WR Tiers: Where to slot Justin Jefferson, Malik Nabers, Terry McLaurin, Tyreek Hill

Summary

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Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry

Episode: WR Tiers: Where to slot Justin Jefferson, Malik Nabers, Terry McLaurin, Tyreek Hill
Date: August 26, 2025
Hosts: Matthew Berry, Connor Rogers, Evil Jay Croucher

Overview

This episode dives into wide receiver (WR) tiers for 2025 fantasy drafts. The team debates the best WR options, analyzes changing situations for players like Justin Jefferson, Malik Nabers, Tyreek Hill, Terry McLaurin, and more. With deep analysis, strong opinions, and plenty of banter, Matthew, Connor, and Jay guide fantasy football drafters on how to approach WR rankings, identify potential values, and address this year's biggest questions—such as a young Vikings QB, fading stars, and risers in uncertain situations.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

Setting the Table: Tier 1 Wide Receivers

[04:39 – 06:13]

• Tier 1 WRs: Ja’Marr Chase (#1), Justin Jefferson (#2), CeeDee Lamb (#3)
  • Matthew Berry: “I’m taking Ja’Marr Chase. Don’t overthink this one—he’s got the highest floor and highest ceiling. There’s no way for Ja’Marr Chase to fail if he stays healthy.” (05:23)
  • On Chase: Reliable even with backup QBs. “He is money in the bank.” (05:46)
  • On Jefferson's QB situation:
    Connor Rogers: “He produced with Nick Effin Mullins. He is quarterback proof.” (06:22) Matthew Berry: “Nick Mullens chucks it up … But, he throws it to the other team a lot.” (07:24)
  • On CeeDee Lamb with changes in Dallas:
    Evil Jay Croucher: “He’s just a volume machine... the way they use him, I have no concerns.” (09:08) Matthew Berry: “That’s why I have him third—not first or second. But Dak’s gonna have a bounce-back year.” (09:30)

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Second Tier Standouts: Next-Wave Elite WRs

[11:26 – 19:09]

• Main names: Malik Nabers, Nico Collins, Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown, AJ Brown, Drake London, Brian Thomas Jr.
• Evil Jay bold prediction: “Nico Collins is going to win the season as a top two wide receiver... He could be an absolute monster this year.” (12:44)
  • Matthew Berry agrees: “I have him as WR5—well ahead of ADP.”
• Connor Rogers makes case for Malik Nabers: “Would I be shocked if Malik Nabers has a 150+ target season? Not at all. Every QB he could get is an upgrade over last year.” (15:44)
• Matthew Berry high on Drake London: “There’s a chance Drake London flirts with a 40% target share. He could get the most targets in the league.” (16:34)

Notable Debate:

On Amon-Ra St. Brown’s floor vs upside

• Connor Rogers: “For a guy his size, Amon-Ra scores more touchdowns than you’d think… But the ceiling isn’t quite there with all the other weapons.” (18:16)

On AJ Brown, under-the-radar:

• Connor Rogers: “If the Eagles just go back to being reasonably run-heavy instead of crazy run-heavy, I think AJ Brown could have a really nice year.” (19:12)
• Matthew Berry: “He’s not on the wrong side of the aging curve. AJ Brown will bounce back.” (20:06)

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Tier 3: High Variance & Former Studs

[19:12 – 27:08]

• Led by: Lad McConkey, Tee Higgins, Tyreek Hill, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr., Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin, etc.
• If you wait on WR … who’s safe as your WR1?
  • Matthew Berry: “Mike Evans is the lowest in this tier I’d feel okay with as WR1—he hasn’t averaged under 15 fantasy points since 2017.” (21:15)
  • Connor Rogers: “If you’re down here, you want volume shooters—Evans, maybe T-Mac (Tetaroa McMillan). Others are WR2s.”
• On Tyreek Hill’s outlook:
  • Matthew Berry: “I’m just out on Tyreek. The consistency of his speed just fell off a cliff. The WR1-type ceiling is probably gone.” (23:37)
  • Connor Rogers pushes back: “But that’s baked into the price—he’s now a fourth/fifth-rounder. McDaniel will still scheme him open.” (24:12)

The Terry McLaurin Dilemma

• Fan comments call for Scary Terry to be higher in rankings.
  • Matthew Berry’s response:
    “I’m nervous about the late arrival, Deebo Samuel being there, and the TDs from last year being an outlier… If he regresses to 6–8 TDs and isn’t the main red zone guy, his ceiling is capped.” (25:17 – 27:07)

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Tier 4: Upside Sleepers & Question Marks

[32:32 – 41:20]

• Led by: Travis Hunter, DK Metcalf (now in Pittsburgh), Zay Flowers, Jalen Waddle, Rashee Rice, Emeka Egbuka, Jacoby Myers, Rome Odunze, Ricky Pearsall, Matthew Golden, etc.

Jaylen Waddle: Bounce-back Candidate

• Matthew Berry: “I’m old enough to remember when Jaylen Waddle had over 1350 yards and 8 TDs. Tyreek’s age/speed worries me way more—Waddle could be the WR1 here.” (34:15)

“Hate List” Cautions

• Zay Flowers — Matthew: “More floor than ceiling. Only 7 red-zone targets last year. Lots of mouths in Baltimore.” (35:55)
• DK Metcalf — New team, old QB:
  • Connor Rogers: “With Aaron Rodgers, you’re living on big plays, and there’ll be weeks you get nothing—big price for those duds.” (37:18)
  • Matthew Berry: “Arthur Smith wants to snap early, run a ton; Rodgers wants the opposite. Is he going to relent? At 41, I doubt it.” (37:42)

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Tier 4, Part 2: Fading Stars & Deep Shots

[41:33 – 43:14]

• Stefon Diggs, Deebo Samuel, Cooper Kupp, Jauan Jennings, Jerry Jeudy, Jordan Addison (suspension), Khalil Shakir, Chris Olave…
  • Connor Rogers: “Usually, none of these should be starters unless you’re deep at three WR. All have warts: injuries, declining role, tough competition, or off-field issues.” (41:56)
  • Matthew Berry on Kupp: “I like Cup relative to where he’s going—still lots of targets. Health is the big question, but Seattle will run a lot of bunch formations.” (41:20)

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Tier 5: Bargain Bin & Bench Stashes

[41:46 – 43:14]

• Josh Downs, Jayden Reed, Chris Godwin (hurt), Rashid Shaheed, Michael Pittman, Keon Coleman, Darnell Mooney, Brandon Aiyuk (out until Week 6), Keenan Allen
  • Connor Rogers: “If you have an IR spot, I like stashing Godwin or Mooney. With Aiyuk, you just hope he’s productive by fantasy playoffs.” (42:08)
  • Matthew Berry: “Not actively targeting Aiyuk, but you can get him cheap—if he’s back to form for the playoffs, it’s a steal.” (42:40)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Justin Jefferson’s “QB-proof” status:
  “He produced with Nick Effin Mullins. Why are we having this conversation? He’s Justin Jefferson. He is quarterback proof.” – Connor Rogers (06:22)
• On Tyreek Hill's outlook:
  “I’m just out on Tyreek. His next-gen speed numbers just fell off a cliff… the WR1-type season is gone.” – Matthew Berry (23:37)
• On Malik Nabers' meteoric rise:
  “Receiver 6 last year with Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, and Tommy DeVito. Now it’s Russell Wilson or Jackson Dart. That’s a big upgrade.” – Connor Rogers (15:44)
• On the Eagles’ changing offense:
  “If they just get back to being reasonably run-heavy and not crazy run-heavy, I think A.J. Brown could actually have a really nice year.” – Connor Rogers (19:12)
• Debating McLaurin’s touchdown regression:
  “He’s always been a 4–5 TD guy, then suddenly jumps to 13. If he regresses to 6–8, it’s not a disaster—but it’s not the same value.” – Jay Croucher (26:34)

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Important Timestamps

• [05:15 – 06:20]: Establishing Tier 1—Chase, Jefferson, and Lamb defense
• [12:29 – 16:42]: Nico Collins, Malik Nabers, Drake London breakout talk
• [19:12 – 20:22]: Eagles and AJ Brown’s bounce-back potential
• [21:15 – 22:18]: Tier 3 “trustworthy” WR1s debate (Mike Evans, T-Mac)
• [23:37 – 25:03]: Tyreek Hill’s risks and the “baked-in” discount discussion
• [32:32 – 34:52]: Jalen Waddle’s comeback case
• [35:55 – 37:18]: Zay Flowers and DK Metcalf on the “Hate List”
• [41:46 – 42:40]: Deep league/bench strategy on injured WRs and late-round stashes

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Audience Interactions & Fun Banter

• Fans in chat: Call out Berry for supposedly being a “turncoat” on McLaurin.
  • Berry: “All I do is get accused of being a homer, then when I’m not, you bail on me for not being homer enough!” (27:29)
• Regulars: Challenged to watch the full 12-hour draft marathon:
  • “If you somehow prove you watched all 12 hours, we’ll put your name or photo up here on the set!” – Connor Rogers (30:00)
• On NFL news and WR shakeups:
  • Amari Cooper’s fantasy value dismissed: “I think the guy just hit a wall… He might be done.” – Matthew Berry (43:39)
  • Jacoby Myers trade request: high on his consistency if he lands in the right spot (46:09)
• Promo wars: Hosts jokingly pitch their FantasyLife.com promo codes (Matthew 20, Connor 20, J20, etc.) (50:18 – 51:21)

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Tone & Language

• Playful, conversational banter with expert-level fantasy football analysis.
• Willing to poke fun at each other (“turncoat,” “hero becomes villain,” “NWO” wrestling reference), but always directs back to giving actionable advice for fantasy drafters.

