Most Upside in Rounds 3-5 (05/25 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

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Fantasy Football Today (05/25 Podcast): Most Upside in Rounds 3-5

Air Date: May 26, 2026
Hosts/Analysts: Adam Aizer (Host), Heath Cummings, Dave Richard, Jamie Eisenberg
Main Theme:
Analyzing the highest-upside fantasy football picks by position in rounds 3, 4, and 5 of CBS ADP, focusing on non-injury upside within draft clusters. The group debates running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, and quarterbacks who could offer league-winning ceilings, providing data, roster context, and recent NFL news to inform their picks.

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Quick Navigation (Timestamps)

• Episode Introduction & Setup
• Key NFL News and Player Updates
• Round 3 Most Upside Debate
• Wide Receivers Round 3
• Tight End Brock Bowers’ Upside
• Round 4 Running Backs
• Round 4 Wide Receivers
• Round 4: QB/Lamar Jackson v. Loveland
• Round 5 Running Backs
• Round 5 Wide Receivers
• Round 5: Joe Burrow’s Upside

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Key Discussion Points & Analyst Insights

1. Episode Set-up: Upside Criteria

• Looking for round 3–5 picks at RB, WR, TE, and QB with highest non-injury upside—who can truly break out or make a league-winning impact.
• Importance of opportunity: touches/carries for RB, targets for WR/TE.

  “Wide receivers who hit 19+ PPR PPG have all had 9.6+ targets per game except Debo with a ton of rushing work.” – Adam (06:16)

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2. News & Notes

• Malik Nabers’ health/availability threatens early-season value.
• “If you told everybody he’s missing four games but then is back to the same old Malik, maybe you’d still draft him in the 20s… but the real risk is he’s not the same.” – Heath (08:05)
• Matthew Stafford extension: Rams’ offense should remain strong, supporting Kyren Williams’ touchdown upside.
• Tyreek Hill reportedly may miss half the season; Chiefs don’t plan to extend Rashee Rice yet.
• Dalton Kincaid “feels best he’s felt” off injuries, significant per-target efficiency.
• Trade/contract rumors for Brandon Aiyuk and Keenan Allen.
• Bryce Young reportedly looking improved at OTAs.

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3. Round 3 Running Backs: Who Has the Most Upside?

Candidates: Jeremiah Love, Breece Hall, Kyren Williams

• Heath: Kyren Williams — “The Rams’ offense is just better, if he keeps the goal-line work, massive TD upside.” (13:46)
• Dave: Jeremiah Love — “I think he’s got the most talent of these three… could lead this trio in total yardage.” (13:55)
• Jamie: Breece Hall — “Sharing less than the others, easily the most touches if things go right—he’s proven he can be a featured guy.” (15:12)
• Stat/Note: Rams had 24 carries from inside the 3-yard line last season (Jet/Cardinals combined: 17). Kyren had 13 of those. (23:07, 29:13)
• Summary: Analysts split: Kyren for safe TDs, Love for talent/yardage, Hall for workhorse upside if Jets’ offense improves.

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4. Round 3 Wide Receivers: Who Has the Most Upside?

First Group: Nico Collins, Malik Nabers, AJ Brown

• Heath: “If healthy, Nabers has the most upside. If not, Nico.” (24:08)
• Dave/Jamie/Host: All lean Nico for now based on team, production, and availability. (24:52)
• AJ Brown Discussion: Questioned for not being “the pick”—concern about changing teams/quarterback uncertainty dampens upside versus Collins/Nabers. (25:13–27:20)

Second Group: Olave, Devonta Smith, McMillan, Abuka, T. Higgins

• All Analysts: Lean toward Ameka Egbuka (Abuka) for highest upside, given his expected ascending target share in TB and past rookie production before injury. (28:15–31:39)

  “If we get good Baker, then I think there’s a very good chance Abuka has a fantastic season—highest upside.” – Heath (30:54)

• Devonta Smith and Higgins also discussed as known quantities with situational upside, but floor/TDs may limit true breakout.

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5. Round 3 Tight End: Brock Bowers’ Upside

• Only wide receivers N. Collins or AJ Brown could possibly match Bowers’ relative upside at TE, but in terms of sheer positional difference-maker, Bowers is a candidate for overall “highest upside.” (32:05)
• Most WRs have higher total points upside, but Bowers’ gap over replacement could be greater.

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6. Round 4 Running Backs: Scatterbow, Etienne, Javonte Williams, Judkins, Bucky Irving

• Dave: Cam Scatterbow — “Sample last year showed a three-down workload and pass game use; Ravens want to run.” (33:05)
• Jamie: Likes both sophomores—Scatterbow & Judkins, slight lean to Scatterbow given 2025 productivity and Harbaugh’s history. (33:52)
• Heath: Quinshon Judkins — “Slightly better runner, and Scatterbow’s receiving will shrink as Neighbors & Likely grow in the pass game.” (34:56)
• Javonte Williams considered safer due to offense but lacks passing game spike; Bucky Irving lower due to split and situation.

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7. Round 4 Wide Receivers: Garrett Wilson, Zay Flowers, Lad McConkey, Luther Burden

• Zay Flowers: Heath & Jamie side with Flowers (“Top-10 WR if BAL passes more and TDs climb” – 38:48; 39:36)
• Garrett Wilson: Dave’s pick based on volume/track record; best QB play in years
• Luther Burden: Jamie notes DJ Moore’s vacated targets, elite advanced stats, and possible Ben Johnson feature role, but probably needs situation to break extremely well to surpass others. (39:36)

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8. Round 4: Lamar Jackson vs. Drake May vs. Colston Loveland

• Consensus: Lamar Jackson has the highest per-game upside—“the only guy here with realistic 30 PPG upside” (41:49–42:51)
• Loveland: Only a consideration if positional value considered—could be best tight end in fantasy.
• Drake May: Historic college efficiency, potential Top 5 fantasy QB, but ceiling below Lamar’s.

“Lamar is the upside play… 29 to 31 PPG possible if everything hits.” – Dave (41:49) “Even Drake May’s best is only 80% of Lamar’s top upside.” – Heath (42:21)

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9. Round 5 Running Backs: DeAndre Swift, David Montgomery, Basil Tutin

• Jamie/Dave: Tutin has the most upside IF he grabs the main role and replicates ETN’s usage in the Jags’ new offense (47:58).
• Heath: Swift — “I don’t see Tutin getting a three-down role; Swift would be Top 12 if Herbert is hurt” (48:52)
• Montgomery: Safer floor (short yardage/goal line work in Houston), but likely not a league-winning ceiling like Tutin or Swift if they hit.

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10. Round 5 Wide Receivers

Group 1: DJ Moore, Jalen Waddle, Terry McLaurin, Marvin Harrison Jr.

• Heath: Terry McLaurin — “Should be clear No. 1, could see 9 targets/game, big year with Daniels.” (54:11)
• Jamie: McLaurin as well — opportunity, vacated targets.
• Dave: Jalen Waddle — “Broncos traded for him for a reason; could lead team in targets, top-12 potential.”
• Marvin Harrison Jr.: Not the pick, given target uncertainty and offense.

Group 2: Jameson Williams, Alec Pierce, Rome Odunze

• Jamie: Alec Pierce — “Huge contract, easy path to being the guy if healthy.” (56:56)
• Heath/Dave: Rome Odunze — “If he becomes clear No. 1, could have immense upside. Elite metrics pre-injury” (57:50).
• Jameson Williams: Not consensus; worries about role vs. LaPorta and St. Brown in DET’s TE-heavy scheme.

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11. Round 5: Burrow vs. Others

• Joe Burrow: Highest absolute ceiling in the round (can get to 27–28 PPG; top 3 at position). (60:22)
• Relative to position: Still likely to lap round-mates.

“Could be top-3 at position, I don’t think these other guys [in round 5] can.” – Jamie (61:06)

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Breece Hall vs. Kyren Williams touches:

  “Hall for the season… dominated carries, but they just couldn’t really run because they stunk.” – Adam (19:38)

• On Ameka Egbuka:

  “We saw enough from him to recognize he is a great talent who should command a lot of targets…close call between him, McMillan, and Devonta Smith, but Abuka is the one I’m drafting.” – Dave (28:15)

• Lamar Jackson Upside:

  “When Lamar’s been at his best, there’s almost nobody who touches him.” – Heath (42:51)

• On Montgomery v. Mixon, Houston:

  “When you’re drafting David Montgomery, you’re settling for him, hoping for 10+ TDs and maybe more rushing, but upside to be 1200+ rusher is a stretch.” – Jamie (52:10)

• Patience Poll!

