← Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry
Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry
Best Season-Long Player Props: Christian McCaffrey, Bucky Irving + More
00:51:59
August 20: Matthew (@MatthewBerryTMR), Jay (@croucherJD), and Connor (@ConnorJRogers) run through their favorite season-long player prop bets for the upcoming season, focusing on names like Christian McCaffrey, Bucky Irving, Trevor Lawrence, Drake London, and Tyler Warren. The team then breaks down some of the biggest news around the league, including Anthony Richardson’s future, and who’s stepping up in Tampa Bay with Jalen McMillan sidelined. The show wraps with best bets to win the AFC South.
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- [00:01]
Matthew Berry
If you could hear love, what would it sound like? Son, can we talk about your drinking?
- [00:16]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, Dad, I think we should.
- [00:19]
Matthew Berry
Helping those closest to you think about their excessive drinking. Maybe that's what love sounds like. More@rethinkthedrink.com An OHA initiative introducing family freedom from T Mobile. We'll pay off four phones up to 3, 200 and give you four free.
- [00:36]
Connor Rogers
Phones all on America's largest 5G network.
- [00:38]
Matthew Berry
Visit t mobile.com familyfreedom up to 800 per line via virtual prepaid card. Typically takes 15 days. Free phones via 24 monthly bill credits with finance agreement. Example Apple iPhone 16128 gigs 829.99 Eligible trade in example iPhone 11 Pro for well qualified credits end and balance due. If you pay off early or cancel contact us. Welcome to the 80s with, with Connor. He's. He's ready to take your order at to the Max.
- [01:08]
Connor Rogers
Yeah, I don't even know what that is.
- [01:09]
Jay Croucher
Not sure that's a Saved by the Bell reference.
- [01:11]
Matthew Berry
You've never heard of Saved by the Bell? I don't.
- [01:13]
Connor Rogers
I didn't watch Saved by the Bell.
- [01:14]
Jay Croucher
Connor Rogers looked Jordan Space.
- [01:17]
Matthew Berry
Come on.
- [01:17]
Connor Rogers
All right, you're wearing another jumpsuit back to back days.
- [01:22]
Matthew Berry
I need the YouTube commenters to like this is. Yeah, you look like you're. You're working it back to the max.
- [01:30]
Jay Croucher
Bill and Ted's excellent adventure meets Jordan Spieth.
- [01:33]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, it's a little bit.
- [01:34]
Connor Rogers
The Spieth reference is the only one that's hitting for me, boys. I'm sorry.
- [01:41]
Host/Announcer
Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry.
- [01:46]
Connor Rogers
Welcome to the Fantasy football happy hour and welcome to all the regulars here at the fantasy football Happy hour bar. Connor Rodgers, Jay Croucher. Don't worry, Matthew Berry is here. He's just in the love hate bunker right now. By the way, Saved by the bell debuted in 1989. It was off the air in 93.
- [02:02]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, I can't have that. You can't have that. You can't expect us to know Saved by the Bell references, Matthew, given that we are so many years your junior. So, yeah, I'm going to throw the challenge flag on that one and kind of gets a pass.
- [02:13]
Connor Rogers
Thank you, Jay. It sounds like we don't have Matt, Matthew just yelling into the void right now. So we'll take things from here while we figure that out. But listen, we got a lot to do today. And of course before we get anywhere, Zack Morris does drink for free. I mean, they're giving Saved by the Bell a little bit of Love here. Even though we can't hear Matthew and he's the only one that would actually want to react to this, so.
- [02:34]
Jay Croucher
Exactly.
- [02:34]
Connor Rogers
We'll keep things moving.
- [02:36]
Jay Croucher
That'll do it for the quota of. Yeah. Kind of looks like.
- [02:41]
Connor Rogers
You know how I knew you guys were right?
- [02:43]
Jay Croucher
Justin Bieber.
- [02:45]
Connor Rogers
I was. I was golfing in that shirt last night and I passed by a crew of probably like high school or college guys and this guy goes, hey man, great shirt. And I was like, damn, that's probably not a good sign. Maybe they were right.
- [02:58]
Jay Croucher
I like this new golf version of Connor. Really leaning into the golf scene this well.
- [03:03]
Connor Rogers
Yeah. Now it's over because we'll be on this desk, which is great. You know, six days a week for you guys and Big Ten coming up and Sundays, a lot of good stuff coming up. And that continues today because we're hitting player news later in the show, including of course the fallout. We talked on this briefly yesterday. Anthony Richardson being passed by Daniel Jones will be the starting quarterback for the Colts. We'll get deeper into that because we have some of the quotes after that decision. But first we're going to hit some of our favorite season long player props. This is one of my favorite shows we do of the summer, Jay, because we get to look ahead and there's so much risk here because of injury. That's baked into the odds. But it is fun to kind of project maybe who's going to take a jump, who's set too low. And I know you want to start with a household name.
- [03:44]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, I do. Christian McCaffrey, who, who is an injury risk naturally. But this lion prices in. I think a lot of people are pricing in that he's definitely going to get injured. Like it's not 100% chance.
- [03:55]
Connor Rogers
Line says that because he's too good for this.
- [03:56]
Jay Croucher
He set at 950 and a half rushing yards. Okay. So his last fully healthy season In San Francisco two years ago in 2023, he averaged 91 rushing yards per game. He had 1459 for the season. He played 16 games. Now he left two of those games halfway through hurt as well. So he basically played 15 games. Let's call it. So he averaged 91 rushing yards per game. Let's say that that drops way off. Let's say he averages 75 rushing yards per game this year. These days, play 13 games. He can go on IR for a month and still go over this line. So I just think that when you price out the injury risk, yes, it's elevated for McCaffrey because he does have an injury history and he is 29 years old, which is, you know, fairly old for a workhorse running back in this NFL. But at the same time, I think that there's just way, way too much prices in the injuries from Caffrey. And I think you can miss time and still go over 950 and a half.
- [04:51]
Connor Rogers
Last year, 18 running backs went over this number.
- [04:55]
Matthew Berry
18.
- [04:56]
Jay Croucher
Yeah.
- [04:56]
Connor Rogers
And actually it would be 19. Alvin Camara missed it by a yard.
- [04:59]
Jay Croucher
Yeah.
- [04:59]
Connor Rogers
One yard.
- [05:00]
Jay Croucher
Yeah. So I just. I don't. I don't understand this line. I get that obviously a huge amount of his value is with the receiving game, but just on rushing alone, I expect that Christian McCaffrey, unless he suffers a severe outlier injury, which is an underdog to happen, he will hit 1k rushing.
- [05:16]
Connor Rogers
I'm going to stick with the running back theme of positivity here and go over for Bucky Irving, who's at 1,000.5 yards. Bucky Irving, obviously, last year in his rookie season where he really had to steal this backfield slowly over time, Jay, he had over 1100. 1100 rushing yards on just 207 attempts. So the fact that this is set at a thousand is another one where they're kind of just baking in injury. I understand Tristan Wurf's going to be out a little bit. I still think the Bucs will be able to run the ball because they're such a threat to throw the that it actually does the inverse and opens up their run game. Bucky should easily get over a thousand yards. I thought this was set a little bit low and they know that now, unlike last year, this is his backfield.
