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Adam Azer
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Heath Cummings
It was amazing.
Adam Azer
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Dave Richard
This is Fantasy Football TODAY from CBS Sports. What a play. Can you believe this?
Heath Cummings
No, I can't.
Dave Richard
It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races and he stays on his feet. This is going to go the distance.
Heath Cummings
Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.
Jamie
All right, it is Tuesday, June 30th and we've got some fill in the blank for you. And we're going to talk about Christian Watson's potential. Which Chargers wide receiver is going to benefit the most from a new offense? A post hype sleeper. Someone who failed to live up to the hype but now is going to make that big jump and and a lot more. And we welcome you. I'm Adam Azer with Heath Cummings and Dave Richard. I guess not that much more. We do have a pretty cool stat about Dave. What's this? It's about wide receivers. Two stud wide receivers on the same team and being able to repeat that success. Right?
Dave Richard
There's been anywhere from 0 to 2 teammates of wide receivers that both finish top 12 in PPR points per game each of the last 11 seasons, 2014 through 2024, how many times have teammate receivers repeated as top 12 in PPR points per Game in consecutive seasons? Obviously that would mean repeating over that time span. 2014 to 2024.
Heath Cummings
Twice.
Dave Richard
Heath says twice. Adam, are you higher or lower than heath?
Jamie
Top 12? I'm going to say. Wait, but I thought you said 0 to 2 earlier. What was that? 0?
Dave Richard
How many times it's happened?
Jamie
Oh, per year?
Dave Richard
Per season? Yes.
Heath Cummings
He didn't give us.
Dave Richard
And we know that CD Lamb and George Pickens were both top 12 on a PPR per game basis.
Jamie
I'm gonna say three times. I'm gonna say Chase and Higgins.
Dave Richard
You're saying over. I didn't ask you to start naming.
Heath Cummings
You lost, Adam.
Jamie
Yeah, yeah, over.
Dave Richard
You kind of lose on this alone.
Adam Azer
Over.
Heath Cummings
You lost.
Dave Richard
The answer is one time. One time. From 2014 to 2024, has a duo finished top 12 in PPR points per game back to back seasons. Can you name the duo? I'm gonna guess. You can't. And Adam. You can guess Jason Higgins, but that would be incorrect.
Jamie
Well, then I'll guess something else.
Dave Richard
I want. I want Thomas Schaefer to guess.
Jamie
Yeah, no.
Dave Richard
Jalen and Dick.
Jamie
Oh, damn. I was gonna say.
Heath Cummings
And also did it with Jefferson.
Jamie
He did, I believe.
Dave Richard
Yeah, but they didn't repeat.
Heath Cummings
Adam Thielen is the key to having two wide receivers in the top 12.
Jamie
Devonte Adams has done it a number of times with Jordy Nelson. I don't know. I don't think Garrett. No, not with Garrett Wilson. Overall with Garrett Wilson, but not per game with Garrett Wilson. And last year overall with Pukinakua. Devonte Adams has actually been Dave's doing per game, which is great. Devonte Adams has been a top 12 wide receiver with a teammate two years in a row. Garrett Wilson in 2024 and Puka Nakua last year.
Dave Richard
That's EPR points.
Heath Cummings
Yes. I had a follow up to Dave's question. Not a complete answer yet, but we've begun the research. I talked about how there were like three or four pairs or trios of pass catchers that I had projected for over 65% of their teams off targets. Adam is now spitting pits to make a point.
Jamie
Well, that's what we do. We eat cherries and we spit out the pits.
Heath Cummings
We don't eat while we podcast. This is an idiotic way to try to prove your point. We do not.
Dave Richard
Who eats while podcast? It's totally gross.
Heath Cummings
Like, one of the times I think I got the most angry at you ever was like a year into my career at cbs and we used to do the baseball podcast, like at 8 in the morning, right? Like, I'm still a little bit hang grumpy, grumpy from being up and I get on and Adam is eating like a bagel with cream cheese as we're getting ready to start the show. And like, it was as if he was having a who can eat the loudest contest. Just this bagel and cream cheese is just smacking off of his yam. Anyway, anyway, yes. Last year, the top three trios in terms of target share percentage. AJ Brown, Devonte Smith and Dallas Goddard had 68% of the targets in Philadelphia. Among Ross St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Jameer Gibbs had 67% and Bijan London and Pitts had 64%.
Dave Richard
Okay, happens a little more than we thought it did. Well, at least last year.
Jamie
And, and you know, for the Falcons, they didn't really add anybody and the, the Eagles subtracted somebody and I'm sorry, what was the other one?
Heath Cummings
The Lions, they're just going to replace one of JMO and Gibbs with Laporta, so.
Jamie
Right. That's the thing. But that, that one's sure more. A little more complicated just because the Porta's injury, the reporters injury opened the way for Gibbs, opened the door for Gibbs and Jamo. It's amazing looking at these teams that had two top 12 wide receivers. It's amazing that the Lions were one of them last year in overall points, PPR points. Jameson Williams was the number 12 wide receiver last year, which blows my mind. And that's kind of the. One of the things with, with per game stats is that sometimes they can be influenced by the absences of the other receiver.
Heath Cummings
You know, and sometimes guys can be top 12 for the full season because they played 17 games.
Jamie
Oh, yeah. All the time.
Dave Richard
Right.
Heath Cummings
Yeah. Right. So it's just. You have to balance the two of them.
Jamie
Yeah, yeah, but it, but you can
Dave Richard
always add context to either one of those stats. I just think it's a little easier to add context to the per game. And if you have, if you have an idea of, okay, this guy can average 15 points per game, I think you recognize he's not going to do that every single week. I think you recognize that there will be some weeks where he smashes and some weeks where he's, you know, four catches, 45 yards and you got to suck it up. But the bottom line is that it's a better representation of, of what a player might be able to deliver compared to, oh, this guy scored 331 fantasy points last year. You got to do math to figure out all that other stuff. I don't know if that necessarily says anything other than the guy played a lot of games and did pretty good in those games.
Jamie
Well, I also think that we're making the point that if, when you have two teammates who had great seasons at wide receiver, it's difficult to do it again. Right?
