Week 16 Takeaways: Derrick Henry, Kenneth Gainwell, Trevor Lawrence + Key QB injuries

Summary

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Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry

Episode: Week 16 Takeaways: Derrick Henry, Kenneth Gainwell, Trevor Lawrence + Key QB injuries
Date: December 22, 2025
Hosts: Matthew Berry, Jay Croucher, Connor Rogers (NBC Sports)

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the chaos and drama of fantasy football Week 16, unpacking critical game and player performances that shaped fantasy playoff semifinals. The crew discusses the wild swings from star players, QB injuries, emerging heroes, and coaching controversies. Notably, the episode spotlights big games from Derrick Henry, Kenneth Gainwell, and Trevor Lawrence, while parsing through injuries that will impact fantasy title games. They also forecast next week’s fantasy/start-sit landscape and dish out betting insights.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Week 16’s Fantasy Landscape: Feast or Famine

• Fantasy Playoff Pressure: Widespread frustrations as high-profile players either exploded or completely disappeared, often on fantasy benches.
  • Jay: “It was literally the tale of two halves… every fantasy player either went off, or they just completely sucked.” (02:44)
• Locker Room/Team Vibes: Positive momentum in locker rooms like Jacksonville, Carolina, and New England post-victory, paralleling “green room” energy before the show. (01:00-01:30)
• Coaching/Team Disappointments: Buccaneers and Lions highlighted for underperformance, with Tampa Bay’s offensive/defensive collapse and Detroit’s run-defense debacle.

2. Notable Performances & Player Deep Dives

Stefon Diggs Resurrection

• Breakout Game: 9 catches, 138 yards, 1 TD; 20+ fantasy points for just the second time this season (04:26).
  • Jay: “On benches everywhere. By the way, no one started him.” (04:28)
• Usage Patterns: Volume is key; Diggs needs heavy targets to succeed, lacking consistent involvement all season.
  • Jay: “They just take him off the field a lot. Last night, finally they didn't.” (05:57)
• Patriots’ ‘Democratic’ Offense: Too much distribution, leading to inconsistent fantasy outputs.
  • Connor Rogers: “It's a great argument against democracy because everyone gets a voice in this offense and it’s really annoying.” (05:28)

Derrick Henry: Back to Life, But Benched in Crunch Time

• Big Start, Abrupt Finish: Most rushing yards since Week 1, but disappeared in the 4th quarter.
  • Matthew Berry: “After about 13 minutes left in the fourth quarter, we never saw him again.” (09:51)
• Coaching Critique: Ravens’ decision to bench him late drew ire from the pod and broadcast.
  • Connor: “[It] was like a kind of old school NBA tanking move…” (10:00)
  • Collinsworth (referenced): Called out the play calling—“That’s just got to be Derrick Henry on the field.” (11:11)
  • Jay: “I’m trying to defend something that I think is semi-indefensible.” (11:02)
• Harbaugh’s Future: Speculation that a Ravens-Harbaugh split might be imminent due to team disappointment. (11:46)

Kenneth Gainwell & Jalen Warren: Running Back Revelations

• Ascendant Value: Both finish as top-10 RBs for the week; praised by Aaron Rodgers for intelligence and pass game savvy.
  • Aaron Rodgers (audio quote): “Kenny's been unbelievable in the passing game. Just unbelievable. And he's so damn smart...” (15:48)
  • Jay: “Since Week 11, Kenneth Gainwell... the 8th best running back in fantasy.” (17:09)
• Steelers O-Line Dominance: Lions D blown off the ball; Warren’s explosive runs exposed Detroit’s run-defense flaws. (18:30)
• Coaching Malpractice on Display: Lions’ disastrous end-game clock management and play calling possibly ended their playoff hopes.
  • Connor: “If you just run the ball four times up the middle, your season is alive and you’re going to make the playoffs. You’re actively making the choice to end your season.” (19:23)

Trevor Lawrence: Unlocking Fantasy Ceiling

• Performance Spike: First 300-yard passing game of the year, 31+ fantasy points; spreading it around despite missing Travis Hunter.
  • Trevor Lawrence (audio quote): “You can’t just show up and win games in this league… I think that’s something our team does a really good job of, playing with that chip on your shoulder.” (22:52)
• Trusting Lawrence Next Week?: Overcame tough match-ups; now a must-start for championship week.
  • Jay: “Will this team get respect?” Connor: “No, I hope not, honestly; hope we don’t get any.” (23:10)
  • Matthew Berry: “Since week five, he’s the second best quarterback in fantasy.” (23:28)
• Jaguars’ Playoff Profile: Discussed potential to win the AFC South, and possibility as surprise Super Bowl contender. (24:47)

Miami/Cincinnati: Chase Brown & Dolphins RB Room

• Chase Brown League Winner: Fifth-best RB in fantasy since Week 8; finally being used in the passing game with Joe Burrow back.
  • Jay: “Chase Brown has actually been really good... since week eight, he's been the fifth best running back in fantasy.” (38:38)
• Miami Backfield Headaches: Devon Achane explosive, but vultured at the goal line; frustrating workload splits persist.
  • Jay: “But it could have been so much of a bigger game… every week.” (40:00)

Other Injury & Depth Chart Impact Players

• Quarterback Carnage: Key injuries to Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love, Marcus Mariota, Gardner Minshew, and more discussed as pivotal for next week’s fantasy matchups. (40:40)
• Javonte Williams Slumps: Season-low in snap rate; “needs volume” RB profile highlighted as risky, but matchup-friendly next week versus Washington. (32:02)
• Baker Mayfield and Bucs Fall Flat: Extended slump, odd rotation at WR; team now trailing Panthers in the NFC South after another underwhelming week.

3. Betting/Bets Recap

• Jay’s Hot Streak: Five consecutive Berri's Bets cashed; shared personal parlay hits (13:01).
• Prop Bets Preview for MNF: Love for Christian McCaffrey’s rushing/receiving overs, Juwan Jennings as a sleeper, and expecting a big night from Jonathan Taylor as well. (49:49-50:47)

4. Fantasy MVPs, Waiver Wire, and Sunday Scaries

Fantasy MVP Discussion

• Consensus: Jackson Smith-Njigba (JSN)
  • Connor: “He’s been so consistent as well.” (41:46)
• James Cook’s Breakout: Outproducing expectations and is among league leaders in rushing TDs; only Jameer Gibbs has more over the last two seasons. (45:02-45:22)
• Harold Fannin Emerges: Top-scoring TE since Shadour Sanders took over for the Browns.

Sunday Scaries: Who Sunk You?

• Josh Allen (7.19 fantasy pts): “Ugly game in Cleveland… Allen does have these weird kind of games for on occasion…” (46:47)
• Jackson Dart, Drake London, Marvin Harrison Jr., Travis Kelce: Disappointing outputs from several normally trustworthy stars.
  • Jay: “Just completely submarine by the quarterback situation. You can’t start those guys next week against Denver.” (48:52)

Waiver Wire/Start-Sit Takeaways for Week 17

• Backfields to monitor: Cowboys (vs. Commanders), Chargers (vs. Houston & Denver), Jaguars (stack vs. Indy)
• Plug-ins for injured QBs: “If you are desperate in a superflex league... Quinn Ewers against the Bucs.” (39:47)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Fantasy’s All-or-Nothing Nature
  • Jay Croucher (02:44): “Every fantasy player either went off, just had this monster day, or they just completely sucked.”
• On Patriots’ Offense
  • Connor Rogers (05:28): “It's a great argument against democracy because everyone gets a voice in this offense and it’s really annoying.”
• On Derrick Henry’s Sideline
  • Jay Croucher (11:02): “I’m trying to defend something that I think is semi-indefensible.”
  • Matthew Berry (11:37): "Not even the excuseler can find an excuse of why Henry was out."
• Aaron Rodgers Praises Kenneth Gainwell/Jalen Warren
  • Aaron Rodgers (15:48): "...Kenny's been unbelievable in the passing game. Just unbelievable. And he's so damn smart."
• On Trevor Lawrence’s “No Respect”
  • Trevor Lawrence (22:52 & 23:06): “You can’t just show up and win games in this league... playing with that chip on your shoulder…”
  • Connor Rogers (23:10): “No, I hope not, honestly. Hope we don’t get any. So everybody out there, just keep it up.”
• On Lions’ Clock Management
  • Connor Rogers (19:23): “You're actively making the choice to end your season. Why are you running a pick play... when you have Jameer Gibbs? Just run the ball up the middle four times.”
• Chase Brown League Winner
  • Jay Croucher (38:38): “Since week eight, he's been the fifth best running back in fantasy football.”
• On the Bucs WR Mess
  • Connor Rogers (35:56): “There's no hierarchy. They're just all kind of out there two thirds of the time.”
• On Sunday Scaries
  • Jay Croucher (48:52): “Just completely submarine by the quarterback situation. You can’t start those guys next week against Denver.”