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Summary Takeaways for Fantasy Players

1. Tier 1 WRs (Chase, Jefferson, Lamb) stand alone—don’t overthink them. All are “high floor, high ceiling.”
2. Don’t fear Jefferson’s new QB—elite WRs are QB-proof.
3. Nico Collins and Malik Nabers are league-winners in waiting—with sky-high volume and talent.
4. AJ Brown, Drake London, Brian Thomas Jr.—all have credible cases to outperform ADP, given a shift in team context or talent surge.
5. In mid-rounds, prioritize guaranteed volume and health. If you punt WR early, Mike Evans is the last “safe” WR1 option in this crew.
6. Tyreek Hill carries risk with real signs of decline, but drafters are getting that risk at a discount.
7. Don’t chase last year’s TD spikes (e.g., McLaurin) and be wary of changing offenses (DK Metcalf, Zay Flowers) unless the role and volume are clear.
8. Late tiers offer stashes and high-upside returns—especially if you have IR spots.

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Final Note

This episode is a one-stop shop for understanding WR depth and dynamics for 2025 fantasy football. The NBC Sports crew blends sharp, evidence-based analysis with fantasy wisdom and locker-room humor to help drafters navigate the trickiest tier decisions of the season.

Transcript

[Matthew Berry]

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[Matthew Berry]

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[Connor Rogers]

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[Evil Jay Croucher]

There in time for International Sleep day.

[Connor Rogers]

You've got AT and T5G so you're fully confident, but the vendor isn't responding. And International Sleep Day is tomorrow.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Luckily, AT&T 5G lets you deal with.

[Connor Rogers]

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[Evil Jay Croucher]

So the pillows will get delivered and everyone can sleep soundly, especially you.

[Connor Rogers]

AT&T 5G requires a compatible plan and device. Coverage not available everywhere. Learn [e-mail] 5G Network Yes, Evil Jay, what are the betting odds on Kyle Pitts for Comeback Player of the Year?

[Matthew Berry]

Thank you for the question, Clark Brady. Well, the literal story here is that the ap, the Associated Press, who governs these awards, was so disgusted with the outcome of Joe Flacco winning Comeback Player of the Year, they literally changed the rules so that you can't come back from sucking Karl Pittelson last year. He just sucked. So he's ineligible to win the award because Joe Flacca literally ruined the award for everyone because he was so against the spirit. So we can't let this happen ever again. So he's banned so he can't win. Literally can't win.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. So there's no odds off the table, Clark Brady. But we appreciate.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Yes, we appreciate.

[Connor Rogers]

Question.

[Matthew Berry]

I think Christian McCaffrey is the guy.

[Connor Rogers]

Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Happy Hour. Connor Rogers, Matthew Berry, Evil Jay Croucher.

[Connor Rogers]

You heard it from.

[Matthew Berry]

Oh, it's gone.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

You're not evil anymore. Haircut.

[Connor Rogers]

Kind of like it.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. Got to do a Premier League commercial later and I don't think the Premier League, I think the Premier League wants people to watch their games.

[Connor Rogers]

Ah.

[Matthew Berry]

And so no one's going to watch Arsenal Liverpool if they have to see my mustache.

[Connor Rogers]

What kind of, what kind of Premier League commercial are you possibly doing? I don't know.

[Matthew Berry]

I actually don't know. I just got the three words Premier League commercial. That was my cue to show. But the problem is, Matthew, is that so If I have the kind of faux mustache, I look 13 years old and now with it shaven off, I look six years old. Yeah, I just have no pathway to. I'm 33 years old.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

I have no pathway back to a birth date of 1992. Yeah, it's in the 2000s.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. No, it's a weird one for sure. I will say this, however, while you struggle with your age and you still get carded, one kid that no longer needs to get carded is my son Connor, who turns 21 years old. Big day. Big day. So my kid Connor, he drinks free here in the happy hour. He's currently a junior at Alabama. That's me and my son, we were fishing, I don't know, a couple of weeks ago before he went out, before he went back to Alabama where he's a junior. Roll tide. So it is his birthday today, 21 years old. So finally tonight he'll have his first drink. Yes.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Tough place to have a 21st birthday.

[Connor Rogers]

Oh, my goodness.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Nothing to do with Tuscaloosa.

[Connor Rogers]

He'll be okay. But he's an absolutely great kid. He's a great fisherman and made Dean's list at Alabama as well. Couldn't be more proud of the kid. So, Connor, love you. Happy birthday.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Happy birthday.

[Connor Rogers]

By the way. Officially my favorite Connor too.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Oh, he's number one.

[Connor Rogers]

Oh, he's number one.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Am I two? James Connor's number two.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, you're in the top ten.

[Matthew Berry]

Strange. You've got a 21 year old son named Connie. You've got a 21 year Old co.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Host named a lot of times, I'm not gonna lie. I walked into the studio today and our lovely crew was like, why are you drinking free today? And I was like, I'm drinking free today. And I found out I'm not drinking free today.

[Connor Rogers]

No, you're not.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

I paid double here at the happy hour bar.

[Connor Rogers]

Right. So it's my son Connor who can now legally drink here in this bar and every bar across America. So happy birthday, Connor. Let's get to the show.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Yeah, a lot to do today. Player news, of course. Later on updates, Joe Mixon, Amari Cooper, the Cleveland quarterback situation. More Joe Flacco talk, which Jay just keeps asking for. And we're like, all right, fine, we'll talk about Joe Flacco. But before we do any of that, wide receiver tier day, big one.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, let's go.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

So big that unlike tight ends, it requires more than one segment.

[Connor Rogers]

What?

[Evil Jay Croucher]

You were gonna. You're staring at something. What are you Staring at.

[Connor Rogers]

I'm waiting for you to like talk. I was editing.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

You were like, let's go. And then you stared at the.

[Connor Rogers]

I assumed there was some sort of gonna be. There was gonna be sound or comment. This is regular.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

This is my fourth year working with you. I know your him so well. When you look at the camera, I'm ready for like the big, you know, speech.

[Connor Rogers]

I thought there was going to be something.

[Matthew Berry]

You thought that Jamal Chase was going to start speaking, but he's not coming.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

He'S not walking, something like that or.

[Connor Rogers]

Or that we were going to show rankings or something. I always look. So there it is. Yeah, we have a screen. When I'm looking at the camera, we have a screen behind the camera. That's what I'm looking at. So I'm now seeing what you at home are seeing as well. If you're watching this on YouTube or Peacock. I am seeing my wide receiver rankings. Tier number one, proud fantasy life. Jamar Chase, of course, is my number one wide receiver. My number one overall. I have Justin Jefferson at wide receiver two, and my guy, 8 CD Lamb, is wide receiver three. All of these guys, friends of the podcast, all these guys, all of them.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Eights is what his friends call Jay. Let me ask you a simple question. For wide receiver tier one, you have the number one pick in Redraft. Are you taking Jamar Chase or are you going with something a little off the board?

[Matthew Berry]

No, I'm taking Jamar Chase. I think you don't overthink this one. I think he's got the highest floor and the highest ceiling. It's a good combination to have. I think that this Bengals defense, even with Trey Hendrickson back, still going to be bad, going to be a good defense. I think Borrow is going to lead the league in passing yards. There's just, there is no way for Jamar Chase to fail if he stays healthy. Like, there's just no way. Even if Joe Barrow getting hurt, obviously some sort of risk, but not really.

