← Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry
Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry
Week 6 Love/Hate: Ashton Jeanty, Rome Odunze, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Matthew Stafford
00:51:55
October 9: Matthew (@MatthewBerryTMR) and Jay (@croucherJD) detail why Lawrence (@LordDontLose) isn’t with them on set for Love/Hate, then delve into players they’ve circled for Week 6. Ashton Jeanty, Kyren Williams, and Derrick Henry are among the RBs discussed before the duo analyze pass catchers Rome Odunze, Tetairoa McMillan, Calvin Ridley, and Tucker Kraft. They also debate Matthew Stafford, Drake May, and Kyler Murray before wrapping up the show with their favorite bets in Eagles at Giants.
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- [00:00]
Matthew Barry
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- [01:08]
Jay Croucher
By the way, James Cook, who's the top three running back in the sport in terms of fantasy points accumulated, couldn't do anything against the Patriots. Yep.
- [01:16]
Matthew Barry
By the way, can we, before we get to this, can we just point out the fact, like, you hear Jay be like, oh, he's a top three running back in the sport. In the sport. In, like, very British of you, even.
- [01:26]
Jay Croucher
Though you are Australian. Yeah, yeah.
- [01:30]
Matthew Barry
Football show. What sport are we talking about?
- [01:32]
Jay Croucher
That's just providing context. There's a little bit of syntax at the end. Nothing wrong with that.
- [01:35]
Matthew Barry
It's a weird one. Right.
- [01:37]
Jay Croucher
People say that it's like, Josh Allen is the best quarterback in the NFL.
- [01:41]
Matthew Barry
You don't have to say, in the.
- [01:42]
Jay Croucher
NFL, was he the best quarterback of. It's just the way nice, you know.
- [01:45]
Matthew Barry
Loud listen to each day.
- [01:47]
Jay Croucher
In the NFL. Yeah. We say in the NFL.
- [01:49]
Matthew Barry
We do, but not in the sport. Yeah. Sport. Yeah.
- [01:51]
Jay Croucher
Josh Allen's the best quarterback in the sport.
- [01:53]
Matthew Barry
That sounds very British. Fantasy Football Happy hour with Matthew Barry.
- [02:06]
Jay Croucher
All right. Welcome to an intimate dinner with Jay Croucher and Matthew Barry, also known as Fantasy football Happy Hour, as we give you some of the best fantasy analysis in the sport.
- [02:15]
Matthew Barry
I feel.
- [02:16]
Jay Croucher
Yes.
- [02:16]
Matthew Barry
In this. In sport for sure. In the sport, Jay. I feel like. And like it's just to let people in on sort of what's going on here behind the scenes is that for years. For years. You guys know Jay and I had our night together in Buffalo. We rekindled our romance in Dallas a few weeks ago.
- [02:33]
Jay Croucher
Yeah.
- [02:34]
Matthew Barry
But what has happened is. Yeah, it is. We barely got out of Dodge escaping the fuzz there. The authorities. But what I'll say is, is that Connor and Lawrence have said to us and they haven't wanted to discuss it publicly, but privately they've said it to me and I'm sure they've said it to you as well, that the sexual tension is so great that, you know, they constantly say, you two get a room. And so what they have done is they basically said, you know what? We're both going to peace out for today's show. It's the love hate show. And we know there's going to be a lot more love today. So they're, you know, I don't know what they're doing. They're just not here.
- [03:14]
Jay Croucher
An evening, an afternoon alone.
- [03:16]
Matthew Barry
Yeah.
- [03:17]
Jay Croucher
Jonathan Medici, 7 comic Avalon, best show on TV. Thank you, Jonathan. I agree.
- [03:21]
Matthew Barry
I appreciate you only watching one show on tv. Thank you very much.
- [03:25]
Jay Croucher
One of one.
- [03:26]
Matthew Barry
Yeah.
- [03:26]
Jay Croucher
All right, well, on this best show on tv, we're going to talk love hate today. But first of all, guys, usually with us on Thursdays, you know, here Lawrence Jackson who had surgery. Nothing serious. He's fine. He's fine. It's just incapacitated at the moment. So Lawrence Jackson drinks for free.
- [03:43]
Matthew Barry
Yeah.
- [03:43]
Jay Croucher
Get better, Lawrence.
- [03:44]
Matthew Barry
We miss you, buddy. Get back soon now. Get better. He's on the. He's on. He's not on full time ir. We don't.
- [03:51]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, it's a Brock Purdy situation.
- [03:53]
Matthew Barry
He's we to week.
- [03:54]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, exactly.
- [03:55]
Matthew Barry
He's no Amari in Hampton. He's, you know, whatever. He just. He's recovering from a surgery, nothing serious, but he isn't able to make it today. Wasn't able to make it last Sunday. He's TBD for this Sunday.
- [04:05]
Jay Croucher
Yep. Game time decision.
- [04:06]
Matthew Barry
Game time decision. But we miss you, Lawrence. Come back soon.
- [04:08]
Jay Croucher
Yeah. And now Lawrence will tell you that this surgery was planned for a while. But in my eyes, if you just look at the sequence of events, Lawrence Jackson ran the 40 AT AT&T Stadium and then immediately went for surgery after that. So I don't know.
- [04:21]
Matthew Barry
He looks young. Yes, but he is not young.
- [04:23]
Jay Croucher
He's not. All right, well, a guy who is young is Ashton Genti. Yes, sir. Who has turned the corner a little bit of late and he headlines running back Love hate And we heard about Ashton Genti talking about his red zone touches.
- [04:35]
Ashton Genti
Whenever I get the ball, I just want to make the most of my opportunities. Whether it's red zone, whether we're backed up, it doesn't matter. And you know, my opportunities will come when they come.
- [04:48]
Jay Croucher
Kind of along those lines though, like, how do you go respectively lobbling to.
- [04:51]
Matthew Barry
The coaching staff to like, hey, stick with me, let's kind of get me going to help the offense out.
- [04:56]
Ashton Genti
I don't even think it's more of something that I have to say. I think it's just through the work I put in in practice, just showing my coaches that I'm consistent. And then come game time, like whenever they do give me the ball, I make plays and show them that I'm a reliable person each and every single week.
- [05:14]
Jay Croucher
Very measured. Ashton Genti one of the brightest prospects in the sport. As we look at Matthews running back rankings, Ashton Genti coming in at number seven in between Devon Achan and Kyron Williams. Obviously a rough first three weeks for Genti Matthew, but really broke out against the Bears and the Colts is a rough game overall for the Raiders. But Genti finished get some receiving work and now gets a favorable matchup against the team Tennessee Titans.
- [05:37]
Matthew Barry
And that's the point. Look, I mean, honestly, Ashton Genti has fallen so far from where he was drafted early on that we can now put him on the love list. And it's not one of those things that's like, oh, really, you're putting Bijan Robinson on the love list? Like, you know, thanks, Captain Obvious. Like, no, Ash and Genti is now a little bit of a question mark. Although for this week, not for me. You mentioned the passing game usage, Jay, and That's the key. 16% target share over the last two weeks. They finally figured out like, oh, the more we can get the ball in this guy's hands, the better. And I don't know if that's because Brock Bowers has been out and missed a little bit of time and so he's one of the few weapons they have or just because a light bulb has gone on. Here's a guy that was a good pass catcher in college. We should probably use that skill set here in the pros as we try to get something going for Las Vegas. But as I mentioned, 16% target share over the last two weeks. He's also had 42 touches, so just a really big workload over the last two weeks. 42 touches over the last two weeks. And why do we bring up the workload Because Jay, running backs that have seen at least 18 touches against the Tennessee Titans this year are averaging almost 21 fantasy points per game. So you saw it on your screen. Ashton Genti, my running back, seven this week. Geno has not been good. The offense has not been good. But Genty I think is a constant here. I like the matchup. The game's in Las Vegas, so at home against a Tennessee Titans team traveling west that has struggled against pass catching. Running backs. Top 10 day coming for gentle.
