← Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry
Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry
Jets-Browns Reaction + Expectations for D’Andre Swift, Terry McLaurin and more
00:51:45
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- [00:01]
A
But, Matthew, I am glad that you're coming into the show today from where Hugh Jackman was trapped in the film Prisoners. And so, yes, it definitely looks like I'm a hostage and I'm trapped. And there's so many other better backdrops.
- [00:16]
B
That I could have had here, but.
- [00:18]
A
Literally none of them would have been.
- [00:20]
B
Like, oh, quiet, where you could hear me.
- [00:22]
A
And just, you know, I thought about doing it outdoors. I just.
- [00:26]
B
Yeah.
- [00:27]
A
Welcome to. Welcome to my bunker.
- [00:33]
C
Fantasy football Happy hour with Matthew Berry. Served by Applebee's.
- [00:39]
B
Happy Friday. Welcome to the Fantasy football Happy Hour. I'm Connor Rogers alongside Lawrence Jackson. Jay Croucher. No, Matthew Berry. Matthew Berry. It's his birthday. He did it, guys. He made it to 100 years old. Happy birthday, Matthew. As well as Happy birthday, Myles Garrett. The birthday boys drink free here at the happy hour on Friday. And a real special shout out to Miles Garrett, who clinched defensive player of the year last night.
- [01:03]
C
Jay?
- [01:03]
A
Yeah, just about. Always thought that Matthew Bearer is the better pass rusher and Miles Garrett the better fantasy analyst. But look, I'm glad that Matthew's taking the day off for his birthday. I used to do that as well when I was seven.
- [01:13]
B
I was gonna ask, were you allowed to do that when you were a kid?
- [01:15]
A
Yeah, when I was seven, the first thing I thought, I wasn't allowed anymore.
- [01:18]
B
When I found out he wasn't on the show today, I was like, oh, man, that was a thing you could do. I wasn't allowed to, but it's something you do when you're five years old.
- [01:26]
C
So when y'.
- [01:27]
B
All.
- [01:28]
C
Yeah, when y' all birthdays come along, you know, you just had to, you know, come back to this day and just kind of shoot. A little reminder. Hey, remember December 29th when Matthew, you were off.
- [01:39]
B
We need to be off today. Fantasy championship weekend. There's people out there in the world that are like, I need Matthew Berry more than ever. And he stuck the middle finger up to them and said, well, have fun. I'm on the beach.
- [01:49]
A
Yes. Instead he's in his. His prisoners like bunker, which he keeps inviting America into, which is terrifying.
- [01:58]
C
Was looking like a hostage on that. But the good thing about that is, you know, he drinks free. So in his bunker, you know, he'll get the little free drinks served for him.
- [02:08]
B
We will FedEx him some margaritas here from the happy hour bar. No, Matthew, but Denny Carter, it's Friday. Denny Carter will be joining us later for the regression files and the funnel report. We don't usually do the funnel report. We Just say the word funnel 700 times. So we'll actually talk about what the funnel report is today as well as we do every Friday. We're going what's on tap with the Bud Light bar for the highest game totals. And Jay and Lawrence will give me pickup lines for once. I don't have to cook them up. I actually get the pickup lines delivered to me.
- [02:37]
C
Well, me. Me and Jay, are you. We're used to, you know, going against each other every. Every Sunday to try to woo Matthew Berry's fantasy football heart. So it'd be. I never got to do this on somebody else before, so it'd be interesting to see, you know, how this goes. Not easy.
- [02:55]
A
And not to make things strange, but you are a lot prettier than Matthew Connor, so I think my trick is more sensitive.
- [03:01]
B
That'll be a little bit better line. I love it. All right, let's get into our Thursday night football fantasy takeaways. If you missed it, the Browns beat. I certainly didn't miss it. The Browns beat the Jets 37 to 20 last night. The Joe Flacco experience continues. And some people, especially in fantasy championship weekend, especially in super flex leagues, that's great news. For other people, I won't name any names, but one of those happens to be his birthday today, and he's not on the show. Matthew Berry. Oh, he dropped Joe Flacco and he dropped Jerome Ford for his fantasy championship in our league that he's already angry about another situation. So, yeah, this is a tough scene.
- [03:44]
A
It was a tough scene. It was a great text thread about Matthew throwing the toys out the pram.
- [03:49]
C
Is either gonna be a championship move or. Or a chump move.
- [03:53]
B
Well, not off to a good start, man.
- [03:56]
C
Yeah, Just punching air right now in that bunker.
- [03:59]
B
Yep.
- [03:59]
A
Just the two touchdowns and 57 yards for drone Ford through the air and then he added on the ground as well. I mean, I think the story of this. Connor and I was texting backup producer Pete about this last night, and I don't think you guys have this expression in America, but it's like the jets, they down tools. They down tools for the season. They put the tools down, they went home, and they just had nothing on defense.
- [04:20]
B
Nothing in a game where I guess we'll get to it in a second. They responded to the first touchdown. Trevor Simeon goes unbelievable drive right down the field against the Browns defense, which is regarded as one of the best defenses in the league under Jim Schwartz. And the jets defense just had no response throughout the game. So for the Browns, they clinched their third playoff berth since the 90s, since 1999, second in four years under Kevin Stefanski. Cleveland clinches the 1 seed. If this week the Dolphins beat the Ravens and next week the Browns beat the Bengals, the Bills beat the Dolphins and the Steelers defeat the Ravens. So a lot needs to happen for them to get the 1 seed. But it's possible as we show you the AFC playoff picture here. And I think more interestingly in this, Jay, because the one seed feels like a long shot. But good for the Browns and their fans who are riding high after last night's game. In this wild season, Kevin Stevenski joined Paul Brown as the only head coach in Brown's history with 10 plus wins in multiple seasons. I mean, this is somebody who is the favorite for coach of the year right now and maybe locked it up on Thursday Night Football.
- [05:20]
A
Yeah, I think this is a wrap. I don't see how Kevin Stefanski loses after this. The story of this season is so insane. They're the first team to ever start four quarterbacks. Four different quarterbacks and make the playoffs. Not only that, but they've clinched with a week to go. They're 11 5. And it's not just the quarterbacks. They're missing their top three tackles, not top two top three tackles. They're missing both their starting safeties. They're banged up across on defense. Nick Chubb, second best running back in the NFL. He went down in the first couple weeks of the season. So I just, I don't think there is any case against Kevin Stefanski. He had his crowning moment, his coronation last night in prime time. I understand that Dan Campbell with the lions and their first division title in 30 years. Stike and McDaniel Ryan's are all having great seasons as well. But I think this is the fancy. I think this is a wrap. I think -275 is value, honestly.
