← Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry
Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry
Championship Sunday Review + Steelers hire Mike McCarthy
00:51:56
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- [00:00]
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- [01:04]
Jay Croucher
Fantasy FOOTBALL HAPPY HOUR with Matthew Berry.
- [01:08]
Matthew Berry
All right, welcome to Fantasy Football Happy Hour. I am Jay Croucher here with Lawrence Jackson Jr. And Matthew Berry. We're going to talk about conference championship weekend review both games. We'll talk about some of the coaching updates as well. We'll have pick up lines at close and of course, we will look ahead to Super Bowl 660 in a couple of weeks. There is, though, one aspect of this, which is that Matthew is playing hurt. Sam Donald needs a couple weeks for his oblique to heal. Matthew Beare will also take those couple of weeks for his voice to heal. How are you feeling, Matthew?
- [01:41]
Jay Croucher
I'm a little under the weather, you know, I feel like it's going around. I have I'm surprised you're not sick, you know, either of you, honestly, because I feel like that's what happens when you have kids, right? They, they go to school, they play, they get sick, they bring it home. So it's, it's kind of gone through my house. I'm glad we are remote today as we change over the studio. The reason we're not in studio in beautiful Stanford, Connecticut at the happy hour set as normal is that they're changing it over for our Olympics coverage on NBC and Peacock and of course, all the NBC channels. So that's exciting. I wonder if, I wonder if, you know, like, Scott Hansen will be there in front of the NFL Blitz video game or, or if they'll truly change it all over anyway, but that's why we're not there. I am not. I'm not doing great. We'll see how long my voice lasts. But of course, you know, couldn't miss the. The last show before we are on the road for the Super Bowl. We're headed to Santa Clara.
- [02:40]
Matthew Berry
Absolutely no Connor Rogers today. He was so elated by the Beau Bichette Mets signing that he called out today. It's the victory tour goes on for Conor and his Mets, but we will get stuck into everything regardless. Just on the sickness point, people sometimes ask me, like, what's the most. What's the most surprising aspect of being a parent? And I always tell them, so I'm sick 35% of the time. Like, I'm just in a constant state of revolving health back to sickness. But anyway, let's get into these conference championship games. We'll start off with the one that was the more compelling of the two, I think, which is Rams, Seahawks, and Lawrence. I think the big story out of this was just that Sam Donald, he exercised the ghost, exercised the demons, and he delivered on the biggest stage possible.
- [03:29]
Lawrence Jackson Jr.
Yeah, Jay. And to be honest, man, we cannot, we can no longer say the things that we used to say about Sam Darnold, regardless of how the super bowl goes. He went in the shootout against Matthew Stafford, actually two times straight in a row when these teams played, going into a shootout with a Matthew Stafford who's probably going to win the mvp. And, and you knew the Rams were going to keep throwing their shots that second half and, you know, they were going to keep coming. Sam Darnold held this Seahawks offense up. He did not turn the ball over and probably played the best game of his career, all things considered. 346 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, no turnovers. Just a great thing for the. The former number three overall pick from the 2018 draft that had Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield. Sam Darnold is the first person from that class to get to a Super Bowl. So big congrats to him. And like you said, exercising those demons.
- [04:36]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, I thought in a way, the most remarkable thing of this game was not that Donald played the way that he did, but because he had to play that way, otherwise they were going to lose. We thought that there might be worlds where, you know, they're landing on Ken Walker in the run game and it's largely the defense that carries it and Sam Donald can kind of, you know, to some extent put on the Trent Del for 2000 Ravens costume and manage this game. That wasn't the case at all. The Rams average 8.3 yards per play. It felt like they were getting a first down on every play, and they almost work because they're averaging 8.3 yards per play. The Seahawks had no answer whatsoever for Stafford for the second game in a row. The pass rush wasn't really getting home. Stafford, I believe Stafford was sacked one time total across the three matchups between the Rams and the Seahawks. So the fact that the Seahawks couldn't get pressure, the fact that the Rams were able to create separation so quickly with Puka Nakur and Devonte Adams going up against the weak links of the Seattle defense, which is their boundary corners, going up against Job and Tariq Woollen, who was almost one of the great villains in Seattle sports history for the worst 60 seconds that any athlete has had in 2026 to date. But the fact that Stafford was able to do all of that and play as well as he did meant that Donald had to respond. And he did. And he did basically everything that you could ever expect of him. Matthew?
- [06:01]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, and I think the other thing that's really interesting here is people forget like, okay, brilliant in this game. There's no question about it. But think about this. The two previous matchups, the Rams just two touchdown passes, six interceptions. He had played poorly in the two games where he had faced this defense before. So for a third time, everything on the line, obviously, and Matthew Stafford absolutely slinging it first for Darnold to play as well as he did is just kind of an awesome story. And I here's my question, Jay. What do you think we hear more of now that the super bowl matchup is set? We've got two weeks. Two weeks with nothing to talk about but this matchup. So my question is, what do you think we hear more of, like the Sam Darnold redemption story, Malcolm Butler or Marshawn Lynch? That's my question for you over the next two weeks.
- [06:48]
Matthew Berry
I think it's Malcolm Butler because one that is the most iconic super bowl play I think of the past couple decades, certainly the one that comes to mind for me first. I think another funny thing is that it was Chris Collinsworth on that call for that play. And I can still remember in my head Collinsworth yelling, I can't believe the call. I can't believe the call. They didn't run the ball with Marshall and Lynch and Now Chris Collinsworth calling his sixth super bowl and is the fifth one involving the Patriots and the second one involving the Patriots and the Seahawks. So as much as Pat's Rams would have been fun as well, because, you know, Pat's Rams started the Patriots dynasty 26 years ago or whatever. And then also we had the second installment, which was not a great game, but now the fact that it is a Pat Seahawks redux, the fact that it's not just Sam Darnold exercising demons and ghosts, it's the Seattle Seahawks exercising demons from what was the most traumatic loss in their franchise history and still just one of the most bizarre sequences ever. Because the game, it looked like the were going to win. And then what it was Jermaine curse down the right sideline with the insane juggling.
