← Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry
Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry
Start/Sit: Drake Maye, Terry McLaurin, Isiah Pacheco + 10 Bold Predictions for 2025
00:52:03
September 3: Matthew (@MatthewBerryTMR), Jay (@croucherJD), and Connor (@ConnorJRogers) continue to ponder Matthew’s unusual choice in socks before jumping into players to start or sit in Week 1. Drake Maye, Isiah Pacheco, Javonte Williams, Terry McLaurin, and D.J. Moore are among the players discussed. The trio also detail bold predictions their making for Trevor Lawrence, A.J. Brown, D’Andre Swift, Nico Collins and Joe Burrow this season before Jay unveils a very long shot to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
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- [00:00]
Matthew Berry
Our state has changed a lot in the last 140 years. We know because Multicare has been here guided by a single making our communities healthier. That comes from making courageous decisions, partnering with local communities to grow programs and services, and expanding healthcare access to those who need it most. Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn more@ multicare.org Pacifico is a Mexican lager brood to be discovered. It's like fresh tracks on a powder day like that uncharted trail a stone's throw away like the perfect wave on a sunny day Pacifico, find your own way. 21 plus drink responsibly. Imported by Crown Import, Chicago, IL.
- [00:56]
Jay Croucher
Are you wearing socks or are these like skin colors?
- [00:58]
Matthew Berry
I'm wearing. I'm wearing socks, but they're like, they're short. If you can get a close up here, you've got the, the no shirt. I've got sort of the no socks. Like you can. Can you see there? Hang on.
- [01:07]
Connor Rogers
Yeah, that's the shot we needed for.
- [01:10]
Matthew Berry
I am wearing socks. I am wearing socks. But they're, they're low socks, like, and it's. They're black, so they blend in.
- [01:17]
Jay Croucher
Gonna have to throw the proverbial challenge flag on this one.
- [01:20]
Matthew Berry
I will. Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry.
- [01:29]
Connor Rogers
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Happy Hour.
- [01:31]
Matthew Berry
That's right.
- [01:32]
Connor Rogers
Connor Rogers, Matthew Berry, Jay Croucher. Those ankles are reluctantly back on camera.
- [01:37]
Matthew Berry
I tell you something, the commenters love the ankles. They did. You got compliments. I got compliments. We've got some ankle fetish people like, what's the. What's that? What's the feet? Is there a, you know, there's a feet site. There's a feet site out there for people. Sorry. Bobby Moore, 49454. We just did one. You know, I'll show my feet if I want to. It's a free country. Free. The ankle. Isn't that the movement? They're gonna lock it up and lock.
- [02:01]
Jay Croucher
The ankle up, seal it up.
- [02:04]
Connor Rogers
The comments are rolling on YouTube. Colt W. Said, just paused. Crocodile Dundee 3.
- [02:08]
Matthew Berry
Watch this, by the way. This is more entertaining. It's close. We did have a. There's a lot of ankle talk in Croc 3 as well as well. But no, there's like, there's some sort of, you know, for people that are foot fetishists. Maybe there's an ankle site out there too. I can earn some money. Interesting. Yeah. Throw some picks up of my ankles. I think I have good ankles. I think America's spoken. America loves the ankles. They're good. I have the ankles of a 30 year old.
- [02:34]
Jay Croucher
Yeah. Whole ankle community out there for you, Matthew. I don't know why your ankles are so thin. Like, what's going on there. Where's the kind of girth?
- [02:41]
Connor Rogers
That's where he's fit.
- [02:42]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, Right in the ankles. That's all I work out. That's where he does all his exercises. I only work out my ankles.
- [02:48]
Jay Croucher
It's like George Costanza as a hand model.
- [02:49]
Matthew Berry
Yes. Type of sit a little bit.
- [02:52]
Connor Rogers
Speaking of which, you just got it all going today. New haircut.
- [02:55]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, look at. I mean, got a new haircut. Well, tomorrow night, Football night in America for NBC and Peacock, I will be on the sideline in Philadelphia. Cowboys and Eagles kicking off the season. Of course, I'm a company man and so, you know, I gotta make myself look presentable for a national audience. The two of you morons, I don't care. Like, you know, yeah, I'll have long hair for these two J'. Mokes. But for America. For America, I gotta, you know, do what little I can with what very little God has given me to work with.
- [03:22]
Jay Croucher
Flash the ankle on fni.
- [03:23]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, I might do that. I might do that. I was part of my parlay. There you go. Yeah, exactly. Very exciting for all.
- [03:30]
Jay Croucher
The fifth leg is the literal leg. It's the ankle.
- [03:33]
Connor Rogers
You might have some kind of collab with DraftKings. They're gonna love that.
- [03:36]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, exactly.
- [03:38]
Jay Croucher
And an ankle.
- [03:39]
Connor Rogers
Yes, you get. You get a bonus on the extra ankle of the parlay.
- [03:43]
Matthew Berry
100%. The crown is yours, the ankle is yours. There you go. Something to think about, Mr. King. Just put it in the hopper. Just think about that right there.
- [03:51]
Connor Rogers
Will Garretson in the comments. Release the Barry Barkers.
- [03:55]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, there you go.
- [03:57]
Connor Rogers
There it is.
- [03:57]
Matthew Berry
Release the Berry Barker. They're loving it because my dogs are barking.
- [04:00]
Connor Rogers
A very certain section of the audience is loving it. Jay and I, and most of the audience.
- [04:05]
Matthew Berry
Will. Will's got my back. Love you, Will. Appreciate you, brother. Appreciate you quickly.
- [04:10]
Connor Rogers
They forget you turned on all of them last night.
- [04:11]
Matthew Berry
No, no, but then I showed a little skin. That's all it takes.
- [04:14]
Connor Rogers
Looks amazing.
- [04:15]
Matthew Berry
That's all it takes. Show a little skin. You know, maybe I'll wear a V neck tomorrow. Yeah, well, little cleavage.
- [04:22]
Connor Rogers
It's all downhill from here. For the show. We got bold predictions later, our boldest predictions of the fantasy season. But before we do any of that, the first edition to keep it open or close it out, it's our start segment of the week here at the Fantasy football happy hour bar. And we are going to. As you see the quarterback rushing yards per game here, Matthew, we're going to kick things off with Drake May, who was very efficient in this category last year. Before we get to it though, let's hear how Drake May is feeling on his first week start of his career.
- [04:53]
Jay Croucher
It's kind of like, you know, back in the day playing basketball, kind of find a, you'll find a layup before you start shooting some threes. I think just whether it's a, a good run or, you know, with the guys up front and the running backs or maybe easy completion. But other than that, I think it's.
- [05:06]
Matthew Berry
Just, just getting out there and I think that's part of it.
- [05:10]
Jay Croucher
I think it's whether it's going to be kind of the jitters or going to be fired up. That's more of what it is. Just to kind of calm that and I think kind of use the guys around me as well. I think use the guys around me to kind of feel like, hey, you know, if they're pumped up, I'm gonna.
- [05:25]
Matthew Berry
Get a little pumped up.
- [05:25]
Jay Croucher
But you know, when I get out there, kind of be cool and calm and collected.
- [05:31]
Matthew Berry
Yeah. Very excited for Drake May's debut. Excited for him this year as well. By the way, he is the quarterback on live at. Live at noon on the tube. I had to change the name, rebrand it. Yeah, I had to rebrand it. But we're live at noon on the tube. We, we're five o' clock on the cock. But you know, it just, it doesn't go the same way. So Live live at noon on the tube. Five o' clock a two time.
- [05:52]
Connor Rogers
The cock is pretty good though.
- [05:54]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, it's really good. But we're not live at five on the cock. We're. We're just on. On the cock at Delayed on the cock. Delayed on the cock at 12:05. And the show is beyond doomed.
- [06:05]
Connor Rogers
Doomed disaster.
- [06:08]
Matthew Berry
I apologize to America. All right, so we were talking about Drake May, right?
- [06:12]
Connor Rogers
Yeah, he's my quarterback starting him.
