Fantasy Football Today: Beyond the Box Score (12/15/2025)

Episode Overview

Theme:
Adam Aizer and Dan Schneier go "beyond the box score," digging into advanced stats and fantasy-relevant analysis of key NFL players, trends, and matchups for fantasy football playoffs. The discussion covers recent breakout performances, worrying trends, injury updates, snap counts, and practical advice for Week 16 decisions with an emphasis on actionable insights "from the simplest people you could possibly get."

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Opening Banter & Honest Advice

Adam jokes about "not getting anything out of the show" but quickly pivots to emphasize Adam's research and valuable upcoming player discussions.
Both hosts commiserate with listeners over rough start/sit advice from the prior week, reinforcing the unpredictable nature of fantasy (“It’s a crazy game we play ... we just never know. It’s the journey of prepping each week that I love.” – Listener Matthew, 03:10).

2. Sunday Night Football Review: Vikings vs. Cowboys

(Starting ~04:44)

J.J. McCarthy's Breakout

"His best game in the NFL ... two straight games with more than 26 fantasy points for J.J. McCarthy. That’s awesome." – Adam (05:06)
Dan sees McCarthy as a viable 2QB/Superflex playoff starter due to his rushing and chunk play ability, but warns against "getting too cute" in 1QB leagues.

Justin Jefferson & T.J. Hockenson Outlook

Jefferson: 8 targets (most vs DAL without 14+ PPR), but just 2 catches, 22 yards, and a TD called back ("He was open in the end zone and ball went through his hands ... fastball when it needed to be change-up" – Adam, 08:30).
Hockenson: "I’ll expect maybe 8 to 10 fantasy points, but it could be worse" – Adam (07:26); Dan notes red-zone runner’s ball improvement but limited pass attempts as a concern.

Vikings RBs (Ty Chandler & Kene Nwangwu)

Near-even carry split with goal-line work for Mason, receiving for Jones ("You probably wouldn’t want to start Jones or Mason, except the Giants are almost an historically bad run defense." – Adam, 09:09).

Dallas Playoff Outlook

Dak has a difficult upcoming matchup against the Chargers ("They have the fewest points allowed to QB and WR ... but you know how it’s going to be – they’re just going to throw and throw and throw." – Adam, 10:24).
Ferguson & Lamb: Lamb is an obvious start; Ferguson much iffier vs LAC’s stingy TE defense next week.

3. Deeper Concerns: Steelers & Pickens

(13:09)

Adam critiques George Pickens for "jogging routes" and declining engagement, corroborated by Chris Collinsworth’s on-air report:
“Dak Prescott told him he could see in Pickens' eyes last week that he wasn’t all there ... and just kept targeting CeeDee Lamb” – Dan relaying Collinsworth, (13:26).
Both agree Pickens’ effort and poor pass protection (3rd string LT) make him a risk in fantasy playoffs: “It’s hard to feel confident about where he’s at as we end this season.” – Dan (14:24).

4. Injury & News Rundown

(20:47 - 23:40)

RBs: Jalen Warren (illness, questionable), Javonte Williams (chest, returned), Woody Marks (ankle, returned), RJ Harvey (ribs), Zonovan Knight (ankle, out next week).
WRs: Christian Watson (chest, should be back soon), Taekwon Thornton (concussion), Ricky Pearsall (knee), Van Jefferson & Tyler Lockett (hurt), Devon Vaille (ankle, missed 4th quarter).
OL/DEF: Key injuries to DAL, KC, GB lines and Titans/Jets defensive backs — all impacting matchups for next week.

5. Snap Counts & Trends

(25:06 - 27:14)

Breece Hall (down to 55% snaps, out-snapped by Isaiah Davis in Q3/4).
Big games & increased routes for Tyron Tracy Jr., Romeo Doubs.
Troy Franklin’s "big game" was not due to volume (only 50% snaps).
Brian Thomas Jr.: 4/66/1, dropped potential 2nd TD and deep ball.

6. Five Big Things: Connect the Dots for Playoff Decisions

1. Trevor Lawrence's Ceiling/Trap Game

(28:14 - 33:08)

Massive 54.1 fantasy point week, 4 straight good games.
Improved OL protection recently, but "the schedule has been as good as it gets" for defensive matchups (Adam, 30:53).
Denver (up next) has an elite pass rush; only QBs who’ve succeeded were mobile/elite or got "lucky"; road game makes it tougher.
Dan: "I’d still start him," points to improvements in the pass game, mobility, and OC Liam Cohen’s impact.
Adam: “I am leaning sit Trevor Lawrence.” (31:52); both agree he’s a lock week 17 onward.

