← Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry
Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry
Preseason Love/Hate: Ashton Jeanty, Nico Collins, Bo Nix + More
00:52:01
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- [00:01]
Matthew Berry
Class is now in session and the.
- [00:04]
Lawrence
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- [00:05]
Matthew Berry
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- [00:21]
Jay Croucher
Restrictions and limitations apply.
- [00:23]
Matthew Berry
To get a 20% off packing coupon and for full details, visit theupsstore.com packing.
- [00:30]
Lawrence
You've got the football jersey, you've got the passion. But you're chasing it with, well, whatever tequila some celeb was pushing. Come on, don't be a gringo. Grand Centenario Tequila has been crafted for centuries in the highlands of Jalisco, Mexico.
- [00:43]
Matthew Berry
That means real heritage, real expertise, real tequila.
- [00:46]
Lawrence
No gringo stuff.
- [00:47]
Matthew Berry
Just a product of centuries of expertise.
- [00:49]
Lawrence
Mexico's number one. So next time you raise a glass, make it Gran Centenario. The tequila Mexico drinks. Don't be a gringo drink. Gran Centenario.
- [00:57]
Matthew Berry
Gran Centenario tequila. 40% alcohol by volume. Proximoproximospirits.com.
- [01:02]
Lawrence
I don't really pay attention to all the social media and stuff.
- [01:05]
Matthew Berry
You know, the biggest thing I know.
- [01:09]
Jay Croucher
People, people praise me now because I have this success.
- [01:12]
Lawrence
But you know, I feel like it doesn't come from true love. You know, at the same time they just see me as a football player. And so when things go crashing down, you know, I know that love turns into hate.
- [01:24]
Matthew Berry
Fantasy Football Happy hour with Matthew Berry.
- [01:29]
Jay Croucher
Welcome to the Fantasy football happy hour. Love Love. Turning to hate. Very on brands. This is Love Hate day.
- [01:35]
Matthew Berry
I'm Jay Croucher.
- [01:36]
Jay Croucher
Here's Matthew Barry, Florence Jackson. Another Mets loss to a non playoff team last night. So Connor Rogers is not with us. He will be back tomorrow if he can.
- [01:43]
Matthew Berry
He's much more on the hate list than the love list these days. Poor Connor. He's kissing his biceps and you know, hoping for. Hoping for goodness here. But yes, Trayvon Henderson, wise beyond his years. Love does turn to hate. Hate turns to love. It is officially Love hate day. The preseason Love hate has been turned down. It is going through the editing process. I know what people think. Really? It gets edited. Oh, you have no idea. You have no idea. And that is one of the reasons why, by the way, Chris Wilson. Chris Wilson drinks for free. I know what America is saying. Who the hell is Chris Wilson? I will tell you. Garrett's Wilson. He is my editor here at NBCSports.com@rotoworld.com and that poor bastard has to edit 10,000 words. That's how Long the preseason Love Hate is. It's a really good opening story. Lots of great names for you as well. Some of them we're going to get to today. But shout out to Chris Wilson whenever he manages to hack through whatever it is I sent him. He drinks free at the happy hour bar today.
- [02:45]
Jay Croucher
Okay, let's jump straight into it. Let's start off with Love Height running backs.
- [02:49]
Matthew Berry
Yes, sir.
- [02:50]
Jay Croucher
And we're going to start with Ashton Genty. And we heard from Genty on how Chip Kelly has helped him in the passing game.
- [02:58]
Matthew Berry
How much pride do you take in also being able to be a pass catcher out of the backfield and how much do you believe that Chip Kelly.
- [03:04]
Lawrence
Has been able to put you in.
- [03:05]
Matthew Berry
Advantageous positions to do that?
- [03:07]
Lawrence
Yeah, I take a lot of pride in it. You know, it's something that wasn't really shown as much in my college career. So being able to have that opportunity. And you know, Chip's done a great job at, you know, getting the running backs involved in the passing game and we just got to continue to work at it and get better every single day.
- [03:28]
Matthew Berry
So sometimes there are questions about rookie running backs, a rookie running back, specifically on the Raiders, somebody who's going inside the top 10 and I'm just saying like, oh no, no, no, he's the real deal. I'm at eight overall. I'm his number five running back. I think he is a rock solid first round pick. He makes the love list. Look, you heard Ashton Genty just say how Chip Kelly is getting the ball in into his hands in the passing game. But he also does that just as a running back. Right. Chip Kelly's offenses, three of his four years as an NFL head coach have all been top seven in terms of rush attempts. So three of the four sevens. You see it right there as well. Chip Kelly has always featured the running back, always plays at a fast pace of play. I think this offense, which was confident last year, is going to be a lot better under Chip Kelly. They'll play at a faster pace. They have Jacoby Myers and Brock Bowers. Geno Smith is a big upgrade at quarterback. They suddenly have some pieces to this off. I think they'll be in scoring position more often. And you can't forget the draft capital Lawrence Jackson. Since 2012, there have been seven running backs drafted inside the top 10. Five of them have averaged at least 19 touches a game and all five of those finished as top seven running backs in fantasy points per game. Saquon Barkley, Leonard Fournette, Ezekiel Elliott, Tyde Gurley and of course Trent Richardson. I would argue that with the exception of maybe Saquon Barkley, Ashton Gente is a better prospect than any of those guys coming in. I think he's just going to get a massive workload. I'm not worried about Zemir White or Raheem Mostert. I am not. You sure? Yes, exactly.
- [05:00]
Lawrence
Well, guess what, Matthew? I agree.
- [05:02]
Matthew Berry
Yes.
- [05:04]
Lawrence
You love it. I love it as much. When it comes to Ash and Genty, Shout out to him too. He came on this very show during super bowl week, so shout out to Ash and Genty. Let me hype him up a little bit because I don't think he gave himself enough credit though, in the passing. He said they didn't use him like that in college. They didn't in his last year. But as a sophomore, he caught 43 passes for over 500 receiving yards and five touchdowns. So that proves that he could do it. He. He did it his. His second preseason game. They threw him a quick little, quick little route out the backfield. He tried to truck the dude and that's when we got the little injury scare. So we don't want to see you do that, Ashton. Jinty, like just slowly get in there. But they got him a touchdown and once they saw, once he got that touchdown, you saw the whole team come around, rattle around him. So he's ready to go. This is going to be the guy that's going to touch the ball on this offense more for hopefully the next 10 years. So all in on Ash and Jensen.
- [06:03]
Matthew Berry
And by the way, I know people like, oh well, Barry, Ash and Genti is an obvious name. I get it. But I'm just saying, for of all the first round guys, this is the guy that I'm saying, at least among the running backs that I'm planting my flag saying this is. He's. He's a love list. The love list or hateless is all about people that are going a little bit too low or a little bit too high. I very much think he is. He is right there among all the elite running backs, despite the fact he has yet to play it down in the NFL.
- [06:27]
Jay Croucher
Question from. I know Juice. Yes, you do know Juice. Am I crazy to think Genti finishes as RB1?
- [06:33]
Matthew Berry
You're not at all. That's very much within the range of outcomes. And that's one of the reasons why, again, he's on the love list. And so you're not crazy at all. My question though is, do you think Juice is a person? Like, I know Juice Is like, oh, yeah, yeah. You know the guy. You know the guy down on 6th Street? Juice. I know him.
- [06:51]
Jay Croucher
Yeah.