- [06:07]
B
Yeah.
- [06:08]
C
And I think when you look at Dan Campbell in comparison, we're looking at it from that point where it's like, oh, the Lions haven't done this in so long. But last season for the Lions with Dan Campbell like they were on the verge. This was a team that knocked Green Bay out the playoffs. Many people came into this season expecting the Lions to win this division. Now the Browns on the other hand, with desean Watson, they. They were expected to be competitive, but many people thought it would be either the Ravens or the Bengals. So now you eliminate the desean Watson, the Nick Chubb and like you say, missing the lineman and all these players. The Defense is held strong, but they just figured out a way. And it's like when we. When we had the screen up there earlier, there was three teams that clinched the playoffs, the Dolphins, Ravens and Browns. That's crazy to see, knowing that the Chiefs and the Bills are out there and have not clinched. So to your point, Jay, I think he just locked it up.
- [07:06]
B
Yeah.
- [07:07]
A
I think it's quickly on Dan Campbell. I think Dan Campbell's a really good coach. I think that if you want to have him top three, top five coach of the year, that's absolutely fine. But his case for coach of the year is that the Lions sucked for the 28 years before he got there.
- [07:18]
C
Right.
- [07:19]
A
Actually, he doesn't have anything to do with the fact that the Lions were terr. And yes, he's built this program up and he's done a great job, but for me, his season this year, this is linear improvement for the lions. They won nine games and now they're probably going to win 12.
- [07:31]
B
Right. I think that's the key there, Jay, is that if you say Dan Campbell's the coach of the year, you're rewarding a rebuild. That's an amazing rebuild. When he got there to the Lions, I mean, it felt like they were hopeless. Obviously, there's been so much wrong for them for a long time. What him and Brad Holmes have done to rebuild them over a stretch of years is great. If you look at coach of the year as what happened this season and you think of adversity and adjusting and all of those things, Kevin Stefanski is the absolute model of that. With the adjustments they've had to make, and those adjustments they've had to make have been on the back, literally, of Joe Flacco. And another wild game for Joe Flacco, I think the jets hadn't allowed a 300 yard passer in like over 30 games. Obviously, Joe Flacco is the guy to break that. And we got to hear from Flacco after the game on the crowd chanting his name. Yeah, I heard him a little bit.
- [08:19]
A
Yeah, yeah, it's. It's cool. I mean, just put yourself in that position. I mean, you can't deny it. It was, it's, it's.
- [08:28]
B
You know, it's. I said it from the very beginning.
- [08:31]
A
I mean, the city has been unbelievable. Our. My teammates have been unbelievable, like in terms of just embracing me onto this football team. So it's all been great. And it makes it that much more special to, you know, be able to.
- [08:45]
B
Come in here and play some good football. Four straight games for Joe Flacco of 300 plus passing yards last night, three touchdowns as he does Lawrence, he throws a pick. We were joking off air that it could have been three more. But Flacco's going to keep ripping that thing, man. He's just, he's let it go.
- [09:01]
C
He has an incredible skill, you know, throwing some supposed to be interceptions, you know, like they go in your hands and you just drop it. But man, hats off to this dude, man. He is, you know, close the gap drastically for comeback player of the year. And what I was going to say also too is I expected these Browns to have these results, but with Nick Chubb and Deshaun Watson, other guys healthy. So for them to have a guy and Joe Flacco who wasn't getting, who the phone wasn't ringing for the guy, you know, to have him here, he's now, he's now in the playoffs now. Fourth straight game with 300 passing yards. In his five games, he's averaged 323 passing yards. Look at him dropping it in the bucket right there. He's doing the play. He's even being a little mobile, you know, he being a little, he being a little old man mobile too last night. This is the play right here. He gets hit in the face. Quinn Williams chasing down. Here's Jerome Ford, who Matthew Berry benched in his fantasy league.
- [10:04]
B
Dropped him. Lawrence, he wouldn't want him on the roster.
- [10:06]
C
Yeah, didn't even want him on. And there he goes. But yeah, man, Flacco, 13 touchdown passes and four starts, man. So, you know, we talked about him on Wednesday. Is closing it out on the, you know, on the tab against this jets defense, man. But he, after this, I don't know if we could keep betting against them until the playoffs. Yeah, into the playoffs.
- [10:29]
A
The thing with Flacco is I think he's like the chaos agent that is a very good fit for this team because their defense is so good. You want to ride that high variance of a guy who will put up points, he'll also put up turnovers. And last night it kind of gets a little bit lost in the wash that he threw a terrible big six. He fumbled twice. He could have thrown three or four more picks, but he is, I think he is. Overall, you take it all together, he is playing at a much, much higher level than anticipated and he clearly has connections with, with all of these receivers.
- [10:55]
B
Yeah. So let me ask you this, Jay. Has the pendulum swung too far the other way as we sit here and celebrate Joe Flacco and well earned. I mean, it's one of the best stories in the NFL right now. Off the couch, a guy that really couldn't get teams to return his calls.
- [11:07]
C
That was.
- [11:08]
B
Do you think here we go with some of the questionable Flacco, do you think it started to swing too far the other way? That. I mean, he's right up against demar Hamlin for comeback player of the year. Is that an overcorrection at this point?
- [11:19]
A
I think it is. And look, there's a couple of things. One, I can't believe that wasn't picked. One is that with Demar Hamlin, people are looking at his comeback player of the year case through the lens of, well, he's only played a handful of games and a handful of snaps. He hasn't played produced on the field relative to these other candidates. I'm sorry, that's just the wrong lens through which to view his case. He literally died on the field and he's come back to play the sport that killed him. Like, it's insane. It's one of the greatest comeback stories in the history of sports. And I get that he hasn't, you know, he's not Kyle Hamilton out there, but the fact that he has taken a single snap, to me, that should clinch the award for him. But the thing with Flaco as well, I get that Hamlin is a strange case and Flacco is a strange case. Let's just compare Joe Flacco to Baker Mayfield. Like, Flacco has played five games, Mayfield has played 15. Flacco has 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Mayfield has the same number of interceptions at eight. And he has twice his touchdowns. He has twice his wins. He can clinch the division this week. I just don't understand. I get that it's an amazing story, what Flacco has achieved for this Browns team. But, like, how do you vote him over even Baker Mayfield when Mayfield has been there the whole season and played at a higher level?
