Buying the Breakouts? Analyzing Six Big Breakouts From 2025 (04/08 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today – "Buying the Breakouts? Analyzing Six Big Breakouts From 2025"

Date: April 8, 2026
Host: Adam Aizer
Analysts: Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, Heath Cummings

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the biggest fantasy football breakouts from the 2025 NFL season. The crew (Adam, Dave, Jamey, Heath) debates whether these breakout performances are legitimate and sustainable heading into 2026. Key players discussed include Garrett Wilson, George Pickens, Chris Olave, Javonte Williams, and quarterbacks Drake May and Trevor Lawrence. The team also contextualizes news and notes impacting 2026 fantasy rankings and expresses their confidence in each breakout through a signature "confidence-o-meter" segment.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Breakout Definitions & Setup

• [01:51] Adam: Asks "Are we buying the breakouts from 2025?", noting that a true breakout wins you a league, not just weeks.
• [02:41] Heath: "Garrett Wilson didn’t win anybody a league last year."
• The crew will dissect whether impressive 2025 stats translate to repeat value, or if player situations raise red flags.

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2. Garrett Wilson – Did He Really Break Out?

[13:58] Segment Start

Key Stats:

• Finished top 12 in 4 of first 6 games; hurt thereafter
• Never on pace for more than 1,100–1,200 yards in a season; only 7 TDs in a "healthy" pace

Key Arguments:

• Jamey [14:52]: "He has that type of pedigree, he has that type of sample size in a small capacity. Now he’s just got to do it over the course of a full season."
• Dave [17:24]: Points to elite target volume and lack of competition in New York, but "volume will be the number one reason why Garrett Wilson will be a good fantasy wide receiver."
• Heath [18:15]: "I would be 0% surprised if he outscores Malik Neighbors this year ... I’d also be not that surprised if the Jets are just an absolute disaster ... and we’re all kind of disappointed."
• Adam & Heath [segments 20:03 – 22:18]: Debate Wilson's disappointing advanced metrics (catch rate, yards per target, explosive play rate) and the impact of consistently poor QB play.

Memorable Quote:
Heath [21:28]: “I was just explaining catch rate to my 16-year-old yesterday... He has played with a lot of quarterbacks who have targeted him and not put the ball in a place where he could catch it.”

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3. George Pickens – Real Deal WR1?

[22:41] Segment Start

Key Stats:

• WR6 per game in 2025 (9 TDs, 1,400+ yards)
• Major leap after being traded to Dallas and playing with Dak Prescott

Key Arguments:

• Dave [23:08]: "I think he's going to be a top 12-ish type of wide receiver moving forward."
• Jamie [25:05]: “This was what we’ve been waiting to see … Now can he stay healthy and do it for … 13 plus games? If he does, you’re going to be thrilled.”
• Heath [27:21]: Cites strong target share even with CeeDee Lamb on the field: “I think both of these guys can be top 12 wide receivers.”
• Adam & Jamie [28:26 – 29:04]: Praise Pickens for expanded route tree, lower aDOT, and more versatile usage in Dallas.

Memorable Quote:
Jamie [25:05]: “I think it was a combination of showing his quarterback, his coach, and maybe even himself what he can do with a great quarterback when there’s not another alpha receiver on the field.”

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4. Chris Olave – Consistent Producer or TD Mirage?

[32:48] Segment Start

Key Stats:

• WR7 per game in 2025 (9 TDs)
• Production spike with Tyler Shuck at QB, especially after Rashid Shahid trade

Key Arguments:

• Jamie [33:22]: “The biggest thing was he stayed healthy… Kellen Moore’s offense is very suited for high end receiver production. It’s certainly suited, I think, for Olave.”
• Heath [34:51]: Compares Olave’s breakout to Terry McLaurin’s from a year ago: “Not that much different, except Olave scored nine touchdowns.”
• Adam [35:15]: Wary Olave could regress if TDs normalize and QB Tyler Shuck isn't as effective.
• Jamie [37:34]: More confident in Olave than Wilson because of a better (but still unproven) quarterback and offensive scheme.

Memorable Quote:
Jamie [33:22]: “This receiving corps is his and, you know, it’s an opportunity for him to go out and have another season where he’s gonna be at the top of the leaderboard in targets if he stays healthy.”

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5. Comparing Breakout WRs: Efficiency, Role, and Quarterback Impact

[28:49] Data Dive – Olave, Wilson, Pickens

• Adam presents efficiency stats among 130 WRs with 100+ targets in last 4 years.
• Pickens excels in yards per catch and target, even before Dak Prescott
• Olave and Wilson stand out in target volume but not efficiency

Heath [31:17]: “I strongly prefer Pickens. But the biggest reason why is that Pickens is playing with Dak Prescott.”

• Group agrees QB play is a decisive factor for repeating breakouts

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6. Javonte Williams – Breakout RB or Touchdown-Dependent?

[45:37] Segment Start

Key Stats:

• Top-12 RB on a per-game basis in 2025, after years of stagnation
• Saw biggest workload of his career; Dallas offense provided scoring opportunities

Key Arguments:

• Heath [46:03]: “He got used as a workhorse running back.”
• Dave [48:33]: "We know that Javonte Williams isn’t a phenomenal talent. It’s all about Dallas having nobody else."
• Jamie/Heath [47:25]: Still only a round 4 RB for fantasy – running back value is flat, and his profile is not irreplaceable
• Adam [49:54]: Historically bad receiving efficiency in 2025; positive regression could boost his PPR value

Memorable Quote:
Heath [46:07]: “He had two more carries per game than he’s ever had in his career… He was on a good offense.”

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7. Quarterback Breakouts – Drake May (QB3) & Trevor Lawrence (QB6)

[50:57] Segment Start

Key Stats:

• Drake May – QB3 per game (72% completion, 9.1 AY/A, rushing production)
• Trevor Lawrence – QB6 per game, finally cracks 20 PPG thanks to a career-high in TD rate and rushing scores

Key Arguments:

• Jamey [51:22]: Slight edge to May being able to repeat – “May did in year two what we’ve been waiting for Trevor Lawrence to do for his career and for a full season.”
• Heath [53:21]: Cautions on Lawrence’s outlier 9 rushing TDs: “I don’t anticipate that he’s going to finish second amongst all quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns again.”
• Dave [54:12]: Comfortable with both QBs but sees more stability (rushing/efficiency) in May’s profile.
• Adam [55:32]: Notes May’s completion percentage + air yards as historically elite (5.4 completed air yards per attempt – second-highest since 2018 per True Media)
• Concerns about sustainability if environments change or stats regress

Memorable Quote:
Adam [55:32]: "Drake May had a 72 or 73% completion percentage. 72% with 9.1 air yards per attempt… That's insane. So that'll regress a little, I think."

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8. The Confidence "O-Meter"

[62:20] Segment Start

• The crew rates their 0-10 confidence that each player repeats at their current ADP:
  • George Pickens (WR10): Jamie – 10, Heath – 7
  • Chris Olave (WR11): Jamie – 10, Heath – 7
  • Garrett Wilson (WR17): Jamie – 10, Heath – 5
  • Javonte Williams (RB17): Jamie – 10, Heath – 3
  • Drake May (QB3): Jamie – 10, Heath – 6
  • Trevor Lawrence (QB10): Jamie – 10, Heath – 4

Heath’s process:
“If I had the guy ranked lower, then you said I said less than five and if I had the guy ranked higher, I said more than five and if I had the guy ranked the same, I said five.” [63:55]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Heath [22:18]: "Did you hear that list of names?" (On Wilson's QB woes)
• Jamie [25:05]: "Being in a contract year, you know, so I'm almost hopeful that he doesn't get a long term extension, plays on the franchise tag, has another big year..."
• Adam [35:49]: "Olave and Garrett Wilson are examples of why advanced metrics can be deceiving. These guys are better than the numbers they've put up."
• Heath [40:18]: "We need Chris Olave or Garrett Wilson to get someone close to Dak Prescott and then they will be as great as Pickens was."
• Dave [60:28]: "The biggest takeaway… it’s really about weighing: what's changed, and is it for the better or for the worse?"

