation in Philadelphia with that O line and how good that offense is.

[A]

I'm not worried.

[C]

And the talent level, obviously, but that's been there for those other running backs. So it's a. It's. He is going to be a fascinating.

[E]

Case study in mind that you're not worried. Right? Like, I don't think. I don't I don't disrespect anyone who's taking him, but if I'm being asked, who do I think is going to regress and, and I'm going to give you a real name where there is evidence of legitimate, legitimate regression, then that, that's the name I'm going to talk about and not hide behind last year's numbers.

[B]

Fair. All right, Liz Loza. I love it. Coming in strong field. What about your breakout or, excuse me, busts for 20, 25.

[A]

Thank you, Daniel. First of all, it's my favorite category. It's my favorite thing to talk about in fantasy in general because you, like.

[C]

Take up all the negative stuff.

[A]

You just do all this mean things about people. Then you, you get, you get fans all pissed off at you and everything, and it's pretty much no win because if you get them right, people are.

[D]

Pissed off because those guys was easy. Like, it's like, oh, that was.

[A]

If you get it right, they're like, oh, sweet. My, my. Like, this guy who's supposed to be a star stinks. If you get it wrong, then people like, I told you so. You Jackal. Right? Anyways. And Patrick Mahomes, you guys ever heard of him?

[B]

People that call you Jackals?

[A]

Oh, yes, in my DMs, mostly.

[C]

I don't think it's Jackal.

[B]

I don't think so either. Agree with you, Mike.

[A]

We are a family podcast here.

[C]

Exactly.

[D]

Fields professional.

[A]

So Patrick Mahomes is an interesting one. And I talked about this yesterday on the show how ADP is important, but it's not the end all be all. And I acknowledge the players who are incredibly popular, like face of the league and like probably the most popular player on the planet, are going to go higher because some people play fantasy football casually. That being said, once we get past that first five quarterback tier, which, whether it's four or five, I think we all agree that like, like, even if you're not Joe Burrow, tier one, you are Joe Burrow, like just outside of tier one. And he belongs in a cut above the guys like Patrick Mahomes and Bo Nix and Brock Purdy and Kyler Murray, etc. Baker Mayfield, like Patrick Mahomes is not, not going that far behind. Joe Burrow, like Patrick Mahomes is going like right now at the end of the fifth round on espn. You could wait two rounds to get Bo Nix. You can wait four rounds, get Kyler Murray or Brock Purdy. You can, can wait and get BAKER Mayfield like two or three rounds later as well. So Mahomes, who had four games inside the top 10 last year.

[D]

Four?

[C]

Yeah, four.

[A]

Lamar Jackson. Oh, sorry. I thought that was someone reacting to my take. But Mahomes is an interesting one. You're having to pay basically full freight on Patrick Mahomes when there are some really, really good options going a little bit lower than him.

[B]

Two consecutive seasons he has not averaged even 18 fantasy points per game. He has been in the 17 and a half to 17.9.

[A]

And there's reasons for optimism for sure. They're talking all the right about all the right things and they, they think they're going to be more explosive this year. But they might have Rasheed Rice for like buddy, what's up man? They might have him for, you know, half the season. They might have for she Rice another half maybe way gone. So other options here. And this is again, we did these actually a while ago. So Joe Mixon gave me some bad vibes a while ago. Now it's just like undraftable. Yeah. I would not be touching Joe Mixon right now unless we have a more concrete update by the time your draft begins. Like I'm planning for him to be gone for a long, long time. Johnny Smith was the same category. He got traded. So yeah, we got John Believers here and then last one here. This one get back on track a little bit. DJ Moore makes me a little nervous. And Daniel, nice pick by you. Breakout picks.

[D]

We're so simpatico.