[Connor Rogers]

Enough to make even with Jake Browning, though. I mean, so he's still produced with Jake Browning. He is, he is money in the bank. So, yeah, I mean, I think I always say this. You can't lose your, you can't win your league in the first round or you can lose it. And so I think with first round picks, you generally want to go safe. And I would argue that any of these wide receivers in tier one, just the three guys, Chase Jefferson and Ceedee Lamb, are all high floor, high ceiling guys. They're all worthy of a first round pick.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Even with the young quarterback in Minnesota, you still high on Justin Jefferson?

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, no, I get that question a lot. Like, oh, I don't know about J.D. mcCarthy.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

I'm causing him to fall more than he typically would.

[Connor Rogers]

Which is insane because by the way, this is the same conversation we had last year with Sam Darnold and people were like, I don't know about Sam Darnold. Really. You know, Cousins is gone. Like, what are we going to do? Like, here's the answer. In four games with Nick Effin Mullins, he scored 22 fantasy points. Like every argument should be done. Like he produced with Nick Mullins. What are we doing here, people? He's Justin Jefferson. He is quarterback proof. He is quarterback proof. And by the way, not only is it Justin Jefferson's quarterback proof, when you are an elite. When you are an elite pass catcher, when you can earn targets at a high level, you are quarterback proof. Malik Neighbors, with the Suddenly released Tommy DeVito last year was wide receiver 6 in fantasy points per game. Right. Brock Bowers with Aiden o' Connell and Gardner Minshew was the number one tight end in fantasy as a rookie. Like again, if you are an elite pass catcher, you will earn targets and it does not matter. Look what Brian Thomas Jr. Did with Mac Jones last year. For love of God, Nick Mullins. I don't need to say anything more. Nick Mullens. Why are we having this conversation?

[Evil Jay Croucher]

It's a real conversation.

[Matthew Berry]

Nick Mullins chucks it up. To be fair, Nick Mullens gets it up. His problem is that he throws it to the other team a lot. But, but no, it was, but like.

[Connor Rogers]

How much worse could JJ McCarthy be?

[Matthew Berry]

He's not going to be worse than Nick Mullins.

[Connor Rogers]

No, of course not.

[Matthew Berry]

It's actually physically impossible to be worse than Nick Mullens during that four games exists. Yeah, Carlson Wentz as well.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, I, I am, I am. I know there's a lot of debate about JJ McCarthy and we haven't really seen much of him and obviously he's coming off the serious injury. I am pro J.J. mcCarthy. I think, you know, I like the college tape and I think in this offense with Kevin o' Connell coaching him with the weapons around him, I think McCarthy is going to be good. I think. Here's the other thing. I think, I don't think the Vikings are stupid. I think it's a good front office and I think it's a good head coach. And so I suspect that if they didn't think JJ McCarthy was the real deal. If they didn't think like, they're like, hey, we might have screwed this one up. They wouldn't have let Sam Darnold walk. They easily could have had Sam Darnold back for another year, sign him to a two year deal with one year of guaranteed money and let JJ sit for another year behind Darnold or, or at least have a very solid insurance plan. If McCarthy didn't happen and they didn't, they said, go, Sam, go with God.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Go with God.

[Connor Rogers]

Go with God.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

Unbelievable. Yeah, My only like the slight concern with Jefferson just be this hamstring thing which again, like popped up a year or so ago as well. So. But again, not enough to demote him too much. Conor, do you think that pivoting to CD Lam. So I think people with Dak Prescott kind of forget a little bit. It's not just that Dak Prescott got hurt last year.

[Connor Rogers]

Dak Presco is bad.

[Matthew Berry]

For two months he did not play at a high level. Last year. A lot of the athletic metrics, his sack avoidance, his scramble. Right. That all fell off. Do you think that that diminishes CD Lamb or is CD Lamb just too good?

[Evil Jay Croucher]

I think it's more of the latter. I think he's just too good. I'm kind of concerned though. What we love about CD Lam is he's just a volume machine, right. And now George Pickens is going to get his. Obviously Ferguson is going to get his. But is it enough that takes CD Lamb at around one range? No, he's too good. The way they use him, they play him in the slot, they play him out of the backfield with routes. He obviously plays outside.

[Connor Rogers]

So.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

No, no concerns. CD Lam would be the third wide receiver I would take as well.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, I mean, look, he. That's why I'm at third versus one or two. But like, you know, George Pickens versus T. Higgins. Like, you know, I mean like we have Chase at number one, right. And so, you know, we think Dak Prescott, we think he's going to have a bounce back year. We think this is going to be a very high volume passing attack. And while Pickens certainly is going to earn more targets than, you know, you know, Cavante, Turpin or, you know, or yeah, Jonathan Mingo. Yeah, we always forget Jonathan Mingo. They traded a fourth four. They could add a quarterback for a fourth round anyway.

[Matthew Berry]

But like could have had two Kenny Pickets.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, had two Kenny Pickets for a fourth rounder. But. But all I'm saying is like Pickens is more of a deep ball threat. Like he's not a guy that you see generally getting like eight, nine targets a game. The way you see it with CD Lamb, like at least on this offense where he's the number two or possibly the number three behind Ferguson, depending on how you, how it shakes out and where they are on the field. I think Ferguson, I think, you know, Pickens is going to catch. It's going to be like, you know, he's going to be 4 for 80 with, you know, possibly for a long touchdown. I mean we're very high on Pickens. I'm very high on Pickens this year and we'll get to him in a second. But I don't, I don't feel the, you know, the addition of Pickens is a reason to downgrade Ceedee Lamb and.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

What would worry you is potential loss of touchdown equity. CD Lamb was great last year and caught six touchdowns.

[Connor Rogers]

Yes.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

So it's not like you're looking at a number the year before he caught 12 or you're like it might go down to seven or eight. No, it probably goes up honestly in this offense. So yeah, there's, I have a lot of faith in CD Lamb even with the changes around that team. And we haven't talked about if Michael Parsons isn't playing for that team. They are throwing a lot, they're not.

[Connor Rogers]

Going to run the ball and you know, it's always this double edged sword like, oh, Pickens is going to take targets away. Yes. But he's also going to take the defense down the field with him. He's going to take the, you know, take the top off the defense. And so CD Lamb, who's so good underneath with all those, you know, all those crossing routes and you know, out of the slot like he's Ceedee Lamb. He's going to be fine. It's going to be awesome.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Now if you are in your first round looking at one of the hero backs, you're probably thinking, okay, when it swings back around, I better get a wide receiver. Let's look at the tier 2 names because there's a lot of them. If you don't get a wide receiver in the first round, you can make up a lot of ground later on. Obviously Malik neighbors, Nico Collins, the upper echelon of that Matthew Opuka, Nakua, former rider, died great in Monroe St. Brown, Brian Thomas Jr. With an amazing rookie season. It's the year of Drake London with Michael Penix and then of course AJ Brown's just always hanging out in this range.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. Yeah. Look, I think you want one of these guys, at least one of these guys as your number one wide receiver in an ideal world. Right. If you get past this round, then we sort of. Then you've got to really nail. You have to either have two super strong running backs or you've got a running back and a tight end where you feel like you're going to crush. Now there's some depth at wide receiver which we'll get into in tier three. But I feel really good about any one of these guys as my number one wide receiver. If I leave the draft with one of the. Anyone, you know, one through 10among my wide receivers in terms of tier one or tier two, if that's my number one wide receiver, I'm good.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Let's go around the horn. Start with you, Jay, who we think out of this group has a chance to finish as the best wide receiver in fantasy football.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

So my newest hot take them trialing out like Matty was trialing his Milano fit yesterday. More of a conventional look from Matthew Americana.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Again.

[Matthew Berry]

I think Nico Collins is going to win the season. It's a top two wide receiver and I think a lot of his value is being suppressed by the fact that he was playing less than 70 of the snaps. He's dealing with injury. Don't think he had a very good offensive coordinator. And Bobby Slowik, he was dealing with competition from guys like Stefan Diggs and Tank Dell over the past couple years. I think that Nico Collins, who in terms of yards per route run in the NFL the past two years has been the best wide receiver in football. He. And he's been able to do that without playing that much in the slot. Like sub 20% slot rate. They were playing a lot of like heavy personnel where he wasn't on the field. I think there's a ton of upside. Also running back at the moment, like Nick Chubb is their lead running back at the moment. Joe Mixon. I don't know if he's going to play football again. He's reporting that he might not play this year. So I think that there's just a lot of momentum towards Nico Collins being the type of 2022 Justin Jefferson, Cooper cup type season, 2020. I think he could be an absolute monster this year.