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News & Notes (Timestamps Referenced)

• [05:17] Malik Neighbors (injury uncertainty) slides lower in rankings; safer to take Jefferson, Lamb, London, Rice, Olave/Pickens ahead for now.
• [07:58] Tank Dell expected to be ready for Week 1, but coach states return will come “sometime during the season.”
• [09:07] Kyle Pitts signs franchise tender, lowering chance of holdout.
• [09:24] Devon Achane skipping OTAs not a worry unless absence extends to camp.

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Table of Important Timestamps

| Segment / Player | Timestamp | |-------------------------|--------------------------------------| | Opening & Breakout Setup| [01:51] | | Garrett Wilson | [13:58] – [22:41] | | George Pickens | [22:41] – [32:48] | | Chris Olave | [32:48] – [41:46] | | Comparing WRs | [28:49] / Threaded throughout WRs | | Javonte Williams | [45:37] – [50:57] | | Quarterbacks (May/Lawrence) | [50:57] – [62:20] | | Confidence O-Meter | [62:20] – [64:44] |

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Final Takeaways

• Quarterback Play Rules All: The common refrain is that improvement in QB play is the biggest catalyst for WR breakouts—and the biggest obstacle for those stuck with subpar passers.
• Pickens is Most Trusted: Of the breakouts, George Pickens is considered the safest bet to repeat as a WR1, mostly due to his landing spot with Dak Prescott and the Cowboys.
• Advanced Metrics Inform, Don’t Dictate: The team urges caution in over-weighting advanced stats, noting that poor QB play can mask elite talent.
• Skepticism for Running Backs: Even a workhorse season isn’t enough to guarantee high investment in RBs like Javonte Williams, reflecting fantasy’s WR-centric landscape.
• Cautious Optimism on QBs: Both Drake May and Trevor Lawrence can repeat if their environments hold steady, but don’t bank on rushing TD outliers or statistically unsustainable air yards.

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For New Listeners

This breakdown gives a detailed run-through of the key debates and lessons. The FFT crew’s friendly back-and-forth—often laced with playful jabs and data deep dives—shows their commitment to arming listeners with actionable insights for 2026 fantasy drafts.

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Transcript

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[Heath]

This is Fantasy Football today from CBS Sports.

[Adam]

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[Jamie]

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[Heath]

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[Dave]

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Now here's some combination of. Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.

[Adam]

Welcome to the show, Everybody. On Wednesday, April 8, it's fantasy football today. Are we buying the breakouts from 2025? Garrett Wilson did even break out. I might have to try to convince myself and others that he did. George Pickens, he certainly did. He was wide receiver six per game. His first time finishing in the top 30 per game. Chris Olave broke out. He was wide receiver seven per game. His first time finishing in the top 20. Javante Williams broke out. He was a top 12 running back on a per game basis. And of course, Drake May broke out. He almost won the Super Bowl. And Trevor Lawrence had his best season. He averaged 23.2 fantasy points per game in six point per passing touchdown. League's first time over over 20 points per game. Okay, Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, we're all here talking about those breakouts. We got some news and notes. Heath, do you think Garrett Wilson had a breakout year last year.

[Heath]

I mean, no, because probably the smartest person in the fantasy industry has a very specific way of describing breakouts and distinguishing between sleepers and breakouts and sleepers win you weeks and breakouts when you leagues and Garrett Wilson didn't win anybody a league last year.

[Adam]

He did win you. He did win you four weeks, though. He finished.

[Jamie]

He won you a month. He had a breakout month.

[Adam]

He did.

[Jamie]

He did.

[Adam]

Well, we'll talk about it.

[Heath]

If we included every player who had a breakout month in our breakouts from last year, this show would be as long as beyond the Box Score.

[Adam]

I think I've just been dying to talk there's no way I've just been dying to talk about Garrett Wilson because I when, when Jamie, Dan and I did a mailbag a couple weeks ago, it seemed like I had a completely different outlook or view on what he did last year. So he'll he's one guy we're talking about. Dave, what do you think? We've seen great finishes for Trevor Lawrence before. Trevor Lawrence in his first, I want to say 710 game, first 10 games of the season he was QB 22 per game. In four point he was QB 17 per game. A lot of rushing touchdowns.

[Dave]

Right.

[Adam]

Week nine on yeah, well last, last seven games was the number one quarterback in fantasy. Why does this feel different for Lawrence than say the end of, I want to say the 2023 season.

[Jamie]

Yeah.

[Adam]

Which was really good.

[Dave]

So a couple of players emerged for Jacksonville during that breakout. It was Parker Washington that started to happen in week seven, not necessarily week nine. And then Jacobe Myers arrived in week 10. And I think those guys helped him out a lot. I think the offensive line staying healthy all year was a big plus. And and his own just ability overall, that includes his rushing, certainly padded his stats. Yeah, I think I think we can buy into a degree on Trevor Lawrence. I think we can look at him as a top 12 quarterback.

[Adam]

Okay. We'll get back into the breakouts in a little bit. Let's talk about some news and notes. Jamie Malik, Neighbors, based on what John Harbaugh said, doesn't seem likely to be ready for the start of training camp. Harbaugh said closer to the start of the season doesn't mean he won't be ready for week one. Also Giants defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence and cornerback Paulson Adibo didn't show up for OTAs. But as far as Neighbors goes and not necessarily not being ready for the start of of training camp, which seems like the most likely scenario now does that Change anything for. Did we already assume that? What do you think?

[Jamie]

I mean it's not ideal clearly, you know, so you're going to have to just play the waiting game depending on when your draft is and how early you want to buy into a guy that still has massive potential. But clearly the, the also the potential to, you know, miss some time or be a little bit delayed at the start of the season or you know, hopefully not, but suffer a setback. So I think you have to use caution, you know, and, and sort of this determine. You know, we spent some time talking about Justin Jefferson last week. I think it's easy to take Jefferson over neighbors right now. We talked a little bit about when we did bus, you know, CD Lamb and where he should go. I think clearly you're going to take Lamb over neighbors. Drake London over neighbors. Rashi Rice over neighbors, you know, so now you start to get to the sliding scale of where he goes and I would guess at least for me, you know, he's going to be closer to that Chris Olave, George Pickens, T. Higgins group, you know, back end of the top 12 if not sliding out of the top 12 if this continues to get worse from a news standpoint. So you know, when your drafts happen in late August, hopefully he's back out there, everything is fine and you can draft him I think as early as probably for me middle of round two. But you know, somebody that is probably looking at more like around late round two, early round three pick at this

[Heath]

point I, I think every name that Jamie said I would take over Malik Neighbors except for T. Higgins and I have T. Higgins one spot behind Malik Neighbors.

[Adam]

You take Olave and Pickens over him.

[Jamie]

Yeah, I think you have to at this point.

[Adam]

Okay, well, yeah, obviously that's subject to change based on the health I was actually watching.

[Jamie]

I, I do think that this is going to be a somewhat of a benefit for Jackson Darts value because my guess is the upside of Jackson Dart and drafting Jackson Dart is well, he did this last year without Malik Neighbors and now you're giving him neighbors. And so when you start to look at QB's 5, 6, 7, 8, you know he's. He's going to be probably ranked in that range or ADP is going to put him in that range. And if you are scared of drafting him there when you're comparing him to Jalen Hurts and Jane Daniels and you know, for me, Justin Herbert, you know, those type of guys, you push them down a little bit, you hope to get them at a cheaper cost.

[Adam]

I was watching a clip of Matt Harmon's podcast. He had Matt Waldman on. Heath, I haven't gotten to listen to your episode yet, but that'll be.

[Heath]

I'm glad.

[Adam]

Glad you got your priorities straight today. Well, it was like one you listen

[Jamie]

to a different podcast. Got it.

[Adam]

One minute clip.

[Heath]

I mean, I think Waldman's been on like seven podcasts this month. So you can just go through them and maybe you can get to mine after the Drift.

[Adam]

No, I will get after the show I'm going to be listening to.

[Heath]

I mean, I think you're a great success in the Baked Burger Dynasty League and the FFG Dynast shows that you really don't need to listen to any Dynasty podcast. You've pretty much figured that format out.

[Adam]

Or maybe I should stop listening because it is the only Dynasty show that I listen to. Heath. Anyway, he, he was talking about where he has Carnell Tate ranked in terms of his grades and he said it's pretty close to where he had Luther a little bit better than where he had Luther Burden, but not really. No one's approached Malik Neighbors basically, is what he was saying. Like Malik Neighbors. He had his 95 score. It's just a reminder of type of prospect Malik Neighbors was. All right. Devon HN didn't report for OTAs. Deshaun Watson has been medically cleared, according to Zach Jackson of the Athletic. Jonathan M. Alexander of the Houston Chronicle expects Tank Dell to be ready for Week one.