- [08:05]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, no one talks about that. That's what's crazy is that had they scored, had they given it to Marshawn lynch, had Russell Wilson run, touchdown, whatever, had the Seahawks one, people would have talked about Jermaine curses catch. The way they talk about why am I blinking the name Giants the Tyree, David Tyree. Thank you. I don't know why I blanked on the name, but like, you know, like one of the all time great catches, Julian Edelman, right, against the Falcons, like one of the all time great super bowl catches. And no one ever brings up the Jermaine curse catch because of what ends up happening, whatever it is, 45 seconds later when instead of running it with Marshawn lynch, you know, Russell Wilson throws the, you know, throws the slant and Malcolm Butler intercepts it. Patriots hold on to win. But in this particular game, and we'll have lots of time to talk about the matchup between the two Patriots and the, and the Seahawks, I want to go back to this game here for a second because do you guys have any concern about the Seahawks defense? To your point? Matthew Stafford lit them up. Now, there's two caveats here. Number one is that you're right, the, the woolen, like, you know, they get, they get the stop and then the bad taunting penalty which keeps that drive alive. So if they don't do that and they get the punt, maybe this game's the final score looks a lot different. And then the second thing here is, is that again, they drove down. We can debate whether or not he should have kicked the field goal, but, you know, they were, they were whatever, you know, five yards away from a touchdown. And on third and fourth down, Stafford just couldn't get it done. But I think any other time he probably does. And then so my concern is, is that the great Seahawks defense at home gives up 27 points, easily could have been 34. I'm just curious, do you guys have any concerns about the Seahawk, this supposedly vaunted Seahawks defense, or is this just McVeigh and Stafford being brilliant?
- [10:00]
Lawrence Jackson Jr.
I think it's more than that because Matthew Stafford has been the only quarterback that's been able to light up this Seahawks defense like that. And you bring up that third and fourth down where the Rams couldn't get in at the five yard line, that's where the. That's where the Seahawks defense show that they could like step up to the test. And again, you bring up Tariq Woolen. He actually dropped the interception on that play, then had the bad penalty, had he caught the interception, then had the penalty, they would have just been 15 yards from the spot of that in. The Seahawks still would have had the ball so they could come up and make plays. I just think it's the Rams offense that's really been humming all year. It's hard to stop an offense when you got a guy like Matthew Stafford Stone 46 regular season touchdowns. I think when you put them in the matchup against the Patriots offense, now we got a whole different thing because the Patriots offense hasn't been humming like they're not like the Rams offense. They kind of win however you could get it, whether it be their own defense turning the ball over. So I think it'll be a very different matchup for the Seahawks going from the Rams offense, which is the best and most explosive in the league, to now going to the Patriots offense.
- [11:21]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, I agree there. I think that the thing too with the Rams that so often doesn't get discussed is that this year they've had arguably the best offensive line in football. The ability to keep Stafford in clean pockets has been so key to everything they do. And I think that for the Seattle defense, everything just compounds where they don't. The Seattle defense, which generates a ton of pressure, they don't have a Micah Parsons or Miles Garrett to just absolutely wreck a great offensive line by themselves. And the Rams, the fact that they've been able to block the Seahawks and Stafford has been so rarely sacked in these three matchups, that has been compounded by the fact that Puka Nakua and Devonte Adams have been able to get these matchups against, you know, suspect outside corners. Devin Witherspoon is incredible, but the rest of the cornerback room is not really a strength of the Seahawks. And so I think the fact that Safford has had time and the receivers have been able to separate quickly, that has been able to, you know, undo this otherwise excellent Seahawks defense. Nick Memorial so is incredible as well when he plays corner, but he's not even really a cornerback as he just plays every position. But I think that when there is a weak link in an offense, McDonald is just going to hammer it like The San Francisco, the 49ers. Their offense when Purdy has been there statistically was pretty comparable to what the Rams did this season. And they scored nine points in eight quarters against the Seahawks defense. And so I think that this Patriots offense is not going to look remotely like the Rams offense. One, their offensive line is much weaker than LA's and we saw the havoc that Will Anderson was able to wreak, that the Broncos defense was able to rake upon the paths. And also their receivers, they, you know, they don't have Puk Nakur and Devonte Adams. They have Keisha on Boudet, they have Stefan Diggs, Mac Hollins. These guys are not going to separate and destroy the Rams secondary of the Seahawks secondary like the Rams did.
- [13:19]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, we'll talk about that, we'll talk about the game coming up here in a little bit. But just to focus on the Rams here for a second, it's a shame because, you know, it's easy to second guess about whether they should have gone for three or kick the field goal or not. Sort of feels like they, they probably should have there. But I also get wanting to be aggressive. It's was sort of a shootout. You kind of hope your, your defense can get a stop there. You feel bad. You know, this has been made a lot of points. But in his two games against Seattle, right, Both this one, the one in the late season, 831 passing yards, six touchdowns, zero interceptions for Matthew Stafford. To your point, against these, against these Seahawks and like Puka was all world right, you know, whatever. Nine for 165 and a touchdown. Devonte Adams, 489, the touchdown. This is a crazy stat that was given to me. Devonte Adams has played in five conference championships in his career. He has never won one. He's over five. Not that it's his fault, but I'm just saying like that's tough, man. That is, that is tough. So I feel for, I feel for devonte Adams, feel for Puka, feel for Matthew Stafford here because the offense did everything possible to win. And the interesting thing about just, you know, boy, oh boy, I mean, like, I don't know I. A lot of people are sitting here saying he should have kicked the field goal. I sort of get it. Your offense has been rolling. You kind of got, you know, you got lucky there towards the end. You know, you haven't really gotten a lot of stops. I don't mind going for it there. Jay.
