Fantasy Football Busts, Values & League Winners! | Red, White & Boom (July 4th Edition: Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today – “Fantasy Football Busts, Values & League Winners! | Red, White & Boom (July 4th Edition)”

Date: July 2, 2026
Hosts & Analysts: Adam Aizer (host), Dave Richard, Jacob Gibbs, Heath Cummings

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Episode Overview

This special July 4th edition centers around the “Red, White & Boom” theme, with each analyst sharing fantasy football players to avoid at cost (Red), draft at their value (White), and league-winning upside picks (Boom). The crew digs into recent trends, controversial opinions, advanced stats, and debates the outlooks for polarizing players heading into 2026 draft season. They back up their arguments with both statistical deep-dives and real football context, making this a must-listen for drafters eyeing an edge.

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Segment Breakdown & Key Insights

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1. Red, White & Boom Explanation (03:17)

Adam explains the episode’s core bit:

• Red: "Pump the brakes—player to avoid or fade at cost."
• White: "ADP is fair, solid value—target if they fall."
• Boom: "Light the fuse—player you believe will smash expectations and win leagues."

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2. Dave Richard’s Picks (04:00)

Red: Breece Hall (NYJ RB)

• ADP: 30th overall, RB14
• Reasoning: Hall’s 2025 usage and production disappointed (13 PPR per game on heavy volume).
• Frank Reich’s history of using multiple backs limits upside. New playcaller, new touches split incoming, offensive quality in question.
• Quote:

  “This is a Round 3 pick for a guy who wasn’t good last year…He will start the season well...but in the second half, this guy is going to cost you some fantasy weeks." — Dave Richard (05:00)

White: Parker Washington (JAX WR)

• ADP: 66th overall, WR32
• Consensus: Neutral, appropriate price. Not much disagreement from panel.

Boom: Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE TE)

• ADP: 95th overall, TE8
• Reasoning:
  • Demonstrated “special” stats, notably tied rookie CMC for most receptions with 5+ YAC by a sub-22 player since 2015.
  • Cleveland offense and Monken’s TE history provide opportunity.
  • Quote:

    “11.7 PPR/game on 6.7 targets; he could finish as a top-5 tight end. That’s an amazing value." — Dave Richard (12:09)

Debate:

• Heath: Slightly more skeptical, notes Stefanski/Petzig shifts and target competition.
• Jacob: Still bullish at value—“By far the most talented player you can get after pick 100.” (15:23)

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3. Heath Cummings’ Picks (20:29)

Heath picks all from “round five” to test tier/value perception.

Red: Mike Evans (SF WR)

• ADP: 54th overall
• Skepticism: Age (33), hamstring history, new team risk, target and injury questions in 49ers’ loaded offense.
• Quote:

  “You’re banking on him having a bounceback year. I don’t want to spend a top-50 pick on someone who I might have for 11 games.” — Dave Richard (23:55)

Counterpoint:

• Jacob and Adam: Disagree—Evans’ separation and upside in Shanahan offense keeps their confidence high.

White: Rome Odunze (CHI WR)

• ADP: 58th overall, WR29
• Reasoning: Loaded with upside; target share, end zone looks, and good system—yet floor concerns due to catch rate and developing chemistry with rookie QB Caleb Williams.
• Key Stat:

  “He has the 9th most end zone targets per game of any WR over last two years, just behind the league’s alphas.” — Adam Aizer (26:28)

Boom: Quinshon Judkins (CLE RB)

• ADP: 54th overall, RB23
• Support: Browns’ improved line, likely run-heavy split, and year two leap after worst-in-league yards-before-contact in 2025.
• Quote:

  “He has a chance to score 10+ touchdowns every year.” — Heath Cummings (27:39)

• Jacob gives statistical context—Judkins among four highly talented RBs in terrible offenses (Breece, Judkins, HN, Love):

  “Fact that Judkins is below them in cost is relevant…he might be near their talent level” (30:32)

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4. Jacob Gibbs’ Picks (32:14)

Red: Trey McBride (ARI TE)

• Reasoning: Insane 2025 route volume “not replicable”; per-route efficiency wasn’t elite, volume regression risk.
• Stat:

  "McBride ran 694 routes last year—121 more than the next closest TE. The most in the true media database." (34:29)

• Cautions that he’s more accumulator than separator or explosive after catch.

White: Kenneth Walker (KC RB)

• ADP: RB10
• Deep-Dive: Focuses on impact of new OC Eric Bieniemy and historical improvement in run efficiency.
• Notes Chiefs’ O-line strength and potential for run consistency boost.
• Quote:

  “If [Bieniemy] can do for Walker what Philly’s run game did for Swift—turn a boom-bust guy into a consistent weapon—Walker’s ceiling in KC is huge.” — Jacob Gibbs (39:30)

• Heath agrees: “Early in his career, Swift was more of a Walker-style home run guy. I think Bieniemy could have that same positive impact.” (41:24)

Boom: A.J. Brown (NE WR)

• ADP: (early Round 2)

• Reasoning:

  • “By far best passer he’s played with in his career,”
  • Elite under-center and per-route metrics, massive anticipated market share.
  • Minimal target competition.
  • Quote:

    “AJ Brown might be just one of the best players in the league and we don’t really know it…he’s been in low-volume offenses...This could be awesome.” — Jacob Gibbs (46:19)

  • “First-read target rate correlates even more strongly than total target rate to next year’s production…Brown excels here.” (49:28+)

• Skepticism from Heath:
  “I hope he’s still AJ Brown…there are injury questions and the Patriots have not recently been high in WR targets. But he’s much younger and better than an Evans-type fade.” (54:18)

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5. Adam Aizer’s Picks (55:18)

Red: Caleb Williams (CHI QB)

• ADP: 72nd overall, QB6
• Reasoning: Loves the player, but believes the ADP is “in his own tier”—too high versus similarly-productive but cheaper QBs (Purdy, Stafford, Mahomes, Dart).

  “Not willing to take him two rounds ahead of all those guys.” (56:20 & 60:14)

White: Tee Higgins (CIN WR)

• ADP: 38th overall, WR19
• Reasoning: Easy value check: finished as top 16 WR per game in four of last five years (one season discounted for Burrow health). No massive upside, but rock-solid floor.

Boom: Josh Downs (IND WR)

• ADP: 97th overall, WR44
• Reasoning:
  • When Downs runs 78%+ of routes, consistently posts 19+ PPR points, yet value is depressed due to poor QB play and points volatility.
  • Potential to be the “steal” as Indy’s slot receiver, especially with Pittman departure.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Dave on Breece Hall:
  “I still think they’re not going to score a lot of points…He let us down last year. If I’m drafting someone in round three for 13 PPR/game, I think I’m drafting wrong.” (09:00)
• Jacob on Harold Fannin:
  “He’s always fighting for more yards. He’s so good, man.” (13:01)
• Heath on Rome Odunze:
  “There’s a low floor, but a high ceiling. This feels just about right.” (25:24)
• Adam on Josh Downs:
  “Honestly, every time I watch Josh Downs, I am amazed at how he just destroys cornerbacks, gets open, and makes people look stupid…he will have his best year.” (58:44)
• Jacob on A.J. Brown:
  “He dominates target shares…goes from playing next to DeVonta Smith, who’s a legit WR1, to Romeo Doubs. There’s no question who the WR alpha is now.” (49:28)
• Lighthearted moments:
  The recurring “cowboy hat” bit, Adam and Dave’s soccer (“football”) rant (17:38–20:25), and the upcoming CBS fantasy tennis grudge match plans.

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Timestamps for Key Sections

• Red, White & Boom rules explained: 03:17
• Dave's Picks Breakdown: 04:07
  • Breece Hall analysis: 04:39
  • Parker Washington: 06:13
  • Harold Fannin debate: 10:22–16:00
• Soccer (Football) Rant: 17:38–20:25
• Heath's Picks Breakdown: 20:29
  • Mike Evans debate: 22:59
  • Rome Odunze analysis: 24:38
  • Judkins deep-dive: 27:39
• Jacob's Picks Breakdown: 32:14
  • Trey McBride skepticism: 33:45
  • Kenneth Walker’s upside: 39:39
  • A.J. Brown “Boom” case: 45:32
• Adam’s Picks: 55:18
  • Caleb Williams ADP discussion: 56:20; 60:14
  • Tee Higgins: 57:20
  • Josh Downs: 58:44

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Episode Tone

Friendly, in-depth, playful banter, data-driven analysis with strong panelist opinions—packed with actionable fantasy takeaways and a dash of holiday fun.