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Important Timestamps

• [01:00] – Opening and “green room” team/locker room vibes
• [04:26-06:11] – Patriots/Ravens recap; Stefon Diggs’ night and the “democracy” of the offense
• [09:51-11:40] – Derrick Henry’s great start and contentious sideline
• [13:01] – Jay’s Sunday night football betting streak
• [15:22-18:39] – Steelers-Lions breakdown: Warren/Gainwell, game flow, and Detroit’s run woes
• [22:52-26:11] – Trevor Lawrence and Jaguars, playoff hopes, fantasy reliability
• [38:38-39:08] – Chase Brown’s stat line, role in offense
• [40:40-41:31] – Key injuries rundown
• [46:47-48:57] – Sunday Scaries: Allen, London, Harrison Jr., Kelce
• [49:36-51:53] – MNF betting props & closing thoughts

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Episode Mood/Tone

True to the signature “Happy Hour” banter: lively, irreverent, quick-witted, and free-flowing. The hosts blend detailed fantasy analysis with razor-sharp humor, playful self-deprecation about their own teams and bets, and pop-culture/sports references. The pod maintains the comedic, slightly chaotic vibe, packed with both rapid-fire insight and memorable running jokes.

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Takeaways for Fantasy Players

• Don’t Overreact to Week 16 One-offs, But Monitor Coaching Usage: Benching stars (Henry, Diggs) may repeat, especially for teams out of playoff contention.
• Ride Hot Hands (Lawrence, Warren, Gainwell, Chase Brown) into finals; beware volatility from “democracy” offenses (Pats, Bucs).
• Monitor Injury News Early: Next week’s QB decisions will have huge ripple effects.
• Consider Matchups in Start/Sit Decisions: The right plug-and-play against bad defenses (e.g. Cowboys RBs vs. Washington) could swing championships.

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Closing Thought:
Matthew Berry: “Go get yourself a Monday night miracle. We’ll see you tomorrow. Peace out.” (51:53)

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Transcript

[Matthew Berry]

We've been playing championship playoff football for.

[Jay Croucher]

A long time, okay? For weeks and weeks. We just gotta keep continuing to find a way.

[Connor Rogers]

Everybody contributed to this win, okay?

[Jay Croucher]

And we got some players in here that are starting to realize what they can do, okay? We had some guys that make it to the game again. I'm proud to be your coach, okay? But we got a long way to go. Dixie Break. Hey, I love you boys. That's the way to fight. And come in here with that mindset.

[Connor Rogers]

All right? Hey, we all, we got, we all.

[Jay Croucher]

We need, gang on three. One, two, three. Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry.

[Matthew Berry]

Happy Monday. Welcome to the Fantasy football happy hour. And speaking of happy, those locker rooms, Jacksonville, Carolina and New England all celebrating after massive, massive wins. Matthew Berry, Jay Croucher, Connor Rogers.

[Jay Croucher]

It reminded me of the green room before the show. And honestly, after the show, after, we just go out there and we just absolutely crush it.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, right.

[Jay Croucher]

Like, seriously, I, I can't tell you how many times I, I turned to Connor and Jay, like, you know, we.

[Matthew Berry]

All, we got, we all we need.

[Jay Croucher]

Thank you. It's usually better than that, but, yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

You get the idea. I save it for the green room.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah. Of course.

[Matthew Berry]

Wasted out here.

[Jay Croucher]

Of course.

[Matthew Berry]

In front of the camera.

[Connor Rogers]

And Mike Panthers made that cut up.

[Jay Croucher]

What do you mean?

[Connor Rogers]

You've been playing championship playoff football for week. To be fair. They beat the Rams.

[Jay Croucher]

I'll pay that. I beat the Rams.

[Connor Rogers]

The bucks just aren't particularly.

[Matthew Berry]

I feel like I, I. Oh, you'll see him again in two weeks.

[Jay Croucher]

I'm so fright. I mean, B. Baker, Mike Evans are going to cost me a. A dynasty league championship, which I'm. I'm very bitter about. That was tough. You know me. I love Baker Mayfield. I love Baker Mayfield. Love Mike Evans. That was.

[Connor Rogers]

I'm old enough to remember when Baker Mayfield was the MVP favorite.

[Matthew Berry]

That's right.

[Connor Rogers]

Five weeks since that long ago, but what the hell. Yeah.

[Jay Croucher]

Come on back. Liam Cohen. All's forgiven. Oh, my God.

[Connor Rogers]

It's just not. They're just not very good. It's not a very good team.

[Jay Croucher]

No, they're bad.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, well, the defense is now falling apart.

[Connor Rogers]

Defense has fallen apart. And the offense isn't. It's not all world enough. Doesn't even play anymore. Like, I don't know what's going on.

[Matthew Berry]

It took a while to even see him.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah.

[Jay Croucher]

Todd Bowles blinked three different times, like that's how angry he is.

[Connor Rogers]

Here's the problem. Bowles went all out in the press conference after the loss to Atlanta. And then they show up like that. It's not like I played awful. I didn't embarrass themselves yesterday. But you got a big liner. Yeah. Disappointing.

[Jay Croucher]

You expected more? I. I feel like yesterday it was. It was literally the tale of two. Two halves. If you were. Or like, have the haves versus the have nots. I feel like every fantasy player either went off, right. Just had this monster day, or they just completely sucked. You know, from. From a fantasy football point of view, right? It was just like, oh, my God, I've got 27 points from this guy. Or like, I've got four.

[Matthew Berry]

Chase Brown did what?

[Jay Croucher]

Wait, exactly.

[Matthew Berry]

Javante Williams did what?

[Jay Croucher]

Right.

[Matthew Berry]

Nothing.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, exactly.

[Matthew Berry]

Wait a minute.

[Jay Croucher]

I'm sorry. Is this number for Josh Allen correct? You know what I mean? Like, wait a minute. Jackson Dart did what? Anyway, anyway, it's very, very tough. Medici says Barry at Lamar in all three of my leagues, and now I'm out of all three leagues. So I'm just here for the vibes. Nemo pitches and movie spoilers. That's pretty real regular.

[Matthew Berry]

That's a real regular right there. Not going anywhere.

[Connor Rogers]

You guys. You guys missed the commercial taping. We did. That's why I'm dressed in all black like John Wick. It's not for the Colts funeral tonight. It's for the commercial that we did. But in that commercial, I spoiled the end of Godfather 2. Fredo dies on the boat.

[Jay Croucher]

Wait, what?

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, I plan on watching that during the holiday break.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, with the family.

[Matthew Berry]

It's a real family flick for everybody. We got your weekend Warriors. We have your Sunday scaries that we already teased, and the Monday Night Football preview for old man rivers against the 49ers. But before we get into any of that, let's get into the recaps with the Roto World player news. And we start with last night's game. New England, Baltimore. The big stories coming out of this game was the injuries, but from a fantasy perspective, it's Stefan Diggs scoring 20 plus fantasy points for the second time this season. Matthew.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah. On benches everywhere. By the way, no one started him.

[Matthew Berry]

That's right.

[Connor Rogers]

No, he.

[Jay Croucher]

There was more yards and points that he'd had in the previous three games combined. Drake Miggs. I mean, like, in his prior three games, he'd had a 57.7percent route participation, you know, and this one, he gets an 80% route participation in games in which he sees seven or more targets. He averages almost 18 fantasy points per game. But when he sees five or fewer targets, it's just seven. Like he's not a big touchdown guy. He needs the volume. They were obviously very pass heavy last night and Diggsy went off but you know, 10 targets, nine for 138. He was awesome. It's just like, where's this been?

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah.

[Jay Croucher]

All season long.

[Matthew Berry]

They finally needed it. Yeah.

[Jay Croucher]

I mean, first 300 yard game, he was on my. He was on my bench in my. In my. This super flex dynasty league which I will talk about throughout the show. I'm very bitter about. You know, I had. I had Mike Evans and Aman Ross St. Brown starting over him, which seemed right at the time.

[Matthew Berry]

The OPI heard around the world.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. You know, this, this Patriots offense, it's a great argument against democracy because everyone gets a voice in this offense and it's really annoying. I don't think we need the democratic offense.

[Jay Croucher]

We need.

[Connor Rogers]

I don't understand why Deeks just hasn't had a more voluminous season. Because he's clearly still got it and he seems to just step up in these big primetime games. Goes off against the Bills that first Sunday night game. Torch the jets that Thursday night game goes off last night. Sunday football is always just saving him in reserve when they're on prime time. It's very odd.

[Matthew Berry]

They just take him off the field a lot. And last night, finally they didn't. He had the 80% route participation, which was his third this year. But the problem leading up to it, Jay is like, Diggs ran 52% of the routes Diggs ran. Maybe they're.

