Fantasy Focus Football — Episode Summary
Podcast: Fantasy Focus Football
Episode: Undervalued Players to Look Out for in your Fantasy Football Draft!
Date: August 23, 2025
Hosts: Field Yates, Daniel Dopp, Mike Clay, Stephania Bell, Liz Loza
Episode Overview
In this episode recorded live from the Baja Mar resort, the ESPN Fantasy crew dives into undervalued and breakout players to target in your fantasy football drafts, analyzing winners and losers after the Brian Robinson Jr. trade, debating breakout and bust candidates across positions, and sharing candid banter about poolside escapades, preseason hype, and strategic draft advice.
Theme: Identifying which players are being overlooked, which breakouts have true upside, and which big names may disappoint in 2025 based on early evidence, NFL transactions, and analytic trends.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. San Francisco 49ers/Commanders Running Back Trade Analysis
- Context: 49ers acquire Brian Robinson Jr. from Washington, shaking up depth charts and insurance values.
- Impact on 49ers Backfield:
- Christian McCaffrey (CMC) remains a top-6 to 8 fantasy pick; workload is steady.
- Brian Robinson Jr. projects as a spell/goal-line back — minor fantasy impact.
- Insurance handcuff value for Isaac Guerendo takes a hit; "cut him loose" recommendation if previously rostered.
“If you’ve taken a late flyer on [Isaac Guerendo]... you can cut him loose.” (Mike, 06:17)
- Impact on Commanders Backfield:
- Likely 3-way split: Austin Ekeler (safe passing-game floor), Bill Croskey Merritt (young, upside pick), Chris Rodriguez (goal-line/short yardage).
- Debate: Take the “tried and true” (Ekeler) or swing for upside on breakout/Merritt.
“Ekeler would be the safest, but I want Croskey Merritt. That’s a guy who could establish himself as the one.” (Mike, 07:08)
- All agree: Isaac Guerendo and Chris Rodriguez are only waiver-watch candidates, barring injury.
- Notable rookie comp: Bill Croskey Merritt likened to 2022’s sleeper Pacheco.
“He reminds me a little bit of Pacheco’s draft stock back in what, like 2022?” (Liz, 11:27)
2. 2025 Fantasy Breakout Candidates
Mike Clay’s Breakout: Ashton Genti (RB, Las Vegas Raiders)
13:10
- High draft capital, projected feature-back role, little competition.
- Stat: Last 8 RBs drafted in top-12 all finished as top-10 fantasy RBs as rookies, even if inefficient.
“He'll be a clear feature back... If you look at the last eight running backs drafted top-12, all were top-10 fantasy RBs as a rookie.” (Mike, 13:20)
Liz Loza’s Breakout: Justin Fields (QB, NY Jets)
16:27
- Cites “Konami code” rushing upside, Tanner Engstrand’s run-focused scheme, historical top-10 fantasy finishes.
- Acknowledges passing concerns but hopeful for best ball or boom weeks.
“He was a top 10 producer as a starter in Chicago... I think he could finish as a top eight quarterback.” (Liz, 16:42)
- Debate among the group: Low passing ceiling could cap consistency.
“He’ll have a month where he carries your squad… but personally, other QBs are smoother sailing.” (Field, 18:47)
Stefania Bell’s Breakout: Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR, Arizona Cardinals)
19:35
- Year 2 candidate, off-season muscle and improved chemistry with Kyler Murray.
- Needs “more creativity from Arizona's offense,” low YAC and no manufactured touches in rookie year.
“They could have easily moved back. It’s the proverbial ‘buy a Ferrari and park it in the garage.’ Don’t do that with Marvin Harrison Jr.” (Field, 21:19)
Daniel Dopp’s Breakout: Rome Odunze (WR, Chicago Bears)
21:30
- Predicts sophomore leap in Ben Johnson's new scheme; potential WR2 value, late-9th round ADP.
- “Set up for a really nice sophomore jump, especially because his ADP is in the very end of the ninth round.” (Daniel, 22:40)
Field Yates’ Breakout: Ladd McConkey (WR, LA Chargers)
23:06
- Cites increased role in aggressive passing offense; projects “baseline of 140 targets.”
- Not threatened by Keenan Allen’s arrival; “best playmaker on their offense — not a conversation.” (Field, 24:04)
3. Players to Avoid (Busts) in 2025
Mike Clay’s Busts:
26:44–30:13
- Jared Goff (QB, DET): 2024 was Goff’s “peak”; likely regression with OC Ben Johnson gone and O-line concerns.
“I think we saw his peak, and he returns to earth.” (Mike, 27:24)
- Mark Andrews (TE, BAL): Unsustainable TD rate, low target share.
- Breece Hall (RB, NYJ): Third-round ADP too rich; expects significant RB timeshare.
“We’re going to see Braylon Allen… and Isaiah Davis… I think he’s going around or two too early.” (Mike, 28:34)
- Garrett Wilson (WR, NYJ): Top 6 in targets every year, but never a fantasy WR1. Consistent volume, low ceiling with Justin Fields.
“He may finish WR17, 20, but he’s not going to beat that... That is his ceiling.” (Mike, 29:18)
Liz Loza’s Busts:
33:31–36:59
- Colston Loveland (TE, CHI): Too much depth/mouths to feed; ADP doesn’t reflect slow rookie ramp.
