Wild Card Weekend Preview, Prop Bets + Playoff Positional Rankings

Summary

Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry

Episode: Wild Card Weekend Preview, Prop Bets + Playoff Positional Rankings
Date: January 8, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode revolves around two key themes:

• Previewing Wild Card Weekend: Deep strategic discussion and analysis of matchups, fantasy-relevant players, bettable lines, and team outlooks for each playoff game.
• Playoff-Specific Rankings and Strategy: Matthew Berry’s rankings, playoff fantasy league strategy, and value judgments on trending and controversial players.

The panel—Matthew Berry, Jay, Connor, and Lawrence—is back together with their signature banter, focusing entirely on playoff football and player outlooks, with actionable fantasy and betting advice.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

Coaching Changes and Fantasy Fallout

• Mike McDaniel Fired by Dolphins ([05:11]):

  • Panel discusses the delayed timing of McDaniel’s firing and speculates on potential replacements, notably John Harbaugh. Jay remarks, “Schematically he's one of the best offensive coaches in the entire sport” (08:12), while Connor underscores the impact: “I think it's a loss to Devon A. Chan's value” (08:32).
  • Fantasy Implications: Downgrade for Dolphins skill position players, especially Devon Achane and possibly Jalen Waddle, until a new coach is named.

• John Harbaugh Released from Ravens ([09:20]):

  • Jay notes, “Flores to me is the really interesting one. … get a defensive minded head coach.” (10:15)
  • Panel debates candidates and the importance of quarterback situations for incoming coaches.
  • Team Improvement Narrative: Jay argues, “...if you are a head coach in demand … it’s all about the quarterback.” (13:28)

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Wild Card Matchups: Game Breakdowns, Prop Bets, and Fantasy Leans

Panthers @ Rams ([14:51])

• Outlook: Rams are 10.5-point favorites, but skepticism abounds. Matthew: “The problem with the Panthers is they don’t do anything well.” (16:51)
  • Key Fantasy Players:
    • Rams: Stafford, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua
    • Panthers: Tetterallo McMillan (“he is the best chance the Panthers have in this game” – Matthew, 20:17)
  • Notable Stat: Rams might be theoretical 14.5-point favorites at home (17:10), highlighting perceived mismatch.

Packers @ Bears ([21:57])

• DFS & Prop Breakdown:
  • Bears’ Luther Burden highlighted for value in DFS (Lawrence, 23:39).
  • Josh Jacobs expected to carry the load for the Packers (Connor, 22:17).
  • QB edge to Packers’ Jordan Love (“I feel better about Jordan Love than I do Sam Donald…” – Matthew, 24:28)
  • Both teams expected to lean on the run; passing props focus on explosive, after-the-catch wideouts (26:09).

Bills @ Jaguars ([27:00])

• Stacking & Fade Recommendations: Connor prefers Jaguars stacks, notably Travis Etienne and Parker Washington: “ETN has a big game here. They run him a ton.” (27:57)
• Sharp Money and Unders: “I took the under in this game… It just doesn’t feel like a shootout to me.” (28:16)
• Key Props: Matthew says, “I would lean under on James Cook, 79. The Jags have the best rush defense in the NFL.” (29:35)

Eagles @ 49ers ([31:32])

• High-End Markers: McCaffrey a safe high-volume daily play: “Christian McCaffrey is going to touch the ball 25 times this game.” (32:10)
• George Kittle seen as key fantasy option against Eagles’ suspect TE defense: “Kittle has a big game here.” (33:35)
• Eagles seek to establish run game with Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts. Jay: “This is the game to do it. …you can run the ball against them.” (34:03)

Chargers @ Patriots ([38:16])

• Highlighting Injury Risk: Hampton if healthy is a strong play vs NE’s weak run defense. “If Hampton does play, it is a favorable matchup…” (40:10)
• Patriots defense a DFS option due to Herbert’s sack risk.

Texans @ Steelers (briefly teased, full preview coming Monday) ([40:17])

• Nico Collins as top option: “He’s the focal point of that passing attack…” (40:35)
• Kenneth Gainwell called a sneaky PPR play for Steelers due to likely dump-offs (40:35, 51:23).

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Playoff Positional Rankings & Strategies ([44:34])

Quarterbacks

• Stafford as Playoff QB1: “Stafford… second highest odds to make the Super Bowl. …Better chance that Stafford plays the most games.” (44:34, 46:28)
• Strategic Note: Playoff formats reward QBs who can compile stats over multiple games (46:05).

Running Backs

• Kyren Williams as RB1: Reiterated as playoff workhorse due to Rams’ odds and usage trend (48:02).
• “If you could get out of this wild card round with the Bills… you’ll still have James Cook and hopefully somehow avoid the Houston Texans…” (47:23)
• Etienne: Jaguars have “better chances than people are giving them against Buffalo.” (48:34)

Wide Receivers

• Puka Nacua at the top.
• Devonte Adams is “touchdown-dependent but… Stafford looks for [him] when he gets close.” (49:54)
• Parker Washington, Jacoby Myers, Nico Collins, and other mid-tier options for deep playoff runs.

Tight Ends

• Top-Tier:

  • George Kittle: “If you’re doing a draft, reaching for Kittle is fine. …could play multiple games.” (51:48)
  • Dallas Goedert: “He leads the Eagles in receiving touchdowns… I actually think the Eagles will be in the Super Bowl again.” (52:20)

• Brenton Strange as playoff sleeper: “Five straight games with at least one red zone target…not a lot at the tight end position.” (51:48)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Schematically he's one of the best offensive coaches in the sport.” – Jay on Mike McDaniel, [08:12]
• “I think it's a loss to Devon A. Chan's value.” – Connor, [08:32]
• “If you are a head coach in demand and you can choose, it’s all about the quarterback.” – Connor, [13:28]
• “The problem with the Panthers is they don’t do anything well.” – Matthew, [16:51]
• “Tetterallo McMillan, he is the best chance the Panthers have in this game.” – Matthew, [20:17]
• “No team allows a higher completion percentage on deep passes 15 yards or more downfield than the Chicago Bears.” – Connor, [26:45]
• “Christian McCaffrey is going to touch the ball 25 times this game.” – Connor, [32:10]
• “If you're going to pay up for one [daily play], the two superstars I would be willing to pay up this weekend are Puka Nakua and Chris McCaffrey.” – Connor, [32:13]
• “I actually think the Eagles will be in the Super Bowl again. So [Goddard] is the type of tight end that I would target.” – Lawrence, [52:20]
• “Stafford is an 85% chance to get out of round one according to the market, whereas the guys directly beneath him…Josh Allen is a 50% chance…” – Matthew, [46:28]

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Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• [05:11]—Miami Dolphins fire Mike McDaniel; coaching carousel speculation
• [09:20]—John Harbaugh released by Ravens; debate on replacement and implications
• [14:51]—Panthers vs Rams preview, fantasy angles, and spread discussion
• [21:57]—Packers vs Bears DFS and prop leans
• [27:00]—Bills vs Jaguars; why Connor wants to stack Jaguars, thoughts on under
• [31:32]—Eagles vs 49ers; McCaffrey and Kittle as featured plays
• [38:16]—Chargers vs Patriots; RB injury concern, Pats DST DFS value
• [40:17]—Teaser on Texans vs Steelers, Nico Collins outlook
• [44:34]—Matthew Berry’s playoff fantasy positional rankings: QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs
• [52:20]—Tight end ranks, Goddard play, and Jacksonville outlook

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Final Segment: Prop Bet Pickup Lines ([55:22])

• Jay: “SAQUON BARKLEY Over 18.5 rushing attempts… over in four straight.” (55:28)
• Lawrence: “Brock Purdy 20 rushing yards at plus 107. …Done it three of last four games.” (55:51)
• Jay: “Ramandre Stevenson over 13.5 receiving yards. …Last five games.” (56:26)
• Matthew: Rejects Connor’s pick, closes the show with the usual humor.