  “The only negative… I wish I were a more patient person. I’m working on it.” – Adam (62:35)

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Top Takeaways (Round-by-Round, Position-by-Position)

| Round | RB | WR | TE/QB | |-----------|---------------------|---------------------|---------------------------------| | 3 | Williams (safe), Hall (touches), Love (talent/receiving) | Nico (if healthy), Nabers (if healthy), Egbuka (upside) | Bowers (difference-maker vs. avg TE) | | 4 | Scottaboo/Judkins (youth+workload), ETN/Javonte (safe, but less 3-down) | Zay Flowers, Burden (sleeper), Garrett Wilson (volume) | Lamar Jackson (elite upside), Loveland (if TE premium) | | 5 | Tutin (upside if starter), Swift (safe/floor), Montgomery (role) | McLaurin, Waddle, Odunze, Pierce (all situational ceilings) | Burrow (top-3 ceiling at position) |

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Summary: For Listeners Who Missed It

This episode deep-dived into 2026 fantasy drafts, using current CBS ADP to compare groups of same-round, same-position players and debate pure, non-injury upside. The crew mixed data with subjective analysis, referencing historical PPR thresholds (e.g., RBs >19 PPG need 21+ touches), NFL news, and changing NFL depth charts to guide their calls.
Running back debates centered on Kyren Williams’ TD ceiling, Breece Hall’s projected touches, and Jeremiah Love’s talent. At wide receiver, Nico Collins and Ameka Abuka led their groups, with upside tied to target dominance and scheme.
Lamar Jackson (QB) and Brock Bowers (TE) stood out as unique positional difference-makers, while sleepers and post-hype picks (Scatterbow, Judkins, Tutin, Odunze, Pierce) offered avenues to league-winning value if team context breaks right.
The episode concluded with discussion on positional replacements, the subjective value of floor vs. ceiling, and even a tongue-in-cheek poll about which host displays the most patience.

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For quick reference or a deeper dive into a particular player’s path to upside, check the timestamps listed above.

Transcript

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[Dave]

This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports.

[Host]

What a play. Can you believe this?

[Heath]

No, I can't.

[Dave]

It's time to dominate your fantasy league.

[Host]

Off to the races and he stays on his feet.

[Dave]

This is gonna go the distance.

[Heath]

Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.

[Host]

And good morning and happy Tuesday to everybody. Hope everyone had a great three day weekend. Welcome to fantasy football. Today we're looking at groups of players in the same round at the same position. Who has the most upside doesn't necessarily mean you should draft them first in that group, but it's a fun conversation to have. Good morning, Dave.

[Dave]

Is this a game of who has more?

[Host]

I didn't think of it that way, but it certainly can be. Good morning, Heath.

[Heath]

Hi, Adam.

[Host]

Hey, Jamie. Good morning. Or hey, good morning, Jamie.

[Jamie]

Congratulations to your next.

[Host]

Somebody had to say it. Thank you. Thank you, jb.

[Dave]

Yeah, they're fun.

[Host]

They're not that fun, I can tell you. You know, I was group group chatting. Yeah, no, I was. I was, you know.

[Dave]

Are you kidding me?

[Host]

Listen, listen. I was group texting with my cousins are big Knicks fans. And they say they were almost on the verge of tears during the trophy presentation. Like, we killed them. We destroyed them three games in a row. We're killing everyone. This isn't fun. This is. This is embarrassing.

[Dave]

No, what you're saying is embarrassing.

[Host]

This is.

[Dave]

As someone whose basketball team hasn't, like, barely sniffed the playoffs in two decades, feels like two decades. It's more like one. Like, I would be having the time of my life if my team were in the finals right now. And you're not calling them fun. You're not allowed to watch anymore. You're not allowed to watch your team in the finals. That's it. That's it.

[Host]

I'm sure, I'm sure I'll have tennis and softball matches. Conflicting. But it's softball matches. It's too. Oh, yeah. Softball. Softball matches. Too easy. It's just too easy right now. You know, it's. It's hard to.

[Dave]

What do you want?

[Jamie]

Who do you want to see?

[Host]

Spurs. Spurs. And seven is my. Is my Western Conference hope. You know, I think we can take them. I don't think we could take a healthy Thunder, but now you never know. They're playing great anyway. Also, you know, the other thing is they've clinched all three rounds on the road, which is a little anti climactic. Like I don't get to celebrate with their fans, but you know, Nixon, five. Do they still do two, three, two, or they do two, two, one, one, one.

[Jamie]

Oh, my God.

[Host]

In the finals. They do one, one, one now.

[Jamie]

Yes.

[Host]

Okay, that Nick said six. All right, so this episode's about upside. So I did all this research this morning that I don't think is going to really apply to anyone. We talk about today because we're starting in round three. But I just thought I have some interesting numbers. I think you might find them a little fascinating. Just for your round one and two guys, maybe round three. What do you need to be a running back who averages 19 or more PPR fantasy points per game over the last five years? Most of them had 21 touches per game. And if they didn't, almost all of the guys who didn't have 21 touches per game had at least four catches per game. It's just a number you might want to look for. Wide receivers. This One was interesting. 20 wide receivers averaged 19 or more fantasy points per game in PPR over the last five years. All of them. All of them average 9.6 or more targets per game. Except for Debo Samuel when he had all those eight rushing touchdowns, 400ish rushing yards, whatever it was, that was the only one. 9.6 targets per game to get to 19 or more PPR fantasy points per game for a wide receiver. I started this research, guys, because of Colson Loveland, and can he get enough targets to hit a certain number? So I went with 14 or more PPR fantasy points per game for a tight end to get that. Over the last five years, most of them, other than George Kittle, have averaged seven or more targets per game. Kittle three times and Tucker Kraft in eight games last year are the only tight ends who got to 14 or more points per game without seven or more targets. How about 15 or more points per game? That's a more exclusive club. All of the guys. I think There have been seven tight ends in the last five years who've gotten to 15 points per game. They've all averaged 8.4 targets per game or more, except for George Kittle. So that's just a number there. 15 points per game is really elite. Would you set. Would you. How many tight ends would you draft and be disappointed if they averaged exactly 15 points per game?

[Heath]

Two.

[Jamie]

Two.

[Host]

Okay. So you take that for Loveland.

[Jamie]

Yes.

[Dave]

Are you kidding? Of course.

[Host]

Yeah. Would you take 14 points per game for leveling?

[Dave]

Yes.

[Host]

Okay. You think he'll get eight or more targets per game? No, I think he'll get seven.

[Dave]

Around seven?

[Jamie]

Yeah, I think it'll be around eight per game.

[Heath]

Heath, I'm trying to do some Math. So that's 136 targets. So I.

[Host]

That's eight or seven. That's eight. Yeah.

[Heath]

Okay. Eight per game is 136 targets. I. I think somebody on the bears between Burden O'Dunze and Loveland will get to eight. I have all three of them at

[Host]

seven, seven and a half. Okay, well, that's great. That's great for. For Loveland. All right, so, yeah, that's the elites. That's what we're looking at in terms of touches and targets. Heath, what's. What are we looking at for FFT Dynasty this week?

[Heath]

I got Smitty coming on in about an hour and 10 minutes. We're playing two today. It's a double header. We're about some of the injury story lines that we're watching going into this season and if any of those matter for a Dynasty perspective other than the fact that they might be cheaper to acquire right now.

[Host]

Okay, well certainly the Malik Neighbors is going to be discussed on that show. We'll get to him in a minute. Mailbag Thursday Thursday Yay. Thursday Mailbag Email us at fantasy football cbsi.com we got a lot of emails so a lot to catch up on. News and notes Heath Malik Neighbors Giants aren't sure when he's going to be able to play. Looking at early CBS ADP is going, I think 25th overall. Where do we need to be drafting Malik Neighbors?

[Heath]

I think I've got him right around 30, maybe just ahead of. I think it, it's interesting because it's not just when he's going to play but if he's going to be the same guy. I think if you told everybody, you know what he's going to start on the pup, he's not going to play the first four weeks, but then he's going to be the Malik Neighbors that we've seen in the past for the last 13 weeks of the season. We might still take him at 25th, but the concern is that not just that he misses a couple games to start of the year, but that he's not the same guy.

[Dave]

Yep, moved him down this morning. Round four.

