Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry

Episode: Wild Card Weekend Preview, Prop Bets + Playoff Positional Rankings
Date: January 8, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode revolves around two key themes:

• Previewing Wild Card Weekend: Deep strategic discussion and analysis of matchups, fantasy-relevant players, bettable lines, and team outlooks for each playoff game.
• Playoff-Specific Rankings and Strategy: Matthew Berry’s rankings, playoff fantasy league strategy, and value judgments on trending and controversial players.

The panel—Matthew Berry, Jay, Connor, and Lawrence—is back together with their signature banter, focusing entirely on playoff football and player outlooks, with actionable fantasy and betting advice.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

Coaching Changes and Fantasy Fallout

• Mike McDaniel Fired by Dolphins ([05:11]):

  • Panel discusses the delayed timing of McDaniel’s firing and speculates on potential replacements, notably John Harbaugh. Jay remarks, “Schematically he's one of the best offensive coaches in the entire sport” (08:12), while Connor underscores the impact: “I think it's a loss to Devon A. Chan's value” (08:32).
  • Fantasy Implications: Downgrade for Dolphins skill position players, especially Devon Achane and possibly Jalen Waddle, until a new coach is named.

• John Harbaugh Released from Ravens ([09:20]):

  • Jay notes, “Flores to me is the really interesting one. … get a defensive minded head coach.” (10:15)
  • Panel debates candidates and the importance of quarterback situations for incoming coaches.
  • Team Improvement Narrative: Jay argues, “...if you are a head coach in demand … it’s all about the quarterback.” (13:28)

Wild Card Matchups: Game Breakdowns, Prop Bets, and Fantasy Leans

Panthers @ Rams ([14:51])

• Outlook: Rams are 10.5-point favorites, but skepticism abounds. Matthew: “The problem with the Panthers is they don’t do anything well.” (16:51)
  • Key Fantasy Players:
    • Rams: Stafford, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua
    • Panthers: Tetterallo McMillan (“he is the best chance the Panthers have in this game” – Matthew, 20:17)
  • Notable Stat: Rams might be theoretical 14.5-point favorites at home (17:10), highlighting perceived mismatch.

Packers @ Bears ([21:57])

• DFS & Prop Breakdown:
  • Bears’ Luther Burden highlighted for value in DFS (Lawrence, 23:39).
  • Josh Jacobs expected to carry the load for the Packers (Connor, 22:17).
  • QB edge to Packers’ Jordan Love (“I feel better about Jordan Love than I do Sam Donald…” – Matthew, 24:28)
  • Both teams expected to lean on the run; passing props focus on explosive, after-the-catch wideouts (26:09).

Bills @ Jaguars ([27:00])

• Stacking & Fade Recommendations: Connor prefers Jaguars stacks, notably Travis Etienne and Parker Washington: “ETN has a big game here. They run him a ton.” (27:57)
• Sharp Money and Unders: “I took the under in this game… It just doesn’t feel like a shootout to me.” (28:16)
• Key Props: Matthew says, “I would lean under on James Cook, 79. The Jags have the best rush defense in the NFL.” (29:35)

Eagles @ 49ers ([31:32])

• High-End Markers: McCaffrey a safe high-volume daily play: “Christian McCaffrey is going to touch the ball 25 times this game.” (32:10)
• George Kittle seen as key fantasy option against Eagles’ suspect TE defense: “Kittle has a big game here.” (33:35)
• Eagles seek to establish run game with Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts. Jay: “This is the game to do it. …you can run the ball against them.” (34:03)

Chargers @ Patriots ([38:16])

• Highlighting Injury Risk: Hampton if healthy is a strong play vs NE’s weak run defense. “If Hampton does play, it is a favorable matchup…” (40:10)
• Patriots defense a DFS option due to Herbert’s sack risk.

Texans @ Steelers (briefly teased, full preview coming Monday) ([40:17])

• Nico Collins as top option: “He’s the focal point of that passing attack…” (40:35)
• Kenneth Gainwell called a sneaky PPR play for Steelers due to likely dump-offs (40:35, 51:23).

Playoff Positional Rankings & Strategies ([44:34])

Quarterbacks

• Stafford as Playoff QB1: “Stafford… second highest odds to make the Super Bowl. …Better chance that Stafford plays the most games.” (44:34, 46:28)
• Strategic Note: Playoff formats reward QBs who can compile stats over multiple games (46:05).

