← Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry
Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry
Breakouts + Busts: Drake London, Marvin Harrison Jr., Saquon Barkley lead the way
00:52:14
August 12: Matthew (@MatthewBerryTMR) discusses his appearance on The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon with Jay (@croucherJD), and Connor (@ConnorJRogers), then the trio dive into who is on their “Breakouts” and “Busts” list for the 2025 season. Drake London, Chase Brown, Dalton Kincaid, James Cook, Saquon Barkley, and Derrick Henry are among the players highlighted. The show concludes with bets the crew is making on QB to throw the most interceptions this year.
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- [00:01]
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- [00:42]
Matthew Berry
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- [01:08]
Connor Rogers
Question for Jane Connor. Where would Matthew Berry rank all time as a Bond villain? Full ppr.
- [01:14]
Matthew Berry
Oh, it's a good question.
- [01:15]
Jay
Yeah, somewhere in between Mads Mikkelsen's Le Chiffre and Goldfinger. Yeah, in between that.
- [01:22]
Connor Rogers
Sure.
- [01:23]
Matthew Berry
That's fair enough. Fair enough. I'm trying to think of all the different Bond villains.
- [01:28]
Connor Rogers
Did you dress like one tonight on the Tonight Show? I saw your audition.
- [01:31]
Jay
I thought Scaramunga from Man with the Golden Gun, played by Chris Blake. There's a lot of Bond villains.
- [01:36]
Matthew Berry
This is the big tall one. I forget the big tall one, but that's right. Can you imagine if I dressed as a Bond villain and I ran into Pierce Brosnan's dressing room? Let's see what you do now.
- [01:49]
Fantasy Football Happy Hour Announcer
Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry.
- [01:54]
Connor Rogers
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Happy hour, Fallon. Tonight, drinks for free.
- [01:59]
Matthew Berry
The entire staff. The entire staff of the Tonight show starring Jimmy Fallon. They could not have been more gracious, not just to me, but my entire family. I brought my wife Beth, my son Connor, my daughters Brooke and Samantha. Whole, you know, we entomous. I brought the whole. I roll deep.
- [02:18]
Connor Rogers
Yes, clearly.
- [02:19]
Matthew Berry
But no, you know what? Like, they had, you know, they had gifts for each one of my kids and snacks. And like, they could not have been more gracious or welcoming to me and my entire family. The entire staff could not have been better. And so anyway, we just had an amazing experience, you know, not just me, but be Able to do something like that and do it with my family. You know what I mean? Like it, you know, like my kids don't get that impressed with me.
- [02:44]
Connor Rogers
But like this was a special one.
- [02:46]
Matthew Berry
This was cool. Like, we're in the dressing room before the show and like Jimmy stops by just to say hi for a few minutes. What's her.
- [02:51]
Connor Rogers
Two time guests.
- [02:52]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, two time guests.
- [02:53]
Connor Rogers
The first time. I don't know if you get like, look at this.
- [02:56]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, right.
- [02:56]
Connor Rogers
It's just like some scrummy T shirt.
- [02:58]
Matthew Berry
I got swag that's stitched. It's pretty nice. You want to feel me? Go ahead. There you go. Nice.
- [03:03]
Connor Rogers
Felt.
- [03:04]
Matthew Berry
You can come over, Jayce. No touching. Yeah, it is very silky soft. And no, but like just Jimmy came by before the show and just again talk with my kids and my wife and just, you know, he's so gracious and so nice. Literally what you see on air, like that is him. Like it's not an act. So I think why he's so good because it's just like he's just himself and like anyway, the entire staff, you know, from Shout out producer Brett Harris, I have to say. But seriously, the. It was an unbelievable experience.
- [03:35]
Jay
Slick outfit last night, Matthew.
- [03:37]
Matthew Berry
Thank you very much.
- [03:38]
Jay
Looking like the T shirt blazer look.
- [03:40]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, like I look good, right? Yeah. Shout out executive.
- [03:43]
Jay
Yeah.
- [03:44]
Matthew Berry
Shout out to Amy Acton and the entire NBC Sports wardrobe department. Yeah, that's Amy. And Alexis always takes care of me. Yeah.
- [03:52]
Connor Rogers
Elite Instagram comment though on that picture said love what they did with your hair for the show.
- [03:57]
Matthew Berry
That was strong, man. That was strong.
- [04:00]
Connor Rogers
Great comment, Savage.
- [04:01]
Matthew Berry
Well, from Jimmy Fallon to Connor Rogers, definitely like not a drop in posting if anything.
- [04:08]
Connor Rogers
Questionable upgrade. Questionable.
- [04:11]
Matthew Berry
Very questionable.
- [04:12]
Connor Rogers
Listen, we got a one of our favorites that we do every single August. This is our breakouts and busts show. This is a time where we can kind of put our name on who we think is going to take the next step up and is going to outperform adp. And then we're going to do something that we can come back to regret. We're going to say who we're not maybe not drafting, but not at cost for sure. Our bust of the year. So this is a big one for us. But Matthew, you're going to start us off with a receiver that there's been a lot of talk about for breakouts, especially from his young quarterback in Michael Pennix who said everybody's aware of what Drake London is going to do this year.
- [04:47]
Drake London
It's been good, man. Drake obviously a Baller, you know, he's somebody that's gonna get the ball a lot this year. He did last year as well, you know, so that's, we definitely gonna find ways to, you know, make sure he have a great season this year and he deserving of it. You know, he puts in the work each and every day at practice, you know, not just on game days, but, you know, he take every route serious. And that's what you appreciate as a quarterback and your receivers go 100% all the time.
- [05:08]
Matthew Berry
Do you think he's a top 10 receiver in the league?
- [05:10]
Drake London
Yeah, for sure. Easy.
- [05:12]
Matthew Berry
You feel like he gets underappreciated a.
- [05:14]
Connor Rogers
Little bit sometimes nationally.
- [05:15]
Drake London
He won't after this year.
- [05:19]
Matthew Berry
Let's go.
- [05:20]
Connor Rogers
Michael Penix with big words.
- [05:21]
Sean McDermott
Yeah.
- [05:22]
Connor Rogers
For your fantasy breaking, by the way.
- [05:24]
Matthew Berry
What's he gonna say? Like, you know, the reporters, like, do you think He's a top 10 receiver in the league? What's Mike Pentax gotta say?
- [05:28]
Jay
Leading the witness a little bit.
- [05:31]
Connor Rogers
And his reaction was kind of like that.
- [05:32]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, of course. Yeah, of course. But you know, I think some of the comments there were actually instructive where he just said, you know, he got the ball a lot last year, he's gonna get the ball a lot this year. Like he wasn't lying. In the three starts that Michael Penix Jr. Made last year, Drake London had a 40 chair friend of the podcast, friend of the show, Detective Drake London. You know, and what you like about London's game is, and we talked about this when we interviewed him last year, is that like he actually works out of the slot. They've used him recently more in the slots. 47% of his targets last year came in the slots. So they're manufacturing kind of these easy touches for him. And you know what's weird is I think you, I could, I can hear some people saying like drink, London breakout. Like he hasn't actually broken out yet. Like we've been waiting for it. Like he, you know, he has this top eight pick, draft capital. He's been an alpha, the number one wide receiver of the Falcons ever since he came in the league. But he just, he's had inconsistent quarterback play. He had Arthur Smith as an offense coordinator last year, Kirk Cousins, you know, running around on like half an Achilles in the, in the 14 starts with Kirk Cousins, Drake London had one 100 yard game, which is criminal to think about. Like, you know, oh, let's make sure we get Ray, Ray McLeod. What are we doing? But in two of the three starts that Penix made Drake London over 100 yards. I have it. Wide receiver nine. I think he joins the tier this year of elite wide receiver ones like the guy that can be the best wide receiver on your team, which he hasn't been to date in his NFL career.