- [06:51]
Matthew Berry
Or do you think it's just he's somebody. He's an expert about a liquid, about, you know, kind of the liquid that is known as Juice. Like, he just knows it. Like, oh, man, am I should. What. What am I feeling today? Cranberry or orange? And this guy's like, oh, no, no. Today is a cranberry day.
- [07:07]
Lawrence
You know, it's definitely not the.
- [07:08]
Matthew Berry
Jay, you've got to go with Apple.
- [07:10]
Lawrence
It's three o'. Clock.
- [07:11]
Matthew Berry
You've got to go with Apple.
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Jay Croucher
Juice has just so many.
- [07:13]
Lawrence
Yeah, he's not actually Juice. He know Juice.
- [07:17]
Matthew Berry
Well, that's what I'm saying.
- [07:18]
Lawrence
So it's the first thing you say. It's his partner down the block. Yeah. It's his homie down the block.
- [07:23]
Matthew Berry
He's saying Juice is a guy that just. Juice is a person that no one sort of knows. He's got a shadowy figure, but he knows this guy. He knows him. He knows him.
- [07:31]
Jay Croucher
Traveling avatar from. I know Juice. Very happy about who he knows. Ashton Genty, Big name Lawrence. Not as quite as big of a name as Chase Brown, though.
- [07:40]
Matthew Berry
Lawrence is your. Is your avatar on YouTube. I know Matthew, because that'd be nice.
- [07:44]
Lawrence
Yes, I know Jay.
- [07:45]
Jay Croucher
Yes.
- [07:46]
Matthew Berry
There you go.
- [07:47]
Jay Croucher
Is that the cousin of Juice? By the way, Juicy J. Shout out to Juicy J. By the way, Matthew. No comment on me keeping my beard.
- [07:58]
Matthew Berry
Evil J. Evil J is back.
- [08:00]
Jay Croucher
I recently got a new nickname. Lawrence. It's James Harden. They call me the Beard.
- [08:09]
Lawrence
They don't call you. They should call you the scruff.
- [08:11]
Jay Croucher
Yeah. 35 and 10. Yeah.
- [08:13]
Matthew Berry
All right.
- [08:14]
Jay Croucher
Another guy who puts up a lot of numbers. Lawrence. Chase Brown. After he took over as the starter in week nine, Chase Brown, RB4 in points per game. He's not the flashiest guy. He's the fourth most famous person on the offense. But he's on the love list because he's going to get a huge amount of usage and there's no real competition.
- [08:32]
Lawrence
Yeah. And I think once he took over after week nine last year, we kept questioning because he's a smaller back in stature, we would say, well, how long is this going to last? Who are they going to put? Thayer, Woodham. And even leading up to the NFL draft, we were saying, oh, the Bengals might take a running back rounds two or three some. Well, they did not. They waited till day three to take another running back in. They showed you. Because the Bengals offense got a first team Offense got a lot of work this preseason and Chase Brown along with Ja', Marr, Chase and Joe Burrow was very active in that time. So Chase Brown is locked and loaded, ready to go as this team's RB1. Teams are going to have to focus on Ja', Marr, Chase T. Higgins. That's going to open it up for Chase Brown.
- [09:14]
Matthew Berry
Matthew, why does he make the love list? Is a guy who's going as an RB2. He's going outside the top 10 at the position. I have an RB7. I think he's an RB1. I just think because people have this perception that he's a smaller back because he hasn't done it for a full season. There's concern there. I have no concerns. Again, you know why I have no concerns? Because the Bengals have no concerns. They've seen it, right? He just 85%. 85% of the touches, 85% snap rate, 13% target share from week nine on last year, just a massive workload as well. They released Zach Moss. It's Samaj P. Ryan, who's more of a third down specialist, a little bit of a blocker. They've got Taj Brooks, the rookie. But we always say fantasy success comes from two things, talent and opportunity. We saw the talent on display from Chase Brown last year, and it's clear he's going to have the opportunity on one of the best offenses in the NFL given how bad that defense is going to be, they're going to. Joe Burrow is going to have to throw 5,000 times this year, and Chase Brown is going to be a big part of both the passing game and the rushing attack as well. So by the way, 5,000 times. A bit of an exaggeration, but maybe five, 5,000 yards. 5,000 yards for sure. But anyway, you guys get what I mean? I was up all night writing Love Hate. Yeah, well, I don't know Juice. I don't know Juice. I was there in my room by myself.
- [10:27]
Jay Croucher
Juiceless.
- [10:28]
Matthew Berry
Juiceless.
- [10:29]
Jay Croucher
Yes. The anti Juicer.
- [10:30]
Matthew Berry
I feel like Juice is one of those guys. I feel like Juice is like just one of those guys that like, whatever you need done, like, you just Juice. And he takes care of it.
- [10:39]
Jay Croucher
Like the Wolf in public.
- [10:40]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, a little bit. Like he's a fixer. Yeah, Juice is a fixer.
- [10:44]
Lawrence
I mean, he literally just said he know O.J. simpson.
- [10:46]
Matthew Berry
Right? Maybe that's what it is. All right.
- [10:49]
Jay Croucher
All right, let's go to Bucky Irving.
- [10:51]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, sure.
- [10:52]
Jay Croucher
Plenty of Juice himself. He led all running backs in yards after contact per attempt last year, fourth in a tackle. Avoidance.
- [10:58]
Matthew Berry
Right.
- [10:58]
Jay Croucher
He was one of the underlying stats darlings of the season, Matthew and start to really get some run in the second half of the year.
- [11:05]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, a lot of similarities by the way to Chase Brown, somebody who came into the NFL that there were questions about whether this guy could be an every down back and you know, from, from the, you know, second half of the year he just sort of showed that he could. That mean they gave him all the work that he could handle as well. From week six on the fifth most scrimmage yards among all running backs as well. In each of his final six healthy games he averaged 17 or more touches. He had at least 17 touches in all six of his final games. So again he can handle a big workload. Rashad White's already banged up. Love Sean Tucker as a late insurance back but all the conversations I've had in and around the Tampa Bay Buccaneers organization is that they believe this guy is a true workhorse running back that can handle the full load. Not worried about the injury to Tristan Wurfs. It's not great but they'll get him out of the backfield. And it's a similar story as we've seen with the Bengals and Chase Brown the lead running back on one of the elite offenses in the NFL. And I don't think the Buccaneers. Jay get the credit NFL wise for having as elite an offense as maybe the Bengals because the Bengals have such big star power in Jamar Chase and T. Higgins and Joe Burrow. And while the Buccaneers obviously have some names in Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans, it just feels like, I don't know, maybe it's because they're NFC south or that it's, you know, it's.
- [12:24]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, I mean law.
- [12:25]
Matthew Berry
They just don't talk about like the way some of the.
- [12:28]
Lawrence
It's a good comparison too Matthew because usually when Godwin is healthy you got the two receivers, him and Mike Evans, Bengals the same way. It's just that they're better. Like you got the better quarterback there, although Baker is really good. You got better receivers there although Mike Evans is really good. I think that's kind and they. And they're very similar. So I think that's why they kind of get talked about a little bit less. But. But what people don't see about Bucky Irving is 591 90. He's a tough physical runner. One of the better second level runners in the league. That's why he's in every down back for this Bucs team.
- [13:01]
Matthew Berry
Yep.
- [13:02]
Jay Croucher
We had A question pop up from Eric Johnson about the lack of receiving touchdowns from Bucky Irving. Any concern there, Matthew?