- [14:50]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, yeah, to me that was, I thought that was a no brainer decision. Like there's what, under five minutes left in the game. The Seattle offense has been rolling. And here's the thing too is even if you want to look at it with the benefit of hindsight, the Rams didn't get into field goal position at the end of the game. So they just would have lost 31, 30 had they kicked the field goal there. So I think that looks. You're averaging 8.3.
- [15:15]
Jay Croucher
But should they have. Jay, think about that for a second. Hang on though. Should they have on the previous touchdown, gone for two, made it in theory, 3128.
- [15:26]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, that to me is the mistake is that you should have gone for two there. And I understand like in the moment it didn't feel, it just felt like these teams were going to stop. We're just going to keep scoring and scoring and scoring. But I think that that was a mistake because they kicked the extra point to get to 3127 in the third quarter. And you're thinking like, oh, there's going to be all this scoring still to come. There was no more scoring for the game and you just can't, you can't count on the fact that you're definitely going to score a touchdown the rest of the way. So I think that was particularly with just how dominant the Rams offense was looking. I think that that was the decision that McVay might have some regrets about. But Lawrence other side of the ball. The other thing I'm going to remember from this game is Jackson Smith in jig was first half where he just turned the game completely on its head. And even though, I mean Pukka Nikur ended up having more yards receiving yards than JSN in the end. But JSN just really capped off a season where he's most likely going to win offensive player of the year.
- [16:22]
Lawrence Jackson Jr.
Yeah, definitely, you know, well deserved that touchdown catch he had where he was damn near wide open, that, that turned out to be a huge play in the game for the Seahawks. But look, 12 targets, 10 receptions, 153 yards and that touchdown I just spoke about. And it all ties hand in hand with Sam Darnold. He plays his best game of the season of his career really. And what do you know, he's throwing it to the best offensive player on that whole field. And that's a lot to say considering you got Puka Nakua on the other side. That's the most reception yards ever by a player age 23 or younger this season including the playoffs. So Jackson, Smith and Jigba and, and looking forward Jay and Matthew, I would actually, you know, I'm a big value guy here. Right. So when we talk about super bowl mvp, that's the guy I'm looking at because we know that Jackson, Smith and Jigba can have this type of game right. Without Sam Darnold having the type of game that he had last night. Like they could fully depend on on Jackson, Smith and Jigba to win that game. And it says something when you know the defense sole focus is to stop you first. See on the Rams you got Devonte Adams. If you're going to strap up Puka Nakua, they don't really have that on the Seahawks. So shout out to Jackson, Smith and Jigba who's who really doing well for the 2023 wide receiver draft class.
- [17:56]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, I think the thing with JSN is that you know, some people, and I agree with you Lawrence on the Super Bowl MVP angle and we're going to talk about that market a little bit later but I think that there has been, you know, a little bit of thought that oh, he's going to get shadowed by Christian Gonzalez. So he's one of the best shadow corners in the league. It's like I don't know, I don't think you can guard Jason. Jason absolutely torched Derek Stingley earlier in the season. I think that one, he's too good and then two he's used in such a variety of creative ways. So much of his, his the deep bomb targets off of play action. The fact that they use him in the backfield as a running back in that alignment which he scored touchdown out of. So I think that Jason, I just think he's just totally unguardable and there's no, I can't really remember a receiver quite like him. Matthew, where he kind of reminds me of Cristiano Ronaldo where he's just like consistently on balance all the time. That is the thing that I think like he's balletic in the way that he moves and I think like the one handed catch which by the way his second highlight one handed catch against the Rams this season down the left sideline because he had one in the first matchup in L. A. But his emergence is obviously one of the defining stories of the season.
- [19:13]
Jay Croucher
I mean, like, I think the. The word they use in the broadcast, which I thought was accurate, was he just glides. It just feels like he just glides. He's just. His movement is so sharp and it's just his route running is so crisp. And, you know, I'm gonna. You know, Jay, I know there's many group. There's many text chains that you have that I'm not a part of that you always like to throw in my face. Well, I'm a part of the Football Night in America text chain. And so. Right. You're not on that one. And, you know, just, you know, all the guys, like, you know, I got Devin McCourty and I got Tony Dungy and Rodney Harris and all the guys on the. On that text chain and Jason Garrett, etc. Etc. And people are just blown away by the route running and the. The precision of Jackson, Smith and Jigba. I don't know. I mean, I think Christian Gonzalez is really good, but, you know, he got burned a couple of times. You know, I mean, like the one big play the Broncos, and we'll get to that game in a second. But the. I believe Gonzalez was on Mims right when the. On the big play. The one big play in the first half. I could be wrong on that, but I feel like he got burned one time when he got burned pretty bad. At least one time in that game, in the Broncos Patriots game. I could be wrong on that, though. I'm. I'm. I'm drugged up on cough syrup and. Oh, you have no idea. I am. I am high as a kite right now on. On, on over the. Over the counter cop medicine. For the love of God.
- [20:42]
Lawrence Jackson Jr.
The Patriots, though, they actually have a nice whole stable of cornerbacks.
- [20:46]
Tostitos Announcer
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- [20:47]
Lawrence Jackson Jr.
Outside of Carl. I'm sorry, you also have Carlton Davis. Then you got Marcus Jones in the slot there. So. They're good, man. I. I can't imagine for all the.