2. Kyle Pitts: Finally a Must-Start?

(33:08 - 35:58)

3 straight games with 8+ targets but hasn’t played a full game with Kirk Cousins & Drake London.
“You start Pitts if London’s out against Arizona ... He might be tight end 2. But with London back, I have no idea,” – Adam (33:40), but Dan is bullish regardless due to Cousins’ fit and the matchup: “He’s one of the best plays on the whole slate” (34:19).

3. Tyrone Tracy Jr. – Real Workhorse or Fool’s Gold?

(36:51 - 41:46)

15/70/1 plus 3/27/1 receiving, season-high 76.5% snaps.
Dan: "He’s probably the best playmaker left ... [Kafka] believes he gives them the best chance to win" (37:29).
Adam: Sees some floor with receiving work, but ceiling is capped by offense’s red zone inconsistency. “If he gets three catches, you’re probably getting double-digit PPR ... but TD upside is questionable.” (39:54)

4. Joe Burrow Stumbles: Worry or Blip?

(43:24 - 48:33)

5.5 pts vs. Baltimore in bad conditions. Next: at Miami (better weather, not a top pass D).
If Tee Higgins is out: “We have a decision to make” (44:07).
Without Higgins, Burrow’s fantasy floor is shaky (three games last year <15 points), but Dan: “I don’t think I’ll ever bench Joe Burrow personally ... I think he’ll look good” (44:07, 44:49).
Adam details how missed red-zone and deep shots (plus a drop by Jamar Chase) led to the poor day, not just defensive pressure.
Detailed Bengals beat writer (!) breakdown: Ravens gameplan disrupted CIN’s usual blocking and pass rhythm (47:28).
Both predict a bounce-back, especially if Higgins plays.

5. Rashee Rice – Trust With Gardner Minshew?

(48:51 - 53:07)

Vs. DEN in Week 17 — “He will be on my bench, and I am debating benching him vs. TEN as well ... but probably have to start him” (Dan, 49:11).
Worry that Minshew’s quick-read, less vertical style could depress Rice’s manufactured volume ("Most of Rice’s production has been manufactured ... not a man-beater, struggles after the catch" – Dan, 51:39).
Adam: “Against Tennessee, I’m confident enough ... their defense is just atrocious” (52:44), but both agree Rice's ceiling is capped the next two weeks.

7. Memorable Quotes & Moments

On Fantasy Making You Question Everything:
“…while I love all the prep and data, we just never know. It’s the journey of prepping for each week that I love.” – Listener Matthew (03:10)
On Giving Bad Start/Sit Advice:
“Just felt like I gave bad advice yesterday … I’m kind of reeling. I was very happy he forgave me.” – Adam (03:10)
On Kyle Pitts, Finally:
“He can’t be stopped. It looks like Florida version of Kyle Pitts ... one of the best plays on the whole slate.” – Dan (34:19)
Chris Collinsworth on Pickens:
“Dak Prescott told him in meetings this week that last week he could see it in Pickens’ eyes that he wasn’t all there ... That is not—like, I’ve never heard that said about an athlete before.” – Dan (13:26)
Advanced Outline from Bengals Beat Writer:
“...the new spacing from the Ravens interchangeable front seven was apparently an effort to slow the Bengals’ effective double teams in the run game and force hesitation in pass protection...” – quoted by Adam (47:28)
On Rice Ceiling:
“He was a league winner in his early return. He’s definitely no longer a league winner … probably a supportive piece.” – Dan (52:57)

8. Final Thoughts & Listener Questions

Playoff fantasy format rant; consequences of 16-team with 8 playoff spots and no bye for 1 seed (expected CBT squabbling, 53:04–56:38).
Adam’s College Football Playoff preview and inside Miami analysis, showing passion beyond fantasy.

