← Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry
Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry
Week 5 Takeaways: Emeka Egbuka, Sam Darnold, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Darren Waller
00:52:02
October 6: Matthew (@MatthewBerryTMR), Jay (@croucherJD), and Connor (@ConnorJRogers) recap player performances in Bucs-Seahawks, Commanders-Chargers, Cowboys-Jets, Dolphins-Panthers, Lions-Bengals, and Broncos-Eagles. The guys also highlight big days from Stefon Diggs, Rashid Shaheed, and C.J. Stroud, and unveil their favorite bets in Chiefs at Jaguars.
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- [00:00]
Matthew Berry
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- [01:01]
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- [01:32]
Connor Rogers
Questions rolling in here. Oh, man. Yeah, the chat is upset. No ankles. I feel robbed. That's from Jesus Hermosilla.
- [01:41]
Jay Croucher
Yeah.
- [01:41]
Connor Rogers
Matthew, you're.
- [01:42]
Jay Croucher
You got a different look today.
- [01:43]
Connor Rogers
The ankles will be back, what, Monday? Maybe Sunday if people are lucky.
- [01:47]
Jay Croucher
You know what? You know what I'm gonna do? Be careful.
- [01:50]
Mike Clay
Don't strain anything.
- [01:51]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Don't pull anything.
- [01:56]
Connor Rogers
Five to one odds Barry is not wearing pants. Which those odds might have cashed judging by the angle.
- [02:03]
Jay Croucher
For the angle.
- [02:04]
Mike Clay
Let's run that spring grab on F.
- [02:05]
Jay Croucher
And I. Oh boy.
- [02:11]
Matthew Berry
Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry.
- [02:17]
Connor Rogers
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Happy Hour, the start of a new lovely week. Connor Rogers, Matthew Berry, Jay Croucher. I love the chat already. David Davis. What a name. What will the excuse ler come up with today?
- [02:30]
Mike Clay
It's a good vibe. Nice little toe sticking, by the way, at the end of that ankle show.
- [02:34]
Jay Croucher
My toe? You didn't like my toe?
- [02:36]
Mike Clay
Well, you got a little wiggle. I don't know about the wiggle.
- [02:40]
Jay Croucher
It's showing. Proof of life is what it's doing, you know, it's a victory Monday as well. So very exciting for some.
- [02:49]
Mike Clay
For some.
- [02:50]
Jay Croucher
For. In terms of who, there's a lot.
- [02:53]
Connor Rogers
Of different ways we could.
- [02:54]
Mike Clay
Jayn Daniels won his tournament.
- [02:56]
Jay Croucher
Jayn Daniels. That's fun.
- [02:57]
Mike Clay
You lost yours.
- [02:57]
Jay Croucher
Oh, yeah. My team's. Terry. It is what it is. Yeah. My team's terrible. I mean, we can get into that if you want to. I think there's more important things to do, Mike. Ask an answer. You know, like when you're in court. You know what I mean? Like, and like you just keep beating up a witness and like, you know, like the defense. One of the other attorneys will say like, your honor, ask and answered. Like it's been asked, it's been answered. Why do you keep asking the same question? So, yeah, I mean, asked and answered. My team is terrible. My second round pick was Derek Henry. My third round pick was Chase Brown. They both suck.
- [03:26]
Connor Rogers
Should have listened to Jay. Derek Henry done this.
- [03:28]
Jay Croucher
Bingo bango. Should have gone with Keaton Mitchell in the second round, obviously to Jay's point. Jaden Daniels, my first round pick. He's missed a couple of games. It is what it is. My team's terrible.
- [03:36]
Mike Clay
It's okay. We don't have to. It's like Tom Cruise didn't keep on asking Colonel Jessup if he ordered the code red after he said he ordered the code red. We don't have to keep on beating the dead horse.
- [03:44]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, I'm just asking. Answered. My team is terrible. We are going. We have not officially lost, although we will lose tonight ultimately. Unless somehow Xavier Worthy somehow manages to.
- [03:55]
Connor Rogers
Outscore Patrick Mahomes and then have an excess of 18 points.
- [03:59]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, by 18 points, like that's what I need to happen. And so. So I guess like three reverses.
- [04:05]
Connor Rogers
Yeah, you need the Xavier Worthy run game.
- [04:07]
Jay Croucher
And I will tell you, I will tell you that in another league that I candidly care more about than this league, in another league, I desperately need Xavier Worthy to score less than eight and a half points. So I am rooting for. I hope you beat me by 19 points or more.
- [04:23]
Connor Rogers
It's like a nice 13 point night, for example.
- [04:25]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, no, that's exactly what's going to happen, by the way. Xavier Worth is going to do enough for me to make me lose, but not enough that helps me, you know, not enough that helps me in against you as well. So no, I'm. I'm going to lose to you. I will fall to 05. It is what it is. My team is just terrible. We are not Good.
- [04:44]
Connor Rogers
You and the New York Jets.
- [04:46]
Jay Croucher
I'm the Jets. It's me and Aaron Glenn. We're both on the hot seat. I at least have two titles to rest on. Yeah, Very Belichickian.
- [04:55]
Connor Rogers
Five games.
- [04:55]
Jay Croucher
I'm very Belichickian. At the moment. I have these titles. I have this legendary career, but at the moment, I'm just pissing it all away.
- [05:02]
Mike Clay
You're the Colorado rookies, you're Bud Black, Bud Barry.
- [05:07]
Jay Croucher
Exactly, exactly. Unfortunately, my wife is my age, so. But other than that, me and Belichick right there.
- [05:14]
Connor Rogers
Awful striper bet.
- [05:15]
Jay Croucher
Yes, Belichick. The whole Belichick thing. That's where it's going. Just saying, you know. Anyway, it's a victory Monday for the Commanders, for the Tide. I was there in Tuscaloosa, as you saw. Roll Tide. We beat Vandy. Big victory for the Crimson Tide.
- [05:32]
Connor Rogers
Lots to get through as we recap the games. We'll also have, of course, your weekend Warriors Sunday scaries Monday Night Football preview on the second half of the show. But let's jump right into an absolute thrilling game between the Bucs and the Seahawks, which Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold dueling in this one, of course, the unfortunate interception for Sam Darnold at the. But the story of this continues to be the rookie sensation that is Emeka Abuka, who spoke after the game on the offense's ability to keep winning right at the wire.
- [06:02]
Emeka Abuka (quoted player)
I forget the saying. It's like one time's luck, second time's a fluke and third time it's a real deal. So I think this is the fourth two minute drive that we had this year out of five games. And you know, NFL is down to the wire a lot of the time, so you have to have someone at quarterback that has that capability and Baker has that for sure. We're never out of the count. And, you know, it was a back and forth game. It was a little bit of a shootout. There's going to be times where, you know, we as an offense have to have our defense back and then there's times where they have to have our back as well. So it's a whole cohesive unit. We're one team, one heartbeat and we ended up coming out victorious and that's really all that matters.
- [06:37]
Connor Rogers
What a ride it's been for Emeka Abuca. It was interesting because we knew Chris Godwin would miss the first couple games and it was like, okay, Abuka is going to be viable, then Mike Evans gets hurt. Now it just feels like it might be his offense Yeah, I mean, I.
- [06:50]
Jay Croucher
Don'T, I don't know how you sort of go away from him. Like even when Mike Evans is back, even, I mean Chris Godwin was out there for a bunch of snaps. Didn't do, you know, a ton with it. I mean, Chris Godwin got four targets, you know, whatever. I mean Kate Otten got five, Tez Johnson got four. Mecha Buka got only seven targets here. He had the big 57 yarder there as well. He's the first player in NFL history with 25 receptions and five receiving touchdowns in his first five career games. You're seeing all the underlying stats. He's in the same. He's in the Puka Nakua conversation, he's in the Randy Moss conversation. In terms of a rookie wide receiver coming in the lead and just setting it on fire. In terms of not just NFL production, but obviously fantasy football production as well. He's averaging 89 receiving yards per game. He's at at least a 20% target share in every game this year except for one. And the most impressive things to me about this is he did this on the road at Seattle. With the exception of possibly Miami to Seattle, I don't know that there is a longer distance you can travel inside the United States, not counting the London games or anything like that, but just for a game inside the United States to travel from Tampa Bay to Seattle, which in theory is a tough place to play. Although The Seahawks are 2 and 8 at home over the last 10 games. I just, by the way, Baker Mayfield, 29 of 33 in this game, like he's just been on fire. That's part of it as well.