[Connor Rogers]

Look, he was a runner up for the ride or die, right. And so I went with more of a home run pick in Omarion. Ha. Thought Nico Collins was a little bit quote unquote safer and I wanted to go a little bit more risky. But he was the runner up for Ride or Die for a Reason. So I'm completely honest. He was on the love list again. I mean, you see it here. I have him as wide receiver five. I was in the top five wide receiver. That's well ahead of where he's going in terms of ADP among other wide receivers as well. Over the last two years, he's third in fantasy points per target. So when he's out there, he's very productive. So the argument is like, right, can he stay healthy? I do think Stroud will be better this year. I do think they'll be more pass heavy this year. Last year it was insane, like how much they would just run like, you know, first and second down every single time. Like it was crazy. And it's one of the reasons why they made the change at offense coordinator. And we also think about the fact that there's no Stefon Diggs, there's no Tank Dell. Yes, they have Christian Kirk. Yes, they've got a couple of rookies but it's going to take a while to develop them. Nico Collins is at alpha and more importantly Connor. They design ways to get the ball in his hands. Like it's not all the deep stuff. They scheme cheap catches for him.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

They do. And what you love about Nico Collins is we talk so many times about, okay, what's the slot opportunities for so many of these guys. He's a boundary winner. Like when you have Nico Collins on the outside, he can win just as well as he could win a lot of the ways these guys went inside. So you don't worry as much about the usage. But Matthew, you're right. It's a bonus that he gets good. He should get new usage in an offense that's going to be different under Caleb. But for me guys, my choice is Malik Nabors which is an easy one. Right. He's the top guy in the tier 2. But it's volume. Would I be shocked if Malik Neighbors has a 2022, 2023 CD Lam kind of season where you get north of 156 targets, you get a ton of receiving yards and the fact of what he did last year where he finished his wide receiver 6 with Daniel Jones, Tommy Devito, Drew Locke. Now you go Russell Wilson, eventually Jackson Dart and emergency Jameis Winston and he's the guy in the offense, he's going to get deep targets, he's going to get screen targets, he's going to be a PPR machine. I am very comfortable taking Malik Neighbors at the end of round one wide.

[Connor Rogers]

Receiver six in 2004 with Daniel Jones, Drew Locke and Tommy DeVito.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

It's crazy.

[Connor Rogers]

So now he's got, he's got either Russell Wilson or Jackson Dart or even maybe Famous Jameis. Right. Whoever, what, whoever is his quarterback this year is going to be, is going to be a significant upgrade over what he did last year when again he was wide receiver six 1,000%. I think there's. It would not be a shock. It's well within the range of outcomes if a year from now we're talking about number one wide receiver in fantasy Malik Neighbors or number one wide receiver in fantasy Nico Collins. So I agree with both those picks. Just to give one more sort of idea here is you know two other guys that I think could, could, could be. There is Detective Drake London of course. I mean like again I know people are talking about Kyle Pitts but like there's a chance that, that he flirt. That Drake London flirts with a 40% target share could have the most targets in the league. He could have the most targets in the league with a quarterback that looked good in a small sample size is going to fling it and if he suddenly gets the touchdowns which just hasn't been there in a big way.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

He should.

[Connor Rogers]

But he should. Right. And so I think Detective Drink London could get there and listen Brian Thomas over his final six games last year was the second best wide receiver in fantasy football. Now some of that was with Mac Jones and now they've added Travis Hunter. But the talent is off the charts. I think Trevor Lawrence is better than he gets credit for and I think he'll be better this year under Liam Cohen. I think they're going to throw a ton and so Brian Thomas just may be a guy that like just where the talent wins out. So that I think that's on the list here list as well.

[Matthew Berry]

By the way crazy thing because this should be extremely anti correlated but I think there's a chance that Drake London has the most targets in football and Bijan Robinson has the most carries in football. It just shows you how streamlined that offense is between just those two guys.

[Connor Rogers]

We still don't have a timetable for Darnell Mooney's return. Yeah, I mean right now Drake London's competing for targets with Kyle P. Pitts who were, you know what is year four of waiting on Kyle Pitts and Ray Ray McLeod. Am I forgetting anyone like in Atlanta like right.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

We don't know if Mooney is going to be healthy to start the like that's a big if right now it's.

[Connor Rogers]

The last thing I saw was no timetable for his return. Like which is, you know, the four worst words in fantasy football. We're hoping Mooney gets back but just in the meantime it's going to be, it is a really, it's a good offense. It's going to be very concentrated and.

[Matthew Berry]

The defense probably not going to be that good.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

No K Gemma in the comments here. Amon Ra too high for me. Jaymo will rise and Laporta bounce back. And I think Gibbs passing game production slight uptick. I'll say this kjema, you can believe in all those things. Jared Goff still threw for over 4,600 yards last year. So even if those things happen for those other guys, it might not affect Amon Ra at all.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. By the way, more for us for a smaller slot guy. Amon Ross St. Brown scores a lot more touchdowns than you would think. You know they just Jared Goff trust him when they get into the end zone, in the red zone and look close. He scores a lot more touchdowns. And like the reason I didn't mention him as a potential number one because I do think his ceiling is limited to your point. You know, with Williams coming on and Laporta and of course the running backs, Gibbs is going to be more involved in the passing game this year. But the floor is so high like he is. He has seven to eight receptions every single game and so that's why he's here. I think the floor is highest on Amara St. Brown like Pukinakua could wind up as the number one wide receiver. He can also find up his wide receiver 40 like with the health, you know he's, he's got potential health issues. Stafford's back. You know, I mean I just, I feel like there's a floor with Amon Ross St. Brown that isn't necessarily there with a couple of the other guys. But the other guys have higher upside.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Let's look at tier 3 which is LED by.

[Connor Rogers]

Before we move on, I just one last quick thing on this thing is that I do think not. I haven't seen a lot of people talking about A.J. brown in the preseason. No. And it's just like again the premise here is that last year was kind of an outlier year for the Eagles where they went so insanely run heavy. They were the run heaviest team in the NFL and that if they go back to normal levels under Sirianni which is like basically still run heavy but like top 10, not the run heaviest team and they try to take some Pressure off Saquon and they try to throw it a little bit more. Again, you talk about a narrow, you know, you've got. It's A.J. brown and Devontae Smith. And so I do think A.J. brown, who just is one of the best wide receivers NFL wise in the league. If they just get back to being reasonably run heavy as opposed to crazy run heavy, I think A.J. brown could actually have a really nice year.

[Matthew Berry]

Yep. Two thirds of the way through 2023, the clear three best skill position players in football, Christian McCaffrey, Tyree Kill and A.J.

[Connor Rogers]

Brown.

[Matthew Berry]

Like, A.J. brown was doing this thing where he's putting up 125 yards and a touchdown every week. And he's the only one of those three guys who's like, not on the wrong side of the aging curve and like they're just going to throw the ball more. Saquon's not going to get close to 500 touches, you know, regular season and post season combined. So I think AJ Brown will bounce back.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Yeah, I'm with you guys as well. Should be a good year for A.J. brown. Terrence Murphy comedy Matthew Berry sees it. AJB is always a top five wide receiver in every metric. I pray he falls to me.

[Connor Rogers]

Two rocket ship emojis. Yes. Not just one.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

To the moon.

[Connor Rogers]

To the moon. There we go. I like it. Terrance.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

All right, let's look at tier three, led by lad McConkey. This is a very deep group, so we will have quite a few players to go through here. Of course, McConkie and T. Higgins at the top. The high variance situation in Tyreek Hill, a guy that's typically in t year one and obviously had a really tough year for a lot of situations. JSN Demonte Adams, Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr. Mike Evans, T. Mack, Tetaroa McMillan and Xavier Worthy. Matthew, who is the lowest ranked player from this group that you're comfortable as your wide receiver? 1 say you started the draft and you go, okay, I actually just want two running backs out of the gate. Or I took a running back in Brock Bowers. Who would you look at in this group?