- [07:02]
Connor Rogers
Connor, he's got the quarterback that fits the skill set. Right. A guy like Michael Penix that could drive the ball outside the numbers that will throw to receivers. As we saw in college, he would pepper Roma dunes with targets over and over again even when he was covered. And that fits the profile of a guy like Drake London that can make a play above the rim. Or Jay, he could also separate at that size.
- [07:21]
Matthew Berry
Yeah.
- [07:21]
Jay
The couple things you love about Drake London, one is the fact that he gets played in the slot so much. He's kind of in that Zach Robinson offense, kind of the potentially the 2021 Cooper cup role where you're moving him all around the formation. He's getting a lot of work out of the slot which raises his floor. And then the second thing that I really like about Drake London is he had a great year last year statistically and that was with a mess of a quarterback situation. A team that ran the ball a ton. And here's the thing, he didn't have a single reception of 40 yards or more last year. Drake London, there was no three point shooting in that offense and now they have the ultimate bomber and Michael Penix is going to throw it deep and I think really activate that aspect.
- [07:57]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, just to give us just to give a stat of what you and Connor both talking about in terms of the depth there with Penix last year he had a 12.7 average upper target 12.7 a dot compared to like just 10 with Kirk Cousins. So I mean like they are going to take deeper shots to Drake London. Darnell Mooney too once he gets healthy as well. I think the Falcons offense is going to be really interesting for fantasy because I really think it's going to be those three guys. I think it's going to be Drake London, Mooney and of course Bijon Robinson. We will see if all the Kyle Pitts Buzz for the 8 billionth year in a row actually pans out. I am not there yet on Kyle Pitts and it's one of the reasons why I am so in on Detective Drake London.
- [08:38]
Connor Rogers
And for context of the segment, people hear Drake London, they know that's a popular name. His ADP is 21. Matthew has him 15th. That is a big difference. That's believing in the breakout. Breakout that means spots Higher. Jay, what about you?
- [08:48]
Matthew Berry
Somebody that takes the next. Wherever he's perceived in the fantasy football industry, we are saying with these breakouts, these are people that take the next step. So again, where he's being drafted, he's being drafted as a wide receiver. 2. I say this year he's a wide receiver. 1.
- [09:00]
Connor Rogers
JSTabs watching live on YouTube. Hot take. Honestly, Drake London could lead the league in touchdown receptions this year. I don't think that's scorching.
- [09:07]
Matthew Berry
I don't think that's scorching. I think that's a. Yeah, it's not hot enough. J Stabs. I like it. I like the take.
- [09:14]
Connor Rogers
All time single season receiving touchdowns record. Let's go to that. J Stabs.
- [09:18]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, come on. J Stabs. If we're going to do a Randy Moss. Yeah, exactly. Predict 27 touchdowns. Now we're talking. But I do like the fact, I will say I do like the fact, you know, we've been doing live on YouTube at noon every single day and this year. And I like the fact that commenter is always a big part of the show. Like the last couple of days we've been getting a lot of hot takes. I like this hot take. I like putting your name to it or your made up screen name. I like putting your made up screen name to a bold prediction. So keep it up. Happy hour nation. Do we ever come up with a.
- [09:51]
Jay
First happy hour nation?
- [09:53]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, we need a.
- [09:55]
Connor Rogers
It's kind of Crazy Season 4 and.
- [09:56]
Matthew Berry
We, we haven't come up with a.
- [09:57]
Connor Rogers
You know, for the audience.
- [09:59]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, yeah.
- [10:01]
Connor Rogers
Happy hour attenders.
- [10:02]
Matthew Berry
Happy hour. We have to think of like what's the name? That's a question for the audience. What would you like to be called, you know, like nation? The groove. The drinkers. The drinkers. Yeah, the barflies.
- [10:14]
Connor Rogers
The best ones will be. Will be rolled into the show as you see with jstabs on the lower. We'll get some suggestions there. All right, from Drake London J to Tucker Croft. There we go.
- [10:25]
Matthew Berry
Yeah.
- [10:25]
Jay
Breakout candidate, Tucker croft. The immortal Mr. Croft. Here's what I like about Tucker. Tucker Craft. He led all tight ends in yards after catch last season. He's one of the most explosive tight ends in the league. Yards after contact as well. He's just an excellent player after the catch and I think that this muddled Green Bay wide receiver room, I think it plays to Tucker Craft's upside because of all these guys. Between Jaden Reed, who's in a walking boot, Matthew golden, who's never played a regular season, NFL snap Romeo Dobbs, who kind of left the team briefly last year and then came back and is okay. Don Tavian Wicks, who keep on waiting to break out. There's just a lot of dudes in and I don't know what we're going to get out of any of them. But I know what Tucker Craft's talent is. I know what Jordan Love's rapport is. And when you look at the tight end yak leaders last year, like tucker craft was 9.1 yards after the catch. Last year, the second best in the NFL was George Killer, 6.7. That's a massive gap. This guy is super explosive. And I think overall I just want to buy shares of Jordan Love in a way because I think that he was banged up all last season. He ended 2023 playing like one of the five best quarterbacks in the league. I think he has that upside still in him. And Tucker Croft is a way to tap into that upside.
- [11:37]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, look, I like to call I'm a tight end. I'm a tight end. 11. And so you mentioned it, right? They have all these wide receivers that are sort of interchangeable into that offense. I mean, we know Reed plays in the slot, but just they have a lot of moving parts there. Except Tucker Kraft, who he is their tight end. He is a big red zone threat. He's the one guy whose role isn't going to switch in and out based on personnel or scheme or who else is on the field for him. And he, from an NFL perspective, broke out last year. I don't think he's broken out fantasy wise yet. He became a popular waiver wire pickup last year. But there's certainly a scenario with some touchdown luck where you see Tucker Kraft being just a weekly in and out, you know, tight end, one starter every single week.
- [12:16]
Connor Rogers
I like the point about the consistency, Matthew. He's a great blocking tight end, so that keeps him on the field and he's an adequate pass catcher. You brought up the yakj. He just runs through people he has, from college to the NFL. It's a translatable skill set for me. Guys, I'm gonna go back.
- [12:29]
Matthew Berry
I have a good idea. What about Happy Hour Hive? Like the Happy Hour Hive. Triple H. That's available, right? No one's used that, right?
- [12:37]
Connor Rogers
No.
- [12:37]
Matthew Berry
Oh, good.
- [12:38]
Connor Rogers
Yeah. Oh, certainly not pro wrestling.
- [12:41]
Matthew Berry
Where's the Triple H?
- [12:42]
Jay
Where's my triple hydrate?
- [12:44]
Matthew Berry
What? Okay.
- [12:45]
Jay
Yeah, Triple H, that'll play. So I think we can do it better.
- [12:50]
Connor Rogers
I like workshopping.
- [12:51]
Matthew Berry
I do like, I mean, Triple H. Obviously we can't do. I was just doing that for the joke.
- [12:54]
Connor Rogers
But I do Happy hour hooligans is what bad guy said.
- [12:58]
Matthew Berry
Happy hour Hive. I kind of like happy hour hive.
- [13:01]
Jay
No, but why is it a. I didn't get it.
- [13:02]
Matthew Berry
It's a hive. You haven't heard that.
- [13:04]
Connor Rogers
Like a collection of people that supports.
- [13:07]
Jay
At a bar though.
- [13:07]
Connor Rogers
Like you're in the Tucker Craft hive.
- [13:10]
Jay
Yeah, no, I get that. But it's like, it's like happy album.
