← Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry
Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry
Week 18 Waiver Wire: Dylan Sampson, Colston Loveland + Did Matthew Stafford lose MVP on MNF?
00:51:50
December 30: Matthew (@MatthewBerryTMR), Jay (@croucherJD), and Connor (@ConnorJRogers) congratulate the 2025 Champion in the League of Assholes and ponder who would be the #1 overall pick in drafts next season before diving into Waiver Wire targets for the final week of the regular season. Tyler Shough, Dylan Sampson, Audric Estime, Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland are apart of the players highlighted. The trio also look back on Matthew Stafford’s dud in the Rams loss to the Falcons and debate his chances to win MVP prior to revealing why they’ve circled Lions-Bears, Jets-Bills, and Browns-Bengals on their betting card this weekend.
Loading summary
Transcript186 lines
- [00:00]
A
You know, the best B2B marketing often gets wasted on the wrong people. So listen, when you want to reach the right professionals, use LinkedIn ads. LinkedIn has grown to a network of over 1 billion professionals. You can target your buyers by job title, by industry, by company, by role, seniority, skills, company revenue. You can stop wasting budget on the wrong audience. So spend $250 on your first campaign on LinkedIn ads and get a free $250 credit for the next one. Just go to LinkedIn.com FFHH. That's LinkedIn.com FFHH. Terms and conditions apply.
- [00:38]
B
Happy birthday to Matthew Berry, who asked for Bang bang.
- [00:41]
C
Let's go.
- [00:42]
A
Bang bang, let's go.
- [00:44]
B
He finally, finally can drink for free.
- [00:48]
A
Yes.
- [00:49]
B
Before the show, Jay said, well, let's see how many have left, which is a really nice comment to somebody on their way.
- [00:54]
C
Yeah, there's probably gonna be 10 or 15 of these bad boys left. Some guys.
- [00:57]
A
Outrageous. Oh, look at this. Kevin. Kevin.
- [01:01]
C
TV star.
- [01:01]
B
Beloved Kevin Omaz is the number one regular.
- [01:05]
A
Everyone thinks he's Brian Daboll. He's not. You're not supposed to say your wish.
- [01:09]
B
No, you can't. It won't come true.
- [01:13]
A
Well done. There we go.
- [01:15]
B
Happy birthday, Barry. My ankle socks gift should arrive soon.
- [01:19]
A
That's right. We got to keep the ankles out there for America. Fantasy Football Happy hour with Matthew Berry.
- [01:31]
B
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Football Happy Hour. Connor Rogers, Jay Croucher, and just another year older out there, Matthew Berry. Matthew, how are we feeling? The bones ache a little bit more today?
- [01:41]
A
No, weirdly, they ate just about the same amount. I have just literally the same amount of ache. So it's been good. But yeah, no, I'm, I'm in an undisclosed bunker here in Florida somewhere. Thank you very much to NBC for allowing me to spend a couple of days after my birthday with my family in the warm confines of the state of Florida. There you go, Jay.
- [02:05]
C
The real story is Kevin's continued airtime.
- [02:08]
B
He's really honestly rising star of the fourth season of fantasy football. If that's a Peacocky I'm voting for.
- [02:15]
C
I'm not sure how I feel about it, but it is happening. It's happening in front of our very eyes.
- [02:18]
B
Yes, maybe we'll get some waiver wire takes from him at something at some point today because that's why you're here. If you're a real sicko, you're playing for something in week 18. We're still going to cover waiver wire with you. We're going to recap the game plenty to do. MVP race Jay. It's amazing how a lot could change in 24 hours.
- [02:34]
C
I'm dressed in black for the funeral. For Matthew F. Davids MVP chances might.
- [02:38]
B
Be very much over. Yes, Matthew, I just.
- [02:41]
A
I have a question. I just have a question. Is Kevin. In terms of on air appearances is Kevin the new Big show, the new. The new Penn State Blake? If I may. I just feel like Kevin has made a lot of appearances. Big show always found a way to work his way onto camera. That's the difference.
- [03:00]
B
We asked Kevin to do things on the show. Big show pushed for airtime. So there's a little bit of a difference.
- [03:08]
C
Yeah.
- [03:10]
A
Yes.
- [03:10]
B
And both are fine. Everybody has their own avenues to stardom but I would definitely say label them as different characters. Penn State Blake. I don't know what bucket to put him in but I will give Penn State Blake some love. He's the first person that was ever hyping up Parker Washington for very, very obvious reasons. Ben Johnson asked Aloha Bricks Barry visiting you on the Big Island? No, doesn't seem like it Matthew.
- [03:33]
A
No, I'm stateside. I am stateside. Like I said I am in Florida so. But you know, listen Aloha Bricks if the invitations there. I love Hawaii, man. Maui and Kauai especially are beautiful islands. But I'm a big Hawaii fan so anytime. It's just. It's just a long flight with kids from you know, from the east coast.
- [03:53]
B
Alright Jay, I hate to do this but it needs to be brought up because we can't talk about the league of Assholes all year without the official results. You gave it a real valiant effort.
- [04:02]
C
Yeah.
- [04:02]
B
Did Mumfield actually appear in your lineup?
- [04:04]
C
I got rid of Mumfield.
- [04:05]
B
I got rid of Mufield. Didn't start.
- [04:07]
C
Yeah, it was Michael Mayer.
- [04:08]
B
In the end it's the year of Rotopat. Not just in the Guillotine league again but in the league of Assholes. Rotopat who absolutely deserves to drink for free today because he had the clean sweep on the fantasy football happy hour in both Guillotine in our main league he just an ace. What can you say about Rotopat? So shout out to Rotopat J Sorry for the runner up yeah the season just ran out of gas Ran out.
- [04:34]
C
Of horse I'm the Detroit Lions so how many players left lost the equivalents of Brian Branch, Kirby, Joseph etc. Etc. I knew it was over for me when yeah I'm considering starting like Kanata Mumfield game in a way and I'm like maybe we go with Theo Johnson really relied on Michael Mayer. Brock Bowers going down. Tucker Craft going down. It wouldn't have mattered. Rotopad had the better team who deserved to win. Congratulations Rotopad.
- [04:56]
B
Matthew, any message for your. Your small step back for a major comeback next year?
- [05:02]
A
Yeah, just, you know, look, we have something to build on here. Much like Kyle Shanahan winning the final six games of his rookie year as a head coach. We had a stumble at the beginning of the year. We had some injuries, you know, we didn't have guys in the right places. We made some changes at coordinator but we finished the season strong. Seven straight wins. We end up defeating Connor by almost 100 points. Wow. In the seventh place game.
- [05:26]
B
High stakes game.
- [05:28]
A
So something really in the seventh place game. And so we finished seventh. We, we, you know of all the non playoff teams, we are the best. And so you know we are the, we are the Roto Pat, if you will of the, the non playoff teams. And so you know, I'm now champion of two of the last three years. 66% of the time. I'd have been your champion two of the last three years. Yes, I am your champion. And so you know, overall we feel like. We feel pretty good and something to build on for 2026.
