← Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry
Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry
Week 16 Love/Hate: Saquon Barkley, Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, Jacoby Brissett
00:52:01
December 18: Matthew (@MatthewBerryTMR), Jay (@croucherJD), and Lawrence (@LordDontLose) waste little time diving into their Love/Hate list for the playoff semifinals, highlighting Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, DK Metcalf, Justin Jefferson, Darren Waller, and Jalen Hurts among others. The trio wrap up the show with their favorite bets in a massive matchup between the Rams and Seahawks on Thursday night.
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- [00:00]
A
This would be good. Lots of. Lots of bragging rights on the line. And the good thing is that Matthew Berry can't win the league. That's all that really matters. I was gonna say. I honestly have not cared once he started owing 7. Oh, yeah.
- [00:12]
B
I was gonna say, hey, hey. He got the six of seven. He was like, hold on now.
- [00:17]
A
And then one last dagger.
- [00:18]
B
I beat him in the consolation bracket.
- [00:21]
C
And I started Roma Dunse who didn't.
- [00:23]
A
Play, by the way. So I just. Yeah, it's been a very good running bit of Matthew out producing himself with how much he can lie about what is happening. Y. I finished fifth in points. It started in week 10 where he blamed George Kittle's injury against the Seahawks for costing him his matchup, not acknowledging that George Kittle wasn't on his team.
- [00:47]
C
Fantasy Football Happy hour with Matthew Berry.
- [00:52]
A
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Happy Hour. I'm Jay Croucher. Lawrence Jackson. Matthew Barry. George Kittle not with us today. Not on his team.
- [01:00]
C
I have a lot of George Kittle this year. I just did not have him on that particular team.
- [01:04]
B
I just.
- [01:05]
C
What I like to know. I want to say this. The regulars. I missed you guys yesterday. You can hear my voice. It's a little bit better. It's still not great. I'll probably cough throughout the show a little bit. Okay, though I have no. But I've tested negative for everything. I mean, Lidl, I went to the, you know, I went to the doctor and whatever. It's just.
- [01:21]
A
I just think it's a new disease that you've created.
- [01:23]
C
No, it's just. I think I've talked too much. Honestly, it's just. I think just a little. My throat is drained.
- [01:27]
B
But I'm never going to.
- [01:28]
C
What? I will say. No, exactly. SEC Man 01 See what happens when you are out for one show? Matthew Turncoats. I will say this in fairness to these guys. Those are all things they would have said to my face. So I actually don't think you guys are turn codes. I actually don't think your turn codes.
- [01:43]
A
It's not a James Cromwell or Lyn, L.A. confidential situation.
- [01:46]
C
No, it is not that. But I'll tell you what it is. It just goes to show, like, even on a show when I'm not here, they have to talk about me. Without me, they are nothing. Without me, they're hopeless. They're useless. They're floating in a sea of nothingness. It's just like, oh, Barry's not here. What can we do? Let's least talk about Barry. Yeah, you're at it.
- [02:05]
B
Yeah, that's right. Yeah.
- [02:06]
A
Yeah.
- [02:06]
C
Right. We get.
- [02:07]
A
All right, well let's step out of the sea of nothing.
- [02:09]
C
The show even when I'm not here. It's fine. Let's.
- [02:12]
A
Let's dry ourselves off the water from the sea of nothingness. Step onto dry land where we're going to talk about love hate.
- [02:18]
C
Yes sir.
- [02:19]
A
We're going to talk about our best bets. The Seahawks Rams, which is I think the game of the season tonight. But let's get straight into it. Love hate with the running backs, Matthew and we're going to start off with Saquon Barkley who we see here practice on Wednesday after missing Tuesday with a stinger. He should be good to go on Saturday. He plays your Washington Commanders. He would have been a no brainer. He wouldn't have even. We wouldn't have been able to put him on the love list last year because it was so obvious. But this year not as obvious but very favorable Matchup against Washington.
- [02:52]
C
Yeah, it's an unbelievable matchup against Washington running backs that have seen at least 15 touches against the Commanders this year. They're averaging 19.4 fantasy points per game. My Commanders have given up at least 20 fantasy points to a running back in four of the past five and so Saquon, who you know has, has played better recently. The offense has played better in games in which they win. Barkley's getting over 22 touches a game. They're six and a half point favorites. I think they do win here as well. So Barkley's my running back six this week. I just. It's been a tough year for Barkley. He has not returned value on adp. But if you've managed to make the playoffs with Saquon Barkley as your first round pick, you're going to be rewarded this week. Again, my running back six, I think he runs all over my commanders.
- [03:34]
B
The first time this season he's had two games in a row with 75 yards and a touchdown. That's interesting. Obviously he's had definitely a solid matchup last week in the Raiders to get that done and just carrying that over to Washington. If you like you said if you made it this far, which some people have, you should actually feel good about it now.
- [03:53]
A
Yeah. Still doesn't quite look like Saquon Barkley from last year, but trending in the right direction and having some more Saquon type of runs like housing the 50 yarder against the Chargers a couple of weeks ago. My first name for the love list. Jonathan Taylor, who would have been an unspoken love, would have been self evident a few weeks ago. Obviously things have changed for the Colts. It's hard to say it was encouraging, but I thought there were encouraging aspects of his performance against the Seahawks. One, the fact that just an insane workload with Phil Rivers under center or really more in shotgun and the fact that the Colts, they ran the ball on first down I believe 19 times versus four pass attempts. They know that they can't let Phil Rivers get into second and third and long. So Jonathan Taylor is going to get a huge amount of work. This is season on the line for the Colts. If they lose this, this season is effectively over. And San Francisco's run defense is not particularly imposing. They're just out of bodies on that defense. They've been doing it with smoke and mirrors. Credit to Robert Salah, but Jonathan Taylor is going to get all he can eat on Monday night.
- [04:57]
C
Could not agree more. Look just right talented if you're Shane Steichen. How do I move the ball right. You know you've got a better chance. Philip Herbert is going to have to throw enough just to keep him honest, but it's going to be Jonathan Taylor.
- [05:09]
B
And they're hoping for that he breaks the big one that he couldn't versus Seattle. Seattle's better defense this season, so they knew better. Hey, we're going to stack the box and The San Francisco 49ers may as well do that too. However, they don't have the same players at this time that the Seattle Seahawks have.
- [05:27]
C
I'll also say that this, this is a dumb one but. And not that you were ever deciding not to play Jonathan Taylor, but I always like having players on Monday night. Like just if everything's gone wrong. Hey, can I get him on my. I always just especially this week, a semifinal week. Like I like having players that can, you know, can. Can this guy bring the hammer home for me.
- [05:45]
A
Yeah. And also it's not like Jonathan Taylor was like 2 yards per carry against the Seahawks facing a loaded box and elite defense.
- [05:51]
B
He had good runs.
- [05:52]
A
Yeah, he was. What was he like 23 for 80 70.
- [05:54]
B
He did damn good for the opposing defense to know what they was trying but to like to what you said, Matthew, going into a Monday night, if you down 21 points with a guy like Jonathan Taylor, like you feel good unless you get to the fourth quarter and he got seven. But then you still got a chance.