- [06:14]
Matthew Berry
He's my quarterback. I'm starting him this week. I'm starting him with bells on with my ankles exposed. I'm very excited about Drake May this season and specifically in this game at home against the Raiders. Per our friends at Pro Football Focus, no team has a worse ranked secondary heading into 2025 than the Las Vegas Raiders. This game is on the road at New England last year. Raiders bottom five in terms of touchdown passes allowed. Drake May was good last year, actually Very quietly, right. And he scored 17 or more fantasy points in 60% completed games like so he actually scored fairly high when he was able to play the whole game. And that was on a team that honestly didn't use them in the run game at all. He had really very little designed called runs, designed runs that were called. And he didn't have a ton of weapons this year. You know, the addition of Stefon Diggs, you know, Travion Henderson out of the backfield, another year of Pop Douglas. We'll see what we get out of Kayshawn Booty and Kyle Williams. But I feel better about the weapons around him. I feel a lot better about the coaching around him. Second year in the league for Drake May who as you saw that graphic when we started this, Conner gets you points with his legs as well. Top five among quarterbacks in rushing yards per game. That's again without any designed runs. And I expect Josh McDaniels to use his legs quite a bit. And when you got to deal with Travian Henderson on the outside, that's going to open up some RPO stuff for Drake May.
- [07:33]
Connor Rogers
And it's great that Stefan Diggs is going to play in this game as well. It only helps as valiant Vincent Drake May to the moon this season.
- [07:40]
Matthew Berry
To the moon.
- [07:41]
Connor Rogers
So very just as excited as you, Matthew. What about you, Jay?
- [07:44]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, I think one thing in this matchup in particular is that if you haven't been paying super close attention, you might think our Raiders like solid defense. Max Crosby, they were pretty good a couple years ago. I don't have any cornerbacks. Is there cornerback one?
- [07:56]
Connor Rogers
The pass rush will be good.
- [07:58]
Jay Croucher
Pass rush should be good. So I think that's very. It's gonna be boom or bust. There should be explosives. And May again just the the seminal player who lends himself well to fantasy.
- [08:06]
Matthew Berry
Just with especially because by the way, if he's getting pressure then he has the wheel turn and run and everything like that. So I'm definitely keeping it open. I think he's a borderline QB one this week as well. Very excited about Drake May this season, but specifically this week.
- [08:18]
Connor Rogers
How about Isaiah Pacheco? This is obviously the Brazil game against the Chargers right now. And Matthew, the Chiefs backfield has been a little difficult to figure out this early in the season, especially since Pacheco didn't look like himself when he came back from injury last year.
- [08:32]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, it was tough. And this is the Brazil game on Friday night. So that adds another element of unknown to this as well. But Listen, he had five touches in the preseason. Got 51 yards. Like to me, just to the eye test, Connor, he looked like, oh yeah, that's the guy we remember from two years ago.
- [08:47]
Connor Rogers
I agree. Like the offseason was really, really needed for him.
- [08:50]
Matthew Berry
Yeah. And so think about last year prior to the leg injury. Weeks one and two, he scored at least 15 fantasy points. In both those games. He averaged over 20 touches a game. He had a 16% target share. And then the other question you ask about Isaiah Pacheco. Okay. Is he back? Yes, it looks like in the preseason he's back. Okay. Who's his competition? Kareem Hunt. Kareem Hunt was like, it looked like he was running on fumes last year. Connor. And then you've got some of the other guys that some of the younger guys. I feel like Isaiah Pacheco is going to get a big workload against a tough Chargers defense in Brazil. I think he's a high end. Flex play this week. Right. But if I have Isaiah Pacheco, I'm likely starting him. I don't know that you have better options in terms of teams that you. A guy that you think will get in the end zone. As we've talked about, we think the, the Chiefs go scorched earth this year.
- [09:34]
Jay Croucher
Yeah. One of the biggest line moves in the NFL in week one, the Chiefs, who are hovering in minus two range, is now pushed into three, pushing towards three and a half, which I think makes more sense. I think they are a tier above the Chargers as a team. And yeah, if you want to be in on the idea of Patrick Mahomes Getting back to 2022 MVP Patrick Mahomes form, then I think by extension you have to be in on just this offense scoring a lot of points and Pacheco should benefit. I still think with the uncertainty, he's the only guy who's really got upside in the backfield.
- [10:01]
Connor Rogers
I think, yeah, Burchard Smith is probably a little bit ways away. I wouldn't expect him to have a real role just yet. Ezra Nelson in the comments. Isaiah Pacheco cost me a championship last year. Close it out. What do you think of taking biases from a previous season into a following season?
- [10:15]
Matthew Berry
I get it. Fantasy football is an emotional game and there's definitely players where you're like, ah, that guy burned me. Never again. Or that guy will always have a place in my heart forever and ever. Doesn't matter what else he does in his career. So I get the emotional piece of it, Ezra. And listen, we play this game for fun. So if you're like, you know what, I'm done with Pacheco, I get it. But we have to look at it objectively and so appreciate you saying, I'm keeping it open, Ezra. We'll see how it all. All plays out. But he's got a. He's got kind of a snazzy dress there. He looks very sharp. He's got the. He's got the glasses and the suit and the tie.
- [10:48]
Jay Croucher
Yeah.
- [10:48]
Matthew Berry
Kind of got a Clark Kent thing going in his profile picture.
- [10:51]
Jay Croucher
Like a young Matthew Berry.
- [10:52]
Matthew Berry
Like a young Matthew Berry, right?
- [10:54]
Connor Rogers
Very.
- [10:54]
Matthew Berry
Yes. Yes. Ezra, let's see your ank. Your ankles.
- [10:58]
Connor Rogers
Maybe not. Ezra. Javante Williams, our next running back on this list. Much different situation here, Matthew. The Eagles last year they gave the second fewest fantasy points to running backs and we just don't know if Javante Williams is ever going to get back to pre injury form. But Dallas looks like they're going to give him the chance. And volume wise, yeah, I mean, he's.
- [11:15]
Matthew Berry
Gotten, you know, Jadon Blue is just coming off of, you know, kind of a banged up preseason here. You've got Miles Sanders as well. So I do think if you're. If you're betting on who's going to lead the Cowboys in touches in the backfield in week one, I think it's Javante Williams. Here's the weird thing. I'm going to close it out for this week, but I actually think there might be value in Javonte Williams later in the season again for people. Like, I have two drafts tonight. I know there are people still drafting tonight that are drafting this weekend as well. So I actually think that Javante Williams, who's going way late in drafts, everyone just sort of hates Javonte Williams, which I kind of get. I kind of get. But I'm just saying, like, it's going to be a pretty good offense with a bad defense. They're going to be in scoring position often. And I do think that Javonte Williams would be the. The head of a bad running back. I like a late flyer on Jaydon Blue, you know, once he gets up to speed. But there's probably some value in Javonte Williams early on, just not on Thursday night at Philadelphia. I'm closing it out on him. You know, there's an implied team total of below 20 points. It's a bottom five on the slate. Like I think the Eagles boat race them. Jay, in this particular game, he basically needs a ton of volume to be productive. We don't know Dak hasn't really thrown to the running backs a ton in his career.
- [12:21]
Connor Rogers
That's what matters most here.
- [12:23]
Matthew Berry
Right. And so they just have such a good run defense. The Eagles do. And we expect by the way the Eagle to put up points on Dallas. So game script isn't looking to go in his favor either.
- [12:34]
Jay Croucher
To your point about volume, DraftKings has his rushing attempt set at 10 and a half backed under and his rushing yards 38 and a half receiving yards 12 and a half. He's like a 30 chance of scoring a touchdown. It's not great. It's not the worst that you can do when you flex but at the same time like this is a very difficult matchup. The Eagles were the second most efficient rushing defense in the NFL last year. I think that that has a chance to sustain. They might not be second again, but they will be a good rushing defense. So yeah, I don't think you want to part of Javonte Williams.
