October 22: Matthew (@MatthewBerryTMR), Jay (@croucherJD), and Connor (@ConnorJRogers) examine the Jets weighing their QB options despite a new injury to Tyrod Taylor, then dive into whether to start or sit Caleb Williams, Alvin Kamara, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Rome Odunze, and Matthew Golden among others this week. The trio also reacts to the breaking news of Jayden Daniels being ruled out at the Chiefs, uncover recent WR trends in the latest edition of “Blind Date”, and reveal their favorite futures bets to wrap up the show.
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Matthew Berry
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Jay Croucher
Is his friend X.
Matthew Berry
My friend X. Friend of the podcast X. I interviewed him. I interviewed at Kentucky Corps.
Jay Croucher
Without context.
Matthew Berry
That's his name. Xavier Leggette.
Unknown Female Speaker
X.
Jay Croucher
There are so many more famous people whose name starts with X.
Matthew Berry
Yes, but who? Name one.
Jay Croucher
The guy who was on the Supersonics. What was his name? X Men. You know the guy on the stage, Sonic.
Matthew Berry
Xavier McDaniel. Yeah, yeah, exactly.
Connor Rogers
The X Men.
Jay Croucher
Yeah, he's on the episode of Frasier.
Matthew Berry
Yes, but he's enough time has passed.
Connor Rogers
So we're ready for a new x.
Jay Croucher
There's only 26 letters in the Alphabet. Apparently Xavier Legged gets one of them. Unbelievable.
Matthew Berry
Yeah, my guy x. Yeah.
Connor Rogers
11 targets last week.
Jay Croucher
He gets it.
Matthew Berry
Yeah, exactly. You get double digit targets. You get to pick your letter.
Jay Croucher
That's the rules.
Matthew Berry
I don't make them up.
Jay Croucher
Do I get J? Do I just get to be J? No one else gets to be J.
Matthew Berry
You haven't earned 10 targets in a.
Jay Croucher
Game in your life.
Matthew Berry
Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry.
Connor Rogers
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Happy Hour. Connor Rogers. Matthew Berry doing the X sign. And Jay Croucher.
Jay Croucher
Unbelievable.
Connor Rogers
You get the nickname.
Jay Croucher
I like it is a Ronde Gadsden. One more big game away from being O.
Matthew Berry
Possibly. I mean, the big O was Oscar Robertson, who's well before either of your. Any. Even honestly before my time.
Connor Rogers
So it's time for a new O. Yeah.
Matthew Berry
It's time for a new O.
Jay Croucher
A ronde.
Matthew Berry
Yeah. It might be a. Yeah. He's one more game away. X. Yeah.
Jay Croucher
X. Unbelievable.
Connor Rogers
I think it's going to stick.
Matthew Berry
I think. I didn't. I think down there it has.
Connor Rogers
I'm talking nationwide.
Matthew Berry
Nationwide. America is falling in love with X. He needs one more. Good game.
Connor Rogers
I was going to say it really comes down to can you do this one more time?
Matthew Berry
Can he do it with Andy Dalton with the red rifle?
Jay Croucher
People, the big lesson out of yesterday was that people whose name starts with X really needs to step up in America and across the whole world, to be honest, because there aren't enough relevant ones, apparently.
Matthew Berry
I mean, Xavier Worthy. I mean, he's. He's like. He's a better ex wide receiver. I mean, I like.
Connor Rogers
That is factually correct.
Jay Croucher
Yeah.
Matthew Berry
And didn't Des. Didn't. Didn't DEZ Bryant always. He always threw up the ax. That was his thing. I know. It's a weird one.
Jay Croucher
What about Xena the Warrior princess? She's a great ex, man.
Connor Rogers
You should have that one in your back pocket yesterday.
Matthew Berry
Where was that one?
Jay Croucher
I needed it in the moment. I choked. It is Wednesday.
Connor Rogers
So you could all do feel like.
Matthew Berry
Connor, Give me one second. All right, guys, Give me one second. I do feel like I just need to have a private conversation with Connor.
Connor Rogers
That's fair.
Matthew Berry
Don't you feel like balls up? Yeah, exactly. Don't pay attention to this. But don't you feel like as a young boy growing into manhood in Australia, there's a lot of Xenia, Warrior Princess in this boy's life.
Jay Croucher
Don't you feel like she's a hero to Australian boys?
Connor Rogers
All right, lovely.
Matthew Berry
The great Lucy Lawless. You drink free today, too, by the way, Lucy, if you walk through these.
Connor Rogers
Doors, as you know, it is Wednesday. It is there. It is right there. The regulars know it. Josh J57 says producer Pete shows are like riding a train without rails. We could end up anywhere. And I'm here for it.
Matthew Berry
Factually correct. It's backup producer Pete, by the way. Let's be clear.
Connor Rogers
Jonathan Medici, Pete day parlay Barry. Zero meltdowns slash over three rants plus 500. Connor wishes he was sleeveless. Minus 1500. Croucher Poo Poo is a nickname. Plus 150. The crown is yours.
Jay Croucher
The crown is my cash.
Connor Rogers
Well done, Jonathan.
Matthew Berry
My cash. That absolutely might cash. We have but he needs to do the total odds on that. What would that have been?
Jay Croucher
I missed it what 6 times 250 I operate in decimal odds which is very strange but it's like 20 to 1.
Matthew Berry
Yeah fair enough. Fair enough.
Connor Rogers
I mean some of those have already come through. Yeah so you did kind of poo poo the nickname. I do wish I was sleepless.
Matthew Berry
What he does is he sits there as in judgment. He's the judgeler.
Connor Rogers
He's the judge.
Matthew Berry
Well done. He's like ah no not good.
Jay Croucher
Call me Aaron.
Connor Rogers
He's evil J for a reason. It is Wednesday. Every Wednesday we have keep it open or close it out. We're going to answer your start dilemmas hopefully and send them in the chat if you have more that we don't even get to blind date. It's the segment that is just sweeping the nation right now. Everybody loves it. Matthew gets to host blind date. You know what you've done a pretty good job.
Matthew Berry
Not bad, not terrible stunt.
Connor Rogers
The expectations were low but pretty solid.
Matthew Berry
I have to tell you my life has been nothing but a series of low expectations and doing a solid and job just doing enough to get the job done. That is, that is. That's a secret to my marriage success by the way.
Connor Rogers
There you go back to the futures. We'll close it out there with some of our long shot futures best Jay has one that it's gonna it's the Giants all over again from a couple years ago.
Jay Croucher
This one will win.
Connor Rogers
Okay. Alright. Let's get into the Roto world player news. Because the 07 jets somehow end up in the Roto world player news. It's really remarkable at this point we got to hear from Woody Johnson on his confidence in Aaron Glenn.
Woody Johnson
It's hard when you have a quarterback with you know with a rating that we got. You know I mean he has the ability but something just is not jiving but if you look at any head coach of the quarterback like that you're going to see similar results if you go across the league you have to play consistently with you know at that position and and that's what we're gonna try to do for the remainder of the season. If we could just complete a pass it would look good. You know we gotta complete some path. You gotta convince them that you could do something. Otherwise it's hard to have you know have a game that you could win.
Connor Rogers
Inspiring. I feel better.
Jay Croucher
My favorite part of that whole thing was it was very clear that he was thinking about what he was saying and he was hedging and holding back.
Connor Rogers
And he still said, he said the javeler.
Matthew Berry
He literally like you can see the machinations. It's like I should, I'm in front of press. I'm talking about a young man that I pay a lot of money to. It's the New York media. I should probably choose my words carefully here. Let me think through this. Let me through this. It's like, oh, he's got a terrible rating. He can't complete a pass. Like, it's like any coach would struggle with this quarterback effort. I'm just going to write, you know, do you think, Connor, you're a member of the New York media. You're. You're an Emmy award losing. You're an Emmy award losing member of the New York media, the New York sports media. You're the host of Badlands, which to my money is the second best jets podcast out there.
Connor Rogers
Right. By the way, Zack Rosenblatt in the background of that, also on the Badlands feed. We're taking over the world.
Matthew Berry
Let's go. Let's go. We like Zack Rosenblatt.
Connor Rogers
Great job covering the tv.
