Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry

Episode: Overall Top 50 + Early Round Draft Strategy
Date: August 19, 2025
Host: Matthew Berry (NBC Sports), with Connor Rogers and Jay Croucher

Episode Overview

This episode dives into Matthew Berry’s overall top 50 fantasy football rankings for 2025 and analyzes early-round draft strategies for both traditional and SuperFlex (2QB) formats. The trio debates wide receiver vs. running back value in different draft slots, touches on preseason player risers, and gives actionable tips for maximizing value in every league setup. For those prepping for fantasy drafts, this episode is a comprehensive breakdown of optimal approaches, player tiers, and actionable advice for nuanced league formats.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Preseason Standouts & Notable Performances

[03:02–08:37]

• Mitchell Tinsley (WR, Bengals)

  • Broke out with 6 targets, 5 catches, 73 yards, and 2 touchdowns in Monday night’s preseason game.
  • "Joe Burrow talking him up significantly, just how good a camp he’s had." (Berry, 03:48)
  • Deep-league flyer or dynasty stash, but buried behind Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins.

• Brian Robinson (RB, Commanders) Situation

  • Reports suggest Robinson is likely on the move (trade/release), and new faces are emerging.
  • "We've talked about it...if you watch our draft coverage, you heard Connor Rodgers talk about Jaquori Kroski-Merritt...a little bit of a controversial call but right now it’s looking good, Connor." (Berry, 06:21)

• Commanders Backfield Outlook

  • Likely a committee: Chris Rodriguez ("veteran"), Jacory Kroski-Merritt (rookie riser), and Austin Ekeler.
  • "Don’t forget about Chris Rodriguez...He’s going to be a factor as well." (Berry, 08:00)

2. Draft Strategy by Draft Slot: Early, Middle, Late

[08:37–19:54]

• Top 4 Picks: Flexibility, But Prefer WR Start

  • "I kind of like going wide receiver in the first two rounds...The better values at the end of round two are sort of the running backs." (Berry, 09:12)
  • Emphasizes roster construction over strict positional runs: “Go get your guys—you're not losing your league because you have Jameer Gibbs." (Berry, 10:19)

• Zero RB Viable?

  • "It always is...Zero RB just means you have to hit on those late round...running back picks." (Berry, 10:59)
  • Points to weekly RB volatility and opportunity for mid-late round value (e.g., Zach Charbonnet as injury fill-in).

• Preferred Draft Range: Middle to Late First

  • Jay Croucher: "I found Connor, that feel very good about Jamar Chase and Bijan Robinson as the top two. After that, three through ten, I just don’t think there's that much gap..." (12:22)
  • Berry prefers pick 7-8: “I don’t think there’s a huge difference between the guy I have ranked fifth and the guy I have ranked ninth.” (Berry, 12:58)

3. Tight End & Quarterback Drafting Philosophy

[19:54–22:58]

• Second Round TE:

  • Berry: "I much prefer McBride or Kittle than Bowers...if Bowers winds up as the number one tight end...I don’t think he’s significantly ahead of either of those guys." (Berry, 20:17)
  • If you spend up at TE, don’t also take a top-tier QB early—avoid being thin at RB/WR.

• Depth at Tight End

  • "Jake Ferguson’s going TE16, that’s better than the usual TE16...Tyler Warren is outside the top 10." (Jay, 22:19)
  • More late-round upside than usual at TE in 2025.

4. Wide Receiver and Running Back Analysis: Early vs. Middle Rounds

[14:12–19:27; 28:23–29:28]

• Elite WRs Have Higher Floor

  • "More weirdness happens with running backs...We just talked about Jakori Kroski-Merritt and Chris Rodriguez who are shooting up draft boards as well." (Berry/Jay, 15:39)
  • WRs like Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra are "cannot fail without injury" types.

• RB Drop-Off Noted in Late 2nd/Early 3rd

  • "This is not a great zone for running backs in my opinion." (Berry, 27:28)
  • If you wait too long, you're sifting through riskier committee backs or injury-prone options.

5. SuperFlex / Two-QB League Strategy

[36:43–45:46]

• SuperFlex Definitions & Preferences

  • SuperFlex: Allows (not requires) you to start a QB at a flex spot.
  • "It is my favorite way to play...I'm the two-time defending champion of it. No big deal." (Berry, 38:20)

• QB Tiers (Summarized from Segments 39:56–42:30):

  • Tier 1: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Jaden Daniels. (Must have at least one early, ideally in first round.)
  • Tier 2: Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, Bo Nix, Justin Fields, Kyler Murray. (OK for QB1, especially if T1 is gone.)
  • Tier 3: Purdy, Prescott, Goff, Caleb Williams, Drake May, T. Lawrence, Herbert, C.J. Stroud, Love, McCarthy. (Good QB2 options.)
  • Tier 4: Pennix, Bryce Young, Geno Smith, Tua, Cam Ward, Stafford, Darnold, Rodgers, Daniel Jones. (Use as upside bets or QB3.)

