Week 12 Start/Sit: Trevor Lawrence, Quinshon Judkins, Jordan Addison + Shedeur Sanders named starting QB

Summary

Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry — Episode Summary

Date: November 19, 2025
Episode Focus: Week 12 Start/Sit — Trevor Lawrence, Quinshon Judkins, Jordan Addison, Shedeur Sanders named starting QB

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Overview

In this lively Wednesday episode, Matthew Berry and co-hosts Connor Rogers and Jay Croucher break down all things fantasy football for Week 12, focusing on start/sit decisions, notable injury and suspension news, rookie quarterback shakeups, and playoff strategies. The show delivers Berry’s signature mix of stats, banter, listener questions, and “love/hate” analysis, always with an eye to maximizing fantasy playoff potential.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

Bengals Offense Shakeup: Ja’Marr Chase Suspension & Joe Burrow’s Status

[04:12] – [08:20]

• Ja’Marr Chase suspended: Spitting on Jalen Ramsey results in a one-game suspension, directly impacting Bengals fantasy value.

  • Connor Rogers: “You take away a guy that’s basically a third of your offense right there.”

• Tee Higgins Bump: Without Chase, Higgins has performed as a strong WR1 in past games, but faces tough coverage (Patriots’ Christian Gonzalez).

• Joe Flacco downgrade: Flacco’s value drops minus Chase, and given the Patriots’ improved passing defense.

• Future at QB: Panel doubts Burrow returns this season given Bengals’ lack of playoff prospects and concern for his health behind a weak O-line.

  “Joe Burrow is the franchise. Like, he is the franchise...why would you risk it?” — Connor Rogers [06:37]

• Waiver Wire Deep Dive: Andre Iosivas becomes a desperation play; “Wilson over Iosivas” preferred if choosing between Michael Wilson (Cardinals) and Andre Iosivas.

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Around the League: Injury & Roster News

[13:14] – [15:19], [29:33] – [30:25]

• Cardinals Backfield: Trey Benson’s practice window opens, while Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) is out for the year (ACL surgery); Falcons likely to lean run-heavy.

• Drake London (ATL): Not expected to play (“very unlikely”).

• Tyler Algier, Bijan Robinson: Both inherit added value in Atlanta’s offense with Penix out and run-heavy script incoming.

  “I think Tyler Algier becomes very flex viable...I think they go run heavy.” — Matthew Berry [13:53]

• Josh Jacobs (Packers): Day-to-day, known for playing through injuries. Watch status but expect tough decision-making for fantasy managers. [32:56]

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Start/Sit: Quarterback Breakdown

Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars)

[16:27] – [18:28]

• Berry and Panel: Not a QB1, only Superflex/2QB viable this week.
• Has only one multi-TD game since week 3; Cardinals D is “plucky” and allows few passing TDs. Ranked QB17.

  “I’m closing it out on him in standard one quarterback leagues. It’s just, he hasn’t been good since week three.” — Connor Rogers [16:40]

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Shedeur Sanders (Browns) — Rookie QB Debut

[19:18] – [21:41]

• Matchup: Browns vs Raiders in Las Vegas (positive environment — indoors).
• Sanders’ mobility could offer fantasy upside, but “no idea” what to expect in first start; Browns’ WRs not startable, but RB Judkins could benefit from run-heavy plan.

  “Here’s what I’ll say about Shedeur, I got no idea. I literally have no idea.” — Matthew Berry [20:04]

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Running Back Start/Sit & Trends

Quinshon Judkins (Browns)

[19:18] – [23:26]

• Volume play (17+ touches in 7 of 8 completed games), favorable matchup (Raiders weak vs run), ranked RB22.
• “Reluctantly keeping it open” due to role, though lacks pass-catching and seems strictly dependent on volume.

Woody Marks (Texans)

[23:26] – [25:58]

• Buffalo gives up big rushing numbers; Marks trending upward in snaps/touches but production has lagged.
• “Keeping it open”, ranked RB25; buy-low candidate for trade deadlines.

  “He is clearly taking over the role of starting running back for the Houston Texans.” — Connor Rogers [24:34]

Tyrone Tracy (Colts)

[29:33] – [30:36]

• Harsh matchup: Detroit’s run D allows fewest RB fantasy points; closing it out, only desperation flex in deep leagues.

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Wide Receiver Start/Sit & Trends

Romeo Doubs (Packers)

[30:36] – [32:25]

• Trending as Jordan Love’s top option (28%+ target share last 4/6 games).
• Doubs is a mid-tier WR3, “keeping it open” as WR26.

Jordan Addison (Vikings)

[35:24] – [37:53]

• Struggling with J.J. McCarthy at QB (8.3 PPG in his three starts, only 32% catch rate from McCarthy).
• Still sees targets and end zone looks; ranked WR29, “reluctant open.”

  “He only needs one (deep shot) to make your day...he’s a low-end WR3.” — Connor Rogers [36:41]

Rasheed Shahid (Seahawks)

[39:20] – [40:54]

• Target share low (<12%); even in smash matchup vs Titans, volume/projected game script is unimpressive. “Closing it out.”

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Notable Tight End: Hunter Henry (Patriots)

[40:54] – [42:13]

• Bengals D: Worst vs TEs, 70+ yards allowed to a TE in every game. Despite poor recent usage, Henry is ranked TE12 (“keeping it open” as low-end TE1).

  “You had me at Cincinnati...no team allows more yards, no teams allowed more touchdowns and no team allows more Fantasy points to opposing tight ends than your Cincinnati Bengals.” — Matthew Berry [41:05]

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Listener Questions & Notable Moments

• Choosing Michael Wilson over Iosivas (Cardinals WRs) for Week 12. [09:01]
• “Jamar Chase managers...you drink for free today.” [09:43]
• Matthew Berry’s recurring baldness/hair transplant banter — proposed getting Trevor Lawrence’s hair as a joke poll. [19:02, 44:09]
• Extended segment of witty banter and inside jokes about “ponies” and “Comrade Maddie.” [11:13, 34:48]
• Fun with fantasy football chat themes: e.g. “Valiant Vincent waiting for Jay to rename his daughters Alec and Pierce.” [34:12]
• Listeners’ strong engagement drives light-hearted mudslinging and relatable fantasy pain.

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Blind Date Segment (Running Back Utilization Deep Dives)

[47:27] – [53:03]

• The hosts guess mystery RBs based on utilization and schedule, highlighting buy-low and playoff-caliber backs:

  • Travion Henderson (Patriots): Easiest ROS schedule, strong hold even when Stevenson returns.
  • Alvin Kamara (Saints): Heavy usage but middling production; attractive rest-of-season schedule.
  • Chase Brown (Bengals), Derrick Henry (Ravens), Saquon Barkley (Eagles): All benefit from easier schedules ahead, making them interesting trade or flex targets.

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Futures and Betting Segment

[56:05] – [57:00]

• Cowboys over 7.5 wins (Jay): Favorable path despite tough stretch, likely to clear eight wins.
• Chargers to miss playoffs (Connor): Cites tough post-bye schedule, plus 130 value.
• Titans under 2.5 wins (Berry): No easy games left, likely 2-win team.

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Notable Quotes

• “If you sell out, sell out big. That’s why I wrote Crocodile Dundee 3… bought me a house.” — Matthew Berry [19:05]
• “He is the franchise... also, another proud fantasy life investor.” — Connor Rogers on Joe Burrow [06:37]
• “I just, I don’t know, I’m encouraged by God. If you squint. I’m talking myself into it. You watch me talk myself into it live on air.” — Matthew Berry on Jordan Addison [37:04]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Bengals/Chase News & Fallout: [04:12] – [08:55]
• Listener Questions (Wilson vs. Iosivas): [09:01]
• Penix/Atlanta News: [13:14] – [15:19]
• Trevor Lawrence Analysis: [16:27] – [18:28]
• Shedeur Sanders Starter Announcement & Browns Outlook: [19:18] – [21:41]
• Judkins vs. Raiders: [19:18] – [23:26]
• Woody Marks Outlook: [23:26] – [25:58]
• RB/WR/TE Start/Sit Lightning Round: [29:33] – [43:54]
• Blind Date RB Utilization Segment: [47:27] – [53:03]
• Futures Segment: [56:02] – [57:00]

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Tone and Style

Classic Matthew Berry: sharp, self-deprecating, full of in-jokes and friendly ribbing, with detailed statistical analysis, practical advice, and a focus on the real-world pain points facing fantasy football players at playoff crunch time. The crew doesn’t shy from tangents (hair transplants, wardrobe malfunctions, and ponies, anyone?), but always circles back to actionable advice.