- [12:25]
C
I would say this. We just. We're talking about the award. Comeback player like Joe Flacco is a player. You mentioned something about demar Hamlin snaps, and it is an incredibly low percentage. So it's. It's more like. It is more story like Joe, like. I think the odds are how they are right now if that crazy scenario happens where the Browns end up with this one seed, sure, he is winning that award. And I kind of look back at Alex Smith when he came back. He didn't die on the field, but his leg did. He came back in the team was dependent upon him for a certain amount of games, like he was their starting quarterback. So. And he had a game where he threw her for two for 390 yards. So you know, for me looking at the odds at how they are now, I would, I would actually put something on Joe Flag. I would feel like that's the best value of the three just because Baker, he's about to win the division. But it's the weakest division. Although they have separated like they're. We couldn't figure out which NFC south team was the best. I think it's clear that it's the Bucks right now, but they, they still have to win it. But if Joe Flacco gets that one seed, man, we're talking about something.
- [13:52]
A
I think if Flaherto gets the one seed then I think it's probably a different scenario. But the thing is, is that they're about 40 to 1 to get the 1 seed and he's plus 100 to win the award. So I think that ultimately what it comes down to me, Flacco is very similar to Brock Purdy's offensive rookie of the year case last year where purdy came in six games. Mr. Irrelevant go six zero. But he didn't factor into the award because he played so few games. And I think the only way you can win this award playing five games is if he literally came back from the dead. And otherwise I think the Flacco will just get compared to Mayfield and the other candidates like Stafford and to it to a lesser extent and ultimately I don't think he's going to win.
- [14:30]
B
Someone that would vote for him though is his teammate David njoku, who had six catches for 134 yards. It felt like all of that was in the first quarter last night. I know Sauce Gardner, Sauce Gardner covered him in the second half and didn't, you know, much didn't happen after that. I think, you know, when you look at Njoku right now, guys, this is someone who he's always had the talent. He's a first round pick, he's a great player. Always fantasy relevant. But no Mari Cooper last night. And even when Cooper plays, Flacco is keying in on Njoku and making him an even bigger part of this offense.
- [15:01]
A
He just looks like an absolute monster. Like this guy is going to be, I think a top five tight end in drafts next season. And when you think about just the dearth of elite tight ends in fantasy and Joku has really thrust himself into that conversation. And look, this jets defense is not what the jets defense was all season but still the ability to do what he did bodes incredibly well. There aren't many tight ends with his ceiling.
- [15:23]
C
Yeah last four weeks with Flacco starting averaging 21 points per game. That's those are unheard of numbers for tight ends and in fantasy 100 yards in two of his last three games. So and we we kind of figured this would be the case without cooperating but like you said even with Cooper that's there that's been their number two guy.
- [15:44]
B
Good call from Matthew. He had Njoku over receiving yards his best bet yesterday and a great call from Jay who had Myles Garrett to get a sack on Thursday Night Football as his best bet. Myles Garrett finishes with six quarterback pressures on top of the sack. An interesting number. Not interesting, just an eye popping number from next gen stats. Myles Garrett recorded all six of his pressures against Makai Becton in under two and a half seconds last night. Garrett is one of two pass rushers to generate over 40 quick pressures this season. He has 54. Micah Parsons is the other one with 60. We have a theme going recapping this game. Jay of awards being wrapped up. We talked about Stefanski coach of the year. We got a little bit into the more debatable one of comeback player of the Year. Feels like Myles Garrett is leaning towards wrapping up Defensive player of the Year and we've been on this for a while. The Micah Parsons hype over him always felt a little off base, especially factoring in the pricing that Myles Garrett had a game against the jets offensive line left.
- [16:43]
A
Yeah, absolutely. It's a bit of a strange world because GARRETT he has 14 sacks. That is not usually the same amount that a defensive player of the year edge rusher will get. But I think there is now just the acknowledgment of what he does just beyond his sack numbers, the amount of attention that he gets. The Beckman had four penalties last night just purely because he was scared of Miles Garrett.
- [17:01]
B
He kept trying to get off the ball early false start after false start.
- [17:04]
C
And he was doing it more often.
- [17:06]
B
He had caught sometimes right 100 Garrett's.
- [17:09]
A
Bend the way that he was able to get so low and Becton just couldn't get that low. It was insane. So I think that Garrett, I don't think it's a wrap the same way that Stefanski is a wrap for coach of the year but I do think there is still some meat on the bone at minus 235. I think that should be more like minus 300 minus 350. Just because if Parsons goes off tomorrow night, has like three sacks against the Lions. And I think it's a discussion again if TJ Watt gets the 22 sacks or something. But ultimately I think the most likely outcome is that the award was won last night.
- [17:39]
B
In this era too, Lawrence of advanced stats, and they're not that advanced, but just pressures and quarterback hits being registered just as much as sacks. I think that's where Watt has lost his case because he always has the eye popping sack numbers. But the snap by snap dominance has been ruled by Garrett and to a lesser extent Parsons. Right.
- [17:54]
C
And just when you look at the sack numbers like you look at a team like the Ravens who lead the league in sacks, but there's no one single pass rusher that you think like, oh man, like it's a collective group. So it's not really always about the numbers. The Ravens don't get as much pressure as you would think from a team who leaves league and sacks. So talking about miles Garrett and T.J. watt, this is the year where Watt, it's more just like it statistically looks good, more. It's like the quarterback conversation. Like we got Lamar at the top right now and he doesn't have 20 touchdown passes yet, but there's a slew of other quarterbacks that do. When you look at them play, you. You take into account the penalties, you take into account how it's affecting the defense as a whole. So I think that's. It seems like that's coming into play, you know, for more than one position and, you know, defensive player of the year is one of those.
- [18:53]
B
All right, as we close out our recap here, a quick note on the jets because there's not a lot on.
- [18:58]
A
The jets in this one that was lost on. How was the ball?
- [19:00]
B
Oh, it was great. You know, after watching that, you get in at 3am, you take the dog out, you go to sleep for two hours, everything's fine.