Useful Timestamps

01:19: Episode starts in earnest, player review preview
04:44: Vikings–Cowboys/JJ McCarthy deep dive
09:09: Vikings RBs, NYG run D
13:09: George Pickens engagement/effort controversy
20:47: Injury reports
25:06: Snap counts, RB/WR usage updates
28:14: Five Big Things segment kickoff (Trevor Lawrence)
33:08: Kyle Pitts forecast
36:54: Tyrone Tracy analysis
43:24: Joe Burrow worries & tape notes
48:51: Rashee Rice dilemma
53:04: Playoff format/lineup lock/commissioner debate

Takeaways for Fantasy Managers

Start: J.J. McCarthy (2QB/Superflex), Kyle Pitts (especially if London is out), Rashee Rice (Week 16 only), Trevor Lawrence (unless deep at QB), Tyrone Tracy Jr. (flex, PPR RB2/3).
Monitor: T.J. Hockenson’s floor, Burrow with/without Tee Higgins, Pickens’ effort; Vikings RBs as desperation starts vs. NYG.
Fade: Rashee Rice vs. Denver (Week 17), George Pickens in tough/meaningless matchups.

The hosts blend honest self-critique, advanced stats, observations from tape, and a dose of humor for challenging playoff roster management — making it an essential listen for fantasy managers looking to optimize key decisions when it matters most.

Fantasy Football Today: Beyond the Box Score (12/15/2025)

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Opening Banter & Honest Advice

Adam jokes about "not getting anything out of the show" but quickly pivots to emphasize Adam's research and valuable upcoming player discussions.
Both hosts commiserate with listeners over rough start/sit advice from the prior week, reinforcing the unpredictable nature of fantasy (“It’s a crazy game we play ... we just never know. It’s the journey of prepping each week that I love.” – Listener Matthew, 03:10).

2. Sunday Night Football Review: Vikings vs. Cowboys

(Starting ~04:44)

J.J. McCarthy's Breakout

"His best game in the NFL ... two straight games with more than 26 fantasy points for J.J. McCarthy. That’s awesome." – Adam (05:06)
Dan sees McCarthy as a viable 2QB/Superflex playoff starter due to his rushing and chunk play ability, but warns against "getting too cute" in 1QB leagues.

Justin Jefferson & T.J. Hockenson Outlook

Jefferson: 8 targets (most vs DAL without 14+ PPR), but just 2 catches, 22 yards, and a TD called back ("He was open in the end zone and ball went through his hands ... fastball when it needed to be change-up" – Adam, 08:30).
Hockenson: "I’ll expect maybe 8 to 10 fantasy points, but it could be worse" – Adam (07:26); Dan notes red-zone runner’s ball improvement but limited pass attempts as a concern.

Vikings RBs (Ty Chandler & Kene Nwangwu)

Near-even carry split with goal-line work for Mason, receiving for Jones ("You probably wouldn’t want to start Jones or Mason, except the Giants are almost an historically bad run defense." – Adam, 09:09).

Dallas Playoff Outlook

Dak has a difficult upcoming matchup against the Chargers ("They have the fewest points allowed to QB and WR ... but you know how it’s going to be – they’re just going to throw and throw and throw." – Adam, 10:24).
Ferguson & Lamb: Lamb is an obvious start; Ferguson much iffier vs LAC’s stingy TE defense next week.

3. Deeper Concerns: Steelers & Pickens

(13:09)

Adam critiques George Pickens for "jogging routes" and declining engagement, corroborated by Chris Collinsworth’s on-air report:
“Dak Prescott told him he could see in Pickens' eyes last week that he wasn’t all there ... and just kept targeting CeeDee Lamb” – Dan relaying Collinsworth, (13:26).
Both agree Pickens’ effort and poor pass protection (3rd string LT) make him a risk in fantasy playoffs: “It’s hard to feel confident about where he’s at as we end this season.” – Dan (14:24).

4. Injury & News Rundown

(20:47 - 23:40)

RBs: Jalen Warren (illness, questionable), Javonte Williams (chest, returned), Woody Marks (ankle, returned), RJ Harvey (ribs), Zonovan Knight (ankle, out next week).
WRs: Christian Watson (chest, should be back soon), Taekwon Thornton (concussion), Ricky Pearsall (knee), Van Jefferson & Tyler Lockett (hurt), Devon Vaille (ankle, missed 4th quarter).
OL/DEF: Key injuries to DAL, KC, GB lines and Titans/Jets defensive backs — all impacting matchups for next week.