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TL;DR

• Tee Higgins is a strong WR1 in Chase’s absence, but Flacco is downgraded at QB.
• Joe Burrow unlikely to return this season.
• Quinshon Judkins (Browns) and Woody Marks (Texans) both volume RB2s this week thanks to matchup and usage.
• Trevor Lawrence and most Browns WRs are sits.
• Rome Doubs and Jordan Addison are low-end WR3 “keeps it open,” but with little upside.
• Hunter Henry is a TE1 streamer against NFL’s worst TE defense (Bengals).
• Key running backs (Henderson, Kamara, Brown, Henry, Barkley) profiled for easiest ROS schedules — strong trade/hold candidates.
• Fun, engaging, plenty of chat, and useful for navigating a playoff push.

Transcript

[Matthew Berry]

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[Connor Rogers]

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[Connor Rogers]

Kansas City in two weeks.

[Jay]

You're not gonna make it to super bowl week. The cold in KC is gonna kill you.

[Connor Rogers]

It very well might.

[Matthew Berry]

You should wear one of those caps on football night, like with the flaps over the years.

[Connor Rogers]

That'd be flappy, Matty.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, with wardrobe. If you're out there, give it a shot.

[Connor Rogers]

Can I tell you, they gave me, like a cap, you know? Cause, like, Devin was wearing one. It was so cold in Florida.

[Jay]

Everybody gets cold.

[Connor Rogers]

We were freezing. And so some people wore caps and so I put one on and I'm like, I don't know. I'm not really a cap guy, but I'm so freezing. What do you think? I put it on. And Kim, makeup artist here, you know, we all love Kim. Kim takes one look at me and goes, yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

No.

[Producer Pete]

Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry.

[Matthew Berry]

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Happy hour. A happy Wednesday, a happy backup producer Pete Day on the set.

[Connor Rogers]

We got a lot of news today too, as well. So it's like Pete may actually have to pay attention. Pete may have to take his fingers off of the.

[Matthew Berry]

You're asking a lie here right now.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, exactly.

[Jay]

We also have a frazzled backup producer. Pete today hit a pothole on his way in. There was an incident on the roads.

[Matthew Berry]

Chaos.

[Jay]

He's blaming the pothole. I would look at the man in the mirror because he's the one who hit the pothole.

[Connor Rogers]

Well, listen, much like this show, he wasn't paying attention to the road. There you go. It's on brand for Backup producer Pete, who has his feet on the counter.

[Matthew Berry]

And just kind of rolling the tape. Yeah, yeah, we got it. Don't worry. Keep it open at Wednesday your start. Sick questions. Blind date.

[Connor Rogers]

Blind date will be back, of course.

[Matthew Berry]

America's favorite segment with a focus on the rest of this season's schedule. And back to the futures. We always have our favorite futures bets at the end of Wednesday's show. But like Matthew teased a lot of ROTOR World player news to get through here. As we're still discussing this incident between Jalen Ramsey and Ja' Marr Chase. Mike Tomlin, I think, had the appropriate response. Take a listen.

[Connor Rogers]

Mike Ramsey plays with an edge. He has his whole career when something like that happens on Sunday. Because the play before they had to be separated was your message to him to try to simply remove himself from that stuff. And how do you, as a competitor, how do you sort of keep him from sort of, you know, I have no message. If someone spits in your face, do what comes natural. That's right.

[Matthew Berry]

I think it was. Perfect answer.

[Connor Rogers]

It's a perfect Mike. People have said this for years and years and years that if and when Mike Tomlin ever decides to retire from coaching football, he will have many offers to be a broadcaster. And he should do it because he will be great at it.

[Matthew Berry]

He should take his seat on fantasy fantasy football happy hour.

[Connor Rogers]

Oh, open invitation. He's the one who should do the.

[Jay]

Pounding podcast with George Kittle, not you, Mike Tomlin.

[Connor Rogers]

And George Kittle said, I'll be the. I'll be the traffic cop.

[Jay]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

I'll be the Connor Rogers.

[Matthew Berry]

It'd be more accidents in 30 minutes.

[Jay]

You'd be diverting people off the Brooklyn Bridge.

[Connor Rogers]

I'd be like. I'd be like Pete this morning.

[Jay]

Yeah. Into the water. Into the water, George.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. So anyway, Tomlin's great. I totally get that. But I will just say this. Jamar Chase is a proud fantasy life investor. I stand with Jamar Chase.

[Matthew Berry]

Wow. That's a brand.

[Connor Rogers]

That's a.

[Matthew Berry]

That's a bold proclamation.

[Connor Rogers]

I have to listen. I'm not. I'm not condoning the action.

[Matthew Berry]

If you haven't heard, he's suspended for a game.

[Connor Rogers]

He's suspended for fantasy. For spitting on Jalen Ramsey. I'm not condoning the action. I never think you should spit on another man. But I also have to believe that there must have been something really awful said and multiple to generate that.

[Matthew Berry]

Hey, Jama called you the spittler, the spiller.

[Connor Rogers]

Fair enough. I have never spit on another human being. But let's. There is fantasy.

[Jay]

Unfortunately, the investigation revealed there was no second spitter. No, that was what they were relying on in the court of law. It was no second spitter.

[Matthew Berry]

Right?

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

So he suspended a game. The suspension's already been upheld. We've been through the whole process of potential appealment. So now how does it affect the rankings of the Bengals offense, Matthew? Because T. Higgins obviously gets a little bit of a bump here.

[Connor Rogers]

He does get a little bit of a bump. So there's five games that T. Higgins has played without Jamar Chase from 2022 and 2023, all the games last year. And obviously Joe Flacco is the quarterback, not Joe Burrow, which is when this is. So, you know, it's not ideal, but it's what we have to go off of. In those five games, Higgins, you know, averaged 20 fantasy points per game, over 102 yards per game. Like he was the number one wide receiver. Now the downside here is he's likely going to see a decent amount of Christian Gonzalez as they take on the Patriots this week. So could you see he's my wide receiver six. Just to be clear though, I mean Higgins, you're starting, he's a wide receiver one. But like do I think he becomes suddenly Ja' Marr Chase with a blow up game? It's always possible given how much Flacco throws and Higgins talent. But Gonzalez has been pretty good this year. So Higgins is a wide receiver one this week. I think you lower Joe Flacco, you don't love the matchup to begin with. And by the way, 33% of his passing yards so far have gone to Ja' Marr Chase. Like you take away, you take away a guy that's basically a third of your offense right there.

[Jay]

He threw it to him 23 times. The first time against the Steelers, something ridiculous. The jets game, he didn't realize that Teagans existed on the plan, so. Or it might have been the previous game. But in any case, I think kind of interesting thing looking forward here, Connor is like, what do you think the chances that Joe Burrow actually comes back?

[Matthew Berry]

I don't know how you put Joe Burrow on the field this year. This team is not going to be playing for anything.

[Jay]

They're nine point dogs against the Patriots, so they're likely going to be 3 and 8 and done. They're going to make the playoffs from 3 and 8 in the AFC. So I don't know is this a thing like Jayson Tatum coming back from an Achilles where he Wants to prove that he can get out there even if the team doesn't have aspirations to win the title.

[Matthew Berry]

It feels different in the NFL.

[Jay]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

And it feels different for a quarterback that's always getting.

[Connor Rogers]

That's the point. He's there. Like, it'd be one thing if they were in the playoff hunt, but you just think about here's a quarterback that has had a lot of injuries throughout his career and, you know, like, they're not stupid at Cincinnati. Like, they know they've got the worst offensive line in football. So why are. Like, Joe Burrow is the franchise. Like, he is the franchise. Also another proud fantasy life investor. But he is the. He is the franchise. We also stand by Joe Burrow. Yes. This is a Joe Burrow. Yeah, we stand.

[Matthew Berry]

You stand by Jamar Chase.

[Connor Rogers]

I stand by everyone. If you invest money in my company. Yes, I got you. I got your back.

[Jay]

Come invest money. Jalen Ramsey and Jay Croucher Productions.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

Really good. I'd be.

[Jay]

Here we go.