Dave Richard
Yeah. 17 wide receiver duos. I've already said that. Now that's the third time one of them repeated top 12. Four of them repeated top 15 that includes last year with Chase and Higgins finishing top 13. So kind of a technicality there. They were really close. Three others repeated top 21 repeated top 24. So that's 5, 8, 9 out of 17 wide receiver groups. When they both finished top 12, they finished top 24 or better the following year. And I, I mean, it's history. It doesn't necessarily speak to anything specifically about Lamb and Pickens, but it does suggest, as you just said, Adam, that it's really, really hard to do. And I think it forces fantasy managers to make a choice to either ignore this piece of history or except that it's going to be really hard and then choose your fighter. Choose which Cowboys wide receiver you'd rather have. For me, it's Lamb. He was more consistent last year. He's been more consistent for fantasy. I'm willing to take the chance on him finishing as not, not just top 12, but top 10, top eight in PPR points per game versus Pickens, who might fall off. And that being said, yes, I moved Pickens down a little bit in my rankings, but I can't find a way to get him out of the top 12 yet.
Jamie
Yeah, well, I'll also say that, you know, Pickens production was boosted by CD Lamb missing some games. So if you, for sure, if you just look at weeks no. 8 through 17, the last 10 games, excluding week 18, when they only played a half on a per game basis, CD Lamb was wide receiver, 11 per game and George Pickens was wide receiver. No, Pickens was 11 per game. Lamb was 13 per game. Right, but I, if you just look at the targets, Lamb was on pace for 156 and Pickens was on pace for 146. The problem is in those 10 games, they each caught only three touchdowns. So I think they'll do better than 13th and 11th because I think they'll score more touchdowns. But you know, I don't know what the target split will be. You know, will it be 156 for lamb and 146 per pickens? If that's the case, I'm, I'm fine both taking both of them where they're going. But obviously we should expect Lamb to
Heath Cummings
have more targets and Pickens targets to be worth more than Lamps Fair.
Jamie
Okay. All right, so that's. We're starting off with that stat about the repeat wide receivers. Also wanted to mention that, you know, I got an email yesterday saying stop talking about third down snaps for running backs. They don't, it doesn't necessarily matter just because they're on the field for third down doesn't mean they're catching passes. And it's a good point. It doesn't necessarily matter for a lot of running backs, Quint Allen for example. But it does matter, I think for Aaron Rodgers running backs. Rogers has been fourth and first in running back targets per game on third down over the last two seasons.
Heath Cummings
This, what, this is my favorite, My favorite Aaron Rodgers.
Jamie
Yeah, it's just what he does and it's since the tournament. Achilles and Kenneth Gainwell. Kenneth Gainwell had 32 targets and 24 catches on third down. So that's why I thought it was important that yesterday to have that conversation about who's going to be the third down back for the Steelers because I, I think that's probably the most valuable going into this season. Looks like the most valuable third down role or at least one of them in, in the NFL.
Heath Cummings
Really interesting. There's like a million things of what does the reunion of Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy look like? But I did think it was interesting over the last three years, Aaron Rodgers running back target rate 23.9%, 19.3%, 20.6%. Those. That's definitely high for a quarterback, like not quite best in the league over those three years but. But maybe one of the years it was. But definitely high the last three years he played with Mike McCarthy. 14.9, 11.7%, 15.9%.
Dave Richard
Yeah.
Heath Cummings
An enormous difference is that just because he tore the Achilles and he's not mobile and so now he just throws to running backs or, or a lot of those third down throws going to go to Michael Pittman now.
Dave Richard
I think, I think he just doesn't. I think it's an old age problem. I don't think he wants to get beat up anymore. And that might be because of what happened with the Achilles. Not that the Achilles injury happened because of fierce hits that he took. I mean it happened as soon as the season started practically. But I think as you see with older quarterbacks and older players in general, man, it's, they feel a little bit different when you, when you take on a hit from somebody who's 15 years younger than you. And I think that's what it is for Rogers and that's why he's getting the ball out quick. And I think that'll continue.
Jamie
All right, last stat on that. If you just want to maybe look at Rogers with the Jets. Okay. Coming off the torn Achilles the first six games of the season, Breeze hall was on pace for 96 targets. Then they traded For Devonte Adams. Now they have Wilson and Adams. Is that the same as Pittman and, and, and Metcalf? No, but they let. I think they led the NFL and pass attempts that year, so it's similar. And then Breeze hall in the last. I think he only played nine games, maybe 10 games out of 11. He was on pace. He was on pace for, I think, 72 targets, something like that. He had 52 on pace for 52 catches. But you can see I, I make the case. He's going to be really good. Roger's gonna be really good for his running backs, the passing game. But I'm now statistically giving a case sort of against it, that now that he has two receivers worth throwing to instead of just one last year, that he might not throw those running backs as much.
Dave Richard
He might. He might have three receivers worth throwing too.
Jamie
Yeah, I mean, it's possible, but he just. He doesn't want to get hit. He gets the ball out super quickly, throws the ball behind the line of scrimmage all the time. He, you know, he'll throw to his wide receiver. His running backs just don't know how much. By the way, I was calling these water cooler stats. Jamie texted me and notified me last week that I think it's the fantasy Life newsletter has around the water cooler and they have some stats and stuff. It's not stats. It's like articles and things like that. So what do you think? Do I need to change it?
Heath Cummings
Yeah, I think that certainly if one podcast is using terminology, then no other fantasy podcast can use the same terminology. We have a pretty exclusive rights agreement with the rest of the industry that we all agree that we get certain phrases and we don't share phrases at all.
Dave Richard
They better not use Acer stats, Adam.
Jamie
No.
Dave Richard
Or maybe they should, because then you could sue them.
Jamie
They. They won't. He. But Jamie said, quote, you stole it, which obviously I didn't do. But we can leave it as water cooler stats or we can go with group chat stats. Maybe you text it to your fantasy football group chat.
Dave Richard
There you go. I like.
Heath Cummings
What's worse, what is like evokes more angst amongst the listener.
Jamie
That's not what I'm going for.
Heath Cummings
Standing around a water cooler at your place of work or being caught in a group chat.
Jamie
Oh, people like group chats.
Heath Cummings
That's why. Oh, nobody likes group chats.
Dave Richard
I like my.
Jamie
I love my group chats.
Heath Cummings
We need a poll. Do you like group chat? Chat checks, Chats. Group chats.