- [08:09]
Mike Clay
Yeah, I don't think he's going to win MVP by the end of the season, but if you held a vote today, I think Baker Mayfield would have actually win MVP. So 4 and 1. His stats are amazing. He's led all these game winning drives, all four of them in their four victories. He's been phenomenal. I think with Ibuka, the only thing and like concern is relative. Like he's going to be going to start a macro booker every week the rest of the season. You mentioned like Puka Nakua, he's not quite getting that kind of target share. Right. He's been dependent on these deep balls. But Connor, at some point the deep balls which normally you think are like very prone to variance, like maybe it's just might just be part of his game.
- [08:41]
Connor Rogers
Well, especially when you have a quarterback as efficient and accurate as Baker. Right. That's the difference. If this was a quarterback that was a little bit more spotty with the accuracy, but no, this is the Bucs offense. This is what Baker Mayfield does. And Emeka Buka, I understand at times the volume wasn't there for him in college because of the players he played with, but when he did get opportunity, this is also exactly what he did. So this is for real. There's no way. This is no bit of a fluke. This is sustainable right now.
- [09:03]
Jay Croucher
Average depth of target. To your point about the deep balls, 13.8. This is average depth of target. He's had at least three or more deep targets in every single game this year. It is part of his. It is part of his. His game, his makeup there. Aloha Bricks wants to know, is a Buka going to be a top 10 pick next year at this pace? Probably. At this pace, probably. Like we always ask, like, why is this happening? And so as long as the offense is the same, as long as Baker Mayfield is still his quarterback. And I don't know if Mike Evans is back next year. I mean, like, but. But I agree with you, like, next week. If you told me Mike Evans is back next week, I'm still ranking a book of the highest of the three guys between him, Godwin and Evans. And I think the most important thing here is. Is again with Baker Mayfield. You mention it. Like, he's had. We talked about this in the Football Night in America pod. Baker Mayfield has had four different games this year where the Buccaneers have taken the lead in the final minute. I mean, like, they have. They're these. The Cardiac kids, the new Cardiac kids and everything in the fourth quarter. And the point is, is that when you're making those crazy comebacks the way the Buccaneers constantly do, if you're Baker Mayfield, who do I trust? You know, third and long, fourth and long. Gotta have it play. Who do I trust? And the answer is Emeka Abuca. Like, he has earned the trust. He's not just making some splashy plays and a couple of big things. He has earned the trust of one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, a team that is going to be throwing a lot. It's fun to watch. Not a fluke. It's been awesome. The other thing in this game here, guys, I think was we were. We thought it might be a bit of a. We thought Rashad White would lead this backfield. We thought it might. We might see some Sean Tucker. It was all Rashad White in this one.
- [10:44]
Connor Rogers
Connor, 81% snap rate. I mean, and the thing we said about him is we know they trust him in pass pro even when Bucky Irving is healthy. But I think what was not surprising, Jay but what was obvious is they just trust him on the field all the time when there's no Bucky. And this is a team that does still have some balance in terms of run pass.
- [11:01]
Mike Clay
Yeah, maybe don't think about him like this way, but he's like a veteran of that team and that organization. Like he's been through multiple. Ray James, he was the guy, the clear lead guy on the Dave Canales offense two years ago. He clearly has Baker Mayfield's trust. They gave him the ball with the game on the line against Houston back in Week 2, even when Bucky's out there. So yeah, I mean, there was uncertainty just because we haven't seen it. It's like the same when there's new running back situations. You just don't know what's going to happen. Like Michael Carter versus Dema Carter. We don't know what's going to happen. They're going in. Rashad White, though, this was pretty emphatic. Like he's clearly like, you can't start Sean Tucker going forward.
- [11:32]
Jay Croucher
No, this is a disappointing game for tucker. Played only 21% of the snaps. Only six total touches had minus one yard. Rashad White Got 75% of the Buccaneers team running back touches. Had a 12.5% target share. Played 81% of the snaps. Like he was the guy. He literally inherited the entire Bucky Irving role without seeding any of the Rashad White role. So finishes as we head into Monday Night Football. He's the seventh best running back in fantasy. Huge day for Rashad White against a defense that we thought he would have success against because we talked about this in fantasy football pregame that the Seahawks, we thought their defense would play better than they did in this one. But their one vulnerability is pass catching running backs. So we thought Rashad White would have success. I think I had him as a top 20 play. He's going to end the week as a top 10 play. Nice job by Rashad White. If Bucky Irving misses another game, which it looks like he might, Rashad White would be another top 15 play against the Niners in week six.
- [12:23]
Connor Rogers
Over 27 fantasy points for Sam Darnold. He is QB3 heading into Monday Night Football. Matthew, news or noise here for Darnold, who before the interception was phenomenal yesterday and even there was a little bit of bad luck.
- [12:35]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, it tipped 28 of 34. That's his QBR was 95 in this game. His passer reading was 135. Like again this wasn't just volume. I mean like he was super efficient. 28 of 34, 341 yards, four touchdowns. And it's weird is, is that I think it's somewhere in between news or noise which is that like the reason I say that is is like is it news because like he's playing well. Like I don't think this is a fluke. Sam Darnold is a, is an above average NFL quarterback that's playing really well and is a good fit in Clint Kubiak's offense. They're starting to find some weapons beyond Jackson Smith and Jigba. AJ Barner had a nice game. We'll talk about him. They've obviously got the good running game here. Cooper Cup's pitching in. We like Torrey Horton but to me I also think it's kind of noise because I just, I don't see. I wouldn't at the moment be comfortable with him as my number one quarterback in a 10 or 12 team one quarterback league. So I think he's somewhere in that. He's, you know, as we head into the byes I think he's a viable streamer. I think he's a very viable two quarterback super flex league guy. I don't know that I'm ready to say like yes, he's a locked in top 12 fantasy quarterback the rest of the way. He doesn't run so he needs kind of this insane volume and I don't know that every game is going to be a shootout like this. This was just one of those games that sort of they went back and forth huge incredible battle between Darnold and Mayfield. But like the Seahawks defense generally is pretty good and I just don't see Darnold getting into these shootouts week in, week out.
- [14:00]
Mike Clay
Jay, they have a very low pass rate over expectation as a team. The Seahawks they want to run the ball with K and also this is a pass funnel defense in Tampa. Whenever Vita Ver is there that you can't run the ball on Tampa Bay but you can throw on them. So I do think this is an outlier. I think Donald is a, you know, mid tier to high end QB2.
- [14:16]
Connor Rogers
Our next game here guys completely got away from the Chargers after the first quarter. The commander slow start to this game but they dominated after that first quarter on the backs of the run game, especially there. Matthew Bill gets two touchdowns. I know he had the fumble.
- [14:32]
Mike Clay
I give it like a little one yeah, come on.
- [14:33]
Connor Rogers
Like a little clash.