- [19:06]
A
The problem was is that it was semi a game in the second half. Cleveland couldn't do anything in the second half.
- [19:12]
B
It was very odd how Cleveland's defense too was very jetsey of them to not be themselves against Trevor Simeon for a little bit of that game as well. I mean, the Vanaconda kick return fumble also set it back the other way. It was a mess of the game. But in that mess of a game, guys, as we give a little jets eulogy here, Breeze hall and Garrett Wilson looking good. Especially Breeze hall, we love him. If you want to know where they Rank for next year already Matthew's way too early. 2024 rankings are in his Love hate column from this week. Guys, I think Lawrence, you've only been on with us one other time this week, something Jay and I and Matthew have kicked around. When you look at Breece hall going into next year, obviously Christian McCaffrey right now is in his own tier in fantasy running backs. Kyron Williams has played his way there.
- [19:57]
C
Yeah.
- [19:57]
B
What we've seen from Breece hall without having any real quarterback or offensive line, I mean, where do you stack him up right now in redraft next year?
- [20:06]
C
Well, you mentioned those two guys, CMC and Kyren Williams, and Breece hall is right there. And then after him you'll look at some guys like Jameer Gibbs, probably Rashad White there. You know, Breece hall seeing what he's doing now with the Trevor Simeon with the Zach Wilson. And then you just think about because you know the quarterback's going to be Aaron Rodgers next year. Right. So you take what Aaron Jones was able to do with Aaron Rodgers, those Green Bay years and they never really freed Aaron Jones. Like Breece hall is going to be that guy. Just to see what he's been doing these past two weeks, like if you had him in the fantasy playoffs this year, he's part of like he's caring. He, like these are his best two games fantasy wise back to back put together. But next year he could mix it up and get in there in that first round range where those top receivers start to go like Tyreek and Justin Jefferson.
- [21:07]
B
Yeah.
- [21:07]
A
I'm gonna make a prediction that I think McCaffrey will be the number one running back next season. But in terms of actual production, I would not write off Bijan Robinson at all because I think that this season has been, it's been a weird season for Atlanta and I think that they will figure their stuff out more. And Bijan showed against the Colts what he can do and he's going to be a monster at some point. I think there's a very good chance that's next season.
- [21:29]
B
Yeah. Let's jump into the Roto World Player News as you get ready for championship weekend. A lot of injuries to go through and we start with some good news, which is always nice during our Roto World Player News. CJ Stroud set to return after clearing concussion protocol. Stroud has missed the last two games. On top of that, his wide receiver, Nico Collins and his left tackle, Laramie Tunzel practiced in full on Thursday. Jay, this is an offense that when they have These three guys and it's, you know, you can't replace Tank Dell, but at least with these three guys, very viable passing attack.
- [22:00]
A
Absolutely. Against the Titans defense, that shouldn't provide too much resistance. Now this line has actually dropped from Texans -5 and a half down to Texans -4. That has nothing to do with the offense. Texans don't have any defensive linemen practicing at the moment. They're all in the old DMPs two days in a row basically. But on offense I think that backup producer Pete had a really good call that he texted me earlier. Nico Collins is set at 59 and a half yards on DraftKings. Like that's way too long. I'm sorry. The market just doesn't adjust properly when there is a guy missing and you say has to go elsewhere. We haven't seen that much Nico without Tank Dell with CJ Stroud. So I think Nico Collins should be a proper monster this week.
- [22:37]
C
Yeah, I definitely expect Nico Collins with C.J. stroud to go up from his four receptions in eight. He did score the touchdown, but four receptions, 18 yards. We fully expect him to up those numbers a lot. With CJ Stroud back on the center.
- [22:53]
B
Over for the Vikings, they named quarterback Jaren hall, the rookie out of BYU as the starter against the Packers. Meanwhile, his wide receiver Jordan Addison was limited in practice on Thursday. As we take a look at Matthews top 10 wide receiver ranks for week 17, obviously hall will be under center and you might ask yourself how that impacts Justin Jefferson, hall said. I think I've gotten better in every area since I first got here, but there's obviously a lot still to prove. Justin Jefferson for Matthews still comes in as wide receiver 3 only behind CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill. Lawrence is a good matchup against Green Bay, especially with Outshire Alexander. But how much does Jefferson become limited with the youngster under center?
- [23:35]
C
You know, I don't, I don't think much because when you really think about it, you know the Vikings since Kirk Cousins, you had Josh Dobbs, he was okay here and there. You had Nick Mullens who he's a little more like I'm a go getter with the football. But they backups, you know. And now you getting Jaren hall another backup. Remember this is the guy who originally was the backup for four Kirk Cousins this season. That's one two. He's the only one out of Nick Mullins himself and Josh Dobbs who hasn't been benched due to ineffectiveness. So small sample size, but he got off to a Very good start against Atlanta before he had that concussion. So not a lot of people will know him. So it'll be easier to be like, ah, you know, whatever, whatever. But this is a Rookie. You lost T.J. hawkinson, Jordan, Addison, bait up. Well, who else you gonna call on? It's gonna be Justin Jefferson. He's definitely the most mobile of all of these quarterbacks. Not the big arm, you know, but smart decision maker. We'll see what happens in the same game.
- [24:42]
B
The packers have their own issues at wide receiver. Christian Watson and Don Tavion Wicks not practicing on Thursday. Jaden Reed was limited to looking Wright for Reed and we move over to the full list of injuries we're tracking going into week 17 over the weekend. Josh Jacobs still not practicing on Thursday with that quad injury. If you've had Samir White, he's helped you out for sure. Zach Moss limited Michael Pittman coming out of concussion protocol. Full good sign on Pittman. Trevor Lawrence with the shoulder did not practice on Thursday. Zay Jones was limited in practice. Cole Comet dealing with the knee. Kyler Murray and Zeke Elliott both seeing a lot of illness during flu season. On the injury reports right now. Kyler Murray has missed the last couple days. Zeke, I'm sure he'll get ready to play in time, but obviously a little concerning on a Thursday status. JuJu Smith Schuster didn't practice with the ankle. Jay with Trevor Lawrence on that list, not practicing Thursday with a shoulder injury, one of many injuries he's had this year. Where does your trust go with Calvin Ridley and Travis Etienne whether Lawrence plays or not?