Jamie
But it needs to be okay because sometimes I like them and sometimes I don't. So I think it's a. It's a little. Maybe it's like, do you. Do you wish group group chats existed? How about.
Dave Richard
I'm good with group chats. I just don't necessarily participate in them.
Jamie
From Mr. Scampers. I've heard another show use Starter Sit before, so.
Dave Richard
All right, we're gonna see Mr. Scampers.
Heath Cummings
Also Mr. Scampers. I agree. I. That's the. That's the even worse part, is, like, if you are in a group chat, you can guess that half the people in it have it muted and aren't going to respond. Or it's a group chat that you don't care about and you've got it muted and you don't see this stuff. Group chats.
Jamie
I've had so many group chats, I don't think it's worth going through this. This one group of friends I have, like five different group chats for. It's pretty funny, but. All right, listen beyond the Box score. Go to YouTube.com search for beyond the Box Score. They've got their own audio feed as well. Great content there. I think all of us are going to be making appearances on beyond the Box Score. Jacob was listening to our. To one of our. Yeah. This week for Dave. Okay. Next week for me. Jacob was listening to one of our recent shows and loved our conversation about Trey McBride. And I was like, well, I talked about it for 30 minutes on our show. I'll come and talk about it for an hour on yours. So I know we're gonna do that next week anyway. Looking forward to that. We'll take a quick break, some quick news items, and then fill in the blank when we come back.
Adam Azer
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Dave Richard
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Jamie
Go easy.
Dave Richard
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Jamie
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Heath Cummings
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Jamie
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Heath Cummings
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Jamie
Sign up for free and book today. Hotels.com it's all in the name. All right, we're back. I've got a little bit of an issue here, guys. I in my commitment to the bit. I still have two cherries left. I've already made my point and we've gotten the laughs out of it. But I'm, I, I, I feel like I have to eat them.
Heath Cummings
So. Why didn't you eat them during the break?
Dave Richard
Yeah, that's what I did.
Jamie
I was looking through my notes. I was getting ready for the next segment.
Heath Cummings
Well, we'll have another break coming up.
Jamie
Okay.
Dave Richard
I don't know if I why don't you come back from break and then spit out the seed on the microphone for everybody to hear.
Heath Cummings
So.
Jamie
All right. I think we do have a fruit salad. Related. Fill in the blank a little bit later, I guess.
Dave Richard
Yeah, we do.
Jamie
We'll get to that News and notes. Mark Andrews says the Ravens offense is totally different than anything we've seen or anything we've done. He said. He also said it's a scary sight when you see Lamar Jackson adding new things to his repertoire, which is not a word I like pronouncing, by the way. But I'm wondering what this offense is going to look like. I mean, are they going to throw the ball 30 times a game? Is this bad news for Henry? Is it just good news for everyone? I made the point with you yesterday on Express, Dave, because you wrote a great article about all of the 18 new play callers that we have that Lamar Jackson was actually incredibly good with Todd Monken. I don't even know how he could be much better. But what do you think the offense is going to look like?
Dave Richard
He was good until he got banged up last year and then the wheels came off. We all remember that in the second half of last season. We, we know that they're moving on from the fullback. They're going to use more tight ends. Not only is Declan Doyle a former tight ends coach, but he's really embraced the idea of using multiple tight ends. I think that's probably helping making make Mark Andrews feel better about the offense and his role in it. I do think there will be a little bit more creativity, a little bit more play action, passing, more passing overall and the way Lamar has thrown when he's been healthy the last few years has been really impressive. And then you tack on what he might be able to do, scrambling designed runs on top of it. And there's a really good case to be made that he could be not the first QB off the board. I think Josh Allen's earned that title, but the second QB off the board. I can kind of dig into that a little bit, especially with Miles Garrett out of the division now. Two fewer games without him. Dude. I think that there could be some really good games ahead for Lamar Jackson. Even though Declan Doyle is a first year play caller, that's always something that you've got to be worried about.
Jamie
He is the second quarterback off the board on fantasy pros on draft sharks, but you know, a decent amount behind Josh Allen. So there's a discount there. Pretty big news with the Lions. They released cornerback Terry and Arnold, who was arrested last week on charges of armed robbery and kidnapping. Snapping. And he's a good player. He's a first round pick. The stats with him on and off the field last year, they're not dramatically different. They're a little worse with him off the field. He missed half the season. He only played eight games. Some of the games he left early anyway. But, you know, I. I've talked about this a lot each of the last two years. The Lions have started out not really throwing the ball that much and then their defense falling apart and they've thrown the ball a ton. So this is a. This is a big blow to their defense. And jets rookie tight end Kenyon Siddiq is expected to be ready for training camp. He had hernia surgery and hopefully back pretty soon. Okay, let's do it. Fill in the blank. I want to thank our Twitter and Facebook audience for giving us these fill in the blanks. First one comes from Jovan. In a best case scenario, Christian Watson will finish as wide receiver. Blank.
Dave Richard
Like where amongst the wide receivers?
Jamie
What else would it be?
Dave Richard
Or like a top 24 wide receiver or wide receiver 2. I'm not sure what Jovan's looking for.
Jamie
Yeah, yeah. Like he'll finish his best case scenario,
Dave Richard
top number two wide receiver, let's say wide receiver, 16 overall.
Jamie
I was gonna say that.
Dave Richard
Dave. Yeah.
Jamie
Jinx.
Heath Cummings
It's so hard. Like what? What? In a Matt LaFleur, like, best case scenario is still supposed to be somewhat like within the realm of possibility, right?
Dave Richard
Yeah.
Heath Cummings
So In a Matt LaFleur offense, what is the best case scenario for a wide receiver's total number of targets?
Jamie
Well, let's let's Is it more than
Heath Cummings
that we've ever seen?
Jamie
I broke it down actually. Sort of. I'm this is remember best case scenario for Christian Watson. From weeks 11 through 17, he had a 23.5 target share and he did
Dave Richard
that 15.1 PPR points per game.