[Jay Croucher]

He was bad. He's been bad for like a month.

[Matthew Berry]

The thing is, when he's on the field, he's. He's good. It's just in fantasy. Volume is key. He is. He is not. Yeah, not even the land of the. The one eyed. We haven't used that one.

[Connor Rogers]

The one eyed man is king in.

[Jay Croucher]

The land of the blind.

[Connor Rogers]

Obviously the land of the blind.

[Jay Croucher]

The one eyed man is king. There it is.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, Missed that one. Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

Stuntmanshark85. Jay advocated for communism. That's what I'm here for. I believe Shane Falco in other replacements has also advocated for communism in his own type of way.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, exactly.

[Connor Rogers]

One of the great films.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

Better than Godfather Partition, honestly.

[Jay Croucher]

That's why Jay came from Australia to America.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. Communist land.

[Jay Croucher]

Communist land, yeah, exactly.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. Australia was originally part of the Eastern Bloc. People don't know this.

[Jay Croucher]

Coming over to bring your. Bring your propaganda to the States.

[Matthew Berry]

Another comment for you from shirtless Ben Johnson. Fredo was weak in State stupid.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, it's true. Yeah, that's why you have to go. Yes. On said boat there's somebody nothing wrong with the death.

[Matthew Berry]

It was correct. Move.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

Circle share the power of the family. You got the job done.

[Jay Croucher]

Got the job done. What are you going to do? Speaking of somebody who got the job done, Drake May yesterday. Is he not the favorite for the mvp? I haven't checked the odds this morning.

[Connor Rogers]

But no, it's Stafford's -215 at DraftKings, which I think, look, Drake May was phenomenal last night and the Patriots only have three losses on the season. I think Stafford is still going to win the award. The stats are just so overwhelming. I think if Stafford takes care of business, beats Atlanta on Monday Night Football, I think he will win mvp. But if he loses that game or is a bad showing, then Drake May is clearly the guy who will rise up now after Josh Allen. Josh Allen 6.9 fantasy points yesterday. Didn't really do anything, didn't assert himself in that conversation. So I think it's May versus Stafford. I think Stafford has the edge for now.

[Jay Croucher]

Third straight 20 point game and eight this season. It's tied for the second most, you know, 20 point games behind Matthew Stafford. It's been unbelievable. By the way, my two quarterbacks in the league of Matthew Stafford, Drake May. I'm absolutely crushing in this week in the loser bracket.

[Connor Rogers]

You have Derek Henry, you have Chase Brown.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

You're complaining about your team being garbage. You got the two.

[Jay Croucher]

What do you mean?

[Connor Rogers]

You got all the.

[Jay Croucher]

They all started slow.

[Matthew Berry]

The ninth place game.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, exactly. That's exactly right.

[Matthew Berry]

Good time for everybody to shine.

[Jay Croucher]

So annoying. So annoying. That's how everyone felt with Ashton Genty as well.

[Connor Rogers]

Oh my God. There's a lot of those. I think a lot of people are going to have the same emotion that I have of yesterday where my, my team went berserk in the fantasy semis in our league. So I have like Jalen Warren. I had JSN previously Brock Bauer, like my team put it was going to put up like almost 200 points at DJ Moore earlier. It's like I've wasted all these good games because I'm going to beat Stephen by like 100 points or something. Didn't need this. I need this Jaylen Warren game next week in the final and that's what's going to happen. My team's not that good. It's a little banged up.

[Matthew Berry]

You know, Herbert, this is a weird fantasy season.

[Jay Croucher]

I mean, they're all weird, but this.

[Matthew Berry]

One is super weirdly strange.

[Jay Croucher]

Super super weird. The only takeaway I can say from the Patriots and again, and Trevon Henderson gets banged up in this game. So it looks like next week it might be all Ramon Dre. You know, we'll see. Hopefully he can make it back. But, you know, and whatever. Hunter Henry, another guy that like done nothing and all of a sudden then Hunter Henry touched a touchdown. It just feels like, I don't know, that you feel great about Stefon Diggs moving forward. Now they do play the jets next week, so like maybe all hands on.

[Matthew Berry]

Deck, like you might not need to throw.

[Jay Croucher]

That's. That's the problem. Right, right. And so this was Drake May's first 300 yard passing game of, of. Of the season. And so, you know, you're starting Drake May no matter what, and I think you're starting especially if Trayvon Henderson's out, you're starting Ramondry next week. I don't know that you feel great about any of the pass catchers. Even though Diggs is coming off the big game. Henry had the touchdown. Just because to your point, democracy reigns. Democracy reigns in England. Right? Exactly. It's a little bit too much. There's just too many voices, unfortunately.

[Matthew Berry]

The good news on the Ravens side, if there's any, Derek Henry has his most rushing yards since week one. The bad news is after about 13 minutes left in the fourth quarter, we never saw him again.

[Connor Rogers]

It was like a kind of old school NBA tanking move where like all the starters come out in the fourth quarter. Like, why are the Raptors pulling all their players? But the Ravens needed to win this game to stay alive in the division. So I have no idea why Henry, particularly on the final drive, why it was the Kate and Mitchell show.

[Jay Croucher]

It was. It was malpractice for coaching. I don't understand it. Unless they felt like they needed the explosiveness of Mitchell because they felt like they were in game script and maybe just because. The only thing I can think of is that with Huntley back there, that maybe, whatever, who the hell knows, but maybe they felt like, hey, Huntley's back there. We don't really, like we're going to load the box. We're not really scared about Tyler Huntley. Like we. So they felt like having Mitchell in there versus Henry gave them more outs. Right. As opposed to like if Henry's back, if they've got Hunley on her center and Henry's in the backfield, New England knows. All right, well, this is. They're just going to Try to run and let's just stack the box. So maybe with Mitchell in there, maybe there's a dump off. You've got more sort of space. I don't know. It was.

[Connor Rogers]

The issue is.

[Jay Croucher]

But I'm trying to defend something that I think is semi indefensible.

[Matthew Berry]

Horrible after the game. Pretty much regretted it.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, of course I don't.

[Matthew Berry]

I don't think you have to defend anything.

[Connor Rogers]

Collinsworth called it out on the broadcast. So there was one early down play action play with Kate and Mitchell as the back. I'm sorry, like that's just got to be Derek Henry. Derek Henry has more gravity on a first down play action call. So yeah, very.

[Jay Croucher]

This is how bad it was because if regulars. You guys remember Jay Crouch was talking about how Keith Mitchell's better than Derek Henry.

[Connor Rogers]

Exactly.

[Jay Croucher]

At the beginning. Right.

[Connor Rogers]

Last night made me reevaluate that stance.

[Jay Croucher]

Exactly.

[Matthew Berry]

Ryan Oswald. Not even the excuseler can find an excuse of why Henry was out.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, no, exactly.

[Matthew Berry]

That's when you know it's a wrong decision.

[Jay Croucher]

I wonder if. I think he probably will but like I know there are people calling for Harbaugh's head at the end of the season.

[Matthew Berry]

It might just be a fresh start for both sides kind of thing. Harbaugh will have a new head coaching job elsewhere and the Ravens maybe look for a fresh start. Yeah, I mean they're one of the most disappointing teams in the entire NFL season. There's no way around it, injuries or not.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, I mean Lamar missed time but missed three games like they should be. It's not like the steals have run away with this division and now the steals are very likely going to win the division. They're minus 1,000.

[Jay Croucher]

This is a bad loss. Obviously tough to lose Lamar like I now need. I'm in the finals of a Guillotine league and Lamar was my quarterback. So I now need John. I need somehow need Jonathan Taylor to outscore Chris McCaffrey and George Kittle tonight to win this Guillotine league.

[Connor Rogers]

So is it probable?

[Jay Croucher]

It seems unlikely. But if Lamar had just gotten me, you know, a normal game, I win this league going away.

[Matthew Berry]

Well, you want some more positive news? Yes, sir. The streets are saying that all your Sunday night football bets cashed last night.

[Jay Croucher]

This is true.

[Matthew Berry]

Look at this.

[Connor Rogers]

True. The roll streets.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, the. The parlay cash I had. I had an outline with Henry of the rushing yards. I had an anytime touchdown for Derek Henry and of course Drake May to do 270 passing and rushing yards combined so that all cashed along with my Berries bet, which was just the over on Drake May passing that obviously easy cash. It's now five in a row for Berri's bet.

[Connor Rogers]

Whoa.

[Jay Croucher]

Parlays are. Parlays are tough. Obviously that's the. That's why the odds are so high on the parlays because they're less likely to win. But the ber always what I sort of judge myself on. And so we've. We've been hot lately. So five in a row for the Berries bet. I also picked the Patriots to win. Jason Garrett picked the Ravens. The reason I bring that up is because as me and Jason Garrett, we, we keep track of, you know, all the people on football night in America. We keep track of our, our game picks. Jason won it last year. I won it two years ago. And so it's Jason.

