Divisional Round Preview + Giants reportedly land John Harbaugh

Summary

Fantasy Football Happy Hour w/ Matthew Berry

"Divisional Round Preview + Giants Reportedly Land John Harbaugh"

Date: January 15, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into two central threads: the seismic NFL coaching news of John Harbaugh reportedly accepting the New York Giants head coach position, and a detailed fantasy and betting preview of every Divisional Round playoff matchup. Alongside, Matthew Berry and his panel maintain a spirited, witty banter, dish out actionable advice for DFS and season-long players, and engage with listener questions on Superflex leagues, offseason roster strategy, and specific player prop bets.

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Main Topics & Insights

1. Coaching Carousel: John Harbaugh to the Giants ([07:21]–[13:45])

• Giants Hiring John Harbaugh:
  News broke that John Harbaugh, long-tenured Ravens coach, is set to take over the New York Giants’ head job, sparking debate on whether this is a reason for hope or skepticism among Giants fans.
• Panel Breakdown:
  • Berry: Focuses on Harbaugh’s CEO-like qualities, the importance of stable front office support (Baltimore’s Ozzie Newsom/Eric DaCosta vs. NYG’s Joe Schoen), and questions the realistic upside of such a hire, given Giants’ recent front office woes ([08:05], [10:18], [12:03]).
  • Jay: Plays devil’s advocate on Harbaugh’s legacy:

    "If John's brother didn’t run a million fade routes to Michael Crabtree in the Super Bowl... do we think John Harbaugh’s a good coach? What’s the evidence in the past 12 years that he is?" ([08:55])

    • Raises questions on whether Harbaugh is more floor than ceiling, and notes the risk in replicating Baltimore’s talent pipeline in New York.
  • Host/Field Reporter: Highlights the immediate stability Harbaugh brings, points to his history of hiring quality staffs (Todd Monken, Mike Macdonald), but shares concern about GM-coach synergy.
• Notable Quote:

  "What's the difference between Mike McCarthy and John Harbaugh? They each have one Super Bowl. They each have underachievement in playoffs."
  — Matthew Berry ([12:03])

• Fantasy Impact:
  • Discussion on offensive scheme, possible Todd Monken reunion as OC, and early thoughts on new QB Jackson Dart as a mid-round pick, depending on further staff hires ([13:47]).

2. NFL Coaching Cycle & Mike Tomlin Steps Down ([15:05]–[19:56])

• Mike Tomlin Steps Down:
  Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin announces retirement. The show jokes about recruiting Tomlin as a broadcaster and debates who are truly "needle-moving" coaches in the NFL.
• Panel Perspective:
  • Appreciation for Tomlin’s ability to outperform his talent (e.g., “gutting it out with Mason Rudolph”), contrasts with Harbaugh’s history of underachievement.
  • Discussion on Brian Flores as a top candidate still hindered by his active lawsuit.
• Notable Quote:

  "If you have just, quote, a CEO coach type—you want Harbaugh, you want Tomlin? I kind of think I want Tomlin. Over the years, Tomlin more often overperformed relative to talent. Harbaugh underperformed."
  — Matthew Berry ([18:44])

3. Divisional Round Fantasy & Betting Preview ([20:28]–[43:54])

Rams at Bears ([20:28], [40:41])

• DFS & Props: High projected total (48.5), but frigid, snowy weather.
• Matthew Berry:
  • Likes Bears +3.5 and the under, notes Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua as top plays despite the weather ([42:07]).
  • Notes Rams offense has looked shaky, but Bears defense is not a major obstacle.
  • “The argument for Stafford: 323 yards and four touchdowns for Jordan Love last week against these same Bears. We like Stafford and Nacua’s matchup.” ([42:07])
• Panel: Cautions that snow may temper the outcome, but expects points.

Broncos at Bills ([20:28])

• DFS:
  • RJ Harvey (Broncos RB) highlighted as a strong contrarian play; Bills' run defense remains susceptible ([21:40]).
  • Shakir (Bills WR) and James Cook (Bills RB) identified as volume-heavy value picks ([25:19]).
• Game Script Insight:
  • Discussion on the unlikely but real possibility of the Broncos riding momentum to a Super Bowl ([22:19]):

    "We need to accept the possibility the Denver Broncos might be going to the Super Bowl. It’s so strange... but they could be two games away as favorites in both." — Jay ([22:19])

• Gambling Note:
  • Panel bets the under, expects a slog if weather curtails passing.

Seahawks at 49ers ([29:37], [34:06], [54:26])

• Fantasy Focus:
  • Jackson Smith-Njigba vs. Christian McCaffrey debate. Both high-upside, but Berry leans JSN due to Seahawks’ historic ability to scheme him open against the Niners ([30:25]).
  • Key Prop: Kenneth Walker III over 59.5 rushing yards:

    "If [the Seahawks] get up in this game as expected, they’re going to run the ball. Ken Walker will get his carries and get at least 60 rushing yards." — Jay ([54:26])

  • Panel likes JSN: “He did whatever he wanted against the Niners... JSN should feast.” — Jay ([31:16])
• Props & Betting:
  • Christian McCaffrey’s rushing line set low (53.5), with skepticism on his ceiling vs. Seattle D.

Texans at Patriots ([36:33])

• Overview: Low fantasy expectations; ugly betting board.
• DFS Dart Throws: Christian Kirk gets a mention as a slot weapon for Houston if Nico Collins is ruled out. Dalton Schultz may be a sneaky TE fill-in with guaranteed target volume ([38:56]).
• Drake May: The panel is excited to watch him try to break down the Texans' swarming defense, with some confidence May can still make plays off script ([39:49]).
• Quote:

  “He’ll take chances through the air, but he holds the ball.” — Field Reporter ([38:51])

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Q&A: Listener Offseason & Superflex Questions ([46:36]):

• Cam Ward as Superflex QB2: Berry and crew agree he flashed down the stretch and is “right on the border” as a Superflex QB2, but needs help and a supportive coaching staff ([47:00]).
• Tyreek Hill return to Chiefs:
  Berry: Health is key; at age 32 and after a major knee injury, sees Hill as “WR25–35 range, low-end WR3/high-end WR4...not drafting as before.” ([49:03])
• Tyler Shough (Saints):
  • Jay: “Absolutely a number two quarterback [in Superflex]...There’s a chance he ends up a top-10 fantasy QB due to his running and supporting cast.” ([51:12])
  • Berry: But, in a 10-team 1QB league, “I’m not going to waste a roster spot on a second QB. There are so many on waivers.” ([51:04])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On John Harbaugh’s Coaching Ceilings:

  "With Harbaugh, you’re getting floor with perhaps a lack of highest ceiling."
  — Jay ([13:02])

• On CEO Coaches:

  “If you have just, quote, CEO coach type...I kind of think I want Tomlin. He’s out there gutting it out with freaking Mason Rudolph.”
  — Matthew Berry ([18:44])

• DFS Wisdom:

  "If you can get Jackson Dart as QB5, 6 or 7 somewhere...I haven’t really dialed in on my positional ranks...but QB is so deep."
  — Matthew Berry ([13:50])

• On Fantasy Running Backs:

  "Absolutely not. Scat being drafted as high as King Henry next year? Sacrilege to the King."
  — Jay ([14:46])

• On Weather and Betting:

  "You’ll get me in a scarf and a beanie. I don’t look good in a beanie. But I’m not toughing it out."
  — Matthew Berry ([20:43])

• Pop Culture Tangent:
  The panel debates the merits of M. Night Shyamalan movies, with Berry declaring:

  "He has one good movie and that’s Sixth Sense." ([29:10])

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Key Timestamps (MM:SS)

• 07:21: Giants hire John Harbaugh — initial reactions, coaching philosophy.
• 08:55: Jay questions Harbaugh’s recent track record.
• 10:18: Berry on the value of Baltimore’s front office, potential talent gap with Giants.
• 13:47: Fantasy implication: Jackson Dart draft range.
• 15:33: Mike Tomlin steps down, coaching cycle ripple effects.
• 18:44: Berry chooses Tomlin over Harbaugh; deeper coach value debate.
• 20:28: Divisional Round previews begin.
• 21:40: RJ Harvey as a DFS dark horse.
• 22:19: Jay on “accepting” the Broncos might go to the Super Bowl.
• 30:25: JSN vs. CMC for DFS; Berry and Jay’s take.
• 34:06: Props for 49ers-Seahawks; emphasis on Kenneth Walker.
• 40:41: Rams-Bears preview, Stafford/Nacua hype.
• 46:36: Listener Q&A; Cam Ward, Tyreek Hill, Tyler Shough.
• 54:26: “Pick up lines” betting segment; Kenneth Walker over 59.5 rushing yards.

