Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry
Episode: QB Tiers: Examining Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, and Jordan Love + Superflex Draft Strategy
Date: August 28, 2025
Host: Matthew Berry (NBC Sports) with Lawrence Jackson, Jay Croucher, Trista Crick
Episode Overview
This episode is a comprehensive quarterback preview for the 2025 fantasy football season. Matthew Berry and his panel break down the current quarterback tiers, tackle key questions about value and draft strategy, assess outlooks for big names like Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, and Jordan Love, and provide actionable Superflex league strategy. The conversation is lively and sharp, blending deep analysis with the group’s trademark humor and debate.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Quarterback Tier Breakdown
Tier 1: The Elite (04:41)
- Jaden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts
- Berry emphasizes a clear top 4: "Once you get past those four guys who give you points with both their arms and their legs, there's a drop-off...I want one of those four guys." (05:03)
- Hurts is noted as a value since his ADP is lower than the rest (05:34).
- Rushing production is vital: “For Hurts and Allen, you get double-digit rushing TDs; for Daniels and Lamar, it’s elite rushing yards.” (05:48 – Lawrence)
- Hurts projected for more passing in 2025, not just running:
"Jalen Hurts is going to throw more this year because they just can't throw it any less. He can put up passing stat numbers and I think he'll do that more than he did last year." (06:28 – Jay)
- Lamar & Allen have higher spikes but more week-to-week volatility. (07:20 – Berry)
- Value of consistency: If you take a QB early, you want stable high scoring, but Lamar and Allen can "single-handedly win you a week." (10:08 – Berry)
Tier 2: Joe Burrow Island (14:15)
- Berry places Burrow in his own second tier due to elite passing, lack of rushing, but unmatched weapons and guaranteed volume.
"When he's healthy, he's always been a top 10 fantasy quarterback...He just doesn't run." (15:00 – Berry) “Joe Burrow could easily be 5,000 passing yards, 45 passing touchdowns this year...I can't remember a guy entering a season with that kind of upside.” (16:17 – Jay)
- The only knock is O-line risk; bad O-line might even boost his fantasy value by forcing more short throws. (20:04 – Jay)
- Weapons (Chase, Higgins, Gasecki, Brown) and bad defense mean more shootouts. (19:17, 19:52 – Berry)
Tier 3: The Big Group (21:04)
- Mahomes, Mayfield, Nix, Fields, Murray, Purdy, Prescott, Goff
- Each has a flaw: “There are question marks about each one...is Mahomes last year’s version or vintage? Does Mayfield regress? Have we seen enough from Nix?...” (26:34 – Berry)
- Berry likes Mahomes for a revenge, “scorched earth” season potential: “I think there’s a scenario where Patrick Mahomes just goes scorched earth this year..." (21:41)
- Dak Prescott stands out as most similar to Burrow for projected volume and trustworthy deep ball, thanks to new addition George Pickens. (23:22 – Lawrence)
Tier 4: Upside & Uncertainty (29:05)
- Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, CJ Stroud, Jordan Love, JJ McCarthy
- Not a huge gap from Tier 3; plenty of upside, but each carries some risk.
- Williams and Maye offer sneaky rushing upside; Berry highlights Carolina’s improved offense (29:18).
- CJ Stroud and Jordan Love noted as “written off too fast,” with Love still carrying injury and weapons risk (30:24, 31:17).
“The difference between Tier 3 and Tier 4 is not that great...if I don’t get an elite four, I’m fine being the last to draft a starter.” (32:14 – Berry)
- McCarthy’s situation called the “best ever for a first-year QB”—great coaching and quality weapons (34:44 – Berry, 34:53 – Jay).
Tier 5: Deep League & Superflex Specials (38:10)
- Michael Penix, Bryce Young, Tua Tagovailoa, Cam Ward, Daniel Jones, Geno Smith, Matthew Stafford, Sam Darnold, Aaron Rodgers, Jackson Dart
- Daniel Jones, now in Indy, seen as very draftable in deeper/superflex; better OL, weapons, and “nothing to lose” mentality (40:25 – Berry).