[A]

Yeah. Roma Dun. I. I would have. If Daniel had not already snatched Roma Dunze, he would have been on my short list for favorite breakout candidates this year. Something just feels a little off with it's. It's not quite to the level of J. Excuse me, Tyreek Hill and Tua Tunga by Loa doesn't feel totally connected between him and Caleb Williams. I know that he's got 93 or more catches in three of his past four seasons. He probably will lead the Bears in catches this year. Weird year last season. I just have some concern about whether things are going to get on track there between he and Caleb Williams.

[C]

It's usually not a good sign when it feels like his final season with the team like a player's final season with the team before it even starts. And the future is probably Roma Dunes and Luther Burton there. Colson Loveland. So I think we all said a.

[D]

Version of the same thing that by the end of the year we feel feel the flip is coming that Roma Dunes is gonna maybe right away. Yeah. And well by the end of the year. But how long it takes. It may not take very long at all. DJ Moore, also on my. Was on my list as well.

[B]

Field. I guess I feel like I need to ask this question. I mean, you just interrupted your entire thing to say, what's up, buddy? To a guy that walked by. Is it just a guy that you knew from back home, or was it.

[A]

I got lots of friends here. I've had a great time, know a lot of people around here, because there.

[B]

Was a guy that walked by with a set of golf clubs and a full pizza, and it was like, I might want to leave the podcast to go hang out with that guy right now.

[A]

Honestly, my favorite part about doing the show right here is, like, you see people come up and they're like, get their cameras out. You can tell they're excited. They're like, is that like the Backstreet Boys performing, like, taking a break from Vegas? And they're like, wait, who the heck are these people?

[B]

Who are these guys?

[A]

Why am I videotaping them? Right?

[C]

And then they hear us say fantasy football, and they're like, ah, God.

[B]

And for that reason, I'm not TJ Hawkinson.

[A]

Holy crap.

[B]

Please. All right, well, Christina, I mean, sorry, Stefania Bell, obviously, you're up next. Well, you said Backstreet Boy, so I was saying that she looked like Christina Aguilera. I was trying to, like, live in that realm. No.

[C]

Sure, why not?

[D]

I can't sing. I can't carry a tune in a.

[B]

Bucket, but okay, I'm not. I don't know if that's even true, Stefania. We've never done karaoke. Maybe we make that happen here at Baja.

[A]

Did you say a tune in a bucket?

[B]

Yeah. I've never heard that before.

[D]

Expression.

[B]

Okay.

[C]

That's what the kids are saying. Saying these days, maybe. No, no, I wouldn't know.

[D]

So before your time, field.

[C]

That's all I think got yeeted.

[B]

He did. Yes. That is a thing that the kids say.

[C]

I know all the kids.

[B]

There you go.

[C]

That means something. That's word meaning if you were gonna.

[B]

Yeet someone from your fantasy roster.

[C]

So good. Who are the players?

[D]

Daniel's just crushing it with the Segway.

[B]

It's like trying really hard.

[D]

Guys really are. You're appealing to all demos right now.

[B]

That's the point.

[A]

Point.

[B]

Yep. That's the point. So if you're going to pick a couple of people that you want to avoid your four busts in fantasy football.

[D]

This year, I. I think, you know, normally it's fields role to say to define what a bust is, but I feel like I need to come back to it again now because my definition of it. And you say it's your favorite thing to do every year. I think you were being tongue in cheek.

[A]

Yes, I know.

[D]

Let me be very clear. Is my least favorite thing to do every year. Because a lot of people want to base bus on injury. And then I, you know, this is what I do for a living as I'm constantly like, we have a child running away screaming because we're talking about bus advanced.

[B]

That's it.

[D]

But I feel like it's always a negative thing and I just. I just don't like it. And so to me, when I went through this list, it had to be just simply that they were going to perform below expectations. I don't care if it's a little bit or a lot, but where they're being drafted, which you alluded to, like the draft capital is too expensive for. It's too rich for my blood.

[C]

Okay.

[D]

And I find it interesting that field and I had two of the same players. So Patrick Mahomes was one of mine.