- [06:58]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, it's a one man defense in Tennessee and Jeffrey Simmons, so just try not to run directly at him. Question from Chris S. On YouTube Trade Garrett Wilson for Genti. I'd rather have Genti.
- [07:08]
Matthew Barry
Yeah, I think it's a fair trade. Obviously it depends on the rest of your roster construction, what your scoring is or you have point ppr, ppr. But it's certainly a fair trade. I think if we redrafted today, I think both those guys go around the same area. And I will say that on the days that Conor Rogers is actually here, one of the things he has said to us about Garrett Wilson specifically is that if you look like a lot of his production is coming sort of in the fourth quarter during this junk time, which is when a lot of Justin Fields passing production is coming as well. And so how sustainable is that? We like Garrett Wilson. We know he's a talent, you know, but certainly feels like there is a, there's more of a floor with Genty week in, week out than maybe there is with Wilson who at least the last couple of weeks has needed sort of this, this crazy comeback, you know, junk time passing attack. Because we know the jets want to run the ball, they want to be a running offense. The scoreboard just hasn't helped them out that way, so. And look, they're going to be bad for all year long, so that may be consistent.
- [08:08]
Jay Croucher
But I think Gary Wilson is going to have games where he goes 5 for 53. Ashan Genti is going to get 16 to 18 touches every game. Even a game they lost 40 to 6. He's still got a lot of work. I will say Genti too. So you look at his last two games, snap right down against Indianapolis because they were losing by so much in the second half, but still goes 1467 and 5 for 42 through the air. 15.9 fantasy points from a running back when your team loses by 34 points. All things considered, it's pretty good as a return. Also, having watched that game as I watched every snap of my beloved Indianapolis Colts. Genti was close to breaking a few like last like safety tackling. Like he could have easily had a 40 yard breakaway run. So it'll get better for Ashton Genti.
- [08:51]
Matthew Barry
Yeah, for sure. By the way, they're three and a half point favorites at home against the Titans as well. So we're not worried about the titans putting up 40 on them and him getting game script out of the way. I mean the Colts, that just got so out of hand, it's not like they were trailing by a lot. They were trailing by like 35 points or whatever. 33 points. Exactly right.
- [09:07]
Jay Croucher
Okay. My additions to the love list, Kyron Williams, who last we saw Kyron Williams was in his greatest moment fumbling at the one against the Niners. But better days ahead for Kyron beginning this week against the Baltimore Ravens. It's so strange, Matt, you can make the case right now the two worst teams in football are the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals, which I don't think you would have said a month ago. Obviously injuries playing in a ton there. And if you look at the most fancy points allowed to running backs this year, Bengals 1, Ravens 2. The Ravens are even reinvigorated the Texans much maligned run game last week. Kyron Williams, he's their seven and a half point favorite at the moment in Baltimore. Lamar Jackson, not practicing, not expected to go. Expect they're going to have game script. Expect they're going to run the ball a ton. Expect that Kyron Williams gets into the end zone as well.
- [09:55]
Matthew Barry
Yeah, for sure. I mean again just massive workload here. Has we seen some Blake Quorum? Sure we have. But your point to the, to the matchup on the road at Baltimore, like I like everyone, Rams are seven and a half point favorites in this game. Over under is 44 and a half. I think I might take the over here. I guess part of the challenge here is can Cooper Rush move the ball against the Ravens. I feel like this has kind of a backdoor cover feel to it. Maybe not necessarily the seven and a half, but the 44 and a half. I do think I could see them getting over because I think Stafford has a big game. Kind of a preview of what may be coming in quarterbacks, but I think the entire Rams offense after a disappointing loss.
- [10:32]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, they should have won that game.
- [10:34]
Matthew Barry
They should have won that game and now they've had 10 days to prepare for candidly the worst defense in the NFL.
- [10:39]
Jay Croucher
Yeah. By the way, Puka Nakua in that game, his receiving proposal 103 and a half. I don't think I've ever seen a number that high. Even like Cooper cup in 2021. He was being set like hot like 98 and a half.
- [10:51]
Matthew Barry
Yeah.
- [10:51]
Jay Croucher
Puka Nakua just incredibly favorable matchup and obviously his target share is through the roof.
- [10:56]
Matthew Barry
Well and part of that by the way, is because Niku is having such an unbelievable season, people will bet it. Like I think DraftKings is keep raising that number because they're like most people are taking the over. Whatever number we set for Puka, I bet you the majority of bettors are taking the over is there it's. But it's been a great season and as long as they can stay healthy, him, Adams, Williams, Stafford, all very favorable matchups against the Ravens this Sunday.
- [11:19]
Jay Croucher
Yep. Let's get to another favorable matchup and that's Rashad White going up against the Niners, whose defense doesn't look as imposing without Nick Bosa. Go gone for the season now. I thought there might be some uncertainty or some usage for Sean Tucker and the offense and there really wasn't. It was Rashad White's show.
- [11:35]
Matthew Barry
Yeah, I mean that was the thing, right. What was it going to look like without Bucky Irving? And the answer is it was going to look like a lot like Rashad White. Rashad White again. And oh, by the 808 we mentioned Rashad White, 75% of the Buccaneers team running back touches last week went to Rashad white. Had an 81% snap share, played 81% of the snaps, I should say as well. And then you think about, okay, somebody that's going to get a lot of work in San Francisco. That's pretty good. Three out of the five running backs to face the 49ers this year have gotten at least 120 yards from scrimmage against them. They've given up 120 or more yards to scrimmage to an opposing running back in three or five games this season. The other thing that it's important here you mentioned, you know, not having Nick Bosa. But where the Niners have really struggled this year is against pass catching running backs, which is obviously such a big part of of Rashad White's game, they actually allowed the fifth most receptions to opposing running backs. The Niners do. So Rashad White, who's getting a massive workload, heavily involved in the passing game in a favorable matchup against the 49ers. He's a top 12 running back for me this week. We don't expect Bucky Irving for at least another week.
- [12:37]
Jay Croucher
Yep, a Lot of trust in that offense. Question from Tanish Joshi, Rashad White or devonte Adams to start this week?
- [12:46]
Matthew Barry
I'm still going with Devonte Adams. I get it. Well, you'd go Rashad White, I think so.
- [12:50]
Jay Croucher
Just because of the workload and just because I'm a bit worried that Devonte, who is dealing with the hamstring and also I don't think they're going to need to rely on him a ton in the fourth quarter against Baltimore. So I think it's close. Obviously you don't feel good as a man or woman benching Devonte Adams for Rashad White, just in a nutshell, but I think this kind of calls for it.
- [13:09]
Matthew Barry
I get the question. I think I would probably say White is the floor play, Adams is the upside play. So I think it depends on what your matchup looks like, who your, who else you have on your roster. It's fair about the hamstring. Let's see how that plays. It doesn't seem like he's in danger of missing this game, but to your point, if the game gets out of hand, do they pull him to save it? I just sort of, like I said in general when I have a question like that where like they both have good matchups, they're both going to, you know, play a lot of snaps, I just go with a more talented NFL player and I just think devonte Adams is a better NFL player than Rashad White is.
