Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry

Episode: Week 10 Start/Sit – David Montgomery, Rome Odunze, Tetairoa McMillan + Trade Deadline Fallout
Date: November 5, 2025
Hosts: Matthew Berry, Jay Croucher, Connor Rogers

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the trade deadline fallout in both real football and its ripple effects in fantasy leagues, while also serving up signature start/sit advice for week 10. The hosts dissect high-profile NFL trades, their fantasy implications, and offer advice on challenging lineup decisions, particularly focusing on players like David Montgomery, Rome Odunze, and Tetairoa McMillan. The camaraderie and wit between Matthew, Jay, and Connor shine as they debate, banter, and deliver their usual blend of expert insight and irreverence.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Jets/Colts Blockbuster Trade & QB Value

[01:16–07:32]

• Jets’ Trade Moves: The Jets traded away elite CB Sauce Gardner to the Colts for picks and WR Adonai Mitchell.
  • Berry: “To have a… young cornerstone player who is in a media market where you don’t have much to sell, but he’s a popular player with the fans… that’s the weird one to me.” [04:17]
• QB is Critical: Jets’ prior good drafting (Sauce, Wilson, Hall) means little without a QB hit.
  • Rogers: “When you don’t hit on the quarterback, it doesn’t matter quite often.” [03:10]
• Draft Picks as Assets: Jay highlights the necessity of picks, calling the trade a “no brainer” for the Jets (“A plus, 10 out of 10”). [03:47]
• Daniel Jones/NFL Gravity: Colts’ risk with Jones (as opposed to Mahomes/Allen-level security), noting the potential for the pick to be high if things break badly.

Notable Quote:

“You need a quarterback, you need assets to go and get a quarterback.” — Jay Croucher [03:31]

2. Trade Deadline Fallout – Fantasy Impact

Jacoby Myers to Jacksonville

[07:51–14:39]

• Depth Amid Injuries: With Travis Hunter out and Brian Thomas Jr. banged up, Myers will slot into an immediate role in a depleted Jags WR room.
• Myers’ Fantasy Outlook:
  • Berry: “Jacoby Myers, who wanted out, who’s been productive … likely replaces Travis Hunter as their primary slot guy.” [08:39]
  • Parker Washington’s short-term value rises due to injuries, but Myers is projected as long-term WR3 (PPR).
• Jags Team Context: Easy remaining schedule, good playoff odds—Myers gets a fantasy boost as Jacksonville plays meaningful football.
• Brian Thomas Jr. Diminished: Jay notes Myers will cut into BTJ’s ceiling even more.

Notable Moment:

“It’s going to take Myers a little while to get up to speed… But long term, first Sunday of next year in theory, BTJ, Jacoby Myers in the slot, Travis Hunter on the outside...” — Matthew Berry [09:39]

Raiders WR Fallout

[15:32–18:55]

• Brock Bowers Up: With Myers gone, Bowers dominates targets and Raiders likely increase two-TE sets.
• Trey Tucker/Jack Bech:
  • Tucker: boom-bust, “chance to take it out.” [17:04]
  • Bech: Dynasty stash only; “If you’re in a dynasty league, try to lowball somebody for Jack Besh.” — Connor Rogers [18:55]
• General Raiders Offense: Schematically a mess, don’t expect surplus fantasy value outside of Bowers/Ascendant RB Gentry.

3. Other Notable Trades

Rashid Shaheed to Seahawks

[19:33–24:58]

• Perfect Scheme Fit: Shaheed lands with Sam Darnold in Clint Kubiak’s “deep shot” play-action offense.
  • Jay: “I think you want Rashid Shaheed… just a bit more upside there… schematically he, in theory, fits really well.” [21:28]
• Role in WR Room: Becomes clear #2 behind JSN—potential for big fantasy jump.
• JSN Usage: Debate over whether he’ll move to the slot; all agree the Seahawks now boast elite WR depth.

Notable Quote:

“There is a chance that Rashid Shaheed is like the 16th best wide receiver in football… we just haven’t had a chance to show it.” — Jay Croucher [22:29]

Adonai Mitchell to Jets

[30:51–32:58, 38:51–39:18]

• Fresh Opportunity: From Colts' doghouse to starting reps opposite Garrett Wilson on the Jets.
• Berry: “I just think in an offense where he doesn’t have to be the one… I just thought that was a sneaky, underrated move.” [32:18]
• Rogers: “Opportunity there to show how dire it is for the Jets… Adonai Mitchell gets to play.” [31:38]
• Only worth picking up in deeper/dynasty leagues, but huge spike in opportunity.