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Summary Takeaways

• The “Red, White & Boom” framework yielded strong debate—especially on Breece Hall, Harold Fannin, Mike Evans, and A.J. Brown.
• The panel is split between chasing upside and avoiding risk; advanced metrics and coaching context guide much of the conversation.
• Some players are consensus values (e.g., Tee Higgins, Rome Odunze), while others are lightning rods for debate (e.g., Hall, McBride, Judkins, Downs).
• Listener takeaway: The show arms you with arguments and context, not just names—perfect for fantasy drafters wanting to back up their convictions at the table.

Transcript

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[Heath Cummings]

This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports.

[Jacob Gibbs]

What a play.

[Adam Mazer]

Can you believe this? No, I can't.

[Dave Richard]

It's time to dominate your fantasy league.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Off to the races.

[Adam Mazer]

And he stays on his feet. This is gonna go the distance.

[Heath Cummings]

Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.

[Adam Mazer]

Well, howdy everybody. Welcome to the show. Fantasy football. Today your holiday. Ed, I don't know how long I can keep this stupid hat on because it's messing with my headphones. But it's 4th of July almost. It's 2nd of July. It's our last show before the 4th of July. We have an awesome topic for you. It's called red, white and boom. And Jacob Gibbs is here. And Jacob, we had an email sent around said, hey everybody, tomorrow's topic, Red, white and boom. Who are your players? And you wrote red, white and blue. So you need to honor the topic, Jacob, or you're out.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Sorry about that. Wow. Yeah, I definitely do not have the commitment to the bit that you do. Respect.

[Adam Mazer]

I told Thomas I had a hat for the occasion. I got it at party city like eight years ago and I wear it every 4th of July. Oh, what's up, Dave?

[Dave Richard]

Looks like the kind of hat that a 50 year old woman with liposuction would wear.

[Adam Mazer]

Why liposuction?

[Dave Richard]

Just, you know, that plastic surgery type of profile.

[Adam Mazer]

Okay.

[Dave Richard]

I don't think someone would, you know, I, I don't know. I just, I'm thinking of, you know, what I'm thinking of is like, you know, the woman that's got the, the big lips. That's not even liposuction.

[Heath Cummings]

You need to really stop, Dave.

[Dave Richard]

That's what it looks like.

[Adam Mazer]

You okay?

[Dave Richard]

Thank you.

[Heath Cummings]

Thank you.

[Dave Richard]

Andy and sick Dave.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Nailed it.

[Dave Richard]

Okay.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah. Entirely inappropriate starting the show with a boom.

[Adam Mazer]

Someone says, yeah, fireworks are a waste of money. I'll remind you where, where I grew up in Florida. You can go to a store. Do they still have Neptune?

[Dave Richard]

Yes.

[Adam Mazer]

It's like going to Walmart for fireworks and you can buy industrial strength fireworks, basically. It's insane. It is insane. I don't know how it's still around,

[Heath Cummings]

but there's, there's Fireworks for sale at the Publix around the corner.

[Dave Richard]

You can buy them from a guy on the corner in a tent, but

[Adam Mazer]

they go up in the sky and they go.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, they go up in the sky and they go. That's what fireworks do.

[Adam Mazer]

Not all of them.

[Dave Richard]

That's what four year olds say they do.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Did you know that fireworks are illegal in Hawaii? I found that out yesterday from my girlfriend.

[Adam Mazer]

Like illegal for you and me to purchase or illegal?

[Jacob Gibbs]

I just don't think they sell them. You have to bring them in.

[Adam Mazer]

I don't think you sell them in New York, but I could be wrong. All right. Anyway. Red. Here's the explainer for today's show. Red, white and boom. Red means pump the brakes. This is a player we're avoiding at cost. We're using fantasy pro as adp. Ppr, White, Fair. Adp. You're going to draft this player if he falls to you and boom. Light the fuse. A player you think is going to smash expectations and could win you leagues. So red, white and boom. Red. Pump the brakes too early. White. ADP is fair.

[Dave Richard]

Boom.

[Adam Mazer]

We think he's going to, you know, hit smash expectations. I'm not going to say. I'm going to yell boom every time.

[Dave Richard]

All right, I think you should.

[Adam Mazer]

Let's get started with Dave's Red. White and boom. Just run through who they are real quick.

[Dave Richard]

Red. Breeze Hall, White. Parker Washington and Bo. Harold Fannin Jr. Let's go.

[Adam Mazer]

Resolve. 30th overall RB 14. Parker Washington. That's the white selection. 66 overall wide receiver, 32.

[Jacob Gibbs]

And boom.

[Adam Mazer]

Harold Fannin Jr. 95th overall tight end.

[Dave Richard]

8.

[Adam Mazer]

All right, go ahead. Kick it off with Breeze Hall.

[Dave Richard]

Well, we already saw it. Last year he averaged 17.4 touches per game, three targets per game, averaged 13 PPR points per game. And now we're just expecting everything to be cool. His ADP on fantasy pros is 28th. It's 30th in our fantasy. FFT. Fans only. ADP. This is a round three pick for a guy who wasn't good last year. Coaching staff changed. They have a new play caller. He's detrimental to Breeze Hall. Frank Reich is the guy. He has habitually used multiple running backs. He's only had a running back get over 15 PPR points per game three times in 10 years. As a play caller. If you lower that to 13. Okay, great. It's four times in 10 years. This offense isn't going to be any it. I don't think it'll be much better with Geno Smith. At quarterback, you can talk about the offensive line all day long. I still think they're not going to score a lot of points. I don't like that. He had a bunch of touches last year and didn't do well. Now he's going to get a bunch of touches this year and do better. Why? I don't get it. And I'll even, I will even say this. He will start the season well. Takes on Tennessee in week one. The schedule, the first half of the year isn't really that bad, but in the second half of the year, this guy is going to cost you some fantasy weeks. He's not going to be that good. I don't think he's worth a pick in round three. I think he's worth a pick in round five.

[Adam Mazer]

Oh, round five. All right, so that's Breeze hall as pump the brakes. Let me just ask Heath and Jacob, do you disagree with any of these selections? Breeze hall as the Red, White, Parker Washington. Boom. Harold Fannin Jr.

[Heath Cummings]

I disagree with everything.

[Adam Mazer]

Really?

[Dave Richard]

Wow. Let's go.

[Heath Cummings]

No, I don't think. I disagree with. I, I don't have a strong opinion on Parker Washington. So I guess white fits perfectly. It's just kind of a shoulder shrug emoji for me on Parker Washington. As of right now. I, I don't. I think it's saying it's a little

[Adam Mazer]

bit

[Heath Cummings]

inaccurate maybe to say Breeze hall got a lot of touches last year and didn't do well. Like he was at 13.2 fantasy points per game. That's pick 30. What's that? Probably RB15.

[Adam Mazer]

Well, last year he was already 21 per game.

[Heath Cummings]

No, I'm saying this where he's being drafted right now.

[Adam Mazer]

Yeah. Pick 30. RB14.

[Heath Cummings]

RB. RB14. So like, yeah, he's always had a hard time scoring touchdowns, but the two seasons prior to this it was 9 and 8. Last year it was 5 on more touches. I think we probably see him more involved in the passing game if Braylon Allen stays healthy, because Braylon Allen maybe takes a little bit off of his plate in terms of rushing and then Isaiah Davis doesn't have to take some of the passing downs because Hull's being used so much as a rusher. He's a guy who has shown us an insane ability in the passing game. 6.6 yards per target for his career, 7.3 last year. Maybe they're just so dumb that they're going to say, no, we really shouldn't throw it to Breeze hall more than 48 times in 16 games. But I don't really believe that. I think it was just the roles got swapped a little bit when Allen went down and he had to play a portion of the year with Justin Fields, who doesn't really throw to running backs a lot. I'm. I'm. I have him ranked pretty much exactly where he's being drafted. He would have been white for me.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Okay. I might actually be lower on hall than Dave. I've got him at running back 22, so him and DeAndre Swift are basically just flipped for me. Looks like consensus has Breeze around running back 16 and Swift at running back 22. I have Swift at running back 16. I think that Breeze probably finishes higher than running back 22. I think the stuff Heath said there makes sense. Him and Travis Hn are two players who I've used similarly where I'm just not drafting them very much because I think that their upside is pretty limited and I end up gravitating more towards a bit of a riskier pick where whether that's special tooting or maybe somebody like Cam Scatterboo who I think have more upside, I've got a tough time getting there with Breeze hall in this offense.