- [05:53]
Jay Croucher
Yeah. It seems like a lot of discontentment with Rashad White or at least a lack of enthusiasm about Rashad White, who's.
- [05:59]
Connor Rogers
Now, I think, banged up already, too.
- [06:00]
Jay Croucher
Indeed. So when he took over, he was a monster. One of the most efficient running backs in the NFL. Yes, Tristan works. That absence is going to hurt. At the same time, they get to play the Falcons in week one who don't have any big people on the interior of that defensive line, basically. So I think Bucky should be fine there. Schedule gets a bit harder after that without worse. But still, I think that this offense is going to be so dynamic. It's not like worse as the entirety of the offensive line is.
- [06:24]
Connor Rogers
Right.
- [06:24]
Jay Croucher
Very good unit overall. And I think that Bucky Irving, again, when you talk about injury risk, what creates injury risk in the NFL? It's like previous injury history and age. And with Bucky Irving I think that he will be. He is a fairly low health risk and he should go over 1000 and a half rushing outs.
- [06:44]
Connor Rogers
All right, for the first time today, we could welcome in Matthew from the Love Hate bunker. And he can chime in on one of these or bring one of his own. Hello, Matthew.
- [06:52]
Jay Croucher
There's that glow.
- [06:53]
Matthew Berry
What's up? Yeah, I don't know what happened. We have some audio issues or something. Yeah, I'm writing Love Hate all day. Tomorrow will be Love Hate day. And I like both these bets. I agree with you, Jay. Basically. Basically, betting against Chris McCaffrey is just a. Oh, we don't think he's going to stay healthy and it's weird. Generally speaking, I feel like when McCaffrey has missed time, he's missed significant time. But he's not a guy that like, oh, he misses a game here, game here, it's either the entire season or he plays the entire season. I've been, I've been very upfront. I am in on Christian McCaffrey this year, so I'm with you on that. And then as for Bucky Irving, like, this is somebody who beat this number last year in a part time role. He really wasn't dominant until the final six healthy games where he took over that backfield. But you sit here and go like, well, last year he was basically behind Rashad White for the first half of the year, missed a game or two and then still managed to beat this number. So, you know, average over 104 rushing yards his final six games. He's dominating the snaps in the preseason. Rashad White is already hurt. I have from a very good source. They believe in Tampa Bay in a massive way that Bucky Irving is a true legitimate RB1 in this league. And as exciting as how we think this offense is, Jay, you've referred to it more times than once that it's one of the best offenses in the NFL. And why that matters specifically for this bet or for Bucky Irving success is that sustained drives mean they stay on the field longer, they have the ball longer. There's more opportunities for Bucky Irving to carry the ball. Like if it's. Even if he's a great running back, but if it's not a good offense overall, they're punting a lot on third downs. They're not holding the ball, they're getting down, so they're bending the run. But again, we think that the Buccaneers are going to be, you know, close or winning most of the games this year. So I really like the bet. Connor Yeah, I think the key you.
- [08:44]
Connor Rogers
Mentioned this, Matthew is you know the he only had 207 rushing attempts last year. 144 went to Rashad White. The Bucs, it's not the best for the Bucs if another 144 carries go to Rashad White. And we've talked about Sean Tucker on this show who made the most ironically of his 50 carries. He went over 300 yards and just 50 carries. I think he would eat into that, but it just feels like it's workhorse bucky time down in Tampa. Matthew, how about a over for you on a player prop?
- [09:11]
Matthew Berry
I'm going to go with Trevor Lawrence. I've been very clear about this. I am. I think there is tons of fantasy football value across the board with the Jacksonville Jaguars. I actually think Brian Thomas could outperform his adp. You guys know I'm all in on Travis Hunter. I think he's going to have a monster, monster, monster season. And it stands to reason that Trevor Lawrence, who's gone over 4, 000 yards in each of his last two healthy seasons beats his number right here of 3, 700 and a half passing yards. So I think he gets at least a 3701. Tampa Bay last year under Liam Cohen passed for over 2. 42.50. 42.57 exactly. Under Liam Cohen, my guy Dwayne McFarland and FantasyLife.com he projects him for over 3, 800 yards. I actually think Dwayne's too low. I do think he gets 4,000 yards. I think he's got a pass first mentality in terms of a coach. I think he's fully healthy. I think their defense is bad. I think they're going to have to throw quite a bit. And the addition of Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter. This offense we do like Brenton Strange here. I actually think Parker Washington for deep PPR leagues is kind of an interesting name but either way I think Trevor Lawrence throws and throws a ton. Give me the over on 37,100 and a half passing yards for T Law this year.
- [10:29]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, I think the case well is that in Tampa Liam Cohen was so I guess modern and advanced in leaning into the passing game. Also just created so much easy stuff for Baker. A lot of screen game, just a very high floor. Not super dependent on hitting deep shots to accumulate yards. And look this Jags defense, things can be better than it was last year when it was one of the worst two or three defenses in the league. Connor. But it's still not going to be an amazing defense and expect that. You know, this team's got a win Total of 7 and a half so the expectation median outcome is they're going to be throwing a fair bit.
- [11:00]
Connor Rogers
They gave up a lot of big plays on the back end last year that led to the script that we believe in. And yes, things should be a little better for Jacksonville because there's been some change on the back end but not enough that you make this astronomical jump and you're not playing in these explosive scripts. And listen, as we've said before, he's done this multiple times. I think when you're looking at player props, something that gives you a little bit of a comfort food feeling is well, I've seen him do it and I've seen him do it recently, so why can't he do it with a better supporting cast and a better play caller, I would be backing this all the way. I'm like you Matthew. I like Trevor Lawrence a lot this year. He's a value not only in fantasy but a value on the props. Jay, let's move over to a wide receiver. Is there an over you like in that market?
- [11:39]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, kind of a feel like a champion of the show this preseason. We talk about Drake London all the time. I like him over 11, 25 and a half receiving yards and we will get to some unders later in the segment. But I think with Drake London the thing is is that one, he had 39 targets in three games with Michael Panick. Panicks clearly had a rapport with him early on. He is going to have the lion's share of this offense in the passing game. He was third in the NFL in targets last year. I think that actually has scope to go up. You got 158 targets. He could push close ish to 200 targets and I think that there's going to be a lot more of an explosive element to this deep game with Michael Penix throwing down the field more Michael Penix given that Anthony Richardson isn't the starter, Michael Penix has a chance to lead the NFL and average depth of target. I think with how much he throws it down the field. And Drake London, he was able to go 150 yards over this number last year despite not having a single 40 yard reception. So I think there's a lot of upside for Drake London. Again, not no real injury history in the NFL. He turned 24amonth ago. So I think that the injury risk aspect is low here too.
- [12:46]
Connor Rogers
Yeah, London will be peppered with targets. We can't say it Enough. That's going to be Michael Pennix's go to guy in Atlanta offense that should be pretty decent.
