Week 10 Start/Sit: David Montgomery, Rome Odunze, Tetairoa McMillan + Trade Deadline fallout

Summary

Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry

Episode: Week 10 Start/Sit – David Montgomery, Rome Odunze, Tetairoa McMillan + Trade Deadline Fallout
Date: November 5, 2025
Hosts: Matthew Berry, Jay Croucher, Connor Rogers

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the trade deadline fallout in both real football and its ripple effects in fantasy leagues, while also serving up signature start/sit advice for week 10. The hosts dissect high-profile NFL trades, their fantasy implications, and offer advice on challenging lineup decisions, particularly focusing on players like David Montgomery, Rome Odunze, and Tetairoa McMillan. The camaraderie and wit between Matthew, Jay, and Connor shine as they debate, banter, and deliver their usual blend of expert insight and irreverence.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Jets/Colts Blockbuster Trade & QB Value

[01:16–07:32]

• Jets’ Trade Moves: The Jets traded away elite CB Sauce Gardner to the Colts for picks and WR Adonai Mitchell.
  • Berry: “To have a… young cornerstone player who is in a media market where you don’t have much to sell, but he’s a popular player with the fans… that’s the weird one to me.” [04:17]
• QB is Critical: Jets’ prior good drafting (Sauce, Wilson, Hall) means little without a QB hit.
  • Rogers: “When you don’t hit on the quarterback, it doesn’t matter quite often.” [03:10]
• Draft Picks as Assets: Jay highlights the necessity of picks, calling the trade a “no brainer” for the Jets (“A plus, 10 out of 10”). [03:47]
• Daniel Jones/NFL Gravity: Colts’ risk with Jones (as opposed to Mahomes/Allen-level security), noting the potential for the pick to be high if things break badly.

Notable Quote:

“You need a quarterback, you need assets to go and get a quarterback.” — Jay Croucher [03:31]

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2. Trade Deadline Fallout – Fantasy Impact

Jacoby Myers to Jacksonville

[07:51–14:39]

• Depth Amid Injuries: With Travis Hunter out and Brian Thomas Jr. banged up, Myers will slot into an immediate role in a depleted Jags WR room.
• Myers’ Fantasy Outlook:
  • Berry: “Jacoby Myers, who wanted out, who’s been productive … likely replaces Travis Hunter as their primary slot guy.” [08:39]
  • Parker Washington’s short-term value rises due to injuries, but Myers is projected as long-term WR3 (PPR).
• Jags Team Context: Easy remaining schedule, good playoff odds—Myers gets a fantasy boost as Jacksonville plays meaningful football.
• Brian Thomas Jr. Diminished: Jay notes Myers will cut into BTJ’s ceiling even more.

Notable Moment:

“It’s going to take Myers a little while to get up to speed… But long term, first Sunday of next year in theory, BTJ, Jacoby Myers in the slot, Travis Hunter on the outside...” — Matthew Berry [09:39]

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Raiders WR Fallout

[15:32–18:55]

• Brock Bowers Up: With Myers gone, Bowers dominates targets and Raiders likely increase two-TE sets.
• Trey Tucker/Jack Bech:
  • Tucker: boom-bust, “chance to take it out.” [17:04]
  • Bech: Dynasty stash only; “If you’re in a dynasty league, try to lowball somebody for Jack Besh.” — Connor Rogers [18:55]
• General Raiders Offense: Schematically a mess, don’t expect surplus fantasy value outside of Bowers/Ascendant RB Gentry.

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3. Other Notable Trades

Rashid Shaheed to Seahawks

[19:33–24:58]

• Perfect Scheme Fit: Shaheed lands with Sam Darnold in Clint Kubiak’s “deep shot” play-action offense.
  • Jay: “I think you want Rashid Shaheed… just a bit more upside there… schematically he, in theory, fits really well.” [21:28]
• Role in WR Room: Becomes clear #2 behind JSN—potential for big fantasy jump.
• JSN Usage: Debate over whether he’ll move to the slot; all agree the Seahawks now boast elite WR depth.

Notable Quote:

“There is a chance that Rashid Shaheed is like the 16th best wide receiver in football… we just haven’t had a chance to show it.” — Jay Croucher [22:29]

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Adonai Mitchell to Jets

[30:51–32:58, 38:51–39:18]

• Fresh Opportunity: From Colts' doghouse to starting reps opposite Garrett Wilson on the Jets.
• Berry: “I just think in an offense where he doesn’t have to be the one… I just thought that was a sneaky, underrated move.” [32:18]
• Rogers: “Opportunity there to show how dire it is for the Jets… Adonai Mitchell gets to play.” [31:38]
• Only worth picking up in deeper/dynasty leagues, but huge spike in opportunity.

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4. Start/Sit: Fantasy Lineup Decisions ("Keep It Open or Close It Out")

[35:12–51:43] (Timestamps refer to segment openers—see below for specific advice)

Quarterbacks

• Trevor Lawrence vs. Houston (Close it out)
  • Texans allow fewest FPPG to QBs. “I just don’t want him against the Texans even if they win.” — Berry [36:46]

Running Backs

• David Montgomery vs. Washington (Keep it open)
  • Commanders’ faint defense, game script galore. “Montgomery falls into the end zone in this one.” — Berry [37:51]
• JK Dobbins vs. Raiders (Keep it open)
  • “Since week three, no team… has allowed more rushing touchdowns than the Las Vegas Raiders.” — Berry [40:46]
• Alvin Kamara vs. Panthers (Close it out—worry/drop candidate)
  • Lowest snap share, minuscule usage, non-factor in offense. “He’s like a poor man’s Devin Singletary.” — Berry [43:50]

Wide Receivers

• Rome Odunze vs. Giants (Keep it open)
  • Target share remains high, despite down games. “He’s too good of a player. I’m keeping it open.” — Berry [46:12]
  • Squeaky wheel dad narrative in play.
• Tetairoa McMillan vs. Saints (Keep it open)
  • High 38% target share last 2 games, matchup favorable for deep shots. “I’m banking on the talent and matchup here.” — Berry [49:29]
• Pop Douglas vs. Bucs (Close it out)
  • Usage/route participation low; no reliable red zone work. “He’s not a big red zone target… I’m closing it out.” — Berry [51:25]

Tight Ends

• TJ Hockenson vs. Ravens (Close it out)
  • Yardage vanishing with JJ McCarthy at QB: “I have him at tight end 17. I’m closing it out on the Hockler.” — Berry [51:43]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Jacoby Myers:

  “He likely replaces Travis Hunter as their primary slot guy. … He can play inside and out—as can Parker Washington.” — Matthew Berry [08:35]

• On the “Squeaky Wheel Dad” theory:

  “The squeaky wheel receiver dad is undefeated.” — Connor Rogers [46:20]

• On Kamara’s Fantasy Value:

  “If he were available in my league… I wouldn’t pick him up.” — Matthew Berry [43:49]

• On Seahawks’ Vision with Darnold:

  “Donald’s an MVP candidate, dude, and legitimately so.” — Matthew Berry [24:58]

• On the Dynasty Value of Jack Bech:

  “If you’re in a dynasty league, try to lowball somebody for Jack Besh.” — Connor Rogers [18:55]

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Important Timestamps & Segments

• [01:16–07:32]: Jets/Colts Blockbuster Trade – implications and philosophy
• [07:51–14:39]: Jacoby Myers to Jacksonville – depth chart/fantasy impact
• [15:32–18:55]: Raiders WR Fallout—Bech, Tucker, Bowers
• [19:33–24:58]: Rashid Shaheed to Seahawks – fantasy upside
• [30:51–32:58]: Adonai Mitchell to the Jets
• [35:12]: Start/Sit Lightning Round
  • Lawrence [36:46], Montgomery [37:51], Dobbins [40:46], Kamara [43:49], Odunze [46:12], McMillan [49:29], Pop Douglas [51:25], Hockenson [51:43]

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Tone & Style

• The trio blends rapid-fire analysis with inside jokes and lively banter, mixing serious fantasy football insight (“I just think in deeper leagues, Adonai Mitchell… utilization could be high the rest of the season” — Connor [32:43]) with comedic asides about “leather bunnies,” fantasy team misfortunes, and Jags’ sad fan bars.
• The show is self-referential (“The Chubby Leather Daddies picked up Adonai Mitchell…” [39:18]) and interactive with listeners, mentioning their questions and even the gender of frequent chat contributors.