- [13:02]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, closing it out. He's going to be barely a top 40 running back for me this week and I'll just say that like here in week one where generally you don't have any buy issues, you should be more or less healthy. I just think you'd have to be pretty desperate in a pretty deep league to start Javante Williams this week. Julio, thank you.
- [13:16]
Connor Rogers
How soon will Jadon Blue have meaningful snaps?
- [13:19]
Matthew Berry
Julio, think you are one of the best screen names. We've talked to him before on the show. Yeah. So Julio, good to see you. That's a question for you Connor. In terms of Jadon Blue, like how pro ready is he as a prospect? Obviously a lot of explosiveness but also a little bit banged up.
- [13:33]
Connor Rogers
Yeah. In a very niche role. It's kind of the combo we have with Woody Marks all the time. This is somebody you could see on the field as a pass catching back and a good route. Sure. He's not a guy that's just catching dump offs. He can run angle routes, wheel routes. He's explosive but he's somebody too that's on the smaller side. He's been banged up this summer like you said, where you're going to need an explosive play for him to be viable in your flex spot. So I think this is a real wait and see. I would imagine more so in that third down role in middle of October is when we're talking about him more. It's going to be pits and flashes for now.
- [14:02]
Jay Croucher
Yes. And also the Cowboys offense can be really good and really explosive and the running back not that involved. When Dak finished second in MVP two years ago, Tony Pollard had like a really down year by his standards and expectations. So I think the Cowboys looking explosive. It happens much more through the passing game.
- [14:20]
Matthew Berry
Yeah. So I think probably, I think somewhere in the week four to six range. Just to answer your question, Julio is what we're expecting but obviously keep your eye on it. I do like them as an end of the bench stash.
- [14:29]
Connor Rogers
Caleb Johnson, another running back kind of with a similar projection. Listen, the Jets Steelers it's the lowest total of week one right now it's 38 and a half is the over under and that's gone down. It was even a point higher than this a while ago. So not a lot of points expected in this game Matthew. But more concerning to me with Caleb Johnson is the Steelers usage or desired usage of Jalen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell over him this summer.
- [14:55]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, Caleb Johnson played behind both guys during the preseason. The initial depth chart which we always put a ton of stock in. But for what if it's worth, the initial depth chart that the Steelers released for week one has Caleb Johnson as the number three running back behind Warren and Gainwell. It's a tough matchup. As you mentioned against the jets they allowed the fifth fewest yards to opposing running backs last year. Low total here. And this is an Aaron Rodgers thing. Caleb Johnson is somebody that didn't come into the pros as somebody that you think is really great at pass protection.
- [15:26]
Connor Rogers
There's nothing one year starter and a great year but he was, he was the guy for that one big year and then left right.
- [15:32]
Matthew Berry
And just traditionally it has been tough for a rookie running back to get on the field with Aaron Rodgers. Like you have to earn trust with Aaron Rodgers. And so given how run heavy they want to be and given the influence we expect Rodgers to have in that building, it makes sense why he likes Warren and Gainwell, the two veteran running backs that have been in the league for a number of years. Why he would like them over Caleb Johnson. I just don't know how you. So I'm closing it out just to be official here. I'm closing it out. He's also going to be like kind of a barely top 40 play for me this week. Maybe he falls in the end zone and you get lucky but you're looking at a, a three headed monster that he's on the wrong side of in a tough matchup here. You know, welcome to an Arthur Smith offense once again. I've said this all preseason. It is going to drive people Crazy how much Kenneth Gainwell and John O. Smith plays in this Pittsburgh Steelers offense when everyone's like where's Caleb Johnson and DK Metcalf? I'm just telling you it's going to drive people crazy. Welcome to Arthur Smith.
- [16:27]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, I think a lot of the fantasy value around the steals is going to depend on in the red zone. Aaron Rodgers. Last year, despite the offense not being super high octane, Aaron Rodgers threw the ball inside inside the 20 at the third highest rate in the league.
- [16:41]
Connor Rogers
Checked out of run plays non stop.
- [16:42]
Jay Croucher
Only Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow threw the ball over expectation more than Aaron Rodgers. So what's it going to look like at the goal line? Is Caleb Johnson going to even get carries or is Aaron Rodgers going to be checking out which he's done his whole career. I think there's just a ton of uncertainty. They just signed Jalen Warren to an extension. He is the guy.
- [16:57]
Matthew Berry
By the way they paid him real money too. Like that's you know let's that's real.
- [17:00]
Connor Rogers
Running back high praise for him after the extension.
- [17:03]
Matthew Berry
That's like in Tony Pollard range kind of money.
- [17:05]
Jay Croucher
They're talking about him as the featured back and the usage for Gainwell and Johnson will wax them way in a bit. Jalen Warren said at 12 and a half rushing attempts on DraftKings, I think he'll get 13 carries in this game.
- [17:15]
Matthew Berry
I think so as well. And Connor, I just want to ask you about just the Rodgers comment checking out of plays at the goal line. How much of that last year with the jets do you think was his connection with Javante Adams who just you know they had such a mind meld especially in close. How much was that or him padding the stats or just the fact that he just didn't believe in, didn't believe in the run game the way he did with with Devonte Adams I guess pushing it forward. Do you think that same scenario happens this year with DK Metcalf? John O. Smith and I do think.
- [17:45]
Connor Rogers
There was a Devonte aspect to it but he also checked out of runs and would throw to Xavier Gibson. So you're looking around and like okay he just wants to throw a touchdown and didn't trust the line to punch it in. So yeah I think it's something that will in some capacity continue. Jack Reacher said Arthur Smith doesn't look at KJ the way he looks at John New Smith.
- [18:04]
Matthew Berry
No one looks at, no one looks at anyone the way Arthur Smith looks at Jonathan Smith. I love my wife. We've been together 17 years. I don't look at her the way that Arthur Smith looks at john.usu.
- [18:14]
Connor Rogers
It'S a special connection.
- [18:15]
Matthew Berry
Yeah. For example, I was at your wedding. I saw how you looked at Kristen. You had those in your eyes. Not the same. Not the same.
- [18:21]
Connor Rogers
No.
- [18:22]
Matthew Berry
Not. We'll admit it, not the same at all. Do you think that's the actual Jack Reacher?
- [18:28]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, I don't think so.
- [18:29]
Connor Rogers
We've had some names in the comments section that were.
- [18:31]
Matthew Berry
He's kind of a badass, that Jack Reacher.
- [18:33]
Connor Rogers
We're wondering if you're the real one.
- [18:34]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, well done. I don't think it is either because he's like, he doesn't have a phone. That's. That's the whole shtick. He doesn't have the phone, he doesn't have, you know, nothing.
- [18:43]
Jay Croucher
I recently watched Jack Reacher 2 for the first time.
- [18:45]
Matthew Berry
The movie?
- [18:46]
Jay Croucher
Yeah. Not a great piece of cinema.
- [18:48]
Connor Rogers
Most sequels are a mistake.
- [18:49]
Matthew Berry
Yeah. But not terrible. Other than. I will say that it is, it is. Of the Tom Cruise action roles, sure. Jack Reacher is one of his more enjoyable ones. Like I think Mission Impossible is up there. I think Mission Impossible is kind of the standard but like, you know, Edge.
- [19:07]
Jay Croucher
Of Tomorrow, much better if we're calling that action. Edge of Tomorrow is a much better film than Jack Reacher two Man.
- [19:12]
Matthew Berry
Yes, it is. But I'm just saying in terms of characters. I don't know, I don't know.
- [19:16]
Jay Croucher
Great character.
- [19:17]
Matthew Berry
Jack Reacher is a great catcher. Yeah. I have to go back and watch that one again. That's the time travel one, right? They go back and forth and.
- [19:23]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, it's like a. I'm gonna over. It's like a 93 on the tomato. Yeah, it's a very good film. The second one, no, the Edge of Tomorrow. I'm going to send the over under 40 and a half.
- [19:38]
Connor Rogers
Yeah, yeah, that sounds right. Probably in the 30s.