- [12:54]
Matthew Berry
Matthew, not only pretty decent but also you're sort of thinking about well what's his target competition. I'm sorry, you know, fool me once, shame on. Shame on you. Fool me four times, shame on me. I'm out on Kyle Pitts. Not until you know, I. We've got to prove it. So Darnell Mooney still no timetable for his return so it's really. Other than Bijon Robinson out of the backfield he's competing with Ray Ray McLeod like what are we doing here? I just, you know Drake London is, is going to flirt with a 40 target share on a pretty good offense with a pretty good quarterback. So I like the bet quite a bit. I have as my number nine wide receiver this year. I'm a number 14 overall detective Drake London we always talk about the fact that they use them a lot in the slot, get those easy catches, get those, you know, try to get them in space some yards after the catch and obviously going to throw deep as well. With Drake London so early and often he'll be involved in this offense. I think he hits this number assuming health.
- [13:51]
Connor Rogers
All right, the regulars are chiming in. Owen McGinnity asked thoughts on riding with Penix QB1 Redraft. What do you think of that strategy, Matthew? Obviously it would allow you to wait very, very long on taking a quarterback.
- [14:05]
Matthew Berry
I don't love it. Look, do I think he could provide QB1 value? Sure. I wouldn't want to go into my league with only Michael Penix as my quarterback. I don't mind him as somebody if you wait late but I'd want to pair him with somebody that at least has a little bit more of a floor. So it just, it's a little risky given the small sample size and the fact that when they get in close it's likely going to Bijon Robinson again. We like Penix, he's, he's one of my sleepers. There's a chance he shows up on Love Hate tomorrow. We'll see how that all goes but I don't know that I would be comfortable starting the season with him only as my quarterback in a, you know, 10 or 121 quarterback league.
- [14:47]
Connor Rogers
Yeah, your strategy is something I plan on doing a lot where I'll take, I'll be fine taking a Brock Purdy and then if I want to shoot for an upside pick later on that costs you almost nothing. If you've done enough mock drafts by now It's Michael Penix because there's a world where he throws for over 30 touchdowns and he has the big yardage games but you know, he's not going to run very much. And the fact is, like Matthew said, this is a team that should be able to punch in some touchdowns on the ground.
- [15:09]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, I think it'll be interesting to see just what this team's pass rate over expectation is or whether whether they do put the ball in Panic's hands more or whether this is just Bijan's offense and then Panicks is taking deep shots off of that or whether they are letting him drop back and have games where, you know, he's throwing the ball 37 times. So that'd be interesting. We just don't have much of a sample of seeing Panics yet. So it's. We're speculating.
- [15:30]
Connor Rogers
I'll keep the wide receiver theme going. Ricky Pearsall, his over for receiving yards is at 875 and a half. That's minus 110 on DraftKings. That's not what I'm playing. I'm playing Ricky Pearsall over a thousand receiving yards at plus 150. He is the 49ers number one wide receiver right now. It has been that way this summer. They're waiting for Brandon Ayuk, Juwan Jennings obviously down and out right now as well. We got to hear from Ricky Pearsall on the connection he's already built with the 49ers starting quarterback Brock Purdy.
- [16:00]
Ricky Pearsall
Just trying to get on the same page, communicate, you know, different landmarks I need to be at during, you know, different timings of, you know, his drop back and just continuing to rep that and getting better and better with it and then obviously just building, you know, the actual relationship as a whole going into off season, having a good few last games and just building off of that and continuing to take that confidence, continue to expand my knowledge inside the playbook and Shanahan's offense and you know, just, you know, like you said, getting quicker and working on my routes, working on, you know, going to Florida with Brock and doing things like that.
- [16:31]
Connor Rogers
Jay, we know the road. It was for Ricky Pearsall to make it back to the field last year. In the three games he got at least six targets, he averaged 94 receiving yards. This is a first round pick. I'm in on him being the number one wide receiver of this offense, especially from a target perspective.
- [16:45]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, I think that he may tail off a little bit towards the end of the season when these Guys get healthy, but he's going to go potential, you know, almost halfway to getting this number, I think in the first six, seven weeks of the season when there's no brands in Aiyuk most likely and Juwan Jennings still getting ramped up. So I know exactly what the situation is there. So yeah, ultimately like it's Carl Shanahan offense, the offensive line is improved and it's Brock Purdy the controls. Who was even last year? Brock Purdy. Despite the Niners not having a good season at all, Purdy was still fine. And in terms of his yards per attempt, I believe might have led the league in yards per attempt despite all the injuries. So I think Ricky Pearsall again, if he is healthy, he should go over this number.
- [17:24]
Connor Rogers
Matthew, it feels like Peirsol has been one of the key risers this summer starting with everything going on around Juwan Jennings and the fact that everything from camp has been really positive.
- [17:33]
Matthew Berry
It is, you know, it's interesting. You said he's the number one wide receiver. He's literally the only wide receiver. It just feels like as you mentioned, no, I, you know, Jennings is not in camp yet or you know, not practicing right now. Their rookie, Watkins, he's also hurt. Like it's just you're like sort of who else is there? And so I think people forget last year as well, no Christian McCaffrey for the majority of the of the offense. And so he is so dynamic out of the backfield and requires so much attention that I think this is going to open things up for a lot of the other players. This is one of the better offenses in the NFL and I don't think you can underestimate the value of having all this time where it's literally just Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall in practice, you know, connecting with each other. Furthering that there's a reason they use a first round draft pick on Ricky Piersol. I love the bet at 1,000 yards at plus money, Ricky Piercel. I think this is the breakout year. We're already starting to see it.
- [18:31]
Connor Rogers
Kyle Lacy in the chat said, will ricky clear top 15 at the position this season? I have him and Iuk in a dynasty league and I'm wondering if I should sell iuk. Matthew, I think the question is is this the time to sell iuk? Because it feels like you'd be selling low.
- [18:46]
Matthew Berry
No, that's what I was going to say. I would not sell iuk. I think you are selling low. He'll come back at some point. At some point. And Think he has a big game. This is the other thing that, that people are not baking into the Ricky Pierce all conversation there. Everyone's assuming that the 49ers are telling the truth and that IUK is going to be back by week six. Like, based on what do we think the 49ers are going to have a good sense of injury history around their players? Right. You know, they have. They have consistently. Not just McCaffrey being the most obvious version of it, but that they have consistently been, you know, not super accurate with their player time timetable returns over the years. And so I don't know when Brandon IU comes back, but, you know, it was a very serious injury and it did not happen at the beginning of the season. Remember, he held out. I think this is off the top of my head, but week four, maybe that it happened. So it usually takes at least a year to come back. I don't, you know, I'm not going to have any shares of Brandon IUK this year unless it's like super, super late and I'm in a league that has an IR spot that I can just throw him in there and not think about it. And then if I get anything. But I think even when he comes back, I think, Connor, we've seen this before. Players coming back from this kind of injury start slow. Like it may be two years before we see Brandon and iuk, the guy we remember, back again. Even if he limps through the second half of the year. Like, I just don't think the explosiveness will be back his first year back from injury.