[A]

That Princeton educated, brilliant. Stefania Bell agrees with me.

[D]

Educated, brilliant.

[A]

Field D slide through the cracks.

[C]

Don't Worry, that's enough YouTube.

[D]

So who else? Holmes and DJ Moore. For all the reasons that we talked about sticking with the Chiefs offense since I. Travis Kelsey was my tight end bus for the same reason. I know. Like, look, winning at life, right? Clearly winning at life. Out kicked his coverage. Taylor Swift bringing him to new heights.

[E]

GQ spread.

[C]

Look at that.

[A]

Whoa, look at that. You got a mic drop on that.

[C]

Come on.

[A]

Come on. That was great. You are in fuego right now. You guys are on fire like that, that pool behind you.

[D]

Even the resident Swifty sitting up here. But the. But I did watch that podcast. But here's the thing. I think Travis Kelce, let's face it, he's been in the league a long time. He is going to be. I think Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce continue to make the Chiefs a threat in their division, a threat to go to the Super Bowl, a threat in real life football. But in terms of fantasy purposes, you see the decline. With Travis Kelce, there is a little bit of a physical decline. We didn't even know for sure if he was going to continue to play football. So I think he can be solid, but he's not somebody who I'm wanting to draft in the top five tight ends. And I do feel like everybody. It's catching on a little bit, but still, I would rather wait for a tight end to me who's got the upside, the potential of what he could become.

[B]

I was in on this last year for Stefania.

[E]

You were ahead of this one, Daniel. You deserve some recognition for it.

[B]

I do want to say that there is a thing between. No, you deserve. You deserve a recognition as well. No, you didn't overcook. But I think there is something to be said for. You need to be okay with deciding if you would rather be a year too early or a year too late on a player. And I. My mentality is I would rather be a year too early. Last year, my bold prediction was he was not going to finish as a top seven tight end at the position he finishes tight end six from Fantasy Point.

[A]

So you were wrong.

[C]

So I was more why I sent you that dm.

[B]

It's a bold prediction. That's the whole point.

[A]

The thing is that, like, if you want to have a very, very full mailbox of inbox. Inbox of DMS.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

Then you're YouTube. You're too early.

[B]

Travis Kelce. Fewest total fantasy points, fewest points per game, fewest receiving yards and fewest touchdowns since 2015. And that was last year. Yeah, when he had Rashid Rice miss basically the majority of the season. Hollywood Brown barely even played for them. And then Xavier Worthy didn't even come on until the second half of the year. And now he's going to have more serious target competition. He finished his tight end six last year and that was the people he was competing with.

[E]

He's also been pretty transparent about wanting to save him for the stretch and for the postseason. There is a load management conversation surrounding Travis Kelce and the dynasty that is the Kansas City Chiefs. So I think we also have to factor in not just potential decline in play, but also they want to play in February.

[D]

Yeah.

[A]

Yeah. Pushback on this pick would simply be. The cost is so low this year. Like, I don't know if I get. If I get a top seven tight end in like the eighth round, I'm like, all right, that's fine.

[B]

Interesting. I just would rather have one of the other top seven.

[A]

The market's really corrected on Travis Kelce. Like, even last year he was. When he ended up, you know, having a down season, he was going like the third round. Right. Like now it's like, I think some.

[D]

Of that has happened since we even put these on out though, in the.

[A]

Last couple influencing markets.

[D]

No.

[A]

Like, no. But I do think you one of the bitcoin influencers.

[B]

Stefania, you should have been to the moon.

[D]

Then I wouldn't be stuck here with you guys.

[C]

Okay, now.

[A]

Stuck, huh?

[B]

Didn't need that.

[A]

I'd like that one.

[D]

No. I think Travis Kelsey, though, has. I think that's happened more in this. In the last last few months. I don't know that we came into this season. I still think people thought one more chance for him to. When we started, where was he at the very beginning? I feel like he was in. He was going in the top five to six. Five or six tight ends.