- [25:44]
A
Yeah, it's an interesting one because Doug Peterson said that Lawrence was going to get in a limited practice, then he didn't.
- [25:49]
B
Right. In practice he's open the show saying that.
- [25:51]
A
Yes. So that's a bad sign to start. The line has also dropped from Jags minus eight to Jags minus six against the Panthers. In terms of Calvin Ridley, I don't feel. I mean, the thing is this offense has been bad anyway with Lawrence banged up. So I think that Ridley will take a hit without Trevor Lawrence, but I don't think it's complete curtains for him if it is C.J. beathard at quarterback because Beathard, I mean he's not the most inspiring quarterback in the world, but he did play okay against the Bengals when he got in there. And also with Travis Etienne, I don't think this really hurts his value that much because the Panthers have a terrible run defense and I think that the Jags would lean on the run more than Ever lean on these Breeze hall type of Simeon dump off passes to ETN as well. So I don't think ETN moves around too much for us.
- [26:33]
C
Yeah, Travis ETN like you said, I think that, I think it hurts more for Calvin really because we we've seen long stretches with Ridley, even with Trevor Lawrence where it wasn't good. But when you get in these situations, just from a football perspective, you definitely want to lean on the run game. And Travis Etienne is he's the top five running back in fantasy this year. Just don't really seem like it but you know, he is. I, I do want to ask y' all this. You talked about that line going down from Jags minus 8 to now minus 6. The Panthers, they just took it to Green Bay, didn't pull out the win. But Bryce Young playing the best game of his young career being a touchdown underdog. Are these Panthers live for the upset?
- [27:21]
A
I think they are. But interested in your thoughts, Connor, on Bryce Young. Do you think that was just a product of the Green Bay defense which has been poor? Do you think he made tangible improvements?
- [27:28]
B
If you look at Joe Barry's lack of success against underachieving and just poor quarterbacks this year, there is a track record there. It's a long list. It's really insane.
- [27:38]
C
It's telling me DeVito got busy.
- [27:39]
B
Right. It feels like his defense is not. It hasn't stopped much of anyone. Packers fans, he's like public enemy number one. But I think to Bryce's credit, he played fast, confident and accurate. And maybe there's something going now without Frank Reich's staff there that they're trying some new wrinkles or maybe just a new confidence with him having a different voice in the room. I think he looked the closest to Alabama Bryce Young that we've seen in his NFL career and it makes you wonder if they actually build some skill players around him in an offensive line. He's going to be fine for all the overreactions we had do to deal with.
- [28:11]
A
Yep. And if it is CJ like I don't think the CJ Beth at JAG should be 6 point favorites over anyone to be honest. I think that line will drop if it is Lawrence that goes. But no, I think the Panthers, particularly with the way they're playing on defense at the moment and it wasn't amazing against the packers, but they have been improved, particularly in the secondary. I think they're live to win that game for sure.
- [28:29]
B
Let's get to the rest of the injuries. We're tracking Debo Samuel was limited on Thursday with a neck injury. Brian Robinson was limited coming off of this long hamstring injury. Ja' Marr Chase with the shoulder was limited. That's really interesting. With Chase, we didn't know if this could be an extended absence for him. So keep an eye on him today. Isaiah Pacheco, with a concussion and shoulder, did not practice. Kenny Pickett was back with the ankle injury he's dealt with for a couple weeks. Najee Harris, the knee was limited after missing practice the day before. Kenneth Walker, dealing with a shoulder injury and illness, didn't practice. DK Metcalf with a back injury, didn't practice. Courtland Sutton and concussion protocol, no practice for him. And Keenan Allen continues to deal with a heel injury that keeps him out of practice. Lawrence when you look at Sutton and concussion protocol, not practicing Thursday, what is this Broncos offense with Jarrett Stidham, not Russell Wilson under center?
- [29:16]
C
Yeah, when you throw a backup quarterback in there, you want to have it's ideal to have the top receiver in there. It's, you know, it's a nice matchup for the Broncos going against the charge defense, although the charge defense has played a little better lately outside of that Raiders game. So even with the even with Sutton, you know, possibly not playing like you want to have a practice this late in the week for your star receiver, but it's definitely going to be interesting to see Jared Stidimer, what Jerry Judy could possibly do, but he's Jerry Judy's had games without Sutton as well, and that hasn't amounted to much. We just talked about leaning on the run game in these situations. But Javante Williams and, you know, McLaughlin, they're really not. They're not those type of running. They're not on the level of an etn. So it'll be interesting. It will be tough because although the Chargers don't have that great of a defense, they have playmakers on that side of the ball and the offense as a whole has just been stagnant. It seems like they calling three plays. So I don't know if Sean Payne was doing that on purpose for Russell, but we'll see what it's like this week.
- [30:33]
A
Yeah, Stidham had some moments in his brief cameo last season. He moved the ball. But ultimately I think the only Broncos player you'd feel good about starting is Javante Williams, who.
- [30:42]
C
Yeah.
- [30:43]
A
And even then you don't feel amazing about it. But on DraftKings he set at 58 and a half rushing yards plus 120 anytime touchdown. So from that, I mean, that's 15 yards higher than Breece hall was set last night in terms of his rushing yards and maybe a 40% chance of a touchdown.
- [30:56]
B
Stidham's last couple games at the end of last year parlayed him into a nice backup quarterback contract. Yeah, he got a two year deal worth pretty good.
- [31:02]
A
Lit up the Niners.
- [31:03]
B
Yeah. One bit of news here while we've been on air. Jalen Waddle officially ruled out with that high ankle. I felt like the Dolphins are playing a little coy this week. We didn't think Waddle would play. He's been officially ruled out. We will get to the Dolphins much more for what's on tap, so stick with us. But before we get there, as he always does on Friday, Denny Carter joins us for the regression files. And as we always do, before we welcome Denny on, we take a look at what he's been up to this week. Always something special.
- [31:30]
D
I've been looking at the holes in my socks for a while in multiple pairs, right? And I'm talking about significant holes. Not, not just a little threadbare. I'm talking about holes, okay. And I'm thinking I need new socks. But I know Christmas is coming up. I'm looking at this, you know, in October, November. So I'm like, I'm not buying them. I'm not buying them. I know Santa will come through. Santa came through. He got me a lot, a lot of socks. I don't mean a normal amount. I mean a total retooling of the sock situation. Also, you know the underwear that I've been wearing for God knows how long, that's out the door. And we have slightly larger underwear for a 40 year old me. Wow, that's. That's fine. I appreciate it. Thank you, Santa. Shout out to Santa.