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Summary in Original Tone

This episode blends sharp, actionable playoff fantasy and betting analysis with the panel’s trademark laughter and irreverence. From breakdowns of new coaching vacancies to detailed positional playoff rankings, the show gives listeners both the “why” behind key fantasy takes and the “how” for winning various playoff formats.

Berry and the crew emphasize opportunity, playoff path, and matchup nuance—especially in playoff leagues, where cumulative games matter as much as player talent. Iconic lines like “Pick the good ones, Mick!” (47:03) and “Christian McCaffrey is going to touch the ball 25 times this game” (32:10) both reinforce actionable advice and keep the entertainment high for fans craving deep-dive fantasy talk as the NFL postseason begins.

Transcript

[Matthew Berry]

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[Jay]

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[Jay]

And say, you won't believe where I am.

[Connor]

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[Jay]

Well, I was here for the carryover that Monday. Saw a lot of it in the chat.

[Matthew Berry]

Didn't love it any sense.

[Lawrence]

Did not love it.

[Connor]

Brown Gobbler, the best thing we come up with this year.

[Jay]

Weird how the season went off the rails right around then.

[Matthew Berry]

I'm surprised you didn't drop that on the fnia Bengals Ravens during your parlay. Take the Brown gobbler over 70 and.

[Jay]

A half rushing segment.

[Connor]

Would have loved to.

[Jay]

You got something like you're heating something up there, but you're leaving it in the holster right now.

[Connor]

Yeah. Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry.

[Jay]

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Happy Hour. The gang is back. When was the last time all four of us did a show together?

[Connor]

It's been a while.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. Apparently Lawrence is a new human being.

[Lawrence]

I'm sure you know I'm trying to get that seventh, eighth year of college eligibility. Yeah, I hear that the NBA is sending players to college now, so I'm just, just trying to get in on it.

[Matthew Berry]

My man looks 14.

[Connor]

I know. You could dye that white and literally be Cisco.

[Lawrence]

Yeah, Yeah, I could go that route. You know, maybe super bowl week. We'll get there.

[Jay]

It's gonna be a fun show today. Lot to do. Reviewing, of course, hopefully previewing the playoffs. We're getting to the coaching carousel that heated up this morning as the Dolphins moved on from Mike McDaniel. And all three of us, all three of us have pickup lines for Matthews. So Instead of him just having to choose Jay over me every time, he's gonna choose Jay over me. And Lawrence, I heard he does this to you too, on the weekends.

[Lawrence]

Yeah, yeah, he do.

[Connor]

But in fairness, at least. At least Lawrence always takes all these plus money, these crazy plus money bets.

[Jay]

You just don't like me.

[Connor]

Yeah, 100%. Now you've nailed it down. I don't like you. I just don't like his bets. There's a very, very specific difference there.

[Jay]

Glad we got the science down. Who drinks free today?

[Connor]

I will tell you why, you know, because, you know, we as the season has been slowing down, right? And so there'. Football. And we're so excited about the weekend. What are other people doing? Well, people have been starting to watch Stranger Things, right? And so the finale happened recently. Connor, you and I did a deep dive on it as well. No spoilers. I'm not Jay Croucher here. But I'll tell you who drinks free is Stranger Things fans drink free. Because yesterday. So if the algorithm. If your social media algorithm knows that you are a Stranger Things fan and I am one of them, I have been nothing but insane videos about a crazy ninth episode that was past the finale. That last week was not supposed. Supposed to be the finale. That the last episode that there was secret. There's all these crazy conspiracy theories out there, and there's supposed to be this secret episode that aired yesterday, and there were so many people that bought into this conspiracy theory that Netflix literally crashed. And it's not true at all. It's not true at all. Netflix literally had to release an official statement. It's ridiculous that the series is over. There is no secret episode. There's no sixth season. It's like, it's done. What you saw happened is what happened.

[Jay]

And now you just watch football play.

[Connor]

And now you can just watch football play a football. And so whether you are a fan, whether you one of those crazy conspiracy fans who like all these people like you now look dumb because you've been like, I promise you there's a new episode coming. Or you're just the people that got your hopes up. Anyway, all of you drink free today because that was. That was insane.

[Jay]

Foolish.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, that's funny. I don't watch Strange Things, so I can't really contribute that. But it reminds me of when the final scene of the Sopranos, where everyone thought their power went out, right?

[Connor]

Yes.

[Matthew Berry]

Because no one knew what was going on.

[Connor]

That's right.

[Matthew Berry]

It's like, all right, guess. And then people literally. And back then, this Is like before Twitter, everyone thought their power had gone out.

[Connor]

That's right. And again, I don't want to ruin anything. I will merely say that, you know, the Sopranos ending had questions. Not everything in the Stranger Things universe gets wrapped up in. In a neat little bow. I'll just leave it at very generically. I'll just say a lot of stuff gets wrapped up, but not everything in the stranger Things universe gets wrapped up in a neat little bow. And so with these questions remaining out there, people started to just go nuts on the conspiracy theories. The one thing we do know, Connor, is that the Miami Dolphins need a head coach.

[Jay]

Yeah, the Mike McDaniel era did get a bow put on it. It's over after four seasons and obviously a little bit of a delay here. You get Black Monday, you get a lot of the firings, really, that morning. But this seems to be one situation where Steven Ross actually kind of sat on how the season ended for a couple days and released this statement. After careful evaluation and extensive discussion since the season and I've made the decision that our organization is in need of comprehensive change. I informed Mike McDaniel this morning that he has been relieved of his coaching, his duties as head coach. I love Mike and want to thank him for his hard work and commitment, the energy he brought to our organization, his incredibly creative football mind, his passion for the game and his players was evident every day. I wish him and his family the best moving forward. I guess the question to this guy is.

[Connor]

Yeah, Joe Philbin. Where you at, Joe Philbin?

[Matthew Berry]

Come on.

[Jay]

The delay gives the theory that maybe they didn't expect Harbaugh to be fired.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. If I were to put on my Hercule Poirot hat and deduce from the facts.

[Connor]

Do you have.

[Matthew Berry]

I don't have a Hercule Pyro hat. I don't have a Daniel Craig and knives out hat either. But it is very peculiar. Like, they had. They could have made this move on Monday. Right. But they didn't. And the fact that they didn't implies that the decision was made because of things that happened since Monday. It's not like they knew they found out on Sunday that they were going to miss the playoffs. Like, this season has really kind of followed a pretty consistent track the entire time. And so I would think that the availability of John harbor and here's like.

[Connor]

And others say it's. What's crazy to me is that the Dolphins had every possible reason to just tank this season, to just completely fold. They've had a bunch of injuries they lose Tyreek Hill. It was not a good season for Tua but they played hard. I don't think, I don't think to me again, I'm not a Dolphins fan and I'm curious your thoughts here guys. But I feel like the biggest culprit of the challenges that the Dolphins organization has had the last handful of years is Chris Greer. I just don't think that the roster was stocked with enough depth. I think they made a lot of mistakes. I don't think. I think the jury is still out as to whether or not Tua can be a franchise quarterback and so.

[Matthew Berry]

Well, he won't.

[Connor]

I'm trying to be.

[Jay]

I don't think he will trial over Miami.

[Lawrence]

Sure.

[Connor]

Well, no, he's definitely done in Miami. I'm just saying all I'm saying it's weird that they easily could have just kind of, you know, Raiders it out and just look like a disaster. But they played, they played tough down the stretch. They won a bunch of games, games they had no business winning. Games they were not favored in and destroyed the Bills. Right. And I just destroyed them. Like my point is that McDaniel hadn't lost the locker room. They were still playing really hard for them. And I thought he did a good job. I mean like his second best wide, his second best pass catcher was 34 year old Darren Waller who was retired last year. I mean you know, they just, they didn't have a lot of weapons in the stable.

[Matthew Berry]

Yep.

[Connor]

And I thought he did a good job, you know, with what he had.

[Jay]

There's a couple fantasy ways to look at this too. Wherever he goes as a head coach or offensive coordinator and some rumors are already heating up that would interest you Matthew. Maybe a connection to the commanders.

[Connor]

I'd be down with that.