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Tone & Style

The episode balances sharp fantasy/betting analysis with warm, freewheeling banter and classic Berry humor. There are recurring in-jokes about costume mascots, self-deprecation about “bad movie” screenwriting, and plenty of friendly digs among the panel (e.g., “You’re the Charlie Kohler of screenwriting”).

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Final Takeaways

• John Harbaugh to the Giants: Likely brings stability but not a guaranteed leap forward; fantasy impact contingent on OC/QB development.
• Divisional Round Preview: Expect tough, potentially low-scoring, defense-tilted playoff games (especially with cold/snow in NFC matchups); some contrarian RB/WR picks highlighted for DFS.
• DFS & Gambling Strategy: Target volume over flash; pay attention to team injury reports, especially at WR and RB.
• Superflex/Offseason: Cam Ward and Tyler Shough both carry upside as QB2s in deep leagues, but don’t overdraft in single-QB formats.

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For those who missed the episode:
This is a fast-paced, analysis-rich episode interspaced with humor and pop-culture tangents. Panelists are insightful about both the realities of NFL front office decision-making and their implications for fantasy football, making it a must-listen for diehard fantasy and NFL fans heading into the Divisional Round.

Transcript

[Narrator/Announcer]

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[Commercial Voice]

Sign up.

[Commercial Announcer]

Subject to change.

[Matthew Berry]

Oh, look here. With a strut. Yeah, hand it to somebody.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Peacocky.

[Matthew Berry]

All right.

[Jay]

There we go.

[Matthew Berry]

To Connor Rogers.

[Jay]

Turn around.

[Matthew Berry]

It's a TV show. Peacocky. Look at the camera. There we go.

[Field Reporter/Host]

There's your moon walking.

[Matthew Berry]

Oh, careful, Peacocky.

[Jay]

Oh, my goodness.

[Field Reporter/Host]

We know we can't.

[Matthew Berry]

We don't need a HR violation.

[Field Reporter/Host]

That's a good surprise.

[Matthew Berry]

Oh, my God. League of Champion right here. I'm about to fifth child, which some people might think. How do you have time to play fantasy? It's the opposite. Like, oh, man, I need something to focus on other than my kids. You're the Phillips Rivers of NBC Rotopat. Very fertile. That's what we've learned today. He's potent. Yeah, exactly. Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Barry.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Happy Hour. Sorry, no Rotopat in the Peacocky costume today. But what a.

[Matthew Berry]

We got it. Hour to go. You never know.

[Field Reporter/Host]

That's right. We were actually very surprised.

[Jay]

Yeah. After that showing, Rotopad is now one of the four most famous St. Louis Cardinals fans of all time. Joining Jayson Tatum, Billy Bob Thornton and Nelly. And Rotter Pat's number four. So well done for cracking the top four.

[Matthew Berry]

I mean, I would love to argue with you, but I can't.

[Field Reporter/Host]

No, I cannot. I agree.

[Jay]

No other contender is John Goodman.

[Matthew Berry]

I do think John Goodman is probably more famous than Roto Pat.

[Jay]

What about Matthew Tkachuk?

[Matthew Berry]

Maybe. I would think so, too.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Not the worst response.

[Matthew Berry]

Like, people know that. Even I. I'm not a big hockey guy, but Even I know that.

[Jay]

Hey, that.

[Matthew Berry]

That was a hockey player. Very good. No. Yeah. Like, you know, I grew up in Texas. I'm not a. You know, shouldn't have.

[Jay]

I still.

[Matthew Berry]

We don't.

[Field Reporter/Host]

I mean, gal Stars don't exist.

[Matthew Berry]

They'd move there much longer. That is true. You know, but. But I'm. I'm at least sports cognizant enough to know that they used to be in Minnesota.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Right?

[Matthew Berry]

The stars used to be the.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Minnesota became the Wild. And on and on we go.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Jay]

Yeah.

[Field Reporter/Host]

And the stars. And the stars are big in the state of Texas. Yes, they are following talent.

[Matthew Berry]

People love the stars. But again, I had moved out. That was way after I.

[Field Reporter/Host]

You missed a good era.

[Matthew Berry]

I really. I really did as well. Bring back the Whalers. That's all we want. Bring back the Whalers. That's what we need to do. This show needs to become successful enough that we can then sell it by the Whalers. And we.

[Field Reporter/Host]

We make an expansion in the NHL and Venice Football Happy hour owns the Whalers.

[Matthew Berry]

We don't have to. We could just buy one of the crappy teams. Like, come on, like, you tell me we couldn't afford the Columbus Blue Jackets. We're onto something.

[Field Reporter/Host]

You're onto something right now.

[Jay]

Be honest.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Vet says next year in the Peacocky costume. Beyonce.

[Matthew Berry]

Absolutely.

[Field Reporter/Host]

That's a couple steps.

[Matthew Berry]

We had her booked in and then just a scheduling conflict. Unfortunately, we had to make a quick pivot.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Our pivot is Rotopat from Beyonce.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, exactly. Right.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Incredible.

[Jay]

We can get Flacco. We could get Flacco.

[Matthew Berry]

Probably good.

[Field Reporter/Host]

I don't know.

[Matthew Berry]

Flacco or Todd.

[Jay]

Very likely. But it's not impossible.

[Matthew Berry]

Todd Zeal will do it.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Todd Zeal. There's a chance.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Field Reporter/Host]

I mean, Tod has done content for our show before and really good content.

[Matthew Berry]

Really good content. That didn't cost us a lot. He was a bargain on. Oh, yeah.

[Field Reporter/Host]

I wouldn't know.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, we talked about this. What I want. And maybe there's some volunteers out there. What I was saying before you showed up on the show here, Connor, Jay and I got here early. We were talking, but thanks for making it. What I was going to say is.

[Field Reporter/Host]

I'm not on the fancy commercials, so I just stroll in once all those are done.

[Matthew Berry]

No, the joke here is that Connor is almost always the first one here. And I'm like, you know, right. Hey, we're counting down and it's your day. Putting in my thing. But we're just saying, like, we should have Peacocky as the Bartender. Permanently.

[Field Reporter/Host]

I'd like. And maybe excellent bartender.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. And then just maybe different people are in the suit and they reveal themselves.

[Field Reporter/Host]

At the end each time or it's a not sport with DraftKings.

[Matthew Berry]

What?

[Field Reporter/Host]

It's a sold segment.

[Matthew Berry]

Yes. Yes. The only issue is we need a crown for Pikaki. The crown is yours.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Pikaki.

[Jay]

The only thing is that from everyone who's been in that costume, it does seem like a mild form of human torture with the level of how can.

[Field Reporter/Host]

You wash a mascot costume?

[Jay]

Yeah, that's the other thing.

[Field Reporter/Host]

It's one of the dry cleaners.

[Jay]

No, it doesn't.

[Matthew Berry]

You know who would. You know. You know who would be Peacocky? You know who would do it in.

[Field Reporter/Host]

The first, like, Big Show.

[Matthew Berry]

Big show loves the camera. Big show would do.

[Field Reporter/Host]

But he wouldn't wear.

[Matthew Berry]

He might just wear the helmet.

[Jay]

He would turn the costume into a human pond. It was sweat.

[Matthew Berry]

Big show would wear good.

[Jay]

He would drive.

[Matthew Berry]

Big show would have the Peacocky head pouring out and then like a. And then like a Patriots jersey that say he doesn't. He's not putting on the polar Williams.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Joe's gonna pick sec man says Connor has to drive himself to the set, unlike the limo boys.

[Jay]

Oh, wow.

[Matthew Berry]

That's good. That's good.

[Field Reporter/Host]

That's really good. See, you love it. You're ashamed of it.

[Jay]

I drive in a Subaru Forester, thank you very much.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Speaking of the regulars, Aloha Bricks, who was the first fantasy football happy hour regular of the year? I've heard Aloha Bricks has a victory speech that is has to be read on the show because obviously Aloha Bricks, regular of the year, said, aloha and mahalo to every single person for this award. This Peacocky is everybody's. We all love this show, and every single person that watches, produces, or hosts this show makes it special. Cheers. Cheers. That's why you're.

[Matthew Berry]

Cheers. That's right.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Selfless speech.

[Matthew Berry]

Very selfless.

[Jay]

News to break. Jonathan Medici. He sent in advance because he wasn't able to watch the show yesterday because he was teaching a lesson on screenplay writing, which you could learn from Matthew, judging on your signing Nemo script he sent us. I didn't have time to read the whole thing. It was very long. But he sent us an advance acceptance speech for a Peacocky that he never.

[Matthew Berry]

Won, which I mind, really.

[Jay]

And we will run that as well.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Save it for next year.

[Jay]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

No. Hey, Medici, because I know you're watching here.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Welcome to the Club Medici of Riders.

