Week 7 Start/Sit: Justin Fields, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Rashee Rice, Jameson Willia

Summary

Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry

Episode: Week 7 Start/Sit: Justin Fields, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Rashee Rice, Jameson Williams
Date: October 15, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into Week 7 Start/Sit decisions, spotlighting controversial and trending fantasy players. Matthew Berry and the crew debate key dilemmas (Justin Fields, Rashee Rice, Jameson Williams, Jacory Croskey-Merritt), share their characteristic humor, and field instant chat and social questions. “Keep it open or close it out” anchors the show, mirroring Start/Sit advice with Berry’s signature context and candor. The second half features a “Blind Date” game breaking down notable player trends and trade values. Betting/futures lines and comeback player odds close out the football talk.

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Main Themes & Segments

1. Keep It Open or Close It Out: Start/Sit Week 7 Decisions

(03:02–36:40)

Justin Fields vs. Panthers: Should You Still Start Him?

• Reluctant QB1 Endorsement:
  Berry names Fields a “very nervous top 10 ranking” but keeps him open (starts him) due to matchup, not player faith.

  “If he struggles here...this is a ranking that is not without trepidation because he could get yanked for Tyrod Taylor at any time. But I am keeping it open on Justin Fields. And the reason I have him as a top 10 play this week is entirely matchup based.” (04:25) — Matthew Berry

• Short Leash & Risk:
  Panel debates the downside: if Fields underwhelms early, he could be benched for Tyrod Taylor, especially with Garrett Wilson out.

• Fantasy vs. NFL Value:

  “We can debate whether he's been a good NFL quarterback, but he's been a good fantasy quarterback. All three of his games prior to last week...he'd scored at least 25 fantasy points.” (05:15) — Berry

Chase Brown vs. Steelers: Trust He’s a Lead Back?

• Disappointment & Volume Drop:
  Berry notes, "I don't know how you can start this guy," with declining snaps and Samaje Perine eating into his share.

  “The play in the argument in the preseason was this guy’s gonna get massive volume. He’s not getting massive volume...the offense is just bad, run game stinks.” (13:35) — Berry

• Panelist Dissent:
  Jay Croucher says, “I’d still go Chase Brown,” for TD potential (14:54).

Jaylen Warren vs. Bengals: Emerging Value

• Positive Trends:
  Warren keeps Berry’s endorsement thanks to heavy red-zone usage and Steelers’ improved offensive line packages.

  “He’s got 87% of the Steelers red zone rushes...the matchup is so good against Cincinnati.” (20:12) — Berry

• Panel Consensus:
  Steelers’ offense (under Arthur Smith) looks better; panel agrees Warren’s ceiling is higher than before.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (aka Bill) vs. Cowboys: Volume Play

• Commanders’ RB Workhorse:
  Despite fumble, Berry points to 18 touches and 78% command of RB opportunities recently.

  “Each of the past two games, no one other than [Bill] has had a goal line rush. He’s had 100% of the commander’s goal line rushes.” (25:01) — Berry

• Favorable Matchup:
  Cowboys’ run defense ranks bottom three over recent weeks.

Wide Receivers

• Rashee Rice vs. Raiders:
  Berry is bullish, ranking him WR20.

  “He’s their best wide receiver...I have him as a top 20 play. I’m keeping it open.” (27:35) — Berry

• Jameson Williams vs. Buccaneers:
  High-risk/high-reward, akin to “this generation’s Gabe Davis.” Berry slots him as a “shaky WR3,” keeping it barely open.

  “You either always start Jameson Williams or you never start Jameson Williams.” (31:31) — Berry

• Jauan Jennings vs. Falcons:
  Too banged-up and crowded WR corps; Berry drops him outside Top 45 WRs and closes it out.

Tight Ends

• Hunter Henry:
  Berry recommends dropping him (“closing it out”) after three straight games under 50 yards.

  “He is the ultimate sort of touchdown dependent tight end.” (35:34) — Berry

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2. Notable Quotes & Banter

• On subtle humor:
  “Sometimes my humor is very subtle. Very subtle. It’s subtle and adult. Sometimes it sucks.” (01:42) — Berry
• Jets fandom pain:
  “There’s no rock bottom, just trap doors. I tell you guys, I’m just saying.” (19:13) — C. Rogers
• Fields vs. Penix future value:
  “I’m still going to say Fields because of the running...But it’s a closer conversation than it was a week ago.” (09:43) — Berry
• Running back chaos:
  “It’s Keystone Cops back there...Pete’s like scrolling TikTok and he’s just doing this...It is chaos.” (15:53) — Berry

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3. Blind Date: Guess the Stat Profile

(40:38–52:31)

Players Revealed

• Jahmyr Gibbs:
  Berry (41:48) — Noting drastically reduced passing-game usage lately; not an automatic top-5 dynasty value anymore.

  “If somebody was willing to give me Jonathan Taylor for [Gibbs]? Yeah, of course.” (45:19) — Berry

• Ashton Jeanty:
  Recent workload surge after slow start; usage deemed “real.”

  “You just wish the team was in better scripts for him. But if they're gonna actually throw him the ball, that changes everything.” (46:46) — C. Rogers

• Jaylen Waddle:
  Elite production last two weeks with Tyreek Hill out; buying rest of season.

• Mike Evans:
  Elite air yards/targets but depressed fantasy points; “buy low” candidate if trade possible when healthy.

• Tucker Kraft:
  Hot start fizzled, but unlucky (tackled at 1 twice), still a viable TE1 with increased Packers’ opportunity.

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4. Futures, Comeback Player, and Betting Talk

(55:19–57:43)

• Comeback Player Odds:
  Jay Croucher pushes Stefon Diggs (22:1) as a dark-horse, arguing for “story narrative” in voting but admits Dak Prescott, Aidan Hutchinson are true favorites.

  “Diggs is top four in NFL in target share the past three weeks...I think he has a path to being a top six, top eight receiver.” (55:30) — Jay Croucher

• Other Futures Picks:

  • Connor: Patrick Mahomes as regular season TD pass leader (15:1).
  • Berry: Drake May for MVP (16:1) given Patriots’ schedule, seat as “long-shot value.”

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Key Timestamps by Segment

• Start/Sit Decisions Begin: 03:02
• Justin Fields Risk/Reward: 04:25–10:47
• Chase Brown Disappointment: 11:05–15:18
• Jaylen Warren Analysis: 19:03–21:37
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt Usage/Value: 25:01–27:09
• Rashee Rice, Jameson Williams, Jennings: 27:14–33:59
• Hunter Henry & TE Talk: 34:35–36:31
• Blind Date Player Profiles: 40:38–52:31
• Futures/Betting/Back to the Futures: 55:19–57:43

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Notable Advice/Takeaways

• Start Fields if you’re desperate at QB, but monitor benching risk closely.
• Avoid Chase Brown if you have any alternatives; volume and O-line issues are critical.
• Jalen Warren is a strong RB2 this week; heavy usage especially in the red zone.
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt is an RB2/Flex with upside against Cowboys’ weak run D.
• Rashee Rice is startable as a WR2; Jameson Williams is a volatile flex.
• Sell Jameson Williams high if you don’t want to deal with the weekly roulette.
• Hunter Henry can go back to waivers; touchdown-or-bust.
• Jaylen Waddle and Mike Evans are compelling “buy” candidates in trades pending their roles and health.
• Consider Gibbs as trade bait if roster upgrades possible—especially for workhorse RBs.

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Episode Vibe

True to “Happy Hour” form, the tone is playful, self-deprecating, and fast-moving with a mix of stats, personal anecdotes, and running inside jokes about Producer Pete, failed jokes, and the perils of NFL fandom/fantasy management. Perfect for fans who want practical fantasy insights and lively banter.

Transcript

[Matthew Berry]

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[Connor Rogers]

Local high school, you know that cleanliness.

[Jay Croucher]

Is key and that the best place.

[Matthew Berry]

To get cleaning supplies is from Grainger. Grainger helps you stay fully stocked on the products you trust, from paper towels and disinfectants to floor scrubbers. Plus, you can rely on Grainger for easy reordering, so you never run out of what you need. Call 1-800-GRAINGER Click grainger.com or just stop by Grainger for the ones who get it done.