[Jay]

Schematically he's one of the best offensive coaches in the entire sport. Like take away what you think of him at the podium or his hires on the defensive side of the ball. Schematically he's one of the best offensive coaches in the sport.

[Connor]

There's no question. And he's probably the best run game coordinator in the NFL in terms of designing a run game. And so I think this is a, I think it's a loss to Devon A. Chan's value.

[Jay]

I agree.

[Connor]

You know as somebody that has Devon Achan in Dynasty because who knows how.

[Lawrence]

Another coach sees that running back situation. Like we see it at as he's in every down back who's a top five rusher in yardage this past season. But maybe they See him like how they saw Achan his first couple seasons.

[Connor]

Yeah. And by the way, even if they, even if they say hey we think he's an every down back, are they going to design a run game and use him in the passing game as creatively as McDaniel did? Right. I mean like that's the other thing. It's, it's not just is he going to get the usage but how effective will the play calling be? You know and so, so yes, fantasy value down for I think until we see who the head coach is. It's definitely. It's a loss for Achan and I think probably a loss for Jalen Waddle.

[Jay]

As we said, this coincides with the firing of John Harbaugh after being the Ravens coach for 18 seasons. Or as the Ravens put it, 18 tremendous years. And guys we have tremendous, tremendous years. Tough, tough crop there. Listen, we have odds from draftkings these are always fun to keep an ey.

[Connor]

Yeah.

[Jay]

Where for the Ravens next coach?

[Connor]

Oh, the crown is ours.

[Jay]

Yes. Jesse Minter and Kevin Stefanski at the top of this list. Todd Monkin being 450 is kind of hilarious to me because a lot of the rumors out there is that Harbaugh went to bat to keep Monkin.

[Connor]

Yeah.

[Jay]

So I don't think Monkin is staying in this organization.

[Connor]

McCarthy at +500 is a little nutty.

[Matthew Berry]

Let's not do that.

[Lawrence]

I would have thought Clint Kubiak and Brian Flores would be a little higher. I agree with both of those guys are interviewing with the Ravens.

[Connor]

Flores to me is the really interesting one. To me that makes you know get a defensive minded head coach.

[Jay]

Right.

[Connor]

I mean that bring back. I mean that's Baltimore's always been known for their defense. Floors is great by all accounts. Players love him as well. Right. That's. I mean you're closer to this Connor than I am. But I've heard that like Flo is like a. Players love playing for him. Yeah.

[Jay]

If you're in his defense you're going to have the best year of your career. Typically with how he knows how to utilize everybody in terms of just relating.

[Connor]

To players as well. Because it does sound like when you read some of the behind the scenes stuff that maybe they didn't make this move without, you know, Lamar's approval or at least not disapproval. Like it feels like Lamar was, you know, Lamar didn't stand up and say please don't do this.

[Matthew Berry]

It doesn't sound like thing is too is with coaching really across all sports. It's just so Difficult to evaluate exactly your level of up to, particularly when it's someone like John harbor who doesn't have a specific side of the ball. But there are some coaches who we know are difference makers. We know Brian Flores is a difference maker. He always overachieves with his defense the same way that we know Kyle Shanahan is a difference maker with his offense. So I would think that Brian Flores, I understand that didn't end great in Miami, but at the same time his performance as a team in Miami, I.

[Lawrence]

Think the Miami thing was more of a him and TUA type, which aged well for him.

[Connor]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Lawrence]

And I think Brian Flores could, you know, bring that toughness that this Baltimore defense severely lacks. Even watching that Week 18 game before it came down to the final buzzer, you just watch. You say this Baltimore Ravens defense is not physical. Well, that will certainly change with a guy like Brian Flores. And when you already got the guy at quarterback short, the part of the team that actually needs it, like their two cornerbacks gave up the most yardage this season. So you need big help on that side of the ball.

[Connor]

I think it was surprising to a lot of people that Harbaugh was let go. I mean, this is somebody who again, like Tyler Loop makes a field goal. I think everyone thinks differently. Mark Andrews catches a two point conversion last year. I think people think differently.

[Lawrence]

I mean, I would say. I would say if the Ravens go to the playoffs and then they lose to the Texans, then we still sitting here in the same spot today.

[Connor]

Probably spend bubbling.

[Lawrence]

It would have had to been a deep playoff run.

[Connor]

I know the people feel like they've.

[Jay]

Underachieved Neck brace Nation. I always love when I see this avatar terrifying stuff. Harbaugh might take the year off. I don't think he will.

[Connor]

I don't think so either.

[Jay]

I think he. I think he's waiting to interview next week because he wants to see if.

[Lawrence]

Any more jobs open checking for them Bills.

[Matthew Berry]

Where would you want to go if you were Jon Harbaugh?

[Jay]

Does it have to be open today or this weekend? Could change things.

[Matthew Berry]

This weekend could change things. Bills.

[Connor]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Lawrence]

Cause like you talk about my son, Kimmy and you talk about a Bills team, if they take that loss and they make a change like Miami Bills, like, come on, what are you going to.

[Jay]

You have Josh Allen in his prime.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Lawrence]

And that's the team that has given the Ravens problems over the years. Like, yeah, give me Josh Allen.

[Jay]

Giants are a good spot for him.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. He seems to make so much sense for the Giants.

[Connor]

Yeah. I think that if you are a head coach in demand and you can choose, like, there's only 32 of those gigs out there. Right. But I think if you are a head coach and you can choose, it's all about the quarterback. I mean, the, you know, I mean, like now, his downfall, of course, he lasted 18 years, but his downfall was that they felt like he didn't get enough of Prime Lamar. Right. Which is fair. But the fact that you're going to go like, yes, if you've got a chance to coach Josh Allen, if you've got a coach, if you've got a chance to coach Jackson Dart, even if you have a chance to go to the Raiders where you have a number one pick and you're like, I'm going to get Fernando Mendoza, I'm going to get a franchise quarterback that I can develop, like, it's so much a better situation than what's Miami going to do at quarterback? I mean, like some coach going there.

[Jay]

Yeah.

[Connor]

I mean, but that's what it is. Kyler Murray. I mean, it's like. Because it's like you're sitting there with Quinn Ewers and Zach Wilson and so, you know, the teams that have an opening with a quarterback are much more. I'd make an argument that Tennessee might be a better situation than Miami as we sit here today, because at least.

[Lawrence]

I wouldn't argue that at all.

[Jay]

I like Cam Ward a lot.

[Lawrence]

You like Cam Ward knowing who you got right there, like just knowing that you have to put a better team around them. Yeah. I would take.

[Connor]

Think about Jacksonville last year. Like, you knew you had a quarterback, right. And you were able to get. Liam Cohen went there and said, I'm going to get the most out of Trevor Lawrence. And that's exactly what he did. And now they're in the playoffs. They're the three seed. So speaking of the playoffs.

[Jay]

Speaking of the playoffs, let's talk about the good teams right now in the NFL, the wild card weekend. Of course, we got plenty of previews here, but let's get into the Panthers Rams, which has the biggest spread of all of these games. We got to hear From Stafford and McVay reflecting on the last time they played against the Panthers when they lost.

[Connor]

I'd like not to throw it to their team. And, you know, I think that was the story of the game when you think about it. I mean, we moved the ball well in some areas, scored a couple, you know, in the red zone, did some nice things, ran it well and just had the Turnovers. And really, you look at their defense, that's what they've been able to do to a lot of teams. Big, big point of emphasis was the three turnovers. And they, you know, they didn't have any. They had some key and critical, you know, third and fourth downs. I thought they were able to run the ball and kind of control the clock, you know, and the possessions were limited, and so, you know, that. That was the big thing. But, you know, you give them respect. They. They made the plays and did the thing to be able to win the football game. And it's a good, humbling day for us, and we're excited about the challenge. Going against him again.

[Jay]

Evil grin, evil.

[Connor]

Grin at the end for those who are always listening. He was just like, we're excited about going against him again.

[Jay]

And held a smile and they'll be.

[Matthew Berry]

Playing the Eagles in Philly.