- [14:34]
Jay Croucher
Jakory Crosby Merit breakout game. The fumble wasn't great, but season highs and touches and snap rate. He played 49% of the snaps, 16 of the team's 23 running back touches. The most important part here was that he looked explosive. Right? So he got the two touchdowns. They weren't just like gimme, you know, on the one yard line where he fell into the offense. Like they were explosive runs. He gave them a spark they didn't have. Now I still think that they used him a little bit in the passing game, but I think ultimately, you know, he got two targets, but he caught both of them for 39 yards. One was a very big play. So I still think you'll see some Jeremy McNichols in the passing game. You'll still see some Chris Rodriguez, but I think this is the Bill Crosky Merit breakout game. He had 16 touches in this game, seven of them gain 10 or more yards. Again, there's just an explosiveness to him that this offense thrives on and they want him to be the guy. It's one of the reasons why Brian Robinson was, was moved off. And again, he's a rookie and they're, they're easing him into it, but like the snap rate is going up every single week. I think he's an RB2 moving forward. I think in the right matchup he could be an RB one. But so again, let's not get crazy carried away. He's a low end RB2 because the usage still isn't fully there, but it's trending in the right direction and I'm a believer in the talent.
- [15:51]
Mike Clay
Yep, to me, kind of maybe the most even more stunning out of this game is not bill. But in 2021, the three best school position players in football were Jonathan Taylor, Cooper Cupwood, the best wide receiver season ever. And Debo Samuel. And Debo Samuel. He's not quite back to that level, but he looks like a kind of borderline elite wide receiver again.
- [16:08]
Connor Rogers
Yeah, he's turned back the clock. I don't know if it's just because he's finally healthy. Obviously Cliff Kingsbury knows how to use a guy like that.
- [16:15]
Jay Croucher
And the fact is, contract year, contract year always help.
- [16:18]
Connor Rogers
They need him to be because of the injuries they have at wide receiver with notary McLaurin and credit to Jaden Daniels who can revitalize probably any receiver in this league right now.
- [16:27]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, I mean, I think it's a combination of all those things. I think, you know, probably finally Healthy, motivated. I think, you know, contract year. Not to say that he wasn't motivated before, but it's different. He's on a one year deal. You know, his contract's up at the end of the year. So he's slimmed down, he's healthy, he's. And we said this at the time of the trade that his skill set and the kind of offense that Cliff Kingsbury runs are a perfect fit. It's one of the reasons why Washington went out and got Debo Samuel. Friend of the podcast. Multi Tom, Multi time. Sorry, Multi time friend of the podcast. He's been on the show many, many times. Heavy meat sauce, which is indeed this. This might be. Does somebody have access to my burner account? Asks JCM or Woody Marks. Rest the season. I'm going to say it's Jecory Crosky. Merritt. Disappointing game for Woody Marks. We liked him a lot this week. He didn't have a big game. We'll get to that later.
- [17:21]
Mike Clay
But a rerun. There was a chubbasance. Yeah, the trouble arose again at this point. Full chub.
- [17:27]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, he got chubbed up. Yeah, he did get chubbed up.
- [17:30]
Connor Rogers
One Chubb hovered and the other chub rises.
- [17:33]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, there was a rising bounce of the universe.
- [17:35]
Mike Clay
The chubby rising as it always has been. One chub goes up, the other must go down.
- [17:40]
Connor Rogers
On the other side of this game.
- [17:41]
Jay Croucher
Guys, for the Chargers got a full chub this time.
- [17:43]
Connor Rogers
Justin Herbert, bit of a slump here. He's now had under 15 points in three straight games. He's thrown four interceptions over this three game stretch as well. He only threw three all of last year. Much more passing in this offense. So that's going to happen. And then the disappointing news. Matthew Mariam Hampton hurts his ankle in this game. It sounds like he could miss some time.
- [18:01]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, we'll see. We'll see on that one. Obviously that's a bummer. More tests today, so we'll probably know more by tomorrow's show, but obviously not great. He was in a walking boot after the game. Don't love that. So cross my fingers if he were to miss time. We'll talk about this more tomorrow, but feels like it'll be a committee between Hasan Haskins and Kamani Vidal. The other thing is that they're not blocking right. I mean, you know Sean Slater out for the year. Joe Alt with a high ankle sprain. He's going to miss a few more weeks as well. Like Washington, which doesn't have like the most amazing pass rush, was able to get Home quite a bit. They ate him alive. And so, I mean, you saw it in the box score a little bit. This is one of the reasons why Justin Herbert had 60 yards rushing. He was running for his life a little bit, but getting to him, getting pressured to him. And honestly, the Chargers had this game. They were up 10 to nothing and they had the momentum on the side. And then just a couple of interceptions. And then the one that turned the game was the interception in the red zone. Just a brutal pick by Herbert. And again, like, I just. I think he's. There's a. I don't want to say full yips, but a little bit because I don't know that he trusts that line yet or should he? Yeah, right.
- [19:06]
Connor Rogers
It's Austin decolas, Trey Pipkins, Jamari Saller had to play right tackle. I think combined the three tackles, gave up five sacks.
- [19:13]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, it wasn't good.
- [19:14]
Mike Clay
This is what, this is what happens in the Houston playoff game as well. They just got rattled by pressure and the pressure was unrelenting and it's difficult to overcome that. So Herbert started the season super brightly. Obviously, still think he's going to be a viable starting fantasy quarterback, but you have to lower the ceiling fit.
- [19:28]
Jay Croucher
They're on the road at Miami next week, which should hopefully cure some. Cure some ills.
- [19:32]
Connor Rogers
Our next game.
- [19:33]
Jay Croucher
Nice to see lad. McConkey though. 22% target share, catches the touchdown. Still not all the way back, but the touchdown helped ease a lot. Saw his first two end zone targets in this game. Again, the 22% target share isn't massive, but it's the. It's the highest that he's seen in quite some time this year. So happy to see it. Feels like we're starting to get Back to Aladdin McConkey. And by the way, if Hampton does miss time, they'll be all passed. Like all due respect to Haskins and Vidal, it's just going to be. It's going to be passing to those three guys.
- [20:02]
Connor Rogers
We'll cover more of that on waivers throughout the week.
- [20:05]
Jay Croucher
Rondy Gadson didn't show up in the box score, but he ran a lot of routes. He was out there quite a bit.
- [20:10]
Connor Rogers
Something at tight end.
- [20:11]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, they need something.
- [20:13]
Connor Rogers
Our next game, guys. Terrible game between the Cowboys and Jets, but a fantasy buffet to go all around. As expected, these defenses have been bad. Dallas, their lead scorers did exactly what you expected. Dak was great. Javonte Williams had a huge run before the half. Jake Ferguson scores two touchdowns before the half. George Pickens, not his Biggest day. But he catches the long touchdown over Sauce Gardner. And even on the jets side, because of garbage time, you had Justin Fields and Garrett Wilson and Mason Taylor get theirs. But this story was all about Dak and the run game under Brian Schottenheimer, which the quarterback spoke on after the game.
- [20:51]
Dak Prescott (quoted player)
He's a hell of a player. Great player, great running back. Understands the schemes, understands the past game, understands what we're trying to get at. Always is going to get positive yards. I mean, there's been numbers of plays now where it should have been a negative play. And the guy just, he's so strong. Shakes his defender off of him, still go, gets a first down and third down or fourth down, whatever it may be. He's a huge help to this team. He's been a great addition and credit everything he's doing. But there's a lot of those guys, those guys up front tonight who went and created holes for him and played nasty and played to the end of each whistle. And Javante running hard like he always does resulted in a big night for him.
- [21:33]
Connor Rogers
All right, guys. Well, now the question is, can Javante Williams continue to get away with this? At this point, it just feels like he's in a. They had four backup offensive linemen yesterday and they were able to run the ball.
- [21:44]
Mike Clay
The thing is now it's like it's been five games now. So this is like a material physics.
- [21:49]
Connor Rogers
Physically, he looks different than the guy that was coming off horrible injury in Denver that couldn't get his legs under.
- [21:54]
Mike Clay
The thing is too, is that like Dak Prescott's just playing at such an insanely high level that he is just carrying this offense at the moment. I don't think that that is necessarily going to change. Is it like right now, Right now, he's one run away from being second in the NFL and rushing yards behind Jonathan Taylor. I don't think that is probably going to sustain, but the idea that he's a top 10 running back, I think is perfectly viable.
