Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry

Episode Summary: Week 6 Start/Sit: Justin Herbert, Alvin Kamara, A.J. Brown + Bengals Trade for Joe Flacco

Date: October 8, 2025
Host: Matthew Berry (NBC Sports) with Connor Rogers & Jay Croucher

Episode Overview

This episode dives into Week 6 fantasy football start/sit decisions with signature banter, covering hot-button offense changes (notably, the Bengals trading for Joe Flacco), player usage trends, love/hate rankings for prominent fantasy contributors, and a lively “Blind Date” segment using advanced metrics to identify undervalued or tricky fantasy plays. The team blends actionable advice with humor, friendly jabs, and strong opinions, making this a highly engaging episode for managers seeking an edge or reassurance during a turbulent fantasy season.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Top Story: Bengals Trade for Joe Flacco

Discussion starts ~06:27

• Joe Flacco to the Bengals:
  The trio reacts to the Bengals moving on from Jake Browning, with new hope and comic relief for Joe Flacco now under center.

  • Flacco “is an improvement—even if it’s from worst to second-worst” (07:47).
  • They note improvements in skill position talent: “Browning was throwing to Jamar Chase and T. Higgins. There’s certainly a significant talent upgrade for Flacco here” (Connor Rogers, 07:50).
  • Main upside: Flacco’s decisiveness—“The ball is coming out quickly and he’s not scared to throw into double coverage... There’s a little YOLO to Joe Flacco” (Connor Rogers, 08:25).

• Impact on Fantasy Stars:

  • Jamar Chase: “Jamar Chase is always open…so if you're willing to chuck it to him, more often than not he's going to come down with the ball.” (Connor Rogers, 10:28)
  • Chase Brown/T. Higgins: Hopes for more efficiency and “cheap dump-offs” in the passing game, but OL woes remain.
  • General warning: The move is only a modest improvement, “The promise of Flacco might be better than the reality.” (Connor Rogers, 15:39)

Memorable Quote

“Sauntering for his life… This line’s been really, really bad. Flacco will get rid of the ball quickly…and he’s not scared to throw into double coverage.”
—Connor Rogers, 10:10

2. Start/Sit Analysis and Rankings

Main segment begins ~16:00
(Berry, Rogers, and Croucher alternate, often with light teasing and regional-flavored slang)

Justin Herbert (@MIA)

• Remains a “top-five play”…“If Herbert is ever going to get right, this is a dream matchup.” (Jay Croucher, 17:25)

Alvin Kamara (vs NE)

• Trending down due to Kendre Miller eating into touches and a tough Patriots defense.
• Still viable as “high-end flex, low-end RB2,” with hope in PPR usage: “The Patriots allow the fifth highest catch rate to running backs…so there’ll be some dump offs here.”
  (Matthew Berry, 21:30)

Ramondre Stevenson (@NO)

• “Box score last week was so disgusting”—utterly TD dependent; “He’s had one game this year with a double digit target share,” making him highly risky.
  (Connor Rogers, 21:48)

Zach Charbonnet (vs JAX)

• Only viable if he scores; “Even in games in which he scored a touchdown…he’s still under 13 fantasy points as well.”
  (Connor Rogers, 24:44)

A.J. Brown (vs NYG, TNF)

• Major concern: “His ability to beat man coverage…has completely fallen off a cliff this year.”
  (Jay Croucher, 27:46)
• Still a start (“keeping it open”)—but “if you can't do it against the Giants, I don’t know when you feel trustworthy about starting A.J. Brown. 21 is the lowest I've had him all year.”
  (Matthew Berry, 33:12)

D.J. Moore (@WAS)

• “DJ Moore’s problem is he’s not Rome Odunze.” Just one top-30 WR week—no trust, “I’m closing it out on DJ Moore.”
  (Connor Rogers, 34:58)

Jacoby Myers (vs TEN)

• Downturn recently, but “Still keeping it open on Jacoby Myers as a mid-tier WR3…six targets every game but one.”
  (Connor Rogers, 38:06)

David Njoku (TE, vs PIT)

• “Keeping it open…tight end eight. He’s the number one target for Dylan Gabriel until further notice.”
  (Connor Rogers, 39:08)

3. Player Usage Trends and Frustrations

Recurring theme throughout player discussion, e.g. 17:51+ (Kamara), 24:00+ (Charbonnet)

• The analysts repeatedly warn about RBs (Stevenson, Charbonnet, Montgomery) whose fantasy value is “TD-or-bust.”
• A.J. Brown’s struggles: Matt Harmon’s “Reception Perception” and the debate about whether Brown’s downturn is physical, mental, or “diva receiver” frustration with the offensive scheme (28:57 - 31:33).
• 2025’s state of offenses: Several references to how “bad” certain lines and playcalling are, yet also how fantasy managers can profit from chaos if they focus on usage, not just big names.