- [13:13]
Matthew Berry
You know, Beyonce's fans of the Beehive, which I know you're a big fan of.
- [13:17]
Connor Rogers
Associated My family. Yeah, yeah, the bad guy. Rereal. Happy hour Hooligans.
- [13:20]
Jay
Hooligans at least has a, you know, implied.
- [13:22]
Connor Rogers
Hooligans is nice.
- [13:24]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, yeah. The drunks. Where are drunks? Drunk on fantasy football.
- [13:33]
Connor Rogers
I'm going back to the wide receiver. Well, here Marvin Harrison Jr. You know the name. You probably were disappointed last year based on expectations, especially how good somebody like Malik Neighbors was. Marv is still good, but he needs to be great to meet his expectations. And because he wasn't great last year, guys, his ADP right now he's being drafted as the 17th wide receiver. So Marvin Harrison finishing as a top 15 receiver this year is outperforming expectations. I think that's a low bar for him. I mean you just look at the promising side. In 16 healthy games last year, he had at least 20% target share in 12 of them. He was tied for second in the NFL in end zone targets last season 18. So there should be some positive progression there. And then you just look at air yards. I mean he's third among wide receivers and percentage of his team's air yards. So he's a true wide receiver one in his offense. But Matthew, they got to scheme him some touches. It can't all just be him having to make plays down the field above the rim in tight quarters like that.
- [14:25]
Matthew Berry
Ridiculous. Guys hanging all over him and then turns around back shoulder one handed.
- [14:31]
Connor Rogers
The talent didn't go anywhere, right? If you believed in the talent of Marvin Harrison Jr. As a super prospect, you should still believe in it. In year two, I will happily draft him as one of the first 15 wide receivers off the board. He's not being viewed as that.
- [14:44]
Jay
Jay. Yeah, he's going like in terms of just wide receiver positioning, he's going 10 spots after Brian Thomas Jr. Which would have been unthinkable 12 months ago. Obviously we've got more data since then, but at the same time, I think with Marvin still plenty of upside. So I have to regress to the fact that he was a generational prospect. I think another key thing is that Kyla Murray was one of the worst deep ball throwers in the NFL last year, and a lot of that was his targets. To Marv, where it just didn't seem like that, the timing, they weren't on the same page. Kyle Omari, back in like 2021, where the Cardinals are competing for the one seed, he's just about the best deep ball thrower in the NFL. He was in that level of conversation, and so he's probably not that, but I don't think he's one of the worst either. So that should regress and Marv should benefit there, too.
- [15:23]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, I mean, I think they're actually, you know, it's very small samples, but I think they're actually also trying to put him in the slot a little bit. They're trying to move him inside a.
- [15:31]
Connor Rogers
Little bit of him preseason.
- [15:32]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, we've seen a little bit, just whatever, a couple of snaps, but get him going. The fact is, like, how can we, how can we get. He's one of our most talented playmakers. How can we figure out ways to get him the ball? And so, yeah, Kyler definitely struggled. They just weren't on the same page. There were definitely times last year where he was clearly open and Kyler just missed him. Just, just absolutely missed him. So I think betting on the talent and the opportunities is smart here.
- [15:55]
Jay
Just the institutional incentives as well. If you're the Arizona Cardinals, what have you spent all off season thinking about in terms of your offense? Like, it's how to maximize Marvin Harrison Jr. Thinking about how to maximize Zay Jones as your wide receiver, too. Like, this offense is going to live through Martin Harrison. They spent, what, the fourth pick in the draft on Marv. Like, they need this to work, and he's their best path to being an elite.
- [16:14]
Connor Rogers
It's him and Trey McBride. That's, that's who gets the other thing.
- [16:17]
Matthew Berry
And again, I always talk about this. We talked about it yesterday with, with Travis Hunter. But like, again, you have to think about just the people in the building. A football team is like any other workplace with people, you know, that. People that work and there's, you know, there's, there's, there's bosses that you may not agree with their decision making. There's, you know, there's internal politics, everything like that. Jonathan Gannon is like, I just tell you, if the Cardinals fail this year or don't show some improvement, I got News for you. Like if they're sitting there going like all right, well we can either get rid of Jonathan Gannon or Marvin Harrison Jr. I can tell you who's sticking there next year and It's Marvin Harrison Jr. I mean they need Marvin Harrison Jr. To work like he was a. You know, they put a ton of draft capital into him and so if he doesn't work this year, that's going to be on the offensive coaching staff and so that's going to be a challenge.
- [17:03]
Connor Rogers
How about a running back Matthew as a breakout?
- [17:07]
Matthew Berry
How about again this is a, this is a trendy name but again we're talking about taking the next step. Chase Brown of the Cincinnati Bengals. Look, I think everyone saw what he did down the stretch last year. I'm at running back 11, I think I'm at 23 overall. He's currently going in the 27 to 30 range overall according to Fantasy Life ADP across the various sites. So I think he becomes an RB one this year. I think most people right now drafting him as RB2. Six of the final eight games last year, 19 or more fantasy points since he became the starter. The knock on Brown was he can't be in every down back and yet he averaged over 23 touches a game from week nine on for the Cincinnati Bengals it's going to be a high octane offense, a offense that scores a lot and his competition for touches right now, Samajp Ryan and six round rookie Taj Brooks. And so I don't mind actually a late round flyer on Taj Brooks. But let's be serious, like Chase Brown has talent and opportunity. So I just, I have it. Running back 11. I think I might even be too low on him, Connor. But to me he showed everything you needed last year to be a true workhorse running back. He's got the role of Joe Mixon with more explosiveness.
- [18:17]
Connor Rogers
That's the key.
- [18:18]
Matthew Berry
More explosiveness and more pass catching ability.
- [18:20]
Connor Rogers
That's the key with guys like this that you're, when you're unsure of the volume you're like, okay, are they explosive enough to make it count with him? You get the best of both worlds. You do, you get all the volume in an offense that will be in the red area a lot which means he has a good chance to have touchdown equity. They're wider receivers are great but you're going to score rushing touchdowns. You know who isn't? Joe Burrow is not going to score rushing touchdowns. This is Cha, you brought the running back depth chart. This is Chase Brown it's all Chase Brown there and he's talented enough to maximize that as well.
- [18:48]
Matthew Berry
Yeah. And Robocentar says I'm aiming for either Bucky or Chase Brown with my second round pick. I love that. That's right. Like I was about to say, if you go wide receiver in the first, I'm thrilled to get Chase Brown as my number one running back in the second. You can get him. And I'm good with Bucky Irving as well. We like, this is a, this is a pro Bucky Irving show. Make no mistake. I know there are anti Bucky Irving shows out there, but we are, we are firmly pro Bucky Irving and obviously we love Chase Brown. He's my breakout again. I think he takes the step from a RB2 this year or, you know, a round two guy to somebody that you're drafting in the first round next year. The other thing that I think, I think people are just. I don't want to say they're sleeping on Chase Brown because he's obviously a well known commodity, but I just think they're not ready to fully commit because they're like, it's still a smaller spac. He only did it for half a season. Just a little nerd. I'm. I'm all in on the talent and again, the opportunity.
- [19:40]
Jay
Yeah. He's also just the distant fourth most famous person on that offense, which I think just leads people to naturally underrate him.
- [19:47]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, exactly. I mean, he's, you know. And you got Mike Kosicki too, of course. Yeah, sure.
- [19:52]
Jay
The greatest song, first downs.
- [19:54]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Andre Yoshi. Yeah, exactly. Going back to the better joke.
- [19:58]
Connor Rogers
Going back to. It's all right. You could take it.
- [19:59]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, that's fine.
- [20:00]
Connor Rogers
Going back to the tight end.