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Concluding Segment: Futures Bets ("Back to the Futures")

[56:08–End]

• Jay: Baker Mayfield 161/1 for MVP — worth a shot if Bucs surge.
• Connor: Matthew Stafford +550 for MVP — undervalued, expects Rams to "roll."
• Berry: Lamar Jackson 22/1 for MVP — “He should never be 22/1… If he brings them back and they end up winning the division…”

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Summary Table: Start/Sit Advice from This Episode

| Player | Opponent | Start/Sit | Rationale/Notes | Timestamps | |---------------------|----------------|-----------|---------------------------------------|------------| | Trevor Lawrence | Texans | Sit | Elite D; no upside this week | 36:46 | | David Montgomery | Commanders | Start | Prime game script, WSH def. fading | 37:51 | | JK Dobbins | Raiders | Start | Touchdown upside, favorable matchup | 40:46 | | Alvin Kamara | Panthers | Sit | Usage vanishing, offense dead | 43:49 | | Rome Odunze | Giants | Start | Maintains target share, bounce back | 46:12 | | Tetairoa McMillan | Saints | Start | Elite target share, deep threat | 49:29 | | Pop Douglas | Buccaneers | Sit | Usage too erratic, unreliable floor | 51:25 | | TJ Hockenson | Ravens | Sit | No usage with current QB, tough D | 51:43 |

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Closing

In classic FFHH fashion, this episode grounds its analysis in the context of actual NFL developments, reacts to the trade deadline’s fantasy impacts, and provides actionable, spirited start/sit advice with a dose of humor. Whether you’re scouring waivers, debating start/sit, or playing dynasty, Berry, Jay, and Connor continue to give both keen insight and a reliably good time.

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Memorable Sign-off:

“MV3 as that music means it's closing time. You don't have to go home, but you can't stay here. For Jay and Connor, I'm Matthew. We'll see you tomorrow. Peace out.” — Matthew Berry [End]

Transcript

[Matthew Berry]

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[Jay Croucher]

Is key and that the best place.

[Matthew Berry]

To get cleaning supplies is from Grainger. Grainger helps you stay fully stocked on the products you trust. From paper towels and disinfectants to floor scrubbers. Plus you can rely on Grainger for easy reordering.

[Connor Rogers]

So you never run out of what you need.

[Jay Croucher]

Call 1-800-GRAINGER Click grainger.com or just stop by Grainger for the ones who get it done.

[Connor Rogers]

Done.

[Matthew Berry]

Even in my. My weakened state, I was king without a crown.

[Jay Croucher]

He's. He's your bunny. I don't think you guys say that in America, in Australia or in cricket. If you like get the same guy out over and over again, he's your bunny. Like Daryl Cullinan was Shane Warne's bunny. Anyway, so if like you own someone.

[Connor Rogers]

I like the cricket.

[Matthew Berry]

Move on from that. Yeah.

[Jay Croucher]

It's like Josh Allen. Apparently not the regular season, but he's Patrick Mahomes bunny in the postseason. It's just what we say. It's not bad about that.

[Connor Rogers]

No, no.

[Matthew Berry]

I just.

[Jay Croucher]

That's allowed. No flags on that.

[Matthew Berry]

No, sure. No. There's a lot of jokes running through my head and I'm trying to decide which ones of them I can get away with.

[Connor Rogers]

I don't like this addition to the show.

[Matthew Berry]

Year four.

[Connor Rogers]

We didn't need this.

[Matthew Berry]

This is heading into dangerous territory. Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry.

[Connor Rogers]

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Happy hour. Connor Rogers, Matthew Berry, Jay Croucher, who taught us all a new.

[Matthew Berry]

I just have a very important question. I'm that. Yeah, I have a very important question.

[Jay Croucher]

You're with your friends. Impress them.

[Matthew Berry]

I have a very important question here and this is specifically for you. Connor J. Rogers, are The jets the NFL's bunny?

[Jay Croucher]

Planet Earth's bunny?

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

Right. Big sporting worlds.

[Jay Croucher]

Just the National Football League.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. Just all of the universe's bunny.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

Them and the Buffalo Sabres trading the playoff drought streak.

[Jay Croucher]

But that's another good example. The jets were Tom Brady's bunny for A long time until Mark Sanchez went into Foxborough.

[Connor Rogers]

Rex Ryan.

[Jay Croucher]

Rex Ryan went into Foxborough. Rex Ryan.

[Connor Rogers]

I just want to clarify that.

[Matthew Berry]

Plenty of trade deadline. It's been a tough run for jets fans. Don't you know? Mark Sanchez has had a couple of bad months here.

[Connor Rogers]

Well, the good news for jets fans, the jets draft enthusiasts drink for free today, gang.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, they do. Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

Because now they have five first round picks in the next two years.

[Matthew Berry]

If you like draft picks. And the jets today is for you.

[Connor Rogers]

You guys drink free, rare.

[Matthew Berry]

The obvious, this has happened before where the jets have had high draft picks, where they've had a bountiful amount of draft picks. The question is, can they nail them or can they Gotta get the quarterback. Gotta get the quarterback.

[Connor Rogers]

Because the funny thing is some of the guys they just traded like Sauce Gardner. They did nail a lot of those rebuilding picks. Garrett Wilson, Jermaine Johnson, Breeze Hall. But when you don't hit on the quarterback, it doesn't matter quite often. It's crazy to say no. You have to hit on that pick.

[Matthew Berry]

And it is.

[Connor Rogers]

We'll try it again.

[Matthew Berry]

It is the most important position in professional sports. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

Can't win without it.

[Jay Croucher]

I think most, for the most part, the response to the jets trade has been positive on the jets side that this is the right thing. Have seen this idea though, that draft picks, they're just lottery tickets. It's like, well, that's how you got Source Gardener, Quinn Williams in the first place. You need a quarterback, you need assets to go and get a quarterback.

[Matthew Berry]

They.

[Jay Croucher]

This is just a complete no brainer from the jets, like a plus 10 out of 10. Also. That doesn't mean it was a bad trade exactly. For the Colts either, who are in position my Colts to win the super bowl this year. So go for it. Particularly when you're getting a player of Source gardener's caliber.

[Connor Rogers]

He's 25 years old.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. The last, last chance to.

[Jay Croucher]

Welcome to the team. Welcome to the team, Source. Welcome to the shoe. We're all for it here. But to get a player of his caliber at your most glaring position of need, I get it there as well. Win, win, trade. I'm not sure what the Cowboys are doing, but good stuff from the jets and the Colts.

[Matthew Berry]

No, the only sauce is the only one like Williams makes sense. You know, all the other deals that I think they made make sense. The source one is the only question for me. And I get. They got a haul, right? I mean they got, they got out and I Mitchell and they get to do first rounders. And so I get that and we'll talk about that. But I. To have a. He's a young cornerstone player who is. You're in a media market where you don't have much to sell, but he's a popular player with the fans. Right? So you're. You're selling one of the faces of the franchise who is young, talented and under contract. Like you got an extension with this kid. So it's just. That's the weird one to me. I get it. You got two first rounders. You got a. A talented but underperforming young wide receiver, which is an area of need for the. For the Jets. We'll talk about him in a second. But I just. It's more of a football discussion than a fancy one. But it was. It's a weird one to me.

[Connor Rogers]

It's definitely surprising. Right? But I just think everybody has a price. And the Colts after weeks, apparently, if you listen to Jets Jim, Darren Muji of asking for him, they went to a price of. The jets are like, we're going to meet that. We're going to go with that one is the thing.

[Jay Croucher]

I love my quarterback. I love Daniel Jones. He's been fantastic this year. That pick this year is going to be like the 25th pick in the draft or something. But the following year, the reality is, is that you've bought equity in a team that has Daniel Jones as its quarterback. Like Daniel Jones is not Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes. They guaranteed pretty much each year to be a playoff team if they're healthy. Daniel Jones, the wheels could just fall off, the infrastructure get worse, the offensive line can get injuries and all of a sudden you're looking at a potential top 10 pick. So, yeah, I think it was an incredible day of work from the New York jets, maybe.

[Matthew Berry]

Although I think this is a perfect example of right coach, right player. Daniel Jones was the sixth overall pick in the draft. And like, I know a lot of people at the time thought he went a little bit high, but it wasn't a crazy reach. They're like, he probably should have gone like in the 16 to 20 range. But most people. Connor, you and I didn't know each other for that particular year, but like, I don't know. Did you have a first round draft grade on him?

[Connor Rogers]

Top of the second. But to be fair, I don't really curve quarterbacks like a lot of people do.

[Matthew Berry]

Okay.

[Connor Rogers]

So when you hear me say top of the second round grade for a quarterback or second round grade for a quarterback, it's not that I think they're terrible, it's just that I don't annoy every quarterback prospect as a top five pick.

[Matthew Berry]

Right.

[Connor Rogers]

Where teams do the same thing.

[Jay Croucher]

By the way.

[Connor Rogers]

You just don't see that in the NFL teams draft quarterbacks in the top 10 that they have second round grades on all the time because it's a quarterback. So your point stands Matthew, that like we're not going like Daniel Jones is like what Brock Purdy became great where it's like whoa, seventh round pick that like nowhere like the talent is supposed to.

[Matthew Berry]

Daniel Jones was a guy that like overperformed relative the talent around him at Duke and then got into a terrible situation in New York where they surrounded him with no talent whatsoever. But you know, still got it out of moments. Had some moments. His rookie year obviously wins a road playoff game. So I don't know, I don't think, I think a second year in Stockholm system and like I don't think they lose any, you know, major free agents. I think anyway I think he's a, an above average game manager and I don't say that as an insult. I think that's in that offense.