- [20:57]
Jay Croucher
Talk of Drake May. The Patriots are in the super bowl because of their defense. There's no question about that. Yeah.
- [21:02]
Lawrence Jackson Jr.
100. They got young guys that simply just fly around and that's what they've done this whole playoff now. Albeit they haven't went against the best stable of quarterbacks on their way here. But at the end of the day, you did. Like, that's what. Exactly. Which is when you see Jared stood them. That's what you do now. Now you're facing a different animal now in, in this new Sam Darnold, who's ready to go, who can play in these big game situations. So now we hope so. And just like you mentioned Matthew Marvin Mims, that guy for the Seahawks will be Rashid Shahid. That's the guy who be liable to burn any defensive back that the Patriots have to offer.
- [21:45]
Jay Croucher
And I'm being told in my ear, by the way from producer Adam, that I'm correct that yes, it was Gonzalez that got burned by Marvin mims on that 51 yard catch in the first quarter. So I'm just, I don't know. It's really interesting this matchup and we should get to, we should get to Patriots, Brown, Patriots, Broncos at some point here. But the, the two teams are so fascinating, right, Because Jackson, Smith and Jigba is a superstar, there's no question. And he will be a first round draft pick next year in fantasy drafts. And he, in my opinion was the fantasy MVP this year because of both his production and, or, you know, his ADP where people were not sure about Sam Darrell, not sure about this offense, Clint Kubiak, everything like that. It's gonna be really interesting. I, I feel like I don't hear enough Clint Kubiak for head coach talk. And I understand because he's now head to the super bowl, but just doesn't feel like he's getting the buzz that some other offense coordinators have been getting for potential head coaching jobs. Which is weird given the job that Clint Kubiak has done this year. It's been nothing short of phenomenal. Here's my question though, guys. Like, so you've got jsn, but then you've got, you know, Cooper cup, Rashid Shahid, A.J. barner. Like, it's like there's a superstar wide receiver and then there's. And then you've got Stefan Diggs and like it's not a, it's not a Super Bowl. It's not, you know, Pukiniku and Devonte Adams, I guess is. Is my point. Right. I mean, Shahid is a really nice player. Cup obviously has his moments, but it's interesting wide receiver group in this Super Bowl.
- [23:19]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, absolutely. And I think that the thing with JSN is that all year we have thought about like, well, why don't teams just do what Brian Flores did to jsm where it's basically like, all right, you're seeing two, three guys single play and make the other guys beat you. And I think that the nature of this Kubiak offense is that you don't necessarily get to play like that because so many of JSN's targets come off of play action. That's such a big part of how he accumulates, particularly the deep passes. But yeah, no good. Good. Matthew, that you're correct on the Christian Gonzalez burn. That's a big win for cost. Cough syrup. Acid dreams. Very good. That that one was a correct call. Let's move to that game Patriots Broncos, which was not nearly as compelling as ramp Seahawks, but visually compelling on the second half with all of the snow but not a not a great game overall. And one of the reasons why is that Lawrence, the Patriots offense was not really at the races and they didn't have a backup quarterback in they had Drake May, who's going to finish top two in mvp. And for the third game in a row, the Patriots offense the did not look fantastic. Now they've gone up against three of the best defenses in football in the charges, the Texans and the Broncos in this playoff run. But how concerned are you that Drake May and the Pats, they weren't able to get it going, particularly in the first half before the weather really kicked in.
- [24:46]
Lawrence Jackson Jr.
Yeah, I, I would be a little concerned because like you said, Jay, they did play up against three of these three of the best defenses in the NFL. But at the same time, that's three games in a row when you got, you know, when you got a guy, when you got an offense that's led by an MVP candidate, you want to in three games you want to get something going. Not the case here for Drake May 10th for 2186 passing yards. But the key here was the 65 rushing yards and was able to pick up those timely first downs, including the one on the Patriots last drive. That kind that not kind of that did seal the deal. So that's always going to be in play for him and that's going to be in play for Drake May in the Super Bowl. But going to that other side of the of this game, the Broncos and we was just talking about the the Rams going forward for two I 100 felt like the Rams who again are the Rams with Matthew Stafford should have went I'm sorry should have went for on fourth down. Sorry. Not two. They should have went for it on fourth down. That offense was going right on the other side. The Broncos had a chance to go up two scores early. They didn't do it. And in the play call to go for it on fourth round on fourth down to put the ball in Jerry Stum's hands. Now now that one was risky. That one I was scratching my head on, and it kind of bit them later down in the line because that one turnover that Jared Stidham had, that really cost in the game. And there you go again, Patriots defense handling business.
- [26:28]
Matthew Berry
I agree with you, Lawrence, that I think that play call more than anything, right. It was the fact that I'm okay with the decision to go for it there. I understand that, you know, they don't score again after that. And so it looks bad in retrospect, particularly given how the conditions set in. And there is one line of thinking that it's like, well, it's going to be so hard to score in the second half with the conditions that you have to take the points in the first half when you get them. The other line of thinking is, is that we're so close to the end zone. Seven here is going to be so incredibly valuable because of how hard it's going to be to score in the second half. So I think ultimately I would have gone for it there. It's just that I wouldn't have had Jared Stidham roll out to throw a pass in that situation. I think that in that spot, you more rely on having one of the best offensive lines in football and being able to run the ball to get one yard. So ultimately, I don't think that the decision was egregious in either direction. I think both were defensible. It's just that it didn't work out. And it looked particularly bad the way that it didn't work out because, you know, Stidham rolled out and almost threw a pick on the play message.