- [13:45]
Jay Croucher
Yep.
- [13:46]
Matthew Barry
But I certainly get that like there is a Florida Rashad White that isn't there with devonte Adams who could easily again, Puka goes crazy, Kyron bounces two in and then next thing you know they're they're up 357 in the third and they're like, hey Devonte, let's just.
- [13:59]
Jay Croucher
You know, yeah, Devonte could go off for 140 and two touchdowns against his defense. He could also just not have to do much and be 4:47 or whatever. My next addition to the love list is Josh Jacobs, who I think has become like the best anonymous star in the NFL. When does anyone ever talk about Josh Jacobs going the rushing title and he's a key part of one of the four favorites to win the Super Bowl. Just one of the best running backs in the sport. And he's a two touchdown favorite against the Bengals. They're coming off a bye. He had a little knee thing against the Cowboys where he came out and came back in. He should be fresher, should be healthier and just there are a few better bets to get into the end zone this week than Josh Jacobs.
- [14:37]
Matthew Barry
Yeah. I mean, off the top of my head, I think he scored in something like 14 of the last 15 games. Yeah. Just at some insane rate like that. Quick note there that if you are given the knee injury with Jacobs, Emmanuel Wilson feels like he has now established himself as the number two there in Green Bay. So if I had, Jacobs might stash Emmanuel Wilson just to sort of grab somebody. Marshawn Lloyd is coming back here soon, too. But Emmanuel Wilson, if for some reason Jacobs missed, it would be Emmanuel Wilson at the moment. But yeah, it's. I think it's a combination of three things. I think it's. Number one is he's in Green Bay, so it's a small market city. Right. He's not in New York or Chicago, Louisiana. Et cetera. Number two is. This is going to sound dumb, but his name is fairly boring.
- [15:20]
Jay Croucher
Yes.
- [15:20]
Matthew Barry
Josh. Like, I feel like. I feel like a lot of. Not everyone, but a lot of the superstar players have unique names. Yeah, right. You know, even Kyron Williams. Like, I'm just trying to think of, like, you know, Quin Chon, Judkins, Alvin Camara, Saquon, Barkley, like, those are all Puka, Nukua, Amon, Ross, St. Brown. Those are all unique names. Josh Jacobs is just like. Josh Jacobs could be like your insurance adjuster.
- [15:44]
Ashton Genti
Yeah.
- [15:45]
Jay Croucher
The funny thing is, though, is, like, Jonathan Taylor, it doesn't sound like a fancy. But I don't know, something like presidential about Jonathan Taylor. JT as well. Josh Jacobs, he's got screwed because everyone else is named JJ already. So he doesn't get jj, doesn't get jj.
- [15:57]
Unknown Guest
Right.
- [15:58]
Matthew Barry
Justin Jefferson is there. He's not even the best JJ in the NFL. Respectfully. And the other thing is, is that like, Josh Jacobs is sort of a. Is a guy that kind of like, keeps his head down, minds his own business. He's not making boastful quotes. He's not on social media doing a bunch of crazy stuff. He's just sort of like.
- [16:14]
Jay Croucher
He's been in the playoffs much, though.
- [16:16]
Matthew Barry
Yeah, he's just sort of like. He is. This isn't the best phrase, but he's like. He's Johnny Lunch Pale. You know what I mean? Does, like he just keeps his head down, does his job. Like, he would have fit perfectly on the Patriots, you know, that like the old Belichick Patriot way, you know, do your job. Like, I feel like that's Josh Jacobs. Like, that's all he does is just show up, convert, go home.
- [16:34]
Jay Croucher
Yep. Well, I Think he's going to convert in the red zone this week? Got a question.
- [16:38]
Matthew Barry
But he should be a bigger star than he is. I agree with you there.
- [16:41]
Jay Croucher
Jake Jacobs or Judkins rest of season? Matthew?
- [16:45]
Matthew Barry
Jake. Why am I Josh Jacobs? It's so weird. For some reason I went to Brandon Jacobs. I'm like why are we talking about Brandon Jacobs?
- [16:53]
Jay Croucher
Brandon Jacobs.
- [16:55]
Matthew Barry
Yeah, exactly. Ahmaud Bradshaw. Right. Exactly. Wow, that's a really good one. I'm going to say Josh Jacobs just because I think the offense is better. But I mean it's close. Judkins is right there. Judkins and Jacobs are both rest of the season. Both top 12ish running backs. They're both like borderline RB1s.
- [17:14]
Jay Croucher
Here's the reason I would go Jacobs is, it's very simple. But the packers are the, I know, the fourth or the fifth best team in the league and the Browns are the fourth or the fifth worst team in the league. And just by virtue of game script, Jacobs is just going to score more touchdowns than quinch on Judkins. And I think the yardage isn't going to be that far off. It's just the touchdowns are going to.
- [17:33]
Matthew Barry
Be so disparate and the passing game usage like they're not scared to use Jacobs in the passing game. Judkins, it doesn't seem like he's a big part yet of their, their third down offense.
- [17:42]
Jay Croucher
So I think the packers are about to go on a little bit of a roll here. Coming off the bye home to the Bengals with two touchdown favorites at the Cardinals at the Steelers on NBC and Peacock, both those guys on the road, not layups but they'll be favored in both. Then home to the Panthers which has, you know, two touchdowns for Josh Jacobs written all over it. So I think the packers who have been a little bit uneven so far, they can for all the two 1 and 1.
- [18:08]
Matthew Barry
Right. And then then home to the Eagles on Monday Night football in Week 10, but then Week 11 at the Giants. So five of the next six games are games in which they will be favored. All of which I think off the top of my head are bottom half of the NFL in terms of rush defense. The Steelers aren't the Steelers anymore. Yeah, I agree with you. I think this is going to be a really nice run for the packers in general and specifically Josh Jacobs because they're going to be favored against teams that struggle to stop the run.
- [18:33]
Jay Croucher
Yep. Comment from Bar Hop is his name Josh Jacobs is so forgettable you just forgot it in three seconds.
- [18:39]
Matthew Barry
100% true.
- [18:40]
Jay Croucher
That's still a little disturbing that you immediately go to Brandon Jacobs after he's talking about Josh Jacobs for two months.
- [18:46]
Matthew Barry
I don't know. It was so stupid. But, like, also, whoever tweeted it or whatever he put.
- [18:50]
Jay Croucher
He.
- [18:51]
Matthew Barry
He puts it. Yeah, an apostrophe before the S. Like, he doesn't. It was Jake Ubs. Like, almost like, you know, like, you know, some guy named Jacob who, you know, has Quinton Jenkins on his team or something.
- [19:04]
Jay Croucher
It just possessive article.
- [19:05]
Matthew Barry
A bit of brain fart.
- [19:06]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, that's.
- [19:07]
Matthew Barry
I'm also not that bright, so just keep in mind I'm losing my mind in my old age.
- [19:11]
Ashton Genti
Yeah.
- [19:12]
Jay Croucher
Yeah. This is the man who chases Pinot Grigio with Diet Cook. Sometimes the wiring goes off in your brain as a result.
- [19:16]
Matthew Barry
That is factually correct.
- [19:17]
Jay Croucher
All right, let's get to others receiving votes headlined by and you love me despite it.
- [19:21]
Matthew Barry
That is why exactly. The fire burns bright between us.