[Jay Croucher]

I think your median expectation for the Colts next year is that you know they're not going to be the same world betting forces this year because just gravity drags you back more than the NFL. But the average expectant to be a 9, 10 win type of team right next year.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, it's totally fair.

[Jay Croucher]

But there's a, I don't know what it is a 25% chance that that pick is in the top 10 just because that's what happens in the NFL. Attrition happens. The Ravens were just one in five when they came to the season of super bowl favorites. Like just weird stuff happens in the NFL.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, listen, you're, you're not one player away obviously for the jets and so for Aaron Glenn and the entire organization you're like if we can get more picks and you can always package picks to do much. So again, sauce was a weird one to me. But let's break down. This is a fantasy football show, Connor, so let's, yes, let's talk fake football.

[Connor Rogers]

We have trade deadline impacts. We're going to get through all of the big moves that affect us in fantasy. After that though, we got to keep it open or close it out. We're always answering your start sick questions on Wednesdays. And back to the futures to close the show with our best futures bets. Let's get right into it here because we had a move that struck very early in the trade deadline final day yesterday. Jacoby Myers goes from the Raiders, finally gets out of the Raiders, goes to Jacksonville. I think this is one Matthew, where you look around at and go, okay, well what is the impact? Because on paper this is a crowded Jacksonville wide receiver room, but on the injury report it actually could be thin very early on for sure.

[Matthew Berry]

I mean obviously Travis Hunter is already out. You know, let's see Brian Thomas Jr. He's dealing with this like they're like, is it a high ankle?

[Connor Rogers]

The classic high ankle that's a low grade high ankle.

[Matthew Berry]

Like I don't know what that means. It just sounds bad. I think there's a, I think there's a certain scenario where Brian Thomas Jr. Doesn't play this weekend or if he does, he's less than 100%. So then you're sitting there with Travis Hunter and who knows when he's coming back, right? He's on ir. So Jacobi Myers, who wanted out, who's been productive, you know, basically likely replaces at full health. He likely, he likely replaces Travis Hunter as their primary slot guy. But he can play inside and out, as can Parker Washington. I think that Diamond Brown also, I think in the concussion protocol. So to your point, I think that in an ideal world, until Travis Hunter comes back, in an ideal world you've got Parker Washington can play out. I think it's Parker Washington, not in that order. It's BTJ Jacobi Myers, Parker Washington in that order. When they go 3 wide and I think it's Myers and BTJ when they're too wide right. It's sort of what I think happens here. At least this week. It's going to take Myers a little while to get up to speed. I do think Parker Washington could still be a viable, you know, low end wide receiver, three in PPR leagues this week only because it's going to take a little while to Myers to get up and BTJ is banged up. But long term, I think long term, first Sunday of next year in theory, BTJ Jacoby Myers in the slot, Travis Hunter on the outside or they, they swap back and forth because I don't know that it moves up Trevor Lawrence anymore this week. We're going to get to him and close it, keep it up and close it out. Like yes, it helps him because it's another viable pass catcher, but I don't know that it moves the needle for you. Feel good about Trevor Lawrence.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah. By the way, the Jags are one and a half point Dogs in that game in Houston and Davis Mills is expected to start CJ Strouds in concussion protocol and the reporting has been that's trending in the wrong direction. I think the Jags are amazing, but how are they dogs against Davis Mills?

[Connor Rogers]

Texans defense is viewed that highly. It really is.

[Jay Croucher]

Whether you agree or not, Davis Mills right there is Trevor Lawrence.

[Matthew Berry]

Trevor Lawrence has been inconsistent and they're banged up on the offensive side here.

[Connor Rogers]

I think this is a game that I personally wouldn't even think about touching. Way too many variables.

[Jay Croucher]

I'm all in. Jacks. Screw it. Jack's good man.

[Connor Rogers]

That takes a stand.

[Matthew Berry]

Jags plus one and a half.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah. Somebody's best team in the NFL gets it done on the road in Houston against Will Anderson and Friends. I think fantasy wise, I think the biggest impact is just Brian Thomas Jr. Ceiling again gets diminished. It's been gradually diminishing but this hurts him. Parker Washington I do think is going to continue to be viable because he is still the slot guy and he showed what he could do against the Raiders where he was. He was Trevor Lawrence's number one option. Degree of comfort there.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, I mean listen, Trevor Lawrence is QB18 on a points per game basis so far and that's been pushed up by, you know, some rushing touchdowns which you don't always expect from the traveler. I think moving forward Jacoby Meyer is probably a low end wide receiver. 3 I think Brian Thomas Jr. Probably a low end wide receiver too until again it just hasn't been the kind of year we hope from him. But like on the season he's wide receiver 39 in points per game now he's been better recently but like to your point, I just think he's got a 21% target share with Jacoby Myers there who's always been a pretty good target earner in his career. I think that comes down here. Aaron Cashman asks guys, Parker Washington or Xavier Worthy rest of season. Wow. It's amazing that that's a question. Xavier Worthy still Xavier worthy. I agree with you. Give me Patrick Mahomes over Trevor Lawrence throwing the ball. Xavier Worthy's still going to be pretty much an every down player and just have an explosiveness that Parker Washington doesn't. And I do think that again Myers will take some of the slot targets. Washington can play outside Connor, but that's.

[Connor Rogers]

Not where you want him. We like him as a slot merchant and a slot merchant only slot.

[Matthew Berry]

Exactly.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. Him and Brenton Strange. Just different variables of slot merchants.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. And that's the other Thing. By the way, Breton Strange is likely come back.

[Connor Rogers]

I miss him a lot in this offense. They clearly have. I like Jacoby Myers floor now in this offense just because I think, man, it does not look good for Brian Thomas Jr. This year. And it's. When you hear Liam Cohen speak about it, it's not like reassuring. They clearly wanted a veteran wide receiver that they could rely on in this offense.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah. I think the real strange thing is that he's not going over the middle and putting his body on the line on those players, which they're clearly not happy about.

[Connor Rogers]

Now he's hurt.

[Jay Croucher]

And now he's hurt.

[Matthew Berry]

He's got some alligator arms to him a little bit.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. The thing with him as a prospect always was he's this freak athlete. He's got great size. He could take the top off the defense, throw him a screen and he can run by you. But like everything else in the middle, not to play hindsight because I liked him as much as anyone is was a work in progress.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

And this year it's kind of looked like a work in progress.

[Jay Croucher]

He's the first ever Mac Jones Merchant.

[Matthew Berry]

In the history of the NFL.

[Connor Rogers]

Oh, Kendrick Bourne.

[Jay Croucher]

Kendrick Bourne as well.

[Matthew Berry]

Who's the second? But he's the second Mac Jones Merchant.

[Jay Croucher]

Yes. It's unbelievable. The man can only succeed with Mac Jones. He'll never Lawrence and he can't do it.

[Connor Rogers]

Build the entire plane out of Mac Jones is what they say. Let's look at the Raiders side of this.

[Matthew Berry]

But either way, like to your point, like Jacoby Myers being a veteran here and for them going out and at least while he goes from Las Vegas to Jacksonville, I mean the Jags are in it. I mean the Raiders just have no chance. The Jaguars their favorites to make the playoffs.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, they're like plus 300 to chase down Mike Colts in the AFC south, which they won't be doing. Colts division, but the schedule's pretty friendly. They're probably gonna play Davis Mills this week and will win that game as I've declared on this national streaming service. So, yeah, the Jags are very much in the hunt. They're going to be playing meaningful games.

[Matthew Berry]

The rest of the way, which I just think helps the sort of. He wanted out. He just said he got a fresh start.

[Jay Croucher]

They're still going to play the Titans twice.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Jay Croucher]

Jets have no humans left.

[Matthew Berry]

Home to the Chargers. That's a west coast team traveling east at the Cardinals. Like right week 14 against the Colts are tough, but right week 16 against at the Broncos tough but you're right. Two games against the Titans. Game against the Jets. Cardinals don't scare you. They get Davis Mills this week. Yeah, I mean, they're going to.

[Jay Croucher]

They're five and three and they have, like. No game is a guaranteed win in the NFL, but they have three. Pretty close to. Just chalk them up wins. Two against the Titans and one against the Jets. That's eight. You probably only need one or two more and then. Yeah, so.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, you're right. Yeah, fair enough.

[Jay Croucher]

Producer Steven is going to have a nervous January watching his Jags get stomped by the Chiefs. Whatever.

[Connor Rogers]

Whatever bar it was.

[Matthew Berry]

I was just going to say he's going to have to go to that sad Jaguars bar in New York City.

[Connor Rogers]

Like, eight people.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, exactly.

[Connor Rogers]

Four Blake Borl jerseys.

[Matthew Berry]

Mark Brunel jersey jerseys. You know, Tony Bocelli jerseys. It's all like. Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

Odd teal shots when they score.