- [06:13]
C
Right? Yo the end zone twice, right?
- [06:15]
B
Yeah.
- [06:15]
A
He's minus 300 anytime touchdown scorer. Yeah, we like that pretty remarkable Phil Rivers at quarterback. All right, Bucky Irving Matthew huge matchup for him against Carolina in a game that may the side the vaunted NFC South. The Panthers run defense has been struggling lately.
- [06:31]
C
Yeah. And I expect them to lean on Bucky Irving here. Right. Every game he's played this season he's had at least 17 touches. And then the reason I bring up the touches again running backs that get volume against Carolina. Seven of the nine running backs that's seen at least 15 touches against the Panthers they've scored at least 16 fantasy points since week eight. Carolina is bottom five in the NFL in both rush yards per game and yards per carry allowed to opposing running backs. So Bucky Irving, who should get the majority of the work in a matchup on the road at Carolina is my 10th best running back this week. As you see it right there on your screen. The Panthers just Giants, Bengals, Cardinals. My commander is just among the teams that allow a ton of rushing yards to opposing running backs. Bucky Irving, RB1 this week running back 10 for me.
- [07:14]
A
Yeah. The look ahead line for this one was Bucks minus one and a half in Carolina and then the market in the world saw what Carolina served up in New Orleans against the Saints decided this line needs to be -3 instead I suspect that the Bucks to have game script as we see. What is this berry PI you the 88 youth the 88 not sure there. Barkley Irving and A Chan. Who are you sitting? Wow, that is a. That's a good problem to have. We can't sit anyone else 1 I.
- [07:43]
C
Actually I think you're sitting Bucky Irving.
- [07:46]
B
I mean how about say I'm Not.
- [07:48]
C
Barkley at 6 obviously a Chan High you know very. I mean Bucky Irving is my lowest ranked guy there. I meant running back 10 nice options to have Barry PI UV 88.
- [07:59]
B
Yeah. Find somebody else to see if you. But I guess he can't why he's asking us.
- [08:05]
C
Maybe don't have a flat.
- [08:06]
A
Yeah very confusing username handle there because your name's Barry. Barry. There's a lot going on. A lot going on there indeed. All right, let's jump to the Houston backfield where there's also a lot going on. Lawrence Woody Marks who's been a little banged up. Joa Jordan, who's a football player. They play the Raiders. They're more than two touchdown favorites so it's about as favorable as a game script situation as you can imagine.
- [08:27]
B
Yeah, you talk about that game script. The over under for this game is 37 and a half. Right. We know that ain't because of the Texans. That's because of the Raiders and whoever they have starting at quarterback. Right. But Woody Marks is the play here. If he's healthy and ready to go, he suffered the injury. Gerard Jordan came in 15 carries, 101 yards versus the Cardinals defense. Now, you get this Raiders defense, they're going against allow the 8th most points in fantasy per game of running backs. They have allowed at least 92 scrimmage yards and a rushing touchdown to running backs in three straight games. So if you got witty marks, you feel great about this. They get ahead. We know that CJ Stroud can have a good game and not even throw touchdowns. So definitely like whoever's starting that running back for this Texans backfield.
- [09:18]
A
Okay. Theory and Josh Bangers. Hampton or Woody?
- [09:24]
C
I would say I think it's Woody Marks. I agree with Lawrence here. Like again, assuming Woody Marks plays. I think it's Woody Marks. I mean, just Marion Hampton is my ride or die. But the Cowboys, quietly, since Quinn Williams has come, they've played good run defense. They're actually the fifth best run defense in the NFL over the last five, four weeks. I should say so. Yeah. Woody Marks over Martin Hampton. Unfortunately, you're hoping with Hampton, he gets into the end zone. If Hampton. If Marks is out, I would then go with Hampton. I get the jaw. No, I do the same thing versus Jaw Jordan, who like, you know, it's a semifinal game. That feels a little bit cute.
- [10:01]
A
Okay. One of our favorite regulars, Neck Brace Nation. That's terrifying visual of Lawrence Jackson.
- [10:08]
B
That's not me, it's Peyton Manning.
- [10:10]
A
All right, Sorry. It's Peyton Manning mixed with your fingernails. Okay. Woody Gentio, Aaron Jones for the championship.
- [10:16]
C
Yeah, it's Woody Marks. I want no part of Genty against Houston. Genti's been terrible. We're going to talk about him in a second. Like, no, thank you.
- [10:24]
A
Yeah, I actually called this in the preseason that people would be starting Woody Marks over Ash and Jetty. That's the rookie running back that you want. All right, let's jump to some others. Receiving votes headlined Matthew by Tyrone Tracy, who got plenty of work, seemingly taking over this backfield with Cam Scatterboo obviously out, but also with Devin Singletary not getting the lion's share of the work.
- [10:48]
C
Yeah. Gyro Tracy has scored as a top 13 fantasy running back in three in each of his past three healthy games. Vikings have allowed a running back to score in seven of their past eight. How about Kenneth Gainwell? Right. Who has a 16% target share on the season. That's fifth among all running backs since week 11. He is the eighth best running back in fantasy football, as crazy as that might sound. He is. That's a high over under in that game in Detroit. I think it's 52 and a half. And then finally, how about Michael Carter? Since week seven, your Falcons Lawrence allow the fifth most receptions per game to running backs. And in the four games that Michael Carter has gotten 10 or more touches, he's averaging almost 13 fantasy points per game. He's got a 14% target chair. Now, we saw Amari DiMarcado come back last week and roll, but it's going to be Carter and DiMarcado. I got a. I got a text from a buddy today who said to me, I'm starting Michael Carter over Ashton Genty. Am I crazy? And I said, you are not crazy.
- [11:44]
A
Well, in a similar vein, Christian David, 1473. Hey folks, DJ Moore or Michael Carter to fill my flex spot this week? No, I think it no room, probably no Roma dunes. Luther Burton has a bit of a question mark as well, but DJ Moore doesn't really do much.
- [12:01]
C
No, I know. Good boy. That's a tough one.
- [12:04]
B
You need that touchdown for DJ Moore.
- [12:06]
C
I think I'd go with Michael Carter. I just feel better about the chip.
- [12:10]
B
Both of them could get five receptions.
- [12:12]
C
Right. The game's in Chicago against Green Bay, but it's a ticket.
- [12:15]
A
That's a tough matchup, but yeah, who's actually been for their run defense? Yeah, the Bears were able to run the ball in the second half of that Green Bay game last time as well. You suspect that they will lean on the run if they can.
- [12:28]
C
So I'm saying Carter. I'm saying Carter. I don't feel good about that answer, but I feel I'm going to say Carter.
- [12:32]
A
Likewise. All right, Kevin Cardena, 637 RJ Harvey or Michael Carter?
- [12:37]
C
This one's easier. That's. That's RJ Harvey. I get the Jacksonville's played pretty good defense but Harvey just gets so much work. And we feel better about the Jaguars offense than. I mean Arizona's offense been pretty good, but yeah, I'm going to say RJ.
- [12:48]
B
Harvard get you them points like they going to be losing by 20, but they'll get you 20.
