Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry

Episode: Week 18 Waiver Wire: Dylan Sampson, Colston Loveland + Did Matthew Stafford lose MVP on MNF?

Date: December 30, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode of Fantasy Football Happy Hour features Matthew Berry joined by Connor Rogers and Jay Croucher for an energetic post-holidays Week 18 show. The trio delivers actionable waiver wire advice for "sicko" managers still playing, recaps the previous night's game, breaks down the latest MVP race fallout, and dishes out early fantasy takes for 2026. Despite some birthday banter and league chatter, the episode is packed with deep waiver pickups, playoff implications, and perspectives on player development, always in Berry & co.'s lively, playful tone.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Waiver Wire Targets for Week 18

Quarterbacks

• Tyler Shuck (Saints)
  • 79% available. Five straight games with 17+ fantasy points; two consecutive 300+ passing yard outings. QB8 since Week 13.
  • Praised for his consistency, dual-threat ability, quick development in Kellen Moore's scheme, and strong rapport with Chris Olave.
  • Quote (Matthew Berry, 14:11):

    “They just seem to be able to get it done... Tyler Shuck will be the inspiration of a number of fantasy team names next year. Shuck you, Connor. Let Schucken go and many, many others.”

• Malik Willis (Packers)

  • 98% available. Averaging 23+ points in 3 starts, 31+ before injury in Week 17.

  • Fantasy upside due to rushing, arm strength, and development under Matt LaFleur; speculation he becomes a highly coveted free agent.

  • Quote (Connor Rogers, 22:07):

    “When you bet on traits with quarterbacks, you have to understand that like... situation matters a lot. We saw where situation failed him and then we've now seen where it's helped him. I'm a big believer in Malik Willis—not as a stopgap or a fill-in starter, but as an NFL starting quarterback.”

  • Other mentions: Bryce Young (Panthers), Cam Ward (Jaguars), Tyler Huntley/Snoopley (Ravens depending on Lamar Jackson status).

Running Backs

• Dylan Sampson (Browns)
  • 71% available. Faces Bengals, who gave up 17+ points to him in Week 1; handled 14 touches and 13% target share last week.
  • Quote (Matthew Berry, 27:12):

    “He’s 15 touches in a great matchup. He’d be my number one running back if I had to pick up someone and was playing in week 18.”

• Audric Estimé (Saints)
  • 89% available. 79% snap rate, dominating backfield touches; Saints offense improving with Shuck.
  • Became a meme on Connor’s other podcast due to cult following—now producing in fantasy.
• Malik Davis (Cowboys)
  • Deep cut if Juvante Williams sits. Played 61% after Williams' injury, faces the very weak Giants run defense.
  • Quote (Matthew Berry, 31:24):

    “...would not be shocked...if they let Javonte Williams go or somebody signs him to a bigger deal...and they go into the season with Mike Davis as the number one running back next year.”

• Other names: Emmanuel Wilson (Packers, if Jacobs sits), Devin Singletary (Texans).

Wide Receivers

• Luther Burden (Bears)
  • 77% available. Averaging 17.7 PPG with >20% target share; dynamic and electrifying. Injury to monitor but considered a WR2 if healthy.
  • Quote (Jay Croucher, 35:16):

    “Just having him on my team in championship week...phenomenally exciting. Watching him every single play and seeing the diversity of his skillset...he’s a locked-in wide receiver two.”

• Parker Washington (Jaguars)
  • 63% available. Double-digit targets, 100+ yards in each of last two games; strong rapport with Trevor Lawrence.
• Jalen McMillan (Bucs)
  • 98% available. 20% target share in Week 17, back from injury, and offense throwing often in meaningful game vs. Panthers.
• Others Receiving Votes: Isaac Tesla (Lions), Jalen Coker (Panthers), Shamari DK/Elik Ayo-Manor (Titans)—all deeper league stashes.

Tight Ends

• Colston Loveland (Bears)
  • 51% available. 20+ points in both 7+ target games—usage up, big moments as Bears eye postseason.
• Jake Tonges (Niners)
  • 36% available. 15.7 PPG in past 4 games without George Kittle, 27% target share last week.
  • Quote (Matthew Berry, 44:06):

    “Jake Tongas has been a big part of what the Niners have been doing recently...they’re playing Seattle, and for all the brilliance of the Seahawks defense, they’re actually susceptible to tight ends.”

Streaming Defenses

• Top options:
  • Jacksonville vs. Tennessee
  • Green Bay vs. Minnesota
  • Bengals vs. Browns; Ravens vs. Steelers

2. Fantasy Playoff/League Recaps & 2026 Early Draft Chatter

• The hosts recap their own leagues:

  • Rotopath is recognized for a championship sweep.
  • Matthew cements himself as “champion of the non-playoff teams”, humorously making a seventh-place finish all about himself.
    • Quote (Matthew Berry, 06:56):

      "I am truly a master at that. And so, Ryan Oswald 3790, I appreciate you noticing that you are correct. You are absolutely correct. My seventh place victory once again will ring out among the halls of fandom..."