[Host]

Wow. Well, you know, in the spirit of the discussion we're having today for thinking about Upside down, you know, right now he's going in between Nico Collins and A.J. brown, but I would expect that to drop to the Chris olave, Devonte Smith Tet McMillan a Mecca, Buka T Higgins range late round three and into round four. Those guys are all round three picks right now on CBS, but we're talking about Malik Neighbors. Jamie. So we got a 30th overall roughly for Heath. We got round four for Dave which is 37th or later. What about you for Neighbors or we

[Dave]

call him 40th overall for me.

[Host]

Okay, 40th.

[Jamie]

He's the end around 3.

[Host]

36 right in the middle but very adorbs. Okay, that's Neighbors. More news. Matthew Stafford signed a contract extension through 2027. So Dave, what do you think that would mean for anyone who would be wanting to draft Ty Simpson in a Dynasty league right now?

[Dave]

Shouldn't be surprising. Simpson is a long term play in Dynasty. It's as simple as that. When he gets his opportunity, hopefully he's ready to go and I'm happy for Stafford got paid. One way to feel better about your team taking a quarterback in round one is to get $55 million in your bank account. And now we see Stafford with one of the best receiving cores in the NFL. A good offensive line. There's potential for it to be solid even after this season. I think you can feel good about Stafford going into 2026.

[Host]

Right now, you can't feel great about Jacoby Brissette. He and the Cardinals are not close on contract negotiations, according to espn. This doesn't seem like a big deal, but Devon Achan missed at least one OTA session with an unknown injury, according to the Miami Herald. Anybody moved HN based on this report?

[Heath]

Nope.

[Jamie]

Not me. No. Still around 2 pick.

[Host]

This does seem like a big deal. Adam Schefter reporting that Tyreek Hill may not be ready until midway through the season recovering from a broken, broken leg. Right? Tyreek Hill?

[Jamie]

Yeah.

[Host]

What'd you say?

[Jamie]

Didn't he tear ligaments in his knee, too?

[Dave]

Yeah, I think it was just a like, massive injury.

[Host]

Yeah, it was a bad one. The Chief Everything broke have no plans to extend Rasheed Rice before the season starts, according to Schefter, and he's set to be a free agent. Not Schefter. I don't know his contract status, but Rice is set to be a free agent after this season. Dalton Kincaid said this is probably the best he has ever felt at this point in the year. He's really battled injuries, especially over the last two years. Last season, Kincaid didn't even crack 50 targets. He did get to 40, but he had 2.83 yards per out run, which is the best yards per out run for a tight end with 40 or more targets since George Kittle in 2020. I will warn you, Chigo Conqua once averaged 2.65 yards per outrun in 2022 on 46 targets. But Kincaid was really efficient last year, just couldn't really stay on the fields. They were limiting his workload. He feels good. Joe Ortiz, the GM of the Chargers, did not rule out signing Keenan Allen. We don't want that for fantasy purposes, but for Keenan Allen's purposes, that would be very nice for him. Bryce Young is looking really good at OTAs, according to Cameron Wolf of NFL Network. Brandon Iuk, according to Cam Inman of the Mercury News, is expected to be released or traded by the end of the summer. Pittsburgh offensive tackle Broderick Jones, he's got this neck injury. He says he has no timeline for a return and the Giants looks like they lost A starting defensive tackle, perhaps Roy Robertson? Harris. At least a rotational player probably for the season with a torn Achilles. Tough break there. Break or upside breaker? Upside. Break. Let's do upside. All right, let's go to round three. If you go to CBSSports.com best way to do is probably to Google it CBS Sports ADP and check our PPR adp and we'll show you the results here as we take you through round three. I'll just give you a group them by position running backs drafted in round three. Who has the most upside? Heath Cummings, Jeremiah Love, Breece hall or Kyron Williams?

[Heath]

I'll. I'll play my role and be the guy to say Kyren Williams and I think there's, there's a couple of paths to that happening. One is something happens to Blake Corum and all of a sudden Kyron Williams has 22 touches a game. Two is we're not going to do the Devonte Adams goal line wide receiver thing anymore and Kyron Williams gets back to 16 touchdowns in a season.

[Host]

So I, I should have laid out these parameters and I apologize. I always do that to you. But I think let's do non injury upside. If you want to mention injury upside, I think it's worth mentioning. Sure. And he's in a situation like is Kyron Williams situation any different than. Well, if there's a James Connor, I guess we would need a Connor and Alger injury. Yes.

[Heath]

Because the Rams offense is good and is going to score a bunch of touchdowns.

[Host]

Sure. Okay. All right. But I think let's do non injury upside. But if you think it's really worth mentioning injury upside like in a T. Higgins or something like that, then I think go ahead and bring it up. But if we take injuries away from the equation, would you still pick Kyron in this group of Love Hall, Kyron.

[Heath]

I'll still say Kyron because I think the touchdown upside and the off how good the offense is.

[Host]

Dave, who's got the most upside? Jeremiah Love, Breeze Hall, Kyren Williams.

[Dave]

I'll play my role and say Jeremiah Love. I think he's got the path to. I don't know if path is the right word. Let me, let me start over. I think he's got the most talent of these three running backs and I know that sounds silly. He's a rookie, he's never played in the NFL. I've watched all three of these guys. I just love what love brings to the field. Will. Will he have that pathway to have the type of workload that these other two Running backs who I think are going to end up sharing as long as everybody's healthy, will have. Well, he's going to share too, but I think he's going to be better than we think he is as a pass catcher. I think he'll be used that way a lot and I, I think he could probably lead this trio in total yardage. The touchdowns is what I worry about and I'm not sure if Arizona is on the same level as LA when it comes to touchdowns. They're not. But I do think that there is a chance for him. Let's call it 17 PPR points per game. Not saying he's going to do it. I'm saying he's got the upside to get there and I don't quite see that for Breeze hall and Kyron can get there. Kyron's got the safer floor, but I think that Jeremiah Love has just a little bit more upside because he's just the better talent in Arizona compared to Kyron sharing with Corum, maybe even to a 50, 50 split in LA.

[Host]

Jamie, who has the most upside, Jeremiah Love, Breeze hall or Kyron Williams?

[Jamie]

Yeah, I, I would have said Breeze hall anyway, so I'll, I'll make the case for him just because what we saw from him at times in his career and, and obviously the knock for Breeze hall is going to be. He's on a, you know, terrible team. He's always been on a terrible team. So, you know, what we saw at the start of his rookie season before the ACL tear, what we saw from him as a pass catcher coming back in his second year when nobody expected him to do anything from a productive stand. Production standpoint. He can, I think, win in all categories except for maybe the touchdown potential that Kyron Williams has. But he's sharing the least of these three by far. You know, even if he is going to share at all. So maybe Braylon Allen coming back from injury is going to have a role. Maybe Isaiah Davis is going to have a role. They clearly just paid Breece hall to be a featured back. We know for right now at least Jeremiah Love is sharing with, with potentially two other running backs and clearly the Rams have made it clear that they want to make it a, you know, the reports at least a 5050 split with Blake Corn. We saw what that was like at the end of last season. So I think the safest of the three is easily Kyron Williams. I think the other two have potentially more upside if things work their way. But obviously just from a who's sharing the least it's clearly Breece Hall. So hall and Love are on terrible offenses right now. I think hall can get back to being a factor in the passing game. I don't know if he will, but he can. And then clearly he has the potential to be the best runner of this trio because he's already shown it. So I'm, I'm hopeful for BS all now he's the ranked last of of these three for a variety of reasons. But I think just looking at it in terms of everything goes right and nobody is removed from the roster whether due to injury or personnel changes, Breece hall is going to get the most touches of this trio if everything goes in his favor.

[Host]

All right, I'll come back to that the touches debate after a break. So we'll take a break and then we'll finish up the running backs in this round. Only three Only Love, hall and Kyren Williams. And then we'll talk about a lot of wide receivers going in round three right now. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. You know, I'm feeling pretty good about my wardrobe lately and it's because I keep buying clothes from quince. Go to quince.com fftpod right now and see all of their amazing options. I've got stuff for all seasons, seasons and all occasions. I'm loving my 100 merino wool t shirts from Quince. I've got a cashmere sweater. I love the pants and I love how much everything costs. Quince has all the wardrobe staples for spring. Think 100% European linen shorts and shirts from $34 and clean 100 Pima cotton tees with a softness that has to be felt. And everything is priced 50 to 80% less than what you'd find at similar brands. Refresh your everyday with luxury you'll actually use. Head to Quince.com Fftpod for free shipping on your order and 365 day returns. That's Q-U-I-N-C-E.com Fftpod for free Shipping and 365 day returns. Now available in Canada too. Quince.com Fftpod hey, before we jump back into the show, let's take a quick break. But not just any break. This is a refreshing break with Snapple. We all know about Snapple's iconic real facts, so let's take a minute to go over some of my faves. Snapple Real fact 1983 the first player drafted to play pro football never played in the league. Snapple Real Fact 11:19 the Grand Canyon could hold about 900 trillion footballs. Snapple RealFact 2064The first college football game broadcast on TV4 was on September 30, 1939. Snapple Real Fact 1896 the tradition of playing football on Thanksgiving originated with college football in 1876. So grab a Snapple, take a second and enjoy the moment because let's be honest, this might be the most refreshing part of your day. Snapple make your break more interesting. All right now let's get back to the show.