- [12:53]
A
Okay, well the team that just beat the Cardinals is part of our hate section here because they are the opponent for Ashton Genty. Matthew, you could not create a more of a petri dish of suffering in a lab for Ashton Genti managers than this matchup going up against the Texans. Yeah. Plus 14 and a half. Elite run defense. Elite defense. Overall nationality just hasn't done anything in a long time.
- [13:17]
C
Since week 11, he's had one game with more than 35 rushing yards. Think about that. He's had one game with more than35 rushing yards since week 11. As. As you see it there on your screen, it was week 12 against the Browns. He managed to get 50 and did get into the end zone. Had a big game there. A lot of passing game usage, but still. Houston allows the fifth fewest yards per carry to opposing running backs. And the implied team total for The Raiders is 12 points.
- [13:43]
B
How about say what is like three?
- [13:45]
C
No, it's 12 points. That's the lowest running team in week 16. Here's the positive, though. If there's a positive, if you're in the playoffs, you probably don't have Ashton Genty. So you know everyone that drafted?
- [13:56]
B
No, I got him in one, but I've been benching them for six weeks now.
- [14:00]
C
Of course, my friend. My friend's in the playoff season semis, but he's literally saying, like, am I crazy for benching Ashton Genti? Michael Carden? I'm like, you're not crazy. And. And what I will say here is just that, yeah, if you made the playoffs with Genteel, you made. You made it to spite him, not because of him.
- [14:16]
A
Yeah, he probably took JSN or something. And you have a juggernaut.
- [14:19]
C
He's played running back 25. So, I mean, Simon's a shaky flex.
- [14:23]
B
It's not like my League of Assholes team getting carried by Bryce Young and Shadour. It's nothing like that.
- [14:29]
A
Man finished first in the regular season. He's starting Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young in the playoffs. It's unbelievable. The rest of your team's absolutely loaded, though. It's like Taylor.
- [14:38]
B
I don't like to talk about that part. Cause that. That makes it sound like.
- [14:41]
A
All right, Coach Willis, Beard picked three, full ppr. Genti, Kyron, Judkins, Rico and Gainwell. I'm in the semis. I think you're still starting Kyron Williams. Absolutely.
- [14:52]
B
Starting Kenneth Kane, big play every game.
- [14:56]
C
I think it's Judkins. It's either Judkins or. Or Rico. I mean, but Rico's got the. The Buccaneers. They're really good. I think it's. I think it's Judkins against Buffalo. You can run on the Bills.
- [15:07]
A
So that's.
- [15:07]
C
I think it's Kyron Judkins and Gainwell.
- [15:09]
A
Yep. Yeah, agreed.
- [15:10]
C
Getting your full ppr.
- [15:12]
A
Okay, another question from. Ah, the great Jonathan Medici. Is Genti actually a bust or the Raiders just the worst team in the league? I think it's more about the Raiders.
- [15:21]
C
Why is it gonna be one or the other? Yeah, why's he gonna be. Why can't it be both?
- [15:24]
A
I don't think it's his fault that he's got the worst rumble.
- [15:27]
C
I think Ashton Genti's an actually a very good player and I think he will. He can survive. Yeah, would do very well.
- [15:32]
A
I don't think the generational talent disappeared overnight. It says more about the Raiders situation being a complete F. All right, another farce of a situation, Lawrence. The New York jets and Breece hall, who's on the hate list, facing the resurgent New Orleans Saints as they continue their march to 7 and 10.
- [15:51]
B
It's funny you just talked about Ash and Genty and the Raiders. The same could be said for Breece hall and these Jets. Like really good player, good running back, but he just happened to play for the jets. And for me, that's really what this is all about for Breece Hall. Two straight weeks where he's finished outside of running back 45 in fantasy. Hasn't had a top 15 week since week 12. And you said it. Resurgent New Orleans Saints. This might be the best 4 and 10 team in NFL history right here. In their last two games, they haven't allowed a running back to go over 55 rushing yards. And we're talking about Bucky Irving, we're talking about Rico. Those are pretty good running backs. So you look at the jets offense, you look at the jets team in totality, it just doesn't look look good. Actually, Matthew, you made a call on Sunday. You was like I do not feel good about this. And then it wasn't good. So I don't know if it's going to be good this week either. So he's.
- [16:51]
C
Hall is dangerously close to being wall removed from the wall.
- [16:54]
A
Yes, he's gonna. Yeah, walled we're gonna.
- [16:56]
B
And it's a damn shame cuz he good. But hey, you play for the Jets?
- [17:01]
C
Yeah.
- [17:01]
A
All right, question from Freeman, Jalen, Warren, Audrey Estimate pick two half.
- [17:08]
C
So yeah, I mean, listen, I get the question. No, hang on though. I mean that's how I'm still benching estimate but I get the question. People wondering, right? Odrick Estimate is going to be the starting running back of the New Orleans Saints. Him and Evan hall are going to split carries against the Jets. Like it's not a, it's not, it's not as crazy a question as you might think. He think he touched down. Devin Neal has already been ruled out for the Saints as has Alvin Camara. So it's just like you're like guy that's going to get. Probably get 12 to 15 touches against the worst defense in the NFL. It's not a crazy question. I'm still half point. PPR is also interesting but I'm still going. This is close is all. My point is like yes, because you.
- [17:49]
B
Got to think touchdown. If you seen what the jets just had done on to them by the Jaguars, it's like yeah, yeah, I get it. You know, but yeah, yeah, yeah, I'm still going.
- [17:59]
C
I'm still benching estimate. That does feel a little too cute.
- [18:03]
A
Yes. Yeah, I agree. You know also you know how this goes because everyone just spent all their fab on Aldrich estimate and so he's about to get Evan Hull. Oh, Evan Hull's gone 1495 and a touchdown.
- [18:13]
B
Evan Hull had a, he had a clear pathway at one point to being Jonathan Taylor's long term backup.
- [18:20]
A
Yeah.
- [18:20]
B
Then he got hurt and so now he's here. So hey, you never know now it's.
- [18:24]
A
Amir Abdullah the immortal.
- [18:26]
B
It is Amir Abdullah.
- [18:27]
A
All right. Hey listen mate. Rico Dowdle against the Buccaneers pass funnel defense, the Bucks. We saw that their past defense just has absolutely nothing at the moment as Kirk Cousins that would march down the field last Thursday night. Rico still has a chubby problem to navigate on a week by week basis. His rushing prop is set in the high 50s so I think he's still a viable flex option. Very low end RB2. But I don't think the upside is there in this matchup with Chuba Hubbard still expected to get, you know, his typical 30, 40 rushing yards. What? Oh question from no, nah, nah.
- [19:02]
C
The answer is no. Question is from Big Dog off. Big Dog, Big Dog off. Should I start Rico Dowdle over Mike Evans in my flex in standard format? I don't think so.
- [19:13]
B
No.
- [19:13]
C
I think just because the first off you don't love the, the matchup against a very good run defense of Tampa Bay and then I just, I. Evans got almost a 40% target.
- [19:23]
B
How about I say he was.
- [19:23]
C
He like had 37 target share last year.
- [19:25]
A
Evans was playing like half the snaps haven't football in two months and almost went for 150. Yeah, like yeah, Evans, Evans is the guy there. Certainly not an imposing matchup with the Carolina secondary either. All Right. Speaking of Mike Evans, let's go.