- [20:12]
Connor Rogers
I agree that historically the track record receivers trying to, you know, perform at a top 25 wide receiver level from this kind of injury is. It's not pretty, to say the least. And then you also have to factor in, by the time IUK is really rolling, you could be out of playoff contention or not in the playoffs at all. You're waiting and waiting and waiting. So yeah, I mean, you. There's risk with believing in 49ers injury returns.
- [20:35]
Jay Croucher
Yeah. The other thing too is that the Niners have one of the easiest schedules in football. They're plus 150 to win their division, their win total set at 10 and a half. So there is a good chance that they're not in massive throw scripts all the time. And there are, by the time IU gets back, there will be a lot of mouths to feed on this offense in the passing game between Pierce, soul, Jennings, Kittle McCaffrey out of the backfield and IU.
- [20:55]
Connor Rogers
Matthew, you said before, you won't buy.
- [20:57]
Matthew Berry
A question real quickly before we move on. So, you know, I'm, I'm here in the bunker. I'm here in the love hate bunker at my house. And so I'm watching, you know, I'm watching now you guys, as opposed to like when we're on the desk and I'm just sort of, you know, I'm looking at, at the rundown and I'm sort of in my own mind so I'm getting more of a chance to look at Jay as opposed to a side view, which is what I usually get at the table. I get, I'm looking at him straight on. Connor, can we get a ruling on this facial hair that, that Jay has started to grow? This, this prepubescent kind of. He's looking like he's ready to go out and solve some mysteries or something like that. I'm, I just, I would like the regulars to weigh in on whether or not Jay should keep the facial hair. I'm not sure I'm down with it. Connor.
- [21:40]
Connor Rogers
Well, it's about one day away from being more of an evil look. And Matthew, on top of the facial hair, you are missing the third tracksuit in a row. The leisure first. Yes. We got full maroon today. Top to bottom, full maroon. This is, he's bought in. This is his look now. He's just, he's just a leisure classic. Look at this look.
- [22:00]
Matthew Berry
Is he with, right with the, with the track suit and the, and the weird facial hair. Is he suddenly like a record manager, like a band manager, but like not a good band manager. Like the kind of guy that he probably had like some, some boy bands in the 90s that he's still, you know, shopping around to malls and stuff.
- [22:19]
Connor Rogers
The Dangler earring.
- [22:21]
Matthew Berry
The one Dangler earring. Yeah, he found some, you know, he found some good looking kids that could sing on key and he's putting them together for some sort of boy band.
- [22:28]
Connor Rogers
Evil Shade of the Moon, J Town.
- [22:31]
Jay Croucher
Little K Pop, Demon Hunters Operation. The funny thing is is that even though it looks like a very curated look, one, I don't dress myself and two, the facial hair is not really a decision. Just kind of happened out of app apathy. It just kind of happened. We never ever talk about Connor's facial hair either, which I can't see.
- [22:49]
Connor Rogers
That's the best part.
- [22:50]
Jay Croucher
Oh, up close, yeah, it's kind of, it's a little.
- [22:52]
Matthew Berry
Barely hit puberty. So yeah, I feel like with conversational hair it's just like look, I can Grow it right.
- [22:57]
Connor Rogers
I don't actually need to shave.
- [22:58]
Jay Croucher
Connor as this Billy Costigan, Leonardo DiCaprio and the departed type of kind of frazzled character to take on. Exactly, yeah.
- [23:07]
Matthew Berry
Are you guys seeing these comments, by the way? It's amazing them holding on to that facial hair as much as Naji Harris. Evil J about to win all these bets. The one before, I do think he is kind of evil J with the. With the. With the. The mustache here. The. The. He's on his way to a Fu Manchu.
- [23:24]
Connor Rogers
The regulars are in right now on the. The facial hair J. So we'll see if it. It makes it to.
- [23:29]
Jay Croucher
The people have spoken. The regulars have spoken. Who am I. Who am I to argue against the facial guy promoting regulars?
- [23:36]
Connor Rogers
You don't dress yourself and now you don't decide if you keep your facial.
- [23:39]
Jay Croucher
Hair or not place to be.
- [23:40]
Matthew Berry
Sophia weighed in. Jay, has Sophia weighed in on the. On the facial hair or does she not notice because she's too busy taking care of all your children because you're too busy, you know, betting and having New York City dinners?
- [23:51]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, I don't think she loves it. I don't think she loves it, but that's okay.
- [23:55]
Connor Rogers
Bryce. Winner said typical Giants fan with the facial hair. That's a good callback to the greatest bet ever placed on this show. Giants win the nfc.
- [24:03]
Jay Croucher
I do love my New York Giants.
- [24:04]
Connor Rogers
Oh, boy. All right, back to the player props here. Matthew, you said you won't believe in Kyle Pitts this year, but is there a young tight end you will believe in?
- [24:13]
Matthew Berry
Give me all the Tyler Warren.
- [24:15]
Connor Rogers
I'm with you.
- [24:15]
Matthew Berry
Give me all the Tyler Warren. Daniel Jones being named the starting quarterback of the Indianapolis Colts sent all the Colts fans into a tizzy. They're all very upset about it. But I will tell you for fantasy purposes, it is great news. And I tweeted that out and I had a bunch of people saying said by people that have never watched Daniel Jones play football. Have you seen Anthony Richardson play football? Like. Like at least Daniel Jones can occasionally complete a pass. This is somebody who last year was 32nd, literally 32nd in deep ball rate. I don't know that he was ever had a big arm, but certainly since the injury, he's just. He's been a dink and dunker. He is somebody that throws underneath. And it does seem from the preseason, Connor, Tyler Warren isn't coming off the field. He's a good blocker, obviously. He's a good short yardage target for the way they want to move this offense. They used a very high draft pick on him. He is somebody that they can use in a lot of different ways out of the backfield in a versatile sort of way as well. So I think Daniel Jones being named starter is great for both Josh Downs and specifically Tyler Warren. So give me over 550 and a half receiving yards. I just, I don't think they're factoring in. I don't think that line factors in Daniel Jones and I don't think it factors in sort of his talent. Like again, Dwayne McFarlane has him projected for 642 over@fasylife.com so well over 100 yards or almost 100 yards more than his current line here. I think Tyler Warren's gonna have a monster year and Tyler Warren will be on the love list tomorrow. Make no mistake.
- [25:45]
Connor Rogers
I really like this number and I think in ppr I think he's the best value tight end right now because they he's one of the rare tight ends that will get schemed targets. You'll see tight end screens, you'll see touches that are designed to him to get him running in the open field. Like when he was at Penn State where he actually did get carries and he did get a lot of those manufactured touches. So I'm in on Warren Jay, how about a quarterback that you're a little bullish on?