[Connor]

And then he. And then he. Then he licked his lips. Yeah, I'm making that up. He didn't do that. He licked his lips and he rubbed his hands together all the time and just stared into the camera like, while he coyote.

[Lawrence]

I mean, I'm sure that's what he did the first time in week 13. It was 10 point favorite favorites in that game as well.

[Connor]

Am I crazy to think the Panthers cover this? 10 and a half's a big number.

[Lawrence]

For a very good. Yeah, they could cover.

[Connor]

I'm asking Jay, not you. Plus one.

[Jay]

There's no point. You know, we're sitting out pickup lines.

[Lawrence]

Oh, yeah.

[Jay]

I'm not doing it. No.

[Matthew Berry]

I wouldn't be back in the Panthers.

[Connor]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

I'm not desperate to back the Rams minus 10.

[Connor]

No, I'm not. I'm not desperate to. I'm just saying, like, it's a lot of points. It's a lot of points for a game that's on the road against a team that beat them previously. I understand that that was a fluky game. The three turnovers they converted, two fourth downs. You know, they got to Stafford twice and they still needed to. They still only beat him by a field goal.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. The problem with the Panthers is they don't do anything well. So that's the problem of trying to beat the Rams. So you get three turnovers getting out of Stafford then. Maybe. But yeah, the Rams. The funny thing is, is they flip this around. This is saying basically that if the Rams are at home, there'd be 14 and a half point favorites in a playoff game.

[Jay]

I think it's a trap line. Yeah, I don't like. I wouldn't I wouldn't bet it.

[Connor]

No, I don't want to touch it at all. I'm gonna.

[Jay]

If the rams win by 17 points, you're like, oh, yeah.

[Connor]

No, no. 1,000%. Like, the Rams could blow them up by 25. Like, there's no.

[Matthew Berry]

Quite.

[Connor]

Like, by four touchdowns. That's not a shot. But. But I also just sort of feel like, I don't know. This smells like a backdoor cover. This smells like a lot of points. Ten and a half is a lot of points for a game that, again, is on the road. Carolina, like, it's a playoff game. I don't know, man.

[Matthew Berry]

Matthew Stafford has a bogey division he cannot beat The NFC south, recently imploded against the Falcons, imploded against the Panthers. I suspect he won't implode on Sunday.

[Lawrence]

And that's why we shouldn't feel like they just gonna come in here and roll these dudes over.

[Connor]

Like, I'm in the most insane playoff pool ever that's ever been created. And one. There's three steps. There's a bunch of three steps. It's a whole thing. I won't describe the whole thing. I won't finding Nemo it to you guys.

[Matthew Berry]

You can if you want.

[Connor]

Yeah, no, I'll just. But it's actually very clever. It's basically, there's three different steps that you have to do throughout each round of the playoffs up into the Super Bowl. And you pick fantasy points, you pick games against the spread, and then you do a survivor. Like what? You know, like, only one. I think, you know, you can only pick a team once, and it's an entire system that gives you points. And that point, by the end of the. When you get to the super bowl, everyone in the pool has a certain amount of points, and that translates to how many squares you get in a Super bowl square. Like, it's. It's the most insane. And I'm actually. I actually love it. The whole reason I bring that up is that one of the legs is that you have to confidence rank. You have to pick against the spread, and then you have to confidence rank them. Like, this is my number one. This is my number two. You get six points if you get first. Right on through. And the last. My last choice. My second last choice was Rams, Panthers.

[Matthew Berry]

What's your most confident spread?

[Connor]

My most confident. My most confident spread was the Chargers. I took your pickup line. Chargers plus three and a half. Wow. There you go.

[Matthew Berry]

I would take the Steelers plus three on Monday Night Football.

[Connor]

That was my second one. I think, I think I took that. But yeah, that one. Charles. The other one I don't have a great feel for is, you know, packers minus one. That's like a. Yeah, I think the.

[Matthew Berry]

Packers win, but who knows.

[Jay]

Poke up said Rico doing three pumps. This is the time.

[Connor]

Yeah. This is a Lawrence question.

[Lawrence]

You can do four pumps.

[Matthew Berry]

Really?

[Lawrence]

Yeah, you do.

[Jay]

I mean the fine probably won't change based on how many extra pumps you do.

[Connor]

Looks like Vinny says Panthers have zero business being in the playoffs. Going to be a JV team versus an NFL team.

[Matthew Berry]

It is pretty insane. The Detroit Lions are at home and the Detroit, they don't. They didn't earn their way in, but still. Yeah, the Panthers. There would be lots of teams who wouldn't be ten and a half point dogs at home against the Panthers.

[Lawrence]

Look, did it. Oh no, no, no. The Panthers did not beat the Seahawks. It was another good team they beat. Can't think of it off the top of my head that they had the Falcons debut. Your Falcons thought I said a good team.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Jay]

Jay, anything on the board catch your eye for notable player props in this game?

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, I think that Tetterone McMillan at 55 and a half, I would lean over over there just because I do think that the Rams will have explosive plays through the air, which means that the Panther. I don't think the Rams are necessarily going to be bleeding. 10 minutes o' clock and I think the Panthers were playing from behind. We saw what tmac, a national audience finally saw what TMAC could do against the Bucks and suspected as a 10 and a half point dog needing to throw. And Bryce had some success against the Rams last time. TMAC didn't do a great deal in that game. He got the one bum touchdown. But yeah, Tetterallo McMillan, he is the best chance the Panthers have in this game.

[Connor]

92 and a half is a really crazy high line for Puka Nokua and I would take the over. I would still take the over. It's Puka.

[Lawrence]

I'll just throw this out here. When the Rams played the panthers in week 13, Bryce Young was quarterback for Fantasy that week as a 10.5 point dog.

[Connor]

I mean as you sort of talk about playoff pools. We'll talk a little bit more about this in the next segment as well. But yeah, I mean you could certainly see negative game script in like he's been a game manager for much of the season but he's not going to be able to be that against the Rams. I mean he was 15 of 20 when they beat him but like again they're ten point dogs. They're going to have to throw.

[Matthew Berry]

The issue is with Bryce and I agree but in a lot of the games where like he has to throw, he just doesn't. They don't sustain drives. The Seahawks game, they were down the whole game and they got blown out late and it's like all right, where are the Bryce Young garbage time yards? There's never come kneeling at the clock down by two scores. So yeah, it's been a very strange season for the Panthers. It is bizarre that they are in the playoffs but we are here and Bryce Young has had flashes and Teddy Ronald McMillan's an elite wide receiver so who knows.

[Jay]

All right, next up the packers going to Chicago, the seventh seed Packers. This is a almost pick J I like this game. As you look at some of the notable draftkings prices for each players not surprised because of the volume to see Josh Jacobs at the top of the board there Matthew.

[Connor]

Yeah, I mean look, although volume at.

[Jay]

The end of the year with some injuries and get a little wonky at times.

[Connor]

He did but you know in games in which he does get a lot of work where he's seen at least 15 touches a season, you know he's averaging over 18 fantasy points per game. He scored an eight of 10 games on the road at Chicago. He's had a few weeks to heal up. This is their best chance. Like again, one of the tougher players in the NFL. I think Josh Jacobs gets a big workload here against Chicago and I think he's fairly successful. I like all the running backs in this game. If I was Chicago, I wouldn't let Caleb Williams throw it. Like I mean that defense since Micah Parsons has gone down is. I mean we saw what Derek Henry did to them. Right. I don't think it's a particularly strong run defense. I think the Bears have a very good offensive line. It's going to be cold in Chicago. I think I would just DeAndre Swift common on guy common on guy DeAndre Swift. I would just pound the hell out of it left and right if I was Chicago.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. What do you think of this packers defense now? Because so coming into the season before the Parsons trade the packers were like a trendy super bowl pick. The I understand the offense doesn't have to crop but I think we're that concerned about their offense. On defense it's still like still got an elite safety pairing. You've still got Adrian Cooper and Cole at linebacker. I understand there's no Parsons there But Lucas Van Ness is healthy. Sean Gary's there. The corners are a little suspicious.