4. Start/Sit: Fantasy Lineup Decisions ("Keep It Open or Close It Out")

[35:12–51:43] (Timestamps refer to segment openers—see below for specific advice)

Quarterbacks

• Trevor Lawrence vs. Houston (Close it out)
  • Texans allow fewest FPPG to QBs. “I just don’t want him against the Texans even if they win.” — Berry [36:46]

Running Backs

• David Montgomery vs. Washington (Keep it open)
  • Commanders’ faint defense, game script galore. “Montgomery falls into the end zone in this one.” — Berry [37:51]
• JK Dobbins vs. Raiders (Keep it open)
  • “Since week three, no team… has allowed more rushing touchdowns than the Las Vegas Raiders.” — Berry [40:46]
• Alvin Kamara vs. Panthers (Close it out—worry/drop candidate)
  • Lowest snap share, minuscule usage, non-factor in offense. “He’s like a poor man’s Devin Singletary.” — Berry [43:50]

Wide Receivers

• Rome Odunze vs. Giants (Keep it open)
  • Target share remains high, despite down games. “He’s too good of a player. I’m keeping it open.” — Berry [46:12]
  • Squeaky wheel dad narrative in play.
• Tetairoa McMillan vs. Saints (Keep it open)
  • High 38% target share last 2 games, matchup favorable for deep shots. “I’m banking on the talent and matchup here.” — Berry [49:29]
• Pop Douglas vs. Bucs (Close it out)
  • Usage/route participation low; no reliable red zone work. “He’s not a big red zone target… I’m closing it out.” — Berry [51:25]

Tight Ends

• TJ Hockenson vs. Ravens (Close it out)
  • Yardage vanishing with JJ McCarthy at QB: “I have him at tight end 17. I’m closing it out on the Hockler.” — Berry [51:43]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Jacoby Myers:

  “He likely replaces Travis Hunter as their primary slot guy. … He can play inside and out—as can Parker Washington.” — Matthew Berry [08:35]

• On the “Squeaky Wheel Dad” theory:

  “The squeaky wheel receiver dad is undefeated.” — Connor Rogers [46:20]

• On Kamara’s Fantasy Value:

  “If he were available in my league… I wouldn’t pick him up.” — Matthew Berry [43:49]

• On Seahawks’ Vision with Darnold:

  “Donald’s an MVP candidate, dude, and legitimately so.” — Matthew Berry [24:58]

• On the Dynasty Value of Jack Bech:

  “If you’re in a dynasty league, try to lowball somebody for Jack Besh.” — Connor Rogers [18:55]

Important Timestamps & Segments

• [01:16–07:32]: Jets/Colts Blockbuster Trade – implications and philosophy
• [07:51–14:39]: Jacoby Myers to Jacksonville – depth chart/fantasy impact
• [15:32–18:55]: Raiders WR Fallout—Bech, Tucker, Bowers
• [19:33–24:58]: Rashid Shaheed to Seahawks – fantasy upside
• [30:51–32:58]: Adonai Mitchell to the Jets
• [35:12]: Start/Sit Lightning Round
  • Lawrence [36:46], Montgomery [37:51], Dobbins [40:46], Kamara [43:49], Odunze [46:12], McMillan [49:29], Pop Douglas [51:25], Hockenson [51:43]

Tone & Style

• The trio blends rapid-fire analysis with inside jokes and lively banter, mixing serious fantasy football insight (“I just think in deeper leagues, Adonai Mitchell… utilization could be high the rest of the season” — Connor [32:43]) with comedic asides about “leather bunnies,” fantasy team misfortunes, and Jags’ sad fan bars.
• The show is self-referential (“The Chubby Leather Daddies picked up Adonai Mitchell…” [39:18]) and interactive with listeners, mentioning their questions and even the gender of frequent chat contributors.

Concluding Segment: Futures Bets ("Back to the Futures")

[56:08–End]

• Jay: Baker Mayfield 161/1 for MVP — worth a shot if Bucs surge.
• Connor: Matthew Stafford +550 for MVP — undervalued, expects Rams to "roll."
• Berry: Lamar Jackson 22/1 for MVP — “He should never be 22/1… If he brings them back and they end up winning the division…”

Summary Table: Start/Sit Advice from This Episode

| Player | Opponent | Start/Sit | Rationale/Notes | Timestamps | |---------------------|----------------|-----------|---------------------------------------|------------| | Trevor Lawrence | Texans | Sit | Elite D; no upside this week | 36:46 | | David Montgomery | Commanders | Start | Prime game script, WSH def. fading | 37:51 | | JK Dobbins | Raiders | Start | Touchdown upside, favorable matchup | 40:46 | | Alvin Kamara | Panthers | Sit | Usage vanishing, offense dead | 43:49 | | Rome Odunze | Giants | Start | Maintains target share, bounce back | 46:12 | | Tetairoa McMillan | Saints | Start | Elite target share, deep threat | 49:29 | | Pop Douglas | Buccaneers | Sit | Usage too erratic, unreliable floor | 51:25 | | TJ Hockenson | Ravens | Sit | No usage with current QB, tough D | 51:43 |

Closing

In classic FFHH fashion, this episode grounds its analysis in the context of actual NFL developments, reacts to the trade deadline’s fantasy impacts, and provides actionable, spirited start/sit advice with a dose of humor. Whether you’re scouring waivers, debating start/sit, or playing dynasty, Berry, Jay, and Connor continue to give both keen insight and a reliably good time.

Memorable Sign-off:

“MV3 as that music means it's closing time. You don't have to go home, but you can't stay here. For Jay and Connor, I'm Matthew. We'll see you tomorrow. Peace out.” — Matthew Berry [End]