[Connor Rogers]

What I'm going to say, though, so the other thing that's. So anyway, I'd flacco@QB18 just based on both the loss of Chase and the matchup with the Patriots. I will say, you know, if you're desperate and there's potentially that Andre Yosevic becomes sort of interesting. He's had two games this year where he's had over 15% target share and he's averaging 13 fantasy points or over 13 fantasy points in both games where he's had at least a 15% target share. He had one game, the one game that Ja' Marr Chase missed in 2023, that Yosevis was there, you know, kind of part of it. Remember Tyler Boyd had that role a few years ago. He had a 20% target share in that one game. So you just sort of see Yosemite right there. You see what he did in the games where he's seen at least a 15% target share, you know, 13.2, 18. Another one. Like, anyway, like, he's. I have at wide receiver, 38. Like, if you're desperate, like I am in our league. Like, I picked him up this morning for our league for my matchup against Roto Pat. Because I'm, you know, lost Mike Evans. I don't have Cortland Sutton this week. I'm. I'm banged up.

[Jay]

Yeah. The reason I was about Burrow and understand it's not the high watermark of value for Chase or Higgins, but I think there's a real chance that the final month of the season. The starting quarterback is not Joe Burrow and it's not Joe Flacco either. I think that with Flacco, with how he's been banged up, the fact that he was still dealing with the shoulder issue off of the buy, what are they gonna do?

[Connor Rogers]

Jake Browning again?

[Jay]

I just don't think Flacco might not survive behind this offensive line. The fact he's already dealing with. He looked completely done against the Steelers. Yeah, he didn't look like the same guy that he was before the buy when he's playing pretty well. So I just think there is, there is downside risk here. I don't think this team is going to be playing meaningful games the final month of the season. I agree with that.

[Connor Rogers]

I just.

[Jay]

I don't know. I'm not sure Joe Burrow is going to be thrown to jamar chase for 160 yards in week 15 type of thing.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. Ved FF happy hour regular asks and is asking.

[Matthew Berry]

He's a chat, likes to discuss amongst them.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. Which is great. They're going back and forth. He's. So he asked Scott Yoshovich or Michael Wilson? I think the answer is Wilson. Just before we went on air, Amari Dmicardo and Marvin Harrison Jr. Ruled out already for the Cardinals game this Sunday. So. So Wilson do. I think Jacoby Brissette throws it almost 60 times again this Tuck?

[Matthew Berry]

The completioner.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, I mean the completioner, dude. NFL record holder, the completioner. So I don't think that they have the kind of volume that they did last week. But yes, Wilson. To me, Wilson is the answer. And I don't think it's all that close, honestly.

[Jay]

I agree. I hope you got the answer right, Scott, in the chat.

[Matthew Berry]

By the way, if you're trying to manage this as a Ja' Marr Chase manager, you drink for free today.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, I mean, that's tough, right? You've gotten through the buy, you lost Joe Burrow. Like you used a first round pick on Jamar Chase. You lose Joe Burrow, you get through it with Flacco, he sort of saves your season, you get through the bye and then you find out here, week 12, a huge week, obviously, as you're trying to make the playoffs, your guy is suspended. That's a tough break. So anyway, Jamar Chase managers, if you have him on your team, you drink for free. And our league gets Roto Pat, who I play this week. So there you go, amazing timing. It works out sometimes.

[Matthew Berry]

Look at the luck turning for you.

[Connor Rogers]

I will say though, is that not Unbelievable. It is a little bit. Although I will say this, though. I'm mad at all of you guys because Rotopat won the bidding for Emmanuel Wilson. Like, why couldn't someone have.

[Matthew Berry]

Oh, the great bidding war for Emmanuel Wilson.

[Connor Rogers]

Somebody should have stepped up.

[Matthew Berry]

I don't have money left.

[Connor Rogers]

I don't have any money either.

[Matthew Berry]

Idiotically, I'm saying Washington.

[Jay]

The good thing about Rotopat, even though he doesn't have Jamar Chase, he's a die hard St. Louis Cardinals fan and they had a great season, so. It's okay. Ropad's doing okay.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

Anyway, we have another question here from Luke Davis. I like the camera angle with the peacock logo looking like a sweet hat on Matthew.

[Connor Rogers]

That's true. It kind of does. It really does.

[Matthew Berry]

It's like, you know, good call, Luke.

[Jay]

Like, the more, you know, it's actually very distracting.

[Connor Rogers]

It is. Now you say. Now he says that you can't unsee it.

[Jay]

Yeah, that's right. We can't move the logo, but it's immovable.

[Connor Rogers]

But listen, just like we said at the. At the open of the show, I'm not a hat guy. This also does not look good.

[Matthew Berry]

You just gotta find the right hat.

[Connor Rogers]

If Kim the makeup artist were here, she'd be like, yeah, don't you wear.

[Jay]

Like, floppy hats, though?

[Connor Rogers]

No, this was like a. No, this was like. This is like a knit hat. The one from the. It was like, just like a. Yeah, yeah.

[Jay]

One with the ears that flips up by Comrade Maddie.

[Connor Rogers]

Comrade. Stop it. Maybe a beret. Maybe we'll do a beret.

[Jay]

Comrade Maddie.

[Connor Rogers]

How about just, like. You know what they should do? They should. They should invent a wig that's also, like, really warm. So I could wear it and be like, oh, look, Barry's got hair. Nobody would be onto that. No one would be onto that.

[Matthew Berry]

That's the worst disguise.

[Connor Rogers]

We have to move on to the show because obviously Pete hasn't paid attention. Pete should. Pete should be like, no one has stopped us. We've just. I promise you we'll get into fantasy football here. But the last thing I'll say is just whatever random Maddie. Fact is that I thought about this, and I've still thought about this. I got approached, like, two or three years ago by a company that does hair transplants. You know what I mean? Like, they were, like, in Istanbul.

[Jay]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

Well, they just know, like, this is a legit company and they wanted me to, like, do it. And I. I seriously thought about it. I still have. Like, if I did it, I'D obviously.

[Matthew Berry]

How did you not do it? Didn't Brian Urlacher do this?

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, Brian Urlacher did it.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, exactly. So I thought about it. It might have even been the same company that Erlacher did. I forget the name of the company that did it, but my thought was, like, I should do it, like. And I would own it. Obviously. I wouldn't just show up. Like, that was the thing. Erlacher just showed up one day and you're like, wait, what? Where did this all come from? I would own it. I would be like, guys, I've made a deal to try to get myself some hair and you're gonna get to see me through the progress of it. That would be the idea. That would be the pitch.

[Jay]

Right?

[Matthew Berry]

There's also, like, nothing shameful about it. Yes, I look great with my new hair. Although we would ruthlessly make fun of you if you came back next year with hair.

[Jay]

We'd be like, I like that as well. Because the company really going all in on you because if you didn't come back, it'd be a really bad look for the company.

[Connor Rogers]

The business journey.

[Jay]

I'm going on. Oh, wow. It's not coming back.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, it's not easy.

[Jay]

Exactly.

[Matthew Berry]

It's Akira.

[Connor Rogers]

Fashionable Happy Hour with Jay Croucher. Yeah, exactly.

[Matthew Berry]

Akira in the chat goes. What is this show about?

[Jay]

Yeah, we don't know.

[Connor Rogers]

None of us know. I'll tell you what it is. And so keep it open. Close it out. Let's.

[Matthew Berry]

Not yet.

[Connor Rogers]

We're not there yet.

[Matthew Berry]

More Cardinals news.

[Connor Rogers]

Oh, crap.

[Matthew Berry]

Hold on, Pete. We'll get to Michael Penix. More Cardinals news because I actually trashed what's going on in the world. Trey Benson's practice window is open.

[Connor Rogers]

There you go.

[Jay]

I thought we were talking St. Louis Cardinals.

[Connor Rogers]

No, no, no, no.

[Matthew Berry]

And Michael Pennix is out for the year.

[Jay]

Holiday.

[Matthew Berry]

Right.

[Connor Rogers]

So, yeah. So Michael Penn. Here's. This is a tweet from Rap Sheet. Falcons quarterback Michael Pennix Jr. Does in fact need surgery to repair his ACL. With nine months of recovery at least coming, he sought the opinion of experts, including from Dr. Neil. I don't know. El troche. I apologize to Dr. Neil Ellatroche. Ellatroche. Sorry. Dr. Neil Ellatrach. I like Ellatre, though. Like Ashanae Eritrea country. Anyway, Pennix has an ACL sprain, but full reconstruction is needed. So Penix is done for the year. Drake London officially ruled out for this sun. Or unlikely. Very unlikely to play. I don't know if it's been official. He's not going to play. Yeah. So I, you know, I did a radio hit on SiriusXM earlier this morning. They asked me about this question, what I think the Falcons offense looks like. And I, I, I said I think Tyler Algier becomes very flex viable. Bijan is going to get his, but I think they go run heavy. We talked about this a little bit. I don't want to go too much into it yesterday, Jay, but Kirk Cousins just looks done and Mooney's shown me nothing.