[Heath]

Good.

[Dave]

That's great.

[Jamie]

Yeah, it's good that the one of the writers expects that when the coach kind of poo pooed it.

[Heath]

Well, did he Poo Poo Week 1 or Poo Poo the street at Startup training camp?

[Jamie]

I thought he said we'll have him at some point during the season is what D' Amico said. So it could be last week one. Right.

[Adam]

Kyle Pitts signed his franchise tender. It's a one year deal, about $15 million. But he can negotiate a long term deal up to July 15th.

[Heath]

That significantly reduces the chance of a holdout.

[Jamie]

Right?

[Adam]

Yep.

[Heath]

Because when you.

[Jamie]

Right.

[Heath]

Yeah.

[Dave]

Right.

[Heath]

It costs him money now if he does.

[Jamie]

Yep.

[Dave]

Right.

[Heath]

Fantastic.

[Dave]

Yeah. Whereas Devon H.N. could hold out. He's in the last year of his deal. Missing OTAS is one thing. I don't think anybody's worried about that. But if we get to training camp and he's not showing up in Miami, yikes. I don't know if I'd be as excited to take him with an early Round one pick as I am right now.

[Jamie]

I would. I would guess based on the comments and the reporting about. He's one of our pillars and we're not going to trade him. All that stuff is. There's been contract discussions going on already and he's probably just waiting until that deal comes out so that he doesn't do anything to injure himself or. Because I'll be bs and they're trying to trade him and they don't want him get hurt before they do it.

[Adam]

I don't know if this has been mentioned. Oh, sorry, Dave. But with a Chan, I. I think the first concern is going to be

[Jamie]

he's gotta say first names now.

[Dave]

Yeah. Right. Which a Chan are you speaking of?

[Adam]

Adam Divide. Hn. Thank you, Devin. A Chain as we used to know him. You know, he's on such a bad offense. On such a bad offense. The Dolphins are 25th in points per game last year. They were not terrible. They could certainly be worse than that, but they weren't. They weren't a good offense last year and he was terrific.

[Heath]

I. I think the bigger concern is how much Malik Willis throws to him.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Heath]

Because they could be terrible. And if he has 90 targets, it doesn't really matter.

[Jamie]

His. His receptions, as we discussed in the bus episode, like not cratered, but they certainly were decreased when Tua left the field.

[Adam]

Yeah. It was only a few games, but yes, absolutely. Okay. Beyond the Box Score. Jamie mentioned it. He's mentioned it. I'll mention it now. Oh, Dave mentioned it before the show even started. We all love beyond the Box, where they have their own YouTube channel. So go to YouTube and search for beyond the Box Score. You're going to get great insight there. Obviously, they have their own audio channel as well, but that's a wonderful podcast. We have so many great podcasts. Go to CBSSports.com podcasts for a full list. Let's get it.

[Dave]

I can see you didn't listen to yesterday's edition of beyond the Box Score.

[Adam]

Were you on it?

[Dave]

I was.

[Adam]

How'd that go?

[Dave]

I replaced Jacob Gibbs. And so was Dan and I talking draft prospects for an hour. And I am no Matt Waldman, but I do my best. We went over all the top guys and where we'd like to see them play and where we draft them in Dynasty and Redraft. So it might be a good starting point for everybody to go back and watch. If you're thinking about the 2026 draft, you've got a couple weeks before the draft actually happens to go and watch that episode. Me and Dan, it Was only an hour. It was a lot of fun.

[Adam]

So how many, how many running backs, wide receivers and tight ends do you think will be drafted in the first

[Dave]

round of the NFL draft? We're going to get one running back, we're going to get one tight end and I'm going to say five wide receivers in the first round.

[Adam]

Okay. How many wives? Yeah.

[Heath]

Be fantastic for my three leagues where I have the sixth or the seventh pick because.

[Dave]

Oh yeah, you're. You should be okay having. You should, you should feel okay about having a pick in the middle of round one in a rookie only draft.

[Heath]

Yeah. I think the thing to caution people on is draft capital is going to boost some prospects. But if it's really a bad draft class, somebody has to go in round one.

[Dave]

Right.

[Heath]

Maybe shouldn't like the boost that it normally is.

[Adam]

Yeah, I mean there are.

[Dave]

So we're going to get a receiver on Cleveland, we're going to get a receiver on Miami, and you're going to have to make the call on do. Is this receiver in a position to succeed given the rest of the offense in those two places specifically?

[Adam]

Oh, there's just a lot of, a lot of wide receiver busts at the end of. Of round one. Like I, I don't know that we should call them busts yet. But like Xavier Worthy, Ricky Pierce, all Xavier Leggette, Keon guy in Buffalo. Yeah. Then Lamb Accounty was the next.

[Heath]

Young Coleman was round two, wasn't he?

[Adam]

He was the first pick of round two.

[Heath]

Totally different.

[Adam]

Jalen Polk. Jalen Polk went 37th overall in that draft and this was a, this was a great receiver draft too. This was Marvin Harrison Jr. Malik neighbors, Roma, Dunze in the top 10.

[Heath]

Those guys have all produced multiple great fantasy seasons.

[Adam]

Yeah, but it was a great receiver

[Heath]

or one between the three of them.

[Adam]

But you know what I'm saying. I mean, it was a strong class. It's a strong class. Those guys were going at the end of round one. Yes. Anyway, okay, let's get into buying the

[Jamie]

breakout 2027 draft already.

[Adam]

Yeah, I know, right? Garrett Wilson is the first guy on my list. He played seven games. One of them, it was after he had missed a few games. He played 38 of the snaps. He left with an injury, didn't play again all season. If you look at his first six games, he finished top 12 in four of those six games. And it's actually the second straight season, Jamie, that Garrett Wilson has been really good. A top 13 wide receiver per game for the first six games. What happened two years ago, they traded for Devonte Adams. What happened this past year he got hurt and barely played again rest of season. So, yeah, I don't, I mean, are you buying that he is a top 13 wide receiver if he doesn't have to deal with, you know, a devonte Adams on his team, which he has been per game each of the last two seasons in some way of looking at it?

[Jamie]

Yes and no. I'm, I'm certainly buying that there's the potential for that. He's got to stay healthy. And obviously the quarterback situation for the jets has to be productive, whether that's Geno Smith for the entirety of the year or whoever they draft or add to this quarterback group, most likely, I would guess through the draft. But can, can sustain his, can sustain the level of production that Garrett Wilson needs, but really at this point, it's, it's health. Because I think what you saw from him last year in the role of being the alpha and if you want to put the 2024 season as well, you know, before the Devonte Adams trade, okay, it's fine. But like, it just felt like this was what we've been waiting to see, this type of production, this type of player, this type of opportunity and he was delivering. And so now can he stay healthy and, and do it for, you know, let's say 13 plus games? You know, at this point I would settle for 10 plus games, but obviously if he does it the majority of the season, then we could be talking about a top 10 guy. So you don't have to draft him as a top 13 wide receiver. I think that's the benefit of this. And as we've said many times, it feels like receivers, you know, the, the drop off gets unfortunately happens pretty quickly in, in terms of where we're looking at from the drafts we've done and certainly how last year finished. But this is the type of guy similar to a Crystal Lave or as we've seen a couple times in the last, you know, four or five years, like a Chris Godwin, you know, guy that you take a little bit later. He's not going to be that late, but a little bit later and ends up being a superstar, you know, so he has that type of pedigree, he has that type of sample size in a small capacity. Now he's just got to do it over the course of a full season. If he does, you're going to be thrilled with the type of player that you're getting. So I, I'm gonna look for this type of Guy probably I'm gonna look for Garrett Wilson, you know, depending on how I build my team and how receiver goes mid to late round three, hopefully round four. If he delivers that type of production, this is a league winning type of player.