[Jay]

The number one question for me is the corner play, right? And this is somebody in Ben Johnson that is he going to know how to scheme a couple touches to loot the Burden and DJ Moore and just Roma Dunes being on the field helps the usage of those guys. So that's the matchup that concerns, looking.

[Lawrence]

At that screen there on the board, luther burden at $4,600. So the Bears, these are all DraftKings.

[Connor]

Prices for DFS, by the way.

[Lawrence]

DraftKings prices, yes. So they played twice within two weeks, right? Week 14, week 16, that first matchup, Luther Burden led the Bears and receiving. So I do agree with you, Matthew and saying they should attack by running the ball like you literally just saw what Derrick Henry did to him. But we know Caleb Williams is going to throw somewhere around 20 to 25 passes, somewhere in that range, and we know he could break the pocket scramble. And Luther Burton is a guy, I think, who could pay off with that price of any of the Bears receivers.

[Connor]

Yeah, Manangai. Fun guy. Legacy game. Incoming. I like that. Logan Lee Pak, hard to tackle.

[Matthew Berry]

I think people have written off the Packers a little prematurely because Parsons went down and they're the seven seed. Like. Like they're literally favored on the road in this game. If they win this game, yeah, they'll be underdogs in Seattle, but I think they'll have the quarterback advantage. I feel better about Jordan Love than I do Sam Donald. And so, you know, anything can happen. This is a very open year.

[Connor]

There's no question about that. And that's my concern about the Seahawks just overall, is that just. We've seen Sam Darnold in these big games melt down.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. People, the chatter about Donald after the Niners game I thought was perplexing. It's like, oh, Donald wins the big games. Like, I don't think Sam Donald was a big part of them winning that game. His first drive, where he looks off, Charbonnet wide open in the flat to the end zone, is so rattled by that that he can't get them lined up and have to call time out. Donald, he made some throws in the second half. He's very shaky, but he.

[Lawrence]

He didn't. He didn't lose it like when he was at the end of his Vikings career. So I think that's kind of what they compare.

[Connor]

They're grading him on a curve. He wasn't. He wasn't. He wasn't an unmitigated disaster. The way he has been in other big leagues.

[Matthew Berry]

The thing is it's like it's really hard to actively lose a game against the Niners defense. Like it's just really hard. Phil Rivers torched them. Caleb Williams put up like you have.

[Lawrence]

Like the Last shootout game versus the Rams 38 to 37 to withstand Matthew Stafford going eight like just going crazy and to still come out and win that game with Sam Donner as you corner.

[Matthew Berry]

You had some great throws on that final drive.

[Connor]

I will also say Colson Loveland if you're going to punt at tight end 4400 is kind of interesting. Since week nine he's the fourth best tight end in fantasy football.

[Jay]

So the prop board for this one. I have a feeling the passing will be pretty similar and there it is right there. Although Jordan Love because of the deep throwing with the higher number in this game.

[Connor]

Give me Luther Burton over here. I know dunes back.

[Jay]

I think that would be the play just because he can do that in two plays with his ability after the catch. Christian Watson primed for what you think would be a big game or at least the value play at the draft kings prices.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah I think Jordan Love as well over 222.5. We forget because he got hurt but he was looking great to start that game against the Bears. He was coming off a really hot stretch going into that game as well before he suffered the concussion. And like secret about the Bears is their defense isn't very good at all. Brock Purdy did whatever he wanted against them despite losing Trent Williams on the first play of the game.

[Connor]

No team allows a higher completion percentage on deep passes 15 yards or more downfield than the Chicago Bears. So I do think, I think to your point about Christian Watson that feels like a low number for me to Christian Watson especially because he's healthy and he's been the focal point of this passing attack since he's come back.

[Jay]

Alright, going over to the AFC side guys. This one the highest point total of the entire slate. The Bills going to Jacksonville. Of course you'd have to pay a monster number for that Bill Stack right there. Matthew between James Cook and Josh Allen.

[Connor]

Yeah and I don't want it to be honest with you. I think it's going to be a popular stack and I don't and I'm not sure it's one that's going to pay off. I think they're going to try to run the ball quite a bit with James Cook. Jaguars have a really good defense. I would rather if I was doing A stack in this game. I think I'd rather. I'd rather do it in the. On the Jaguar side and then maybe come back with a. With a. With a James Cook or something like that. But I think. I think ETN has a. ETN has a big game here. I think they run him a ton. There has been a quarterback hotter in. In fantasy football then. Then Trevor Lawrence. You know, he's the best quarterback in Fantasy since week five. Since week five is averaging over 22 fantasy points per game. How about Parker Washington? 21 fantasy points over the last three weeks as well. It's not like the. The Bills are great against slot receivers as well. So I. There's a bunch of different ways you could go with a Jaguar stack, but to me, that's more interesting in this game. I will say this. Lawrence and Connor, I took the under in this game when we did early line alert earlier in the week because. What is it? 51 and a half? 52 and a half.

[Jay]

51 when you took it, it was 52 and a half.

[Connor]

It was 52 and a half. So. Right. I moved the markets. Everyone knows. Yeah. Put it out on. Put it out on Social and next.

[Jay]

Thing you know, what was the threads.

[Lawrence]

Yeah. On threads.

[Connor]

Yeah, all the Sharps. All the Sharps now coming in on.

[Matthew Berry]

The under monitor threads.

[Connor]

Yeah, exactly. They monitor my threads. Yeah.

[Lawrence]

I could see under. Especially from the bill side of things, if they can't get James Cook going because this, this season, the passing game has been able to get going. After you get the run game going, you look at their. Some of their last few games, you get 12 points versus the Eagles. You barely beat the Cleveland Browns.

[Matthew Berry]

You.

[Lawrence]

You struggled there. So their offense, you. You got to see that run game get going so it could open it up for Josh Allen to do his thing.

[Jay]

Ryan Oswald says the Traveler, Parker Washington all day. Yeah, I can get behind that.

[Connor]

It's been a stack that's been working along. I mean, just how do you see these guys going against this defense? This bill's off. I mean, the reason I took the under is I think the Jaguars have an underrated defense. The game's in Jacksonville, and I think both teams will try to go run heavy, which limits possessions. And so assuming there's not a pick six or a fumble, you know, some sort of quick score like that, I just, just this one doesn't feel like a shootout to me.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. Looking at these prop markets, I would lean under on James Cook, 79. The Jags have the best rush defense in the NFL.

[Lawrence]

For that.

[Jay]

But they do.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. And I think that if you're constructing a story of success for the Bills in this game in terms of stacks, in terms of same game parlays, it would be that the Josh Allen is able to do it through the air. Because this Jags pass defense, I think the jury is a little bit out still on them. They're not as nearly as, as imposing against the pass as they are against the run. And so they just haven't played a lot of super explosive offenses while they've gone on this eight game win streak. Like the two best teams they played in that time were Bonix and the Broncos. And Bonix was horrific in that game. And then the charges were Justin Herbert. Just before the charges hit, the Bayern Chargers scored six points. They just never really fired a shot. But I think that there is a world where Josh Allen can just move the ball through the air and that that's more likely than James Cook gashing though. Jack.

[Connor]

Yeah, if you want to stack him with Shakir and like Dalton Kincaid.

[Lawrence]

What about Brandon Cooks? Brandon Cooks, he made some big catches versus the Eagles.

[Connor]

He definitely did that.

[Lawrence]

Like, like is that receiver for the Bills? Is one of those receivers going to make those type of plays? I think that'll be the difference in this game and that's why I would lean under two. And a question for everybody here. Where was Brian Thomas on that list? The over underserves? I didn't see him.

[Matthew Berry]

He. He doesn't make it these days.

[Lawrence]

Khalil Shakir was at 44 and a half.

[Connor]

Right. I thought, I thought to me the most interesting bet there was Travis Etienne at like I think it was 62 and a half over. I would take the over I like.

[Jay]

Again a lot this week.

[Connor]

Yeah, I don't think the Bills have a very good run defense and I think that's what they're going to want to do is like you know, if Josh Allen isn't on the field, Josh Allen can't hurt him.