[Matthew Berry]

Battle of the Titans.

[Connor Rogers]

Just you two every year. Yeah. Last year.

[Jay Croucher]

Last year was Jason Garrett. The year before it was Rodney Harrison. The first year I was in, I finished second to Rodney last year, I believe. And then the first year I was here, I won it. So I got a shot at winning it again. Jason and I are now tied heading into week 17.

[Connor Rogers]

There's a lot of people who make picks. It's strange that it would come down to two guys. Three out of the four years.

[Matthew Berry]

Right.

[Connor Rogers]

That's all.

[Jay Croucher]

There you go. I know what to tell you.

[Matthew Berry]

Like Josh Allen and Mahomes.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah. It's often compared like that. But anyway, it was a good night. Good night at the office for, for the betting. Thanks to everyone who tailed me as well. I don't know that there's a real takeaway here from the raven side of the ball either, other than it was nice to see Zay Flowers. I mean, not nice because I was playing against him and I just needed that. Like they give up a rushing touchdown. You're like dude, killing me. But. But Zay Flowers was fantastic. Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

Also good luck setting a line for Packers Ravens next week on Saturday night.

[Jay Croucher]

Jordan Love, concussion protocol. Malik Willis dealing with an injury.

[Matthew Berry]

Shoulder injury.

[Jay Croucher]

Shoulder injury sound good?

[Matthew Berry]

Optimistic at the moment.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. Packers are minus two and a half right now, which again is complete guesswork.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, I don't. I don't even know who the third string packers quarterback is, do you? It was Sean Clifford, but he's not on the team anymore.

[Matthew Berry]

No, they cut him. Yeah. Their third string quarterback. It would have to be down to the practice squad. He's not on the active roster.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah. The Domajowski, Clayton Toon. Clayton Tune.

[Matthew Berry]

I remember Clayton Tune.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah. Former Arizona Cardinal great Clayton Tune.

[Matthew Berry]

Damn. That is Ludicon. Clayton Tune, Brady Cook. The guys that are starting next week.

[Jay Croucher]

Are welcome to the NFL.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. Iron. If the Colts lose and Anthony Richardson fit, you bring Phil Rivers over to Packers.

[Jay Croucher]

Phil Rivers is going to be a hot free agent.

[Matthew Berry]

I know he might be in demand in the.

[Jay Croucher]

In the off season as well.

[Matthew Berry]

All right, our next game.

[Jay Croucher]

Steelers talk about this one.

[Matthew Berry]

Steelers, Lions, one of the most. We will talk about the insane ending, but obviously the storyline from the scoring is the running backs in this that are on the Steelers, not the Lions. Jalen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell both heading into Monday Night football as top 10 running backs in fantasy. And Aaron Rodgers was pumping up how great his backfield is.

[Jay Croucher]

Oh, we have a quote from Aaron Rodgers. What a surprise.

[Connor Rogers]

Well, they got a good skill set, both of them. I mean, they're both really good runners. They're elusive, but I got to give those guys a lot of credit. Kenny's been unbelievable in the passing game. Just unbelievable. And he's so damn smart. I mean, I was telling him I wish I played with him for 10 years, just because the kind of player that he is, like, he just loved playing with that guy. And Jalen is as sweet as they come, and he's such a decisive runner as well.

[Jay Croucher]

You always want to hear that about a running back as sweet as they.

[Matthew Berry]

Come and a good runner. That was the opening quote. Running backs.

[Jay Croucher]

But honestly, the way he was talking about Kenneth Gainwell, you understand why he's been on the field so much. Connor, you and I talked about this.

[Matthew Berry]

This summer, summer in camp. They were so excited about him, how.

[Jay Croucher]

Much Kenneth Gainwell was going to play. And, you know, you guys are. Everyone that's drafting Caleb Johnson in the middle rounds is going to be annoyed at how, like, we haven't heard Caleb Johnson.

[Matthew Berry]

Who's that?

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, exactly.

[Matthew Berry]

Jonathan Smith gets more carries. Literally.

[Jay Croucher]

It's unbelievable. Why did I have to be so smart on Kenneth Gainwell? This. That Dynasty League guy? I was playing Daniel Goff, my friend. My dear friend Daniel Dap, who I miss. Still my friend. But I miss working with him.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, nothing happened.

[Connor Rogers]

Did he pass yesterday?

[Matthew Berry]

My dear friend that I missed.

[Jay Croucher]

I miss him. So. No, I mean, obviously. No, I mean, you know, whatever. We grabbed lunch, like, six weeks ago. No, I mean.

[Connor Rogers]

And he was alive.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, he's still alive. Yes. We were texting this morning, so. No, my dear friend Daniel Dopp, who I miss working with. Probably a better way to put it with. But anyway, yeah, I mean, he had Kenneth Gainwell, I'm like, oh, that catch was just ridiculous. But since week 11, Kenneth Gainwell, listen, was on the. I wish I wasn't right about this one. He was on the love list because again, he was playing against me. But since Week 11, he's the eighth best running back in fantasy. He's now had 16 or more fantasy points in five of his past six games, with a 21% target share over that stretch. You hear Aaron Rodgers talk about just how smart he is, how much he likes him in the passing game. Again, like, if you. The way Aaron Rodgers is, like, you don't get on the field unless Aaron trusts you. And the fact that he trusts him and he trusts him in the passing game means none of this is a fluke and you can continue using Gainwell next week. And if you play in week 18 as well. Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

Rogers has had such a strange season. He's had games like the Chargers game on Sunday, football. He looked atrocious.

[Matthew Berry]

It looked like the end.

[Connor Rogers]

And now, like the past couple of weeks, particularly yesterday, he's flinging at 50 yards down the field in the air. He's taking deep shots. He's, you know, he's always had the accuracy. He's still got the cannon arm. He can't move as much, obviously, so he's not the same guy. But he has had these moments. And the main thing to me about yesterday con, there was like, what the hell's going on with Detroit's run defense? Just a complete catastrophe.

[Matthew Berry]

I mean, they were blown off the ball by the Steelers offensive line.

[Connor Rogers]

All the run fits were comically off. Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

I mean, some of the Jalen Warren runs were like, is anybody near this gap?

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah.

[Jay Croucher]

I mean, Jalen Warren got the same workload as he always does. He just broke the two long runs. So just to point that out, it's not like there's some sort of another thing. I said this on the football night in America pod where we talked about this, which is just a crazy stat. Yesterday, The Steelers had 230 rushing yards. The Lions had 15.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah.

[Jay Croucher]

So now some of that game script depended, obviously, because they were trailing. But you have Jameer Gibbs and Dave Montgomery and you have 15 yards rushing. I get it. You know, the Steelers have a good run defense and the Lions line super banged up. I think they were in their third string center by the end of the game. They're in bad shape. I mean, but still, 15 yards rushing, like, I mean, that's just like. That's not good. Yeah, that's bad.

[Connor Rogers]

Hashtag Analysis mentioned the the idea of malpractice with harbor and not putting Henry back in the real coaching malpractice. Yesterday was just the entire final sequence for the Lions. That final drive. They had no idea what they were doing with the clock. They were rushing to score with a minute left. It's like guys, if you score Pittsburgh get the ball back and they're doing whatever they want. Like you need to run this down and then you get first and goal from the one with 45 seconds left. If you just run the ball four times up the middle, your season is alive and you are going to make the playoffs. You're actively making the choice to end your season. Why are you running a pick play a pass play on first and goal at the one when you have Jimmy gift Just run the ball up the middle four times. Like it's just completely insane the way all of that went down. They didn't seem to know what they were doing the whole time and now their seasons are basically over. Result pretty much, yeah.

[Jay Croucher]

Just. It was awful. That's one of the things we talked about on the football night in America pod which is available on YouTube. I'm a company man, NFL and NBC YouTube channel. But we talked about the fact that they missed Ben Johnson, they miss Aaron Glenn. Obviously they've been beat up on both sides of the ball but like they just got completely outmuscled. Yeah, the Steelers put up like 450 yards of offense in this game. Like the Steelers.

[Matthew Berry]

The Steelers ran for 230 and the Lions ran for what like not even 15. 15.

[Jay Croucher]

That's my point.

[Matthew Berry]

And the yards before contact for Jameer Gibbs. He ran seven times the average. He was hit behind the line of scrimmage. Negative 1 yard yards before contact every run.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, that play at the end was just awful. And by the way like again that dynasty league I have both Goff and Amon Ross St. Brown. So that was like a 12 point swing. You know, not getting the touchdown pass plus the, you know, plus the reception.

[Connor Rogers]

First and goal the one. Do you know how hard it is to stop QB sneak four times in a row. Like it's just not going to happen. Just sneak the ball for a yard. It's very.