[Adam]

All right, we got to take a quick break. I'll get everybody else's thoughts on Garrett Wilson when we come back. I'll show you his 17 game, 17 game paces in his healthy games or games he's played more than half the snaps in his four years. They're, they're very, they're pretty consistent. So kind of gives you an idea of maybe what to expect from Garrett Wilson. But he's a pretty fascinating player because quite frankly, statistically he's been pretty bad since he's come to the NFL. We'll talk about that when we come back on fantasy football today. Welcome back. Okay, Dave, what do you think went went right for Garrett Wilson last year and what needs to go right, will it go right again for him this year?

[Dave]

9.6 targets per game in his first five games. Four touchdowns in his first five games and that was with Justin Fields under center for most of it. There was a game in there where to Rod Taylor played. That needs to continue and I'm fairly optimistic it will because we saw in 2024 he averaged 9.1 targets per game. He earns them. He's a great route runner. He's a diverse route runner. He can run anything and as of now there isn't really anybody else that's really going to challenge him for that mantle in New York. And it's a team that's probably going to be playing in a lot of competitive games or trailing in a bunch of games. And I know Geno Smith's quarterback and the track record of receivers with Geno isn't great. But I do think that volume will be the number one reason why Garrett Wilson will be a good fantasy wide receiver.

[Adam]

Heath, your take on Garrett Wilson.

[Heath]

I would be 0% surprised if he outscores Malik Neighbors this year. I think he is a mid wide receiver too. I've got, I've got him projected for 14 and a half fantasy points per game. I'd also be not that surprised if the jets are just an absolute disaster and he has 85 catches for just over a thousand yards and score six touchdowns and we're all kind of disappointed.

[Adam]

Let me show you his 17 game pace in all four seasons. I took out three games. I took out two games as a rookie and one game last year. These are the only games in his career where he didn't hit 50 of the snaps and. Nope, that's not it. Sorry. I think this is it. I put it in a word, Doc, so. Pardon.

[Heath]

That's outstanding. I need to get. Let me get my glasses.

[Adam]

It's, it's roughly 1100 yards every year. The last two years, 101, 102 catches. That's been the 17 game pace the last two years, seven touchdowns. And ironically this year the jets threw, they throw like 15 touchdowns, 19 touchdowns, something horrible. And he was on pace for 11. So he actually had a high touchdown, higher touchdown rate this year.

[Jamie]

I mean he missed so much time, I'm sure those touchdowns would have been higher, right?

[Adam]

Well, not really, like that's a good question. But the. Let me tell you what the passing offense was, the passing offense. In the six games that he played healthy, the jets were on pace for 2,981 yards, which is obviously awful. And 20 touchdowns and only three interceptions. They averaged 28 pass attempts per game. So he did this in a really bad passing environment. But he's not a guy that's ever hit the 1200 yard mark or ever been on pace for 1200 yards. He finally had a good touchdown season since coming into the league. His numbers are just, they're just not that good. Garrett Wilson, yards per target, yards per outrun, yards per catch, Explosive play rate is an absolutely terrible explosive play rate. He doesn't do that much after the catch. It's kind of weird because I don't think he's that, I don't think he's a bad player, but.

[Heath]

Well, I mean, these numbers aren't bad. They're bad. If you expect a guy to be

[Adam]

a top 12 wide receiver, they're pretty bad. I mean, they're pretty below average to bad in almost every one of those stats. I mean, this is going to be

[Jamie]

one of these guys that we just continue to say, what if he gets a quarterback? You know, and so the hope would be he gets something to help him. It's not going to be most likely the start of 2026, maybe the end of 2026 if, let's say it's Ty Simpson and he becomes that Tyler Shuck type of player for the jets and can step in middle point of the year and elevate the guys around him like Shuck did with the lobby. So there's, there's a lot of ifs with this. Again, I don't think he should be reaching for Garrett Wilson, but if he hits, he's going to Hit I think better than anything he's done so far. Maybe outside the touchdowns that he was on base for last year.

[Adam]

Heath, I think it's the catch rate for him since he entered the league. Garrett Wilson is 86, 130 wide receivers with 100 or more targets in the last four years. He's 86th in catch rate and he's only 90th in ADOT. That should be higher. He's 94 in yards per catch. He's 104th in yards per target. He's 102nd in explosive play rate. That's out of 130 wide receivers with 100 or More targets in that stretch.

[Heath]

I was just explaining catch rate to my 16 year old yesterday because he was under the impression that catch rate was only including balls that like hit guys hands And I think it's probably worth remembering like I know Zach Wilson, Mike White, Joe Flacco, Chris Drevler, Trevor Simeon, Tim Boyle, Aaron Rodgers to Rod Taylor, Justin Fields. He has played with a lot of quarterbacks who have targeted him and not put the ball in a place where he could catch it.

[Adam]

Well, I mean that's probably true. Do you think that explains why he's 8? He's 86th and catch rate out of 130 wide receivers. He's Garrett Wilson. He should be better than this. He should be. He look again and he still he doesn't make big plays. Now I've watched.

[Heath]

Did you hear that list of names?

[Adam]

I did but what about George Pickens? Like George Pickens in his first three seasons had much better numbers and, and again in his fourth season like George Pickens, yards per target, yards per catch. This guy made big plays. Garrett Wilson doesn't. Now I think it's mostly the quarterback's fault too because I've watched.

[Heath]

I mean the fact that he had a 66 catch rate the year that he played with Aaron Rodgers I think indicates that it's probably the quarterbacks.

[Adam]

Probably. All right, let's move on to to George Pickens who was the the number six wide receiver per game. He had an incredible season. He had nine touchdowns over 1400 yards in 17 games and didn't play that much in Week 18. His numbers were even better if you want to remove that. But either way just so good. Dave, are you buying the George Pickens breakout because that was his first season finishing in the top 30.

[Dave]

Yeah, I mean I think he's going to be top 12 ish Type of wide receiver moving forward. We talked about him earlier. I don't think it was this week. It might have been last week, I can't remember.

[Jamie]

But yeah, he had one of your busts, right?

[Heath]

He's.

[Dave]

His numbers were considerably better when CD Lam was out. When CD Lamb played, there were 12 games with Lamb. That doesn't include Week 18. He averaged only 16.1 PPR points per game and 8.3 targets per game. Obviously that's great, but I don't know if that makes him worthy of being taken where he was in the fantasy pros consensus rankings. I thought that that was a little bit too high. Does that mean that I think that he's going to be a total bus? No, I just think that he was ranked a little too soon and I would have taken some other players ahead of him at the time. And as long as Dallas is going to be one of these offenses that's going to keep throwing the ball, and I think they will be, that's going to mean great things for both Lamb and Pickens. And I think a fair expectation should be in that neighborhood of 16 PPR points per game.

[Adam]

Jamie. So that what Dave just said includes weeks one and two. He wasn't really all that involved in weeks one and two. This is the sample size of Pickens with CD Lamb after Lamb. The next four games with Lamb out was insane. It was 1800 yard, 21 touchdown pace for Pickens. So how about the last 10 games? Where did these guys both rank last 10 games? Week seven through 17. I'm not even going to count week 18. George Pickens was the number seven wide receiver overall, number 11 per game. CD Lamb was the number nine wide receiver overall, number 13 per game. They both averaged 16 to 17 PPR fantasy points per game. Dak Prescott was on pace for 4,871 yards, 29 touchdowns, 12 picks. So he was actually better than Lamb. Lamb had a few more targets, but, you know, what do you, what do you think went right for. For Pickens, why he was able to have this amazing breakout season?

[Jamie]

I think it was a combination of showing his quarterback, his coach, and maybe even himself what he can do with a great quarterback when there's not another alpha receiver on the field. So that time that Lamb was out really, I think boosted everybody's confidence in Pickens, including himself. I think obviously playing in a better environment with great quarterback, you know, for lack of better words, you know, at least an above average quarterback. And Dak Prescott was, was probably the best thing for him. You know, go back to what he said about Garrett Wilson and what's been lacking for him. Pickens, you. You sort of compared the two. Pickens clearly had lackluster quarterback play to start his career. And then he gets with Prescott and we see what he's capable of doing. And then I think being in a contract year, you know, so I'm almost hopeful that he doesn't get a long term extension, plays on the franchise tag, has another big year and then maybe gets the payday that he's looking for. But in, in the case of what Pickens is still capable of doing, you know, I think you just put him in this offense and hopefully we're looking at another great receiver duo where both guys can, you know, perform at a high level and give us the production that we're looking for without one necessarily negating the other to a point where it's a problem. You know, I thought CD Lamb was a little bit of problem last year. You know, touchdowns were certainly an issue. So, you know, you like to see Lamb bounce back to, to a level that, you know, we're comfortable with when you're drafting him in round one. But I do think, you know, day has a point where, you know, it might be a little bit too soon to be drafting Pickens in round two. But I think again, when you look at the, the range of wide receivers that are going to go in that spot, the names again being, you know, probably trying to think it might start that run. But like, you know, after we get past Lamb, London, Jefferson, you know, this is where picking starts to come into play. Rice, you know, this is where we start to see, you know, George Pickens name being mentioned. You have to probably pull the trigger on it if you want to get him on your fantasy roster. So I would prefer him in round three. I think we're going to see late round two, early round three is where his ADP will probably settle and hopefully he continues to be just as involved, if not maybe more than Lamb if they continue to feature him like they did. Clearly Jerry Jones likes him. Clearly Brian Schottenheimer likes him. Clearly Dak Prescott likes him. So as long as there's no holdout, I think you're looking at George Pickens as and having a chance for another season at this level.