- [19:37]
C
I do feel like Baker always plays crappy against Carolina. He always, like, plays down to them. I just, I don't know. That's. I don't have any stats in front.
- [19:44]
A
Of me, like kind of implying down to everyone.
- [19:46]
B
I mean, it's been tough he getting back. Right.
- [19:49]
C
But I'm still starting my cabins over Ricardo.
- [19:51]
A
I think the bucks kill. All right, let's jump to love hate pass catches as we take a look at Matthew's ranks one through ten. We got number one and number three going head to head tonight on Thursday Night Football. Fuka Nukua against Jackson Smith in Jigba with a Monroe St. Brown in between them and a Monroe's teammate. Jameson Williams cracks the top 10. Which would have felt like a comedy sketch six weeks ago. Matthew. But now Jameson Williams, all of a sudden a legit wide receiver won.
- [20:20]
C
You see it there on your screen. Three straight games with at least a 20% target. Sorry, at least a 26% target share. He said at least seven catches in all of them. You know, packers, Cowboys, Rams, seven catches in all of them. Almost 100 yards. Over 100 yards in two of them, 96 in the one. They didn't get there. And then you think about this matchup against Pittsburgh, who allows the seventh highest completion rate of passes, 15 or more air yards. They give up a lot of deep passes. And so Jamison Williams, who's getting a lot of looks recently, again, seven receptions and three straight since week nine, he's the sixth best wide receiver in fantasy football on a points per game basis, at least 16 fantasy points in six to seven games. And also, by the way, I'm playing against him in the semifinals of my dynasty league. So you know he's gonna go off. You know he's gonna go off. It's outrageous. I've been the number one seed in this league all year long. So I just. I just feel like this is what it's coming. Like I'm just the guy's gonna go off.
- [21:13]
A
One of the great fatalists of our time, Matthew Barry. Matthew's very type. Yeah, the fatal. Where if you're like a 45 chance to win, you'll be like, well, I've got an outside shot. Like, I don't think it's gonna happen. But, you know, there's a chance. There's always a chance.
- [21:28]
C
My opponent in this league is favored. Okay, all right, 51%, but still.
- [21:34]
A
Yeah. I'm just telling you the good thing about Jameson Williams. We've Talked about this a bit. One total in this game is 52 and a half, which you love. And then secondly, he's been producing Lawrence but not needing like the 70 yard touchdown bombs to do it. He's doing just sustained chunk play. Chunk play, chunk play.
- [21:49]
B
When Amara St. Brown left that game a couple of weeks ago, it was like, oh, this is our top 10 pick right here. This is him. Like we're getting him the ball short, intermediate and long. So now we know he could do that. Now we know he's not just some guy who runs the receivers off for Amar St. Brown. So that's good for him and I think it could happen. Versus still is D Indeed.
- [22:14]
A
All right, question J, Mo or JJ this week and assume that's Justin Jefferson. It's A question from Ved though. As we have discussed, there are many JJs in. In football. McCarthy, Juwan Johnson, Josh Jacobs, apparently Jahar Jordan.
- [22:29]
C
Yeah.
- [22:30]
A
Jawahar Jordan. Yeah. But Jerome James also New York Knicks set up kind of like a 535, 49ers.
- [22:40]
C
There's a 49ers running back, Jordan James.
- [22:42]
A
Yeah.
- [22:42]
C
As well.
- [22:43]
A
Yeah, exactly.
- [22:43]
C
Yeah.
- [22:45]
A
The answer I think is James. Yeah, it is.
- [22:49]
B
You just like the.
- [22:50]
C
He's my wife who returned this week.
- [22:52]
A
More stability at quarter and you can't even say that like you know, Justin Jefferson highest ceiling necessarily. Jameson Williams has a massive high ceiling as well.
- [23:01]
C
Another guy with a pretty high again in that game. Again, 52 and a half over under.
- [23:04]
A
Yeah.
- [23:05]
C
I think you want as much a part of that game as possible. Are you surprised that a game in which Pittsburgh is in it has that high at over under.
- [23:13]
A
Not necessarily Pittsburgh offense, like they just put up 28 against Miami. Like it's a. It's an unconventional offense. It's not very pretty, but they do move the ball like it hasn't been a mess. And also I don't think the Steelers defense is particularly imposing, particularly if T.J. watt can't go. And the Lions defense, they just don't have any bodies left on the back end.
- [23:31]
B
They've been having explosive plays these recent games too. Kenneth Gainwell gets one every game. Metcalf starting to come on just a little bit. So.
- [23:40]
C
Yeah.
- [23:40]
A
Yep. No, I think that'll be high scoring. Another game which may be high scoring on Saturday Night football here on NBC. Patriots Ravens total there is 48 and a half. The Ravens is three point favorites and Zay Flowers is on the love list for me. Understand the season long stats for the Pats D are fine. I think that's largely a product of their schedule. We saw when Josh Allen put the cape on last week. The Bills did whatever they want against the Patriots defense. I think Lamar Jackson, he looks a little bit more like Lamar Jackson doesn't look like MVP Lamar but the past two weeks I think have been very encouraging. Lawrence where started with the Steelers game a little bit and then against the Bengals just his running the ball more and just having a bit more success through the air Flowers or DJ Moore for Dunesay is out question from Brandon Roberts. I feel better about Zay Flowers. Yeah, that's a pretty easy one actually.
- [24:33]
B
Actually.
- [24:33]
C
Yeah.
- [24:33]
A
Yeah. All the underlying stuff on Lamar Su past couple weeks. Pff. Growth. He just looks a bit more like himself. This is like season on the line stuff for Baltimore as well.
- [24:40]
B
This is the. I think the playoffs started last week.
- [24:43]
C
Yeah, Lamar's looking better. Plus by the way, I feel like the Patriots struggle against the slot. Christian Gonzalez is good on the outside but like so yeah, they should. They should do well here.
- [24:52]
A
Okay, well we mentioned that Pittsburgh Detroit game. Matthew, let's go back to a DK Metcalf on the love list with a favorable matchup against the Detroit secondary that is missing Brian Branch, Kirk Joseph had a setback and there's Terry and Arnold. There's not many bodies on the back end.
- [25:06]
C
Yeah, that's the point, Jay. It's just, just all about this matchup here. Lions have given up at least 25 fantasy points to an opposing wide receiver in four straight games. They've. They've allowed the most yards per game to wide receivers this season. And in fact, only the Cowboys have allowed more touchdowns to opposing wide receivers than the Lions. So DK Metcalf, who is clearly the first read for Aaron Rodgers, makes the love list. He's my wide receiver 15 this week. Look at that dot. Tavian Wicks had a game against them. I mean, you know what? Reexpect Puka. But Wando Robinson put up 156. 9 for 156 and a touchdown against him. DK Metcalf, my wide receiver 15. It might be too low on him.
- [25:43]
A
Yeah, Ryan Flournoy also went berserk and George Pickens had a. A DPI in the end zone that was canceled out by local. Yeah, no, I think it's. It's going to be a big game for DK Mecker. It's probably going to have to be for them to keep up with Detroit. We mentioned Justin Jefferson before Lawrence. Obviously brutal stretch for JJ but very favorable matchup against the Giants.