[Jay]

Showing you nothing specifically. I like it. I agree. They're going to run the ball as much as humanly possible. So the most difficult matchup against the Saints, I think it's going to look a little bit like how the Panthers offense looked with Bryce Young before Bryce Young got fixed a week ago, seemingly. But yeah, overall, I mean, it's terrible news out of Atlantis. This is the fifth time in 18 years that panicks has had like a.

[Matthew Berry]

Serious, I think it's his third acl, but yeah, he's had multiple, I would call it the fifth serious injury. It's a real shame. We've gone back to Indiana College and then he transferred to Washington and got himself back on track and now here we are again.

[Jay]

I'm an objective person, like to look at the data, so I don't usually believe in curses. The Falcons might be cursed. This is unbelievable. Like what has happened to them this year, really the past, starting from 28. 3. You feel terrible for their fans. So hopefully panic's going to bounce back fully, but it's gonna be the Kirk Cousins show from now on and that's not great.

[Connor Rogers]

Bird down. If there's any positives here, they play the Saints in New Orleans and so this is a game that maybe they can, no pun intended, establish the run.

[Matthew Berry]

All right. Keep it open or close it out. It's what you've all been waiting for.

[Connor Rogers]

No, we got one more though. Oh, no, we're not. We're done now. There's one more piece of news. Right? But you tell me. I thought.

[Matthew Berry]

All right, it's not, it's not now.

[Connor Rogers]

Okay.

[Matthew Berry]

We're doing grounds related. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

Okay. All right, good. Everyone knows I don't pay attention to the pre show meeting. All right.

[Matthew Berry]

You don't even know. Look at the rundown during the show. I actually respect you.

[Connor Rogers]

I never look at the rundown.

[Matthew Berry]

Yes.

[Connor Rogers]

And I'll tell you why. It keeps it fresh for me.

[Matthew Berry]

Right?

[Connor Rogers]

Spontaneous.

[Jay]

That's good. It's great.

[Matthew Berry]

When you're a host of the show.

[Jay]

You'D Be a great host for Pounding with George Hill and Mike Tomlin. Terrific cop who doesn't look at the rundown.

[Matthew Berry]

45 minutes and the show's gone nowhere. Anyways, Trevor Lawrence, he's got the Cardinals.

[Connor Rogers]

Respectfully. Respectfully, I've literally been on live TV or a version of live TV for over 20 years.

[Matthew Berry]

Right.

[Connor Rogers]

Like I don't want to say I can do this in my sleep, but I can do this in my sleep. I might do it right now. I was going to say no, I don't need to come close. That's fair. That's actually fair.

[Matthew Berry]

All right, so Trevor Lawrence, he's got the Cardinals back to back games though with under 160 passing yards right now. Matthew, is he. He's definitely not QB1 territory. We know that. But is he even startable in Super Flex QB2 territory?

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, I mean, I guess. I mean I'm at QB17 so in theory, you know. Yes, he's Superflex 2 quarterback viable in a, in a, in a year where a week, I'm sorry where you've got, you know, Knicks and Mariota and Herbert all out on bye. All three very viable starters in leagues like that. Some people may have been starting tua. We don't know about Rodgers if he's going to play. So yeah, I suppose if you squint he could be super flex viable but I'm closing it out on him in standard one quarterback leagues. It's just he hasn't been good since week three. He's had one game, literally one game with multiple touchdown passes. You know, every once in a while he'll run one in but he's not using his legs in a significant way. It's not a big part of this Jaguars offense. If there's a positive here he does it looks like his pass catches are going to get healthier like you know, he'll Jacoby Myers a little bit more. There's a chance we get Brian Thomas Jr. Back as well. But this Cardinals defense is. Is kind of plucky honestly. Right. They've allowed multiple touchdown passes only twice over the past eight games. Like I just, I don't know. That just doesn't feel like a ton of upside here for Trevor Lawrence the traveler.

[Jay]

Yeah, it's very on brand for the Jags that they just beat the Chargers 35 to 6 which is in a momentous figure three point dogs and still don't really feel that much differently about Trevor Lawrence coming out of him because he wasn't the story the game he didn't play poorly, but he didn't have a great game either. It was more defined by the defense and by the run game. So we'll see. These next two weeks you would expect like going up against the Cardinals and Titans the week after, you'd expect Trevor Lawrence and his Jags offense to light these teams up. Like, these teams do not have good defenses. So this is a stretch for the Jags to go to 8 and 4 to get their offense on track. Jacoby Mayer is more integrated. There is scope for this team and as they get more acclimatized, Liam Cohen's offense, there is upside here. It's just that we haven't seen it from Trevor Connor.

[Connor Rogers]

Have you ever heard the word climatized?

[Matthew Berry]

No, that's a new one.

[Connor Rogers]

That's a new one for Jay. Yeah, I believe that is a word. Acclimatized. It might be.

[Matthew Berry]

I wouldn't put it past you.

[Jay]

Acclimated.

[Connor Rogers]

Acclimated is a word.

[Matthew Berry]

Acclimatized means adapted or prepared for a specific climate, often by controlling the temperature to make it cool.

[Connor Rogers]

There you go.

[Jay]

Sometimes you reach back into the bag.

[Matthew Berry]

You don't know where you're going to find Webster Dictionary.

[Jay]

Noah Webster.

[Connor Rogers]

Noah drinks freelicio Medici says Barry should get hair transplants and grow his hair out like Trevor. I would love that.

[Jay]

I would be opposed to that. Be too jarring. We can't have that.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. With the long flow, the Fabio look, the long flowing locks.

[Matthew Berry]

If you're gonna sell out, sell out all the way.

[Connor Rogers]

I've said that to all the kids. Always when you're sell. If you sell out, sell out big. That's why I wrote Crocodile Dundee 3 bought me a house. God bless Bobby. Big house.

[Matthew Berry]

You ready for the big Shador news?

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, let's go.

[Matthew Berry]

Because we're going to talk Quinshon Judkins against the Raiders. Quinshawn Judkins. Only one top 24 RB finish since week six. Very quietly, by the way. He has not been. Not been rolling as the Browns offense has not either. But Matthew, a little bit of a spark here. Shadur Sanders will start at quarterback for the Browns on Sunday. Probably couldn't ask for a better matchup.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, I mean, like they're playing the Raiders and they're playing the Raiders at Las Vegas. So it's not like they're going to be in windy Cleveland and it's cold. It's going to be inside a dome and it's going to be very, you know, very positive. You think about this Raiders defense, 17th against the pass over the last month, 19th in scoring defense, you know, now Chadur holds the ball a lot. Do I think Max Crosby gets home a few times? Yeah, I do, to be perfectly honest with you. But as it. Here's what I'll say about Chadur, I got no idea. I literally have no idea. Like, could he be good for fantasy because of the rushing? Like, I could see him running around. Like, could he be potentially useful? It's a, you know, it's not a terrible matchup. I can't imagine. I will just say this for me, I can't imagine starting him. I wouldn't be, it wouldn't be crazy if he had a good fantasy day. Like he runs, you know, he runs around. He gets you 45 yards. He throws a touchdown or two. Sure. But I think there's going to be some picks and kind of there's a reason why Sanders fell to the fifth round.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. Which we thought was even. That was too far. But him being a day two ish quarterback probably made more sense. And you could see just he holds the ball for a long time. They got to have a plan for Max Crosby in this game. As much as the Raiders are a punching bag at times, Max Crosby is awesome. And this isn't a team loaded with weapons. So you got to have the right script for him as well to make sure he's not drifting backwards and trying to make these crazy, like, keep it simple for Shadur Sanders. But I actually think he'll be fine in this. This is a nice landing spot for him, especially after a full week of practice.

[Connor Rogers]

Well, exactly. He's going to get the entire week with the ones and so we will see. The people that have defended Shadur Sanders have said that he has given a fair chance. Well, he's now got a full chance. He is the. They've announced him as the starter. He's going to get all the first team reps. It's a decent matchup in a good environment, Jay. So we'll see. From my point of, my point of view, it's going to be fun. Like it's going to be like it's.

[Jay]

Going to be interesting.

[Connor Rogers]

It's going to be compelling. It's going to be compelling. Like it's, you know, this week guy. Something a lot more interesting because he's obviously, obviously he's a very. He is a compelling figure. There's no question.

[Jay]

If this is Dylan Gabriel against the Raiders, no one cares about this.

[Connor Rogers]

No one cares.