[Adam]

Yeah, he's.

[Heath]

I mean there were 615 snaps last year where Lamb and Pickens were both on the field. Because even if you look at that post week seven, there's a game where CD Lamb played like 45 of the snapshot. You look at the 600 snaps where they played together, which is probably 60 of the snaps they'll play over a full season. The 29 target share for Lamb, a 24 target share for Pickens. Pickens had what's 90 targets, caught 62 of them at 946 yards. Like, that's just on six. Little over 600 snaps with Lamb on the field. So I, I think both of these guys can be top 12 wide receivers. Lamb, I only have one spot ahead of Pickens in the rankings, but it's a. It's a different tier. So I. For me, it's. It's Jefferson and Pickens and A.J. brown and Chris Olave are kind of all in that tier. After the seven wide receivers that I have clearly at the top.

[Adam]

One thing that changed, two things that changed for Pickens that I love was the adot went down and the route tree changed. By far the lowest go route percentage. He ran more in breaking routes. He just, I think, was used too much as a vertical guy in Pittsburgh and was a more versatile player with Dallas and showed his skills.

[Dave]

And Pittsburgh also didn't throw as much.

[Adam]

No, that's true. That's true. And, you know, but he didn't have this. He did his first year with Deontay Johnson, but he didn't have this kind of target competition in Pittsburgh, but everything was better. And you know what? When Dak Prescott's healthy, he. His last four healthy seasons where he's played more than 12 games, they've thrown for 4,660 or more yards. He's just so good. Thomas, can we bring up the graphic showing the efficiency of these three receivers? We're talking about Olave. So 130 wide receivers with 100 or more targets in. It says first four NFL seasons. That's just for the three guys here. It's over the last four seasons. Wilson, Olave, and Pickens, they're all in the same draft class. So Wilson and Olave have had a much higher target per out run rate. Yards per out run, Wilson's 45th, Olave 17th, Pickens 24th. Again, this is out of 130 wide receivers. But look at Pickens, what he does when he's targeted. Fifth in yards per catch, six in yards per target, 23rd in fantasy points per target. Whereas Olave is 72nd in fantasy points per target. And Garrett Wilson is 110th in fantasy points per target. Big player that is.

[Heath]

Yeah, like, that's directly related to the first number that you. The first number all the way to the left.

[Adam]

The target per route run.

[Heath]

Right, the target per route run. Like guys who Get a lot of targets, don't score as many fantasy points per target.

[Adam]

That's interesting. I mean, I wonder where like Pukinaku, I mean, maybe I shouldn't compare them to the best of the best, right?

[Heath]

Yes, I think we could, we could take the like Jamar Chase and JSN last year out of that conversation probably. You know, but these guys are not those guys.

[Adam]

I feel like Jamar.

[Heath]

The reason is because generally speaking, guys who get a lot of targets, those targets are closer to the line of scrimmage.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Heath]

And targets downfield, if they come more sporadically, generally. But they do turn into more fantasy points.

[Adam]

Okay. So you don't really. So when you compare these three guys, Wilson, Olave and Pickens, they're going to go in a similar range. You know, Wilson will probably be last, but you don't care that much about the efficiency because Pickens crushes the other guys inefficiency. Even Olave, in his breakout year last year didn't really have an efficient season. Right.

[Heath]

I, I, I've just like, I strongly prefer Pickens. But the biggest reason why is that Pickens is playing with Dak Prescott.

[Jamie]

Okay. Yeah.

[Adam]

I thought was what was remarkable about Pickens is that he had really good efficiency even before going to Dak Prescott. And I just wonder if he's just an awesome receiver, you know, and finally got a chance to show it. If we're talking about buying the breakout. Right. If you give this guy targets he's going to do a lot with. Hasn't been the case for the other guys for Wilson.

[Dave]

And it was last year.

[Jamie]

You saw it last year.

[Adam]

You did see it last year, but, but you didn't see it the previous years. And this was not the first time he got a lot of targets. He just caught more touchdowns this past year.

[Heath]

So did George Pickens.

[Adam]

Yeah. That's also what it comes down to with these guys.

[Jamie]

Right.

[Heath]

Like, like pickens the, the three years before this year at a 57, a 59 and a 61 catch rate, and he'd never scored more than five touchdowns in a year. Then he gets to go play with a real quarterback and he scores nine touchdowns and has a 68 catch rate.

[Adam]

Yeah. But also the cat. I think the catch rate had a lot to do with the eight odd and the route and the route tree.

[Jamie]

I think it's all of it. I mean, you know, you got to put the whole package together. Like Johnny Airport just put a comment in the chat, you know, what a difference a decent quarterback makes. And I think we obviously saw that for Pickens. We may have seen it, hopefully have seen it for Olave, and I think we're still waiting to see it for Garrett Wilson.

[Adam]

All right, so let's talk about Olave. Because Pickens was number six per game in ppr. Olave was number seven per game. This wasn't one of those years where he, you know, crushed it in, in the metrics necessarily, but he just, he was really good and he, he did

[Jamie]

one, stayed healthy and he took off with Shuck.

[Adam]

I mean, he was, he was much better with Shock than he was. And that was also after they traded Shahid. But the target share didn't really go up that much. Just the efficiency went way up with Tyler Schuck. Jamie, what was your take on what happened? How did the breakout happen for Olave?

[Jamie]

I mean, to me the biggest thing was he stayed healthy. That's a big part of what's been a problem for him. But, you know, quarterback play I think improved, you know, what he's dealt with. Not that Derek Carr was bad, but I think Tyler Shuck for him was just a little bit better. But obviously the year before, Carr was dealing with injuries, so it was a mess across the board. I think you just look at Olave and very similar to, you know, to, to the other two guys, but the, the potential has kind of always been there and it was. Can they get things sort of aligned to, you know, see it and see it happen? And so Kellen Moore's offense, I think is. Is very suited for high end receiver production. It's certainly suited, I think, for Olave and for him to be the alpha in this offense. And so we'll see if he's going to get a contract extension. This is another guy you might have to keep an eye on from a holdout perspective, but hopefully everything is fine for him and he shows up and, you know, can get that big deal. But I think just looking at it right now, you know, we'll see what the NFL draft does. But this receiving core is his and, you know, it's an opportunity for him to go out and have another season where he's gonna, you know, be at the top of the leaderboard in targets if he stays healthy and have a chance to be one of the better receivers in the league. So I don't think again, he's in that same category as the top five or six guys, but in that next group, you know, Heath mentioned, you know, where the tier change happens. I think he's in that, you know, tier three, you know, wide receiver range of guys that you should be looking at in the back end of round two certainly falls around three. You should be, you know, excited to take him there. There's just a lot to love about what Chris Olave showed last year, I think, and do it again.

[Heath]

I think it was very similar to what happened with. I mean, Jamie said it first, like he stayed healthy and then otherwise it was very similar to the Terry McLaurin breakout from a year ago.

[Adam]

Yes.

[Heath]

Like the, the 2023 Chris Olave and 2025 Chris Olave are not that much different. Except that Chris Olave scored nine touchdowns last year, so.

[Adam]

Right. So doesn't that make you a little hesitant on Chris Olave this year because you're. I thought.

[Heath]

I'm not ranking him where he finished last year.

[Adam]

No, but where are you taking him? The third round.