- [26:07]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, we'll go with a quarterback who has vastly more impressive facial hair than I do and certainly much fuller. Dak Prescott over 3900.5 passing yards. So to go over this number, Dak would if he's fully healthy. And I don't think there's really that much of an injury concern with Dak. I understand that he's been hurt in his career, but he's had three injuries in the NFL. One, he broke his thumb week one against the Bucks a couple of years ago. Very fluky. He had the broken ankle, gruesome angle injury against the Giants, but that's a one off. And then he tore his hamstring last year. I don't think these. There's no degenerative condition. Also, he doesn't run at all anymore. He had 1.6 carries per game last year back when in his early years he's running the ball five times a game, providing some rushing value that is gone now. So I don't think he's much of an injury risk. And if he stays healthy, he just needs to average 229 passing yards per game to go over this. Really, he's done that seven years in a row, like we have his last fully healthy season, he had 4,500 passing yards in 2023 last year. He was on pace even in like a really down year to go over this by 300 yards. So I think that Dak, he just needs to play 16 games and he will go over this number.
- [27:15]
Connor Rogers
And the good news is, Jay, the Fantasy Life plus projection for Dak agrees with you. As we're seeing right here, Matthew, the great tools that the Fantasy Life plus subscription gives players of fantasy football.
- [27:28]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, projections. By the way, whatever your scoring system is, it's all completely unique. So you know, if however many yards you, how many point, you know, if it's six points for a touchdown pass or four points for a touchdown pass, do you get, you know, a point for every 20 yards or 25 yards? Whatever it is, is. So you can input your scoring systems, your unique scoring systems in there and see the projections. And you mentioned Dak Prescott as well. Jay, you're absolutely right. I'm a, I'm a QB12. You know me, I'm not the biggest Dak Prescott guy. But when it comes to fantasy, I think he's going to have a big number here. He's had over 4, 400 passing yards in each of his last three healthy seasons. Jay, you sort of mentioned some of those years, 2019, 2021, 2023. So he's somebody that has put beaten this number when he stays healthy. I think the Cowboys this year have the worst run game that they've had during any of those seasons when Dak was putting up those big run numbers. So I don't think they'll be able to run effectively. And I'd argue that with the addition of George Pickens and a fully healthy Jake Ferguson to go along with 8 my guy, 8 CD Lamb, they probably have the best pass catching core that we've seen for Dak Prescott. So Prescott, who over the last two seasons has ranked third in the NFL in past attempts, the Cowboys have, because, you know, Cooper Rush has played some as well. But the Cowboys, third and past attempts over the NFL season over the last two years. Brian Schonheimer, that's what they're going to do. I also think, by the way, and we've talked about this, Jay, their defense is not nearly as good as it used to be. Again, there's these issues with Micah Parsons. They've been banged up, you know, in previous years. Even when they had this dominant defense fence, Dak was still throwing a ton. Now I think they're going to be in a little bit more of shootout mode. I don't think the Dallas Cowboy defense is terrible, but I do think it's not nearly as dominant as we've seen in previous versions. You know, the addition of George Pickens I think again really opens up this offense. Give me Dak Prescott as a top 12 quarterback this year and give me the over on three. 900 and a half like I think he's easy 4,000 yards Jay so I love this bet.
- [29:30]
Connor Rogers
Get personalized fantasy football insights based on your league settings with fantasy life. Plus your league is unique. Your advice should be two head to FantasyLife.com and use code ROTO20 for 20 off. You heard that regulars ROTO20 for 20 off.
- [29:46]
Matthew Berry
If you play best ball our best ball hub, our fan, our utilization HQ that Dwayne McFarland does is the best deep data dive I've seen out there. Our fantasy HQ tool seriously is like ridiculous. Like I don't know how it does it but it does like it. It will run your team for you and it's it's a tool that I couldn't be more proud of.
- [30:07]
Connor Rogers
The FantasyLife.com the quarterback over I like guys is Caleb Williams and simply it's at 3, 600 yards, 3,600.5 passing yards. He almost did this last year and the Bears were a disaster in terms of what was around him, the lack of infrastructure around him. He had 3,541 passing yards last year. I understand Ben Johnson is going to develop a run game, but they are going to throw the ball enough, Jay, that this is still the number one overall pick in the draft loaded with talent. He looks better already this summer. He has the best coaching that he, you know, compared to last year it's a total runaway. I mean 3600 is just a low bar in a league where quarterbacks play 17 games.
- [30:47]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, I agree. And so the thing is with of these props in general is that the numbers often just look a little bit too low and the natural inclination is to go over. Even though unders historically hit more with these props. But that's because your mind just automatically doesn't bake in that much injury risk. Whereas you know, your average running back is going to miss two games a season. It's not as relevant with quarterbacks because quarterbacks are just less of an injury risk. Even with a bit of a spike recently, there's just less attrition at the position than at a position position like running back. And so I think with Caleb there are just plenty of reasons why he should be in better position than last. My question to you kind of would be, so we know what Caleb can do out of structure and all the highlight plays and everything. Like how much do you think he can adapt to in structure in Ben Johnson? Because last year in structure, he just wasn't very good.
- [31:34]
Connor Rogers
Well, I think something that Ben Johnson was so good at in Detroit was creating space and utilizing his playmakers and roles. They were the best. Think of when he just consistently peppered a Monroe St. Brown with targets from the slot and what he could do with DJ Moore and Roman Dunes A and multiple tight ends that can catch the ball. So really it's just, it's. It seems, you know, insulting to say, but it's dummying down the offense in the reads where when he's looking through his first read and his second read, there's just better spacing that he's accurate. Like you're not worried about his accurate. He's got a quick release, so I'm a believer that he'll get him to play faster. You don't want to completely butcher what makes him great and that's the special plays out of structure. But there's going to be more scripts and more preparation week by week to play within structure and on certain plays back, hey, the ball's got to be out to one or two here. I didn't see that with him last year. A lot of it was dropped back. Okay. My first guy's not open. Well, now I'm going to leave a clean pocket and panic. I expect that to be. It's not going to be perfect this year, but it's going to be much better. Matthew, how about. I want to hear your thoughts on Caleb Williams as well, but another receiver that you know isn't really getting a lot of love that you like the over on.
- [32:39]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, I couldn't agree more on Caleb Williams. I think just again, we've talked about this. No team improve their offensive line more this off season than the Chicago Bears. And if you give Caleb Williams time, I think he's going to be pretty good, especially in a Ben Johnson offense. That was the issue with Jared Goff. Jared Goff was under pressure all the time. They built the offensive line in Detroit. They gave Jared Goff time. He was able to get in rhythm and so we know that Caleb Williams can make all the throws. Just can we give him time? Can we give him a structured offense? And so I think Caleb Williams just drafted him in a league that I'm in right Now I'm very excited about Caleb Williams. I think this is an easy bet. I like the over here, assuming he stays healthy. But another line that I'm really shocked about, Calvin Ridley, over 925 and a half receiving yards. I just, I feel like this line is thinking about last year and isn't baking out, baking in the massive improvement he's getting from quarterback play this year in terms of the inconsistency he had last year and what he's getting in Cam Ward. Remember last year, no player, no player had more deep targets than Calvin early. He had 60. His 15.7 average up the target, second in the NFL. And so like they're going to throw deep to him and they're going to throw deep to him a lot. And then you sort of think about, okay, what else does Tennessee have? Right? They, they've got Tyler Lockett, it's gonna be a slot guy, a possession guy. They've got Van Jefferson. Van Jefferson hasn't caught more than 24 passes in a season since 2021. And they've got a couple of fourth round rookies, Connor, one of whom you even said can't actually catch. Right. And yeah, dk, yeah, yeah. So my point is, is that I think under Brian Callahan, who comes from Cincinnati, former offense coordinator, wants to throw the ball, wants to be aggressive, wants to be a pass first offense. The best thing he has on that passing offense is Calvin Ridley, who in the first precinct game had a 47% target share from Cam Ward. Not a typo, 47%. So I think he gets a massive target share. I think he gets a massive amount of work, assuming health, give me the over 925 and a half receiving yards. I think that's way too low. I think he easily goes over a thousand. Yeah.