- [19:24]
Jay Croucher
Indeed. Well, the fire is burning bright for Quinchon Judkins, who continues to just get massive workload. Matthew, I think a key thing, too is that the Browns defense is so good, these games aren't getting out of hand enough for him to lose the ability to just keep running the ball a little bit at least.
- [19:40]
Matthew Barry
Yeah. You mentioned the workload over the last three weeks. The only people averaging more touches per game are Chris McCaffrey and the aforementioned Josh Jacobs.
- [19:47]
Ben Johnson
So.
- [19:48]
Matthew Barry
So he. He's got 22 touches per game over the last three weeks, and now he gets Pittsburgh. It's a bottom 12 run defense in terms of rush yards allowed to opposing running backs. So we like Judkins again, Steelers. Not the Steelers of old. Jecory Crosky. Merritt. Bill, you sign my guy right there as well. Breakout game for him last week. We thought this was coming. 70% of the team's running back rush attempts last week. I don't think that that changes now. Like, you're not putting that genie back into the bottle. No one has a higher yards per carry average this year than Jaquori Crosby. Merit. Among running backs, he's averaging 6.6 yards per carry. By the way, the Bears allow the most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. So JCM or Bill should get into the end zone on Monday night. I'm sorry. Yeah. On Monday night against Chicago. And then finally. Get your popcorn ready.
- [20:31]
Jay Croucher
Buckle up.
- [20:32]
Matthew Barry
Rico Dowdle. Yeah. Going back to Dallas. The. The revenge game. Everyone had no idea. They wanted Mike Parsons, Enrico Dowdle back to back.
- [20:42]
Jay Croucher
Unbelievable.
- [20:42]
Matthew Barry
Unbelievable. But Cowboys allow the Six months fantasy points to opposing running backs. Massive workload. We don't know if Cuba Hubbard is back. Didn't practice yesterday. But the expectation now is that Hubbard will either miss this game or be limited. And so Rico Dowdle, I think is a viable flex in a good matchup against the Cowboys.
- [20:59]
Jay Croucher
Yep. By the way, Jakarta Crossley merit the number one running back by PFF grade so far, which doesn't factor in volume as much, but just on a per play basis, to your point, leading the NFL in yards per carry. He's just really good.
- [21:09]
Matthew Barry
Super. He's explosive and powerful and elusive. And so to your point, all the PFF metrics don't necessarily translate into fantasy points. What? But they do give you a baseline to say like, oh, this isn't just a guy that happened to get into the end zone on a couple of broken plays or whatever. It's like, oh, no, no, no. This is a special talent. There is a reason why Connor Rodgers ranked him ahead of RJ Harvey in his pre draft rankings. This is somebody that, had he been able to play more than one game in Arizona last year, would have been, you know, possibly a day to pick or an early day three pick as opposed to the seventh round where he went. And it's one of the reasons why the Commanders, a team that was contending this year, that is contending, that has super bowl aspirations, was like, hey, Brian Robinson, we're good to let you go somewhere else because we believe in Jacquary Crosky Merritt. Call me Bill.
- [21:55]
Jay Croucher
Okay, from that love, let's get to the heist. Jump to Derek Henry, a guy whose PFF grade has fallen off a cliff this year and so is his production as a proud, proud member of your fantasy team.
- [22:07]
Matthew Barry
I don't know that he's. I don't know that he's solely responsible for 05. He's, he has had a big hand in it as well. He's been brutal. There's no question about it. Right? I mean, since week two, he's running back 46 on a points per game basis, he's averaging just 12 touches a game. He's averaging under eight fantasy points per game. I mean, for a guy that went in the first round in most fantasy drafts, second round in ours because of course we were super flexed and so I went quarterback in the one. But like to get running back 46 production out of your second round running back again, there are other people that help to own five, but the king, more of a prince these days, you don't like the matchup against the Rams, they give it the 5/5th fewest yards to opposing running backs. They're giving up just 3.5 yards per carry. And you know, with Lamar Jackson not expected to play, this offense just looks brutal under Cooper Rush. And so if you are the Rams who already have a good run defense aren't going to be like we'll take our chances with Cooper Rush and we're going to load the box and just whether it's, whether it's in his head because the fumbles or the offensive line isn't gelling or maybe finally Father Time has caught up with Derek Henry and he's lost this step. I can't tell you exactly why it hasn't been there this year. All I know is that it hasn't been there this year. And nothing about this matchup or what we've seen from Derek Henry over the last four weeks lets you think, oh, this is the year he, this is the week that he puts it together and gets it out. I haven't running back 27 because he's always a threat to fall into the end zone. But he did last week, which he did last week. But that even last week when he fell into the end zone, it's not like he had a massive game. He just barely got to double digit fantasy point. So again he's a low end flex. He. It's the lowest I think I've ever had Derek Henry in my career as a fantasy writer. He's running back 27. It's sad to see. I hope he gets better for my team. For Derek, we like Derrick Henry here, but yeah, tough day at the office.
- [24:02]
Jay Croucher
Yeah. To me the concern with Henry, it's not so much. All right. He struggles against the Texans with Cooper Rush's quarterback, whatever that's bound to happen or at least a good chance to happen. It's the fact that when they played with Lamar against the Browns, Lions and Chiefs didn't do anything in those games either. And that just seemed impossible based on how efficient he was last year. A guy who's going to struggle for efficiency this weekend, I think is Michael Carter, who plays the Indianapolis Colts. Michael Carter got a ton of workload against the Titans for the Cardinals. With Trey Benson and James Conner out, you suspect that the Cardinals are not going to be desperate to feature Amari Du after what went down in Arizona last week. But it's a tough matchup against the Colts. The Colts run defense is not overwhelming, but it's more the fact that the Colts are seven point favorites I'm old enough, Matthew, to remember when the Indianapolis Colts at home in Week one were underdogs the Miami Dolphins. How things have changed since then. They are now touchdown favorites over the Cardinals. And Michael Carter, I think, is going to struggle to get game script. And if he couldn't be efficient against the Titans, I don't think he's going to be efficient against the Colts.
- [25:05]
Matthew Barry
Yeah, I think all of that's fair. I mean, what has changed for the Colts? They've allowed you, Mr. Bandwagon, to jump on board. Like, if you want to know, if there's, if there's a. If there's a way to sort of tell, hey, how did, how is this team doing? Is Jay in or out? On, like, Right, exactly like you.
- [25:24]
Jay Croucher
I'm full of shoe.
- [25:25]
Matthew Barry
Yeah, exactly. You bailed on your Saints and Giants pretty quickly and now you're a Colts go call. Yeah.
- [25:30]
Jay Croucher
Go for our time, ultimately.
- [25:32]
Matthew Barry
Yeah. So anyway, Bandwaggy J is in on the Colts and I get it. They're a good team. They're. They're more than a touchdown favorite at home against Carter. Will they. The only argument for Carter is I do think he's. Because I think there's a chance that they'll use him a little bit more in the passing game. We just don't know what the fallout from Amari Dardo last week is. That was as boneheaded a play as there has been in the NFL this year. Yes. AD Mitchell did it the week before, and in both cases, they cost their team a win. Had. I mean, certainly if DeMacardo crosses the goal line successfully, Cardinals win that game. There's no question. AD Mitchell, it was still more of a little bit of a back and forth. Had he. Had he. You know.
- [26:13]
Jay Croucher
Yeah.