- [26:03]
B
Hey, Man, I'm sticking with him. This is the time. This is, this is it. Even though, the last, even though we've.
- [26:09]
C
Been saying for four weeks, this one.
- [26:11]
B
Day, look, one day, one day, you know what had to happen, we had to get a team from New York.
- [26:17]
C
Are you, do you always hit on 16 or do you, are you a stay on 16?
- [26:21]
A
Not a big blackjack. I'm more of a lose money on comeback player of the year type of operator. But what you need is consistency there with the decision making.
- [26:29]
C
Right?
- [26:29]
A
And so if you're gonna start Justin Jefferson last week, it'll start to be on this week.
- [26:32]
C
So we were in Vegas, you know, I was just in Vegas last weekend. My wife and I and two other couples. And so we all sat down to blackjack team. My wife does not play blackjack. She's not a blackjack player. So we're trying to explain to her. And I'm just like. And she's just like, oh, I got a feeling. I'm like, Beth, look, you either always hit on 16 or you never hit on 16. Sure. Is my belief again, when the dealer's, when the dealer's showing a car that's like, you know, seven or higher, right? Blah, blah, blah. But I'm just, just. But that's the thing. I'm just. And this is my advice to the kids out there. Yes. You know, listen, if you're going to gamble, it's gamble, right?
- [27:05]
A
Yeah. The, the 23 year old kid is Jefferson.
- [27:08]
B
Sixteen.
- [27:09]
C
No, it's just, it is, it's one of those things. It's like, it's the book. It's, it's like about, it's about even money. Either way. You just have to sort of just be consistent. And you're not going to be able to guess is my point. Just, that's my rule. And I'm always head on 16.
- [27:22]
A
I'm not surprised.
- [27:23]
C
Yeah, yeah, of course.
- [27:23]
A
You don't want to die wondering.
- [27:25]
C
No, I know. Yeah.
- [27:26]
A
You can choose aggression or passivity. Go.
- [27:28]
B
Aggression.
- [27:29]
C
Yes, I need to know, but yes, either. That's my advice to the kids. If you learn anything from today show, either you have to decide either oh, you always hit on 16 or you never hit on 16.
- [27:37]
A
Okay, so why is Justin Jepsen gonna hit on 16?
- [27:40]
B
My advice to the kids that play fantasy football, Jay is that guy who steals the dealer's bus.
- [27:45]
C
Yeah.
- [27:45]
A
Thank you, Ronald.
- [27:46]
C
There's no question. Jay. Jay's absolutely third base.
- [27:49]
A
And just.
- [27:50]
C
And F's the table 100%. I will never play Blackjack with Jay, that's for sure.
- [27:55]
A
Justin Jefferson.
- [27:56]
B
I don't know if Justin Jefferson played blackjack, but he playing the Giants, you know, and they've allowed the fifth most fantasy points per game to receivers this season. Hopefully that means something good for him and not Jordan Addison. You know what had to happen. J.J. mcCarthy had to start playing better first.
- [28:14]
C
Yeah.
- [28:14]
B
Now that he's done that two games in a row, he's ready. Because Justin Jefferson hasn't had a game over 65 receiving yards since rookie week eight. Look. Yeah, I know, that's great. That's some crazy right there. Not just the Jefferson, but look. Kevin O' Connell said he will not go under 1,000 receiving yards on my watch. And despite this underwhelming season from Justin Jefferson, he's less than 170 yards away from a thousand. The last time a receiver did not score a receiving touchdown against these Giants giants was week six. So I'll be damn, man. J.J. mcCarthy, you threw three touchdowns a couple weeks ago. You threw two last week. He gonna hook up Justin Jefferson this week versus these Giants. He's on my love list.
- [29:01]
C
You know what, I agree with it, by the way. Justin Jefferson, yes, the numbers weren't there, but he got eight targets last week.
- [29:06]
A
He's getting targets each week and there.
- [29:08]
C
Was one and it drove me crazy because I had, I had Justin Jefferson getting 50 yards as part of my parlay. But there was one play where he, Justin Jefferson is basically crossing the field, field. He's wide open. All J.J. mcCarthy does is have to sit him and he's like, it's going to be like a 40 yard play and there's a chance at a touchdown.
- [29:24]
B
Still working on some things, but he has a 28% target share in seven of the eight games that they played together. McCarthy and Justin Jefferson.
- [29:33]
A
Okay, well, speaking of favorable matchups, perhaps none more favorable, Matthew, than your Washington commanders. And that defense and Dallas got it goes up against it. The Eagles can clinch the NFC east and tight ends feast against Washington. Washington.
- [29:47]
C
They really do. They've given up at least 10 fantasy points to an opposing tight end in seven of their past eight games. In fact, only two teams have allowed more touchdowns to opposing tight ends than my Washington commanders. And so Dallas Goddard, who's been getting a ton of looks lately, 30% target share over the last two weeks. He's my tight end five this week. I think Goddard has a big game. I think the Eagles win. I think they clinch the NFC East.
- [30:09]
A
It's great.
- [30:10]
C
And I think the commanders move further down in the draft order, which I like. Like, which is what you want. That's what I want.
- [30:15]
A
Yeah. Tough win last week. Didn't want that.
- [30:18]
C
I did not want that. They did not understand the assignment.
- [30:23]
A
Yeah. Well, the good news is you still got two games against Philadelphia and you got the Cowboys in between. And Brian Schottenheimer understandably said Dak Prescott's gonna play the rest of the way, so you probably go on three. And you mean, you know, high draft.
- [30:35]
C
Picks on picking five or something?
- [30:37]
A
Yeah, that's all right.
- [30:38]
C
Perfect.
- [30:38]
A
Can you get a player who plays defense?
- [30:41]
C
Hopefully many of them.
- [30:42]
A
Yeah.
- [30:42]
C
Yeah.
- [30:43]
A
All right, let's get to some others receiving votes headlined by Mike Evans, who we talked about a little bit before. Mike Evans. About as good as a return as you could possibly have wanted last week against Atlanta.
- [30:54]
C
Panthers have allowed at least 18 fantasy points to a wide receiver in four of the past five games. And you're right, 37 and a half percent target share in that first game. Back, Jay. How about Jaden Reed? You know, again, Christian Watson looks like he might play. We'll see. But. But it's worth noting the Bears have allowed the most touchdowns to the slot and the fifth most yards to opposing slot receivers. Jade Reed, back healthy and obviously plays the slot. He's my wide receiver. 33. How about Jalen Coker? Cokeheads unite. The Buccaneers allow the fourth most receptions per game to the slot. He's now had back to back games with a 20% target share and at least 60 receiving yards. Colby Parkinson, by the way, he may show up a little bit later in best bets, but like Cole Parkinson this week, he scored quietly in five of the past six three straight games with at least a 15% target share. He was by desperation play last Sunday on fantasy football pregame. He ends up with a two touchdown game. Just a monster game. And now you get the Seattle Seahawks. Only the Bengals allow more receptions and yards to opposing tight ends than the Seattle Seahawks. No Devonta Adams tonight. I think Parkinson's a big part of the game tonight. And then finally Darren Waller. You had me at Cincinnati. They've allowed 15 touchdowns to tight ends this season. Cincinnati has. That's five more than any other team. And so I don't care if it's Quinn Ewers or Tuatanga Violoa or Zach Wilson or Mike McDaniel, if you've got a tight end starting against the Bengals, you start him. Darren Waller is my tight end. 12 this week. He's a tight end. One for me.