[Matthew Berry]

42 and a half for Brian Thomas.

[Connor]

Yeah. Wow.

[Matthew Berry]

South affairs again. It's not a particularly frightening, but I'd.

[Connor]

Probably take the under if I had to bet that that's not a line I feel great about. No.

[Jay]

The Bills are good on the back end as much as we clown their run defense a lot. They vary up their coverages. They're very reliable on the back end.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Jay]

It's not a great matchup for btj but Parker Washington and Jacoby Myers seem to get theirs. All right, let's go to Eagles 49ers, 49ers. Four and a half point. This line's actually been moving a little bit away from the Niners. Obviously, a lot of faith in backing the Eagles and this one. But Christian McCaffrey, of course, Matthew, he's going to be one of the most expensive players for daily prizes.

[Connor]

There's no question about it. I mean, look, the argument here is like, well, you know, Eagles have a good run defense and everything like that. A good defense just in general. But, you know, if you're on the road, you're going with Christian McCaffrey here. Like, Christian McCaffrey is going to touch the ball 25 times this game.

[Lawrence]

At least he has to, right?

[Matthew Berry]

Exactly.

[Connor]

That's their only chance. And by the way, they're four and a half point underdogs here, so. So I do think if you're going to pay up for one. To me, the two superstars that I would be willing to pay up this weekend are Puka nakua and Chris McCaffrey.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, there's no doubt that McCaffrey is going to get the workload. And he doesn't even need to be particularly efficient. He was still, what, the number one player in fantasy despite averaging 3.9 yards per carry. And it might be ugly against the Eagles, but they might not have any other pathway because it doesn't look that optimistic for Trent Williams and Ricky Pearsall. That is why the line has drifted further out in the Eagles favour. So, yeah, McCaffrey, as he has been all year, will be there. Alfred Omega.

[Connor]

I think Kittle is interesting in this game as well. Obviously always has a big connection with Brock Purdy. I feel like that's one of the few weaknesses of the Eagles. They don't, you know, they don't defend the tight end nearly as well as they do perimeter wide receivers as well. And as Berkson Flannels says, angry CMC after that last game.

[Matthew Berry]

It's quite an avatar.

[Connor]

Yeah, it is quite an avatar. I wonder if. Yeah.

[Lawrence]

Is that the. What's her name?

[Connor]

That's Velmado. I believe that's Velma from Scooby Doo.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, there you go.

[Connor]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

Angry cmc. Yeah. Unfortunately, I'm not sure anger is going to crack her up.

[Lawrence]

Yeah, it won't matter too much, but if they don't have Trey Richardson, he's angry.

[Connor]

He's.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Lawrence]

With seven, eight catches with Brock Purdy.

[Connor]

Under center this year, George kittle has a 24% target share, averaging over 16 fantasy points per game, 67 receiving yards a game. I do think Kittle has a big game here. My question is, do you think the Eagles can get Saquon Barkley going in this one? Their offensive line is getting healthier. Right.

[Jay]

And this is the game to do it. Because San Francisco, they're just. Not only have they run out of people, you can run the ball against them. They just lost Tatum Bethune, who was the standout rookie linebacker, already filling in for their injured linebacker.

[Lawrence]

Right? They running on fumes.

[Jay]

Yeah, they're running.

[Connor]

Yeah.

[Jay]

So Saquon, and that's why his prop is set all the way and it's still at 81 and a half.

[Connor]

Lawrence.

[Lawrence]

The good thing for Saquon BARKLEY, at least 17 fantasy points in three of his last four games. Two runs of more than 45 yards in his last four games. In it weeks one through 13, he only had one run of 20 plus yards. So they've gotten him going slowly but surely. And like, like you said, Connor, if there ever be a week, this be that week right here versus these 49ers.

[Connor]

I think if I had to take a. If I had to take a line on Jalen hurts passing him. I think take the under. It feels like here in the playoffs, I think he starts becoming running Jalen again. I think they start using his legs.

[Matthew Berry]

And I hope so.

[Connor]

They need to.

[Lawrence]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Connor]

They had almost 200 yards rushing in.

[Lawrence]

The playoffs last year and they had started. They had started doing that the past few games. Prior to the game against the Bills, he had run for 39 and 40 yards. So they're starting to get that going now.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. With the Niners run defense, I think there's this idea that Seattle has a good run game because they run it a lot. And it's Ken Walker and Charbonnet gets in the end zone a lot. The Seahawks have not been efficient on the ground at all this year. They use it. Their offense is effective because of the play action. They run off of the run game, the explosives to Jackson, Smith and Jigba. Even with that, they did whatever they wanted on the ground against the Niners. At one point they were averaging like 8 yards on the ground. It's like, Jesus, is there anything.

[Connor]

Ken Watson never looked better.

[Matthew Berry]

They took on his point. They just. They don't have the bodies left at all, but they're going down. It's just like adds further insult to injury.

[Jay]

I don't think the Eagles try to get cute in this game and just start airing it out all of a sudden. Just lean on Saquon like you Said maybe hurts, gets going in the ground game a little bit. We'll be interesting to see how that plays.

[Connor]

I hope the Niners win this game. I don't think they're going to.

[Jay]

Do you think if the Niners do win this game that Sirianni, potentially there's some noise around him? No, I don't think so either, but there's been a lot of chatter.

[Matthew Berry]

I think they've got New York City.

[Connor]

He just seen.

[Lawrence]

Is he that guy that. It just seemed like that every year on the Internet, like, tell himself, like, he literally got to win the super bowl because that was it. Because Marion's like, man, if he can't get through this NFC Championship, Philadelphia fans.

[Connor]

Are, you know, passionate.

[Jay]

They hold a high standard.

[Connor]

They hold a high standard. Sirianni, and he hasn't helped. Sirianni hasn't helped himself.

[Matthew Berry]

But Sirianni, another guy, I have no idea if he's a good coach. No idea.

[Jay]

He's at least good.

[Lawrence]

I think he's a good coach.

[Jay]

When you win a Super bowl, the question is, are you a great coach? Yeah, he's a good coach.

[Lawrence]

Yeah.

[Jay]

The Eagles have all this talent. How he's great, I get it. But, like, the man at some point.

[Connor]

Is a good coach.

[Jay]

I don't know if he's a great coach.

[Lawrence]

He's a good coach. This is how, you know, right? Yes, they got the talent. You take a team with the Falcon, like the Falcons, who don't really have that much talent, but they got talent enough to where they should be, winning the NFC south, but they didn't. So, you know, you got the coach.

[Connor]

The argument is, is that if you put Nick Sirianni on the Falcons, is the outcome that much different? But by the way, if you put Raheem Morris on the Eagles, do they win the Super Bowl?

[Matthew Berry]

Like, I don't think this much either way. But the thing is, my point, the reason why I posed the question, is that past four years, okay, the offense has been great. Two of those years. Those are the years they had Shane Steichen and Kellen Moore, who we all agree are good ocs in between. Sirianni is an offensive coach. That's his side of the ball. Not good. Not good without those two guys. So. And the offense this year has just been.

[Connor]

It's just.

[Matthew Berry]

It's been very ugly.

[Connor]

Fangio's done a great job on the defensive side of the ball, but. But Pangeo's a legendary D.C. that's, you know, been around forever, but to his.

[Jay]

Credit, a huge job of being the head coach that nobody ever gives them credit for is who you hire.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, that's for sure.

[Jay]

So, like, I get it. I really do.

[Connor]

That's very fair.

[Jay]

Aaron Glenn hired Steve Wilkes. Yeah, right.

[Lawrence]

Like.

[Jay]

And, like, all we do is Mr.

[Matthew Berry]

Allen also hired Kevin Petullo, which doesn't seem to have worked out.

[Lawrence]

But he's gonna get. He's gonna get Mulligan because of Ryan Johnson. Right. He gonna get a new guy every year. Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. So next year is due to hit because he hits.

[Connor]

Watch him hire Cliff.

[Jay]

All right, our last weekend game here, because, of course, the Texans and Steelers are on Monday night. And this is our game, guys.

[Matthew Berry]

Of course.