- [19:39]
Matthew Berry
I will. You know what though? I will just say in terms of movies, I have a soft spot for just sort of like awesome guy kicks ass throughout the movie. Kind of like the Taken theater. Love all the Taken movies.
- [19:51]
Connor Rogers
Like nine.
- [19:52]
Matthew Berry
All the John Wick movies. Give me one guy, you know, with a bunch of people coming out and just kicking ass for two hours. I'm in. And Jack Reacher is kind of like that.
- [20:00]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, that's what works with Tom Cruise being 5 7.
- [20:03]
Matthew Berry
It's a movie.
- [20:04]
Jay Croucher
The first one is good. I like the first. Jack Reacher number two, not so great.
- [20:08]
Matthew Berry
Well, don't watch the TV show, by the way. Like have you Watched the TV show, the Reacher TV show. It's, it's, it's of a similar ilk. I enjoy it. But yes, it's three seasons of him.
- [20:20]
Jay Croucher
Just kicking ass, closing it out on Jack Racha.
- [20:23]
Connor Rogers
We move to wide receivers.
- [20:25]
Matthew Berry
I'm keeping it open.
- [20:25]
Connor Rogers
We move to wide receivers. Terry McLaurin up next on our list. And the biggest question we have right now, how ready is Terry? He answered that with the media.
- [20:34]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, I'm definitely a competitor, so I want to try to get as many reps as I can. And obviously there is a, there's a.
- [20:40]
Jay Croucher
Difference between being in shape, football shape, and then game shape.
- [20:44]
Connor Rogers
You know what I mean?
- [20:45]
Matthew Berry
Like, I've done a whole off season and you go into game one, you're like, whoo, I'm winded. You know what I mean? And so that's just the process of football. But I've done everything that the training staff and the coaching staff have asked.
- [20:55]
Jay Croucher
Me to do since I've been here.
- [20:56]
Matthew Berry
I'm going to continue to do that. And there's a great plan in place.
- [20:59]
Jay Croucher
For me to continue to ramp up.
- [21:00]
Matthew Berry
So that there aren't any setbacks. There aren't any things that are hindering.
- [21:04]
Jay Croucher
Me from playing at a high level.
- [21:05]
Matthew Berry
When it's time to say set. Go.
- [21:09]
Connor Rogers
For all the greatness Last year, Terry McLaurin Pretty underwhelming numbers against the Giants.
- [21:14]
Matthew Berry
In both games he scored twice. But, you know, one was like the, there was that field goal game, like that ugly field goal game and they didn't need to do much and certainly not in the second game against the Giants as well. Look, in terms of their team total is over 25 points. It's top five on the slate here. They're, they're a home favorite here as well. And no team allowed a higher completion rate on deep passes than the New York Football Giants last year as well. I expect some limited snaps. I know that he struggled a little bit last year. I know that they've got added competition and Debo Samuel in terms of the pass catching, but I just can't imagine having Terry McLaurin on my roster with a healthy Jaden Daniels at quarterback at home against the Giants as favorites and benching him. I just can't imagine myself clicking sit. So I'm keeping it open on Terry McLaurin. Have more as a wide receiver 3 this week than a wide receiver 2. Jay But I do think your G men fall to my commanders. Although I will say this, I wouldn't be surprised if they covered I'm nervous. I don't know if you can have a trap game in Week 1, but I think this one might be because expectations are so high and yes, people are sort of like you know, waving the Giants off. It's a real defense. Yeah.
- [22:20]
Jay Croucher
Okay. Firstly, not my G man. I'm a Saints fan now. Secondly, Giant, Giants getting a lot of respect in the market. This is push. It was six and a half. Now it's pushing down towards five and a half.
- [22:28]
Matthew Berry
Really? Wow.
- [22:30]
Jay Croucher
For the Giants defense, I think more so than the offense, but I think the Giants are going to lose a lot of games this year. Between three and seven points.
- [22:36]
Matthew Berry
I would agree with that.
- [22:37]
Jay Croucher
So I think that the Commanders will win, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Giants do cover. It's gonna be interesting all season. Connor with the Giants, just the nature of their defense or it's going to be very boom or bust. Because if Abdul Carter and Dexter Lawrence and Brian Burns, if they don't get home, then it's deontay which is a resort that is open for many. Yeah. Inclusive. Maybe drinking mojitos on set island.
- [22:58]
Connor Rogers
Without a doubt. I think that pass rush is going to be very good. But that's the matchup. They're going to try to isolate Jay for sure. We have a question in the comments here. Speaking of the commanders, Iran 93 is Debo a must start?
- [23:10]
Matthew Berry
I don't think he's a must start but I'm likely starting him because I do think they will try to and this is why I'm sort of in on McLaurin as well. First off, as we mentioned, I think the fact is we don't know what's going on with the run game. I'm a little nervous about Jakory Crosky Merritt who is wearing a non contact jersey a little bit this week. So I'm a little. I kind of want to see what happens with the run game with the commanders.
- [23:33]
Connor Rogers
Chris Rodriguez, Buzz.
- [23:34]
Matthew Berry
Chris Rodriguez, Buzz. Proud fantasy life investor Austin Eckler, of course, always in the mix. But my expectation here is that they're going to want to get the ball to Terry because of the holdout and everything like that. Jayne Daniels want to kind of hey, let's welcome back. Let's try to get in the end zone. And same with Deebo. Like they're going to want to show off Debo. So I think you'll see some jet sweeps. I think you'll see a lot of motion. And so I do think they try to for different reasons get the ball in Those guys hands. So must start is a little bit strong, but you'd have to have pretty strong options to keep Debo on your bench. I think he has a nice game this week.
- [24:06]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, he said a 47 and a half receiving yards and for Debo, he can make that into something special. He's plus 200 to get into the end zone. I agree. I think they might go out of their way to do that. By the way, JCM is plus 330 to score a touchdown, which seems they.
- [24:19]
Connor Rogers
Don'T think he's going to get enough touches.
- [24:20]
Jay Croucher
He's. Austin Eckler is half his price. Austin Eckler is. Which I think I would have thought it might be.
- [24:26]
Matthew Berry
I want to see what happens when the practice report comes out today and if JCM is on the injury report. But if he's not. I like that. Plus 330. Yeah.
- [24:33]
Connor Rogers
Our next wide receiver in a similar range is McLaren DJ Moore against the Vikings on Monday night. Quite a preseason though for DJ Moore. Targeted only 11% of his routes this preseason. Everybody's trying to figure out what this pass catching room is going to look like. Matthew, it feels like you have to play DJ Moore if you draft him.
- [24:48]
Matthew Berry
I mean. Yeah, it just seems silly. Like again, probably more wide receiver three than wide receiver two this week given. Given how good Minnesota is. But look, last year against Minnesota and the defense, as you know, the. I'm sorry, the Bears offense was just a disaster. But he had at least seven receptions in both matchups against the Vikings last year. No team allowed more fantasy points to opposing wide receivers than the Minnesota Vikings last year. So the question with the Vikings, same thing as you just mentioned with the Giants. You know, if the Vikings can get home in that defensive line, then okay. But as we've talked about, no team in the NFL improved their offensive line more this offseason than the Chicago Bears. I do think Caleb Williams will have time to get open and if he's got time, DJ Moore is going to get open. He just. He just is. And so I do think DJ Moore is a worthy start here. The game's in Chicago as well. It'll be interesting to see what J.J. mcCarthy is like on the road at Chicago. That's a really tough place to play for anyone, but especially a rookie quarterback. He's not a rookie, but you know what I mean.
- [25:46]
Connor Rogers
No, essentially is.
- [25:48]
Matthew Berry
Essentially, yeah.
- [25:49]
Connor Rogers
This feels like the overreaction game of the week, right. Where if Caleb Williams and the Bears come out on fire and it's like this is the time for the Bears. If McCarthy struggles or if McCarthy plays well, all the Vikings are going to win over 12 games. You know, it's going to. There's going to be a lot of takes from this game.