- [22:14]
Connor Rogers
Clay Latham, Max Matthews, Javante Williams, the steal of the draft.
- [22:17]
Jay Croucher
He's one of them. There's no question. There's absolutely no question about it. Yeah, I mean, there's. There's a. There's a few of them. Right? I mean, but he's right up there. You know, if. If he's. If he's not the steal of the draft, he's one of the top five. There's no question about it. As we head into Monday Night Football, he's the sixth best running back in fantasy. He's running back four on the season for a guy that was kind of left for dead in drafts that you know and the people that did draft him kind of like crap. I kind of punted running back. All right, fine. Javante Williams, I guess I hope right there was all this preseason buzz about Jaden Bleu. He finally makes an appearance in this game. Doesn't do anything. Miles Sanders, nothing as well. He's averaging over 19 touches a game. And look at this upcoming schedule at Carolina, home to Washington, at Denver, home to Arizona. With the exception of the Broncos, like three of the next four are really good are good to great matchups for opposing running backs. And Jay, your point is absolutely right. Like if you're a defensive coordinator kind of pick your poison. Dak Prescott is playing as good as any quarterback in the NFL right now. And so you're sort of like and as CD Liam meaning without CD Lamb. Right. I mean whether it's Pickens and you know, in Ferguson Flournoy like yeah I stupidly started Jalen Tolbert. We'll get to that game. No, I mean like Jalen. By the way, Jalen Tolbert had a 91% route participation is out there. Yeah. Earn right to cardio. Earned one target. Like unbelievable. Like I started Tolbert against like stupidly like as the thought was right. It was just apparently was Flournet was the guy not was against the jets. And you know no Kevante Turbine. You know like 91% route to presentation one target like I think Jalen Tolbert terrible.
- [23:56]
Mike Clay
I think a huge part of evaluating players for fantasy real life is how resilient are they going to be if the context changes and we've seen now this offense. All right, steady. Lamb out. Still fine. Absolutely. Offensive line decimated. Still fine. Absolutely humming because Dak Prescott is just that good at the moment.
- [24:11]
Jay Croucher
He really is. Dak is. Dak is playing elite. Yes. I don't. I don't think Javante Williams is a sell high. I think he's a legit RB1 low end RB1 but still a legit low end RB1 for the rest of the season. And Jake Ferguson is a legit tight end one honestly a top five fantasy tight end. Fourth straight game now with at least seven receptions and 16 or more fantasy points. Only Trey McBride has a higher target share on his team among tight ends than Jake Ferguson. Again, he's fully healthy. Dak's fully healthy. This offense is rolling. I just mentioned the schedule here. I don't think this is a fluke either.
- [24:50]
Mike Clay
The only Thing is, CD coming back, CD being a bit more in the slot, taking more of the intermediate stuff, whether that takes a bit away from Ferguson's target share and his route tree. But yeah, even given that there's not many tight ends I'd rather have over Jake Ferguson, like Trey McBride, Tyler, Warren Kittle when he comes back.
- [25:07]
Connor Rogers
It's a short list craft.
- [25:08]
Mike Clay
Maybe that's it. Like I'd rather have Jake. I think I'd rather have Jake Ferguson than Brock Bowers, given the Brock Bowers knee stuff at the moment. Yeah, but yeah, he's. He's definitely in the Furglar.
- [25:18]
Jay Croucher
The Furgler is right.
- [25:21]
Connor Rogers
Brian Schottenheimer, by the way. Jay. 30 to 1 to win Coach of the year.
- [25:24]
Mike Clay
Yeah, I think he's got to win the division to win that. But the Eagles don't look great at the moment, so it might be a winnable division.
- [25:28]
Connor Rogers
That's 14, 14 coaches above him. I think that's silly, right? I agree.
- [25:32]
Mike Clay
He should be a top six.
- [25:34]
Connor Rogers
Think about the hand he was dealt for the. Oh, your owner traded your. Your best player who's on defense. You got really nothing to work with on defense. You have to outscore everybody every week by a wide margin.
- [25:43]
Jay Croucher
Yep.
- [25:44]
Mike Clay
The only thing there is like Steichen, Shanahan. Those are three pretty imposing names at the top, particularly after Vrabel's win last night.
- [25:53]
Jay Croucher
Dan Quinn.
- [25:54]
Mike Clay
Dankwin's not in the mix also.
- [25:55]
Connor Rogers
30 to 1.
- [25:58]
Mike Clay
Much shorter than that.
- [25:59]
Jay Croucher
No, but honestly, like what. They're 2, 2 and 1. Right. The Cowboys are. Let's assume they beat Carolina now they're 3, 2 and 1. Yeah, my game against Watt, they could easily beat the Commanders, like, you know, like at Denver, at Arizona, they go three and one over this stretch. However that works out.
- [26:13]
Connor Rogers
And now that he's probably what, 20 to 1 after.
- [26:15]
Mike Clay
Yeah, I like, I like 31. I think it's a good bet. I think he's going to go like at least 11.5 and one win the division. Like it gets tough towards the back end. The back end you're going to play Eagles, Chiefs out, Lions, Vikings charges at Commanders. There's going to be some losses in there because the defense just is what it is. But I think Schottenheimer is. He's been very underrated because that gets so many headlines. Justifiably so. But yeah, they're upside.
- [26:36]
Jay Croucher
But if they, if they could bank some wins here in that, in this, you know, at this, the week six through 11. Right. Panthers, commanders, Broncos, Cardinals, they got a buy. And week 10 at the Raiders. Okay, fine.
- [26:48]
Mike Clay
Go four and one heading into the.
- [26:50]
Jay Croucher
And then. And then week 12 through 16, tough schedule, but all home games except the week 14 game at the Lions. Right. Home to the Eagles, home to the Chiefs. That's the Thanksgiving game. You can see them sneaking one out there. Week 14 at the Lions. Week 15, home to the Vikings. That's on NBC. And Peacock, that's the Sunday night game. And then the chargers in week 16, home. So, like, like, if they can. If they could split those, you know, like, split the home games, which is certainly. Yeah, yeah, I can make the case. I can make the case.
- [27:18]
Mike Clay
My bet there would be Shanahan, though, at 8 to 1. Kyle Shanahan plays Shane Steichen on Monday Night football in Week 16. I think that game decides coach of the Year.
- [27:25]
Connor Rogers
Nice.
- [27:26]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, I like that. I like that call.
- [27:28]
Connor Rogers
Our next game should be Dan Quinn.
- [27:30]
Mike Clay
Obviously, more love last year.
- [27:33]
Jay Croucher
He definitely should have gotten more love last year.
- [27:35]
Connor Rogers
Raise the flags in the chat. Also wanted to remind you, don't. Don't sleep on Kevin's team.
- [27:38]
Jay Croucher
Stefanski two time Coach of the Year. A lot of people don't remember that. A lot of people don't.
- [27:42]
Connor Rogers
Three time would be real.
- [27:43]
Mike Clay
The cycle. Coach of the Year to Kevin Stefanski every second year. And Joe Borough gets to a comeback player every second year.
- [27:49]
Jay Croucher
Yeah.
- [27:49]
Connor Rogers
A giant scheme. Scheme.
- [27:51]
Jay Croucher
Yeah. And by the way, if Zach Taylor ever makes a quarterback change, he's in the mix. He might be in the mix if he's suddenly. It's tough out there, you know, who's not in the mix at all, but who actually should be legit? All jokes aside, Sean McVeigh.
- [28:03]
Connor Rogers
Yeah. Sean McVeigh, 25 to 1 after the.
- [28:06]
Jay Croucher
Sean McVay.
- [28:07]
Mike Clay
His greatness is just kind of accepted.
- [28:08]
Connor Rogers
So I know you get punished for.
- [28:11]
Jay Croucher
That, but Belichick, Belichick. Did Belichick ever win Coach of the Year? He won once, right?
- [28:16]
Connor Rogers
25 to 1. Like for context here. Yeah, you get punished for that.