[Connor Rogers]

I think Mike Evans is the guy. Maybe Ted Roa McMillan. But Mike Evans is the guy that I definitely feel the most confident in terms of. Like, if you get down this far, as you sort of see it there on your screen. But whether it's McConkey, Higgins, Tyree Kill, JSN Devonte Adams, Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr. And then Mike Evans, who has not averaged below 15 fantasy points in a game since 2017 like, there's just such a high floor there. And again, it's weird for. For a team that a month and a half ago we're talking about, wow, they got a lot of mouths to feed. Chris Godwin's going to miss at least the first four games, and it might be more. Jalen McMillan is going to miss like half the season, if not longer. And so all of a sudden, one of the best offenses in football, which we talk about with the Buccaneers all the time, has again, a very narrow target tree. Right. It's the running backs. It's Evans and it's a mecca. Buka. And so Evans I would feel very good about as my number one wide receiver, assuming, like again, I've gone running back, running back, or I grabbed a tight end with one of the first couple of picks along with a running back. But that's about as low as I'd want to go in tier three. Then you start getting into some question marks.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Yeah, I think you have to go for volume shooting of multiple of these guys. We went through the first part of tier three. There's a part two that includes after Mike Evans and T. Mac and worthy, Cortland Sutton, D.J. moore, Calvin Ridley, George Pickens, Terry McLaurin now under contract, which is a very good feeling for Commanders fans and for all of us in fantasy. Devontae Smith, Jameson Williams.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, look, and a lot of these guys are on the love list. A lot of these guys I'm really excited about in terms of their upside and having them as a wide receiver too. Cortland Sutton was a top 10 wide receiver of his final 10 games from week 10 on. He's been getting a massive target share in preseason with Bo Nix. I think Sutton is going to have a big year. We've talked about Calvin Ridley. Same thing, massive target share. But again, there's just some questions there in terms of Peyton's offense runs. Cam Ward, we think he's going to be good, but who knows as well, McLaurin has Deebo to deal with. Pickens has Ceedee Lamb, obviously. Jamison Williams has Amon Ra and LaPorta. You know, D.J. moore. We talked yesterday about how Roma Dunze is getting a lot of looks from Caleb Williams in the preseason. So. So again, all those guys like I really like as my wide receiver too. Especially like sort of Sutton, Moore, Ridley, Pickens, like all that. That list right there is, you know, I think, huge upside. Jameson Williams, but I'm nervous about any of them as going in with my. My wide receiver. 1.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, one guy across this two parts of tier three that I'm just not drafting at all now is is Tariq Hill. I'm just out on Tyreek. Nate Tice did a great breakdown on his podcast Football 301 about Tyreek's his next gen stats speed metrics. If you look a little bit different, he was still hitting the same top speed occasionally but just like the consistency of his speed just fell off a cliff. Like he just wasn't the same guy athletically last year. And we know Tyree Kill pretty dependent on his speed. He can still be useful if he drops off a little bit. But the I think the you know, wide receiver one type. So I think that's, that's probably gone.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, probably. Although I would argue the counter to that is that again what he wasn't trying. Oh no, I think, I think the counter to that is that that all those concerns are baked into his price. This is a guy a year ago that was going as a top five overall pick and now he's going like in the fourth, fifth round. And so again it's an offense that we like as long as two is healthy and it's really, it's him and Waddle and A Chan. So while he may not have the long breakaway 80 yard touchdowns, I do think McDaniel is a really good play caller and will scheme him open and try to find ways to get him into space. And so you know, maybe he gets caught from behind by a safety whereas a year or two ago he wouldn't have been. But I still think there's a, there's a scenario where he's a productive fantasy player this year because again it's baked into his ADP currently. Those concerns, which I think are legit.

[Matthew Berry]

Sure we're going to get into him in the next year, but I think there's a very good chance that Jalen Waddle out produces Tyree Kill this year.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Nicholas Lombardo in the comments. Scary. Terry needs to be moved up. What do you think of that Matthew? You look nervous about the late arrival. Could be a slow start.

[Connor Rogers]

I'm nervous about the late arrival. I'm nervous about Deebo Samuel being there and I'm nervous about the fact that like last year was an outlier for him in terms of his touchdowns. He's never been, he's always been like a four touchdown a year guy and then last year he has double digit touchdowns. Now I get it. Jaden Daniels is like Miles a universe removed from all the other quarterbacks that Terry McLaurin has had but I'm just saying, like, he's not a huge. He just. Traditionally, throughout his career, he's never been a huge red zone target, you know, never been a big touchdown scorer. They've got Ertz there. They've got Debo that they can be creative with. They've obviously got the two running backs as well. Jaden's always a threat to run it himself. So I just. If he regresses the touchdowns and he's, like, closer to like, six or seven, which I think is reasonable. Even eight, you know, maybe. So I actually think I might be a little bit too high on McLaren, that I'm wearing my burgundy and gold glasses and that I need to, like, take them off and be like, all right, I might move them a couple down, a couple spots down.

[Matthew Berry]

Might be a slowish start, and they've got a tougher schedule this year. But I think Con ultimately, like, he plays with Jaden Daniels, I think his top five quarterback, and he's the only guy in that receiver room who I feel good about in man coverage. Like, Debo's gonna be great zone. But, like, McLaren, if you need a guy to win, like, he's still the guy.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Yeah. I'd argue that his targets go up this year at 117 last year, which was down from the 132 previously. But I agree with Matthew. The four previous years, he averaged four and a half touchdowns. It was 4, 5, 5, 4. And then you go up to 13. So, like, natural regression there, and that's okay. The offense will probably still be great. But that's a. That's a big part of this value for last year. If he.

[Connor Rogers]

If he gets eight touchdowns this year, which would be a double over his career average prior to last year. Still a great year, but, like, not the 13 you got from him last year where he was, you know, flirting with top 10ish.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Exactly.

[Connor Rogers]

Production. So that's just my concern on McLaurin, who I love, and I'm thrilled that he's back with the commanders. I think it's great for Jaden Daniels, great for my Washington team. Hell, commander's hail victory. But, you know, just. Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

Sad to say. Sad to say. This Matthew turning you back.

[Connor Rogers]

I'm not.

[Matthew Berry]

Scary.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

When things got good too high on.

[Matthew Berry]

Him, you say, unbelievable.

[Connor Rogers]

Screw you guys.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

They finally got good and you leave it out.

[Connor Rogers]

Hey, no, no, no. Screw you guys and screw the regulars. Because, like, all I do is get. Hang on. All I do is get accused of being a homer. All I do is getting accused of being a homer on this show. And then when I actually loyal and I'm like, when I'm not a homer, like you guys like bail on me for. For not being homer enough. Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

Now I think McLaurin is. I just think that I want shares of this Washington offense.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, that's fair.

[Matthew Berry]

I think the way you're a homer because you think like they win the super bowl defense, the defense is not going to be good. The offense though is going to be amazing. Like Jayne Daniels will not fail if he stays healthy. He will not fail. McLaren's still the number one guy.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. The events will be better than it was.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

You're to hear first. All right. On YouTube, Matthew is backstabbing Terry McLaren. Wow. And screw us shaking my head.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, Taj. Yeah, you're damn right. All you guys accusing me of bailing on my.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

How about K Gemma responding again? Matthew Turncoat Barry.

[Connor Rogers]

Wow.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Good God. Good God.

[Connor Rogers]

Zachary. Tight end three. There you go. How about that? Guys happy about that?

[Evil Jay Croucher]

The regulars are standing up for themselves and I respect that. With that, I think we probably need a break. But before we do, Big Ten Saturday night is back live this Saturday on NBC. And Peacock, we're kicking this season off from the Big House, New Mexico at number 14 Michigan. Here comes.

[Matthew Berry]

Let's go.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Saturday night. Alright, we're taking our first break. When we're back though, the wide receiver talk continues. We got more tears on the other side. Introducing Family Freedom from T Mobile.

[Connor Rogers]

We'll pay off four phones up to.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

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[Connor Rogers]

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[Evil Jay Croucher]

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[Connor Rogers]

Oh, Gekko, I just love being able to file a claim in under two minutes with the Geico app. Could you sign a.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Sign what? The app.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, sure. Oh, it rubbed off the screen when I touched it. Could you sign it again?

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Anything to help, I suppose.

[Matthew Berry]

Get more than just savings.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Get more with Geico draft season marathons of fantasy football happy hour over the next few weeks. That includes next Sunday at 9am and a mammoth 12 hour marathon on August 31st. That's all for free on the.

[Connor Rogers]

I'm just gonna tell you this. If anyone can prove that they Watched all, all of this marathon like on Sunday, August 31, which is Labor Day weekend. If you somehow prove that you watch that, we will put your name up. You will be free here and we will put your name or a photo of you up somewhere here on the set. So that's a shout out to all the regulars. Can you prove that you watched one of our draft season marathons on the NBC Sports now channel?

[Evil Jay Croucher]

The challenge has been presented. We have two more marathons left including that gargantuan 12 hour finale this Sunday. And not only that, but the bar has been set. Yeah, that is right. The challenge is accepted. Clark Brady, as you see, has a live stream planned for August 31st at 9am he is gonna react and of course watch all 12 hours of NBC Sports fantasy football happy hour marathon.

[Matthew Berry]

It's gonna be a terrible idea.

[Connor Rogers]

So there you go.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

I will be.

[Connor Rogers]

You can either, you can either watch the marathon or you can watch Clark Brady watch the marathon.

[Matthew Berry]

Which is Robbie doing.

