Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry

Episode: Jets-Browns Reaction + Expectations for D’Andre Swift, Terry McLaurin and more
Date: December 29, 2023
Host(s): Connor Rogers, Lawrence Jackson, Jay Croucher
Special Guest: Denny Carter

Episode Overview

This episode, hosted by Connor Rogers, Lawrence Jackson, and Jay Croucher (while Matthew Berry celebrates his birthday), provides an in-depth analysis of the Browns' statement win over the Jets, tackles fantasy implications for the championship week, and explores player trends heading into the weekend. Major discussion points include the Browns’ resilience, Joe Flacco’s improbable late-season surge, award races, key injury updates, deep dives on player expectations (Breece Hall, DeAndre Swift, Terry McLaurin), as well as some high-value DFS and player prop suggestions. Denny Carter brings the Regression Files and Funnel Report, with a blend of fantasy insight and trademark humor.

Key Segments & Insights

1. Jets-Browns Thursday Night Football Reaction

[03:00-07:00]

• Browns dominate Jets 37–20: Attention is on Joe Flacco’s continued success and Cleveland’s playoff clinch.
• Matthew Berry Birthday Banter: The hosts joke about Berry missing the show on fantasy championship weekend and his questionable roster decisions.
  • “Matthew Berry... he stuck the middle finger up to them and said, well, have fun. I’m on the beach.” — Connor [01:39]
• Flacco’s benching drama: Berry dropped Flacco and Jerome Ford ahead of this game—to his apparent chagrin.

Key Takeaways:

• The Browns are the first team to start four different QBs and still make the playoffs, vis-à-vis injuries to key players like Nick Chubb and Deshaun Watson.
• Kevin Stefanski's Coach of the Year Argument (Crowd Consensus):
  • Jay: “The story of this season is so insane...I just don’t think there is any case against Kevin Stefanski. He had his crowning moment, his coronation last night in prime time.” [05:19]
• Comparison to Dan Campbell (Lions): The Lions' improvement seen as linear and expected, while the Browns overcame abnormal adversity.

2. Joe Flacco & Comeback Player of the Year Race

[08:00-14:30]

• Flacco's stats: Four straight games with 300+ passing yards; 13 TDs, 8 INTs in five outings.
• “He’s just let it go. He has an incredible skill, you know, throwing some supposed to be interceptions…” — Lawrence [09:01]
• Comeback Player of the Year Debate:
  • Flacco surges in the race, but there’s pushback against him leapfrogging Damar Hamlin (who returned after his on-field collapse).
    • “He literally died on the field and he’s come back to play the sport that killed him. Like, it’s insane. It’s one of the greatest comeback stories in the history of sports.” — Jay [11:19]
  • Baker Mayfield’s consistency and production should also be considered (15 games, division lead).

3. Fantasy Fallout—Jets & Browns Players

[14:30-17:00; 18:53-21:30]

• David Njoku’s emergence:
  • Top-5 TE status for 2024.
  • Lawrence: “Last four weeks with Flacco starting, averaging 21 points per game. Those are unheard of numbers for tight ends.” [15:22]
• Breece Hall's 2024 Outlook:
  • Hall is considered in the same tier as Kyren Williams next year, just behind Christian McCaffrey, especially with Aaron Rodgers’ return.
  • Lawrence: “Just to see what he’s been doing these past two weeks…he could mix it up and get in there in that first round range.” [20:05]

4. Key NFL Award Races Analyzed

[05:19-07:06; 15:43-18:53]

• Coach of the Year: Stefanski is the heavy favorite ("wrapped up").
• Defensive Player of the Year: Myles Garrett—a standout despite a “low” sack total (14), but unmatched in fast pressures and snap-to-snap disruption.
  • Jay: “There is now just the acknowledgment of what he does just beyond his sack numbers, the amount of attention that he gets.” [16:43]
• Comeback Player of the Year:
  • Damar Hamlin (the sentimental and historical favorite), but the panel notes Flacco and Mayfield's cases.

5. Injury & Lineup Roundup (Championship Week Prep)

[21:28-30:39]

• Quarterbacks:
  • C.J. Stroud returns for Texans (good news for Nico Collins).
  • Jaren Hall (MIN) to start; Justin Jefferson still WR3.
• Skill Players:
  • Josh Jacobs (LV), Michael Pittman (IND), Trevor Lawrence (JAX - shoulder) with status updates.
  • Trepidation about Calvin Ridley (JAX) without Lawrence but optimism for Travis Etienne to carry the load.
• Rest-of-Season/Next-Year Angles:
  • Optimistic about Breece Hall, considerations for Bijan Robinson.
  • Low confidence in Denver’s offense with Jarrett Stidham; Javonte Williams the only viable fantasy play.
• Quick Hit: Jalen Waddle ruled out for Dolphins.