- [28:21]
Mike Clay
Mike Tomlin's never won in his whole career.
- [28:23]
Jay Croucher
Right?
- [28:23]
Mike Clay
Yeah.
- [28:23]
Jay Croucher
Like, it's sort of insane. Like, Brian Dables are the ones, though. Yeah. I mean, the Rams have been great this year. The Rams have been absolutely great this year.
- [28:32]
Mike Clay
Dan Campbell should be more in the mix for this.
- [28:34]
Connor Rogers
Yeah, he's 10 to 1. That seems ridiculous. Honestly.
- [28:37]
Jay Croucher
Stupid.
- [28:37]
Connor Rogers
All right, how about the Electric Factory? That was Dolphins. Panthers.
- [28:42]
Jay Croucher
Before we move off this game, the last thing I'll just say here. Mason Taylor, obviously. We'll talk about him tomorrow. I'm sure as well. But like, we've talked about him for a little while here. Back to back games now. At least 25% target share. At least 65 receiving yards in both games. Connor, we've talked about him honestly since the preseason. We talked about like, this is likely going to be their number two pass catcher after Garrett Wilson. That's played out and Justin Fields has been good enough. It's a good matchup against Dallas. They were in comeback mode, but still they're looking for 85 quite a bit.
- [29:10]
Connor Rogers
Yeah, you're probably going to need to stream a tight end at some point. Mason Taylor needs to be rostered. He just. The target share is just too high. The usage. Dolphins. Panthers. Dolphins blow this one at the end. Huge win for the Panthers. Rico Dowdle had 206 rushing yards in this game. That is the most by a quarterback or by a running back in a game this season. We got to hear from Rico Dowdle not only on this big performance, but he's got the Cowboys on tap next week.
- [29:38]
Rico Dowdle (quoted player)
Yeah, I think it's always a chip on my shoulder just from the start of coming into the NFL, sitting behind those guys for years, going undrafted, but yeah, so I've always played with a chip on my shoulder and, you know, it's just the nature of the business that I didn't end back up in dollars and. And I'm here now with a new team and I'm happy where I'm at.
- [29:55]
Mike Clay
But to do this right before y'.
- [29:57]
Jay Croucher
All played Dallas was this kind of.
- [29:59]
Connor Rogers
Like a message, like, y' all should have responded?
- [30:00]
Rico Dowdle (quoted player)
Oh, sure.
- [30:01]
Jay Croucher
They.
- [30:01]
Rico Dowdle (quoted player)
They gotta buckle up. I think they know for sure I've been there five years. They didn't keep me there for five years for no reason. I definitely would say that. But looking forward to playing those guys next week and we'll get to it. We'll handle that when I get there.
- [30:14]
Connor Rogers
They gotta buckle up.
- [30:15]
Mike Clay
I like that Uncle Ricar.
- [30:16]
Jay Croucher
Yes.
- [30:17]
Connor Rogers
He's awesome.
- [30:18]
Mike Clay
Yeah. State champions, baby.
- [30:19]
Jay Croucher
Could have gone pro.
- [30:21]
Mike Clay
No, that was fantastic. And so the question is now is like, okay, so what happens when Chuba Hubbard comes back?
- [30:26]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, I think he's more of a half Chub.
- [30:29]
Mike Clay
I never like to participate in chubby slander. You know that about me. But here's the thing. Chubab is not Jonathan Taylor or Saquon Barkley. If a Guy runs at 200 yards, he's going to start getting at least half the carries in the offense.
- [30:39]
Jay Croucher
I think he has to.
- [30:40]
Connor Rogers
Dolphins defense, though.
- [30:41]
Mike Clay
True, that's true.
- [30:42]
Jay Croucher
It's the caveat, Dolphins defense. And the other thing is, is, again, like, who knows with his coaching staff, Jay. The only thing that I'll say is, like, Chuba Hubbard, like, I would have made that argument. The only weird thing is that, like, last year, Chuba Hubbard got paid, you know, at a time. And when they. They drafted Jonathan Brooks, you know, everyone forgets about Jonathan Brooks, Right. You know, who's. Who's had, you know, you know, multiple unfortunate injuries in the NFL. But like, Connor, they. They paid Chuba Hubbard real money.
- [31:10]
Connor Rogers
I mean, really good running back money. Like, workhorse number one running back, top 10.
- [31:15]
Mike Clay
Then they paid Rico Dowdle. After spending a relatively high pick on.
- [31:18]
Connor Rogers
Jonathan, Dave Kallas is just. He's hoarding running backs.
- [31:22]
Jay Croucher
He is. And the other young Carl Shanahan. But the other thing about Dave Canales is that at least when he was in Tampa Bay, he sort of liked one guy. Like, again, he just. He didn't care that Rashad White was averaging three yards a carry. He was just like, we're giving him 20 touches. And so at least traditionally, he's sort of been like a one running back guy. I'm with you. I don't know how you put the toothpaste back in the bottle. After 200 yards, it's Miami, but still 84 of the team's running back touches. He also had a 15 target share, was second highest on the team. It's the most scrimmage yards by a running back in the NFL since Saquon had 302 against the Rams last year, which cost me a parlay. I'm. I'm still bitter about that. Like, they're just trying to run at the clock. Never forget, for the love of God, like, you know, like, like, literally, like it was an under a 49. Yeah. And like, anyway, they just let him run for a third. Whatever.
- [32:09]
Connor Rogers
Stupid gambling's fun.
- [32:10]
Jay Croucher
Okay.
- [32:11]
Mike Clay
Panthers have a better record than the Baltimore Ravens, by the way.
- [32:13]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, they do. Anyway, I. Here's what I will say about Rico Daddle, who's obviously the number one running back in fantasy, was headed in Monday Night Football. We'll talk about him a little bit more tomorrow. He needs to be picked up. I don't know what his role is once Chuba Hubbard comes back, but whatever his role is, it's better than it was before. Right. And so given that Hubbard. Remember Hubbard missed the end of last year as well with a little bit of injury. Right. You know, had the big game that, like the two touchdown game and then missed, like, I think I Want to say week 16 or 17 off the top of my head, but he got banged up towards the end of last year. He's banged up this year. So Dowdle, impressive performance. And as this Panthers offense looks for answers, maybe they try to do something with both guys in the backfield again. Bryce Young is. He's struggling. I know they win the game, but, like, he hasn't looked great.
- [32:59]
Connor Rogers
It was a tough at least first half. Yeah. So on the other side of this, Jay, Darren Waller, I mean, is he a tight end one going forward? Like, it kind of felt not fluky against the jets, but, you know, beware of him being able to replicate this and he goes out and he replicates it.
- [33:16]
Mike Clay
68 Rap participation, which is really key. I got a few people messaging me yesterday. Darren Waller, comeback player of the year. Didn't he take a year off to be a rapper? Does that count as the comeback story? Maybe It's a great story.
- [33:27]
Connor Rogers
It's a bad award.
- [33:28]
Mike Clay
Yeah. Like, yeah, I don't think he's going to win because I think this team is going to kind of recede into the background a little bit.
- [33:32]
Jay Croucher
Bit.
- [33:32]
Mike Clay
But he is, I think because of the end zone targets that he is going to be a viable, startable tight end each week. And because he's got such a high target when he's out there, even if he's not, you know, playing 80 of the snaps or anything crazy, he's going to get end zone targets and also he's going to become, I think, the number two guy in this passing game at least. HN might be number two, but he'll be right there with HN behind Waddle.