[Jay Croucher]

It's gonna be great. They'll be plus seven and a half in Buffalo and lose by 20. We should.

[Connor Rogers]

We should do the show from there.

[Jay Croucher]

No, we shouldn't.

[Matthew Berry]

We actually should.

[Connor Rogers]

No, we should do the show from there.

[Matthew Berry]

We should do. We should do the show for there.

[Jay Croucher]

I think it's a health risk if.

[Connor Rogers]

They make the playoffs. We should do the show.

[Matthew Berry]

We should do from the Sheriff.

[Connor Rogers]

That's what I'm gonna do.

[Matthew Berry]

Even, by the way, we don't even. We can just. It can just be the three of us in, like, an iPhone. Oh, yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

We need to look like this.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. We don't need NBC to. We don't need NBC to pon. Like, we'll just. We'll just go there. Like, we'll just. We'll stream live on my Instagram or something. We'll do a show from there.

[Jay Croucher]

I can go. They'll cancel my grain card. It's like, I can't be saving that bar with Jags fans.

[Matthew Berry]

It'd be too weird. Lawrence will be down. Lawrence doesn't care.

[Connor Rogers]

All right, the Raiders side of this, guys. And yes, there is a Raiders side to this. We got to hear from their offensive coordinator Chip Kelly on Jack Besh's role post Jacoby Myers.

[Matthew Berry]

What kind of similarities do you see.

[Connor Rogers]

Between his game and Jacoby's game?

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, I don't compare anybody to anybody, so I don't. I don't see any similarities between that. I think everybody their own individual. So I've never looked at a player and said, this guy reminds me of that guy. It's just, what is that guy's strengths and what are his weaknesses? And how do you improve this? How do you lean into the strengths and improve the weaknesses? What do you think this trade means.

[Jay Croucher]

For Trey Tucker and is it safe to say he's the WR1?

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, I don't look at WR1s or WR2s or WR3s or W2s. You know, I'm just. We're trying to figure out whoever catches.

[Jay Croucher]

The ball and runs really fast with.

[Matthew Berry]

It in the direction of the end zone is really good for us. Wow.

[Jay Croucher]

Now shout out to W2 forms.

[Connor Rogers]

I say I hope he looks at his W2s.

[Matthew Berry]

It's first off, shout out to whoever asked those two questions because those are secret fantasy football questions that they're designed. It's clear that whoever asks those questions are like, you know, that's decisions to make. Exactly.

[Connor Rogers]

I got you. Marches on a buy.

[Matthew Berry]

Come on. I've got some tough flex spots. Help me out here. What I would say is that I actually think your guy Brock Bowers, who was already like the number one titan in fantasy or close to it, right. I just think 40% target share moving forward. I think they actually, I think they likely go to more two tight end sets here. They try to get Michael Mayer on the field even more, which helps in theory. Ashton Genti and gets those two guys. Trey Tucker is like, does he get a small bump? Sure. But he's got an 18% target share. He's a boom bust wide receiver. 3 Chance to take it out. He is a guy that can catch the ball and run really fast. You just got to get him the ball. Which has been inconsistent for the Raiders. Jack Besh, this possession kind of slot guy, Connor, I know this is somebody that you really liked him a lot coming out of college.

[Connor Rogers]

I really did a bigger bodied slot guy too. He's about 220 pounds. I thought he had him and Colson Loveland I thought had the best hands in the draft. Like they caught everything that came their way. He's a good route runner. It's been a little surprising to me that he hasn't been able to get on the field. And obviously they see him at practice every day and all summer so you would think they know what they're doing. But now it just feels like the opportunity is there. If Besh at some point in the season started to become this like five catch guy every week, it wouldn't shock me at all. I'm actually surprised it took this long to maybe find a role for him. If they do find one.

[Jay Croucher]

The issue as well with the Raiders, if you're looking to buy shares of an offense. Like don't look at Las Vegas. This offense is a complete mess. Schematically. Like why is Ashton Jensen getting hit behind the line of scrimmage every time but behind an offensive line that was like competent last year and now it's just a complete mess. Ashton Genti has no chance on this team to really do anything. Gino looked a bit better against the Jags, but still doesn't look like Seattle Gino at all. And I don't know Chip Kelly just the Raiders Black just doesn't. Doesn't suit him. He looks like he's just throwing it on. It's just, it's not working in Las Vegas.

[Matthew Berry]

Two quick things. First off like rest of the season. I'll just ask you Connor, in terms of like, again, given the offense, I know we love Besh's talent but even a scenario where they sort of get the offense rolling like rest of the season, would you rather have Jack Besch or like Parker Washington?

[Connor Rogers]

Parker Washington, we haven't seen an ounce of Jack Besh.

[Matthew Berry]

That's the problem. We just don't think this offense is going to be produce enough fantasy points outside of Bowers and you know, Genty that you feel like you can consistently start those players week in, week out.

[Connor Rogers]

But I will say if you're in a Dynasty league, try to lowball somebody for Jack Besh. If you think like they'll take a late pick because they're just like, this guy's done nothing for me. My roster is crowded. I would take a flyer on him in Dynasty for a late pick because I still think he's really talented. The Raiders offense has been horrible. It can't be this bad next year and the year after that. They probably have to fix a lot of different things. Schematically. I would, I would. He'd be a buy low for me in dynasty.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. By the way, it also just doesn't feel like Dante Thornton's doing anything at all.

[Connor Rogers]

He's mbs, like at his best form. He's mbs. That's what he was.

[Matthew Berry]

This is not helpful.

[Connor Rogers]

All right.

[Matthew Berry]

Not helpful at all.

[Connor Rogers]

Another move. I think this one actually is pretty exciting, guys. The Seahawks acquiring Rashid Shahid from the Saints. Jay, I know you loved what you've seen from Sam Darnold this season and Sam Darnold gets even more help.

[Jay Croucher]

It's. It's incredible. The most incredible thing about the Sam Donald season is that he's just really jsn. JSN is the only, only needle mover in that offense in the passing game. And Donald has still been able to statistically advance that to be the best quarterback in football so far in terms of EPA per play, in terms of PFF grade right up there in QBR passer rating. And so Rashid Shahid, who's an excellent wide receiver who just hasn't had a quarterback and when he has had like the best quarterback, he's played Derek Carr when Derek Carr was having his better moments and to inject him into this.

[Connor Rogers]

Offense with which offensive coordinator?

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, with Clint Kubiak and so had.

[Matthew Berry]

Him in, in New Orleans.

[Jay Croucher]

This offense is built off of taking play action, deep shots and that is what Rashid Shahid was built for. So I think it's a dream marriage. We'll see. The only concerns are one, you've got Jason, who's been the best wide receiver in the sport of football. Yes, it's been sporting close to a 40% target rate and you have a very low pass rate over expectation team. At the same time though, like there can be room for more than one guy in the offense. And so Rashid Shed is now clearly the number two. In the past game on the season.

[Matthew Berry]

He'S wide receiver 35 on a points per game basis, averaging a little over 11 points per game. And so you feel like that's his floor. Again, better offense, more efficient, better quarterback, a coordinator who knows how to use him. You know, he was under Clint Kubiak when Shahid sort of had his breakthrough from like, hey, here's this guy that returns kicks or punts and you know, like, why can't we get this guy in the field more? And then, you know, under Kubiak they did get him on the field more and he sort of had a breakout bed FF happy hour regular says Shahid or Pierce, your man Alec Pierce pulling up the rest of the season. Jay, I'll give this one to you because he is your guy.

[Jay Croucher]

I think it's. I think you want Rashid Shahid. Just because Pierce is in competition with Michael Pittman and Josh Downs and Tyler Warren and they run the ball so much for Jonathan Taylor. Shahid is just. There's a bit more upside there because we don't know what his role is going to be, but we know the talent is there and schematically he in theory fits really well. And Shahid comes in being the number two option in the pass game, whereas Pearce is the number three. Three, I would say, behind Pittman and Warren a lot of the time and Downs mixing into.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, I mean for it's Worth just this week I have Pierce five spots higher than Shaheed, but I could certainly see the long term. It certainly hurts Tori Horton who we thought, oh, we finally got the Tory Horton breakout game against my commanders and now this one's tough. So you know Horton, love him as you talk about Jock Besh in Dynasty. Love Tory Horton in Dynasty. Like I Cooper cup, one of my favorite players in the NFL. But like, doesn't feel like you can't start even. Even if you knew Cooper cup with the sun for healthy, you can't start him anymore. Like, he shouldn't be rostered in leagues right now.

[Jay Croucher]

And so I think the thing with Shahid is that like the advanced stuff on Shade has always been off the charts in terms of his efficiency, his yards per route run, his ability on deep balls, his ability to separate and his just his environment has been so poor his whole career, basically. And so there is just. There is a chance that Rashid Shahid is like the 16th best wide receiver in football. We just don't know it because we hasn't had a chance to show it. Now we get a chance to show it. So that's why I like the upside there.