[Dave Richard]

Just for the record, since we're looking at career numbers, Gino has a career running back target rate of 17.6%. Certainly more of a downfield thrower than a check down guy. I think that hurts all the running backs in New York and I think Isaiah Davis is going to be the passing downs back for the Jets. He was for a big chunk of last year. It is absolutely the tendency of Frank Reich to use multiple running backs, one on running downs, one on passing downs. And now Aaron Glenn wants him to use Braylon Allen as well. Could you imagine if Breece hall is a trap back and that they use Allen, who's bigger and more physical than Breeze hall at the goal line and they use Isaiah Davis on passing downs and he's the one that's getting two and a half targets per game and Breeze hall isn't. It's coaching malpractice. And I agree with Heath that Breeze hall is absolutely talented. He's awesome as a pass catcher. But the coaching staff needs to like get hit upside the head and say listen man, you've got this talent. You just paid use them. And so far they are telegraphing that they are not going to make him a workhorse. They are not going to give him the type of work that a featureback has. Except he kind of already had that last year and he let us down. And if I'M drafting somebody in round three with the idea that they're going to get me 13 PPR points per game. I I think I'm drafting wrong. I, I, I'm looking for upside to do a lot better than 13 PPR points per game in round three.

[Heath Cummings]

Okay. Also just to the Braylon Allen point, the the first four weeks I think it was when Braylon Allen was healthy. He was averaging about 13 rush attempts and 5 targets per game. After Braylon Allen got hurt, the rush Attempts went up to 16 per game. He fell down to two targets per game.

[Adam Mazer]

So let's talk about Parker Washington and or Harold Fannin Jr. Dave, why is Harold Fan Jr. Your your boom play?

[Dave Richard]

Harold Fannin is a boom because he was awesome last year and even though The Browns drafted two wide receivers in the top 40, I don't think it's going to really pull too many targets away from him. 11.7 PPR points per game on 6.7 targets per game. He really showed last year and Heath was first to talk about this with Harold Fannin and which is why I'm surprised that Heath is so low on Harold Fannin. He's really athletic and he proved it in college. He had the opportunity to do it early on in the year when David Najoka was healthy for the Browns and he really never let up on that role. Now you're telling me that and I love Casey Concepcion, but you're telling me that Casey Concepcion and Denzel Boston are going to completely suck away targets from Harold Fannin and leave Fannin with four targets per game. I don't think that that's likely at all. Deshaun Watson has a career target per career target rate to tight ends of 20.2%. It's actually 23.4% in his two years in Cleveland. If he's the guy, I don't mind him looking for Harold Fannin who probably knows exactly where he needs to be and can do something with the ball after the catch time and time again. And Todd Monkins track record with tight ends is actually really good. You go back to 2024 and 2025 with Baltimore 30.2% tight end target rate under Todd Monkin it was 23.1% in 2023. Earlier than that in his career it wasn't as good. But I think Monkin is realized especially for a quarterback that might need to be eased in to NFL action or in the case of Shooter Sanders, a quarterback that's still working to find his way, that a tight end can be his best friend in the middle of the field and he's got a great

[Jacob Gibbs]

one in Harold Fannin.

[Dave Richard]

I see his ADP that this really baffled me. On fantasy pros, his ADP is 103rd overall. That's an amazing value for somebody who could finish as a top five tight end.

[Adam Mazer]

I got him at 95th overall.

[Dave Richard]

That's still really good. I would take him round six in full ppr.

[Adam Mazer]

Yeah, tight end ADP is. Is interesting on. On fantasy pros it's like tight end six is Kyle Pitts at 92. Tight end seven is the Porta at 95. Tight end eight is fan and also at 95. So tight end five is crafted at 82. So it's a long wait after Warren Warren at 64 and then it's like craft 82 and then you get into the mid 90s with Laporta, Fannin and Pitts. Laporta and Fannin.

[Dave Richard]

I love that value for all those guys.

[Adam Mazer]

Yeah.

[Jacob Gibbs]

So I thought I would be white on Fanon. I thought I was right in line. But at that range, I definitely comfortable taking a shot on Fanon. There's so many reasons to be concerned obviously about the. The Browns of it all. And then if you want, you know, the new. The new pass catchers coming in might affect him. We might see some different types of personnel packages where he gets less playing time than last year, but at that range, it's pretty much just upside. And why I'm comfortable taking him is I really think he could be a special player. This my favorite stat on fan. There's so many amazing stats that are just like this guy looks like he could be historically good is he tied Christian McCaffrey rookie season Christian McCaffrey for the most receptions with more than 5 yards gained after initial contact with a defender for any player under the age of 22 dating back to 2015. So that's 11 years of data that we have available there. Fannin and CMC tied to the very top. Above rookie season Jamar Chase above rookie season Saquon Barkley. In terms of gains of 5 or more yards after initial contact. He's always fighting for more yards. He's. He's so good, man. Yeah.

[Adam Mazer]

You know, you mentioned the desean Watson thing and him throwing to his tight ends. But it is worth noting, like David Najoka was pretty horrible when DeSean Watson was the quarterback. I mean, in three years, let's see. 387 routes. David Najoku averaged 1.22 yards per out run with DeSean Watson I that was

[Heath Cummings]

one of the things is like, Watson's tight end target rate looks okay in the league context and looks pretty miserable in the Stefanski context. He was kind of the one quarterback under Stefanski that did not elevate tight ends. And so I think part of it is I'm trying to be a little bit consistent in that if I think that Kevin Stefanski and Drew Petzig matter for Sam laporta and Kyle Pitts, then I have to think that losing them matters a little bit for Trey McBride and Harold Fannin. I do think Concepcion and Boston make this receiving core, especially if DeSean Watson's the quarterback, more appealing for quarterbacks to throw to. If Shador wins this job in camp, then I'm going to give Fannin a boost because they've got that connection already. Shador threw it to him 33 of the time last year. I do agree with everything Jacob said. Obviously, I love Harold Fan in the place.

[Jacob Gibbs]

I was like, bro, it's foe. I feel like we're overthinking this. He's literally just like by far the most talented player you can get after pick 100. Like, it's not who's even in that conversation.

[Heath Cummings]

I don't have a problem.

[Dave Richard]

I mean, Holmes is going around.

[Heath Cummings]

I'm not sure I see the boom is what I was saying. Like, I, I, I think I probably would have had Harold Fannin as a white also.

[Adam Mazer]

All right, we gotta take a break and then we can talk about Parker Washington or we can move on to Heath's Red, White and boom. And we'll be right back. And also, I see some people talking about soccer in the chat. You know, soccer, you, you doing so well. You were doing so well. And then every time, you know, you just remind us of something within you. That is so stupid. Idiot Soccer. We'll be right back on Fantasy football today. You know, we watch. I'm not going to ever call you football. If you want me to think about calling you football, then you need to man up and watch actual football where guys are beating the crap out of each other and maybe getting a penalty, but not getting kicked out of a game and not able to be replaced and then suspended for the next game because they accidentally stepped on someone's ankle. Are you kidding me? Like, the whole red card thing is so punitive and so unfair. You want to kick a guy out of a game, fine, let them replace the guy. Playing 10 on 11 is such a stupid rule. It just changes the game so drastically. And if that's going to be the end result. And obviously it's not like I just learned this yesterday, by the way. I knew the red card rule, but if that's going to be the end result, you better really do something bad to get a red card. And he did not do anything even close to something that would warrant getting kicked out of the game, not being able to be replaced for the rest of the game, and being suspended for at least one more game in what is now one of the most important games in U.S. soccer history. And they don't have arguably their best player because he accidentally stepped on someone's ankle. What a joke. You are soccer. You are not football. Football is a real man's game.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Wow.

[Adam Mazer]

USA said by a man wearing a

[Dave Richard]

red, white and blue star cowboy hat.

[Heath Cummings]

I think. I think that's kind of the argument for. From. From football fans, though, is that you guys just should have chosen a different name because you created something different from our sport.