[Matthew Berry]

The things that can go wrong on a. Any drop back.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, they, they're at Minnesota next week. I don't think there's any change from you know, all the Detroit guys. Just a bad day at the office. The only last thing I want to say here on this game is a question for you, Connor. You Know how, like, you know, we talk about this, players coming back from injury, like they're, you know, week seven. Oh, he's finally fully healthy. He's finally. He was coming back from that injury or whatever it is and that kind of stuff. Do you think Aaron Rodgers. Because to your point, Jay, he has played really well the last couple weeks. Is. It just. Is he finally got the jets out of his system. Is that. That's what it is. He's finally flushed it. You know, he was in the building for two years and it just sort of seeps in and at some point you just have to kind of get it out of you, maybe.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, that could be it.

[Jay Croucher]

That's what.

[Matthew Berry]

I'm not really buying into the deep playoff run of the Steelers, but there's no denying he's playing a lot better.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, he is playing much. I mean, Flacco is the same deal, right, that he left. Yeah. I mean, it's not a great infrastructure. Team hasn't made the playoffs in 15 years.

[Matthew Berry]

Sam Donald right now.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. Gino, for a little bit, you're just waiting. Brady Cook next year. It's coming.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. Buy the Brady Cook stock now while you can.

[Jay Croucher]

Unbelievable.

[Matthew Berry]

All right, our next game, guys.

[Jay Croucher]

Maybe, you know, you guys are going to, like, win next week and screw yourselves out of Mendoza. Like that's going to happen.

[Matthew Berry]

Buffalo rest, everyone. Week 18. That's the.

[Connor Rogers]

The game.

[Jay Croucher]

That's the game we won't win against.

[Matthew Berry]

A trying New England team.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, it's fair.

[Matthew Berry]

Don't be crazy.

[Jay Croucher]

But, yeah, you guys will win a game before the season's up. Week 18. That makes sense. Yes, you guys. And you guys will blow your chance at a. You know. Anyway. Kyler Murray, come on down.

[Matthew Berry]

So exciting. Jaguars, Broncos. This game actually was exciting. Trevor Lawrence was amazing in this game. Over 31 fantasy points. Parker Washington continues to get it done through the air. RJ Harvey had the big game well, but we got to hear from Trevor on this Jacksonville team surging and playing with a chip on their shoulder.

[Connor Rogers]

You can't just show up and win games in this league. You got to prepare the right way and you got to have that edge and that mindset come Sunday. And I think that's something our team does a really good job of, is playing with that chip on your shoulder and that edge and attacking people and getting after them. And I think that's something that's been huge for us.

[Jay Croucher]

Will this team get respect?

[Connor Rogers]

No, I hope not, honestly. Hope we don't get any. So everybody out there, just keep it Up. It's great. So, yeah, it's a big game and just proud of the guys. It's fun.

[Matthew Berry]

This is the Trevor Lawrence we've been waiting for.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

These last three games look like the guy that was one of the more hyped up number one overall picks in quite some time.

[Jay Croucher]

Most fantasy points by a quarterback against the Broncos this entire year. Kudos to everyone out there that had the guts to start them. You know, you're like, oh, it's one thing to put up six against the jets, but I was on the road at. At Denver and as you see it there as we head into Monday football, he's the number one quarterback in fantasy football. Probably sitting on a lot of people's benches, but hopefully started him as well. Since week five, he's the second best quarterback in fantasy, averaging over 22 points per game. Obviously at the huge game last week as well, but at least there's a floor there. Connor, at least 17 fantasy points in nine of the past 11 here. And he's spreading it around. He's doing this without Travis Hunter, obviously. You know, Brian Thomas Jr. Jacoby Myers seems like he was doubled a lot.

[Matthew Berry]

Fits in that offense great, though.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah. Oh, and they signed to an extension, so he'll be back next year. Be interesting what happens with Parker Washington because. Or do they trade Brian Thomas Jr. Who suddenly doesn't seem like he's a fit in Liam Kona's offense.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. With Travis Hunter coming back, that wouldn't shock me. It's been a weird year for btj.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, I mean, like, whatever. I mean, like Parker Washington, when he gets work and just again, because of. Because of certain on. On BTJ and some on Myers, Parker Washington, just eight here, 28% target share. It's his career high in both receiving yards and fantasy points as well. But I mean, this is. This is legit. And even if your Colts manage to eke out a win, Jay, they play the Jaguars next week.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. There'll be clear underdogs in that game no matter what they do tonight. And so, yeah, the Jags heavy favorites now in the AFC South. I think that. I still think the Bills are probably the best team in the afc, but I think the Jags, the way that they're playing, have as good an argument for second along with probably Houston Patriots thereabouts. There's a lot of teams in the mix, but yeah, we have to enliven our minds to the very real possibility that Jacksonville will be in the Super Bowl.

[Jay Croucher]

I mean. Right.

[Connor Rogers]

Which is truly bizarre.

[Jay Croucher]

We Were joking in the, in the, in the war room yesterday about how because we know we are hosting NBC will have one of the divisional games and we're like, you know, are we going to be broadcasting the Jacksonville game? Like, am I doing my DraftKings 3 play from the pool?

[Matthew Berry]

Right.

[Jay Croucher]

You know, Jay and I will be.

[Matthew Berry]

At the Jags bar with Stephen.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, of course.

[Connor Rogers]

I for one, welcome our Jags Panthers super bowl in Santa Clara in the first week of February. Those things are both going to have home playoff games at this point.

[Matthew Berry]

Casual. Josh, are we trusting Lawrence for the fantasy football championships?

[Jay Croucher]

I don't know how you wouldn't.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, I mean, he did this against Denver.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, I mean, you know, like I said, I bet you I should have looked this up. I didn't look up the start percentage for him, but I bet you a lot of people did bench him. You know, I mean, I benched him in the league because I, I had, you know, I had golf, as we talked about here, consensus.

[Matthew Berry]

He was like hovering around QB 16 or 15.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah. I mean, like just again on the road at Denver, you didn't expect this. And so it's just, he's playing at an unbelievable level. Travis ETN continues to just get, you know, a ton of touches, 20 touches in this game. He's had 15 or more fantasy points in seven of the last eight games as well. So ETN continues to be a locked in RB1 here, guys. So, I mean, I feel like, I don't know that you can trust Brian Thomas Jr. Moving forward. I'm not worried about Myers moving forward and Parker Washington, honestly, playing the slot against Indy next week. We'll talk about that as the week goes on. But yeah, I think this is, I think this is legit. And kudos to. By the way, kudos to producer Steven, a lifelong Jaguars fan. He's the one, a lifelong Jaguars fan who managed to still put this game third in the rundown.

[Connor Rogers]

Oh, yeah. It's bold.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

After Jets Jags somehow cracked the top four last week, Stephen returned to worth this game. Could have gone above Lions, Steelers. Well, it could have stuck.

[Matthew Berry]

This kind of selfless performance from Stephen Ryan Oswald. Congrats, producer Steven, to you and your Jags. It was a long, long wait for a good team. And props to you for not abandoning Cough J. Cough.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, it's a good point. It's going to regret that. Are you. Because you were a Jagsman at one.

[Connor Rogers]

Point and then I watched him for two years. I was done. Trevor Lawrence was terrible the first half of this season, he's been amazing ever since, and he's playing it the best he's ever played in his life. But, no, I'm still a Colts man. I still ride with the Colts in the AFC south, even. It's going to end in pain.

[Jay Croucher]

You know, it's interesting. We've talked for a long time about, like, you know, Vrabel and McVay for coach of the Year, and it's probably going to be Vrabel, I would assume, my favorite. But. But Liam Cohen's got to be right up there.

[Connor Rogers]

I personally think that Coach of the Year will be two names they haven't even mentioned yet. And they play each other on Sunday Night Football this week, which is Ben Johnson and Kyle Shanahan.

[Matthew Berry]

Kyle Johnson.

[Connor Rogers]

Kyle Shanahan controls his fate for the one seed in the nfc. If Carl Shanahan gets the one seed, I'm sorry, that's it. Like, he gets Coach of the Year. That would be just so insane for them to get the one seed in that conference. But I think that Ben Johnson with the Bears, I think Ben Johnson has the most juice of everyone. Like, just this Bears season is so magical. If they beat the Niners on Sunday Night Football to clinch the NFC north after what, they were like four games last year, then I think that. But there's like five great candidates. I think Mike McDonald has been phenomenal.

[Matthew Berry]

Which is why I would not bet the favorite right now. Variables plus 100. I don't think that's a good number.

[Jay Croucher]

No, I agree with you. But I mean, Variable's done a great job. Lian Cohn has done a great job. Even though that's like, again, Steichen's not going to win because of the way the season's ending. But Steichen's done a great job. Dave Canalis.