- [13:08]
Matthew Berry
No. I mean, this is somebody who averaged seven and a half yards per target, second highest among running backs with at least 50 targets. And so I think touchdowns sometimes can be a little bit fluky. But what do we know? We know the Buccaneers are a good offense. We know they're going to be scoring position often and Bucky Irving is going to be on the field quite a bit. And so I think he'll probably get a little bit and I also think because of the injury to Wurfs that they will try to use him in the passing game a little bit more, especially with Rashad White banged up. So understand and appreciate the question, Eric, but no, I don't have any concern about that.
- [13:42]
Lawrence
It's also just he was a part.
- [13:44]
Matthew Berry
Time player for the first half of the year.
- [13:45]
Lawrence
Exactly. And just in general, no matter who you are, running backs don't catch double digit receiving touchdowns. Even if they're one of the better receiving backs in league. It just doesn't happen.
- [13:56]
Matthew Berry
Yes.
- [13:57]
Jay Croucher
Okay. Well, Matthew's spoken plenty about Amari and Hampton Lawrence. So no surprise of the ride or die makes the love list as is the God given.
- [14:05]
Matthew Berry
Be awkward if it didn't.
- [14:06]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, it'd be very silly. But Najee Harris, my perennial ride or die, perennial die candidate. Really? He's still no timetable to return. The Chargers obviously spent a lot of draft capital on Hampton. He's going to be the guy, I.
- [14:21]
Lawrence
Mean, the closer we get to this thing. We're inching closer and closer week one and we don't know when Najee Harris is going to get back. And all that tells me is that even when Greg Roman said he's going to share touches, that means he's going to be spelled. That means Amari Hampton is going to get a breather. Every running back needs to come out a little bit. I expect Amarian Hampton being a first round pick like he is, having the talent that he is, he could catch the ball, he could run the ball. He's a big dude who runs fast. Amari and Hampton, week one and probably beyond will be that true. Three down workhorse for the Chargers.
- [14:55]
Matthew Berry
The two arguments against Amarian Hampton, who by the way, can you we take camera one here for one quick second. By the way, can you see that eight behind me? That's Amarian Hampton right next to Jayden Daniels. That's the kind of respect this show has for Martin Hampton. We put him in hallowed real estate Right there next to Jane Daniel. That's right. Look at that shot right there. You got between Justin Jefferson and Jaden Daniels. Two down from Jamar Chase. That is heady company.
- [15:21]
Lawrence
Great company.
- [15:22]
Matthew Berry
Come on, now.
- [15:22]
Lawrence
Got to live up to that.
- [15:23]
Matthew Berry
And then you got Cam Ward there. You know, whatever. We don't want to pan out that far. Let's not get crazy.
- [15:30]
Lawrence
But tried to play you right there.
- [15:32]
Matthew Berry
Exactly what I will say. Right? So the viewer knows Juice. I know Omarion Hampton. I met him at the hall of Fame game. I know Omarion. I'm going to change my avatar to that. Look, it's the only arguments against Amarian Hampton. We all seen the tape. We all know the talent. The only arguments against him is, oh, he's going to be in timeshare with Najee Harris. As you mentioned, Lawrence, like, we're a week and a half away from the season starting. We have not seen Najee Harris on the field. And that's somebody who's on a one year prove it deal versus the guy that spent first round draft capital. And the other argument is like, oh, well, Greg Roman doesn't throw the running back. Well, except that when he hasn't thrown the running back, it's because he's had Lamar Jackson. It's because he's had, you know, Tyrod Taylor. Guys that kind of duck it and run versus throw it. But think about Justin Herbert when Austin Eckler was there. Justin Herbert had no issue dumping it off to Austin Eckler. That's in his skill set. He doesn't. He just, you know. Yeah, he didn't dump it off to J.K. dobbins or Gus Edwards. Would you, if you were a quarterback? Of course you wouldn't.
- [16:26]
Lawrence
You wouldn't dump it off to Gus Edwards.
- [16:28]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, exactly. So. Right. You know the fact that, like. Okay, sorry. That Kamani Vidal didn't get peppered with targets last year. Let's get real. Amarian Hampton. Like, do I. Do I think he's going to get 80 targets? No. But do I think he could wind up with 35 to maybe even 40 receptions? I do. If you look at any of the postgame press conferences that the Chargers had after they drafted Amarian Hampton, they kept talking about what a complete running back he is, how good he is at catching the ball, and how they want to use him on third down as well. Ride or die, baby. Ride or die.
- [16:58]
Jay Croucher
Very fired up question from Sal Vucano. How early would you reach for Hampton, Matthew?
- [17:04]
Matthew Berry
I'm at 30th overall. I'm at running back 13. But I don't think if, you know so certainly third round into the, into the second if your league is, is running back crazy. I mean, you know like I have no problem but I'm still drafting Bucky Irving or Chase Brown ahead of him. Like you know, gotta think, I'm taking.
- [17:23]
Lawrence
Yeah, you gotta think too if Anthony.
- [17:26]
Matthew Berry
Richardson was starting quarterback. It's more of a discussion But I'll take J.T. over him. But like that's the range we're talking about like right there in that range.
- [17:34]
Lawrence
We're in the middle of fantasy football draft season so things are going to change by the like we could get Najee Harris news today tomorrow and that could change somebody's draft strategy this weekend.
- [17:46]
Jay Croucher
Okay, let's get to others receiving votes headlined by familiar name in Alvin Kamara.
- [17:53]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, there's, there's a couple of quote unquote boring names on this list Jay. So you see it right there. You know, guys that are going too low because there's, there's sort of boring names that have been around forever but all they're going to do is produce. You think about Camaro who's never had a season with a target share below 18%. They just don't have a lot. James Conner, he's been a top 15 running back in all four seasons with Arizona and yet he's going outside the top 15. Travion Henderson, we've talked about him a lot on the show but Josh McDaniels teams have ranked top five in running back targets six of the last eight years that he's been a play caller as well. Tony Pollard by the way, Najee, we haven't really talked about this but Tajie Spears is pretty much banged up. We like the Titans offense. They're going to be aggressive when Tony Pollard gets work. He's very effective. We like the, we like both Broncos guys. Sean Payton is so Dobbins and Harvey. We think that's going to be a pretty good offense. Payton does a good job of mixing in his running backs. Both guys are going to be viable. Jordan Mason I think has a very good shot at out producing fantasy points wise Aaron Jones because of the injuries because the touchdown equity. I'm nervous about Ken Walker guys. I'm nervous about Ken Walker and Charbonnet has just been killing it in camp. I think there is a, it's a, there's a non zero chance that Zach Charbonnet ends up the year with more fantasy points than Ken Walker, but certainly at cost. I actually prefer Charbonnet even though I love Ken Walker, but Charbonnet's got a good shot at starting week one. And then of course, Braylon Allen, that'll play into it. But as our, as our guy Connor Rogers says, in between tears and Mets losses, the jets want to use Braylon more and more this year. He's at the practices all the time and you know he's going to be a much bigger part of this offense. Probably like the David Montgomery if they're, you know, they're probably installing a lot of what they, what this coaching staff had in Detroit. And so the easy comparison, rightfully so, is the Dave Montgomery role. You see some of the more late round sleepers. These are guys that like in deeper leagues are very Jaquory. Crosky Merritt, I don't know if you're going to be able to get him late anymore because the hype on him is unreal. But we've been talking about him for a long time. I do believe in the kid's talent. Be a little bit of a timeshare with Echler and Chris Rodriguez, but I do think ultimately JCM works it out. Shipley is the backup to Barkley coming off of a season where he touched the ball almost 500 times. We mentioned Sean Tucker when we were talking about Bucky Irving as well. They love Tucker and White already injured. Tucker has a chance to maybe get to the number two spot as well. Woody Marks like that Houston backfield is wide open.