- [32:15]
B
Danny, are things okay?
- [32:18]
C
So you, you got holes in your underwear?
- [32:24]
D
No, no, no. Just they may have been too small is all I'm saying. And you turn 40, suddenly they're too small. I don't know what happened, guys. I don't know what we're looking into that.
- [32:39]
B
Terrifying.
- [32:42]
C
I ain't talking about Denny's holy socks no more.
- [32:44]
B
Yeah, it's really, and I say this in all seriousness, it's a good day for Matthew to be out celebrating his birthday.
- [32:51]
D
I really. Yeah, no, I agree. I didn't anticipate going on TV and talking about my underwear, but here we are. And that's okay.
- [32:57]
B
You never know what backup producer Pete's gonna cook up. He's very Gardner minshew Josh Dobbs in that backup way that he could go out there, throw three miraculous touchdowns, or he could go out there and you're like, oh, boy.
- [33:08]
A
Scoreless against the writers.
- [33:10]
B
Why is it 00 going into the fourth quarter? We don't know. All right, Denny, you always join us on Friday for the regression files. Players who are overproducing or under producing, of course, based on their workload, playing time and opportunity. If you want to read the full article, go to NBCSports.com let's start on a positive note to kick off this Friday, Denny.
- [33:28]
D
Yeah. Look, I've had Joe Mixon in the regression files in the positive section a few times this year, folks. He's back in there and it's because he's run pretty cold in the green zone inside the 10 yard line. I know Chase Brown has made some explosive plays, some splashy plays, very fast guy, electric guy. I'm going to draft him in every best ball team this offseason. You bet. You better bet that. But Joe Mixon is still the guy in the red zone. That's important. He's only scored on five of 16 carries inside the 10 and he has not scored on his past six carries inside the 10. I think that the Bengals are going to try to be run heavy this week. They tried to do that last week. That means they lean on Joe Mixon. I think that you can start him with, with some confidence this week that he'll get into the end zone.
- [34:21]
A
Yep, I agree with you there, Danny. In a matchup that perhaps isn't as frightening as it might have been with the Chiefs and their struggling run defense and also just missing a ton of players practice this week too. Denny, on the negative side, interested for your thoughts on George Pickens who went 4 for 195 against the Bengals. Do you think that his 48.8 yards per reception number is sustainable?
- [34:45]
C
Gotta be.
- [34:46]
D
You know, I don't. You know, we, we've looked into this, my. Me and my interns and we said no 48 yards of catch. This can't continue. Okay. So we, we've, we've taken a hard stance on that. Yeah, I mean, you knew this was coming because we don't like fun, we don't like big games here at regression files. George Picken did all his damage last week on only six targets, guys. Okay? So, you know, if you just take that into account, you know that this probably can't last. The problem with Pickens fantasy profile is that he doesn't get the layups and by that I mean he doesn't get those 6, 8, 10 yard receptions that can kind of smooth over an otherwise volatile performance. It's, he's a boomer bust wide receiver three. Last week he boomed. I don't think that that continues going forward. Mason Rudolph made a couple good throws and good for Mason Rudolph. You know, hey, he's now instantly better than Kenny Pickett, as is everybody else who starts for the Steelers. And so I, I but I just don't think that you can plug in Pickens as like a guaranteed wide receiver two or three.
- [35:44]
B
All right, Denny. Well, as we have some extra time here on this Friday, we usually just do the regression files, but how about the funnel defense report as well? Basically some defenses that could put a team into a pass happy script or a run happy script. We start with the Cardinals run defense. And one note on the Cardinals why we're taping Hollywood Brown has officially been put on IR. But what does the Cardinals run defense mean for DeAndre Swift going into championship weekend?
- [36:11]
D
Yeah, so like with the funnel defense report, I try to focus on teams that have been particularly exploited via the run game or the passing attack. The Cardinals, especially over the past month, just have been brutalized on the ground. We saw the Chicago Bears last week go for over 230 rushing yards on the strength of Cleo Herbert, a little bit of Roshan Johnson, a little bit of Justin, a lot of Justin Fields actually. And I think that we're going to see a similar approach from the Eagles this week as their, as their fans beg them to establish the run, to run it like it's 1967. You know, they're, I think they're going to oblige and I think that's great for DeAndre Swift. You know, DeAndre Swift is handling about 70% of the carries in that backfield over the past five weeks. I could see him getting 20 touches pretty easily here, barring some sort of weird game script. And you know what? I think that he's going to find the end zone. I think that force field around the end zone that has stopped him in, in throughout the season. Really. I think that force field is going to come down this week. He's going to get in.
- [37:14]
C
Yeah, Denny, I'm definitely with you there on DeAndre Swift. I actually got DeAndre Swift in my optimal flex plays article this week. But like you said, Arizona here is allowed 100 yards to running backs and six straight games. So I mean, if you, if you have a running back and it doesn't matter how you feel about them if they're playing against the the Arizona Cardinals, you let him go off. Arizona's allowed the first, fourth most rushing touchdowns, two running backs to this season. So DeAndre Swift, fall into that end zone. Young man, please.
- [37:51]
B
All right, moving over to a pass defense. How about New England? Denny, it feels like their run defense has gotten lost in the shuffle because of many reasons. One, Bailey Zappi taking over for Mac Jones, maybe the end of the Belichick era, and of course, all the losses New England has dealt with. But as we talk about on the show week after week for it feels like six to seven weeks now, their run defense has been so dominant, is that going to force Josh Allen and the Bills to go very, very pass happy in Joe Brady's offense against New England?
- [38:20]
D
I believe so. And I wrote it up in the article. All the boring, nerdy details, if you want to check that out. But basically it comes down to this, okay? The Bills have been operating basically like the Falcons or even more conservatively than the Falcons on offense over the past two weeks. We're talking about like a 33% drop back rate for Josh Allen, which is absurd. The last time these teams played, Josh Allen dropped back 47 times. He threw 41 passes. Twelve of those were to Stefan Diggs. Okay. And would Stepan Diggs managers like to see a dozen targets this week? I believe so. To get their guy out of a funk. I do. I do think that it's a quietly good spot for this Buffalo passing offense. And I don't think that they're going to be able to to just take the air out of the ball like they have over the past two games.