- [20:01]
Jay
Well, here, Jason, I am, my other breakout candidate joining the Tucker Craft Hive is the Kincaid Hive, Don Kincaid, who had a down year last year. But Matthew, as you kind of vaguely reported journalistic exploits from chatting to people at the combine, Don Kincaid was hurt last year and he's had to deal with it for all, all the season.
- [20:22]
Matthew Berry
I asked a member of the Bill's offensive coaching staff, Sean McDonough, and I said, what happened with Kincaid last year? And he was just like, he was hurt, man. He was hurt all year long. We couldn't get him going. He was just out there gutting it out. Mark my word. He literally said to me, this coach knew what I did, knew who I was, everything like that. He literally said to me, he says, mark my words, Dalton Kincaid's a sleeper. Next Year, he's going to have a monster year, fully healthy. So. And there's, there's other reasons for optimism here.
- [20:52]
Jay
Yeah, and also Dolce, they spent a first round pick on him two years ago, which I think you still have to regress to that level of talent, particularly if you're going to at least minimize a bit of last year with the injuries. And then secondly, Dolce came on our show and talked about how the steep the learning curve is with Josh Allen in terms of creating out of structure and getting on the same page. And last year Don King K. The stat is via PFFs Nathan Janky, who does a great job. He had the third most uncatchable targets for a tight end last season. Which like, it's not like his quarterback is Desmond Riddle.
- [21:23]
Connor Rogers
Right.
- [21:23]
Jay
Josh Allen, like that shouldn't happen. Like they're going to get on the page more often. So there's upside there. There's upside with health. Now the caveat is the Dawson Knox does play more than you would like if you're drafting Dalton Kincaid. But I think there's positive correlation here where the better Dalton Kincaid plays, the more time that he is going to earn. And it's not like they have to play Dawson Knox all the time. Kincaid is earning targets and, and playing really well. Then he's just going to play more.
- [21:46]
Matthew Berry
And they played Connor, they played different roles in this offense. That's the other thing. Like even if like Duncan Kincaid's not a tight end like a big slot.
- [21:54]
Connor Rogers
Receiver compared to a guy parked in a line of scrimmage, that's how exactly.
- [21:57]
Matthew Berry
Right.
- [21:58]
Connor Rogers
That's, that's not even. They shouldn't even be in the same position group.
- [22:01]
Matthew Berry
That's my point.
- [22:01]
Jay
Here's the thing with Dalton Kincaid, the last point here is so he's going like tight end 14, tight end 15. There is, there are very real worlds where he is the number one target for Josh Allen this season. Josh Allen just won the mvp. Josh Allen might be the best football player on earth and Don Kincaid might be plausibly his most targeted player. Particularly with your man Khalil Shakir dealing with a little.
- [22:20]
Matthew Berry
Yes, that is the way. That is the correct pronunciation. Yes. Khalil Shakir, you got Keon Coleman there. There's not a lot of proven options.
- [22:28]
Jay
Josh Palmer.
- [22:29]
Matthew Berry
Josh Palmer, of course, but you know, new team, he's learning a new system as well. Like there's not a lot of like guys there that have a ton of experience with the exception of maybe Shakir that have that experience With Josh Allen. So, Kincaid, I like the call a lot.
- [22:44]
Connor Rogers
My last one here, guys, for breakouts. We've talked about him a lot, but I just. I can't wrap my head around Travis Hunter right now in terms of why he's being undervalued. If you just told somebody this, this guy won the Heisman, I'm with you. The team traded the house to take him second overall. You'd be like, okay, in fantasy, he's got to be taken as a top 20 to 25 wide receiver.
- [23:02]
Matthew Berry
Preach.
- [23:02]
Connor Rogers
He's drafted as wide receiver 30. And it's because everybody is so afraid that he's going to play some defense. He's still going to play a ton of offense. We just saw 88% of the offensive snaps with Trevor Lawrence.
- [23:13]
Matthew Berry
And here's the other thing. Like, Connor, you can speak to this better than anyone, but the fact of the matter is, is that I actually, I have no concerns about the defense. Because here's the thing. Even if he plays 20% of the snaps on defense, however many snaps he plays on defense, all that means is that when he does play snaps, offensively, they're going to use him, right? Like, he's not going to decoy. He's not going to be out there running wind sprints. Like, if he is on the field because his snaps are limited, because they need him on the other side of the ball as well. Like, he will be targeted. So even if he plays 50% of the offensive snaps, the fact of the matter is, is he's still going to have like a, you know, a 20% target share. I mean, like, on those routes, like, he's always going to be one of the first two reads. And so, like, all he needs is like eight targets a game. Like, you know, six to eight targets a game, which I think he. They're going to be throwing a ton. And Travis Hunter, I want all the shares of Travis Hunter I can get. I'm all in. I'm with you, Brandon.
- [24:11]
Connor Rogers
On YouTube, I think with Hunter, people are worried about Lawrence being bad and BTJ being the alpha dog in that offense. The BTJ point, I get it. But you have to scale back here and realize he's the only guy on this roster that saw more than 53 targets last year.
- [24:26]
Matthew Berry
And by the way, I don't have the stat off the top of my head. Maybe producer Damien, maybe you can get in my ear and give me the exact stat. But like Christian Kirk and Evan Ingram, I want to say over 200 targets or something like that, there's a ton of vacated targets on this and yes. And I also think that as great as Brian Thomas Jr. Is, and he is, but like, he's not somebody that's going to get 15 targets a game. They're going to take some deeper shots with him. Again, what Conor said, what I've said, like, you do not put as much draft capital in your very first job as general manager or head coach into Travis Hunter and not make him work. Yes, BTJ is going to get a ton of targets, but so is Travis Hunter. And for the Travis, the Trevor Lawrence being bad. Whatever you think of Trevor Lawrence, I assure you he's better than whatever the Giants rolled out last year at quarterback when Malik Nabors was wide receiver six. Like, ultimately, when you are talented, and we think Travis Hunter is insanely talented, when you are talented, you can earn targets at a high share. Give me all the Travis Hunter I can get. 1,000%.
- [25:29]
Connor Rogers
We're in.
- [25:30]
Matthew Berry
All right.
- [25:31]
Connor Rogers
Game on, fellas. The NBA, of course, coming to NBC. The superstars, the rivalries. And of course, yes, you hear it. Round Ball Rock, that theme song. It's all back. NBA tip off, October 2021 on NBC. And Peacock, guys, how about the throwback here?
- [25:49]
Matthew Berry
I don't think the Pelicans existed.
- [25:52]
Connor Rogers
I don't think so either.
- [25:54]
Jay
Just remember Matthew Richmond is retired, so we can't talk about.
- [25:58]
Matthew Berry
But Detl Shrimp is still around, Right? Okay, good. Thank you.
- [26:01]
Jay
Back up, pal. Forward for the Charlotte Ornaments.
- [26:03]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, right, right. And the Davis brothers. Right. Dale.
- [26:09]
Connor Rogers
We're taking our first.
- [26:12]
Matthew Berry
Antonio. Dale and Antonio when we're back.
- [26:16]
Connor Rogers
Some guys were nervous to draft busts are coming up right after this.
- [26:22]
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- [27:23]
Matthew Berry
Morning. One sausage McMuffin with egg, please.
- [27:26]
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- [27:27]
Matthew Berry
Wait. Let's negotiate. How's about you throw in hash browns For a dollar.
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- [27:35]
Matthew Berry
Take it or leave it.
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- [27:55]
Sean McDermott
Update on James. That's probably a question you guys have. James and I had a good conversation yesterday. We talked about warming up. He agreed to warm up but not play due to his situation right now. So that's where we're at. So no change really.