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[Dave]

set for only $499. This Memorial Day get low prices guaranteed at the Home Depot while supplies Last priced invalid May 14 through May 27. US only exclusions apply. See homedepot.com Pricematch for details.

[Host]

Alright, so here's the funny thing about Breeze Hall. Breeze hall for the season. Well, actually let me, let me say Kyron Williams, like once Corum started getting involved more. Let's, let's go from week seven. I mean I could even go back to week four for Kyron Williams. But from week seven on and including the playoffs, Kyron Williams averaged 14.9 carries per game. Most weeks he was right around 13 or 14 carries per game. He had a couple of three weeks with over 20 but 14.8 carries per game for Kyle Williams. Then you go, oh, Breeze hall wasn't really sharing with anyone. Braylon Allen had the season ending injury early. Breece hall for the Entire season averaged 15.1 carries per game. And that was dominating carries for the team. But they just couldn't really run the ball because they stunk, you know. So I don't know Jamie, when you think of it that way with almost the worst of Kyron Williams was 15, roughly 15 carries per game. And then Breece hall is more or less the feature back all year was 15.1, 15.2 carries per game. You know, what do you think about that going into 2026?

[Jamie]

I mean look again, he's, he's ranked third of this group. I have, I have it. Love Kyron Breeze. But the, the question being upside, I'm not expecting Breeze Hall's 2025 to carry over to 2026. I mean that was I think as bad as we've seen for the jets during his Time there. So, yep, I'm counting on it being a quarterback upgrade. I'm counting on the offensive line being better. They really focused on adding pieces to this offense with two first round picks. So the hope would be. And again it's hope. But you know, again we're, we're talking about the, the most rosy outcome here is that we see Breece hall getting back involved. Not to what he was in his second season, you know, 70 catch guy, but I think he could be a 40 catch guy and then hopefully getting a couple more touchdown opportunities because the team is better and then the contract speaks to, okay, this is our guy, you know, because they could have easily said we're going to let you play it out the franchise tag and then we're done with you. Like this is a guy that they invested in with a team I think that's trying to compete in 20, 27 and beyond. I don't think they're going to be a competitive team this year. They'll be better, but they don't think they're, they're a Super bowl team or even a playoff team. So I just think you look at Breece hall, again, if everything works out for these guys as you, you know, gave us the caveat, no injuries, he doesn't have to worry about that. I think Kyron needs Blake Corum to be missing time to maximize his potential and we've seen his points per game go down each of the last three years. And I think in the case of Jeremiah Love, if this is a three headed monster, it could be awful on a bad team, you know. So while talent wise he's significantly better on paper than Tyler Algier and James Connor at this point in his career. Like if Jeremiah Love is losing passing down work to Connor or whatever work to Connor and losing touchdown opportunities Tyler Algier, then we're talking about a trap back. Now again, looking at upside, I think Jeremiah Love has immense upside, but I think if you say all three, this happens, this happens, this happens, nothing changes personnel wise, Bruce Hall's gonna be better than the other two.

[Host]

Okay, that's three different takes. I guess I'm not gonna weigh in much, but I think I'll break the tie here. Give me Kyron Williams with the most upside. Last year The Rams had 24 carries from the three yard line or closer. The Cardinals had 12 and the jets had five. So 24 for the Rams, 17 for the Cardinals and Jets combined. It's the touchdowns, but I see all your points. All right, let's go to Wide receivers.

[Dave]

How many of those did Kyron have?

[Host]

I don't know. At some point they split pretty evenly. I remember that.

[Dave]

Like I. I don't stay inside the five.

[Host]

Three one to three yard line. Three.

[Dave]

All right, Give me a minute.

[Jamie]

Yeah.

[Host]

All right. While you do that, Heath, let's take a look at the wide receivers. I'm going to split the wide receivers up the first three and the last five. A lot of wide receivers in this round. The first three are Nico Collins, Malik Neighbors and A.J.

[Heath]

brown.

[Host]

The last five are Olave Devonte Smith, McMillan Abuka, T. Higgins, Nico Neighbors, A.J. brown, who has the most upside?

[Heath]

So we're doing this non injury upside, but how are we dealing with a guy who is currently injured?

[Host]

I'm sorry, non injury upside, as in non injury to a teammate upside.

[Heath]

So, so I, I will say if Malik Neighbors is healthy, I think he has the most upside.

[Host]

But knowing what you know now, how do you look at their upside now? Because he's not healthy.

[Heath]

What? Right. But we're like five months from any football being or four months for any football being played.

[Host]

I think it's a really tough question.

[Dave]

Three and a half months.

[Host]

It's like four months is depressing.

[Jamie]

Heath, he's missing off season workouts though, so he's missing football would.

[Dave]

Hold on a second. Do we all agree that if Neighbors gets a couple of weeks worth of training camp practice that he's got the most upside of the group?

[Jamie]

I do not.

[Dave]

Okay.

[Jamie]

Because we have. We have enough track record of guys coming off of injuries that there's.

[Dave]

Yeah, totally. Just ask the question.

[Host]

It's Nico for me. I'll just get the conversation started. I said I wasn't going to give opinions. I'm sorry.

[Jamie]

No, you're fine. It's Nico for me too.

[Dave]

It's Nico.

[Heath]

So I think. Yeah, I think it's. It's Malik Neighbors if he can get healthy and Nico if he can be healthy for the first time ever.

[Dave]

But as things stand now, I think it's hard to really buy into Neighbors.

[Heath]

I think it's hard to buy in Nico playing a full season healthy.

[Dave]

Yeah, that's a good point.

[Host]

Why isn't it AJ Brown when none of us said AJ Brown?

[Dave]

I think he would be next up for me.

[Jamie]

Has there. Is there about trying to think this. Have there been. Do we consider AJ Brown still elite or near elite?

[Dave]

I guess I think the work, I think the volume will be.

[Host]

No, no.

[Jamie]

Just as a player.

[Dave]

What you would expect as a player. Nah, it feels like he's Going okay,

[Jamie]

I guess let me rephrase it because devonte Adams last year wasn't elite but superstar caliber receiver changes teams.

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

Has there been a guy that's been bad?

[Host]

Like what a great question.

[Dave]

Randy Moss when he went to Oakland. Great call.

[Host]

I would even say devonte Adams when he went to Oakland. I mean he. Or Las Vegas.

[Jamie]

Right.

[Host]

He was, I think he had a

[Dave]

good year, but it was pretty, he was pretty good.

[Jamie]

But I mean like terrible. Has anybody been terrible?

[Dave]

Yes.

[Jamie]

You think about like Stefan Diggs goes to, to Buffalo. He's, you know, and he's not an A.J. brown. He didn't have A.J. brown's resume at that point. Devonte Adams last year. I mean, you know, not great, but touchdowns were awesome.

[Host]

Jamie, I, I'm not ruling out AJ Brown is still an elite player. I mean, yeah, he was playing hurt all of last year on a bad offense.

[Jamie]

That and he had that, he had that stretch where he was over 19 points per game. It was like a six game stretch.

[Host]

And now he's going to Drake May. You know, I mean when you look at the passing numbers for the Texans. Sorry, I shouldn't just assume he's going into England, but assume if he does the passing numbers for the Giants who want to run the, run the air out of the ball, the Texans and the Patriots, I mean it could be a slaughter in ter in favor of the Patriots. I might be changing my answer here. Of course we have to treat it. He's still listed as on the Eagles, but that's just kind of how I'm seeing it. Guys like these are three tremendous receivers that should dominate targets for their teams. But the pie is much bigger. That's. That's a word expression you use a lot, Heath. Like the pie is bigger. I think you kind of use that in terms of targets. But if we just look at, in terms of yards and touchdowns, I think it's gonna be much bigger for the Patriots than it would be for the Giants or Texans. Yes.