[Matthew Berry]

Seattle's third in the NFL in terms of wide receiver target share this season. You know, and so, right, you see every once in a while a moment from AJ Barn or Elijah Arroyo, but it's really, you know, on those wide receivers and now you add somebody like Rashid Shahid. Could you see a scenario, Connor? Again, we'll figure out what. What, you know, we'll get more information and data this weekend when we sort of see how it all plays out. But could you see a scenario where you've got Shahid and Horton on the ends and they move JSN back to the slide?

[Connor Rogers]

Makes a ton of sense. That would be really savvy thinking if that's what.

[Jay Croucher]

I just think that, like, JSN is having perhaps the greatest wide receiver season we've ever seen, and he's doing it from the outside. I think that.

[Matthew Berry]

But he was awesome from the slot last year. I mean, he plays in and out.

[Connor Rogers]

Maybe it opens up for him to balance both.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

Because every team that has an elite number one wide receiver, they move them around like the Cowboys have done with CD Lamb. What do we got here?

[Matthew Berry]

Scott McLaury. Pretty good.

[Connor Rogers]

JSN will be even more open, if that is even possible. Put his jersey on the wall.

[Matthew Berry]

We need a Seahawks 11. We need a Seahawks 11 jersey.

[Connor Rogers]

I like the. The alternate blue one, too. Seahawks have like one of the best jerseys.

[Matthew Berry]

Pretty good. Yeah. I got. I got to talk to my friends at fnatic, see if we can get a JSN jersey here. We absolutely need it. By the way, the one last thing I'll just say, because just since we talked about both the Raiders and now we're talking about the Seahawks, my second worst take of the year, I think, is Gino, because when. When they traded. When the Seahawks traded Geno to Las Vegas, it was like, what are you doing? Like, gino's fine. He's a solid quarterback. Like, what do you do? Like, there's no one else. You. You guys missed in the draft and everything like that, so what are you doing? And I guess, like, well, I guess they're. They've decided to just sort of shut it down and just kind of rebuild. I'm like, all right, well, that makes sense that they're doing. And then they signed Darnold to this big contract like, you had Gino and. Wait, what. You know what I mean? And it has worked, given what we've seen from Gino this year and what we've seen from Darnell this year. They are smarter than me. Jay Croucher, they.

[Connor Rogers]

Nobody saw this.

[Matthew Berry]

I mean. I mean, Donald's an MVP candidate, dude, and legitimately so.

[Connor Rogers]

And.

[Matthew Berry]

But I'm just saying, that was my second worst take of the year by. So I was. The worst take was. Is with your Colts. Like, I fully own this. Like, just two of the worst takes I've had all season long. This one was. I was just sort of like, I don't understand what the Seahawks are doing. And it's clear that they were absolutely right. And then the second thing was the Colts, when they named Daniel Jones the starter, and I said, to my credit, I said, listen, Jones is actually a good. No, listen, I said, to my credit, I said, jones is actually a good fit for Steichen's offense. I think he'll be fine. I think he'll be competent. The issue is, you're going to win eight or nine games and you're going to lose a wild card game. You're never going to the super bowl with Daniel Jones. They need to see what they have in Anthony Richardson. That was my take. And it's clearly wrong because there's a very good chance they go to the super bowl with Daniel Jones.

[Jay Croucher]

Like, five to one.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. I mean, that's unbelievable. So I'm just saying, you know, shout out to your Colts to Shane Steich and Chris Bell, the entire Colts organization. That was. That's My worst take of the year. I'm owning it. I've apologized for it. I will continue to apologize for it.

[Jay Croucher]

Yes.

[Matthew Berry]

Worst take of the year.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah. The hashtag isn't against the shoe, Matthew. It's for the shoe.

[Matthew Berry]

For the shoe.

[Jay Croucher]

It's for future notice.

[Matthew Berry]

But I was hashtag against the shoe. I did at least the art. The logic was right. That he would be a good fit for Steichen's offense.

[Connor Rogers]

Yes.

[Matthew Berry]

And that they would be a lot better than they would be under Richardson. I just, you know, I think. I didn't think that he'd be this good.

[Jay Croucher]

I think a big lesson out of all this stuff is like, sometimes you got to trust the infrastructure. Like, Shane Steichen had shown that he was an excellent play caller and that he knew what he was doing with an offense. And Mike McDonald, the wrong one. Yeah, I like from Stuntman Chuck.

[Connor Rogers]

Chat's on fire right now.

[Matthew Berry]

Stuntman Chuck. You got me.

[Jay Croucher]

The other thing with Mike McDonald is like, all right, the Ravens defense fell apart as soon as he left. Mike McDonald is a really good coach.

[Matthew Berry]

Yes.

[Jay Croucher]

He is going to sometimes just trust the infrastructure. Also, apparently Pete Carroll doesn't have it anymore. Apparently this might be all over.

[Connor Rogers]

He's the oldest coach in the NFL.

[Matthew Berry]

Somebody said this to me watching all the games on Sunday. Just said, he looks old. I mean, I know he finally looks old. I know he is old, but he just. He looks old. I don't know if the season's wearing on him or just what. That was the comment to me, to somebody who knows Pete and, you know, for a long time wonder if he.

[Jay Croucher]

Behind the scenes, just thinks like, I thought Jano would be better as well, and he's not.

[Matthew Berry]

And I don't know, is it. Is it Gino? Is it Chip Kelly's offense? Is it just the.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, I don't think Chip Kelly's got his fastball, but whatever. By what they're putting out on the field. Yeah, it's not great.

[Connor Rogers]

Good day from the chat right now. Aloha Bricks says the excuse lure is maturing.

[Jay Croucher]

No, he's not.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

Ryan Oswald, though, probably disagrees. He said Barry's entire draft was his worst take of the year.

[Matthew Berry]

No, that's not true. I just. I had some bad luck there. There's a couple of bad picks, but, like, Chase Brown was obviously worked out to be a very bad pick. But, like, you can't predict Joe Burrow.

[Connor Rogers]

Everybody was taking Chase Brown in that spot.

[Matthew Berry]

Yes, I agree.

[Jay Croucher]

That's fine.

[Matthew Berry]

Right.

[Connor Rogers]

No one's Gonna get on you for taking Chase.

[Matthew Berry]

Oh, and Derrick Henry was bad. And then like again, the Xavier Worthy theory was right. He just, you know, then he missed for the first four games. Like the idea was like he was going to establish himself before Rice came back and he just missed all that time. My number one, my first round pick was Jaden Daniels. He's been terrible this year. Like he's mostly been. He's mostly been hurt. And the few games that he's been, you know, he's been fine, but he hasn't been all world. And that was honestly my worst pick was Daniels, you know, but like in a super flex league, he was a top three pick across the board. In fantasy, I had the third pick. Nathan Southard says taking him fourth.

[Jay Croucher]

Huh. I thought we had Hertz over him. I thought you flipped for the genders because.

[Matthew Berry]

No, I said I had Hertz as ranked. I had Hertz ranked fourth. But my, my argument was that Hertz was the best value because of the way. Because he was going like a round later in. In.

[Connor Rogers]

Right.

[Matthew Berry]

In single quarterback leagues. But in superflex leagues, those are the first four picks or four of the first five anyway. Nathan says. Nathan Southern says. Is Olave now boosted even more with poor quarterback play? I think he is. He's. He's been sort of quarterback proof.

[Connor Rogers]

Right. Well, it's to go somewhere.

[Matthew Berry]

Right.

[Connor Rogers]

Can't just be Joanne Johnson.

[Matthew Berry]

No, I mean, I think it will. So so far Joanne Johnson is. Is the 14th best tight end in points per game. He's got almost a 19%. My expectation is he probably becomes the number two pass catcher after Olave in this Saints offense. Kamara has done, I will say in our league where there's no one available. I did pick up Devon Bailey this morning. Just like. Well, somebody has to catch passes. They did trade picks for this organization, this current regime. Kellen Moore traded picks to go get Devon Valley. So they clearly saw something in him. Connor. And now with the Rasheed Shahid out.

[Connor Rogers]

The window and he's a possession guy so you hope for some kind of PPR floor man logging on our waivers this morning.

[Matthew Berry]

I mean it's just.

[Connor Rogers]

I shut it off ugly. I shut it off. I don't even. I can't even fill out a lineup because of buys this week. But I didn't pick anyone up.

[Matthew Berry]

No.

[Connor Rogers]

Because I'm not picking up Tyler Higby for my flex.

[Matthew Berry]

Oh, it's awful.

[Jay Croucher]

Pop Douglas. Yeah, I might have picked.

[Connor Rogers]

No, I wanted Pop Douglas.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Jay Croucher]

There's a bidding war.

[Connor Rogers]

Yes, that's how bad it was.

[Matthew Berry]

There was a bidding war in our league for Pop Douglas. There's a bidding war.

[Connor Rogers]

Somebody paid up for Pop Douglas.