- [28:11]
Jay
Overall, do you expect him to practice?
- [28:14]
Sean McDermott
Yeah. Again, let's just move on. We can talk about the guys who played. I think that's the right thing to do and the fair thing to do right now. So James situation is James situation. And let's talk about the the team.
- [28:31]
Connor Rogers
That was Bill's coach, Sean McDermott. I like the situation is the situation. That's a good excuse. My life.
- [28:37]
Jay
It's not saying anything.
- [28:39]
Connor Rogers
Somebody asked you why you didn't do something. Well, the situation is the situation.
- [28:42]
Jay
The air is the air.
- [28:43]
Connor Rogers
Anyways, he's expected to practice today. That's per Joe Piscaglia, who does a great job covering the Bills.
- [28:49]
Matthew Berry
Clearly. James Cook watches Fallon tonight. If you want to see the full segment, you can go to YouTube, by the way, and just search my name or go to my Twitter. Only my social media handles because I am plugging the hell out of it because I'm all proud of it. But one of the things I said on the Tonight Show, Jimmy asked me, hey, give me a player that you don't think he does as well this year. And I said, well, James Cook actually. Which leads us into his bus, into our bus. And so these are just again, we want to be careful here with players that we don't think live up to ADP. His current ADP, he's going 35 overall. He's going his running back according to Fantasy Life Consensus adp@fasylife.com and one of the things I said to Jimmy is like I said, well, first off, he's holding out. So okay, that got solved apparently today. But under 15 touches a game last year he just didn't touch the ball a ton, which is 26 of them on running backs. Right. He had a 48% Snapchat that ranked 38th at the position. He was in a part time role and he's another guy that has competition with his quarterback for goal line touches. Now I know he had 16 rushing touchdowns, 18 total touchdowns last year. But then you think about, all right, 16 rushing touchdowns last year. The two seasons prior to last year, he had four rushing touchdowns combined. So even if he does more than two a year, I don't know that we're going to get 16 again this year. It feels like just there's going to be a regression to the mean there. This is somebody. He played on only 13% of third downs. He's not involved in the passing game quite a bit here. An 8% target share, which is barely top 40among running backs. So you're like, unless he's getting the touchdowns, like, he was so skewed by those touchdowns last year. And I just, I don't know that you can count on them, Connor.
- [30:33]
Connor Rogers
Right. And then you deal with the question that running backs, as we've seen over the years, that get into camp late because of holdouts or get into the season late because of holdouts traditionally have terrible years. Like, I'm sorry, there's just no way around it. They traditionally vastly underperform the year that got them into the contract holdout situation. I'm not saying James Cook is going to have a terrible year, but. But it's building up to one of many things that Matthew just said. Combined with that situation, combined with that, the quarterback runs for a ton of touchdowns as well. You start to get like, okay, I maybe don't want to be in this business.
- [31:03]
Matthew Berry
He's going as running back 13. I'm at running back 17. I have him around 45 overall. He's going 35th overall. So like basically a full round behind. And honestly, I think I might be too high on him. Like I might move him down a notch or two. Jay. But the longer this goes, this. Yeah, just. Just bad vibes. Bad vibes. And they like Ray Davis there.
- [31:22]
Jay
Yeah. And also the Bills were, they were 13 and three last year before they sat everyone the final week. They were in scoring position a lot. Just law of averages is you're not going to win 13 out of your first 16 games again, even though their schedule is fairly favorable. Yeah, they may, but the win total is lower than that. So just naturally you'd expect less scoring opportunities for James Cook. And last year was such an outlier in terms of his touchdown total.
- [31:44]
Connor Rogers
This segment is going to be very running back heavy because traditionally those are the guys that have the highest bust potential from injury regression contract situations. Jay, though, you're going out on a limb and going against any of those.
- [31:55]
Jay
Yeah, I don't like to use the word bust with Saquon Barkley, who is probably going to be really good this year, but don't like to pay for peak seasons, career seasons for a running back the year after. We've seen this too many times. Christian McCaffrey is the number one running back drafted last year. How did he go 20, 21? Jonathan Taylor, how did he go the following year? Like, I just don't want to pay for that because there's just the more carries that you get, the more strain you put on your body, the more likely you are to have a weaker year the following year. And Saquon Barkley last year had 482 touches between the regular season and the postseason is completely insane. And also he had relative health for his offensive line, for his quarterback. And if either of those things start to go down, then all of a sudden the floors in Saquon, in terms of his fantasy profile, they come more to the fore. Doesn't get much work in the passing game, doesn't get goal line carries because of the tush push. And he was very dependent last year on just breaking these 70 yard runs. And I get it, he's Saquon Barclays, probably better positioned than anyone to do that, but you're just not going to replicate that at the same level. So look where Eagles fans get very upset with me when I talk negative about the Eagles. I got nothing against these.
- [32:59]
Matthew Berry
They know you're a Giants homer.
- [33:01]
Jay
Yeah, they know I'm a big, big Giants fan. So you're very upset when I say Jalen Hurst isn't a top five quarterback, which, by the way, he's not. But Bryce Harper is my favorite baseball player, Philadelphia sports fans. So look, I just think with Saquon, you're just paying too much for last season. And there's just a lot of regression indicators this year.
- [33:17]
Matthew Berry
The other thing is, is I don't have a stat for this, but I feel like last year, like last year was a something to prove year. Oh, the Giants didn't want me. And that, you know, the hard knocks clip that went so hard, you know, it was just a little bit like, you know, running back shouldn't get paid. And then, you know, I'm going to show you, right? And the Eagles were like, we're going to get back to the Super Bowl. You know, the year before had been tough by Eagles standards. Like, you know, there have been coaching issues and everything like that. So it just felt like the entire team, especially with Saquon, had a chip on their shoulder. We're going to show you, we're going to prove you. I'm not saying they don't have that same desire, that same hunger, but last year no team was more run heavy in the NFL than the Philadelphia Eagles. And previously the past couple of years under Ceriani, prior to last year, there were sort of like in the, you know, they were like 20 to 22. They were in that range. So they're like a bottom 10, you know, or a top 10, depending on how you want to look at it in terms of, you know, being run heavy. But they weren't like, you know, 32nd. They weren't like the, the most run heavy team in the NFL. So I think even if they just become like a normal run heavy team as opposed to a very strong, you know, an insanely lopsided run heavy team, like, I think some of that comes down, I could see them wanting to, again, to your point, about 482 touches, like the Eagles, rightfully so, you know, are like, we want to defend our Super Bowl. We think we're going to be playing in February in San Francisco on NBC. I'm a company man. And. And so they're going to want to limit some of those touches as well. Yeah.
- [34:43]
Jay
I also just think like if you ask the average football fan who's a bigger injury risk this year, Christian McCaffrey or Saquon Barkley, pretty much everyone's saying Christian McCaffrey because he was hurt last year. It's like, I don't know, I feel like it's the guy who had 482 touches last year as opposed to the guy who appears to be fully healthy in camp and didn't play that much last year, which was bad because he got injured, but also didn't put as many miles on. So it's why I think it's like, I don't think it's a big gap anyway.
- [35:06]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, I mean, I have McCaffrey at three, I have Saquon Barkley at running back four. I have both, obviously as first rounders this year. But there are, I've seen drafts where Saquon Barkley goes number one overall. I've seen him be the number one running back off the board. And I think we're sitting here saying, like, there are other players we'd like at that position.
- [35:23]
Connor Rogers
That's the whole point of this exercise is at cost. Right. You're not saying James Cook is going to be not even flex worthy. You're not saying Saquon Barkley is going to finish as outside the top 20 running back.
- [35:33]
Jay
No, it's just that if he's Aube 6 and that's a disappointing kind of season for you drafted.