[Connor Rogers]

69% available. Come on, Videl. Taj Spear, 76% available.

[Matthew Berry]

Was the percentage available?

[Connor Rogers]

69.

[Matthew Berry]

Interesting.

[Connor Rogers]

Yes. Taj Spears, 76. He's got a tough matchup this weekend against New England.

[Matthew Berry]

More on that, you understand? I just want to. For the Peacock audience, understand what's the availability?

[Connor Rogers]

What about the YouTube audience?

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, this specific question was for the Peacock audience. Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry.

[Connor Rogers]

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Happy Hour.

[Matthew Berry]

Do you think people got the joke? Like, I don't know. It was fairly subtle, but do you think they got the joke, Conor?

[Jay Croucher]

No.

[Connor Rogers]

No, I don't think so.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, sometimes my, my humor is very subtle. Very subtle. It's subtle and adult. Sometimes it sucks. That's fair. Also fair. That's all. It's. It's also fair. Honestly, I think usually that it's. It's one of the same, like us when it's highbrow and not, you know, and subtle. It also sucks.

[Jay Croucher]

You made a good joke on Sunday.

[Matthew Berry]

Did I?

[Jay Croucher]

I think, yeah. Oh, it's a good joke.

[Matthew Berry]

There you go. Fair enough. Every once in a while. Yeah, probably season two with the wind at my back. Every once in a while.

[Connor Rogers]

It is a backup producer Pete Day. I'm sure you all can tell by now we're off and running here on our Wednesday show, and we got plenty to do as the chat gets going. Jonathan Medici is all over it. Happy backup producer Pete Day. Most outrageous show of the week. Let's get weird.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, I like the fact that. That the regulars have. Have glommed onto the fact that Pete does no research. No, no. It's just. It's pure chaos.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah. So here's what you do. You get a. You get a split screen, one screen fancy football happy hour and then to just buy into the backup motif but Dead Poets Society on the other screen which is the definitive backup producer. Backup teacher day which has the audience.

[Connor Rogers]

Which gets the audio. Which screen.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah. Ethan Hawke and Robin Williams can be on mute.

[Connor Rogers]

Okay. I was going to say I hope we get the audio.

[Matthew Berry]

I would think so, Captain, my captain.

[Connor Rogers]

Plenty to do today. Keep it open or close it out is our version here at the happy hour bar of start. Sit. We'll have all of that for you. Blind Date returns America's new favorite segment. Jay and I will try to guess the players with the blind resume. And the comments just continue to roll in. Back to the futures as always on Wednesday, our favorite futures bets. This one from Valiant. Vincent Connor looking like he just stepped off the set of Happy Gilmore 2. I love it.

[Matthew Berry]

That is true. He's a golf polo or honestly, like, honestly, you kind of look like a waiter at a knockoff theme restaurant. You know what I mean?

[Connor Rogers]

But I don't think that one lands.

[Matthew Berry]

I disagree. Like, hey, welcome to Islands. I'm Connor. Can I get you a Mai Tai?

[Jay Croucher]

To me he looks like a honeybee.

[Connor Rogers]

I'll go with that. The color scheme.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, exactly.

[Connor Rogers]

I could see back of Producer Pete says the Rainforest Cafe. I'm saying that's a better one.

[Matthew Berry]

Fair.

[Connor Rogers]

Well, you weren't saying that but you were close. You were trying to get that back up.

[Jay Croucher]

Producer Pete, always desperate for his 6 out of 10 jokes to find make it to air.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, I filter out which ones make it. That one did. So there you go, Pete. We'll see if any more make it. Let's jump in to keep it open or close it out. And we start with the New York Jets Justin Fields against the Panthers. Listen, Justin Fields, you're gonna get some big weeks. And then last week he got 4.9 fantasy points. That's a season low for a game he has finished. Matthew. Justin Fields as we see right there, still stays in the top 10 quarterbacks. A much better matchup.

[Matthew Berry]

A very nervous top 10 ranking for me. I'm not going to lie. Here's the thing about Justin Fields. I think he's. Connor, we discussed this on Monday. Feels like he's got a much shorter leash than he did at the beginning of the year, that if he struggles here, that. There, there this is. So this is a ranking that is not without trepidation because he could get yanked for Tyrod Taylor at any time. But I am keeping it open on Justin Fields. And the reason I have him as a top 10 play this week is entirely matchup based. Right? No team in the NFL is lower in pressure rate this season than the Carolina panthers. They are 32nd in pressure rate. And so Justin Fields, who is under siege the entire time against the Broncos, in fairness, some of that was on him. He held the ball for like 12 seconds. Right. You know, he. So you know, at some point, even though the Panthers can't get pressure, if he sits back there 8 billion years, at some point they're going to get to him. And so I'm hopeful that the coaching staff has worked with him this week saying like, dude, get it, throw it away or start running a lot sooner. You can't just sit there forever and ever and ever. Especially in a week in which you might not have Garrett Wilson. All that said, he's got 35% of the jets red zone rushes this season. That's the third highest among quarterbacks. You're not particularly scared of this Carolina Panthers defense? I think that, I also think, like, and this sounds insane to say, but like, there's just no way he could be that bad again. No, that's famous. Famous last words. But I mean, like, it was a, you know, it's a London game. They're playing the Broncos, one of the best defenses of the NFL. Like, those games are always weird. Now he's back in America on a normal schedule playing the Panthers. He has, he has, prior to that meltdown, been a fairly good fantasy quarterback. This year we can debate whether he's been a good NFL quarterback, but he's been a. He's been a good fantasy quarterback. You know, all three of his games prior to last week, his three completed games prior to last week, he'd scored at least 25 fantasy points. I am reluctantly keeping it open on Justin Fields. I think he is a QB one this week, a low end one.

[Jay Croucher]

Yep. So real life, football wise, which informs fantasy here because he may not make it through the game.

[Connor Rogers]

Right.

[Jay Croucher]

So Justin Fields is great in Week 1 against the Steelers. He has been bad ever since then. Why is he still the starter?

[Connor Rogers]

I think a lot of people are trying to figure that out because Aaron Glenn didn't want to even entertain the question. Right. And it felt like the obvious game to Go to Tyrod Taylor. I think they, one, they didn't want to make it feel like these losses are all on field. You could put the London game loss on him, but they've had a lot more problems than just him leading up to that. And then two, they see more upside in him, whether you agree with that or not. They like the designed run game. They don't use it enough, in my opinion, but they like the design run game with him. They like that he can extend plays more. Tyrod Taylor, it's not that he lacks mobility, but he's older now. He's almost 37 years old, so you don't get the same mobility. So that's how they see it. I think, though, your fear of starting him in this game is that if things go wrong in the first half, I do think he'll be benched.

[Matthew Berry]

But you know what? At this point, I actually. You're going to think I'm crazy here, Connor, but I actually agree with Coach Glenn because, and this may have been the thinking, or maybe not, they're paying this guy $20 million a year. They need to figure. Justin Fields has never had a full year with a complimentary, complimentary team around him to prove that he can be a franchise quarterback. Now he's gotten a lot. He got some time in Chicago, didn't have a lot of talent around him. You can say, like, well, isn't that the case here with the Jets? Yes, it is. But the point is, is that I think the jets, if I'm the Jets, I'm like, listen, man, we ain't going to the super bowl with Tyrod Taylor. Like, nothing good happens from. Maybe we're a little bit more competitive. Maybe we. In a few more games. So maybe we win, you know, six games this year instead of four. Like, whatever. Like, this is a rebuilding year for the Jets. And I think that this is my guess, you have the inside sources there. I have none. But just looking at it logically, like, like, even if they won that game and they're one in five, they're highly unlikely to make the playoffs in today's NFL. So at this point, it's just like, this is just about learning. Can Justin Fields ultimately be our guy or are we starting over next year? What, what good comes from starting Tyrod Taylor? The only, the only thing that comes from that and Connor, you would know better than me is if they've lost the locker room.

[Connor Rogers]

Right?

[Matthew Berry]

He's lost the locker room.