[Heath]

Yeah, bigger. I, I don't think it's going to be. I don't think the gap will be as big as it was last year. Like I've said before, I don't think Drake May is going to repeat his efficiency from last year.

[Host]

I agree. But man, they, they have. Their schedule was so easy last year. It's a lot harder this year, especially the first four games. I, I forgot the note. I send you guys an article. Great article on CBSSports.com with all these schedule notes the Patriots have. I don't know, one of the hardest first four games ever or something like that. So I think they probably gonna have to throw more. All right, so you got different answers there. Nico Collins or maybe Malik Neighbors, if he's healthy. Let's go to the last five in this group. Olave, Devonte Smith, Tetteroa McMillan, Ameka, Abuka and T. Higgins. Olave, Devonte, Smith, McMillan, Abuka, T. Higgins, Dave. Who has the most upside?

[Dave]

First of all, these are the receivers ranked 12 through 16 in my PPR rankings, so I find that kind of amusing. I've got a book of the highest of the group. I We've seen him get a lot of targets already as a rookie on a team with Mike Evans, and then when Godwin came back, he was still getting a good target share. I hate that he got banged up and that Baker got banged up and it harpooned the year that Kabuka was building last year. But we saw enough from him to recognize that he is a great talent who should command a lot of targets. It's a close call for me as far as upside goes between him, McMillan, who could also command a lot of targets, and Devonte Smith, who I'd be worried a little bit about target volume, but not efficiency with Philadelphia because they don't throw a lot. But Abuka is the one I'm drafting first from this group of five. I also have your Rams carries inside the three. Update for those who still give a damn about Kyron versus Corum.

[Host]

All right, go ahead.

[Dave]

That's so five minutes ago.

[Host]

Go ahead real quick on that.

[Dave]

Kyron had 13 carries inside the three, scored seven touchdowns. Blake Corum had nine carries inside the three. He scored four touchdowns. Stafford had the other two carries, no touchdowns.

[Host]

So you said Abuka's ranked highest, but did you say he has the most upside?

[Dave]

Among highest because he has the most upside.

[Host]

Okay, Olave, Devonte, Smith, Tettero, McMillan, Abuka, T. Higgins, Jamie. Who has the most upside?

[Jamie]

It's a booker. You know, again, what we saw in the first four games last year is, you know, something that I'm hoping is, is replicated to a degree because Evans is gone. Because Godwin's a year older. Because. Because. Because, I mean, there's just a lot to like about the situation here for him. And so hopefully Zach Robinson, the new offensive coordinator, recognizes the, the talent that Abuka has and, you know, the, the fact that the, the Bucks, thinking ahead, drafted him with a first round pick last year with, I think the idea of him being the leader of this group or One of the leaders of this group this year. I kind of feel the same way about the. The trio of running backs that we talked about. To me, T. Higgins is the safest just because we've seen him. You, for the most part, he's got the most touchdown upside. He's shown that, you know, 21 touchdowns the last two years. So I think he's the safest of this group. But in terms of I. I think reaching another gear and. And hopefully doing it for a full season, I think it's a book.

[Host]

Heath.

[Heath]

Yeah, I think it's a Booker. I've got a. Like, he's not first, second, or third for me in the rankings of this group. I have a lot of concerns about his floor in the Tampa Bay offense in general, but if we get good Baker, then I think there's a very good chance that Abuka is just has a fantastic season. So I think he has the highest upside.

[Host]

Man. Devonte Smith, I always say, like Devonte Smith, when either A.J. brown or Dallas Goddard hasn't been there, he basically performs like wide receiver 12 overall. And that's almost all of that is no, no Dallas Goddard. There had not been a lot of no A.J. brown games. I think three.

[Jamie]

Three games. He's been 14.7 points or more in all three.

[Host]

And. And I think he's averaged eight or nine targets per game, so that's exciting. And then Higgins had a season two years ago, 2024. He averaged 18.7 PPR fantasy points per game because he had 10 touchdowns in 12 games. But there's the possibility of Joe Burrow throwing 45 touchdowns, so. All right, fun group. We all set a buka.

[Jamie]

Yep.

[Heath]

Yep.

[Host]

Cool. Let's move on to round. Oh, there's one tight end in this group. It's Brock Bowers. Are no quarterbacks in round three. Currently on our adp, Brock Bowers. Does Brock Bauer. Is there any wide receiver or running back I mentioned that has more upside than Brock Bowers? Love Hall, Kyron, Nico, neighbors, A.J. brown, Olave Devonte Smith, McMillan, Abuka Higgins. Anyone have more upside than bowers?

[Jamie]

The only two for me would be Nico and A.J. brown, but I don't have a rank that way.

[Host]

Okay.

[Heath]

I think it depends on whether you're talking about, like, upside in terms of the total number of fantasy points they could score or upside in terms of compared to replacement cost at their position. Because I think upside in terms of the total number of fantasy points scored, most of the wide receivers have more upside.

[Host]

Correct?

[Jamie]

Right.

[Heath]

Right.

[Host]

Makes sense. Okay, let's go to round four. Round four. We got five running backs. Cam Scatterboo, Travis, etn, Javante Williams, Quin, Sean Judkins and Bucky Irving. Just had a recent report about how the, not necessarily the what the split will be, but how the Bucks will split touches in the backfield. But Bucky Irving will be the, the main guy. But Scatter Boo, etn, Javante, Williams, Quinshot Judkins, Bucky Irving. Dave, you can start. Who has the most upside.

[Dave]

This is a tough one because you can make a case for almost every single one of these running backs. And I think if we're, if we're removing injury, I think I'd lean on Scatterboo. We saw the six game sample from last year. We know that he's usable as a pass catcher. We know that John Harbaugh has definitely been entrenched as a let's run the ball type of coach and commanding that from the offense. They're already talking like they want him to help shoulder that huge workload. I think he probably has the highest ceiling without considering injury at all.

[Host]

Jamie, who has the most upside? Cam Scatterable, Travis Etienne, Javante Williams, Quinshawn Judkins, Bucky Irving.

[Jamie]

Yeah, I think they've said it best. You can make a case for all these guys, especially if the Saints move on from, from Al Camaro. But I'm gonna go with the two sophomores. I have Scatterboo ranked ahead of Judkins, but you know, you want to see, hopefully these guys are, are back at 100. Judkins has looked great by all accounts, so that's fun to see. But we saw Scatterboo last year in that stretch of games that's, you know, that, that small sample size but those six games over 19 PPR points per game and I think that's, you know, something that he could hopefully get close to with a full workload in this offense with now you know John Harbaugh as the head coach because what Harbaugh has done, and we know we talked about this a lot when Derrick Henry was going from Tennessee to Baltimore, he wins. And so anytime you have a situation where the team is ahead, there's going to be a lot of opportunities to run the ball. I think he'll be involved in the passing game. So I give a slight edge to Scottaboo over Judkins, but Those are my two favorites.

[Host]

He's on pace for 60 catches. If you take out the two games Scatter Boo played 21.2% or fewer of the snaps, that's really a lot. Heath, who has the most upside in the group? Again, it's Scatterable, etn, Javante, Judkins, Bucky.

[Heath]

I would go with the two sophomores also, but I'll lean Judkins, of course, because I'm the Judkins guy. I think he's just a slightly better runner than Cam Scatterboo and I think the receiving production you saw from Scatterboo last year is probably going to shrink drastically with Malik Neighbors back and Isaiah Zaya likely on the team.

[Host]

Do you guys think Javante Williams. I'm sorry to keep repeating it. I know if you're watching, it's easy to follow along if you're listening. I don't know how easy it is to remember the five guys we're talking about at all times, but it's Scatterboot, Judkins, ETN Javante and Bucky Irving. Do you think Javante Williams leads this group in snaps or at least snap share?

[Jamie]

If Camara still in New Orleans? Yes,

[Dave]

it's either him or Quin.

[Heath]

Sean. I would. I'm gonna go with Quinon.

[Host]

Really?

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Host]

So Javante, they don't use him much on passing downs. I mean that I know he's not okay.

[Heath]

I don't even know what the snapshare was for Jonte last year.

[Host]

Yeah, take a look.

[Heath]

I'm looking at it now. It looks like for the season. Well, he had a couple of games later in the year where he didn't play as much. 68 for the year. The first 13 games of the season he was at 75.

[Host]

That's a big number, right? That.

[Heath]

Yes. The 75. I don't think Judkins can get to that. If it's the 68%, then I'd like his chances a little better.