- [39:05]
B
You can catch Denny for his live fantasy football Q and A right after Happy hour at 1pm Eastern time on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel. Listen, Denny, it's New Year's weekend. Go enjoy those new socks and underwear, all right?
- [39:18]
D
Oh, I will.
- [39:19]
A
Thank you. Danny.
- [39:20]
D
You better bet it.
- [39:21]
C
Take care of the socks.
- [39:22]
B
See you, Denny.
- [39:23]
D
See ya.
- [39:24]
B
All right, guys, we will take our first break here and when we're back, we're looking at the games with the highest point totals and what's on tap at the Bud Light bar right after this. Interested in betting the games this weekend and want a little more insight? Jay and Drew Dynzik have you covered with Bet the Edge with new episodes dropping every weekday at 6:00am Eastern. Jay, what did you guys cover in today's episode?
- [39:51]
A
Talked a lot of talked MVP market, which I think is really fascinating at the moment and why I Think Josh Allen is a viable bet. And then we covered some games including Raiders, Colts, Chiefs, Bengals and Sunday Night Football. Packers, Vikings and what the plays might be in those games. Connor?
- [40:08]
B
Alright, every weekday 6am if you got to get up and commute somewhere, fire.
- [40:12]
C
Up at the edge.
- [40:13]
B
Let's jump into what's on tap, of course, Brought to you by Bud Light, the official beer sponsor of the NFL. Nothing is as easy to enjoy as a Sunday full of football and a fridge full of beer. Here's the games we're keying in on with the highest point totals of the weekend. And we start with Lions at Cowboys. The Cowboys favored now by five and a half the over under for this game. Lawrence set at 52. And largely that's because the Cowboys are averaging 40 points per game at home this season. That's the best in the NFL. But on the Lions side, does this game environment make Jared Goff an appealing play this week? Of course. Indoors?
- [40:51]
C
Yeah, definitely. And you look at that game total of 52 there, by far the largest of week 17. Here you've got Jared Goff in that dome. That's what's key here. He averages 19.4 fantasy points per game indoors, 260 yards at least in three of his past five games. And this is a big game for both of these teams. Right. So I expect it to be a back and forth, a shootout, you know, passes galore, both quarterbacks go for 275. I say at the very least. So yeah, I believe Jared Goff, he will, he will make do in this game versus the Cowboys.
- [41:28]
A
Yeah, we think about the Cowboys defense as this really imposing unit, but just hasn't been for the past month or so. They've really struggled. I think the absence of Trayvon Diggs is starting to show itself more now. I think the Cowboys will struggle more against the run and that's how you've been able to exploit the Cowboys defense recently. And there's perhaps no better team in the NFL to do that than the Lions. But I think with Goff, if they're able to protect against Micah Parsons, then you can throw on this defense. And I think that the Lions might have the best offensive line of football outside of the Eagles. So I think that they will keep Goff safe and this is going to be a shootout.
- [42:01]
B
Jay, what do you think of this line dropping a little bit? It's dropped about a point or half a point. But the Cowboys dominance at home. Lions are a great team. There's no denying that they could be the one seed but the Cowboys dominance at home is why it launched so heavy towards them.
- [42:12]
A
Yeah, it's an interesting one, I think. Four and a half, five. That's about right. Just because of the struggles that the Cowboys have had on defense. And we talked about this the other day, but like, they really missed Jonathan Hankins and that's a problem. If you're missing Jonathan Hankins this much, that's a problem for your defense. And I think that the Cowboys, they will be able to score at will on the Lions, but I think the Lions, this is a good matchup for them just because of how effectively they can run the ball.
- [42:35]
B
Our next highest total is the 49ers traveling to play the Commanders. The Niners are 12 1/2 point favorites in this one. The over under set at 50. Another big point total here, Lawrence. And a new quarterback will be under center for Washington in Jacoby Brissette. Which, more importantly, fantasy wise, does that change things for Terry McLaurin?
- [42:55]
C
I think it does and I think it changes it for the better. We've seen what Terry McLaurin has been able to do the past two weeks when Jacoby Brissette is entered. It's been scary hours the whole season for Terry McLaurin, but them being 12 and a half point underdogs, they should have to throw. We saw the 49ers stump out the Eagles, but yet AJ Brown, Devontae Smith, Jalen Hurts, all had nice fantasy days because they had to come from behind. So you know McLaurin with Jacoby Brissette this season is five targets, four receptions, 122 yards, and in the TD, almost two TDs. He got stopped right at the goal line before one. But I expect Jacoby Brissette to play his type of football. He plays that YOLO football, he gonna get that ball and push it down the field. So I think it'll be better for him, per se. A guy like Curtis Samuel, it'll maybe lessen in his favor. But for their top guy, scary Terry, it's gonna be up for him.
- [43:57]
B
Jay. The 49ers coming off an embarrassing loss, there's no way around it. Is this kind of one of those response games where you could see them just running it up 40 and above?
- [44:05]
A
Absolutely. This is the type of game where Christian McCaffrey has 150 yards and three touchdowns and just goes absolutely off. But I do think that this is, this is a defense in San Francisco that just hasn't really touched the heights of when they came out of their buy and they just absolutely destroyed Jacksonville and then Tampa Bay and teams of this ilk and they really shut down the Eagles even though there was garbage time at the end. But I mean thing with Baltimore is that their passing offense hasn't been great this year and Lamar Jackson did whatever he wanted in that second half. So I think it's a problem that Arik Armstead has been out. They've been a different defense without him. He's still not practicing. So I do think this 49ers team is vulnerable. That's why the total is so high. Because look, it's not going to be like a blow for blow shootout, I don't think. But I do think the commanders will be able to move the ball.
- [44:49]
C
You could protect against them. You got a shot definitely to get something done through the air.
- [44:54]
B
Another game with a high total. The Dolphins at Baltimore. Of course, the Ravens, favored by 3 1/2 points in this one, expect to be one of the better games of the week. The point total is at 47 here. And Jay, I think the question is, with Jalen Waddle ruled out, who steps up for Miami?