[Heath]

He's in that, in that group of round three wide receivers.

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Adam]

And I agree. I mean, I. Again, it might sound like I'm a. I'm obsessed with advanced metrics. I think Olavi and Garrett Wilson are examples of why advanced metrics aren't really.

[Jamie]

Are.

[Heath]

Are.

[Adam]

Can be deceiving. These guys are better than, than the numbers they've put up. But I.

[Jamie]

Sample size. Are you using the advanced metrics? Because the ones that you showed over four year span, it's like there, there's so many different versions of those guys.

[Adam]

Not really. That's the. I mean, yes, there are going to be some variations, but Olave, his first year I think was like very efficient. But this guy hasn't exactly, you know, he hasn't been like an elite receiver based on advanced metrics. And he wasn't last year either. He just got more targets, especially at the end of the year, and he scored more touchdowns. He had a huge fantasy playoffs, by the way. The last three games of the year really boosted his season. He scored over 20 points in all three of them. But it was the touchdowns. Despite the Saints throwing 19 touchdowns on the year, he had nine. He had 10 in the first three seasons combined. So if he's. Look, I don't know that Tyler Schuck's gonna be a great quarterback if he's on a team that's throwing 24 touchdowns and he gets six. I feel like he could be a bus like Terry McLaurin was a bus. I know there was a holdout, but Terry McLaurin had three touchdowns in 10 games last year.

[Jamie]

You can't, you can't compare McLaurin 2024 and 2025.

[Adam]

I think you can. I think you can. I think he.

[Jamie]

Oh, I mean, 20. He. The holdout was a disaster. That's been somewhat proven for guys that have held out his quarterback missed the majority of the year. I mean, I get it.

[Adam]

But also, it was more in line with the rest of his career. All I'm saying is, you know, if we look at Olave, did anything really change room other than the touchdowns, the coach, the quarterback.

[Heath]

The quarterback, his target share was a little bit higher than it was in 2023 also. But part of that's probably just Rashid Shahid left. And Michael Thomas was still there for half of a year in 2023, if you can believe that.

[Adam]

Yeah. So you guys buying it with him?

[Jamie]

I think you got a Biola and Garrett Wilson with the same sort of, you know, what you. You view them sort of, sort of the similar way. You know, like you're hopeful that what we saw sample size for Wilson year for Olave can carry over. I'm much more confident. A lot of it. And Wilson, you know, because again, the. The things that you look for are there, or at least the two of the things you look for there. Coach and quarterback, you know, with. With the jets, like, the quarterback situation should scare the hell out of you. For Garrett Wilson, the health just. Just still scare you. For Garrett Wilson, I think in the case of Olave, barring a holdout, like, we could be looking at a guy that, I don't know, ascends to elite status. You know, if you want to start to, you know, put the advanced metrics with this, but can certainly be in that next group of guys. And so like, we were talking with Nico Collins, like, I think if. If Olave has that type of career track, I don't, I don't think he has maybe the ceiling that Nico has if everything goes right for both of those guys, because we've seen what Nico can do. But just a very good fantasy wide receiver that you should be happy to have on your team. If you tell me I'm getting 17 games or again, I, I always like to use the. The 13 number. 13 plus games of. Of Chris Olave in this role, I think he's going to deliver a pretty good number for you, you know, so again, I don't want to take him in round two. I've seen where our drafts and our receiver, you know, where receivers come off the board. Unfortunately, I think that's where the range puts him in, you know, so if you take Bijan or, or Gibbs. Gibbs, Bijan and one or two and you come back on that turn. This is the type of receiver you're looking at if you want to take a receiver in round with your second pick.

[Heath]

I, I just, and I know it kind of frustrated you how much we focus on the quarterback, but I think even like when you're showing that four year window and a fourth of it for, for George Pickens is with Dak Prescott. Like it's. We need Chris Olavi or Garrett Wilson to get someone close to Dak Prescott and then they will be. And Olave did it last year because he scored the touchdowns. But they will, I think they will be as great as George Pickens was. Pickens before last year and oddly his route depth was actually higher last year than it had been in Pittsburgh's which I, I guess they probably just had him run fewer screen routes or something maybe. But his yards per route run were 10 better last year than it's, than it's ever been before. His first downs per route run were almost double what it's been before his. He had more red zone, end zone target. Everything just got better. And his success rate had never been above 48% in Pittsburgh. It was 64% last year.

[Dave]

It's a really good lesson to learn

[Adam]

but if you look at the first three seasons of his career in Pittsburgh, he's not going to be as good as Olave. And yards per route run because he, because Pickens didn't get targeted as much. But yards per target, he crushes both of them. Yards per catch. I assume he, George Pickens crushes both of them. Yeah, he was seventh.

[Dave]

Right.

[Adam]

In his first three seasons he was seventh best in yards per catch. This was his Pittsburgh years and big play rate. I'm assuming he's the guys who were

[Heath]

above him and I don't know who they are, but I would guess the top 10 in yards per catch were not guys who generally get a lot of targets.

[Adam]

Well, how about explosive play rate? I mean this is the thing about Olave and Wilson is that they just, especially Wilson, they just don't make big plays. My take is I actually watched the deep balls for the last two years for Garrett Wilson and a lot of it is on the quarterbacks. I mean we agree the quarterbacks are a huge problem. But I'm just, I'm putting out there on paper Garrett Wilson's. He has really troubling metrics. I don't really care that much.

[Jamie]

Look, it's. Pickens would have been drafted higher then. We all know this at this point. You know, if injury and. And some of the. The personality problems that he may have had. Yeah, I don't want to say off field stuff, but personality stuff. He would have gotten drafted. He would have been taken higher in the NFL draft. Put them all on Dallas. They're all opposite CD Lamb. Do they all do a Pickens did last year?

[Adam]

They certainly could.

[Jamie]

They certainly could. Right. So that's the, that's the thing. And I think in the case of like you just individualize all three of them. Pickens got the quarterback upgrade.

[Adam]

Yes.

[Jamie]

May have gotten the quarterback up.

[Adam]

So that's my question. Let me just finish with this. We got to take a break. Do you guys seem pretty confident? Well, my sense is you seem confident in Tyler Shuck. I know Geno Smith. Jamie, you said it's got to scare the hell out of you. Absolutely. But Tyler Shuck, how confident are you in him, you know, delivering a good season for Chris Olave or being part of.

[Jamie]

I'll say this, if we knew we're sitting here a year from now, God willing, and it's Chris Olave coming off another productive year. He got a contract extension. Tyler Schuck built off of what he did. I think we're talking about Chris Olave as a borderline top five receiver if it goes the same way.

[Dave]

Points with shock in half a season last year. So yeah.

[Jamie]

Right. Right now it's. This is what we just got finished talking about in the previous show. Wow. Brian Thomas finished the year like a monster in his rookie season. Lab Makaki finished his rookie season like a monster.

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

Like this feels similar to that. More so than it does the other scenario of we're. We're banking on a small sample size of receiver and quarterback and now attaching it to the following year. The difference is we're, we're drafting Thomas and at least Thomas for sure, but McConkey in this range. And so I think Olave's body of work obviously matters a little bit here. Again, we're saying quarterback. Quarterback. I think coach matters just as much. Getting Kellen Moore is huge for Olave. It's huge for the Saints, you know, and this is where the jets and Garrett Wilson are lacking. You have a huge if at quarterback and I think still a huge if. Even if Frank Reich comes back and is, you know, rejuvenated and can, you know, relive some of the, the high end magic that he had, it's still an if because it wouldn't shock me at all if the jets get off to a slow start. And Aaron, let's fire. I mean, you know, there's just so much uncertainty with that team, especially if they somehow botched the draft, knowing that they got all this draft capital. So I'm hopeful that things move in the right direction for Garrett Wilson. But yes, when you, when you start to say confidence scale, you know, when you want to do all your, you know, oh, meters.

[Adam]

Yeah, confidence o meter.

[Jamie]

It's, it's Pickens in a runaway and then Olave and then Garrett Wilson.

[Adam]

Another guy who had a huge finish last year with a young quarterback was. Sorry two years ago was Cortland Sutton. And then Bo Nix took a big step back and Sutton was just kind of okay. So I don't know. I guess that's sort of on my mind is I could see Tyler Schuck taking a step back. He was good. He wasn't great, but I. He wasn't supposed to be. Wasn't a big prospect or anything like that. And he's, he was an old prospect, too.