- [33:54]
Jay Croucher
Disappointing game from Achan. I mean, like, thank God he got the receiving touchdown. It was pretty, pretty bleak. This offense looks a little bit of a mess, but to your point about Waller, 36% route participation in his first week back this week, up to 68%. So they're ramping him up. They're using him more. They were looking at him more. They were using him not just in the end zone, but like, you know, on intermediate, intermediate throws. We were. I was hopeful that there'd be more Malik Washington this game. There wasn't. I still believe in Malik Washington, but. And the offense just. The offense is a disaster. This was not a good game for Miami, but, you know, they get home next week against the Chargers, they have traditionally been much better. Especially TUA has been much better at home than they have been on the road. Chargers defense showing some, you know, sort of some cracks. My Guess is that's a one o' clock game as well. So west coast stream traveling east for a one o' clock game. Waller. Yeah. You know the other thing. Has Waller ever won Comeback player of the Year? I feel like he.
- [34:53]
Mike Clay
No, he hasn't. He should have when he initially came onto the stage because he has an amazing story.
- [34:58]
Jay Croucher
Unbelievable story.
- [34:59]
Connor Rogers
I wonder who won that year.
- [35:00]
Jay Croucher
That's.
- [35:00]
Mike Clay
It just goes to the quarterback who.
- [35:02]
Connor Rogers
Has the best thousand yard year. Yeah.
- [35:03]
Mike Clay
Just goes like Phil Rivers or whatever. He had a bad year the year before.
- [35:08]
Jay Croucher
Stupid award, but yeah, that's it. That would be interesting. Like his. His breakout year with the Raiders, like you know where. Yeah. Should have been. All right. Somebody that honestly deserves comeback player of the year is Jamar Chase. Just because what he's had to come back from.
- [35:23]
Mike Clay
What about his quarterback? Defensive player of the year, Jamar Chase.
- [35:26]
Connor Rogers
Three tackles.
- [35:26]
Mike Clay
Yeah.
- [35:26]
Jay Croucher
Three tackles. Damon, Bengals shout out to those of you in IDP leagues that like had Jamar Chase and got points.
- [35:33]
Connor Rogers
He's more productive than Travis Hunter in.
- [35:35]
Jay Croucher
That role right now.
- [35:37]
Connor Rogers
This game was completely out of hand despite the score at the end suggesting different. Jamar Chase catches the deep touchdown pass. Sam Laporta had a really hot start to this game. The Lions could be a do whatever they wanted on offense for a while. Jake Browning ran up some points in the fourth quarter. T. Higgins gets a touchdown at the end of the game.
- [35:54]
Jay Croucher
Yeah. For you. Yeah, like that's how. That's how my luck goes. Like, this team was getting off, like, just brutal and like, could Chase Brown get a. Oh, by the way, BS touchdown.
- [36:04]
Connor Rogers
You got some cheapies, though.
- [36:05]
Jay Croucher
I didn't get that.
- [36:06]
Connor Rogers
Browning's default mode, like when a Roomba goes and parks itself, Browning's mode is just chuck it down to Chase Brown. Three yards.
- [36:13]
Jay Croucher
I mean, still not a great fantasy day from. From Chase Brown. It was a great day from Ja' Marr Chase, much of it coming in the fourth quarter. He had. He was 4 for 31 in the first three quarters. His first touchdown. The play you probably all saw was the second touchdown where he's streaking down the left sideline and just blows by the guy and just gets hit in stride, which was a nice throw by Browning. But the first touchdown was actually the ridiculous one. Jake Browning throws into triple coverage and somehow Jamar Chase comes down with it with both toes on the sideline. Like it was just like it was a stupid throw and somehow Jamar Chase came down with it.
- [36:49]
Mike Clay
To me, it kind of reminded me the stakes much, much lower. But it reminded me of the Matt Ryan throw to Julio Jones in the Super Bowl. It's like, oh, unbelievable. Throw and catch. Like you never should have thrown it. Particularly with Browning. Like he just never should have let that. He's just like. He just seems to be broken at the moment and he. I don't think they can start him again going forward, frankly.
- [37:08]
Jay Croucher
No. Well, but they're going to have to. Although I guess in the post game press conference Zach Taylor sort of did open the door. He is up till that now has been sort of very much like, no, you know, Jake Browning is our guy. He opened the door a little bit to maybe considering it. They're at Green Bay next week.
- [37:24]
Mike Clay
I think so you've got a Packers lions there. They're 14 and a half point dogs. Then bring in Russell Wilson the following one.
- [37:30]
Jay Croucher
Think about that. You've got Green Bay that's had two weeks to sit on that tie to Dallas a game. So they're bitter. Right. Green Bay has lost the Browns, tied the Cowboys and had a week off. And now they're back home at Lambeau and here comes Jake Browning. I just.
- [37:49]
Mike Clay
It's trouble.
- [37:49]
Jay Croucher
That is. That is. Yeah, it's trouble. I don't know how you can. You may not have a better chance, but I don't like my team's so bad. I have to. But like how can you keep starting Chase Brown? I mean he's averaging under 50 yards from scrimmage. And Jake Browning's four starts, 46 yards. Can't get in the end zone. The blocking is awful. Browning is awful.
- [38:12]
Mike Clay
Like the only guy you can start on this offense is Jamal Chase. You can't start Tegan.
- [38:17]
Connor Rogers
Tegan's experience was awful yesterday.
- [38:18]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, you can't start the cheapest touchdown.
- [38:20]
Connor Rogers
At the end of the game.
- [38:21]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, you got bailed out by the touchdown. But it's. He's had three end zone targets so far as well.
- [38:28]
Connor Rogers
Scoop Newton.
- [38:29]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, Scoop.
- [38:30]
Connor Rogers
What do we do with Jameson Williams? For all the greatness of the Lions offense, it's shocking how little involvement he has.
- [38:36]
Mike Clay
They just have so many good players.
- [38:37]
Jay Croucher
Right?
- [38:37]
Connor Rogers
They do. And then they are winning by a million points.
- [38:40]
Mike Clay
It feels like every pass goes to Monroe St. Brown and then they run as much as any time in the league. Just about.
- [38:45]
Jay Croucher
Yeah. And I'm. I'm going to say no, you shouldn't bench Jameson Williams. You should drop Jameson Williams. Honestly, like unless you're ever going to start him. Why would you keep Jameson Williams on there? He had a 4% in a game in which the Lions dominated. He had a 4% target share on the season. He's averaging under eight fantasy points per game. He's wide receiver 62 and 48% of his points so far this year came in that week two game. Week one was the last time that he had more than two receptions in a game. Isaac Tesla. Tesla, Tesla. Isaac Tesla is taking some of those, some of the, some of the work away. They've got Laporta as well, obviously. Amon Ra. It's kind of a vacuum in terms of all the targets. They're so effective on the ground, which is how they want to play that offense. They want to be whatever Sonic and Knuckles, Lightning and Thunder, you know, that's how they want to do it. And so. And why wouldn't you do that? Because it's working. They're 4 and 1. We asked the question last night on the football night in America pod who's the best team in the nfc? And we all said Troy, the Lions are. I think the Eagles are right there.
- [39:53]
Mike Clay
They're the best team of football. I think they're wagon Right now we.
- [39:56]
Connor Rogers
Feel like we got like the week one scaries because John Morton had a tough debut calling Glaze and he's figured it all out since.
- [40:00]
Mike Clay
He has, by the way rest of the season. I think Puka Nakuru is wide receiver one. I think I'm on Ross St. Brown might be wide receiver two because they're running the ball a ton and he still just puts up these hundred yard games. You didn't get in the end zone yesterday. We had six on the season. There's no other player I'd want like JSN I think would be the other candidate but he's been dependent on these 50 yard bombs. Like Amon Ra is just an absolute base.
- [40:18]
Jay Croucher
Him and Goff are just dialed in.
- [40:20]
Connor Rogers
Matt, why is the chat saying you didn't have any faith in five yesterday? There's a lot of chatter in there saying that you didn't have faith in five. They're surprised you were.
- [40:28]
Mike Clay
I don't know, you banning them? I don't remember. Remember when you abandoned Terry McLaren before the season?
- [40:32]
Connor Rogers
Maybe they are calling back.
- [40:35]
Jay Croucher
I actually have no idea. Like I'll own whatever I said but ask the chat. Why are you saying I didn't have faith in five?