Jamie
I did that. He did that while running only 69.1% of the routes. But a 23.5% target share. That's a very good target per out run rate. He left one of those games early with an injury. When he came back the next two weeks, he was somewhat limited, but still 23.5% target share. What does that look like in the Jordan Love era over the last three seasons, based on the amount of pass attempts the packers have had, a 23.5% target share would have been 137, 113 and 115 targets. Considering Watson was a top 20 wide receiver last year and he was only on pace for 94 targets, if he gets 115 targets, this has been a guy who's been one of the most efficient wide receivers in the NFL. He's going to say he hasn't done it on that many targets. That's 100.
Heath Cummings
True.
Jamie
But if he gets 115 targets, I think the best case scenario is even better than wide receiver 16.
Heath Cummings
Well, if you believe like last year, he had 55 targets, averaged 11.1 yards per target and scored six times on 55 targets. So if, yes, if he had 130 targets and scored 15 touchdowns on those 130 targets and averaged 11 yards per target, he would be the best wide receiver in fantasy football.
Jamie
I said 115 targets. I don't. I'm not. I don't think he's going to get 130 with a 50. He had a 15.5 yard, eight out. No one's getting 130 targets with that. A few people are getting 130.
Heath Cummings
I'd probably say wide receiver 20. You know what 17.88.
Jamie
Yeah, sorry. That week, week 11 through 17 stretch when he had the high target share was 15.5.
Dave Richard
Yeah, that's high. But he still managed to get it done. Very up and down production in those weeks. There were three games where he was under 10 PPR points per game and four where he had at least 18 PPR points per game. So boom. Bus nature. I feel a little uncomfortable saying that he could be top 12, but let's say he stays healthy. In the theory that you laid out, Adam, yeah, he could do It. So I'm going to change my answer. I'm going to say top 12 wide receiver. Wide receiver.
Heath Cummings
12.
Dave Richard
Exactly.
Jamie
I think when you look at his profile, pretty similar player to Alec Pierce. And I think those two guys have been first and second in yards per target and yards per catch the last two years and fantasy pros. Right now Christian Watson is going 54th and Alec Pierce is going 82nd. Pierce is injured right now, so that's part of it. But for sure, you think about that. You want a little bit of a Christian Watson discount. It might be Alec Pierce, 54th seems
Heath Cummings
a little bit rich.
Dave Richard
That's exactly where I have him in my top 200.
Jamie
Okay.
Dave Richard
And I get it. I agree with you, Heath. It's rich for a dude who's had so many injuries. But last year and in previous years he's been a very high touchdown guy. He makes those splash plays. What about the idea of. All right, I'm nervous about drafting Christian Watson because I, I know he can miss some games. Could I also pair him with Matthew golden later in the draft? Do the Azer friendship strategy. That's another term that another podcast isn't allowed to use. Friendship strategy where you, you lock up theoretically the number one wide receiver on the Packers.
Heath Cummings
Yeah. Except that you do have the, the risk that it's just another Matt LaFleur offense and Christian Watson has 98 targets and Matthew golden has 87 and Tucker Graft has 86 and that's just what they've done.
Jamie
Yeah.
Heath Cummings
But there was a six game sample where Christian Watson got a 23 target share.
Jamie
So I, I think Tucker Craft was
Dave Richard
out taking out Dobbs and Wicks I think helps people buy into the packers passing game a little bit more. Maybe there will be a little bit more concentration among the targets between Watson and, and golden and Kraft and Jaden Reed. We can't forget about him too. He's probably going to see an uptick as well. It's. I, I don't mind taking the chance on Watson. I think he does have huge upside as we just talked about.
Jamie
Okay. You know, I think a good episode topic will be is let's look at ADPs of players on the same team and figure out who's the best value. Kyron Williams or Blake Corum, Christian Watson or Jaden Reed or Matthew Golden. That kind of stuff. Yeah, great idea, Adam. All right, Michael Patrick, fill in the blank. Blank will jump from outside a top 12 pick this year to a top five pick next year.
Heath Cummings
That's an easy one.
Dave Richard
I can think of Three young running backs that you can make the case for.
Adam Azer
Who?
Jamie
Genti Hampton.
Dave Richard
Genti Hampton and Jeremiah Love.
Jamie
Heath. Is that where you were going with?
Heath Cummings
I. I was thinking Jeremiah Love, but yeah, Gentian. I mean, one of Genty or Hampton might be a top 12 pick this year.
Jamie
Oh, yeah. But it will be a top five next year.
Heath Cummings
Right, but if they're inside the top 12 this year, they don't qualify, right?
Jamie
Yes.
Dave Richard
According to Michael Patrick's fill in the blank. Correct?
Heath Cummings
Yeah, I would say. I would say Jeremiah Loves probably the answer.
Jamie
Okay.
Dave Richard
If he's the answer, then we should be a lot more interested in drafting him.
Heath Cummings
Well, okay, I should clarify. The answer is probably blank because no one does it.
Jamie
Well, I also think. I also think that Jeremiah Love could. Could have a year where he's not. Where he's not like that great for fantasy, but he shows us enough. And then Connor's gone next year and. And then it's like, you know, wheels up, kind of big 80 poo. ADP boost. ADP ad. All right, this is from Eric.
Dave Richard
What happens after the cherries?
Jamie
Oh, man. Sorry. Can you talk for a second so I can queue up my. Eric.
Dave Richard
Eric's got a question. Fill in the blank. Blank will be a post hype sleeper.
Jamie
Yeah. Who's a post type sleeper guy? Someone who failed to live up to the expected jump, but now we're going to get something.
Dave Richard
Well, Watson would qualify for that, would he not?
Adam Azer
Yeah.
Dave Richard
Quentin Johnston.
Jamie
No, you can't answer him. We have a Chargers question later.
Heath Cummings
Can I say the 2025 rookie running back class?
Jamie
Oh, that's a good one. Yeah.
Dave Richard
Henderson especially.
Jamie
Yeah. I suggested Ricky Pearsall. In his career, Ricky Pearsall has seven or more targets in six games. Yeah, he has 85 yards or more in. In five of those six games. And in the other one he had six catches, 69 yards and a touchdown.
Dave Richard
Yep.
Jamie
He's really good per target last year. Super high. Very high. 8. Not super high, but 14.1 yard ADOT. He would fall into that sacrificial X category last year. I wonder if Mike Evans does more of the downfield stuff and Piersol can get back to like a 10, 11 yard, eight out and he's definitely on
Heath Cummings
the Christian Watson, Alec Pierce.