- [26:13]
Matthew Barry
Had he gotten that touchdown. There's still a chance the Rams win. It is. They do face each other. I wonder if they'll want to hug each other at midfield. Maybe they should exchange jerseys.
- [26:22]
Jay Croucher
Yeah.
- [26:23]
Matthew Barry
You did a dumb play. You did a dumb play. Let's exchange jersey. My question, though, is there's been a lot of social media fallout between the. Between coach Gannon and DeMarcuso after that play, and so do they. Does he overcorrect, you know what I mean, and try to play DiMarcardo? I don't know. I. I think volume gets him there, but I think he's a. He's a risky flex. It's just whether he'll get some passing down work in a game in which they're touchdown underdogs. But Certainly lower expectations for Michael Carter this week despite the big usage last week for him against Carolina.
- [26:53]
Jay Croucher
There's a material chance that the Cardinals, with their schedule just the level team, there's a material chance they missed the playoffs by one game and if they do, that'll be a tough pill to swallow.
- [27:02]
Matthew Barry
All right, I would have, I mean, maybe I'm too much of a jerk. I literally would have cut him the next day.
- [27:08]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, I don't know. It's tough. But yeah, Jonathan Ganim Clay is going to do more than cut him from the team on the sideline. He was not impressed when I.
- [27:17]
Matthew Barry
Again going off on a tangent here. So you tell me if I think I'm crazy. Let me rephrase. Tell me if you think I'm crazy for this. Right. You know, because there's other reasons I'm crazy. But like when I coached and I've done a lot of coaching in my life, but you know, kids and my rule always with them is like, I don't care. I said, listen, we all have physical limitations. We are all learning the sport. It's okay. I don't care if you don't make a play. I don't care if somebody beats you to the ball or you know, is faster than you or makes a shot over you or whatever it is. I don't care about that. What I will care about is a mental mistake because that's the one thing we can all control is paying attention. You know, not being in La la land, knowing where you're supposed to be on the field, you know, paying attention. If somebody beats you physically. That is what it is, right? We only, we can only be as good as, you know, the ability God has given us. But everyone can control mental. And that was always sort of the message I gave the kids was just sort of like that's, that's where I'll get upset is if you, if you're just not paying attention. Because that's the one thing we can control. And so if on a professional level.
- [28:17]
Jay Croucher
Yeah.
- [28:17]
Matthew Barry
When you make a mistake like that.
- [28:19]
Jay Croucher
Particular after ID Mitchell had done it the week before as well.
- [28:21]
Matthew Barry
Exactly. And it was such a big story. And you know, the stuff that's come out about the Cardinals is they were like, we talked about it, we, you know, and, and for him to do that, a kid that's like a part time player, you're like the fourth string running back right After Connor, after Benson, after Carter. Now we get to DeMarcardo, you know what I mean? And for you, like, dude, you finally got it. I cut him the next day. And maybe I'm too harsh, but at some point, it's just like, it's a right.
- [28:47]
Jay Croucher
Ruben, regular comment. I show up for the tangents.
- [28:49]
Matthew Barry
Well, there you go. You just got one. Ruben.
- [28:51]
Jay Croucher
I think the issue is, is that if you cut Amari Demo Carter for that, what happens if Trey McBride does it the next week? Trey McBride. Because it's about the precedent. Like, y' all dreaming, right? That's the issue.
- [29:02]
Matthew Barry
No, but by the way, like, you know, I always hate conversations like that because people say that as well. Like, I actually had a conversation, a business conversation about this earlier that sort of relates to this about, like, can we treat this person differently than we treat this person? And the answer is yes. There are different rules.
- [29:19]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, No, I agree.
- [29:21]
Matthew Barry
There are different rules. I'm going to tell you something. NBC Sports treats me really well. They're great. They're really great to me. This is my fourth year at the company. Do they treat me as well as they treat Mike Tirico? No, they do not. Do they treat me as well as they treat Maria Taylor? No, they do not. And by the way, they're right. They're right to, like, I have no issue with that.
- [29:42]
Jay Croucher
Let's. Let's jump to Ben Johnson, who would not have been happy if Mario did that.
- [29:47]
Matthew Barry
Like, yeah, rules are different. And just. I wish people would just admit that.
- [29:53]
Jay Croucher
Yeah. No, I think it's fair. Yeah. I don't.
- [29:55]
Matthew Barry
Yeah.
- [29:55]
Jay Croucher
A.D. mitchell, same deal. Like, if you. There is less, there's less room to play with when you're fighting for your spot on the tank.
- [30:03]
Matthew Barry
Nothing happened to Jonathan Taylor like last. Last week. Jonathan Taylor did the same thing last week.
- [30:09]
Jay Croucher
Yeah.
- [30:09]
Matthew Barry
And the next week he got a massive workload.
- [30:11]
Jay Croucher
Yeah.
- [30:11]
Matthew Barry
AD Mitchell does it this week. Now it's, hey, Ashton. Ashton Dulens, welcome to the world. The more kids understand that. That just. Yes. Life is not fair. Not everyone gets a participation ribbon. Just. I'm sorry.
- [30:26]
Jay Croucher
Yep. No. Good speech. All right, let's hear from Ben Johnson on Roman Dunes leadership before we get to love hate on the pass catchers.
- [30:34]
Matthew Barry
He's a pro.
- [30:35]
Ben Johnson
He's a pro. He comes into the building and he looks to get. Get after work. And, you know, I think he's taken to that receiver room. Those guys really all mesh well together. You know, it's the hard work mentality yet, you know, I know he's had some production come his way that can kind of come in waves, if you will. And he started off hot here. Hopefully that'll continue to go, but I know he just, he's just a guy that's committed to winning right now and whatever it takes for us as an offense to score points and as a team to win ball games. And so I see him as a leader here on this team.
- [31:11]
Jay Croucher
Ben Johnson, very intense. It kind of frightens me a little bit. But Roma Dunese has been a big beneficiary of Ben Johnson taking over in Chicago. Roma Dunze is fourth among all wide receivers in fantasy points per game behind only Puka Nakura, Monroe, St. Brown and Emeka Igbuka. Now he gets a relatively favorable matchup against your commanders.
- [31:30]
Matthew Barry
Matthew Last four games they've given up six touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. Six touchdowns in four games. They also give up the fifth most yards per game on deep passes. A Dunesday of course leads the Bear in deep passes. We talk a lot about Javante Williams as being one of the biggest, if not the biggest steal of draft day. Roman Dunes is right there. He was routinely ranked behind DJ Moore. He was behind DJ Moore and adp. I had him behind DJ Moore. We thought there might be a breakout coming based on the preseason usage. We talked about it in the preseason on Fansville Happy Hour. But do we think he'd be a top four wide receiver a month into the season? We did not. So Roma Dunze showing why he was a first run pick last year. He's got an end zone target in every single game this year and out of the buy another week to sort of like hey, get Ben Johnson's offense. Okay, now we've played some games, we can sort of clean some stuff up. I think you'll see more Colston Loveland and Luther Burden out of the break. I think you'll see some more kalmanungay. I always get that wrong. There we go. I think out of the break the younger players will get more run out of the bye. But it is clear this is a a pretty good passing offense and it goes through Roma Dunze. I'm at wide receiver six this week. Fire him up.
- [32:42]
Jay Croucher
Okay. Comment on YouTube. That's coming through. Suave man. Rico or a Dunes in the flex.