[Matthew Berry]

Canales is, I think, sixth on the board.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

I mean, seventh, maybe.

[Jay Croucher]

Keep pounding. Dave Canales, keep pounding.

[Connor Rogers]

To me, the two best, you bet Kyle Shanahan's plus 650. The nine is a plus 375 to get the one seed. If he wins. If he gets the one seed, he's going to win that award, I think. And then I think Ben Johnson at +450 is also value. I think you ride with those two horses, and then one of those horses shall ignite with a win on Saturday night.

[Matthew Berry]

4. What's the better bet? Betting on the Niners to win out or betting Kyle Shanahan coach the year? It's probably Shanahan.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

The niners are like, around plus 375 to win out.

[Matthew Berry]

Oh, wow.

[Connor Rogers]

There you go.

[Jay Croucher]

There you go as well. I don't know that there's a lot of takeaways. A tough day at the office for Bo Nix, you know, I mean, like, got you some points, but he did not play well from an NFL perspective as well. But it was nice to see RJ Harvey, you know, who's had 20 or more fantasy points, scores touchdowns three of the last four games. That run was unbelievable. To score a touchdown there as well. No one's talking about Sean Payton for coach of the year, and I don't think he's got a shot. But, like, I mean, the Broncos have, you know, they're. What are they, seven to two in one score game?

[Connor Rogers]

Seven to one issue with Sean Payton. His coach of the year case is, like, team's going to get the one seed despite his quarterback. Whereas, like, he's supposed to be this offensive guru quarterback whisperer. They're doing it with a little bit with smoke and mirrors. They're a good team, but they're not.

[Jay Croucher]

I agree.

[Connor Rogers]

They. They're not a one seed.

[Matthew Berry]

Chargers, Cowboys, Chargers keep winning somehow, really no offensive line. They just find a way to get it done. Justin Herbert over 30 fantasy points. George Pickens with a good day for Dallas. But the Chargers pass catchers back on the board here. Matthew Quentin, Johnson Lad McConkey. I thought a Marian Hampton looked awesome yesterday.

[Jay Croucher]

He looked like he looked like a ride or die, which is, you know, awesome. And we liked him as well. He's in all three games since returning, he's had at least 15 touches. And in this season when he's getting at least 15 touches, he's averaging 16 fantasy points per game. The nice thing here is I thought he looked awesome. He's getting the red zone rushes as well. Kamani Vidal gets banged up here, so ride or die a little bit too late. But, you know, when he's been out there, he's been productive. Certainly a better fantasy pick than Ashton Genty, despite what happened yesterday. We'll get to him in a second. But yeah, I mean, like, it was nice to see QJ have the big game here. And McConkey's always McConkey. I just. But I don't feel great about any of these pass catches because I feel like you saw Gadson did nothing. Keenan Allen got the, you know, had the one play. But, like, it could easily be Keenan Allen and Gadsden next week.

[Matthew Berry]

That's the problem. There's so many guys. I feel like he's out there, right?

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah. And Trey Harris looks good. So I feel like McConkey, you continue to start. He had 21% target share in this one. But to me, the takeaway is that just Herbert with the rushing that they were able to do this. Obviously the schedule helped as well. I mean, they play Houston next week.

[Connor Rogers]

That's the. Yeah. Herbert was only pressured, I believe, on 39% of his dropbacks, which, you know, normally isn't amazing. But for him that's like a phenomenal outcome because he's been pressured above 50% a lot of the time. So Justin over there's time. He's got good receivers. He will find them. But the issue is is the schedule, the two weeks to conclude Houston and Denver. Although like Denver's defense, this defense, which is, you know, trumped up as one of the best in the league and statistically has been there every time they play a good quarterback, they get torched every time. Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, they all destroyed. Lawrence did whatever he wanted yesterday. They feasted on bad teams and that's how they've accumulated their defensive reputation.

[Matthew Berry]

On the Cowboys side, guys, the one glaring note, Javonte Williams, who was on the injury report for a lot of the week, it was a season low in snap rate. Matthew. They couldn't get anything going in the run game.

[Jay Croucher]

57% of the snaps had only 11 touches in this game. It's his first game with fewer than 15 touches since week eight. And that's the problem. Javante Williams is like not really explosive, isn't used in the passing game all that much. So he needs volume, which he needs volume and you know, short yardage stuff to be able to produce fantasy points. And he didn't get either in this game. And so you have to wonder, was the was it game script? Was it just he wasn't feeling well? He wasn't 100%. Either way, he's running back 44 as we head into Monday football. Here's the good news though, if you survive until next week, they get Washington next week. Hopefully Williams is better because whoever's the starting running back for the for the Cowboys is next week will feast against my beloved commanders.

[Connor Rogers]

Yep. Dak Prescott also, who's had a very good year overall. He is the king of destroying teams in Week 17, 18 and meaningless games. He's born to put up five touchdowns against the Commanders.

[Jay Croucher]

Oh yeah, no question. It was nice to see George Pickens get up the schneid here for the one in this game.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, we got A question here from El Segundo. Barry, are we fading our guy eights next week with the Cowboys eliminated?

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, of course. My Budd Eights. I call him Eights CD Lamb. Only his friends, only his friends call him that. El Segundo maybe. Maybe El Segundo knows him. We don't know as well.

[Connor Rogers]

Take the under.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, I, I can't imagine fading CD Lamb against Washington next week. But this was, this was tough in a fantasy semifinal where you really needed him. And again, Pickens was the guy that had the big game here.

[Connor Rogers]

Here's the thing too is like even though, yeah, the Cowboys are limited, they have nothing to play for. It's week 17. They still going to be out there and they're still going to be playing a full complement of snaps. It's an island game on Christmas. Like it's a, it's an occasion. They may. That stuff more happens in week 18 when you have absolutely nothing to play for. But you know, like the Bengals are eliminated. They still playing their guys full compliments and snaps and everything. So city Lamb, he'll be fine next week.

[Jay Croucher]

I agree.

[Matthew Berry]

All right, guys. In the battle for the NFC south, the Panthers beat the Bucks. Don't worry, these two teams play again. The Panthers have a one game lead, but they're not favored to win the division over the Bucs. Despite that and not a ton of fantasy production in this game. Good game for T. Mac, who now leads the offensive rookie of the year race. Ahead of Jay Tyler Schuck, by the way, just surged up the board. Bryce Young was pretty good in this game. The Bucs offense has fallen apart.

[Jay Croucher]

It's brutal. Baker Mayfield's now been under 15 fantasy points in four of the last five games. Since week 12, he's quarterback 27 on a points per game basis. Since week 11, he's only had one game with multiple touchdown passes. We thought the, you know, getting a full complement of guys back here, right. Mike Evans, Godwin, Jaylen McMillan along with Emeka Abuka, that maybe something would unlock for Baker Mayfield. This was a big game like Baker to your point. At one point, Baker Mayfield was legitimately in the MVP conversation.

[Connor Rogers]

He would have won after five weeks.

[Jay Croucher]

That's right. And he just. This is a tough game. I love Baker Mayfield is one of my favorite players in the NFL. He's the friend of the show, so I don't want to kill him too much. But this was a, this was a tough day at the office for the entire Bucs offense. I don't get it. You know they didn't really get Mike Evans involved. They tried to do a. He got a quick cheap touchdown. They gave him two targets when they got in close as well. And that was ultimately winded up being the Sean Tucker touchdown that he ran in. Yeah. They were determined to give anyone but Bucky Irving the ball at the goal line. It just from a fantasy. Perspective. Perspective. This is brutal. Now they play at Miami next week, which is good, but I feel like Bucky Irving and I guess Mike Evans next week, but I can't like abandon ship. If anyone survives into next week on this Buccaneers offense, it's. It's a mess.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. The other issue too is just that the wide receiver breakdown who actually out there, it's just. It's all over the place. Like Jalen McMillan plays 34 out of the 64 snaps. Booker is at 36, Godwin 41, Evans 42. Like there's no hierarchy. They're just all kind of out there two thirds of the time.

[Matthew Berry]

New England.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, exactly. But yeah, which is a complete departure from what it was last week where Chris Godwin was playing like every single snap. So I don't know. This is the thing is that bad results kind of manifest change more so next week? Could be. I've got no idea what it's going.

[Jay Croucher]

To be like next week. I mean, they didn't throw very much. They didn't have the ball very much. I mean but the. When they were throwing, they did look to Evans a decent amount of. Yeah, like I said, he got three end zone targets. He was basically held on the other two. Like the first one he. He nailed and then they gave him two chances. Couldn't. Couldn't come down with it. And so they just ran it in with Tucker.