- [05:59]
B
Aquarob said unranked regular here. I won the ship. Thank you for all the advice. Ended 12:2 and my steal of the draft was Olave in the ninth round.
- [06:09]
C
What a close from Chris Olave. A lot of guys who yeah, really came good late and turned it on. I'm just looking at my team that I ended up starting in this week. This is why the fantasy league should finish in week 16.
- [06:19]
B
Frankly, I think we're getting closer to that with how bad it was this year.
- [06:22]
C
Like Kyle Williams, Michael Mayer, Jake Tonjas who actually gave me a fighting chance. But yeah, there was a lot of, a lot of injuries. Pat had the superior team in any case. But yeah, it gets a little. Things start now to get wonkier in week 17 as opposed to previously. I think it was more the final.
- [06:37]
B
Well, it becomes very clear in the final two weeks what needs to be done for the draft order. So if you have a star on a player that tanks. I know it's, you know, taboo to almost say that like Brock Bowers of the world or whoever it may be, you know, it gets trickier and trickier. Ryan Oswald said only Barry can make himself a champion. Not even making the playoffs. It is a special talent you have. Matthew.
- [06:57]
A
You know what I have to tell you something. Ryan Oswald is meaning this as an insult. I take it as a compliment. I've said this many times and many times before. There's very little in this world that I do well. I don't have a lot of talents. But one thing that I am the master at, one thing that I believe I am better at than anyone in the world, is taking any subject and somehow making it about me. I am truly a master at that. And so, Ryan Oswald 3790, I appreciate you noticing that you are correct. You are absolutely correct. My seventh place victory once again will ring out among the halls of fandom there. But I do want to, I will say this, I do want to hear from the regulars. You know, I appreciate the non ranked regular. If you want a championship or even if you want a seventh place game, which are almost as important, most people don't know that they did. We want to hear from you throughout the show, please. This is your time to brag. This is your time to shine.
- [07:53]
B
One fun quick question before we break down the playoff picture because that's what's going to be really important this week, whether you're playing daily, whether you're still playing for something. Scott McLaury said. Who do the hosts believe will be the overall, the first Overall pick in 2026? Are we unified on Bijan?
- [08:09]
C
It's big John Rob.
- [08:11]
A
I mean, listen, I, so I put out my top 50 overall. My top, my way, way too early. Top 50 rankings for 2026. It's on rotorworld.com NBCSports.com right now. I'm a company man, so go check them out and you can see. And I have Bijan Robinson birthday Bijan, by the way, who brought me home, we'll talk about that game. But brought me to a championship last night as he did on many, many fantasy managers. So I have Bijan at number one. But you know, and I haven't seen anyone else put out rankings yet, you know, so that's one of those things is it's like, you know, people like, oh, that rankings are similar. Well, a lot of people tend to follow other people's rankings. And so as far as I can tell, I have the first set of rankings for 2026 out there. But I will say I did see a mock draft yesterday. I literally just saw a mock draft, a first round mock draft on Yahoo. And they had Puka number one. Yeah, they had Puka one. And then I believe they had, I think JSN went two. And then they had Gibbs And Bijan. Bijan didn't go until 4, so I could see. I'm sorry. No, I think Case went second. Case went second. So it's like, I remember it was two wide receivers. It's an Instagram thing I scrolled through quickly. But the point here is that I know that Puka no at number one overall. And so I could see an argument for Puka, for Chase, for JSN or Jameer Gibbs or B. Sean Robinson. I think one of those five guys is the potential number one pick overall number here next year. But for me right now, I say it's Bijan Robinson.
- [09:47]
C
Yeah, I like that you christened Bijan birthday Bijan when it was your birthday.
- [09:52]
B
That's so confused.
- [09:52]
C
I was like, bijan Robinson was born on January 30, 2002 bodies one month from now, apparently your birthday in the seventh place playoff.
- [10:03]
A
Yeah, well, but no, no, no. But yesterday, yesterday on this very show, I said what I needed. I'm in the finals of a Guillotine league. And because CD Lamb and Ashton Genty just killed me there, I needed. And I put this out as my Monday night miracle tweet. Yesterday I said I somehow needed my birthday miracle. My birthday wish for yesterday was for somehow Bijan Robinson and Matthew Stafford to outscore puka nakua by 31 points. A massive amount that needed to be outscored because Puka, of course, is always, you know, like 120 guaranteed. And what do you know, thanks to that 90 yard run Bijan did. Birthday Bijan giving me a present and all fantasy managers on my birthday. Bijan Robinson delivering championships. So that is my birthday present to everyone else. Is. Is. Is Bijan Robinson's performance. I'm running that football.
- [10:53]
B
Very nice. Happy birthday, Bijan Robinson, one month from now. All right, let's take a look at the AFC playoff picture and then we'll break down the NFC as well. Obviously, these are all very important to know as we'll be throughout the show referencing who has something to play for, who might not care about seating, who might be sitting. As you look at Denver, who obviously Jay will be playing for that number one seed because they have to hold on against New England.
- [11:17]
C
And they're effectively getting a bye through to the bye because the charges are resting. Justin Rabbit will presumably rest other players as well. And so that line, which was probably going to be Denver minus three, is now Denver minus two. 12 and a half. Wow. The Chargers. So the Chargers and the Bills, I don't think they care too much about.
- [11:34]
B
Being six or Seven, of course, Sunday Night Football will be the Ravens and the Steelers, which is going to be absolute cinema. That is for the division and of course, as you see right here, clearly for a playoff spot. But like I said, we'll sprinkle in thoughts throughout the show on this entire playoff picture. This is the nfc. You have Seattle and the Niners. Everything of course will be on the line. But you have the Bears who have clinched the NFC north as we've mentioned, as have the Eagles, who have clinched the NFC East. Although seating in this one, Jay, can matter a lot because of the certain matchups, even if you're on the back end of the bracket.
- [12:09]
C
Yep. So the packers are locked into the seven. They cannot move the Rams again. Once again, yeah, the Rams can move around between the five and the six. But it looks like there's been reporting that the Eagles may rest their starters against Washington because the Bears are favored and likely to beat Detroit. If the Bears beat Detroit, they will clinch the two seed and then we have the one seed at stake between Seattle and San Francisco. The funniest thing here though is that because of random tiebreaks, I think most people know this by now. But if the Falcons beat the Saints, then the Panthers clinch the NFC south even if they lose the Tampa Bay.
- [12:40]
A
Right?
- [12:40]
B
Right. And is Tampa currently favored in that game? I would assume at home they are.
- [12:44]
C
Three point favorites in that game, but they're unlikely to make the playoffs because the Falcons are two and a half point favorites over the sixth.
