Week 4 Start/Sit: Jordan Love, Chase Brown, Ladd McConkey, Travis Kelce

Summary

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Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry

Episode: Week 4 Start/Sit: Jordan Love, Chase Brown, Ladd McConkey, Travis Kelce
Air Date: September 24, 2025
Hosts: Matthew Berry, Jay Croucher, Connor Rogers

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on Week 4 start/sit dilemmas, with Matthew Berry and co-hosts Jay Croucher and Connor Rogers breaking down key players in critical fantasy matchups. The trio use their signature blend of in-depth analysis, playful banter, and running inside jokes to guide listeners through tough decisions on Jordan Love, running backs like Chase Brown and Ashen Gentry, wideouts like Ladd McConkey and Calvin Ridley, and Travis Kelce’s tight end outlook. The crew also debuts a new "Blind Date" segment to analyze players by their usage and stats, not just name recognition.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Quarterback Start/Sit – Spotlight on Jordan Love

[04:01–08:06]

• Jordan Love’s Upside vs. Dallas:

  • The group is bullish on starting Love despite a poor showing against Cleveland, citing the Dallas defense as “a catastrophe.”
  • Dallas has allowed the most fantasy points to QBs (27.8/game) and at least 24 to every opponent this year.
  • Berry: “I’d start Jay against the Cowboys at this point.” [04:19]
  • Only risk: Packers defense could dominate, leading to a run-heavy second half and capping Love’s ceiling.
  • Berry ranks Love as QB9 for the week.

• Justin Herbert vs. Jordan Love:

  • Given a start/sit dilemma (Herbert vs. Love), Berry and the panel slightly prefer Herbert due to projected pass volume and safer game script, but both are strong top-10 options.
  • Berry: “I think both guys are easy top 10 plays this week. I probably prefer Herbert…but I think he’s safer.” [08:10]

Notable Quote:

“No team in the NFL has given more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks than your Dallas Cowboys. 27.8 fantasy points per game.”
—Matthew Berry [04:19]

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2. Running Back Dilemmas: Gentry, Chase Brown, Nick Chubb, and More

[10:21–21:13]

Ashen Gentry (Raiders)

• Gentry has disappointed but gets a “keep it open” endorsement as a mid-tier RB2 (RB15) due to a soft matchup vs. the Bears (allowing 5.3 YPC and 2nd-most RB rushing yards).
• Berry: “I feel like they have to try to get him going…Something has to give, and Gentry does enough in week four to be a top 20 play.” [10:46]

Chase Brown (Bengals)

• Brown’s stats (2 YPC) have been rough, but Berry says he gets the volume (83% of RB touches), and the matchup with Denver (run funnel) makes him a start (RB22).
• Brown is favored over Ashton Gentry rest of season.
• “I could explain away Chase Brown…We’ve at least gotten one good Chase Brown game.” [13:18]
• On trading for Nico Collins: “I think they're both rest of season...who goes first? Nico Collins or Chase Brown? They go around the same range.” [16:32]

Nick Chubb (Browns)

• Trending the wrong way: losing snaps to Woody Marks, under 15 touches in all three games, not catching passes; ranked RB30 (TD-dependent flex).
• “I'm closing out on Nick Chubb...if you start Nick Chubb, you're going to need him to fall into the end zone.” [21:13]

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3. Wide Receiver Dilemmas: Ladd McConkey, Calvin Ridley, Jameson Williams, and More

[21:50–29:17]

Ladd McConkey

• Despite two quiet weeks, he’s a confident play (“keeping it open”) versus a Giants D that gives up the 2nd-most WR points.
• “I think it’s McConculous, the lack of production. I think that changes a little bit.” [22:39]
• Berry ranks him WR23.

Calvin Ridley

• Situational “close it out” – utilization is way down, under 40 yards/game, 38% catch rate, and the offense is shifting focus.
• “One of the pro Calvin Ridley arguments was just massive target share. But...he’s not getting the target share we expected...” [23:20]

Jameson Williams

• Still too low in target share (<15%), no red zone looks, pure deep threat; “closing it out” vs. a tough Browns defense (WR39).
• “You’re banking on one play...against the Browns, I don’t know that it’s a great bet.” [28:23]

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4. Tight End Spotlight: Travis Kelce

[29:17–32:22]

• Kelce hasn’t boomed but is TE12 per game; in a shallow position, you keep him open (TE8 this week).
• “If you used an early pick on Travis Kelce, chances are you don't have a better option.” [29:28]
• Panel notes potential improvement as more weapons return to the KC offense.

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5. New Segment: BLIND DATE – Player Stats Without Names!

[39:02–52:31]

• The panel analyzes mystery players by stats, utilization, and situation before revealing their identities. Featured:
  • Alvin Kamara: High floor from snap share, much less involved as a pass-catcher; adjust expectations.
  • James Cook: Under 60% snaps, but huge share of carries and touchdowns in a high-scoring Buffalo offense.
  • Davante Adams: Still a target monster and producing as a WR1 even with Puka Nakua as a teammate.
  • Michael Pittman Jr.: Not flashy, but steady volume and a solid PPR floor as Colts “alpha.”
  • Hunter Henry: TE usage and production look sustainable for a low-end TE1 finish.
• Emphasis on process (usage, opportunity) over pure box score chasing.

Notable Quotes:

“I'm probably more in on Kamara than not, just because again, because of the usage. But…I think he's much more of a flex play because of the lack of passing game usage.”
—Matthew Berry [41:33]

“He [James Cook] might be like six or seven. Like he's on legit RB1 the rest of the way.”
—Connor Rogers [43:56]

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6. Fast Reactions & Futures Bets

[55:47–57:10]

• Jonathan Taylor (Connor): Offensive Player of the Year bet at +450; “Never comes off the field, run-heavy offense, Colts’ playoff hopes tied to Taylor.” [55:51]
• Baker Mayfield (Berry): MVP dark horse at +1800; case for Bucs’ 3-0 start despite injuries. [56:11]
• Quinton Judkins (Jay): Offensive Rookie of the Year long-shot; “Has looked like the best rookie running back in a very short span of time.” [56:32]

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Notable Quotes & Banter

• "I’m a company man. We will be there as well. Fantasy Football Pregame will be live from Jerry World Sunday morning…If you try to come see us and you get arrested, I will send George Tabarikis to bail you out.”
  —Matthew Berry [07:22]

• On Chubb’s production:
  “He looks better than I thought he would coming into the season…not the old Nick Chubb…somewhere in between peak Nick Chubb and then what we saw last year...So yeah, mid chub.”
  —Matthew Berry [19:32]

• On fantasy frustration:
  “My team’s 0-3. Asked and answered. Understood. But when you do, you call me champ…until there’s a new champion crowned, I am still your defending champion.”
  —Matthew Berry [25:00]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamps | |-----------------------------------------------------|----------------| | Jordan Love Start/Sit & QB Comparison | 04:01–08:06 | | Ashen Gentry (RB) Analysis | 10:21–11:53 | | Chase Brown (RB), Trade Q’s | 13:02–18:07 | | Nick Chubb (RB), Touches Declining | 18:41–21:13 | | Ladd McConkey (WR), Matchup vs Giants | 21:50–23:04 | | Calvin Ridley, Changing Role | 23:20–24:57 | | Jameson Williams, Role Clarity | 27:43–29:17 | | Travis Kelce, TE Landscape | 29:17–32:22 | | "Blind Date" – Usage-Based Player Analysis | 39:02–52:31 | | Futures Bets Segment | 55:47–57:10 |

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Final Takeaways

• Jordan Love is a top-10 start, driven by a dreadful Dallas secondary.
• Ashen Gentry/Chase Brown are playable volume RB2s due to usage and matchups, even if they’re frustrating.
• Nick Chubb is touchdown-dependent and slipping into desperation flex territory.
• Ladd McConkey—worth trusting for a bounce-back in a great matchup.
• Fade Calvin Ridley and Jameson Williams until roles clarify.
• Stick with Travis Kelce, and know the tight end bar is low.
• Understand the "why" behind production via usage and situation—don’t get blinded by box scores!

The episode is packed with actionable advice, trademark Berry humor, and sharp insights, making it essential listening for anyone facing tough fantasy lineup calls this week.

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Transcript

[Matthew Berry]

Morning, Zoe. Got donuts.

[Jeff Bridges]

Jeff Bridges, why are you still living above our garage?

[Matthew Berry]

Well, I dig the mattress and I want to be in a T mobile commercial like you teach me. So Dana.

[Jeff Bridges]

Oh no, I'm not really prepared. I couldn't possibly at t mobile get the new iPhone 17 Pro on them. It's designed to be the most powerful iPhone yet and has the ultimate pro camera system.

[Matthew Berry]

Wow, impressive. Let me try. T mobile is the best place to get iPhone 17 Pro because they've got the best network. Nice.

