Podcast Summary: Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry

Episode: Way, Way, Way Too Early Rankings for 2026
Date: December 31, 2025
Host: Matthew Berry (NBC Sports) with Jay and Connor

Episode Overview

This episode is dedicated to Matthew Berry’s “way, way, way too early” fantasy football rankings for the 2026 season. The hosts dive deep into his Top 50, discussing key players, rankings rationale, the inherent uncertainty of projecting so far in advance, and offer insights on positional trends. They also share their fantasy New Year's resolutions and finish with futures bets for NFL awards and playoff outcomes. The tone, as always, is light, witty, and packed with inside jokes and real insights for diehard fantasy fans.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Challenge of Early Rankings

[04:28]

• Matthew stresses the “unknown” variables: Players’ free agency, possible coaching changes, injuries, rookie class arrivals, and even evolving team philosophies.
• Rankings assume the NFL landscape as it stands now, despite the likelihood of significant changes (“…you have to do these rankings as if the NFL is as it is today. Because...we just don't know...”).

2. The Top 10 Breakdown

Bijan Robinson at #1

[06:57]

• The presence of Tyler Allgeier isn’t a negative, but rather points to the floor for Robinson—he achieved RB2 status while taking fewer than 40% of goal-to-go carries.
• “There's both a floor and a ceiling there to Bijan Robinson...If Algier moves on, which we do expect, sky’s the limit.” — Matthew ([07:56]).

Jonathan Taylor at #5

[08:53]

• Jay and Matthew discuss Taylor’s production amid QB chaos in Indy and note his durability and versatility.
• Jay: “He is a bit more of an injury risk than Bijan Robinson and Jameer Gibbs...that would probably be my concern more than the quarterback.” ([09:10])
• Matthew points out the continuing offensive upgrades in Indy, which provides optimism for Taylor’s floor.

Christian McCaffrey at #7

[15:50]

• McCaffrey’s age (turning 30), usage, and future uncertainty with the 49ers were factored in.
• “History has not been kind to running backs over the age of 30.” — Matthew

JSN (Jackson Smith-Njigba) at #8

[17:34]

• Jay and Matthew debate whether Seattle’s low pass volume is a long-term concern.
• Jay: “I think on a per game basis he and Puka Nakua stand alone...as the two best wide receivers in football.” ([17:59])
• Target share could drop as defenses adjust and new weapons potentially arrive.

James Cook at #10

[23:59]

• Berry notes Cook’s increased workload and red zone usage is sustainable, not a fluke.
• Even if Buffalo acquires another WR1 (A.J. Brown speculated, [26:48]), Cook’s role as an RB1 remains secure.

3. Positional Strategy & Scarcity

Tight End Value: Trey McBride at #12

[28:49]

• McBride’s record-breaking receptions season and positional advantage merit potentially late Round 1 value.
• “He was over 100 points better than the second-best tight end this year...just gives you such a weekly cheat code at a scarce position.” — Matthew

4. Notable Rankings Debates

Malik Nabers (#14) versus Injuries

[30:49]

• High confidence in his talent and the upside with Jackson Dart, seeing him as the clear WR1 for the Giants when healthy.

Saquon Barkley — Falling Out of Favor

[32:21] – [34:10]

• All hosts opt to move on from Barkley in keeper leagues due to workload/age concerns.

Justin Jefferson and QB Play

[35:27]

• Berry is less bullish on JJ without reliable QB play, but expects a rebound: “He’s just had bad touchdown luck. Right? Whether it’s McCarthy overthrowing him...I’m just going to bet on volume and talent...”

George Pickens’ Ideal Situation

[38:01]

• Consensus is his best fantasy future is in Dallas alongside CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott, not as a true #1 elsewhere.
• “He was miscast in Pittsburgh as a number one...now goes to an offense with one of the best deep ball throwers...incredibly accurate…fantasy-friendly.” — Matthew ([39:00])

5. Extended Rankings Takeaways

• Mari(on) Hampton (#21): Huge upside with returning offensive line for the Chargers.
• Chris Olave (#24): Faith in Tyler Schuck at QB, noting their chemistry.
• A.J. Brown (#26): Fantasy value would rise on a new team, especially if traded to Buffalo.
• Josh Allen (#28): Still QB1, but depth at the position makes early-draft investment less critical.
• Travion Henderson (#30): Doesn't need a massive workload to be productive as an RB2/flex, but is limited by committee potential.

6. Fantasy New Year’s Resolutions

[41:39]-[45:34]

• Connor: Bet on the most talented rookies, not just draft capital.
• Jay: Avoid aging RBs coming off huge workloads (except Derrick Henry, “the exception to this rule”).
• Matthew: Wait on QBs—depth and mobility have flattened positional advantage. “Quarterbacks don’t really matter...good players produce regardless of their quarterback.”

7. Futures & Awards Bets

[51:36]

• Jay: Kyle Shanahan for Coach of the Year (+190), especially if 49ers beat Seattle.
• Matthew: Broncos to lose in the conference championship (+280).
• Connor: Rams (+320) to win the NFC—buy the dip while injuries keep their odds lower.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Matthew on Bijan Robinson:
  “You want a guy that, barring assuming no injuries, is going to be a top five fantasy running back...the fact that he's able to be this good with Algier there tells you about the floor. And if Algier moves on...sky’s the limit.” ([07:56])

• Jay on JSN’s Target Share:
  “He’s gone to 100 yards once in the last five games...you’d suspect there’ll be more competition for targets next season.” ([17:59])

• Connor on draft strategy, New Year’s resolutions:
  “My New Year’s resolution for fantasy is just start betting on the most talented rookies and stop getting so tied up in draft position.” ([41:39])

• Jay on RBs with heavy workloads:
  “Wear and tear is largely undefeated, unless you are Derrick Henry, who is the one exception.” ([42:41])

• Matthew on QBs and positional value:
  “I think that there’s so much depth at the position and...good players produce regardless of their quarterback.” ([45:34])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Top-10 Early Rankings Overview & Caveats: [04:28]–[06:35]
• Bijan Robinson vs. Allgeier: [06:57]
• Jonathan Taylor's Outlook & Indy Offense: [08:53]–[14:25]
• Christian McCaffrey, RB Age & Workload: [15:28]–[17:34]
• JSN’s Breakout and Target Worries: [17:59]–[22:35]
• James Cook’s Sustainability in Buffalo: [23:59]–[28:19]
• Tight End Value, Trey McBride: [28:49]
• Debate: Nabers/Hampton/Saquon: [30:49]–[34:10]
• Pickens' Dallas Fit: [38:01]–[39:57]
• New Year’s Resolutions: [41:39]–[45:34]
• Futures and Awards Bets: [51:36]–[53:12]

Conclusion

This episode delivers classic Matthew Berry—data-driven analysis, humor, and blunt takes on the exceedingly early 2026 fantasy rankings. Listeners get an honest look at the challenges of projecting so far ahead, what drives elite fantasy value, why context matters (age, workload, competitive depth), and how to blend talent with opportunity. The show is peppered with inside jokes, “League of Assholes” references, and the kind of detailed positional arguments only the “Happy Hour” crew can provide, making it essential prep for ultra-early fantasy drafters.