- [12:49]
B
Wow, that's a crazy trickle effect there in the nfc. Alright with that, let's get to Wavered Wire and talk about the quarterbacks right at the top here. As we look at Tyler Schuck is our number one name to know. These are the quarterbacks since week 14. So over the last four weeks in points per game, no surprise. Brock Purdy and Trevor Lawrence have been on an absolute heater. Drake May, who's in line potentially to win the MVP third. But Tyler Schuck is maybe the surprise name for many outside of Malik Willis in this spot. 8th 19.6 fantasy points. You have to hear from Tyler Schuck on just proving himself and maybe for the future of this team as well. Trying to constantly prove myself right as far as my own self belief and hold myself to a high standard and the ultimate goal is to win and come together as a team.
- [13:39]
A
And I feel like we've been able.
- [13:40]
B
To do that and how do we keep replicating it? So for me, you know that's, that's my that's my constant goal. Everything else that comes with it is part of it.
- [13:48]
A
And, you know, I love playing with these guys. You know, I feel like we could play a whole other season right now and, you know, we got a really.
- [13:54]
B
Good opponent that we got to finish out. Tyler Shuck, 79% available. Matthew model of consistency in fantasy for Schuck. Five straight games with 17 plus points. As we showed since week 13, he's QB8. So this is somebody that you've been able to stream and rely on if necessary.
- [14:11]
A
Yeah, I mean, they just seem to be able to get it done, you know. Credit to Kellen Moore, credit to Tyler Schuck. We've talked about this. I think Tyler Schuck will be the inspiration of a number of fantasy team names next year. Shuck you, Connor. Let Schucken go and many, many others. But back to back games now with over 300 yards passing, he gives you some with his legs. Right. Generally speaking as well, you're not scared of them despite what happened last night. You're not scared of the matchup on Atlanta against Atlanta, who now has to play on a short week as well. And Jay, Tyler Schuck, from everything I can see, I think he's the betting favorite to be offensive rookie of the year.
- [14:52]
C
Yeah. So Ted Roll McMillan has since overtaken shock, but it is those two neck and neck. I suspect Teterom McMillan they should say.
- [14:59]
A
I think he should be. How about that? I think he should be offensive rookie of the year.
- [15:03]
C
Yeah. I mean, certainly you can make that case. I think there's a lot to be said for quarterback value.
- [15:07]
B
Like birthday boy Tyler Schuck.
- [15:09]
C
Birthday boy Tyler Shock. Yeah. Like nine games of solid quarterback play is potentially more valuable than, you know, 17 games of being the 16th best receiver in football. That would be the case for Shock. I think Ted Rollin McMillan is still going to win because voters value the full season. But there's no doubting kind of the Shock is watching with the eye test. He's making next level throws, next level plays. His ability to create outside of structure, his willingness to push the ball down the field. He looks like the quarterback of the future.
- [15:37]
B
He really does. The Saints have to be thrilled finding your potential franchise quarterback in the second round. He fits what Kellen Moore wants to do. He can play in structure and timing like you said, Jay. And I think the most important thing from a fantasy perspective, but it's also very important to the Saints, Matthew, is how effectively he gets the ball to Chris Olave at all three levels of the field, but really the deep ball as well, which we know Olave is great with. There's been a noticeable upgrade since Shuck started under center this season.
- [16:03]
A
Yeah, Tyler Schuck understands the assignment like, you know, what is a young quarterback. Look for somebody that can catch the ball. And so Shock has a little bit of, you know, pardon the pun, but Shock does have a little bit of shock. It. A lot of he's down there somewhere and he will, in fact, throw it. You know, you would think the loss of Rashid Shahid would have hurt Tyler Schuck's fantasy value, but that's not been the case. Whether it's Juwan Johnson, whether it's out of the backfield, like different guys, like, hey, let's throw to Mason Tipton. Okay, fine. Like, you know, I mean, like, there's not a lot of talent in New Orleans outside, outside of Chris Olave and of course, fan favorite Juwan Johnson. But Tyler Schuck is man to get it done. Again, fantasy points with his arm and his leg. He, as you showed there with the next gen stats he'll throw at all three levels. Kellen Moore has done an unbelievable job, I think, with this offense, with Schuck's development specifically. And again, not scared about the matchup at Atlanta, so. Because they'll. They will. They'll shuck it around.
- [17:01]
C
Yep. Before we move on, Connor, who would you rather have as your franchise quarterback, Tyler Schuck or Cam Ward?
- [17:06]
B
Still, Cam, you just have to be careful. And Cam has been really good for a couple weeks now. I think he's thrown eight touchdowns in his last four games. And I mean, his situation compared to Shucks. I know we didn't have big expectations for the Saints, but they still have a star receiver, a head coach that's probably a lot better than anyone gives him credit for. Their defense is competitive, putting him in better spots. Kelvin Banks has been great on their offensive line, but the fact that the combo is fair says a lot about what Shuck has done right now. That's like. What's amazing is that you have the combo, Cam Ward, Jackson dart, Tyler Schuck, and you're like, man, for a class that wasn't loved by the NFL, might have a couple starting quarterbacks out of it.
- [17:44]
C
Saints might be the favorites to win that division next year, honestly, because they've got the best defense in the division and, you know, arguably they have the best quarterback in that division depending on Mayfield bouncing back health wise.
- [17:56]
A
Jay Croucher. I would say this, if somehow the season got extended four More games. I think the Saints would win the division this year.
- [18:02]
C
Yeah.
- [18:02]
A
Yeah. I mean, like, I mean, honestly, the.
- [18:03]
B
Way they've been playing.
- [18:04]
A
Yeah, yeah. The way they're playing and the way the Panthers and Buccaneers, you know, keep trending downward. The other thing that I will say, the last thing, and then we move on to our next quarterback here. But again, I am not somebody. I'm not throwing a stone in a glass house because if somebody makes a bunch of predictions every single day, somebody went on the Tonight show and said he was worried about James Cook this year. I mean, again, we've all made bad predictions. But I will say it is funny in retrospect to go back and look at some of the draft pundits who were beside themselves when Tyler Schuck was taken ahead of Chedur Sanders. They could not believe it, you know, and now Tyler Schuck has a legitimate shot. Maybe he won't, Jay, but he has a legitimate shot at winning offensive Rookie of the Year. And people were beside themselves that how dare the Saints take Tyler Schuck ahead of Shadir Sanders.
- [18:54]
B
Overreactions with Shadur Sanders. Unbelievable.
- [18:57]
C
Yeah. If he doesn't win, he'll finish second in offensive rookie. So great season for Tyler Shuck says.
- [19:01]
B
Everything in the small sample size. Another guy, small sample size, but give it a couple months. He's about to be one of the richest free agents in all of football. And that's malik Willis. He's 98% available right now. We have said we think he's going to be a starting quarterback in the NFL next year. So he'll get a nice contract from somebody to do that. But what you care about right now is you look at week 17 before he got hurt over 31 fantasy points, Jay, and this wasn't just one game. You look at the three starts he's made over the last two seasons for the Packers. He's had over 23 fantasy points, especially with the rushing element.
