Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry – Week 18 Love/Hate: Jaxson Dart, Chase Brown, George Pickens + Week 18 Player Incentives

Date: January 2, 2026
Host: NBC Sports, Matthew Berry
Co-hosts: Connor Rogers, Jay Croucher

Episode Overview

This episode is dedicated to Week 18 of the NFL season, where unique fantasy scenarios abound due to playoff implications, resting starters, and player incentives. Matthew Berry, Connor Rogers, and Jay Croucher break down key matchups, analyze start/sit decisions, highlight Love/Hate picks, and discuss how player incentives might affect fantasy and betting outcomes. Bursts of witty banter, inside jokes, and the signature "Love/Hate" energy inform listeners readying for their final fantasy football contests or prepping for next season.

Week 18 Chaos: The Setup

• Week 18 Vibe: The team discusses how Week 18 is uniquely unpredictable due to varied motivations: some teams are pushing for playoff seeds, others are tanking or just resting key players.

  • "Some teams actively trying to lose, some teams just trying not to get hurt, and some teams desperately trying to keep their seasons alive or playoff seeding." – Matthew Berry [02:25]

• Random Hero Narratives: Week 18 is famous for unusual fantasy heroes.

  • "Week 18 is...when some of the most beloved but obscure names in fantasy football lore have come from week 18. Who can forget Jets legend Joe McKnight?" – Matthew Berry [03:07]

Quarterback Headlines

Lamar Jackson Injury Update & Playoff Odds

• Lamar Jackson is back: Full week of practice and strong commitment to play Week 18 against Pittsburgh.
  • "Yeah, yeah, 100%. Yeah, man, I'm going to be out there." – Lamar Jackson clip [04:17]
  • "He wasn't even doing that when he was allegedly healthier, you know, a few weeks ago." – Jay Croucher [05:03]
• Ravens’ Super Bowl Path: Discussion of Lamar’s variance, injury history, and the upside with AFC competition wide open.
  • "There's a chance MVP Lamar may walk through that door." – Jay Croucher [07:28]
  • "There's a world where every single playoff game you could make the argument Lamar is the best player out there." – Connor Rogers [08:00]

Notable Quote:

"It would be ironic if this was the year [Lamar] wins the Super Bowl, when he's had the worst year of his career."
– Jay Croucher [05:00]

Love/Hate: Week 18 Quarterbacks

Love:

• Jaxson Dart (Giants vs Cowboys): "My number two quarterback in week 18." – Matthew Berry [12:11].
  • Faces a Dallas D giving up the most fantasy points and rushing TDs to QBs.
• Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars vs Titans): "Top 10 fantasy quarterback for six straight weeks." [13:17]
  • Titans allow multiple passing TDs, should keep game script competitive.
• Caleb Williams (Bears vs Lions): "Bit of a hot stretch... Second highest implied total for the week at 50.5 points." [15:33]

Running Back Focus

Love:

• Chase Brown (Bengals vs Browns):
  • Just 53 yards from 1,000; everything expected from a mid-late season pick.
  • "He was so brutal those first seven weeks...but since Joe Burrow returned...he's the third best running back in fantasy." [17:44]
• RJ Harvey (Broncos vs Chargers): Stepping in for injured JK Dobbins, averaging 17 touches and heavy red zone usage. [19:11]

Hate:

• Amarian Hampton (Chargers vs Broncos):
  • Not practicing; likely inactive. "No team allows fewer fantasy points to opposing RBs than the Denver Broncos." [20:37]

Wide Receiver & Tight End Spotlights

Love:

• George Pickens (Steelers vs Giants): "Giants secondary...you can throw deep. They've given up at least 14 fantasy points to a WR in every game this year except for one." [22:58]
• Michael Wilson (Cardinals): Needs 93 yards for 1,000; huge target share and garbage time potential if Cardinals trail. [23:39-24:30]
• Colston Loveland (Bears/TE): Stepping up in absence of top WRs, faces vulnerable Detroit defense. [26:49]

Hate:

• Michael Pittman Jr. (Colts vs Texans): "Since week 10, Michael Pittman has one game with more than 32 receiving yards." – Matthew Berry [27:46]
  • Rookie QB Riley Leonard's struggles hinder outlook. [28:39]