[Jacob Gibbs]

It.

[Heath Cummings]

You're right. They're not the same thing. But it's not like soccer's trying to call themselves football because of what football is and they want to be.

[Adam Mazer]

No, soccer already. Was football the wrong part of the argument here? Forget about the. Forget about the football semantics. That was so weak and so lame.

[Dave Richard]

It was a terrible call by the referee, who I. I would imagine he would try and take it back or at least think about taking it back.

[Adam Mazer]

He didn't make the call. It was the video. It was the review guy.

[Dave Richard]

That's the person who would probably wish they could take it back.

[Heath Cummings]

I just don't. I mean, I'm not a soccer guy. None of us are. But I do think that, like, there's like stepping with your cleats on the player's Achilles, nowhere close to the ball, while challenging, is quite often a red card.

[Adam Mazer]

Yeah, but. But like you, you know, use your judgment. He obviously didn't do it on purpose. They were battling for position and he just came down that way. And. And also, I just don't. I do not understand the concept of not letting them replace the player.

[Heath Cummings]

Oh, I thought the 10 v. V. 11 was like, what made that game so great. No, it was going to be a really boring second half. And then all of a sudden it's like, oh, it might actually be a game.

[Adam Mazer]

It's a dumb rule.

[Jacob Gibbs]

It's.

[Dave Richard]

You imagine that in the NFL in any sport. Yeah.

[Adam Mazer]

It's insane.

[Heath Cummings]

It can happen in basketball. I think if. If you have too many people fell out.

[Dave Richard]

Okay.

[Heath Cummings]

It happened in Hooers.

[Adam Mazer]

Whatever. I. They had six guys on their team.

[Heath Cummings]

My four on the floor.

[Adam Mazer]

My four on the floor.

[Heath Cummings]

And I think he had it. I think he had a. He had a guy he could have played.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Yeah.

[Adam Mazer]

He was disciplining his own player by not allowing him to come back in. Very different scenario here. All right. Sorry. In order for this show to move on here, anybody with a strong opinion on. Yeah, no one agrees with Heath. Get out of here. By the way, I have some video evidence today of an NFL player strongly disagreeing with Heath that we're going to show later on.

[Heath Cummings]

Do they know what I said?

[Adam Mazer]

Oh, yeah.

[Dave Richard]

Oh, yeah.

[Adam Mazer]

Anyway, Parker Washington. Yeah, let's go. Let's go over to Heath. Let's go over to Heath's red, white and boom here. We'll talk about Parker Washington on a different show. I'm sorry about that. Heath, who do you have as 10

[Dave Richard]

minutes on soccer, 0 minutes on Parker Washington?

[Adam Mazer]

Who do you. It's topical. Who do you have as red, white and boom?

[Heath Cummings]

So I went with a round five theme. Chose three players from the same round for a red, white and boom. My red will surprise no one. It's Mike Evans at 54th overall, I believe. Although I'm not sure because you also put 54th overall for Quinte on Judkins, and I don't think they're being picked with the same pick.

[Adam Mazer]

They are 53 and a half and 54.

[Heath Cummings]

Okay. Quinchon Judkins is my boom at RB 23 and 54 overall. And Roma Dun is my white at 58th overall.

[Adam Mazer]

Okay, so Evans too early. Romo dun just right. Quinton Judkins, boom. Great value. Could smash expectations. Yeah. Do we have these screenshots here of. All right, listen, I want to show you Mike Evans running some routes last game of the year. Okay. Look how open he's getting. And he knows you're dogging him, so he's going.

[Heath Cummings]

Does he?

[Adam Mazer]

Yeah, you know he knows, man. Look, it's in the. These are quotes. I didn't make these up. It's a sup, Heath. I'm wide open. Look at me just abusing this guy for a 13 yard game. Okay, let's get to the next screenshot. Look how opening he gets a pass interference on him and he still beats the guy for big game. And he knew. There's no way tomato is your favorite fruit. Heath, that makes no sense. He knows your terrible take se. Okay, all right. So he's open here. Same game. How do you like me now, Heath? This is. This is just screenshots of Mike Evans getting open, still being good. Baker Mayfield threw an interception on this, on this play, by the way. So this was just, you know, me having a little fun, but I believe

[Jacob Gibbs]

he was wide receiver one and fantasy point status charting for separation last year.

[Adam Mazer]

Wow. Yeah, well, and they saw the quotes too. They know what's up. But anyway, go ahead. So. So. Well, Jacob and Dave, what do you strongly agree or disagree with here? Pump the brakes on Mike Evans. Just right for Romo Dunes, a boom pick for Quinton Judkins. They're all going around 55th overall.

[Jacob Gibbs]

I strongly disagree on Evans. He's one of a handful of receivers who I have like, way above consensus among my top 30 with Parker Washington being one of the others too. So fantasy pro shows you like plus or minus relative to consensus. They're both plus five. I've got Evans at wide receiver 20. I think that, you know, obviously the upside is clear with Kyle Shanahan, but if you want more detail on that. Dan Schneider and I did about a 15 minute breakdown on beyond the Box Score, like an individual video on Evans that goes into all the historical context and just how good it could be.

[Adam Mazer]

Dave, anything from you.

[Dave Richard]

I just don't love the fact that a 33 year old receiver with a history of hamstring issues is now going to be relied upon in this 49ers offense to stay healthy. I think he's a great fit for that offense based on his route running. You're, you're, you're banking on him being. You're banking on him having a bounceback year. He had one game all year with 15 plus PPR in 2025. So I'm, I'm really hoping that he can step up in a major way and stay on the field and be that number one alpha for the 49ers. They haven't had that guy at wide receiver in a while. Unless there's somebody. I'm just totally blanking on who's been that guy for them.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Dave, where do you think Baker Mayfield ranked on catchable target rate out of 39 qualified quarterbacks on throws of 10 or more air yards last year?

[Dave Richard]

Probably dead last. Oh, you know what, that makes sense.

[Jacob Gibbs]

So he was probably 34th.

[Dave Richard]

30. Okay. That's, you know, I, I didn't expect Baker to be good. Also, I. How many of those games? It doesn't even matter. Who the hell cares how many games Evans played? I think everybody knows what the red flags are with him and taking him. I'm a little behind ADP on Evans just because I Don't want to. I don't want to spend a top 50ish pick on somebody who I might have for 11 or fewer games and who might not see even like any improvement in target volume in San Francisco. So he might fit into the offense great. But he might also only give us five games next year of like 14 plus PPR, I guess. No, that's not even okay. I'm not okay with that.

[Adam Mazer]

In round five I was going to pick Roma Dunes A as well Heath as the white suggestion here the just right ADP and I need there to be enough separation between him and Luther Burden to justify passing on Luther Burden and I think it's probably about 15 picks or so. It's getting close. Yeah. Obviously the whole foot thing is concerning. You said he's the new normal for him is that the bones in his foot have shifted and he has to kind of get used to it. But wide receiver 29 for Romo dunes a who just got off to a brilliant start last year and had a. I think it was a 23% target share in his first 12 games. So yeah, anyway discuss.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, I think for Rome I, I just. This just feels like the good middle point between this guy with very good pedigree, a very good offensive system and a huge target opportunity and also this guy who if maybe it was just like he got hurt obviously but it the things kind of went downhill before hurt last year and honestly his first two years in the league, if you just look at it in a vacuum, it's a pretty miserable start. He's. He's just not been what we were hoping he would be. He and Caleb cannot get on the same page. He's barely caught half of his targets in his first two years in the league. And some of that's not his fault. Some of it's Caleb's fault because Caleb kind of sprays the ball a little bit but still Caleb Williams also has great pedigree, could take a leap at any moment and Roma Dunze could be his number one wide receiver. So this is kind of that there's. There's a low floor, there's a high ceiling. Round five feels right about right.