- [40:41]
Connor Rogers
Please update me chat. I wasn't here our last game. The Broncos beat the Eagles 21 17.
- [40:47]
Jay Croucher
A really can't believe they're questioning my fate.
- [40:49]
Connor Rogers
Yeah, I don't know.
- [40:50]
Jay Croucher
I'm just. I pray at the Church of Jaden.
- [40:52]
Connor Rogers
I'm just a messenger. This was an ugly fantasy game. Bonix was Great in the fourth quarter. 9, 10 in the fourth quarter. He really figured something out. Courtland Sutton was solid.
- [41:03]
Jay Croucher
Other than that. Guys.
- [41:04]
Connor Rogers
The Eagles tried to get the pass game going. Saquon had the big run.
- [41:07]
Jay Croucher
There was an Evan Ingram appearance which was nice to see. Finally fell into the end zone here. I like Dobbins once again. He's now scored in four or five games a season. J.K. dobbins, not to the extent of Javonte Williams, but J.K. dobbins is another like draft day value who's been great and that was the credit. One of the reasons why Denver won this game is they, they were like, screw you Philadelphia. We're going to just run at you. We don't have a scare. The Eagles offense, it's broken. It's broken. It's just bad. It's awful.
- [41:33]
Mike Clay
It's just not good.
- [41:34]
Jay Croucher
Like, I don't want to say there's such a weird 4:1 team.
- [41:38]
Connor Rogers
I agree.
- [41:39]
Jay Croucher
I mean Saquon, Saquon Bells you out fantasy wise because he had the wheel route where you know, he caught the pass for the touchdown. But six for 30.
- [41:46]
Mike Clay
Yeah, six. They were leading the whole game as well.
- [41:49]
Jay Croucher
How, how does Saquon Barkley only get 6 rushing attempts in this game? They tried to get AJ Brown certain was on AJ Brown a decent amount. Devonte Smith has a big game in this one as well. Jalen Hurts, his QBR was under 50. Yeah, like, and this comes after a week before where they had minus 1 yards of offense in the second half against Tampa Bay.
- [42:07]
Mike Clay
My theory, Connor, is that, that the scheme has never been super sophisticated and, and everyone is just playing slightly worse and there's a bit of wear and tear coming off the huge run. And that just adds up to this being a. Right now it's like a slightly below average offense statistically despite the talent.
- [42:22]
Connor Rogers
They kind of go out every week and they're like, we're more talented than you. The run game's not creative. They don't run a ton of different pass plays. And the jarring thing in this game.
- [42:29]
Jay Croucher
Was it's like 10 plays supposedly. That's, that's the rumor that they have like 10 plays.
- [42:34]
Connor Rogers
Hertz took six sacks against zone cover coverage yesterday. It's like he's holding the ball against man. It's like A.J. brown, Monte Smith, it's super easy for him. Once the Broncos flip to his own heavy defense, they have no answers to the test. That's scary because now teams know that. All right, that wraps up our game recaps. We're going to take a quick break. When we're back, we got weekend warriors and you have to still keep starting them Sunday scares. Yeah, I don't know what else you do.
- [42:57]
Jay Croucher
Yeah. Lower expectations.
- [42:59]
Connor Rogers
We'll be back.
- [43:03]
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- [43:53]
Stephon Diggs (quoted player)
It was lit like, you know, primetime. I played here before. I've been on the other side. It was just electrifying. And I knew that it was going to be a test for us, like obviously with the guys that we got and, you know, you know, we all new to each other. I think nine new starters compared to 11 on offense. So going into a hostile environment and the biggest thing is just the fundamentals and being violent, you know what I'm saying? Like be the aggressor. It's going to be a hostile day. You know, it's a great football team. So trying to take the fight to them.
- [44:23]
Connor Rogers
That was Stephon Diggs after the big win at Buffalo. Signature win for the Patriots. Drake May, Mike Brable and Stefan Diggs with almost a 43% target share. That was 12 total targets, 10 catches, 146 yards. He headlines our weekend Warriors. And Stefon Diggs drinks for free. Little extra fire in this one.
- [44:45]
Jay Croucher
Chief ball officer Stefan Diggs. That's right.
- [44:47]
Connor Rogers
People forget that.
- [44:48]
Jay Croucher
People forget that he does have an executive position. Chief ball artist and balls. Yeah. Friend of the podcast, friend of the show. Stefan Diggs. Good to see this. Over the last two weeks, he's had a 42% target share. This is something we talked about on Fantasy World pregame. He was. That was part of my parlay that ended up cashing last night. As I Had four receptions for Stefon Diggs Cashes. It very easily winds up with 10 over the past two weeks. He's a top 10 fantasy wide receiver on a points per game basis. Has yet to score a touchdown.
- [45:19]
Mike Clay
Yeah, I think he's a wide receiver one going forward. I don't see why not. He's, he's gonna. He's the clear alpha wide receiver for a good quarterback. And third attempt, throws the ball tiny. Passes the eye test as well. He just looks like Stefan Diggs again.
- [45:32]
Connor Rogers
How about Rashid Shahid? Jay has the 87 yard touchdown, 114 total. This is the kind of the game with Rashid Shahid. If you get the big play, you're gonna be really happy he was in your lineup.
- [45:43]
Mike Clay
Sheed the dream.
- [45:43]
Jay Croucher
Yeah.
- [45:43]
Mike Clay
This is the thing is that again you don't love the only five targets but it's just gonna be part of his game. It's just if you need high variance, he is the guy to start in your lineup. Taking off your bed, you're playing from behind after a rough Thursday night. Chuck Rashid Shahid into the mix because he can do this. Just can't count on it every week though to be fair, he is one of the best at doing this. It is fairly reliable.
- [46:02]
Connor Rogers
How about Calvin Ridley? This is a weird one here because Ridley's been not great this season. He gets 10 targets in this game. He only catches five of them, but 131 yards. Cam Ward had the deep ball working in this one. That throw on the last drive to Ridley was amazing.
- [46:16]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, Ridley came into the game banged up. We weren't sure if he was going to go. It was looking like he was trending towards not. We thought this would be the Alec Ao Manor breakout game and it wasn't. Ridley had a huge game here. 141 receiving yards total in his first four games. Has won 31 in this one. It was a crazy game. They were coming back. I'm not sure I totally buy it. Like again, nice to see this was such a nutty game. Tennessee had no business being in this game by the way. Good for them for doing it because Amari Dmicardo with the dumbest play in the universe like a week after A.D. mitchell does it. How do you not Arizona deserve to lose this game. Like it's. I feel so bad for Cardinals fans, like how and how frustrating it must be to watch that team because they had no business losing that game. They intercept Cam Ward and somehow turns into a Tyler Lockett touchdown.
- [47:04]
Connor Rogers
His biggest play of the year.
- [47:05]
Jay Croucher
I mean it was stupid as it will. But anyway, in terms of Calvin Ridley, we'll talk. Good to see signs of life from Calvin Ridley and from this passing offense. The one thing we'll say is that Tennessee's schedule, after a really tough start gets a lot easier next week. They're at Las Vegas, so that's a pretty good schedule.
- [47:23]
Connor Rogers
CJ Stroud, Jay the Ravens defense is kind of a punching bag right now. Stroud gets four touchdowns because of it.
- [47:29]
Mike Clay
Yep, this is the best two game stretch of Stroud's career since his rookie season. At the same time, Titans, Ravens, I would argue those are the two worst teams in football right now. At least until Lamar Jackson comes in.
- [47:40]
Connor Rogers
You should watch the New York jets sometimes and they're.
- [47:42]
Jay Croucher
They're on a buy this week as well, so.
- [47:44]
Mike Clay
Yeah, but good signs that he's able to do this, even if it's against Bay for sure.
- [47:47]
Jay Croucher
And as we said, Nick got back up to a full chub. Woody Marks disappointing, soft Woody, unfortunately. What are you going to do? Anti Chub? Yeah, what are you going to do? Yeah, but they're on a buy next week. We'll deal with that in two weeks.