[Matthew Berry]

I want Medici. I want you to on video. I want you to give that acceptance speech and we will run it on this show next time we're back here. I mean, you know, keep it short. Let's not get crazy. But yeah, we'll do that. Like I would like that. I like the fact that he wrote one thinking he was winning. Anyway, congratulations to Aloha Bricks Medici also crushing all of our regulars. It was the hardest vote of all, I feel like. Oh, of all of our awards.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Yeah. There are a lot of dedicated viewers of this show. Listen, we have a lot of NFL stuff to go through today. The divisional round preview. We're doing what's on tap. Jay and I have pickup lines. Matthew will pick Jay. You know the deal by now.

[Jay]

I got a good one.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Before we do any of that, Giants fans, if you are out there, you are watching. Welcome to the fantasy football happy hour bar. You drink for free today because you've been hurting, you've been down. And this morning you woke up with news that John Harbaugh is the newest head coach of your organization.

[Matthew Berry]

The official Giants fan of fantasy football happy hour backup producer Pete, very excited. On the way to Baltimore right now to pick up to help coach Harbaugh move as well, there's a tweet, Art.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Stapleton, he's been covering the Giants for a while. Art's a great guy. I'm told John Harbaugh has accepted the job as the head coach of the New York Giants per source agreement reach deal done. All that's left is pen to paper and an official announcement.

[Matthew Berry]

So I think you listen for a organization that has had a tremendous amount of turmoil over the last handful of years, John Harbr is a, you know, is a big bold faced name that brings stability in theory to the, to the team. I would suspect that, you know, some of the contract demands that have leaked out about Harbaugh, I don't know if they're true or not, but certainly John Harbaugh, who had a number of options for him, wouldn't have come to the Giants unless he had, unless he got obviously the salary he wanted but also the protections, the budget for a coaching staff that he wanted, assurances from the front office, from management and you know, that he could have a significant say. This would be my guess here. All that said Jay, your thoughts because I don't know that every Giants fan should be drinking in joy. I think some might be want to be drinking in tears.

[Jay]

Yeah, you can drink in sadness if you wish his. So here's my question. If John's Brother didn't run a million fade routes to Michael Crabtree in New Orleans in the super bowl. And they just ran QB power with Kaepernick into the end zone. Do we think John Harpel's a good coach? Like, what is the evidence in the past 12 years that John harbor is a really good coach?

[Field Reporter/Host]

It's a dangerous game to play and I understand the people that are like, well, technically they underachieved with Lamar Jackson. I think for the Giants right now they need stability. They haven't had it for a long time. He guarantees you that. We know he can hire a staff. It sounds like Todd Monken could be the offensive coordinator of this offense, which I think is a really nice fit for Jackson, Dart and Malik Neighbors. And you think of Dart's mobility and you know, can you get the vertical pass game going with Monkin? I would like that. There's been turnover on his defensive staff, but he also has hired some really smart defensive coaches, Mike McDonald that have now gone on to be one of the best head coaches in the NFL this year. So I think he does know how to hire a staff. The biggest question to me is I think John Harbaugh is a really good coach in this league. Is the dynamic going from Ozzie Newsom and Eric DaCosta that are some of the best roster builders in the NFL to Joe Shane who has had legitimate shortcomings building the roster. And maybe this isn't. This is an incomplete conversation that down the road John Harbaugh is going to get his own GM in there. That's more my concern than the actual coaching, which I think has significantly raised the floor of the New York Giants.

[Matthew Berry]

To me, that's the, that's the thing. So we talked about this a little bit on the pre show call, which I finally attended. And we talked about this. Yeah. And I, and I just said that I, I'm going to save my take for, for the show. And my take is very similar to yours, which is that. I don't know. I think. I'm sure John Harbaugh is a. Is a fine, good coach. He's very good at being the CEO of a football team. Right. There's somebody. J to your point, like he's a special teams guy. Like he's not somebody that calls plays on either side of the ball.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Right, Right.

[Matthew Berry]

But he is somebody that can sort of run an organization, which is kind of what a head coach does in a lot of cases. But I don't think people appreciate how much John Harbaugh or any coach would have benefit from. Yes. Ozzie Newsom. And they've done a great job. And Eric Costa, like, they've, they've done a great job. Baltimore, in terms of drafting, of finding talent, of, I mean, Derek Henry was a bargain. You know, I mean, just in terms of both free agency, that defense they've rebuilt year after year and having an incredibly stable ownership. Right. I mean, like, he was given 18 years in Baltimore and it sounded like, you know, he'd worn out his welcome maybe a little bit there. But like the New York media and the New York ownership, I think is going to be much less patient and so. Right. With. Without the same talent and while the same talent evaluators going into this year's draft where they have a high draft pick, what does this look like? And so that's, I think that's the concern on the knock on Harbaugh. My question this week, like, and you guys know, like, I am not a. I'm like, I think Mike McCarthy, no coach has done less with more talent than Mike McCarthy over the years. You know, from peak Aaron Rodgers to Dak and everything like that. But, like, what's the difference between Mike McCarthy and John Harbaugh?

[Jay]

Right?

[Matthew Berry]

They each have one super bowl win. They each have good teams. You know, Harbaugh, McCarthy won 12 wins, you know, for three years in a row in Dallas.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Playoff underachievement.

[Matthew Berry]

Playoff underachievement.

[Field Reporter/Host]

I think Harbaugh's hired the better. He's got better press over the years.

[Jay]

I just think it's so difficult to evaluate these CEO type of coaches because they don't have their own side of the ball. Like, how good of a coach is Dan Campbell? Like, yeah, he hired. Well, he hired one great offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson, the defensive coordinator stuff doesn't look quite as good at this point, but it's just very hard to make value judgment. My thought, just macro wise, is that there's a handful of guys who really move the needle in a positive way. There's a handful of guys who move the needle in a negative way, and then most coaches just fall into the middle. And if I was an organization, I would want to be shooting for upside. I know that Brian Flores moves the needle in a very positive way. And I think there is a chance that Jesse Minter might move the needle in a really positive way. I think with Harbaugh, you're getting floor with perhaps a lack of the highest ceiling.

[Matthew Berry]

But I think that's what the Giants ownership wants because they sort of, they took a shot with D ball like, they were like, hey, he was the hot offensive coordinator who had made Josh Allen, Josh Allen. And so now they're like, you know what, this is New York. We've got a huge fan base. They are not happy. We are in a very tough division. Let's go get a known quantity. We're not effing around. And so I think that, you know, as opposed to an. We think Jesse Minter would be a good head coach, but we don't know. I would say like John Harbaugh, like, again, he's a floor. He's not going to F it up.

[Jay]

Dable literally did win coach of the year and I think that was a fine hire ultimately. I mean, it didn't end up great in the end the way it turned out. But the thing is, is that if the Ravens drafted if they had like Josh Rosen as their quarterback instead of Lamar Jackson, John harbor was fired five years ago.

[Matthew Berry]

Like, that's just how this was 10 years ago.

[Field Reporter/Host]

DMG asked where are we drafting Dart next season?

[Matthew Berry]

I think he's in the middle rounds. I look, I think he's going to be like, you know, I think he's in the, you know, 5 to 7 range at quarterback pretty high. Like, I mean, but again, like I'm going to wait on quarterback. So in terms of my overall rankings, he'll be lower probably for me just because I think again, if you can get Jackson dart at can be five, six or seven somewhere, you know, in that range. I haven't really dialed in on my positional ranks here, but quarterbacks. So like we talked about this Brock Purdy, like If you're in a 1, if you're in a 10 team 1 quarterback league or 12 team 1 quarterback league and you wait and you wind up with Brock Purdy as your starting quarterback next year.

[Jay]

You want to Trevor Lawrence if you want to be like Dak Prescott, like, there's so many guys and I do think that like injury risk is so often overblown. That's why people stay away from Christian McCaffrey this year. But Jackson Dart is probably the single biggest injury risk at that position.

[Field Reporter/Host]

El Segundo said Scat being drafted as high as King Henry next year.

[Matthew Berry]

Absolutely not.

[Jay]

No.

[Field Reporter/Host]

No way.

[Jay]

Sacrilege to the king. I would never speak ill of the King.

[Matthew Berry]

Exactly right. Well, Scott, he's drafted as high as Keith Mitchell in your leagues.

[Jay]

Yeah, I take Scott over Ken Mitchell.

[Matthew Berry]

We want him to get healthy, obviously. And again, we don't like if, if we. Once he hires an offense coordinator, we'll Have a better sense of what this offense is going to look like.

[Field Reporter/Host]

They draft another running back in the fourth round where they. It's a little bit split. What if they like Tyrone? This staff likes Ty. Tyrone Tracy more than the previous staff.

[Matthew Berry]

That's right.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Scatterbu will be a nice player, but.

[Matthew Berry]

And that was a serious injury to him.

[Field Reporter/Host]

We're talking about King Henry.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Jay]

Who do you think will be their defensive coordinator?