[Matthew Berry]

Someone did. No one on this table. And we'll talk about him in the next segment here. The last thing. So anyway, I just think in deeper leagues, Devon Belay of, you know, him versus the Mason Tiptons, the world, I think Vale has a chance. But you know, I just think to your point, Nathan. Yeah. Olave just was already wide receiver. 16 already has like a 29% target share. Just his volume goes up. I think this is helps Juwan Johnson, a sneaky thing for all the, for all the, you know, talk about can't believe they traded Sauce Gardner and you know, Quinn and Williams and all the moves and why they didn't trade Breece Hall. But for all that, I thought an underrated move that could be very interesting for fantasy is Adnai Mitchell going from your Colts where he was buried in the doghouse ever since he, you know, he dropped the ball on the, you know, the 5 inch line and cost them a touchdown and a loss and.

[Jay Croucher]

Then got a holding penalty to call back Jonathan Taylor's 52 yard game winner.

[Connor Rogers]

Yes. A bad day for.

[Matthew Berry]

So he had a very bad day. But now he goes to a Jets organization that after Garrett Wilson really doesn't have any wide receivers. It's like it's Garrett Wilson and like the ghost of Alan Lazard. And so, you know, like why we like Mason Taylor but Adonai Mitchell was a second round pick out of Texas 18 months ago.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, like it's not like he's like a second round pick where it's like, ah, it's definitely over and it might be Tyler Johnson. The jets are going to find out. Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

You know, I mean like there's, there's.

[Connor Rogers]

Opportunity there to show how dire it is for the Jets. Tyler Johnson, over his last two games has each of those. He's caught three passes for 60 plus yards. It's like they're just looking for some bodies to catch passes in this offense. So now Adonai Mitchell, the most important thing is he gets to play.

[Matthew Berry]

Right?

[Connor Rogers]

He gets to play. Somebody has to play in this offense besides Garrett Wilson and Mason Taylor. It's going to be maybe not first week, but it's going to be Adonai Mitchell.

[Matthew Berry]

Let's see what he could do. Right. I just, I think it's a really interesting opportunity because again, like this is somebody that was highly thought of coming out of college. Maybe, you know, I'm Trying to think of the right way to phrase it has some George Pickens to his game both in terms of on the field and off the field.

[Connor Rogers]

I would call it. Focus issues.

[Matthew Berry]

Yes, focus issue. That's a good way to put it.

[Connor Rogers]

All the talent in the world.

[Matthew Berry]

Yes.

[Connor Rogers]

Right. I had him. I had him 40th overall. He went 52nd and he did not go 52nd because of lack of talent.

[Matthew Berry]

Right.

[Jay Croucher]

He had to catch that 50 yard touchdown pass to fumble it out of the inside.

[Matthew Berry]

I just think, I just think in a, in an offense that, that where he doesn't have to be the one where he, you know, where Garrett Wilson is, clearly. And then you've got a nice possession receiver in Mason Taylor. Now you've got a guy that can take the top off the defense and can he, can he, can he, you know, fix the focus issues if you will, you know, expand his route tree? I don't know. I just thought that was a sneaky, underrated move of that trade that didn't get a lot of headlines.

[Connor Rogers]

When you play in a league like ours, you're turning over every rock right now. And Adnan Mitchell, his utilization could be high the rest of the season. We're going to take our first break. When we're back, keep it open or close it out. We got your start. Sit dilemmas answered right after this.

[Matthew Berry]

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[Jay Croucher]

No but Drake man Matthew Stefan I.

[Matthew Berry]

Do have the benching him in I know Xavier Worthy. I know Xavier Worthy right sucks. No Chase Brown like you know I.

[Jay Croucher]

Just lost Tucker Cross for the year.

[Matthew Berry]

But you have Brock Bowers.

[Jay Croucher]

It's ridiculous. I have my my three superstars JSN and Monroe Brock Bowers none on by yeah we'll stop you.

[Matthew Berry]

I agree. I agree you're a 45 point favor a chubby stomping. Yes exactly. I will be your leather son but here's what I will say about Tory Bunny.

[Connor Rogers]

Oh Lord keep it open and close it out.

[Matthew Berry]

Leather bunnies Pretty good.

[Connor Rogers]

Very good. Listen we got all your start sit dilemmas hopefully answered here. We're going to start with Trevor Lawrence against that Texans defense Jay that the the markets fear the this proposition for Jacksonville.

[Jay Croucher]

They should top three defense in Houston and the Jags. I don't trust that offense to be resilient against the late defense. Trevor Lawrence, the thing you mentioned earlier Matthew where he is kind of cheating the system a little bit. Not cheating the system. He's adding value with his legs and getting into the end zone with these rushing touchdowns which is propping up otherwise suspect production. But I think he can probably do better than Trevor Lawrence this week against the Texans defense.

[Matthew Berry]

I'm closing the traveler out to your point. This Houston Texans defense even with Dave and this is why I think they're probably favored even with Davis Mills under center. Eleven and a half fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. That's what they're allowing. That is the best in the NFL or the lowest in the NFL. You see it right there and they're better than the Broncos or the Bills or the Chargers or the Rams. The Texans have just shut down everyone their top five pass defense and yards per game, yards per pass attempt and the Jag to your point like I just again Trevor Lawrence when he's had good fantasy success. It's been these rushing touchdowns which are just based on sort of like he's not Josh Allen, he's not Lamar Jackson. Like, I don't know that you can count on. So, you know, like, he is mobile, but he's mobile in a Justin Herbert sort of way. You know, not in a like a guy you use around the goal line all the time. He's not Jackson Dart, I guess, is my point. So I'm a QB21 this week. I'm closing it out. I just, I don't want him against the Texans even if they do win.

[Connor Rogers]

Yes. All right, moving over to running backs. David Montgomery against your Washington commanders. Matthew, believe it or not, under 12 points in four of his past five games. For someone that is typically so reliable in fantasy.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. And by the way, I'm keeping it open on Dave Montgomery. I get it. Like last couple of days it hasn't been great. He's a little bit more touchdown dependent than you'd like. But now he gets Washington. Now he gets the Cincinnati east is what he gets in terms of a defense. My commanders, My commanders over the last four weeks have given up 115 rushing yards per game to running backs. They're giving up five yards per carry. Detroit is a nine and a half point favorite. I bet you they close higher than that as well. I would, I would take the Lions giving nine and a half in this one. I think I just, I think the commanders after last week, I think they've given up. They lost Jaden Daniels. They're so beat up. They're beat up on both sides of the ball. Their defense has been quietly hurt as a defense that wasn't good to begin with has had a lot of injuries over the last couple of weeks in this season as well. And so I just think there's a very good chance Montgomery falls into the end zone in this one. I'm at running back 19 this week. Top 20 play. I'm keeping it open.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, the games where he faces when they're up so much that they have the run script to just keep pounding and to get him into the end zone. And so this feels like a Dave Montgomery 15 carry type of.

[Connor Rogers]

By the way, I don't know where this came from, but Sean Krakowski said worst case scenario, Barry runs the board, squeaks into the playoffs and wins the league. Oh my God, the braggler is born. Yeah, I don't even know where this came from, but I don't either.

[Matthew Berry]

I don't either.

[Jay Croucher]

I'll Put an end to this this week.

[Matthew Berry]

Yes.

[Jay Croucher]

Okay.

[Connor Rogers]

Are you paying bots?

[Matthew Berry]

I should. Maybe. I'm not, but I'd like to. Yeah. So if you'd like to apply for a bot position to be part of the Barry army online.

[Jay Croucher]

Leather bottom.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. Some leather bots. Anyway. Yeah. The Braggler would be unbelievable. Yeah, it's.

[Connor Rogers]

I wouldn't do the show next year.

[Matthew Berry]

Nor do I. But you don't have the upside. You don't. I, I just. I don't have the horses. There are years where, you know, look, I'm. I'm. I'm going through the motions. Right. I picked up Cedric Tillman, I picked up Devon Bailey. In our league again, there's no one available.

[Jay Croucher]

Right.

[Matthew Berry]

I picked up these guys. By the way, during the commercial break this hilarious. I was so convincing on Adnai Mitchell that Jay actually picked him up while I was looking at him trying to decide if I want to drop somebody on this team that my team so terrible. I have Tyrod Taylor, Isaiah Davis and Mason Taylor. So I just like, I can't get a fourth jet. But it sort of tells you how my season's going, right? There's a limit.

[Connor Rogers]

I like the one and a half line, but for you it's three and a half.

[Matthew Berry]

The three and a half, by the way. And none of them are Garrett Wilson.

[Connor Rogers]

Wow.

[Jay Croucher]

Or Justin Fields.

[Matthew Berry]

Or Justin Fields. That's how terrible my team is. So I. The. The leather. The chubby leather daddies picked up Adnai Mitchell, but I just, they're. I'm going through the motions for the competitiveness of the league and to try to, you know, have a respectful showing. But I don't have.

[Jay Croucher]

I don't have, you know, Lamar Jackson coming back to help the one on five Ravens make the playoffs.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, I don't. I don't have the horses.