Matthew Berry
So as a member of that media, my question to you specifically is when he says the rating, does he mean like his quarterback rating, like the stat that we all use or does he mean his Madden rating? Because Brick, not a great word. Ch his son and said like, dad, dad, like, you know, he's not doing well in Madden.
Connor Rogers
I mean genuinely, like what? It could have been pff rating. It could have been quarterback rating. It could have been Madden rating. As we know in the past, the bottom line is we're talking about this because, well, backup producer Pete just told me in my ear that Tyrod Taylor is day to day. So we weren't talking. Here's from Adam Schefter. Jets quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who had a chance to start Sunday versus the Bengals, now considered day to day with a knee injury.
Matthew Berry
Of course he is.
Jay Croucher
Who's the third stringer?
Connor Rogers
Brady Cook. Udfa. Oh, no, not gonna be him.
Jay Croucher
Who?
Matthew Berry
Connor Cook.
Connor Rogers
Brady Cook.
Matthew Berry
Brady Cook.
Jay Croucher
All right.
Matthew Berry
Okay.
Jay Croucher
Yeah. I'm not gonna lie. This is about the NFL for a living. I've never heard of that person in my life.
Matthew Berry
Isn't that the guy that's the number one regular for us?
Connor Rogers
Oh, yeah. What is it?
Matthew Berry
It is. Oh, it's Brady Clark.
Connor Rogers
It's Brady Clark. Close enough.
Jay Croucher
It's Clark.
Connor Rogers
Brady Clark.
Matthew Berry
Clark.
Connor Rogers
Clark. Clark's Brady, the third string quarterback for the Jets.
Matthew Berry
Anyway, Justin Fields drinks for free. He might be starting Again, he might be starting again. He just got thrown under the bus on, you know, and that's a quote that's obviously making the rounds when, when your owner, when your boss, when your boss gets up and they're just like, you know, just basically trashes you. Like, could you imagine, can you imagine, like, you know, Matt Casey in front of the, in front of the press being like, you know, with Matthew, like, he can't complete a sentence. It's hard for us to get ratings, you know, that's the equivalent, you know.
Jay Croucher
What did he actually. What is it? What did he want to say? That's the thing. What did he want to say? Justin Fields. He's a bad man, by the way.
Connor Rogers
That's at the fall owners meetings. There's no requirement to do media. No, like, this is like, yeah, we're owing 7. Let's see how we can make things worse. Walk right up to the reporters.
Matthew Berry
Unbelievable. Right out of the Jerry Jones school of broadcasting here. Aloha Brooks saying Jets are falling apart faster than Barry's fantasy team. Interesting you should mention Aloha brooks because.
Connor Rogers
Both 0 and 7.
Matthew Berry
Well, they have both 0 and 7. Both have Tyrod Taylor on their team.
Connor Rogers
That's right. I forgot about that. So some fab spent on Tyrod Taylor who's now day to day.
Matthew Berry
Well, because here's the thing. So I have Matthew Stafford. I'll just very quickly tell you this and we'll get into Tyrod Taylor, but Matthew Stafford is on a buy for my team, my horrible team. Matthew Stafford is on a buy. Jaden Daniels hurt again. And of course, in the league of assholes, there's literally no one. You're like, oh, we'll just go pick up Marcus Mariota.
Connor Rogers
Oh, no, no.
Matthew Berry
He's been rostered for three weeks on somebody else's team. Literally the only quarterback that has a potential to start this week that was available is Tyrod Taylor. And who am I playing this week? I'm playing producer Adam, who's one in six.
Jay Croucher
Yes.
Matthew Berry
This is my Super Bowl. This is my chance. You understand? This is my chance. This is my opportunity to get a win. Like, this is my Super Bowl, Connor. Like, so I had to go, you gotta have this one.
Connor Rogers
This might be it.
Matthew Berry
This is it. So, I mean, again, this is like.
Connor Rogers
When the jets see the Saints in a couple of weeks, they better have it or else they're going zero in seven.
Matthew Berry
Exactly. I mean, I just lost Mike Evans for the year. Like, the team is terrible. The team. And I'm losing, you know, Jaden Daniels is going to play and I. So I think it's a super flex league. So at least Tyrod Taylor in theory could be a quarterback. But of course, you know, the minute I pick up Tyra Taylor, now he's dated with a knee injury.
Connor Rogers
El Segundo says the excuse lyre has arrived.
Matthew Berry
What was what? This is what I want. I'm dead serious about that. What about everything I just said is an excuse?
Connor Rogers
I think they like the nickname.
Jay Croucher
Yeah, I just want to say.
Matthew Berry
Stuntman, check the rattler. I will believe I will.
Jay Croucher
I was.
Matthew Berry
I'm okay with the exclusives and the excuse Lur is an unbelievable nickname. I'm just curious as to what I just said is an actual excuse.
Jay Croucher
There's no excuse there. I was going to text you about this, but now that I've got you here and we've got nothing else to do, you want to try to kill trade Derek Henry for Crenshaw Judkins.
Matthew Berry
I might do that. I might do that. Let me look at the. At the map. I need to win this week, so I might do that. I might.
Connor Rogers
You know, they say in fantasy you make trades to win a week, not the season.
Matthew Berry
At this point, I know I'm not making the playoffs. That's at the window.
Connor Rogers
The percentiles are against you at 0 and 7. I don't know. I don't have them off hand.
Jay Croucher
The jets could run the slide. Yes, the jets could go 7.
Matthew Berry
7. I'm sure there's a mathematical chance that it could, but as somebody who has played fantasy football for a long time, like, you sort of know when you have the horses or you don't. Like, this ain't my year.
Jay Croucher
You don't have Lamar Jackson coming back for the 105, right?
Matthew Berry
No, I. I'm exactly. I mean, maybe Derek Henry runs the table, which I understand why you want to, but like, no, the team's terrible. The team is just. It's been too entry decimated and I've just made bad pick like Chase Brown. Like. Anyway, they're just whatever. And Xavier Worthy now that Rasheed Rice is back. Xavier, like, they're all James.
Jay Croucher
Thanks.
Matthew Berry
Yeah. The team is not good. Sam Laporta sucks. Like, it's just awful.
Connor Rogers
Ryan Oswald in the chat says Jay's drooling right now. He really. I haven't seen him look that happy in months when he was talking about trades with you.
Matthew Berry
Yeah, Faithful happy hour with Jay Croucher and Connor Rogers. That's closer than you. That's more of a chance of that than you might think heavy meat sauce.
Connor Rogers
I like that. It's just fantasy football hour.
Matthew Berry
It's not happy anymore.
Connor Rogers
Yes.
Jay Croucher
That is a very slight standard hour.
Connor Rogers
Let's just get through it.
Jay Croucher
The drinks will be normal prices.
Matthew Berry
Fantasy football 45 minutes is what it probably is.
Connor Rogers
Here it is.
Matthew Berry
Yeah.
Connor Rogers
All right. How about keep it open and close it out?
Matthew Berry
Yeah, let's. Sure.
Connor Rogers
All right. This is Bymageddon part one. So you might have some serious questions of if you can continue to start with these players or you might have no choice, honestly. And we start with Caleb Williams, who's under 12 points in two of his last three games. He's at the Ravens. But Matthew feels like there's still some hope here for a bounce back in fantasy for Caleb.
Matthew Berry
I think it's all about the matchup here. I'm keeping it open. I'm Caleb Williams. Look, understand we have six teams on a buy and again you've got Jaden Daniels hurt. If you're in a super flex league. Bryce Young. Bryce Young also banged up. He's going to miss the week. So. So in a week where there's not a lot of options, especially in two quarterback leagues or superflex leagues, I do think Caleb Williams, who's been bad the last couple weeks, make no mistake about it, from a fantasy perspective, I think against the Raven, he gets it going. I'm at QB11. Look, the Ravens don't get home over the last four weeks. They're 32nd in pressure rate, right? No team gets the quarterback less than the Ravens. Over the last month. They're giving up touchdown passes at the fifth highest rate. They allow the second most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. And even though their defense is getting a little bit healthier out of the by J, I don't think it's going to be enough. The Bears offense feels like it's rolling a little bit.