[Field Reporter/Host]

I saw some smoke around that. They might give Jim Leonard a look from the. From the Broncos, but he's coaching right now, so you wouldn't know about that one yet. Man, that's a tough one because he. I don't think he'll bring Orr with him from Baltimore.

[Matthew Berry]

Right.

[Jay]

Or did an amazing job as well. Watching Aaron Rodgers torch or in the final.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Yeah, that's going to be. It's probably somebody still working. Yeah, you would think.

[Matthew Berry]

I'll tell you who it is not going to be. And that's Mike Tomlin, who. Since the last time we did this show.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Pretty sick. If it was amazing.

[Matthew Berry]

Right.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Could you.

[Jay]

Yeah.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Giants. You have John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin on your coaching staff now.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. So after we did the last show, after we did the Pekockies, the Peacockies, the Steelers announced that Mike Tomlin announced that he is stepping down as head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Here's a tweet from the official account saying, thank you, Coach Tomlin, for the hard work, dedication and success you brought to the Steelers over the last 19 years. The expectation is that Mike Tomlin will have his pick of TV analyst jobs, one of which, of course, is fantasy football happy hour. I've officially offered him your job. Connor, just so you know, that was fun. So we'll see if you're gonna get replaced. Like, yeah, that's the way to go.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Right? Like, oh, like, who took over for you? Mike Tomlin. Be like, oh, okay.

[Jay]

So Tommy can stand at the bar.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Jay]

Peacocky, he can rotate in that with Big Show.

[Matthew Berry]

Anyway, so we'll see.

[Field Reporter/Host]

I was gonna say, if it was like Big show took over for me, I'd be like, hang my head and walk out the building. I might have to be escorted out of the building.

[Matthew Berry]

That's fair.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Kicking my legs as I'm carried.

[Matthew Berry]

But yeah, we've. So we've made an offer to Coach Tomlin. Fantasy Happy Hour.

[Field Reporter/Host]

He doesn't know that yet.

[Matthew Berry]

No. We're in the mix, though, and that's only from me.

[Jay]

We've reached out to some people who might know his people who Will then.

[Matthew Berry]

Try and who his agent is, but I put out a tweet.

[Field Reporter/Host]

I'm hoping.

[Matthew Berry]

We're not saying we'd like to have him.

[Field Reporter/Host]

He doesn't have Twitter, but we're still.

[Matthew Berry]

Hoping somebody that knows him does. One of his kids, maybe.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Mike Tomlin will be the biggest name in the coaching cycle a year from today, correct?

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, that's correct.

[Jay]

Should he be?

[Field Reporter/Host]

I mean, what does the coaching cycle look like?

[Jay]

Yeah. I just don't understand why Brian Flores doesn't get coaching.

[Field Reporter/Host]

He's going because of his lawsuit.

[Jay]

I know, but that's.

[Field Reporter/Host]

So that's. I think Brian Flores is as good of any candidate in this pool. But the objective answer is clearly. And he's getting looks from other teams, which is great. I think Ryan Flores should get a head coaching job this week.

[Jay]

Yes.

[Field Reporter/Host]

But, like, to literally answer your question, I think the lawsuit is why.

[Matthew Berry]

But I know the Cowboys really want him. I heard that the Commanders are going for him. I heard a suggestion on pay him everything. Pay him everything and make him assistant head coach. Like, he's not just offensive coordinator, but.

[Field Reporter/Host]

You know, it's a bigger title.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. Assistant head coach or something like that. Co head coach, whatever that you want to do. But we don't know yet on where Brian Flores will land. It's surprising, by the way, that the Vikings wouldn't just say, like, what does it take to keep.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Isn't it strange that we're kind of all just assuming he's gone, even for a lateral job?

[Jay]

Yeah. I mean, Kevin o' Connell spoke of confidence in keeping him. Kevin o', Connell, by the way, I think a big part of his Coach of the Year award last year, even though this wasn't part of it, is that he hired Brian Flores. He went out on that limb and made that hire, and that is a huge feather. And Koch's bo. But, yeah, I mean, Flores is. I mean, this is the thing. We talk about this all the time. Like, coaching exists outside the salary cap. These guys are so valuable. You got a Brian Flores. If you have. You can get Mike McDaniels, your offensive coordinator. Is he. Yeah, yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

I mean, by the way, the other thing is Mike Tomlin, similar to John Harbaugh, is very much kind of a CEO coach, you know?

[Jay]

Yes.

[Matthew Berry]

Now, I mean, he has experience on one side of the ball, but, like, he's very much like just kind of a. A CEO coach. And so if you have just quote, a CEO coach type. You want Harbaugh, you want Tomlin? Yeah, I kind of think I Want Tomlin because I would argue that Harbaugh over the years more often than not underperformed relative to the talentless team. And I would argue Tomlin overperformed. I mean he's, he's out there gutting it out with freaking Mason Rudolph.

[Jay]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

And Bobby Brister and those types. The only thing is I know he had been for a long time but like they also tough.

[Jay]

Tomlin had some rough years with his offensive coordinators. I think that that's probably one mark against him.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Yes. Yeah, it's there just a very basic limited offense.

[Jay]

Canada offense. Oh, good times.

[Matthew Berry]

But we've seen this many, many times before where you know, we saw, we shot.

[Field Reporter/Host]

We saw that.

[Matthew Berry]

Sorry. We saw it with Sean Payton as well where he just takes a year off, does TV for a year and then is back in. In the. In the coaching cycle as well. And so you know Jon Gruden after, you know, prior to the email fiasco. But Jon Gruden, when he was on Monday Night Football was always mentioned as a.

[Field Reporter/Host]

You stock only goes up. You go on television and you have this like aura now around you of like it only gets better when you go on tv.

[Matthew Berry]

Our colleague Jason Garrett interviewed for the Titans job. So you know, we'll see if Coach.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Garrett gets standing next to you for a year does.

[Matthew Berry]

I know. Can you imagine?

[Field Reporter/Host]

Everybody's like this Jason Garrett guy looks pretty good.

[Matthew Berry]

I look so dumb. They're like, he makes Barry look okay.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Right.

[Matthew Berry]

Exactly. Right. That's why it's elevated your guys stock as well. Anyone that can sit next to me and be like, ah, you can survive Barry. Like, you know.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Right. I think it was the great debate video that you talked about.

[Jay]

They wanted to really fired up about Stafford.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, I like that he got very fired up about Matthew Stafford who we'll get to in a minute.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Yep. Let's do some divisional game previews here, guys. Look at the draftkings prices for the Bills against. Well, here's the early line alert was all the lines and where the totals stand which matters a lot. The Rams and Bears is the highest total at 48 and a half.

[Jay]

But snow.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, it's gonna be cold. I think I'd like the under there. I mean I like. I still think I like the Bears plus three and a half in the under. I got it at four and a half. You'll get me in a scarf and a beanie. I don't look good in a beanie. But I'm not toughing it out.

[Field Reporter/Host]

I'm telling you, you should Do a Russian style flappy.

[Matthew Berry]

The Russian style flappy one.

[Field Reporter/Host]

You could do your Russian accent again.

[Jay]

You should wear a dog man costume.

[Matthew Berry]

Ah, you know. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Field Reporter/Host]

I'll recommend the wardrobe. They won't listen to me yet.

[Matthew Berry]

Maria.

[Jay]

Maria won't be taking Roma deuce.

[Commercial Announcer]

Exactly.

[Field Reporter/Host]

This is going to be something you watch on Sunday night and won't miss it.

[Matthew Berry]

Peacock and NBC. I'm a company man.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Notable prices, James Cook and Josh Allen at the top. No surprise there.

[Matthew Berry]

I think the question on DraftKings, of course, if you're playing DFS.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Yeah, look at that logo on the left of it said half.

[Matthew Berry]

I just, you know, I missed that.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Is there any shares of the Broncos offense you would dare touch in this game?

[Matthew Berry]

RJ Harvey, for sure. I think the. The Bills have been bad against the run this entire year. Like, that's been one area you attack. We talked about the loss to the win against Jacksonville. We talked about that. After that loss for the Jags. We were just like, they should have run ETN and Bashal Tootin more. Like they ran all over Buffalo in that game. And I think if they'd run more, they might have had a different result. RJ Harvey is averaging almost 17 touches a game, an 11% target share since he took over as a starter. With J.K. dobbins out for the year, over 15 fantasy points per game. That's what he's averaging. Yeah. Give me R.J. harvey at, you know, $6,200. I think that's a interesting play in this one.

[Jay]

Yeah. I think we need to kind of take a step back and as a. As a nation, as a species, really accept the possibility the Denver Broncos might be going to the Super Bowl.

[Narrator/Announcer]

I know.