[Jay]

No one cares. Now everyone cares about this game, which is good for the product and good for all the viewers. But I think to me the most.

[Connor Rogers]

Interesting thing is are any Browns startable this week?

[Jay]

Quinton Judkins is the only one. So to me, actually he is kind of the most interesting guy here because I don't you're not starting any Browns wide receivers, but I think he, he's.

[Matthew Berry]

An upgrade for them compared to Gabriel who could just not throw the ball outside the numbers.

[Jay]

Sorry. The question to me is he's got.

[Matthew Berry]

A deep but it's how much of.

[Jay]

An upgrade Y so the Browns have been like worst in terms of yards before contact generated for Juggins. Just had no chance behind this offensive line in this offense. I think a big part of that is because they know that Dylan Gabriel can't throw the ball down the field. Opposing defenses do. And so it was just like they were playing five guys on a basketball court and none of them can shoot. Like just the spacing is so cramped for this offense. So maybe shoulder just his threat to move around to throw it a bit deeper than Gabriel did. Maybe that opens up some stuff for Jugkin. So he would be the only guy of any interest.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, you see it there on your screen. I have him ranked it number 22among running backs. So this week in my initial ranks. And so the argument for Quinch on Judkins is his volume, right? He's had at least 17 touches in seven of his eight completed games. He's had four different games with over 20 touches. So just massive volume. And in Chadur Sanders first game as a starter, maybe they lean on him even more. Judkins, that is to try to take some pressure off the young quarterback. Raiders have given up at least 100 yards rushing to a running back in three of their past four games. Like you can run in Las Vegas. Like, I mean, I know Javante Williams didn't have a massive fantasy game, but it's not like there wasn't room to run. And so I am reluctantly keeping it open on Judkins. He doesn't, he doesn't catch passes and we don't know what this offense is going to look like under Sanders. But I do think, I think, you know, I don't know what his prop for rushing attempts is, but I would take the over. Yep.

[Matthew Berry]

Just when we were in on another young running back in Woody Marks who has the Bills this week. He's been under seven points in two of his past three games. Jay, it just feels like the Texans can't consistently run the football this year, which means you'd need Woody Marks to catch a bunch of dump offs.

[Jay]

Yep. I wonder how much of our perception of Marks is skewed though by the fact that Jeffrey Simmons was back in that game for the Titans and he just completely changes what they can do as a defense overall. Like if he's a like he should have been getting some like defensive player the consideration before he got here shouldn't have, you know, not with Garrett and Parsons but the next tier down. And so I think that that it was a tougher matchup because of that than expected. But now he gets a Bills team that just gets eviscerated on the ground repeatedly. So Devon Hn did to them a couple of weeks ago so what Sean Tucker did to them last week. Clearly the Texans are going to have to try and lean on the run because they don't want this game on Davis Mills shoulders going head to head with Josh Allen. So I would still keep it open on Woody Marks, albeit without inspiration.

[Connor Rogers]

You know what, I agree with you Jay. I'm also keeping it open. He's my running back 25 this week the positives of Woody Marks is acclimatized. He's climatized. Sure, climatized. Acclimated.

[Jay]

The user feel like the woodler Look.

[Connor Rogers]

Duane [e-mail] does a great article. I think one of if not the most useful article in fantasy football every week called the utilization report. It's 100% free. FantasyLife.com I'm company man but one of the things that he put in his article this week was just look at the underlying yes, Woody Marks. It has not shown up in the box score just yet, but he is clearly taking over the role of starting running back for the Houston Texans. Over the past two weeks, 77% of the Texans running back touches. He's got an 86% of their goal to go rushing attempts and his two highest snap rates of the season have come in the last two weeks as well. And you think about this Buffalo defense. You can run on Buffalo as we've seen throughout the year. And by the way, even if Buffalo starts putting up points and Josh Allen goes nuts, everything like that, like if they're down and they're trailing, as you know they're significant underdogs to the Bills. Marks is there down back, he's going to be passing down back. So you know, does he get into the end zone? Probably not. But my running back 25, I'm keeping it open on him and I do think Woody Marks is a buy low as we approach the trade deadline Because I do think he's their best running back and will continue to get usage. They just. It just hasn't translated into fantasy points just yet. Alola Brooks with a really good question.

[Matthew Berry]

Yes.

[Connor Rogers]

Full ppr.

[Matthew Berry]

Woody Marks or RJ Harvey? Got to start one this week, unfortunately.

[Connor Rogers]

Well, I'm going to give you the answer. It's Woody Marks this week because RJ Harvey's on a buy.

[Matthew Berry]

Right?

[Connor Rogers]

There you go. I got one right.

[Matthew Berry]

That's a good stuff.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, that's the thing.

[Matthew Berry]

You could worry about a Woody Marks fumble and getting negative points and you start RJ Harvey instead. But you probably want to start Woody Marks.

[Jay]

Let's roll this one back. If Woody Marsh gets hurt on an opening snap fumble.

[Connor Rogers]

But where I thought. Where I thought that question was going and I think it's a really interesting one. Connor, rest of the season, Woody Marks or RJ Harvey?

[Matthew Berry]

Woody Marks.

[Jay]

Woody Marks. CJ Straddle.

[Matthew Berry]

I can't play the Sean Payton.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. Harvey got more work coming back. Similar to what Marks. More usage than fantasy production showed up and hopefully out of the buy. Maybe they get some of the pass pro things, but I'm probably with you. I'd rather. I'd rather Woody Marks, who I know is the starter and only has Nick Chubb as competition than whatever Sean Payton wakes up. Whatever Sean hint wants to do.

[Matthew Berry]

Jaleel McGoughlin makes a spin and it's like up.

[Jay]

Jaleel.

[Matthew Berry]

Red zone.

[Connor Rogers]

Evan Ingram, I want you to do the take some hill roll all of a sudden, you know, And Bo Nix is always a threat at the goal line. And so, yeah, Aloha bricks. Bad look on you. I think he literally just lost two spots in the power regular power rankings.

[Matthew Berry]

I actually like it. It's good. It's good fodder bit, by the way.

[Jay]

If America wasn't ready for this and you're expecting the Broncos to start falling off at some point because it doesn't feel like they're a 9 and 21 seed. You know, their next two games are after the buy. Is that your Commanders and the Raiders?

[Matthew Berry]

Oh, man.

[Jay]

It's gonna be 11 and 2 ending pole position for the 1 seed in the AFC. So everyone braced themselves emotionally for that.

[Connor Rogers]

You know what's fun, what's exciting for me is that game against the Commanders.

[Jay]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

Sunday Night Football right here on NBC. So, yeah, I get to national. You know, millions upon millions of people get to watch us get our ass kicked.

[Matthew Berry]

The Bears bet is going to be like an absolute hate bet against Commanders.

[Jay]

What percentage chance Jaden Daniels is the quarterback for that game.

[Connor Rogers]

I would say zero.

[Matthew Berry]

Oh, wow.

[Connor Rogers]

He's not on ir, is he Is not on ir?

[Jay]

Wouldn't he be on IR now if he was zero?

[Connor Rogers]

He should be. But maybe they haven't done it yet because they don't need to because they're on a buy this week. But they're three, eight. He's the franchise. It's the same argument.

[Matthew Berry]

The Joe Burrow combo.

[Jay]

It is the Joe Burrow football. Players want to play football.

[Connor Rogers]

I get that sometimes. Save players from themselves.

[Jay]

Yeah. But good franchises don't do that.

[Connor Rogers]

I know that is honestly, if you were to ask Pete or producer Steven, producer Adam, producer Damian, what their job is. It is to save me for myself. That is literally number one on, you know, and they're so, so at it, to be honest.

[Matthew Berry]

It's viable.

[Jay]

Dan Quinn definitely coming back if they go 4 and 13.

[Matthew Berry]

I think so.

[Connor Rogers]

He's got to.

[Matthew Berry]

I think he has a lot of goodwill with ownership.

[Connor Rogers]

I think he is, I think too much. You know, there was so much success in year number one. You can chalk it up to all the injuries, obviously in year two. And the other thing is, is that Josh Harris and the ownership group of the Commanders are not reactionary. And I think the other thing I'll say just I don't have any kind of inside source on this, but just my take on the outside is that Josh Harris and that ownership group are really, really aware of all the things that Dan Snyder did and how everything he did wrong. And they are desperately like, if Dan Snyder did red, they want to do green.

[Jay]

You can't have an RJ3 sequel.

[Connor Rogers]

Right. They. Well, I mean, Dan Snyder fired a lot of coaches quickly.

[Matthew Berry]

You don't want that reputation.