- [19:34]
C
Yeah. So he is. His game obviously translates incredibly well to fantasy. You said, Connie. I said there's a reasonable chance He's a top 10 fantasy quarterback next year because of the rushing value that he adds. How much do you think that he is a product of Matt LaFleur Matt LaFleur system? Because Willis, whenever he plays Jordan, Love, whatever, they all like hyper efficient EPA gods in terms of the efficiency they put up. How much do you think it's lafleur and how much you think it's Willis?
- [20:00]
B
I think it's giving him.
- [20:01]
A
Before you answer that, Connor.
- [20:02]
B
Yeah.
- [20:03]
A
Before you answer that, I want to add more to Jay's question because I think that's a really important question because the development of Malik Willis has been something that's fascinating to me as well, because I remember him drafted out of Liberty. People were like, I'm not sure this guy is an NFL quarterback. We get the skill set, but is this guy somebody that can translate to the next level? And when he played for Tennessee, he looked lost. I mean, he just looked like, okay, this is, you know, small school quarterback, has no business in the NFL, goes to Green Bay and you know, to your point, is now going to be a very rich man, has kind of reclaimated his career. And so as we talk about sort of the transformation of Brock Purdy, the transformation of Josh Allen, I think Malik Willis quietly is on that same sort of path of life. So I'd love for you to talk, I know Jay asked you specifically about LaFleur's system, but I would love for you to just talk about, like how you scouted him as a, as a quarterback out of Liberty, at a small school, Liberty. And then, you know, now to being the starting quarterback of the packers in week 18.
- [21:04]
B
He was my 33rd overall player in that draft and he went a lot later than that. So for me, and that's because when I put a quarterback outside the first round, but right at the top there, it's your tools, right? You're betting on tools and sometimes it takes a while or you're disappointed. Like you look at Will Levis, he's been that guy before. Other times it's Malik Willis, where if you're reacting in the first year or two, you're doing the process wrong because it's all about development. Malik Willis, really fast rocket arm, not the biggest guy. But in terms of NFL processing and playing in a drop back structure, he's going to need time. And when you go to lafleur, I think to answer your question, Jay Lefleur has given Malik Willis a floor as a passer, but the running has always given him this ceiling and this element where it's like, okay, nothing's there. Now I can take off and make somebody miss. Not just run, but make somebody miss. But the thing with Malik Willis that I absolutely love is he could throw the ball down the field. Like he's got a strong arm, he's got that snappy motion where he can get the ball out quickly. So this is somebody that I really valued in a draft that the NFL did not love. The quarterbacks in that draft. And I Get it? It hasn't worked out for Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, guys like that, but top 35 player for me, you bet on traits with quarterbacks and when you bet on traits with quarterbacks, you have to understand that like its situation matters a lot. We saw where situation failed him and then we've now seen where it's helped him. It's going to be fascinating to see the next landing spot and he'll be selective. But I'm a big believer in Malik Willis not as a stopgap or a fill in starter, but as an NFL starting quarterback.
- [22:32]
C
Yeah, I remember when he was in Tennessee, it just felt like when he did get an opportunity that they were just so conservative with him and scared.
- [22:39]
B
To let him throw.
- [22:40]
C
Yeah, okay, we're going to run the ball in the first two downs. We have to throw on third down. The worst thing you could do. And then it was like there was this one Sunday night football game, I think it's the Chiefs where it was very clear that, you know, it's kind of like how d' Ameco rides and the Texans do it a little bit where it's like we're just going to land on that defense and we will make throws only when we have to. Whereas Lafleur is like, no, you're a real quarterback. You're going to make all the throws, at least a lot of the throws that Jordan Love makes and have a lot of the options that Love has in this offense. To your point, some of the down the field throws, some of the accuracy on the deep balls, particularly as the Bears that touchdown down the left sideline like he is making next level throws. The Packers, I don't think the packers are punted in two weeks. This is a. It's been a very efficient on the rails offense even with Malik Willis.
- [23:23]
B
This one from Mick genuine Malik Willis to Arizona, definitely one of the teams that I think would be interested in him. Arizona, before any cuts, has almost $40 million in cap space next year. So they have the money to go do it. They're going to need a starter. We're assuming the Kyler Murray era is over in Arizona. We'll see if there's a new regime which would matter a lot as well. But I don't think it's the craziest take and if that happened, we would be really excited about Malik Willis in fantasy because they have some pieces on the offensive line. They have some pieces at pass catcher and multiple pieces at pass catcher. And the most important thing is Matthew, he would actually Play which has been the most important thing at the end of this season for sure.
- [24:00]
A
And the only reason why we don't have him above Tyler Shuck as a waiver target for this year for leagues playing in week 18 is you see the schedule right there. We prefer shuck at Atlanta vs. Malik Willis going on the road at Minnesota. Others receiving votes. We know Bryce Young's going to play the whole game at Tampa Bay in that pass on defense. Panthers need this win to get into the playoffs. Unless of course Atlanta can take care of business. Cam Ward at Jacksonville, no reason why he wouldn't play. And right now we'll see how it progresses over the end of the week. But we expect Lamar Jackson not to play Sunday night and Snoopley to once again get to start get the start against the Steelers on Sunday Night Football. The company man as the Ravens and Steelers play for the NFC North. Win or go home. That is what's happening there. The last thing I'll say on Malik Willis here just to wrap up this conversation, Connor, when you talk about, you know, a tools guy that is clearly a developmental project, there's a lot of tools, fast with a big arm but obviously need some seasoning and that's what he got in Green Bay where he didn't get in Tennessee. Boy oh boy would I love to see Anthony Richardson go spend a year with Matt LaFleur sitting behind Jordan Love, you know what I mean? You know, when you think about think about Trey Lance, think about Anthony Richardson, some of these other guys that again similar to Malik Willis, really toolsy, undeveloped players that just need right structure and system. I mean, you know, I think the Colts have screwed up Richardson six ways till Sunday and needs a fresh start there. But like still believe obviously in that kid's tools and Trey Lance, I think the jury's still out there as well.
- [25:34]
B
Yeah, I agree. I think that would be a great fit for a guy that just really needs to sit and kind of maybe watch in the right system for a little bit now. So the deeper league targets. Yeah, I mean you saw the list there. No Justin Herbert and Philip Rivers this week as well. Jay.
- [25:48]
C
Yeah, Riley let it even though he can run around a little bit in theory, going up against the Texans defense in a game the Texans want to win, you can probably do better elsewhere. Tyler, Trey Lance as well. Going up against the Broncos defense, not particularly appealing. Basically the same thing with Tyler Huntley is an interesting one because if he does play then we saw the rushing value. We see his potential value as a streamer. But The Ravens in that one are three and a half point favorites. So the market on the road in Pittsburgh at Matthew's favorite stadium in the NFL, Akrishaw Stadium. So I think that there is some chance still that Lamar Jackson gives it a go, clearly. So that is just one to monitor.