Jay Croucher
It does. And I think one thing, I still think he's keeping it open on Caleb Williams just because of the state of buys, but will say the Ravens their last game. I think it's a good sign for the Ravens that they were able to keep the Rams to 17 points. Now conditions are a little bit tough, but the fact that the Rams. I know Pukinakua wasn't there, but without Pukinakua, they just put up 35 on the jags who have an okay defense for sure. So the fact that the Ravens were competitive, that gives you a little bit of hope. Also, while the Bears have been rolling. Okay, Cowboys defense, Raiders defense, commander's Defense. Saints defense. Okay. They haven't really. Now, the Ravens are not substantially better on defense than any of those. So you suspect that Caleb should have some success. But yeah, I don't think the Ravens are going to be the turnstiles that they were coming into that Rams game.
Matthew Berry
But over under here is 49 and a half. Obviously, the friends at DraftKings feel like there's going to be a lot of points scored in this game. Feels like it's a game again in a week in which you don't have a lot of options. It feels like a game to target. I still don't have him as a top 10 option, but I do think, like, are you starting Caleb Williams or not? I do think in this case, you do. I have my 11. I'm with you. And by the way, they've had two weeks to prepare. The Ravens need to win this game for their season. They are similar to me in that sense. I am Lamar Jackson. I'm John Harbaugh.
Jay Croucher
They have hope, though.
Matthew Berry
They have hope. That's correct. They have hope. But I have two titles. Let me know when the last time they've been to the Super Bowl. I'm just saying Coach Harbaugh, no big deal.
Jay Croucher
Of course it was with Joe Flacco. Is the answer to that question.
Connor Rogers
Comeback player of the year. Unfortunately, J. Stamps asks Caleb Williams or Jackson Dart the rest of the season.
Matthew Berry
Jackson Dart.
Jay Croucher
Jackson Dart. If you tell me that he's going to get through the season healthy. There's much more of a health risk with Jackson Dart. But at the same time, you take that risk. Everyone's a health risk.
Matthew Berry
I just, I. That's close, but I think I feel better about darts rushing. Williams gets these some points with his legs, but with Dart, it's a. It's an active part of. Of their offense where they call sign runs. Yeah. Yeah, exactly.
Connor Rogers
Launches himself at the goal line at defenders.
Matthew Berry
Yeah.
Connor Rogers
Great for fantasy.
Matthew Berry
Great for fantasy. I also feel like they're going to be more in comeback mode, I think. I think especially we saw this with my nun guy. But it feels like the Bears run game especially is starting to get going here. And so as a result of. Of what he was doing, I think they'll be able to run more, especially as it gets cold in Chicago and down, you know, down the stretch of the fantasy playoffs. So I just, I think it'll be a more balanced offense.
Jay Croucher
Yeah.
Matthew Berry
And so, yeah, I think Dart has probably more fantasy potential.
Jay Croucher
I think the thing and why it is Dart is that Dart is going to be the central protagonist of every Giants game. Right. Like Jackson Dart just in fact has negative connotations but he affects everything around him like he is the offense. Yeah. Whereas Caleb Williams, he just had a game where he did absolutely nothing and he didn't need to because they were able to run the ball and he had the 4.7 fantasy points or whatever. So the fact that Dodd is just going to be so ever present and just doing and has to do more stuff, I think that makes him the choice.
Matthew Berry
Yeah.
Connor Rogers
All right guys, let's.
Matthew Berry
Before we move on real quickly, just because we sort of. We did all the stuff with Tyrod Taylor, the only thing I just want to say is here just to again, we'll, we'll track that injury. But if he plays, I think he's a mid tier QB2. I'm a QB16 in my initial ranks prior to the news about the day to day with a new injury. But he's got Cincinnati which is, you know, a bottom three pass defense. And yeah, we think there's signs of life obviously with Joe Flacco in the center for the Bengals. So that game actually has sneaky shootout potential between, you know, Tyrod and Joe Flacco.
Unknown Female Speaker
Good God.
Matthew Berry
But I think he's a mid tier QB2.
Jay Croucher
Yeah. The Bengals being six and a half point favorites in that game is such an indictment on the New York Jets. The Joe Flacco with the Bengals defense is a 6 1/2 point favorite in the NFL game.
Matthew Berry
Yeah.
Connor Rogers
Anyway, I mean if Sauce doesn't play, you'd think Chase and T. Higgins go wild.
Matthew Berry
Yes.
Jay Croucher
Jamar chase has a 42% target rate with Joe Flacco.
Matthew Berry
Insane.
Connor Rogers
No, I thought it'd be higher.
Jay Croucher
I don't think anyone in the past five years has a target rate higher than 35% over a full season.
Matthew Berry
If I suddenly made you quarterback of the Cincinnati Bengals, what are you doing?
Jay Croucher
It's true.
Matthew Berry
Let me see. Let's see. I could try to hit, you know, a fant on a slant down the middle. Andre Yosef is take, you know, run a go route or. Oh, by the way, I've got Jamar Chase in the flat.
Jay Croucher
I think a sneaky thing that I do think is real. So Tour is the only quarterback who throws the ball faster than Joe Flacco this year. Joe Flacco just gets hit out. He's. What is he, 40, 41 years old? He doesn't want to get hit anymore. Like he didn't sign up for this for long. Developing plays and he can't move at all either. So he's just going to throw to the first read. And the first read is very often ja' Marr Chase.
Matthew Berry
Yeah, but that was my point the whole time when everyone was giving us crap about, oh, that offensive line. He's going to get killed. I'm like, he gets rid of the ball quickly. Like he's, he's. He took one sack against the Steelers. One sack. Just saying.
Connor Rogers
All right, we go to the running backs. Alvin Camara is our first one on the list. He's got the Bucs this week in this divisional game. He hasn't had a game with 13 plus points since week two. Jay, is there a concern level here for Camara? This has been a long stretch for him. Not really as effective in the past game as we're used to either.
Jay Croucher
I think there's a concern that Alvin Kamara has crossed the Rubicon in his career. He's not quite the same player that he was a couple years or even last year where he had such a great start. But the thing is that Kendra Miller, unfortunately with the torn acl, Alvin Kamara is just going to get a lot of work and it might not be very effective running the ball against Tampa because unless you're Jimmy Gibbs, no one runs the ball against Tampa. But I think it's going to be just a ton of dump offs. Matthew.
Matthew Berry
Yeah, that's the point, by the way, especially against the Buccaneers who allow the most receiving yards per game to running backs this season. Again, we just saw obviously Jameer Gibbs in the passing game against Tampa Bay. And so it's a short week for the Buccaneers as well. And so look, Devin Neal steps up to be the number two guy. I don't know, you know, how you felt about Devin Neal coming out of college, but does it feel like he not really ready for prime time? It doesn't feel like more just kind.
Connor Rogers
Of an in between the tackles grinder than an explosive dynamic threat. And Devon Neal was an awesome running back in college. I mean the game against Colorado where He had like 35 carries for the win, but you're not going to get, you know, anything special from him that you're not looking to include him in the game plan right now.
Matthew Berry
And so in a game in which the Buccaneers are going to be angry, obviously after that embarrassing loss, they're four and a half point favorites here. So you just figure that like they're probably passing more than they're able to run effectively on the Buccaneers. It does. To your point, Devin Neal doesn't sound like the kind of running back that will have success against that front seven of Tampa Bay. So the way they're going to be able to move the ball is through the air and with dump offs to your point, to Alvin Kamara. Look, with Kendrick Miller banged out. Banged up, I should say.
Jay Croucher
Come on, man.
Matthew Berry
Yeah, I'm banged out. But Kendrick Miller was banged up last week. Now officially, unfortunately out for the year. Alvin Camara played 85% of the snaps in Week 7, which was the fourth highest among running backs. So I just, again, it's not inspiring, but given the state of running back, all the buys and the amount of work that we expect him to get in a negative game script. He's my running back. 17. I'm keeping it open on Alvin Camara. I think you're right. You're hoping for some PPR scammery here.
Jay Croucher
Yeah, I mentioned, bang down to. Sorry I mentioned this yesterday, but the fact that the Bucks are only four and a half.
Matthew Berry
To be clear, just to be clear, for the kids at home being banged out and banging one out are very different things.
Connor Rogers
You almost gave Pete a heart today.
Matthew Berry
I just want to clarify.
Connor Rogers
I didn't say anything.
Matthew Berry
You absolutely said.