[Connor Rogers]

You don't want that reputation.

[Matthew Berry]

Keep hiring people.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. So I don't. It'll be tough. I will say, I think I thought I was worried at the beginning of the season that Cliff Kingsbury was going to leave for a head coaching job. And I don't think that's going to happen anymore. It's cooling. It's cooling. Although there's so many college openings right.

[Matthew Berry]

Now, I don't think anyone wants to go back to college anymore.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, yeah. He's still getting paid by the Cardinals, too. I mean, he's. He's still. Cliff has it financially off.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, he's doing okay. Anyway, our last running back is Tyrone Tracy. He's got the Lions, but back from the dead here, Matthew, season high 17.9 points last week. And maybe Jackson Dart returns for this.

[Connor Rogers]

Game, which we hope so for. But you know, they're at Detroit, which I don't love this matchup. No team allows fewer fantasy points to opposing running backs than the Detroit Lions. The last time a running back scored 12 or more fantasy points against Detroit Detroit was week four. All the way back in week four. Singletary still got the touchdowns last week. So I'm closing it out on Tyrone Tracy. He's my running back 27, you know, especially by the way Jackson Dartback tells me that there's even less of a chance that Tracy gets in the end zone because they've been using Singletary since Scatterboo went down. And then you've got Dart who's Dartler.

[Matthew Berry]

Is the touchdown lure.

[Connor Rogers]

He is the touchdowner.

[Matthew Berry]

Dalar Algier, same usage at the goal line.

[Connor Rogers]

I mean basically. So could you squint and make him a desperation flex in a deeper a 12 team or deeper league? Sure. But I'm closing it out on Tyrone Tracy this week against the Lions.

[Matthew Berry]

Let's go to the wide receivers. Romeo Dobbs against the Vikings. Under 10 points in three of his past four games. Jay. And as we always say with the packers, it's very convoluted figuring out who the pass catchers are on a week by week basis in this group it is Romeo Dobbs.

[Jay]

He was so touchdown dependent on the touchdowns have dried up. So has have his value for the most part. Good game against the Panthers, but outside of that he hasn't done a great deal. I do think it's encouraging that Jordan Love played really well in the wind against the Giants. And also this Vikings pass defense which was among the top three four best in the league last year, it's not as imposing. I think it's a tell Connor that Brian Flores has ramped up the blitz button even more. Like he's blitzing just insane amount. He's like 60% of the time which to me tells me that he's not confident his defense can hold up, which.

[Matthew Berry]

Is usually the tell with him. Whenever his corners and secondary starts to struggle, he presses the blitz button literally as much as anyone in football.

[Jay]

So I love, I respect it. If I'm going to die, I'll die quickly.

[Matthew Berry]

It's, it's the Greg Williams take like die on the sword and Brian Flores lives by that. But I think there's more strategy behind it with Flores compared to Greg Williams. So Romeo Dobbs, Matthew Startable.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, weirdly, kind of.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

I mean like so I'm at wide receiver 26, so I'm a mid tier wide receiver. 3. So I'm keeping it open. Dobbs, like for the past six games he's had at least a 28% target share. 50 or more receiving yards in each of those four games. And since week seven, Vikings bottom 10 in terms of most fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. It does feel like if there is a go to guy for Jordan Love, it is in fact Romeo Dobbs. I know you know, Watson bailed him out a couple of times last week and they'll take their shots to Christian Watson. But dob is top 10among all wide receivers and end zone targets this year. Like when they get close, he looks for him. Especially with Tucker Kraft out on the.

[Matthew Berry]

Other side of this game. Guys, Jordan, Addison, before we get there.

[Connor Rogers]

Actually real quickly, just some news, just got an alert here. As long as we're talking, as long as we're talking Packers, I thought this was semi Interesting. Matt LaFleur says Josh Jacobs will not practice today. Quote, the plan is to try to get him healthy enough to go and it's just going to be a day by day thing. He is truly day to day. And that's tweeted by Ryan Wood, who covers the Packers. But that's a quote from LaFleur. Normally you just sort of think that's coach speak and it's clearly going to be Emmanuel Wilson. But Josh Jacobs is one of those.

[Matthew Berry]

Dudes like he's arguably the toughest guy in the NFL.

[Jay]

Yeah, he's like the running back version of Michael Pittman where whenever he's questionable he just plays. Remember he had that crazy hamstring strain against the Seahawks in that game where the broadcast caught up and no one got to watch his like 80 yard touchdown run in overtime to walk it off. He was questionable for the guy with a hamstring.

[Connor Rogers]

He had like 40 something fantasy points in that game and no one wanted to start him because it was a late game and he was just like, like I don't know. And he didn't practice on Friday and then he, then he shows up and not only plays but has like a massive fantasy day.

[Jay]

So walk off touchdown and overtime. Yes, he's won the rushing title that year.

[Matthew Berry]

And how about now that he's not week to week?

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, day to day.

[Matthew Berry]

I think any Josh Jacobs fantasy manager would be like, I'll sign up for just one miss game. We're kind of bracing for two, three. You never know with the lower body.

[Connor Rogers]

But like he's like, I feel like he's played through, like, broken collarbones and stuff. Like, he's ridiculous. Like, in terms of, like, how. How incredibly tough he is. So anyway, normally you just say, like, yeah, yeah, yeah, LaFleur. We all know, like, you know, like, if Shanahan said that about Caffrey, we're like, all right, so that means he's out four weeks. But, like. But lafleur. Anyway, because you're talking about Josh Jacobs, there is hope. We could see number eight on Sunday.

[Matthew Berry]

I like when I randomly poke in the chat, and I just see Valiant Vincent saying, still waiting for Jay to announce he's renamed one of his daughters Alec and another Pierce.

[Jay]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

When's that happening? That's great.

[Jay]

Alec. Alec's a great name.

[Matthew Berry]

Girl.

[Jay]

Yeah. Young girl.

[Matthew Berry]

Pierce is a cool name.

[Connor Rogers]

I know you have a significant amount of money on the Colts.

[Jay]

Yes, Correct. I'm a Colts man.

[Connor Rogers]

I'm for the Colts man.

[Jay]

You're for the shoe. Need the shoe.

[Connor Rogers]

What if the Colts come home for you?

[Jay]

Sure.

[Connor Rogers]

And you win all the money that you have wagered. What will you do?

[Jay]

I'll get my name on the show.

[Matthew Berry]

I don't think he doesn't do anything right.

[Connor Rogers]

I think he just.

[Matthew Berry]

He's happy. He won.

[Connor Rogers]

He's won. And then he takes that money and bets in on something else.

[Jay]

Exactly. This is the show role. This is my life. Another thing.

[Connor Rogers]

I'm gonna throw something out to you. You know what you should do with that money? All that money. You have three young daughters. You know what they would love and what would be appropriate? Buy them a pony.

[Jay]

Great. Yeah. Maybe I can name the pony Alec.

[Connor Rogers]

There you go.

[Matthew Berry]

Nice. It's a good pony name.

[Connor Rogers]

It is a good pony name. Or in a colt. Buy him a colt.

[Jay]

Could buy them a colt. You know, initially, my wife would love this. One of my daughters. Her name is Remy, which is gonna be our name. Before we had a boy, and then we found out it was a girl, and we're like, ah, screw it. We'll call her Remy. Anyway, so same deal with Alec. So we've already got one. Alec might be a bit more of a stretch, but perhaps.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, figure it out.

[Matthew Berry]

Jay's pony named Alec.

[Connor Rogers]

All right.

[Matthew Berry]

Jordan, Addison, please.

[Connor Rogers]

I just think you should be a pony owner. If they. If it comes through, you know, you'll be able. If you bet the amount of money you'll win, you could afford.

[Matthew Berry]

I don't recommend owning a pony.

[Jay]

It seems like a lot of work.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, it is.

[Jay]

I can barely change my own tire.

[Connor Rogers]

You're not doing it. Sophia's Gonna do this.

[Jay]

I can't change my own time.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, of course. Everyone knows that.

[Matthew Berry]

Jordan Addison. We're being ushered off the stage. And on Jordan Addison, 8.3 points per game and J.J. mcCarthy's three starts, I don't think that surprises anybody. Matthew. It's just now, to be fair, he dropped a big one last week, but it's just not rolling. It's not clicking right now with McCarthy under center.