Dave Richard
Yes, yes. And you can get them later than those guys.
Jamie
But I don't know. I don't know if. What do you mean by that?
Heath Cummings
Boom bust. Wide receiver 3 who could win you a week and could go a month without topping 50 yards.
Jamie
Yeah.
Dave Richard
Or could put it all together. And have a really good year.
Jamie
If everyone's healthy, I think. I think Peircel's probably not going to matter much. But everyone being healthy is George Kittle coming off an ACL, Mike Evans at age 32 or 33, and Christian McCaffrey at age 30 coming off a 400 touch season. So maybe the young guy who's always hurt. By the way, how many of those
Heath Cummings
guys played more games than Ricky Pierce?
Dave Richard
All.
Adam Azer
Yeah.
Jamie
All right. Ghost Kerrigan says the Chargers receiver that will thrive the Most under Mike McDaniel's system is blank.
Dave Richard
Oh, so you're expecting this answer to be Quentin?
Jamie
No. Whatever you want.
Dave Richard
I think it's lad McConkey. Route running, versatility, good hands after catch ability. He's already shown it to us over the past two seasons. Just more so as a rookie when there wasn't as much target competition. And there's still going to be a lot of target competition. But for what McDaniel's looking for from this offense, I think McConkey is a great fit.
Heath Cummings
Yeah. At its best, from my view, the Mike, the Mike McDaniel offense is creating explosives. And I think Quentin Johnston's much better at creating explosives in lad McConkey is
Dave Richard
how many of those explosives were created by not Tyreek Hill and not Jalen Waddle? And maybe that's an unfair question because those two guys, I mean, he had him, he used them, they put up some huge numbers. Tyreek especially. I don't think he's got a Tyree Kill on his team right now. Maybe he's got a Jalen Waddle.
Jamie
But.
Heath Cummings
But if we're just saying, like, who's the fast guy?
Dave Richard
Lama Conkey? Slow.
Heath Cummings
I, I wouldn't say slow is like McConkey faster than Quentin Johnson.
Jamie
I think he's quicker than Quentin Johnston.
Dave Richard
He's definitely quicker and he can definitely change directions faster and he's got better hands.
Jamie
Well, he ran a better 40. I mean, I think anyway. Quentin Johnson ran a 4, 5, 2.
Heath Cummings
That's not very good. I thought, I thought he was faster than that.
Jamie
Well, that, you know, four, three, nine for lad McConkey. There was. There was a report. Not a report, but like a speculation from a writer. It said Quentin Johnson is going to benefit because he's going to. He's been miscast as this Mike Williams X receiver and Mike McDaniel is going to use him more on shorter stuff and he's going to excel after the catch. I'm surprised that the report. I'm sorry, Dave. I'm surprised the reporter picked Quentin Johnston for that because I really think Lad Bakonki is better at that than Quentin Johnson is.
Dave Richard
Yes. So what.
Heath Cummings
What does this. And maybe it means nothing, but in their careers, both lad McConkey and Quentin Johnston average 4.7 yak per reception. Johnston's had an A dot two yards higher than lad McConkey.
Jamie
Yeah, I don't know. I. I can tell you that in terms of explosives, you look at McConkey's rookie year, he was like, off the charts making big plays. I just think he's better than Quentin Johnson. But that. That doesn't mean that Johnson's not the better value because obviously you're all taking Conky ahead of Johnston, right?
Heath Cummings
Yeah.
Jamie
Who's the better value?
Heath Cummings
Oh, I think Johnson's a better value for sure. I don't. I'm not drafting Lad because he's going before I'll draft him.
Dave Richard
Where's he going?
Heath Cummings
Round four is a guess.
Jamie
Three, four turn. Quentin Johnson.
Dave Richard
I'm good with that. Ppr. I'm good with that.
Jamie
All right, next up from Stumble Bumble. And by the way, if I. I'm sorry, someone said in the chat, if I said Kittle Tours acl. My bad. It was his Achilles. Stumble Bumble says blank will blank and people will be blank. Blank. Blank will blank and people will be blank blank.
Dave Richard
Stumble Bumble will ask a weird fill in the blank and people will be clueless with what to do with it.
Jamie
So I have one here. You have one?
Heath Cummings
I've got one.
Jamie
Okay, go ahead.
Heath Cummings
Kyler Murray will win the starting job in Minnesota, and people will be talking about him as a top 12 quarterback.
Jamie
I guess my only issue is, is anyone in the world not think Kyler Murray is not. Is going to win the.
Heath Cummings
Well, I actually was on the the Football Guys Dynasty podcast with Jeff Bell last night, and we talked about this because. And this was kind of a joke on Twitter, like the A.J. brown thing. Everybody knew he was going to be traded to the Patriots, but as soon as he was traded to the Patriots, his value shot up. Everybody expected that Rashi Rice was going to get out of jail after 30 days because that's how long his sentence was. But as soon as people saw him walking out of jail, his ADP shot back up. Everybody pretty much expects Kyler Murray to win the starting job in Minnesota, but as soon as he wins the starting job in Minnesota, we're going to see a bunch of articles about do you remember how much Kyler runs? And now he's got Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison Kyler Murray could be a top 12 quarterback.
Dave Richard
Yeah.
Jamie
Okay. I accept it. So I'm going to throw one out that I don't necessarily believe, but I just want to see how you guys feel about it. This is a player that I feel like has fallen into this black hole of never being talked about on our show. Blank will blank and people will be blank. Blank. Javante Williams will struggle and people will be adding Jaden Blue. What do you think?
Heath Cummings
I don't really think I believe that Javante Williams is going to struggle, but I do think that you're right. There was some talk early in the off season about how they were done with Jade on blue and now it sounds like now what I'm reading and Dave, maybe you've seen something else. It's the Cowboys really want Blue to be their RB2, but he can't be as bad as he was last camp.
Dave Richard
I think they want him to be the RB2 because he offers some speed that they don't have from any of their other running backs.
Jamie
Someone suggesting Dan saying Jeremiah Love will split carries and people will be mad.
Heath Cummings
Sure.
Dave Richard
Yeah. But we're expecting that to a degree.
Jamie
Yeah.
Dave Richard
It just depends on how much. How many carries he'll split.