[Connor Rogers]

Right? You know what? Or by the way, make it a second screen experience. Right? You know like watch the, watch the marathon. But then also have like your phone or tablet out and watch. Yes. Clark Brady.

[Matthew Berry]

The Brady cast.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, the Brady cast.

[Matthew Berry]

The answer to the Manning cast. We've been waiting for so long.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Finally a response.

[Matthew Berry]

Now we have the Brady cards.

[Connor Rogers]

Finally have a response. Yeah.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

By the way, the regulars are. They've been heard.

[Connor Rogers]

Have they?

[Evil Jay Croucher]

They're weighing in.

[Connor Rogers]

Okay, let's hear it. Yeah. Bring it on. Yeah.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Julio think you are said when you live long enough to see the hero become a villain.

[Connor Rogers]

Wow, am I suddenly evil J.

[Matthew Berry]

There is some.

[Connor Rogers]

By the way, Julio think you are. That's pretty good. Yeah.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Oh my goodness.

[Connor Rogers]

WWE Matthew just leg dropped the macho man and spray tainted spray painted NWO on his back. Oh my goodness.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Yeah, you might have lost them for.

[Connor Rogers]

I appreciate you guys, but you know what? Yeah, you know what? Like whatever. I'm just trying to provide an impartial fantasy analysis here. J.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Cross pressure turning back on his lovely commanders. Yeah, but that will.

[Matthew Berry]

I just don't want you celebrating the super bowl win.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

No, you don't get to go absolutely no more packages.

[Connor Rogers]

Just because I just because I think Terry McLaren might score less than 13 touchdowns this year.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Yeah, a real fan would predict 18.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. Debo is going to score 18.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Okay, there it is. How about tier four?

[Connor Rogers]

Corey Crosby merit is going to win the triple crown of Russia.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Therehere we go.

[Connor Rogers]

2,000 yards for JCM Offensive Player of the year. Yeah, I'm here for it now you're here all right, talking about it.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Tier 4 led by Travis Hunter. DK Metcalf in his new home in Pittsburgh. Zay Flowers. Jay, you're high on Jalen Waddle. We'll get to that in a second. Rasheed Rice because the incoming suspension, that's gonna play a big part. Otherwise we would have talked about Rasheed Rice in the last segment. Emeka Abouga, who's been on the rise, especially with Chris Godwin out. Jacoby Myers, who's in the news. We'll talk more about that as well with the potential trade request. Roma Dunze, former top 10 pick looking for a big year, too. Ricky Pearsall expected to gobble up a lot of the targets out of wide receivers in San Francisco. And then the round one wide receiver in Green Bay. Matthew. Matthew Golden.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, just a lot of guys here that are really interesting. I think there's some real nice upside here. We'll talk about Waddle in a second. I love Travis Hunter. I've talked about this before. I think he's going to have a monster year. Buccaneers third in wide receiver fantasy points last year under Liam Cohen. We've talked about how much draft capital they give up to go get Travis Hunter. First year gm, first year head coach. If nothing else, he needs to work. It was the same argument I made for Malik Neighbors last year. People were like Tommy DeVito, Drew Locke, whatever. And I'm just like, guys, Brian Dabel and Joe Shane are fighting for their jobs and they drafted Malik Neighbors early. If nothing else happens in New York last year, Malik Neighbors needs to work. And what happened? Obviously, Malik Neighbors worked in a massive way. Travis Hunter is going to get every opportunity this year to be a force on both sides of the ball. But specifically when he's on offense, like he's not running wind sprints. When he's out there, he's going to get targets. It doesn't matter about the amount of snaps he gets. It matters how many targets he gets and how many looks he's getting. And he's going to get a lot. He needs to work as well. We've talked about Abuka quite a bit on this show, but Jay, I'm with you. I think people are sleeping on Jaylen Waddle.

[Matthew Berry]

I'm old enough to remember in 2022 when Jaylen Waddle had over 1350 receiving yards, eight touchdowns by the way. 1350 rece receiving. How many guys do that? Last year the only two players in the NFL who topped that were Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase.

[Connor Rogers]

Right.

[Matthew Berry]

And I Get that? Yeah. Dolphins had a down year across the board, bad years for Waddle. Tyree Kill like Tyree Kill is on the other side of 30 and his speed fell off. It makes sense why he would decline. John was like 26. Like this shouldn't be the end for Jaylen Wall. He's banged up, feels he's been banged up the past couple of years. Seems like he's coming into camp healthier. He's got the upside of. The upside of a full a healthier 2 a year than last year year. And I think that he could emerge as the number one guy in a Mike McDaniel offense.

[Connor Rogers]

The other thing we're forgetting here is that last year John Smith had an almost 20% target share and now obviously John Smith now in Pittsburgh and they haven't. I mean we'll see with Darren Waller but like, no, we'll see with Darren Waller but the fact is it's not like they brought in a high priced free agent or a, you know, an early draft pick wide receiver that, that you. Where there's not an obvious person on the Dolphins roster right now where you're like, oh, where that's. Where does that 19% target share go? I think it's going to be distributed between Waddle and Hill and Achan out of the backfield. Like you'll see some Malik Washington and you know, we'll see what you get out of Waller. But like honestly, like it's going to be those guys. Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

Also kind of, they don't need defensive players left. Like the whole defense is injured. Good defensive line, but yeah, they'll be.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Able to get after the quarterback.

[Matthew Berry]

But if they don't, then the secondary is in big trouble. So there's going to be a lot of explosives. I think this team is going to be playing from behind a lot, throwing a lot. I just think that a high volume Mike McDaniel offense where Jaylen Waddle could be the number one guy. This guy, I think he could easily be a top 15 wide receiver.

[Connor Rogers]

Two of the guys on this list made the hate list this year. Zay Flowers. Not because he's, he's bad. Zay Flowers is great, but he's more of a floor guy than an upside guy. Only seven red zone targets last year. Only seven. When you think about how good Zay Flowers is and you know, of course as we've talked about, they've got the tight ends and Andrew likely when he comes back, they've got DeAndre Hopkins, they've got Rashad Bateman who came On Derek Henry and Lamar Jackson, always a threat at the goal line. We think Keaton Mitchell have a bigger role this year. So just nervous about the upside of Zay Flowers. But I'm curious Connor, your thoughts on DK Metcalf? He also made the hate list and part of my argument was because what I think this offense is going to look like under Arthur Smith. You saw Aaron Rodgers up close last year. Every game for the jets just doesn't.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Push the ball down the field anymore. And isn't that the value in large part of DK Metcalf? And he, he will because he has to. Like they paid decaf DK all that money. Obviously he's the guy there after they move on from Pickens, but it's just not the way Rogers is interested in playing anymore. And if he does it the first month of the season, that's great. After he started to get hit last year, a lot of that went away. There was flashes with a big pass to Devonte Adams against Jacksonville. Like you could remember the moments because they were so, so few and far between. So I, I just, I think they're going to throw to the tight ends a lot. They're going to run the ball a lot. And dk, you're going to be living on the big play and there'll be weeks you don't get that big play. And that's a big price to pay for a guy that gives you some, some weeks of honestly, Nothing like, like two for 25 yard kind of.

[Connor Rogers]

I'm lower on him than consensus. I have almost no shares of DK Metcalf.

[Matthew Berry]

I guess the pushback would be like who else? Who else?

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, that's the argument. But it's Arthur Smith.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

I don't think he cares.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, Robert, like, yeah, it's going to be interesting.

[Connor Rogers]

Robert woods released. Yeah, so he was released today.

[Matthew Berry]

Doesn't matter.

[Connor Rogers]

By the way, breaking news. Who knew Robert woods was on the Steelers?

[Matthew Berry]

Found out by the Saints yesterday.

[Connor Rogers]

Exactly.

[Matthew Berry]

Pertinent news.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

I think that one of the most interesting macro things about the season is just like is Aaron Rodgers going to relent on his Aaron Rodgers ness a bit? Because here's what Arthur Smith likes to do. Likes to use motion. Likes to snap the ball early in the play clock. Likes to run the ball a ton. You know what Aaron Rodgers likes to do? Likes to throw the ball a ton. Likes no motion, likes to snap the ball later than anyone on the play clock. So there's just interesting tension. I don't know, maybe he went to New York and had such a bad couple of years that he has decided to change a little bit. But I don't think the guys changed that much at 41.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Here's everything you just said. Here's my example of it. So they, they move Hackett away from play calling last year. Shocking.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, yeah.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

And they give Todd Downing the keys. They play Buffalo at home. The offense starts doing all those things. Motion misdirection, good usage of Breeze hall and Garrett Wilson. You're sitting there and you're like, finally, I've been waiting for this. After that one week of Downing doing that, they never did it again the rest of the season. It was static. It was an old, aged out offense. That's what you get with him because he has the keys and he's earned that at his. What he's done in his reputation around the league. But I'm not buying in. I can't buy in again.