- [27:35]
Jay Croucher
That's the point. I think the play call is the more egregious part here. I don't mind them going for it. I know a lot of people are saying, you know, hindsight's 20 20. The thing that I think is interesting, I think he might have gotten the third. The first down. On third down, I was very surprised. CBS showed one replay, just very, very quickly, one replay of him running out towards the side, sideline, and, you know, he slid and they marked it short. I personally, I think, would have been nice to get another look at that. I don't know what you guys saw, but looked like he was pretty close to the first down. Honestly, if I'm Sean Payton to that point, given, like, given the. Given the fact that you're with a backup quarterback, you're a home underdog with a backup quarterback, I might have thrown a challenge flag there and said, like, hey, can we review that Taking a time, it's the first half, take a time out, take a look at it or even just take a time out and you know, see if, see if replay assist mails you out or anything like that. I don't know. It was interesting, but it is weird that. Why not run like a, you know, even if you don't do it with Stidham, surely you got somebody there that can do a QB sneak. One of your, you know, Adam Trotman or something like that, one of their, one of their bigger players there. That, that was the biggest issue I think is the, is the fact that, you know, the play call was so bad. One other thing that I will say here, and this is something that was going on in the football Night in America group chat that Jay Croucher is not a part of, is we were debating this back and forth and the argument was that, you know, some coaches are like, you know what, given the new kickoff rules that you'd rather like, if you don't get it, if you go for it on fourth down and you don't get it, you'd rather have the guys pinned there inside the 10 yard line or whatever it is rather than having to kick off. You score three, okay, and you kick off. And now the other team has the vault of 30, 35, something like that. So, you know, but what was interesting is, is that, and I don't, you know, it's a private group chat, so I don't want to get into, but some of the, some of the people on the chat that are former NFL players or coaches just talked about in specific players like, yeah, but you don't understand like what it means to like to the team to get stopped on fourth down. But there's just sort of a deflating nature of that versus hey, man, we drove down, we got points. And I never thought about it that way, which I think is really interesting. That's right. That there's just sort of a momentum suck. And even though you can sit here logically say like, okay, we're fine, but now they've still got to go 90 something yards to get a, you know, to get a touchdown or get a score, but still like, you know, it's, there's something deflating about like man, we were, we were rolling right. And like you felt like, damn, I think the Broncos are going to win this game.
- [30:17]
Lawrence Jackson Jr.
Yeah.
- [30:17]
Jay Croucher
And they still should have.
- [30:18]
Lawrence Jackson Jr.
Honestly, like in another point, I 100% agree with that fact about the, the not getting it on fourth and one is, is, you know, a big deflation for the team. But then your defense is playing well when the weather was better. So like you certainly would have felt better about the defense when the weather got bad. So it's just, you know, it, it's over now. But just seeing the final score 10 to 7 is, is, it's gotta eat at them.
- [30:49]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, they, they easily had a chance to win this game. I think they're gonna. There's a lot of missed opportunities there, a lot of interesting calls that just felt like every single bounce, every single call that could have gone either way all went towards the Patriots here. To your point about the Patriots offense and we can move now from this game to sort of a Super bowl preview. But what's fascinating to me is that like, you know, Drake may has not been great in the playoffs right now. Admittedly he's played a bunch of good defenses, but 15 sacks in three playoff games. Like, you know, he is running for his life, literally. He's been able to use his legs Fantasy wise, right? 65 rushing yards and in this one as well. But throughout the playoffs he's been pressured on almost 40% of his drop backs and now he's got to go face another great defense in the Seattle Seahawks. So getting Drake, man locked Jay. And the other thing that's crazy to me is like, where is Trayvon Henderson? Like Trayvon Anderson has just disappeared. It feels like in this particular game. And I get that it was cold and they want to just kind of, kind of go with a hammer here. But like for Madre Stevenson played 94% of the snaps. And I just feel like we haven't seen Travy Anderson the entire playoffs.
- [32:09]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, I think a big part of the Trayvon aspect is that the Patriots have been nursing these three playoff games. All three of them where they were playing with the lead against the Chargers, they were playing with a lead against the Texans, and Stroud was imploding on the other side. And then once they went up in the Broncos game, they were very much leaning on their defense to win that. And I think the fact that they didn't, they didn't feel like they needed to create explosive plays or to score heavily to win these games. And they felt just more comfortable having the vet in, in Ramondre Stevenson who they trust, which is ironic given his fumbling issues earlier in the season. But I think that it's more likely we see more of Trayvon in the super bowl just given that the Patriots of, you know, four and a half training towards five point underdogs in this game. So they're going to have to score. But to me, Lawrence in the super bowl and the opener on this is Seahawks minus four and a half. The total is 46 and a half. Seahawks minus 230 on the money line. So the market saying that there are 67, 70% chance to win the Super Bowl. To me, the most interesting side of the ball is the Patriots offense because Drake May, who I thought was outstanding with his legs yesterday, scores at the rushing touchdown. He was 10 for 65. He gets the, the third down, pick up, gets the first down on the final play to ice it. But I think as a passer in these playoffs, he has really struggled. And I think that a lot of that is on his offensive line and a lot of it is on the fact that, you know, he doesn't have a Puka Nakura or JSN who can create a ton of separation. But neither of those things are going to change between now and super bowl. And the fact that May, particularly across the first two games, Drake May fumbled six times in the first two playoff games. And, and a lot of, and a lot of that was Will Campbell getting absolutely destroyed by Will Anderson. But still, like, you can't fumble six times in two playoff games. If he fumbles twice against the Seahawks, they're going to lose that game. The Seahawks are too good. So how do you think that May is going to go against the Seahawks defense?
- [34:12]
Lawrence Jackson Jr.