[Connor Rogers]

And that's why you make a move. That's why you make that exactly why you make a move. I think where he went wrong was, I think he. Fields didn't have it and you knew that in the first two quarters of the game last week. I think Glenn thought he couldn't go to Tyrod Taylor for the second half or the fourth quarter and go back to Fields. And I don't agree with that. I think you could have went to Tyrod for that game. You needed 25 yards to kick a field goal to win the game. And you win the game and you can go back to Fields. I don't agree with that. It seemed like Glenn and the way he even spoke to this was I didn't want to press that button right now and go to him. But if this keeps happening and no Garrett Wilson in this game could be looked at two different ways. It's like no Garrett Wilson, that's really bad. But no Garrett Wilson. Fields has to run more sure. This game without Garrett Wilson, which is his whole value in fantasy right now. So it's a tricky one for sure.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, no, I think that's logical. I think also as bad as the jets have been and they've been very bad, they really should have beaten the Steelers. But on the other line stats, they outperformed Miami as well in that game. They easily could have won that and they should have been the Broncos. So there are worlds now. You don't get to win every coin flip game.

[Matthew Berry]

What about.

[Jay Croucher]

They really should have gone 2 and 1 there.

[Matthew Berry]

How about them? I mean like again, it was sort of fluky with the block block field goal. But the Buccaneers came too, right?

[Connor Rogers]

Stop.

[Matthew Berry]

You needed one stop.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, I guess so. That's part of his thinking as well is like we've been close at times. Even the Fields isn't always leading the charge. Once again, you have to agree with it. Yeah, but it's a thought.

[Matthew Berry]

But you understand the thought process. He's, you know, and he's a first time head coach too. And so, you know, first time head coach. Dealing with the New York media is a different animal than, you know, you know, more experienced coaches or coaches in, in different markets. You know what I mean? Like you've got animals like, you know, sports Emmy losing, Connor Rogers, you know, that are just out there like grilling you left and right. It's brutal. Absolutely. Every week Philip wants to know Fields or Penix for the rest of the season. I'm still going to say Fields because of the running. Because the running like quarterback wise, like in terms of just who's a better NFL Quarterback, It's. Right. But who for fantasy. I would still go with Fields also, but it's a closer conversation than it was a week ago for sure.

[Jay Croucher]

It's just, it depends what you think. The percentage chance that Fields is the starter, that's the problem. Right. Because Penix, barring something absolutely catastrophic, panics will be the start of the remainder of the season.

[Matthew Berry]

Correct.

[Jay Croucher]

Justin Fields may not be the starter in the third quarter against Carolina.

[Matthew Berry]

This is true.

[Connor Rogers]

But it's got to be now. I mean, Panthers and Bengals are the next two games. Yeah, you got to get going here.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. So 1000% either way. I'm keeping it open just to, just to close the loop on the, on the bit here. Jay.

[Jay Croucher]

Yes.

[Matthew Berry]

Yes.

[Jay Croucher]

Hold on.

[Matthew Berry]

Thank you. Appreciate that. I always, I always, I crave your, your. Your passive aggressive praise. Yes, yes. Thank you.

[Jay Croucher]

It'll always be.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

All right, let's go to the running backs. Chase Brown, who's been just an absolute disappointment to fantasy managers everywhere this season. He is running back 33 in points per game this year. He's got the Steelers, Matthew, you know, he stays in your top 30 this week.

[Matthew Berry]

I believe he's 33. So he's just outside my. My top 31 spot ahead of the original chubbler.

[Connor Rogers]

Definitely a backup producer feed day.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. Obviously, again, he doesn't want to be.

[Connor Rogers]

I've been told that he's RB27 for.

[Matthew Berry]

No fantasy league.

[Connor Rogers]

The streets are saying he's RB27 for you, but you, the man that does the rankings is saying he's not. So I don't know what's going on.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, it's all good either way. The point is whether he's 27, whether he's 33, whether he's 100. Am I closing it out on Chase Brown? I am now not in our league because my team is so awful that I have no choice but to start him. But in normal leagues, in leagues in which you have not just been decimated by injuries or drafted horribly, both of which I have done, I don't know how you can start this guy. The argument they're playing Pittsburgh on a short week. Now, the light that you're holding out hope for on Chase Brown is that maybe that he gets a bunch of dump offs here, but we just haven't seen it like, I mean, we. The concerns aren't. The pro Chase Brown argument in the preseason was, well, it's going to be a really good offense, you know, with Joe Burrow and he's going to get all the work all right. And this is a guy that was awesome down the stretch. Well, so far, none of those things are true anymore. Obviously, the offense has fallen way off without Joe Burrow. It showed signs of life under Joe Flacco last week. But the other thing is, is that in that game with Joe Flacco, Chase Brown didn't play the whole time. Samaj p. Ryan played 47% of the snaps each of the last two weeks. That's over the last two weeks. It's basically in a timeshare. You know, Chase Brown has had a less than a 55% snapshare each of the last two weeks. P. Ryan. Samaj P. Ryan. 47% over the last two weeks. And so you think about the Steelers defense that allowed the six fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs. If they're using P. Ryan more in the passing game, which over the last two weeks, that's what it seems like they do. And given the lack of mobility of Joe Flacco and TJ Watt, it's clear that they trust P. Ryan and pass protection more, which makes sense. That's always been kind of his calling card. Like so. Just super, super nervous. Like four straight games with under 15 touches for Chase Brown. Again, the play in the argument in the preseason was this guy's going to get massive volume. He's not getting massive volume. The volume he's getting, he hasn't been productive with. And the offense is just bad run game stinks.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, they can't run.

[Matthew Berry]

The line is terrible. It's probably the worst line in the NFL.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, it probably is. And also I think that often teams come out of the buy and they change how they do things. And I think the Steelers found some stuff in their buy and their. Their defense now understands against Dylan Gabriel and the Browns offense, but still their defense, that was their best performance of the year. They did a much better job against Gabriel than the Vikings did the previous week. And they're just healthier as well. Derek Harmon is getting more integrated. Alex Highsmith is back. TJ Watt looked much better in that game, had in previous games. So it's a brutal matchup. Samaj P. Ryan as well just keeps popping up. He's always popping up. Like he kind of disrupts the chief spec field. He's out there with the super bowl on the line in 2021. Like Samaji P. Ryan. He anywhere.

[Matthew Berry]

Former former Washington commander. Great. Samaj P. Ryan started his career when the team was another name. But yeah, we love Samajp Ryan. Sure he's done Nothing wrong. It's not his fault that Chase Brown's been terrible. Yeah, exactly. Austin Mitchell says better off flexing Travion Henderson or Sterling Shepard over Chase Brown. At least with Travion Henderson, Conner, there's some upside there. Right? I just.

[Connor Rogers]

I like Shepherd's floor.

[Matthew Berry]

Sure. Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

Shepard should get you 10 points, which is saying more than what these two other two guys can do sometimes.

[Matthew Berry]

I'd still go, yeah, look, I mean, what'd you say?

[Jay Croucher]

I'd still go. Chase Brown, I think he has by far. Well, not by far, but I think he has the most chance of getting in the end zone. He has the most chance of just accumulating cheap points as well.

[Matthew Berry]

I mean, listen, I have Henderson two spots below Chase Brown in my ranks this week. But, like, in terms of upside. Right? I mean, I'm sorry if Chase Brown's ahead, you know, like, I. Yeah, I. Anyway, the point here is, is that Sterling Shepard, to your point about. Huh? What?

[Connor Rogers]

Total chaos right now.

[Matthew Berry]

He's losing his mind. You're trying to find your thoughts. I am.

[Connor Rogers]

He's laughing, and I don't know who to listen to.

[Matthew Berry]

You have to. You understand what's going on in my ear? I have a. I have a. I have an earpiece in my ear, and Pete is speaking into it, and he is speaking nonsense, and he's changing his mind left and right. It's literally like, this is what's happening in the control room. I just want you guys to see it. Here's what's. Like, this is. Pete is like this newsfavor ad. Exactly. Pete's. No, no, Pete's like, scrolling TikTok and he's just doing this, and he's like. Oh, oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. It's 23. No, hang on.

[Connor Rogers]

Shit.

[Matthew Berry]

I mean, 27. I mean, wait, Jay. It's like. I mean, it's just like. It is Keystone Cops back there. It is.

[Jay Croucher]

Aw. What Russell Crowe heard in his era when it all went south in A Beautiful Mind. Basically, what I'm going through right now.