- [26:26]
B
Feels like if Lamar was ruled out, that's at least down to two and a half. Right.
- [26:30]
C
I think the Steelers would be slight favorite.
- [26:32]
B
Okay, so this line is assuming he's playing at the moment.
- [26:35]
C
I think so.
- [26:36]
B
But he's got to do everything to play.
- [26:37]
C
Yeah.
- [26:38]
B
This is what it's all for.
- [26:40]
C
It's just like all the reporting always around Lamar. The report is he's got a back bruise two weeks ago. Like that doesn't do him any favors in terms of his reputation coming out. So, yeah, I don't know what's going to happen there, but there is a material chance. Lamar plays clearly.
- [26:52]
B
Let's get to running backs here. Dylan Sampson is our top guy, 71% available. And this is really, you have to go to the matchup here in this spot specifically because it's the Bengals and why Sampson didn't have a great week last week. Matthew, he played the Bengals in week one where there was also no Quinchon Judkins and he was quite effective in that role.
- [27:12]
A
Yeah, had over 17 points in that week one match of 20 touches over 90 yards from scrimmage. And I think the encouraging thing here beyond just the matchup is while it wasn't a productive game, the usage was there. His first game back last week with the Browns, he led the backfield of Cleveland with 14 touches. He had a 13% target share. And so you know there'll be some other guys here. You see some Raheem Sanders mixed in as well. But for me, Dylan Sampson is the lead running back in a great matchup. Bengals give up 166 yards from scrimmage to opposing backfields. Almost 30 fantasy points per game. It's gonna be a lot different sledding for Dylan Sampson this week against the Bengals than last week against the Steelers. So again, I think he's 15 touches in a great matchup. He'd be my number one running back if I had to pick up someone and was playing in week 18.
- [28:00]
B
Audra guestimate 89% available. Jay what matters here, a 79% snap rate in week 17 handled 15 of the 17 team running back touches. If you're worried about the Taysom Hill jets experiment, don't be.
- [28:13]
C
Evan Hull as well, not really intruding too Much so, yeah. Audrey Guesstimate clearly the running back that you want and looks good. Yeah, he looked good. He looked explosive. He had the breakaway touchdown run. He was breaking tackles, missing tackles. We see over the last two games his usage soaring in that game against Tennessee Falcons run defense is not particularly imposing and seems crazy to say, but you kind of want shares of this Saints offense with how well Shock is playing and his ability to push the ball down the field. Just the space that that creates in the run game.
- [28:42]
B
Yeah. Matthew, it seems like this is now Estimate's backfield to finish out the season as the Saints have been one of the teams. They've gone into evaluation mode down the stretch here, but unlike most teams, it feels like it's worked out in their favor across the board.
- [28:55]
A
Yeah, there's no question about this as well. You know what I mean? Like they may have had. I mean, like, again, you know, I mostly download. I don't listen to NFL Stock Exchange. Conor, if I'm being honest with you.
- [29:09]
B
No insult taken.
- [29:11]
A
Right. But I know that I give you the click that's the most important thing. But I know that Audrey Estimate has been sort of this poster boy for you guys on Stock exchange and I'm just curious like how much of it is like you guys really like him and how much of it has just become he. He's just become a running joke of the show.
- [29:31]
B
He's kind of become a meme. The reason he became a thing was because so many people that listened to our show were obsessed with him. So we ran the joke that he was going to end up going three overall when we were kind of just like middle of the pack on Audrey Estima. But it's taken on a life of its own where one of our listeners shout out to Brady Lamb sent us a signed photograph of Audrey Estimay at Notre Dame. So you can't always decide your brand and fate, Matthew. We're just the Audra Guesstimate boys.
- [29:57]
C
You don't get to choose your heroes. Sometimes they choose you. So soldier Guesstimate, so be it.
- [30:01]
B
Thank God he's turning the corner in his second situation.
- [30:05]
A
That is. That is actually correct. Sometimes you don't choose your hero. Sometimes they do choose you. And that is the case of Malik Davis of the Dallas Cowboys. We don't know right now whether Javante Williams is going to come back. Remember, he gets banged up, got banged up two weeks ago, came back and played last week, got banged up again in that game on. On Christmas Day. But after Juvante left the game. Malik Davis played 61% of the snaps. He got 65% of the team's running back rushes attempt. Now it was against my commanders, not the toughest sledding. But neither are the Giants. New York allows the fourth most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Running backs that face the Giants this year are averaging a league high 5.6 yards per carry. Just because Ashton Dent and the Fire dumps the disaster of the Raiders offense they put out there last week couldn't do anything against them. Yes, I'm still bitter. Doesn't mean that Malik Davis can't be productive here. It feels like Connor, when I watch him, like there's a burst there, there's a little bit of a wiggle and I believe Javante Williams is on a one year deal. It wouldn't surprise me. I'm not saying this is likely. Never, I never, I would never say anything likely when you're talking about Jerry Jones. You don't want to try to predict that. But I would not be shocked. I'll just say I think it's within the range of outcomes that they let Javonte Williams go or somebody signs him to a bigger deal somewhere else and they go into the season with Mike Davis as the number one running back next year. I feel like he's shown enough shades of Rico Daddle a couple of years ago when they let Zeke go that you're like, you know what, actually this guy could be a lead running back in the NFL if he gets the run.
- [31:42]
B
Yeah, he's kind of quietly been in and out of the Dallas organization for four years now. So part of me wonders, Jay, if it's like the Fresh Legs theory of when you see a guy in week 17 that you haven't seen all year, you're like, wow, like he looks pretty good. And then you remember Kenyon Drake. You remember like he's barely had the ball all year compared to everybody else that's run down. But I agree, he's looked way better than I ever expected. Matthew and maybe at a minimum, he's an interesting insurance case next year because knowing the Cowboys feels like they don't have to, but they should bring Javonte Williams back because they found a lot of good things on this offense this year.
- [32:16]
C
I think so.
- [32:17]
B
Like the Cowboys cost a lot if.
- [32:19]
C
You start the season again and the Cowboys have Quinn and Williams and their defense healthier like this is. This should be a pretty good team. Like I think it's a Super bowl contender necessarily.
- [32:27]
B
Playoffish team.
- [32:28]
C
Yeah, it's a team that should go, you know, 9 and 8 or 10 and 7. And so I think in this matchup in particular Malik Davis, if Javante can't go, it's hugely attractive because the Giants have the worst run defense in the NFL. And also right now the Giants, I think they're slated to pick two and if they win they could fall as low as seven.
- [32:46]
B
So that's right.
- [32:47]
C
They really need to lose this game.
- [32:49]
B
There's so many ties.
- [32:50]
C
Dak is playing and so the Cowboys will want to win this game. So I think that Malik Davis, if there's someone who's going to just like explode out of Nowhere for a 29 point fantasy day, Malik Divis be a.