[Jeff Bridges]

Je free.

[Connor Rogers]

You heard them.

[Matthew Berry]

T mobile is the best place to.

[Connor Rogers]

Get the new iPhone 17 Pro on.

[Matthew Berry]

Us with eligible traded in any condition. So what are we having for lunch?

[Jeff Bridges]

Dude, my work here is done.

[Connor Rogers]

The 24 month bill credit on experience.

[Matthew Berry]

Beyond for well qualified customers + tax and 35 device connection charge credit send and balance due if you pay off earlier Cancel Finance Agreement. IPhone 17 Pro 256 gigs 1099.99 A new line minimum 100 plus a month plan with auto pay plus taxes and fees required. Best mobile network in the US based on analysis by Oklahoma Speed Test Intelligence Data 182025 Visit T mobile.com this episode.

[Jay Croucher]

Is brought to you by Disney, Hulu and the new ESPN app.

[Matthew Berry]

For the first time ever, get all of ESPN along with Disney and Hulu with an incredible limited time offer. It's all the entertainment you need for just $29.99 a month for 12 months.

[Jay Croucher]

Visit Disney plush Hulu espnbundle.com for details. Ad supported plan auto renews at regular price. Currently $35.99 per month.

[Matthew Berry]

Subject to change unless canceled.

[Jay Croucher]

Ends January 5, 2026.

[Matthew Berry]

Terms apply. I don't think he's a four beer play. I appreciate that. Johnny Dangerly. A reference to one of the segments we have on fantasy football. Pregame every Sunday morning at 11am you.

[Connor Rogers]

Missed the show yesterday.

[Matthew Berry]

Really?

[Connor Rogers]

It was a tough show. Yeah, it was a lot of weird.

[Jay Croucher]

What were some of the lowlights?

[Matthew Berry]

How long do you have?

[Connor Rogers]

There's a new nickname for Matthew. Hashtag Baby oilberry.

[Jay Croucher]

I want nothing to do with Sunday.

[Connor Rogers]

Want to talk about I'll still choose.

[Jay Croucher]

The jets no matter how many times.

[Connor Rogers]

The baby oil stuff is done.

[Sponsor/Advertiser]

Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry.

[Jay Croucher]

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Happy Hour. Connor Rogers. Matthew Berry. Jay Croucher. Yes folks, it is a backup producer Pete Day. So buckle up and enjoy the ride.

[Matthew Berry]

Wheeling. Wheeling. The TV projector, the DVD player. You know like hey, vhs.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, he goes with vhs.

[Matthew Berry]

Oh, for sure. Hey, go. Here's dead Poet Society, everyone. Captain.

[Connor Rogers]

My captain stole my joke. Yeah, baby oil Backup Pete. It's gonna be a good day.

[Matthew Berry]

Always is.

[Jay Croucher]

It is Wednesday, which means you have a lot of start sit dilemmas. We try to solve them. Keep it open or close it out is what we do here at the fantasy football happy hour bar. We're gonna have a new segment called Blind Date, so you'll find out more about that in segment two. And as we always do, we give you some futures bets as we look into the crystal ball. But before we do anything, Jackson Dart, you drink for free today as you get ready to make your first NFL regular series start.

[Matthew Berry]

No pressure. Jackson Dart.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah. You only have to save everybody in science organization.

[Matthew Berry]

We needed to keep Wandell Robinson going while saving Malik. Neighbors help Cam Scatterboo get closer to the goal line. Maybe make Theo Johnson a thing, say Brian Dable and Joe Shane's job. It's no big deal, Jackson Dart. But you've got all of that.

[Jay Croucher]

While the stakes are low.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, stakes are low. While trying to keep your mom out of the spotlight. That is not easy as well. The media loves it there. The media loves it.

[Jay Croucher]

They do. The cameras.

[Matthew Berry]

The cameras.

[Jay Croucher]

It's not us.

[Matthew Berry]

The cameras love Mama Dart. Mm.

[Connor Rogers]

Mama Dart. Yeah, it is funny. So everyone's getting fired if he's no good.

[Matthew Berry]

Including Conor.

[Jay Croucher]

I'm in the New York media, so I go, too.

[Matthew Berry]

It's a weird thing. Just so you know, if you. If you see me, Jay and Lawrence full time next year, it's, you know.

[Jay Croucher]

Worse lands will be in trouble.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, worst lands is in trouble. Badlands is in trouble. All sorts of things.

[Connor Rogers]

Aaron Glenn, Aaron Byrne, they're all gone.

[Matthew Berry]

It'll literally just be me, J and Audrey. Estimate we'll be the only three that are left. As well as I'm doing cross podcast jokes now. All right. Keep this on the rails, Connor, for the love of God.

[Jay Croucher]

I'm now our only hope. Keep it open or close it out. Let's jump right into it. And we're going to start with Jordan Love, who's coming off a brutal week against a great defense in Cleveland. But here's the good news for Jordan Love. You need. You need an antidote here. You need something from Dr. Denny Carter, or whoever it is. You got the Dallas Cowboys this week, Matthew. What's better than that?

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, I mean, that's the point, right? You're keeping it open like you see at Dallas, and you just sort of circle. Could be anyone. It really doesn't matter. I'd start Jay against the Cowboys at this point. Like no team in the NFL is given more fantasy points to oppose quarterbacks than your Dallas Cowboys. 27.8 fantasy points per game. Listen, you know I love the commanders but I also enjoy the Cowboys struggles. All three quarterbacks that have faced the Dallas Cowboys this year have scored at least 24 fantasy points. They're allowing touchdowns at the fifth highest rate. No team is worse than the NFL in past defense. This season they're allowing A league high 9.8 yards per pass attempt. I know the conversation right now is about Jordan Love, but I could see this being Matthew Golden's breakout game. Connor.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, it's about time. Right? And when you look at what Dallas defense has done, they've allowed wide receivers to get over the top of them at times. Plenty of times this year, the Bears, it was a laser show. I was like Caleb Williams 40 yards that way, 30 yards that way.

[Matthew Berry]

I mean you saw Dunesay and Bergen like, you know, like I agree with the take.

[Jay Croucher]

I think Matthew golden finally and he's got an open J. It's just Jordan Love missed him. They're getting up to speed together.

[Connor Rogers]

There was a couple misses in the Washington game in particular but I thought the encouraging thing was last week Matthew golden snaps her up target show was up. He's trending in the right direction overall with Jordan Love. Look, I have a lot of money invested in the packers this year. Invest in the packers and Jordan Levy needs.

[Jay Croucher]

Don't be there in Dallas and the Saints.

[Connor Rogers]

It seems like you can't do it without me now I'm off the Saints. I'm a Colts man now.

[Matthew Berry]

No, no, but you've lost like all the money you've lost on the Saints. You now need the packers to come home. Packers and Colts.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, they're my two teams. Yeah. I've traded the Giants and the Saints for the packers and the Colts. So moving up in the world. But no, I think we're going to look back and realize that the Cleveland Browns might be the best defense in football and that puts Jordan loves 1.9 yard ADOT in that game into a bit more perspective. This Dallas defense is just a catastrophe and the reason why he's going to be on the field on the opposite side on Sunday night. At least one of the reasons why. So I think they get back on track like Wanda Robinson was made to look like peak Larry Fitzgerald against his defense two weeks ago. It's just. It's a disaster.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. If there's one concern. So I love it. QB9 if there's one concern here. It's just that they, that they get up big. That the packers defense is also so good. They're the complete opposite of the Cowboys defense. And that in an offense that's going to have to operate without CD Lam on Sunday as as much as we like Dak Prescott, as good as he's looked, is there a scenario here where they're just getting down big, that the packers start running a lot. It's a big Josh Jacobs second half here and that there aren't monster numbers here still? Again, every quarterback that has faced the Cowboys this year has scored at least 24 fantasy points. So here keeping it open for Jordan Love. But so I could. That's why he's just not like a top three or four guy is just, you know, he doesn't really run. And there's a chance that they slow down in the second half. But yeah, all systems are go. And by the way, we will as long as we're talking about the packers and the Cowboys on Sunday night right here on NBC. And Peacock, I'm a company man. We will be there as well. Fantasy football pregame will be live from Texas Stadium from. From Jerry World Sunday morning. I don't believe fans can come in because the gates aren't open yet. Try, try.

[Jay Croucher]

But see what happens.

[Matthew Berry]

Absolutely could happen. Of course, minor fees. I promise if, if you, if you try to come see us on Sunday morning and you get arrested, I will send George Tabarikis to Billy. I make that promise. I make that promise.

[Jay Croucher]

Great use of George's son. Really glad he probably really glad he signed up to do this show.

[Connor Rogers]

It's his role. It's what he's supposed to do.