[Jay]

Which is a very strange. If you take a step back and think about it and think about the players on this team, think about the quarterback, think about how they've played this year. Like they're favored in this game now because the Bills are so banged up. The lines slipped from Bills minus one off, the Broncos minus one half. Broncos will be favored next week, whoever they play, because they'll be at home. So they're two games away as favored in both games from going to the super bowl and us talking about Bo Nicks for a week leading up to the game in Santa Clara. It's so strange.

[Matthew Berry]

I could see them being this year's Chiefs where they just. They keep squeaking by and you're like, they can't get away. They can't get away with it. And they ended the Super bowl and they get their asses kicked by Seattle.

[Jay]

But the thing is, it's like, it's going to be, yes, Seattle are the most likely team to get out of the NFC because they have home field. It's like Sam Donald against that defense. Like, the Broncos could win the Super Bowl. It's incredible. It feels like they barely made the playoffs. They were once.

[Matthew Berry]

I know, I know. I said I think they're fraudulent, but, you know, we'll see.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Ryan Oswald. Should I use KW3 or RJ this week? In a one and done league, you can only use someone once for the entire postseason. See.

[Jay]

Because you'll never get a more favorable matchup than the Niners run defense. And they're seven and a half point favorites as well.

[Matthew Berry]

The only argument for RJ Harvey is, is that who's. Again, it's one and done. So. So the point is, is that there's a chance that we expect KW3 to be available next week. Like, we think they're what, seven and a half point favorites. We think Seattle is definitely winning. This is a one. This is a pick them game, basically. And so there's a chance that RJ Harvey's not available to him next week because the Broncos lose. We feel pretty good about the chance of Ken Walker being there and whether, you know, whether they're playing the Bears or the Rams, like, they're still gonna be able to run the ball. I don't know. I mean, it's hard to know who else Ryan Oswald has used. I agree with you. I would have Ken Walker the third. Ken Walker III has a better matchup this week, but I think I would go with RJ Harvey just because I think there's a better chance that Ken Walker is available to me next week versus RJ Harvey. You're just not. You have to think through that way, too.

[Jay]

Depends on your other options.

[Field Reporter/Host]

For sure. Valiant Vincent with the nice assist reminding me it's a trapper hat famously used in the movie Fargo.

[Matthew Berry]

Yes, Fargo and Grumpy Old Men.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Didn't see that only. So Fargo.

[Jay]

Have you seen Fargo?

[Narrator/Announcer]

Matthew?

[Matthew Berry]

I have seen Fargo.

[Jay]

Are you lying?

[Matthew Berry]

Why?

[Field Reporter/Host]

About that in the Rolodex.

[Matthew Berry]

No, I have not seen the TV show. There's a TV show? Fargo. And I was like, I've not seen that one. But the one with William h. Macy, France, McNormand. McDormand. I have seen Fargo.

[Jay]

Yes.

[Matthew Berry]

It's fantastic. I'm a big. I'm a big fan of. Why am I blanking on the Coen Brothers? Thank you. The Brother, like I've seen, you know, raising Arizona. I've seen almost all the country for Old Men. Huh? I've seen all the Coen brothers movies. I think they're fantastic.

[Jay]

You can wear a floppy hat like Javier Bardem's haircut. Yes.

[Matthew Berry]

There you go.

[Jay]

No country for Old men.

[Matthew Berry]

There you go. That'll be the pitch I make to.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Wardrobe our next game, guys.

[Matthew Berry]

I'm going to be in a beanie and look dumb. That's what's going to happen.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Oh, we got some props here, of course, for the Broncos.

[Matthew Berry]

By the way, for the last five games, Cortland Sutton with a 26% target share, James Cook in 17 of the 18 Bills team running back touches last week, 100% of their running back rush attempts. He's at 7,300. And how about Khalil Shakir, who had a 34% target share last week, 12 receptions as well. I like the over on Khalil Shakir's receiving yards here, Jake, just because I think he plays in the slot, he'll avoid pats or tan. And I think that's how they're going to have to move the ball against the Denver Broncos.

[Jay]

Yeah, obviously, no Terrell Shavers, who tore his acl. No Gabe Davis, he played.

[Matthew Berry]

And RJ Harvey. Give me RJ Harvey turned back in.

[Field Reporter/Host]

I feel like Shavers tried to gut through it.

[Jay]

Yes. Which I haven't seen since Klay Thompson in Game 6 of the NBA Final 2019. But. And Gabe Davis also out. So very thin wide receiver room. I think Josh Allen at 209 and a half is a little low for his passing yards prop because I understand it's the Denver defense. Denver's also an elite rushing defense too. And the thing with Allen is that he can create out of structure. He can escape the pass rush even if he's only got one good leg. And the thing with the Broncos is they do give up explosives down the field. Think back to that Jags game a few weeks ago where Lawrence was airing it out. And so if you can avoid the pass rush and you can target the guy who is not Patrick Satan, then I think that Allen can have some success. So I think in a, yeah, obviously everything on the line type of game, the Josh Allen will have 210 plus passing yards.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, I mean, I think in any type of these games, you know, I would do it if you want. If Josh Allen, anytime touchdown would be, you know, one that I think you feel pretty good about. I don't know what his rushing prop is, but I'd take the over on that. Whatever that line is his.

[Jay]

It's just the health is a bit of a concern now for Alan Conner. Like, he has three different injuries on the injury report. And also, he's. He's literally limping after the game because of the knee hyperextension.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Kind of jarring. What he comes back from over and over again and never looks limited in the moment.

[Jay]

No, no.

[Matthew Berry]

The adrenaline takes over.

[Field Reporter/Host]

It's like leg bends. One way. He's got a foot injury already.

[Jay]

It also feels like he's playing with, like, a broken bone in his foot or something.

[Field Reporter/Host]

After he took the snap against the jets and came off the field to not play in the game, it didn't look pretty when he jogged off the field. I'm like, this is just.

[Matthew Berry]

No, it's amazing.

[Field Reporter/Host]

But, yeah, it is. It is tough our next game, guys.

[Matthew Berry]

But he is the hero we need.

[Jay]

Yes.

[Matthew Berry]

I don't officially speak for NBC executives, but I was like, who needs him?

[Field Reporter/Host]

And then I kind of.

[Matthew Berry]

I'm gonna just tell you, as somebody who's gonna be doing his first super bowl here in a handful of weeks, right? I would like a Super bowl that has Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. That would be the.

[Jay]

We'll take Drake May. We'll take Drake May. Patriots.

[Matthew Berry]

Drake May.

[Field Reporter/Host]

I'm a Texans man myself, C.J. stroud. No, no, no. I just want. I want no points.

[Matthew Berry]

From a TV point of view. The best story is Josh Allen and the Bills finally making a Super Bowl. Sure of.

[Jay]

I just think second best stories. Drake May. Yes, I agree.

[Matthew Berry]

All due respect to the Broncos. Listen, I was born in Denver. You know what I mean? So I have a.

[Jay]

Claiming all these areas.

[Matthew Berry]

I mean, it's a fact. I was actually born in Denver, Colorado. Rose Hospital. Shout out. Rose Hospital.

[Jay]

We actually born in Rose. I had a daughter born in Rose Hospital in Denver, Colorado.

[Matthew Berry]

Yes, 1,000%. That's very strange.

[Jay]

Yes.

[Matthew Berry]

Rose.

[Jay]

That Rio was not a good outlook for riot.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Rio's future outlook not good.

[Jay]

It's quite a twist ending. The biggest twist since. Yeah. The head in the Box in seven.

[Matthew Berry]

Which is M. Night Shyamalan movie. A lot of those I haven't seen.

[Jay]

Okay.

[Matthew Berry]

I have seen Sixth Sense.

[Jay]

You only need to see the first two or three.

[Matthew Berry]

Sense is the only one.

[Jay]

Yeah. Unbreakable is fine.

[Matthew Berry]

The rest, Unbreakable takes forever to get going. It does get to it. And then when. When. And then the reveal happens. You're like, okay, finally. And then the movie's over. You're like, okay, now we now we've got something. Let's go and then the movie's over.

[Jay]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. I'm a yeah, I'll avoid it. M. Night Shyamalan. One one.

[Commercial Voice]

He's.

[Matthew Berry]

He's like men without hats. He's a one hit movie guy.

[Commercial Voice]

Whoa.

[Jay]

Yeah.

[Field Reporter/Host]

That's a deep accusation.

[Jay]

Yes.

[Field Reporter/Host]

One hit wonder.

[Jay]

One hit wonder.

[Field Reporter/Host]

I gotta go through the Rolodex.

[Matthew Berry]

He has one good movie and that's Sixth Sense.

[Jay]

Yes. Is okay.

[Matthew Berry]

Unbreakable. He's had other movies that have been commercially successful. My argument. He's had one good movie.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

And that's Sixth Sense.

[Jay]

Is a great movie. Unbreakable is one good scene.

[Field Reporter/Host]

The village was okay.