[Host]

So. And they think about the argument we. Not the discussion we just had. Who has more upside? Kyron Williams vs. Breece hall and Jeremiah Love and perfectly valid argument that Heath made. And I seconded said Kyron, because of the offense. Isn't Javante Williams gonna have a lot more opportunities to score than Quinshawn Judkins?

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

Yes.

[Host]

So why doesn't he have the most upside?

[Jamie]

I mean, it's not an easy. I, I think you take Buck Irving off this group just because of what the, the off season storyline has been and the additions that they made or kept. In the case of Sean Tucker, like all four of the other guys, it wouldn't shock me if they're all in a similar range. If they all have great seasons, if they all take a step forward, maybe not ETN a step forward, but on the same plane at least. Like, they're all in great spots. You know, I, I think the, the health and offensive changes or, you know, just managerial changes in, in New York and Cleveland are going to be huge for the two guys there. And in the case of, of etn, if there's no Camaro, which, you know, even if he's there, it may not matter, but like, you know, the, the Cowboys offense is clearly going to be one of the best in football if everybody stays healthy and the Saints are one of the most or one of the best ascending offenses that we saw last year and I think got better this off season. So it's, this is probably of the, the, the, the different groupings that you've done, this is probably the toughest one for me just because I, I, you can make a case for all these guys. So I, I just kind of gravitate toward the, the two younger running backs, I think, that have a chance to maybe go to another level. I think what we saw from Javante last year is he's going to need to score a lot. He should score a lot, but he's going to need to score a lot. His role in the passing game scares me, probably more so than anybody else here. And I, I think we could see a situation where Dallas may not give him the same amount of touches, even though there's not a lot of change in who the second, third and fourth guy is on the depth chart. But I think they could give a little bit more work to Malik Davis this year just to take something off of Javante's plate.

[Host]

Okay, let's go to the wide receivers in round four here. And there are four of them. Garrett Wilson, Zay Flowers, Lad McConkey, and Luther Burden. Garrett Wilson, Zay Flowers', Lad McConkey, Luther Burden, Heath. Who has the most upside?

[Heath]

I'm gonna go with Zay Flowers. Just throw the ball a little bit more Baltimore and let Zay flowers have a seven or eight touchdown season. I think he's a top 10 wide receiver.

[Host]

Dave, I don't know if I believe

[Dave]

this, but I'll make the case for Garrett Wilson based on last year, based on him having this track record of getting a lot of volume and putting up good fantasy production. Now Geno Smith is the quarterback. This is arguably the best quarterback that he's had. Is he better than Aaron Rodgers?

[Host]

Maybe.

[Dave]

He's the second best quarterback that Garrett Wilson's ever had. And I know that they added some rookies to the passing game. I still think Garrett Wilson can get a good target share. I'm not necessarily saying that he should be the first one drafted of this group, but he's the one that might have the most upside based purely on volume.

[Host]

Jamie, who has the most upside? Garrett Wilson, Zay Flowers, Lad McConkey or Luther Burden?

[Jamie]

I agree with Heath that it's, it's Flowers. I guess I'll just make the case for Burden because everybody's going to, you know, want to see Burden take a huge step forward and hopefully he will. But you have 85 vacated targets from DJ Moore. We saw what Burden did at the end of the season in a couple of games when Odunze was hurt and he started to get opportunities. I mean, all of his advanced metrics are, are just off the charts. And Burden has a chance, I think, to be featured in Ben Johnson's offense and that's the hope. And so can he get to where Garrett Wilson was last season in those five healthy games when he was over 19 PPR points per game? That's probably a big ask. Can he be more involved in the offense? Like what we're seeing from Zay Flowers last year and the touchdowns hopefully will come for him as well. But I think if everybody hits their ceilings, I don't know if Burden gets to that level of where those other guys can get to and you know, it's, it's hard to discount what McConkey did his rookie season because he's pretty awesome. But I think Burton has clearly the highest, you know, the, the biggest room to grow and he may, you know, outgrow those other guys if just he gets those chances to be featured by Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson this season.

[Host]

This, I think is the toughest one that we've had so far. Wilson, Flowers, McConkey, Burden, who has the most upside? All right, we had two votes for Flowers, one for Garrett Wil and we'll leave it there. We're going to take a break. There are three non running back wide receivers being drafted in this round. We'll talk about their upside when we come back and then we'll get into round five after this. On fantasy football today, study and play come together on a Windows 11 PC. And for a limited time, college students get the best of both worlds. Get the unreal college deal, everything you need to study and play with select Windows 11 PCs. Eligible students get a year of Microsoft 365 Premium and a year of Xbox game Pass ultimate with a custom Color Xbox wireless controller. Learn [e-mail] studentoffer while supplies last ends June 30 terms@akamsCollegePC all right, who has the most upside in round four? Well, we've got one tight end and two quarterbacks. So if you think about them in terms of how they would outperform their position, the value of a replacement. As we just discussed, Drake May, Lamar Jackson and Colston Loveland. Dave, what's the upside play there?

[Dave]

Lamar is the upside play. Not that I love the idea of taking him in round four. I'm sure there will be some leagues where he's taken in round two, but he's the one that could be number one at his position. By a multi fantasy point per game margin, we're talking potentially 29 to 31 fantasy points per game. That would be well ahead of what Josh Allen's been averaging over the last few years. You would love to have that. I don't think Loveland can achieve something similar to that at tight end and I don't think Drake May will come close.

[Heath]

It's funny because like Drake May, we've talked about it just this historic second year, 8.9 yards per attempt, 72% completion percentage, had a touchdown rate over 6.3%, ran for 450 yards and four touchdowns. And he was still 80% of what Lamar Jackson's two best seasons have been in terms of fantasy points per game. Like it's, it's just not even when. When Lamar's at. Been at his best, there's almost nobody who touches him.

[Host]

Yeah, what a great pick. I think this is in round four.

[Heath]

I don't.

[Host]

Do you guys agree Lamar Jackson here or just.

[Heath]

I think Dave said he doesn't like it, but that's about where I've got him.

[Dave]

I've got him as a late round four pick. I'd have a hard time taking him in PPR out of like guys. I'm nervous about it. Other positions, some names, Trayvon Henderson, DJ Moore, Devonte. I don't think I'm gonna. I'm gonna take Lamar over those guys.

[Host]

Okay.

[Jamie]

Okay.

[Dave]

All right, how about this one for. Do you take neighbors or Lamar if you're drafting today?

[Heath]

Neighbors.

[Jamie]

I'm taking Neighbors. It's. It's the reason I would take Loveland over the two quarterbacks here too. I mean, look, obviously Lamar is going to outscore the field if he does what he's capable of doing. And, and clearly if that's the route you want to go, I get it. But I mean, the fact that Drake May has put himself in this conversation speaks to what this position gives you every year, in some cases a couple guys, is that you find these quarterbacks late. Now you could say the same thing about Loveland, that you found them late, but if you hit on the tight end and the tight end is good, it's such a difference maker that you, you almost want to hope that Loveland is what he's capable of being. I mean, 10 targets per game in his, you know, last five games, you know, like that's unheard of for what he could be this year. And now you're taking a player off the field in, in DJ Moore, you're, you're seeing this, you know, extremely talented first round pick finally started to develop at the end of the season. So, I mean, look, I get. Lamar's a great choice and, and so is Drake May for that matter. You know, if he does what he's capable of doing now with the Hope of, of A.J. brown, but Loveland could be the best tight end in fantasy next year.

[Dave]

There's one other thing. Sorry, there's one other thing. Lamar stunk last year.

[Host]

It was pretty obvious.

[Dave]

He obviously has the most upside, but he's also got some pretty bad downside. And if you're taking him that this is why I won't take him in round two or round three is because that downside could make him a terrible pick.

[Host]

But can I. I feel like there's

[Dave]

less downside with Loveland and so you're winning.

[Jamie]

I think there's, I think there's position. I think there's much more downside with Loveland. But I, I think in the case of Lamar, like you're, you're not drafting him here with the, maybe he's going to be bad. You're drafting here with, okay, I just got the best quarterback in fantasy and that's why you're taking him in the spot that you're taking him. I just think that the position's so saturated with talent. Like if you, if you're not taking him for his upside, you're taking him just because you think he's the best player there, which I don't know if that's why you want to draft him in that spot.