- [26:03]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, it's one week. Remind everyone. Think back to, I think it was 2020. Aaron Rodgers gets blown out by the Saints, like 46 or whatever goes on and wins MVP and the packers are the 1 seed. Like one game can be very distracting. But I do think a year ago.
- [26:19]
Matthew Berry
The Saints were 2, 0 and going to the Super Bowl.
- [26:21]
Jay Croucher
Oh yeah, they sold my Saints.
- [26:23]
Matthew Berry
I remember, of course they blew at the Panthers and then they went on the road and blew out what we thought at the time was a really good Dallas defense. And. Yep. And we were all like, oh my, Clint Kubiak, coach of the year, you know, coordinator of the year. And Saints are going to the Super Bowl. Who dat? And then, you know, and we were.
- [26:38]
Jay Croucher
A year early this year, bowl year, for the.
- [26:40]
Matthew Berry
Sure.
- [26:41]
Jay Croucher
I do. Evans or DJ Moore says Lamb Warrior Evans there.
- [26:45]
Matthew Berry
Evans.
- [26:45]
Jay Croucher
Yeah.
- [26:46]
Connor Rogers
I don't think too long about that one.
- [26:47]
Matthew Berry
It's Mike Evans.
- [26:48]
Jay Croucher
Yep. Particularly with Chris Godwin missing, I do think in terms of the Vikings defense, which yes, statistically was One of the 2, 3 best in the NFL last year, the two guys who really solved it were Sean McVay and Ben Johnson. The Lions had great success against them. Now it was the Lions offense, they had success against everyone. But just in terms of his ability to scheme against Flores, he was bringing in extra blocking to disrupt Flores's exotic packages and everything. So I think as well this Vikings defense, which I think will be fine, but a lot on a lot of guys on the wrong side of the aging curve don't really have cornerbacks, which is an issue. So it's going to be a lot of smoke and mirrors and floor is genius. And Ben Johnson has found a way to blow away that smoke.
- [27:27]
Matthew Berry
I could be dead wrong on this, but my take on the preseason usage, especially for Roma Dunze was more about like Ben Johnson saying, like, hey, I got this guy that we use a very first round draft pick. Let me get him going. I'm not worried about DJ Moore. DJ Moore is £ for pound one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, period. He's going to be fine. I ain't worried about him. Let me just try to get Williams to a dunes a going as a connection. But now that we get to the regular season, like he's DJ Moore. Stop it. You know what I mean? Like, and maybe we get more Looks for a dunez A and we'll see what happens with Colston Loveland and how Cole Comet figures in. But I guess I'm not worried. They haven't given me a real reason to worry about DJ Moore yet. Just, there's too long of a track record of him being successful with quarterbacks that are a lot worse than Caleb Williams.
- [28:08]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, I think with DJ Moore as well, we forget he's one of the most underrated players in the NFL. Two years ago, he had almost 1400 receiving yards like Justin Fields at quarterback. Like, I think the thing with DJ Moore is he's never played on a good team. It's not his fault. It's just the situations he's been in. This team has the chance to be the best that he's ever been on. So I think that in a way, I think he's kind of like a lesser version of Nico Collins where Nico Collins hasn't really broke out into the Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase kind of range. I think DJ Moore this year may break out into the Nico Collins range and take that kind of step in perception.
- [28:38]
Connor Rogers
Our last receiver guys is one of the harder ones to figure out. For week one, it's Khalil Shakur against the Ravens. Forget how brutal that matchup is. The Ravens only allowed two touchdowns last year to slot receivers over their final nine games. But he's going to be limited in practice today, Matthew. So he has the ankle injury from the summer. You would imagine he gives it a go to play. But can you trust Khalil Shakir in this matchup?
- [28:59]
Matthew Berry
I don't think so. It's a great matchup, right? Ravens Bill Sunday Night Football right here on NBC. And Peacock, I'm a company man, but just like we don't have a great sense of if. If Khalil Shakur were fully healthy, I might be okay.
- [29:12]
Connor Rogers
Probably have to play him, right?
- [29:14]
Matthew Berry
You have to play him. But I'm going to have, you know, when my rankings come out tomorrow morning on NBCSports.com and Rotorworld.com, like he's going to be a wide receiver five. Like he's going to be. He's going to be like probably like 43rd, you know, I think is what I. Where I initially have him based on projections. I just. Let's see how he does in practice today and what kind of designation he has. But like whether Keon Coleman or Josh Palmer or Dalton Kincaid and just, you know, and of course, Dawson Knox is healthy. We've got the running backs there. Josh Allen In a big game like this against Lamar Jackson, I feel like there's going to be a little bit more superhero stuff with Josh Allen this year. And so at least in a matchup against Lamar on primetime at home, whole thing. So just too many, too many variables for me to want to start Shakir this week. So I'm going to close it out on him. I like him long term this season, but I'm just. I'm nervous until I see what this offense looks like this year.
- [30:07]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, I think everyone loves Khalil Shakir. He's a really good player and he's probably, probably been. He was the most consistent receiver in that offense last year. He also got out produced last year in fantasy by Keenan Allen, so it's not like he set the world a lot. Also looks like with J.R. alexander around, like Marlon Humphrey's gonna play more on the slot. Marlon Humphrey, coming off an incredible season, was one of the best corners in the league last year. So that might be the matchup. Yeah. Also like the Bills, they just don't throw the ball a ton. They're like middle of the pack and pass right over expectation despite having Josh Allen. That's just the offense. They like to run the ball and establish the game that way. So, yeah, Khalil Shakir not super inspired.
- [30:39]
Matthew Berry
You also feel like, by the way, that again, on the road at Buffalo, right? The games, the games in Buffalo that you'd expect Baltimore to lean heavily on Derek Henry. So, I mean, I just think overall it's a slow pace of play game because you've got two games, two teams that are really good at running the ball, two quarterbacks that are good at moving the chains and running the ball themselves. And so just feels like there's probably not a ton of scoring opportunities there. And again, in a week in which you've got no teams on a bye, not that many injuries to deal with here. I'm closing it out on Shakir until I see what this offense looks like.
- [31:10]
Connor Rogers
Clay Latham in the comments, would you start club said over Shakir in ppr?
- [31:15]
Matthew Berry
You know what? You're damn right I would. You're damn right I would. Clay Latham. Look, club set is open. It's open for business. We've talked about this. Joe Flacco with a YOLO against his Cincinnati Bengals defense is a five and a half point dog. Yeah, give me some. Club set over Khalil Shakir. What do you think about that, Connor.
- [31:32]
Connor Rogers
You know me, you don't have to get my sign off. I'll start Club set over Justin Jefferson. See how it goes.
- [31:37]
Matthew Berry
Clip that.
- [31:38]
Connor Rogers
All right, let's recap. Keep it open or close it out here. We started with Drake May at quarterback. He's an open against the Raiders in Week one. Isaiah Pacheco also an open in the Brazil game against the Chargers. Javante Williams at tough Eagles defense is a close. Caleb Johnson against the jets, that is the lowest point total of the week at 38 and a half. He's a close because we don't know what his usage is going to look like on top of it being a low scoring game in projections. Terry McClurn against the Giants, you got to keep it open. D.J. moore, same for him against the Vikings. Keep that open. But Khalil Shakir dealing with the ankle in a tough matchup against Baltimore is a close. Still to come, bold predictions for Nico Collins, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence and many more. Plus, Matthew goes head to head on a Week one touchdown parlay with an NBA superstar. Stay tuned.
- [32:23]
Matthew Berry
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Connor Rogers
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Matthew Berry
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Connor Rogers
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Matthew Berry
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Connor Rogers
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Jay Croucher
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Matthew Berry
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Jay Croucher
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Matthew Berry
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Matthew Berry
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- [34:01]
Jay Croucher
While I'M looking at my list right here.
- [34:02]
Matthew Berry
Matthew, my number one pick for week one. Malik Neighbors, my number one pick. I'm going. Chris McCaffrey, my second pick. And I know, unfortunately, going against my.