- [32:20]
B
Mike McDaniel might actually suit up at quarterback if this don't work out.
- [32:23]
A
I don't think he can stay over the center, unfortunately. Dennis Ojeda, full ppr. Native flags. Darren Waller, Gainwell or Troy Franklin? I think it's Gainwell.
- [32:32]
C
Yeah, it's Gainwell. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [32:34]
A
Kenneth Gainwell, fantasy superstar.
- [32:35]
C
It's unbelievable, but that's one of my better calls of the year, by the way. I mean, we talked about it all in the preseason about like. And it was more about like, hey, like, stop with the Caleb Johnson stuff. Like, they really like Kenneth Gainwell. Kenneth Gainwell is going to play more than you think he is, you know, and so it's funny, the only thing.
- [32:52]
A
I can remember Caleb Johnson doing this year is not understanding the kickoff rule and casting on the game against Seattle. He just hasn't. Hasn't been out there. Not a great, great year for Caleb Johnson.
- [33:01]
B
Kenneth Gainwell, who I got for free, by the way. League of ass.
- [33:05]
A
Is he gonna start?
- [33:06]
B
Oh, yeah, he been starting for me.
- [33:07]
A
He's like six superstar running backs.
- [33:09]
C
He might start at his second quarterback.
- [33:11]
B
Kenny Gainwell is a Hall of Famer.
- [33:13]
A
Do you have Gibbs tail around Cook?
- [33:15]
B
Yes.
- [33:16]
A
Yeah, it's ridiculous.
- [33:18]
C
That's what it is. Lawrence went in a 2 QB league. Lawrence went 0 QB.
- [33:23]
B
I think James Cook was like my 6th round pick.
- [33:25]
A
That was a good pick. Pick bad boy.
- [33:27]
C
Yeah.
- [33:27]
A
Damn it. Sean Cartwright, Parkinson or Waller, now that you as a starting. Parkinson.
- [33:32]
C
Parkinson. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I really like. Yeah, I really like him too.
- [33:36]
A
We'll get to him in segment three, but he's going to be the second pass catching option after Puka Nakua. It looks like in a good matchup.
- [33:44]
C
Yeah.
- [33:44]
A
All right. Hate list. Stefan Diggs goes head to head with the Ravens on Sunday Night Football. It just hasn't happened for Diggs. It looked like he was really going to ignite after I believe his last appearance on Saturday Night Football against the Bills earlier in the year. But he just has these anonymous games and he's just become like a 3 for 26 type of guy.
- [34:03]
C
Three straight games with under six fantasy points. He's just not even out there. He's got a 56% route participation over the last three games. Since week six. He has two games, literally only two games with more than 50 receiving yards. He's had three or fewer catchers and catches in five of the last seven. Yeah, I just, I just don't know how you can rip, risk starting Stefon Diggs this week in a matchup against the Baltimore Ravens. It's been a tough day. Tough cut stretch here for Stefon Diggs like he's got the ability to always explode for one.
- [34:30]
A
But just is that flashes.
- [34:32]
B
He needs attention.
- [34:34]
C
This is the.
- [34:34]
A
It doesn't scold him is the problem.
- [34:36]
C
This is the Sunday night game. Be a great game. It's on the NBC and Peacock course I'm a company man. So Patriots at the Ravens. Ravens trying to, you know, stay alive in the playoffs. Patriots obviously trying to wrap up that number one season. But I'm super bummed. I just want to take a moment here if you don't mind because we're going to stay here in Stanford for all of us on football night in America. But you know what? This game was flexed in. This game was flexed in.
- [34:59]
B
I thought about what you about to say.
- [35:00]
C
You know what, you know what the game was supposed to be? It was supposed to be Bengals and Miami. You understand?
- [35:10]
A
South Beach, Madden.
- [35:11]
C
I could have. That's right. It's freezing as hell here in Connecticut. It. Me, me and my, my football night in America family. We could have been in Miami this week.
- [35:20]
A
Yeah.
- [35:20]
C
Sunbathing. I could, I could have. I could have been tearing it up at live Lawrence.
- [35:25]
B
I could have been, you know, like, you know, you would have been in there like Maddie. Big bucks, right?
- [35:31]
C
That's exactly right.
- [35:32]
B
Making it rain on him, man.
- [35:34]
C
I could have. Could have been in south beach but.
- [35:36]
A
You and Drake celebrating Quinn's maiden victory.
- [35:39]
B
But unfortunately the team that plays there.
- [35:44]
A
Nor is the other team.
- [35:45]
B
Nor's.
- [35:46]
C
The other team just mentioned their backup quarterback. Starting quarterback. So it's. I'm. I'm a bitter berry. I had a chance at being in Miami and it's. I don't know why it is but every time we travel and I listen, I love being on football night in America. It's such a thrill, such an honor. And it's always cool. It never gets old when I go there and I'm like, holy crap, I'm on the sideline of NFL Stadium, you know, about ready to do a game, but it's always cold weather stadium. For the love of God, why can't we ever go to la? Why can't we ever go. We would have got to try to.
- [36:14]
B
Do the show there too.
- [36:16]
C
Once when I first got here, the.
- [36:19]
A
Very first game, Rams, Bills.
- [36:21]
C
We had Rams Bills at Sofi. And other than that, it's been like, oh, we're going to Kansas City again. Freeze our butt off. You know, like Philadelphia. We've been in Philadelphia like four times. Pittsburgh, the Length, you know, all the.
- [36:32]
A
Good tees raise the flags, Barry. Bengals defense versus your Dolphins or Waller and Waller or Bucs D versus your Cokeheads, which I believe is the Carolina Panthers.
- [36:47]
C
Boy, that's a tough one here. I'm gonna.
- [36:50]
B
I'd roll dice on the Bengals.
- [36:53]
A
Yeah, go up against.
- [36:55]
B
Gotta go against. Gotta go.
- [36:58]
A
Not super inspiring option.
- [37:00]
C
Yeah, I think I'd go with the Bucs defense personally. Here's why. We've got no idea on Quinn Ewers. We've got no idea.
- [37:07]
A
Well, no idea. He's not going to be great. But they might run the ball all game.
- [37:12]
C
Well, that's the point, right? It's just like they've still got Waddle and Warren Waller. They've still got Waddle and Waller and Achan and don't forget like crap. Who's the guy, who's the guy that started the playoff? The third string quarterback, Skyler Thompson. Skyler Thompson.
- [37:30]
A
Well, they couldn't get the plays in ever.
- [37:32]
B
I almost forgot about it. I can't believe to play.
- [37:36]
C
But that's my point. Skyler Thompson was competent in that game. They couldn't get the plays in but.
- [37:41]
B
He wait for a seventh round pick. He was like, all right.