- [20:20]
Lawrence
Yeah.
- [20:20]
Matthew Berry
Wide open. So.
- [20:21]
Jay Croucher
Okay, let's jump to the hate list.
- [20:24]
Matthew Berry
Oh, and I just want to mention Kalmanagan.
- [20:27]
Lawrence
How do I know? Guy, rookie out of Rutgers, playing good this preseason.
- [20:33]
Matthew Berry
Yeah. In Chicago. A decent path to playing time. Over 1200 yards. Two straight years in the Big Ten. Never fumbled. Lawrence never fumbled.
- [20:40]
Lawrence
Carry it high and tight.
- [20:41]
Matthew Berry
Yes, he does.
- [20:42]
Lawrence
Yeah.
- [20:43]
Matthew Berry
Yes, he does. That's like I carry my chicken tenders high and tight.
- [20:46]
Lawrence
Yes, you do.
- [20:47]
Matthew Berry
Yes, sir.
- [20:47]
Jay Croucher
Speaking of things, I hate this. Yeah. The Matthew Barry chicken tender saga dries.
- [20:52]
Lawrence
Chicken wings in the mirror.
- [20:54]
Matthew Berry
Maybe. Maybe that's what maybe I should do. I know tender.
- [20:56]
Jay Croucher
You know tenders.
- [20:57]
Matthew Berry
I know tenders.
- [20:58]
Jay Croucher
You do know tenders.
- [20:59]
Matthew Berry
There's zero tender.
- [21:00]
Jay Croucher
There is zero doubting your familiarity with chicken tenders. Let's go to the hate list and start with James Cook. Lawrence. Do you have any concerns around James?
- [21:08]
Matthew Berry
And again. But before he gets into that, I just. Again, the hate list is not about like, I don't like the player. It's, I don't like where the player's being drafted. I don't hate players. I hate adp. I hate value. Or I love players and I love adp. Again, every player has a value. It just depends on what it costs to acquire said players services for your team. And so it's not that I hate James Cook, Lawrence. I just hate where he's being drafted.
- [21:28]
Lawrence
Yeah. But you have him at running back 15. I like him this year, but I think that's. That's reasonable to be ranked at running back 15. He was a top 10 running back last year. That was with 16 touchdowns. You'd hope that a guy with 16 rushing touchdowns would be better than running back nine in fantasy points per game. So the main thing with Cook is the touchdowns. Right. We don't expect them to get 16 rushing touchdowns. We know Josh Allen runs in touchdowns. We know they got Ray Davis in there, Tyler Johnson. We got those guys. But again, ranked 15, I don't like. That's solid. My only. So my question would be to you, Matthew. Do you think he could keep up the efficiency? He's a guy that averages 5 yards a carry for his career, and that's kind of what keeps him. That's why they just paid him, even though he played less than 50% of the snaps.
- [22:22]
Matthew Berry
Yeah. Under 15 touches a game, less than a 10% target share. So he's not involved in the. It's really the touchdowns. Can you bank on the touchdowns? And so, you know, he's an obvious regression candidate. I was telling my buddy Jimmy Fallon, Tonight Show, I don't know if you guys caught the clip.
- [22:36]
Lawrence
You know Jimmy.
- [22:37]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, I know Jimmy. I know Jimmy. That's too. I know. I don't know Juice, but I know Tenders and I know Jimmy and is.
- [22:43]
Jay Croucher
A Jimmy Fallon chicken.
- [22:44]
Matthew Berry
Like, what else do you need in this world? Honestly? Honestly, you know, is there anything better than those two things?
- [22:49]
Jay Croucher
Just those two things than love and affection. That's really set.
- [22:53]
Matthew Berry
No, it's really. But I mentioned that to him, it's just like he could score 10 touchdowns this year. Would be amazing. It'd be great. And it would still be massively underperforming from what he did last year. Again, he's not involved in the passing game and he's got competition for touches, as you mentioned in Ty Johnson and Ray Davis and of course, Josh Allen as well, keeping himself. So I just think James Cook, who was, you know, an elite fantasy running back last year, drops off.
- [23:22]
Jay Croucher
Yeah. For context, DraftKings has James Cook's rushing touchdowns over. Under set at eight and a half. Right.
- [23:29]
Matthew Berry
Right. This is a guy who had 18. Yes, 18 total touchdowns last year, 16 rushing touchdowns.
- [23:34]
Jay Croucher
So it's expected to half basically the median outcome.
- [23:37]
Matthew Berry
That's right.
- [23:37]
Jay Croucher
Which is, which is tough to come back from Breeze Hall. Lawrence, who we've spoken about before, he's not had a season with a thousand rushing yards despite being basically. Doesn't sound like he was fully fit the past two years. But he's out there and he's playing all the games pretty much. But it seems like Braylon Allen's going to come to his workload and so is his quarterback.
- [23:55]
Lawrence
Yeah, I've been able to get out to some of these jets practices too, and it's very clear that they want to run with both Breeze hall and Braylon Allen. Like literally. You'll see Breece Breeze hall is going to start, but don't be surprised if you see Braylon Allen running out there the very next play. Here's the thing with Breece hall when it comes to fantasy, right? Can he get it in the receiving game? And what I did see there in practice, they would take, they would go out there, seven on seven, put Breeze hall, line them out, line them up, out wide, motion them in first play, drag across the field, Justin Fields hit him. Remember, they don't have a really top tier wide receiver number two. So Matthew, do you think if he could get those 60, 70 catches, could that kind of, could he kind of play up to his ADP in that way?
- [24:47]
Matthew Berry
Potentially. But look, the, the, the, the argument for Breece hall is that he's going to be Jameer Gibbs in this, in this, you know, sort of Lions east offense that they want to run with New York. That's the argument, right, Is that that they're going to use Braylon Allen sort of the Montgomery between the tackles and that they'll try to get hall in ball. So that's the argument for him. But the concern there is that that's a narrow window. Like all due respect to Breece hall, he's not Jameer Gibbs and he's not playing behind an offensive line like the Lions and he's not playing for a play caller. That's Ben Johnson. I think the Lions, I think the jets will be better this year. But he's never been a big touchdown scorer in his career. He never has. He's dealt with injuries throughout his career. And then you're thinking about Justin Field, who is two things. Number one, he's also a threat to take touchdowns away at the goal line, right? So you've got Braylon Allen, who's going to be presumably their goal line back. And then you've also got Justin Fields, who's always, you know, when they're on the 10 or, you know, 15, where you're hoping if he can get him Free spring and Free can run in the end zone, Fields can do that as well. So all you're hoping for is can he, to your point, get enough volume in the passing game to be viable. And the concern there is Justin Fields, at least throughout his career to date, hasn't thrown to the running back like last year. Last year, Najee Harris averaged three targets a game from Justin Fields. 3.1 to be exact. That's the most targets a running back has averaged under Justin Fields, you know, among qualified running backs. And it's just so you're like, three targets a game. Is Breeze hall eating on three targets a game? I just.
- [26:21]
Lawrence
He won't if he only gets three.
- [26:24]
Matthew Berry
That's what I'm saying. Like, I just, like, it's just, it's a narrow window. It's a narrow window there with Breece hall in terms of where he's going. He's being drafted. He's being drafted, you know, sort of in this, this kind of mid tier RB2, and that's just too rich for my blood.