[Matthew Berry]

George knows a lot of bail's bondsman, so I'm just saying we'll point that out there. I'm not saying why, but he just does. He has. He has them in all spots around the world.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, he's got. He gets stuff done, George.

[Matthew Berry]

He does. Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

He's like a Paul Man's wolf in Pulp Fiction. Paul Man's hobby Cartel.

[Matthew Berry]

George Sevarinkis. Exactly right. Exactly right. Anyway, we're keeping it. Jordan Love, Matthew.

[Jay Croucher]

How about this one? Maverick guy, old maverick guy asked who's a better start this week, Jordan Love or Justin Herbert? It's a tricky one.

[Matthew Berry]

It. It is. It is a tricky one, especially because I'm going to. Boy, oh boy. Yeah. Against the Giants. You know, I feel. Yeah, I feel better about Justin Herbert just because.

[Connor Rogers]

Better about the past volume.

[Matthew Berry]

I feel better about the Pass volume. And I also feel, weirdly, I feel better about the Giants being able to move the ball against the Chargers. And Jackson darts first start script. You know that I just think the. The sort of game script there as well. Now it's a lower over. Under. It's 43 and a half for the Chargers, Giants, whereas it's 47 and a half for Packers Cowboys. Like, I think they're right there. Honestly, I'll say this old Maverick guy, I don't think he screwed up because I think both guys are easy top 10 plays this week. So I probably have. Probably prefer Herbert, to your point, a little bit. But I think he's safer because again, I do think there's a scenario where the packers are big. They get a pick six or something like that, or defensive score and then just, you know. You know, Micah gets home, you know, sacks Dak Prescott gets a fumble, scores a touchdown, that kind of thing.

[Jay Croucher]

And they start running the ball 90% of the time.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

Backup producer Pates whispering my ear that we should call Jordan Love. The Love Love.

[Jay Croucher]

It's from Stuntman Chuck right now. Stuntman Chuck always brings the good stuff.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, the loveler stemman and chuck85.

[Jay Croucher]

That's right. Maybe that's when he was born.

[Matthew Berry]

Being lazy.

[Connor Rogers]

Now we're just calling everyone a Rod.

[Jay Croucher]

Like it's just like the whole chat just ends.

[Matthew Berry]

It's. It lower.

[Jay Croucher]

Yes.

[Matthew Berry]

That's the whole.

[Jay Croucher]

The Brownler, the Loveler, the Tootler. It's out of control.

[Matthew Berry]

How about the lover? How about the Lover?

[Connor Rogers]

No, I don't like that either. Yeah, we can do better. So here's the thing.

[Matthew Berry]

But yet we haven't. You'd think we could, but we haven't done better.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. Jordan Love. It's like his name's Jordan Love. Like this. It's a short name. It's condensed already. I don't think he knows.

[Matthew Berry]

Kay.

[Jay Croucher]

Gemma says J.

[Connor Rogers]

Lo. That's.

[Matthew Berry]

You know, that's so good.

[Jay Croucher]

I knew he'd like that and I knew you'd despise it.

[Matthew Berry]

That's the winner. Sucks. That's the winner.

[Connor Rogers]

The problem with that one is it sucks.

[Jay Croucher]

This is a new JLo.

[Matthew Berry]

There is a JLo.

[Connor Rogers]

One, there already is JLo who clearly defined J. Lo. Two, it's not how his name sounds.

[Matthew Berry]

Daughter lo. It's not JLo, it's J. Lo. Where his arm is the holy grailo. Okay.

[Connor Rogers]

All right.

[Jay Croucher]

Steer the wheel back.

[Matthew Berry]

Alex, our stage manager, Alex. She liked that one.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, she's a fan. That counts for something. All right, let's, let's go to the running backs where things get a little bit more difficult, decision wise. And we're going to bring up Ashton Genti. Not because you're considering sitting Ash and Genty already, but it's been bad, it's been bad here, Matthew. So how far does he now fall down the rankings? And this is another guy with a matchup that should get him going in the right direction. But it's been that bad.

[Matthew Berry]

Right? And that's why I'm keeping it open. But he's my running back 15, somebody that was regularly drafted among the top five or six running backs this year. I met running back 15, a mid tier RB2, and there's nothing that I can point to on his usage with the Raiders that you know, that we sit here and go like, oh well, it's just, you know, whatever, bad play call here, what a touchdown callback due to penalty, that kind of stuff, like it's been bad. But Raiders, Raiders, given their record, given the criticism of the front office, the coaching staff, of their usage of Genty, I feel like they have to try to get him going. And then you think about this matchup with the Bears where Chicago is allowing the fifth highest yards per carry to opposing running backs. 5.3 on the season and they've also led the second most rushing yards to running backs so far this year. So I just feel like something has to give and Genti does enough in week four to be a top 20 play. I'm keeping it open. I'm starting Ash and Genti and you probably don't have a choice, honestly. You know, maybe you lucked into Javante Williams in the, you know, in the middle rounds kind of thing. Or you knew, huh?

[Jay Croucher]

Or you knew that he was going to be great. You just felt it when you got him in the 14th round.

[Matthew Berry]

Sure. Yeah, exactly. But all I'm saying is is that, you know, Travis Etienne is another guy that has popped that you got in the middle to later rounds. But generally speaking, my guess is that you don't have the options to bench somebody that used a first round pick on Brendan Ortlieb. Says play. Should I play Scatter Boo over Genty? No would be my answer. I mean, no, I agree. Chargers are a top 10 pass a run defense so far this season as well. I mean, you're still seeing candidly too much Devin Singletary and we don't know what this offense looks like under Jackson Dart. We think it's going to be good, Connor, but. But I think and one of the reasons I think Dart is going to be such a fantasy superstar is because he uses his legs so much, which is great and should open up run lanes for Scatterboo. But also there's a scenario where Scatterboo doesn't get the touchdown because they're doing bootlegs and they're doing some other. You know, there's a. There's a. We've seen that with Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor. We've seen that with Jayne Daniels and their running backs.

[Connor Rogers]

Jalen Hurts, obviously, to be fair to the question, I don't think it's that much of a gaff and it's not in his rankings.

[Jay Croucher]

He has Skadaboo 18th. He has Genti 15.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, it's not Genti. But still, it's not that crazy of a question, which is a problem.

[Jay Croucher]

It is not this one from Tanish Joshi. Bigger disappointment so far. Ashan Genty or Chase Brown. That's our next player, Chase Brown. And keep it open or close it out. Listen, it's been brutal. It's been really bad. He's averaging two yards a carry, but he still gets all the work. Matthew.

[Matthew Berry]

He does. Let me answer that question. Who's the bigger disappointment? And I'll tell you right now, I have a definitive answer on this. Ashton Genty. Ashton Genty is the bigger disappointment and I'll tell you why. First off, Chase Brown at least was good in week one. We've at least seen. And Jenty went before Chase Brown in pretty much every draft according to adp. Across the. Across the board. So Genti cost you more on draft day. He has been more of a dislike. We haven't gotten a great Genti game. We've at least gotten one good Chase Brown game. And more importantly, I can explain away Chase Brown. Like, they lost Joe Burrow. Right. Like there's nothing like the Raiders offense is what we expected. It's Geno, it's Brock Bowers, it's Jacoby Myers, it's Trey Tucker on the outside. Like it's. There's nothing from the Raiders standpoint other than just like he hadn't getting the work. There's some pass protection issues which has led to more Zemir White than we should than we deserve.

[Jay Croucher]

Right, Connor?

[Matthew Berry]

Yep.

[Jay Croucher]

And I think the thing I'm most disappointed in is their line stinks at run blocking and I didn't expect that.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, they.

[Jay Croucher]

They didn't look this bad last year, so that's been a huge issue.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, that's a concern as well. Yeah, it's like, it's not a great stock to buy at the moment, but I'm buying Bengals stock. It's going too low. Like, it was one game. It was one game against the Vikings. Like, think about how bad the Lions looked in week one against the packers. And now everyone, like, now they might be the best team in football all of a sudden, two games later, like, a lot changes. Brian Flores defense is very confusing and one of the best defenses in the NFL. And I get that they play Denver this week, which is not an easy landing spot, but they're better than this. They were better than this in 2023 with Jake Browning. They will be better than they were against the Vikings.

[Matthew Berry]

And also for as. As brilliant as the Broncos defense is, you can run on Denver, you know, they've allowed at least 89 yards from scrimmage to a running back in all three games this season. They've allowed the seventh most receiving yards to running back so far this year. And so on the road at Denver, given the struggles of Jake Browning and that offensive line, my expectation here is that Chase Brown gets a massive workload trying to take the crowd out of it, trying to take some pressure off of Browning. And the fact is you can have success against the Denver Broncos running the ball. Brown obviously still gets a majority of the work. 83% of the Bengals running back touches have gone to Chase Brown so far this year. And think about last week when we were talking keep it open or close it out on Omarion Hampton. And I was like, no, suck it, haters. I am sticking with Omarion Hampton against the Broncos. He goes off against Denver. He got off the schneide. He did.