Connor Rogers
I said you banged out the analysis.
Jay Croucher
Okay. All right.
Matthew Berry
I just want everyone to know this.
Jay Croucher
What was my point? The point was. So the Bucs are only four and a half point favorites against the Saints. Yeah, I used to be a Saints fan.
Matthew Berry
I know.
Jay Croucher
They're terrible. They're not a good team at all.
Connor Rogers
They're actually the best one win team I've ever seen.
Jay Croucher
Confident. They're very respectful. Credit to Kellen Moore.
Connor Rogers
He's got the.
Jay Croucher
They are not giving up.
Matthew Berry
They are not.
Jay Croucher
That's the thing everyone says about Kellen Moore. Very organized, good leader and they're playing hard. So credit to them.
Matthew Berry
But they haven't given up. They're in Armageddon.
Connor Rogers
Spencer Rallard's been fine.
Matthew Berry
Yeah, yeah.
Connor Rogers
But I expected worse.
Matthew Berry
I'm just saying that we all did the Bucks.
Jay Croucher
Like if the Bucks are gonna make the super bowl, they're gonna be bigger than four and a half point favourites against the Saints. And with all these injuries that Tampa are dealing with, Baker coming back to earth a bit against the Lions and the fact that the Falcons are in not a great state at the moment either. As a nation. We need to be ready for the. For the idea that the Carolina Panthers might host a playoff game. Stop it.
Matthew Berry
That can actually happen.
Jay Croucher
Their one came out of the division league.
Matthew Berry
They're four and three. They're Four.
Connor Rogers
Oh, I know. They just beat the Jets.
Jay Croucher
They had the same record as the Chiefs. Yes, they could easily win. Not easily, but they could win the.
Connor Rogers
Division as a nation and we host the playoffs.
Matthew Berry
It could.
Jay Croucher
I'm not kidding. It could be Panthers hosting the rams in Week 1 of the playoffs where the Rams are like touchdown.
Connor Rogers
It was like an 8.5-point spread for an away team in a playoff game.
Jay Croucher
It's unbelievable.
Matthew Berry
Well, I didn't. The Panthers once made a playoff when they were like I think 7 and 9.
Jay Croucher
They won.
Matthew Berry
Right. With Rivera. That was the Ron Rivera year that they. So like could you see that again?
Jay Croucher
One week one that year and then I think I lost the Kaepernick or something. We serve. Yeah. No, the Panthers. I don't think it's gonna happen and Please. It just can't happen. Surely. But it could happen.
Matthew Berry
There's. It's within the realm of possibilities.
Connor Rogers
All right, our next one. Bill Jacori, Krosky, Merritt. He's at Kansas City. Usage has been great, but the point total has not under eight in his. Three of his. In three of his last four games. Matthew, can you give it one more shot with Bill to get going here? So she might not be a Jaden Daniels game.
Matthew Berry
I know. Unfortunately no. I'm closing it out on Bill Crosby Merritt. Look over the last four weeks it's a tough matchup.
Connor Rogers
Right.
Matthew Berry
Even if Jaden plays but feel like he's probably not gonna. But over the last four weeks the Chiefs allow the seventh use rushing yards to opposing running backs. He's just not involved in the. In the passing game. I mean so can't right now. DraftKings does not think Jaden Daniels is playing. I'm assuming because the line is 10 and a half. The Chiefs are 10 and a half point favorites. Jay, you're nodding your head. If Jaden were playing for sure feels like it's a six and a half line.
Connor Rogers
Jaden Daniels can't be a ten and.
Jay Croucher
A half point underdog against anyone. I would say that generally I think the Chiefs are about seven points better than your average team. I think the commanders with their defense right now are just like a slightly above average team. If Jaden Daniels healthy so say one point above average. So six points difference with home field as well. Seven. Seven and a half. That would be the line. I think if Jayden Daniels was healthy and he has receivers. That's the other thing is that Daniels is out there limping around. If he doesn't have anyone to throw to. It doesn't really matter.
Matthew Berry
Right. We don't know the status yet of whether Debo Samuel or. Or Terry McLaurin will play. Give me a Ronda Gadson. Honestly in this game. So the question from Steven Sandman to clarify that for the paper, listen or Bill full people.
Connor Rogers
Give me a Ronda Bartender.
Matthew Berry
Yeah. Give me the Ronda Gadson that. It does sound a little bit like a drink.
Jay Croucher
Yeah. For those twist form. Steven San Miguel has asked a question on YouTube, Gadsden or Bill for PPR at Flex. And I agree, it's, it's. Oh. As he's known. If he has one more big game horror. Gadsden.
Matthew Berry
Yeah. I mean especially because you're gonna have to make that decision early because obviously the Chargers play Thursday night. They're at home to the Vikings as well. And so I do think, I do think Gadson. We'll talk about him a little bit. We've talked about a lot. But he's clearly involved in the passing game. And that's the argument here is that Jakory Krosky Merritt is not. He's got a 5% target share this season. He's got zero games where he's gotten more than two targets. And so in a game in which they're double digit underdogs, like even if they do dump off to the running back, it's not going to be him. It's going to be Jeremy McNichols who makes a sneaky start. And so I just. He's my running back 25, but I just, I'm gonna have to start him in the league of assholes because my team is so awful and decimated. But like I'm not excited about it.
Connor Rogers
And our waiver wires are like Alan Lazard. Yeah, our waiver wires are.
Matthew Berry
Yeah, it's. I got outbid for Alan Lazard. I mean like, it's brutal. So I'm closing it out on Jakori Kroski Merritt.
Jay Croucher
I gotta say, I'm so excited for Ronde Gadsden tomorrow night. I'm ready for anything. Is this guy the best football player to ever live? It's ridiculous. Can you win MVP? It's insane.
Connor Rogers
Somebody in the chat was like two catches, 16 yards.
Jay Croucher
I feel like that's coming.
Matthew Berry
That's absolutely coming. Yeah, 100%. But like two long pass interference plays.
Jay Croucher
Yeah.
Connor Rogers
Where it's like, oh, there he is again. He's here.
Matthew Berry
The box score is gonna be too close in the end zone.
Connor Rogers
And then, and then somebody just punches it in.
Matthew Berry
No, exactly.
Jay Croucher
You guys keep talking. I'll check Aronde Gadsden's receiving prop on DraftKings. This is funny because good luck, good luck pricing that just basically we're taking.
Connor Rogers
Guessing that's somebody that could punch it in is Kamani Vidal. He's the Chargers starting running back. Haskins is hurt. Hampton is out. They got the Vikings on the short week. Just seven and a half points in week seven for Kamani Vidal. But Matthew, this is the guy for the Chargers who are still trying to get that run game going.
Matthew Berry
Yeah, I think, look, the underlying numbers obviously weren't great for Kamani Vidal. We talked about this a little bit on Monday's show. But I think the positives here is just the workload. 77% of the Chargers running back touches over the last two weeks have gone to Kamani Vidal. You see it there on your screen, right? And he's involved in the passing game like he got poor receptions against the Colts, you know, for 15 yards as well. So involved in the passing game, playing a bunch 10% target share over the last two weeks. Of the 13 running back Red zone touches that the Chargers have had over the last two weeks, 12 of them went to Kamani Vidal. Oh, by the way, Hasan Haskins already doubtful for Thursday night. So a big workload that we expect for Vidal, probably even bigger in this game against the Vikings. Vikings are middle of the pack in terms of run defense. They're 15th. So yeah, I think Kamani Vidal is a low end. RV2 high end flexed in this in a Buymageddon week. I'm at running back 22. I'm keeping it open.
Jay Croucher
Ronda Gadsden said a 44 and a half receiving yards over, over. Also he's 39. One to get 150. He did it last week and thus he shall do it again.
Connor Rogers
39 to 1.
Jay Croucher
39 to 1 to do what he did last week.
Connor Rogers
How many 150 yard tight end games have we gotten over the last five? Many.
Jay Croucher
I think if they really want to shoot plus 750 for 100, which is a bit more conceivable.
Matthew Berry
Yeah, I like that.
Jay Croucher
Yeah, he's the ultimate high variance player. Is like 16 targets on the weekends.
Matthew Berry
And well, you always talk about this, that that's, that's the way to, to beat the books, if you can, is to exploit that variance. Like where, where the books don't know how to price that properly.