5. Snap Counts & Trends

(25:06 - 27:14)

Breece Hall (down to 55% snaps, out-snapped by Isaiah Davis in Q3/4).
Big games & increased routes for Tyron Tracy Jr., Romeo Doubs.
Troy Franklin’s "big game" was not due to volume (only 50% snaps).
Brian Thomas Jr.: 4/66/1, dropped potential 2nd TD and deep ball.

6. Five Big Things: Connect the Dots for Playoff Decisions

1. Trevor Lawrence's Ceiling/Trap Game

(28:14 - 33:08)

Massive 54.1 fantasy point week, 4 straight good games.
Improved OL protection recently, but "the schedule has been as good as it gets" for defensive matchups (Adam, 30:53).
Denver (up next) has an elite pass rush; only QBs who’ve succeeded were mobile/elite or got "lucky"; road game makes it tougher.
Dan: "I’d still start him," points to improvements in the pass game, mobility, and OC Liam Cohen’s impact.
Adam: “I am leaning sit Trevor Lawrence.” (31:52); both agree he’s a lock week 17 onward.

2. Kyle Pitts: Finally a Must-Start?

(33:08 - 35:58)

3 straight games with 8+ targets but hasn’t played a full game with Kirk Cousins & Drake London.
“You start Pitts if London’s out against Arizona ... He might be tight end 2. But with London back, I have no idea,” – Adam (33:40), but Dan is bullish regardless due to Cousins’ fit and the matchup: “He’s one of the best plays on the whole slate” (34:19).

3. Tyrone Tracy Jr. – Real Workhorse or Fool’s Gold?

(36:51 - 41:46)

15/70/1 plus 3/27/1 receiving, season-high 76.5% snaps.
Dan: "He’s probably the best playmaker left ... [Kafka] believes he gives them the best chance to win" (37:29).
Adam: Sees some floor with receiving work, but ceiling is capped by offense’s red zone inconsistency. “If he gets three catches, you’re probably getting double-digit PPR ... but TD upside is questionable.” (39:54)

4. Joe Burrow Stumbles: Worry or Blip?

(43:24 - 48:33)

5.5 pts vs. Baltimore in bad conditions. Next: at Miami (better weather, not a top pass D).
If Tee Higgins is out: “We have a decision to make” (44:07).
Without Higgins, Burrow’s fantasy floor is shaky (three games last year <15 points), but Dan: “I don’t think I’ll ever bench Joe Burrow personally ... I think he’ll look good” (44:07, 44:49).
Adam details how missed red-zone and deep shots (plus a drop by Jamar Chase) led to the poor day, not just defensive pressure.
Detailed Bengals beat writer (!) breakdown: Ravens gameplan disrupted CIN’s usual blocking and pass rhythm (47:28).
Both predict a bounce-back, especially if Higgins plays.

5. Rashee Rice – Trust With Gardner Minshew?

(48:51 - 53:07)

Vs. DEN in Week 17 — “He will be on my bench, and I am debating benching him vs. TEN as well ... but probably have to start him” (Dan, 49:11).
Worry that Minshew’s quick-read, less vertical style could depress Rice’s manufactured volume ("Most of Rice’s production has been manufactured ... not a man-beater, struggles after the catch" – Dan, 51:39).
Adam: “Against Tennessee, I’m confident enough ... their defense is just atrocious” (52:44), but both agree Rice's ceiling is capped the next two weeks.

7. Memorable Quotes & Moments

On Fantasy Making You Question Everything:
“…while I love all the prep and data, we just never know. It’s the journey of prepping for each week that I love.” – Listener Matthew (03:10)
On Giving Bad Start/Sit Advice:
“Just felt like I gave bad advice yesterday … I’m kind of reeling. I was very happy he forgave me.” – Adam (03:10)
On Kyle Pitts, Finally:
“He can’t be stopped. It looks like Florida version of Kyle Pitts ... one of the best plays on the whole slate.” – Dan (34:19)
Chris Collinsworth on Pickens:
“Dak Prescott told him in meetings this week that last week he could see it in Pickens’ eyes that he wasn’t all there ... That is not—like, I’ve never heard that said about an athlete before.” – Dan (13:26)
Advanced Outline from Bengals Beat Writer:
“...the new spacing from the Ravens interchangeable front seven was apparently an effort to slow the Bengals’ effective double teams in the run game and force hesitation in pass protection...” – quoted by Adam (47:28)
On Rice Ceiling:
“He was a league winner in his early return. He’s definitely no longer a league winner … probably a supportive piece.” – Dan (52:57)

8. Final Thoughts & Listener Questions

Playoff fantasy format rant; consequences of 16-team with 8 playoff spots and no bye for 1 seed (expected CBT squabbling, 53:04–56:38).
Adam’s College Football Playoff preview and inside Miami analysis, showing passion beyond fantasy.