[Connor Rogers]

No, the haters, they sucked it.

[Matthew Berry]

Yes, they did.

[Connor Rogers]

He showed us.

[Jay Croucher]

That's a direct shot at you, the regulars, as he often does.

[Matthew Berry]

No, it's not. Not. It's not a direct shot at the regulars. It's a direct shot at the haters. You know, and by the way, I'm at a table with two of them. So we were on the Hampton, you.

[Connor Rogers]

Guys, you almost lost your way on Sunday with Hampton. You were like, ah, mecha buga.

[Jay Croucher]

Maybe you started to get nervous.

[Connor Rogers]

No, you're right.

[Matthew Berry]

Or die. All week.

[Jay Croucher]

We had to continue to prop you up. It's going to be fine.

[Matthew Berry]

This is all propaganda. Don't listen to it. Either way, Denver was able to get help. Amar and Hampton get off the schneid, and I think they will do so again with Chase Brown this week. I'm keeping it open on Chase Brown.

[Jay Croucher]

So Chase Brown stays open. We have one question coming in here on Chase Brown and it is would you trade Chase Brown from Nico Collins? That is from Bearded Yoshi.

[Matthew Berry]

Bearded Yoshi. Going back, getting back to back, you know, he's not a typical regular that shows up a lot but he brings the good stuff. He does.

[Jay Croucher]

He's more quantity over volume.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, he's a little bit of a sniper. Yes, I would. I think they're both rest of the season. I will tell you this like sort of how I do analysis like this. Just real quick back of the envelope math is without all schedules in front of me and everything like that is this like if we drafted today, if we decide to immediately have a draft, who goes first, Nico Collins or Chase Brown? And they go around the same range. So it's really like how do you need a running back more or. Or a wide receiver more there Nico's a wide receiver 1. Chase Brown still a running back one for me. Obviously not this week based on my rankings but ultimately just in terms of their workload, I have no problem making that trade. But I also don't think it's a rip off. Like I'm fine with either side of that trade.

[Jay Croucher]

I think I'd run away with Nico Collins in that trade.

[Connor Rogers]

I don't know how that's math. But yeah, it was a good explanation.

[Matthew Berry]

Back of that envelope math. I'm just saying like this, you know, it's a central phrase. No, it's a phrase but there's no numbers. It's a phrase.

[Jay Croucher]

It's the gravity equation.

[Matthew Berry]

In interstellar you say you would run away with Nico Collins. I. I get that the Bengals hate has gone too far and maybe that's also the case for the Texans. I understand.

[Jay Croucher]

But the offense is sunk.

[Matthew Berry]

No, I sunk. They have to get a little bit better again. Nico's coming off 100 yard touchdown with a touchdown game. Like Nico had a nice.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, no, I like Nico and the race. Yeah, I did the math.

[Matthew Berry]

I'm all in. I'd rather Nico's well, which is fair. But I mean I just, I don't know that there's. I still think ultimately Chase Brown finishes an RB one. I do like borderline ish.

[Connor Rogers]

Interruption.

[Jay Croucher]

I mean when you actually count the 12 running backs it's like oh yeah, it's not great.

[Matthew Berry]

No, that's what I'm saying.

[Jay Croucher]

Like we just talked about how bad.

[Matthew Berry]

Ashton Genti's been rest of the season. Would you rather have Ashton Genty or Chase Brown? I'll say Chase Brown.

[Jay Croucher]

I actually am buying into the Genti, like, takeoff soon. Like I said about Hampton last week, here's the problem.

[Connor Rogers]

It's like I'd rather have Marion Hampton the rest of the way than Chase Brown.

[Matthew Berry]

Oh, sure. That's why he was a ride or die. Yep.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, yeah, there's more. We get to 12. I don't want to list out 11 players, but. But yeah. One guy I wouldn't have over Chase Brown is Nick Chubb.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, the chubby leather daddy himself.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. The original sniped on the chubbler.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. So disappointing. Original chubbler, Nick Chubb.

[Jay Croucher]

He's got the Titans here, Jay. The matchup, not bad. But the snap share, starting to go in the wrong direction here, Jay.

[Connor Rogers]

It is going in the wrong direction, which makes sense. There are guys who have more upside on the roster. I will say with Nick Chubb doesn't look. He looks better than I thought he would coming into the season. It's not the old Nick Chubb, but the rumors of him, you know, running like an offensive lineman in training camp, those were very much overblown. But yeah, Tennessee, it's a good matchup. It's not like Jonathan Taylor had a great game against the Titans, but it's not like he was going for like seven yards a pop or anything. Like, he had to have one of the great touchdown runs to produce 40% of his yards. And then he got two goal line touchdown carries. So the Titans run deep for the most part, held up okay against jt and now you're getting a much easier match up against the. The Texans.

[Matthew Berry]

Right, But I'm. I'm concerned. I'm concerned about Woody Marks. Last week, Nick Chubb played one. One more snap than Woody Marks into the eye test. Woody Marks just looks like the more explosive, better player. To your point, Nick Chubb doesn't look as bad as he did last year, but he doesn't look all the way. Somewhere in between, you know, peak Nick Chubb and then what we saw last year. And so, yeah, mid chub. Mid chub.

[Connor Rogers]

Mid chub.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, exactly. Semi Chubb.

[Jay Croucher]

Not full chubby.

[Matthew Berry]

Not a full chub. Semi chubby.

[Connor Rogers]

He's definitely not 100% chubby.

[Matthew Berry]

No, no, no. He's definitely not 100%. He's not a full chub.

[Jay Croucher]

Pete's producing. We can say whatever we want. That's the best part. If Stephen was here, we'd actually follow the guidelines.

[Matthew Berry]

Very upset. He'd be very upset. But at any rate, the other thing about one of the reasons why we think he is just sort of a semi Chub. Is he just not getting a full workload, under 15 touches in all three games this season, Woody Marks has continued to get more work. So Chubb, who scored the touchdown against Tampa Bay, but there's rumors that basically the Buccaneers let him score. They haven't confirmed that, but if you watch that play, it felt like they, you know, kind of like, oh, I missed you. You know, I tried to tackle you. So, so yes, you know, the presence of a Woody is concerning for the Chub.

[Jay Croucher]

There you go.

[Connor Rogers]

There you go.

[Jay Croucher]

Daniel Sullivan. Chub or a tight end in my flex. His options are Hawkinson and Kraft. I don't even think that's close. Matthew. Yeah, the Craftler.

[Matthew Berry]

You go the. Yeah, the craft daddy. The tuck daddy. The tuckler.

[Connor Rogers]

P.J.

[Matthew Berry]

Tucker. Yeah, exactly. Yes.

[Connor Rogers]

Or Hawkinson.

[Jay Croucher]

If you didn't have craft, I'd play Hawkinson.

[Matthew Berry]

Anyway, I'm closing out on Nick Job. I'm running back 30 this week. It's just he's going to need a touchdown to pay off. He's not involved in the passing game. It's not an offense that I have a lot of confidence in overall. So basically, if you start Nick Chubb, you're going to need him to fall into the end zone, which he always can again. But the Titans have, they've tightened up a little bit. They're, yeah, they're, they're, they're. It feels like they're playing hard for their coach this year.

[Jay Croucher]

Right after he makes the most insane decisions on the sideline over and over again. They have not checked out.

[Connor Rogers]

Field goal sequence at the end of the first half was an all time disgrace.

[Matthew Berry]

I know I'm with you.

[Connor Rogers]

Have a meeting with the owner after that one. That's a catastrophe.

[Jay Croucher]

Let's go to the wide receivers here, guys. Lad McConkey's got the Giants, believe it or not. Matthew, two straight weeks with single digit fantasy points for the Gladiator. But I don't think it's time to give up on this one yet. Great matchup.

[Matthew Berry]

I think it is a great matchup against the Giants who have allowed the second most fantasy points to wide receivers this year. Second most receptions, second most receiving yards. Like pick a stat, the Giants are bad, especially in the secondary. And so lad McConkey, who has had a slow start of the season, he's been under 10 fantasy points in consecutive games. But yet you think about last year, he never had three straight games with single digit fantasy points. I don't think he starts now. I'm at wide receiver 23, low end, wide receiver 2, high end, wide receiver 3. I'm keeping it open on lad McConkey. I think it's McConculous, the lack of production. I think that changes a little bit. Yeah, you heard me.

[Connor Rogers]

Does make sense.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, it does.

[Connor Rogers]

Again, bad math on the.

[Matthew Berry]

Don't. Don't squint too hard at it. Just let it go.

[Connor Rogers]

Blurred off like an air balloon of meaninglessness. Would you rather have Kanath Allen than Ladd McConkey the rest of the way?