Jay Croucher
Yeah. So for instance, like Sam Laporta is going to be priced as a median outcome. Not that different from a ronde Gadsden. Sam laporta can't get 150 receiving yards. That just can't. Can't happen. Basically, Ronde Gadsden just did and can again.
Matthew Berry
Yeah, there you go. The crown is yours. It could be, yes.
Connor Rogers
Stick around. All right, let's go to the wide receivers. Roma dunes a. A very quiet two weeks here. Wide receiver, 63 over the last two weeks. Matthew for Roma Dunes A, who was so good to start the year.
Jay Croucher
Right.
Matthew Berry
So, I mean, obviously, if I'm keeping it open, Caleb Williams, it makes sense that I would keep it open on his main wide receiver, Roma Dunze. He's my wide receiver. Seventeen this week. Every game this year except for one. He's had at least a 22% target share. Again, as we talked about with Williams. Same thing with this Ravens defense, Connor. Their bottom five in yards, in completion rate allowed on deep pass. As we know, A Dunes A likes to get deep. And in three of the past four games, the Ravens have allowed at least 16 fantasy points to a wide receiver. So if you're telling me there's a wide receiver in the Bears that gets at least 16 fantasy points here, you feel pretty good that it's going to be Roma Dunes A. We think that defense gets healthier, but maybe not healthy enough.
Connor Rogers
Right. And they just. They could play in a script to get him going. You'd hope in this game.
Jay Croucher
Yeah, the past two, I mean, they were running the ball at will against the Commanders. They were leading the whole game basically against the Saints. So there was just no real reason to activate Roma Dunes. They but haven't seen anything to believe that he won't still be the number one guy. And also the Bears, who are a good story and I think a perfectly fine, solid team, they're just not going to be leading games all the time as they have for most of the past month.
Connor Rogers
Our next wide receiver, more of a floor play with Khalil Shakir Jay. He's at Carolina. He's got 11 plus points in three of his last four games. But you just don't get any big boom weeks with Khalil Shakir.
Jay Croucher
Not really in the Bills here. Seven and a half point favorites. The Bills like to run the ball. I think they're going to probably overcorrect a little and lean more heavily into the run after they abandoned it against Atlanta and were chastised for it. Strange thing with the Bills and their offense, which has been a juggernaut basically every year since Josh Allen emerged as Josh Allen, is that Josh Allen's taken 12 sacks this year already. He took 14 all of last year combined. There's just something a little bit off with the Bills at the moment, but Carolina Panthers should provide a decent antidote. And Khalil Shakir, again, he's like the quintessential. Do you need eight points? You just want eight points in your flex? Then Khalil Shakir's your guy.
Connor Rogers
By the way, Darren Waller just went on ir, Guys, it's fun while it lasted.
Matthew Berry
It was fun while it lasted.
Jay Croucher
He had a good moment. He had some good moments.
Matthew Berry
He did.
Connor Rogers
It's time to fire up Dalton Schultz. That music screams that's in. If you were lucky enough, Schultz might.
Jay Croucher
Be the number one. Can you imagine? Told you two years ago, like, Dalton Schultz is going to be. C.J. stroud's the number one option in the NFL by far.
Matthew Berry
Yeah. Cut to Julian Hill getting 12 targets on Sunday for the. For the Finns on Khalil Shakir. I get it. I'm. I'm actually going to close it out. So I'm at wide receiver 34. Like, he's had one game with more than 45 yards. I agree with you. There's more of a floor than an upside here. Jay. Like, you know, he's just. But the problem here is that they're seven and a half point favorites. The Bills are. So it's. You feel like they're probably going to be more run heavy than pass heavy here.
Connor Rogers
Yeah.
Matthew Berry
The Panthers defense, by the way, actually, you know, better than you would think. They allow the third fewest fantasy points to wide receivers and just. There hasn't been the. Again, like, he gets. He's solid, but he just hasn't had. There's not a lot of upside with Khalil Shakur. Like, if they're going to take a deep shot, it's generally, it's going to be Keon Coleman. Maybe it's a Josh Palmer. You know, that kind of stuff. They've been using Dalton Kincaid more. You know, he's been banged up a little bit, but I just. I don't know. I'm closing it out. Even in a week like this. I'm outside my top 30. He's wide receiver 34 for me. Khalil Shakir against a Panthers juggernaut that. If you were listening early in the show, Jay Croucher says we'll win the NFC South. Jay Croucher on her show predicting the Panthers will win the NFC South. That's what I.
Connor Rogers
Host the playoff.
Matthew Berry
Host the playoff game. That's what I heard, too.
Connor Rogers
Yes.
Matthew Berry
I heard the same thing you guys did right. So it's you're on a limb. I like I like the boldness of that call.
Jay Croucher
You just wait till sake three because that's because Panthers NFC south is going to look like absolutely nothing compared to my call in back to the futures. All right. The issue with the bill is just like again it's like the Chiefs in 2022 and JuJu Smith Schuster was the number one guy. Offense is just too egalitarian and there's no Travis Kelce in this offense either. It's just there's too many guys who also they all work the kind of similar parts of the field as well. It seems like a lot of guys who like to run slant routes and then Keon Coleman jumping up for his two contested catches each game. So I don't think you feel great about any Bills pass catcher any week.
Matthew Berry
Strong use of egalitarian.
Jay Croucher
You can't even say I can't.
Matthew Berry
That's why I'm saying strong. I'm not going to try egalitarian.
Jay Croucher
Egalitarian. Egalitarian means equally spread.
Matthew Berry
No, I understand what the I understand what it means. I just don't make sure. I just can't use the word because it's.
Jay Croucher
It's an English word. Whatever you were trying to say what language you speak?
Matthew Berry
No, I mean my did you go.
Jay Croucher
For the Arabic pronunciation?
Matthew Berry
My vocabulary is small and that it was a big word I like these.
Connor Rogers
Are times I'm reminded he is a lawyer. El Segundo Shakir or Matthew golden the rest of the season. Well, funny you ask. Matthew golden is next up on Keep it Open or close it out here. So do you want to start by answering that or do you want to get right into Matthew Golden? I'll leave the adventure up to you.
Matthew Berry
I think it depends on what you need. Right. If you just if players. Right, exactly. So my point is, is that if you're like hey man, rest of the season I just. I'm in a 16 team league. I'm in a 14 team league and I just need 10 points every week. I just need four for 45 or whatever. You know, then I think the answer is Khalil Shakir. Because I do think to Jay's point, I think there's a floor, it's a low floor, but I think there is at least a floor consistent production. Matthew golden is like, you know, two points or 15. Like I think he is a good player that will eventually get better. The challenge is packers have a really good defense and they run the ball well and so could we see Matthew golden, like so many rookie wide receivers before him, have a strong second half of the season where it all sort of clicks in for him? You know, we like his quarterback, we like the offense. People keep getting hurt around him, but it just hasn't been there yet for Matthew Golden. So if the answer. If the question was like, hey, man, I've got my starting line. I'm just looking for somebody to stash at the end of my bench that could pop down the stretch, then the answer is Matthew Golden.
Jay Croucher
Yeah. Here's what I would say. Do you want. What do you want to be as a person? El Segundo? Do you want to be someone who's aiming to hit, like, squeeze a single past the second baseman? Or do you want to live? Do you want to live? Do you want to swing for the fences? Matthew Golden's the answer. He's the only one who's going to be interesting at these two the rest of the way. He's the only one who's got a shot at being interesting.
Connor Rogers
No concern over Christian Watson potentially coming back.
Matthew Berry
Right.
Jay Croucher
Some concern at some point.
Matthew Berry
Don Tavian Wicks will be back. Jaden Reed, like, they're all starting to get a little healthier, right?
Connor Rogers
Julio Think youk Are Always good to see Julio Think youk Are in the chat, would y' all trade golden at this point or hold out till he produces more? Doesn't seem like he's having a breakout game yet.
Matthew Berry
What am I getting for Matthew Golden? It depends on what you're. What you're. Like. It's hard to answer that, Julio in a vacuum, because, again, he's got upside, you know, but does he have more upside than Player X? Yes or no? It depends on who you're trading him for. Like, again, he's a lottery ticket here, so you're not going to get much in return. But if you. If there's a lottery ticket, you feel better about then. Sure.
