← Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry
Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry
Week 1 Love/Hate: Christian McCaffrey, Drake London, Baker Mayfield headline top players
00:52:07
September 4: Matthew (@MatthewBerryTMR), Jay (@croucherJD), and Lawrence (@LordDontLose) go position-by-position on players they love and hate for the opening week of the season, highlighting Chase Brown, James Conner, Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill, David Njoku, Trevor Lawrence and more. The trio also highlight prop bets for A.J. Brown, George Pickens, and Saquon Barkley in Cowboys at Eagles on Thursday night.
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- [00:00]
Matthew Berry
If you're a custodial supervisor at a.
- [00:03]
Lawrence Jackson
Local high school, you know that cleanliness.
- [00:05]
Jay Croucher
Is key and that the best place to get cleaning supplies is from Grainger. Grainger helps you stay fully stocked on.
- [00:11]
Matthew Berry
The products you trust, from paper towels and disinfectants to floor scrubbers.
- [00:16]
Jay Croucher
Plus, you can rely on Grainger for easy reordering, so you never run out.
- [00:20]
Matthew Berry
Of what you need.
- [00:21]
Jay Croucher
Call 1-800-GRAINGER Click grainger.com or just stop by Grainger for the ones who get it done.
- [00:30]
Lawrence Jackson
We know that weeknights are not for.
- [00:32]
Jay Croucher
The week, but are you gonna throw.
- [00:35]
Matthew Berry
In the kitchen towel and order takeout?
- [00:37]
Jay Croucher
No way.
- [00:38]
Matthew Berry
You've got Land O' Lakes butter, a.
- [00:40]
Jay Croucher
Skillet and a plan.
- [00:42]
Matthew Berry
Land O' Lakes. Eat it like you own it.
- [00:46]
Jay Croucher
I wanted to ask about a specific Ricky Ollie Gordon. Just what are your goals for it this season?
- [00:52]
Lawrence Jackson
This smells like a fantasy football question.
- [00:56]
Jay Croucher
Yeah.
- [00:57]
Lawrence Jackson
I may or may not have drafted us.
- [00:59]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, dude, I can appreciate your creative nature. And you know, I think as I'm employed by the National Football League, so.
- [01:10]
Lawrence Jackson
You know, I'm not against fantasy football and I don't mean to, you know.
- [01:15]
Jay Croucher
I apologize to anybody out there who.
- [01:19]
Lawrence Jackson
I'm not helping the team, but yeah.
- [01:23]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, he'll, I know he'll have zero plays or all the plays, zero yards or all the yards or somewhere in between.
- [01:33]
Matthew Berry
Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry.
- [01:40]
Jay Croucher
Welcome to the fantasy football happy hour. Tough Mets lost yesterday to Detroit. So Connor Rodgers is not here, but I'm Jay Croucher. Lawrence Jackson. And then a man standing on top of his ankles in Philadelphia, Matthew Barry on the field of the link. How is it out there, Matthew?
- [01:57]
Matthew Berry
It's lovely, actually. It's warm, it's hot. You can see the sun in my eyes. There are copters going around. They just mowed the grass. It is all set up for the Eagles and Cowboys to get going later tonight. Of course, football night in America kicks everything off earlier an hour before the game on NBC. And Peacock, of course, I'm a company man, but you know what today is? Jay Croucher and Lawrence Jackson. Today is game day. Today is game day, baby. They're going to play football on this field behind me in just a few short hours. So you know what, football fans? We drink for free today. We've made it, baby. We're here. Everyone drinks for free if you're a football fan because today the season starts. Let's freaking go.
- [02:43]
Lawrence Jackson
Shout out. Shout out to the football fans. We are you and you are us. We all love it. NFL is back today, of course, on NBC Sports.
- [02:52]
Jay Croucher
Jay, indeed. And love hate Week one to kick us off leading into Dallas, Philadelphia, we're going to start off with the running backs. And who better to hear from than Kyle Shanahan giving us an update on Christian McCaffrey's health heading into week one. I mean, just having a player like him, I mean, to be the offensive MVP one year and then really miss the whole next year, I mean, was really tough on him, tough on us. And I knew Christian was back. Just once he told me he was healthy. I mean, it's not like we were thinking he wouldn't come back from it. You know, you hope that stuff, the arthritis and everything goes away, which it usually does. And he was telling us that early in the off season, so I felt pretty good about it. And Christian's not a liar, so I didn't think he was. When we saw him early in OTAs, he looked like the guy we've always known and he's continued that. Okay. One of the most trustworthy men in America when it comes to health status is Kyle Shanahan. But Matthew Christian McCaffrey, he headlines the love list.
- [03:53]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, listen, Jay, I have a bunch of stats about Christian McCaffrey. Do you need me to read the stats? You need me to tell you how good he is? Do you need stats? Do you need me to tell you that the three games that he did play last year, he saw 88% of the snaps? Didn't even tell you that he's played 31 games with the 49ers and he's got 31 touchdowns in those games. Didn't even tell you that the Seahawks are bottom 10 receiving yards and yards perception.
- [04:15]
Lawrence Jackson
So.
- [04:15]
Matthew Berry
So it's actually a great matchup for a pass catching running back, especially one as talented as Chris McCaffrey. You don't need me to tell you that. So I'm just going to say CMC is healthy. I have him at running back four this week, but there's a very real possibility that he ends the week as the number one running back in fantasy. And then he gets back out there and reminds everyone, oh yeah, he's that dude. So I'm in on CMC this year. I get it. You can't trust Kyle Shanahan as far as you can throw him. Who, especially when it comes to Chris McCaffrey's health. Fantasy managers have been burned many times before, but I'm in this year and especially this week, he leads my love list. Monster game coming for CMC on Sunday. And I say he gets into the end zone to help me in my touchdown parlay competition with LeBron James.
- [05:00]
Jay Croucher
Okay, one good LeBron James reference. Two would like to see you try and throw Kyle Shanahan. Might put some unwanted strain on those ankles of yours. How are you feeling about Christian McCaffrey?
- [05:11]
Lawrence Jackson
Yeah, I don't think he'll be much on the love list after this because it's going to become so obvious. But I think he has to be here for week one because fantasy managers, some are still concerned about the injuries. But like Matthew said when he was in the game last year, they worked that man. And that's what they're going to do this year again. Remember, look, they lost Deebo Samuel. He was a part of that running game. So CMC is going to be dependent upon more than ever, along with Brock Purdy. So look for CMC to bounce back if he stays healthy.
- [05:42]
Jay Croucher
Yep. No, I like it. I think Christian McCaffrey one of the highest flaws in fantasy. Naturally, we're going to do something a little bit different this year. Well, Lawrence and I are going to give out some of our love picks so Matthew doesn't have a monopoly. But before we get to that, Jonathan Medic 17 comic Havilon, which is very strange thing to say, says from YouTube CMC stats are like berries in the league of a holes. 1.1 Strange Name and poor comment from.