- [32:51]
Matthew Barry
I'm going a Dunes a there. I'm going like just, you know, on the road at Washington. My commander's four and a half point favorites. I think the Bears are going to throw. You just get such a massive volume again. The six touchdowns in four weeks they've given it to wide receivers. He's gotten an end zone target every week. I you know, and there's a chance that Hubbard comes there. There's also a chance, by the way, that the Cowboys whose offense is so good, there's a chance that Dowdle gets game scripted out of this game because you could see a scenario where the Cowboys offense is just rolling on all cylinders. We've talked about how well Dak is playing and so the Panthers were able to keep it close last week obviously in their comeback win. But you know there's there the Cowboys, the Panthers defense is no match. They're on the road at Dallas and I could see Dak just going on off on the next thing you know Dowdle's just been sort of game scripted out of it and they've just got to go pass heavy indeed. All right.
- [33:42]
Jay Croucher
A Monroe St. Brown it's not often and may not be the case the rest of the year that the Lions are two and a half point underdogs in any game. They don't have any cornerbacks at the moment think that they're going to have to throw and be in a throw script much more than usual on Sunday Night Football. So you're obviously starting him on Ross St. Brown regardless, but I think that he is going to explode on Sunday night. He's the favorite to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns this year. The guys who normally do that like Randy Moss, Devonte Adams, Justin Jack, like ex receivers, Monorail is just such a weapon out of the slot and has been largely unguardable in the red zone. Obviously the passing game just runs through him. Jared Goff has such an incredible rapport with the Monroe St. Brown and even though they run the ball a ton, he still gets his work and I think they may have to throw more than often more more often than usual against the Chiefs.
- [34:29]
Matthew Barry
Yeah, I am shocked by the way I continue to be shocked that I thought this line would move. But the Chiefs are the line has moved towards the Chiefs. The Chiefs are minus two and a half and I don't understand what I.
- [34:39]
Jay Croucher
Think it's the Detroit defense secondary is an issue and also the fact that Mahomes and the Chiefs passing offense I think looked as good the past two weeks as it has in two years. So I think that's a little bit.
- [34:50]
Matthew Barry
And they're off the loss and so now they're back home and maybe they're motivated a little bit more. Yeah, it's still a weird one.
- [34:55]
Jay Croucher
Yeah. I mean if they lose this at 2 and 4 the Kansas City Chiefs they might be the best team in football and they could be 2 and 4 with a loss here. So it'll be.
- [35:01]
Matthew Barry
Yeah, to your point about Amon Ross, St. Brown, we don't need to talk about him a lot more because everyone that has missed start, but he's one of the few players in fantasy football that have both a floor and a ceiling. He's got an incredibly high floor, but he's also a threat to have a, you know, go eight for 102 touchdowns any game.
- [35:19]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, every week he's just going to be 8 for 75 with a very good chance of scoring a touchdown. All right, let's jump to Tetero McMillan, a guy who has had trouble scoring touchdowns, doesn't. Doesn't have any this season so far. But the breakout is coming for T Mac Matthews. Just a matter of time. And this matchup is as good as any against Dallas.
- [35:36]
Matthew Barry
Yeah, I think the breakout could come this week. They've just missed a few times on some touchdowns. I don't think we're going to see a Trey McBride situation this year. I think they're going to start coming and I think they're going to start coming this week. Remember, Tedro McMillan has had at least eight targets in every single game this season. Why do I bring that up? Because wide receivers that have seen at least seven targets against the Cowboys are averaging 26 fantasy points per game this year. Every single one of those wide receivers they got at least seven targets against the Cowboys scored at least 15 fantasy points. So Ted Roman, who has gotten at least eight targets in every game, he should get seven. He should meet that threshold. They're underdogs. We know that the Cowboys offense is going to be really good. So, yeah, I think a breakout game. A oh, this is why this guy was drafted. So high game is coming for Teddy Rowan McMillan and I think it's this week. He's my wide receiver. 15 agree with all that.
- [36:27]
Jay Croucher
A couple weeks ago, it looked like Calvin Ridley might be honestly on his way out of the league, the way he was playing. But showed really promising signs of life against the Cardinals. Not just the production, but the target share was heavily up, as you can see first four weeks, 21% target share up to 27% against Arizona. Saw those 10 targets goes 5 for 131, 18 fancy points per game. Looks like this is going to be the Ellic IO Manor show, which is not a show that many people buy tickets to. But Calvin Ridley seemed to re establish himself as the number one guy. Now he gets one of the worst secondaries in the NFL in Las Vegas. So I think Calvin Ridley not fully Buying back in yet because it was just one game. He had five catches. But at the same time, I think you can feel okay starting him as a flex guy.
- [37:10]
Matthew Barry
Yeah. I mean, again, we like the matchup against the Raiders defense, their bottom three scoring defense overall. So we actually think Cam Ward should have some success here. And I think what's important is, like, not only was Ridley getting a lot of looks last week, but he was getting them in key moments as the Titans were trying to make that crazy comeback. Ultimately, that they did just look better. I saw he just looked better. We liked Calvin Ridley in the preseason. We're saying, like, hey, this guy got a massive target share last year in this same offense and now with a better quarterback, that in theory is going to be more accurate than the guys that were throwing the ball for the Titans last year. That we like Calvin Ridley. And then it was just brutal for the first four weeks. But a couple things happened. First off, I think he got healthier, to your point. And more importantly, by the way, the schedule got a lot easier. The Titans played this brutal schedule for the first four weeks of the season, played some of the toughest defenses in the NFL, Broncos, etc. And now it eases up. Right. Last week, Arizona. This week, the Raiders and Las Vegas. And so it just. It gets a little bit easier for. For the Titans. Tighten up.
- [38:09]
Jay Croucher
Yes. Also gets easier for Tucker Craft, who gets the Cincinnati Bengals, who have a case. Yes. Tuck daddy, tuck wagon, who is, I think, going forward, going to be a top five tight end in the sport, and he's number six in your rankings. Matthew.
- [38:27]
Matthew Barry
Yeah. First off, you had me at Cincinnati.
- [38:29]
Jay Croucher
Yeah.
- [38:30]
Matthew Barry
You know what? One of the problems when you have a player facing the Cincinnati Bengals is figuring out which of the 8 billion bad stats you have at your disposal. To use to describe the ineptitude of the Cincinnati Bengals, here are the two that I've chosen for this week. The Bengals have allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends this season. No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing tight ends than your Cincinnati Bengals. By the way, they're also bottom five of the NFL in terms of receptions and receiving yards allowed to position. So, again, if you have a tight end in the sport facing the Cincinnati Bengals, it is an automatic start. He's my tight end. Six on the week. The other thing about the packers, again, they've had two weeks to think about that tie to the Cowboys. Think about the packers, literally, when they destroyed my. No, they destroyed my commanders on Thursday Night Football. And we're all sitting here like I think at that point they were the favorites to win the NFC and go to the Super Bowl. They were the betting favorites. Then they lose the Browns. They tie the Cowboys, a game that everyone thought was would be an easy win for the Packers. And Micah's return, they have to kick a last second field goal just to even get to the tie. Some questions about, you know, the timekeeping. Wow. No. No home loving and no home cooking from the timekeeper.
- [39:44]
Jay Croucher
Unbelievable.
- [39:44]
Matthew Barry
Yeah. And so now they're. They're O1 and 1 in their last two games and they've had two weeks to think about this.
- [39:51]
Jay Croucher
Yeah.