[A]

Travis Kelsey at the beginning.

[B]

At the beginning, when he.

[A]

I think he still is probably. Yeah. I'm just saying that the fifth or sixth tight end might not come off the board until, you know, pick 81 or something, which I'm cool with. Purse. So that. That would be my. Like, I'm. No, I'm neutral on Travis Kelsey.

[C]

Just give me one of the top three. Ideally one of the top two. If I get Bowers or McBride, I'll settle for Kittle. Yeah, I'd settle for Kittle. Maybe LaPorta, but after that, maybe Hawkinson.

[D]

But then the thing, though, is I would rather take somebody who's not. Like, if Travis Kell's considered tight end six or seven. I'd rather take someone who's considered lesser than. Than him, even if it's a couple rounds later, who probably has more upside. Like, I'd rather get somebody if you're gonna swing, swing for fences where you have a chance to go up as opposed to somebody where you're just hoping that the drop off isn't too much.

[C]

The only other thing I'd say on this is that I thought I was passionate about my hatred of Garrett Wilson this year, but I think Daniel may have upstaged me here with Travis. With Travis, like, I think you're going to be personally offended if he has a good season for what? You're furious.

[B]

If there's one. One guy that could be knocked down a peg right now with how well he's doing in life, it's got to be Travis, right?

[C]

You.

[B]

No.

[C]

If he finishes, like tight end nine, he'll be okay. Like, he's gonna be fine.

[B]

He'll be fine.

[C]

He's okay with that?

[B]

He'll be fine. He'll be fine. I just want better than fine on my team, Mike. Maybe we just have different standards for a fantasy.

[C]

I agree with you. We're on the same side of this one. Okay.

[B]

Okay. Okay. Well, I got a couple of busts here.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

Oh, you got one more?

[D]

Well, I Didn't say my actual. Actually my.

[B]

I'm sorry, are you done?

[D]

One, my biggest one is my running back, which is Kyron Williams of the Los Angeles Ram. Totally unpopular with some of the people up here.

[A]

But listen, this is a good, this is like, I like this because it's bold. Like, I don't think I've heard anybody be like my bus this year. I've heard a lot of our picks.

[D]

This is where I come in with the definition of what a bust is. Because Kyron Williams the in. If you're looking at utilization and opportunity, he's in the top. He's at the top, right? So he's not one of the top four running backs, but he's in the top 10. But if you're looking at where we end up at the end of the season and to me this is a risk situation because of the utilization of Kyron Williams. And I talked about it a little bit last year and I thought maybe Sean McVeigh had learned a lesson and that's why they drafted Click Gorham. But it turned out that was a false flag because they, they continue to rely on Kyron Williams so much that the amount that he touches the ball at some point is going to be problematic and I don't think it's sustainable. Let me give you some numbers. So Williams accounted for nearly 80% of all touches by Rams running backs. Only player in the league to handle at least 70% of his team's total rushing attempts, including those by players other than running backs. 350 touches are the third most behind. Of course, Saquon Barkley, who you've talked about, and Bijan Robinson. Okay. Back to back seasons of over a thousand yards rushing. Like again, these are points. These are good things, what I want in a running back. But every time you were looking at the percentage of snaps he was on the field, it was something over 85%. You can't be on the field that much and not risk injury exposure. I think that he, he is at high risk for breaking down and I feel like it's going to catch up to them this year.

[E]

Didn't we see a regression in efficiency from Kyron Williams between 2023 and 2024.

[D]

Averaging 5 yards per carry in 2023 to 4.1 in 2024.

[E]

So the fear is that he could dip but like a 3.8 this season.

[A]

You know, it's so fascinating is the Rams, I think disagree, right. They just gave him 33 mil.

[D]

Of course they do, but. So why are they continuing to take other running. Like I think they like the idea.