- [34:13]
Jay Croucher
Beloved Browns, I'm going with Jamar Chase.
- [34:16]
Connor Rogers
Yeah, he's a flat out stud looking.
- [34:18]
Jay Croucher
At a big game from Jamar Chase.
- [34:20]
Matthew Berry
But in a losing effort, though, I'm going with King Henry. Oh, man. All right, LeBron. Did I just snipe you? You just took my pick, Matthew there.
- [34:29]
Jay Croucher
So I'm gonna make a. I'm gonna.
- [34:30]
Matthew Berry
Make a slight adjustment, and I'm gonna.
- [34:32]
Jay Croucher
Go with a guy who I believe.
- [34:33]
Matthew Berry
Is going to have a huge season. Bucky Irving down there and. And Tampa. No running back. Last year, LeBron had more red zone rushes per game than Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts. I'm going with J.T.
- [34:46]
Jay Croucher
My fourth pick is Jameer Gibbs.
- [34:48]
Matthew Berry
I'm elusive, explosive, shifty, quick, everything. He gives them everything in that backfield. You took Bucky Irving for the Buccaneers. I'm taking the running back that's facing him in that game, Bajan Robinson. So there you go. That is where LeBron James and I, two guys that get mentioned in the same sentence all the time, DraftKings, put us together to do a draft of who's gonna score the most touchdowns this Sunday, week one of the NFL season. King James taking Malik Nabors, Ja' Marr Chase, Bucky Irving, Jameer Gibbs. I took Chris McCaffrey, King Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Bijon Robinson. I went with four running backs. There was no rules in terms of, you know, juice or anything like that. You just sort of who you think gets into the end zone. So LeBron took some longer shots than I did there, but we got together, we did that. You can check out the whole thing on DraftKings, on their social media channels, on mine as well. I have to tell you, it was super cool. It was super cool. And so we did it over the holiday weekend because that was when schedules aligned and everything like that. So I'm on a zoom call and my family were on vacation over the Labor Day weekend. And so we're at this resort where the only place where I could do this was my hotel room. So I'm like. And my daughters are there and I'm like, all right, Beth, girls, you gotta get up and everything like that. Well, no, but, like, in all serious. So, like, as we were setting up, he was there and he popped on a little bit early and he was just like, ah, you know, hey, Matthew, these are your daughters. And so my daughters are there and they're like, lebron, can you say hi? And they're asking him to say hi to their friends and everything. And of course they're recording. And he does. He's great. Like, he's. I don't know if you've ever had a chance to meet him. I've gotten the main contractor all the time. All the time. Do you guys. I've gotten the privilege to meet him a handful of times. He's great. Like, he's just. He's like what you want him to be. And like, he's, he's engaging and awesome and kind and brilliant, obviously. And he's like everything you hope he would be. He's. He's awesome. And so, yeah, I'm like. I'm like, Brian, you literally just made my, my girls year. You know, everything like that. And he's just like, yeah, yeah, let's do this. So anyway, what do you think about the picks there? Just recap real quickly. LeBron went Malik Chase, Bucky Irving, Jameer Gibbs. I went CMC, Derrick Henry, Bijon Robinson, Jonathan Taylor.
- [37:01]
Jay Croucher
He really went out on a limb.
- [37:02]
Connor Rogers
Yeah, I was gonna line with you. I mean, plus 588 though.
- [37:06]
Matthew Berry
It's a four leg parlay. Any four leg parlay.
- [37:09]
Jay Croucher
Malik. Malik. Neighbours may derail. The king would be the one. He's a good chance to get into the end zone, obviously, but that's likely the longest.
- [37:16]
Connor Rogers
Derrick Henry, the longest one.
- [37:18]
Matthew Berry
Yeah. Yeah. I was surprised that he went like immediately. Yeah. Because, yeah, his first pick. I mean, he's going to get a ton of. He's going to get a ton of looks and they're going to be down and throwing. So, you know, you could certainly see it like, if they can, if they scheme him to get up against Marshawn Lattimore just once, like, it's a touchdown. That's fair.
- [37:37]
Connor Rogers
That's the matchup you want.
- [37:38]
Matthew Berry
So we'll see how quickly you turn Lattimore.
- [37:41]
Jay Croucher
Terry McLaurin.
- [37:42]
Matthew Berry
Yeah.
- [37:42]
Connor Rogers
Who next?
- [37:42]
Matthew Berry
Jaden Daniels. Next look all in. I just saw him getting burned left and right in that championship. We could have gone to the Super Bowl. He got a new hamstring.
- [37:49]
Jay Croucher
He got a new hamstring this year.
- [37:50]
Matthew Berry
Year. I know.
- [37:52]
Jay Croucher
Didn't you lose 51, 23?
- [37:53]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, but, but by the way, that game was close for a long time. Like if, if, if, if he doesn't get burned by A.J. brown on that third down play and then have the, the penalty and all Marshawn Ladder has had had among like the worst five minutes I've ever seen in. In an NFC championship game.
- [38:07]
Jay Croucher
To be fair, as soon as he came to the commanders, he just had to play like Mike Evans and A.J.
- [38:11]
Connor Rogers
Brown'S favorite match. All right, so there you go. You could pick what parlay, parley.
- [38:16]
Matthew Berry
I did.
- [38:16]
Connor Rogers
I am, I am telling your parlay.
- [38:18]
Matthew Berry
All right, I'll tell the king just to be a troll. I like his parlay as well. And it's obviously higher odds, but you can, you can go to the DraftKings sportsbook app and you can, you can either bet my Parlay or bet LeBron's as well. And let's see who sort of. Who sort of wins. And you can, you can certainly, by the way, in the comments, do me a favor, just tell me, do you like my parlay or do you like LeBron's? This might be the only chance I have to beat LeBron. Yes. At literally anything. At literally anything.
- [38:45]
Connor Rogers
Yeah, we'll see if LeBron tails your Saints bet since you tailed his four leg parlay, his four ankle parlay.
- [38:51]
Jay Croucher
I like how LeBron completely dismissed Joe Burrow's chances of beating Joe Flacco, which I, as a Browns fan, we talked.
- [38:57]
Matthew Berry
There's a whole interview that we did and we talked sort of NFL preview. And you'll see some of it again. You'll see it like on the, on DraftKings social channels and Maya, whatever. And I think we'll play some clips over the course of the week here as well. But last year, last year, this is public. So last year his sleeper team was the Commanders, which obviously, you know, come off a four win season. Great call by him. And this year he's publicly said his sleeper team is the Browns. So I asked him about that. Obviously he is from Ohio and I asked him how much homerism is this? And like, he talked about why he likes the Browns and so does that include Shador? No, no, it's, it's, it's more about the defense and that he thinks, he thinks, he thinks the defense is really good and that the offense will be competent enough to get them by. And he acknowledges that it's a very tough division, but he's a believer in Stefanski and he's a believer in the defense.
- [39:44]
Connor Rogers
Let's get into our ten bold predictions, Matthew. And I know you want to kick this one off with a quarterback.
- [39:49]
Matthew Berry
Trevor Lawrence finishes As a top 10 fantasy quarterback this year, by the way. Here's why it's bold, by the way. He has never ranked higher than QB 13 in points per game. And he's only done that once, right? In 2022, he's QB11.
- [40:01]
Connor Rogers
Not being drafted even close to this.
- [40:02]
Matthew Berry
He's being drafted like his QB18 as well. But three straight seasons with at least three or more rushing touchdowns since 2022, he's actually top four in the NFL in terms of most rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks. He doesn't get thought of as a mobile quarterback, but he is, he's. He's mobile in the way that a, you know, kind of a Drake May is like they can get you 30, 20, 30 yards a game, I believe. And last season under Liam Cohen, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers top three in passing yards and passing touchdowns, sixth in fantasy points. Liam Cohen, of course, obviously coaching the offense now for the Jaguars. I just think they're going to throw the hell out of the ball. I think that their defense is going to be bad. I think when you've got Brian Thomas Jr. And Travis Hunter, we kind of like Breton Strange. They've got nice pass catching running backs and ETN and Tutin out of the backfield. So I do think Trevor Lawrence, between the rushing and the throwing, it's going to be all volume. But I think he finishes as a top 10 fantasy quarterback. That is my first bold prediction.