- [35:37]
Connor Rogers
Yes. That is a bust of a season compared to what you paid and that's exactly how I feel about Breece hall right now.
- [35:42]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, fair.
- [35:43]
Connor Rogers
I mean Breece hall, you will draft him as a top 15 running back. You will use a top 40 fantasy pick on him right now. You will be taking him probably over George Kittle, even Devonte Adams, Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison, Kenneth Walker and Amarian Hampton. That's the conversation here. I think Breece hall is going to catch a lot of short passes. I think he's going to split a backfield with Braylon Allen and even Isaiah Davis. Am I drafting that running back in the top 15 that Sharon carries and then dealing with touchdown equity to not only those running backs but his own quarterback, Justin Fields, like, would it shock you, Matthew, if Justin Fields runs for more touchdowns than Breece hall this year?
- [36:17]
Matthew Berry
It would not shock me. Not at all. In fact, I think I would love to know the odds on that. I think I'd rather bet the Justin Fields side of that certainly. Because again, he's never been a guy that they use a ton at the goal line. They're going to use Justin Fields leg like you have to, you have to have designed runs for him at the goal line as well. Last year, under 15 fantasy points in seven of his final line games, he's never had more than five rushing touchdowns in a game like his. He's never been a big touchdown scorer. His calling card has been, you know, big usage and these explosive plays and his usage in the passing game and that's going to happen this year. But there's just, there's more mouths to feed and whereas before, I mean I, you know, he's currently going like as running back 14 and that feels a little rich.
- [37:03]
Connor Rogers
It's just a matter of like do you value him more once again than Kenneth Walker, Marion Hampton and depending on what league you're in, some other higher end guys. So it's. Yeah, it just comes down to at cost. We have another YouTube comment here from Sean Murphy. If Connor feels this strongly about Hall, I take that as gospel. You know, it just scares you a little bit. But yes, I am. I've said it on this show. I'm around the team more. I'm around the jets more than any other team in the NFL.
- [37:25]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, of course, because you cover them for sny. It's C N C o N N o R. By the way, Sean Murphy. By the way. Yeah. He's Connor with an O. Yeah.
- [37:34]
Jay
Sean Murphy.
- [37:34]
Matthew Berry
Not James Connor.
- [37:35]
Jay
Sean Murphy. Lots of time on his hands now he's in a time show with Drake Baldwin. It's baseball player Matthew.
- [37:40]
Matthew Berry
That's helpful. Baseball's the one you can play with a little white ball, right?
- [37:44]
Jay
Swing it back.
- [37:44]
Matthew Berry
Seams on it. Yeah. Is Paul Canerco still a baseball player?
- [37:49]
Connor Rogers
Yes.
- [37:50]
Matthew Berry
Yeah.
- [37:50]
Connor Rogers
Him and Shreg a loss.
- [37:53]
Jay
David Eckstein, Uniesky, Beck style.
- [37:56]
Matthew Berry
Sean Figgins.
- [37:57]
Connor Rogers
Oh, man. We're rolling with the throwback names.
- [37:59]
Matthew Berry
Yeah.
- [38:00]
Connor Rogers
How about another running back?
- [38:01]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, look again. The whole point just to exit. Echo your thoughts here. Connor. These are not. These are not thoughts about. I'm just Matthew Larris. I'm doing bicep curls right now to match Connor. I like with an E. I think.
- [38:16]
Connor Rogers
I'm just Connor with an E now. It's okay.
- [38:18]
Matthew Berry
100%. Yeah. The gun. We got the gun show. Let's move this. Look at that. Look at the gun show. Exactly.
- [38:24]
Connor Rogers
I'm already embarrassed.
- [38:25]
Matthew Berry
Let's go. Listen, you're a handsome man. It is what it is.
- [38:29]
Connor Rogers
Maybe I'll be on the tonight.
- [38:31]
Matthew Berry
Probably not.
- [38:31]
Jay
But Connor, when you compare your body to Matthew's on the aging curve, Matthew has the far superior body.
- [38:37]
Matthew Berry
Yes.
- [38:37]
Connor Rogers
It's based on. What did you say?
- [38:39]
Jay
The vocal unbelievable curve.
- [38:42]
Matthew Berry
Unbelievable.
- [38:43]
Connor Rogers
It's very good. It's very good.
- [38:45]
Matthew Berry
Call me in 30 years. See if you look this good. Joe Mix. It is a bust for me. Look, I just. I don't understand his ADP. He's currently going as running back 20. He's going inside the top 60 according to fantasy life consensus ADP. I'm at running back 31. I have him at 99 overall. He's going inside the top sixty. I'm at 99 overall. Joe Mixon just might be done. We don't know. But look, last year he was bottom 10 and avoided tackle rate among running backs with at least 100 rushes. He's almost 30 years old. He turned 29 in July. Of course, from week 10 on last year, 3.4 yards per carry. They kept running him no matter what for whatever reason. But this is a team last year in Houston that was 22nd and yards before contact on running back carries. Like it's not a great offensive line. They've done some shuffling, but I don't think you can sit here and argue with a straight face that, hey, their line got better. Trade their best player by getting rid of Laramie Tunsall. I know they wanted to and you know, there's some contract stuff, there's some business piece of that, but their line did not get better from last year without Laramie Tunsil. And so there's a chance that it is worse. He's already injured. It's an ankle injury, by the way. The same ankle that's been injured a lot last year previously. We know they want to pass more this year. One of the reasons why they have a new offensive coordinator this year is because they were so insistent on the run and so they weren't able to do it. So they brought it, you know, d' Ameco, Ryan's brought in a new offense coordinator to be like, can we start taking advantage of CJ Stroud, our best player here? Can we get him going? And then there's also the argument that like one of the reasons that Mixon worked in Houston to date is massive volume. Just, you know, insane volume. But that's not guaranteed here. Again, we don't know what Nick Chubb looks like. Maybe Woody Marks, the rookie spark. But like if he's not getting insane volume and because he's so inefficient, including the fact that he just might get hurt, it's insane to me that people are drafting him as a top 20 running back. Like, and you think about sort of the fifth, sixth round where he's going right now in some of these drafts. And you think about some of the other wide receivers you could have in the sixth round.
- [40:53]
Connor Rogers
Yeah, this one hasn't caught up yet.
- [40:55]
Matthew Berry
No, no, no. This is just.
- [40:57]
Connor Rogers
You're on auto draft.
- [40:58]
Matthew Berry
He's on a bus because of the ADP. It's just, it's too out of Taylor 417 says who's going to pick up the slack in Houston's backfield? Connor. Like they have Nick Chubb there and talk about Woody Marks a little bit because I don't know if people know about him.
- [41:10]
Connor Rogers
I mean, he could legitimately be their third down back. That's how talented of a pass catcher he is. That was what he was best at in college. He can run a full running back route. Tree is reliable. He's very good after the catch in the open field. He's not a guy that is going to slot into number one running back. 20 touches, like that's not his game. Sure, he is a pass catching third down back. So if you're in PPR and that's somebody that starts to see some volume, he becomes really interesting.
- [41:32]
Matthew Berry
But the argument becomes if it's like mixing on mixing and Chubb splitting first or second down or even if it's like 60, 30, first and second down, mixing a Chubb, and then you've got marks in as the third down back and, you know, and they're going more pass heavy. You've got a gumbo alley there and like, they're still, you know.
- [41:50]
Jay
Are we definitely done with Damien Pierce? We're definitely putting a line to Damien Pierce.
- [41:53]
Matthew Berry
They seem to be done.
- [41:54]
Jay
Why is he still on the team then? I don't get it.