[Connor Rogers]

It certainly has not. He's caught only 32% of his targets from J.J. mcCarthy this season. All that said, you know, the volume has been there back to back games with at least a 22% target share. You got three end zone targets on stretch, as you mentioned. If he catches the one. If he catches that one. I think the narrative is a little bit different about Jordan Addison with JJ McCarthy starting like his average depth of target is over 16 yards. Like they're taking some deep shots here. They're playing the Packers. I'm a wide receiver, 29, so I'm reluctant. He's a low end wide receiver three. But I am reluctantly keeping it open on Jordan Addison. I'm just banking on the high scoring nature of this. Well, actually not high scoring nature, but I'm taking the over on the 40 and a half. For the script. For the script. And. Yeah, I just, I don't know, I just. This is the Vikings season. This is a big one for them.

[Jay]

Total's only 40 and a half.

[Connor Rogers]

That's what it says on my sheet. Yeah.

[Jay]

Seems lower.

[Connor Rogers]

That's what I'm saying. I'm taking the over on the mean.

[Jay]

Yeah, I GUESS It's A. J.J. mcConnell.

[Matthew Berry]

And the packers, like they win, but man, it's not.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

And we're talking about Mona Lisa.

[Connor Rogers]

The game's in Green Bay. The game's in Green Bay as well. But I just, I don't know. I'm, I'm, I'm, I, I'm encouraged by God. If you squint. I'm talking myself into it. You watch me talk myself into it live on air. But, but McCarthy was really good down the stretch on that one, that one drive.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, we'll never forget that.

[Jay]

Yeah. The proceedings, you gotta do something else.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, I just.

[Jay]

Again, he's no good. McCarthy's the worst quarterback in the league. Maybe Sanders will take the mantle from him this week, but for now he's the worst.

[Connor Rogers]

I agree that he is, but I believe in Addison's talent and I don't believe they're gonna be able to run on Green Bay. And so I do think they're gonna have to throw and Jefferson will get a lot of targets. And so they are taking deep shots. Addison only needs one to make your day again. He's wide receiver, 29. But I am reluctantly.

[Matthew Berry]

Classic.

[Jay]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

Keeping it open every time. I'm the fence ler.

[Jay]

Yeah, the fence.

[Matthew Berry]

Yes. There you go.

[Connor Rogers]

I'm the fencer.

[Jay]

To your point, Connor, about the packers keeping these games close. Every time I look up at a Packers game, it's like they're fighting for their lives. In the fourth quarter against the Bengals, against the Panthers, the Browns, the Giants. Just win a game by 10. Just win a game by 10. Green Bay. Yeah. But this would be a good test for them because they really should handle the Vikings.

[Connor Rogers]

You think lafleur loses if they don't make the playoffs?

[Matthew Berry]

You think lafleur losing if they don't make the playoffs? In a year where you were a Super bowl contender. Yeah, it'd be on the table.

[Connor Rogers]

But I'm just saying, you've got Detroit and Chicago in that division that are both sort of trending the right way. Trending the right way.

[Matthew Berry]

Chicago also keeps getting away with it.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

They don't make the playoffs, which is feasible, especially with how good Seattle, like the wild card in the NFC is awesome.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah.

[Jay]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

I think it would be a combo.

[Jay]

Yeah, we'll see. I don't think it's been a great year for LaFleur.

[Matthew Berry]

He'd have a job, another job, sure. But yes, it would be. That's a tough one.

[Connor Rogers]

It's just. I just. Again, I'm not. You're never rooting for anyone to lose their job. But I do think he's a little bit on the hot seat, which I. At the beginning of the year, I would have said no way. Yeah, no way.

[Jay]

To be fair and to backtrack what I just said before, they do have like the fourth ranked offense in EPA per play. Like, the offense has been efficient.

[Connor Rogers]

It just.

[Jay]

It looks ugly. It just doesn't look right. And in big spots, they haven't looked great. Like, the Eagles game was a bit of a mess, but. Yeah, I still think.

[Connor Rogers]

But anyway, this is a big game against the Vikings. Be interesting for both teams. Both teams. All right.

[Matthew Berry]

Our last wide receiver is Rashid Shahid here. Jay. He's got the Titans, but he has not got gotten to. He's not averaged even 5 points per game since being traded to Seattle.

[Jay]

Yeah, it's strange. I think we thought that the transition process would be pretty seamless given that he'd already Played Kubiak last year. This doesn't feel like he's entirely up to speed. Him and Donald not on the same page. Now you get the best matchup possible. Just about against the Titans team that loves giving up explosive pass plays. Only the commanders, I believe are worse in that department though the Raiders might be giving them a run for their money soon. But the targets went up, which is good to see against the Rams, Donald did go to him with 1 second left, allegedly 1 second left with the game on the line. But I think with Shahid you need to see it a little bit more before you start him with confidence.

[Connor Rogers]

There's always a chance that he gets deep for one and against the Titans, obviously that that chance is amplified, but I'm going to close it out. You mentioned the target share. You know, yes, it's trending up, but it's still not great. In both games since being traded to the Seahawks Hawks, he's had a below 12% target share. So they're just not throwing a ton to him. And in this game I don't expect them to throw a ton, period. In games in which the Seahawks win by 10 or more points, they're currently 13 and a half point favorites. Right. In games in which the Seahawks win by double digit points, Darnold is averaging just 21 pass attempts a game like they just don't need against Tennessee. He's just not going to need to throw a ton. I think Walker has a big game. I think the defense could get a score like a. Just, you know, so I'm, I'm closing out on Rasheed and Shahid. We sort of agree. I want to see it in Seattle and I don't know this is necessarily the week.

[Matthew Berry]

Finally, the Hunter Henry portion of the show. He's got the Bengals who have been dreadful against tight ends, but Hunter Henry since Week 5, tight end, 31 in points per game. Something's got to give Matthew in this one.

[Connor Rogers]

He's been, he's been pretty tough, there's no question about it as they found other ways to move the ball ball, you know, Diggs and k' Shawn, Booty and Mack Hollins and Trayvon Henderson obviously and just Hunter Henry's kind of become a frog gotten man as you sort of see it there on your screen. Not more than 51 receiving yards in any game since Week 5. Has just one touchdown since Week 5. All that said, it's Cincinnati. You had me at Cincinnati, right? You know, no team allows more yards, no teams allowed more touchdowns and no team allows more Fantasy points to opposing tight ends than your Cincinnati Bengals. They've allowed 70 yards or more to a tight end in every single game this year. Literally every single game this year, they've allowed at least 70 yards to a tight end, over 100 yards. In eight of 10 games, nine different tight ends have scored double digit fantasy points against the Bengals. So this is all about the Bengals, not anything about Hunter Henry's usage. But we like the talent. We know, we know he is decent. So I'm a tight end. 12. I'm as a low end, tight end one this week.

[Jay]

Week.

[Connor Rogers]

I'm keeping it open on Hunter Henry and watch, watch him have a huge game and then we've got to talk about him next Tuesday on waivers. Welcome back to Waivers. Hunter Henry.

[Jay]

You know Hunter Henry and Taj Speaker.

[Connor Rogers]

He's the, he's the Bono of, of this show. And you're like, what's a Bono? And I'm going to tell you this story very quickly. No, come on, I got 45 seconds. I can tell the story.

[Matthew Berry]

Tell the story.

[Connor Rogers]

Back in Hollywood, a long time ago, Sonny Bono had a. You remember Sonny? Sonny and Sherry. Sonny Bono had a restaurant called Bono's. And it was on this particular restaurant and on this corner, and it went out of business, and then there was another restaurant there and like six months later went out of business. And like, for like two and a half years, there were like four or five restaurants in this spot that just could never get going. And so when I was a sitcom writer and you were on a script and there'd always be, you know, an episode, there'd be one joke that you could never nail. And like every day you'd come up with a joke and you'd go to the. This, you'd go to the stage and rehearse it and it would fall flat. You're like, all right, we got to work on that joke again, you know, or that setup. And so we always called it a Bono. You know what I mean? Just because you have to keep. You have to keep trying. You have to keep trying. It just keeps coming back because it's never successful. Honor Henry is a Bono.

[Jay]

Okay. I thought we were going with the Irish singer, but.

[Connor Rogers]

I said Bono. Sorry, Bono.

[Matthew Berry]

To recap, keep it open or close it out. Trevor Lawrence is a close at QB17 Quinte. Sean Judkins and Woody McCarthy marks both stay open as top 25 plays Tyrone Tracy. He's a close right outside the top 25. Romeo Dobbs is open at wide receiver 26, as is Jordan Addison desperation open or reluctant? Open. At 20. Wide receiver 29. Rasheed Shahid. He's a close at wide receiver 48. He's averaging less than five points per game since the trade. Hunter Henry, the Bengals, every tight end is feasted on them. So he is a tight end one technically as a tight end and 12. He stays open. We're taking our first break. When we're back, Blind date is back.