- [45:10]
A
Yeah, well, I mean the easy answer is Tyree Kill, who Matthew has ranked as wide receiver too. I think that is justified. Think back to the early season matchup between these two teams last year where Tyreek Hill did whatever he wanted against the Ravens secondary. Now this is a much improved Ravens defense. I don't think Tyreek is going to have that type of freedom, but you would expect that he gets absolutely peppered with targets. But honestly, the two guys who I think benefit the most are Raheem Mosted and Devon Hn. Because this Ravens defense, and we've spoken about this, but they look like an amazing run defense because they don't give that many rushing yards. But they don't give up many rushing yards because teams are never in game scripts where they can run the ball because they're always losing by a lot because the Ravens are so good. But in terms of an efficiency basis, you can run the ball on Baltimore. I think that's how Miami will want to play this game. That's why I kind of like the under in this one too.
- [45:55]
C
Also, too. I like the under as well. Also too with that Ravens defense I mentioned earlier how they lead the league in sacks, that too will, you know, keep a team from running the ball when you're in third and long all the time. Also, if you're in, you know, if you're in dire straits, you're in need. Cedric Wilson will probably be the Next receiver to step up. The last two games he's played in 77 and 62% of the snaps. So as far as receivers goes, like, that'll be the next guy. But yeah, I mean, that's like if you're like truly struggling. But I think it's going to be tough for this Miami offense because like you say last year, and that was early last year, they played them much different in the front seven for the Ravens this year.
- [46:42]
A
Yep. No Roquan Smith.
- [46:44]
C
No Roquan Smith. And that was Kyle Hamilton's second game.
- [46:47]
A
Yeah. He's a different player now. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah. By the way, Cedric Wilson, who Matthew dropped Jerome Ford for. So expecting.
- [46:54]
C
So he better go off.
- [46:55]
A
Minimum 118 yards, two catches, 12 yards. Yeah.
- [46:58]
B
Yeah. That's going to be very interesting. All right, that'll do it for what's on tap. Presented by Bud Light. Easy to Sunday, easy to enjoy. We are taking one more break, but when we're back, Lawrence and Jay have pickup lines for me. Their best bets going into the weekend right after this. Don't forget on DraftKings sportsbook this season, new customers can bet $5 and pocket $150 in bonus bets instantly. Plus, all customers can get a no sweat same game parlay every day. Download the app and use the promo code. Barrywhenyou sign up. DraftKings sportsbook, the Crown is yours. It is time for last call here, fellas. Let's get into some pickup lines where finally I just get to put my feet up and not have to come up with any. Jay, what do you got for me?
- [47:49]
A
Yep, your hair looks fantastic. Thank you. Good start.
- [47:53]
C
Sticky slick there.
- [47:54]
B
Somebody with hair getting pickup lines for once.
- [47:56]
A
Yeah. Wow. Very good. On his birthday.
- [47:59]
B
Happy hundred birthday.
- [48:00]
A
My pickup line is the same one I used last week or so. The Thursday night pick last week, Chris Olave to go for 120 +receiving yards is +600. This just is not. It's not right. It's not correct because Olave here is what he has done in his last four healthy games. 94 yards, 114, 119, 123. I just don't think that the market is accounting for one. Just the. The pass funnel that the Tampa Bay defense is where they just cannot stop anyone through the air all season. Their run defense is excellent. There's no Shaq Barrett, there's no Carlton Davis at practice this week. I think they're really going to struggle to contain Derek Carr through the air. And I just think that with Olave in Particular, his player type is just conducive to just these alternate big alternates because of how many deep receptions that he gets. It's the same with Rashid Shahid, where he is another guy who can just go 50 yards over his prop line. You compare that to a guy like Chris Godwin, for instance. Like Chris Godwin just doesn't have as much variance. He doesn't give as many deep targets. So I don't think the market is pricing in Olave's variance enough. I don't think the market is accounting for the amount of targets that he'll get against his pass funnel defense. And I think olava goes for 120 plus at plus 600.
- [49:08]
C
Okay, Lawrence, those are some gaudy numbers Chris Olave has had recently. And Jay already talked about your hair, so I won't steer that one. But, hey, nice shirt, Connor. Nice little watch you got.
- [49:19]
B
Thank you. I like this.
- [49:22]
A
Hey.
- [49:23]
C
Yeah. So there you go. Rasheed Rice, Come to the altar, please. Help me out here. I'm gonna go online for Rasheed Rice. Rice, my man, Rasheed Rice for the. The struggling Chiefs offense. You know, I'm Gonna go outline 100 yards at plus 330 right now. He hasn't had 100 yards in his last five games. However, he's averaged 10 targets in those five games. Like there's nobody else as bad as the Kansas City offense played last week. Rasheed Rice still had his 12 targets. Cincinnati here. Bottom five, pass defense. We talked about George Pickens earlier. Look what he did to the Bengals last week. Four for 195, five, two touchdowns. The week before that, Justin Jefferson, seven for 84. Jordan Addison, six four one, 11 and two touchdowns. So the. The Bengals, The Bengals defense, they just getting lit up, my man. Even go back a week, Pittman had himself 95 yards. So, Connor, I beg of you here today. Take these 100. Rasheed. Rasheed rice receiving. Y' all about to say receiving. Yards.
- [50:34]
D
Receiving.
- [50:35]
C
Rice yards.
- [50:36]
A
Good.
- [50:36]
C
There we go. Right at plus 330. That's my take.
- [50:40]
B
These are awesome. Really fun receiving. Props to ladder bet all the way you showed from about 63 for each of them, all the way to the hundred. 120 for UJ I. Listen, history is on Olave's side. You've hit big on this. I think you've hit our biggest show bet we've ever had with Olave's all. Or at least one of the biggest we've ever had. It all comes down to this for me. Do I put my faith in Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs offense looks broken right now.
- [51:05]
A
Yes.
- [51:06]
B
Or my faith in Derek Carr, who I quite frankly wouldn't trust to walk my dog if I asked him to.
- [51:11]
A
Arguably, he's had the better career than Mahomes when you factor in Super Bowl.
- [51:17]
B
I'm gonna go with Rasheed Rice. He's due for the hundred yard game. Although Jay, I like the better odds there. Lawrence, you in this one for pickup lines. Keep an eye on both of these this week if you want to have some fun. These are huge odds. Place a bet on each of these. That's it for us, for Lawrence. For Jay, a happy birthday to Matthew. I'm Connor. Watch fantasy football pregame on Sunday at 11am Eastern with these guys. Good luck in your fantasy championships.