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Jay Croucher]

No. I think it's gonna be a massive week for Ladd. Andrew Phillips, who was a good rookie for the Giants last year, is their slot corner. He's had a tough go of it lately. That's a great matchup for McConkey. I think this is the week.

[Matthew Berry]

Yep.

[Connor Rogers]

Follow on, Lad. This might be the last time to.

[Jay Croucher]

Get him at his age. Like, he's a little more likely to get banged up at some point.

[Connor Rogers]

So when he was young, he got hurt all the time.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. Yeah, for sure.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah. So I'd roll with McConkey. No worries there on that one. Next one, though, a lot more difficult or maybe easy. Calvin Ridley.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, the Riddler.

[Jay Croucher]

The Riddler. I mean, this is truly solved. Yeah, it's. It's not his offense in terms of target share anymore or productivity. Yeah, it's epic IO manor time.

[Matthew Berry]

It really is. So under 30 yards in two of three games, averaging under 40 receiving yards per game. Calvin Ridley, like, there's not a stat that you can point to. You're like, well, maybe there's this. Like his utilization score has decreased every single week. There's one of the argument. One of the pro Calvin Ridley arguments was like, just massive target share. And yet they're. Because of the success of I.O. manor and the run game. And we're seeing some Chigaconquo as well in this passing offense. Just Calvin Ridley, who is not getting the target share we expected, and when he is getting the targets, isn't always coming down with it. He has caught only 30, 38% of his targets this year. So under 40% of the passes that are going to Calvin Ridley, he's not coming down with him. And maybe it's Cam Ward's inaccuracy, maybe it's concentration on. On Cal Ridley, but whatever it is, it's just not turning into fantasy production. And so I'm at wide receiver 37. I'm closing it out for a Titans team that has the lowest implied team total in week number Four. Yep.

[Connor Rogers]

It's not like the comments from Brian Callahan. They need to build up his confidence. He's like 31 years old or something. Calvin Ridley, like this is talking about him like he's a rookie who needs confidence. So I would say with Ridley, the way to look at him is that his median outcome now is pretty bad, but he still has some high end upside. Like there is still. He could snap out of it. So if you're struggling. Oh, and three team like Matthews, I'd be trying to trade someone like Calvin Ridley because it's not going to get any worse and there's still scope for him to break out to the guy that we thought he would. But I think that certainly more than 50% chance that's not going to happen.

[Matthew Berry]

I just need you to do me a favor. Both of you to do me a favor.

[Jay Croucher]

Okay.

[Matthew Berry]

My team's own three.

[Connor Rogers]

Yes.

[Matthew Berry]

Asked and answered. Understood.

[Connor Rogers]

No wins.

[Jay Croucher]

Last place.

[Matthew Berry]

I'm in last, 100%. A lot of injuries. Last maybe O. Barry. No, no, no, no, no. But you can refer to my own three team. But when you do you, you call me champ. Because until the, until there's a new champion crowned in our league, I am still your defending champion. Your two time back to back champion. So just never forget that, either of you. But it's very upsetting because last night my wife and I went out to dinner. We went out to dinner, we went at one of our favorite restaurants in Connecticut, Cafe Routier. Shout out to my friends over at Cafe Routier. And the manager, Randy comes over to me and he goes, oh, and three, huh? I swear to God. I swear to God. You know, listen, Randy, you drink free. Oh my God.

[Jay Croucher]

Sorry. Jackson dart. You're off the board.

[Matthew Berry]

Shout out. Shout out. Randy Hodge, wherever you're at, it's, it's fine. Randy's a Falcons fan, so he's got his own pain. So you know, like whatever. But, but yeah, it's like it's, it's not, it's going beyond this.

[Jay Croucher]

No, no, the public knows.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. To which and by, to which my wife goes, wait, you're owing three? Yeah. I'm like, I hadn't brought this up to her yet, you know. And so it's, it was, it was a tough night in the Berry household.

[Jay Croucher]

Regular Rudy in the chat says, call me champ. He screams as the boat sinks further. That's very good. Eventually it'll be all the way underwater.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Jay Croucher]

Losing streak.

[Matthew Berry]

That's pretty much what in that, what Leo DiCaprio said on the Titanic. Winslet probably champ.

[Connor Rogers]

Definitely room on that board for Leo as well. Big hog.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, it's very. Yeah, I have real issues with the ending. The ending.

[Jay Croucher]

Well, it's very true story, so I don't blame you. Jameson Williams is our next wide receiver. He's got that.

[Connor Rogers]

You wanted the boat not to sink.

[Matthew Berry]

I wanted. I didn't want Leo to die. Leo should have gotten on the. Why did he not get on the door? You know, that's all I'm saying. He's selfless, but there was room enough.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

Was he selfless or was Kate Winslet selfish?

[Jay Croucher]

It was.

[Matthew Berry]

I argue she was selfish.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. Yeah. Not a great performance from Kate Winslet there. You give Leo a shot.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

Well, yeah, she lived and he didn't.

[Matthew Berry]

So now randomly though, I will just say as long as we're on the subject later. No, no. Jay is drawing me like one of his French girls. So just so you know, that's happening later today.

[Connor Rogers]

Typical Wednesday. Yeah, yeah.

[Jay Croucher]

Wednesday is just. This was supposed to be my day off. Now I know why I was asked right before the season for it not to be.

[Matthew Berry]

Pete has to fill out so many HR forms after everyone's explaining himself.

[Jay Croucher]

He's just sitting in office waiting again. He has his own chair.

[Matthew Berry]

He's there.

[Connor Rogers]

So much Pete left after the Chase Brown conversation. He's not here anymore.

[Jay Croucher]

Our last wide receiver is Jameson Williams. He's up against the Browns. Lions are eight and a half point favorites right now. And right now, Jay, not a great target share for Jameson Williams.

[Connor Rogers]

No. There were all these rumors of this Jameson Williams breakout. Was it a renaissance if you never really.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. Like two games. Yeah. No, you have to. Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

This offense is now very clear. They're going to run the ball and that is their identity. And then they're going to throw it to Monroe St. Brown and then sometimes Samuel Porter. And it feels like Jameson Williams will be third in the pecking order. He's still going to be the deep ball guy, but the idea that he was going to really expand his route tree and, you know, split more targets with a Monroe St. Brown, I think that has been disproven through the first three weeks. So I don't really want any part of him against this defense.

[Matthew Berry]

That's exactly right. I mean, so he's not getting the usage. Under a 15% target share in all three games so far this season. Has yet to see a red zone target. Has yet to see an end zone target this year. And if you're the Lions, why are you Going to go away with what's working so well from the Montgomery and Gibbs obviously looked awesome on Monday night against the Ravens, Browns have allowed the 8th fewest receiving yards to opposing wide receivers. I have Jameson Williams at wide receiver 39 this week, so I'm, I'm closing it out. There's enough volume from on Ross St. Brown, and because the tight end position is so poor, you know, Laporta is getting enough sort of scraps to keep him relevant. But, like, it just. There's always the chance with Jameson Williams because of his speed that it gets deep for one. But that's what you're banking on. Like, you're banking on one play and it just against the Browns, I don't know that it's a great bet. I would, but I'm closing it out on Jameis and Williams. So far in week four, our last.

[Jay Croucher]

Player on the tab here, Travis Kelce against the Ravens, hasn't really given you the production you'd hope for so far, but it feels like Matthew, with the landscape of the position, you're probably still starting him.

[Matthew Berry]

It's the same point I was making with Laporta. Right. I mean, like, so you're like, well, it's been a slow start to the season for Travis Kelsey. You're like, yeah, I get it, man. And yet through three games, he's a top 12 tight end. On a points per game basis, he's actually tight end 12. And I think that more speaks to the lack of production at the position than what Kelsey has done through three games. But each of the last two games, he's had a 20% target share and the Ravens very quietly have allowed the second most yards to opposing tight ends. And so I'm a tight in eight this week. I'm keeping it open on Travis Kelce. I just don't know, maybe a grab Joanne Johnson or Hunter Henry off the. Off the waiver wire. But generally speaking, if you used an early pick on Travis Kelce, chances are you don't have a better option. I'm keeping it open. Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

So good that Joanne Johnson is ranked ahead of Travis Kelsey, Sam LaPorter and TJ Hawkinson. Yeah, he's. He's been an absolute monster and gobbling up targets. Joanne Johnson.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. Maybe we should call him the Gobbler. Yeah, well, yeah, because he gobbles up targets.

[Connor Rogers]

Sure. So do a lot of pass catchers in the NFL.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, he's one of the Gobblers. Yeah, he's a. He's not the Gobbler.

[Connor Rogers]

He's A Gobbler indefinite article.