Connor Rogers
Right.
Matthew Berry
Like, I mean, I'm just trying to think of another, like. Like, I'd rather have. I'm trying to think of another lottery ticket, but comment on guy I'd rather have, like, you know, like, he showed signs of life last week, but we don't know. But, like, there's a chance that he's, you know. Right. It's a. It's a tricky one there. I'm trying to think of, like, another. Another guy that, you know, I just.
Jay Croucher
Said, like, if you wanted to look at someone who's done pretty much nothing all year but could be in Theory has the upside to be a top 20 wide receiver the rest of the way. Like there aren't that many better candidates. And Matthew golden, like they spent a first round pick on him. He's high variance, he's very deep. Average depth of target. Like it could happen.
Matthew Berry
Here's one for you. Matthew Goldin or Jameson Williams that somebody.
Connor Rogers
In the chat has basically called them that.
Jay Croucher
Yeah, I mean, they're the same idea.
Connor Rogers
It's a wash.
Jay Croucher
Exactly.
Matthew Berry
That's my point.
Connor Rogers
I think it's a wash. Yeah.
Jay Croucher
I think they're the same play.
Connor Rogers
Maybe you get a little better floor with golden right now when Jameson Williams does nothing.
Matthew Berry
There's more variance with golden because we feel like we have a longer sample size with Jameson Williams and this. There's no reason for the Lions to switch up what they're doing. Yeah, but the packers, potentially, they spent a first round pick on this kid.
Jay Croucher
Yeah. Here's the other thing too, is that I believe in Jordan Love more than Jared Goff in terms of upside. But Jared Goff, who is fine, he's a good quarterback. He's having the worst 15 passing, touchdown, three interception season I've ever seen anyone have. He was not good against the Bucs. He did not play well. He doesn't. And I think that they are just going to continue.
Matthew Berry
They got Amon Ra St. Brown open on a crossing route that just like he hit him in stride and then, you know, it's a great play call.
Jay Croucher
Great year. Goff. Yeah. No Player X's Leggett.
Matthew Berry
Oh, there you go. But well done, regular Rudy. That is pretty good. But hey, Matthew golden or Xavier Leggett off of his one good game, you definitely get.
Jay Croucher
Yeah, they get out of nine targets, I guess.
Matthew Berry
But Matthew Golden. Matthew golden or Keon Coleman?
Jay Croucher
Matthew Golden.
Connor Rogers
Keon Coleman can't generate any separation right now.
Matthew Berry
I know I'm in a dynasty league where he, Keon Coleman was traded for Saquon Barkley last year.
Connor Rogers
That's a good trade.
Jay Croucher
I will say. Matthew golden is like the guy that got Saquon Barkley.
Matthew Berry
It is.
Jay Croucher
Matthew Golden's like a combined five inches away from an extra 150 receiving yards this season. He's had like three deep balls that were just so close. He had one against the Commanders, one against the Cowboys. I think he's been close and again, the usage hasn't been good. That's not saying that he's going to definitely turn the corner, but there is a lot of variance.
Matthew Berry
Matthew Goldin or Alec Pierce?
Connor Rogers
Alec Pierce, Colts offense.
Matthew Berry
I Know what your answer is? Honestly?
Connor Rogers
Yeah. You have no choice.
Jay Croucher
It's like AJ Mitchell over Matthew Carr. I love that. No, I wouldn't. I'll take it.
Matthew Berry
Colts, man. I get it.
Connor Rogers
Our last player here, guys, TJ Hawkinson on the short week against the Chargers. He has yet to have a game with 50.
Matthew Berry
Oh, by the way, specifically about this week, though, Matthew Gold. I'm closing it out. We had a whole thing after all that we never actually got into Matthew golden, but he's had only one game so far this year with more than four receptions. He's seen only 8% of the packers red zone targets. I'm closing it out on Matthew golden is my wide receiver is the thing.
Jay Croucher
And this is a good thing because it's a Sunday night game. Right. We'll be in Pittsburgh on Sunday for that game against the Packers.
Matthew Berry
Yes.
Jay Croucher
If you're down a lot going into that Sunday night game, fire up Matthew golden for the Pittsburgh secondary is an absolute mess.
Matthew Berry
This is true.
Jay Croucher
Joe Flacco look like God against them. There's a huge. Well, there's a chance that Matthew golden gets off the chain there.
Connor Rogers
All right, TJ Hawkinson, he hasn't had a game with 50 receiving yards this season. Matthew, are you still starting him? Wentz does look his way.
Matthew Berry
He does the Hockler. It's disappointing on the season, but I am reluctantly keeping it open again just given sort of the state of the position and the week that we're in. I'm a tight end. 8. Here's a positive. He's had almost a 19% target share with Carson Wentz as the start. To your point about sort of. Wentz looks for him three or four games. He's had at least five or more receptions with Wentz. Got three red zone targets last week against the Eagles. Right. You know, almost had that touchdown against the. Had a touchdown. It was overturned by replay. The ball hit the ground a little bit, made an unbelievable catch even to, you know, come up with the ball as well. And it's worth noting that the Chargers, your Chargers, have given up a touchdown to an opposing tight end in three of their past four games. Maybe the Hockler sits there and goes like, I can't have a Ronda Gadson be the tight end everyone talks about over this out of this game. He's over there getting 100 yards at plus 750. Absolutely not.
Jay Croucher
Big O envy for TJ Hawkinson. Yeah, I think, look, it's positive for him. I think that Wentz is going to start, by the way, Connor. Very strange situation in Minnesota. I mean, are we going to see James McConaughey?
Connor Rogers
Not fooling me. Yeah.
Jay Croucher
What is. What's your take there?
Connor Rogers
Unless it's just not healing the way they thought. This is very long. And maybe they're being careful with the player, but it was reported one way when the injury happened, and now it's being reported a different way. That's all. I'll say.
Jay Croucher
The way it was reported, like, it might be. He might be back in two weeks.
Connor Rogers
Two weeks was. The minute was the low timeline. I think four was the max.
Jay Croucher
Now it's six for a high ankle sprain.
Connor Rogers
And it's not like Wentz is. They're not rolling with Wentz.
Matthew Berry
No, no.
Connor Rogers
It's not like, you know, we don't need to do this right now.
Matthew Berry
A couple weeks ago, I picked up Max Brosmer in a Dynasty league just for the help of it. Yeah, exactly.
Jay Croucher
Right? Look at us. Yeah, look at us.
Connor Rogers
Max Brosmer waiver cl. What a life we live.
Jay Croucher
Yes.
Matthew Berry
How exciting.
Connor Rogers
And it's paying huge dividends.
Matthew Berry
It's a superplex league. Whatever. I mean, right now, let's. You know, I needed some quarterback death in that particular league, but. Right. Like. Like, I know. I know for a fact. I will say this, that the Minnesota coaches love Max Brosmer. Now, do they love him as a backup or as a potential start of this league? I don't know, but I know that they're. I know that the. That the. The staff in Minnesota has, you know, high expectations for Max Brosnar if and when he ever gets into a game. Like, they. They like him there.
Connor Rogers
They had a really good summer to.
Jay Croucher
Make the fact that, like, JJ is going to be the emergency. QB3 is a high ankle sprain. Your first round pick is okay to be an emergency.
Matthew Berry
I don't.
Connor Rogers
Something just doesn't add up here.
Matthew Berry
It's weird.
Connor Rogers
Something doesn't add up here.
Jay Croucher
I'll find out.
Matthew Berry
Yeah. Come back, Sam Darnold. All is forgiven. Come back, Sam Darnold.
Jay Croucher
Kirkler. Detective London. This is going to be my legacy.
Connor Rogers
I'll find out if Jay finds out.
Matthew Berry
Tori. Here comes Jay Croucher.
Connor Rogers
Nice. You should try this fantasy version.
Jay Croucher
I need to find one source first, but. Yeah, no, this could be great.
Matthew Berry
Yeah. Jay Gunn finds out pretty good.
Connor Rogers
All right.
Matthew Berry
You might have something here.
Connor Rogers
Finally, the Wednesday show will have purpose.
Matthew Berry
Listen, by the way, Pablo Torre is a friend of mine. Like, you know, he's an awesome dude.