[Matthew Berry]

Right, exactly. Segment two. We're gonna see backup producer Pete, like, doing this. You know, just the craziness and the. In the. And the beautiful.

[Jay Croucher]

Comment from Will Garretson producer Pete calling audibles at the line of scrimmage. Yeah, but it's like. It's Will Levis calling audibles.

[Connor Rogers]

Why are you checking out of the play?

[Matthew Berry]

No, no, right? He's. He's checking out of a. Of a play that would score a touchdown to, like, take a quarterback. Kneel, Kneel down. Like, and we're like, we're down 6. What are you doing? It's just, it'. It's unbelievable. Here's what, here's the, here's the last thing I want to just say about that I think is that no Henderson. There's obviously a much wider range of outcomes for Henderson. Chase Brown is somebody that could, you know, hopefully gets you 10 points with some like cheap dump offs, you know, and maybe he has a chance to fall in the end zone. I will say to Connors point about the floor of Sterling Shepard. We don't know yet whether or not Mike Evans is coming back this week. There's hope that he could play this week, but even if he does, shepherd, who plays the slot, I think his Evans availability is what will dictate whether we think Taz Johnson or Cameron Johnson have an opportunity this week. But Sterling Shepherd's role. We're not expecting Godwin back. We're not expecting a book back this week. So Sterling Shepard is the guy that I think has the most safe role in that Buccaneers offense regardless of what happens to Evans.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. And if you're starting Henderson, you're hoping that Mike Rabel wants some style points as revenge against Tennessee and he might.

[Matthew Berry]

By the way, he. Absolutely.

[Connor Rogers]

So there's some thought process there. By the way, shout out to Cam Hayward. He's calling this the icy hot bowl.

[Matthew Berry]

Yes. Because it is.

[Connor Rogers]

Aaron Rodgers versus Joe Flacco. The second matchup of 40 year old quarterbacks in NFL history. Tom Brady and Drew Brees was the other one by the way. So the 40 year olds out there, you drink free today?

[Matthew Berry]

Thousand percent. We like the olds here. We are pro old people here on the Happy Hour show.

[Jay Croucher]

100%. They also both the old blokes looked pretty good last week. It's the best Aaron Rodgers has looked since 2021. And Flacco as well looked much better than anything expected against a pretty good Green Bay defense.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, some hope for Jamar Chase and Tegans.

[Jay Croucher]

He can't win the award again.

[Matthew Berry]

What if he wins comeback player of the year again? Again he lost his job and he comes back. He leads the. He leads the Bengals to the playoffs just like he did with the Browns. He wins it again.

[Connor Rogers]

Has to be hurt. He has to be hurt.

[Matthew Berry]

That's official now.

[Connor Rogers]

Or that the guidelines.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah. You're going to have an injury. Yeah, it's vague. It's a little vague. He can't. He's done with. That's all right. Could Aaron come out and play?

[Matthew Berry]

Could Aaron Rodgers Win comeback player of the year. I know he sort of was hurt last year. I mean it wasn't like he wasn't hurt the year the way he was two years ago.

[Connor Rogers]

He didn't sit out hurt. I know if you don't play, if you just play through injury, it doesn't count.

[Matthew Berry]

But isn't. Isn't that a guideline? It's not a rule rule, but it's like it's a. It's a guideline. They're supposed to follow the voters. Correct.

[Jay Croucher]

But everyone followed it with Sam Donald.

[Connor Rogers]

We have come back player of the year talk in play for the final segment.

[Jay Croucher]

Something that Connor's not ready for and I don't think it's actually going to happen. But. But The Steelers are plus 650 to get the 1 seed and Aaron Rodgers is like 175 to 1 to win MVP.

[Connor Rogers]

The odds are the odds. Yeah. It won't happen.

[Matthew Berry]

I'm just saying.

[Jay Croucher]

It won't happen. I'm just saying.

[Connor Rogers]

We just can't escape this game. Jaylen Warren's our next player.

[Matthew Berry]

The only reason I think it might happen is just because every time you think the jets fans have been tortured to their extreme, every once in a while there's this, oh, no, no, we've got one more screw for you.

[Connor Rogers]

There's no rock bottom, just trap doors. I tell you guys, I'm just saying.

[Jay Croucher]

He'S 10 passing touchdowns against three interceptions. He checks into plays at the goal line. All the accumulate stats, they get the.

[Connor Rogers]

One he does pile on the stats.

[Jay Croucher]

He's an MVP Merchant. Alvin Kamara is a PPR Merchant. Aaron Rodgers is an MVP Merchant. If he has the stats in the middle one.

[Matthew Berry]

If Lamar isn't healthy out of the buy or like they, they have no room for error. We're not worried about the Browns, the Bengals, like there's a very real chance that the Steelers win this division. And when you think about the fact that like to your point, like they could just stack up wins, like you just sort of look at their schedule and like just that division. Right?

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah.

[Jay Croucher]

I mean like he's gonna get the one seat. He's gonna get the one seat. But he could. They could get the one seat.

[Matthew Berry]

Can you imagine?

[Jay Croucher]

Plus 650 to get the one seed. The AFC is wide open. Bill's just lost to the Falcons. Don't have any.

[Connor Rogers]

I'll be brave and take the Chiefs. Somebody has to on this desk. I'll be very brave and I'll take Patrick Mahomes. Jaylen Warren in this game. Only one more touch than Kenneth Gainwell last week. Matthew, it looks like while Warren was out, Gainwell proved himself to be a part of this backfield going forward.

[Matthew Berry]

Rightfully so, but. So I'm still keeping it open on Jaylen Warren and I'm encouraged by. I get the gain. But what's important to me is that when they get in close, they like Jalen Warren. He caught a lot of pass as well. To your point about Aaron Rodgers being sort of a stats merchant, he loves dumping it off to Jalen Warren. He trusts Jalen Warren as well. No running back has more a higher percentage of their team's red zone rushes this season than Jalen Warren. He's got 87% of the Steelers red zone rushes. And then you think about this matchup against the Bengals that we just talked about here. They're giving up 166 yards to scrimmage to running backs. They've given at least 16.9 fantasy points to a running back in every single game this year. So I've Jalen Warner running back 15. I'm keeping it open. I'm not as concerned about Kenneth Gainwell, but I think the matchup is so good against Cincinnati that Gainwell has some, you know, some PPR flex appeal as well.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, definitely. I thought, look, I thought the Steelers offensive look pretty rough. The first four weeks out of the buy they changed what they did. They brought in an extra offensive lineman for more protection. They playing a lot more Darnell Washington. I think Arthur Smith is a good offensive coordinator. As much as we pile on him for fancy reason, I think that he gets the most out of his personnel and Rogers just looked a lot more comfortable. So I think that this offense, I think it's going to be an amazing offense. I don't think Aaron Rodgers is going to win mvp, but I do think that there is a bit more of a ceiling and more scoring potential than I thought there would have been a couple weeks ago.

[Matthew Berry]

I'm going to say something you won't believe. I completely agree with you. Look, we, we like to have fun with Arthur Smith and he drives us crazy in the world of fantasy football. But I agree with you. Like, I think he is a good offensive coordinator. I think he does a good job of looking at what he has and working. I mean, look, he made Marcus Mariota work there for a while. Like, I mean, he was like. He is. He does. He. He calls a very good run game. He calls a very good run game and he sets up play action nicely and so the Steelers offense has looked much better than I think its personnel gives it a right to. Yeah, I agree with you. I think he's a good coordinator. He just drives us.

[Connor Rogers]

I'm not forgiving him for Bijan Robinson.

[Matthew Berry]

Since it's insane for fantasy football. But.

[Jay Croucher]

But the two big knocks on Arthur Smith in Atlanta were why don't you use Kyle Pitts more and why is Tyler Algier play so much? Well, yeah, he used Tyler Algier too much, is really good and he's still.

[Connor Rogers]

Getting used a lot.

[Jay Croucher]

And Kyle Pitts has done, you know, not a great deal as well. So I don't think that he has been proven. I don't think there's been like total vindication. But at the same time I don't think those moves look terrible in reflection.