[Adam Mazer]

I think what's something that people might forget, including myself, is that you look at the first 12 games of the year. Oduns they had a 23.7 target share. DJ Moore had a 16.6 target share. Alamede Zakias who is no longer on the team had a 14.2% target share. So that was another guy who was getting A decent amount of targets. He was on pace for 77 targets in those 12 games. Of course Burden and Loveland weren't doing much but one thing that I like about Odunze and he's going to have to score touchdowns because he's mentioned his catch rate. His catch rate's around 50% each of the, you know, each of the first two years. He's a high adot guy also good yak so that's cool. Good at yards per catch. He has the 9th most end zone targets per game of any wide receiver over the last two years. And the guys ahead of Odunze are Adams Evans, Marvin Harrison Jr. Deontay Johnson, weird Justin Jefferson, George Pickens, Jamar Chase and he's tied with Drake London 8th most end zone wide targets per game. That's just, that's Caleb's guy. Has been Caleb's guy in the end zone. Judkins as your boom.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, I just, I think we talked about this on a show a couple weeks ago or earlier this week maybe and just like the the two second year running backs that are coming back from major injuries and where they're currently being drafted and, and Scatter is like a round and a half, two rounds ahead of Judkins. I still think Judkins is a better rusher and I think that this is still going to be a very good defense in Cleveland. And if Todd Monkin has and one of the other reasons I'm a little bit concerned about Harold Fannin, I think if Todd Monken has a choice in a game and it stays competitive, we're probably going to get at least a 50% rush rate and they showed last year they believe you can lean on quinch on Judkins in the run game. I'm hopeful the offensive line, there's at least reason to hope the offensive line could be a little bit better than it was last year. That's not a guarantee with the changes that they made and he absolutely has a Chance to score 10 plus touchdowns every year.

[Dave Richard]

They added a fullback in Mike Burton. That's a signal that they want to run the ball more. They're going to put a fullback on the field. I think they love what they've done with their offensive line this off season and yes, you're right, you can't guarantee that it's going to be better but it's going to be really hard to be as bad as it was last year between all the injuries and bad play that they had. I think the Browns deserve props for improving their offensive line and you are right. I think that if it's a close game late, you will see a much closer to 50, 50 pass run rate from the Browns versus when they're, you know, down 10 points in the fourth quarter and they just have to let

[Adam Mazer]

it rip through the air.

[Jacob Gibbs]

I think there's almost no way it can be as bad as it was last year. To your point about the offensive line, if I can share my screen here, Ashton Jinty only averaged 0.06 yards before contact per rush. That's something that we point towards a lot as like, wow, he really had it tough last year. It's going to be better this year, hopefully under Clint Kubiak with the Linderbaum edition. And everything should be better for the Raiders, right? 0.06 or no. 0.6. Ranked 115th out of 115 qualifiers dating back to 2012. If you lower the qualification to 150 or more rushes in a season, Juggins ranks dead last out of 250. He averaged 0.4 yards before contact per rush last year. Insane. I. I did a behind the boxer profile on him and I'm like, this guy's so good. He really might be the best running back from this class. And I still don't know if it's gonna matter. I still don't know if it's gonna matter. Like, I'm not drafting him anywhere. I hate it.

[Adam Mazer]

Oh, wow.

[Dave Richard]

When would you draft him, Jacob?

[Jacob Gibbs]

When would I draft him?

[Dave Richard]

Yeah, what round? Like, I'm okay with him in round four.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Yeah, he reminds me of Tedro McMillan, so it's like, I don't think it's a bad pick necessarily. I feel a little bit more comfortable with McMillan because he doesn't have the serious injury that he was recovering from. But I think most likely this is a young, dependable stud who you're gonna be okay with most weeks, even though the offense is not good. But I do worry a lot about what his realistic ceiling is, which is why I was interested to hear what Heath's case was for him being like the boom player, just because I think the offensive environment is just so limiting. So again, it's. It's kind of like Bree hall, really. There's. To me, there's four running backs who stand out as similar and you could throw scatter boo into this, but I think his role just as a receiver and a red zone threat is a little bit unique. But there's four running backs who stand out as very similar where we know or we feel very convicted that they're supremely talented players, but we're very worried about their offense being like the worst in the whole league. And what do you do with them for Fantasy? And that's Devon Hn, Jeremiah Love, Breeze hall and Quinjot Juggins. I have them ranked in that order. But the fact that Jumpins is like well below them in terms of cost, I think is relevant, you know, because he really might be near that group in terms of talent level. And if things are just a little bit better in year two, then we could see this 18, 20 touches per game be pretty good for Fantasy still, I think.

[Adam Mazer]

Yeah, it just he, you know, he doesn't really catch passes or he didn't last year anyway. Yeah, I think a little bit better with Chadur Sanders. But I don't know, Heath, if you mentioned about Judkins, he has on paper the easiest. Well, the Browns have the easiest schedule in the NFL.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, I think, I mean, I felt better about this take before the Miles Garrett trade, even though I think the Browns made a very good trade with the Miles Garrett trade. But before that, I thought, you know, they're probably going to be more competitive than people think they are. Not because the offense is good. It still could be one of the worst offenses, but I think it's more difficult for it to be one of the worst offenses if they stay in games and just give it to Judkins 22 times a game.

[Adam Mazer]

All right.

[Heath Cummings]

They're just going to keep getting first downs.

[Adam Mazer]

Jacob, you are up. Jacob, why don't you start out, tell us what's coming up on beyond the Box Score.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Sure. Yeah. Thanks. Beyond the Box score we've got right now, we're really focused on all these player profiles. So we're looking at some of the more polarizing players heading into 2026, whether that's these year two players like Junkins or Harold Fannin Jr. Where we don't really know quite what to make of them next year. And we've got some profiles out on them so you can like binge all this, dig into all this throughout the season if you want, and, and. Or this draft season if you want. Find all that on beyond the Box Score. Today, Dan Schneier and I are wearing tank tops and we're going to talk about the most underrated wide receivers. So that's just kind of a for fun show. But we've got a lot of great guests coming on to help us out, get you all ready for draft season for sure. One of them was Rich Rebar, who just does awesome, awesome work and I've got some cool stats from Rich that I want to share with you in reference to my first red player here, which is Trey McBride, which I don't like because I think Trey McBride we talk about talent like he's one of the most talented players in the league for sure. I've got him@titan3. I am drafting Colson Loveland ahead of him. Not that you ever have to make that decision, but I'm, I'm quite nervous about McBride. I thought that Heath's points about same laporta potentially outscoring McBride makes a lot of sense. I I think that that's totally realistic. I wanted to talk about that. You you mentioned the the three tied in usage and from your your conversation with Ryan heath about like Lad McConkey being the next Jackson Smith and Jigba and how that personnel package type stuff could benefit him with Mike McDaniel coming over. So it's not that additional Titans on the field necessarily boosts any specific position. It's more so that just having Titans or fullbacks really simple like having Titans or fullbacks on the field instead of receivers boosts the best players. Not only are those players less likely to draw targets in terms of fullbacks, second and third tight ends and stuff like that, but also those bigger personnel packages are more likely to sell to a defense that a run might be coming. And so the the best play callers, the guys who are really using this well, whether that's Sean McVeigh or Ben Johnson or low key Drew Petzing I really think is underrated. If you want to listen to that play callers episode that we just did with Rich Rebar we talk about petsing a lot. I think Detroit's offense is going to set the league on fire. Sidebar like I I think that they it's just going to be insane this year it boosts the best players. I think that's a way to sell the run and then get play action looks, get under center passing, get all this this kind of efficiency boosting stuff where you can get your best players in advantageous matchups. And so last year we saw McBride had a ton of production from these personnel packages. Only Pukanuku had more receptions from three tight end sets than Trey McBride. He had a 33% target per route run rate from those personnel packages. The stat that I think is that's just a small little thing that I wanted to bring in in reference to that conversation y' all had the the stat that's more meaningful. I think is just the raw number of routes that Trey McBride ran. This is from Rich Rebar. Trey McBride ran 694 routes last year, which is 121 more than the next closest tight end. It's the most routes run by a tight end in the true media database. The previous high was 623. McBride had 694. The average Titan runs about 32 routes per game, per Rich's research. So basically, McBride ran 22 games worth of routes last year, which is just not replicable. Like, all the Arizona stuff is clearly not replicable. Like, but that in particular, like, just the raw volume, it was just busted. That's not. I mean, everyone else is running 17 games worth of routes, and he ran 22.

[Adam Mazer]

But what if they go to the Super Bowl?