- [41:56]
Matthew Berry
But, like, I. Houston strikes me as one of those teams as well, given the fact that we don't know what the sort of status is of Chubb. We've heard some, you know, camp reports that he's still not back to being Nick Chubb yet. But as this injury continues to linger on with Joe Mixon, Houston strikes me as one of the teams that'll be very active in the free agent market once camp cuts happen, because there'll be some names that get cut that you're like, oh, that guy's still out there.
- [42:19]
Connor Rogers
They're probably the number one team right now that the guy that leads them and carries Week one isn't on the roster. Like, if you had to pick a.
- [42:26]
Matthew Berry
Team because if Mixon's hurt, Gus Edwards, come on down.
- [42:30]
Connor Rogers
They need somebody.
- [42:32]
Jay
It feels like they're running back in. Like, the AFC Wild card round would be like Brace hall or something. Right.
- [42:37]
Connor Rogers
Like, they'll have Phillips says, does the Chubb club make a return this year?
- [42:41]
Matthew Berry
I don't think so, but I don't think he returns for the way we care about it. I mean, like, oh, can we suddenly start Nick Chubb? No. But do I think he makes return in the sense that he'll be a thorn in the side of Joe Mixon's fantasy value? Yes. Again, they were rolling Joe Mixon out there with a 3.4 yards per carry average. Like, they. They don't care about efficiency. It doesn't seem like at least they didn't last year volume. So, like, Nick Jobs, like, he may not be great at this stage of his career, but if he's. As long as he's reasonably close to Joe Mixon, he'll get some work and just. There's too much. There's too much uncertainty and murkiness here in terms of the injury and the role and the concern that this is just too high a price for me to pay.
- [43:22]
Connor Rogers
How about another big name running back? Jay?
- [43:25]
Jay
Yeah, stay on brand. Follow up my Saquon Barkley bust round One, with round two, Derrick Henry, another generational.
- [43:32]
Connor Rogers
But they work for you.
- [43:33]
Jay
Yeah. So look, here's the thing with Derek.
- [43:36]
Matthew Berry
You're just out here trolling people.
- [43:37]
Jay
I'm not projecting or anticipating that Derrick Henry is suddenly going to get worse because of his age. I'm just going to assume that Derrick Henry is going to be really good until we actually see that he's not. This in terms of him being a quote unquote bust, it's more about two things. One, I think Keaton Mitchell's really good and I think Kate Mitchell is going to play. Kate Mitchell. Mitchell is incredible in his limited sample in 2023. Now he's a full year removed off of the. Another year removed off of the Achilles. I think that they want to get him work and I think that like this Baltimore team, they're the favorite to win the Super Bowl. Like, I don't think they're going to be going all out revving the gas on Derrick Henry and like some Week 7 game because they have to like, I think they're going to have an eye towards the playoffs. Two, last year Derrick Henry was like six yards per carry and a touchdown per game. Like, are you going to exceed that? Like, I feel like that is the pinnacle of what we're going to get. And then the other thing is he plays half the snaps and he doesn't get any receiving work. So you need insane production on a per snap basis, which I get that he's Derek Henry, he may do it again, but I'm just not banking on replicating last year's production.
- [44:41]
Matthew Berry
I will tell you that. Hey, he can't keep getting away with it. I want to be one year. I want to jump off the bandwagon one year early, then one year too late. At some point it's going to catch up with Derek Henry. That article has been written for seven.
- [44:55]
Jay
Straight years, but that's not the article I'm writing. I still think he's going to be really good. I just don't think he's going to get the same usage and I don't think he's going to have the same amount of breakaway runs. I think that Keaton Mitchell is going to intrude on him more than like Justice Hill or whatever did last year. And I think that they're going to manage him more towards the playoffs.
- [45:11]
Matthew Berry
Well, listen, Kyle Adams here on YouTube literally says how much does keep Mitchell cut into King Henry's workload? I don't, my personal take is I don't think he actually cuts into Derrick Henry's workload at all. I do think he cuts into Justice Scott.
- [45:22]
Connor Rogers
That's the workload, that's the role. It's the same rule.
- [45:24]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, but I will say this. That's the thing about Derrick Henry. Derrick Henry plays first and second down. He's not involved in the passing game. He doesn't play, you know, a ton of snaps for a star running back. He actually, you know, when you start looking at the snaps, the difference is that when he is out there, he's getting the ball. He's getting the ball in high leverage situations. The reason why I'm not ready to bail on Derrick Henry yet is because, well, he may not get the same usage that he did in terms of like, you know, 20, 22 touches a game. Although I wouldn't bet against him. I just think he's the, he's a genetic freak of nature. Derrick Henry is like, he just, he is the exception that proves the rule. Right. And remember, this is a guy that like, you know, didn't play a lot this first couple of years. So while he's 31 years old, he's not as he has less mileage than perhaps some other 31 years old. But the other big thing to me is that I think the touchdowns remain. I think he is a lock. He is a lock for 12 plus touchdowns this year because they don't want Lamar keeping at the goal line. Unlike some other mobile quarterbacks, they don't want Lamar touching it. And so the whole reason to have a Derrick Henry on your team is when you get in close and the Ravens are obviously going to be in scoring position quite often this year is to give it to 22.
- [46:35]
Connor Rogers
Mauricio108. Would you trust, who would you trust more? Henry's upside versus CMC's health concerns?
- [46:41]
Matthew Berry
Trust more. Trust is a strong word here.
- [46:45]
Connor Rogers
I mean it's Derek Henry for me. I just have the fear of CMC getting hurt every single year at this point. And I just think. Exactly what you just said, Matthew. I'm getting double digit touchdowns from Derek Henry basically on one leg if he needs to.
- [46:56]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, the word here though is upside. Like what I would actually Mauricio, I'd actually, I'll take cmc, but I'll just. But like in terms of trust, I don't know that I trust Henry's upside. I, I trust his floor. Yeah, that's the point. Like I trust. I trust Henry's floor vs. CMC staying healthy all year. But if you're asking me to swing for the fences, I have CMC at 3 higher. Right. Because the receiving. And we'll get to this later. But like, yeah, I mean, he's just. He's going to be put in more favorable positions to not take hits on his body.
- [47:26]
Jay
Christian McCaffrey's been a starter in the NFL for basically seven seasons. Three of those, he's been hurt. The other four, he's been a top two running back.
- [47:33]
Matthew Berry
Back.
- [47:33]
Jay
And so that's what you're banking.
- [47:35]
Connor Rogers
Roulette.
- [47:35]
Jay
Yeah, exactly. And so you've got immense upside there. Last thing I'll say on Derek Henry.
- [47:39]
Matthew Berry
Yeah.
- [47:40]
Jay
What we were talking about coming into last season, the one concern about the Ravens was their offensive line, which held up and was better than people anticipated. And Henry had an incredible year. Lamar Jackson had a historic season. The Ravens last year with the healthiest team in football on offense. So if you just bank in some health regression there. Missing some time as an offensive lineman, backups coming in just more so than last year. Just another reason to not expect what happened last season.
- [48:04]
Matthew Berry
Again, I am. I am pro Derek Henry, so I'm sort of against you here. Although I will say, like, I mean, I'm at running back 7. His current ADP is running back 6. He's going like 12. I'm 16 overall, so I'm slightly lower than the market at the moment. So I see some of that. But the other argument for your side here very quickly is that I feel like the Ravens have upgraded their pass catcher. You know what I mean? You think about last year, the emergence of Rashad Basement. Obviously, Zay Flowers is a star. They get DeAndre Hopkins, who's going to have some role on this offense. They still kept Mark Andrews. Isiah likely continues to get run. So just there's a lot of mouths to feed on that offense. And then you just mentioned Keaton Mitchell looks fully healthy as well. He's going to have a role in this offense as well.