- [47:58]
Connor Rogers
Back to Arizona here. Matthew, the good Michael Carter. Eighteen carries for just 51 yards. But he gets the touchdown. He also catches five passes. Maybe Arizona should have just kept handing him the ball.
- [48:06]
Jay Croucher
He was, he was the guy. Look, he averaged 3.2 yards per touch, so it's not like he was killing it. But the volume was there. As you said, 23 running back touches played almost 60% of the snaps. Was involved in the passing game as well. With a 17% target share. Second best fantasy game of his career. He's the guy you want moving forward there at the Colts next week.
- [48:24]
Connor Rogers
Theo Johnson makes our list at tight end. Six of seven targets he caught for 33 yards. But most importantly, Jay with most tight ends is the case.
- [48:31]
Mike Clay
Two touchdowns, the seven targets is the key. And the fact that he is the target in the end zone. I think Theo Johnson's the number one pass catching option for an NFL offense.
- [48:38]
Connor Rogers
Certainly feels that way.
- [48:39]
Jay Croucher
I mean Jackson Dart 20% target share and darts two starts which is a team high.
- [48:44]
Connor Rogers
Sunday scaries the tougher part of this segment. James Cook Guys 15 carries you like 49 yards and not finding the end zone which is always the concern. Matthew, it finally happened.
- [48:56]
Jay Croucher
Well, this is what, what we've said like when he's not because the volume isn't always there. Had only 15 touches. 3% target sharing hasn't been always consistently used in the passing game. So when he doesn't score, games like this happen. 4.9 fantasy points per game. They're at the Falcons next week. The other concern is only 33% of the team's red zone rushes. It's his first game this year without a goal line carry. Ultimately he'll be fine, but yeah, he's a little more touchdown dependent than most running back of his stature. Again, because he's an RB1 Alvin Camara here.
- [49:27]
Connor Rogers
Jay. Eight carries, 27 yards, four catches for 28 yards. The volume has just been shockingly low in recent weeks for Camara.
- [49:35]
Mike Clay
Only one more touch than Kendra Miller, which is the concern. Kendra Miller looks good too. So I think that that that situation is going to continue to trend in that direction.
- [49:41]
Jay Croucher
I think the only positive is that he at least got involved in the passing game, which he hasn't been. He got four receptions in this one. He had six targets. But I'm with you just to the eye test. Kendrick Mellor looks like the better running back needs to be stashed because you have to feel there's a chance. Kamara is on the move.
- [49:55]
Mike Clay
Saints playoff bound as well.
- [49:56]
Jay Croucher
It's coming.
- [49:57]
Mike Clay
We're back in business, baby. Wonderful.
- [49:58]
Connor Rogers
Never wrong, just early. Matthew, you mentioned this earlier. Woody Marks just didn't have the week we were hoping for. Only seven carries, 24 yards and it was a blowout.
- [50:06]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, I mean, look, he played 38% of the snaps. You don't love that. Had only 21% of the team's rushing attempts. If there's a positive here, he still led the backfield in snaps. He actually played more snaps than Nick Chubb. He got two red zone rush attempts. He got one goal to go. Rush attempts. Just didn't convert them. But the Woody Marks takeover, this backfield might have been a bit premature. Nick Chubb not going away quietly. Tough day at the office for Woody Marks. Same with Jacoby Myers as well. Third straight game with under 10 fantasy points. Your boy Geno looks awesome. My boy?
- [50:34]
Mike Clay
Why is he my boy?
- [50:34]
Jay Croucher
Yes, you love Geno. You have constantly been a Geno. Yeah, constantly. You attached your previously good name to Geno Smith many times on this show.
- [50:43]
Mike Clay
I'm a Coltsman.
- [50:45]
Jay Croucher
He looked awful. And no Bowers as well. That hurts as well. Well, disappointing day at the office for all of the Las Vegas Raiders.
- [50:52]
Connor Rogers
Monday Night Football preview when we're back.
- [50:56]
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- [52:14]
Connor Rogers
Debt relief.com DraftKings Sportsbook is an official sports betting partner of the NFL and new customers can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets. If your bet wins, just download the Sportsbook app and use promo code ffhh when you sign up. DraftKings sportsbook the Crown is yours.
- [52:30]
Jay Croucher
Oh, the crown's yours.
- [52:31]
Connor Rogers
Crown is yours. It's time for last call. Let's take a look at the most Monday Night football props on DraftKings where the crown is yours. Patrick Mahomes passing touchdowns two plus. That is at minus 147 right now. Jay, A lot of Chiefs on this board. Are you following that path?
- [52:48]
Mike Clay
Yeah. A lot of big names in this game. Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce. So give me Diamond Brown, 29 and a half receiving yards Commander's I think people realize Darby Brown's been the best wide receiver on the Jags this year. Brian Thomas Jr. And Travis Hunter are a mess. In his two healthy games he went for 50 plus. There's nothing unsustainable in terms of like massive long reception skewing that. So give me Diamond Brown to get at least 30.
- [53:08]
Jay Croucher
Commander's Legend Diamond Brown.
- [53:10]
Connor Rogers
I'm going the same path as him. I'm looking for guys that could affect the middle of the field for this Jacksonville passing attack, Brenton Strange One of your favorite players ever, Matthew. Over three and a half receptions. Here's the good News. The last two weeks his usage has gone up. He's run 74% of the routes on third downs. This is the guy they look for almost a 30% target share on third and fourth downs. Brenton Strange. He should get to four catches in this game.
- [53:31]
Jay Croucher
The Jaguars passing offense is broken but they it does seem they Parker Washington as well. But that's part of my thinking here because I'm taking the under on Patrick Mahomes. 200248 and a half passing yards. The Jaguars offense is broken with the exception of Travis Etienne breaking off a couple which means I don't think they're going to have to throw a lot the Chiefs in order to beat the Jaguars. I think. I think this is going to be one of those primetime Unders games in Jacksonville. This feels like an ugly kind of a slug fest here. So Mahomes I don't think he's going to have to air it out. Xavier Worthy questionable as we so he may not be out there or if he is he might be less than 100%. Give me the under on 248.5. He's only hit this number twice so far this year. I don't think he's going to have to throw a crazy amount against the Jaguars. Here are my top players as you see the ranks. I have Mahomes at QB6 but Lawrence at QB18. Hopefully you're not starting any Chiefs running back. Hopefully we see some Bashal Tootin there again waivers Wide receiver worthy is wide receiver 10 but that's again before the questionable designation. Be ready to have a pivot on the chance that he can't go today. Probably still starting Brian Thomas Jr. But we're hoping for signs from signs of life from him. I will say this, I do think Travis Kelce gets in the end zone. It's the day after his birthday. His fiance just released a massive new album as well.
- [54:46]
Mike Clay
Everything's coming up Travis Any upside left for Travis Hunter? His receiving crops 29 and a half.
- [54:50]
Connor Rogers
I think they'll purposely target him in the first half. Early tonight I actually almost took his receptions prop but but I went with Strange who's oddly been more reliable. Yeah, I think he's just going to play offense now.
- [55:00]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, it's not a. It's not a. Not a bet that I wanted to give out on air but like if I was like Travis Hunter to catch a reception on the first drive might be like an interesting one. Shallow cross, some money, like something take.
- [55:11]
Mike Clay
The national hate off.
- [55:12]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, exactly.
- [55:14]
Connor Rogers
See, we should have traded everything for this guy. The second overall pick.
- [55:17]
Jay Croucher
100%. Yeah. So it's just a little bit of that. So, anyway, I hope your Monday night miracle comes through tonight. Mine won't. I'm going. Whatever. Ask an answer. My team's awful. It is what it is. It's closing time. You don't have to go home, but you can't stay here. For Jay and Connor, I'm Matthew. Good luck tonight. We'll see you tomorrow. Peace out.