- [33:00]
B
Good candidate for that good call.
- [33:03]
A
They like to run when they get in close. We expect this team to be in scoring position often because often because of how well Dak and that the passing offense is going. And the last thing I'll say is is that for all the talk about Jackson, Smith and Jigba being the fantasy mvp, Drake May I think is in that conversation in terms of where guys went in their drafts compared Matthew Stafford compared to ADP and production. Javante Williams is in that conversation as well. He'll be a Peacockey nominee based out of stretches and adp. Here's some other other votes. How about Emmanuel Wilson, Josh Jacobs clearly less than 100% snap rate and touches last week. I believe the packers are locked into the seventh, right? Connor and Jay like they can't move. Yeah, they're locked, they're locked. So I would expect Josh Jacobs to rest this week. Emmanuel Olson should get a lot of run on the road at Minnesota and then Devin Singletary, you know he's had 12 touches in five of the past six games. He's averaging double digit fantasy points. He preferred Tyrone Tracy, but they use Singletary enough just to be annoying to those of us who manage Tyrone Tracy. And he has some flex viability because there's always a chance that Singletary will fall into the end zone.
- [34:12]
B
Let's go to wide receivers Luther Burden, who we've talked about how excited we are for the future of Luther Burden in this offense. But how about the now 77% available 17.7 points per game when he sees above a 20% target share this season? He's done that three games as you look at the week 17 fantasy leaders and of course with how the game ended, we'll have to keep an eye on his injury status as well. But we got to hear from Caleb Williams on some of the excitement around Luther Burton.
- [34:40]
C
Yeah, it's good to have Luther back.
- [34:43]
B
Let'S put it that way.
- [34:45]
A
Getting the ball in his hands. As he said before, it's a problem when you get the ball in his hands. And so just giving him a shot, you know, let him go make plays and get the ball, you know, give.
- [34:54]
B
Him, give him the best runner ball.
- [34:56]
A
That I can so that he can go and be explosive and be the player that he is and why we drafted him here.
- [35:03]
B
Luther Burton, guys. I mean every time he touches the ball, Jay, it feels like there's some electricity with him and it's great to see. When healthy though, the target share and all the production has kind of gone upwards as Caleb has grown into this passing offense.
- [35:16]
C
Yeah, picked him up off wave wired my Australian league where I'm in the final dominating. My friend Jackson King is very excited to see Bijan Robinson give Jackson195 McNuggies last night as I further twisted the knife with Bijan being the captain of my team. But Luther Burden, just having him on my team in championship week was just phenomenally exciting. Watching him every single play and seeing Connor just kind of the diversity of his skill set, getting short staff, he's operating sometimes out of the slides, catching deep touchdowns. I know he dropped the pass on the final drive and also kind of got banged up in the end zone. But it seems like there's not too much of a concern there and we're just with Roman Dunes health concerns with the fact that the Bears want to win this game. The Bears would rather get the two seed, play the packers in round one and then and not have to play the Rams. So I think that Luther Burton, assuming that he is healthy and good to go. Yeah, he's like a locked in wide receiver two time.
- [36:07]
B
Yeah, it feels that way, Matthew. Especially in another offense that it feels like we all want shares of at every single different skill spot.
- [36:15]
A
For sure. I mean listen and make no mistake, you know, Ben Johnson is absolutely very much looking forward to this matchup against his former team in the Lions. And the other thing is, is that the Bears are preparing for the postseason. They know that they, you know, they're whether that the two or the three or whatever, they're preparing for a postseason run. They have super bowl legitimate super bowl aspirations. And if they are going to make that kind of run that they want to, Luther Burton needs to be a part of this offense. Right. And so this is a game that to your point, not only do they want to win, but this is about trying to set themselves up for the, for the offense of the future. They'll get Roma dunes a back. But Luther Bird needs to be a part of this offense moving forward. So I expect him to get a decent amount of target share, especially after, you know, he was such a key part of the, of the, of the game against San Francisco, didn't have the result they wanted. But it wasn't Luther Burden's fault that they lost that game against the Niners. Last thing I just want to say here about Jay's Australian League, he called points, McNuggies. Connor, did you see. Did you hear that? Did anyone else catch that?
- [37:13]
B
I didn't understand.
- [37:16]
A
And also like this Australian League, why do I feel like Jay's the only one drafting American football players and he's somehow convinced everyone else has got like a bunch of Collingwood Magpies on their team and it's like, why am I losing 100 to nothing.
- [37:28]
B
Jay got Jabir Gibbs in round seven. Yeah, I've got massive fives of that.
- [37:33]
C
Yeah. Jackson's got Scott Pendlebury.
- [37:36]
B
Collingwood former captain Ryan Oswald asked, where do you gents think Burden should be drafted next year? I think we go with the assumption that DJ Moore is not on this team. Before answering this question.
- [37:46]
C
Yeah, what is he lacking?
- [37:47]
B
We asked, you guys asked me yesterday would I take him before dunes? And I think I said, I believe, yes, I would. But it's so close.
- [37:54]
C
Does he go in like the fourth, fifth round?
- [37:55]
B
I'd say fifth, yeah.
- [37:56]
C
Fifth round. Yeah.
- [37:58]
B
He's going to be a hype guy. Matthew, you can see the training camp videos from here for a mile away. The hype's going to. It might actually go too far where I'm like, yeah, eventually this is too much. That happens a lot. But I think Matthew, he will be highly, highly coveted next, next August.
- [38:11]
A
I think there's no question he will absolutely be a hype guy, a sleeper guy. And I think fourth or fifth round is about the, about the right range. People forget how deep wide receiver is and then you start getting into the range of like, well, am I taking Luther Burden or am I taking like Justin Jefferson? Who, like, I mean, you know, the chance that Justin Jefferson is going to fall down, maybe that's a little bit too far for Justin Jefferson. But people forget like, you know, you're like Luther Burton or Devonte Smith or Lad McConkey or, you know, I mean, like, yeah, I just t. Hidden is probably gonna go ahead of him. But like, just in terms of like, when you start doing the rankings again, go check out my top 50 rankings my way too early top 50 rankings for 2026 on rotorworld.com nbcsports.com company man, I just when you, when you're going through it and trying to rank the wide receivers, it's like you forget like how many good wide receivers there are that either produced this year that you have high expectations for next year or that had a down year. But you know, like again what do you do with Justin Jefferson, right? I mean again we got to figure out what they do. What do you do with Marvin Harrison Jr. You know, what do you do with McConkey? It's been tough. Been a, you know, been an up and down year for Devontae Smith and A.J. brown. Like those kind of guys. Right. So anyway, but I think right now I agree with you. Luther Burden somewhere in the fourth or fifth round he's definitely going to be a hype guy and I definitely think he probably gets drafted as a top 20 wide receiver next year.
- [39:31]
B
How about Parker Washington? 63% available over the last two weeks. Matthew a 28% target share. Liam Cohen and Trevor Lawrence love this guy.