- [06:10]
Lawrence Jackson
How we get that up here.
- [06:11]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, that's amazing.
- [06:13]
Matthew Berry
That guy's awesome. The regulars are awesome. We love the regulars. I miss them here in Philadelphia.
- [06:18]
Jay Croucher
Okay.
- [06:18]
Matthew Berry
All right.
- [06:19]
Jay Croucher
Well, my first guy on the love list, Chase Brown, who was interested to see what his props are going to open up at at DraftKings. He said it's 68 and a half rushing yards, 20 and a half receiving yards, and he's minus 155 to score a touchdown. So basically looking at around 90 scrimmage yards and a 60% chance of a touchdown, this is like RB1 type of projections. And he comes in at number seven in Matthew' running back rankings for week one, which I think is very justified. Now, we don't think of Chase Brown in terms of just name recognition in the same vein as guys like Christian McCaffrey, Derek Henry, even Ashton Genty before he's played a snap. But I think that he is going to rival some of those guys in fantasy and I think it's a fairly favorable matchup against the Browns because one the Bengals five and a half point road favorite, so they should have game script with them and then Secondly, Joe Burrow stats were fine against Cleveland last year, but they weren't high volume at least relative to his other performances because he's got Myles Garrett going up against a very suspect offensive line. So I think they'll lean on Chase Brown both in the run game and in the pass game. And it'll start off what I think will be a season, Matthew, where Chase Brown ultimately ends as a top 10 running back.
- [07:31]
Matthew Berry
Chase Brown was on the preseason love list and I agree with you. This is one of the higher over unders on the slate and their favorites as well. They're five and a half point favorites so you expect them to lean on the run especially in the second half. But I agree with you, like if there's one thing that you know, Cleveland's offense we have question marks about. We'll see what it looks like under Joe Flacco. Comeback player of the year Joe Flacco this year. But we know that defense is legit and Myles Garrett and team are going to come after Joe Burrow. So given the struggles that offensive line I could see quick dump offs to Chase Brown. I could see them wanting to establish the run and so I'm with you. Obviously Chase Brown is a, you know, top seven play for me this week and I when you talk Those lines like 20 and a half receiving yards, that seems low to me on draftkings. I like the over there especially.
- [08:15]
Lawrence Jackson
Yeah, just the opportunity for Chase Brand to continue to show that he's there. Full time running back, no committee there. He'll be spelled a little bit but. And even if the Cleveland Browns with that good defensive front can stop the run again, he's a guy that could, you could dump him off the ball and he could create yards that way. Matthew, I'm with you too. I think that 20 and a half maybe too low. He could probably get that on a single play.
- [08:39]
Jay Croucher
Okay. Our man Johnny Dangerly from YouTube. Chase Brown should be called the Gobbler because he's going to gobble up receptions. I like it. Any kind of nickname that ends with L. I'm a big fan of Gobbler to go with the Chubbler. Multiple Chubblers at this point.
- [08:54]
Matthew Berry
Do you think J. Do you think. Do you think Chase Brown would enjoy being known that somebody wants to nickname him the Gobbler? Do you think any. You think? I, I just, I just don't know that that's the kind of nickname that a lot of guys would.
- [09:08]
Lawrence Jackson
No, I don't think nobody look his last name. Brown too. Imagine being called The Brown Gobbler.
- [09:14]
Matthew Berry
The Brown Gobbler.
- [09:15]
Lawrence Jackson
You don't want to be that.
- [09:18]
Matthew Berry
The Brown Gobbler sounds like, like a, like a rejected Batman villain, right? Who did this? Oh, it's the work of the Brown Gobbler.
- [09:27]
Lawrence Jackson
The Brown Gobbler.
- [09:28]
Matthew Berry
Oh, no. Oh, the Brown Gobbler has struck again. Curses.
- [09:33]
Lawrence Jackson
And Matthew, I know this. You're definitely referring to 1960s Adam West. Batman.
- [09:39]
Matthew Berry
Yeah.
- [09:40]
Lawrence Jackson
When we talk about that. Yeah, yeah.
- [09:42]
Matthew Berry
Actually, you know what? It's, it's, it's not even a Batman villain. It's like a. It's like a Scooby Doo villain. It's, you know, like, Shaggy, this looks like the work of the Brown Gobbler. I'm just. Yeah. This is atrocious. Yeah.
- [09:54]
Lawrence Jackson
It's been created here.
- [09:56]
Matthew Berry
I appreciate the regulars chiming in. I'm going to reject, on Chase Brown's behalf, the nickname the Gobbler or the Brown Gobbler.
- [10:04]
Jay Croucher
Yeah. Speaking of the Gobbler and the Chubbler, by the way, I was excited to see a report that Carolina doesn't want to run tuba dry. Yeah. 20, 25. The Chubbler doesn't want to be dry. We'll check in on his dryness wetness as the season goes on. Matthew. James Conner, a champion dry.
- [10:23]
Matthew Berry
The dry. So hang on. So just, just, just so, you know, like, so we're, we're, we're Dry Chubbler and Brown Gobbler at the, at that portion of the show in case. So Adam Wise, producer Adam Wise, when you're doing the YouTube description later, just. You can mark this. This is the, the, the, the Brown Gobbler and Dry Chubbler part of the conversation. Just go ahead and mark that in the time. Time code.
- [10:49]
Jay Croucher
Yeah.
- [10:49]
Matthew Berry
All right.
- [10:49]
Jay Croucher
James Connor, Matthew, friend of the show, perennially underrated. I feel like we're high as a team. Consens. James Connor is going to outperform ADP every year. And now coming in as almost a seven point favorite in New Orleans. He should have game script on his side.
- [11:05]
Matthew Berry
Not only gamescript on his side, but matchup on his side. Last year, no team in the NFL, Jay. No team in the NFL gave up more rushing touchdowns than the New Orleans Saints. Than your New Orleans Saints. Who dat? Seriously, who dat? Who dat gonna stop James Conner when he gets the ball in close? Because last year James Conner saw 76%. You heard me, 76% of the Cardinals goal to go rushing attempts. That was the sixth highest rate among running backs in the NFL. When they get in close, they like to run. They like to run with James Conner and they're going to be successful against your New Orleans Saints, especially, as you mentioned, as a big, almost a touchdown favorite here against the Saints.
- [11:47]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, it could be tough sledding for my Saints in Week one. Don't love the matchup with Arizona Lawrence. Let's go to my former team, the New York Giants, who actually became my team again. I also actually just before we got on air, I literally did place a wager on the New York Giants to make the playoffs at plus 600, which is not saying they're going to win the division, just make the playoffs, Matthew, at plus 600 on the back of that defense and potentially with a little help from their running back, Tyrone Tracy.