Connor Rogers
I can show you the ropes.
Matthew Berry
I'll call Pablo.
Jay Croucher
I'll be like hey, set up a Google Meet.
Matthew Berry
Pablo, could you show my guy the ropes on how to find out, you know even more obscure stuff than you do even more random stuff. Yeah, maybe you. Maybe your show Jay Gun finds out, comes out after Pablo.
Jay Croucher
Exactly. Could be a lead in.
Matthew Berry
Yes.
Jay Croucher
Yeah. Pablo, tell me how to get J.J. mcCarthy's MRIs.
Connor Rogers
That's highly illegal. Keep it open for closes out recap. You probably forgot why you were here. This is why you're here.
Matthew Berry
By the way. I'll tell you this. I know two of the things that Pablo's working on right now. They are doozies. Yeah, I won't, I won't. I won't say anything but just there.
Jay Croucher
Yeah.
Connor Rogers
Caleb Williams. Keep it open. Starting quarterback this week at QB11, Alvin Kamara. Keep it open because of the matchup or at least the usage, hopefully. RB17, Jroy Crosby. Merit Bill. It's finally time to close it on. Bill. Kamani Vidal stays open on the short week. He's the only guy in that chargers backfield. He's RB22 Roma Dunze open as a top 20 wide receiver against Baltimore. Khalil Shakir and Matt Matthew golden are both closed. T.J. hawkinson the Hockler. This might be the week he stays open at tight end day. You're probably desperate out there, so you're probably not able to sit. Hawkinson. We're gonna take our first break. When we're back, a wide receiver focused edition of Blind Dayton.
Matthew Berry
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Connor Rogers
Commander's quarterback Jayden Daniels who suffered a low grade hamstring strain on Sunday is going to be out for Monday Night Football against the Chief. Sources say Marcus Mariota gets to start. That is from the NFL Network's in Rapaport. So it's official. The news we've all been kind of expecting. Sorry, Matthew.
Matthew Berry
Yeah, I mean you know, Jayne Daniels, quarterback of my fantasy team, quarterback of my, my real team. It's just, it's, it's been a tough year. It's been, it's been a tough year. Been a tough year for the Commanders. Tough year for Jayn Daniels. Tough year for my team and our league. I've had an okay year fantasy wise generally but this league has just been grade strain. Yeah. At least right. As a high grade strain. Yeah.
Jay Croucher
Chiefs 12 and a half point favorites now against the.
Matthew Berry
They just, it just moved to 12 and a half.
Jay Croucher
Not a ton of difference between 10 and a half and 12 and a.
Matthew Berry
Half by the official word.
Jay Croucher
But still. Yeah. Expect the Chiefs should win handily and as a result I think The Fantasy Repercussions 1 Corey Crossing merit gets definitively less attractive and then the receivers, I mean we'll just see with Debo, we'll.
Matthew Berry
See in Debo and McLaurin. I mean Zach Ertz is again I think a viable streamer and again if you're sort of desperate to buy mcgeddon I do think Jeremy McNichols becomes like you know, again kind of a PPR potential PPR scam artist here. Mario actually could put up some junk time here like Mario has been fine as a, as a fill in here but I agree with you. I think it's, I think this is going to get ugly on Monday night and yeah, I think they're going to get banged out.
Connor Rogers
The regular Rudy said the excuse ler has become the bummed outler.
Matthew Berry
Yeah, yeah, that's true. The Sadler Sadler. The Sadler.
Jay Croucher
Adam Sadler.
Connor Rogers
Well, blind date could cheer you up.
Matthew Berry
Yeah, blind date could cheer us up. So let me ask you about this player here. As I. Okay, so here is a player that and I just want you to see. So this is over the last three weeks Right. This is somebody who is.
Jay Croucher
Four weeks.
Matthew Berry
Yeah, exactly. Last four weeks. Sorry, over the last four weeks. Thanks for doing it. But as you see here, like in terms of his targets per game, his receiving yards per game, he's been a top 10 fantasy wide receiver on a points per game basis as well. A lot of utilization. Hasn't been all the touchdowns either because he's tied for 27th in receiving touchdowns. Any idea who this wide receiver is over the last four weeks? Who's been quietly a wide receiver? One.
Jay Croucher
Okay, so an elite wide receiver if you're going to be 94 yards per game, but not many touchdowns, high utilization. So Justin Jefferson.
Matthew Berry
It is not Justin Jefferson, but that's a great guess. Do you have a. I don't have.
Connor Rogers
A good guess for this one.
Matthew Berry
Dangerously close. Justin Jefferson's teammate, Jordan Addison.
Connor Rogers
Very nice.
Matthew Berry
Look at that, Jay. I mean like the thing about Addison here is that like he's just quietly been used quite a bit. They've gone past heavy as well. Great week last week as well. And so I just think sort of resetting especially basically with Carson Wentz under center just. And since Addison, you know, Addison was sort of forgotten in the preseason because of the suspension, everything like that. But like, like there's a second year player who's, you know, really coming. Right. Second or third year? It's third year. Third year.
Connor Rogers
Sorry.
Matthew Berry
Third year wide receiver. Maybe it's weirdly going under the. Under the radar because Jefferson's such a superstar and the Vikings, it's all about the quarterback and everything like that. But very quietly, Jordan Addison's kind of having a breakout year.
Jay Croucher
You know why the reason that is? It's because he's played two of the past three games at 9:30am Eastern like they were Stockholm seas. And so just no one was really.
Connor Rogers
Especially after he was suspended. So nobody's really gotten to see him him this year.
Jay Croucher
No, he's been a base. And the good Wentz who's deeply flawed as a quarterback and it's a human.
Matthew Berry
Yeah, I'm making that up. I'd rather make Carson Wentz all right.
Jay Croucher
Yeah. I think the thing is, is that he will chalk it up. He's like got that Nick Mullins ability. His issue was like turnovers and crazy sacks and stuff. Whereas like Dylan Gabriel just can't. Just can't put up volume stats.
Matthew Berry
No, I just like the idea like you know, like that influence ability as if it's a positive.
Jay Croucher
Yes. Like, you know, the evolutionary Nick Mullins who almost won MVP in 2017, which.
Matthew Berry
Seems and took almost $30 million of Commander's money at one point. That was a tough year. All right, here's another guy here, another wide receiver over the last four weeks as well who has gotten a ton of air yards. He's tied for fifth in receiving touchdowns. Obviously a big utilization score. So he's out there quite a bit. He's clearly getting a bunch of touchdowns. It's more raised up by his touchdown equity here as he's just outside the top 20 in receiving yards per game. But he's a top eight fantasy wide receiver of the last four weeks.
Connor Rogers
Is it Drake London?
Matthew Berry
It is not Drake London.
Jay Croucher
Chris Olave.
Matthew Berry
Also not Chris Olave. It is Matthew Golden's teammate, Romeo Dodge.
Jay Croucher
Wow.
Matthew Berry
That's right. Again, would not have gotten that similar to Jordan Addison. Just another guy that's been a lot more productive than you might think over the last month here as well. Like we've talked about this now, he had that one game. So I think this is sort of skewed by that one huge multi touchdown game that he had. But still, like, we think the packers offense is pretty good. We think they especially in the passing game, like they're not a high volume passing offense, but it's a competent passing offense. And like honestly, as we talked about earlier in the show with Matthew golden struggles like it's really, it's. It's Dobbs and Tucker Kraft in the passing game. There's not much else that you're worried about there.
Jay Croucher
Yep. And he's also climbed the Dobby power rankings. He's gone ahead of Josh Dobbs and also ahead of Dobby from Harry Potter. Now the number one power ranked Dobby.
Matthew Berry
J.K. dobbins. What about J.K. dobbins?
Jay Croucher
J.K. dobbins has fallen off a little bit past couple weeks.
Connor Rogers
I think it's romeo Dobbs number one Dobby.
Jay Croucher
Yeah.
Matthew Berry
And then J.K. dobbins is Dobby too.
Jay Croucher
I'd still have the Harry Potter one too. And then Dobbins 3.
Connor Rogers
Have your.
Matthew Berry
I don't think your daughter's old enough yet. Has your oldest daughter gotten into Harry Potter yet?
Jay Croucher
A little bit, yeah.
Matthew Berry
She's starting.