[Host]

So you said he stunk last year and his stinking for him. The first, first four game three games of the season, he scored over 33 fantasy points. Then he got hurt in week four, but he struggled in that game before getting hurt, came back and scored over 33 fantasy points. Against the Dolphins. And then every week it seemed like he had a new leg injury. He just kept playing hurt. He was obviously injured. But if you know he's a guy where. Look, if you think Azer stats are stupid, then I'm sorry, but he's the reason they exist. Lamar Jackson, if you remove injured games and you look at his last eight seasons, beginning with his, you know, his breakout as a sophomore, this is Lamar Jackson's points per game in, in six point per passing, touchdown leagues, removing injured games. He's played some partial games that have killed his, his, his stats. 32.5, 25.5, 24.2, 24.3, 23.6. 30 and last year was 21.8. So other than last year, he's almost always at least 24 points per game. And isn't that basically what Drake may average last year?

[Heath]

That is, yes, yes, 24.4.

[Host]

So I, I would feel more comfortable with Jackson if they didn't have a new coach. I don't really know what to expect but man, he's want to know.

[Jamie]

I think you should be optimistic about it because they clearly made this decision for Lamar Jackson.

[Host]

But if you look at his last three years with Todd Monkin, his yards per attempt have been 8 yards or better every year. So whether that had to do with Monkin or not, I mean he had the most efficient seasons of his career with Todd Monkin. I think it was a, it was a good marriage.

[Jamie]

Yeah, but you also have a guy who's a Sean Payton and Ben Johnson disciple. Like that's a pretty good place to be coming from.

[Host]

Sure. I mean, you know, it doesn't always

[Jamie]

work like of course, but you know, again they're, they're, they're hopeful I think that this is Lamar, this is your team. And now you have to go prove that we made the right decision to move on from a Hall of Fame coach to make it your team.

[Host]

Comment from the chat. Azer stats are the beer goggles of fantasy football. I wouldn't know.

[Dave]

Aaron.

[Host]

That's pretty funny.

[Dave]

That's a good one, Aaron.

[Host]

All right, round five. Jamie, you can start. Who has the most upside among the running backs in round five? There are three of them. DeAndre Swift, David Montgomery, Basil Tutin. And in case any of you miss this little disclaimer, we're talking non injury upside. So yeah, if, if, if DeAndre Swift's the only healthy back, sure, but we expect him to split. But DeAndre Swift, David Montgomery, Basil Tutin, who has the most upside?

[Jamie]

Jamie I mean, it's Tootin, you know, if he takes over Travis ETN's role and is that guy for Jacksonville, like he's going to outscore both of these guys maybe by significant margin. You know, I mean, ETN was awesome last year while sharing with, you know, Tutin and you know, to whatever extent with La Quint Allen. But I think just looking at the opportunity that Tutin is stepping into and Liam Cohen's offense, you know, we'll see what Chris Rodriguez does, but if it's just okay, now Tootin is the guy, then he's to me the. The best of this trio by far.

[Dave]

Dave, he's ranked third for me, but I agree that he's got the most.

[Jamie]

I agree with that also. He's ranked third for me too. Right.

[Host]

Yeah.

[Heath]

I just, I, I'm gonna say Swift just because I don't believe that Tuton has the ability to become a three down back in Jacksonville.

[Host]

Okay, I like that. I knew you weren't gonna say.

[Dave]

Do you believe Swift has. Is going to be a three down back in Chicago after what we saw

[Heath]

from Manangai last every other series, he will be.

[Dave]

Okay, fair point.

[Host]

This is kind of the. Still a rough split this is right here. I mean, for you, this is kind of the Chiron argument maybe too like the, the Bears should have the best offense, except we're not comparing them to the jets and Cardinals this time.

[Heath]

Well, and I think, like, I know I'm not. It's illegal to talk about this, but I think that one injury could turn Swift into a top 12 running back and I don't think one injury would do that for Tutin.

[Jamie]

Agreed. Totally. I, I mean, again, like if you're, if you're drafting these guys, I don't know how you could draft too and ahead of them, barring Liam Coleman come out and saying this is our guy, he's, he's it. You know, he's never going to do that. And they signed Rodriguez for a reason and I don't think they're done with their backfield, to be honest with you. We'll see if there's another player added. But like Swift, it's Almost like Kyron vs. Who are the other two?

[Host]

Breeze hall and Jeremiah Love.

[Jamie]

Yeah, I mean Kyron is by far the safest of those three and Swift is by far the safest of these three.

[Dave]

I don't.

[Host]

Is Kyron really the safest? Because he doesn't really catch the ball and he splits carries

[Jamie]

34 plus catches. Like that's not a Pretty good. Well, I mean, for what he does when he's scoring 10 touchdowns and getting you 1400 total yards every season, like you. You pencil that in for him because that's what he's giving you. To me, that's safe and yeah, it's, it's huge.

[Host]

Yeah. If you, yeah, if you're just gonna pencil the touchdowns in. DeAndre, can I give you a point on Montgomery? Yeah, sure.

[Dave]

We, we talked about how if Manangai gets hurt, Swift has a better pathway to be top 12. If Rodriguez gets hurt, Tutin could be certainly better. I think Montgomery is already on that path. I'm not sure what this coaching staff thinks of Woody Marks and Montgomery could. I think he's already like, clearly the 1A and could be on the field a lot for Houston. And whether or not we agree that he should be in that role or he'll be efficient in that role, that's a different question. But I think he's got it and I kind of want people to remember that. When you get to the round five range of your draft and you're looking for running backs, I think Montgomery's worthy of the pick there because even if he doesn't have the role that I'm laying out, even if he does share with Woody Marks a lot, I think he is going to be their short yardage guy and usually that hasn't mattered for Houston, but I think it will start to moving forward and I, I think he could end up getting a lot of work and being at least like raw numbers good enough to start in fantasy without a second thought.

[Heath]

I just am really. And it's probably just because like bias against Houston, but I'm really afraid it's just another old running back that Houston added.

[Dave]

Yep.

[Heath]

Right. Right after they fell off the cliff.

[Host]

But.

[Dave]

Well, how did Mixing.

[Host]

Yeah, mixing was 2024. He was a top score running back in 2024.

[Jamie]

I mean, they're not the same player and no, Mixing was. Was still coming off a very good season. Dave Montgomery is coming off the worst year of his career.

[Host]

Yeah, it's true.

[Dave]

Hey, he got relegated for a reason. Well, I mean, when, when you're with Jameer Gibbs.

[Host]

Yeah.

[Dave]

Well, I still like him as a low end, number two running.

[Jamie]

Oh, I think that's, that's certainly fair.

[Dave]

And, and I'll take him over Tootin right now. And I mean I said that already. I won't take him over Swift.

[Jamie]

I wouldn't take more Swift. I, I think when you're drafting David Montgomery, you should be drafting with the idea of your settling for David Montgomery with the hope that he's still going to score 10 plus touchdowns and maybe do a little bit more in the run game or I should say maybe, hopefully do a little bit more in the run game than he showed you in. In Detroit when Gibbs was there. Does he have the upside to be, you know, a 1200 plus yard rusher and score 12 touchdowns? That's probably a stretch. Can he be.

[Host]

Yes.

[Jamie]

A thousand yards and. And, you know, eight to 10 touchdowns. I think that's realistic.

[Host]

He averaged four points. Good for David Montgomery. Averaged 4.5 yards per carry last year. I did not even remember that until I just looked it up. But that, you know, it did seem like he was not as effective because he had one game where he averaged 12.6 yards per carry at Baltimore. I think that was a Monday night or some. Yeah, Monday. But he did average 4.5 yards per carry. Joe Mixon, I think, did that once in his career. Twice in his. Once in his career. Once. Joe Mixon's average more than 4.1 yards per carry one time in his career. That's horrible.

[Heath]

Yeah, but you can't compare David Montgomery running behind the Lions offensive line to Joe Mix and running behind the Bengals offensive line.

[Host]

I guess the question is, who was better the year before they went to Houston? Was it Joe Mixon who averaged 4 yards per carry for Cincinnati or David Montgomery who averaged four and a half?

[Jamie]

Mixing.

[Host]

Okay.

[Dave]

Mixing.

[Host]

He's never mixing. Never really been an efficient running back. He just gets every touch. Hopefully that's what happens with Montgomery.

[Dave]

That's. Yeah, that's what you're counting on.

[Host]

All right, wide receivers, in this round, I think we can split these up. Let's see. This is like Thomas having to do this on the fly. Let's see if he can do this. All right, so there are seven wide receivers in this round. Let's go, first four and last three. The first four are D.J. moore, Jalen Waddle, Terry McLaurin and Marvin Harrison Jr. The last three are Jameson Williams, Alec Pierce and Roma Dunes A. So again, heath. The first four are D.J. moore, Jalen Waddle, McLaurin and Marvin Harrison Jr. Who has the most upside?