[A]

Of balancing and like March, like March and April emotions, like just get laid to rest.

[D]

Let me finish my thought. You know, I've talked about the Rams medical staff before and how great they are and how. And that there's a whole lot of communication between coaching staff, front office, medical, and they monitor workload and fatigue and all of these things very, very carefully. And everybody is rolled into that. Which is why I think they understand there's a risk and why I think they believe that they should try and balance it out. But then when it gets into the way the games are going, gets closer to the season, McVay just can't do it. It's the way that Todd Gurley who's here, he was utilized like that in the Rams offense until that wasn't the ability to do that any longer. McVay was. Has fallen in love with Kyron Williams. We thought Blake Corum was going to be there to take the workload, to balance some of that workload. It did not happen. And then Blake Corum had an injury of his own. But they keep saying they're going to find ways to use him more this year and I'm not seeing it. So at the front end of the season, I will look completely wrong at the back end of the season. Let's have a conversation.

[A]

I think I agree with this take, but I freaking love it. It's bold.

[C]

Well, I think you answered your own question though. I mean, the reason they keep investing in Day, you know, borderline Corum was the third rounder. Right. The reason they do that is because they know that it's so hard to make it three straight seasons with a huge workload like that. They need a fallback option. They haven't had good running back depth. So I think that part of it makes sense. Also, I was not a big Blake Coram fan coming coming into the league as you know, just evaluator.

[D]

If you go back and watch Sean McVeigh's press conferences last year, he literally said we need to find ways to. Yeah, he was basically talking about this exact thing. We need to help Kyron Williams out. We need to. We need to take some of that workload away. We can't have him on the field so much. He was saying these things. They didn't happen.

[C]

No.

[E]

And I don't think they were very fickle in love. I mean seen him fall in and out of love with numerous running backs and it's not like field. I understand what you're Saying about the. I love Stefania's take as well. It is making me think the efficiency conversation is the piece of it that I find the most compelling. But when you answer it with the money they've just spent on Kyron Williams, it's not as though we haven't seen a professional sports franchise, particularly one based in Los Angeles, mismanage their money.

[C]

I think he's similar reference to in.

[E]

This case, the Lakers.

[C]

Yeah, I just think he's similar to your Barkley evaluation is a guy that just had a heavy workload week to week. Barkley will be fine. Kyron Williams will be fine. He scores a touchdown basically every game. The question is, can he get through incredibly different with that sort of workload? He can average. He can average. Yeah, he can average 3.7 yards per carry if he scores a touchdown every week. I'm not worried about that. It's just, you know, these other guys are. I think the only question, the question.

[D]

Is which Barkley and Byron Williams is as the same because they are just built very, very.

[C]

They're built different. But the point is they've had massive workloads. And the quite the question you're asking yourself when drafting is will they sustain this for a full season?

[D]

But I answer it differently based on how they're built. Like, I don't think it's the same answer just because, like, I can't take just the numbers and say these two guys have had the same workloads and are therefore down the same path. The way Saquon is built as a running back is very different than Kyron Williams. And the way they're subject to the, you know, punishment they take for lack of a better word on the field makes Kyron Williams riskier to me than Saquon Burke.

[A]

You know, we were down at the beach earlier today for the combine and people were like, dude, I remember you last year like shredding your shoulder on the beach and like here you are a year later and like some were like best shape I've ever seen someone in my entire life. And like you are built different. So I, I relate.

[B]

Can I relate to this little built different thing? All right, well, I'm going to land this plane for us on the show and talk about my busts here. And you guys have already mentioned a handful of them. One of them being Saquon Barkley, another one being Travis Kelce. My wide receiver bust is Jerry Judy, just the number one wide receiver in a Browns offense that just has question marks of quarterback. Obviously we all feel much Better.

[A]

Who deserves the iron quarterback?

[B]

It's Joe Fl.

[C]

Joe Flacco.