- [40:53]
Connor Rogers
What about you, Jay?
- [40:54]
Jay Croucher
I like it. Okay, I'm going to go even bolder. I'm going to say that A.J. brown outscores Saquon Barkley in total fantasy points this year. And the reason why this is bold is that Saquon Barkley outscored him by 140 points last year. So there's a lot of ground to make up. But I think there's a few factors there. One, A.J. brown missed a month of the season, so it's not really a fair reflection. Two, they ran the ball at a rate that just is not going to be replicated because Saquon Barkley is a human being. He's not going to touch the ball almost 500 times again this year, we presume. And then I think we just forget how good AJ Brown is. I think AJ Brown is one of the five most talented receivers in football. He was coming off before last year, two years in a row with Jalen Hurts where He was basically 1500 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. I think he's less of an injury risk than Saquon just because he's not a running back. And I think that they will throw the ball this year more. So put all that in the pot. And I think that there is a material chance that A.J. brown outscores saquon Buckley.
- [41:47]
Matthew Berry
Part of the point of bold predictions isn't to nail the bold prediction, it's just to say, like, hey, here's somebody that I have a strong stance on. And so I agree with you that A.J. brown is being undervalued in drafts and just people are forgetting how good he is. So I like the call. 140 points is a much is a lot to gain. But I like the idea that, yes, we're in on A.J. brown in a big way this year.
- [42:05]
Connor Rogers
Right. Trying to show a pathway of why a player can outperform expectations. And for me, I'm going to start with the rookie in Elikayo Manor on the Titans. Right now he's being taken as the 87th wide receiver in fantasy, aka left four dead. Yeah, I think he finishes as a top 50 wide receiver this year and establishes himself as the number two in Tennessee. Which that might not look pretty or exciting right now, but there's a world where fast forward to a year from now. We're excited about Cam Ward and Calvin Ridley as the number one and an established number two wide receiver in Ellic IO Manor who can catch a couple touchdowns this year. I thought the Titans getting him in the fourth round was an absolute steal. He's listed as a starter on the depth chart, which cannot always mean the most, but I think for him, the kind of camp he had, it means a lot. I think he has a really good rookie season compared to expectations.
- [42:46]
Matthew Berry
He's been one of the hottest pickups over the last week as well. And I like the call. He doesn't have a ton of for a team that's going to throw a lot, he doesn't have a lot of target competition outside of Ridley. Right. You've got chicaconkwo Tyler Lockett in the slot. So I definitely like the call on Ayumanner. Is that how I say it?
- [43:02]
Connor Rogers
Yeah.
- [43:03]
Matthew Berry
AU Manor. All right, there you go. Last names are always a challenge for me. My second bold take here. My second bold prediction. Omarion Hampton, my ride or die leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns. Look obviously like he's plus 4500 on DraftKings to lead the league in rushing touchdowns. So obviously the market thinks that's very bold. But again, like the Chargers, they want to run them when they get in close. They were top six in the NFL last year in terms of most running back carries inside the five yard line and that was with like J.K. dobbins and a mishmash of running backs. Not a first round draft pick in Omarion Hampton, who is just an absolute hammer. By the way, chargers were top 12 in running back rushing touchdowns last year as well. So if they all go to Omarion Hampton with a little bit of luck, yeah, give me Omarion Hampton to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns this year. Very bold. Obviously you see it right there. I mean McCaffrey's at + 2000, Hampton's at + 4500.
- [44:00]
Jay Croucher
Indeed. No, I like it. I like going bold and truly riding with the ride or die. My next bold prediction going to be another unpopular one in the same vein of Saints make the playoffs. The Indianapolis Colts will have a winning record and Josh Downs, Tyler Warren, Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor all outperformed their adp. I'm old enough, Matthew, to remember when Shane Steichen was Tyler Goodson's fingertips away from winning the division two years ago with Gardner Minshew as his quarterback. I think the Anthony Richardson Daniel Jones decision, I think it's less about specifically the quarterbacks and more just it's Shane Steichen betting on himself and betting that Daniel Jones is going to execute his system better than Anthony Richardson can. It's not a commentary on their talent levels and I believe in Shane Steichen. I'll bet on Shane Stock. And I think that this defense is going to be better as well with Luanna Rumo in there. I think it's a bit of a scapegoat in Cincy. Everyone loved the Luanna Romo until last year when he had no talented players outside Trey Hendrickson on their defense or at least a dearth of talent. So I think that the defense is going to be better. I think the offense with Daniel Jones behind a solid offensive line with a lot of weapons, one of the five best running backs in football. I think that the Colts against a pretty easy schedule, they get to 9 and 8. I think all those guys are going to outperform their adp.
- [45:10]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, look, you know we've already talked about Tyler Warren and Josh Downs quite a bit. Not hard for Daniel Jones to outperform his AD because he's not being drafted at all.
- [45:20]
Jay Croucher
28 or 27.
- [45:21]
Matthew Berry
All he has to do is run a little bit. Like as long as he keeps the job. Like if you knew for a fact that Daniel Jones was starting every single game, like he's a very viable QB. 3.
- [45:30]
Connor Rogers
Steichen's good.
- [45:31]
Matthew Berry
Yes.
- [45:31]
Connor Rogers
That's the thing you should feel most promising about is that Steichen is a good play caller.
- [45:35]
Matthew Berry
Yeah. And he's going to get Jones on the move and use his legs as well. I mean, Jones has a top 10 fantasy quarterback season on his resume. And then Jonathan Taylor, he might be the toughest one to outperform adp, but.
- [45:47]
Jay Croucher
He'S just got to stay healthy.
- [45:48]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, but he's got to stay healthy in a little bit of touchdown luck and he's right there. I mean he's, he's also had number one running back in fantasy season on his resume.
- [45:57]
Connor Rogers
Connor Excellence of flexicution says he's taking LeBron's parlay but Matthew's ankles, I like that. So divvying up the pie a little bit. The excellence of flexicution.
- [46:06]
Matthew Berry
I like flexicution as a.
- [46:08]
Connor Rogers
It's a good username.
- [46:09]
Matthew Berry
It's a good username.
- [46:10]
Connor Rogers
Very good username. Guys, my next bold prediction here. DeAndre Swift finishes as a top 12 running back despite being drafted as RB25. What do we always say on the show? If I've seen you do it once before, there's hope you could do it again?
- [46:22]
Matthew Berry
Sure, sure.
- [46:23]
Connor Rogers
20, 21. He was RB8 and it's not like he's fallen off a cliff. He's been since then. RB 15, 24, 21. I think he's a value no matter what at cost. But there's I like Kyle Menungai a lot, but he's the guy in this Bears offense. It's DeAndre Swift. So we've seen what Ben Johnson has done with Jameer Gibbs and David Montgomery. I think Swift is going to catch more passes this year and I think he's going to score more touchdowns and that's his pathway for a top 12 finish.
- [46:48]
Matthew Berry
When when I did my 10 listed 10 column, which is up now on NBCSports.com and order.com I'm a company man. He was on my unsexy players list. Like no one's. No one's getting mad when DeAndre Swift gets drafted. But again, he's a guy like James Conner that's just going to outproduce. He's going to get a lot of work in a good offense with a good offensive line. And so I like the call here with I weirdly think it's not that bold, Connor. Like it's going to come across as bold, but it's actually not because again, he's going to get a lot of work and a decent offense and he's still a reasonably talented player.
- [47:20]
Connor Rogers
He should have the volume to do it. And you believe in the play caller. You just have to hope the Bears are good enough. They take the steps they're supposed to take this year that he has that opportunity from touchdown equity. What's your next one, Matthew?