- [34:54]
Connor Rogers
And Matthew, I think it speaks, you know, volumes and it really backs up your point. Cam Moore, we've already seen it with Calvin Ridley. Then when you hear him at the podium, he's not talking about the receivers after Calvin Ridley. He's hyping up gunner helm along the lines of that. So I think it's kind of telling you this offense is going to be very, very Calvin Ridley healthy. And then they're looking for other players that just step up, even if they are guys that you wouldn't expect right away.
- [35:18]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, it's just like there's just nothing else figuring it out. The yards have to go to someone like Ken woods, an NFL quarterback. He's going to throw for 3,000 yards and some of those Yards have to. The odds just have to be distributed and you would think overwhelmingly they're going to go to Ridley if he stays healthy.
- [35:31]
Connor Rogers
Speaking of rookies, Jay, how about a rookie running back that maybe we should temper expectations on?
- [35:36]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, so I'm taking under on Caleb Johnson at 725 and a half. So there's a few things here. One, just uncertainty. Overall, there's been a lot of buzz about Kenneth Gainw and Steelers camp playing over him. Yep. Jalen Warren also still there as the established guy. Last time we saw Arthur Smith with a rookie running back, great in terms of expectations with Bijan Robinson, who despite being fully healthy, didn't get to a thousand rushing yards. The other aspect too is that last year the Steelers, they were 26th in pass rate over expectations. So they ran the ball a ton. I think that's informing this number somewhat, but I don't think Aaron Rodgers is going to want to run the ball quite that much. The jets last year in the Aaron Rodgers offense, they were fourth in pass rate over expectations. So I think that, you know, you're probably going to find a happy medium that's somewhere within there. I don't think that the Steelers are going to have a ton of super positive game scripts for Caleb Johnson to go off. And the other aspect is just that, you know, he's a running back and that's the position with the most attrition. So there's always an injury risk as well that comes in with the under.
- [36:36]
Matthew Berry
Yeah.
- [36:36]
Connor Rogers
Matthew, I'm a big fan of Caleb Johnson's talent. We just haven't seen seen something this summer that says the Steelers are ready to just unleash him in an RB1 role in this offense. It really feels like he's the number three guy and his skill sets different than the two guys in front of him. But I just don't know if the volume is there to get all the way to this number.
- [36:54]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, we've seen a lot of Kenneth Gainwell here. We know Arthur Smith likes to use multiple running backs. Again, I go back to Atlanta, they use a top five overall pick on Bajan Robinson, who everyone says is one of the greatest prospects to come out of college in the last decade. And they use a top five overall pick and still Tyler Algier gets enough work to get over a thousand yards that season. Cordello, Pat Cordero, Patterson gets like five touches a game. Like Arthur Smith wouldn't even commit to Bijon Robinson, who was an elite, elite athlete that they drafted very high. So what makes you think he's going to commit to Caleb Johnson, who, you know, all due respect, isn't Bijan Robinson. So we've seen Kenneth Gainwell. We know Jalen Warren's going to have a role. The other thing that I think they're not baking into this line, and which is why I really like the under here, Jay, is Aaron Rodgers. Make no mistake, Aaron Rodgers has generally been throughout his career, not super embracing of rookie running backs. He wants the guys out there that he knows the protections. Aaron Rodgers has his own sort of communication. He wants people to be able to, like, if he just is at the line of scrimmage and just kind of does like a, you know, some sort of little hand motion, he wants some serious. He wants the people to know, oh, that means. That means I'm getting the mike linebacker and this guy's going out, right? Like he's doing all that. And so the point of that, point of me bringing all that up is that if Aaron Rodgers doesn't want Caleb Johnson on the field, if he, if he trusts Kenneth Gainwell or Jalen Warren Moore, Caleb Johnson isn't getting on the field. Like, they're like, it's just. That's like he'll get some run, but, like, until you earn the trust of Aaron Rodgers, you're not getting on the field. It's just how that particular thing works. And so Arthur Smith is obviously going to, you know, acquiesce to. To his quarterback there. So I just. We could see Caleb Johnson having to ramp up and maybe he doesn't have like a legit, you know, impressive role until the middle of the season and so just feels hard to get to this number given how many guys they have there and the concerns with significant playing time certainly early in the year.
- [38:59]
Connor Rogers
We'll rip through a couple unders here, guys. One that I'm playing is J.J. mcCarthy passing yards. It's 3,600 and a half passing yards. I just don't know if they want him to be that guy this year while you're going to be without Jordan Addison, right? Justin Jefferson has really been absent this summer and he's going to be back and he's Justin Jefferson. We have no doubts about that. But 3,600 passing yards in his first season as the starter. Matthew, I think we need to be a little careful with expectations for J.J. mcCarthy. I think this number is just juiced, rightfully so at this, at this height, because everybody loves Kevin o' Connell that much and trust him, they do.
- [39:33]
Matthew Berry
But they improved their offensive line this offseason. They added Jordan Mason, who can be a legit runner. And maybe given that he's a rookie coming off a serious injury, Kevin o' Connell decides to do a little bit more of a balanced offense, tries to go a little bit more run heavy here. So I understand the bet here. Connor.
- [39:51]
Connor Rogers
What about you, Matthew? Is there an under?
- [39:53]
Matthew Berry
You're on ken Walker, under 875 and a half rushing yards, right? He missed six games last season. He's never had an NFL season where he hasn't missed multiple games and he's already dealing with an injury. We have a new offensive coordinator that we don't. You know, Zach Charbonnet is getting, you know, rave reviews in camp. So I just, I think Ken Walker is awesome when he's out there, but I think he's going to miss time this year. I don't know how he gets to this number. Give me the under 875. Dwayne over. Dwayne McFarland at FantasyLife.com projects 830 yards and that also might be a little high. So give me the under here.
- [40:28]
Jay Croucher
I'll take under on breeze hall under 850 and a half. The angle here is that last year he's fully healthy basically and got 876 with a quarterback who didn't run at all. Now he's got a quarterback who will run a lot in Justin Fields and Brian Allen is going to be a bigger part of this offense as well. And also like Breeze hall can still have a good season and go under this number that he's using more in the past game. Like Alvin Kamara had a 700 yard rushing season where he made an all pro team. So I think the Breeze soldiers think he's going to get less usage every.