- Tyreek Hill (WR, MIA): Volatility, age, surgery, and QB fit concerns.
- Baker Mayfield (QB, TB): Being drafted at “ceiling” (QB6/7), unlikely to repeat career year post-OC change.
“You’re assuming he can copy and paste a career season... that's awfully optimistic.” (Liz, 35:16)
- Saquon Barkley (RB, PHI): Historic workload, every high-volume RB last 10 years has regressed; can't repeat 484 touches.
“Every RB over 300 carries and 20 receptions... has regressed… He’s not doing it again.” (Liz, 36:41)
Field Yates’ Busts:
37:50–41:31
- Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC): Still going earlier than peers despite only 4 top-10 weeks in 2024; better value at QB later in drafts.
“You're having to pay basically full freight on Mahomes when there are really, really good options lower.” (Field, 39:41)
- Joe Mixon (RB, HOU): “Undraftable” until legal clarity.
- DJ Moore (WR, CHI): “Something just feels a little off… not quite to the level of Tyreek/Tua, but not totally connected with Caleb Williams.”
- Jonnu Smith (TE, MIA): Traded, lost sleeper value.
Stefania Bell’s Busts:
43:23–55:18
- Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC) and DJ Moore (WR, CHI): Echoes Field’s rationale; cost too high vs. likely output.
- Travis Kelce (TE, KC): Physical decline, more target competition, possibly not even a top-5 TE now.
“The physical decline… He's not someone I want to draft in the top five tight ends.” (Stefania, 45:00)
- Kyron Williams (RB, LAR): Overwhelming workload, unsustainable usage rate raises injury risk; sees Rams talking about lightening load but not executing; worries about regression.
“Every time you were looking at the % of snaps… it was something over 85%. You can't be on the field that much and not risk injury exposure.” (Stefania, 51:41)
Daniel Dopp’s Busts:
55:57–58:45
- Saquon Barkley (RB, PHI) and Travis Kelce (TE, KC): Agrees with above.
- Jerry Jeudy (WR, CLE): #1 WR for Browns but unstable QB situation worries him for playoff reliability.
“By the time I get into the fantasy playoffs... I don’t want a rookie QB throwing to the guy I’ve been relying on.” (Daniel, 56:49)
- Baker Mayfield (QB, TB): Same as Liz — drafting at ceiling.
“If I’m drafting him at QB6, I think I’m drafting him at what will be his ceiling.” (Daniel, 57:15)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- Mike (on rookie RBs): “All those guys weren’t necessarily efficient… but he was still top 10.” (13:16)
- Liz (on Fields bounceback): “I think the Chicago Bears ruined him and broke him, but I think New York could be his redemption story.” (16:27)
- Stefania (on Marvin Harrison Jr.): “It’s the proverbial ‘buy a Ferrari and park it in the garage’… Don’t do that with Marvin Harrison Jr.” (21:19)
- Field (on Ladd McConkey): “Baseline of 140 targets should be expected for Ladd.” (24:01)
- Liz (on Saquon's regression): “He’s not doing it again. It’s not going to happen… if you’re not comfortable with a regression, then don’t pay for one.” (36:41)
Timestamps for Important Segments
- NFL Trade Breakdown – 05:04 – 11:26
- Breakout Players Roundtable – 13:05 – 26:36
- Mike: Ashton Genti – 13:10
- Liz: Justin Fields – 16:27
- Stefania: Marvin Harrison Jr. – 19:35
- Daniel: Rome Odunze – 21:30
- Field: Ladd McConkey – 23:06
- Busts Roundtable – 26:44 – 59:05
- Mike: Jared Goff, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson – 27:24 – 29:18
- Liz: Colston Loveland, Tyreek Hill, Saquon Barkley, Baker Mayfield – 33:31 – 36:59
- Field: Mahomes, Mixon, Moore – 37:50 – 41:31
- Stefania: Mahomes, Kelce, Kyron Williams – 43:23 – 55:18
- Daniel: Saquon, Kelce, Jerry Jeudy, Mayfield – 55:57 – 58:45
Tone and Style
- Lively, analytical, humorous, at times self-deprecating; engaging audience with relatable banter and advanced stats.
- “If you’re counting on a breakout, you don’t mind spending that extra draft capital.” (Liz, 26:16)
- “Finally dominant and [the Lions] have two unbelievable running backs… Then Goff is just really tough.” (Daniel, 27:58)
- “Would rather be a year too early or a year too late... I’d rather be a year too early.” (Daniel, 45:54)
Summary Takeaways
- RB insurance handcuffs are slipping in value amid committees and backfield trades.
- Several highly-drafted players—Saquon, Kelce, Mahomes—may be more likely to disappoint at ADP due to age, volume regression, or team context.
- Breakout potential is strong for rookies and sophomores tied to opportunity or innovative play-calling (e.g. Ashton Genti, Marvin Harrison Jr., Ladd McConkey, Rome Odunze).
- Don’t reach for perceived safety: ceiling and consistency is key, especially with QBs and RBs.
Tune in to tomorrow’s show for more positional debates and preseason insights!