Notable Quotes & Wit

• "If they do have to play the Bills, who I think are the best team in the AFC, that game would be in Baltimore." – Jay Croucher [05:00]
• "George Pickens, who is their deep threat...he's my wide receiver 6 this week." – Matthew Berry [22:58]
• On sleeper value: "Michael Wilson...in games where [Marvin Harrison Jr.] hasn't played, he's averaging a 33% target share. He becomes the greatest wide receiver of all time." – Matthew Berry [24:30]
• "Philip Rivers at 44...is not, there are not 64 quarterbacks in the NFL better than Philip Rivers right now." – Matthew Berry [31:19]

Player Incentives & Week 18 Props (41:20–46:00)

• RB milestones: Chase Brown (53 yds to 1,000), Kenneth Walker (70), Jalen Warren (108), Trayvon Henderson (142), Ashton Genty (112).
• RB cash bonus: Tony Pollard (Titans) – 66 rushing yards for a $250,000 incentive.
  • "I feel like the books are very dialed into the incentives..." – Matthew Berry [36:34]
  • "You potentially steal a free yard...there's not much of an edge backing these now." – Jay Croucher [36:34–37:05]
• WR/TE milestones:
  • Justin Jefferson – 53 yards for 1,000 [38:11]
  • CeeDee Lamb – 48 yards to pass Dez Bryant, 5th all-time for Dallas [42:44]
  • Trey McBride – 32 yards for Cardinals TE single-season yardage record [44:21]

"I think he will get more than 32 receiving yards this week and continue a record setting year for friend of the show, Trey McBride."
– Matthew Berry [45:43]

Power Rankings & Community Shoutouts (48:11+)

• Aloha bricks tops the Week 18 Regular Power Rankings, followed by Happy Hour loyalists.
• Awards and shoutouts for “Regular of the Year” at the upcoming “Peacockys”.

Listener Mailbag: Rapid-Fire Fantasy Q&A (49:23+)

• Start Drake London? – Still startable; WR17 per Berry.
• Best keepers? – Nico Collins and Chase Brown over Judkins and Garrett Wilson.
• 2026 risers? – RJ Harvey (contingent on offseason moves), Breece Hall (potentially on a new team), Luther Burden III.

Last Call—Pickup Lines: Best Bets (53:17+)

Jay:

• Derrick Henry over 92.5 rushing yards vs. Steelers.
  • "The Steelers have the 25th best rush defense by EPA. I think that Henry will run all over them." [53:24]

Connor:

• Bills to cover -6.5 vs Jets.
  • "It's the closing of Highmark Stadium... Have you watched the Jets for the last month?" [53:33]

Berry:

• Co-signs Derrick Henry: "If I got a chance between betting on the Bills backups or Derrick Henry, give me Derrick Henry." [53:50]

Memorable Moments

• Fantasy Consolation Glory: Berry revels in his seventh-place league finish, defending the significance of small victories:
  • "It was very consequential...It has allowed me to have something to sort of hang my hat on...I look forward to the 30 for 30 about it later on." – Matthew Berry [40:04]
• Inside jokes about waiver wire moves, “legal carve-outs” for pickup etiquette, and playing Malik Willis while out of playoff contention.

Conclusion

Week 18 brings “beautiful chaos” for fantasy footballers and gamblers, as Berry, Rogers, and Croucher lay out strategy for the season’s craziest slate. Start active, motivated players gunning for milestones and watch out for the many “trap” options among teams with little to play for.

Listen to the full episode for more in-depth banter, fan shoutouts, and the latest news that could alter your Week 18—and your championship fate.

Timestamps:

• [04:17] Lamar Jackson to play Week 18 (“Yeah, yeah, 100%…”)
• [12:11] Jaxson Dart as QB2
• [17:44] Chase Brown’s late season heroics
• [22:58] George Pickens as WR6
• [24:30] Michael Wilson’s late season emergence
• [26:49] Colston Loveland’s Top 5 TE case
• [27:46] Michael Pittman fade due to rookie QB
• [36:34–37:05] Player incentives and prop betting strategy
• [38:11] Justin Jefferson incentive talk
• [42:44] CeeDee Lamb chases franchise records
• [44:21] Trey McBride's historic season
• [53:24] Jay/Connor/Matthew's best bets for the week

Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry — helping you close out your season with smart starts, strategic fades, and a sense of humor about it all.