Well, I have to trust himself in the pocket and trust himself when they get the pressure. Because although the Seahawks couldn't actually sack Matthew Stafford, they got close to him. But the thing about Matthew Stafford, this is a veteran quarterback. He's one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He knows the game. Will Drake May, will he be able to consistently trust his eyes and his feet in the pocket and kind of like not just, you know, you got to know when to look to run and know when that pressure's coming at. You know, keep your eyes out. But then again, you keep your eyes downfield. Are your receivers getting open against these DBs? So it's going to be a struggle again. He's going to have some pressure again. They may not be able to sack Drake May like he's been sacked in those previous games. But the Seahawks are going to be coming, so it's going to be all about can you make it where you could go shot for shot with this team. The Seahawks, much like the Los Angeles Rams were able to do that. Now, we, we know Stefon Diggs isn't the old Stefan Diggs, but He's still a thousand yard receiver at this age. And you talked about Tre Veon Henderson. We're, we're going from, you know, we're going from cold, snowy Denver out to Cali now. So Trevion Henderson is going to have to be more of a factor. I don't think they go so much for the battering ram with Ramandre Stevenson. So Henderson being a factor could help Drake May and you just got to see it at this point. This will be four games in a row where the Patriots just don't get it going in the passing game if they can't do it against the Seahawks. So I expect some, I expect better things out of Drake. Man, the offense.
- [36:00]
Matthew Berry
Yep. Any lane Matthew early on Seahawks or Pats at the four and a half I took.
- [36:04]
Jay Croucher
Well, I took the Seahawks minus four and a half as soon as it, as soon as it opened here. I'm just, you know, I'm a believer in the defense of the Seahawks and I, you know, a lot of people are going to talk about the offensive line and rightfully so. I agree with Lawrence that you'll see more Travian Henderson. I think you'll see more Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper. You know, the Sea Seahawks have struggled against tight ends so far this year, so I could see that. It's interesting, right? You think about that Denver game, like if Jared Stidham doesn't make that unbelievably dumb. Was it a forward pass? It's a backward pass, whatever. They recover and then they should score quickly with a Drake May rush. And there was just a, you know, not a great sequence without that, without that turnover. Like they generated three points of offense. Like it was not good. Now, now I agree with Lawrence, like it's gonna be, it's gonna be much better weather here. But I just think that you feel better about the Seahawks defense against the Patriots offense than you do Again, about the, than you do against the Patriots offense against the Seahawks defense, if that makes any sense here. Give me, I'm, I'm nervous about the Patriots here. I will say this about the Super Bowl. I think one and I don't, I think there is a chance that one of these quarterbacks just completely melts down. To your point about Drake May with the six fumbles and being sacked five different times in three straight games. Like, you know, he has not been a great passer and if they stay home and they don't let him get outside the pocket and use his legs, you could see like a, an epic bad performance from Drake.
- [37:38]
Tostitos Announcer
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- [37:39]
Jay Croucher
That said, Drake, may is my vote for MVP this year. And there's a definite chance that Sam Darnold, who, yes, was awesome against the Rams, but in other big games has, you know, has had these meltdown games on big stages and we've talked about this, this Patriots defense is absolutely for real. So I, it's weird. It doesn't feel like to me it's going to be a close game. Like I picked the Seahawks. I wouldn't be surprised if, you know, Sam Darnold also melts down and the Patriots offense gets rolling like nothing would surprise me here. It's been such a weird year.
- [38:20]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, I agree. I think that New England's chances largely hinge on leaning on their defense, which has been excellent, particularly since Milton Williams came back when they are fully healthy for them to, you know, to create the ghosts that Sam Donald once saw in Patriots uniforms on their Monday night game all those years ago. But I think that the way the, the conventional way for this game to unfold is that the Patriots offense really struggles like they really struggled against the charges Broncos and Texans defenses. And the Seahawks defense is now in my mind along with the Texans, the best defensive football. And I think that they may end up defining this game. I think they'll get pressure against the Patriots O line and I don't think that the Patriots wide receivers will be able to get separation the way that Puka and Devonte did last night. And so the bet that jumps off the page to me in terms of, you know, more game and total oriented is the Patriots under 20 and a half points. I don't see them getting to 21 against this Seahawks defense outside in Santa Clara. Quickly before we go to break the Super Bowl MVP market. Sam Dong's the favorite of plus 130. Drake May plus 235. I think I agree with Lawrence. I think the bet is JSN at plus 550. That implies that he's about a 22% chance to win if the Seahawks win. I think it's more than that. He would have won MVP in just about half of Seattle's wins this season. I think that Donald wins MVP last night, but Donald had the best game of his career and JSN had like an above average Sunday for jsn.
- [39:59]
Jay Croucher
But my only question about that is I agree with you. But on the other hand, like, you know, often like I always, I always go back to the fact that you know it. And one of the. I forget which super bowl, but Damian Williams should have been the super bowl mvp and they gave it to Mahomes. Right. I think it was against the Niners. I think it was the right, the first one. And, but, like, they just don't. They generally, I know it has happened, but they generally like to give MVP to the winning quarterback more often than not. They have given it sometimes to defensive players and wide receivers and other, other, other players. But generally that if Jay, if, if Sam, if the Seahawks win, I mean, Sam Darnold played at least decently, right? He didn't melt down and he was able to get the ball to jsn. It's an unbelievable story. Obviously, everyone has talked about, you know, how many teams that Sam Darnold's bounced around, everything like that. And he's, he's finally, you know, this is his second super bowl, but his first one as a starter that he's played. And if the Seahawks win, like, I just sort of feel like it's, while JSN might be, quote, more deserving, feels like it's more likely that Sam Darnold would win the award, which is why he's at plus 130 versus plus 550. But I wonder if you think, as opposed to the, you know, the Seahawks moneyline is minus 230. If you think the Seahawks win this super bowl, aren't you better off betting Sam Darnold at plus 130 than the Seahawks at minus 230?