Useful Timestamps

01:19: Episode starts in earnest, player review preview
04:44: Vikings–Cowboys/JJ McCarthy deep dive
09:09: Vikings RBs, NYG run D
13:09: George Pickens engagement/effort controversy
20:47: Injury reports
25:06: Snap counts, RB/WR usage updates
28:14: Five Big Things segment kickoff (Trevor Lawrence)
33:08: Kyle Pitts forecast
36:54: Tyrone Tracy analysis
43:24: Joe Burrow worries & tape notes
48:51: Rashee Rice dilemma
53:04: Playoff format/lineup lock/commissioner debate

Takeaways for Fantasy Managers

Start: J.J. McCarthy (2QB/Superflex), Kyle Pitts (especially if London is out), Rashee Rice (Week 16 only), Trevor Lawrence (unless deep at QB), Tyrone Tracy Jr. (flex, PPR RB2/3).
Monitor: T.J. Hockenson’s floor, Burrow with/without Tee Higgins, Pickens’ effort; Vikings RBs as desperation starts vs. NYG.
Fade: Rashee Rice vs. Denver (Week 17), George Pickens in tough/meaningless matchups.

The hosts blend honest self-critique, advanced stats, observations from tape, and a dose of humor for challenging playoff roster management — making it an essential listen for fantasy managers looking to optimize key decisions when it matters most.

Beyond the Box Score: Joe Burrow, Kyle Pitts, Trevor Lawrence, Tyrone Tracy Jr. and More (12/15 Fantasy Football Podcast)

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Summary

Fantasy Football Today: Beyond the Box Score (12/15/2025)

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Opening Banter & Honest Advice

2. Sunday Night Football Review: Vikings vs. Cowboys

J.J. McCarthy's Breakout

Justin Jefferson & T.J. Hockenson Outlook

Vikings RBs (Ty Chandler & Kene Nwangwu)

Dallas Playoff Outlook

3. Deeper Concerns: Steelers & Pickens

4. Injury & News Rundown

5. Snap Counts & Trends

6. Five Big Things: Connect the Dots for Playoff Decisions

1. Trevor Lawrence's Ceiling/Trap Game

2. Kyle Pitts: Finally a Must-Start?

3. Tyrone Tracy Jr. – Real Workhorse or Fool’s Gold?

4. Joe Burrow Stumbles: Worry or Blip?

5. Rashee Rice – Trust With Gardner Minshew?

7. Memorable Quotes & Moments

8. Final Thoughts & Listener Questions

Useful Timestamps

Takeaways for Fantasy Managers

The hosts blend honest self-critique, advanced stats, observations from tape, and a dose of humor for challenging playoff roster management — making it an essential listen for fantasy managers looking to optimize key decisions when it matters most.

Summary

Fantasy Football Today: Beyond the Box Score (12/15/2025)

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Opening Banter & Honest Advice

2. Sunday Night Football Review: Vikings vs. Cowboys

J.J. McCarthy's Breakout

Justin Jefferson & T.J. Hockenson Outlook

Vikings RBs (Ty Chandler & Kene Nwangwu)

Dallas Playoff Outlook

3. Deeper Concerns: Steelers & Pickens

4. Injury & News Rundown

5. Snap Counts & Trends

6. Five Big Things: Connect the Dots for Playoff Decisions

1. Trevor Lawrence's Ceiling/Trap Game

2. Kyle Pitts: Finally a Must-Start?

3. Tyrone Tracy Jr. – Real Workhorse or Fool’s Gold?

4. Joe Burrow Stumbles: Worry or Blip?

5. Rashee Rice – Trust With Gardner Minshew?

7. Memorable Quotes & Moments

8. Final Thoughts & Listener Questions

Useful Timestamps

Takeaways for Fantasy Managers

The hosts blend honest self-critique, advanced stats, observations from tape, and a dose of humor for challenging playoff roster management — making it an essential listen for fantasy managers looking to optimize key decisions when it matters most.