- [39:39]
A
Yeah, they really do. And Parker Washington. Parker Washington can play football. You know just, just, just be clear that you see it right there. The, the Parkler. I like that. By the way, nice job whoever did the headline. Deb. Back to back games with double digit targets, right? 10 targets in each of the last two games. Over 100 receiving yards each of the last two games. You love this matchup against Tennessee, right? The Titans have allowed the seven most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and so Parker Washington as Brian Thomas continues to have trouble finding his way in this offense and teams are bracketing to Kobe Myers. This is the pass first offense that loves to throw to Parker Washington. He's out there about 63% of leagues. I suspect that if you're playing in week 18 he's probably already rostered because I think he's probably taken in a lot of a lot of competitive leagues. Parker Washington, no big deal but part of the seventh place champion Live at noon on the tube. Congratulations to Parker by the way. Your ring will be in the mail but I was able to use his 8 for 115 last week against you Connor. That was part of the onslaught with Derek Henry and the Drake man Jace Brown. Everything that I put on you Parker Washington also a big part of what we were doing to you Connor to fantasy life commenter anyway but yes, Parker Washington good enough for my seventh place team. He's good enough for your week 18 team. There's no question about that.
- [41:13]
B
Jalen. I have nothing to say about this second consolation game.
- [41:17]
C
Let's move on.
- [41:17]
B
Yes, Jalen McMillan. 98% available. A team high 20% target share in week 17. I mean, this. It's not been pretty watching this Bucs offense, Jay. But I think what matters here is they are playing a very meaningful game somehow against the Panthers and McMillan has found his way back into this offense after being hurt all year.
- [41:38]
C
Yeah, I don't understand anything about these Bucks. If you asked me before the season, who was going to be the number one wide receiver for the Bucks come week 17? Week 18, Jalen McMillan would have been a distant fourth choice, but apparently he is the guy in this offense for the meantime. His target share very healthy. I don't understand why Becu Bucha isn't out there. Don't understand the work to his goggles. I don't understand why the team sucks. Why does this team suck? They have good players. It's just nothing is working at the the moment.
- [42:04]
B
The defense definitely sucks.
- [42:05]
C
The defense sucks. Baker Mayfield, I don't think he's right physically. I think there's something wrong. Ever since he did the shoulder, he's been remotely the same. In any case, though, this is a team that is throwing the ball and they got a fairly favorable matchup against the Panthers secondary. And Jalen McMillan. I think at this point, like I would prefer the upside of Jalen McMillan to whatever is going on with her Mecca Buka. Yeah. And I know Godwin had the big game and he's been out there, but I think they're in a similar tier.
- [42:30]
B
Some deeper league targets here. Isaac Tesla, Jalen Coker, Shamari, DK and Elik. IO Manor reappearing here. Matthew, the both Titans receivers.
- [42:40]
A
Yeah. For DK. You prefer DK to IO Manor. DK had a 26% target share over his last four games, but I'm. Manor got two end zone targets last week, so he started to reemerge. But going back to the top of those lists of the others receiving votes, Isaac Tesla quietly has scored in four of the past five games. Eight end zone targets in that stretch. He's a little bit touchdown or bust. But with the Lions out of it, I think they'll want to get a longer look at Isaac Tesla in this game. How about Jalen Coker? Cokeheads finally unite. We've got something here. Since week 12, he's had an 84% route participation, 18% target share. It's still Petero McMillan. And then Jalen Coker but I think he's overtaken Xavier Leggett for the number two role in Carolina's passing offense, such as it is. And then you mentioned the two Titans wide receivers. They have to throw and I prefer DK to IO Manor but again if you're desperate, those are guys that are out there in many leagues.
- [43:31]
B
Let's go to tight ends. Colston Loveland just 51% available Jay 20 plus fantasy points in both games. He's seen seven plus targets this season. I don't think there's any questions about Colson Loveland's talent. It's just when you share an offense with Cole Comet and a lot of talented players, it's just usage for him.
- [43:45]
C
Yeah, it is just usage but he got the usage against San Francisco, Francisco and with Roma Dunes a either going to be out again or limited. You suspect Colson Lovell a bit more room for him to operate that drop that he had on the final drive Is Collins worth noting on the call? His first drop of the season. Very short hands and clearly Caleb and Ben Johnson trust the guy.
- [44:06]
A
He's averaging nine yards per target that is the fourth highest among tight ends with 50 or more targets. I mean they're, they're targeting him all over the field. It's not just dink and dunk stuff here. With Colston Loveland you can see why the guy was a first round overall pick. Cole Comet who so Colson Loveland's been a big part of this and again I think Ben John they want to win this game and we want a part of this offense. Caleb Williams been red hot. How about Jake Tongas guys like so he's had four games without George Kittle the past four games without George Kittle and he's averaging 15.7 fantasy points per game. He scored in three of those. Bang bang, let's go. Jake Tongas has been a big part of what the Niners have been doing recently. 27% target share last week as well. They're playing Seattle and for all the brilliance of the Seahawks defense, they're actually susceptible to tight ends. So in a week in which we assume George Kittle is not going to go, Jake Tongas actually should be a big part of this matchup against the Seahawks team that is bottom five in both receptions and yards allowed to opposing.
- [45:06]
B
Tight end some deeper league targets. Michael Mayer against the Chiefs. AJ Barner It's a Saturday game against the Niners and Chigaconquo great touchdown from Chiggy. Chiggy back just in time. If you need a defense. You got a stream of defense in Week 18. Jacksonville has Tennessee, Green Bay has what's left of this Minnesota offense. But to be fair, the Vikings have what's left of this Green Bay offense and Brian Flores is cooking the Ravens against the Steelers. No DK Metcalf again and the Bengals against Shedeur Sanders. Browns offense. We're going to take our first break when we're back. Just ahead, Bijan Robinson lands in Matthews way. Jonathan Medici chiming in real quick. What time do we think Barry's tee time is and how many bevies will be had during the round eight? You don't have to answer this Matthew, but you can.
- [45:56]
A
I'll just be very honest with you. The tee time's at 1:30 and I would take the over.
- [46:02]
B
That's a good way to be. Alright, one more back Matthew Stafford losing his grip on the MVP race after Monday night. It unfortunately sounds that way.