[Connor Rogers]

But yeah, also for people who are just about why the Bucks are still favored for the NFC south, it's because of the weird tiebreakers in the division where basically unless Carolina beats Seattle and Tampa lose to Quinn Ewers, then that week 18 is a winner takes all game. And that's in Tampa. And Tampa will be like six point favorites against Carolina. So unlikely things would need to happen for that for Carolina to clinch before then. And if it is a winner takes all game, as bad as the Bucs have been, they'll still be favorites at home.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, SEC man asking the important questions. Does this show end next week or do we just go into full on Magnolia Chat?

[Jay Croucher]

It's a good question.

[Matthew Berry]

It is a good question and we have an answer.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah. Do we?

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, we don't stop.

[Jay Croucher]

Oh, okay, good. No, I don't know.

[Matthew Berry]

We're not done next week. We're still on the air.

[Connor Rogers]

I told you how to free. Genuine.

[Jay Croucher]

We are absolutely. No, we're absolutely January. So just schedule wise. That's a good question. So we were. We're here tomorrow. We are off. We're off Christmas Eve and Christmas. The 24th and 25th. We will be dark. And then we are back on Friday, the 26th.

[Matthew Berry]

Right.

[Jay Croucher]

And then. Yeah, the next week, I think we're.

[Connor Rogers]

Off New Year's Day.

[Matthew Berry]

We're on every day besides New Year's Day.

[Jay Croucher]

Actual New Year's Day. Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

And then after that, we're not. We're eventually. And we'll have more details for you. We're not five days a week anymore throughout January. But we're still on usually, at least.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, during the playoffs, we'll be.

[Matthew Berry]

We'll, you know, three days.

[Jay Croucher]

We'll recap the games and we'll preview the games in the playoffs. So we'll be on two, three times a week during the fantasy playoffs. And then, of course, super bowl week, we'll be out in San Francisco on Radio Row doing our show so Jake can get more pictures that he can crop Connor and I out of with the superstars of the NFL.

[Connor Rogers]

Absolutely.

[Matthew Berry]

Every single year.

[Connor Rogers]

I hope Jonathan Taylor's out there.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

I can crop you guys out one more time.

[Jay Croucher]

Philip Rivers.

[Connor Rogers]

Phil Rivers won't be. Yeah.

[Jay Croucher]

Tyler Warren. All right, let's talk about this. Let's.

[Matthew Berry]

The old Bengals game.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, this Bengals. This Bengals Dolphins game.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. Joe Burrow.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

Still good.

[Matthew Berry]

Still good. Chase Brown. What a time for Chase Brown to show up, right, Matthew?

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah. 1,000% right for your ninth place matchup. Damn right. I'm not tenth.

[Connor Rogers]

Yep.

[Matthew Berry]

Chase Brown and his 33 fantasy points.

[Jay Croucher]

Chase Brown has actually been really good, honestly, over the second half of the week. Since week eight, he's been the fifth best running back in fantasy football. At least 18 fantasy points in six of eight games. Week seven, that was the last time he had a game with fewer than 15 fantasy points. And the other positive is that this was not happening under Jake Browning and the Jake Browning administration. But with Joe Burrow back, he's averaging over five receptions a game. They were finally involving him in the passing game, Jay. That's right.

[Connor Rogers]

I was just thinking Jake Browning, was that administration before or after Jimmy Carter?

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, it was after Jimmy Carter, but before the Joe Flacco administration, which we loved as well. So just, you know, locked in RB1 the rest of the way. Super and they play Arizona at home next week. So that should be a good game for all of your Bengals. Jamar Chase did Jamar Chase things here as well Miami, what did you think of yours and watching this game?

[Matthew Berry]

He was actually better in the first quarter than I expected. And then when it turned into oh, we need to score 40 points today to match Joe Burrow, it started to fall apart.

[Connor Rogers]

I will say like he was, he wasn't great obviously, but it was like, I think it was 8.7 yards per attempt. Didn't take a sack. Like he still got the ball to Jello Wall.

[Jay Croucher]

He wasn't as much of a train wreck as people thought.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, like half Waller made some plays for him.

[Connor Rogers]

If you are desperate in a super flex league and your quarterbacks are in your Daniel Jones or whatever and you need a quarterback for next week like Quinn Yu is against the Bucks, like I'd rather have that than whoever the Chiefs are starting at quarterback against the Broncos.

[Jay Croucher]

That, that one is fair. Super annoying. Devon HN Unbelievable game, right? 15 for 81. He, he, he catches. But it could have been so much of a bigger game. And I feel like this is, we say this every week, right? He caught a ball that, you know, he ran for like 40 yards with it and then there was a holding penalty and then at the end like they just gave like a, a BS like rushing touchdown to, to, to Jalen Wright, which, you know, I mean like give it, give it. Come on. Why can't Devon Achan have that as well? So Mike McDaniel, very frustrating, but it was nice to see Jalen waddle actually, you know, have a decent game here. 12 points. His most receiving yards in a game since Week 10.

[Matthew Berry]

Let's take a look at the Week 16 injuries we're tracking out of the weekend. Of course. Lamar Jackson leaving Sunday Night Football with a back injury. Jordan Love left early with a concussion. Marcus Mariota left in the third quarter with a hand slash quad injury. Gardner Minshew's knee injury did not look good, guys. As did JJ McCarthy's hand injury where he left it. A lot of quarterback injuries.

[Connor Rogers]

Good lord. Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

Jordan Mason with an ankle. Quinton Judkins with a serious ankle injury that will end his rookie season. Travion Henderson left the game with what they're calling a head injury. Josh Jacobs with the knee. Romeo Dobbs hurt on the onside kicks with a wrist injury.

[Connor Rogers]

Tough play for Romeo Dobbs.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, really tough play. And, and with Jacobs, it too. He tried to gut it out as well. We'll talk about replacements for all these guys, but yeah, you could see Tyler Huntley, Clayton Toon, Josh Johnson for the Commanders.

[Connor Rogers]

Let's go.

[Jay Croucher]

Whoever the Chiefs have at quarterback. It's gonna be interesting next week. We'll be back right after this.

[Connor Rogers]

On our side, the fantasy MVP Matthew Barry. I think it's Jackson Smith in Jigua.

[Jay Croucher]

It's gotta be. Yeah, it's gotta be. Look in terms. I mean he's the wide receiver too on the seat season, but more importantly about where he drafted. He drafted like around the fifth round. He's been so consistent as well.

[Connor Rogers]

Joe, in the Premier League I've got a pretty good idea who the MVP is in fantasy, but would you say his name for us? Erling Haaland. Of course. He's just an absolute goal scorer machine. I mean you want him in your team. He just racks up points galore. Breaks records galore.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

17 goals already this season heading into the festive fixtures. Like you said, four match weeks for every team in the space of 16 days can really kind of make or break your season.

[Matthew Berry]

The Premier League is in a huge stretch this holiday season with the biggest names in the game playing 40 matches in 16 days including the JSN of soccer, Erling Haaland. Tune into NBC and Peacock to catch all the action and set your fantasy football football lineups accordingly. For a chance to win a jersey off our water wall. Send us your fantasy pl lineups.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah. Look at that.

[Matthew Berry]

Ffh, that's a beauty. And follow our resident soccer expert Joe Prince Wright for the latest Premier League news and updates. As you see the Newcastle jersey on.

[Jay Croucher]

The wall that is autographed by everyone on Newcastle.

[Connor Rogers]

Yep.

[Jay Croucher]

And Jay Croucher.

[Connor Rogers]

I saw him before.

[Matthew Berry]

Nice. Way to kill the value.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, exactly.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. I stuck my name right next to our Bruno Guimar. As shy in there. Sorry, Croucher.

[Matthew Berry]

In that Weekend Warriors Week 16 as you see the running back leaders at the top. Yes, that is Ashton J.

[Jay Croucher]

The worst at number six. This is so awful. Of all the. Of all the frustrating things that happened in fantasy this past weekend. Ashton Genty who like has been terrible all year from a fantasy perspective suddenly having his best game of the year against Houston, like first off teams probably that had him that used a first round pick. They might not have been in the playoffs if they were. They probably benched him. And then you're like now, now Genti decides to go off against Houston. What are you talking about? Career high and scrimmage yards had 188. The second best fantasy game of the season. Remember he had those that three touchdown game in week four as well. But it's the most rushing yards and fantasy points by running back into Houston. To me, the biggest thing here wasn't about that, which is all frustrating, but it's just like, oh yeah, that's the guy that got drafted. And so assuming they get a competent offense around him next year, Jay, he should be awesome again.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, it was a reminder. I bet a lot on Travis Hunter to win the Heisman last year. So I was cheering against Ashton Genty every week, which was an absolutely miserable experience. Just his low center of gravity. Connor just unable to get tackled, particularly right at the goal line. Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

Shedding tackle left and right.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah. In a week in which not a lot of people showed up, Connor. Chris Olave did against the Jets.