- [37:45]
C
For a seventh round pick that had one week to start. Yeah, no, they were much better. And I just. Yours are going to be fine. I just. I think that the Panthers will not offer a lot of opportunities for turnovers because they're going to play conservative. They're going to run the ball. It could just.
- [38:00]
A
Yeah, you're talking me too. Well, speaking of Quinn Ewers speaking of Miami, speaking of Liv, we heard from Mike McDaniel on the decision to make the quarterback change.
- [38:11]
C
I need.
- [38:13]
B
Convicted quarterback play.
- [38:15]
C
This team needs convicted quarterback play.
- [38:17]
A
I thought Quinn gave us the best.
- [38:19]
C
Chance to do that and that's, that's why I did it. I've been trying to coach and trying.
- [38:24]
A
To improve and when, when things, you know, aren't to the standard, I have to change it. Okay, well, Dolphins fans, you drink for free.
- [38:39]
C
You got nice weather, you got.
- [38:41]
A
50 plus million guaranteed to tour tag of a lower next year as well.
- [38:45]
C
Tough, tough situation. What's going on in Miami? So Dolphin fans, we feel bad for you, but on the plus side, many of you live in Miami where, where all the beautiful people live. Yes, there are a lot of attractive people in Miami on both sides of the ball.
- [38:57]
A
Yes. And you know, and one of those beautiful people, Lawrence is Jalen Waddle. He's on my hate list for you.
- [39:04]
B
Yeah, he hasn't been beautiful for him on the field. Wide receiver 40 or worst in three of his last four games. And the one time he wasn't, it was because he caught a touchdown against the jets. He only went five for 50 yards that game. So. So wide receiver 11 gets the jets. That. That don't do nothing for me. Now you're going against the Bengals and you think, ah, Bengals weak defense. Yes. Weak against the run, weak against tight ends versus receivers, though. Only one receiver has over 50 receiving yards versus this weak Bengals defense in their last five games, and that was Zay Flowers, who was on Jay's Lovelace, and he only has 68. So if Darren Waller, we like him this week. We don't feel great about the receivers with a rookie quarterback. So for all of those reasons, Waddle got to be on my hate list for this week.
- [40:01]
C
I get it, I get it. Yeah, DJ Turner's had a great year.
- [40:04]
A
Yep, they'll put him some in the.
- [40:06]
C
Slot, but still, it's.
- [40:07]
A
Yeah, this last one, it hurts me. But on the hate list, my illegitimate godson Alec Pierce against the Niners on Monday Night Football.
- [40:14]
C
Ball.
- [40:14]
A
It's not your fault, Alex. It's not your fault. Just like Robin Williams said to Matt Damon once upon a time, it is not your fault, Alec. But your quarterback can't throw the ball downfield. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Shane Steichen knows more about the Colts quarterback situation than I do and is making the best decision for the team, but, yeah, I don't understand how they've wound up with Villa Rivers because that guy couldn't do anything against us. Yeah, they can't throw the ball down.
- [40:38]
C
Better. Second year, second week. Back, back. Not playing Seattle.
- [40:41]
A
Maybe it's this fountain of youth stuff.
- [40:43]
B
From the neck up. From the neck up.
- [40:44]
A
You don't want to be starting Alex Pierce. All right, we're gonna hit our first break. When we come back, it's love, hate, quarterbacks.
- [40:56]
B
Hard to keep believing in the process.
- [40:58]
A
No, that's all you got. You know what I mean? That's the only thing you can rely on and you know, and find ways to. Ways to tweak that and try to get better at it.
- [41:08]
C
Have you been in places where they.
- [41:10]
B
Stopped believing in the prospect?
- [41:11]
A
Yeah, I have won't name the team, but yeah, you will be able to tell really fast based on the product that's being put out there. And, you know, you'll see. You'll just see. Guys do uncharacteristic things which I don't think I've seen any of those signs that are remotely close to those signs now, so. But yeah, I definitely know what it looks like. That was Arizona Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissette on believing in the process. Keep trusting the process. Jacoby worked out well for the Sixers. He comes in at quarterback four for you, Matthew, which is kind of stunning, really. It's in between Drake May, whose second favorite for mvp, and Joe Burrow, who's one of the four best quarterbacks in football. But pretty favorable matchup against the first Falcons.
- [41:59]
C
Unbelievable matchup against the Falcons. For the past five quarterbacks to face Atlanta have scored at least 19 fantasy points. And you think about Joe Kobe Brissette. Right. Six straight games with 40 or more pass attempts. The Cardinals lead the NFL in pass rate under Brissette. Right. And so all nine of his starts, he's had at least 18 fantasy points since taking over as a starter. He's the fourth best quarterback in fantasy. He's QB4 for me this week against your Falcons and yeah. Jacoby Brissette, unbelievable.
- [42:27]
B
Yeah. He throw the ball enough to do it.
- [42:29]
A
It's so upset. He is the great innings eater of our times in terms of what he's been able to do since week six. He is QB4. Only Josh Allen, Jackson Dart and the immortal Trevor Lawrence are in front of him. He's ahead of the two guys who are favorites for mvp, Drake May and Matthew Stafford.
- [42:47]
C
Yep. And just ahead of since week six.
- [42:49]
A
Yep. At and also ahead of Joe Flacco.
- [42:53]
B
Don't just look over Joe Flacco.
- [42:55]
C
Six the fantasy leaders. Josh Allen, Jackson Dart, Trevor Lawrence, Jacoby Brissette, Drake May at 5, Matthew Stafford at 6. I mean, not even close. Pretty absurd what we thought at the beginning of the year.
- [43:06]
A
Well, a guy who's not in that top 10 since week six. Jalen hurts. A bit of a disappointing stretch. He's had moments. Jalen hurts this season, but before that game against the Raiders where he got right, he was is going through it. But I think that he will continue this bounce back with a matchup that is about as good as it gets against the Commanders. The Commanders allowed six most points to Fantasy in Fantasy 2 quarterbacks this season. And again, just wouldn't expect your secondary to have much respite. Matthew against Jalen hurts.
- [43:35]
C
No, I don't think we will. I mean, we. We're playing a little bit better, but that's such a low bar.
- [43:39]
A
Yeah.
- [43:39]
C
Yes. Hertz is back. He'll be fine.
- [43:41]
A
Yep.
- [43:42]
C
All right.
- [43:42]
A
Another guy who should be fine is Jared Goff. Goff, who quietly is having another really good season in Detroit, putting up numbers. It's the defense that's the problem at the moment, but that defense is putting him in scripts where he needs to throw. And this total against Pittsburgh is 52.
- [43:57]
C
And a half since week nine. Jared Goff, to your point about playing better recently, since week nine, Jared Goff is the eighth best quarterback in fantasy football. On a points per game basis, he's averaging over 290 passing yards a game. And then you mentioned the over under right 52. Well, the implied team total for the Lions, 29 and a half. So you're looking at like four touchdowns basically. Maybe a field goal if they get there close. All right, so by the way, during this entire stretch since week nine, Matthew Stafford is the only guy, as you see it there on your screen, Matthew Stafford, the only quarterback with more touchdown passes since Jared Goff. Again, the game's in Detroit indoors against the Steelers, 52 and a half over under. I think you want as much a part of this game as you can get. Jared Goff is my QB7 for the week.