Jamie
Okay. All right, let's take a break. The fantasy football today will go to break and people will be very patient and Adam will eat his cherries after this or during this. With my Sapphire preferred card, we took
Adam Azer
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Jamie
five times the points on Chase Travel, two times the points on all other travel, plus 100 hotel credit.
Dave Richard
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Jamie
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Adam Azer
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Jamie
Delicious. Delicious. Commercial break Kaden says Blank will greatly outperform their ADP and nobody will be surprised.
Dave Richard
Pick an old guy. Mahomes Devonte, Mike Evans. Kelsey, would you really be surprised if any of those guys finished top 12 at their position?
Jamie
I think based on conversations we've had on the show that Maybe our favorite ADP is Isaiah Likely's is going 125th overall according to fantasy pros and 113th overall on draft sharks. 95th on CBS but tight end 13 for Likely on Fantasy pros and Draft Sharks.
Adam Azer
Right.
Jamie
I feel like that's kind of like the FFT guy right now and just one of the best values.
Dave Richard
Okay, sure. But I think some people would be surprised if he outperformed his adp. When it's a name, you know, that's going later in drafts because of the Grandma Gilmore rule. And then they end up overcoming it. You're, you're not going to be surprised. You'll be like, yeah, I should have just drafted the really good player.
Jamie
Bill Van Sickle says blank is the worst possible addition to any fruit salad. And the answer is bananas at. Dave, Richard is disgusting.
Dave Richard
The, the fact that he called me disgusting for liking bananas really shocked me. I've. I've always believed that bananas were very popular. You see them at every single buffet table that you go to. Not that you guys go to a lot of buffets, but I mean, look
Jamie
at me, you know, I do, but they're not in a fruit salad, Dave. They're, they're, you know, they're.
Heath Cummings
I've seen them in a fruit salad and the problem with them in a fruit salad is bananas, when sliced and mixed with other fruit and sit there for any period of time at all, they don't last like the other fruit does. They're going to start turning a little bit brown. They're going to get a little bit mushy. The rest of your fruit's going to taste like mushy banana. I, I think, I think banana is a fruit that should be eaten on its own.
Dave Richard
How, how long is your fruit salad party for that to happen? Are we talking like a 18 hour layout? I've seen bananas laid out in a fruit salad. They don't turn brown and mushy.
Heath Cummings
I'm, I'm
Jamie
so first of all, he's. I mean, your takes on fruit salad have been necessarily agreed with all of them, but they've been really good. I mean, I love. You're coming out.
Heath Cummings
You didn't have a lot of fruit salad takes, did you?
Jamie
Not really. I mean, you really got like analytical about this. It's great. However, you say mushy instead of mushy and that is interesting to me and that I think is wrong. I think you lose points for pronunciation there.
Heath Cummings
We should have a fruit salad tournament.
Jamie
We do have a fruit salad poll on YouTube and it's pretty close. Oh no, we have a group chat poll. Nevermind. Do you like group chats? Yes, 54%. No, I'm with Heath. 46%.
Adam Azer
Okay.
Jamie
Thank you to Thomas for not putting. Yes, I'm with Adam because there's no way that would have been Winning. But, yeah, pretty close there with the group chats. All right, look, I think. I think banana is fine in a. In a fruit salad, Dave. It's. It's not the worst possible addition. I think grapefruit is, because grapefruit's like a practical joke. It's not really a fruit. It's just horrible.
Dave Richard
Yeah, that doesn't belong in a fruit salad. But you. You put bananas with. With strawberries and you've got a delectable treat that everybody would enjoy. And not strawberry.
Heath Cummings
Banana milkshake. That's my go.
Dave Richard
Oh, yeah.
Heath Cummings
Back in the day. Yeah.
Jamie
Sonic.
Heath Cummings
That's a Sonic. Yeah. Yeah.
Dave Richard
And think about all the other things you could do with bananas, banana splits, banana smoothies. You can add it to your protein shake. And by the way, fantasy commercials know that I know a thing or two about those.
Jamie
Sam. Sam Davis, one of our other producers, Sam Davis III, he put up the YouTube poll about the salads, about the group chat. Sorry. So, Sam, thank you for not putting my name on the yes option. All right, we got a few more fill in the blanks. One is from James and he has four different fill in the blanks. So James says Blank will outperform his ADP the most at tight end. And Blank will be the biggest disappointment at tight end.
Heath Cummings
It's probably likely in McBride,
Dave Richard
I suppose. I think Pitts can be a pretty big disappointment. We've seen that plenty of times throughout his career. Where's Fannin's ADP?
Jamie
Fannon is tight end seven, going 95th.
Dave Richard
Yeah, that. That's. He can outperform that. And I think likely is a good one. I think Chigo conquo could be a good one. Top perform ADP with this Heath tight end seems kind of deep this year.
Jamie
With this next guy that I'm going to talk about as being a disappointment. I. I don't hate where he's going necessarily, overall, but among tight ends, Tucker Kraft as tight end five. Little nerve wracking for me, but 80. 82nd overall, not bad.
Dave Richard
If you knew he was going to be okay, like he's participating in training camp, looks fine. Would you change that opinion?
Jamie
Not really, because you know what I'm going to say. I say the same thing every time. It's like, yeah, he's playing, he's. He's looks good, whatever. But when he's actually on the field, we don't know that he's going to be the same until the following year. I will say, though, that everything we saw from Christian Watson last year, we talked about him half hour ago. Whatever. He was coming off a torn acl.
Dave Richard
It's true.
Jamie
There have actually been as I dug into it a little bit and looked at guys coming off major injuries, there have been more success stories than. Than I was aware of. So it does make me feel like I'm too low. If I'm just ruling out guys coming off serious injuries, they sometimes they are better than, than I think. So yeah, let's keep that in mind. But craft like I expect craft to be could be at some point in training camp full go. I just don't know that he, he, he is another guy. He was on pace for like 90 targets or something like that. If that I don't even know. You know, he was a little unsustainable. All right, next one from James Blank will be this year's Brian Thomas Jr. Highly touted young wide receiver who totally disappears.
Heath Cummings
Hopefully nobody
Dave Richard
totally disappears. I don't think Tetaro will totally disappear. I don't think a Buko will do what he did at the end of last year.
Jamie
Doesn't have to be a second year, second year guy.
