Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry

Week 16 Start/Sit: Quinshon Judkins, Rashee Rice, Emeka Egbuka + Tua Tagovailoa Benched
Date: December 17, 2025
Host: Connor Rogers (for Matthew Berry), with Jay Croucher and Lawrence Jackson, Jr.
Episode Overview
This packed episode guides listeners through tough Week 16 start/sit decisions, breaking fantasy news, detailed positional breakdowns, and sharp analysis of league and playoff trends. With Matthew Berry out sick, the team provides injury updates, context on key quarterback changes, and deep dives into running back, wide receiver, and tight end options—plus audience Q&A, bar trivia, and a look at awards/futures odds.

Main Theme

Start/Sit Strategy & Playoff Survival
The episode’s core focus is on helping fantasy managers make the right start/sit calls during the playoffs—especially given major quarterback changes (notably, Tua Tagovailoa’s benching for rookie Quinn Ewers), the impact on skill players, and lingering injury risks. The crew weighs in on players whose stock is up or down, emphasizes matchup nuances, and gives actionable advice for every key position.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Breaking News: Tua Benched, Quinn Ewers Starts

• [03:00] Dolphins bench Tua Tagovailoa for rookie Quinn Ewers vs. the Bengals.
• Impact:
  • "No matter who's under center, you're still going to start Devon Achane." – Lawrence Jackson, Jr. [03:00]
  • Jalen Waddle becomes more volatile, with expectations further lowered.
  • Darren Waller is now even more touchdown-dependent.
• Quinn Ewers’ Profile:
  • “Last year in college football, the accuracy wasn't where we hoped it would be. He'll like to move around a little bit to try to buy some time, but I think you're going to see a lot of quick game.” – Connor Rogers [04:06]
  • Miami’s offense may become heavily short-pass/ground game oriented.
  • Definite downgrade for Waddle; less optimism for pass-catchers.

2. Keep It Open or Close It Out: Start/Sit Dilemmas

Challenging roster decisions for the playoffs—should you “keep the window open" (start) or "close it out" (sit)? (Timestamps indicate discussion start)

Quarterback

• Justin Herbert @ Cowboys [07:22]
  • Despite a bland stretch (five sub-15 point games), matchup is favorable.
  • “Herbert is running more than ever... in fantasy, 50 rushing yards is 5 points.” – Lawrence Jackson, Jr. [08:31]
  • Start Herbert: Ranks as QB11; upside is there, especially with increased rushing.

Running Backs

• Quinshon Judkins @ Bills [10:43]

  • Volume remains, but efficiency and game script are concerns.
  • “Running backs that face the Bills this season are averaging over 5 yards a carry…” – Lawrence Jackson, Jr. [10:59]
  • Slight lean to starting due to potential high upside if Bills' run D leaks continue.
  • Start, but temper expectations.

• Aaron Jones vs. Giants [12:54]

  • Recent slump; hope lies in receiving work (14% target share since Week 10).
  • “This Giants team is very much running out the season.” – Jay Croucher [13:53]
  • Start as fringe RB2/FLEX.

• Ashton Gentry vs. Texans [16:12]

  • “Gentry is not working in fantasy right now... just not adding up.” – Lawrence [17:12]
  • Sit/Gentry is a hard fade, even in desperate spots.

• Tyrone Tracy (Comparison)

  • Tracy outpaces Judkins in committee, offers higher receiving upside for Week 16.

Wide Receivers

• Rashee Rice @ Titans [19:01]

  • Gardner Minshew starting does not significantly change Rice’s outlook.
  • “Since Week 7, 12th in target share, 5th in targets per game.” – Jay [19:01]
  • “Rashee Rice is the number one receiver.” – Lawrence [21:17]
  • Start confidently—top 10 WR for the week.

• Justin Jefferson vs. Giants [21:54]

  • Acknowledges his struggles but highlights target share and improving rapport with J.J. McCarthy.
  • Start and keep the faith: “Jefferson...trending in the right direction...I’d actually start him with confidence.” – Connor [24:26]

• Emeka Egbuka vs. Panthers [25:25]

  • Usage volatility but showed signs of life; discussion weighs him vs. Godwin, Pittman, Addison.
  • Mild optimism; start in deeper formats/if WR options are thin.

