Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry

Episode: Biggest Preseason ADP Risers + Fallers

Air Date: August 18, 2025
Host(s): Matthew Berry, Jay Croucher, Connor Rogers
Network: NBC Sports

Overview

This episode dives into the biggest preseason ADP (Average Draft Position) risers and fallers after two weeks of the preseason. Hosts Matthew Berry, Jay Croucher, and Connor Rogers analyze the most important emerging usage trends, discuss which players are rocketing up (or plummeting down) draft boards, give perspective on hot-button roster decisions, and field live questions from the Fantasy Football Happy Hour community. The episode is packed with actionable insights for fantasy managers prepping for their 2025 drafts.

Key Topics & Insights

1. Trayvon Henderson Hype Train

[02:47–06:56]

• Why he's rising:

  • Rookie RB for the New England Patriots; 7.6 yards per carry this preseason; targeted on 44% of routes.
  • Josh McDaniels’ offenses historically feature RBs in the passing game.
  • Patriots' offense should see more explosiveness with additions (Drake Maye, Stefon Diggs, Kyle Williams).

• Berry’s analysis:

  • Quote: "They're going to use Treveon Henderson in smart ways, creative ways, get him in space, take him over. Like I don't think he's going to be a bell cow running back, but I don't think he needs to be." (03:11)
  • Draws comparison to Jameer Gibbs’ rookie usage—12 to 15 touches per game.

• Draft Value:

  • Currently RB20 in Berry’s rankings (57th overall)--"fifth, top of the sixth" round.
  • “Could I see him going in the fourth round? Of course.” (06:21)
  • “I'd rather have him than all those guys” in his current ADP tier (DeAndre Swift, Brian Robinson Jr., etc.) (06:54)

• Caution:

  • "I do worry that the hype is so crazy that he's actually going to be overdrafted." (05:11)

2. RB Risers: Tyrone Tracy & Backfield Battles

[09:34–13:35]

• Tyrone Tracy:

  • 75% snap rate, 88% of rushing attempts with starters; "looks really good" per Jay.
  • Per Berry: “He’s also a great pass catcher…converted wide receiver…Daboll is a creative offensive mind, they’re going to find different ways to get Tracy the ball, try to be creative with him.” (09:58)

• Timeshare Outlook:

  • “Seems like when they're both healthy, it's going to be like 70% Tyrone Tracy, 30% Scatterboo.” (11:41)

• Risk Factors:

  • Singletary may eat into touches; NYG offense still has questions.

3. WR Risers: Jalen Waddle and Dolphins Pass-Catchers

[13:40–17:41]

• Waddle Buy-Low:

  • “I really do.” (Berry, 13:59)
  • 23% target share first three years, dipped last year but plenty of room for positive regression.
  • Tyreek Hill's health creates upside for Waddle as the Dolphins’ top target.

• Quote:

  • “There’s very much a non zero chance that Jaylen Waddle leads the Dolphins in targets at the end of this year.” (14:33, Berry)

• Devon Achane’s injury may further boost short-area targets.

4. Emerging Rookies & Depth Names

[18:07–26:00]

• Ollie Gordon vs. Jalen Wright (MIA):

  • “Ollie Gordon is making a push to either tie or overtake Jalen Wright for that number two spot.” (18:59)

• Emeka Egbuka (TB):

  • 5-yard TD in preseason, could start in slot for a pass-friendly offense with Chris Godwin likely opening year on PUP.
  • “There are worlds where Emeka Egbuka is the number one option on a top two offense in football.” (20:15, Connor Rogers)

• Matthew Golden (GB):

  • First-round rookie WR, “as advertised,” 100% route participation.
  • “Excited for Golden as well.” (22:19, Jay)

• Rapid-fire deep league notes (26:26–26:59):

  • Marvin Mims (DEN) getting more starter reps.
  • Braylon Allen (NYJ) rotating with ones.
  • Croskey-Merritt (WAS) (“Bill time!”) may benefit if Brian Robinson is traded.
  • Keaton Mitchell (BAL) looks explosive.

5. RBs Sliding Down - Joe Mixon, Najee Harris, and More

[27:05–29:59]

• Joe Mixon:

  • Lingering foot/ankle, "might not be ready for Week 1", little transparency.
  • “Not only the mystery, but it doesn’t feel like there’s any answers for a guy that his value is based on being a workhorse. And he’s not ready to be a workhorse right now.” (25:25, Jay)

• Najee Harris:

  • Still not activated from NFI list; “even if he gets healthy and he's going to be on the wrong side of a timeshare with Omarion Hampton, like he needs a touchdown to be effective.” (28:54, Berry)

• Chubbler Watch:

  • Nick Chubb ("the original Chubbler") getting first-team work and could be a sneaky add with Mixon's uncertainty.