Dave Richard
Well, where does Luther Burden fall on this list? Are we sure he's just gonna be a house of fire right from the jump? He, he could disappoint. Just thinking about how, how many other players are getting targets in Chicago. Is Malik Neighbors considered young? Yes.
Jamie
Yes.
Dave Richard
Could he disappoint coming off of a torn acl plus other stuff? Yes.
Heath Cummings
Yeah. I don't, I don't want it to be any of the second year guys but if I was looking for the profile that was most similar to Brian Thomas Jr. It might be a book. Actually had a higher adot as a rookie than Brian Thomas Jr. Did. If, if he just is. If Chris Godwin takes that slot role and has the easy targets and Ibuka is working more downfield. It could be. And he's already been banged up and we've seen injuries impact him a little bit in his career. If he gets a little banged up and he's running 16 yards downfield every play.
Jamie
Yeah. Okay.
Dave Richard
Actually good point. Yeah.
Jamie
Next up. But, but we expect a different role for Abuka, right Dave? I mean that's kind of.
Dave Richard
I think he'll do more than just be the downfield guy. I think they, they're. I think they're going to use him in every way possible whereas Go. And I think Heath is actually dead on on this, which made me appreciate. The point is that Godwin will go back to the slot and be a short area target. A Check down guy. You know, an easy button, as it were, for Baker Mayfield. But I think a book is going to get a couple of layup targets and a couple of long ball targets every week, too.
Jamie
All right, let's go to our next one. Kirk Cousins will start blank games in Las Vegas before passing the torch to Fernando Mendoza.
Dave Richard
I'm going to say week 14.
Heath Cummings
Whoa.
Dave Richard
That's after their bye week. They'll be at home. There are. They have a lot of easy matchups early in the year, and then in the middle of the year, right when you might think that they would turn to Mendoza. They've. I think there's like one game against the jets in there, but there's a ton of tough matchups.
Jamie
I will. I will buy you. I will buy you a bunch of bananas.
Dave Richard
Done.
Jamie
For two straight months.
Dave Richard
Done.
Jamie
If. If he's starting in week 14 or I guess week 13 or whatever.
Dave Richard
Well, week 13 is thereby okay.
Jamie
If Kirk Cousins is still starting at week 12 and Fernando Mendoza is healthy. One bunch of bananas per week for two months.
Dave Richard
And I don't have to give you anything in return?
Jamie
Nope. I feel very. First of all, bananas. What $2,2 50
Heath Cummings
banana cost?
Jamie
No, a bunch of bananas is like.
Dave Richard
Now you're talking about buying 15 bunches of bananas.
Jamie
All right, so that's like 10 weeks. So we're talking 25.
Dave Richard
It could be like half your paycheck.
Jamie
25, $30 here.
Heath Cummings
I'll. I'll. I'll give my bold prediction. Week two Raiders. Kirk Cousins is a disaster. Week one and the Raiders lose to the Dolphins and they just immediately pivot at home and they're like, oh, I
Dave Richard
mean, I think if it's that. If it's that close to being.
Jamie
That's the game of the week. Yeah,
Dave Richard
if it's that close. Between Cousins and Mendoza, I think they start Mendoza Week 1. What better matchup for them than home against the Dolphins? For Fernando Mendoza to get his feet wet. It does not get easier than the Miami Dolphins this year.
Jamie
All right, the last running back I'm comfortable having as my RB one is blank.
Dave Richard
Kyron Williams,
Jamie
Breece hall going right around there.
Heath Cummings
Yeah, that's the range.
Jamie
Yeah. They're back to back on fantasy pros then. Javante. Oh, Travis Hn. I'd be fine with him.
Heath Cummings
Like, Camara is going to stick around, isn't he?
Dave Richard
Maybe.
Jamie
I don't know. I don't. How many carries is Alvin Camaro going to get? Very few.
Heath Cummings
What if. What if he just takes the targets?
Jamie
That's the thing. Like he, you know, that many running backs. I'm sorry, Dave. There aren't that many running backs are getting a lot of catches these days. So when you compare to Travis etn, Travis Hn, to Kyron Williams, who's going to get more catches? Probably Achan. With or without camara?
Heath Cummings
I have a Chan predicted for 4 more catches than Kyron.
Jamie
Yeah.
Dave Richard
With or without Chimera? The Saints can live with or without Chimera.
Jamie
One of my favorite songs, the Camara version from Brynn. Our last one is from Brynn. Brynn has three. The first tight. There's so many tight end ones. The first tight end I'm targeting is blank.
Dave Richard
Whichever one presents good value.
Jamie
No, but.
Dave Richard
Well, I'm not really targeting any one guy.
Heath Cummings
I think my answer has to be La Porta because he goes before pits usually.
Dave Richard
I'm not targeting any one specific tight end. I'm sorry.
Jamie
Yes, you are. Blank is the value wide receiver that I'm hoping to sneak away with. Oh, man.
Dave Richard
I got two Parker Washington, Wondell Robinson, and they're the same kind of profile. Short area receivers, high volume. I'm. I'm playing the fantasy game, not the who looks good in highlights game.
Heath Cummings
I will say Terry McLaurin and Quentin Johnston.
Jamie
Yeah, I was going to say Quentin Johnson and on a high end, A.J. brown.
Dave Richard
For me, you guys are going to steam up Quentin Johnston into round six. No, there's going to be some disappointed people.
Jamie
For my rookie draft, I should open up spots on my roster blank. The draft happens.
Adam Azer
Oh, I get it.
Jamie
I get it before. For my rookie draft, I should open up spots on my roster blank. Like the draft happens after the draft happens.
Heath Cummings
Oh, ask Dan how that turned out for him. I would say the answers before.
Jamie
Oh, man, that's great stuff. All right.
Dave Richard
Whatever is the least amount of work for the commissioner or you just don't
Heath Cummings
have a rookie draft like Adam. That's true.
Jamie
There will be a rookie draft. I just, you know, the season is 10 weeks away or something like that. I only know that because. Is that right? That sound right?
Heath Cummings
Ten and a half. Yeah. Ten weeks and two days.
Jamie
I saw Scott Hansen tweet, I'll see you in 11 Sundays or something. I was like, oh, wow, it's coming up.
Dave Richard
How dumb. What a dumb thing to do. Tweet how many Sundays there are before the football season.