[Jacob Gibbs]

Maybe they will. So, like, Heath brought up, like, the per route stuff for McBride really doesn't look that special last year. And that's just true. Like, and it makes sense. And an offense that's not that good, not that efficient overall, you aren't going to be able to reduce elite efficiency most of the time. And so if the total volume number comes down and he doesn't somehow increase that efficiency in a big way, which I don't think that he's that type of a player because the Titans, who typically get to elite efficiency that aren't able to do it, like, because of their team are guys who are winning down the field or creating tons of yards after the catch. McBride doesn't necessarily do either of those things. He's more of an accumulator. He gets a lot of short targets. And so I am. I'm pretty nervous about what it's going to look like this year. And I think there are clear paths to more upside with some of the other Titans around him. Even though we might be a little bit safer than somebody like Colson Loveland or Sam laporta, I could see either of those guys outscoring him easily.

[Adam Mazer]

All right, we got to take a break here. So red, white, and boom For Jacob. Red is Trey McBride. White and boom. We'll find out after this. On FFT.

[Heath Cummings]

Queen Carvania stood haloed by the morning sun. An army hung on her every word.

[Adam Mazer]

My champions, I have sold my chariot on Carvana. Twas a lovely suv, an inexplicably queenly offer. They're even coming to the castle to collect it. Tonight we feast. An offer you can feast on.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Sell your car today on Carvana.

[Dave Richard]

Pickup fees may apply.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Alrighty. My, my. White is Kenneth Walker. And I'M really curious to get your guys take on this. I went with some early round players. I haven't got a chance to talk about Walker much this off season, but if you do want to watch a profile, he's one of the first ones that we did one of these individual profiles way back in the free agency period was Kenneth Walker. The obvious appeal with Walker is explosive plays, and that's really come through in an impressive way. So he ranks running back 23 in explosive plays per game through an initial four seasons dating back to 2000, which puts him in a range with some really, really good players, like just ahead of Sean Alexander, Brian Westbrook, and that's while splitting a backfield for a lot of that time. We, we know how good the explosive play potential is and could be in this Kansas City backfield where teams play the pass. That's how it's been for a long time. What I want to talk about is can he potentially increase like the consistency? And I'm really curious to get Heath's perspective on this, specifically as a Chiefs fan. So I'm tying this to Eric B. Enemy. And so if you look at, I dug into all this in this player profile, if you want to get all the specific information. The golden era of like the Andy Reid run game came under Eric B. Enemy. And specifically they had this 2021 team that was insanely efficient. It was a 54% success rate, which is the third highest mark of any team over the past five seasons on running back runs. And 70% of the runs gained positive yards before initial contact. The league average last year was 55%. 70% is the highest of any team during the time I have that data available dating back to 2017. Heath, do you remember who the running backs were in the 2021 Kansas City Chiefs backfield?

[Heath Cummings]

Oh man, I wish that you hadn't. You should ask me that like one sentence earlier because I actually, while you were talking was like, well, who was the 2121 Chiefs running back? And I had already pulled it up.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Daryl Williams, Clyde Edwards, Hilaire and Derek Gore Jr. Are the running backs. You're not remembering from this 54 success rate team. I really think BME is good at this specifically. Another area I would point to is DeAndre Swift's transformation last year. So Next Gen Stats has some interesting ways to contextualize what's happening in the running back position. One of those stats is the efficiency of movement. So like the amount of space that's covered. It's basically, are they getting vertical? The amount of space that's covered to get yards, basically. And Swift was the third least efficient in this metric in 2024, and then in 2025 he was well above the league average in this metric. So huge change there. Another set they have is yards over expectation. And Swift was dead last in the percentage of his runs that gained positive yards over expectation in 2024. And then in 2025 he was first in the league. And that's really unusual for him. He's kind of been like a Kenneth Walker type where he's like more boom, bust. And then last year we saw him be like Mr. Consistent. And I think a lot of people would just say, well yeah, Ben Johnson, Ben Johnson does the run installs. We've seen him with Ben Johnson before. You know, this is the first time we ever saw him with B. Enemy and he looked completely different. And so I'm wondering like what could be Enemy do for Kenneth Walker, who's been one of the most effective running backs in the NFL when given at least 1 yard before contact, 6.5 yards per rush. Last year when given at least 1 yard before Contact, only Devon HN had a higher explosive run rate on these runs where there was at least 1 yard before initial contact with the defender. The Chiefs have been very good at creating these types of runs and I think that has something to do with the way defenses play them. But also there's a lot of talent on that offensive line. So I'm, I'm really excited for Walker and I want to hear Heath's thoughts on Eric B. Enemy and then all of you if this, if this tracks.

[Heath Cummings]

No, I think the, the stuff you brought about Swift and improving that is, is really applicable because you're right, they have. Early in his career, Swift was more of a Kenneth Walker style home run or two yard loss. And so if he, I think he could have that same type of positive impact on Ken Walker and he could get more consistent as a rusher and, and could have a very effective season. I think my two questions are don't have much to do with the rushing. It's what's his role in the passing game to be? Because I don't think Eric B. Enemy when he was there in the past, the Chiefs really threw to the running back a lot. And I don't think Walker's probably going to be the third down or two minute drill running back. And then I don't think anybody's taking red zone rush attempts from him in terms of a running back. But do the Chiefs continue to do all the Patrick Mahomes stuff they've historically done in the red zone, which really limits those carries inside the 10 yard line for their lead running back. But I, I am, I think the stuff you, you brought up on on the Enemy is really good and makes me more optimistic about him as a rusher.

[Adam Mazer]

I think it's worth pointing out that swift year one with the Bears had a really bad offensive line and then in that off season they went out and massively upgraded and I think the, the Seahawks offensive line did well last year and stayed healthy. But it's just you already mentioned it. The Chiefs, especially on the interior are really good. This is such a great setup. I mean Jamie has him eighth at running back. So Heath and Dave are more like 12 and 13 I think.

[Heath Cummings]

But what is his fantasy pros?

[Adam Mazer]

ADP RB 10, 16th overall RB 10

[Heath Cummings]

so right, right in the middle of where we all. You have him 10th Jacob.

[Jacob Gibbs]

He's my white player. Yeah, I've got him at running back 11. I've got him behind Henry and A Chan. I think I might move him ahead of A Chan potentially. But yeah, that's why I wanted to bring this up is because like I've got all these reasons to think that he could be this boom player but for the reasons Heath brought up with, with the role uncertainty, transitioning over to a new team and also like he's gotta prove it. I think that he could do this stuff. I think BNME can help him. But at the same time he ranks freaking 51st in rush success rate among running backs since entering the NFL out of 54 qualifiers. And a lot of that has to do with offensive line and stuff. But Zach Sharp never ranks in the top 20 playing behind the same offensive line. Like a lot of that is Kenneth Walker. I love the guy to death. All the advanced stats in terms of what it tackles and stuff are fun but like he's got to be consistent.

[Adam Mazer]

Let me ask you a question. We're talking about success rate. Define success rate. And then you know, isn't it possible that Charbonnet can be a more consistent runner, have more higher success rate But Kenneth Walker is the guy who can break off the 50 yard run and he can do that twice a year. He could have four runs of 30 yards or more or something like that. And even though on a carry by carry basis it's frustrating. The success rate might not reflect it, but the production could still be there because he has that elite speed for sure.

[Jacob Gibbs]

But I do think we've seen him lose Touches throughout his NFL career. And I think that this could have something to do with it, is that he might be a frustrating player for coaches a little bit.

[Adam Mazer]

Yeah.

[Jacob Gibbs]

But, yeah, success rate is on first or second down, if a player gains half of the yardage required to first down. So if it's second and eight, if they gain four more yards, that's a success. On third or fourth down, if they gain a first down, that's a success. And, yeah, they're completely different types of players. The explosives from Walker definitely make him worth getting on the field. But Charbonnet, I. I went into this on the Kenneth Walker breakdown on that video. Sharpening was one of the few running backs in the league last year who, if you look at their runs, where they were hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, he actually gained positive yards and Walker did not. So it's like Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson. There's a very few of these running backs are able to do it, and Charbonnet was one of them. He's very, very good at that.

[Adam Mazer]

Okay, all right. Boom. Who's your boom player? And I agree with it. 100. It's a great call. Good job. And by the way, I think you were the most critical of me when I took A.J. brown, like, 16th overall or something like that in a recent.

[Jacob Gibbs]

I think that that might be you being a little sensitive and taking that personally. Because I didn't say anything critical. I said, wow. I was just surprised. I thought it was cool. Okay. AJ Brown is my boom. And yes, since. Since Adam Mazer took him in the first round, I have been rapidly approaching that level of enthusiasm.