- [12:15]
Lawrence Jackson
Yeah, Tyrone Trazy here. When you talk about him just having that lead role in the Giants offensive backfield. Now, the Giants offensive line leaves a little bit to be desired. We still have to see what's going on there, but he'll have the opportunity against a commander's defense. That was bottom half in run defense last year. Now look, they added Von Miller, they added Javon Kinlaw. But how much we have to see how much that helps in the run game. Like, is Javon Kinlaw better than Jonathan Allen? I don't think so. So you look at their last three games in the playoffs. Now, Tyrone Tracy isn't Bucky Irvin or Saquon Barkley or Giz. But in those three playoff games, they allowed an average of 100 rushing yards per game to the opposing team's leading. So Tyrone Tracy, based on his usage in the preseason, he's going to have some opportunities here against this commander's defense.
- [13:09]
Jay Croucher
Yep. Matthew, the Giants as well, inching towards being only five and a half point dogs against your commanders. Game script isn't going to be so cruel.
- [13:18]
Matthew Berry
No, I don't think so. Their defense is going to keep them in it. I'm a little nervous. Right. And and again, you know the offensive line with Washington, we'll wait to see how good that is. It's a little bit banged up. So I do think Tyrone Tracy, to your point, this is a divisional road game for the Giants. Cam Scatterboo has missed a lot of camp. So what do they want to do? I think there's a chance that Devin Singletary actually gets more run than Scataboo in this game. Just because you're on the road against a tough divisional foe, you're going to want guys that you can trust in the backfield there. And as you mentioned, currently six point underdogs. Maybe it moves to 5.5 but they're going to want to keep it close. They're going to want to try to keep Jaden Daniels off the field. How do you do that? You run the ball. You try to control the clock. So Tyrone Tracy, who's such a good pass catcher in the backfield may not come off the field all that often even if they do get down by a touchdown or more. I do. I like the call by Lawrence here because I do think Tyrone Tracy gets a pretty nice workload in a matchup. That doesn't scare you?
- [14:13]
Jay Croucher
Yep, Tyrone Tracy said it about 13 receiving yards on DraftKings. 12 and a half backed over 58 and a half rushing yards. Question from Apex Fousey. That's our first ever question from Apex Fousey would remember that name. Tyrone Tracy or Travis Hunter? Matthew?
- [14:31]
Matthew Berry
I would go with Travis Hunter. I agree with everything Lawrence just said but I think that Jacksonville Carolina game is going to be a shootout. 46 and a half is the over under. I would take the over there. I think two good offenses with two suspect defenses, Kennedy and I just think. I think first game out Travis, they're going to want to. They're going to want to show off Travis Hunter. I really think that. I think they're going to want to try to get him in the end zone. So I think I've been on board with this. Connor yesterday called him his offensive rookie of the year. That's what he thinks Travis Hunter is. I agreed with that call. So give me Travis Hunter here. I think it's close but Lawrence, I don't know if you agree here but I'd go Hunter if I had this decision.
- [15:10]
Lawrence Jackson
Well, I agree with everything I said before too Matthew, about Tyrone Tracy, but I also agree with you here with Travis Hunter again this over under in this game is 47 and a half. You got Bryce Young who's played well at the end of last season. You got Trevor Lawrence looking to bounce back. He's got Brian Thomas already emerging as one of the best guys and we're talking about Travis Hunter again. They drafted him number two overall. They're getting him the ball. I don't see how he gets less than five catches in this game. So Travis Hunter over Tyrone Tracy for me as well.
- [15:45]
Jay Croucher
Yep, I like it. All right, let's get to some others receiving votes. Matthew, headlined by another offensive rookie of the year candidate in Trebj on Henderson.
- [15:54]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, look we saw this in the preseason just how much they used him, right? 44% of his routes. He was targeted on 44% of his routes in the preseason. Raiders actually struggle against pass catching running backs. They struggle honestly in a lot of different areas. Last year they were the fifth. They gave up the fifth most running back rushes of 20 or more yards. So we know Trayvon Anderson has this big playability. I think Drake May, I think the Raiders, I'm sorry, the Patriots have a big game against the Las Vegas Raiders. How about Jerome Ford in that Cincinnati game where we expect a lot of back and forth, I think Ford's going to be the lead running back here. Cincinnati allowed the third highest catch rate to running backs last season as well. So Ford's going to be out there on all three downs. How about Austin Eckler facing Tyrone Tracy? For all the talk about Jaquori Crosky, Merritt and Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez, Echler is the guy that's the best running back and the veteran. So I think early on in the season they, they, they lean on him. Giants by the way, bottom 10 last year in most receptions, receiving yards allowed, running backs. And how about Jordan Mason? Right? Last year the Bears allowed running back rushing touchdowns at the fourth highest rate. Jordan Mason is going to be the goal line back by an improved Vikings offensive line. So I do believe Jordan Mason gets into the end zone this week and they use Jones more as a pass catcher. Mason first and second down guy this year. So those are the guys others, the others receiving votes on the running back category for week one's Love Hate.
- [17:17]
Jay Croucher
Yep. Jordan Mason is plus 170 to get in the end zone on draftkings. His odds, Aaron Jones is +165. I think Jordan Mason to your point, I think he is actually more likely to score a touchdown because of the goal line work there. And I think as well Kevin o' Connell has spoken about all off season how he wants to run the ball more, how he got away from his identity bit last year and he's backed that up with his actions in terms of fortifying interior offensive line and bringing in Jordan Mason. Let's.
- [17:44]
Matthew Berry
And Jay, by the way, just real quickly think about, just think about that game. Logically the games in Chicago is always a tough place to play. It's J.J. mcCarthy's first start as an NFL player. They're on the road at a divisional rival with JJ McCarthy. What are they going to want to do? They're going to want to run the ball. They're going to want to try to take pressure off McCarthy, try to take the Crowd out of it, try to lower the, you know, slow the pace of play. So I do think Mason gets a pretty nice workload against the Bears on Sunday.
- [18:11]
Jay Croucher
Yep. It's gonna be overreaction city, whatever the result is. And whoever losing quarterback, it's gonna be game over for Ben Johnson or J.J. mcCarthy.
- [18:20]
Lawrence Jackson
Remember, J.J. mcCarthy is still essentially. He is a rookie.
- [18:23]
Jay Croucher
He's a rookie. Yeah, he's a rookie. Okay, let's jump to the hate list. And it saddens me greatly Chubby sadness to see the Chubbler, the original Chubbler, Nick Chubb, headlining the hateless Matthew.
- [18:35]
Matthew Berry
Yeah.
- [18:35]
Jay Croucher
Find yourself.
- [18:36]
Matthew Berry
Well, look, I think we just have some uncertainty about this Texans backfield. Is it going to be Nick Chubb that really gets all the work or will Damian Pierce work in as well? Woody Marks or Dario Gumbawale on third down? Could it be more of a committee here? The last time we saw Nick Chubb, he hasn't looked great. Right. The eight games he returned from knee injury, he had under 60 rushing yards in six of them. I'm sorry, in all eight of them actually. And just, you know, the Rams have pretty good run defense when they're not facing the Eagles. The Rams allowed running back rushing touchdowns at the sixth lowest rate last season. So it's a pretty good run defense. It's a. There's a lot of uncertainty about how this backfield works out. There's not that many injuries in week one. So I just, I'm nervous about Nick Chubb's workload in week one. I want to see it first. I want to see it first and see what that workload looks like. So based on both the matchup and the uncertainty about his work, his, his work, his share of the workload, he makes the hate list this week.