- [44:41]
A
Okay. Love it, Lawrence. Justin Herbert on the love list here. Even though the broken hand has given him some issues, he's still been able to run the ball. And it's a pretty favorable matchup against the Dallas team that can't stop anyone.
- [44:53]
B
Definitely been tough for him recently. Quarterback 27 last week against the Chiefs. They still got the wins. Been no better than quarterback 17 since week nine. However, young man, you playing these Dallas Cowboys this week and they will out the most fantasy point per game to these quarterbacks. Right. Dallas has allowed three touchdowns to quarterbacks in three of their last four games. The one that didn't was Jared Goff. And that's because Jameer Gibbs had an explosive day. Look no further than JJ McCarthy last week had his best game of his young career against these Dallas Cowboys. He was quarterback seven against the Cowboys. And you mentioned the rushing for Justin Herbert. He's having a career year here running the ball. Three out of his last five games, he's ran for at least 55 yards. So when you add that to what you could do in the passing game versus Dallas Cowboys defense. I see him having a big game here.
- [45:50]
A
Yeah, I think the key thing is just the rushing elevates the floor a little bit. He's like stiff arming dudes with his left hand.
- [45:56]
C
Oh, for sure.
- [45:57]
A
He just doesn't care. All right, others receiving votes. Headline by C.J. stroud. He's had a strange year, but has shown flashes lately, Matthew. And now gets a very powerful matchup against the writers.
- [46:05]
C
Since week 11, Las Vegas has allowed the higher highest passer rating to opposing quarterbacks in the NFL. They're also giving up touchdown passes at the second highest rate in the league during that stretch. Also that dynasty league that I'm talking about. I'm playing against Stroud, so you know he's going off. How about Tyler Schuck against the Jets? Right? 17 fantasy points. And for the past five starts, he's been a top 12 quarterback in that stretch. And he's averaging over 31 rushing yards a game in his last four. And finally, Bryce Young, the Bryce Ler. Like it's all about Tampa bay. The last six quarterbacks to face Tampa Bay, right, the last six have all scored at least 18 fantasy points since Week 8. Tampa Bay is the worst pass defense in the NFL.
- [46:46]
A
Okay, let's jump to the hate list headline by the MVP favorite, the man whose jersey you spilled diet soda on recently, Matthew, and that is your namesake, Matthew Stafford, who goes up to against the Seahawks defense on the road after a flight delay. Devontae Adams listed doubtful, unlikely to play. Very tough matchup here for Stafford.
- [47:07]
C
Yeah, I mean, listen, and by the way, Stafford, who's brilliant this year, his worst game of the year was against his third. Worst year of the game, I should say was in Week 11 against Seattle. He had just 13 fantasy points. Seattle allows just 6 yards per pass attempt this season. That's lowest in the NFL. And then again, as you mentioned, Devonte Adams, we don't expect him to play. 36% of Stafford's touchdown passes this season have come from Devonte Adams. So just again, you see what he did last week against Seattle. It's a short week. You don't love it. Ideally you have better options than Stafford.
- [47:40]
A
Yeah, well, if Stafford does play poorly, Lawrence, that might open the door for Drake May to get more into the MVP conversation. But he also has a difficult matchup against Baltimore.
- [47:48]
B
And I say it's slightly tougher for Matthew Stafford. But just be wary with Drake May going into this weekend. Definitely not saying bench him, but just know that Baltimore's allowed three touchdown passes in their last three games. I'm talking about the Baltimore defense right here. They've allowed the seven fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks. We know Drake May likes to run. And interesting thing, man, Drake May had 21 and a half fantasy points last week, but 15 of them was in the first quarter. So all I'm saying is Baltimore defense has been better. Better just watch out.
- [48:25]
A
Yep. Hey listen me Trevor Lawrence who's been on an absolute heater lately. A lot of that though has come against some of the worst teams in the NFL. Teams like the jets, the Titans, the Cardinals defense, the Raiders. So I think that might be a bit of a rude awakening coming up against Denver's defense on the road. Denver the fifth fewest Fancy points two quarterbacks we're going to hit our last break. When we come back it is last call. Our best Bets for Rams. DraftKings Sportsbook is an official sports betting partner of the NFL. New customers can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets. If your bet wins, download the app use promo code ffhh when you sign up. DraftKings sportsbook.
- [49:14]
C
Is Crown of yours all.
- [49:16]
A
Right, let's take a look at some notable prop for Thursday Night Football. It's a good one. Rams at Seahawks oh plus money appearing in this traffic for the first time in quite a while. Matthew Stafford passing touchdowns two plus at plus 101 which speaks to the difficulty of the matchup. 100 plus receiving yards also in there at plus 118. My best bet for this game. I'm gonna take Jackson Smith in jig for over six and a half receptions when he plays the Rams. A bit over a month ago he had nine receptions on 12 targets. I think a lot of JSN season long stats are suppressed by just the fact that the Seahawks haven't need to throw in a lot of these games. This game is pick Seahawks inching towards minus one and a half point favorites so I think they'll need to throw a little bit more than usual. And jsn, you know this is season defining game. He'll get at least seven catches. What do you like Lawrence?
- [50:06]
B
I'm gonna go Puka Nakua to have three receptions in the first quarter because listen man Puka with your new social media career buddy, you better play good or going to be on you. I'm going three receptions here. He's actually done this in three out of his last four games and then there's no devonte Adams so I'm taking that.
- [50:27]
C
I'm also looking at the Rams passing attack, especially with no Devonte Adams. How about Colby Parkinson over 39.5 receiving yards. Talked about this earlier in the show, but Seahawks second most yards allowed to opposing tight ends. Parkinson's had at least a 15% target shoot in three straight games at his highest route participation last week. Again no devonte Adams feels like he's taking over that that tight end room. They like Parkinson, he had the two touchdowns as well. So yeah, give me Colby Parkinson over 39.5 receiving yards. He had 75 last week.
- [50:59]
A
Okay, let's take a look Matthew at some of your top players for this matchup. Matthew Stafford, QB17. It's been a long time since he was that far down board. That speaks again to the matchup. Sam Donald as well, the brutal matchup last time he played the Rams of course had those four interceptions.
- [51:15]
C
Yeah, I don't think you Kyron Williams had a running back 20 so he's a low end RB2 and but I don't think you want any part of Corum, Ken Walker or Zach Charbonnet. Parkinson, as we've talked about, he's my tight end 10 but you're starting Puka, you're starting JSN. Both of them top three wide receivers for me but that's about it in this game. I think you're starting Puka and jsn Parkinson said a tight end. You're starting Kyron Williams at running back and that's about it. That I feel like.
- [51:41]
A
Yeah, real life blockbuster fancy wise perhaps.
- [51:43]
C
Not a fiesta just yeah, you kind of like the defenses there. All right. That music means it's closing time. You don't have to go home, but you can't stay here. Good luck tonight for Lawrence and Jay. I'm Matthew. Go read my 10 Facts column on rotoworld.com right now. Peace out.