[Jay]

On NBC. Chargers, Patriots. Mike Vrabel. A lot of praise for Justin Herbert this year. He's got toughness, great arm talent, great athletic ability.

[Connor]

You know, he's under duress.

[Lawrence]

I mean, and it doesn't really affect him.

[Connor]

You don't see him get frustrated. A lot of respect for him as a.

[Jay]

As a person and obviously as a player.

[Connor]

And he's lived up to everything that they thought he'd be as a franchise quarterback, and he's really just one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

[Jay]

So we look at the prices here. Drake may at the top of the board. The potential mvp, Stefan Diggs, though, after him, Marion Hampton. I think Matthew would be priced higher if he wasn't a little banged up.

[Connor]

Yeah, he is. He missed practice the other day as well. But to your point, I mean, patriots giving up 131 rushing yards a game since week 10. You can run on New England. And even with the. Yes, I get it. Their offensive line is not great, but Hampton has looked really good when he's been healthy. So the question is how healthy? We'll get a better sense of that on Sunday, especially when you tune into Football Night in America on NBC Sports and Peacock before the Chargers Patriots game, which is on our air. It's a big one here. I do think if you're playing DraftKings, if you're playing DFS, the Patriots defense is pretty interesting. Obviously, it's a home game, and Justin Herbert just takes a lot of sacks. It's not all his fault because of that line, but, like, it just feels like this is an opportunity for the Patriots defense.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, it should be. The issue is, is the Patriots defense this year, despite playing the easiest schedule in the league, hasn't been that imposing. And particularly against the run, they've been really weak in recent weeks. So they've had teams run all over them. Think Everyone was upset that Derrick Henry didn't come back into the game against the Pats because Derek Henry was lighting up the Pats. And it's not just Derrick Henry that's.

[Lawrence]

Part of the reason. Well, never mind. We talked about that earlier.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, but I think that if Hampton does play it is somewhat of a favorable matchup because the Pat's run day has been so suspect.

[Jay]

All right, let's go to real quick on Texan Steelers. I want to show the prop board but our more in depth preview is going to be on our Monday show. We're not going to spend a lot of time right now because we'll be back on Monday breaking this game down. But just to show you guys the prices, Nico Collins priced almost a superstar level value here, Matthew.

[Connor]

Yeah, I mean listen, I get it right. I mean he's the focal point of that passing attack. Steelers secondary has not been terrific this year as well. So I do think Nico Collins has the chance of getting the most work here in this game. From a fantasy football perspective, since week 11 Kenneth Gainwell's got an almost 20% target share. When you think about how good the defensive line of Houston is, I think they're going to get after Rodgers in a big way. So I think Kenneth Gainwell has a big PPR cheat code kind of day. Just a bunch of dump offs.

[Jay]

The Houston, the Chargers and Patriots quest for the Lombardi Trophy begins Sunday night in Foxborough. Coverage begins at 7:30 with football night in America as we lead you up to kickoff in New England only on NBC and Peacock taking our first break when we're back or to come. Including Matthews Top 10 positional rankings for the playoffs right after this.

[Connor]

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[Jay]

Ben Johnson, of course his offense expected to maybe play a big part in this playoffs. But we're looking at your playoff rankings here, Matthew and Matthew Stafford, the number one quarterback. But of course this comes with a caveat because bye weeks matter a lot for playoff fantasy rankings.

[Connor]

Yeah, I mean listen, there's a lot of different ways to play play a fantasy football. Some. Some you're dealing with on a week to Week basis. Some you're just sort of, you have to pick a lineup and you can only pick one player from each team. So there's, you know, whether there's those drafts, there's sort of salary cap. If you want to do a guillotine league on guillotineleagues.com we're doing guillotinis, which are five or eight man teams, same way that you play guillotine leagues except there's no bench and after each round one or two teams get chopped depending on your whether you're a five or eight team league. So it all depends. Right. Sort of what kind of statute here. But you have to sort of the way it sort of works is you have to sort of think, think through how do you view the playoffs going out. You have to kind of make a call there. And so it's about number of games played. We think the Rams go deep in the playoffs. They're the second favorite to play in the Super Bowl. They're, you know, in the nfc. So but because they don't have a buy in theory they should have better odds to make it further than the Seahawks. From a fantasy football perspective, right. We there's a better chance that Stafford plays the most games than Sam Darnold as well. So Stafford, who obviously multiple touchdown passes in 15 to 17 games this year, you know, second highest odds to make the super bowl here. Obviously you love the matchup against the Carolina Panthers. Don't love it. He has to go, you know, to Philadelphia in round two.

[Matthew Berry]

But you could live with it.

[Connor]

But you could live with it also.

[Matthew Berry]

It could be Seattle, could be Philadelphia. Oh, sorry. It could be Chicago. Like they're just different matchups that are for sure.

[Connor]

But you know, obviously. So I have Stafford at 1, Allen at at 2, May at 3, the Trevor there in 5. So I mean one of those guys is going to move on whether it's Josh Allen or Trevor Lawrence. And you see it there, Sam Darnold at 10 because you know, again, he's going to miss at least one game. And obviously, as I've said, Sam Darnold's not my. I don't think the Seahawks make the Super Bowl.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, also plausible that the rams in round two could be hosting the 49ers. But yeah, the main thing is that Stafford is an 85 chance to get out of round one according to the market, whereas the guys directly beneath him, like Josh Allen is a 50 chance to just get eliminated by the Jags. Drake May is favored, but he's more like a 60 to 65% favorite. So just Stafford's likelihood of playing the most games. And also the guy threw 46 touchdown passes and led the out of our passing yard. So. So yeah, I think he's the clear number one.

[Jay]

I like this comment from Mick. Genuine. I've never done well with playoff leagues. I always get the wrong players.

[Connor]

Yeah, well, pick the good ones, Mick. That's in fact maybe one piece of advice. It's like get the right players.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Connor]

Pick the good players, stop picking the bad ones.

[Matthew Berry]

Pick an Elijah Arroyo, Jackson junior.

[Jay]

Let's try to find some of the right running backs through Matthews. Top 10 here.

[Connor]

Lawrence Drake. May has a good, you know, playoff run.

[Jay]

What name on this board do you think might have some sneaky value?

[Lawrence]

Well, I thought Josh Allen and I talking about the quarterbacks previously. So I would say James Cook. If the Bills could get out of this game, then they could go. I think this Jaguars team is a real challenge for this Bills offense. But if you could get out of this wild card round with the Bills, right. So you'll still have James Cook and hopefully somehow avoid the Houston Texans because they'll get after you. The Bills should be able to beat anybody despite their bad run defense. So I would like James Cook going here. The NFL's leading rusher.

[Connor]

Yeah, I mean, so Kyron Williams had won, obviously. Same argument with Stafford again. They did second best super bowl odds, but they're playing this weekend, whereas the, you know, the Broncos and Seahawks are not. But since week nine, Etienne's been a top ten fantasy running back. He's averaging over 18 touches per game. He has the. He's tied for the fourth most red zone touches this season. They use him a lot. They use him when they get in close. I like the matchup against Buffalo here. Obviously they need to get out of this round, but I think the Jaguars have a better chance than people are giving them against Buffalo.

[Lawrence]

I think so, too. I think so too. That's why when I say James Cook, it's like, hey, Bill's gotta win this game. Like I. If I'm a Bills fan, I'm worried about this Jaguars team than I am the Patriots, the Broncos. I think he could handle the Broncos. They did last year in the playoffs. Better Broncos team now. But I feel better about the Bills versus a lot of other teams in the AFC as opposed to these Jaguars.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, a little niche, but the way that the market treats these. Every team has a rating, right? So the Rams are rated about 7 points better than your average team. They're rated the best team in football.

[Connor]

Football.

[Matthew Berry]

The Steelers are rated. It's like a dead average team. Their rating is like zero. I think as we go through the playoffs the team that has the most scope to improve their rating and how the market treats them is Jacksonville. I think this team has a ton of variance because they have been just about the best team in football over the past two months, but they haven't played a ton of teams. If the Jags beat the Bills and do it emphatically, all of a sudden it's like all right, Jags are rated the best team in the afc. This team is, you know, probably the favorite to get out of the AFC at that point.