[Jay Croucher]

Yes. Raise the flags. Jay's going to squash some grapes. The likes of which have never been done.

[Matthew Berry]

Oh, yeah. My grapes will be squashed.

[Jay Croucher]

Looks that way. We.

[Matthew Berry]

We squishy grapes.

[Jay Croucher]

We won't be kneeling up 30.

[Matthew Berry]

No, no, no. You'll run it up.

[Jay Croucher]

I don't know if you said like 2007 Patriots, but that's who we'll be watching video.

[Matthew Berry]

I think you are literally like a 40 point favorite. Like some, like in terms of projection juggernaut, your team is great. My team is not Quintean Judkins.

[Jay Croucher]

And now he's going up against his team of no players left. That's right.

[Connor Rogers]

Quinn and Williams. That's for sure. In that one yeah, Our next running back.

[Matthew Berry]

Guys, it's a theme of my, of my team is that I have. So like my Browns player, I don't have Quinchun Judkins. I have Harold Fannin and Cedric Tillman.

[Connor Rogers]

And David Joku stays.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, exactly. David and Joku stays. Like I have. I have all the players you don't want on the bad teams.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, it's a shame. Everyone was banned from taking Quintean Juggins in the first 120 picks of our draft.

[Matthew Berry]

Great. It was a great pick. Yeah. No question. All right.

[Connor Rogers]

J.K. dobbins.

[Matthew Berry]

Yes, sir.

[Connor Rogers]

He's got the Raiders, but he also only has eight and a half points per game in his last four. Is there any way you're still starting him, Matthew?

[Matthew Berry]

I am. I'm actually going to keep it open. First off, same sort of argument here as Dave Montgomery. Broncos are a nine and a half point favorite, Right. They're home against Las Vegas. Since week three, no team in the NFL, no team in the sport has allowed more rushing touchdowns than the Las Vegas Raiders. And so J.K. dallas, it's weird because he's actually run really well. The problem is he's not involved in the passing game and he's, and I don't want to say he's been vultured. It's not like they get on the three yard line and they pull him for, you know, somebody else. It's just like they've been doing these dumb swing passes to RJ Harvey on the eight and he gets in there. RJ Harvey gets four touches a game, but three of them go for touchdowns. It's just, it's kind of super annoying. But over the past five games, Dobbins is 71%, 71% of the Broncos red zone rush attempts. Like when they get in close, they like Dobbins, they trust him. It's just been, it's been some bad blocking, just some weird fluky play calling. So I don't think there's anything in the underlying skill set of the usage that's changed. Like he hasn't been used. He's just, he's a touchdown dependent RB2. But in a game at home against Las Vegas where they're almost 10 point favorites, I think he gets into the end zone. This week I was a top 20 player. I'm keeping it open.

[Jay Croucher]

It's funny looking at that graphic of teams that have allowed the most rushing touchdowns because it's basically like, all right, Raiders won. Did you play Jonathan Taylor?

[Connor Rogers]

Yep.

[Matthew Berry]

You did.

[Jay Croucher]

Number two, Tennessee. Did you play Jonathan Taylor. Oh yeah, you played him twice. So it's basically a Jonathan Taylor list. But I do think the Dobbins to your point, like a lot of this is just one it's weirdness where the Broncos just keep playing these weird games. Like the Giants game is just weird. The Houston game was weird. They're playing from behind, having to throw right. And then the one game where they were playing in front is RJ Harvey getting all the touchdowns. So yeah, I think Dobbins, I think he settles in as a rock solid RB2.

[Connor Rogers]

All right guys, how about Alvin Camara that ends up not being moved as expected at the deadline. He's got the Panthers. This one is the worst of all we've mentioned so far. Three straight games under seven points. Matthew, I don't even know if the question might be are you even consider dropping him at some point?

[Matthew Berry]

I just, I don't know how. Again, obviously depends on your roster construction, what your league is, the depth, what you need.

[Connor Rogers]

You are not dropping.

[Matthew Berry]

But it's just like it's a bad team. And he just doesn't look like the guy that we remember. Right. He's averaging career lows and receiving yards per game target share this season. What's kept his fantasy value afloat the last couple of years has been like he's been this PPR merchant, but that's now Chris Olavi on this offense and so, so he has no explosiveness. Last five weeks he's running back 41 in points per game. Are you keeping a guy that's not even top 40? Like, are you keeping a running back that can't even crack the top 40 on an offense where there's not a lot of competition for touches? Like I just. We love Alvin Kamara, but you know, he's got one game in the last five with double digit fantasy points and so, and they're not even using like 11 touches per game. It just doesn't feel like this offense under Tyler Shock. I just, I'm closing it out on Alvin Camara. I have if, and by the way, if he were available in my league, not our league, because our league, we just had a, we just had a bidding war of Adnai Mitchell. But, but in normal leagues, if Camara was on the waiver wire, I wouldn't pick him up.

[Connor Rogers]

I don't think I would.

[Matthew Berry]

He's, he's like, he's like a poor man's Devon Singletary. No, but I mean like he's something like that. Like he's just sort of like he's Just kind of like a. But he's just a snoozy flex play that you hope finds the end zone. There's just.

[Connor Rogers]

They don't score.

[Matthew Berry]

Right. There's not enough of a floor there.

[Jay Croucher]

Like Ezekiel Elliott on the Pats.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, exactly. Tyrone Tracy from Aloha Bricks. He asks Alvin Kamara or Tyrone Tracy rest of the season, I'll say Tyrone Tracy.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. I think the Giants will be in the red zone more than the Saints and that's how I answered that question. That sounds like Singletary looked great last week. Tyrone Tracy's opportunity should get a little better.

[Matthew Berry]

By the way, I just said Aloha Bricks. He's asking. I don't know if he's. It's Aloha Bricks is a he. So I apologize. There's a. There's. You know, I just know you are. We. Yeah, we don't know the gender of Aloha Bricks. We just know Aloha Bricks is one of the regulars.

[Jay Croucher]

Yes, it's true. By the way, do you guys know that the Carolina Panthers are like heavy favorites to go to 6 and 4, have a better record than the Chiefs?

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Jay Croucher]

There's a chance they could host a playoff game and be 10 point underdogs against the Lions.

[Matthew Berry]

Keep pounding.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, I was just gonna say keep pounding.

[Jay Croucher]

Unbelievable.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

All right, let's go to the wide receivers, guys.

[Matthew Berry]

Roman, Bryce Young, mvp.

[Jay Croucher]

I don't think so.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

Roma Dunes.

[Matthew Berry]

You could take that.

[Jay Croucher]

I don't want to.

[Matthew Berry]

It's just like. It's like your 80 to 1 giants bet last year or your Saints to make the playoffs bet this year.

[Jay Croucher]

Bryce Young is more likely to get benched than win MVP this year. Bryce Young's likely to win mvp.

[Matthew Berry]

Enough.

[Connor Rogers]

Bryce Young, Roma Dunes is next. Yeah, the goose egg is probably what you're thinking, but it's actually been under six points in three of his past four games. After such a hot start for Roma Dunes here, Matthew, but it just seems hard to imagine a world where you could sit Roma Dunes a. Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

And I'm not going to. I get it. Like, it's been tough, but I just feel like. Yeah, to your point, it's a great matchup. You see it right there on your screen. He's my wide receiver. 17. I'm obviously keeping it open on Roma. Dunze, you mentioned the Giants and that matchup. Connor. They're giving up the seven post fantasy points to opposing wide receivers receivers. They've given up at least one touchdown to a wide receiver in every game this year. But two and so Dunes, I understand that it's. They've had some fluky games and like, suddenly, you know, DJ Moore's throwing to Caleb Williams and they. They've done some, you know, sort of goofy stuff here. But prior to last week, Dunes had only one game this entire season with a target share under 22%. He's still the focal point of this passing offense. It's too good of an offense. He's too good of a player. I'm keeping it open.

[Connor Rogers]

And you forgot the most important thing in his favor. He has a dad on Twitter that's not happy.

[Matthew Berry]

Oh, there you go. And if there's angry dads, it's a great variable.

[Connor Rogers]

The squeaky wheel dad. Receiver.

[Matthew Berry]

Dad is undefeated. Is un. But. And what's interesting is, is that the most, to me, the most famous one, the one that started the trend, Odell. Odell Beckham Senior, immediately wins the Super Bowl. Well, and I mean, not just that, but like. No, that's why they got rid of Baker. Yeah, it's really like, it's unbelievable when you think about sort of the Browns organization. And so that tweet, you know, in the cut up of the YouTube videos, is what sort of like, led to Baker Mayfield leaving the Cleveland Browns. And Mayfield obviously bounced around a little bit until now. He's like, you know, an MVP candidate this year, legitimately an MVP candidate, and about ready to sign an extension that probably will make him the highest paid quarterback in NFL history. Whereas the Browns currently have the most expensive quarterback in NFL history sitting on their benchmark. And they're in quarterback purgatory. They've got four quarterbacks. They don't know what they're doing. Like, no, it's honest. Other than Deshaun Watson. It set them down the path to try to desperately get Deshaun Watson, and that's obviously been a disaster on every possible level. And now they're trying to figure it out with Dylan Gabriel and maybe Shedeur Sanders. They trade Joe Flacco within the division. Joe Flacco leaves Cleveland and suddenly becomes.