• Strategy Notes:

  • "You want a quarterback, especially if it's one of those top two tiers, at least in the first two rounds in a super flex, assuming other guys are being drafted." (Berry, 41:31)
  • Don’t chase deeply after your third QB; let the draft flow.
  • Be mindful of how your league values the position: "Drafting is often dictated by ADP that is in the draft room...so figuring out where your league once you put your settings in, figuring out oh, here's where these quarterbacks are going..." (Berry, 50:19)

6. Key Player Tiers & "No Man’s Land" Picks

[24:28–31:58]

• Tyreek Hill — Boom-or-Bust

  • "He’s going to be like 11th or he’s going to be 70th. Wide range of outcomes, don’t know what to do." (Jay/Berry, 25:07)
  • Consider as a high-variance swing in round three.

• Mid-Round High-Floor Veterans

  • "I love all these values. Camara I think is going to be another PPR merchant. DJ Moore...snoozy but...one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, bar none." (Berry, 29:28)
  • Courtland Sutton noted as a touchdown, 50/50-ball threat: “There’s like three times a year where Cortland Sutton has the catch of the week.” (31:20, Berry)

• High Ceiling/Low Floor Backfield Pairs

  • On Seattle: “Walker and Charbonnet...are that brilliant backfield to pair. You always know which week to start them." (Berry, 32:31)
  • Kamara safer, Walker higher ceiling: “Ken Walker’s got the highest ceiling...he’s also got a much bigger chance to be...outside the top 25.” (Jay, 33:27)

7. Breaking NFL News: Colts QB Change, Cleveland Situation

[45:46–49:10]

• Colts Name Daniel Jones Week 1 Starter over Anthony Richardson

  • "He’s not going to have a short leash. They plan on him being the starter for the season...feels like the end of Anthony Richardson with the Colts." (Connor, 45:46)
  • Berry: “Semi interesting. This is a guy who uses his legs, averages over 30 rushing yards a game for his career...I think the big winners here are Josh Downs and Tyler Warren." (46:12–47:23)
  • Jonathan Taylor’s floor rises, but upside drops with Jones, not Richardson, at QB.

• Joe Flacco Starting for Browns

  • "Club set is open again. He is the closest thing to like, you know, peak Brett Favre, right…just that gunslinger, 'eff it, somebody's down there' mentality." (Berry, 49:12)
  • Raises the value of Browns receivers, especially David Njoku and Jerry Jeudy, as long as he holds the job.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Managing Draft Flexibility:

  • "I tend not to go into a draft saying I’m definitely doing running back here or wide receiver here. It sort of depends on how the draft comes to me." (Berry, 10:37)

• On Early RB Run Pressure:

  • "You’re not losing your league because you have Jameer Gibbs on your roster. I promise you. It’s just all about roster construction." (Berry, 10:34)

• On the Tyreek Hill Dilemma:

  • "Tyreek Hill is not going to end up the 33rd player in fantasy...He’s going to be like 11th or 70th." (Jay, 24:59)

• On the Importance of League Context in SuperFlex:

  • "Drafting is often dictated by ADP that is in the draft room." (Berry, 50:19)

• On Colts QB Change:

  • "This just kind of feels like the end of Anthony Richardson with the Colts...the big winners are Josh Downs and Tyler Warren." (Berry, 46:12–47:23)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [03:02] — Preseason standouts: Mitchell Tinsley & Bengals, Commanders RB dance
• [09:12] — Early picks strategy; preference for WR, flexibility
• [10:59] — Is Zero RB viable? Discussion and success strategies
• [14:12] — Wide receiver vs. running back value in rounds 2 and 3
• [19:54] — Bowers/McBride/Kittle debate and overall tight end strategy
• [24:28] — Tyreek Hill’s draft dilemma & mid-round value picks
• [28:23] — RB drop-off zone; why you need clarity before round 3
• [31:02] — Sutton, DJ Moore, Kamara as mid-round floors
• [36:43] — SuperFlex and 2QB league setup/tips
• [39:56] — QB Tiers for SuperFlex, how to approach the position
• [45:46] — Colts announce Daniel Jones as starter; impact on skill positions
• [49:12] — Joe Flacco starting for Browns; fantasy impact
• [50:19] — How to use ADP and Fantasy Life tool in your draft

Flow, Tone, and Final Thoughts

This episode was packed with up-to-the-minute advice, candid draft room humor, and actionable takeaways. Berry, Connor, and Jay blend serious football analytics with self-deprecating wit, rapid-fire banter, and offbeat metaphors (“the original Chubbler,” “wide receiver handcuff”). The overall message is clear: go into your draft with a flexible plan, know your league context, and don’t be afraid to swing for upside—but understand where the positional cliffs are, especially at running back in 2025.

"Every day we live is a risk."
—Matthew Berry, on drafting Christian McCaffrey at pick 7

Useful For...

• Listeners prepping for 2025 fantasy drafts
• Managers in traditional, SuperFlex, or deep roster leagues
• Anyone seeking actionable, expert-level advice delivered with humor
• Those wondering where RB/WR values drop off and how to navigate “dead zones” in drafts

Next up: The show will dive into “regular season receiving touchdowns odds” and last-call bets—plus more SuperFlex tips—tomorrow at noon EST.