Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry

Episode: Breakouts + Busts: Drake London, Marvin Harrison Jr., Saquon Barkley Lead the Way
Date: August 12, 2025
Host: Matthew Berry (NBC Sports) with Connor Rogers and Jay

Episode Overview

This high-energy episode delivers Matthew Berry and the crew’s highly anticipated annual “Breakouts and Busts” draft guide, zeroing in on the players they believe will outperform or underwhelm their average draft position (ADP) in the 2025 fantasy football season. With deep dives into receiver, running back, and tight end candidates for both categories, the hosts serve up bold predictions, grounded analysis, banter, and memorable quotes. If you're prepping for your draft, this episode is tailor-made for you.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Annual Breakouts & Busts Episode

• Purpose: Each August, the team plants their flags, making their most confident calls on fantasy football breakouts (players due to outpace their ADP) and busts (those likely to disappoint).
• Approach: The crew debates the picks, shares insider reasoning, and interacts live with viewers' hot takes.
• Tone: Fun and conversational, with recurring jokes about show traditions and their “Happy Hour” audience.

2. Wide Receiver Breakout Candidates

Drake London (Atlanta Falcons)

• Why London Is Ready to Erupt:
  • QB Upgrade: Now linked to Michael Penix Jr., who excels with deep and frequently targeted throws—matching London's skill set.
  • Slot Usage: 47% of London’s targets came from the slot last year. More manufactured touches expected in 2025.
  • Berry’s Ranking: WR9 (vs consensus ADP as WR15–21), positioning London firmly as a WR1.
  • Stat Highlight: "In the three starts that Michael Penix Jr. made last year, Drake London had a 40% [target] share...two of the three [games] over 100 yards." (Matthew Berry, 06:31)
• Jay’s Cooper Kupp Comparison: Suggests London could assume that “2021 Cooper Kupp” slot-dynamo role in Zac Robinson's offense.
• Banter:
  • “Friend of the podcast, friend of the show, Detective Drake London…” (Matthew Berry, 05:31)
  • “If we're going to do a Randy Moss…Predict 27 touchdowns. Now we're talking.” (Matthew Berry, 09:17)
• Timestamps:
  • [04:47–07:56] Deep analysis and stats on London’s breakout potential

Marvin Harrison Jr. (Arizona Cardinals)

• Why He's Still a Generational Talent:
  • Frustrated managers last year, but underlying usage and talent remain elite.
  • Key Metrics: At least 20% target share in 12 of 16 games, tied for second in end zone targets (18), 3rd in air yards share.
  • Regression to Mean: Expected bounce back in TDs, improved chemistry with QB Kyler Murray.
  • Draft Value: ADP as WR17, hosts believe top-15 is the floor.
  • Quote: “If you believed in the talent of Marvin Harrison Jr. as a super prospect, you should still believe in it. In year two, I will happily draft him as one of the first 15 wide receivers off the board.” (Connor Rogers, 14:30)
• Timestamps:
  • [13:33–17:03] Harrison Jr. analysis, ADP/floor debate

Travis Hunter (Jacksonville Jaguars)

• Undervalued: Despite a high snap share and the team investing heavily in him, concerns about his two-way usage are overstated.
• Target Opportunity: Even with defensive snaps, he leads the team in targets and will be a focal point when on offense.
• Quote: “If he is on the field because his snaps are limited…he will be targeted. So even if he plays 50% of the offensive snaps…he's always going to be one of the first two reads.” (Matthew Berry, 23:12)
• Timestamps:
  • [22:43–25:29] Hunter’s usage, vacated targets, and undervaluation

3. Tight End Breakouts

Tucker Kraft (Green Bay Packers)

• Role Clarity: Amid an unsettled WR group in Green Bay, Kraft stands out due to his blocking (ensuring playing time) and explosive YAC skills (led all TEs last year: 9.1 YAC per catch).
• Jordan Love Connection: Strong rapport with Love, who finished strong in 2023.
• Quote: “He led all tight ends in yards after catch last season…This guy is super explosive. And I think overall I just want to buy shares of Jordan Love…” (Jay, 10:24)
• Timestamps:
  • [10:24–12:16] Kraft’s fantasy outlook and Packers position breakdown

Dalton Kincaid (Buffalo Bills)

• Fully Healthy Now: Insights from Buffalo staff suggest he played through injury in 2024 and is viewed as a prime “sleeper.”
• Target Volume: With minimal competition in the passing game, a real shot at being Josh Allen’s most targeted weapon.
• Quote: “Mark my words. Dalton Kincaid's a sleeper. Next year, he's going to have a monster year, fully healthy.” (Matthew Berry quoting Bills coach, 20:21)
• Timestamps:
  • [20:00–22:43] Kincaid hype, usage, and insider scoop

4. Running Back Breakouts

Chase Brown (Cincinnati Bengals)

• End-of-2024 Surge: 19+ fantasy points in 6 of last 8 games after becoming the starter; 23+ touches/game from Week 9 onward.
• RB Depth Chart: Little credible competition; likened to having Joe Mixon’s role but with more juice.
• Berry’s Rank: RB11, likely still too low.
• Quote: “He showed everything you needed last year to be a true workhorse running back. He's got the role of Joe Mixon with more explosiveness.” (Matthew Berry, 17:06)
• Timestamps:
  • [17:06–19:40] All-in on Chase Brown; RB strategy talk

5. Bust Candidates

James Cook (Buffalo Bills)