[B]

Thank you. I got the joke halfway through as I was answering his sorry field.

[C]

We pronounce. We pronounce names correctly.

[B]

That's right, Joe Flacco.

[C]

Because we respect.

[B]

We feel a lot better about. About Jerry Judy with Joe Flacco under center. But I would not be shocked if we get to a point in which we're going to see a different Browns quarterback. And that's the part that, as I'm getting into the meat of my fantasy.

[A]

Season, they have young quarterbacks on their roster.

[B]

They've got six of them. Feel I'm pretty sure they've got at least six.

[A]

I heard that Joe Flacco, who does not have any children named Joe, is now going to have Flaco Senior on the back of his jersey because he's so old.

[B]

So old. That's exactly what it is. By the time that I get into the fantasy playoffs. You know what I don't want? I don't want a young rookie quarterback all of a sudden coming in and deciding whether or not the guy I've been relying on is going to continue to be that guy. So Jerry Judy is my bus at the wide receiver spot. And for quarterbacks, it's going to be Baker Mayfield.

[A]

I thought we were a Pro Baker podcast around here. Bakers in general, we love Bakers. People that make parfaits. I mean, pastries. People that are named Baker. Like, I thought we were a Pro Baker podcast.

[B]

I am out, out on Baker Mayfield this year. Here's the reason why ADP right now is QB6, maybe QB7. But that means you're literally drafting him at a season at a ceiling. Excuse me. Unless you think he's going to be better than Josh Allen or Jaden Daniels or Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow. I don't think that Baker Mayfield is going to be better than any of those guys. So if I'm drafting him at QB6, I think I'm drafting him at what will be his ceiling. And with how I view the position this year, I would rather get one of those quarterbacks that I don't have to use a pick quite as early on that I think could still be in that QB 6 to 7 to 8 range. Then I can grab someone a little farther on down that list. Chris Godwin. Major question marks there. Mike Evans is like 135 years old at this point. In football years. Yeah, in football years. Stefania. All right. And then obviously, Jalen McMillan dealing with a very serious injury. We'll see how that one works out. But, like, there's no Liam Cohen there.

[C]

There.

[B]

The offense has changed. We talk about his plethora of pass catchers, and sure, he's got a huge number of pass catchers, but there's now more question marks than there were to start the season. Which is why Baker Mayfield is going to be my quarterback.

[E]

I feel like we all had this conversation, like, 15 minutes ago.

[C]

You're right. Did we remember that?

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

Did you just steal Liz's notes or. What is that?

[B]

I don't think I stole Liz's notes. No, I don't think that just happened.

[C]

He just wasn't paying attention. Attention.

[B]

Absolutely not. By the way, you guys basically all pick my. This is what happens when you go last. You guys have already basically talked about all the people that I was going to choose from, so.

[E]

So you just repeated what I said?

[B]

Everything that you just said. 100.

[E]

We are on the same.

[C]

I will say this to support both of you. Last year, BAKER Mayfield threw 40 passing touchdowns, which allowed him to hang with those top quarterbacks, the running quarterbacks. That's only happened seven times in NFL history. So it'll be. He'd be the age eighth if he throws 40 touchdowns again this year. That's a high bar. And that's what you're counting on if you draft him to be your fantasy starter.

[B]

So I guess I should have picked Jerry Judy, because we already had Baker Mayfield, we already had Saquon Barkley, and we already had Travis Kelce. I guess that means. I guess I picked the good players because all you guys are just following suit with what I think you should have said.

[E]

Jared Goff.

[B]

That's gonna do it for Fantasy Focus today, my friends. We're gonna be back tomorrow. Don't worry. We got more here from Baja. Mar, make sure you stick with us. Us.

[A]

Don't forget to have more coming your way.

[B]

Be kind to yourself, and we will see you guys tomorrow.

[A]

You've seen the headlines, heard the debates.

[D]

The three point ball has created a monotonous rhythm to the game.

[A]

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