[Matthew Berry]

Well, and the other thing, the other thing is, is that Kyle Pitts can't block. That's it. Like he was going for a run heavy scheme in Atlanta and Jono Smith was a better blocker. Like that's why he's just had Jono Smith with him every stop because like whatever, Jono is just a really good fit for the kind of stuff he likes to do on offense. We get a comment here from CW 1015. This feels like a question for you here, Mr. Croucher. Hey fellas, will we see another big upset on tnf? Worth taking Bengals on the money line. What about a chase anytime touchdown. Hashtag ffh, hashtag regular.

[Connor Rogers]

I like the Bengals getting five and a half points. Yeah, I don't know if it's. I'm going to check if that line still because that was the opening line. I want to see if that's where it's at. But a money line would be rich for me. It's still five and a half.

[Jay Croucher]

I think the Steelers, I think the Steelers have turned themselves into a pretty solid team and I think that the Bengals, it is a lot of points on the road. But I do think that the thing with Rogers is if you get him under pressure, he just can't move anymore. I don't think the Bengals are going to generate a ton of pressure, particularly with Trey Hendrickson a bit of a concern. So I think the Steelers will win. Chase Brown depends on the price, which I don't know off the top of my head, but yeah, he's a reasonable chance to score a touchdown just because he is the starting running back for a team that suspect is going to be playing from behind. And, and Flacco, for all his sins like Flacco was very close to being able to drive down the field to beat the packers if Jordan Love doesn't convert. But that third night at the end. So I think it's going to be a competent packers again.

[Matthew Berry]

I do too. But like this, this to his point, I could see this being an ups. I agree with you. I like the Bengals plus five and a half. I think at home, you know, they showed some fight against the Packers. I think the team's probably going to buy into Flacco as being a viable option as well. Anytime, anytime you're at home on a short week, you got a chance. Listen, NFL, you know, wacky stuff happens all the time and they've got Jamar Chase on their team. Like there's. There's certainly within the range of outcomes that Jamar Chase just goes nuclear because he can do that in any single week. Right.

[Jay Croucher]

Jalen Warren, sorry. Chase Brown is plus 120 anytime. Touchdown scorer.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah.

[Jay Croucher]

Jamar Chase plus 135.

[Connor Rogers]

Probably prefer, I would say Chase's price for sure.

[Matthew Berry]

Jamars.

[Connor Rogers]

All right, another. Yeah, right. Another running back here, guys. How about Bill Jacori Crosky Merit, he's got the Cowboys which we love to see. And yes, Bill was RB38 last week where he only scored 5.8 fantasy points. But Matthew, forget like the matchup, but the usage is also good too. It's going to be there for Bill.

[Matthew Berry]

That's the point. He had the fumble. He's involved in the second fumble. That one was more on Daniels. But still 18 touches. 78% of the commanders running back touches as well. And each of the past two games, no one other than Jakory, Crosky, Merritt, our boy Bill has had a goal line rush. He's had 100% of the commander's team goal line rush each of the last two games. And then you think about this Cowboys team. Obviously they just got lit up by rico Dowdle, but three straight games they've allowed at least 85 rushing yards to a running back. We saw Josh Jacobs run all over them as well. So if you're telling me that Jakori Krasgymere that Bill's getting 18 touches in this game, you like his matchup against this Cowboys defense, guys that you know is 29th against the run over the last month. They're in bottom three run defense.

[Connor Rogers]

So his body's on the floor. Every time you watch him them, it's watching what the Panthers who played some backups on their line did to them was jaw dropping.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, I am I am nervous about this game. I mean, by the way, like, what was it on. On Sunday? You. You were like, I like the commanders to cover we. And I said, I don't know. Or Monday, I'm like, no, I. Turns out that was right. You like the commanders minus two and a half. That feels. I love that line.

[Jay Croucher]

Going to close closer to pick.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Jay Croucher]

I think this is a coin flip. I think that the commander's offense just hasn't found the level that it did last year when that sometimes happens.

[Matthew Berry]

They're super banged up too.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, they're banged up.

[Matthew Berry]

They need Chris Moore out there. I mean they've got like. They've got undrafted free agents and practice squad guys.

[Jay Croucher]

I do catch and pass. I do think jcm his situation at the moment, it's like the ideal. This is the time you trade for the guy. Right. Because he had a ton of usage and didn't do much with it and they lost the game and he fumbled. So he's not buzzy at the moment, but I think he's really good. He got 85% of the carries. Jaden Daniels is still a cheat code for a running back with how he draws men out of the box and he's got a very favorable schedule the rest of the way. He plays Dallas this week, who might have the worst rush defense in the league. Like, I think that, you know, other rookie running backs are more buzzy than him like Scatterboo and Judkins and Genti obviously. I think Jacora crossing merit has a chance to be better than those guys on the ground going forward. So I think I would try and.

[Matthew Berry]

Trade for and I am specifically this week. I'm keeping it open. I'm as a top 20 play.

[Connor Rogers]

We move over to the wide receivers. Welcome back Rasheed Rice. He's got the Raiders. What a way to return this matchup he will make. He's expected at least to make his season debut. Matthew, how do you rank someone like this that we haven't seen this year. But the expectations are so high and he's not coming back from being hurt.

[Matthew Berry]

That's the point.

[Connor Rogers]

So like in theory, if he's been working out, the stamina is there.

[Matthew Berry]

He looked. He looked great in training camp. No concerns on the injury. So to your point, like he's been suspended. It's not like, well, he's coming back. We want to ramp him up slowly. He'll be on a snap count, anything like that. Oh, like he's their best wide receiver. All due respect to Xavier Worthy, he's their best wide receiver. He played three full games last season. He had a 33% target share. And we've been talking about it, right. Just how awesome Mahomes has looked recently, you know, and just wants to kind of go just, you know, go scorched earth the rest of the way here. And you think about this Raiders defense, that's bottom five in the NFL in terms of most yards allowed to wide receivers, most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. And I do think the other thing is that they're going to want to welcome him back. I think Mahomes just as a quarterback, you know, knowing this is sort of like he's one of their guys. He's going to be a big part of anything they accomplish. Like, Mahomes is going to make a point to try to get the ball to Rice, to welcome him back, to get him back in. Back in the fold. So I'm as a top 20 play. I'm keeping it open. And I just, I don't have a stat for this. Right. This is just emotion. But this is a game we play. Anyone that has Rasheed Rice on their team and you've sat through six weeks, like, you're sitting there like, I can't wait. I can't imagine somebody that has waited through six weeks for this guy to come back. And just like, I want to wait and see. You're not waiting the seventh week. So we're all starting Rasheed Rice. We're all hoping I'm as a top 20 play. I'm keeping it open. Yep.

[Jay Croucher]

I've had some questions about Rasheed Rice, comeback player of the year. The answer is no, he will not be winning that award. It's a story award. And he's coming back from a reckless driving suspension. Even if he plays on my.

[Matthew Berry]

The off the field incident that he was convicted for is awful.

[Jay Croucher]

Yes.

[Matthew Berry]

It's like, like again, we're a fantasy football show. We're going to talk about the fantasy football value of these players. So I don't want to say, like, we're just, we're trying to ignore it, but we're trying to stay in our lane here. But like, it's a. It's an awful, awful story. And there were many people that thought Rasheed Rice should have been suspended for much longer than 6 games. I agree with you. There's no chance that they want to reward, you know, what he's coming back from is something that he created and that. Anyway, so, yeah, our next wide receiver.

[Connor Rogers]

Juwan Jennings, he's got the Falcons 1.7 fantasy points in week six. Jay, he's not only. We can't sit here and say, well, we think he's playing hurt. He told us he's playing hurt. He's got sprained ankles. He's got five broken ribs. He's got a shoulder at 20%. I don't know if it matters if he's out there. He's just gutting through this and. And ineffective.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, he's just at the point where you just need to see him perform at the level that he did last year to believe that he can get through this physically and still. And also, like, they have other options. Like, Kendrick Bourne has been really good. George Kittle has a good chance to return. Ricky Pearsall has a chance to return. And also this Falcons defense. I don't understand how this Falcons defense has been so effective. Connor. With their personnel. But yeah, they just. They fly rookies.