- [19:31]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, I think that makes sense. I don't mind and I don't like to speak about Nick Chubb like this because he is a legend. We hope that he does, you know, fulfill his comeback and really takes control of that role in the Browns backfield. But I do like his longest rush under 11 and a half rushing yards. Lawrence, I'm sure he's going to break one.
- [19:48]
Lawrence Jackson
Well, I don't know the man. What would do. Did he have one of them last year and I ain't even trying. Like you said, we like Nick Chubb when he was heavy, was one of them dudes.
- [19:58]
Jay Croucher
He didn't have a single 20 yard rush last year. So he didn't break it.
- [20:01]
Lawrence Jackson
Yeah. And so that's the reason. Right. That's the reason that prop is so low and it's going to be tough again. What does this Texans line do? Does he do himself? The running game as a whole for the Texans is just a lot to be. There's a lot of questions with that so it makes sense.
- [20:17]
Jay Croucher
Yep. All right, let's jump to your guy on the hate list, Lawrence and that is Bill. Bill Crosby Merritt for Matthews Commanders controversial.
- [20:25]
Lawrence Jackson
Yeah Mr. Bill here. The thing about the thing about Mr. Jacori Cross get married affectionately known to the people on the Internet as Bill. The thing about it and Matthew alluded to it earlier is Austin Eckler, not just Austin Eckler who's kind of being slept on point. You got Chris Rodriguez and even Jeremy McNichols up in there. This is a possible four man committee. Now I'm not, I don't care about him being listed fourth on the depth chart or anything like that, but he was number one on the depth chart Only on the Internet you got a guy in Jeremy McNichols who had 15 and a half percent of this team's running back carries last year. So once you muddy out of that first you got to see what that looks like first. Then you have this Giants defensive front now never mind you the edge rushers who also defend the run and guys like Abdul Carter, Kayvon Thibodeau, you, you got Dexter Lawrence, you got the rookie Darius Alexander who's going to be making plays for them. So that Giants defensive front is going to be tough for any of these commanders running backs. That's why I like Matthew's call for Austin Eckler this week as he could probably be catching a lot of passes. Going to be tough to run for any command running back and that includes Bill who the fantasy managers all around the world love.
- [21:48]
Matthew Berry
Matthew, I agree with this call. I mean you saw I have him ranked outside my top 30. Lawrence, I think his workload initially is in question. And so again like this is week one, pretty much everyone is healthy. You don't have any bias to deal with. So I would be nervous about using Jechore Crosky Merritt this week until we see does he in fact have a significant role in this commander's offense or is it a three headed committee. I don't think we'll see a lot of Jeremy McNichols but I do think you'll see more Chris Rodriguez than you want to if you spent a high draft pick on JCM ultimately long term I like jcm. Echler's going to have his role as well. I think those will be the two commander's running backs you want, but here in week one, I'd rather play it safe. I'd rather see it first before I put him into my lineup unless I'm in a super deep league. So I agree with the call here. Lawrence, despite, despite my love for him as a person and a player.
- [22:40]
Jay Croucher
Okay, question From Michael on YouTube. Do you feel the rookie hype is out of control? RJ Harvey, Bill Marion, Hampton, Are you going to suspect that Matthew's going to say it's not out of control, all potentially in timeshares?
- [22:53]
Matthew Berry
Matthew yeah, I don't think it's out of control. I mean, I do think on some of these it is, I guess I should say, like I don't think it's out of control on Omarion Hampton because I'm the one leading that charge, right? I mean, he's my ride or die and I don't really think he's going to be in a legit timeshare. I don't think it's going to be 50, 50 Hampton and Najee Harris. I think it's going to be 70, 30. Maybe it's 65, 35. But Hampton is so explosive and the Hampton argument wasn't about that. He dominates touches in Week one. The Hampton argument is that he is the superior running back and over the second half of the year he's going to take this backfield over the way that Bucky Irving did last year in Tampa Bay. Obviously they're different players, but I think it's going to be a similar situation. But yes, on Jakory Crosky, merit, I'm with you. You just heard Lawrence and I talk about him and RJ Harvey. I'm not the one leading that hype train we have. This show has been very consistent that JK Dobbins is the better value in drafts that JK Dobbins, who's going two, three, sometimes four rounds after RJ Harvey is the starting running back of the Denver Broncos, will get the work on first and second down in the short yardage work. And maybe they use Harvey in the passing game. But Harvey has had has struggled with pass protection this preseason. If you can't block, you don't get on the field in a Sean Payton offense. So don't be shocked. Don't be. I'm not saying this is definitely going to happen, but I wouldn't be shocked if Jaleel McLaughlin even plays more snaps than RJ Harvey, depending on how the game script goes for Denver, because I know they do trust McLaughlin in pass protection on third down.
- [24:18]
Jay Croucher
Yep. No, I'm with you there. I think there is a material chance that J.K. dobbins just our producers. RJ Harvey, full stop, irrespective of ADP. J.K. dolman he was good last year before he did his MCL against the Ravens last year he was on pace like 1200 rushing yards and 1012 touchdowns.
- [24:33]
Lawrence Jackson
Top 15 running back now.
- [24:34]
Jay Croucher
He's got an even better offensive line this year in Denver. My guy for the hate list and we've talked about him a fair bit in the preseason is James Cook. The obvious reason is just the touchdown regression is going to inevitably, well, not inevitably very likely hit him. He had 18 total touchdowns in the regular season last year. I suspect that the median outcome for that is more like half. And he has a brutal matchup against the Ravens in week one. Lawrence the Ravens by success rate last year, they're the best rushing defense in the NFL. And James Cook played them twice last year. First time nine for 39 and that blowout loss in the regular season, then even the playoff game. He got 17 carries but only took them for 67 yards and no touchdowns.
- [25:17]
Lawrence Jackson
And just to drive your point home, we know the Denver Broncos, their top tier defense in this league. He had a good game against them in the playoffs. He had a good game over 80 yards rushing against the Chiefs in the playoffs, 120 against the Broncos in the playoffs. So he's ran well against, you know, good teams. But this Ravens defense, no. And it's been recent. His last two. I'm sorry, his last game against the Ravens has to be. Well, it's going to be a tough matchup for Jimmy.
- [25:47]
Jay Croucher
Yep. Set at 53 and a half rushing yards on DraftKings. Let's jump to pass catches. Matthew, headlined by Drake London, who we heard from on the matchup with Tampa Bay in Week one. That's all we're focused on right now is Week one.
- [26:05]
Matthew Berry
Really.
- [26:05]
Lawrence Jackson
Tampa Bay getting after it, game planning.