- [26:39]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, I think a good Breeze hall season, a season where he outperforms his ADP is going to be dependent on just outlier home run hitting. That he takes these three and he can do it, but it's probably not the safest thing to bank on. Pretty safe thing to bank on at the moment. Matthew, is the uncertainty around Joe Mixum and his health status. He's out in deft with a lingering ankle and foot injury. And he makes the hate list.
- [27:04]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, it's the same ankle, by the way, that he injured last season. He's got no timetable for his return. And there's rumors, there are rumors out there that he could miss significant time. You know, Houston strike. I mean, who knows what ends up happening? I have no inside information on this. I have none whatsoever. This is merely just me looking around, trying to be logical. But, like, why wouldn't Houston call Washington or vice versa? And I think they could probably get Brian Robinson fairly cheap. He would make sense for Houston. And they're not in the same division as the commanders, so I feel like the commanders would be like, sure, Houston, you want to give us. You want to give us a fifth for him or something like that, like, and they do it. And so anyway, either way, I'm nervous about Joe Mixon, who turned 29 in July and from Week 10 on last year averaged 3.4 yards per carry. It's not an offensive line yet that I have a ton of confidence in. And the longer this lingers, the more you think, like, ah, something just doesn't feel right. Bad vibes.
- [28:01]
Lawrence
This is by far the scariest one. This is the scariest one by far on this hate list. Because when you. Again, when you hear that word indefinitely, you just like, I couldn't go into a draft this weekend saying, oh, I'm going to get a value on Joe Mixon and feel good about it because it's indefinite. So that's what I would say about mixing going forward.
- [28:22]
Jay Croucher
Okay, question from Timothy Martin. Does this make Nick Chubb startable as either a flex or an RB2?
- [28:30]
Matthew Berry
I think potentially a flex. If Mixon is officially out for week one, I mean, I would think Chubb would be the starting running back.
- [28:38]
Jay Croucher
He was the guy who got the run with the starters in the preseason game. He also looked, you know, he didn't look like Nick Chubb, but he looked better than I think you'd expect. He was 5 for 25.
- [28:47]
Matthew Berry
Yeah.
- [28:47]
Jay Croucher
And he was out there.
- [28:48]
Matthew Berry
So I feel I would feel better about him as a flex in an RB2. But, yes, if Mix is out, I think I think Chubb's very startable, especially, you know, depending on who else you have on your team, what options you have.
- [28:59]
Jay Croucher
Let's stick with the Houston Texans. We pivot to the pass catches. We heard from CJ Stroud talking about Nico Collins as a unicorn.
- [29:09]
Lawrence
I think he's one of a kind, man.
- [29:12]
Matthew Berry
He's a unicorn. Fast, strong jump ability, route running release at the line of scrimmage. He has it all. So, you know, it's my job, you know, to connect with him and, you know, I home one from the day. But, yeah, I think the sky's the limit for him, even in this offense. Like, I think, you know, having seekirk, having jwa, having metch J. No higg like, those guys help with just speed and verticality up the field to, you know, free kneecup a little more.
- [29:43]
Jay Croucher
Okay. Nico Collins a runner up for Ride or Die, Matthew.
- [29:47]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, and one of the arguments I was going to make if he was the Ride or Die is that Nico Collins is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. C.J. stroud calls him a unicorn, but I just call him. I think he is in the same class Lawrence as the CD Lambs, Justin Jefferson's Jamar Chase. I'm not saying he's as good as them, but I think he's in that same tier. I think he is an elite wide receiver. He is. And he's not being drafted as such. Now he's creeped up a little bit, but it's still towards the end of the first round, top of the second and I think he's, he just needs to stay healthy. But when he has been on the field, he's been nothing short of spectacular the last two seasons. He leads all wide receivers in yards per route run. He's second in yards per target. He's third in fantasy points per target. Right. And so he's been fifth in yards per game. And in the games in which he's played at least 60% of the snaps over the last two games, he, he's averaging 18.9 fantasy points per game. Just to give you a comparison, last year Justin Jefferson averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game. Again, he needs to stay healthy. But when you think about the fact no Tank Dell, no Stephon Diggs, we'll see what we get out of Christian Kirk, we'll see how the rookies come along there in Houston. But they're going to want to be more pass heavy this year. That's one of the reasons why they got rid of their offense coordinator last year. And then we just talked about it. Mixon's hurt. We don't know what you're going to get in Chubbs. So they're going to be throwing. They're going to be throwing.
- [31:04]
Lawrence
Yeah, I'm with you everything there. And I think the reason he's not being talked about in that tier yet and what he needs to really get there amongst the general consensus, he need to have one of them 16, 17, 1800 yard receiving seasons. Jamar Chase got it. Justin Jefferson has it and I think once he does that, that's when they start talking like it's the same for all these guys. Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, once they take. Because Nico Collins has been a 1200, 1300 yard guy. When he takes it up to that next notch, I think that's when people will say, oh, Nico is one of them.
- [31:41]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, the thing with Nico is that he was on pace to have that season last year before he got his hamstring against the Bills. I think people don't think of the Texans as this high variance offense because it's still CJ Stroud, still Nico Collins, still suspect O line. But bringing in Nick Kaley, the fact that they're going to throw the ball more, also the Fact that they're giving Stroud a lot more control at the line of scrimmage. I do think there's a lot of upside for this Texan.
- [32:01]
Matthew Berry
He's my wide receiver five this week as you see it there on your screen.
- [32:04]
Jay Croucher
Yep. Lawrence, A guy we've talked about plenty this preseason is Drake London, who was third in the NFL in targets last year and it was a rate that even spiked when Michael Pennix took over as quarterback the final three weeks.
- [32:16]
Lawrence
Yeah, you got to love that. Even this offseason, Michael Penic said expect even more of that. For me, there's only who am I taking over Drake London this year? Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, CD Lamb and Malik Neighbors. Those are the only four guys I'm taking over. Dre London. You see the number here, what Drake London did with Michael Penix. We still don't know what's up with Darnell Mooney, so that'll be even. They'll be even more reliant on Drake London, at least to start out the season. But you got Bijan and you got Drake London. That's who this offense is going to run through. I expect a big year from last year's fourth leading receiver in receiving yards in the league last year.
- [32:59]
Jay Croucher
Yep. Drake London, I think that he is a guy who just has one of the highest flaws of anyone. And even if he's not quite perhaps at the talent level of Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase, though he may not be that far off, but it's just, it's impossible, Matthew, to see how Drake London fails if he stays healthy.
- [33:14]
Matthew Berry
Yeah. Detective Drake London, friend of the show and we've talked about this a lot with him, but again, just sort of like it's not only the improvement of the of the quarterback play for him, it's not only the fact that just a massive target share but also just all the kind like they're going to throw it deep to him, but they're also going to put him in the slot. They're going to try to get those easy, easy catches as well. 47% of his targets last year came in the slot. And so, you know, getting him matched up on a linebacker, getting him in motion just. Yeah. I it assuming health for both Penix and London. I don't know how this guy isn't a top 10 fantasy wide receiver this year. It's very easy. I'm at wide receiver nine. Yep.
- [33:51]
Jay Croucher
He's very much used in a similar way to Cooper cup in that Zach Robinson off. Yeah. Being all around the formation. Another guy who's going to get a ton of targets. Matthew is Teteroa McMillan top 10 draft pick and the clear wide receiver one for Bryce Young.
- [34:04]
Matthew Berry
Last eight wide receivers to be drafted inside the top 10 all saw at least 100 targets as rookies. T. Mac certainly is. It qualifies there and then you think about his target competition. Thielens 35, Leggett had a 17% target share. Didn't really earn targets at a high rate last year. We saw the improvement that Bryce Young made down the stretch. T Mac is a truly elite talent. I'm at wide receiver 20. I think he's going to be a legit wide receiver too. On a better than people think Panthers.