[Connor Rogers]

They're some of the most team speed in the NFL. Jeff Ulbrich and Raheem Morris have really kind of merge their philosophies together. They're like, you could say the Falcons defense is awesome right now.

[Matthew Berry]

Bird up. Bird up, indeed. I'm with you. I'm closing it out. He's like. He's like, you know, probably like three fourths the movie. Three three fourths through a John Wick movie. Like just John Jennings. He's barely holding on. He's like. He's like, you know, it's like. Or like a zombie movie or something like that. Like this poor guy. Right? I mean, he's just. It's unbelievable how many injuries that he's. He's playing with, all the broken ribs, the ankle sprains, and last week just an 8% target share. So you give the fact that he's banged up, the fact that he's got a lot more target competition, we expect Kittle back. Maybe Piersol is back as well. We like this Falcons defense. Like I said, Bird up. I have him barely inside my top 50. I'm outside. He's not even a top 45 wide receiver for me this week, so I am closing it out on Juwan Jennings. I agree with you, Jay. We just need to see it before we can. We can trust him.

[Connor Rogers]

One of the toughest ones on keep it open or close it out. Matthew. Jameson Williams just feels like he's boom or bust every single week. Probably a best ball dream, but in a redraft league, very frustrating.

[Matthew Berry]

And it just sort of depends on your situation. But I feel like, you know, Jameson Williams has become sort of this generation's Gabe Davis. Yeah, right. Like, no, but the argument that we was made like a couple years ago with Gabe Davis was like, you know, you don't try to guess because there's no rhyme or reason to it. You either always start Jameson Williams or you never start with Jameson Williams. It's like, it's like blackjack. You either always hit on 16 or you never hit on 16. Just pick a path and you got to go with that there because look, I can give you stats like, you know, they're going to take a couple of deep shots to him. Here's the positives on Jameson Williams this year, right? His two highest target share games have both come in the last three weeks. So two of the last three weeks. Buccaneers are bottom 12 in terms of most yards allowed per game to wide receivers this season. They've always been a pass funnel defense, the Buccaneers have. And so, you know, the over under is 52 and a half. No team has a higher implied team total than the Lions this week. So we expect a lot of scoring for Detroit. Jameson Williams coming off the big game here, but again, there's a risk that this is a Gibbs game, that this is a Laporta game. And I'm on raw St. Brown game. And so it is just sort of, it is high risk, high reward territory. You see it right there on your screen. He's my number 28 running back wide receiver. Sorry, I'm as a top 30 play this week. He's a shaky wide receiver. Three, I am reluctantly keeping it open on Jameson Williams, but like not steadfast, you know, I mean like if you've got better options, there are safer options there. Yeah.

[Jay Croucher]

I think the good thing is, is one, I mean he looked great against the Chiefs. There were signs of life there. So he's trending in, in the right direction. Even though to your point, there's not much rhyme or reason to his usage each week. And I think the best thing in his favor is that outside of the Bucks being a pass funnel defense is that the Lions don't have any players left in their secondary. Like this is just going to be a shootout and if it's a shootout, there's just going to be, I think more passing. I think the golf. I don't think that the lines are just going to be able to settle down into running the ball constantly as they have in previous weeks. So they're probably gonna have to throw, probably gonna be high scoring. And you know, James Williams is still really good and he's got a chance to get to connect on one of those deep balls.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. It's just the games that they need him. The script of this game suggests that they might need them.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

But as stuntman Chuck said somewhere in the comments over here, he said, this feels like a Jameson Williams rug pull game. Great matchup. Decent game last week. Classic Felford again scenario. Richard Broadus goes. Williams was borderline droppable before the big game. Is he a sell high candidate?

[Matthew Berry]

If he can. If you get a thousand percent, that's the, that's the take.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. Good for you.

[Matthew Berry]

If you can sell him. Absolutely.

[Connor Rogers]

The league of assholes, you'd never be able to pull that off.

[Matthew Berry]

Honestly, like, I'd take almost. I don't want to say I'd take anything for him, but you'd take almost like, because again, it's sort of your philosophy. If you're willing to use him every single week, then no, he's not a sell high candidate. But like, if you, if you don't trust it after that week, which I totally get, then yes, sell him for whatever you can because you'll never use him. Like, you know what I mean? Like, it doesn't. He doesn't do you any good sitting on your bench if you're just, if you're like, ah, I don't believe in him, you know, because you'll never guess the weeks that he goes. Goes off like this.

[Connor Rogers]

Our last player. Guys, congrats to Hunter Henry from graduating for the waiver wire show on Tuesday to keep it open or close it out on Wednesday. Three straight games though, under 50 receiving yards might have him kind of regressing back to the waiver wire show. Can you keep this one open, Matthew, Especially with how bad the tight end landscape has been.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, I'm closing it out. He's my tight end. 14 on Hunter Henry back to waivers. I know, right? Part of the argument on Hunter Henry was he was sort of like, hey, we think this Patriots offense is pretty good and Drake May looks pretty good and it's really just Diggs and Henry, but you know, again, they're getting production from Kayshawn Booty. They're getting production from Pop Douglas. Obviously Diggs is still there. Since week two, Hunter Henry has only one game with more than four targets. It's actually not a great matchup against Tennessee. Specific to that, their top eight, the Titans are. They're top eight in terms of. Of fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends. And so, you know, it's just. The question is, do you feel lucky that Hunter Henry gets into the end zone.

[Connor Rogers]

Right.

[Matthew Berry]

You know, because in games in which he doesn't score a touchdown, he's averaging six points a game. So like he's, he is the ultimate sort of touchdown dependent tight end. Now he's a great red zone threat. They like using him there. Drake may looks for him. So he's always got a good shot at scoring once. But that's the question. How lucky do you feel? How you know, what are the odds that he gets a touchdown this week? Again given the Titans strength against the numbers and the emergence of other guys, you know I'm closing it on Hunter Henry. Yeah.

[Jay Croucher]

Patriots 7 1/2 point favorites in this one as well. Vrabel was very conservative against the Saints once he got a lead. Ravel's always been pretty conservative in terms of running the ball with the lead. So if they are up big, there might not be much usage for Henry in the fourth quarter.

[Connor Rogers]

How about this one in the chat? Chubby leather daddies. Ask Mason Taylor or the Hockler.

[Jay Croucher]

Mason Taylor's gonna be the number one pass catching option for an NFL team this weekend.

[Connor Rogers]

Right. And we don't even know who the Hocklers quarterback is gonna be right now.

[Jay Croucher]

And there may not be a good answer.

[Connor Rogers]

Well, this isn't, this isn't a fun scenario.

[Matthew Berry]

No.

[Jay Croucher]

I would stop Mason Tyler.

[Connor Rogers]

I would too.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

Which is crazy. I thought it would turn for Mason.

[Jay Croucher]

Tyler coming off one reception for two yards. He was brutal.

[Matthew Berry]

But the whole, I mean, you know.

[Jay Croucher]

I'm not sure it was his fault.

[Matthew Berry]

Yes, it was not his fault.

[Connor Rogers]

To recap, keep it open or close it out. Justin Fields against The Panthers at QB10 stays open as does Jalen Warren at RB15 and Bill Jacori Crosky Merit against the Cowboys. The usage is there. So keep him open at RB16. But Chase Brown is officially a close against the Steelers. RB27. Welcome back Rasheed Rice. He's got the Raiders for that. He's wide receiver 20. Jameson Williams with the boom week and another good matchup keeps him just on the fringe of open. Wide receiver 28. Juan Jennings. Just too injured right now and the Niners will have other options. He's wide receiver 47 and closed Hunter Henry. A tough couple weeks for him. Touchdown dependent. He's tight end 14. That means he's a close. We take our first break when we're back, it's blind date. We got resumes of different players in fantasy. We'll do our best to guess who it is.

[Matthew Berry]

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[Jay Croucher]

The Dolphins Game's in Bridge.

[Connor Rogers]

Good.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, Head over there Commanders.

[Matthew Berry]

I should. Yeah, I mean they're the home team, but.

[Jay Croucher]

Right.

[Matthew Berry]

It's the Madrid game. Correct.

[Jay Croucher]

Some topos from Mattie Espanola.