Running Backs

• Kyren Williams as RB1: Reiterated as playoff workhorse due to Rams’ odds and usage trend (48:02).
• “If you could get out of this wild card round with the Bills… you’ll still have James Cook and hopefully somehow avoid the Houston Texans…” (47:23)
• Etienne: Jaguars have “better chances than people are giving them against Buffalo.” (48:34)

Wide Receivers

• Puka Nacua at the top.
• Devonte Adams is “touchdown-dependent but… Stafford looks for [him] when he gets close.” (49:54)
• Parker Washington, Jacoby Myers, Nico Collins, and other mid-tier options for deep playoff runs.

Tight Ends

• Top-Tier:

  • George Kittle: “If you’re doing a draft, reaching for Kittle is fine. …could play multiple games.” (51:48)
  • Dallas Goedert: “He leads the Eagles in receiving touchdowns… I actually think the Eagles will be in the Super Bowl again.” (52:20)

• Brenton Strange as playoff sleeper: “Five straight games with at least one red zone target…not a lot at the tight end position.” (51:48)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Schematically he's one of the best offensive coaches in the sport.” – Jay on Mike McDaniel, [08:12]
• “I think it's a loss to Devon A. Chan's value.” – Connor, [08:32]
• “If you are a head coach in demand and you can choose, it’s all about the quarterback.” – Connor, [13:28]
• “The problem with the Panthers is they don’t do anything well.” – Matthew, [16:51]
• “Tetterallo McMillan, he is the best chance the Panthers have in this game.” – Matthew, [20:17]
• “No team allows a higher completion percentage on deep passes 15 yards or more downfield than the Chicago Bears.” – Connor, [26:45]
• “Christian McCaffrey is going to touch the ball 25 times this game.” – Connor, [32:10]
• “If you're going to pay up for one [daily play], the two superstars I would be willing to pay up this weekend are Puka Nakua and Chris McCaffrey.” – Connor, [32:13]
• “I actually think the Eagles will be in the Super Bowl again. So [Goddard] is the type of tight end that I would target.” – Lawrence, [52:20]
• “Stafford is an 85% chance to get out of round one according to the market, whereas the guys directly beneath him…Josh Allen is a 50% chance…” – Matthew, [46:28]

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• [05:11]—Miami Dolphins fire Mike McDaniel; coaching carousel speculation
• [09:20]—John Harbaugh released by Ravens; debate on replacement and implications
• [14:51]—Panthers vs Rams preview, fantasy angles, and spread discussion
• [21:57]—Packers vs Bears DFS and prop leans
• [27:00]—Bills vs Jaguars; why Connor wants to stack Jaguars, thoughts on under
• [31:32]—Eagles vs 49ers; McCaffrey and Kittle as featured plays
• [38:16]—Chargers vs Patriots; RB injury concern, Pats DST DFS value
• [40:17]—Teaser on Texans vs Steelers, Nico Collins outlook
• [44:34]—Matthew Berry’s playoff fantasy positional rankings: QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs
• [52:20]—Tight end ranks, Goddard play, and Jacksonville outlook

Final Segment: Prop Bet Pickup Lines ([55:22])

• Jay: “SAQUON BARKLEY Over 18.5 rushing attempts… over in four straight.” (55:28)
• Lawrence: “Brock Purdy 20 rushing yards at plus 107. …Done it three of last four games.” (55:51)
• Jay: “Ramandre Stevenson over 13.5 receiving yards. …Last five games.” (56:26)
• Matthew: Rejects Connor’s pick, closes the show with the usual humor.

Summary in Original Tone

This episode blends sharp, actionable playoff fantasy and betting analysis with the panel’s trademark laughter and irreverence. From breakdowns of new coaching vacancies to detailed positional playoff rankings, the show gives listeners both the “why” behind key fantasy takes and the “how” for winning various playoff formats.

Berry and the crew emphasize opportunity, playoff path, and matchup nuance—especially in playoff leagues, where cumulative games matter as much as player talent. Iconic lines like “Pick the good ones, Mick!” (47:03) and “Christian McCaffrey is going to touch the ball 25 times this game” (32:10) both reinforce actionable advice and keep the entertainment high for fans craving deep-dive fantasy talk as the NFL postseason begins.