- [34:32]
Lawrence
Offense 50 target share from Bryce Young in the preseason.
- [34:35]
Matthew Berry
Let's go.
- [34:36]
Lawrence
Swerve. They not messing around?
- [34:37]
Matthew Berry
No, they are not. No sir, they are not.
- [34:39]
Jay Croucher
Lawrence I thought one of the most interesting tidbits that any coach has said this whole preseason was when Liam Cohen went on the Rich Eisen show and said that he wants Travis Hunter to eventually ramp up to playing 80% of the snaps on offense. Like 80% of the Jags total snaps on offense. And if that's going to be the case, then he's been drafted way too long.
- [34:58]
Lawrence
Yeah, and again, the preseason is showing you how they want to use these, especially these young guys. They want to get them in there. They're not messing around. Say, oh, when you got a guy like Travis Hunter, you don't do all that coach speak. You get them in there, you get them the ball. That's exactly what the Jaguars did his first preseason game. They got him the ball in the short area and they're going to let him run with the ball because that's what he did at Colorado. You could get it to him on screens, you can get it to him on slant. He could catch the ball over you. He's a contested catch guy. He does it all. So Travis Hunter has been drafted to low J. And this is, I think this is why Matthew, you have him on the.
- [35:38]
Matthew Berry
Love list for sure. You know, and I've talked about this a lot. You have to sometimes throw out the stats and just look at people because football teams and NFL players and we're like, they're all human beings. They have egos and emotions and insecurities. And if you're James Gladstone, first year general manager that he's ever been a general manager with the Jaguars, first year with the Jags, first year in the big chair, Liam Cohen, first year as a head coach and the two of them combined on draft day. Said we're pushing all our chips in the middle and we're going after Travis Hunter. We're trading a ton of ton of capital to go up and get them. Travis Hunter has to work because the last thing they need is like Travis Hunter not working and then the ownership is going like, why do we just give up all this, all these assets for Travis Hunter? They will make sure that Travis Hunter, if nothing else, works in Jacksonville this year. Travis Hunter will work. I'm curious, Jay, because you're always the master at futures bets. What's the best way to bet Travis Hunter? The other day, you bet you like the Jaguars to potentially win this division. It's a weak division. Could he be offensive rookie of the Year? Offensive, Defensive rookie of the Year, Both like, what's the best way to bet Hunter?
- [36:49]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, I don't think.
- [36:50]
Matthew Berry
I actually think an MVP at bet isn't crazy.
- [36:52]
Jay Croucher
I don't think he can win Defensive rookie. There's something. He's going to play enough snaps. Offensive Rookie of the year, though, is 10 to 1. And if he is actually going to play 80% of the snaps, then he.
- [37:00]
Lawrence
Should be closer to getting a thousand yards.
- [37:01]
Jay Croucher
Yeah. Also just bet the over on his receiving yards, which is in like the 750 to 800 range, which I think he's going to go over that number.
- [37:08]
Matthew Berry
I just feel like if he's, if he's good and he does legitimately play both, both ways, voters are going to want to reward that somehow. So maybe it's offensive Rookie of the Year, like how do they reward or.
- [37:20]
Jay Croucher
You know, I think Offensive Rookie of the Year. I think that's the one to look out for. Travis Hunter, George Kittle. Matthew, who wins another friend of the podcast wins the award for most vivacious podcast guests we've ever had. He's a massive personality, George Kittle, and a massive producer in fantasy. Even though everything was falling apart for the Niners last year, didn't fall apart for George Kittle.
- [37:40]
Matthew Berry
No player. Not talking about tight ends, no player had more yards per target last season than George Kittle's 11.8. He's the only tight end with at least 1,000 receiving yards each of the last two years. Not Kelsey, not LaPorta, not, not any of the other guys. He's the only guy with at least 1,000 receiving yards each of the last two seasons. 34 games. Brock party. Brock Purdy has been the starter. Kittle scored 20 touchdowns in those 34 games. And so with Luke Farrell being signed to the 49ers. He's going to be more of a blocking tight end that frees Kittle up to run more routes. One of the issues with Kittle in previous years is he's such a good blocker they've had to keep him in line. But now with Farrell there and the fact that other than Ricky Pearsall, the rest of the pass catchers there are just sort of continue to get banged up. So I do think Kettle gets a massive target share this year. He's my tight end. Three Would not shock me if he ends the year as tight in one once again.
- [38:34]
Jay Croucher
Yep, I can confirm vivacious is actually a word.
- [38:36]
Matthew Berry
Yes, well done.
- [38:37]
Jay Croucher
All right, let's jump to others receiving votes headlined by Cortland Sutton. Matthew again, another guy who continues to produce but not nearly as sexy of a name as some of the guys being drafted in his range.
- [38:49]
Matthew Berry
Just again, like you think about sort of a theme here, right? It's again, love is about undervalued players, maybe even if they're big stars. But Kamara, James Conner, Cortland Sutton's another one of these guys that no one in your draft is going to be like Woo. But over his final 10 games last year, kind of along with the emergence of O Nix, he was the 10th best wide receiver in fantasy. They added Evan Ingram for the underneath stuff, but Courtland Sutton will take all the deep stuff. Speaking of deep stuff, how about George Pickens getting to Dak Prescott, who over the last two years Prescott the second higher passing rating on Deepak. Like I think that's a great fit for Pickens and Dak. Jameson Williams, my buddy Jared Goff on the field at the preseason hall of Fame game. When I asked him for a sleeper, he said Jameson Williams. He's just been killing it in practice. Top three in both yards and fantasy points for target last season. Ameca. Ameca Abuca. We've talked about him a lot, but with Jaylen McMillan clearly going to be missing some time, news this morning about Chris Godwin. I know he's being activated off the physically unable to perform list, but we still expect Godwin to miss some time at the beginning of the year. Abuka There's a legit chance, especially when you think about the fact that Evans has dealt with hamstring injuries. Jay There's a chance Emeka Abuka is the number one wide receiver for Baker Mayfield at some point this year.
- [40:04]
Jay Croucher
Absolutely. It could be as soon as Week 1. We heard from and around the NFL Buccaneers Todd Bowles on wide receiver Chris Goldwyn coming off pop list, he's got to get in football shape and everything else. So wouldn't expect him to play early on. So I don't really think this changes much about how we think about these guys. Think Igbuka is still going to a monster in the particularly the first month of the season?
- [40:21]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, I really like him a lot.
- [40:23]
Lawrence
But if it's the first month, how do you stop giving him the ball? I don't think he can. It's a first round guy.
- [40:29]
Matthew Berry
No, once he proves himself then you know toothpaste is out of the tube. Jacoby Myers is another guy that doesn't get a ton of respect because it's the bad, it's a bad team. He's not a household name but he played 12 games last year without Devonta Adams like he will this year and he was wide receiver 20 in points per game and he's basically going like just inside the 40s. Among wide receivers, Ricky Piersall, he is the one healthy guy in San Francisco, I think first round talent, he's been killing it in the preseason as well. How about Matthew Golden? Lawrence, we've talked about him a lot. I know you love Jordan, love to have a bounce back year. And golden, not only a first round talent but again sort of the only guy you feel like he can trust in Green Bay.
- [41:08]
Lawrence
Yeah, that used to be Jaden Reed, but he's dealing with the foot injuries. You got these other rookies, Savion Williams, you got Romeo Dobbs, who I still like. I still like Romeo Dobbs.