- Bryce Young’s strong finish in 2024 wasn't a fluke; expected to maintain improvement with new weapons and rushing (41:58–42:24 – Lawrence).
- Michael Penix called a “rocket ship” for upside (39:04 – Berry).
2. Superflex Draft Strategy
(45:52 onward)
- Top QBs (Allen, Lamar, Jaden Daniels, Hurts) still go in the top-5 picks.
- Berry: “I kind of. I want a quarterback in the first two rounds of a superflex.” (46:16)
- Don’t panic-reach: Get a QB early, but if elite options are gone, pivot to elite skill players, then QBs (46:16).
- Danger zone: “You just don’t want to end up in a situation where your two quarterbacks are Bryce Young and Michael Penix.” (47:26 – Jay)
- If desperate, “combo of Flacco and Dart is a viable QB2, assuming you've waited too long.” (49:17 – Berry)
- Importance of a third QB depends on how safe your top two are. If both are young and secure, optional; if risky, add a third like Stafford or Richardson. (49:48, 51:07 – Berry)
- Don’t overreact on the third QB; sometimes better to draft a quality skill player and stream a bye-week fill-in if needed (51:16 – Jay).
Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes
- “You don’t have to finish the year as the number one option at a position to be worth being the number one guy there. When you’re drafting a guy number one at his position, what you’re drafting there is floor.” (13:37 – Berry)
- “Jalen Hurts — he’s going to throw the ball more this year because they just can’t throw it any less than they did last year.” (06:28 – Jay)
- “Joe Burrow could easily be 5,000 passing yards, 45 passing touchdowns this year … I can’t remember a guy entering a season with that kind of upside.” (16:17 – Jay)
- On Bryce Young: "That's not a two or three game stretch. That's half the damn fantasy football season. … Soon as they put Tedroy McMillan, boom, he hit him on the deep route." (41:58 – Lawrence)
- On Mahomes as an X-factor: “It’s weird to say this about Patrick Mahomes ... but he, in a way, is the biggest X factor of the season.” (22:21 – Jay)
- “If I don’t get one of the elite four, I’m perfectly fine being literally the last guy to get a starting quarterback in my league.” (32:14 – Berry)
Important Timestamps
- 04:41 — Tier 1 QBs, philosophy on early vs. late QB picks
- 14:15 — Joe Burrow as a solo tier; weapons, upside, risks
- 21:04 — Tier 3 QBs, Mahomes’ outlook, why Prescott intrigues
- 29:05 — Tier 4, debate over Love, Stroud, Williams, McCarthy
- 38:10 — Tier 5 QBs; deep shots for superflex and injury stashes
- 45:52 — Superflex draft strategy breakdown & practical advice
Conclusion & Takeaways
- Prioritize an elite QB if you can, especially in superflex. If you miss out, wait for value and don’t force mediocre options.
- Joe Burrow is a uniquely safe, high-ceiling option—don’t overlook him if your league scores all passing stats.
- Don’t ignore Jordan Love and CJ Stroud at value, especially in Superflex or deeper formats.
- Superflex leagues: Two strong QBs are vital, but don’t sacrifice your overall lineup for panic picks. There are startable QBs deep into the top 20.
- Don’t over-draft a third QB at the cost of skill position talent; streaming is a viable fallback in case of a bad bye week.
Fantasy managers should focus on value, pick their spot for draft runs, and have contingency plans if they miss an early QB—while trusting that there’s deeper-tier upside if needed.
Notable Panel:
- Matthew Berry – NBC Sports, Host, fantasy QB tier architect
- Lawrence Jackson – Draft trends and player upside
- Jay Croucher – Advanced stats, schedule/risk assessment, bold takes
- Trista Crick – Moderator, probing questions, context framing
For further reading:
Berry’s full “Love/Hate” columns and more positional rankings are available on NBCSports.com/Rotoworld.