- [40:53]
Connor Rogers
Time Aaron Glenn's at the podium. He talks about Breece as a receiving back and every preseason game when the jets starters play, Braylon Allen is rotating on the field with the starters. So I'm with you, Jay. It's more about the lack of volume as a runner, but it'll still have the receiving upside. One last one from me here, guys. And we got to have a defensive player prop. Give me Kalija can see the Bucs defensive tackle to have at least seven sacks. He did this last year when he was awesome. This is a really young player in this league that's been phenomenal for the Bucks since. This is a tweet from me, by the way, in January 2023 I said watch a lot of cancer today as it's IDL week on the pod. Very unique rush ability for an interior guy. Listen, he's an undersized pass rusher, but he plays like a big guy, moves like a small guy. Kalija can see seven plus sacks on DraftKings.
- [41:39]
Jay Croucher
Yep, perfect player to have next to Vita Vella. Canti shooting the gap. Vita versus gobbling up all the space.
- [41:44]
Connor Rogers
NBC Sports now is our free 24. 7 streaming channel. You can get NFL news and all the biggest stories in Sports starting at 7am with PFT Live, the Dan Patrick show, the Dan LeBatard show with Stu Gotts, Fantasy football Happy hour with Matthew Barry. That's us. And Chris Sims unbuttoned. Just go to NBCSports.com now. We're going to take our first break. When we're back, we catch up on some of the biggest storylines of the week, including the fallout of the quarterback competition in Indianapolis. The Rotter World Player News is next. Your new beginning starts now. Dr. Horton has new construction homes available in Ellensburg and throughout the greater Seattle area. With spacious floor plans, flexible living spaces and home technology packages, you can enjoy more cozy moments and sweet memories in your beautiful new home. With new home communities opening in Ellensburg and throughout the Seattle area, Dr. Horton has the ideal home for you. Learn more at Dr. Horton.com Dr. Horton, America's builder and equal Housing opportunity Builder.
- [42:50]
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- [43:21]
Jay Croucher
Morning.
- [43:22]
Matthew Berry
One sausage McMuffin with egg, please.
- [43:24]
McDonald's Employee
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- [43:25]
Matthew Berry
Wait. Let's negotiate. How's about you throw in hash browns for a dollar?
- [43:30]
McDonald's Employee
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- [43:33]
Matthew Berry
Take it or leave it. Take it I guess.
- [43:38]
McDonald's Employee
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- [43:49]
Matthew Berry
Ba da ba ba ba.
- [43:52]
Connor Rogers
I think this league is a year to year league and what do I feel is best for the Indianapolis Colts in 2025 and I got to make the these decisions. That's what I get paid to do and I got to go with what I feel is right.
- [44:02]
Jay Croucher
Do you see the future here for.
- [44:04]
Matthew Berry
Anthony as a starter?
- [44:05]
Connor Rogers
Yeah, that's, that's hard to say. Obviously Daniel's our starter right now and if something happened to Daniel at some point like ar, you know, gets another opportunity. That was Colts head coach Shane Steichen on Anthony Richardson's future. Not really what you want to hear most of the time. I mean this is a, it's a big decision. Like this is a guy you took in the top five, you, you bet a lot on as a regime and they are pulling the plug early for a guy that his reputation was, hey, he needs to play a lot more football. They think they've seen enough.
- [44:37]
Jay Croucher
Yeah. I think the thing is here is this is what happens when the potential incentives of a coach perhaps not aligned with the incentives long term of an organization. Right where Shane Steichen, if he doesn't have, if they're not competitive this year, he's going to lose his job. And so I think that Daniel Jones might give the Colts better chance of going nine and eight and getting a seven seed wild card. Anthony Richardson gives them a better chance to win a Super bowl in the next five years. But that's not how this operates. And I think that Steichen probably just feels more comfortable with Daniel Jones. He feels like Daniel Jones is going to do a better job just executing the offense and making all the correct pre snap reads and everything and he just doesn't want to put his job in the hands of Anthony Richardson's 48 completion percentage or whatever.
- [45:18]
Connor Rogers
Matthew, this is a player that you know, flashback the clock to this time last year was potentially being the fifth or sixth quarterback taken in fantasy drafts. This time last year, now not even starting for his own team.
- [45:30]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, it's awful for obviously for his long term dynasty value and I cannot imagine him getting a job back this year barring injury to Daniel Jones. I mean, and I just, I've said this before, I said this when they signed Daniel Jones. I think this is the dumbest move I've ever seen of an organization. This. I go back to the commanders, I'm dead serious. When they signed Jacoby Brissette and they had Sam Howell, I said Jacob should never see a snap. We need to find out Sam Howell should play the entire year and we either find out we've got a quarterback or we're terrible and we have a low draft pick and we can get a franchise quarterback. And that's what happened. We were terrible and we drafted Jaden Daniels. Anthony Richardson should be starting every single game and if he's not the guy, he's not the guy. But Connor, how many games is Anthony Richardson played his, his college career like less than 30.
- [46:20]
Connor Rogers
I mean you go back to high school, it's the same thing. He's not this guy that came in to Florida with a ton of games played and then he didn't play a ton of games at Florida. He declared as a very, very young player with not much playing time. And then because of the tools and traits, he was drafted that early. And then once again, it feels like it's been kind of one foot in, one foot out.
- [46:40]
Matthew Berry
He's a project. You drafted him knowing he was a project and then they haven't treated him like a project. They've basically said why, why aren't you, why aren't you as good as CJ Stroud or you know, or Jaden Daniels or some of these pro ready rookies? And it's just like that's not the guy you drafted. And so I think it's just. And Daniel Jones is fine like the. But the best case scenario for Daniel Jones is you lose in a wild card game. Like you're not to your point, Jay, you're not winning a Super bowl with Daniel Jones. All of that said for the, for us, for us in our world, in the world of fantasy football, it's good for Josh Downs. It's, it's great for Tyler Warren. And I actually think in a Shane Steichen offense, Daniel Jones has sneaky super flex value or two quarterback league value. This is somebody who flirted at one point with the giants with top 10, top 12ish quarterback play. Like they're going to use his legs, they're going to get him on the move. Like we know Steichen likes to use mobile quarterbacks. You saw what he did with Jalen Hurts. They do have legit pass catchers. They have a real run game in Taylor. I think Jonathan, Daniel Jones is not going to be a great NFL quarterback, but I do think he could be viable for fantasy and two quarterback super flex leagues.
- [47:50]
Connor Rogers
Over in Tampa Bay, Rick Stroud, who covers the team for the Tampa Bay times, reports Jaylen McMillan will be placed on injured reserve and could be out past the Bucs. Week 9 by Matthew the Ameca Abuka ADP rises every single hour.
- [48:06]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, I mean what are his odds for offensive rookie of the year 20, 25 to 1.
- [48:12]
Jay Croucher
That type of range.