- [41:25]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, I get all that. The only things I would say is that one JSN ain't Damian Williams. His pedigree is a lot higher. And then who I, I would say the parallel is Cooper cup and the super bowl, where Matthew Stafford was also an incredible story his first year as a Ram after all those years in Detroit. But you're banking on, I think, basically Sam Donald throwing one pick in this game to tarnish your stat line a bit, and JSN going berserk and accounting for, you know, 45, 50 of Donald's yards, as he so often does. Anyway, we've got to take our first break. When we come back, we will break down all the new coaching items.
- [42:07]
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Matthew Berry
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Jay Croucher
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- [43:51]
Matthew Berry
Get a'@usaa.com bundle restrictions apply. All right, we are back with ROTOR World Player News, headlined by some news to warm Matthew Berry's heart. Mike McCarthy is back in all of our lives as head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Matthew Barry, your reaction?
- [44:11]
Jay Croucher
I love this. I'm super excited for it. I I am so here for this. Look, I feel bad for Steelers fans. We have friends that are Steeler fans but this is the universe, you know, saying hey, that fat security guard at Acrisure Stadium should not have been so rude to me. And so you know we're gonna do we're going to give you Mike Tomlin just, you know, disguise Mike McCarthy. He's been, you know, what's the difference between Mike Tomlin, who they were ready to run out of town and Mike McCarthy right in playoffs he's 11 and 11. Mike McCarthy he won one Super bowl that was in 2010. He's somebody that, you know, basically gets you eight, nine, 10 wins a season, sometimes 11 or 12. But you know they will be a they good to above average offense under Mike McCarthy and they will fail in the playoffs. I, I've said this many times and I stand by it. No one, no coach in the history of the NFL has gotten less out of more talent than Mike McCarthy. Whether it was, you know, Aaron Rodgers who might have been the greatest, might be the greatest quarterback to ever live. Like we can talk about, forget the goat stuff, but just from a pure skills standpoint, yeah, Aaron Rodgers might be the greatest quarterback that ever lived, but he had peak Aaron Rodgers and all those years in Green Bay and then he goes to Dallas where he had a loaded team with Dak Prescott and now he goes to a team that at the moment, maybe Aaron Rodgers comes back but doesn't have the talent level that either of his previous two stops were. It's rare that you get a third chance at a head coaching job in the NFL, so shout out Mike McCarthy, fantasy wise, all jokes aside, because I'm not a huge Mike McCarthy guy, but fantasy wise, it'll be fine for the players we care about. DK Metcalf will still get his. We'll see who the quarterback is. Jalen Ward will be fine. Don't know if Kenneth Gainwell gets as much run, but maybe McCarthy has generally been a multi running back guy. He certainly was in, in green bay. Mike McCarthy is the inspiration behind free Aaron Jones. When I started, the whole free Aaron Jones movement was because Mike McCarthy wouldn't play him. So yeah, I'm, I'm thrilled about this just because I think it's funny. But I do feel bad for Steeler fans and I will. The last thing I'll say this is amazing, is that the Steelers on their own official website, I believe this. But the Steelers basically acknowledge that they know fan reaction has been mostly negative. No, like Art Rooney II was basically like, I'm not trying to win the press conference, I'm trying to win games. But acknowledge that, yes, you know, fan reaction overall has been fairly negative. Like no one is excited about this. What's the, what's that TV show? No one wants this. This is the NFL version of that.
- [47:06]
Lawrence Jackson Jr.
Yeah, I mean it like you say, man, it serves, I guess some of the Pittsburgh fans right. For those who want it, Mike Tomlin out of there so quickly. When you look at, you know, the statistics, the wins in regular season, playoff wins, all of those numbers are similar with Mike Tomlin as they are with Mike McCarthy. This is the thing. Mike Thomas a different guy. These are two different guys. Now can Mike McCarthy, can he lead a locker room? You know, fully? These guys like can he get a team, what, Mason Rudolph to the playoffs. Can he get, you know, teams like that where you're not sure what the quarterback is. Can you get that winning record with these teams? That'll be the question. And if you're the Steelers, I would have felt like, you know, if you were interested in guys like Clint Kubiak, Chris Schuler, defensive coordinator for the Rams, if you were interested in those guys, I feel like if you're the Steelers, you could have possibly waited on them and still got in a guy like Mike McCarthy. So that's my, that's my whole thing here. But good luck to the Steelers. Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow are still in that division.
- [48:20]
Matthew Berry
Well, speaking of Lamar Jackson and Lawrence, I'll stay with you. Given I see you as a Ravens fan, even though you're allegedly a Falcons fantasy or allegiance, more so lamar Jackson Co a more exciting hire, Jesse Minter, defensive coordinator for the Chargers, who I think got a lot out of, arguably less in terms of defensive talents. And what do you think, Lawrence, of pairing a defensive coach with Lamar Jackson?
- [48:44]
Lawrence Jackson Jr.