[Connor Rogers]

Oh, my God.

[Jay]

Oh, goodness.

[Connor Rogers]

That's Michael. Not bad. Ah. Should I give Trevor Lawrence hair? We've got a poll. I would probably do. I would do shorter. Like, I would just. Honestly, what I would actually do, what I would actually do is I, I would probably keep my forehead. You know what I mean? Like just like I wouldn't go crazy, but I would just. Up here it would just be, you know, just more I would fill in my, you know.

[Jay]

Oh, God. AI very trouble.

[Connor Rogers]

See the vote. Should I do that? Should I get the Trevor Lawrence hair? Go ahead and vote.

[Matthew Berry]

Well, yep, vote. We'll be back.

[Connor Rogers]

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[Jay]

Anonymous I'll be true.

[Connor Rogers]

They put together a tough one for you. No real clues here as well. So the reason why these numbers are so low is because it's Travion Henderson, who was not used early in the season but has now obviously picked it up. The most important thing is that the rest of the way the Patriots have the easiest remaining schedule for running backs. They're at Cincinnati this week obviously. Then the Giants. They have a box. Buffalo at Baltimore at the jets, home to Miami. Like there's not one good run defense they face the rest of the way as well. Now up to date, up to this point they've had six easiest. But I do think Travian Henderson is very much a buy if you can get him even a quote unquote buy high for the fantasy playoffs. Even when Ramondre comes back, I think Henderson is going to continue to have significant fantasy value. All right, let's talk about here's Running back number two, sixth in route participation, 18th in utilization score. So he's being used a ton, but he's just 29th in fantasy points per game.

[Matthew Berry]

Is this Woody Marks?

[Connor Rogers]

It's a close Guess, but no, no.

[Jay]

I'm not too sure.

[Connor Rogers]

Well, it's a, it's obviously a receiving back that's used a lot but not particularly good. And it's Alvin Kamara. The one thing though is again, that utilization score of 18th, like he's being used a lot, especially in the passing game. And it's worth noting that the Saints have the second easiest schedule remaining for running backs. Falcons, Miami, Tampa Bay. That's not a great one. But then Carolina, the Jets at Tennessee, at Atlanta. So you don't love Atlanta this week. Pretty good run defense, but the rest. And Tampa Bay is a little tough, but other than that, pretty easy schedule. Second easiest remaining schedule, running backs. He is getting volume like there's not much you can hang your hat on here, Jay, but he is at least out there.

[Matthew Berry]

There.

[Jay]

Yeah. And that's ultimately the most important thing to be out there to compile stats.

[Connor Rogers]

So just, I just, with Khmer, I just like if you could get him cheap, he might be a usable flex the rest of the way. Just given the schedule, how that matches up. All right, let's, let's, let's go to running back number three. This is a, this is a running back that's, you know, just one of the top, right? He's, he's top 10, top 11 in utilization score, raw participation inside the five yard rushing attack attempts and designed rush shares. So this is somebody that obviously these all numbers obviously from FantasyLife.com, all the underlying data that we use with the utilization report. 18th in fantasy points per game. Any thoughts here?

[Jay]

Kyron Williams?

[Connor Rogers]

That's a good guess. It's not Kyron Williams, but it's close. It's that kind of player. It's that kind of player who's, you know, used a ton but the fantasy point just haven't resulted a little bit.

[Matthew Berry]

Is it Chase Brown?

[Connor Rogers]

It is Chase Brown. Let's go, Connor. Very hard. And listen, Samantha Piranha has missed the last couple of weeks, but honestly they just had a really tough schedule and now it gets a lot easier for the Bengals. They have the fourth easiest remaining running back schedule. New England this week, not great. But then at Baltimore, Buffalo, Baltimore at Miami, Arizona. So it's a, it's a pretty easy schedule. 4th easiest for running backs. Up until this point, they had the hardest schedule for opposing running back running backs. Let's go to running back number four. And this is somebody who has, you know, top 12 in, you know, goal to go rush attempts, design, rush share. Obviously not a passing down back. His route participation, just 47th and he's, you know, 23rd in utilization score, so feels like a first, second down grinder. He's 17th in fantasy points per game.

[Jay]

Jalen Warren.

[Connor Rogers]

Nope, that's wrong. It was not particularly close.

[Matthew Berry]

Javante Williams.

[Connor Rogers]

That's a closer guess. No, it's my guy. Derek Henry. King Henry, who Jay says should be backing up. Keaton Mitchell. That's right.

[Jay]

Correct. Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

Well, Henry's obviously getting a lot of work, but he's a first and second down back. He's not used in the passing game. But the reason we bring him up is the Ravens have the 11th easiest remaining schedule for running back. Up to this point it was third hardest. So just Lamar being back. Ravens making a playoff cha. Playoff run. A hopeful playoff run. I think Henry should finish the season strong if you manage to hang tough with him so far. And let's do one more running back here real quickly. So this is a running back obviously that's kind of all over the place. Like he's, you know, designed rush. Here is 9th route preservation, 10th utilization score 9th. So being used a lot. Except when they get in close. They're using this guy a ton, but just not when they get in close because he's 37th in inside the five yard rush attempts.

[Matthew Berry]

Oh, wow, this is a tricky one.

[Connor Rogers]

I actually think this one's obvious.

[Jay]

Devon Hn.

[Connor Rogers]

No, no. Somebody that gets Somebody that's used a lot except when they're getting closed.

[Jay]

Bijan Robinson.

[Matthew Berry]

That was. But he has.

[Connor Rogers]

That's a great.

[Matthew Berry]

He has more points. He has more points than.

[Connor Rogers]

It's. It's. It's. Saquon Bar Barkley is the answer here. Eagles have the third easiest remaining schedule for running backs. Up to this point it was ninth hardest. Eagles played the Cowboys this week, then Chicago at the Chargers, home to Las Vegas at my. Washington, Commanders at Buffalo, and then Washington again. That's a great schedule for Saquon down the stretch. So I think some of these running backs, hopefully the idea here was like, hey, these are some running backs that you might be able to get cheap or even if you have to pay quote market value, we think their value will go up the rest of the year because of their remaining schedule. These are all running backs that have really easy schedules for running backs the rest of the way. Trade deadline, of course, in a week for most leagues.

[Matthew Berry]

All right, we're going to take our last break. When we're back, back to the futures, our favorite awards and futures bets right after this.

[Connor Rogers]

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[Matthew Berry]

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[Connor Rogers]

Oh, the crown is yours.

[Jay]

Yours.

[Connor Rogers]

Whose crown is it? It's yours.

[Matthew Berry]

The crown is ours. It's back to the futures. Jay, what do you got your eye on?

[Jay]

It'll take the Cowboys over seven and a half wins. A plus 120. They've already got four wins so they need to go 500 the rest of the way for this to cash. It is a difficult schedule, but they still have the commanders and the Giants final two weeks which should be two wins. Vikings at home as well. Charger. I think they'll be favored in that game. And then you hope that. I think they can go 1 and 2 over this next stretch against Eagles. Chiefs at Lions.

[Matthew Berry]

All right. Matthew, what about you?

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, I'm taking the Chargers to miss the playoffs at plus 130. Look at the schedule out of the by. Okay, they got the Raiders in week 13. All right. Not tough. But then Eagles at Chiefs at Cowboys, which they're a better defense. Home to the Texans at the Broncos. We figure the Chiefs are going to make a run. The AFC wild card really crowded as well. So I'm saying Chargers don't make the playoffs at plus 130.

[Matthew Berry]

I'm going with the Titans under two and a half wins. This is plus money, believe it or not. So I don't see two more wins. The games are the Browns and the Saints that you view as winnable games. I don't think the Titans are better than either of those teams right now. And they still have to win both of them, not just one of them. So I was a little surprised to see this. At 100. I think the Titans are going to be probably a two win team. Picking number one overall.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, I like that a lot. Here are the poll resorts. Should I get Trevor, Lawrence, Harrison? 54% say yes.

[Jay]

Go.

[Connor Rogers]

45% say please God, no. It hurts my eyes.

[Jay]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

When are you going to show it off?

[Connor Rogers]

Probably, I guess debut it maybe tomorrow.

[Jay]

Okay.

[Matthew Berry]

That's fast.

[Connor Rogers]

That music means it's close to dime. You don't have to go home, but you can stay here. For Jay and Connor, I'm Matthew. We'll see you tomorrow. Peace out.

[Producer Pete]

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