Tight End

• Mark Andrews (vs streaming options) [26:50]
  • "He could end up in the end zone any time, but that’s just not a bet I’m willing to take.” – Lawrence [27:16]
  • Under 20 yards in 3 of last 4; sit for better streaming options (e.g., Colby Parkinson, Hunter Henry, Juwan Johnson, Theo Johnson).

Rapid Start/Sit Rankings Recap [31:11]

• Keep it Open (Start): Justin Herbert (QB11), Quinshon Judkins (RB), Aaron Jones (RB), Rashee Rice (WR Top-10), Justin Jefferson (WR17).
• Close it Out (Sit): Ashton Gentry (RB25), Emeka Egbuka (WR37; fringe), Mark Andrews (TE20).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Dolphins QB change:

  • “It’s good news for the Bucs and Patriots…big win for the Bucks and Patriots.” – Jay [06:48]

• On Justin Jefferson’s mentality:

  • “I'm proud of myself...sticking with the game plan, sticking with the guys that we have...” – Justin Jefferson (audio clip) [22:05]

• On most frustrating fantasy players:

  • “If there’s anybody out there...Judkins or Gentry, I would say Judkins for you, my friend. You gotta pray.” – Lawrence [18:08]

• On Mark Andrews:

  • "If you've got Kyle Pitts on your team, you're elated to put him in over Mark Andrews." – Lawrence [28:08]

• Fantasy playoff league banter:

  • “...the good thing is that Matthew Berry cannot win the league. That’s all that really matters.” – Jay [33:30]

Audience Interaction: Q&A & Bar Trivia

Audience Start/Sit Q&A

• Kelsey or Waller (with backups)?
  • Still Kelsey for veteran floor, even with a backup QB. [06:30]
• Numerous RB and WR toss-up questions, often answered by leaning towards players with higher volume, better matchups, or more pass-catching work.

Fantasy Bar Trivia Segment [35:17]

• Interactive trivia on player efficiency and rankings.
• Fun, smart banter about surprising stats:
  • What QB is #2 in fantasy points per pass attempt? (Answer: Jared Goff)
  • What RB is #2 in points per touch? (Answer: Kenneth Gainwell)
  • Which WR is tied for #6 in red zone targets? (Answer: Troy Franklin)

Memorable banter throughout ("Keanu Reeves has two modes..." [31:58]); crew chemistry makes even data-driven segments lively.

Futures & Awards Bets [45:36]

• NFC North Winner:
  • Jay picks Bears (+105, highlighting Packers’ injuries)
• AFC North Winner:
  • Lawrence likes Ravens (+105), noting schedule and defensive edge.
• Saints Over 5.5 Wins:
  • Connor touts their favorable remaining schedule.
• Coach of the Year, Comeback Player, Division Races
  • Jay: “If [Shanahan] runs the slate, that’s your Coach of the Year.”

Quick Reference: Important Segment Timestamps

• Tua benching fallout: [03:00–07:22]
• Herbert start/sit debate: [07:22–09:43]
• Running backs: Judkins, Jones, Gentry: [10:43–18:32]
• WRs: Rice, Jefferson, Egbuka: [19:01–26:50]
• Tight end close-outs: [26:50–29:23]
• Trivia segment: [35:17–44:34]
• Awards/futures talk: [45:36–50:59]

Final Takeaways

• Don’t panic-bench reliable players like Devon Achane or Justin Jefferson, even with QB changes or recent lows.
• Target volume and matchup, not just recent fantasy finish, when choosing playoff starters.
• Stream tight end if you’ve been relying on Mark Andrews.
• Rashee Rice is a set-and-forget WR1 down the stretch, even with Minshew in.
• Engage with league management and bar trivia to keep fantasy fun—even as the pressure mounts!

For all weekly rankings, check out Matthew Berry’s full projections and waiver columns on nbcsports.com, Peacock, or the NFL on NBC YouTube Channel.

“See you guys tomorrow—for Love/Hate, when Matthew’s back!” – Connor Rogers [51:38]