[Matthew Berry]

Listen, the idea of leaving the country is actually very appealing to me, you know, I just don't know when I would come back. But yeah, the idea of just like, like going somewhere where I don't have to talk about anything would be great, actually. I would enjoy that. I might. Let me look into the. Look into that. I gotta talk to the wife and kids.

[Jay Croucher]

Some Pinterest for Maddie.

[Matthew Berry]

Blind date time, you guys. South park fans?

[Connor Rogers]

Oh, yeah, yeah, sure.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. Like one of my favorite things about south park is just, Cartman, screw you guys, I'm out of here. I'm going home. Like, exactly. I just, I dream of that every day around noon.

[Connor Rogers]

You should adopt it.

[Matthew Berry]

Carry the torch.

[Connor Rogers]

Report card. I'm going to just anytime you want. See you guys in the morning.

[Matthew Berry]

Screw you guys, I'm out of here. It is blind date time. So once again it's America's favorite game show. Here we, you know, in a bar, people sometimes meet their blind date. So here's blind date number one as you see it here. This is a. Now I want you to see this. So basically what we have is this running backs production through the first three weeks versus the second three weeks, weeks one through three versus four through six. And what you can see is basically the passing game usage has just completely disappeared. Any thoughts on this running back who started hot and it seems to have slowed down recently.

[Connor Rogers]

Jay, you usually start us off hot, carry us here.

[Jay Croucher]

Is it a running back? You gave out their receptions prop on a much watched program in America.

[Matthew Berry]

That's a good guess there.

[Jay Croucher]

I know you're a spiteful man, so maybe, yeah, Jameer Gibbs.

[Matthew Berry]

This is in fact Jameer Gibbs who has an 8% target share over the last three weeks. And yes, on football night in America that was my best bet was Jameer Gibbs to get 25 receiving yards in a game in which they should have been trailing with a. It made perfect sense. It just didn't hit and didn't come close to hitting. Before we dive into Jameer Gibbs lack of passing game usage recently, let's hear from his coach, Dan Campbell. We certainly don't want him either one of them getting too much, but I know that it's a little more tilted towards jaw right now and a lot of that comes in the two minute reps that we get now. The other day we only had six of them. But more a lot of times that's where that goes because he's normally in on that and that can skew it. But I don't feel like we've gotten jaw too much in a game yet necessarily. You know, I think he had like 36, 37 snaps the other night. And so I feel. I feel pretty good. But as far as balancing them out, I would like to balance them out. I would. I would like to give David some more. Find a. Find a place to get him a few more. So there you go. That's Dan Campbell talking about the running backs and the usage of Jameer Gibbs. So they've used him a lot. But, like, it's super weird that, like, he's got five receptions over the last three games. Like, bizarre. And in some of the.

[Connor Rogers]

In some of the games, two targets last game.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, in some of the games he's like, like it's been a blowout. You know, the lines have just blown out the team, so you don't have to worry about. But like in a game which they trailing the Chiefs and they're looking for offense, I felt really good about that bet and it's actually my biggest miss the season. Like, because if the line was 25 and like, he got zero, I mean, like, it just. He didn't even come close to hitting it.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, it's a strange one. I think they're still kind of trying to find their identity in this new Morton offense and I think that they'll ultimately be fine. They've shown plenty of flashes. But yeah, the way they alternate. Alternate goal line usage. The way they alternate. Who's getting receptions out of the backfield. Jameson Williams is unsighted then. He's the hub of the offense. It's just still, there's a lot in flux. I think ultimately you have to defer to the talent of Jameer Gibbs and he's still going to be fine. Like, what are you going to do? Like, you're going to start him every week. Are you going to trade him? Like, how many guys?

[Matthew Berry]

That's my question. Because Jameer Gibbs, I think if I just called you and said, like, hey, you know, I'd love Jameer Gibbs. All right. Like, I think Jameer Gibbs still pulls a, you know, a top five overall player price tag, but he's averaging 14 points over the last three games.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

And so he hasn't been a top five player in fantasy the last three weeks. And if you could get that, would you. So that's my question here.

[Jay Croucher]

Here are the guys I would rather have over Jimmy Gibbs going Forward rather. Bijan Robinson. I'd rather have Puka Nakua, whose ankle seems like a minor thing. Jsn, they don't expect him to play this week.

[Matthew Berry]

By the way, alert came out during the commercial break. No Puka. Poker doubtful for week seven.

[Jay Croucher]

That makes it a bit tougher. But JSN, I think Jonathan Taylor and then I think McCaffrey is kind of 50. 50 with Gibbs. I'd probably rather Gibbs because of the health, stability.

[Connor Rogers]

No, Chase. I think Chase is back.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah. Okay.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, maybe.

[Matthew Berry]

What about Aman Rah Saint Brown, his teammate?

[Jay Croucher]

I'd rather have Gibbs.

[Matthew Berry]

I think.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, I think that's. I think that's fair.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Jay Croucher]

But he's always in that.

[Matthew Berry]

The problem. Gibbs or Alan Lazard. Yeah, the new number one wide receiver of the Jets.

[Connor Rogers]

What?

[Matthew Berry]

I'm going to take Lazard, but, yeah, I just. Again, I'm not. I'm not advocating to definitely trade Gibbs, but I wouldn't mind dangling him to see. I mean, again, you hear Coach Campbell right there saying, like, he wants to get David Montgomery more work as well.

[Connor Rogers]

Montgomery looks great.

[Matthew Berry]

If the. If the passing game usage isn't going to be for the Gibbs. And I agree with you, it's probably more of a blip than not. But still, like, somebody was willing to give me Jonathan Taylor for him. Yeah, of course. And there's a chance you could pull that off. All right, let's go to the. Let's go to the next guy here. So this is another running back once again. We're doing splits here. First three weeks wasn't getting used at all, and then you see in weeks four through six, you know, he's top five, top six in the NFL. And targets, rushing yards, rushing attempts. So massive usage recently, but started off slow. Are we buying this guy? Do we think the increase in usage is a mirage or is it real? Any ideas on who this is?

[Connor Rogers]

I'm in on this guy because I think it's my. Judging by the change in targets and rushing yards, I think it's my guy, Ashton Genty, because he's been really good for the last two weeks, and everybody was in a panic over him. The first three weeks they finally stopped getting cute with. I mean, Zemir White and Dylan Lobby were on the field for passing downs over him, and they're like, wait, we took this guy with the top 10? Let's just always put him on the field.

[Matthew Berry]

Yep.

[Jay Croucher]

No, I think that makes sense. The question is, is that is the offensive line going to get better and give him the efficiency to match the usage, which I think is a question, is the quarterback going to get better? It's rough being a 13 point dog to Kansas City this week. But Genty, I think you feel good that Genti is going to now going forward match where he was drafted preseason, which is around like the turn of the first.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, yeah, yep.

[Connor Rogers]

You just wish the team was in better scripts for him. But if they're gonna actually throw him the ball, that changes everything.

[Matthew Berry]

I think we believe in the talent and the usage. We don't think that's going away. And so it's just a matter of.

[Jay Croucher]

He is exactly as advertisers. Yes. Having watched when he played my Colts a couple weeks ago, I was watching. Genti was terrifying. He just. He is. He has that Bijan type of gift of turning a one yard gain into a six yard gain.

[Matthew Berry]

Okay. Christopher Gamad says wants to ask Genti and Chase for Gibbs and Pickens who wins?

[Jay Croucher]

Genti and Chase.

[Matthew Berry]

Genti and Chase.

[Connor Rogers]

Because the CD coming back.

[Matthew Berry]

CD is coming back. And we just talked about Gibbs, who, you know, we think the passing game usage is a blip, but it might be more real than we think. So. But that's a close one. That's a very close one. All right, let's go to our third player here. And so this is now a wide receiver. As you can see here, the skews are a little bit different. First four weeks of the season, not getting a lot of targets or receiving yards. But last two weeks he has been elite top 10 in fantasy points per game, receiving yards, targets, air yards, utilization among wide receivers. Who is this wide receiver that has suddenly gotten a huge uptick?

[Jay Croucher]

Well, I was going to say someone who's exploded the past two weeks because of something that happened in week four. I was going to say Kendrick Bourne. Kendrick Bourne wouldn't have had the previous.

[Connor Rogers]

That's a problem.