[Jay Croucher]

Let me throw something at you guys. Do you think when they get Xavier Worthy back. And here we go, right? This is from regular Rudy. This is kind of the direction I was going. Does Kelsey get better when some of these receivers are back on the field or does it actually have the inverse effect?

[Matthew Berry]

I think he gets better because. Yeah, it's. Well, not just that, but like if you look at sort of when Rasheed Rice was out there and I understand, like sometimes it's a little bit. I'm going to fence it a little bit here, but give me a second to explain. Like Rishi Rice and not with Tycon Thornton or even I think Xavier Worthy for the most part. But Rishi Rice and Travis Kelsey basically have the same route tree Kelsey, they run a lot of the stuff in the middle of the field. Obviously the deep stuff. He does. Kelsey doesn't do that. Rice does. But like, and that frees people up. And so you don't often see a big Rice game and a big Kelce game. It's usually one or the other. But I do think that when there are more options that it's going to open things up for Kelsey because it's not like he's been getting a massive target share. You know, like the whole. The whole passing offense is a little off kilter. And I think once they have the normal pieces they expected, once they have Worthy back and Rice back, then maybe Mahomes settles in a little bit. And then Mahomes is just so good at finding Kelsey where he needs to, like in the. In the middle of the field, in the red zone, in the green area. Like, so I just sort of. Yes, I think. I think there will. There may be some inconsistency there, but I think Kelsey fantasy wise overall gets better when this offense looks more like what they expected in the preseason.

[Connor Rogers]

You think Mahomes is the same level of player he was three years ago?

[Jay Croucher]

I think he's off on the deep throws. That's the difference. I think that one. The mobility this year looks back to what he was. But the consistent deep passing is not the same. There's just no way around it. And maybe that's partially the skilled talent.

[Connor Rogers]

Compared to what he had with missing on throws.

[Jay Croucher]

But he misses. He misses more throws now than you saw him miss a couple years ago.

[Matthew Berry]

He does. And I think that's. I think there's a couple reasons. I mean, one is this. Sometimes you miss throws, right? Even Patrick Mahomes is human sometimes. Secondly, I think it's just familiarity with those guys. Like yes, Hollywood Brown was on this team last year but didn't play very much. Right. He was injured for much of it. Tyquan Thornton's new to the team and so his main deep threats are guys that he's just sort of. He doesn't have a long history with. Right. And then the third part, by the way, is he's under pressure like the offensive line has not been as you know. He's it's still waiting to gel, I think. Like. And so I think that's some of it as well where he's, he's getting hurried a little bit in some cases.

[Jay Croucher]

To recap recap Keep it open or close it out. Jordan Love is a top 10 play this week at quarterback. QB 9 Open Ash and Genty keep believing RB 15 he's got a good matchup against the Bears, so he's an open as is Chase Brown just stays open at RB22 against the Broncos. Nick Chubb is a close at RB30 kind of touchdown dependent as he's losing share to Woody Marks. Lad McConkey, wide receiver 23 Stay open. Good matchup against the Giants. Calvin Ridley is a close at wide receiver 37, as is Jameson Williams against that tough Browns defense. At wide receiver 39. Travis Kelce is an open more because it's most likely you don't have a better option at tight end. Rather than expecting a huge week out of Kelsey, we're going to take our first break. When we're back, we're going on some blind dates. We're going to look at a couple different players, mystery players, right after this.

[Matthew Berry]

Come on, Jay, draw me like one of your French girls.

[Jay Croucher]

Okay?

[Matthew Berry]

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[Connor Rogers]

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[Jay Croucher]

Best network because they did.

[Connor Rogers]

But now the best mobile network in the US is T Mobile. T Mobile's network has the most advanced 5G with more towers and their signal reaches further than ever. So you can text and insta talk and say you won't believe where I am.

[Matthew Berry]

T Mobile has the best mobile Network in the US based on analysis by Ookla of Speedtest Intelligence data 1H2025CT mobile.comnetwork.

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[Jay Croucher]

Seeing three games worth of sample size for DK and how teams are guarding against him.

[Matthew Berry]

What ways can you can you be.

[Jay Croucher]

Creative and attempt to get him the.

[Matthew Berry]

Ball like you did in week one.

[Jay Croucher]

For instance, when Sauce wasn't on him to get him in running cash situations?

[Matthew Berry]

I don't have any reservations about our ability to get DK the ball. If people want to allocate schematics to multiple people to him, that's why it's a team game.

[Sponsor/Advertiser]

He's doing a lot of things well.

[Matthew Berry]

Really comfortable with the trajectory of our divisional labor. In that space, guys like Calvin Austin are going to have opportunities to make plays and you seen that already in a short period of time. And so it's just about the general collective growth and development needs to continue.

[Jay Croucher]

Get personalized fantasy football insights based on your league settings. With Fantasy Life plus, your league is unique. Your advice should be too. Just head to FantasyLife.com and use code ROTO20 for 20% off.

[Matthew Berry]

Or you can use code J20 Matthew 20 or Connor 20 J still in the lead.

[Connor Rogers]

Yes.

[Jay Croucher]

Shortest code.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, exactly. Smart 20.

[Connor Rogers]

One of the best codes.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. Other people can't believe how good a code it is. One of the greatest codes that ever lived. It's amazing. Other codes are jealous of that code's greatness. J20, but also Matthew 20, Connor 20 or Roto [e-mail] it really is a fantastic tool that helps you with start sit waiver advice. Everything you could possibly need, including utilization. Right. What you have. Dynasty. You see there. DFS helps you with your bets as well. Jay, I will tell you, fantasy life did not say put a lot of money on the Saints to make the playoffs. Yeah, exactly. So you see here, like here I want to compare some players. What's the utilization of DK Metcalf? And so you sit there and you see, all right, we're going to, we're going to find the Steelers. We're going to go to DK Metcalf. We're looking at their wide receivers, the tight ends, all their pass catchers. Can I, can I look at this? It's all sortable based on position. Okay, we got Metcalf, Calvin Austin, John Smith, friarmouth. Oh, look at that. Their utilization score, which you talked about, proprietary to Fantasy Life. But here's what. Their routes, their targets per routes run. You know, their, their rush attempts, their, their rush attempts of 15 yards or more. Like, you know how many snaps they play in the two minute drill. Like it's, it goes really deep. It's unbelievable in terms of everything you could possibly want to know in like 10 things that you haven't even thought about. It's all right there for every player, every game, every snap. FantasyLife.com Again, use promo code Matthew 20 or I suppose J20 or Connor 20 or Rota 20.

[Jay Croucher]

New segment, Matthew.

[Matthew Berry]

Yes, sir.

[Jay Croucher]

Which is perfect for utilization. Blind date.

[Matthew Berry]

Oh, I like this.

[Jay Croucher]

Yes, well, you're even in charge. That's the best part.

[Matthew Berry]

Even better. All right, guys, so let's do this. So I'm going to talk to you about a running back here. So blind date. I'm going to show you some stats without telling you the name of this player. Of course, people always go to bars for their blind dates, right? And so the idea here is this something. Are you looking for a second date here? Would you like to go out again with this particular running back that's playing 80% of the snaps is top 12. A team designed rush rate, but doesn't have a big target share, so not really involved in the passing game. Top 12 in utilization score. That's something that's been used a lot. But again, 23rd in fantasy points per game. So this running back's averaging to date only 12 fantasy points per game. But playing a lot of snaps gets a big part of the designed rush rate as well. None of all in the passing game. Are we interested? First off, do you know who this player is?

[Jay Croucher]

Is it Derrick Henry?

[Matthew Berry]

Okay, it's not Derrick Henry.

[Connor Rogers]

So do Marion Hampton.

[Matthew Berry]

It's not Amarian Hampton, but it's a good guess. Are you interested in this player at all?

[Jay Croucher]

I am. Because of the utilization in the design run game, it feels like they have a good floor. If you're looking for like an RB3.

[Connor Rogers]

RB2, I think that for the most part what you're looking at even this early in the season is you're looking more at the underlying utilization as opposed to the raw fantasy points per game because they can be influenced by a single breakaway run.

[Matthew Berry]

Yes.

[Connor Rogers]

Or touchdowns which are a bit more fluky week to week for some players. So yeah.

[Jay Croucher]

Also 80% offensive snaps.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Jay Croucher]

A lot of running backs.

[Matthew Berry]

So both those really good guesses. But the answer is Alvin Camara.

[Connor Rogers]

Oh, I would like to say.

[Matthew Berry]

Well, sure. But you know, the issue with with Camara is that target share he just like the answer on surprise has always been this is a guy that has a high floor that always in double digits in terms of target share throughout his queries has been this PPR cheat code. And now a lot of those shorter routes are now going to like Chris Olave.