4. Blind Date Segment (Metrics-Driven Identification Game)

Begins ~43:14 - 52:34

The crew tries to guess players based only on advanced usage stats (“Blind Date”):

• Notable Players Identified:
  • Quinshon Judkins: “A hold or buy,” despite low passing usage because “he is in a run-heavy offense, and they use him when they get in close” (Connor Rogers, 44:27)
  • J.K. Dobbins: “Potential sell-high…he needs to score to pay off in fantasy.” (Connor Rogers, 46:46)
  • David Montgomery: “More or less a hold,” floor > ceiling, but “a flex play with a chance to score a TD every week.” (Matthew Berry, 48:15)
  • Drake London and Tetairoa McMillan: Both have great underlying target shares, underperforming so far, marking them as possible “buy-lows.”

5. Back to the Futures Bets

(54:29)

• T.J. Watt: Defensive Player of the Year “isn’t allowed to be 25-to-1.” (Jay Croucher)
• Tyler Warren: Offensive Rookie of the Year as a way voters might “reward the Colts’ season.” (Connor Rogers)
• Dak Prescott: Deep MVP odds, boosted by cakewalk schedule ahead. (Matthew Berry)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Flacco’s quick release:

  “There’s a little bit of yolo to Joe Flacco.”
  —Connor Rogers, 08:25

• On A.J. Brown’s mystery decline:

  “He has been one of the least efficient receivers in the NFL after being a top five receiver in the sport. So I don’t understand it at all.”
  —Jay Croucher, 28:18

• On “Diva WR” mentality:

  “You talk to [QBs] a lot…and the answer is: I always knew a quick bubble screen, a quick slant…just to make sure they were engaged.”
  —Matthew Berry, 30:24

• On RB pitfalls:

  “He’s so touchdown dependent…He’s running in mud.” —Connor Rogers on Stevenson, 22:42

• On fantasy letdowns:

  “Every Bengal fan knows, every time you count on the Bengals they bone you.” —Connor Rogers, 15:10

• Banter highlight:
  The recurring bit on British/Australian language (“best running back in the sport?”) and regional nicknames. (18:24–20:23)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Bengals/Flacco Reaction: 06:27–15:59
• Justin Herbert Start/Sit: 16:00–17:36
• Alvin Kamara Deep-Dive: 17:36–21:39
• Ramondre Stevenson/Charbonnet Analysis: 21:39–25:55
• A.J. Brown Crisis: 25:55–33:18
• DJ Moore and Jacoby Myers Discussion: 33:59–39:08
• Blind Date (Advanced Stats Game): 43:14–52:34
• Futures Bets & Wrap: 54:29–End

Summary Table: Start/Sit Recommendations

| Player | Recommendation | Rank/Reasoning | |--------------------------|--------------------|------------------------------------------------------------| | Justin Herbert | Keep it open/start | “QB5 this week, dream matchup vs. Miami” | | Alvin Kamara | Keep it open/start | RB23, “ppr usage rising, tough matchup but viable” | | Ramondre Stevenson | Close it out/sit | RB29, “touchdown dependent, minimal pass game work” | | Zach Charbonnet | Close it out/sit | RB32, “goal line annoyance, not startable otherwise” | | A.J. Brown | Keep it open/start | WR21 “one more chance vs. NYG, but big worries” | | Jacoby Myers | Keep it open/start | WR26, “still earning 6+ targets/game, great matchup” | | DJ Moore | Close it out/sit | WR37, “Rome Odunze show, little upside” | | David Njoku | Keep it open/start | TE8, “top target for Dylan Gabriel, strong matchup” |

Final Thoughts

Despite the laughs and irreverence, there’s serious analysis: The hosts urge caution with name value players in funk, highlight changing usage trends, and repeatedly recommend trading fading assets for 75 cents on the dollar if a league mate gets “Flacco-hopeful.” The “Blind Date” segment gives savvy owners clues about analytic buy-lows (London, McMillan) versus fragile sells (Montgomery, Dobbins).

The episode is prime Berry: equal parts strategy clinic and sports bar. Whether you’re 5-0 or desperate for a win, the “Fantasy Football Happy Hour” keeps you sharp and smiling.