[Adam Mazer]

No way. But I didn't take him in the first round.

[Jacob Gibbs]

I took him at the 1, 2 turn.

[Adam Mazer]

Not quite. Let me see. I think I got the June 2026.

[Dave Richard]

I feel like it was like a

[Adam Mazer]

top 16, fifth pick. So that's 13, 14, 15, 17th overall.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Okay, yeah, I'm there. I think I'm considering moving AJ Brown ahead of Drake London. I'm considering moving ahead of Justin Jefferson, Nico Collins for sure. I think that's where I'm approaching with A.J.

[Adam Mazer]

brown.

[Jacob Gibbs]

I think there's tons of reasons to be optimistic, and I'm going to try not to just ramble for 10 minutes here. If at any point you want to get into this conversation, please do, because I have a lot. There's a lot to think about with A.J. brown, but really, it could just be as simple as, like, A.J. brown's really good. Drake May is really good. Josh McDaniels is good at what he does. This could be awesome. So AJ Brown isn't gonna like find himself in who's this year's Jackson Smith and Jigba discussions because he's not an early career receiver. But he really does fit like the exact criteria that Ryan Heath laid out with Vlad McConkey when he came on your guys show and talked about McConkey as this year's JSN. He leaves a heavy three receiver set and heavy shotgun style offense to play with the patriots, which are one of 10 teams with a sub 50% rate of three receiver sets. In 2025, New England ranked eighth in under center dropbacks and ninth in under center play action dropbacks. I'm focused on under center dropbacks because they are efficiency boosting plays and A.J. brown is just one year removed from averaging 3 yards per outrun in a shotgun heavy offense. And so like if you split it out and I did an episode with Ben Gretsch on this if you, if you want to check out the the former CBS legend Ben Gretchen and I just getting super super nerdy and deep into the weeds on per route data. All of this personnel stuff really really affects it and some of these players get boosted in a significant way by playing in more, you know, big personnel under center play action heavy offenses. That's what we saw early in A.J. brown's career in Tennessee. In Philadelphia it wasn't really the case and still he averaged over three yards per outrun just one year ago. He's one of nine receivers with a single season yard per outrun rate above three during the time that I have that data available. That's 2019 touch on 25 and that was with the Eagles just one year ago. I think people like don't remember how good that season was I guess and are like nervous that he's dropped off. But like I don't know man, he's, he's wide receiver three in yards per outrun during his time in the NFL behind only Bukanuku and Tyree Kill. And he's wide receiver one from under center specifically. Again he didn't get very many of those opportunities with the Eagles, but 4.4 yards per out run from under center throughout his career. Pukanuku is next at 4.3 and then there's a massive drop off to Nico Collins at 3.7. I really think A.J. brown might be just one of the best players in the league and we don't really know it because he's always been in low volume offenses. So I want to Dig a little bit deeper with the per route data. I want to talk about Stefan Diggs. Diggs Last year was.

[Adam Mazer]

This is what I said the day after that draft. I came on the show and Heath wasn't on the show. But I know you can make the argument they really spread the ball out in New England, but they didn't. When Stefan Diggs was on the field, he just wasn't on the field that much. But he got a ton of targets. So his target per hour run rate was like top 8. He was top 10 in almost every valuable metric basically. Sorry. Stefan Diggs was pretty much, pretty much

[Jacob Gibbs]

top 10 in all of the per opportunity basis metrics.

[Adam Mazer]

Yeah, my fault. He was 20th in target per hour run rate 24.4%. But the other stuff, yards per out run, first down rate, he was really high. Okay, go ahead.

[Jacob Gibbs]

And when he got to be on the field in a full time role, it didn't drop off at all. So sometimes like Keenan Allen for example, they get this really high per route production but that's because they're coming on to do specific stuff and they're targeted on those plays. Diggs just was in a part time role I think because he's old. So he was wide receiver 10 in fantasy points per run in this New England offense last year and that was with only four touchdowns and still was wide receiver 10 in fantasy points per run. He had a thousand yards in this part time role. 68 route share for Stefan Diggs last year and still a thousand yards on a property on a per opportunity basis he was top 10. I think AJ Brown is better than Stefan Diggs and I think he's going to play more and I think he's going to score more. So Diggs had a 19 red zone share and an only 8% of the end zone targets for the Patriots last year. He played 17 games. He had 8% of the end zone targets. A.J. brown has a freaking 34% career rate when it comes to like end zone targets and games that he's played. That rate has never been below 21% this season. That was his rookie season when it was 21%. His red zone target shares as a member of the Eagles have been 24%, 27%, 31%, 34%. Diggs's rate was 19. I think A.J. brown is an alpha in a way that Diggs isn't really and he has like no target competition on this team. Like what's really crazy about the the Eagles rates and how high they are, which is basically like League high numbers is he's playing alongside Devonte Smith who I think pretty much all of us agree is like a top, at worst like a top 15. Why Doc Retalian in the league like a legitimate like potential wide receiver one type of talent. And still AJ Brown is completely dominating all these target shares and now he goes to the Patriots and it's like who Romeo Dobbs, like Romeo Dobbs is a good player. He was an important reliable player for the Packers. He topped out at 21 in terms of target per hour run rate across his four seasons with the Packers. It was always between 19 and 21. I think we know who he is. Dobbs is a competent X receiver who can work down the field and open things up for the better catch and run players. We've seen Jane Reed, Tucker Kraft, Christian Watson, all those guys put up really good numbers on a per opportunity basis because I do think they benefit from playing alongside him. He's an ideal wide receiver teamer. He's just good enough to get the defenses respect, not good enough to make his quarterback lock in on him. I think we know who the quarterback's going to be locked in on as long as he can stay healthy. It's. It's A.J. brown clearly. And so the last thing I would throw in here is I did an episode with Ryan Heath recently on beyond the Box Score where we talked about which stats matter in terms of predicting future fantasy scoring. Ryan digs into all the the previous year's data and then how strongly it correlated to the next year's fantasy points. And some really interesting things stood out to me in doing that exercise. First of which was that first read target rate correlates more strongly with future fantasy point production than actual target rate. The next two are both about first downs. First down per route run rate correlates more strongly than yard per run rate. And I think yard per run rate is generally thought of as like the best receiver stat or one of the best receiver stats. Just total first downs correlates more strongly than fantasy points per game. And it you, I mean Heath definitely knows this from doing projections and stuff. Like you pretty much, you pretty much can't beat fantasy points per game. Like if you just look at last year's fantasy points per game, that's pretty instructive. You're probably going to do a really good job of just like predicting what's gonna happen the next year for the most part just getting first downs total first downs correlated more strongly. And if you look at AJ Brown, he's been one of the absolute best in the league at creating first downs during his time in the league. And then he also has these massive first retarget shares again. Playing with Devonte Smith, he had a 42 first retarget rate in 2024, which was just behind Malik Neighbors, who was on a Giants team that had no one else. It was mid neighbors at 42.8, AJB at 42.1%. The next highest was Drake London at 35. Even last year he was seventh in the league, higher than Trey McBride, higher than Chris Alave, higher than Zay Flowers, who are guys who were clearly the top option in their offense. And A.J. brown had a 35 first retarget rate while playing alongside Devonte Smith. So we're one year removed from wide receiver one in the whole league types of rates from A.J. brown. And now he gets to play with less target competition than ever before with by far the best passer he's ever played with in a high scoring and pass heavy offense. Like, unless he's total dust or gets hurt, I think he easily is a strong bet to lead the wider position in scoring.

[Adam Mazer]

I don't know about leading the position and scoring, but I'm very comfortable with where I drafted him. And you think taking him over Jefferson is pretty interesting? Definitely could see it. Heath, you've been sort of cautious with A.J. brown. Any, any changes in your muted.

[Heath Cummings]

No, I. Listen, I. I have been cautious. I think I've got him. I've got him in round three now. I hope he's still AJ Brown. I think all the things about Jacob, talking about how good A.J. brown was and I do think you have to say was because he wasn't last year is. It's just like you, you hope that he's still the same guy and that the knee is okay. It's kind of. I was thinking about how he's kind of Mike Evans adjacent. He's four years younger, so it's not the same argument, but it's older wide receiver who has some injury questions going to a new team that has not recently been very high in wide receiver targets. Now there's, there's differences too. Brown's better than Mike Evans and Brown's younger than Mike Evans. I do, I do worry about the knee and worry about the health and worry if he's still quite the same guy.

