Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry

Episode: Week 16 Takeaways: Derrick Henry, Kenneth Gainwell, Trevor Lawrence + Key QB injuries
Date: December 22, 2025
Hosts: Matthew Berry, Jay Croucher, Connor Rogers (NBC Sports)

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the chaos and drama of fantasy football Week 16, unpacking critical game and player performances that shaped fantasy playoff semifinals. The crew discusses the wild swings from star players, QB injuries, emerging heroes, and coaching controversies. Notably, the episode spotlights big games from Derrick Henry, Kenneth Gainwell, and Trevor Lawrence, while parsing through injuries that will impact fantasy title games. They also forecast next week’s fantasy/start-sit landscape and dish out betting insights.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Week 16’s Fantasy Landscape: Feast or Famine

• Fantasy Playoff Pressure: Widespread frustrations as high-profile players either exploded or completely disappeared, often on fantasy benches.
  • Jay: “It was literally the tale of two halves… every fantasy player either went off, or they just completely sucked.” (02:44)
• Locker Room/Team Vibes: Positive momentum in locker rooms like Jacksonville, Carolina, and New England post-victory, paralleling “green room” energy before the show. (01:00-01:30)
• Coaching/Team Disappointments: Buccaneers and Lions highlighted for underperformance, with Tampa Bay’s offensive/defensive collapse and Detroit’s run-defense debacle.

2. Notable Performances & Player Deep Dives

Stefon Diggs Resurrection

• Breakout Game: 9 catches, 138 yards, 1 TD; 20+ fantasy points for just the second time this season (04:26).
  • Jay: “On benches everywhere. By the way, no one started him.” (04:28)
• Usage Patterns: Volume is key; Diggs needs heavy targets to succeed, lacking consistent involvement all season.
  • Jay: “They just take him off the field a lot. Last night, finally they didn't.” (05:57)
• Patriots’ ‘Democratic’ Offense: Too much distribution, leading to inconsistent fantasy outputs.
  • Connor Rogers: “It's a great argument against democracy because everyone gets a voice in this offense and it’s really annoying.” (05:28)

Derrick Henry: Back to Life, But Benched in Crunch Time

• Big Start, Abrupt Finish: Most rushing yards since Week 1, but disappeared in the 4th quarter.
  • Matthew Berry: “After about 13 minutes left in the fourth quarter, we never saw him again.” (09:51)
• Coaching Critique: Ravens’ decision to bench him late drew ire from the pod and broadcast.
  • Connor: “[It] was like a kind of old school NBA tanking move…” (10:00)
  • Collinsworth (referenced): Called out the play calling—“That’s just got to be Derrick Henry on the field.” (11:11)
  • Jay: “I’m trying to defend something that I think is semi-indefensible.” (11:02)
• Harbaugh’s Future: Speculation that a Ravens-Harbaugh split might be imminent due to team disappointment. (11:46)

Kenneth Gainwell & Jalen Warren: Running Back Revelations

• Ascendant Value: Both finish as top-10 RBs for the week; praised by Aaron Rodgers for intelligence and pass game savvy.
  • Aaron Rodgers (audio quote): “Kenny's been unbelievable in the passing game. Just unbelievable. And he's so damn smart...” (15:48)
  • Jay: “Since Week 11, Kenneth Gainwell... the 8th best running back in fantasy.” (17:09)
• Steelers O-Line Dominance: Lions D blown off the ball; Warren’s explosive runs exposed Detroit’s run-defense flaws. (18:30)
• Coaching Malpractice on Display: Lions’ disastrous end-game clock management and play calling possibly ended their playoff hopes.
  • Connor: “If you just run the ball four times up the middle, your season is alive and you’re going to make the playoffs. You’re actively making the choice to end your season.” (19:23)

Trevor Lawrence: Unlocking Fantasy Ceiling

• Performance Spike: First 300-yard passing game of the year, 31+ fantasy points; spreading it around despite missing Travis Hunter.
  • Trevor Lawrence (audio quote): “You can’t just show up and win games in this league… I think that’s something our team does a really good job of, playing with that chip on your shoulder.” (22:52)
• Trusting Lawrence Next Week?: Overcame tough match-ups; now a must-start for championship week.
  • Jay: “Will this team get respect?” Connor: “No, I hope not, honestly; hope we don’t get any.” (23:10)
  • Matthew Berry: “Since week five, he’s the second best quarterback in fantasy.” (23:28)
• Jaguars’ Playoff Profile: Discussed potential to win the AFC South, and possibility as surprise Super Bowl contender. (24:47)

Miami/Cincinnati: Chase Brown & Dolphins RB Room

• Chase Brown League Winner: Fifth-best RB in fantasy since Week 8; finally being used in the passing game with Joe Burrow back.
  • Jay: “Chase Brown has actually been really good... since week eight, he's been the fifth best running back in fantasy.” (38:38)
• Miami Backfield Headaches: Devon Achane explosive, but vultured at the goal line; frustrating workload splits persist.
  • Jay: “But it could have been so much of a bigger game… every week.” (40:00)

Other Injury & Depth Chart Impact Players

• Quarterback Carnage: Key injuries to Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love, Marcus Mariota, Gardner Minshew, and more discussed as pivotal for next week’s fantasy matchups. (40:40)
• Javonte Williams Slumps: Season-low in snap rate; “needs volume” RB profile highlighted as risky, but matchup-friendly next week versus Washington. (32:02)
• Baker Mayfield and Bucs Fall Flat: Extended slump, odd rotation at WR; team now trailing Panthers in the NFC South after another underwhelming week.