- [41:22]
Matthew Berry
But Tavian Wicks, none of them because.
- [41:25]
Lawrence
If it was like that they wouldn't have drafted Matthew golden in the first round for sure.
- [41:30]
Matthew Berry
And then finally Rashid Shahid is another guy. Other receiving votes. Look, when the guy's been healthy, he's been producing, he's healthy and it's a narrow target tree on a team that's going to be bad. And throwing.
- [41:38]
Jay Croucher
Yep. Okay, let's quickly run through the hate list. Matthew for pass catches headlined by DK Metcalfe, who's got a lot of uncertainty in his office.
- [41:46]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, but the one thing he is certain about, he's got Arthur Smith. And over the last four seasons with Arthur Smith as a head coach or offense Grainer, no wide receivers finished higher than wide receiver 31. Metcalf has only one career season, by the way, finishing higher than wide receiver 22. Everyone's sort of like, oh, he's the only guy. They're going to be run heavy and low scoring. How about Zay Flowers? Zay Flowers also makes the hate list here. Lawrence, I don't know what, how you feel about this, because I know you love your Ravens. Here's my argument on Zay Flowers. I just think there's limited upside. Last year's wide receiver, 31 in points per game season, despite having a 25% target share, he was top 15 in yards per target. Lamar Jackson threw 41 touchdowns.
- [42:24]
Lawrence
Right, right.
- [42:24]
Matthew Berry
But he's just. He's not a guy that gets touchdowns. And now you got likely, you got Andrews. When likely comes back, you got Rashad Bateman coming, coming out. DeAndre Hopkins, you know, DeAndre Hopkins. Like, I just don't feel like there's any upside.
- [42:35]
Lawrence
Not a team who's going to have to throw a lot offense. Lamar Jackson threw the ball 27 times a game, so let's remember that, too. He didn't throw the ball all over the field. And you just said it. Lamar spread the ball around too much for him to be that type of receiver in fantasy.
- [42:50]
Matthew Berry
Jameis Winston is not walking through that door, which is why Jerry Judy makes the hate list as well. He just, you know, all the underlying metrics didn't change. He just, he just got crazy target share from Jameis Winston. I think Flacco or whoever is under center will spread it around a little bit more. I have Judy outside my top 40 and I'm sorry, but Kyle Pitts, who we once. Who we once. Shame on.
- [43:12]
Lawrence
Why is he even on here?
- [43:13]
Matthew Berry
Because there's only people drafted him and I know Juice exactly like, no, I'm done. Like, what? No, stop. Stop with it. This is the year for Kyle Pitts. We hear it every year. It's not happening. Stop trying to make happens. What if it happening? He can be on. I'm happy to miss out. If I miss out on Kyle Pitts, I miss out on Kyle Pitts. But, you know, it's only been four years where it's like, oh, this is the year. He's in great shape. We're going to get him ready. We're going to unlock him. I mean, just you know where to restock real quickly. A couple of tight ends that I love that made the love list. Since we're running out of time real quickly. Colson Loveland, Tyler Warren Breton. Strange. Really like all those tight ends.
- [43:52]
Lawrence
Tyler Warren.
- [43:53]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, Tyler Warren. I have inside my top 10among tight ends. He's going to have a monster year.
- [43:58]
Jay Croucher
Okay. For playoff hopefuls, the last chance awaits. The NASCAR cup series closes out the regular season in prime time on the high Banks of Daytona, Saturday, 7pm Eastern on Mike NBC and Peacock. We're going to hit our first break. Love Hate continues with the quarterbacks coming up next.
- [44:19]
Lawrence
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- [44:35]
Jay Croucher
With local communities to grow programs and.
- [44:37]
Lawrence
Services, and expanding healthcare access to those.
- [44:41]
Matthew Berry
Who need it most.
- [44:43]
Lawrence
Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn more@mycare.org.
- [44:52]
Matthew Berry
Save big during Labor Day at Lowe's get up to 40% off select major appliances plus buy more to get up to an additional 20% off shop. Even more savings with three stay green.
- [45:03]
Lawrence
1 cubic foot vegetable and flower garden.
- [45:05]
Matthew Berry
Soil bags for $10 this Labor Day.
- [45:08]
Lawrence
Take care of your home for less it loaves.
- [45:11]
Jay Croucher
We help you save ballot through nine.
- [45:13]
Matthew Berry
Three soil offer excludes Alaska and Hawaii. Selection varies by location. Select locations only while supplies last. See lowe's.com for more details.
- [45:20]
Lawrence
And now a next level moment from AT&T business.
- [45:23]
Matthew Berry
Say you've sent out a gigantic shipment of pillows and they need to be there in time for International Sleep day. You've got AT and T5G so you're fully confident, but the vendor isn't responding. And International Sleep Day is tomorrow.
- [45:34]
Lawrence
Luckily, AT&T 5G lets you deal with.
- [45:36]
Matthew Berry
Any issues with ease.
- [45:37]
Lawrence
So pillows will get delivered and everyone.
- [45:39]
Matthew Berry
Can sleep soundly, especially you. AT&T 5G requires a compatible plan and device coverage not available everywhere. Learn more@att.com 5G Network.
- [45:53]
Lawrence
My coach at Oregon, Coach Lanning, used to tell us it's all about the illusion of choice.
- [46:01]
Matthew Berry
To where people think they have a choice in life, but they really don't. There's no choice. You do it or I guess you get left behind. So it doesn't matter if I want to be doing this or not.
- [46:17]
Lawrence
I'm doing it.
- [46:22]
Jay Croucher
Yeah.
- [46:23]
Matthew Berry
That is a guy who knows juice.
- [46:24]
Jay Croucher
Wow. A lot of juice in bx. Yeah. Shades of no choice.
- [46:30]
Lawrence
No choice but to be here. Matthew.
- [46:32]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, Okay. I don't even know how to follow that.
- [46:35]
Matthew Berry
I mean, that was intense sparring.
- [46:36]
Jay Croucher
No, not really, though. It was intense. Certainly intense.
- [46:40]
Matthew Berry
Anyway, I feel like, I feel like in his mind that was better than how it came out.
- [46:44]
Jay Croucher
It was potential. So close. But he didn't quite get it. But he does get a spot on the love list.
- [46:49]
Matthew Berry
Matthew Final 10 games average 21.4 fantasy points per game. He was the sixth best quarterback in fantasy football. They added, didn't lose Any skilled players added guys like Evan Ingram and J.K. dobbins. They drafted Pat Bryant. They drafted R.J. harvey. Second year in Sean Payton's system. I think fantasy goodness is here to stay for Bo Nix. He's legit. He's my QB8.
- [47:10]
Jay Croucher
Okay, Lawrence. Justin Fields, who's been out of practice as you make yourself a new part of New York sports media.
- [47:16]
Matthew Berry
Yes sir.
- [47:17]
Jay Croucher
How do you feel about Justin Fields?
- [47:19]
Lawrence
Oh wow. I love him here. He should be a top 10 quarterback once again in fantasy. This is something he's done in two other seasons when he was a full starter. I think he'll have his best passing year this year efficiency wise. Just along with maturing. He showed some of that last year with the Steelers where he was quarterback seven in those six games that he started. So definitely going to be getting a lot of Justin Fields this year because that's one of the quarterbacks you could get who can run 4,000 but you don't have to pay a second or third round price to get them.