[Matthew Berry]

It was perfect. Caught a touchdown both from Tyler Schuck and Taysom Hill. Love to see that. Just for fun. Chris Olave, by the way, here. Matthew. I think ja' Mar Chase has more targets than him this year. He's been a very quiet fantasy stud this year.

[Jay Croucher]

He's been unbelievable. And especially he has a nice connection with Tyler Schuck. Seven starts for Schuck so far this season. 28% target share, averaging almost 18 fantasy points per game. With Schuck onto a center top five among wide receivers in targets and receptions this season, as you mentioned, like Ja' Marr Chase has in both targets and.

[Matthew Berry]

Receptions, I should say James Cook, another 100 plus rushing yard day for him. Jay, over the past two seasons, only Jameer Gibbs has more touchdowns than James Cook.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, we talk a lot about Jonathan Taylor, Jimmy Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, all these superstar running backs. James Cook is likely going to lead the NFL in rushing outs this year and he's getting. And the touchdowns have not regressed nearly as much as we thought they would.

[Jay Croucher]

It's insane. He's had, he's had the season that Saquon Barkley had last year. Like he's still not involved in the passing game, but he's breaking off these long runs and he's getting the touchdowns.

[Connor Rogers]

And they run a ton.

[Jay Croucher]

And they run a ton. 14 total touchdowns this season over the last two seasons. He's got 32. Only Jameer Gibbs has more. It's his ninth game this year with 20 more fantasy points. Only Chris McCaffrey has more. James Cook, again, you know, JSN I think is like, is definitely the fantasy MVP, but James Cook is in the conversation because again, this was somebody that a lot of people, myself included, faded because we thought there would be regression of the touchdowns that just hasn't happened.

[Matthew Berry]

Harold Fannin welcome back to weekend warriors. Almost 20 points tight end one for Harold Fannin. Good things have been happening for Fannin since Shador took over Matthew.

[Jay Croucher]

You know what, by the way I'm coming around on Shadour like I mean like no I just. I I think he's a as we've talked about he's not as good as some of his most ardent supporters but he's definitely not as bad as his haters think he is.

[Matthew Berry]

Better than a fifth round quarterback. The problem is if the Browns picking top three right now might still take one. I don't know what the future is for Shadur Sanders, but it's good to see him playing some competent football since week 12.

[Jay Croucher]

No one has a bigger target share than him 31% and he's the fourth best tight end in fantasy since Shedeur took over in week 12 averaging over 15 fantasy points per game. He got a rushing touchdown in this one. Like I mean they or you know.

[Matthew Berry]

John Ou Smith style.

[Jay Croucher]

John Smith. Like they used him in the backfield I should say. And so yeah just a great game for Fannin. It feels like whatever they do at quarterback next year the Browns have found something at the tight end position Sunday Scaries.

[Matthew Berry]

These guys might have sunk you in the fantasy playoffs starting with Josh Allen. Jay who? Man, ugly game in Cleveland. A lot of ugly games played in Cleveland but you expect Josh Allen to overcome it and he really didn't need to.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah he had to leave with the foot issue. Came back. Hopefully it's nothing. Alan does have these weird kind of games for on occasion he'll have the Superman games but he also does have these in his bag too. And James Cook was able to do what they needed on the ground. They're able to get a bit conservative in the second half playing with the lead against an offense they felt they could control. Josh Allen will be fine. Yes Week against against the Eagles 02.

[Matthew Berry]

Fantasy points Matthew for Jackson Dart I.

[Connor Rogers]

Don'T know why they're playing him.

[Matthew Berry]

I think 00 reason to be out there.

[Jay Croucher]

It was. They blitzed. They blitzed the hell out of him. 47% of his drop backs they brought him. He got sacked five times. He had negative fantasy points actually as a passer as well. Just you know he just. They had no answer. They had no. I mean Brian Flores just completely out coached Mike Kafka and they just. They had no answer. I was very frustrated. I had Tyrone Tracy in a league I thought he was going to go off. You know he got a decent amount of work but just a bad game for the entire Giants offense. They're at Las Vegas next week so hope hope for a better game next week.

[Matthew Berry]

A not so warm welcome back for Drake London. Jay doesn't even get the six points.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah it was a tough saying Kyle Pitt still got plenty of work. I mean the Falcons are ending the season fairly respectably but Drake London, there's some uncertainty coming off the injury. Thought he'd be much much better than this but I think still fire him up next week.

[Jay Croucher]

It was a weird one but at least the usage was there. 83% route preservation had a 23% target share just Cousins just missed on a couple of missed badly on a couple of ones and so hopefully next week at home home to the Rams. But I still think his talent and usage you have to continue with Drake.

[Matthew Berry]

London and Arizona both bad games for Marvin Harrison Jr. That doesn't surprise you? The Trey McBride performance does because he's been so good this year.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, it's weird you know that Higgins, it was just a weird game. Jacoby Brissette, it was the first game that he's been bad since he's became the starter as well. I think it's just whatever it was just a low scoring bad day at the office for both those guys. I'm throwing it out. Harrison at least was out there for 64% of the routes in Kansas City.

[Matthew Berry]

J It's feels like it's just shutting it down right now. Nothing doing for Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce especially.

[Connor Rogers]

Just completely submarine by the quarterback situation. You can't start those guys next week against Denver.

[Matthew Berry]

No you cannot. We're taking one more Netflix feels about that.

[Jay Croucher]

You know they paid a lot of money for that game Christmas game. That's going to be tough but yeah, Kelsey's now had under two fan points in two of the last three games.

[Matthew Berry]

Last call our Monday Night Football preview Niners Colts right after this. DraftKings Sportsbook is an official sports betting partner of the NFL and new customers can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets. If your bet wins down the app, use promo code ffhh when you sign up. DraftKings sportsbook the Crown is yours.

[Jay Croucher]

Might be yours.

[Matthew Berry]

It's time for last here's the most bet player props as Jay has alluded to a lot of these most likely a part of parlays. That's why brock Purdy passing yards 200 plus tops the board but Jay, I know you have some a Better trick up your sleeve.

[Connor Rogers]

I do. Christian McCaffrey over 62 and a half rushing yards. Not sure why this number is so low given that the Niners their team total is 26 and a half. Right? You tell me the Niners are going to get to 27 points and likely have game script 5 1/2 point favorites here. Think CMC should be over 62 1/2.

[Matthew Berry]

What about you, Matthew?

[Jay Croucher]

I also think he should be over 39 and a half receiving yards. You and I both thought partially because I need to come back. I need 27 fantasy points from Christian McCaffrey. I need CMC to have the game of his life. Which is which, by the way. And because there were so many bad Sunday scares with Josh Allen's of the world. This is why by the way, CMC and Jonathan Taylor drink free tonight today at the happy hour bar because we need you guys. We need monster games from Chris McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor. So please, you guys drink for free, go out there, bring us a bunch of fantasy points, give Monday night miracles to everyone. But Again, I think McCaffrey over 39.5 receiving yards. Same logic you have Jay as well. It's a number he has been. He has hit in every game but two this year.

[Matthew Berry]

We're all in the Niners offense going. Juwan Jennings over four and a half receptions. No Ricky Piersall yet. George Kittle will be involved but should be Juwan Jennings as the number one option in the pass game. Get to five catches. No sauce Gardner in this game. The Colts secondary without him.

[Jay Croucher]

I like Juwan Jennings a lot tonight, especially Brock Purdy. Not, not going to worry about weather. We don't think the Colts are going to be able to get pressure when Brock Purdy has a clean pocket. He's pretty good especially in a game with no weather concerns as well.

[Matthew Berry]

All right, that's it for us. But we're back tomorrow.

[Jay Croucher]

Oh yeah, we are. We are back tomorrow. Here's some of my top players for tonight. You see, obviously I've got, you know, you're starting the two running backs who drink for free. Purdy's there as well. Can't wait to watch Philip Rivers in prime time. Always fun. We're rooting for him. Yeah. You know what I mean. And you're starting the, you're starting the two tight ends as well. And I agree with you on Jennings. He should be the, the one wide receiver you feel good about here for the Niners.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, I think the Niners are going to cover five and a half I don't think that Phil Rivers is keeping up with Brock Purdy.

[Matthew Berry]

The fun ends.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, I think the fun ends. I think Jonathan Taylor's gonna go wild.

[Jay Croucher]

Will you still be a Colts fan after this? If they lose?

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, I'm still. I'm perennially for the shoe. All right.

[Matthew Berry]

Forever for the shoe.

[Connor Rogers]

All right. Forever. Shroom.

[Jay Croucher]

Fair enough. It's closing time. You don't have to go home, but you can't stay here. For Jay and Connor, I'm Matthew Berry. Go get yourself a Monday night miracle. We'll see you tomorrow. Peace out.