3. Betting/Bets Recap

• Jay’s Hot Streak: Five consecutive Berri's Bets cashed; shared personal parlay hits (13:01).
• Prop Bets Preview for MNF: Love for Christian McCaffrey’s rushing/receiving overs, Juwan Jennings as a sleeper, and expecting a big night from Jonathan Taylor as well. (49:49-50:47)

4. Fantasy MVPs, Waiver Wire, and Sunday Scaries

Fantasy MVP Discussion

• Consensus: Jackson Smith-Njigba (JSN)
  • Connor: “He’s been so consistent as well.” (41:46)
• James Cook’s Breakout: Outproducing expectations and is among league leaders in rushing TDs; only Jameer Gibbs has more over the last two seasons. (45:02-45:22)
• Harold Fannin Emerges: Top-scoring TE since Shadour Sanders took over for the Browns.

Sunday Scaries: Who Sunk You?

• Josh Allen (7.19 fantasy pts): “Ugly game in Cleveland… Allen does have these weird kind of games for on occasion…” (46:47)
• Jackson Dart, Drake London, Marvin Harrison Jr., Travis Kelce: Disappointing outputs from several normally trustworthy stars.
  • Jay: “Just completely submarine by the quarterback situation. You can’t start those guys next week against Denver.” (48:52)

Waiver Wire/Start-Sit Takeaways for Week 17

• Backfields to monitor: Cowboys (vs. Commanders), Chargers (vs. Houston & Denver), Jaguars (stack vs. Indy)
• Plug-ins for injured QBs: “If you are desperate in a superflex league... Quinn Ewers against the Bucs.” (39:47)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Fantasy’s All-or-Nothing Nature
  • Jay Croucher (02:44): “Every fantasy player either went off, just had this monster day, or they just completely sucked.”
• On Patriots’ Offense
  • Connor Rogers (05:28): “It's a great argument against democracy because everyone gets a voice in this offense and it’s really annoying.”
• On Derrick Henry’s Sideline
  • Jay Croucher (11:02): “I’m trying to defend something that I think is semi-indefensible.”
  • Matthew Berry (11:37): "Not even the excuseler can find an excuse of why Henry was out."
• Aaron Rodgers Praises Kenneth Gainwell/Jalen Warren
  • Aaron Rodgers (15:48): "...Kenny's been unbelievable in the passing game. Just unbelievable. And he's so damn smart."
• On Trevor Lawrence’s “No Respect”
  • Trevor Lawrence (22:52 & 23:06): “You can’t just show up and win games in this league... playing with that chip on your shoulder…”
  • Connor Rogers (23:10): “No, I hope not, honestly. Hope we don’t get any. So everybody out there, just keep it up.”
• On Lions’ Clock Management
  • Connor Rogers (19:23): “You're actively making the choice to end your season. Why are you running a pick play... when you have Jameer Gibbs? Just run the ball up the middle four times.”
• Chase Brown League Winner
  • Jay Croucher (38:38): “Since week eight, he's been the fifth best running back in fantasy football.”
• On the Bucs WR Mess
  • Connor Rogers (35:56): “There's no hierarchy. They're just all kind of out there two thirds of the time.”
• On Sunday Scaries
  • Jay Croucher (48:52): “Just completely submarine by the quarterback situation. You can’t start those guys next week against Denver.”

Important Timestamps

• [01:00] – Opening and “green room” team/locker room vibes
• [04:26-06:11] – Patriots/Ravens recap; Stefon Diggs’ night and the “democracy” of the offense
• [09:51-11:40] – Derrick Henry’s great start and contentious sideline
• [13:01] – Jay’s Sunday night football betting streak
• [15:22-18:39] – Steelers-Lions breakdown: Warren/Gainwell, game flow, and Detroit’s run woes
• [22:52-26:11] – Trevor Lawrence and Jaguars, playoff hopes, fantasy reliability
• [38:38-39:08] – Chase Brown’s stat line, role in offense
• [40:40-41:31] – Key injuries rundown
• [46:47-48:57] – Sunday Scaries: Allen, London, Harrison Jr., Kelce
• [49:36-51:53] – MNF betting props & closing thoughts

Episode Mood/Tone

True to the signature “Happy Hour” banter: lively, irreverent, quick-witted, and free-flowing. The hosts blend detailed fantasy analysis with razor-sharp humor, playful self-deprecation about their own teams and bets, and pop-culture/sports references. The pod maintains the comedic, slightly chaotic vibe, packed with both rapid-fire insight and memorable running jokes.

Takeaways for Fantasy Players

• Don’t Overreact to Week 16 One-offs, But Monitor Coaching Usage: Benching stars (Henry, Diggs) may repeat, especially for teams out of playoff contention.
• Ride Hot Hands (Lawrence, Warren, Gainwell, Chase Brown) into finals; beware volatility from “democracy” offenses (Pats, Bucs).
• Monitor Injury News Early: Next week’s QB decisions will have huge ripple effects.
• Consider Matchups in Start/Sit Decisions: The right plug-and-play against bad defenses (e.g. Cowboys RBs vs. Washington) could swing championships.

Closing Thought:
Matthew Berry: “Go get yourself a Monday night miracle. We’ll see you tomorrow. Peace out.” (51:53)