- [48:14]
Matthew Berry
Kind of like that bet. Kind of like that bet because we assume Godwin's coming back in week five, but we don't know that. We don't know when Godwin's coming back either. So if you're telling me McMillan's not back until at least week nine and Godwin may not be back until at least week five, you're looking at one of the most prolific passing offenses the NFL with Mike Evans. And the number two is a Mecca Abuka, who we talk about all the time. I'm at wide receiver 36 right now. I might be too low, Connor. I'm gonna have to move him up now with this McMillan News. Like, you'll see some Kate Otten as well. But seriously, you know, you know, he is in the Travion, Henderson, Jakory, Crosky, Merritt, you know, crazy ADP risers in this preseason for fantasy football.
- [49:01]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, I mean, this is why you drafted Mecca Abuka as well, because this room is crazy deep in wide receivers. Well, it looks kind of thin, right? And so this is, I think, a booker. Yeah, he. He will be again. This could be a top five offense in the NFL very easily, and he could be the number two option and even the number one option.
- [49:17]
Connor Rogers
He's just too good. It's. You know, he was taken in the first round for a reason by a team that at the moment looked like they didn't need a wide receiver to play that much. And like you said, Jay, here we are speaking, though, of a team that is having kind of the opposite problem. Tom Pelocero said with Jordan Addison suspended in multiple injuries, the Vikings are seriously exploring veteran receivers on the trade market, per sources. Kevin o' Connell spoke on how he feels right now on the depth of their wide receiver room.
- [49:45]
Kevin O'Connell
So I do feel good about the depth. I feel like we're getting a great chance to see guys in some roles and positions that maybe they don't always, you know, get to, you know, when you have that first group in there every single time, and we feel so strongly about that group, you don't always get those reps. So I think it's been a real positive. It's been a positive to see our quarterbacks play with different guys every single day, even sometimes a different guy in the walkthrough than maybe they got for the game rep or practice rep that. That afternoon. So I do think it's a net positive and we'll continue to. To, you know, look forward to what that. What combination of those guys makes us the best possible offense we can be.
- [50:26]
Connor Rogers
Matthew, I really like Kevin o', Connell, but that's the most words about almost nothing that tells me this team could have a new wide receiver soon.
- [50:33]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, but you know what? I don't Even if they sign somebody, you know, the list of free agent wide receivers are kind of like, you know, Amari Cooper, you know what I mean? Like, who seemed done last year. Like, it's guys like that. There are more or less free agents for a reason. I really like what I saw out of Jalen Naylor last year, and I suspect because it's not like Addison has a crazy long suspension, it's a couple of games, right. And so I just feel like it'll be Jefferson and Jaylen Naylor. I think they'll use Aaron Jones more out of the passing game and then TJ Hawkinson should get an increased role as well. So maybe they sign somebody for some depth. But I don't know that there's going to be anyone that comes onto this team that I'm suddenly like, oh, there's immediate fantasy impact, like Amari Cooper, off the top of my head is the biggest name free agent right now, and I have no interest in Amari Cooper.
- [51:23]
Connor Rogers
Our last bit of news here, guys. NFL Network's Ian Rappaport expects Commanders running back Brian Robinson to not play for Washington in 2025. Jay, it seems like Detective Bill Crosby is just another guy that's flying up boards.
- [51:35]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, they feel really good about their receiver room between Detective Bill, the great Chris Rodriguez and friend of the show Austin Eckler. Brian Robinson is an interesting one because if he does land in a place, I don't think they're going to trade into the Cowboys right into a division, but if they did, Brian Robinson might be the number one running back in that room. So he's an interesting guy, depending on where he lands.
- [51:54]
Connor Rogers
Yeah, Matthew, we're not really discussing this enough. What if Brian Robinson ends up in a backfield where he's the guy all of a sudden as his ADP is currently falling, we don't know where he's going to be.
- [52:03]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, if I'm in the 10th round, I don't mind taking a flyer on him at all. He's good. Like, he was productive last year. It's not like he suddenly hit a wall. It's just. It's more of a financial thing in terms of the depth they have, the young players they have. And so you think if he goes to Dallas, if he goes to Houston, I heard Miami might be kicking the tires. Like, you know what I mean? Like there's scenarios where he goes and like, if he was in Houston or Dallas, you'd be really excited. And if he goes to another offense where there's not as much competition Chicago suddenly would be interesting. Like, are we scared of DeAndre Swift? So again, I don't know where he winds up, but I don't in the 10th round, I don't mind taking a flyer because there's a better than average chance that he winds up in a really good fantasy situation.
- [52:46]
Connor Rogers
All right, we're taking our last break here, guys. When we're back, last call. Of course, we keep all the different markets going each day. This time we're going to take it. Take a look at who's going to win the titanic AFC South. That's right. One of the toughest divisions to figure out right after this.
- [53:05]
Matthew Berry
Are you ready to get spicy? These Doritos Golden Sriracha aren't that spicy. Maybe it's time to turn up the.
- [53:12]
Connor Rogers
Heat or turn it down.
- [53:14]
Matthew Berry
It's time for something that's not too spicy.
- [53:16]
Connor Rogers
Try Doritos Golden Sriracha. Spicy but not too spicy. Drafting Sportsbook is an official sports betting partner of the NFL and new customers can bet $5 and get 200 in bonus bets instantly and 200 off NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube TV. Just down the sportsbook app and use promo code FFHA when you sign up. DraftKings sportsbook.
- [53:39]
Jay Croucher
The crown is yours.
- [53:39]
Connor Rogers
The crown is yours.
- [53:40]
Matthew Berry
The crown is yours.
- [53:41]
Connor Rogers
Time for last call. Let's take a look at the AFC south champion odds here. Jay, what do you like on this absolute mess of a board?
- [53:48]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, screw it. I'm taking the jags plus 300. Let's go. I believe in Liam Cohen, believe in his offense. I believe the defense, which is horrific. Last year, it's not that bad. It was top 14 defense the previous year. When I say top 14, I mean 14th.
- [54:02]
Connor Rogers
Listen, if there's a division you want to take the biggest underdog, it's this one because it stinks. There's actual variance in it.
- [54:07]
Matthew Berry
It.
- [54:08]
Connor Rogers
I'll ride with Cam Ward in the Tennessee Titans at +650. I don't care. I like a lot of pieces on this defense. Cam Ward, the least talked about number one pick of all time. I think he can get the job done and surprise people. What about you, Matthew?
- [54:19]
Matthew Berry
I like both those picks. It is a wide open division. It's not good. But I'm going to go with the chalk here. I'm going to take the Texans, who I'm going to get it, plus money. I mean, they've won the division last year. I think C.J. stratton will be better this year. I think Nico Collins stays healthy. So, yeah, give me the Texans guys.
- [54:34]
Jay Croucher
So cults.
- [54:35]
Matthew Berry
Yeah. Anyway, listen it is closing time. You don't have to go home, but you can't stay here. Love hate tomorrow For Connor and Jay. I'm Matthew from the Bunker. Peace out.
- [54:49]
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