[Jay]

Go to the wide receivers. Jacksonville of course has three different notable wide receivers as you see two of them down the board in Jacoby Myers and Parker Washington. But Matthew, how about Devonte Adams? Finally healthy. We just know the absolute touchdown merchant that he is.

[Connor]

Again, we keep talking about the Rams but it's because we think they, they got a really good shot at the super bowl and they're going to play the most games. So Puka at 1, Devonte Adams at 3. Multiple end zone targets each of the last five games. Games he played over his last eight games, 11 receiving targets. He's touchdown dependent but he's got as good a chance at scoring as any wide receiver in the foot in the NFL because Stafford looks for when he gets closer. We think Stafford, especially against Carolina is going to want to pad his stats.

[Jay]

All right guys, let's close out with tighter Washington making.

[Connor]

Making sneaking in there, sneaking in there. Nico Collins at 5.

[Lawrence]

Once again I don't see Brian Thomas.

[Connor]

Jr. Yeah, you like the Steelers to cover. You don't think the Steelers win though, do you?

[Matthew Berry]

I think it's a coin flip game really.

[Lawrence]

I think they could win.

[Matthew Berry]

I think that C.J. stroud is very shaky when he's under pressure and I think with what in that defensive line on Texans on the road. I think Stroud will be under pressure and I wouldn't feel great about that. And also what's the Texans strength as they get after the quarterback with Anderson and Hunter and co Rodgers gets the ball out faster than anyone anyway exists in a world.

[Lawrence]

Yeah.

[Connor]

I mean it'll be a problem. They get through and he's not so I mean I just keep thinking of.

[Jay]

The Browns Browns game.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Jay]

Where he was like I'm not going to be the Miles Garrett sack record. And then I picture two Texans edge rushers and he's just throwing it three yards at a time.

[Lawrence]

Yeah, I do think it won't work against the Texans.

[Jay]

That's what I'm saying.

[Lawrence]

Much better defensive backfield on the Texas than he just saw with the Ravens.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. Well I do think though that DK Metcalf is a big difference everyone. Definitely the first time that Rogers played the Browns he was much better with DK there.

[Connor]

So yeah, and we talked about Gainwell in the previous segment as well. But I do think a lot of dump offs coming for Kenneth Gainwell.

[Jay]

Finally, the tight ends. How about Brenton Strange? How about Brent Strange making this board? You know George Kittle on Dallas Goddard? Nothing surprises you there but Breton Strange. Once again it goes back to Jay's point, Matthew. There's a world where Jacksonville runs this thing all the way to the super bowl where he would hold a totally different value.

[Connor]

There's no question. Five straight games with at least one red zone target. He's been a top 10 tight end on a points per game basis since he came back from IR in week number 12. There's not a lot at the tight end position if you've heard that before. So I do think as you're doing, if you're doing a draft, reaching for Kittle is fine. Again, you have to feel good about the Niners chances of beating Philadelphia. We think the Eagles win, but it's a football game. Anything can happen. But that's why just because there's not a lot there at the tight end position, you to have to think like Kittle's so talented and there's a chance that he could play multiple games.

[Lawrence]

Which is why I would like a guy like Dallas Goddard, the guy who leads the Eagles in receiving touchdowns on A team with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith. 11 Touchdowns Receptions this year. They get him the ball at the goal line, they'll throw him a jet sweep just to get the cheap touchdown in there sometimes. So Dallas got it. And again, I actually think the Eagles will be in the super bowl again. So he was. He's the type of tight end that I would target.

[Jay]

The countdown is on to NBA All Star Weekend. Vote daily with your NBA ID to help shape the US vs World All Star rosters in the NBA app. Every vote gives you a chance to win a free trip to NBA All Star 2026. Catch the action February 13th through the 15th on NBC and streaming on Peacock. We're taking one more break, one more back. A very special wild weekend edition of Pickup Lines right after this.

[Connor]

Looking for a smarter way to watch the big game. Sling has launched a game changing way to stream live TV with passes instead of committing to a monthly plan you might not use. Passes gives instant access for just a day, a week or a weekend with a day pass. Non stop College Football is available for 24 hours for only $4.99. ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC games simulcast on ESPN3 are included. And for just one more dollar you can add SEC or ACC networks. Sling puts fans in charge with total flexibility and control. Watch what's wanted when it's wanted. Best of all, you don't need to remember to cancel when your access is up. You won't be charged again until you purchase another day pass. Passes are only available for orange subscription packages. Visit sling.com to learn more. Traditions have the power to bring a whole city together. Tabitha's Tailgate in the pouring rain or refuse to wash that lucky jersey and tradition is what inspires Tostitos to make their masa the traditional way, starting with whole corn kernels and made with no artificial flavors, colors or preservatives crafted for that perfect crunch. Anytime I'm watching football on Sunday, I look around and there's always somebody eating Tostitos. Whether you're at the tailgate or home watching with friends, choose Tostitos for your next game day. Tostitos Tradition matters Official Chip and Dip sponsor of the NFL before we had ATT Business Wireless coverage, our delivery GPS wasn't the most reliable. Once our driver had to do a 14 point turn to get back on route. A 14 point turn, an influencer even livestream the whole thing. Not good for business. Now with AT and T Business Wireless, routes are updating on the fly and deliveries are on time. And the influencer did get us 53 new followers though. AT&T business Wireless Connecting changes everything.

[Jay]

DraftKings Sportsbook is an official sports betting partner of the NFL and new customers can bet $5 and get $300 in bonus bets. If your bet wins, download the app and use promo code ffhh when you sign up. DraftKings sportsbook all the crackdowns. Last call.

[Connor]

Pick up lines as we take a.

[Jay]

Look at the board. The spreads, the total. Jay, what do you got for Matthew?

[Matthew Berry]

Okay, I'm going. SAQUON BARKLEY Over 18 and a half rushing attack top winner, winner, winner. Come on. He's gone 20, 22, 21, 19 his past four games over in four straight. And here's the thing. When the Seahawks played the Niners last week, Niners being Phillies, how many times the Seahawks run the ball 39 times. Saquon gets the 19 carries. All right.

[Jay]

Lawrence, what about you?

[Connor]

It is a good bet though. That's the problem.

[Jay]

We'll see. Who am I to judge?

[Lawrence]

Yeah, I'll tell you Monday. When you talk about these plus money bets, you act like I'm Shaquille o' Neal shooting from the three point line. Just a bunch of air ball. Look. Brock Purdy, 20 rushing yards. SAP. Plus 107. That's not some. It's not like it's plus 250. Right? And he's at least done it in three out of his last four games. He's scrambling, Brock right now. He's been running and if he don't get Trenton Williams back, he's going to be doing a lot more of that versus this Eagles front. So give me Brock Purdy, 20 rushing yards at plus 107. Done it three of his last four games.

[Jay]

Alright, give me Ramandre Stevenson over 13 and a half receiving yards. He's done this in his last five. He's smashed this out of the park in his last five, six of his last seven. They are throwing the ball a lot to Ramandre Stevenson effectively. And this game will be close enough that they have to.

[Connor]

Yeah, I like all those bets actually. But you know. You know what, Connor? No, no, no. I don't want it.

[Jay]

I don't want it.

[Connor]

I don't want it.

[Jay]

I don't want you to.

[Connor]

Then I'll go home with. I'm going home with Lawrence. Screw you guys. Hey. All right. We're back on Monday. Good luck with your bets. For Jay Connor Lawrence, I'm Matthew. Peace out.

[Matthew Berry]

Olivia loves a challenge.

[Connor]

It's why she lifts heavy weights and likes complicated recipes. But for booking her trip to Paris, Olivia chose the easy way. With Expedia, she bundled her flight with a hotel to save more. Of course, she still climbed all 674 steps to the top of the Eiffel Tower. You were made to take the easy route. We were made to easily package your trip. Expedia. Made to travel flight inclusive packages are atoll protected.