[Jay Croucher]

So yeah, the other guy.

[Matthew Berry]

Kendrick Ward's a good guess though.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah, the other guy is. So Tyrique got hurt in week four. So Jaylen Waddle.

[Matthew Berry]

You guys are too good at this. Well done. That's exactly right. So Waddle. Once Tyreek Hill got hurt in week four, Jaylen Waddle has become a number one wide receiver in fantasy football here. We don't love tua. The offense seems a little bit disjointed and yet. And yet, you know, the Malik Washington breakout that we expected hasn't really happened yet.

[Connor Rogers]

They try to get him involved. It just doesn't work.

[Matthew Berry]

Just doesn't do anything. You know, he's getting a handful of targets but not much. And Nick Westbrook, Akine, whatever. Like. So it's like a little bit of Waller, a little bit of Waller, obviously. H hand. But then Jaylen Waddle is, you know, again, you sort of. You see it there or you saw it there on your screen over the last two weeks. He's ninth in the NFL in terms of total target.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah. He might just be back to the guy who was his rookie year where he was basically just him and Tua out there and he was the lead.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. All right, one more. So anyway, we're buying this on Jaylen Waddle since week five. As you see it there, he's a top seven wide receiver. All right, here's a. Here's another wide receiver and curious if you guys are interested in this wide receiver. These are his ranks on the season. Good target share, obviously. Targets for Ross, run average share yards. You see it all there. It's all top five step. But he's just somebody that. So all the underlying numbers are big here, but the fantasy points per game aren't there.

[Connor Rogers]

Chris Olava, is this player healthy right now?

[Matthew Berry]

No.

[Connor Rogers]

The air yards. The air yards gives me Mike Evans vibes, but the fantasy points are so low.

[Matthew Berry]

Give this man a cookie. It is Mike Evans. It is in fact Mike Evans who we think comes back here. These are all his numbers before he got hurt, obviously. And so the point is that while the touchdowns weren't there, like he's running a ton of routes. He's out there. He's Mike Evans. Right. You know, and just remember Ebuka just kind of had those crazy games early in the season. And so I think Mike, there's still a buy low opportunity on Mike Evans, who we expect back this week. He's going to practice this week. We'll see if he actually comes back. But like, there's potentially an opportunity to get Mike Evans below draft day cost. And so I just think it'd be a little tougher just because somebody that's hung onto him throughout this entire injury and then dealing him. But like if you could still get him below top 15 wide receiver value, because I think he is.

[Jay Croucher]

That game is freeze.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, it's not rigged.

[Connor Rogers]

They don't get any rights.

[Matthew Berry]

It's definitely not rigged. All right, we've got one last. We've got one last guy and this is a tight end. See if you guys can figure this out. As you can see, once again, we have skewed the weeks here. So the first two weeks this guy was a top five fantasy tight end actually number one in fantasy points per game. But since week three he's really fallen off. He's barely a top 20 tight end as well, you know. And a lot of the underlying metrics aren't great as well. Are you buying this tight end? Who do you think this is?

[Jay Croucher]

Is it our manhunter Henry?

[Matthew Berry]

It is not our man Hunter Henry. That's a great guess in terms of somebody that started hot and hasn't. Hasn't gotten there yet.

[Connor Rogers]

Massive Juwan Johnson vibes.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. Also a good guy.

[Connor Rogers]

I haven't heard his name mentioned since.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, it's not Joanne Johnson, but also really good.

[Connor Rogers]

Well, it has been since the injury a not great run for the Craftler. He's the other one that had the. We thought he was like going to.

[Matthew Berry]

Be the guy, the tuckler Tuck daddy. It is you. Good job, Connor. That's exactly right. Now the other thing is that in the game against the Cowboys, that crazy 4040 game, Tucker Kraft got tackled at the one twice. And if he scores even one of those touchdowns, let alone the two, I think the narrative on Tucker Kraft I think is much, much different. But we like this packers offense again. And with the Jaden Reed injury, which is serious, and Christian Watson still a ways away, I think that Kraft will get. I think he's just been a little bit unlucky. I'm still on in on him as a top 12ish tight end. Yep. Agree.

[Jay Croucher]

The talent is still there. You saw it on the weekend against the Bengals and also like it's. Yeah. Weeks three to six. He had a buy in there as well. So it's really just a three game sample. He'll be fun.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

Nice job. By the chat they were on the. They were on Tucker Craft.

[Matthew Berry]

Oh, well done.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. Regulars, Craft responses. Good job from the regulars. We're taking one more break, one more back. Back to the futures you all come here for comeback player of the year talk every week. It's time.

[Matthew Berry]

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[Connor Rogers]

DraftKings Sportsbook is an official sports betting partner of the NFL. New customers can bet $5 and get $300 in bonus bets if your bet wins. Download the app and use promo code FFHH when you sign up. Drafting Sportsbook the crown is yours.

[Jay Croucher]

Crown is yours.

[Matthew Berry]

Crown is yours.

[Connor Rogers]

It's time for back to the futures. Jay, you've been dying to talk about comeback player like seven different occasions of this show. The first the floor is yours.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah I don't know why.

[Matthew Berry]

My pick the crown is yours and the floor.

[Connor Rogers]

You get both today.

[Jay Croucher]

Yeah I don't know why my picky was so maligned on the pre show call. Diggs is 221 to win comeback player of the year. The Patriots like a 40 chance to win the AFC East. Diggs is top four in the NFL and target share the past three weeks. I think he has a path to being a top six top eight receiver in the NFL and a veteran leader on a Patriots team that could storm to the division. Look, I think Dak Prescott should be the favourite. I think Aidan Hutchinson should be the second favorite. Stefan Diggs is 22. 1. I think he should be the third favorite for the award.

[Matthew Berry]

Really? Over. Over McCaffrey with a McCaffrey three yards per carry. I understand. But like everyone just assumes he's awesome and the counting numbers will look good there as well. Or Daniel Jones. Well, you're a Coltsman now.

[Jay Croucher]

He's not coming back from injury. He's not eligible for the award. And then why he's 4 to 1.

[Matthew Berry]

A little bit at the end of last year. Wasn't. No.

[Jay Croucher]

No.

[Matthew Berry]

Because he was on the practice squad.

[Connor Rogers]

I thought this is a good one. Because in theory, if there is some kind of loophole that he did have some kind of injury, he's gonna be everyone's favorite story.

[Matthew Berry]

Yes, exactly like he's this year.

[Connor Rogers]

Sam Darnold. That's what he is.

[Matthew Berry]

That's exactly.

[Connor Rogers]

Everybody loves Sam this year.

[Jay Croucher]

Got his vote share doubled by J.K. dobbins, who finished seventh. He's not gonna win. Stefan Diggs.

[Connor Rogers]

Fair enough.

[Jay Croucher]

Son of Dirk Diggler.

[Connor Rogers]

People do forget that.

[Matthew Berry]

The chief ball catcher in front of the podcast. Stephon Diggs.

[Connor Rogers]

I'm a chief ball officer.

[Matthew Berry]

A chief ball officer. Yes.

[Jay Croucher]

Cheap ball off six man Barry.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Connor Rogers]

All right, guys. I'm going with Patrick Mahomes, regular season touchdown pass leader, plus 1500. 15 to 1. He's got 11. The leader has 14. Rasheed Rice is back. Mahomes is going to go on a tear. If this was. I think this should be closer to plus 800. I think Mahomes can absolutely catch up to Goff. Prescott Mayfield's going to be interesting one, but I'm in on this one.

[Jay Croucher]

Yep.

[Matthew Berry]

I like this a lot. How about I'm going I see your Patriots and I'll raise you one. How about Drake May for MVP at plus 1600. The Pats have only three games left against teams that currently have a winning record. Mac Rabel is the second favorite for coach of the year. How is Drake? If they end up making this run, May has a shot at mvp. That music means it's closing time. You don't have to go home, but you can stay here for Jay Connor and backup producer Pete. I'm Matthew. We'll see you tomorrow for Love Hate Day. Peace out. Hello.

[Jay Croucher]

Listen to my voice talking to you.

[Matthew Berry]

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[Jay Croucher]

The NFL into a smell?

[Matthew Berry]

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[Jay Croucher]

NFL with Old Spice.