Yeah, you know, I don't have a problem with it. I see I'm seeing like a lot of people that are, it's right. Like what part of the Ravens where, where did they struggle down the stretch? Where did they struggle in the beginning of the season? They had a, they had a nice little five game stretch in the middle of the season where the defense kicked it up a little bit. But seeing Aaron Rodgers just light up that Ravens defense in Week 18, only to see Aaron Rodgers fold up next week against the Texans was probably enough to, for them to say, hey, let's bring us in a defensive guy. Because the Ravens, speaking of talent, they have that obviously you got Kyle Hamilton at the safety, you got the defensive tackle that was hurt for the season. So you were missing some guys here, but you still had Roquan Smith. Look, you get a good offensive coordinator and Lamar is going to do what Lamar is going to do. He's proven that throughout his career. He won an MVP with his top receiver being Willie Sneeze. So get the defense right and you should be able to figure it out with Derrick Henry in Lamar Jackson there. So, you know, I'm not, I wasn't so like, oh, he got to have an offensive guy like you got an offensive guy, it's Lamar. And if you brought in Jesse mentor the own, the Ravens owner Steve Bashati said, hey, we want to know what Lamar thinks. So I would guess that Lamar is like at least somewhat cool with this if they made this higher. And Jesse Minner, he's been on the Ravens recently, too.
- [50:20]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, it's going to depend on the offensive coordinator here. But yeah, I mean, you know, shout out like Willie Sneed just catching strays.
- [50:31]
Lawrence Jackson Jr.
Too.
- [50:32]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, exactly. Exactly one. I will say this, though. As long as we're talking sort of Ravens, I do think they needed sort of a change of pace. Somebody different in the locker room, obviously. But for all the hailing of John Harbaugh, we talked about this when Harbaugh got hired. Like, what's the difference between John Harbaugh and Mike McCarthy? John Harbaugh gets $100 million deal with the Giants. Mike McCarthy widely panned and I'm one of them for taking the job with the Steelers. And yet look at the records. Those guys are basically the same as well. Like, there's not a big difference between John Harbaugh and Mike McCarthy. That's not an endorsement of McCarthy, by the way. But so I do think Jesse Minter going to like for our purposes, it all depends on the coordinator. But Lamar's gonna be able to produce points. Whoever is the guy, whoever is coaching this and I do think that mentor, if he brings some discipline to this entire organization, I think that'll help because that, I think that was the. That's what it sounds like from people I've talked to that Lamar needs, he needs somebody that can hold him a little bit more accountable.
- [51:31]
Matthew Berry
When we come back, pick up lines, our favorite bets for the Super Bowl.
- [51:37]
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Jay Croucher
Power.
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Jay Croucher
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Matthew Berry
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Matthew Berry
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- [53:22]
Jay Croucher
Oh, the crown is yours.
- [53:23]
Matthew Berry
Yours crown is absolutely yours. All right, pick up Lawrence. What do you got for us?
- [53:28]
Lawrence Jackson Jr.
Look, Matthew Travion Henderson, we talked about him earlier having more opportunities in the Super Bowl. 20 rushing yards. That's it. That's that plus 108 there, right? We know he didn't get it in Denver, but we talked about this last week. We knew it was going to be a Ramon Dre Stevenson game. Then we saw the weather. Definitely Ramandre Stevenson game. But in four previous games before that he's easily hit this number and in two of those games he just outright destroyed it. So 20 rushing yards in pretty old Santa Clara, California at +108 for Travion Henderson.
- [54:05]
Matthew Berry
Okay, very good Lawrence. A lot of big names in the Super Bowl. Jackson Smith in Jigba, Sam, Donald Drake May, Stefan Diggs. So let's talk about big Mack daddy Mac Hollins who has quietly emerged. It's a very important part of this offense. Matthew. So my bet is Matt Collins over 28 and a half receiving yards.
- [54:24]
Lawrence Jackson Jr.
Why?
- [54:24]
Matthew Berry
Well, he's gone over in six of the past seven and he hasn't just gone over, he's obliterated this number. He's averaging 55 receiving yards over those seven games. The line is 28 and a half. A lot of those games as we say these three playoff games the Patriots haven't really needed to throw and so and he missed the first two but they didn't need to do much against the Broncos and he still goes for 51 receiving yards. Think that May will have to throw in a game where he is approaching a five point underdog and coming off IR Mac Collins yesterday only Keisha Booty played more snaps than Hollands at wide receiver and that was 40 to Holland's just 39. So I think that Mac Hollands goes over 28 and a half receipt teaming yards in the Super Bowl.
- [55:07]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, I agree with you. Matt Collins is one of my, weirdly, one of my favorite players in the NFL. We've talked about him a decent amount over the years on the show. Like one of my favorite interviews I've ever done. Just, you know, he's an interesting guy, but an awesome guy. And more importantly, to your point, Jay, he absolutely has become a big part of this offense as well. To your point, 51 receiving yards in a game in which they really couldn't move the ball. 28 and a half seems really low. I know Lawrence loves his plus money bets and I actually kind of like that bet. That does feel low for Travian Henderson. He could get that in one run. But Jay, it is the Super Bowl. It is me and you in Santa Clara one magical night. I am going home with you. So Lawrence, as always, keep your phone on. I might, I might see few up, you know when Jay and I are done. But Jay, you picked me up successfully. Congratulations. So let's go with Matt Collins over 28 and a half receiving yards in Super Bowl. We are at Santa Clara, so we're off rest of the week. But then we are live from Radio Row all next week with a ton of great interviews for Jay and Lawrence. I'm Matthew. We will see you later. Peace out.
- [56:15]
Matthew Berry
Hey there, it's Katie Nolan, host of Casuals, the sports podcast where we don't care how much you know about sports. We're just happy that you're here. Every week I hang out with some of my good friends to discuss the biggest stories across sports and entertainment. But in a way that's like fun and not boring. Want to know Sue Bird's favorite Diana Taurasi story? Or how heavy the Larry o' Brien trophy is? Or even what baseball team is right for you based on your moon sign we got you. Listen to Casuals every Tuesday and Thursday.
- [56:41]
Jay Croucher
On the Sirius XM app or wherever.
- [56:43]
Matthew Berry
You get your podcasts.
- [56:44]
Jay Croucher
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