• TD-Driven 2024 Performance: 16 rushing TDs last year (only 4 combined in the prior two years); lacks passing down and red zone work.
• Concern: Touchdown regression and RBs off holdouts historically struggle.
• Quote: "He was so skewed by those touchdowns last year. And I just, I don't know that you can count on them, Connor." (Matthew Berry, 30:24)
• Timestamps:
  • [28:48–31:22] Cook’s workload, regression risk, holdout history

Saquon Barkley (Philadelphia Eagles)

• Overuse Worries: Massive workload in 2024 (482 touches); risk of breakdown and regression.
• Situational Change: Philly’s OL and overall run-heavy approach unlikely to repeat at the same scale.
• Quote: “I just don't want to pay for that because there's just the more carries that you get, the more strain you put on your body, the more likely you are to have a weaker year the following year.” (Jay, 31:54)
• Timestamps:
  • [31:54–34:42] Barkley bust risk logic

Breece Hall (New York Jets)

• Committee Fears: May split with Braylon Allen, Isaiah Davis; goal-line TDs could go to Justin Fields.
• Quote: “Would it shock you, Matthew, if Justin Fields runs for more touchdowns than Breece Hall this year? It would not shock me.” (Connor Rogers & Matthew Berry, 36:16)
• Timestamps:
  • [35:42–37:25] Hall’s ceiling at ADP; Jets’ complications

Joe Mixon (Houston Texans)

• Efficiency Collapse: Fewer avoided tackles, poor yards-per-carry, and now an injured, aging back on a worse O-line.
• Role Uncertainty: Possible committee with Nick Chubb, Woody Marks, or a free agent pickup.
• Quote: “Joe Mixon just might be done. We don't know. But look, last year he was bottom 10 in avoided tackle rate…It's insane to me that people are drafting him as a top 20 running back.” (Matthew Berry, 38:44)
• Timestamps:
  • [38:44–43:25] Mixon breakdown, Texans’ RB landscape worries

Derrick Henry (Baltimore Ravens)

• Workload & Age: Even Henry’s legendary durability may not survive regression, plus Keaton Mitchell expected to siphon work.
• Low Passing Game Usage: Needs massive per-carry efficiency to return value; Ravens will have an eye toward the postseason.
• Quote: “I still think he's going to be really good. I just don't think he's going to get the same usage and I don't think he's going to have the same amount of breakaway runs.” (Jay, 44:54)
• Timestamps:
  • [43:25–48:48] Henry, Mitchell, and the uncertain RB hierarchy

Jaden Reed (Green Bay Packers)

• Part-Time Role: Only played 63% of snaps in 2024, WR group is crowded, questionable health.
• Passing on Value: Hosts prefer several WRs in his ADP range.
• Quote: “The legit issue is that he doesn't play enough and his volume I don't think will be enough…” (Connor Rogers, 50:09)
• Timestamps:
  • [48:52–50:32] Reed’s volume and usage problems

6. Memorable Quotes & Humor

• “I'm all in on the talent and again, the opportunity.” (Matthew Berry on Chase Brown, 19:40)
• “Call me in 30 years. See if you look this good.” (Matthew Berry, comic banter, 38:36)
• “Derrick Henry is like, he just, he is the exception that proves the rule.” (Matthew Berry, 45:24)
• “Please check out my Tonight Show clip on YouTube…” (Matthew Berry’s running promotion, throughout)

7. Last Call: Prediction—Who Will Lead the NFL in Interceptions?

([52:49–55:48])

• Dak Prescott: Jay predicts a high volume of throws, thin RB group, turnover-prone history.
• Drake Maye: As a rookie starter, expected to make mistakes but keep the job.
• Tyler Shough: On a bad team, will sling it around, likely leading to picks.

Audience Involvement & Community Jokes

• Ongoing jokes about what to call their fan base (e.g., “Happy Hour Hive,” “Happy Hour Hooligans,” “The Barflies”).
• Frequent shout-outs to live YouTube commenters’ takes, embracing the interactive format.

Notable Timestamps

• Breakout Receivers: 04:47–09:51 (Drake London through naming audience segment)
• Marvin Harrison Jr.: 13:33–17:03
• Travis Hunter Hype: 22:43–25:29
• Chase Brown RB Breakout: 17:06–19:40
• Busts Begin: 28:48
• James Cook Deep Dive: 28:48–31:22
• Saquon Barkley Caution: 31:54–34:42
• Breece Hall Risk: 35:42–37:25
• Joe Mixon Red Flags: 38:44–43:25
• Derrick Henry & Baltimore: 43:25–48:48
• Jayden Reed Objections: 48:52–50:32
• Last Call (Most INTs): 52:49–55:48

Takeaways for Fantasy Drafters

• Chase upside picks with clear volume and talent paths (London, Chase Brown, Kraft, Kincaid).
• Be wary of RBs coming off outlier, touchdown-heavy seasons or in ambiguous/aging situations (Cook, Saquon, Henry, Mixon, Hall).
• Dig into context for big-name WRs (Harrison Jr., Hunter), and don’t blindly fade or follow ADP.
• Lean into breakouts at cost, fade risky profiles at their current prices.

In the Host’s Words

“These are not guys we think are fantasy irrelevant. It’s about draft cost, value, and risk. You can still be a good player and a bust versus what you paid.”
— Connor Rogers (35:22)

If you missed it, this episode is an essential listen—giving you both conviction picks and plenty of fantasy wisdom (with classic Matthew Berry humor) to outmaneuver your league at the draft table.