- [39:51]
Matthew Barry
Returning home to Lambeau against Joe Flacco making his start. By the way, we talked about comeback player of the year Joe Flacco yesterday that he was coming to Cincinnati. The news came out after the show yesterday. Joe Flacco making the start this week. He will be the starting quarterback again, Jay, of your Cincinnati Bengals. So what could possibly go wrong? My immobil. Joe Flacco behind that line against Micah Parsons who have two weeks to prepare and he's been there for three days.
- [40:16]
Jay Croucher
Yeah. Good luck, Joe.
- [40:17]
Matthew Barry
All right.
- [40:18]
Jay Croucher
Amanda doesn't need any luck. And headlines others are saving votes is Stefon Diggs who the past two weeks, Matthew Stefan Diggs has been as good as any wide receiver in football.
- [40:26]
Matthew Barry
40% target share over the last two weeks. He's the 10th best wide receiver in fantasy football without scoring a touchdown. Those are coming. He's my wide receiver 17 of the week. How about Cortland Sutton, who's been a top 16 wide receiver in every week of the season this year except for one now he gets the jets, who give up more yards per reception to wide receivers than a team in the sport. Devonta Smith has at least 27% target share in three of the last four games. And the Giants allow the third most fantasy points to wide receivers. There's lots of questions about the Eagles passing game, but I think some of them get answered tonight against the Bird. I'm sorry. Against the Giants and then a couple of tight ends. How about Mason Taylor who we've talked about this show a lot. He led all tight ends with an 88 utilization score last week. He's just out there quite a bit. 25% target share each of the last two weeks. The matchup against Denver doesn't scare me because we figure sir Tan is on. Garrett Wilson. And finally Jake Tongass. The tongman. The tongler.
- [41:19]
Jay Croucher
Tong daddy.
- [41:20]
Matthew Barry
The tongler. Yeah, the Tong daddy. Look. 23% target share last week for Jake, he's actually scored quietly in three out of five games this year. We don't expect George Kittle back for at least one more week. And the Buccaneers in each of the last two games have allowed multiple touchdown passes to opposing tight ends. Feels like they're going to get Jennings back this week, but maybe not Pearsall. Looks like probably another week of Mac Jones. We're, you know, we don't have 100% certainty, but looks. But it does seem like there's somewhat of a connection of Tongass and Mac Jones. And certainly we know that the 49ers offense and Kyle Shanahan love to use the tight end, especially in the red zone. So I think you could do worse for a streamer than Jake Tongass, who is my number 15 tight end.
- [42:00]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, we need George Kittle back so we don't have to keep saying the word Tongass. It's very strange.
- [42:03]
Matthew Barry
It's a stranger.
- [42:05]
Jay Croucher
Okay.
- [42:05]
Matthew Barry
Kind of like it. Romantic date. What's making you uncomfortable about Tongass?
- [42:09]
Jay Croucher
Tongus. Okay. Well, another thing that you don't like is T. Higgins this way against the Green Bay Packers. You mentioned tough matchup T. Higgins. Perhaps he'll fare a little bit better with Joe Flacco, but still an extremely tough environment to go into.
- [42:22]
Matthew Barry
Yeah. I mean, only one team in the NFL allows fewer yards per game on deep passes than the Green Bay Packers. They also have the fourth lowest completion rate. And so the Bengals have the lowest implied team total in week number six. You just don't feel great about T. Higgins in his first game with Joe Flacco under Center. Only two wide receivers this entire year have scored more than 10.1 fantasy points against the packers this year. Deebo Samuel and George Pickens, neither of whom are kind of like similar to T. Higgins. Pickens, you know, kind of a deep threat. I think Ja' Mar Chase will be okay because he's Ja' Marr Chase and they'll take some deep shots here. Debo, they used all sort of some of the gadget stuff there and he was the only guy. But I want to see. I think things will be better for Teagans with Flacco after this week, but he's merely my wide receiver. 38. I'm taking a wait and I'm still starting Chase, but I'm taking a wait and see on T. Higgins this week against the Packers. Yep.
- [43:18]
Jay Croucher
Heightless to me. Garrett Wilson, just because of the Patrick Sutan matchup against the Broncos. He's still going to start Garrett Wilson, but I think that he is more of a low end wide receiver too this week, so I wouldn't expect amazing things with such a tough matchup.
- [43:30]
Matthew Barry
Should see a lot of Pat certain Yeah.
- [43:32]
Jay Croucher
This Saturday night on NBC. And Peacock, number 15 Michigan heads to SoCal to battle USC at the Coliseum. Speaking of the Trojans, we'll highlight Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams when we turn our attention to quarterbacks after the break.
- [43:45]
Matthew Barry
Yeah, and tune in early, watch the pregame show, watch our guy Connor Rodgers give out his best bet for the night. C Rodge Con Daddy the Roggler okay.
- [43:54]
Jay Croucher
Sure.
- [43:57]
Matthew Barry
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- [46:54]
Jay Croucher
Boy Puka's guy Little known fact Puka watches LeBron James highlights before NFL games. Not really sure how he correlates the two, but he loves LeBron and also thinks he could play in the NBA.
- [47:07]
Matthew Barry
So I will vouch and say that is true because I just saw him.
- [47:11]
Ben Johnson
Before this last game.
- [47:12]
Jay Croucher
Yep.
- [47:13]
Ben Johnson
Sitting next to me watching it and I was confused.
- [47:15]
Matthew Barry
I'm like what?
- [47:16]
Jay Croucher
That's what he does.
- [47:17]
Matthew Barry
It was LeBron James career highlights.
- [47:20]
Jay Croucher
I get it. You guys are stuck. Rick and Koa National Treasure. Yeah. Do you watch LeBron highlights before you.
- [47:29]
Matthew Barry
Go on FNIA every single time.
- [47:31]
Jay Croucher
Okay.
- [47:31]
Matthew Barry
LeBron James, by the way, proud fantasy life investor.
- [47:33]
Jay Croucher
Is that right?
- [47:34]
Matthew Barry
Yes he is.
- [47:35]
Jay Croucher
Yeah I like like his over 47 and a half wins this year. Let's stay in LA. Matthew Stafford headlines. Love hate for the quarterbacks on the love list against the Ravens. Need anything more be said?
- [47:46]
Matthew Barry
Yeah. By the way, I can't throw a football but look at Matthew Stafford hosting a show like he's he's Johnny interview over there. He's also been Johnny quarterback last four weeks. Matthew Stafford is fourth in fantasy points per pass attempt. He's been on fire and now he gets the Ravens who have allowed the most touchdown passes this season, including eight in their past two games as they continue to get banged up on that defensive side. Their 31st in pass defense, their 29th in pressure rate. So Matthew Stafford, not the most mobile guy but should have a pretty clean pocket here. He's got healthy Puka, he's got healthy Devonte Adams. I'm his QB6 this week. I'm going to start him this week over Drake May. He's been sitting on my bench. One of the, you know, I should have started him last week, but like that's going to be my quarterbacks this week.
- [48:30]
Jay Croucher
Okay.
- [48:30]
Matthew Barry
Stafford and Jayden Daniels. Drake May on the bench. Yeah, I agree with that call to New Orleans.
- [48:35]
Jay Croucher
Agree with that call. But Drake May still on the love list for me. Favorable matchup against the Saints pass defense that doesn't scare you. Ranks around the bottom 10 in most matches. I think Drake May is the real deal. I agree with that. We can see his game log this season today. Last week was brutal against the Bills, didn't I? That was one of the great disparities between real life performance and fantasy performance. I thought he was fantastic in that game. He just didn't get the touchdowns.