- [47:52]
Matthew Berry
He's. He's being drafted as like QB13, QB14. I'm a QB9. I don't understand how he's being drafted outside the top 10. You know why? Because he's never been outside the top 10. Questions are abound about whether or not he's a legit NFL quarterback. But fantasy wise, which is not real life, he is absolutely a top 10 fantasy quarterback because he has been every single time he's ever started in worse situations that he has with the Jets. QB 7 on a points per game base with the Steelers Last year year QB9 and QB5 when he was starting for the on a points per game basis with the Bears. Better offensive line. Garrett Wilson. Justin Field's gonna have a very good fantasy year.
- [48:29]
Jay Croucher
Yep. Dak Prescott also in line for a big bounce back year. One of the favorites for comeback player of the year. Now he adds George Pickens to his offense. New coach, I think what's he going to be even though the names aren't the same thing, will be a better offensive line because it's younger and we'll just develop and get better.
- [48:44]
Matthew Berry
Yeah. By the way, add George Pickens, add a new coach but didn't really add to the running back room. Their running back room is as bad as I've ever seen it. And you think about previous years for Dak Prescott, he's had over 4400 passing yards and at least 30 touchdown passes each of his last three full seasons. Can he stay healthy? That's the question but I believe he can be. You know this is somebody who in 2023 was third in passing yards finished his QB4 on a points per game basis and he's currently going like his QB 12, 13, 14. I've seen him. Listen you guys know me, I'm a commander's fan. I'm not a big Dak Prescott guy especially when it comes to the playoffs but fantasy wise I think he's going to absolutely crush this year especially because by the way also their defense isn't as good this year Jay so I think they will be in more more free flowing games.
- [49:27]
Jay Croucher
Yep, I think the only guy is going to throw for more passing yards this year than Dak Prescott is Joe Burrow. Let's jump to others receiving votes headlined by Kayla Williams who looked impeccable in the pre season.
- [49:38]
Matthew Berry
Matthew most improved offensive line I think he'll have positive touchdown regression he does not get respect for the amount of rushing he does. He averages over 30 rushing yards per game. Speaking of rushing how about Drake May and Trevor Lawrence Last year May averaged 36 rushing yards. They've added some weapons to him Diggs, Kyle Williams, Trevion Henderson of the backfield Trevor Lawrence we've talked about a lot last season under Liam Cohen Buccaneers top three in passing yards and passing touchdown. It is going to be a pass first offense and I don't think people realize this but over his final seven starts last year Bryce Young was actually a top eight fantasy quarterback. He's going as QB 22 Dave Canales resurrect he's been the quarterback resurrector throughout his career Jay whether it was Baker Mayfield whether it's Geno Smith and it seems like he's done the same with Bryce Young who again they get t Mac to and another year in that system I'm excited for for Mr. Young this year Go Tide.
- [50:32]
Jay Croucher
Let's jump to the hate list start off with your man Lawrence to a tag of a lower what's the temperature check on tour who's entering I think a real make or break year coming off a strange season last year where he was fine when he played but he doesn't run the ball and huge health risk and also his wide receivers are health risk.
- [50:51]
Lawrence
Well so this the thing here with TUA the year he led the league in passing yards just 2023 really restarted he was still quarterback 17 in fantasy points per game and that's because when they get close to the goal line they're running the ball in with some running back whether it's a chance. That year they did it with Raheem Mostert, so it kind of hurts the touchdown equity. And then there's the fact that can he stay on the field not only for himself, but for his receivers and his running backs too. So with them, I think they could have a better chance to play some better real football than fantasy football. In the case of tua.
- [51:31]
Jay Croucher
Yep. Okay, Justin Herbert, Matthew, who I think will love as a football player, but his game, just in this game anyway, doesn't really translate as well to fantasy value.
- [51:38]
Matthew Berry
Chargers were 28th in pass attempts last season. They were 23rd in passing rate in the 12 games and where he had fewer than 35 pass attempts, he averaged under 15 fantasy points per game. This is a guy who finished As a top 12 quarterback, only 47% of his starts last year, and yet he's being drafted as a top 12 or 13 quarterback. According to FantasyLife.com consensus ADP, I've seen him as high as QB11. His average is QB13 as well. Again, one of the reasons why I like Omarion Hampton is I think they will run the ball effectively. I think they'll play good defenses here. Herbert's not going to have to throw a ton. He doesn't run a lot either. Really good real life quarterback.
- [52:15]
Lawrence
I wish he did run, but he's.
- [52:17]
Matthew Berry
I'd much rather have Dak Prescott who's going in the same same range.
- [52:21]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, okay. For all of our real sicko regulars out there, you can catch multiple draft season marathons, a fantasy football happy hour over the next few weeks that includes our first marathon tonight starting at 7pm Eastern, and a mammoth 12 hour marathon on August 21st. That's all for free on the NBC Sports now channel. Last call Coming up, our picks to win the AFC North. You just realized your business needed to hire someone yesterday. How can you find amazing candidates fast?
- [52:52]
Lawrence
Easy.
- [52:53]
Matthew Berry
Just use Indeed.
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Jay Croucher
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- [53:11]
Lawrence
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Jay Croucher
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Lawrence
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- [53:30]
Jay Croucher
NBCSports just go to Indeed.com NBCSports right.
- [53:35]
Lawrence
Now and support our show by saying you heard about Indeed on this podcast.
- [53:39]
Jay Croucher
Indeed.com NBCSports Terms and Conditions apply. Hiring Indeed is all you need. Drop King Sportsbook is an official sports betting partner of the NFL. New customers can bet $5, get $200 in bonus bets instantly and $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube TV. Just download the sportsbook app and use promo code FFHH when you sign up. Drafting Sportsbook.
- [54:04]
Matthew Berry
Oh, the crown is yours.
- [54:05]
Lawrence
Crown is yours.
- [54:06]
Matthew Berry
Crown is yours. Yours.
- [54:09]
Jay Croucher
The Crown is yours. AFC north champion Oz the Ravens minus 170 to repeat as champs. The Bengals plus 280. Steelers 5 to 1. Browns 41. I'm not overthinking this one, Lawrence. I'm taking the Ravens minus 170. Think this is the best offense in football and a top 10 defense.
- [54:25]
Lawrence
I don't even know what to say to add to that. What am I gonna. They got Lamar Jassy, you got Derrick Henry. Everybody's coming back. They added Jair Alexander. They got a good rookie free safety and Malachi Starks out of uga. I'm going to Ravens.
- [54:38]
Matthew Berry
You know what? I'll just be different here. I'll take the Bengals at + 280. Proud fantasy life investor Joe Burrow. Proud fantasy life investor Jamar Chase. But here's the other thing. They always play the Ravens tough. The other thing about the Ravens is is that I know that the chalk. But you know what? Last year they stayed relatively healthy. They stayed relatively healthy. That's tough to do anytime. Jokes aside about investor. Whatever. Anytime you have Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase, you have a chance in a game. And so just in terms of variance, I think they will see start faster this year. They would have been a problem had they made the playoffs last year. Give me the. Give me plus 280. Give me my Bengals.
- [55:11]
Lawrence
They better beat the Browns week one who day.
- [55:14]
Jay Croucher
Yeah.
- [55:14]
Matthew Berry
Patrick Sheridan.
- [55:15]
Jay Croucher
We need his love hate juice list. I believe that was aimed at Lawrence.
- [55:20]
Matthew Berry
Yeah. By the way, shout out to the regulars. Our largest audience next week to date. Keep it coming for Lawrence and Jay. I'm Matthew. Don't have to go home, but you can stay here. We'll see you tomorrow. Peace out.