[Jay Croucher]

The chat is shocked by the way like shocked as are we. I wouldn't have got this, obviously.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. Shout out to producer Pete and producer Damien who put this together. You're right. I actually I'm probably more in on him than not just because again because of the usage. But I don't think the target share is that much of a outlier. I mean I really think under Spencer Rattler, as long as a lobby and Rasheed Shahid are healthy, like I just don't think he's getting the dump offs. Rattler is more, you know, ratty ice is more prone to chuck it deep than he is to sort of dump it off the way they were last year.

[Connor Rogers]

Kellen Morstein didn't throw the running back last year.

[Matthew Berry]

No.

[Connor Rogers]

So maybe this is just part of his way.

[Matthew Berry]

It is. But. But you said running back three and I think that's right. I think we just have to reset our expectations for Camaro because he was drafted with the expectation that it'd be Like a mid tier RB2. I think he's much more of a flex play because of the lack of passing game usage. All right, let's go to the next running back here and this running back as you see it right there. So he is, he's not playing a ton of snaps, right? He is outside the top 20 in terms of offensive snapshot attempts. He's 15th. However, in team designed rush attempts. He's got a 10% team target share which is, you know, barely inside the top 30. But he's top 12 in utilization. Score. He's got 81. He does, however, score a lot of fantasy points. He's third right now in fantasy points at almost 23 a game.

[Jay Croucher]

This is incredibly difficult.

[Matthew Berry]

I feel like Jay knows who this is.

[Connor Rogers]

You do? Well, I know that the top three running backs are Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey and James Cook. McCaffrey gets more than a 10% target share and Jonathan Taylor plays more than 57% of the snap. So it has to be James Cook, right?

[Matthew Berry]

Yes, it is 100%. It is.

[Jay Croucher]

Snap race through me on that one.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, I mean that's the thing. But this is what we talked about in the preseason. He's not going to be involved in the passing game. He's not going to be in like he's like previous last year he played less than 50% of the snaps. Okay. So now he's playing less than 60% of the snapshot. So the anti James Cook argument that I made, I raised my hand, that I made was like, well, he's got to score the touchdowns, he's got to continue the insane touchdown rate that he had last year to keep up his value. But I would argue that's he has done that obviously. And Jay, you've made this point a lot and I think it's a really good one, which is that the Bills have such an easy schedule that they're going to be in positive game script so often this year and they're to going and Cook looks awesome. And so they, they have continued to use him in that goal to go rushing attempt, it doesn't seem like they're using Josh Allen as much in that role. So weirdly, even though all the underlying numbers say like, hey, this is a little bit fluky, I weirdly don't think it is because of how the Bills are set up this season and their, their offense and their schedule.

[Jay Croucher]

Right. He's the rare running back that he doesn't need that snap rate because of just how the rate they score at is utterly Ridiculous. And then also when they get into blowout scripts and and they asked Josh Allen to like not do a lot well then James Cook obviously gets even more productive.

[Matthew Berry]

Are you selling high, Jay, on this or no?

[Connor Rogers]

I think I. Well, I mean it depends.

[Matthew Berry]

He's the number three running back.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. So if I can get like I would rather still rather have like Bijan Robinson and saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey like those guys. So I would be trading James Cook for a top five running back. But he might be like six or seven. Like he's on legit RB1 the rest of the way.

[Matthew Berry]

Yes.

[Connor Rogers]

One, because he's very good and he's in great offense. And to just that schedule Bill's over under is like 13 and a half just to the over. Like the most frequently occurring outcome might be on 14 and 3. So there's going to be a lot of touchdowns.

[Matthew Berry]

Let's go to. We're going to move on to a wide receiver here. And so this is a wide receiver who's top five in target share. Top three in end zone target share. You know, on. On third and fourth downs are looking for him a lot as well. Seventh in utilization score. And he's a top 15 fantasy wide receiver. Interested in this guy? Do you think so? Like it feels like the fantasy points per game is nice. 13th, but all the underlying numbers are higher.

[Jay Croucher]

The usage is amazing.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Jay Croucher]

Where yes, I am highly interested. Is this Nico Collins?

[Matthew Berry]

It's not. It's a good guess, but it's not Nico Collins. Jay Pete throwing in game show sound effects.

[Connor Rogers]

I know. Pizza Giants fan. So Malik neighbors also a good guess.

[Matthew Berry]

It's not, but it is two. You guessed two alpha wide receivers. You're right. It's actually Devontae Adams. And I think the surprising thing on Adams is because so many people like, well PUK is the alpha player and everything like that. But I don't think they realize that it's literally just those two guys.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

And that there's enough target share and enough volume for both those guys that feel like we talked about this in the preseason that like Sean McVay's offenses have supported, you know, cup and Nicole. We've seen it multiple times over the years. It throws enough, especially when, you know, when Stafford's healthy to support two fantasy wide receivers. So people might just be thinking, oh hey Adams, like he's the number two to Puka. Like he's an elite wide receiver one. It just. So is the other guy on his team.

[Connor Rogers]

So what's interesting to Me about the Rams, Conor, is that so the past two years in terms of pass rate over expectation, the rams thing with 24th and 21st, so in terms they don't throw the ball that much over. Sean McVeigh wants to run the ball this year, so far their 8th and I wonder if that's a product of the fact that they have two elite wide receivers and that they do want to throw the ball or whether it's just three weeks and it's a little bit noisy because if they actually are going to throw the ball a ton, it's just these two guys, the third guys like Jordan Winnington, like there's no third guy really. It's like Kyron's doing a ton out of the backfield either. So if that's the case, then Devonte could be a legitimate wide receiver and.

[Jay Croucher]

Stafford missed him a couple of times on Sunday. Yeah, I think you're right. I think it's funneled through two wide receivers in a pass heavy offense.

[Connor Rogers]

Do you think he wants to throw this much though, McVeigh?

[Jay Croucher]

I think it's at least closer to 15th rather than 24th.

[Connor Rogers]

Yep.

[Jay Croucher]

Yes.

[Matthew Berry]

Devonte Adams, throughout his career, wherever he has played, whether it's Green Bay, the Raiders, with the jets, he has always earned basically a 30% target share. He's always been a massive target earner wherever he goes. And so the fact that he's at 31% through three games is not shocking to me, even though he's opposite Puka Nakua who is also a massive target share earner. But it's just like they don't really have a tight end. They don't really have a third wide receiver. Like it's those two guys is the.

[Connor Rogers]

Way I think about their offense is imagine that the Eagles threw the ball a ton and there was no Dallas got it. Yeah, that's basically it, right? AJ Brown, Devontae Smith and then. And also imagine that, yeah, instead of Saquon Barkley, you have Kyron Williams. So not quite as much emphasis on the run game. So it's a very stream. It's maybe the most streamlined passing game in the entire league.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, especially because by the way, Stafford's not a threat to Lane, at least in the Eagles. Hertz can always run it as well. He's a weapon. Stafford is never going to run. And so there's that. Let's go to the next wide receiver here as well. I think this is interesting. So in terms of team target share, he's outside the top 30 and he's somebody that obviously does not go deep. His, you know, he's tied for 71st in air yards share but they use a lot of play action with him. He's top 12 in play action targets. He's borderline. He's top 30. He's just, just barely top 30 in terms of utilization score with 66. But he is 12th in fantasy points per game. So he is producing despite a lack of usage there as well. We interested in this wide receiver first off, Any guesses?

[Jay Croucher]

Well, the air yards aspect feels like a Miami Dolphin right off the gate. If it's not, this is the kind of offense that they typically play in.

[Matthew Berry]

So.

[Jay Croucher]

But what has me screwed up is the fact that the utilization score because the Dolphins, they utilize their guys at a higher rate. It's not a guy's at a higher rate. That's why I would say it's not them.

[Matthew Berry]

It's not a Miami Dolphin team that.

[Connor Rogers]

Uses a lot of play action underneath stuff. Is it an Indianapolis Colt?

[Matthew Berry]

Yes sir, it is. Good job, Jay Croucher.

[Connor Rogers]

Then it would have to be. So Pierce is too deep down to. So it has to be Michael Pittman.

[Matthew Berry]

Because he's indeed Michael Pittman. Look at you, Jay Croucher. That is well done. Really well done. And so the argument here is like are you Jay, you're crushing at this. And I thought you might get this one again because.

[Connor Rogers]

Listen, I mean I.

[Matthew Berry]

Have say sales guy always have been, always 100%. But the question is, can the production continue? Because again they're not throwing stuff deep. Right. You know, to him when they do it is Alec Pierce, you know, and maybe Mitchell gets in the mix there. So he's not playing a ton but like he has been productive. I'm sort of buying this because I think it's more, I don't know that he finishes 12th, but you think about where he was drafted outside the top 40 of wide receivers. So there's already a profit on Pittman and as we've talked about, we're believers in Daniel Jones in this offense and Pittman's a good wide receiver. Again, he's more of a floor guy than an upside guy. So I don't know that He's a top 12 wide receiver, but I bet you he finishes the year as a.