- [26:08]
Jay Croucher
And yeah, like I just said, getting after it, adjusting with everybody who's here and doing well.
- [26:15]
Matthew Berry
And you know, they won four straight division titles. You know, how are you all seeing the NFC south as we get ready.
- [26:22]
Jay Croucher
To get back to football here?
- [26:24]
Lawrence Jackson
Yeah, our goal is to win every.
- [26:25]
Jay Croucher
Game and they so happen to be.
- [26:27]
Lawrence Jackson
One of our rivals right there, our division rivals. So you go over there, handle business.
- [26:32]
Jay Croucher
And that's week one knocked off and that's our goal right now. J. Matthew Kirk Cousins didn't have a great year last year. But he had a great year against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The most receptions allowed to wide receivers. Last season, The Bucks allowed 231 receptions to wideouts. And a lot of them were to Atlanta Falcons in those two matchups. And Drake London headlines the love list for you.
- [27:01]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, I'm as a. I'm a type. I'm as a. Top nine play this week. Detective Drake London. Detective Drake London is the guy that should be on the case of the, of the, the brown Guggler. What was it? Guzzler.
- [27:13]
Lawrence Jackson
The Brown Gobbler.
- [27:15]
Matthew Berry
That's a brown Gobbler.
- [27:16]
Jay Croucher
Guzzler. Definitely not.
- [27:20]
Lawrence Jackson
Definitely not. Guzzler.
- [27:22]
Jay Croucher
Get a grip, Matthew.
- [27:24]
Matthew Berry
Guzzler. Similar to Gobbler. But either way, Detective Drake London would solve that case while scoring touchdowns, which is what I think he does against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I think this game is a shootout. You mentioned it, Jay. It is a secondary that it struggled last year. I don't know that they improved enough this offseason to be able to stop Detective Drake London, who we like. They put him in the slot. They give him those easy catches they manufacture. You know, they find ways to get the ball in his hands as well. Think about last year, three starts. I know it's a small sample size, but at least a 30% target share in all three of Michael Penix's starts last season as well. So yeah, I think Drake London has a big game in what should be a high scoring affair between the Buccaneers and the Falcons. He's a top nine play for me this week.
- [28:05]
Jay Croucher
The big game for your Falcons, Lawrence. You're getting the Bucks with no Tristan Wurfs, no Chris Godwin. The Falcons are one and a half point dogs at home pushing towards two. You need to win this game if you want to win the division.
- [28:15]
Lawrence Jackson
I think if you, if the Falcons are serious about, you know, taking that next step and contending for the division title, you go get this win. You're not that much of a dog in this game. You should be going out and winning this game.
- [28:27]
Jay Croucher
Yep. Okay. My first guy on the love list is Cooper Cup. My big, big Cooper Cup. And the angle here in a matchup against the 49ers had a pretty suspect defense last year, which I think is going to be at least has the upside to be better this year though. They're relying on a lot of young guys. The angle here is that Sam Donald is set at 204 and a half passing yards on DraftKings. Now JSN is projected for about 60 receiving yards. It's like where are the other 145 yards coming from if not Cooper cup, who's only set at 39 and a half. I think Cooper cup has been written off a little bit prematurely. The thought is, is that he's just washed and he's entered like Adam Thielen isn't washed, but he's like entered the Adam Thielen phase of his career. I think he has a bit more to give where I think he can be healthier. He had some massive games last year. Lawrence, think back to the Bills game towards the end of the season. Think back to the start of the year as well before he got hurt. So I think Cooper cup, who 2021 is a fair way in the rearview mirror. But 2022, he was the number one player in terms of points per game before he got hurt. But I think that he still has flashes on. I think he can still be a guy who puts up 55 receiving yards again.
- [29:34]
Lawrence Jackson
I think the thing with Cooper cup leaving the Rams was all about an opportunity to have you kind of upgrade that other wide receiver position with Devonte Adams. But Cooper cup, his thing will be can he still get that elite separation that helped him to that 2021 season. His thing's always been injuries these past few years. But if he could still get that because we know he's not a burner, but he runs his routes to where he could get that separ. If he could create that, he's going to be that reception hog that we're used to.
- [30:05]
Jay Croucher
Yep. Okay. Matthew. Xavier Worthy. This is a big Friday night for Xavier Worthy. Obviously no Rasheed Rice until week seven. So Worthy is going to be the guy in this Kansas City pass game. And you like the matchup against the Chargers?
- [30:19]
Matthew Berry
I love the matchup against the Chargers. Last year no team allowed more touchdowns on deep passes than your Los Angeles Chargers of Anaheim. You know, the, the fact is that they're going to take deep shots to Xavier Worthy. At least five receptions for Xavier Worthy in his last eight full healthy game, including the playoffs. No Rasheed Rice, he's suspended. No Jalen Royals. He's got a banged up knee. Yes, we've got Hollywood Brown there and Travis Kelce, but we've talked about this. Patrick Mahomes goes scorched earth and I think it starts on Friday night in Brazil. So I think Xavier Worthy has just a huge game here. Again, he's somebody that gets a big target share. They're going to take deep shots and that's where the Chargers struggle specifically. So yeah, Give me Xavier Worthy, who this week I have as a top 12 play. I was an wide receiver one this week. Jay Croucher.
- [31:06]
Jay Croucher
Yeah. It's also little things. Remember last year's game in Brazil between the Eagles and the packers and it's how choppy that field was and how guys just kept on slipping over safety, slipping over jaden Reed, taking 70 yard touchdowns to the house slip on this dude. Yeah, that could work in Xavier Worthy's favor. A guy used to catch deep touchdown passes for Patrick Mahomes Lawrence is Tyreek Hill. Who is your guy for the love list?
- [31:28]
Lawrence Jackson
Yeah, I'm gonna go look. It's week one. Tyreek Hill has become Mr. Week One ever since he's become a Miami Dolphin and linked up with two of their his week one averages the past three years. Jay 13 targets eight and a half receptions in 146 receiving yards per game. Bloated by 215 receiving yards out in 2023, but still no less than 94 yards in week one since becoming a Dolphin now, the Colts have done well in adding to that. Defensive back end Cam Bynum, Chaverius Ward, those are big signings for their defensive backfield. And for what it's worth, they have the former Dolphin and Xavier Howard who could play a lot in week one. But this game we talked about the Panthers and the Jaguars being the shootout. This Dolphins colts game is 47 and a half. That's the over under. And for a game with where the quarterback on the other side is Daniel Jones and we're talking about a Miami team, people feel like they won't be as good. That's a high number. Jason. I expect things to get, get real high volume. And Tyree Hill, look, he did it last year right after he got out some handcuffs, came and dropped over 100 receiving yards. So. So week one Tyreek and I think he bounces back this year. But week one Tyreek is ready to roll.