[Jay]

The villagers takes ages to get to a payoff that doesn't matter. The M. Night Shyamalan, he's a one trick pony.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Rolodex anymore. Seahawks, Niners. Speaking of, get to it.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Jackson Smith and Jigba and Christian McCaffrey two of the most expensive players. Of course, if you had to pick between them, Jay, where would you go?

[Jay]

I would go with Jackson, Smith and Jigbo. We saw the success that he was able to have against the Knights in the last matchup. I think he only went 6 for 84, but he. He was able to largely do what he wanted. And just thinking back to the game that McCaffrey had against the Seahawks. McCaffrey did very little against Seattle and seemed like they were very well geared to stop him. Now, there's no Trent Williams in that game. There was no Ricky Pearsall in that game, which would give McCaffrey a bit more space. But I would have more faith in jsn. Thing with the Niners is like, yeah, most defenses you can take try and take away something. I don't think they're equipped to really take away anything against Seahawks.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Right.

[Matthew Berry]

If you tell me one of the. To me, it's both about floor and upside. Obviously, both players have tremendous upside, but if you tell me one of these guys falls flat on their face, Chris McCaffrey much more likely to struggle against the Seahawks defense than Jackson, Smith and Jigba against this banged up Niners defense. In the two matchups previously, JSN averaged almost 17 fantasy points per game. He had a 44% target share in those two games. And again, in a game where it's win or go home, that's where they're going to be looking all the time.

[Jay]

I think it also gets a little lost that in the Week 18 matchup, JSN was like a toenail away from a 50 yard touchdown, but he stepped out of bounds like the 30 or something. So Jason, he did whatever he wanted against the Niners and that was in a game where they were giving up a ton on the ground as well. So I think that, yeah, with two weeks to prepare for this game, huge rest advantage. The Seahawks are 7 1/2 point favorites for a reason and JSN should feast.

[Field Reporter/Host]

The all time comment here from Kate Gemma. Mr. Crocodile Dundee 3 taking shots at M. Night Shyamalan is like Charlie Kohler taking shots at George Kittle.

[Matthew Berry]

Wow, wow, wow. Are you saying I'm the Charlie Kohler of screenwriting?

[Jay]

Unbelievable.

[Field Reporter/Host]

That's actually like more credit than you may deserve. Honestly's a pretty useful NFL player.

[Matthew Berry]

That's fair. No, and I'll tell you, I'll tell you why not. I, I, it's not me. Well, it's fair actually. But, but all I was going to say is, is like the difference here is that I admit Croc is not a good movie. I admit that it's not a good movie. Right? I mean like we were given a bunch of parameters by.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Here we go.

[Jay]

The Excuseler.

[Matthew Berry]

You're damn right.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Crocodile Dundee 3 wasn't that great.

[Jay]

You didn't post a photo of yourself and Paul Ogan on Instagram a couple days ago?

[Matthew Berry]

I did. 100% did.

[Jay]

When Matthew Berry is a young thin man with hair.

[Matthew Berry]

I was, I was a young thin man with hair. No, I did the trend where, you know, at some point someone will tell you something. It's very important. You never listen to them. So I posted a photo of me and Paul Hogan and my writing partner, Eric Abram. Shout out to Eric, wherever he is. And he's in la. But, you know, I haven't talked to him in like a month or two. But, but, but, you know, it's, I just basically said, hey, you're, you know, in your 20s, you will be a Hollywood movie writer, but you will hate your job. You will want to quit to try to make a career at fantasy football. Everyone will tell you you're, tell you you are crazy. And then it flips to a bunch of pictures of me doing this, saying, but it's very important that you don't listen to him. And it's with the Billy Joel. He's a good edit. Yeah, yeah. Like my daughter did it. Shout out to my daughter Brooks. She's the one who did the whole thing. But yes, anyway, I admit it's a bad movie. And, but, and I also argue, even though I'm Wearing my excuseler hat. That star executive producer and co author Paul Hogan had more influence over the plot and storytelling of crocodile in Los Angeles than I did a lowly screenwriter.

[Jay]

His fault.

[Matthew Berry]

Yes, yes, it was Dev.

[Jay]

Stupid Dev. Trying to work back here but getting tunnel vision with the guys roasting my all time favorite director. Listen, Dev Iflin is your favorite director. You got big problems my friend because here's the thing. He hit one home run with a six sense and then he hit two sac flies with unbreakable signs and he struck out on three pitches. On everything else that he's done number one.

[Matthew Berry]

That's a tough.

[Jay]

Have you watched old because it's not good.

[Matthew Berry]

Come on.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Stupid.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, stupid Dev. Now back to sorry Dev, you had a chance there you were Emmy award winning Dev, you were. Now it's back to runner up Dev. Now you're stupid Dev. You're back to stupid Dev with that M night shalom on Paul Thomas Anderson, Martin Scorsese. By the way, Dev Dev. Now officially a nominee for worst movie. Take next year the peacocky.

[Field Reporter/Host]

There you go. Favorite director Jay, what about this board?

[Jay]

Yeah. So looking at the props of 49ers Seahawks, Sam Darnold said 233 and a half passing hours narrowly above Brock Purdy. We will get to Kenneth Walker's rushing prop later in the show gentlemen. But it is pretty stunning to see Christian McCaffrey only at 53 and a half rushing yards. I don't think he came close to that in the first matchup. But going up against the Seahawks who have arguably the best rushing defense in the NFL. The interesting thing I think is with the receiving yards for the Niners guys in which Niners receiver is the most attractive because there's not a lot of options here.

[Matthew Berry]

No. And 40, 40 yards for Joanne Jennings feels like. I mean the problem is if Pearsall is back they just have a lot of options here. How about Jake Tongas though who scored in three the past four games that George Kittle wasn't out. I think Tangas maybe for an anytime touchdown or just you know over on his receiving prop. Seahawks struggle against opposing tight ends. I think Tangas is actually pretty interesting this week.

[Jay]

The game winning touchdown against the Seahawks back in week one when Kittle went down that game.

[Field Reporter/Host]

So yeah, it is surprising how low some of those numbers are considering the total of this game is still 45.

[Jay]

And a half which I don't really get.

[Field Reporter/Host]

That's what I'm trying to match up.

[Jay]

Yeah, I mean the market is projecting that it's going to be the Seahawks doing the bulk of the scoring. So JSN set at 93 and a half receiving yards. So he's the only guy expected to really pop off. But yeah, I think this is going to be a low scoring.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Right. Here's my counter to that. With this the market thing in the Seahawks will score a lot. If the Seahawks control this game, they're not going to tell Sam Darnold to just drop back and go wild. They're going to be very calculated. They are run heavy team under Kubiak anyway.

[Jay]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

And they. I mean the last time that was. It was week 18. Right. That they played the Niners and like Charbonnet and Walker just crushed them. Like just ran at will against those guys and I don't know why they would go away from that. Like I would be like I'm going to run these guys until you stop them. Yeah, they are the argument a different plan this time.

[Jay]

But still I think the argument for scoring in this game, Connor, would be that Trent Williams and Ricky Pearsall changed the complexion of the Niners offense because Purdy. Purdy won. He was under siege and then he had no one creating separation.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Right.

[Jay]

And now look, you lose Kittle who played in Week 18, but Pearceau's ability to separate if he's healthier and just Trent Williams giving him a bit more time could change things a little bit.

[Field Reporter/Host]

I think the second argument is the more times you see Kyle Shanahan, he's going to have more answers for you. And to be fair to Mike McDonald, he'll know how to counter as well. But it can't be like last time. Last time was just. It was insane. All right, our next game, guys.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, I think there's a. You think they kill him, right? You think the Seahawks just absolutely destroy him. I was going to say I could see a backdoor cover here.

[Jay]

Yeah, I don't think It'd be a 20 point winner.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Texans Patriots. This board not really that crazy. Nico Collins might not play.

[Jay]

Yeah.

[Field Reporter/Host]

I wouldn't expect in this game. He's trending towards not playing. So the board, there's not a lot of high priced players in this game and that's because the Texans defense is just a buzzsaw, Matthew.

[Matthew Berry]

It really is. And so I mean, you know, I could see, I could see if you wanted to go with the argument for Drake Mays that maybe he uses his legs a little bit more. He's averaging almost 40 rushing yards a game over the past five games. He had like over 60 last week as well. And so again, thinking about the pressure that Houston brings, could Drake May get on his wheels and try to avoid pressure here? But like this feels like over under 40 and a half. This feels like a game to try to avoid in fantasy line of decision making. Unless you are trying, unless you're in a large field tournament and you're just trying to, you know, go contrarian here. I will say that Christian Kirk at 4,128% target share last week, you know, eight for 144 and a touchdown. Nico Collins not there. He'll avoid Christian Gonzalez being in the slot.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Right.

[Matthew Berry]

Christian Kirk becomes sort of interesting, I think in this one.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Best game ever last week.