[Heath]

I could make an argument for any of the four of them. I'm going to make the argument for the guy I think nobody else will. I'm going to say Terry McLaurin because he should be by far and away the number one target in the offense. I don't think that Washington's going to be good Enough to just run the ball all the time. So I think he could, he's probably not going to see 10 targets game but he could see nine. We've already seen him have a monstrous touchdown season with Jaden Daniels. I think Terry McLaurin could have one more great year.

[Host]

Okay, so it's more Waddle, McLaurin and Harrison. Jamie Heath's vote was for DJ Moore. I was for Terry McLaurin.

[Jamie]

Who's your vote for me make arguments for almost all these guys. I'll go with Pierce just in terms of upside because you're taking 100 targets away from this offense and they just paid him a billion dollars to be the guy. And so you know, if he can be the guy.

[Host]

Oh wait, we're doing, Sorry, we're just doing the first four.

[Jamie]

Oh.

[Host]

So it's more Waddle, McLaurin and Marvin.

[Jamie]

Who's the first one?

[Host]

DJ Moore.

[Jamie]

Oh, DJ more I'll probably agree with Heath and Sam Corn. I, I think again just, you know, Jane Daniel's number one guy, the number two guy is a rookie at best. If not, it's a, you know, retread Diami Brown, Van Jefferson, you know, Traylon Burks type guy. It's just, it's not pretty. So McLaurin to me is the one most upside that for some Dave Denver

[Dave]

didn't give up a first round pick for Jalen Waddle for nothing. I think they need somebody like him in their offense. He gives them, excuse me. I think he gives him speed, he gives them versatility and I think he's going to lead that team in targets and, and it sounds like I'm dying over here, but I promise I'm not. It's. I think he's the one that could be maybe second in this group in targets per game. DJ Moore might have a lead on him in that category but I, I love the upside of him in Denver getting a bunch of short and intermediate throws from Bonix along with a couple of deep throws that's going to happen every single week. And he could, I think he's got top 12 potential in full PPR and you don't have to draft him that way at all.

[Host]

Okay, Dave votes for Waddle and Heath and Jamie from McLaren. Dave, name this movie, quote, name the movie. You're not dying. You just can't think of anything good to do.

[Dave]

That's Ferris Bueller.

[Host]

Yeah. One of my favorite seeds. All right, next group. Jamie, you're make the case for Alec Pierce amongst Jameson Williams Pierce and Romo Dunesay who Has the most upside. Jameson Williams, Alec Pierce, Roma Dunes A this is the next three wide receivers going in round five.

[Jamie]

Pierce. Yeah.

[Host]

I cut you off during your first expo.

[Jamie]

No, I mean I said what I need to say. He's going to get a huge opportunity. He got a huge contract. It's, it's a lot of contingencies. Can he stay healthy? Can Daniel Jones be healthy? Can he, you know, become the, the alpha of this receiving course? So it's a lot of questions but I mean the, the path is as easy as it comes. You know, you look at the other two guys, I mean, oh, Dunesay might be better than Luther Byrd and Colson Wilson level and he might be the third option. Jameson Williams is getting as tight ender friendly coach as you could find and you know, has Laporta coming back healthy and, and Amara St. Brown's still there and you know, loses touchdowns unfortunately to Isaac Tesla and has the best running back in fantasy. So there's just a lot of of things working against him. So Pierce is you know, in terms of upside again don't have it ranked this way but Pierce in terms of upside is the to me the clear, clear answer here.

[Host]

Heath, Jameson Williams, Alec Pierce, Roma Dunes. He's got the most upside.

[Heath]

I will go with Roma dunes. As I said earlier, I have Loveland Burden and A Dunes a all at 126 targets. If one of these guys becomes the clear number one then any of them could have an immense amount of upside. And it was just four games but he was on pace for 85 catches, 1258 yards and 21 touchdowns at the start of last year and wasn't healthy in the second half. So maybe Roma Dunze is healthy and the number one wide receiver that's not, he's not the guy I draft the highest but I think he has the more up most upside if he turns into their number one Dave, it's a

[Dave]

dunesday and he is the one that I would draft the highest of these three. Jameson actually worries me because we've done a lot of talking about Drew Petzon going to Detroit and how he's going to favor the tight ends. I think it's going to happen his just his track record and the Lions track record of using multiple tight ends is going to put Laporta on the field more. It's going to design easier throws for golf to Laporta. There have been very rare occasions where both Laporta and Jameson Williams have had good fantasy games together. I think it's like five times in their careers. So I, I think that JMO will be the clear number three target getter in Detroit and it might even be number four. And I feel like he has talked about it and that's why I just heard that sigh. But I'm getting flashbacks to it and I'm nervous. I love the talent that Jameson Williams has, but I'm nervous about him being a steady fantasy contributor. I think he might be the one that's going to be the most boom or bust of these three.

[Host]

Just over the last three seasons, Jameson Williams target per out run rate with Laporta on the field has been 18.2, 18.3 and 14.7%. With Laporta off the field, it was 12.5% in 2023. So it was actually lower. But it was 23.9% in 2024 and 18.8% last year. Compared to 14 point last year. Yeah, 14, 14 with him on the field. So huge. That was just a huge split for Jameson Williams pre and post Sam Laporta or like with Laporta and without Laporta last year. Okay, so Alec Pierce for Jamie Odunze for Heath and Dave and the two non running backs or wide receivers in this group are Tyler Warren and Joe Burrow. Agree or disagree? Joe Burrow has more upside than any player in this round.

[Jamie]

Same with Lamar. It's the same argument. Yes.

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Host]

Relative to position, obviously, because he's going to outscore everyone, but.

[Jamie]

Yep.

[Host]

Heath, you don't seem as convinced.

[Heath]

Well, I'm just trying to think of like what do I think the best? Like LeBron, I think. Or LeBron might as well. Oh, Lamar could. Nobody can argue he could score 30 points per game. Yeah, I don't really think burrow could score 30 per game.

[Host]

Nah, 28.

[Heath]

That's how I was trying to decide.

[Dave]

Like about 27.

[Heath]

I think he gets 27.

[Dave]

That's what he had in 2024.

[Host]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

Yeah.

[Heath]

That's probably still the most of anything in this group.

[Host]

Well, certainly it's the most. But is it the most, you know, relative to position? I guess.

[Jamie]

I mean he could be a top three player as position. I don't think these other guys can.

[Host]

So we didn't say DJ Moore with the most upside is any. Like no one feels a, a Stefan Diggs 2.0 come in for DJ Moore, like going to Buffalo.

[Jamie]

He's the one I would draft first because I do think that there's upside, but I don't think there's as much upside as some of these other guys. Okay.

[Host]

We also have a poll question in the chat on YouTube and it is. Let's see, where's that poll? Who has the most patience? Adam, Jamie, Dave, or Heath? It's very close at the top. Except for me. I am getting 12% of the vote, and the three of you are all getting 28 to 31% of the vote. The current winner, the current leader is the guy I voted for. Who has the most patience? Dave? Richard.

[Dave]

I would have voted for Heath.

[Heath]

I. I think the poll results accurately reflect. I don't think between Dave and Jamie and I, there is a consistent everyday answer. Yeah, there's some. Some days I might be third. The third most patient. I'm not. Nobody on this group of us three is ever last. Some days I might be third. Some days I might be second. Some days I might be first.

[Dave]

I think I should be second to last, to be honest with you.

[Host]

It's.

[Dave]

It's between the other old heads on this show.

[Host]

Well, most patient, I would say. You know, my. Maybe my biggest. The thing I'd like to change most about myself is I wish I were a more patient person. I'm working on it. I've gotten better. But it's definitely a big weakness of mine. And I think we'd agree the only negative. So anyway, that's. That's it for today's show. And now my percentage has gone down to 11%. Even less patient than I was before my vote.

[Heath]

So I'm getting less patient with you finishing a show.

[Host]

You have to be patient with me finishing the show. I don't know. I'm at year 17 and I still can't finish the show. We have FFT Express to record soon. That will air. Oh, usually it airs Tuesday. I don't know, Thomas. When's it gonna air? Tuesday. Wednesday. Yeah, Wednesday. Wednesday. Okay. We do have another show tomorrow and Thursday. And we thank you all for watching, watching and listening. Just going to sit here and patiently exit. All right, we're out of here. See you. See you later, everybody. Talk to you tomorrow on fancy Football.

[Jamie]

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