• Early 2026 Draft Discussions:

  • Bijan Robinson is currently Berry’s way-too-early pick for 1.01 in 2026 (“Birthday Bijan” after helping Berry win a title on his birthday).
    • Some Yahoo mocks had Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Jameer Gibbs going ahead.
    • A top 5 of Bijan, Puka, Chase, JSN, or Gibbs is plausible.
    • Quote (Berry, 09:46):

      “For me right now, I say it's Bijan Robinson.”

  • Luther Burden: Debating WR draft tiers, Burden likely a top-20 WR, “hype guy” in August.
  • Rash discussion of deep wideout/TE pools for next year. Wide receiver depth highlighted.

3. Playoff Picture and Rest-of-Season Strategy

• AFC/NFC Playoff Details
  • Playoff seeding and motivation are dissected—critical for Week 18 risk management.
  • Noteworthy speculation: teams like the Eagles, Chargers, Rams could rest starters.
  • Quote (Connor, 12:09):

    “...looks like there's been reporting that the Eagles may rest their starters against Washington, because the Bears are favored and likely to beat Detroit. If the Bears beat Detroit, they will clinch the two seed...”

4. Player Development & Talent Evaluation

• Tyler Shuck and Malik Willis Development
  • Discussion of how draft context, landing spots and system (LaFleur for Willis, Kellen Moore for Shuck) shape QB success.
  • Re-evaluating draft logic/pundit takes, especially over Shakur Sanders vs. Shuck.
  • Long-term potential; Saints as possible division favorites for 2026 with Shuck.

5. Matthew Stafford’s MVP Fallout (with Monday Night Recap)

• Stafford’s Struggles Against Falcons
  • Rams upset by depleted Atlanta; Stafford looks rattled, MVP stock drops.
  • Defensive credit given to Raheem Morris.
• Drake May Now MVP Favorite
  • May is now heavily favored (-400) for MVP due to superior stats and team record, particularly after Stafford’s critical loss and turnovers.
  • Quote (Jay Croucher, 50:14):

    “...Drake May is number one in the entire league in all of those things [ratings] and Stafford isn't two in almost any of them... statistical gap... now massive... May is minus 400 to win MVP.”

6. Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Making Everything About Himself:

  “...one thing that I am the master at... is taking any subject and somehow making it about me. I am truly a master at that.” (Matthew Berry, 06:56)

• On Waiver Wire “Sickos”:

  "If you're a real sicko, you're playing for something in Week 18..." (Matthew Berry, 02:18)

• On the “Birthday Miracle”

  “My birthday wish for yesterday was for somehow Bijan Robinson and Matthew Stafford to outscore Puka Nakua by 31 points... and what do you know, thanks to that 90 yard run Bijan did. Birthday Bijan giving me a present and all fantasy managers on my birthday.” (Matthew Berry, 10:03)

• On Audric Estimé as a Cult Figure:

  “You don't get to choose your heroes. Sometimes they choose you. So soldier Guesstimate, so be it.” (Connor Rogers, 29:57)

7. Rapid Fire: Early Bets & Line Alert (53:00–54:08)

• Jay Croucher: Bears -2.5 vs Lions (“I think the Bears blow them out and secure the 2 seed.”)
• Connor Rogers: Bills -7 vs Jets (“The Jets are playing third stringers already... they’ll lose by at least a touchdown.”)
• Matthew Berry: Over 44.5 Browns/Bengals (“44.5 is too low for a very good offense and two bad defenses at the moment.”)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Waiver Wire Quarterbacks: 13:30–18:54
• Malik Willis Analysis: 19:00–25:33
• Waiver Wire Running Backs: 26:52–34:11
• Receivers, Luther Burden & Draft Talk: 34:11–39:31
• Waiver Wire Tight Ends: 43:31–45:06
• Monday Night Football Recap (Stafford, Bijan): 48:04–52:03
• MVP Race Discussion: 50:00–52:03
• Early Bets & Line Alert: 52:29–54:08

Memorable Moments & Tone

• Berry’s birthday provides running jokes (“Birthday Bijan,” “drink for free,” etc.).
• Show is sprinkled with self-deprecating humor (Berry’s “master” skill at self-promotion, league “consolation” victories).
• Insightful but playful analysis throughout, with regularly recurring in-jokes ("points McNuggies," "Peacockey nominee," inside callbacks to audience engagement).

For Your Week 18 Lineups

• If you’re still managing a lineup, look for upside among Tyler Shuck, Malik Willis, Dylan Sampson, Audric Estimé, Luther Burden, Parker Washington, and Colston Loveland.
• Monitor injuries, motivation and resting starters due to playoff status.
• Consider deeper league stashes and streamers as recommended.
• Don’t bet on Week 18 unless you’re a true fantasy “sicko” (and follow the best lines for motivation-based matchups).

“This is your time to brag. This is your time to shine.”
— Matthew Berry (07:52)