[Jamie]

So.

[Adam]

Yeah, I think what I was trying to say with all these metrics is that if we can agree that Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave have been held back by bad quarterback play throughout their career, career, we have to ask the question, how good do we feel about their quarterback play in 2026? We're not questioning them. We still question their quarterbacks. We don't question that with George Pickens. And I think for many people it's going to, it's going to come down to how confident are you in Tyler Schuck? And then we'll, you know, we'll see how that plays out. All right, thank. Good stuff, guys. We got Javante Williams and a couple of quarterbacks to talk about on the other side of the break. We'll be right back.

[Heath]

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[Adam]

See experian.com for details. Experian Javante Williams, top 12 running back on a per game basis and overall first season finishing inside the top 24 per game. Great year for him and Heath. Are you wearing a Raven shirt?

[Heath]

I am not. This is a Liberty Flame shirt.

[Adam]

Oh, okay. Looks like a Raven shirt. Looks good on you.

[Heath]

No, thanks.

[Jamie]

Appreciate it.

[Adam]

What happened for Javante Williams last year, Heath?

[Heath]

He got used as a workhorse running back.

[Adam]

Is it that simple?

[Dave]

Pretty much.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Heath]

Yeah, I would, I would say it pretty much is. He had two more carries per game than he's ever had in his career. He had 18 touches per game. He scored touchdowns. He was on a good offense.

[Adam]

Should we take him ahead of Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson?

[Heath]

No.

[Dave]

What's the format?

[Jamie]

Maybe Wilson. Probably not.

[Adam]

Okay, how about half people? I'll make it harder for you. Half ppr?

[Dave]

I'd still probably lean toward the wide receiver there.

[Heath]

I, I think the, he's in that range of low end RB2s for me or mid range RB2s if you want to be generous. And like there's just a lot more of those than there are wide receivers that we can talk ourselves into getting excited about. I can find a running back in, in round seven or round six that I think can give me pretty close to Javante Williams. We get to round six or seven in the wide receivers and it's now maybe it'll feel better after the rookies get here, but it doesn't right now.

[Jamie]

You said, you said somebody's name on Monday show that I think is maybe this year's Devonte. Somebody's asked the question. So would you rather have Javante Williams in round four or assuming that there's nobody added Tony Pollard in round six.

[Heath]

Oh, Tony Pollard, yeah.

[Jamie]

That's why I probably say same thing.

[Adam]

So you. Do you think Tajie Spears has a, a noteworthy role? Because, I mean, there's just really nobody else in this backfield that's threatening Javante.

[Jamie]

Well, I think that's why you're taking Javante two rounds earlier. But again, you know, if you're saying you can get Garrett Wilson and Tony Pollard versus Javante Williams and Christian Watson, like, that's probably the comps you're looking at.

[Adam]

So why, why are we talking about Javante Williams as only a fourth round pick? He was, like I said, a top 12 running back. We love the Dallas offense. He is a workhorse. He averaged 4.8 yards per carry. So just throw it out there. I understand where you're coming from, but just to put it out there, Dave, why not more excitement about Javante after this season? He just had.

[Dave]

Well, we're familiar with what he did before he went to Dallas and I think it's a little bit different for running backs than it is for Wide receivers, like obviously who you play with matters and the offensive line matter batters and all that. But we've, we've seen Javante Williams not play with efficiency. In fact, we didn't see him play with great efficiency in the second half of last season. He averaged 11.8 PPR points per game in his last eight games. A lot of that has to come from the fact that he only scored four times. But that's an example of what he looks like when he's not getting a ton of touchdowns like he did in the first half of the year. His total yardage also fell by like 15 yards per game. It's that kind of stuff that makes you a little bit nervous. We know that Javante Williams isn't a phenomenal talent. It's. It's all about Dallas having nobody else. They, they added him with the idea of being, okay, we'll begin training camp or the off season or whatever with him as our passing downs back. And that's an important role in Dallas. And then they just realized that they didn't have anybody else. They didn't really make an effort to bring in anybody else to be a running downs guy. And so Javante was who they had and he ended up being good for fantasy. I, I can't say for sure that he can replicate that to a T. And that's why it's a lot easier even in half ppr to lean toward the wide receivers that have a little bit more upside than Javante.

[Adam]

I've made this point before. I'll make it again. Javante, just a plus for him, I'd say, is that I don't think he could possibly be as bad as a receiver as he was last year. One the he had the worst yards per catch and yards per target for a running back with 30 or more targets in at least 15 seasons. And so bad.

[Heath]

I talked about this and it was true for a couple of years with Ramandre. And then last year he was good as a pass catching back. But historically speaking, when you were that bad as a pass catching running back, by those measurements, you just don't get as many targets the following year.

[Adam]

Yeah, I, yeah, but, but this was a really bad year for Javante, right? I mean, he could easily, he could bounce back. And then who wasn't gonna say he's

[Heath]

not really ever been good in that role, has he?

[Adam]

I don't know, but he's been a good pass protector.

[Heath]

The, the number I was using when I used to do the Ramandre Stevenson thing was below, I think 4 yards per target and he's been below that now in three of his last four

[Adam]

seasons, I only had 2.2 catches per game. So it's not like receptions really got him much of his production anyway. Okay, let's get to the quarterbacks here and I'll lump them together. Drake May, QB3 per game. Trevor Lawrence, QB6 per game. Jamie, which do you think is more attainable in 2026? Drake May as QB3 or Trevor Lawrence is QB6?

[Jamie]

Drake May is QB6.

[Heath]

No, I, I would say Drake may buy a lot.

[Jamie]

I probably would lean Drake May, especially if A.J. brown's added. That's an easy one. But look, I, I think you got to give Trevor Lawrence and again, coaching matters here, Liam Cohen some credit because Liam Cohen in a year calling plays for Baker Mayfield, he was awesome and his rushing production was awesome. And then Trevor Lawrence gets with Liam Cohen last year and his production was awesome and his running production was awesome. And so I think that matters. You know, May is, is fascinating because we saw he was very efficient last year. He was great throwing the ball down the field. You brought this up a number of times, Adam, how he didn't throw as much as we may see this year because the schedule was so much in their favor and the way that they won games. If you look at the receiving cores right now, I think it's easy to lean toward the Jacksonville receiving corps and what they have and their weapons. You know, if Brian Thomas bounces back, if Parker Washington can replicate that, if Jacoby Myers is Jacoby Myers, you know, and whatever Travis Hunter has, like, you know, this Patriots receiving core is, hey, we added Romeo Dobbs. Like that just doesn't feel very exciting right now. And so that's the, the little bit of a, a drawback. But I mean obviously you're looking at, you know, Drake May did in year two what we've been waiting for Trevor Lawrence to do for his career and for a full season, you know, so, you know, yes, at the start of the show to Dave, you know, like what was different for Trevor Lawrence or you know, what, what made Trevor Lawrence successful in those final few games? Because we've seen it before. Because yes, we've seen it before in a five game sample size, an eight game sample size of this sample size, that sample size, we just haven't seen it over the course of season. So I'm hopeful that this is the, the year Trevor Lawrence puts it all together. But you know, again we feel we, we've fallen into this trap before. And hopefully we're not going to fall into it again. So long winded answer to say I guess Drake May is probably more replicable than than Trevor Lawrence.

[Heath]

There are two very important things that were different for Trevor Lawrence and I think one of them is probably more likely to repeat itself than the other. First off, the thing I talked about for four years with him is he just did not throw touchdowns and he had a career high 5.2% touchdown rate. That's not outlandish and I'd be willing to believe in this system he could possibly repeat a 5.2% touchdown rate. The second one was that he had nine rushing touchdowns and scored more than five fantasy points per game with his rushing. And yeah, I think there's a chance that he is a good running quarterback. I don't anticipate that he's going to finish second amongst all quarterbacks and rushing touchdowns again.

[Adam]

Dave, what's more replicable Drake May finishing his QB3 or Lawrence's QB6.

[Dave]

It's May. Even with the concerns about what his receiving core looks like because his rushing numbers are definitely replicable. We're talking about four rushing touchdowns. I think it was for Drake May that number could go up and the rushing yardage was solid for him too. I think it was in the 400 yard range. Correct me if I'm wrong, 450.