Jay Croucher
I also just started watching Buffy the Vampire Slayer which is a huge win because like, see you later, Paw Patrol. I actually watch a real show because I actually quite like Buffy.
Matthew Berry
Buffy's great. Oh yeah. Anytime you get the kids into something like you like as you. Well, right. Yeah.
Jay Croucher
Producer haters asking me if people get killed on Buffy Jump Paw patrol. I don't know if you know this people. It's called Buffy the Vampire Slayer. When you slay, you kill the vampires. So. Yeah, people do that.
Matthew Berry
So how do you explain death to your daughter?
Jay Croucher
Yeah, the vampires, they just evaporate.
Matthew Berry
Oh, God. Okay, so it's.
Jay Croucher
The moral is don't become a vampire.
Matthew Berry
All right, let's go to another wide receiver. This one's over the last three weeks now, but somebody. Okay, so the average of the target. Okay, whatever. But this is somebody who's, you know, top two in the NFL in route position and receiving yards per game in utilization score. He's out there basically every play. He's got a 91 utilization score and obviously third in fantasy points per game over the last three weeks.
Connor Rogers
Three weeks.
Matthew Berry
Over the last three weeks.
Connor Rogers
I think Devonta Smith, because he's always on the field and he's been a monster after they didn't throw the ball.
Jay Croucher
For the first four games.
Matthew Berry
Wow, look at Connor Rodgers from way downtown is Devonta Smith. And I think the argument here with Devonta Smith is throughout. For the entire season, Devontae smith has a 24.6% target share. A.J. brown 27.3. Devontae Smith 46, targets A.J. brown 51, targets 38 receptions to 29 receptions for A.J. brown, 504 yards to 395 for A.J. brown, two touchdowns for Devonta Smith, three for A.J. brown. On the season. On the season, Devonta Smith is averaging 14.3 fantasy points per game. A.J. brown averaging 12.4 fantasy points per game. And I just bring that up like I just. We always rank AJ Brown higher than DeVonta Smith. He went three to four, sometimes five rounds higher than Devonta Smith in preseason drafts. And I don't know that they're. The way that the Eagles passing game is currently situated. I don't know that there's that massive a difference between these two guys.
Jay Croucher
No, I don't think so. And as I check on fantasylife.com Matthew remaining strength of schedule for wide receivers. The Eagles have the second easiest remaining strength schedule. So I think that it seems like they did turn the corner a bit coming out of the minibuy.
Connor Rogers
Yes. If you held on to Devonta Smith, you feel really good about it after a brutal, brutal stretch. Right.
Matthew Berry
And now they get The Giants bottom 10 pass defense this week in an orange game.
Connor Rogers
Paulson adibo left at the end of that game. If he doesn't play, you could feast on the Giant secondary. So we'll see.
Matthew Berry
All right. I believe that is it for blind date. We had a couple more but I think we but shockingly, backup producer Pete didn't keep us on time. So we've run out and cut it short. So we're just gonna cut it short. We'll be back right after this. Back to the futures and back to the futures Looking for a smarter way to watch the big game? Sling has launched a game changing way to stream live TV with passes. Instead of committing to a monthly plan you might not use, Passes gives instant access for just a day, a week or a weekend with a day pass. Nonstop. College football is available for 24 hours for only 499. ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC games simulcast on ESPN3 are included. And for just one more dollar you can add SEC or ACC networks. Sling puts fans in charge with total flexibility and control. Watch what's wanted when it's wanted. Best of all, you don't need to remember to cancel when your access is up. You won't be charged again until you purchase another day pass. Passes are only available for orange subscription packages. Visit sling.com to learn more.
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Connor Rogers
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Jay Croucher
Crown is yours, yours.
Matthew Berry
It's yours. I was not sure. Turns out it's mine or it's Yours.
Connor Rogers
Back to the futures, Jay. You've been hyping up this one for hours.
Jay Croucher
Yeah, you guys are going to laugh at me for this one. But you know what? Screw. Screw you guys. You don't make the rules.
Matthew Berry
That's right.
Jay Croucher
I make the rules. The Cincinnati Bengals are not listed on this page, on this screen for the AFC championship. Are they going to the Super Bowl? They're 80 to 11 make the Super Bowl. They have a favorable schedule coming up. Stop laughing. It's not funny. It's not funny. It's a very serious segment. Gonna make the people a lot of money betting on the Bengals to make the Super bowl at 81. So here's the thing.
Matthew Berry
They're plus 270 to make the Super Bowl. Not even to win.
Jay Croucher
Just to make the Super Bowl. Just to make. You don't even have to win it. Just make the Super Bowl.
Connor Rogers
Here's the Super Bowl.
Jay Croucher
I'll make it very short. The Bengals are plus 270 to make the playoffs when Joe. If they make the playoffs and Joe Burrow is back, they will not be 21 to win the AFC. The Bengals with Joe Burrow can be any team in the playoffs. He's Joe Burrow. He's very good. He's very good. They shouldn't be 81 to win the AFC.
Matthew Berry
This is, again, just so you know, like, it's not that you're saying it's happening, but you were just saying this is mispriced. This is a mispriced bet. It's an opportunity that if it cashes.
Jay Croucher
I'm not betting it at 35 to 1. Betting it.
Connor Rogers
Yes, absolutely. All right, I'll go a little safer here. How about Micah Parsons to lead the league in sacks, plus 800, by the way.
Jay Croucher
I like that. Yeah.
Connor Rogers
Longer odds than you'd expect because he has five and a half right now. Brian Burns has nine. But I think the packers are going to be leading a lot of games like we saw in that fourth quarter where he had three, where he was able to kind of tee off.
Jay Croucher
Parsons has a game in hand as well. He's already had his buy.
Connor Rogers
Great call out. So I just like this number. Much like you, I think this is a good price.
Matthew Berry
Yeah, I think that's a. I think that's a great price. And betting on Micah Parsons usually works out. I'm going to say Tyler Warren for offensive rookie of the Year. I don't understand how he's still the third favorite. He leads all tight ends and receiving yards this year. Like, I said the voters are going to reward the Colts for their season and this is one way to do it because Tyler Warren has been all world Dart is probably not making the playoffs and Buk has been banged up. So Tyler Warren at +450 it's closing time. You don't have to go home. You can't stay here. For Jade Conrad. Matthew, we'll see you tomorrow for love. Hey, peace out.
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This episode is packed with classic Matthew Berry banter, detailed start/sit advice for Week 8's toughest fantasy dilemmas, discussion of player injuries and waiver wire stashes, and the crew's popular “Keep It Open or Close It Out” segment. The focus is on helping listeners navigate "Bymageddon" — a week overloaded with byes and difficult lineup decisions. Additionally, the trio brings their signature humor, digressions, and sharp analysis to bear on listener questions, player debates, and future bets.
Bengals to Make the Super Bowl
Micah Parsons to Lead League in Sacks:
Tyler Warren for Offensive ROY:
| Player | Decision | Rationale | |------------------------|--------------|--------------------------------------------------------| | Caleb Williams (QB) | Open | Great matchup, few options in a tough bye week | | Tyrod Taylor (QB) | Open (if plays) | Weak Bengals pass defense, potential QB2 value | | Alvin Kamara (RB) | Open | Volume + PPR upside vs. Bucs' RB receiving weakness | | Jakori Kroski-Merritt (RB) | Closed | No pass game role, tough matchup, low upside | | Kamani Vidal (RB) | Open | Workhorse touches, good flex/play in Bye-pocalypse | | Roma Dunze (WR) | Open | Main target, plus matchup, positive game script | | Khalil Shakir (WR) | Closed | No big games/upside, Buffalo run-heavy favorites | | Matthew Golden (WR) | Closed (active week), open(long-term stash) | High variance, future upside, not yet producing | | T.J. Hockenson (TE) | Open | Usage, Chargers vulnerable to TEs, lack of TE depth |
This episode of Fantasy Football Happy Hour showcased Matthew Berry’s trademark mix of deep analysis, humor, and practical advice, including start/sit calls for key fantasy players, waiver/lottery ticket philosophy, and wisecracking camaraderie that keeps loyal listeners coming back. Even with “Bymageddon” upon us, Berry’s team may be in shambles, but his insights (and self-deprecation) are as sharp as ever.