- [32:52]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, I like the call. I like the call. Especially, you know, games in Indianapolis, they're playing on the, they're playing on the turf there where, you know, Tyreek's speed can come into play there. He's fully healthy at the moment. I think after last year and all the drama and the off season and the. Is he, is he going to demand to be traded? I think they want to get him involved and Tua, also healthy, wants to get him involved. So. I mean the Colts don't have anyone that can keep up with Tyreek Hill. I like the call here.
- [33:20]
Jay Croucher
Okay, last guy on the Love list. Matthew, before we get to some others receiving votes, the man who inspired your leather daddy outfit, David Njoku himself, pairing back up with the great Joe Flacco.
- [33:34]
Matthew Berry
Yes. Yes. I don't know if you remember this, Joe Jay. I'm sorry, but the.
- [33:38]
Jay Croucher
Don't ever call me Joe.
- [33:39]
Matthew Berry
No, I. But the year that Joe Flacco won Comeback Player of the Year was two years ago. He started five games, five magical games for the Cleveland Browns. That was all he needed to win comeback Player of the Year over a guy that came back from the dead. But that's how good those five games were. That's how good those five games were.
- [33:57]
Lawrence Jackson
Here, Joe Flacco, take this 7:3 team and go win comeback Player of the Year.
- [34:02]
Matthew Berry
Exactly. Those five games were so magical. And I have to believe that the people that voted for Joe Flacco to be Comeback Player of the year, among the things they looked at during those five games was the amazing work that David and Joko did with David and Joku did with Flacco under Center. Averaging 18.2 fantasy points per game with Joe Flacco as his quarterback, Ivan Joko as a tight end. Four this week, Ivan is a top five play as well. Last year, the Cincinnati Bengals gave up the second most receptions and fantasy points to opposing tight ends. We've already talked about how the over under in this game is one of the highest on the slate. The. The Browns are five and a half point dogs here. They're going to be throwing. They're gonna be throwing a lot, taking advantage of this bad Bengals defense. And David Njoku is somebody that's going to benefit again. I have as a top four play this week.
- [34:48]
Jay Croucher
Okay. I'm just going to repeat it again for anyone who missed. Who. Anyone who missed last time I said this, Joe Flacco winning that award was so reprehensible that the Associated Press literally changed the rules so that he could not, in cases like him, could never win again. All right, let's get to some other.
- [35:04]
Matthew Berry
They'll never take it away from him for the rest of your life. Jay Croucher. He is Joe Flacco comeback Player of the Year.
- [35:13]
Jay Croucher
Indeed. Okay, let's get to some others receiving votes, headlined by Teteroa McMillan looking like the clear wide receiver one for an improved Bryce Young. Matthew.
- [35:23]
Matthew Berry
Yeah. And we've talked about this game a little bit. Like I think this game is a sneaky shootout between the Jaguars and the Carolina Panthers. And T. Mac, as he is known to. Well, I guess me, but no Tedro McMillan. Right. Like you know, in the preseason got a 50 target share from Bryce Young. And so the Jaguars who allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers last year should be easy pickings. I have McMillan as a top 20 play this week. How about Ameca Abuka we've talked about this Falcons Buccaneers game is another game to target as well. Atlanta allowed the most touchdowns to wide receivers last season. No Jalen McMillan, no Chris Godwin. A Mecca Abuka should have a nice game against Lawrence's Birds. How about Matthew Golden Against Detroit last season the Lions allowed the third most receptions and yards on deep passes. Now I know they're a little bit healthier on defense but Jaden Reed reportingly reportedly playing through a Jones fracture. We know Christian Watson's banged up. Matthew Golden I think is their number one wide receiver from the get go. They're gonna have to throw against the Lions. I think Debo, I think they get him to, I think you know, again game, first game, Terry McLaurin missed a lot of camp. Does he play a full complement of snaps? We don't know. But Debo Samuel should get some. Some nice work here against the Giants. Remember that last year the commanders ran the second most wide receiver screens and of course Debo Samuel is just a yards after catch machine. Like they're going to manufacture touches for Debo. Also given the uncertainty in the backfield, watch Devo Samuel get some carries in this one against the G men. And finally Kate Otten. We talked about Emeka Abuca. Well Kate Otten is healthy going against those Falcons as well. I think he'll have an expanded role with Godwin Mullen banged up and last year when he saw at least 15% of the targets, he averaged over 13 fantasy points per game. So I do think if you're looking for a tight end streamer this week.
- [37:08]
Jay Croucher
Give me the Cade man question From John on YouTube. Kyron Williams vs Houston or Emeka Igbuka vs Atlanta for PPR suspect Matthew, you'll go with Kyron Williams.
- [37:21]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, I mean listen, I think the Houston Texans defense is really really good and you just heard me talk up a Mecca Buka but he's the lead running back. Who's more likely to score a touchdown? It's Kyron Williams. Like I just, I think sometimes we in fantasy football Jay get too cute. We overthink things. Kyron Williams is the starting running back that's going to get 18 to 22 touches on a good offense. Like you're starting Kyron Williams. Yep, that would be my take.
- [37:46]
Jay Croucher
I agree there okay, let's jump to the hate list. Matthew, we've spoken about the Brown Gobbler, Guzzler, Guggler, whatever else you said. How about the Riddler, Calvin Ridley, who goes up against the best cornerback in the NFL and Patrick Sutton in a very difficult matchup for the Titans.
- [38:05]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, I mean that's it, right? I mean it's literally. It's just he's being matched up with certain and the as part of the best defense in the NFL. The game's at Denver as well, which you don't love that as well. The Titans have the lowest implied team total in week number one. No team allowed fewer touchdowns to opposing wide receivers last year than the Denver Broncos as well. So is he the Baby Blue Riddler? Maybe. Because that's sort of the Titans color kind of like that. Right? Aren't they like baby blue, powder blue? What color would you say the Titans are?
- [38:35]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, some form of blue. I don't know if Baby Blue Riddler was blue. Blue Riddler.
- [38:40]
Lawrence Jackson
Baby Blue Riddler.
- [38:41]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, that's what I'm saying. That's why I like it. The Baby Blue Riddler. Yeah. No, it's a terrible nickname. This is why it should stick. The Baby Blue Riddler makes my hate list. He's out. I think Calvin Ridley has a great year this year and I'm a ton of teams but I think he struggles in week one. He's outside my top 30. The baby blue Riddler will be a puzzling start on Sunday. God bless. Chef's kiss. There you go.
- [39:05]
Jay Croucher
How are you feeling about Calvin Ridley for this week?
- [39:08]
Lawrence Jackson
Going to be tough. Not only just because he's going against Pat Certain because every cornerback gets beat, but you got Cam Ward, who is great, but his first game at Denver, one of the top three defense, like real life defenses, it's just going to be interesting. It's going to be hard. They're going to have to just figure things out. So if you have Calvin Ridley, I'll say this. A lot of fantasy teams drafted him as probably their wide receiver. Three maybe wires you. So you probably have to start. You just have to temper the expectations for the overall scope of the Titans offense.