[Connor Rogers]

And I will tell you, we've talked about this. I think you are going to be shocked. I think the regulars. Maybe I'll get back in your good graces with this one. I think the regulars will be shocked and annoyed by how much John, ooh. Smith touches the ball in the Steelers offense this year, like again.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Or happy because they took.

[Connor Rogers]

Or happy because they took him late. I'm telling you, like, I actually think John, who has a good year this year. This guy was a top five fantasy tight end last year. And I get it. It's a very different system. But like, Arthur Smith loves him some John Smith. There's not a lot of competition for targets. Like, I think there's a scenario where John Smith is second on this team and targets receptions, yards, receiving, touchdowns.

[Matthew Berry]

Sure. It's Roman Wilson and Calvin Austin.

[Connor Rogers]

Right. Pat Fryermuth, like whatever. Like, yeah. I mean, you know, Johnny Smith is more athletic than a lot of those guys.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Let's take a look at part two of tier four, which is kind of the list of guys that used to be great, great for the sport. I mean, Stefan Diggs.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Debo Samuel. And I truly mean it. Cooper cup great, like fantasy royalty.

[Connor Rogers]

Right.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

And now Cursa. And now it's what can we get out of them? And then you have the questions around Juwan Jennings health, Jerry Judy's quarterback situation, Jordan Addison's suspension, and Khalil Shakir's health.

[Connor Rogers]

See, I think Jordan Addison is actually kind of a. None of these guys should be. However many wide receiver you start, you know, none of these them should be starters. Unless you're in a, in a whatever a 12 team league, three wide receivers. So maybe one of these guys you can get by with as a wide receiver 3 and hope if you've gone heavy wide, you know you've gone. You went quarterback early, tight end early, went running back heavy. But generally speaking, these are all guys that have some warts, which is why they're down here at the bottom half of tier four. But also there's some upside we could if Chris Olave stays healthy. This is a guy who during his healthy games of his career has over 25% target share. Right. We, we've seen Stefan Diggs, who you know last year Diggs was like a top 16 wide receiver on a points per game basis before getting hurt. So how healthy is Diggs? We, you know, we've talked about Jennings, we don't know but like you know Debo Samuel, he's a perfect fit for how Kingsbury uses his offense. A lot of screen passes, a lot of motion as well. And so Khalil Shakir, when you think about his final 13 games, including the playoffs, he had at least six targets. So there's a scenario where he's the number one target for Josh Allen. But again a lot of competition for him. Debo, he's clearly, the number two. You know Jennings we just don't know the answer to can a lobby and dig stay healthy here. Addison does have the three game suspension. Cooper cup, amazing new change of scenery. Maybe that helps. But also Jay, like he was brutal at the end of last year.

[Matthew Berry]

He was. I like Cup a lot though relative to where he's going. Just because like Seattle. Geno Smith in Seattle last year threw the ball 578 times. Okay, so bring that down. So they throw it 100 less times somehow and they're more run heavy. Like where are the 500 targets going? Like JSA give JSN 150 targets. Like there's still a lot of targets in that offense. They're going to play a lot of bunch formation I think where like both guys are close to the line of screaming. So I think cup, the health is the question, but I think there's still upside in cup.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

All right, let's close it out with Tier 5 here trying to get some value on the bargain rack. Josh Downs, Jaden Reed, who's currently injured, as is Chris Godwin, Rashid Shahid, Michael Pittman, Keon Coleman, Darnell Mooney. Once again these are a lot of guys that are coming into the season banged up. Brandon Nyuk falls into that category as well. Matthew and then Keenan Allen trying to give it one more big go around with his Chargers.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, he's the end of Tier 5 Keenan Allen here, but these are all guys. I do think Josh Downs is really interesting, especially as long as Daniel Jones is the quarterback. Prior to getting injured, Rashid Shahid was a top 30 wide receiver on a points per game basis. Again, if you can, if you have, if you're. Especially if you're in a league with an IR spot, I don't mind drafting Godwin or even Darnell Mooney or IUK at this stage because you're not counting on them. And so you can just stash them. They're not costing you a roster spot. And when they come back, hopefully there's some production there.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, I don't go into any drafts like specifically targeting Brandon Ayuk, but I find I'm just winding up with him a lot because it's like there's a.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Chance nobody wants to touch him.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, yeah. No one wants to deal with it because he's going back in week six. It's like, all right, well, by the time the playoffs comes around, he could be the number one wide receiver from Brock Purdy and Cole Shanahan. Offense, like, that's very.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. Second half now again, how quickly. You know, just because he's out there doesn't mean he's going to be productive. He wasn't great before the injury, but you do feel like if he gets back in week six and then like by week nine or ten, he's back to looking more or less like Brandon Iuk again. Also a fairly narrow target tree on what we think is going to be a good offense.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

All right, guys, let's get into the ROTOR world player news. A lot going on during the week of cuts around the NFL and we start with the Athletics. Diana Rossini reports the Raiders are signing Amari Cooper to a one year contract. Raiders have been busy this week. They also traded a fifth round pick for Kenny Pickett, who's traded. It feels like more than anybody in the NFL these days. But Amari Cooper. Sticking with our wide receiver theme here, Matthew, does he have anything left in the tank?

[Connor Rogers]

I don't believe so. Neither do I. I don't think he's a great player. I don't think he's draftable. We'll see. I'd much prefer Trey Tucker or Jack Bash or, you know, Dante Thornton's having a great camp. Don, Dante Thornton's having a great camp. Again, like, I'll go back to my combine column. Right. And again, I was Talking to somebody within the Bills organization. And I just said, hey, Marty Cooper, what. What happened last year? And my source was just like, I think he's done. Yeah, like, like just, you know, like just sort of like, man, like, I think the guy just hit a wall. Like, it wasn't set, like demeaning or, you know, mean or anything like that. It was just like. It just like, you know, the person was sort of throwing up their arms like, you know, the organization doesn't know, but it just. He might not have been there again. Last year he averaged under three receptions, under 40 yards in eight games with Buffalo. He's 31 years old, just turned 31 in June. You know, he's going to an offense where he's not going to be a featured option again. We'll see. It's worth noting, though, that maybe this signing is a little bit of like, maybe he does. Can he have one west hurrah. He is a big name and Jacoby Myers has requested a trade.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Very interesting.

[Connor Rogers]

Very interesting.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

So it's a lot of targets if he goes.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

I think we're in the Allen Robinson on the Rams phase of market. Like, the end can come quickly.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Robert woods on the Steelers.

[Matthew Berry]

Apparently not on the Steelers or what's.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Your favorite moment of that?

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

Josh Allen, like Amari Cooper came onto Cobble Jets. Oh, that's a good one.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

We could do this for days.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah.

[Matthew Berry]

Mario Cooper had a chance to be the primary ex receiver for Josh Allen. That was there.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

He traded a real asset for.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah. I just think that if it didn't work out with Josh Allen when they kind of needed him, it's probably not going to work out. Geno Smith.

[Connor Rogers]

That's right. That's right. But it will be interesting to sort of like, we don't know if Jacoby Myers is going to hold out or not. This trade request came just very recently. It's a weird one.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

It is a weird one to come.

[Connor Rogers]

Now. I like, I understand if he made this like he'd made a contract demand six weeks ago.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Maybe he did. And. And it was unpredictable. Yeah. It's like, now we're not going to extend you. And now it hit the.

[Matthew Berry]

They drafted his replacement as well, which is.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Yeah, we took two wide receivers in the draft. They like Jack Besh a lot. They like Thornton a lot. I think Myers is 28. He sees the writing on the wall. He's underpaid. He makes $11 million a year. Said, I'm 28. I'm really good. Now's my time to get $25 million a year. If you're not going to do it and you're not going to do it, the Raiders are not going to do it. Someone else will. We'll see where it goes. He would be man if he went to a place where he's number two receiver and that is a promising place, it changes everything.

[Connor Rogers]

He's a really good wide receiver. He earns targets at a high rate. He was quietly productive in New England with a dysfunctional offense. Go back there. To be honest, he's been great. He's been great, honestly, since he's gotten to the Raiders three straight years, he's been a top 30 wide receiver in fantasy points per game. And he's never drafted. Drafted that high. Just really high floor. Nice consistency there. So be interesting to see how that all plays out. Last thing on the Raiders guys is that you mentioned it briefly, but Kenny Pickett, drafted by Pittsburgh, traded to Philadelphia, traded to Cleveland, now traded to the Raiders, his fourth team. Cleveland traded a fifth round pick to get him, and then they get a fifth round pick back in. Trading him away. Yeah.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

And he just is on the bench again. When he got traded to Cleveland, we were all like, hey, that's a job. They should give him a shot.