- [48:58]
Matthew Barry
That was what's brilliant. Like this is why fantasy is such a cruel game. He was brilliant as an NFL player. Didn't translate to fantasy points. Ramondre Stevens was awful as an NFL player. Gets in the end zone, but got two touchdowns. Like seven for 14 yards. But the two touchdowns and the fumble.
- [49:13]
Jay Croucher
I think the hidden thing with May is that his performance is so correlated with Stefon Diggs looking like the old Stefon Diggs because now he has a legit wide receiver one which didn't have anything close to to that last year. Caleb Williams has a legit wide receiver one as well in Roma Dunes A. And he's on the love list.
- [49:29]
Matthew Barry
Yeah, he also gets my commanders on Monday night, which as much as I love my commanders, opposing quarterbacks love them as well because over the last four weeks they give up the third highest passer rating. They're giving up 9.3 yards per pass attempt. That is the most in the NFL over the last four weeks. And three of the last four quarterbacks to face my commanders have scored at least 18 fantasy points. Williams off the bye, runs more than he gets credit for. You already know we like A Dunes A. I think you'll see more Luther Burton and Colston Loveland. They're young guys getting involved. And so Caleb Williams is my number nine quarterback this week. He's a top 10 play and what should be a fun one on Monday night. I hope my commanders come through. Remember last year they had the Hail Mary the Bears lost. You know, when Tyreek Stevenson is jawing at the fans and we completed the Hail Mary. I wonder if that play will be shown 8 billion times on Monday Night Football.
- [50:17]
Jay Croucher
Yeah, I suspect it. Well, whatever the line is set there, I'll take the over on amount of times that is referenced, Justin Herbert probably shouldn't need a last second Hail Mary to beat the Miami Dolphins. Dolphins coughed up a 17 point lead to the Carolina Panthers. They did. They're not very good. Justin Herbert has been absolutely under siege the past few weeks just in terms of his pressure rate. His offensive line can't hold up. You know what a good antidote is for that? The Miami Dolphins, Dolphins, who cannot get any pressure in terms of most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Only the Cowboys and Ravens have given up more than the Dolphins. So I think Herbert, after a tough couple of weeks, I think he gets right against Miami.
- [50:54]
Matthew Barry
Yeah, especially because by the way, the running game will be lessened without Amarian Hampton. So I do think they lean on the arm of Justin Herbert. How about some guys, others receiving votes and it might surprise you to know that, but we talked about how the the Chargers are first in the NFL and pass rate over expectation. Denver's actually sixth.
- [51:12]
Jay Croucher
Yeah.
- [51:13]
Matthew Barry
You know, Sean Payton off in sixth in pass rate over expectation. Bo Nix is averaging over 35 pass attempts a game and now he gets the jets who allows touchdown passes at the second highest rate. You also saw Mac Jones there again, we're expecting to make one more start for the Niners, at least one more start as Purdy recovers. He's had three starts this year. He's averaging over 19 fantasy points per game. He's averaging over 300 passing yards per game like Mac Jones is. When watching Mac Jones over the last couple weeks, you sort of like, I get why there was they were sitting there going, trey Lance, Mac Jones in the draft. They obviously honestly should have drafted Mac Jones. I mean they, they got bailed out by Brock Purdy in the seventh round. But ultimately Mac Jones has looked like a good fit for Kyle Shannon's offense, which is one of the reasons why he liked him coming out of Alabama.
- [51:57]
Jay Croucher
Executes the offense and Shanahan trusts him. Let's get to the hate list and some interesting news. Kyla Murray not practicing on Wednesday, dealing with a foot injury, per Ian Rapport, NFL Network not expected to practice an injury to watch. They left the game against the Titans with this injury, came back in. I'm expecting he's going to go, but just something to monitor for sure.
- [52:17]
Matthew Barry
It would be Jacoby Brissette if Kyler can't go. And I think for the extent that we care about when it comes to Trey McBride or Marvin Harrison Jr. Like Jacoby Brissette is fine. He is, he is literally the definition of a professional quarterback. He will get the ball to those two guys. So you're starting them regardless of who's under center. But it's worth noting I'm not starting Kyler Murray this week regardless. Even if he's healthy, right? Even if he's active, I want no part of him. He's my QB19. Look the facing the Colts, right? I know you're a Colts man. Will you guys allow the six fewest yards per completion and he just hasn't been throwing right. He's 29th in yards for pass attempt this year. Kyler is Spencer Rattler, Bryce Young, Cam Ward, Joe Flacco. Those are the only quarterbacks in the NFL that Kyler is ahead of in yards per pass attempt. Rattler, Young, Ward and Flacco. He just he hasn't looked right this year. To be honest.
- [53:07]
Jay Croucher
He's looked right for two years. It doesn't really look like it's looked right since 2021.
- [53:11]
Matthew Barry
It's been tough and you know, he has yet to his best. He has yet to be better than QB14 in any week this season. Now he's dealing with an injury and a tough matchup on the road at Indianapolis. No thank you.
- [53:22]
Jay Croucher
Yep, hate list for me. Trevor Lawrence the Traveler. Yeah, the Traveler. Really gutsy performance. Great moment for Trevor Lawrence on Monday Night Football, but tough matchup against the Seahawks secondary. I know what Baker Mayfield did to them. I think Baker just played out of his mind. Still some growing pains in this past game for the Jags, so I would rather not start Trevor Lawrence we're going to hit our last break. When we come back, our best bets for Thursday Night Football.
- [53:49]
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- [54:20]
Jay Croucher
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- [54:43]
Matthew Barry
Yes.
- [54:43]
Jay Croucher
Look at the most bet player.
- [54:44]
Matthew Barry
Betting makes everything better.
- [54:45]
Jay Croucher
Jay, thanks. Indeed it does. Jalen hurts also rushing us 25 plus minus 311. The public really going out on a limb there. Devonte Smith and Dallas got it. Also pepper the board. I'm gonna go with my former flame, the New York Giants. And this is a. Oh, it's ugly. It's ugly. It's real ugly. But I'm gonna take it anyway. Jalen Hyatt over 17 and a half receiving yards. He played 34 snaps last week. Derrick Slayton is out. Jalen Hyatt might be the lead ex outside receiver for the for a football team and an underdog at that. So I think they're going to need to throw. I think Jalen Hyatt gets at least 18 receiving yards.
- [55:22]
Matthew Barry
I am also instead of going with all the good players on the super bowl champion, I'm also going with the G man here. You saw one of the alt bets. There was Jackson Dart. An alt line for 25 rushing yards. I'm taking his actual line. Give me the over on 37 and a half. He's had at least 50 rushing yards in both of his starts this year. Mahomes ran for 66 yards against the Eagles. Look, it's, it's to your point. No dairy slate, no Malik neighbors. So there's going to be times where Jackson Dart is looking around and I think he's going to have to scramble. I think they'll call more design runs as they try to figure out ways to move the ball against Philadelphia as well. I, I think that Jalen Carter and company will get after Dart and so he's going to run give me the over on 37 and a half rushing yards for Jackson Dart tonight. In a game in which they're trailing and doing a bunch of crazy stuff, that music means it's closing time. You don't have to go home, but you can't stay here. New column, 10 Facts yous Need to Know Before Week 6 is up on rotoworld.com right now. So go check that out. By the way, go to FantasyLife.com and get Fantasy Life plus for free. Go check that out for Jay. I'm Matthew. We'll see you tomorrow. Peace out.