- [39:47]
Jay Croucher
Yeah. Another thing too is that even if Cam Ward is good this year, which I think that he probably will be, like these rookie quarterbacks have struggled in week one. Jayn Daniels lost to the Bucks in week one last year. Bo Nicks had a tough start to his career. Even CJ Stroud really struggled against the Ravens in his first game for that awesome rookie season. Who is your receiver on the hate list? Lawrence?
- [40:08]
Lawrence Jackson
I'm going to go with Garrett Wilson. Another guy like Matthew said he thinks Ridley has a great year. I don't know that Wilson will have a great year. That's like 1500 yards. But I do think he could have a career year with Justin Fields, just like DJ Moore did a couple years back. The thing about it is we're talking about the jets versus the Steelers. What two teams want to win by running the ball more than these two teams. And when they're playing together, it clearly shows in the over under 38 and a half on DraftKings there. That is easily the lowest out of every game this weekend. So I just don't like the match. And then you look at the fact that the Steelers brought in Jalen Ramsey and Darius Slade. Now they may not be what they once were, but collectively as a group, you put them with Juan Thornhill, who they also brought in with Jerry Porter. That's a tough defensive backfield to deal with. And then your quarterbacks dealing with T.J. watts. So I think Garrett Wilson will go on to have a solid season. Justin Fields will be able to keep him up in fantasy, but this week is going to be tough.
- [41:14]
Jay Croucher
Yep. I'll add Gary Wilson's brief teammate from last year to the hate list. Devontae Adams. Think just very difficult matchup up against the Texans, who I think may have the best defense in football this year. Matthew Stafford with the back going up against Will Anderson. Daniel Hunter, not ideal. Devontae is set 20 yards lower than Pukinakua this week. Matthew. Which I believe is correct.
- [41:37]
Matthew Berry
Yeah. And you know what? They, they just haven't played that much together. Stafford and Adams as well. So it's a bold call. I will say that if. And this is important about the hate list, about the love hate list. Right. Which is just that like just because it just you're lowering expectations, you're not saying bench Devonte Adams if you have him in a league. We're just saying I would lower expectations for Adams this week. And I agree with that call.
- [42:00]
Jay Croucher
Indeed, raise expectations for tonight. The NFL season kicks off with a historic rivalry as the Eagles host the Cowboys. NFL kickoff, presented by YouTube TV Thursday tonight, 7 Eastern on NBC. And Peacock love hate quarterbacks. Coming up next.
- [42:23]
Matthew Berry
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Jay Croucher
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Lawrence Jackson
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Matthew Berry
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- [45:04]
Lawrence Jackson
The fact.
- [45:05]
Matthew Berry
That it's Atlanta and week one a.
- [45:06]
Lawrence Jackson
Team that swept you last year, like.
- [45:08]
Jay Croucher
How much was how much are you thinking about that over the summer. I mean, to be honest with you, you always, for me at least, always think about the last loss since that was Washington.
- [45:18]
Lawrence Jackson
Then you hit the reset button and.
- [45:19]
Jay Croucher
Start looking forward to what type of team you have and trying to take it one day at a time. And then, yeah, once you start game planning, really not thinking about it too much until you start game planning, because you can't get ahead of yourself in this league. But yeah, obviously Atlanta got us twice, but nothing carries over whether it was their wins against us or how good we were on offense.
- [45:38]
Matthew Berry
None of that matters.
- [45:39]
Jay Croucher
It's a clean slate for everybody. So we're looking forward to opening up on the road with the divisional opponents. And that's, that's really all that matters is how do we find a way to win? Okay, The Bake Show. Baker Mayfield, friend of the show. Coming off an awesome 41 passing touchdown season. So you look at the most fancy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. The Atlanta Falcons were fourth on the list, allowing 20 points per game to opposing QBs. And that is a big reason why Matthew Baker Mayfield headlines the lovely list. The Q base.
- [46:11]
Matthew Berry
Well, for sure, we expect, you know, you see there that last year The Falcons allowed 20 points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Well, in the two games against the Falcons last year, Baker Mayfield actually exceeded that average. He averaged 22.9 fantasy points per game. He had six touchdowns in those two games as well. Again, we've talked about this. We expect fantasy points galore. We expect a lot of fireworks in this game between the Falcons and the Buccaneers. Two really good offenses, two defense, that, that aren't awful, but like, aren't elite, at least at this stage of the season. So Baker Mayfield, to me, I'm a QB6 this week. I think it's a big game. We'll see how well they run the ball. But I think, you know, as we've talked about Evans and Abuka, Kate Otten, Baker should have a big game. It's worth noting that they have an implied team total of 24 points, so we're expecting at least three touchdowns for Tampa Bay.
- [47:01]
Jay Croucher
Yep, I'm with you there. Okay. My guy for the love list, Daniel Jones, my third quarterback in the league of assholes. For better or worse. I think Daniel Jones has become kind of the poster boy for the discrepancy between real life and fantasy value. It's like it doesn't. He doesn't have to be a top 12 quarterback in the NFL to provide fantasy value. Like Bo Nix is going as QB7. I think anyone thinks Bo Nix is a top seven quarterback at the moment. But Daniel Jones, he's one of the few quarterbacks who is set in the market for over 20 rushing yards and that just adds a lot of value. And I think going up against a Miami secondary that has been just decimated by injury, Daniel Jones has got, I think, the best weapons of his career, the best offensive line of his career, perhaps the best play caller of his career. And Shane Steichen as well. I like the matchup here against Miami.
- [47:48]
Lawrence Jackson
Yeah, it's an opportunity for him. Again, you talk about that 20 yard rushing over, under, that's he's going to run the ball like that's what he does sometimes after the first read. But you talk about that defensive backfield that where the only really known name is Minka Fitzpatrick. They got him back. But Daniel Jones, man. Yeah. Week one at the. @ the crib.
- [48:12]
Jay Croucher
Yep. All right, next up on the love list, Matthew T. Law, which never really accepted as a nickname, but Trevor Lawrence gets a very favorable matchup against one of what we think will be one of the worst defenses in the NFL and Carolina.
- [48:25]
Matthew Berry
Yeah, for sure. We've talked about this game a decent amount as well, that I think this has sneaky shootout potential. Last year, the Panthers allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. They also gave up the second most, I'm sorry, the highest completion percentage on deep passes. Like you can throw deep on the Carolina Panthers. And then you think about a team that's got Travis Hunter on one side and Brian Thomas Jr. On the other. They're going to take some deep shots here with Trevor Lawrence. Much like Daniel Jones, Lawrence underrated in terms of the amount that he uses his legs. He'll get you 20 to 30 rushing yards a game as well. So you see it right there. I have Trevor Lawrence as a top nine play this week. He makes the loveless. He's a QB one for me this week. Give me T Law. Give me the hair. I'm jealous of his hair. I'm jealous of his legs. I'm happy to have him on a number of fantasy teams this season.
- [49:11]
Jay Croucher
Okay, other side of that matchup. Lawrence, Bryce Young. The rejuvenated Bryce Young coming off a great finish last year.