[Jay]

Yeah, he won them. And people forget like because it ended up being such a blowout. But that was a close game going to the fourth quarter. If they don't complete that third and 15, Christian Kirk could be a different outcome. I do think as imposing as the Texans defense is, and I think it's between them and the Seahawks, who has the best defense in the league. I do think they are a little bit inflated now because it felt like Aaron Rodgers could have had 30 drives in that game and he was never going to score a touchdown. It just felt completely untenable. Drake May is a different animal. And Drake May's ability to create outside of structure to take shots down the field as well, I think it will look a bit different. Like teams have been able to move the ball at times against the Texans this year. So Drake May, I think he has it in him to have a big game here, even if it is a very difficult matchup.

[Matthew Berry]

What do we think About Ramondre Stevenson? Three straight games with 100 or more scrimmage yards. But now he faces the Texans defense.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Their linebackers are as fast as I've seen in a long time. Yeah, it's just.

[Matthew Berry]

I agree. I just think for fantasy lineup decisions for I think this is a game to avoid. Texans defense at 3400. Interesting. Although again, because the mobility of Drake May, you know, I don't know that they get home the way you think.

[Field Reporter/Host]

They might, but they create takeaways. That's why I'd pay the price for this one. And Drake May for all his.

[Jay]

It wasn't great.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Amazing plays. He'll take chances through the air and he holds the ball.

[Jay]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

If Nico Collins is out, by the way, also just one last person in here. Dalton Schultz is interesting in the games in which he's seen at least five targets and if there's no Nico Collins. You would expect Schultz to see at least five targets. He's averaging over 13 fantasy points per game. So you know Schultz again, nothing sexy about Dalton Schultz, but he will catch it and fall down. Here's some of the props.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Yeah, not a surprise. Pretty low numbers across the board on this one, Jay.

[Jay]

Yeah, Woody marks at 56 and a half is a little interesting to me, just given that the Patriots rush defense in the second half of the year hasn't been fantastic, and particularly if Nico Collins isn't going to go. This could be a defensive battle where the Texans are looking to to run the ball as is their. Their wants. Don't mind Kayshawn Booty 31, and a half long reception. Yeah, he just needs one.

[Matthew Berry]

Stefan Diggs 47 and a half. Hashtag revenge game for Stefan Diggs.

[Jay]

He played eight games. Yeah, he's one of the Buffalo revenge.

[Matthew Berry]

Games, but he knows those guys. I don't know. Interesting. I feel like Stefan Diggs always shows up in the big games for the Patriots. Yeah, he just.

[Jay]

He's just, you know, he's the guy against man coverage, and the Texans play a ton of man coverage. That's what they do. This is a huge game for Drake May. This is going to be fun because he's going to finish either first or second in mvp. Now he gets to, you know, to go up against maybe the best defense in football, and his ability to create outside structure is going to determine the game. Yeah, our last.

[Matthew Berry]

Connor wants a Texans Seahawks Super Bowl.

[Jay]

I'd love that.

[Matthew Berry]

American. American.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Texans, Rams. Texans, Seahawks. Texans, Bears.

[Matthew Berry]

Texas Seahawks would be 10, 7.

[Jay]

To be fair, it was like 2719 when they played earlier this year as a shootout. JSN destroyed Derek Stingley.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Right.

[Jay]

So that'd be an interesting.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Texans defense on their own could score 14 points.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, that's true.

[Jay]

So it's fair.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Our last game, guys, that's the highest total of the week, which we were slightly surprised by the 48.5 number. But the Rams going to Chicago. Matthew going to Chicago in his Trapper hat going to Chicago with his $9,000 price tag.

[Jay]

Comrade Betty.

[Matthew Berry]

I'm trying to think about the Russian phrases. I can't at the moment.

[Jay]

Nosfer. Daniel. Yes. Goodbye.

[Matthew Berry]

Okay, I'll sign off. I'll sign off my draft, you know. Yeah. The crown is not yours, it's mine. Welcome to Communist Russia. All right. Pukinakua. 35% target share. It was a kind of a high line here, but as we've talked about, this Bears defense isn't that good. And if there's anyone you're going to bet on to just absolutely crush in this big game, I think it's Puka Nakua.

[Field Reporter/Host]

They're opportunistic is what the Bears are.

[Jay]

Yeah. The only thing is with the Rams is their offense hasn't really looked right ever since the first Panthers game. And understand that they had success at the end and Stafford was able to drive for winning touchdown. But Stafford, at one point, the completion percentage wasn't great. They just haven't looked like they've been rolling at the same level that they were in the middle part of the year. But at the same time, this Texan, this Bears defense got gashed for 42 by the Niners and the Niners scored three points the week after against Seattle. So also Jordan Love threw for four touchdowns and kind of did whatever he wanted until late in the game.

[Matthew Berry]

That's the argument for Stafford. Right. 323 yards and four touchdowns for Jordan Love last week against. Against these same Bears. And we like Matthew Stafford more than we like Jordan Love. We like Fukinaku and Devonte Adams more than Matthew golden and Jaden Reed and Romeo Dobbs and all the guys there.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Let's look at the props for this game in Chicago. Once again, a high point total despite the very, very cold weather. Matthew Stafford's passing line as high as you'll see at this point in the playoffs. J267 and a half.

[Jay]

Yeah, and there is expected to be snow on Sunday in Chicago, but I don't think the wind is going to be so significant. Not expecting rain, which Matthew will like. And so I think Stafford, the elements I don't think should deter him too much. Also, we saw as much as Stafford has struggled outdoors at times, like think back to the playoffs last year against Philadelphia. He played pretty well in that game. Was able to put up numbers there against a much more ferocious defense than he'll see in Chicago. I do think the rushing attack as well the Rams could be interesting here. You can run on the Bears. Blake Corum continues to get a lot of work.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, he does. Other side of the ball though. I think I would probably take unders on like DeAndre Swift, like the way you attack. First off, we think the Rams are going to. They're going to get into a shootout here. The Rams are going to be able to move the ball against Chicago and I just don't think the Bears will be able to run and play kind of the methodical type game that they want to. I think it's going to have to be Caleb Williams arm. So Colson Loveland becomes sort of interesting in this game and I just, I'm worried about DeAndre Swift and Kylmanungai going up against that Rams defense. But you as the Carolina Panthers and Jalen Coker showed, yeah, you can throw against this Rams secondary that I think.

[Jay]

Might be a little overrated but shaky also. Great coaching matchup here. McVay Johnson the other NFC matchup to Shanahan McDonald. These might be the I think they are the four best coaches in the NFC.

[Field Reporter/Host]

You see when McVay was asked about if he's spoken to LaFleur on the phone, it's a very funny moment.

[Matthew Berry]

Okay.

[Field Reporter/Host]

He like, he like kind of hinted like duh with a smile but then kind of deflected away from the question and smiled again. It's the Ben Johnson rivalry against that coaching tree is fascinating. Sunday night, everything is on the way.

[Matthew Berry]

We're very close to the floor.

[Field Reporter/Host]

McVay in the divisional round. Matthew Stafford leads the Rams against Caleb Williams and the Bears. The NFL divisional round Sunday, 6 Eastern on NBC. And Peacock, we're taking our first break. When we're back, we're answering some of your biggest offseason questions. What's on tap after this?

[Matthew Berry]

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[Matthew Berry]

So, yeah, I'm on the Peak hockeys, but I'm honored to be here. I've never been hotter. Does Bud Light still sponsor their show? I could really use a beer.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Stick around for what's on tap.

[Matthew Berry]

Absolutely. Bud Light. It's easy to enjoy on Sunday.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Yeah. Fridge full of beer.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, absolutely. But you have to drink it in the peacocky outfit.

[Field Reporter/Host]

What's on Tap is brought to you by Bud Light, the official beer sponsor of the NFL. Sundays are easy to enjoy when they are full of football and the fridge is filled with beer. And we're going to make it even easier for you by taking some of your best questions. And the first one comes from Valiant Vincent, of course, or Valiant Twitch on Twitter who said what do you think of Cam Ward as a second quarterback in Super Flex? I liked a lot of what I saw from him down the stretch.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, I think that's. I think potentially my answer here is I want to know sort of what this team does. I want to know who their coach is. I want to know what they do in the offseason. They need to give Cam Ward some help. But I agree with Valiant Vincent here, Connor, that I thought he showed signs of progress in the second half despite the fact that he wasn't surrounded by very much. There was a coaching change, obviously. Callanan out. Mike McCoy, interim head coach in as well for Cam Ward. But in each of his last four completed games, multiple touchdown passes. His pass rating was like over 100 starting in week 15. So, yeah, I mean, there's a reason why this guy was the number one overall pick next year, right?