[Connor Rogers]

Right.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

And they drafted two quarterbacks. He's been banged up.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, that's just a backup. Yeah. Some people texting me, freaking out that the Niners gave up a sixth for Brian Robinson. Oh, they gave up a sixth round pick like, Brian Rob's gonna cut into McCaffrey's time. It's like, no, we've got fifth round picks flying around for Kenny all over the place. 101, I don't think. Yeah, obviously he's not going to play unless Jono gets hurt. If Jenna gets hurt, then we'll address it.

[Connor Rogers]

Then Aiden o' Connell's out for like close to two months with an injury. So they just needed some depth in that quarterback. So that's why Kenny Pickett is now a Raider.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Adam Schefter reports that the Titans, by.

[Connor Rogers]

The way, though, like, don't feel bad for Kenny Pickett, though. Like, he went from sitting on the bench in Cleveland to now sitting on the bench in Las Vegas. Like, if you're gonna sit around not doing anything, you'd rather be in Vegas.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Not the worst thing.

[Matthew Berry]

Well, I know Matty loves Las Vegas.

[Connor Rogers]

I do.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

You do. You do well in Vegas.

[Connor Rogers]

I do. You guys have been in Vegas.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Yes. You do extremely well in Vegas. I don't give you a lot of credit. But that is something I will give you credit.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Tajie Spears, who's been dealing with a high ankle sprain for the entire month, really, he's spotted in a walking boot this weekend, as per Adam Schefter. He'll start the season on ir. He will miss the first four games at a minimum, by the way. Right now, guys, Tony Pollard is being taken as RB22 in redrafts behind James Conner, David Montgomery, RJ Harvey.

[Connor Rogers]

So you're on the. You're on the Fantasy Life Plus.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Yeah, I'm getting all the ADP projections.

[Connor Rogers]

All the ADP from Fantasy Life plus, by the way, just.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

I live on Fantasy Life Plus.

[Connor Rogers]

Right. I. It's. It's an unbelievable tool.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

I am Fantasy Life.

[Connor Rogers]

There you go.

[Matthew Berry]

It's his town.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah, it is your town. So we ended that in a second. But yeah, I mean, like, yeah, Tony Pollard in the game, in games in which he's played at least 60% of the snaps, which obviously he's going to do with Tajie Spears now banged up. He gets over 28 touches a game, gets an almost 13% target share. It's basically a top 10 running running back. He's basically a borderline top 10. And we now he's like, he's probably like a top 10, top 12ish running back. And on what we think is going to be a better offense in Tennessee this year with Cam Ward under center. And now Tony Pollard's going to miss it. I'm sorry, Tajie Spears is going to miss now at least the first four weeks. So Tony Pollard is really interesting. There's a scenario which Taja Spears has dealt with this that was one of the concerns about coming out of college, you know, in terms of sort of his injury history. Right.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Weird medical. There's something long term with his. Or something like that doesn't exist. But he can play through it right now. But it's just. Yeah, he's got medical concerns, but there's.

[Connor Rogers]

There's a. We don't know if it's going to last if he's immediately. Only if it's going to be only four games. High ankle can.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

High ankle can go for a while for sure.

[Connor Rogers]

And so two things. Number one is I suspect the Titans make a move here. Among some of the cuts, they'll. They'll sign a veteran. But Tony Pollard's got a chance to take this job and no pun intended, run with it. You know, it's a new offense, it's a new look with Cam Ward Tony Pollard is just great and goes back to being Tony Pollard from the Dallas Cowboys a couple years ago. I don't see a scenario where they're just suddenly like, no, no, no. We need to. If you're crushing and the Titans are playing well, then why are you going to suddenly give Tajie Spears, like, a ton of work?

[Matthew Berry]

Certainly rather have him than David Montgomery or RJ Harvey.

[Connor Rogers]

Run. Yeah.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Get personalized fantasy football insights based on your league settings. With Fantasy Life plus, your league is unique. Your advice should be too. Head to FantasyLife.com and use code ROTO20 for 20% off. Look at that interface.

[Connor Rogers]

Yeah. So, right, these are our projections that you can sort of see and you can check out. You see your scoring system right there. You go down. Hey, I want to just do the scoring projections on the Texans. Oh, Jordan Mixon's going to miss. What's the projections? Let's change it. Okay. Oh, now we see Nick Chubb. His projections come up. So you can check all this out depending on whatever your scoring system is. But here's the thing. If you go to FantasyLife.com you can use the promo code. Code Matthew 20, Connor 20 or J20. They're all 20.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

You got 20.

[Connor Rogers]

All promo. No, all promo codes are 20% off.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

I was ready for J5.

[Connor Rogers]

Right. It is literally now just a popularity contest. So go to FantasyLife.com and I will report back which promo code got used the most. Whether it is J20, Connor 20, or Matthew [e-mail] 20% off. Fantasy Life Plus. It's an unbelievable tool. Tools. I should say. Like it's. It's. It's more. They can shake a stick at all. Personalized.

[Matthew Berry]

Don't use that one again.

[Connor Rogers]

I might. Right? As we say, your league is unique, your advice should be, too. You can also use the promo code ROTO20.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Producer Steven likes that one a lot. I'm more of a Connor 20 guy.

[Connor Rogers]

I understand. I'm a. I'm a Matthew 20 guy, but there may be some evil J fans out there that want J20.

[Matthew Berry]

J20 wins. I'll grow a James Harden style beard.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

There we go. Go. You heard it here first.

[Matthew Berry]

Or die trying.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

All right, we're taking our last break. We got last call. Coming up next, we're picking who will win the NFC South. The bloodbath that is the NFC South.

[Connor Rogers]

I don't mean to interrupt your meal.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

But I love Geico's fast and friendly claim service.

[Connor Rogers]

Well, that's how Geico gets 97% customer satisfaction.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Yeah. I'll let you get back to your food.

[Connor Rogers]

So are you just gonna watch me get more than just savings? Get more with Geico.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

DraftKings is the official daily fantasy partner of the NFL. And right now, all Pick Six customers can play free for share of DraftKings biggest bag ever. Hit all six picks for your cut of a million dollars or more. Just download the pick six app and use promo code FFHH when you sign up. Ride the upside. With pick six, the crown is yours. I don't think that's in there, Jay.

[Connor Rogers]

The ride the upside.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Ride the upside all the way to the odds of who will win NFC South. The Bucs, rightfully so, are minus 115. I'm not brave enough to pick anyone else. Are you guys?

[Matthew Berry]

I would have said falcons if Caitlin McGarry didn't go down. I think that's gonna be a big problem for them. I'll take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at minus 115. I think they play the Falcons in Week 1, so it's gonna shape a lot. But I think the Bucks get it done.

[Connor Rogers]

I do, too. Unfortunately. I don't like to. I don't like to take the favorite. I don't like to agree with Jay, but I have to in both cases here because I do think Tampa Bay ends up winning this division. I just think they're. I think they're too good and there's too many flaws with the other teams.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

I could argue minus 115 is actually a nice price.

[Matthew Berry]

Yeah, I think it should be more.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

So afraid of the minus number, but it's the Bucs in an awful division.

[Matthew Berry]

Minus 135 type of range. Yeah, they're the best team. And their defense is going to be better this year. Just going to survive the first four weeks without Tristan Wolfson Godwin, and then they're all right.

[Connor Rogers]

By the way, Mako Bukas to the. To the rescue.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Our marathon chap has chimed in, by the way.

[Matthew Berry]

He's.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

He's starting to sweat this. Maybe he made promises a little bit too big for his.

[Connor Rogers]

Clark Brady.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

Clark Brady said my fiance is already so mad.

[Matthew Berry]

As she should be. Yeah, that's a good sign for your impending marriage.

[Connor Rogers]

No, listen, Clark, this is awesome because, like, here's the thing. Like, hey, hey, honey. This is what you say, honey, this is till death do us part, for better, for worse, and this is part of the worst. You know what I mean? And so before we walk down the aisle and say, I do. This is a test. This is a test of our love. A test of your commitment to me and our marriage.

[Matthew Berry]

Yes.

[Connor Rogers]

So there you go.

[Matthew Berry]

Test of eternity.

[Connor Rogers]

Yes. 100%. It's not all you know.

[Evil Jay Croucher]

I wish you well, Clark.

[Connor Rogers]

Roses. Good luck, Clarks. Hang tough, brother. Closing time. You don't have to go home. You can't stay here. For Jay and Connor, I'm Matthew. Peace out.