- [49:17]
Lawrence Jackson
Yeah, great. Second half of the season, 20 total touchdowns up against only eight turnovers in his final 10 games last year. Look, that included games against the Eagles and the Chiefs. And they didn't lose those games because of Bryce Young. They were in the game because of Bryce Young. Right. Last year, weeks 10 through 18 he was quarterback 11 so that's a long stretch. That's not just some small sample size. Then you look at the fact they're going up against this Jacksonville Jaguars defense. That's probably why this over under sit at 47.5 Jaguars defense last year the fourth worst pass defense. Now they went to correct that problem and they drafted the best DB in the draft, Travis Hunter. The problem is he's listed on the depth chart as a backup corner whereas he's a starter on offense. So whenever Travis Hunter is not on that field, the Carolina Panthers are loving it and they will take advantage of that. Furthermore, he's got Tedaro and McMillan. So I love Bryce Young this week.
- [50:17]
Jay Croucher
Yep, going to be a good fantasy season for Bryce Young. Let's get to the others receiving votes. Matthew headlined by Drake Maeve People may not realize this but the Patriots their win total is 8 and a half minus 110 each side. So the market expects this team is going to be good. And you think Drake May is going to be good from the get go?
- [50:32]
Matthew Berry
I think Mike Vrabel is a great coach and I think Josh McDaniels is a very good offensive coordinator. And what's he going to do? I think he's going to get Drake May on the move using his legs. He didn't have a lot of design runs last year, but in the 10 games in which he played at least 75% of the snaps he averaged averaged 36 rushing yards. Again, that was like very little designed runs. They'll use them even more on that last season the Raiders bottom five in terms of most touchdown passes allowed. So I think with an improved supporting cast around him, adding Stefon Diggs, Traven Henderson to the backfield, Kayshawn Booty and Kyle Williams, we'll see what else happens there. But I do think Drake May has a big game. So you see it there on your screen. He's my QB11 and comeback player of the year Joe Flacco, an 11 star in 11 starts over the last two years. He's averaging over 38 pass attempts for games like he will fling it. He's thrown multiple touchdown passes and 82% of those games like he throws it. He throws a lot. There'll be a pick or two, but given how bad the defense is for Cincinnati and the fact that they're going to be five and a half point underdogs, Flacco should throw it and I think he's a viable streamer this week.
- [51:32]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, what's going on?
- [51:33]
Lawrence Jackson
The style you're about to get blown away, ain't you?
- [51:35]
Matthew Berry
My hair is blowing. It's here.
- [51:40]
Jay Croucher
Feels like Bain is about to blow up.
- [51:41]
Lawrence Jackson
The link right Stone behind War running that kicker.
- [51:46]
Jay Croucher
Let's, let's quickly Rice through the height list. J.J. mcCarthy. Matthew.
- [51:49]
Matthew Berry
Yeah. On the road at Chicago. Always a tough place to play making your first start. We talked about it sort of with Jason Jordan Mason but last year the Bears gave him touchdown passes at the third lowest rate. I think it's a run heavy script for the Vikings. Don't love him making his first start at Soldier Field.
- [52:03]
Jay Croucher
Okay, Lawrence few Matthew Stafford with the bad back. Yeah.
- [52:06]
Lawrence Jackson
Much of what you said earlier about this Houston Texans defense, that pass rush with Danielle Hunter, then you got oh my God, Will Anderson. But the db. I'm drawing Derek Stingley. That's going to be tough. But look Matthew stafford himself quarterback 28 weeks 1 through 17 and fantasy points per game last season. So didn't have a great season last year. Going to be tough. Get the Texas.
- [52:29]
Jay Croucher
Yep. I'll put my man Brock Purdy on the hate list. Much to my chagrin, the calendar is not yet ticked over to Brocktober. And I think that Brock Purdy will struggle a little bit against Mike McDonald's defense, which famously got really in his head on Christmas a couple of years ago when McDonnell was the Ravens, they say. I think there's a good chance that the Seahawks are a top five defense this year and Purdy's pass catch is not fully up to speed. Perhaps not fully healthy yet either. So I think Brock Purdy's going to have a great year, but a tough week one in Seattle on the road. Okay, we're gonna hit our last break coming up. Last call. Our best bets for tonight's game in Philadelphia. I don't mean to interrupt your meal, but I love Geico's fast and friendly claim service.
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Lawrence Jackson
Well, that's how Geico gets 97% customer satisfaction.
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Jay Croucher
Yeah, I'll let you get back to your food.
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Matthew Berry
So are you just gonna watch me eat?
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Jay Croucher
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Matthew Berry
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Jay Croucher
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- [53:39]
Matthew Berry
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- [54:04]
Jay Croucher
Daily fantasy partner of the NFL and right now all Pick Six customers can play free for a share of DraftKings biggest bag ever hit all six picks be a cut of $1,000,000 or more. Just download the Pick Six app and use promo code FFHH when you sign up. Ride the upside with Pick Six SL Last Call. Let's take a look at DraftKings most bet props for Dallas Philadelphia no surprise. Saquon Barkley rushing 100 plus rushing yards plus 106. That is the number one most bet prop, followed by an assortment of bets on Jalen Hurts, CD Lamb and Dak Prescott. For my best bet, Lawrence, I'm going to take AJ Brown who still somehow was over underrated. I'm going to take him over 71 and a half receiving yards. I think that his year is going to look lot more like his 2023 than his 2024. I think the Eagles run the ball less than they did last year because they cannot run it possibly anymore and that he lights up a very suspect Dallas secondary. What do you like?
- [54:59]
Lawrence Jackson
Give me George Pickens five receptions at plus 121. I'm going for the value here. To get plus money on CD Lamb, you're going to need eight catches out of him over under in this game. 48. If that Dallas running game don't get going, they're going to have to throw that ball. And we still got questions about Dallas run game.
- [55:17]
Jay Croucher
Yep. What do you like Matthew Yeah, listen.
- [55:19]
Matthew Berry
I agree with you Jay. I think they're going to throw more which is one of the reasons why I'm taking saquon Barkley under 19 and a half carries. Look, he's coming off at almost 500 touch season. They're eight and a half point home favorites. There's no reason for Saquon Barkley to get a huge workload. So give me the under on 19 and a half rushing attempts for Saquon tonight. That is a fact. Here's another fact. I have 10 of them out. I have a new column. That's right. It's not love hate but a brand new column every single week. 10 facts you need to know before week one. You know you know that Hundred facts before you need to know before you draft column similar to that going to be every week on NBCSports.com and Rotoworld.com 10 facts you need to know before week one. Go check it out. Right now. It's free, of course, as well. So watch me tonight on Football Night in America on NBC. And Peacock, it's closing time. You don't have to go home, but you can't stay here for Jay and Laura Lawrence. Live from the Link, I'm Matthew Berry. We will see you tonight and then back tomorrow for peace out.