[Field Reporter/Host]

You saw the talent. The last couple games. It felt like he was throwing two touchdowns every single game. He looked really improved and that was with no help. And it feels like for Tennessee, as much as they've struggled a lot, this is a job that I think they can do pretty well. They might be able to get a Kevin Stefanski, even if they went down the road of a defensive guy like a Robert Sala. Can he bring in a Mike McDaniel or a Kliff Kingsbury.

[Matthew Berry]

Jason Garrett.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Jason Garrett.

[Matthew Berry]

Shout out to our guy, Jason Garrett.

[Field Reporter/Host]

The bottom line is this.

[Matthew Berry]

Garrett's a great. By the way. Anyway.

[Field Reporter/Host]

No one's denying that.

[Matthew Berry]

Huh?

[Field Reporter/Host]

No one's denying that.

[Matthew Berry]

No, I know. I'm just saying Jason Garrett's a good coach. Jason Garrett's a good coach.

[Field Reporter/Host]

The point is they will put an emphasis on getting the right offensive staff around him.

[Jay]

How much of a problem is it how long Cam Ward holds onto the ball?

[Field Reporter/Host]

Honestly, I think it's just why you love him and why sometimes he might be frustrated with that. Like it's part of his greatness.

[Jay]

Yeah.

[Field Reporter/Host]

You don't want to ever take that away from a player because then it can limit them in a way that makes them not what they were.

[Jay]

And as we've seen with Caleb Williams this year, you can weaponize that because Caleb, the knock on him was he holds onto the ball well this year. He never got sacked. So if Ken Ward can turn that switch.

[Field Reporter/Host]

The fumbles are our problem.

[Matthew Berry]

Needs it. Coaching staff and players around him. But he's going to be in that 18 to 24 range. So. Right on the border. Valiant Vincent of being super flex eligible for sure.

[Field Reporter/Host]

See Gravo5 asked if Tyreek goes back to the Chiefs. What are your thoughts?

[Matthew Berry]

Super interesting. Obviously it's healthy. Yeah. How healthy? I mean, like he had that knee injury in week four that was serious one. It looks really, really bad. He's 32 years old.

[Jay]

Right.

[Matthew Berry]

Or will be when this season starts next year. Friend of the podcast, Tyreek Hill. So. Yeah, but if healthy, like they need help, you know, they. Xavier Worthy did not take the step forward that we thought he would. This year you're gonna have Rasheed Rice in the middle of the field.

[Jay]

But.

[Matthew Berry]

But assuming that Travis Kelce retires, which I don't know if that he's going to or not, but assuming he does, it feels like the Chiefs are going to need some more weapons. But it's all health related to me. He'd be an interesting flyer. I don't know that I'm targeting. You're not drafting him the way you used to.

[Jay]

Yeah. Do they need more wide receivers like you have Xavier Worthy and Rasheed Rice and Hollywood Brown.

[Field Reporter/Host]

The problem is outside of Rashee Rice, I don't think any of those guys are good.

[Jay]

Is he outling Xavier Worthy?

[Matthew Berry]

When you're that light targets there.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Right. I mean, the tight end was a huge part of the offense. We don't know if the tight end's in the offense next year.

[Matthew Berry]

We also don't know if Mahomes is going to be back for opening day.

[Jay]

You almost want Tyree Kill back there. Just the hope that it reactivates Mahomes deep ball accuracy because he hasn't been able to throw the deep ball to anyone who's not Tyree Kill.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. So I mean my guess is he would be if you knew he was fully healthy and you knew Mahomes was going to be back there for week one. He's in the, you know, wide receiver, 25 to 35 range. Off the top of my head like a low end wide receiver 3, high end wide receiver 4 with obviously some upside, but obviously concern because he's, he's older, injury prone and they've got, you know, the offense is going to go through Rashee Rice next year.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Be sauce with our last question. If you're in a 10 team league, is Tyler Schuck a quarterback you roster as your second quarterback, borderline starter or just leave them as a free agent?

[Jay]

Absolutely. A number two quarterback.

[Narrator/Announcer]

Yes.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

But you leave him as a free agent if you're in a 10 team league. So the question is if you're in a 10 team league, one quarterback league, you're not saying you don't need a second quarterback like I, when I play in those leagues.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

And that's ESPN standard format. A 10 team, one quarterback league. When you play in a. There's, there's, there's so many quarterbacks in the waiver. I'm not going to waste a roster spot on a second quarterback.

[Jay]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

Do I think he's a top 20 quarterback next year? I do, but I just, I'm not in terms of roster construction. I just wouldn't put a second quarterback there.

[Jay]

Yeah, that's, that's fair. I do think that there is a chance that Tyler Shot could be a top 10 fantasy quarterback next year. He can run. He was accurate. He has a superstar wide receiver and Chris Olave, he has I think an offensive line that's young and has upside and he has, you know, Kellen Moore and he's a good tight end. So yeah, there are worlds where Tyler Shock could be a top 10 quarterback. But yeah, to your point, you don't need to draft two in that, in that format.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. And like let's see who if they add somebody in the draft or free agency where you're like to add to that offense to maybe replace Rashid Shahid. But right now he's going to be in that 16 to 20 range for me so a lower end QB2 certainly like him a lot. He's very viable in super flex or deeper leagues. But 10 team one quarterback leagues. I'm leaving him as a free agent to answer Burt's question.

[Field Reporter/Host]

That'll do it for what's on tap. Presented by Bud Light. Easy to drink, easy to enjoy. We're taking one more break. When we're back, we have our best picks to impress Matthew. Pick up blinds after this.

[Matthew Berry]

Can't wait for Jay.

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[Narrator/Announcer]

Are a game changer. Traditions have the power to turn a simple moment into a memory. Bring a whole city together and they're even what inspires us at Tostitos to make our masa the traditional way. Starting with whole corn kernels, no artificial flavors, colors or preservatives. We craft our chips for whatever your tradition is. Tostitos tradition matters. Official chip and dip sponsor of the.

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[Field Reporter/Host]

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[Matthew Berry]

Oh, the crown is yours.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Last call. Pick up lines. I've crawled out of the depths.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, to above 500, you're above 500, you're bet cashing. It's been a tough year for Jay.

[Jay]

Yeah.

[Field Reporter/Host]

He has a lot of other good betting takes.

[Matthew Berry]

He does, yes. But it's been a. It's been A tough year for Jay, captured by the fact that he found out. Is it me?

[Field Reporter/Host]

Yeah. You're choosing him?

[Matthew Berry]

I'm choosing Ron.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Yes.

[Matthew Berry]

No, no, no.

[Jay]

Continue though the coast.

[Field Reporter/Host]

Continue on.

[Matthew Berry]

It's fine. It's not me that crowned the Celts the AFC champion and then immediately killed.

[Jay]

Him as he killed the Colts. Okay, you're gonna like this one. This is a good one. Kenneth Walker, his rushing prop is 59 and a half against the San Francisco 49ers who have no players left on defense. They ranked second last in the NFL in terms of rushing success rate allowed. Only the Giants are a worse rushing defense than them. If only we'd seen Ken Walker go up against this defense two weeks ago. Oh, wait, we did. He went 16 for 97 on the ground and there's no outlier long run there. His longest run in that game was 20 yards. And you might say, oh, Zac Charbonnet takes some work away. You know, I had more carries than Ken Walker two weeks ago. Zach Charbonnet had 17 carries. Ken Walker still went 16 for 97. That was in a game that was about pick. Now the Seahawks are seven and a half point favourites at home. If they get up in this game as expected, they're not going to let Sam Darnold lose them a trip to the NFC title game. They're going to run the ball. Kenneth Walker will get his carries and he'll get at least 60 rushing yards.

[Field Reporter/Host]

It's a good presentation.

[Matthew Berry]

It's a good argument.

[Field Reporter/Host]

I get it. You don't choose me here.

[Matthew Berry]

He sells it well.

[Field Reporter/Host]

I wanted to crank up the pressure on the streak here. Let's go plus money. Daniel Hunter to record a sack is plus 100. Daniel Hunter has a sack in each of his last five games. Did you watch Will Campbell against the Chargers? And Will Campbell's had a really nice rookie season. This is a tough draw for an all pro tackle in the league, let alone a rookie Morgan Moses. On the other side, Daniel Hunter will see both of them. Will Anderson was minus 136. Denal Hunter, who has been on fire, was plus 100. Give me the plus money.

[Matthew Berry]

I really like that bet. I want to take your bet. I want to. You're above.500 as well. I just, you know, having a pick. I feel better about Walker against the 49ers than Daniel Hunter getting a sack against a very mobile quarterback. Like they'll probably get to him, but does he escape it? There's plus money for a reason. It's closing time. You don't have to go in, but you can't see here. Watch me freeze in Chicago Sunday night. We're back on Monday for Jay and Connor. I'm not Matthew. Peace out. Choose to show up.

[Field Reporter/Host]

With the bold.

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