6. Regression Files & Funnel Report (Denny Carter Segment)

[31:30-39:05]

• Positive Regression:
  • Joe Mixon remains a strong candidate for TDs given his goal-line usage, despite recent cold streak.
  • Denny: “Joe Mixon is still the guy in the red zone. That’s important.” [33:27]
• Negative Regression:
  • George Pickens—last week’s 4-catch, 195-yard outburst unsustainable.
  • Denny: “He doesn’t get the layups…He’s a boomer bust wide receiver three.” [34:45]
• Funnel Defense Insights:
  • DeAndre Swift primed for a big game vs. Cardinals (ARZ run D has given up 100+ RB yards in six straight).
  • Lawrence: “If you have a running back...and it doesn’t matter how you feel about them, if they’re playing against the Arizona Cardinals, you let him go off.” [37:14]
  • Patriots D—forces opponents to throw; expect a pass-heavy game for Josh Allen and a Diggs bounce-back.

7. What’s On Tap: High-Scoring Games & DFS/Prop Angles

[40:13-46:58]

1. Lions at Cowboys (O/U 52)

   • Jared Goff is a prime QB play indoors; panel expects a shootout.
   • Jay: “If they're able to protect against Micah Parsons, then you can throw on this defense.”

2. 49ers at Commanders (O/U 50)

   • Terry McLaurin’s value spikes with Jacoby Brissett at QB.
   • Lawrence: “It changes it for the better…When Brissett is entered, it’s been scary hours for defenses.”
   • The hosts expect a big CMC bounce-back.

3. Dolphins at Ravens (O/U 47)

   • Tyreek Hill is a volume monster with Waddle out, but Ravens' D much improved vs. last year.
   • Jay: “The two guys who I think benefit the most are Raheem Mostert and Devon Achane. You can run the ball on Baltimore... I think that’s how Miami will want to play this game.”
   • Cedric Wilson mentioned as the next WR up in Miami for deep leagues.

8. Pickup Lines – Best Bets & Props for the Weekend

[47:48-51:17]

• Jay’s Pickup Line:
  • Chris Olave 120+ receiving yards at +600:
    • “This just is not... right. It’s not correct because Olave, here’s what he has done in his last four healthy games: 94 yards, 114, 119, 123.” [48:00]
• Lawrence’s Pickup Line:
  • Rashee Rice 100+ receiving yards at +330:
    • “He hasn’t had 100 yards in his last five games, however, he’s averaged 10 targets in those five games...” [49:22]
• Connor’s Pick:
  • Leans Rashee Rice for the prop bet, citing a favorable matchup and volume.

Notable Quotes, Highlights & Timestamped Moments

• “[Kevin Stefanski] had his crowning moment, his coronation last night in primetime.” — Jay [05:19]
• “He literally died on the field and he’s come back to play the sport that killed him.” — Jay (on Damar Hamlin’s CPOY candidacy) [11:19]
• “Last four weeks with Flacco starting, averaging 21 points per game. Those are unheard of numbers for tight ends.” — Lawrence (on David Njoku) [15:22]
• “If you have a running back...and it doesn’t matter how you feel about them, if they’re playing against the Arizona Cardinals, you let him go off.” — Lawrence [37:14]
• “[Olave’s] pass funnel that the Tampa Bay defense is…they cannot stop anyone through the air all season. Their run defense is excellent.” — Jay [48:00]

Episode Takeaways

• The Browns' playoff run with Joe Flacco is historic and has locked up Coach of the Year for Kevin Stefanski in the panel’s opinion.
• Joe Flacco’s “comeback” is impressive, but the consensus favors Damar Hamlin for Comeback Player of the Year due to the narrative and his return to the field.
• Fantasy managers should feel confident in Breece Hall as an early first-rounder next season and consider DeAndre Swift a must-start this week.
• Terry McLaurin’s outlook is much brighter with Jacoby Brissett at QB, and David Njoku is trending toward elite fantasy TE status.
• Panel strongly encourages targeting Chris Olave and Rashee Rice in player prop markets due to matchup and opportunity.
• Injury updates and QBs are pivotal for championship weekend start/sit decisions; closely monitor lineups.
• The “Funnel Report” highlights both DeAndre Swift and Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs as volume-based upside plays for Week 17.

Useful for Listeners Who Missed the Show

This episode combines sharp NFL analysis, actionable fantasy insight for your championship matchups, and prop/game angle tips. The host chemistry keeps things light yet focused on helping listeners dominate their fantasy leagues and DFS contests for the all-important Week 17.