6. WR Fallers - Chris Godwin, Brandon Aiyuk, Terry McLaurin, Matthew Stafford

[29:38–38:44]

• Godwin:

  • Almost certainly starts the year on PUP.
  • Strategic pick if you have IR spots: “You’ve got potentially a top 10, maybe top 20 wide receiver for the rest of the way that you got in the 10th round.” (31:03, Berry)

• Brandon Aiyuk:

  • Knee injury; “On track to be back around week six,” but Berry says, “There’s just a massive wide range of outcomes on Brandon Iuk.” (33:00)

• Terry McLaurin:

  • Contract holdout risk, but likely to stay with Washington.
  • Target competition with Deebo added, and prior year’s TD spike may not repeat.

• Matthew Stafford:

  • Lingering back injury, highly uncertain timeline.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Preseason Hype & Overdrafting:

  • “The hype is unbelievable… I do worry that the hype is so crazy that he's actually going to be overdrafted.” (05:11, Berry, on Henderson)

• On “Getting Your Guys”:

  • “If you believe in Treveon Henderson, you should do it… All you’re doing is playing what’s most likely to happen.” (08:10, Berry)

• On Dolphins’ WR Floor & Tua Risks:

  • “The offense falls apart without Tua and as we've said before, I know he played better in week two than week one, but they're one step away from Zach Wilson.” (16:26, Jay)

• Fantasy Football Life Lessons:

  • “It's not a fun way to play fantasy, waiting for a Najee Harris touchdown to fall.” (29:26, Jay)

• On Deep Cuts:

  • “The Bill hype is real and you heard it here first.” (23:40, Berry)

• Running Gag:

  • Jay: “You can't trust him.” (01:34, Jay on Patriots’ QB)
  • Berry: “James Solis.” (01:35, Matthew)
    (Light teasing and banter between hosts throughout episode)

Noteworthy Timestamps

• 02:47: Trayvon Henderson named key preseason riser.
• 03:11: Matthew Berry on Patriots RB usage under Josh McDaniels.
• 09:58: Tyrone Tracy's skill set and NYG outlook.
• 13:59: Jalen Waddle is a value and could rebound.
• 18:07: Ollie Gordon trending upward in Miami.
• 20:15: Emeka Egbuka could be Bucs' top option.
• 22:19: Matthew Golden (GB) showing strong route participation.
• 25:25: Joe Mixon’s status and associated risk.
• 28:54: Najee Harris needs TDs to matter for fantasy.
• 31:03: Chris Godwin a value stash; how to play injuries.
• 33:00: Concerns about Brandon Aiyuk’s true value post-injury.
• 35:41: Terry McLaurin holdout/contract risk.
• 38:44: Matthew Stafford’s injury status.
• 44:33: Justin Herbert on Keenan Allen & Lad McConkey.
• 47:26: Ricky Pearsall’s growing connection with Brock Purdy.
• 50:23: Steelers RB usage: Kenneth Gainwell’s preseason role.
• 51:12: Titans rookie TE Gunner Helm praised by Cam Ward.

Week 2 Preseason Utilization & Rapid Fire Insights

[44:06–52:39]

• Lad McConkey: 75% slot rate, multiple personnel usage, not coming off the field.
• Ricky Pearsall: First-round pick, quick rapport with Brock Purdy, future riser.
• JSN & Cooper Kupp: Both at 100% route participation in SEA—neither being subbed (47:40).
• Dowdle vs. Chuba Hubbard (CAR): Dowdle replacing Hubbard on 3rd downs, denting Chuba’s upside.
• Steelers RB depth: Arthur Smith “always rotates” — expect split backfield.

Last Call: Rushing TD Odds & Community Poll

[53:43–54:37]

• Hosts pick their favorites for most regular season rushing touchdowns:

  • Connor: "Christian McCaffrey at 22 to 1"
  • Jay: "I’ll eat the chalk… give me the king [Derrick Henry] at +450"
  • Berry: "Jameer Gibbs at 10 to 1"

• Community naming poll (for show listeners): “The Regulars” currently leading.

Conclusion

This episode is a blueprint for adjusting your draft boards based on real preseason usage data, not just hype or rankings inertia. The hosts surface potential fantasy league winners (Trayvon Henderson, Tyrone Tracy, Emeka Egbuka, Matthew Golden), address common pitfalls (overdrafting rookies, uncertainty around injured vets), and provide deep cut names for savvy drafters. The chemistry among the hosts and their trademark back-and-forth adds an entertaining layer to highly actionable fantasy advice.

For full rankings, projections, and more preseason analysis, visit NBCSports.com and Rotoworld.