[Adam Mazer]

And yeah, just hold on because I think A.J. you're right in one sense. Like there was a report, for what it's worth, a report by Jeff McLean of the Philadelphia Inquirer said The Rams were interested in AJ Brown, but they were not satisfied with his medicals. And he also said, McClain said, that the knee was part of the reason the Eagles didn't get more for AJ Brown. Because people he went for a 2027 fifth round pick and a 2028 first round pick and people thought that was underpaying or a good value for A.J. brown. So I think that's really important to note that he might have a knee issue here. All right, we got to. Let's move on to me. Yay. Red, White and boom. Red has pumped the brakes going a little too early. White is perfect draft value and boom is going to exceed that draft value and maybe win you your league. All right, Red. Caleb Williams, he is QB6, 72nd overall. I love Caleb Williams. I really want to get Caleb Williams going into the off season. I thought this is a guy I'm gonna target. Maybe he'll be somewhere around 90th overall, something like that. No, he's QB6 and he's 72nd overall. He's 23 picks ahead of Brock Purdy. Brock Purdy has finished as a top six quarterback in two of his last three seasons. On a per game basis, he's 24 picks ahead of Matthew Stafford. Matthew Stafford won the MVP last year and was I think QB2 per game right up there. He's 24 picks, also ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Jackson Dart. So I love Caleb Williams. He could be better than all of them. I would rank him ahead of all of them. I'm not willing to take him two rounds earlier than all of those guys. You know, that would be Purdy, Stafford, Mahomes, Dart, not to mention Trevor Lawrence is in that mix. There's just such good quarterback value that I think while I do like Caleb a lot, I don't think he should be basically in his own tier ahead of all those other guys. White. So the, the right ADP is T. Higgins, 38th overall wide receiver 19. This is where he's finished on a per game basis in his last five seasons, beginning with 2025 and working backwards, 16th per game, 5th per game, 42nd per game, 13th per game and 13th per game. One bad year in 2023 when Joe Burrow was hurt and Joe Burrow was kind of bad. Other than that he's been top 16 per game. T. Higgins is going as wide receiver 19 right now. It just, it's perfect. I don't think he has huge upside unless that target per out run rate comes back up to where it was in 2024. That seems a little unlikely, but I think he's a really safe pick in round three. And boom. Josh Downs, 97th overall wide receiver 44 in ADP. He ran more than 80% of the routes in three games last year and honestly he didn't do that well. But Daniel Jones was not the quarterback for any of those games the year before. He ran 78 or more of the routes in six games. He scored 19.5, 22.2, 19.4, 6.2, 15.1 and 19.4. That is 19.4 or more PPR fantasy points in four of six games in which he ran 78 or more of the routes In 2024. They talked about moving Josh Downs outside more. Got to get him on the field. Obviously they lose Pittman. I am concerned about Daniel Jones, I am concerned about the offense, but this is the value pick here of the 3 wide receiver, 3 wide receiver slash tight ends on this team. Wide receiver 44, 97th overall for Josh Downs. If you want to be a little cautious and get a piece of the Colts offense, which was number one in the, in the league last year when Jones was healthy, this is the guy to get really good on a per route basis. And I watched more film every time last night. Every time I watch Josh Downs, I am amazed at how he just destroys cornerbacks, gets open, makes people look stupid and he could, he will have his best year. I think, you know, boom is a little crazy. I don't think he's going to win your league, but I think he could be somewhere around. Wide receiver 24. Okay, Red Caleb Williams, white T. Higgins. Boom. Josh Downs. Any disagreements here?

[Jacob Gibbs]

I like Caleb Williams this year. I think your reasoning is fine though. Like there's a lot of, there's a lot to like at quarterback.

[Adam Mazer]

I love Caleb Williams.

[Heath Cummings]

Somebody could be amazing. But it's, it's about that time of year where I start doing the. Somebody had a good tweet and I can't remember who it was. So I'm not going to give him credit. But it was basically talking about how the top five quarterbacks are cheaper than they've ever been and guys in the Caleb Williams range are more expensive than they've ever been. Like we just kind of smushed QB together and I think that kind of makes sense because you get to a certain point in the draft where like do I take a guy who I know is the starting quarterback or do I take maybe Josh Downs and most people are going to choose Caleb Williams and all and the, and the, the starting quarterbacks over him. But they also don't want to draft a quarterback in round two so that the elite guys have fallen down. I, I think it's hard for me to justify Caleb's adp, but it is also a pretty easy fix. He just has to learn how to throw the ball where he wants it to go.

[Adam Mazer]

Yeah, he's phenomenal. I'm really excited for him. But yeah, he's, he's not phenomenally.

[Heath Cummings]

Phenomenally accurate.

[Adam Mazer]

No, he's one of the. J.J. mcCarthy's the only quarterback who had a lower completion percentage than Caleb Williams. Also, he runs a lot, but he doesn't run a lot near the goal line. So he's not scoring a ton of rushing touchdowns. Kayla Williams has three goal line carries in his career.

[Heath Cummings]

Also, I think, like, probably more important than my reaction to those names was Dan's reaction to your soccer ranch.

[Adam Mazer]

Well, he's, he's, he's wrong. First of all, Dan saying note for Adam while I was heated and ready to rant because of the red card. It's an example of Adam and me, Dan not knowing soccer. Apparently, regardless of intent, it's always a red cleats up. Well, I was reading an article I think from the Athletic this morning that said there was a little bit of discretion there that they could have. Like they took away a red card from Messi earlier in the tournament. Tournament, tournament. So I don't think it's, it's.

[Dave Richard]

Oh.

[Adam Mazer]

But my further point was if that play is what gets you a red card and a red card gets you disqualified, you can't be replaced and you're suspended for at least one match, then red cards are stupid and we need to do something about red cards and how stupid they are. Dan is stupid too, because he also is already talking smack about tennis. We're a month and a half away from our match. I'll be getting waxed this year. According to Dan, I have not closed the gap at all. The gap is getting wider. How is the gap getting wider when you never play and I play 606062 is what he's predicting. It will not be the case. I feel pretty decent about it, but we'll see. You know, you're lucky that I'm injured. Dan Schneier also, I hope all of you will watch the match. We're going to stream it. It's going to be fun. We're going to raise a lot of money. We're going to. I think we should play some doubles with, with Jamie and Heath personally and make Dave the ball boy. But we'll figure out creative ways to to raise some money for St. John.

[Heath Cummings]

I'd love to do that.

[Adam Mazer]

It's actually it's July I should mention Draft A Thon is is coming up. FFT Open is coming up. We're expanding from 2014. We've gone from 8 to 12 to 24 to now 36 leagues in the FFT Open. That means if we sell out all of our spots, we're going to raise $99,000 for St. Jude is unbelievable. The best thing we do is this Draft A Thon so more info on that. That's that'll be like probably 3ish weeks away where we start putting those spots up. Maybe a little bit later than that. But if you want to be in the FFT open, you have plenty of opportunities. 36 leagues and yeah, all goes to St. Jude. Thanks to Jacob Gibbs for coming on Watch beyond the box score. Thanks to Heath Cummings for coming on Watch FFT Dynasty Dynasty. Thanks for Dave Richard coming on. Thanks to Dave Richard for coming on Watch FFT Express in five minutes as Dave and I are going to be recording that and everybody have an awesome 4th USA all the way. See you later. Paramount Podcasts let's talk about Viori Clothing. I love these clothes. I love the versatility. That's what really stands out. When I went to the website, the first thing I saw was the tennis shop. So of course I got some tennis shirts from Vuori and they're great to play in, but also I could just wear them around the house or out to lunch. Again, versatility. That's what you're going to get from Vuori clothes. Whether it's shorts, shirts, hoodies, men's clothing, women's clothing, whatever. How about the Vuoricore shorts? People love these. Ideal for fitness, running and training, but also stylish and comfortable enough to wear all day. Make sure you check out the core shorts. Vuori is an investment in your happiness. Some of the most comfortable and versatile clothing on the planet. For our listeners, they're offering 20% off your first purchase at vuori.com fantasy football. That's V-U-O-R-I.com fantasy football exclusions apply. Visit the website for full terms and conditions.