- [47:31]
Matthew Berry
Nico Collins finishes the number one wide receiver in fantasy football. He's never been higher than wide receiver 7 on a points per game basis. Obviously injuries have also hurt him as well. But in games where he's played at least 60% of the snaps, where he's had basically, you know, a normal full time role over the last two years, he's averaging 18.9 fantasy points per game. He's second in yards per target and third in fantasy points per target. So in an offense that we expect to throw a little bit more this year and with even less target competition, no Tank Nell, no Stefon Diggs. He's got two rookies and Christian Kirk. Like on an offense that I think Stroud will be better this year, I think they're going to be throwing more. And if he can stay healthy and put it all together again. I talked about it. He was my runner up for Ride or Die. Nico Collins is somebody that is as good as CD Lamb is as good as Justin Jefferson. He's just not talked about that way. I do believe he is an alpha wide receiver one in this league.
- [48:22]
Jay Croucher
I agree. And there's variance there because one, you get a new offensive coordinator, you have lack of options at running back to take the ball out of C.J. stroud's head. And the best thing with Naco is that you see he has so much room to just play more. He just play more snaps. He plays less than 70 of the snaps. Like get him up to 80 of the snaps if he can handle it. And then all of a sudden there's just massive production.
- [48:41]
Connor Rogers
He's a beast. There's absolutely a world where he is the top receiver. He stay healthy and just dominate the target share. And he's somebody that he catches the ball even when he's covered.
- [48:48]
Matthew Berry
I love the show.
- [48:49]
Connor Rogers
Collins.
- [48:49]
Jay Croucher
Yep.
- [48:50]
Matthew Berry
Yeah.
- [48:50]
Jay Croucher
Okay, my next prediction. Joe Burrow becomes the first player since Patrick Mahomes in 2018 to throw for 50 passing touchdowns.
- [48:57]
Connor Rogers
I have to, might have to.
- [48:59]
Jay Croucher
You might have to. Here's the thing. Last year he threw for 43 passing touchdowns and he was missing T. Higgins for a chunk of the season. And here's the other thing. In the red zone, Joe Burrow completed less than 50% of his passes inside the. Sorry. In the inside the five, it was less than 50%. He has a lot of meat on the bone in terms of just adding red Zone touchdowns as we see most passing touchdowns in a single season. Payton with 55 and the record in 2013 Tom Brady at first the 50 in that epic 181 season and then Patrick Mahomes his first MVP year in 2018. I think Baro can do it. I think the bar he's coming into the season the healthiest he's ever been. Clearly has the talent and the main thing is just the defense is just going to be bad again. They're just going to have to throw a ton. Also he is a player who's just been immune to weather his entire career cuz I think a lot of it like he's not as dependent on the deep ball throwing like a lot of it is lower a dot which is very stable year to year. So I think Jay Bar is going to have a big season.
- [49:52]
Matthew Berry
Yeah look and there's something to be said for stability right. So same offense, same offense coordinator same same coaching, same head coach, same play caller I should say is the point. Zach Taylor there Higgins and Chase are both in as well. Gasicki is back as well so like all the all the weapons he's had it's just another season. And I'm also encouraged by the fact that he actually played some of the preseason. He is traditionally and the Bengals traditionally have started slow the last couple of years and so I think that was one of the reasons why Burrowing played in the preseason this year. Connor was to try to get him some rep so they don't start slow again and he is going to. He's one of the most talented wide run quarterbacks in the NFL and they are going to throw up to throw it.
- [50:27]
Connor Rogers
That week one loss in New England last year sunk them.
- [50:30]
Matthew Berry
They didn't make the playoffs because of it.
- [50:31]
Jay Croucher
I butchered the stat before so get it right. Joe Barrow had a 48 completion rate on passes inside the 5. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are up around 80% so just like that turning in itself can lead to more say.
- [50:43]
Connor Rogers
Goes to 65 and that's a huge jump. My last player prediction guys and then we will pick super bowl champions Michael Penix right now pocket passer Michael Penix who throws to Drake London his touchdown total passing touchdown total over the year set at 19 and a half. 19 and a half. I'm all over the over. Forget the over. I think he throws 25 touchdowns and can finish as a top 15 quarterback despite not being taken as a top 20.
- [51:04]
Matthew Berry
I like that as a ladder bet. You know bet the over then you know go up go to 25. You know, keep going up as well. Look, they're an offense that is going to need to throw. And to your point, like it may not be massive volume, but he takes so many deep shots. How many times have I said it like you can't stop Ray Ray McLeod. You just hope to contain him. But no, listen, we like Drake London quite a bit. We like Drake London quite a bit. Darnell Mooney is back at practice as well. Hopefully he suits up this Sunday. We'll check that out as come along. Remember fantasy football pregame the debut of this season's fantasy football pregame Sunday morning, 11:00am Eastern. Me, you, Lawrence Jackson, George Savarikis, we will get you set for all of the day's games right here on YouTube in Peacock Sunday morning, 11am Eastern. So we'll see that. But I like the call of Michael Penix. That seems crazy to me that 19 and a half is over.
- [51:54]
Connor Rogers
You got to get to 20 if you're a starting quarterback.
- [51:56]
Jay Croucher
I'd say a bet on health.
- [51:58]
Connor Rogers
Yes, that's exactly what it is. Let's close it out. Our 10th bold prediction. Guys will go around the horn. Super bowl champion. I took the Ravens. Jay, what do you like Green Bay Packers.
- [52:06]
Jay Croucher
Micah Parsons is the most impactful non quarterback in football.
- [52:08]
Matthew Berry
Handle the commanders shock us there. Of course, why not?
- [52:11]
Connor Rogers
All right, we're taking our last break. When we're back, we got offensive Rookie of the year coming your way right after this. But of course. Thursday night, the NFL season kicks off with the historic rival rivalry as the Eagles host the Cowboys NFL kickoff presented by YouTube TV Thursday. That is 7 Eastern time on NBC. And Peacock.
- [52:33]
Matthew Berry
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- [53:35]
Connor Rogers
DraftKings is the official daily fantasy partner of the NFL. And right now, all Pick Six customers can play free for a share of DraftKings. Biggest bag ever. Hit all six picks for your cut of a million dollars or more. Just download the Pick six app and use promo code FFHH for when you sign up. Ride the upside with Pick six. It's time for last call. Let's take a look at Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, courtesy of our friends at Giraffe Kings. Jay, I've heard you. You've cooked up something truly wild with this one. Not even in sight on this board. Or if we made five more boards like this.
- [54:07]
Jay Croucher
Yes. Everyone settle down.
- [54:10]
Matthew Berry
Get Jay on camera because he has to explain his pick here. Yeah. Well, there we go. It's Josh Simmons. Josh Simmons. Yes.
- [54:18]
Jay Croucher
Offensive tackle Josh Simmons is 121 to an offensive Rookie of the Year. Now, no tackle has ever won this award or really come close to winning it, but no tackle has ever been seen as responsible for fixing the greatest quarterback of all time. If Mahomes gets back to MVP level, I think Josh Simmons could be viewed as the most impactful Rookie in the NFL this year. He's 121.
- [54:38]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, exactly. And just again, weak class as well.
- [54:41]
Connor Rogers
He's going to be tweeting a lot of Josh Simmons. I like Travis Hunter. 10 1.
- [54:45]
Matthew Berry
I think he's going to go for.
- [54:46]
Connor Rogers
Over a thousand yards. Don't worry about him playing some defense. Travis Hunter is going to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
- [54:50]
Matthew Berry
I agree with you. Actually, that's my bet. But because you took it, I'll just go another one. Omarion Hampton, Ride or die, obviously. By the way, if he does lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns, you know, and he will win, he will win the award as well. So, anyway, Josh Simmons, like, that's an unbelievable bet. Everyone thinks the Saints winning the division are going to make the terrible. This one's even crazier. All right, Believe it. It's closing time. You don't have to go home, but you can't stay here. I'm in Philadelphia tomorrow. These guys are here. But fantasy football happy hour back tomorrow at noon. For Jay and Connor, I'm Matthew. We'll see you tomorrow. Peace.