[Jay Croucher]

Top 25ish guy, which is value like you just said.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, I, I'm actually not buying it so much and it's for a niche reason now because I'm a deep cut Colts guy. I'm a strange Colts opinions like oh, Javeris Ward's back. He's right back and forth. The reason why is that I think Alec Pierce might be the best wide receiver on this team. On what he's shown in the first three weeks. He looks like a new player. Like he's not just a deep ball specialist. Now he's getting stuff over the middle.

[Jay Croucher]

Right.

[Connor Rogers]

His hands look amazing. Now he's got concussed for the third time in his career and he might miss this week, and that's a concern with him. But to me, he looks like the best. I mean, Tyler Warren as well. That's the other issue is that Tyler Warren's got to take a lot of the short.

[Matthew Berry]

And I always like Josh Downs, and.

[Jay Croucher]

Their success is taken away from Josh Downs. That's how good Pierce has been, I think.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, I don't think he's going to be this level of play going for, but I think very high floor. What? Locked in, high end, wide receiver three. That type of range.

[Matthew Berry]

I just said wide receiver 25. That's. That's. We're. We're on the same page here. I agree with you on. On Pierce. Nessie says Jay's a robot. Confirmed. That is. Yeah. Robot J. Yeah. By the way, not just. Not just his mind, but also the lack of a heart or soul. When you think about it, he truly is a robot.

[Connor Rogers]

Godless.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, yeah. Soulless, heartless. You are. You are robotic in all ways and means.

[Connor Rogers]

Aij.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. Aij.

[Connor Rogers]

Yes.

[Matthew Berry]

I like that.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. Good.

[Connor Rogers]

Very good at predicting.

[Matthew Berry]

All right, last one. All right, last one. Let's go. Just real quickly, this is a tight end who's, you know, top six in target share, team air yard share. He is first end zone, target share six. His utilization is second, but he's a top three fantasy tight end. Do you think this can continue or is it just that the position is so weak that, you know, one good.

[Jay Croucher]

Game skews all of this utilization is second.

[Connor Rogers]

Sir. The thing that makes it interesting is that the air yards are so deep, so it's not going to be a guy who's getting short stuff over the middle.

[Jay Croucher]

It's not John Smith is what you're saying.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. So my guess would be Joanne Johnson.

[Matthew Berry]

It is not Joanne Johnson, but that is a good guess.

[Jay Croucher]

Has to be a top guy. I'm going to say it is Tucker.

[Matthew Berry]

Kraft, also a good guess. It is Hunter Henry of your. Of the Patriots.

[Jay Croucher]

How one makes you that one way.

[Matthew Berry]

That's exactly right. That's. That's. Yeah. You know, goodness. A longtime favorite of the Happy hour crew.

[Connor Rogers]

The most frequent mentioned name in the.

[Matthew Berry]

History of the show, Kenyon Drew.

[Jay Croucher]

Well, he's not on waivers anymore because he's too good now.

[Matthew Berry]

He is too good. I don't know that I buy all the eight skewed by the huge. It's skewed by the huge game.

[Jay Croucher]

Two touchdowns, 90 plus yards.

[Matthew Berry]

Like so it's skewed. But I buy this in this sense. Like, I think he's a tight end one. I think he's a top title for the season because no one else is a mer. Like I think the Patriots passing game is somewhat competent under Drake May and Josh McDaniels. And whether it's. Whether it's Diggs or Kyle Williams or Case on Booty, like no one's really emerged to be a massive target earner on that team. And Henry is the one constant. I mean, again, the utilization score. He's out there on every play. Like Austin Hooper is not a thing this year for them. No. In the passing game.

[Jay Croucher]

Right.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

I think he's comparable to like Tucker Croft where he's surrounded by these wide receivers who are fine and do different things, but he might be actually the hub of the offense. Very strange.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Jay Croucher]

This is also now the second year of it. Like Drake, May is telling you who he trusts and he's going to him. So yeah, I agree, Matthew, that he is a tight end one the entire year. The bar is low to be there, but he's cleared it for sure.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, I mean, Henry was on the preseason love list and one of the things we talked about, and I think this is in 100 facts too, is just how much Josh McDaniels has used tight ends over his career as a play caller. And prior to this year, the best year of Hunter Henry's career was with Josh McDaniels calling the plays. And so obviously there's a connection between him and Drake. Maybe before we go to break real quickly, just want to take a moment here on behalf of everyone here at Fantasy Football Happy Hour to send our condolences. Sad day yesterday when Rudy Johnson, the former Cincinnati Bengals running back and a stalwart of fantasy pool lineups for a long time, it was announced that he passed away three straight seasons with over 1400 yards and 12 touchdowns. He was a top 15 fantasy running back during that time frame on a points per game basis. And so I know I had Rudy on a number of teams and so he was 45. So on behalf of all of us here at Fantasy Football Happy Hour and honestly, the Fantasy community. We send our love to Rudy's family and his many fans. We'll be right back.

[Connor Rogers]

For years, everyone thought Verizon had the.

[Jay Croucher]

Best network because they did.

[Connor Rogers]

But now the best mobile network in the US is T Mobile. T Mobile's network has the most advanced 5G with more towers and their signal reaches further than ever. So you can text an insta talk and say, you won't believe where I am.

[Matthew Berry]

T Mobile has the best mobile Network in the US based on analysis by Ookla of speed test intelligence data 1H2025CT.

[Jeff Bridges]

Mobile.Com network hey there, it's Katie Nolan, host of Casuals, the sports podcast where we don't care how much you know about sports, we're just happy that you're here. Every week I hang out with some of my good friends to discuss the biggest stories across sports and entertainment, but in a way that's like fun and not boring. Want to know Sue Bird's favorite Diana Taurasi story? Or how heavy the Larry o' Brien trophy is? Or even what baseball team is right for you based on your moon sign we got you. Listen to Casuals every Tuesday and Thursday on the SiriusXM app or wherever you get your podcasts. Bye.

[Connor Rogers]

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[Jay Croucher]

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[Matthew Berry]

Giraffe King Sportsbook Whose crown is it? Oh, it's mine. Who knew?

[Jay Croucher]

Back to the futures. Jay, what do you got in the crystal ball?

[Connor Rogers]

I'll stick with the Colts theme. I'll take Jonathan Saylor Offensive Player of the Year. I know he's the favorite at +450 but never comes off the field run heavy offense. I think that Taylor him staying healthy times the Colts making the playoffs. I make that about a 50% chance. I think it's a 50% chance to win the award if that comes home. So I think you should be plus 300.

[Jay Croucher]

Matthew.

[Matthew Berry]

I'm going with Baker Mayfield to win MVP at plus 1800. Look, Tristan Wirfs and Chris Godwin have yet to play this season. Mike Evans can be out for the next three to four weeks. And yet they're still 3. 0. They're playing at home to Philadelphia this weekend. Baker Mayfield out. Duels. Jalen hurts to go to4.0 with with less than 100% of a crew. I think he's got a real shot. The Buccaneers look awesome and it's all Baker.

[Jay Croucher]

Give me Quinton Judkins to steal. Offensive rookie of the year. It's +2,000. I think this is the best price you're going to get. I understand the schedule is hard, but this is the workhorse back of a Browns team that wants to run the football and there'll be a time where they have a rookie quarterback starting and they'll run the ball even more. Judkins, quite frankly, has looked like the best rookie running back in a very short span of time. Him and Amarian Hampton to me. So give me the value of Judkins.

[Matthew Berry]

No, like, I like it.

[Connor Rogers]

I think that the thing with Joggins and the reason why people were turned off of it by him was like, oh, game script. We're going against the Browns.

[Jay Croucher]

I don't care.

[Connor Rogers]

Game script with defense is going to be going that much against the Browns. They're going to be in close again.

[Jay Croucher]

The field is bizarre. Like it's just wide open field. So take a long shot.

[Connor Rogers]

Don't bother.

[Matthew Berry]

We said in this preseason the Browns offense is going to be amazing, but it's going to be competent. You know what I mean? Like two time coach of the year. Yeah, people don't know that. No, he is. It's a decent offense. All right, listen, it's closing time. You don't have to go, but you can't stay here. For Jay and Connor, I'm Matthew. We'll see you tomorrow for Love Hate Day. Peace out.

[Jeff Bridges]

Hey there, it's Katie Nolan, host of Casuals, the sports podcast where we don't care how much you know about sports. We're just happy that you're here. Every week I hang out with some of my good friends to discuss the biggest stories across sports and entertainment. But in a way that's like fun and not boring. Want to know Sue Bird's favorite Diana Taurasi story? Or how heavy the Larry o' Brien trophy is? Or even what baseball team is right for you based on your moon sign? We got you listen to Casuals every Tuesday and Thursday on the SiriusXM app or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Matthew Berry]

Bye.

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