- [48:48]
Jay
Yeah, I just. I'd rather have Chase Brown 20 picks lighter than Derrick Henry at price.
- [48:52]
Connor Rogers
All right, guys, I'll close this out with a take that's a little less wild. Jayden Reed is my last bust here, guys. And you know, this isn't. Obviously, this isn't somebody being drafted in the same scope as everybody we've gone over right now. Matthew, for you, he's your wide receiver, 46, a little safer. His ADP is 109. But I just. I wouldn't be drafting Jaden.
- [49:11]
Matthew Berry
You wouldn't draft him inside the top 110. Yeah, you're outraged by this guy.
- [49:15]
Jay
Look at you guys. Really going out on a limb. Joe Mixon, Jaden Reed.
- [49:19]
Matthew Berry
Joe Mitchell's going as a top 20 running back. Screw you.
- [49:21]
Jay
What about Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry? Go fade someone. Fade Josh Allen. Join me.
- [49:26]
Matthew Berry
But you're not fading. You're not. You're not fading Saquon or Derek Henry. You're like. I just like him slightly less.
- [49:31]
Jay
Yeah, exactly.
- [49:32]
Matthew Berry
Yeah.
- [49:33]
Jay
Jaden Rage.
- [49:34]
Matthew Berry
If you want to be full on, you know, if you want to be full on, you know, anti hero, like go on, like just kill them, tell them they're done. This is it.
- [49:41]
Connor Rogers
Let me read the receivers that are being drafted in the bubble of Jade for the desk that likes to laugh and, you know, be funny. Over here, Ricky Pearsall, his own teammate. Matthew golden, who's a first round pick. Cooper Cup, Khalil Shakir. Ameka Abuka. Josh Downs, Michael Pittman. I'm taking all of those names over Jaden Reed and it's not even like a thing I'm thinking about very long.
- [50:03]
Jay
The problem with Jaden Reed is that if they play like 12 personnel, you're two wide receivers on the field. Like he's not out there. Like he's not. He's.
- [50:09]
Connor Rogers
The legit issue is that he doesn't play enough and his volume I don't think will be enough with how many.
- [50:14]
Matthew Berry
Mouths played 63% of the snaps last year. He's not a full time player, which.
- [50:17]
Jay
I don't get because it feels like he's their best wide receiver now to own.
- [50:19]
Connor Rogers
He's unfortunately banged up right now, which.
- [50:22]
Jay
Is another layer to dropped every ball that was thrown to him last year, which is also a problem.
- [50:27]
Matthew Berry
Exaggeration. I feel like he caught a couple catches. He had a couple of catches.
- [50:31]
Jay
He dropped a lot.
- [50:33]
Connor Rogers
All right, thank you to those joining us live on YouTube at our new time. A quick update for tomorrow's show. We'll be releasing a taped episode on this channel at noon and we'll resume our live episodes on Thursday. In the meantime, of course, head to NBCSports.com for all of Matthew's latest articles, including this season's draft day manifesto.
- [50:52]
Matthew Berry
It's up now. Let's go. Rotoworld.com, nBCSports.com, the 2025 Draft Day Manifesto is live now.
- [50:59]
Connor Rogers
Taking our last break when we're back. Last call is next. We're looking at the candidates to lead the league in the most regular season interceptions right after this.
- [51:15]
Matthew Berry
Hey, fidelity.
- [51:17]
Commercial Voice
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- [51:32]
Matthew Berry
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Connor Rogers
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- [51:35]
Matthew Berry
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- [51:38]
Connor Rogers
To a transaction based service fee of $100.
- [51:39]
Matthew Berry
See full list of Fidelity.com commissions Fidelity.
- [51:42]
Connor Rogers
Brokerage Services, LLC Member NYSE SIPC.
- [51:46]
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- [52:49]
Connor Rogers
DraftKings sportsbook is an official sports betting partner of the NFL and all customers could bet the NFL on DraftKings Kings. Now just download the app and use promo code ffhh when you sign up. DraftKings sportsbook. The Crown is time for last call for us at DraftKings. Here is the leaderboard for most interceptions thrown in terms of odds. This is basically like your hater pick right here. Jaden, what do you like?
- [53:19]
Matthew Berry
Oh, Jayden Daniels on this list. What do you know?
- [53:22]
Jay
Well, it's a hater pick but also kind of a job stability pick because you need someone who's going to throw a lot of picks and then also.
- [53:28]
Connor Rogers
Not get benched and throw a lot in general.
- [53:29]
Jay
And so a guy who's not going to get benched this year is Dak Prescott. That's my pick at 15 1. Here are the quarterbacks last year who had a higher turnover worthy play percentage than Dak Prescott by pff. Jameis Winston, who literally went on national television and asked God to deliver him from interceptions.
- [53:47]
Matthew Berry
Pick sixes, then promptly threw another one.
- [53:49]
Jay
Yeah, probably threw another one. He was not delivered. Drew Locke, Tyler Huntley, who's terrible for the Dolphins, Spencer Rattler and then Dak was fifth in terms of turnover. He threw eight picks in like seven and a half games. He's coming off severe hamstring injury, doesn't have the same mobility things. Gonna have to throw a ton because I don't have any running backs and they have a worse offensive line and then the defense doesn't have the. For my money, the best defensive player in football on it in Micah Parsons at the moment. And it's just very thin. So I think he's going to be in a lot of shootouts, going to be throwing a ton. I think he's going to throw a lot of picks.
- [54:21]
Matthew Berry
I like that pick a lot. That's probably the pick. By the way, Cowboys open the season on the road at Philadelphia. Picks right there. Yeah. Right here on NBC. By the way, Football Night in America Thursday, opening up the season. Let's go.
- [54:34]
Connor Rogers
I like the logic of somebody that can't be benched. Right. That's why I'll roll with Drake May. The Patriots have to. I think Drake May is going to be pretty good this year, but I think Drake May, this is just the style of play you get with him. He is a little bit of a gunslinger. He is somebody that is obviously going to start the entire season assuming he's healthy and he's somebody that's going to take his chances and that's who he's been going back to being a prospect. That's who he was a little bit as a rookie through the 10 picks in 12 starts. So I could see Drake May throwing a lot of picks this year and still having a fine season.
- [55:04]
Matthew Berry
Same argument we made for Trevor Lawrence. He's going to throw a ton and you know, he could easily throw a bunch of picks. He's not going to lose his job, but I'll go. I am a little nervous about the job security, but how about Tyler Schuck? They're not going to be good. They are going to have to throw a ton. They have. He really has two pass catchers other than Kamara as a dump off artist. He's got Chris Alavi and Rashid Shahid. We like both guys, but both are potentially injury prone. Chuck played what, 14 years in college? 17.
- [55:34]
Connor Rogers
Legitimately seven though.
- [55:35]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, no, I mean like pretty wild, right? I mean it's unbelievable.
- [55:39]
Connor Rogers
He does like to throw the ball down the field. For better or for worse.
- [55:42]
Jay
He may only need 10 games to lead the league.
- [55:44]
Matthew Berry
These are the kind of guys that.
- [55:44]
Connor Rogers
Need guys that try to Chuck likes to Chuck. Yes. There you go Chuck.
- [55:48]
Matthew Berry
There you go. You don't have to go home, but you can stay here. Please check out my Tonight show clip on YouTube for Jay and Connor. I'm back tomorrow with a non live episode. You'll see it then. Peace out.
- [56:26]
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- [57:27]
Matthew Berry
With leading networking and connectivity, advanced cybersecurity and expert partnership, Comcast business helps turn today's enterprises into engines of modern business. Powering the engine of modern business powering possibilities. Restrictions apply.