[Jay Croucher]

Like, alliance with Kenny Pickett rose for.

[Connor Rogers]

400 yards for the first time in his life. You can't make it up.

[Matthew Berry]

He's averaging over 30 points a game with the Bengals. It's not his fault. Like, right, if. Anyway, if the Bengals can play defense, those tickets would have cashed of yours.

[Jay Croucher]

Yes.

[Matthew Berry]

All your Bengals tickets.

[Jay Croucher]

Yes. To win the super bowl.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

Tedro McMillan next up on our list, under 50 receiving yards in three of his last four games here, Jay. But the bottom line Is he still gets the looks. T Max still gets the looks.

[Jay Croucher]

It feels like he's had so many almost moments, but he hasn't really exploded for that TMAC game that we've been waiting for. He's getting the targets. I mean it was a little fraudulent, the Buffalo game because they're playing from behind as a fake game after the first half, got 10 targets and was from Andy Dalton. I think the issue is that they just. They're so effective running the ball and that's the identity of the team and they want to run the ball. And against the Saints where they're six point favorites, they're likely going to have the game script to be able to do that. I'm still expecting that we're going to have this 140 yard, two touchdown game from T Mac when Bryce Young is playing in comeback mode. But. But it's a little concerning. That's been nine games and he hasn't had that game yet.

[Matthew Berry]

It's a little concerning, but it's also like as you watch it, like we love the talent. Right. Well, there's no question about ted arrow and McMillan's talent. Yeah. So the quiet and it just feels like they just haven't been like. It just feels like, you know, there's like he's missing by inches.

[Connor Rogers]

He can be Nico Collins.

[Matthew Berry]

That's right.

[Connor Rogers]

If everything just worked out right. And honestly, C.J. stroud's better than Bryce Young.

[Jay Croucher]

Right.

[Connor Rogers]

Relax. But like in theory, the player could be Nico Collins.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. So I just. The talent is too good. The target share is too significant. 38% target share over the last two games for Tedron McMillan. Then you think about this Saints defense. The matchup is so good. Second most touchdown passes allowed on deep passes. So Tedro McMillan, who is obviously not only the number one option, but the number one option deep for Carolina. He's had multiple deep targets in every single game this year but one. I'm at wide receiver 24. I'm keeping it open. I get the question. But I'm banking on the talent in the matchup here.

[Connor Rogers]

Our next wide receiver, guys, the man that there was a bidding war for in the league of assholes, Pop Douglas. He's got the Bucs.

[Matthew Berry]

He's a chubby lather daddy.

[Connor Rogers]

Chubby, yes. New team member of the chubby.

[Jay Croucher]

I was playing defense, just didn't want anyone else to have him. He'll be on my bench this week.

[Connor Rogers]

20 points last week. Not crazy utilization, but that should improve with the injury to k' Shawn Booty. J Where Douglas should be a factor.

[Jay Croucher]

This week, he should. It's still just such a strange Patriots passing game to figure out. Like I really thought Stefon Diggs was going to ignite and that just largely hasn't happened. And then catch on Booty to your point, injured, but he's been taking up a share of the offense. Hunter Henry kind of comes in and out. The running back situation is very confusing to say the least. And now they get this Bucks defense. Bucks coming off of by Bucks two and a half point favorites. Bucs have been excellent on defense this season and while they are somewhat of a pass final defense, the past defense has been better than it has been in years past a bit healthier overall. So I just Pop Douglas said. What's he going to give you? What's the median outcome for pop Douglas like 4 for 40, that type of game.

[Connor Rogers]

So you hope for 6 for 45. Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. I mean to your point about Tampa Bay, by the way, while they've been a pass funnel defense, they've actually been pretty good against the slot. Right? The fifth fewest yards per reception to the slot this year are the Tempe Buccaneers. Pop Douglas. Like he's made some big splashy plays. Right. You know, they've targeted him down the field a little more than you would think. But like even last week where he had like a great game, he had a 33% route participation. So you're basically banking on these big plays. And it's weird that it's him and not Stefon Diggs that's getting this, but you just feel like this pendulum is going to swing here a little bit. I agree. More opportunity this week with Keshan Booty potentially out. And we'll see the rookie Kyle Williams a little bit more. But you've still got Stephon Diggs. Feels like it's been forever since we've heard from Hunter Henry. Got to figure he's going to get more involved this week. I just. I'm closing it out on Demario Douglas. He's my wide receiver 46. Just. Just the usage isn't there. He's not a big red zone target either. I just. I do think you should start him against me though. No. Just for fun.

[Jay Croucher]

No, no. I'll stop Jason.

[Matthew Berry]

Okay. And I'm on ra but Adnai Mitchell throw. Give him a chance.

[Jay Croucher]

I'll be on my bench as well. No, no. You got the eye list.

[Connor Rogers]

Our last one, TJ Hawkinson is our tight end. He's got the Ravens. He's only got two games with double digit points this season. But even worse, Matthew, it's been non factor when J.J. mcCarthy starts.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah three. Here's his yardage total in his three. J.J. mcCarthy starts 15, 12 and 11. Like he hasn't had 16 receiving yards in a J.J. mcCarthy you haven't seen right there. I haven't tight end 17 this week so I'm closing it out. Hasn't had a game this entire year. Obviously multiple quarterbacks have played for the Vikings this year but has yet to have a game with more than 50 receiving yards. And it's not a great matchup against the Ravens. Baltimore Last 4 weeks 7th fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends. I think the Ravens are getting healthier and better and so I just. Yeah, I have him at tight end 17. I'm closing it out on the Hockler.

[Connor Rogers]

All right, we are going to go to break. Pete's telling me he has a tweet for me. Oh, a question. You guys can read this one.

[Jay Croucher]

Jonathan 7. Can Conor's dad send an angry tweet to get him on Sunday's show? Yeah, there you go. The people have spoken.

[Matthew Berry]

To be very clear, Jonathan Medici. We and by we I mean me. Jay doesn't like him but me and I have more power than Jay when it comes to the Sunday show. I would love to have Connor on the Sunday show. We would love to have Connor on the Sunday show. We've discussed it before. The problem is is that Connor Rogers, as you know, the hardest working man in show business and I use show business in quotes. He does the pre and post game with Sny.

[Connor Rogers]

I'm a Jets draft enthusiast.

[Matthew Berry]

He's a Jeff drafts and jets draft enthusiast. So he's not available to us on Sunday but we would love him to come be with us on Sunday maybe one day.

[Jay Croucher]

Bricks is a man.

[Matthew Berry]

Okay. Yes. All right.

[Connor Rogers]

And said he's on the big brother.

[Matthew Berry]

All right, let's go. Aloha, bro.

[Jay Croucher]

Oh boy. Good stuff.

[Connor Rogers]

You guys are the best. Let's take one more break here. We got back to the futures, our favorite awards and futures bets right after this.

[Matthew Berry]

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[Connor Rogers]

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[Matthew Berry]

Bets.

[Connor Rogers]

If your bet wins, download the app and use promo code ffhh when you sign up. DraftKingsports.

[Jay Croucher]

The Crown is yours.

[Connor Rogers]

Back to the futures. Jay, what do you like taking Baker.

[Jay Croucher]

Mayfield 161 to win MVP. Bit of a forgotten man in this race there. 51 to get the 1 seed, the Bucks. And Baker plays Drake May. Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford. The next three weeks, he can kill off three of the guys in front of him by himself.

[Connor Rogers]

I'm looking at the MVP race as well there, Jay, but I'm going to back Matthew Stafford at +550. I think he's been every bit as good as the three guys in front of him this year. The Rams are going to roll the second half of the season. I don't know why he's priced this.

[Jay Croucher]

I think he would win a vote held today.

[Matthew Berry]

I'm going Lamar Jackson at 22 to 1. I'm sorry. Lamar Jackson should never be 22 to 1 to win an MVP. If he brings them back and they end up winning the division, which easily could happen when you think about their schedule and the rest that division. He's Lamar Jackson. He should not be 22 to 1. That's my argument there. So I'm taking Lamar Jackson to win another MVP. You know, at 22 to 1. MV3. MV3 as that music means it's closing time. You don't have to go home, but you can't stay here. For Jay and Connor, I'm Matthew. We'll see you tomorrow. Peace out.

[Connor Rogers]

Applebee's new grilled cheese cheeseburger is so cheesy.

[Matthew Berry]

Wanna try the cheese pull?

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. I can't believe you get this. And another entree plus an Appetizer for just 25 bucks.

[Matthew Berry]

That's why I always come to Applebee's.

[Connor Rogers]

For their 2 for 25 deal. Limited time. Price participation in selection may vary.

[Matthew Berry]

Tax and gratuity excluded.