- [46:13]
A
Looking for a smarter way to watch the big game? Sling has launched a game changing way to stream live TV with passes. Instead of committing to a monthly plan you might not use. Passes gives instant access for just a day, a week or a weekend with a day pass. Non stop. College football is available for 24 hours for only $4.99. ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC games simulcast on ESPN3 are included. And for just one more dollar you can add SEC or ACC networks. Sling puts fans in charge with total flexibility and control. Watch what's wanted when it's wanted. Best of all, you don't need to remember to cancel when your access is up. You won't be charged again until you purchase another day pass. Passes are only available for orange subscription packages. Visit sling.com to learn more. Chime is changing the way people bank. Forget overdraft fees, minimum balance fees and monthly fees. It's the new way to build a credit history with your own money and get rewarded every single day. Chime is not just smarter banking. It's the most rewarding way to bank. Join the millions who are already banking fee free today. It just takes a few minutes to sign up. Head to chime.comffhh that's chime.comffhh Chime is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services the secured Chime, Visa credit card and MY Pay line of credit provided by the Bancorp Bank NA or Stride Bank NA. My pay eligibility requirements apply and credit limits ranges $20 to $500. Optional services and products may have fees or charges. See chime.com/fees info. Advertised annual percentage yield with Chimes+ status only. Otherwise, 1.00% APY applies. No minimum balance required. Chime card on time payment history may have a positive impact on your credit score. Results may vary. See chime.com for details and applicable terms.
- [48:05]
B
Alright, here's the notable fantasy performances from Monday Night Football. Yeah, the big guy at the top, the birthday boy, Bijan Robinson, 39.9 points. The only player with over 20 in this one. And that's really the storyline here as the Rams lose a little bit of a surprise one against what's left of the Falcons here. Matthew, Matthew Stafford, his MVP campaign is slowly fading away here.
- [48:32]
A
Yeah, he did not look good. I mean, honestly, credit to, you know, Raheem Morris, my source. Raheem Morris, who look, you know, I mean, I think some people, I think some people thought going into this game that, oh, Sean McVay is going to know exactly how to attack Raheem Morris's defense, obviously because they coach together. But credit to Raheem Morris who know exactly all the tricks up Sean McVay's sleeve. And bad day at the office for Matthew Stafford. They, they did a good job of, of, you know, bracketing and limiting. Puka Nkua, although, you know, came, you know, within a millisecond of making, you know, one of the catches of the year. And maybe the day looks a little bit different there. Still manages to get in the end zone here. But yeah, credit to Raheem Morris for having this team in a game which was meaningless and they easily could have laid down. They showed up, they played and they won a game against a good Rams team. And just thinking about the playoffs, like the fact that the Rams don't have the number one seed in the NFC makes me nervous about the potential super bowl chances because this is yet another bad loss on the road at an NFC south team that they should have destroyed. Yeah, I mean, the line was seven going into this game. And you know, we talked about, you know, we talked about this yesterday and, you know, we like the idea that they would potentially they would cover this number. They would. And they just, you know, they lost to Carolina, they lost to Atlanta. This is a bad one. But again, thank you to birthday Bijan for, you know, understanding the assignment.
- [50:00]
B
Jay, the MVP race. Walk me through how this changes, what it changes and how big the gap is now. People are struggling with Drake May's schedule versus Stafford. Hasn't had a lot of bad games this year, but this was obviously a stinker on a game. There were seven point favorites.
- [50:14]
C
Yeah, I think there's some push and pull facts. One May has definitely had an easier schedule. At the same time May doesn't have Puka Nakua, Devonte Adams a better O line and Sean mcvan. And I think what this does is it just highlights the fact that if you just look at the numbers, the things that voters typically value, the way we evaluate quarterbacks, things like QBR and passer rating and EPA per play and yards per attempt and completion percentage over expected. Drake May is number one in the entire league in all of those things ratings and Stafford isn't two in almost any of them outside of passer ratings. So the statistical gap between these two is now massive in favor of Drake May. And also the reality is that Stafford's a 6 seed right now. He's 11 5, May is 133 and a 2 seed who has a chance at the 1 seed going to the final week. So I think if May beats Miami and they're like minus 650 to do that, I think he will simply win MVP now and May is minus 400 to win MVP. So I think that he's value at his current price as far as Stafford goes, I think it was a reminder that like Stafford's been amazing. I think he's going to come second at mvp. He loses two of his offensive linemen yet last night and with Dotson and Alaric Jackson and now he's going up against a super fast Atlanta defense and it just seemed like he just got.
- [51:24]
B
A little bit rattled and no Devonta Adams again. Yeah. So you know they've run a lot of 13 personnel. They've done what they've had to do but it's man it's crazy how quickly those odds swing drastically in Charlotte Trafford.
- [51:34]
C
Was like minus going and they didn't.
- [51:37]
A
Run the ball effectively either. I mean you know Kyron and Corum like neither the I looked looked that effective. Neither of our Corum bets hit it just you know like so it became somewhat of a one dimensional offense here for, for Stafford but I think just the way that again six interceptions over the past five games and yes he's missed Devonte Adams for a couple of them but down the stretch it's been, it's been tough for Stafford an amazing season. But I'm with Jay. I think Drake may end up winning mvp.
- [52:03]
B
Alright, we're going to take our last break. When we're back, our favorite early week bets on sides and totals. Last call after this with early line alert. DraftKings Sportsbook is an official sports betting partner of the NFL and new customers can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets. If your bet wins, download the app and use promo code ffhh when you sign up DraftKings sportsbook.
- [52:27]
C
The Crown is yours, crowd is yours.
- [52:30]
B
Last call. Early line alert as we see some lines for games that could have significant implications for the best and worst reasons. Obviously the Raiders trying to lock down that first overall pick. The Giants trying to stay at least in number two. But then you have massive high stakes NFC matchups of the Seahawks and Niners, Panthers and Bucs, and the division on the line for the Ravens and the Steelers. Jay, what are you looking at with the spreads this week?
- [52:55]
C
You'll take the Bears minus two and a half home to the Lions. Ben Johnson Revenge game of so I think the Lions are so decimated. They're already decimated. They got further guys hurt in that Minnesota game. I think that the Bears blow them out and secure the two seed.
- [53:09]
B
Yeah, I'm kind of sifting through the the trash games. Yours is up there. Mine is even worse. The Bills minus seven against the Jets. The jets over their last three games they've lost by an average of 28 points. It doesn't matter if Josh Allen doesn't play in this game. The energy will be crazy in Buffalo. The last regular season game at High Mark Stadium. Everybody will be out there going nuts. The Bills have to play some people. The jets have been playing Brady Cook. This is this line. It's a trick because they're like the backups. But the jets are playing third stringers already.
- [53:37]
C
It's the NFL. You can't rest 30 guards.
- [53:39]
B
No, the jets will. They'll lose by at least a touchdown here. Matthew, what do you like?
- [53:43]
A
Yeah, I like the over over 44 and a half in the Browns Bengals game again. Bengals can't stop anyone. The Cleveland Browns offense and with Shadow have shown signs of life. And then you've got Joe Burrow on the other side. I think the Browns will focus on doing anything, anything to get Myles Garrett that sack record which open a whole bunch of things. So I think 44 and a half is too low for a very good offense and two bad defenses at the moment. So give me the over in the Brown Bengals game.
- [54:09]
B
All right. Matthew's got his 130 tee time. Enjoy Matthew for him. Jay, I'm Connor. We'll see you guys tomorrow.