Heath Cummings
Did he steal that from you, Dave?
Dave Richard
Yeah, everybody stole it from me. It's why I don't do it anymore.
Jamie
Let's check in on our. Our fruit salad poll.
Heath Cummings
It's Not a fruit salad poll.
Dave Richard
It's not, dude, it's a group chat.
Jamie
No, there's a new one. It's a fruit salad poll. Now pick your ideal fruit for a fruit salad. Bananas, cherries, strawberries or grapes. This is very lopsided.
Dave Richard
I didn't say bananas were the best one.
Heath Cummings
I would say strawberries. The answer.
Dave Richard
I would too.
Jamie
I was going to say strawberries, but I feel like I listed grapes first yesterday on the show. So I felt obligated to pick grapes, which came in second place to strawberries, which has 63% of the vote. Good bananas though, above cherries. That's the good news.
Heath Cummings
Cherries are the worst. I think we established yesterday the worst.
Jamie
I mean, they're great fruit. They're just bad for a fruit salad.
Heath Cummings
Right, because you have to eat fruit salad in public. You can't eat fruit salad in private.
Adam Azer
Exactly.
Dave Richard
What other show can help you win your fantasy leagues and help you set up a kick ass fruit salad at your picnic?
Jamie
We have some more. Fill in the blanks from Wisco Disco. Blank is the worst type of bagel.
Dave Richard
Sesame
Heath Cummings
dry.
Jamie
What is that?
Heath Cummings
A bagel without butter on it.
Dave Richard
Oh, right.
Jamie
Yeah. I think like a chocolate chip bagel is revolting. A blueberry bagel is revolting.
Heath Cummings
Oh, I love blueberry. Blueberry bagel with peanut butter.
Jamie
I'm willing to try it. I'm willing to try it.
Dave Richard
I'd be willing to try it too, but that's a contender for disgusting bagel sandwich.
Jamie
Yeah, I'll try it this week. I might try it today. Jeremiah. Oh, this is from the blank Will blank and people will blank. Blank Jeremiah level. Oh, we did that one. I'm sorry, this was from.
Dave Richard
That's right.
Jamie
This is from. This is one of our tight end ones. Chigo conquo will outperform his adp.
Dave Richard
Yeah, we mentioned him.
Heath Cummings
Does he have one?
Jamie
I think he's in the tight end 15, 16 range.
Dave Richard
He's another name that's going to steam up once training camp opens and the reports come out of Washington. It will really help him if IUK does not end up with the commanders.
Jamie
Yeah, I think the commanders would be certifiable right now if they like Brandon. You is not putting out a good audition tape these days.
Dave Richard
No, it's almost tampering.
Heath Cummings
Are we going to argue? Going to have a Greg Dulcich vs Chico Conquo Disagreement on the show?
Dave Richard
You might get there at some point. I beyond the box a lot.
Jamie
Yeah, baby.
Dave Richard
I like them both.
Jamie
I did not go to the store Just for the cherries bit. To answer your question, I went to the store the other day and bought cherries and they're great. It's almost like I don't want the show to end. We're having too much fun. But I'm gonna end it here. Oh, also 9am tomorrow, right? Yep.
Heath Cummings
Well, how about 11:30am today in like an hour and a half?
Dave Richard
Hell, yeah.
Heath Cummings
Matthew Rupert from the Couch Scouts coming on to talk about dynasty, rankings risers and fallers. He's also a big Devi guy, so going to ask him a little couple questions about the 27 class and like, what college players we should be watching early this season to kind of determine if those 27 picks are going to really be as good as we thought they are.
Jamie
Okay, listen, if he, if he says water cooler stats, I'm going to come on the show and give him a piece of my mind.
Heath Cummings
That'd be fantastic.
Adam Azer
All right.
Jamie
For Dave and Heath and Thomas and Sam, I'm Adam. Talk to you tomorrow, 9am Eastern on fantasy football today. See you.
Adam Azer
Paramount podcasts.
Dave Richard
Everything has to come to an end.
Adam Azer
Now streaming only on Paramount. Plus, the acclaimed series the Shy reaches its final chapter.
Dave Richard
We from Chicago. It's my home.
Adam Azer
From Emmy award winner Lena Wade.
Dave Richard
There are two types of people in this world. Those that reach for more and those that just enjoy what they got. This the shy Anything's possible Singing this song unto you.
Adam Azer
The Shy the final season now streaming only on Paramount.
This episode centers on a series of “fill in the blank” fantasy football questions provided by listeners and the hosts. The crew debates the fantasy prospects for wide receivers on the same team repeating elite seasons, Green Bay Packers' WR1, the best value among Chargers WRs, ADP risers, post-hype sleepers, and more. The episode is marked by an analytical but freewheeling tone, with plenty of humor, side debates (including a heated fruit salad discussion), and deep statistical context.
| Timestamp | Segment/Question | |------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:43 | WR teammate repeat stat (top-12 PPR finishes) | | 04:22 | Top trios and target share context | | 09:58 | Running back third down snaps and Aaron Rodgers’ checkdown habits | | 17:54 | News & notes: Ravens, Lions, Jets | | 20:49 | Christian Watson’s best-case WR ranking | | 26:18 | Who jumps from outside the top-12 picks to next year’s top-5? | | 27:28 | Post-hype sleepers | | 29:28 | Chargers WR who benefits most under McDaniel | | 36:11 | Player who will greatly outperform ADP and it won't surprise anyone | | 37:24 | Fruit salad debate | | 40:20 | Best and worst ADP tight ends | | 42:28 | Young WR who might “totally disappear” like Brian Thomas Jr. | | 44:20 | Kirk Cousins: How long as Raiders' starter? | | 46:12 | Last RB comfortable with as your RB1? | | 47:34 | First TE and value WR targets | | 50:09 | Fruit salad poll winner: Strawberries |
The episode is lively and playful. The hosts use a conversational style rich in stats and context but not devoid of self-aware ribbing and running gags (food, phrasing, group chats). They move seamlessly between fine-grained player debates and strategic, systematic thinking about drafting and ADPs.
For all fantasy football takes, rankings, and plenty of side helpings of humor, Fantasy Football Today continues to be a must-listen for managers who want both serious analysis and a sense of community fun.