[Heath]

It was also.

[Dave]

Yeah, yeah. Thank you. So better completion rate, better metrics overall yards per attempt and he did it with. I mean I can't look at his receiving core and say that it was good, I mean or great. I should use the word great. It was good and he got a great year out of Booty. And Stefan Diggs was okay. Tight ends helped a lot. Anything else that the Patriots can do to improve their receiving core will make it easy for people to buy into Drake maybe without issue. And I think the offensive line will get better. Remember that was an issue for the Patriots last year. And it's not to say that Trevor Lawrence was going to suck because I like his receiving core as well. Jamie talked about it. I like his offensive line. I, I and one other thing in Trevor Lawrence's favor. Big fat question mark at running back, which we've talked about ad nauseam. So I think that there's going to be room for Trevor Lawrence to throw a bunch of run around. Not nine touchdowns, run around, but four and still be a good thrower like he was in the second half of last year.

[Adam]

You know, I think there is a stat that I should be looking up of Completed air yards or completed air yards per. Per completion? Because Drake May had a 72 or 73% completion percentage. 72% with 9.1 air yards per attempt. And I just went back and started looking if anybody came even close to that in recent years. Deshaun Watson had a year that was close to that. Ryan Tannehill had a year like that. And then obviously he never got back to that. So I think what Drake May did was probably too good to be true. Complete over 70% of your. Well over 70% of your passes with the second highest ADOT in the NFL. That's insane. So that'll regress a little, I think. But yeah. Heath, I'm glad you mentioned the rushing touchdowns. Trevor Lawrence. I just want to show Thomas, if you could. I'm just going to switch graphics. Yeah, I'm going to show his. His true media profile. Zoom in for you there. But as you can see. Well, you can't really see, but now you can see not much changed completion percentage kind of bad for the second year in a row. Yards per attempt. It's been exactly the same basically for four straight years. The touchdown rate did go up. The interception rate went down a little. It was those rushing touchdowns that. That saved him. I mean, the passer rating wasn't even really that good for him. Explosive play rate wasn't anything special. But there's the question, right? We keep talking about the last, last show in this show with guys who had these great stretches late in the year. Heath, he did average 8.4 yards per attempt in that last stretch. I think it was the last, what do we say, 10 games for Trevor Loans. I keep getting this. The splits mixed up. Last seven games when he was the number one quarterback in fantasy, averaged 8.4 yards per attempt, which is phenomenal. He averaged 31 fantasy points per game. You know, how do you look at that stretch and compare it to the full season, which was nothing special.

[Heath]

I would rather trust the full season, especially when we're talking about a guy who's a veteran in the NFL. So I, I think just. And I did look up just to check your. We only have completed air yards per attempt since 20.

[Adam]

Okay.

[Heath]

Drake Mays, 5.4 completed air yards per attempt is the second highest mark since 2018. Only six quarterbacks have been five yards or higher.

[Adam]

Who's number one? Tannehill.

[Heath]

Tannehill is not on the list. I don't think he was. I think that his season was probably pre 2018.

[Adam]

Oh, yeah, yeah.

[Heath]

I think, I think maybe Tua in 2022 was 5.7. 2020. Desean Watson.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Heath]

2019. Jameis Winston, 2020. Oh, 2019. Also Dak was over 5 and 2023, Brock Purdy. So a lot of guys who really followed that up with exactly the same thing the next year.

[Adam]

Did they?

[Heath]

No.

[Adam]

Oh, okay.

[Jamie]

The one thing that I like about Trevor Lawrence's situation, Baker Mayfield, 2024 with Liam Cohen. Career high passing yards, career high rushing yards, career high rushing touchdowns. Trevor Lawrence, career high rushing yards, career high rushing touchdowns. I think career high passing yards, only career high passing touchdowns. Baker in 2024 averaged 22.2 rushing yards per game. Trevor Lawrence, I think, is a better athlete, was at 21.1 rushing yards per game. So nine rushing touchdowns is not something you want to count on. But can he be five?

[Heath]

He could be. I think that that career high for Baker was three.

[Jamie]

It was three rush tests. Yeah.

[Dave]

Right.

[Jamie]

Yeah.

[Heath]

So.

[Jamie]

But again, better. Better athlete. So that's why I said five. You know, to me, five is. Is something that's on the high end. Should be on the high end. So I think you're just looking at if he's going to get an opportunity to rush for around 20 yards per game, that's going to give him chances to make plays, and if he's getting chances to make plays with now arguably the best receiving core of his career and probably the best coach of his career, there's a lot to like about Trevor Lawrence at his cost. You know, if you're talking about the cost of these two quarterbacks and you want to wait. You're waiting for. For Trevor Lawrence.

[Heath]

Yeah, I've got. I've got Lawrence at 368 and 4.1 in the projections for next year. So that's. Yeah, right between the three and the five.

[Adam]

And Baker Mayfield is a guy actually that took a very strong finish to the 2023 season and then actually broke out in 2024, you know, continued it. So sometimes those late season.

[Jamie]

And that was good coach to good coach. If you want to consider Dave Canalis a good coach. So Canal is to Cohen.

[Adam]

Yeah. All right. Anything else, Dave? Anything else to say?

[Dave]

No, I think. I think the biggest takeaway from today is when we're considering these players moving forward. It's. It's really about weighing what's changed and is it for the better or is it for the worse? And I. I look at what's. What's changed with these quarterbacks, just using these two as an example, and I think Lawrence's situation is just as good, if not better. And Drake May's situation is about the same as well. And that would encourage me on. On those two players specifically, that what they did last year could be replicated again to a degree. We agree on the rushing touchdowns for Trevor Lawrence, that seems a little bit too high, but I think that's. That's the kind of the. The exercise that we kind of have to go through with every player. What's changed and is it for the better? And if it's not for the better, then it's. It's up to you how fast you want to head for the hills on somebody like Garrett Wilson as an example, because I think his situation is not necessarily better, even though there's different quarterback, different coordinator and all that stuff.

[Jamie]

I think what's fascinating with Drake May is where he'll get drafted and how high he'll get drafted if they do get A.J. brown. So, like right now we're seeing him get selected as a top three quarterback. Does he go QB1 if AJ Brown is added?

[Adam]

Yeah, that'd be pretty awesome.

[Dave]

I'd be surprised if he went QB1, QB2. I would not be surprised.

[Jamie]

He was the first quarterback taken and maybe.

[Dave]

But I. I would rather have Josh Allen. I think most people would too.

[Heath]

They.

[Dave]

If it's not A.J. brown, it could be a rookie. They're gonna add somebody.

[Jamie]

A rookie's not going to push up Drake Mays.

[Dave]

No, no.

[Jamie]

To an extent it'll be. If they get A.J. brown, it's gonna send people spiraling. I think to a degree that May. May push him into a bust position.

[Adam]

All right, we're going to finish the show. Since Jamie actually personally requested it earlier without saying it, but said it without saying it. With the confidence O meter, I'm going to look at the fantasy pro Fantasy pros. What you say?

[Jamie]

I apologize retroactively.

[Dave]

He's a 10 on the apology O meter.

[Adam]

Yeah, I love the polyometer. I'm that one. I get a lot of the confidence o meter. I'm going to give you the fantasy pros consensus rankings for these six guys and you tell me 0 to 10, how confident are you that they will meet this ADP, that they will be this good? George Pickens, wide receiver, 10, 10, 7 7. Chris Olave, wide receiver, 1110 7. Garrett Wilson, wide receiver, 17 10, 5, 7. JB's making a mockery of the coffin.

[Jamie]

I'm not. I'm very confident. This is the range of these guys. I'm being serious.

[Adam]

Javante Williams, RB, 17, 10, 3 8. Drake May QB 376 Trevor Lawrence QB 10 10, 4, 8.

[Dave]

I don't know what that accomplished.

[Adam]

I'm sorry, Heath, did you say a number?

[Heath]

I said four.

[Adam]

Oh, okay.

[Heath]

I use this really strange pro process where if I had the guy ranked lower, then you said I said less than five and if I said the guy ranked higher, I said more than five and if I had the guy ranked the same, I said five.

[Jamie]

Yeah, I went if you had them in the range of where I haven't ranked, I just said 10.

[Heath]

It's 100 confidence that Jamie's rankings are going to be right?

[Jamie]

No, but that's why I have him going to the season. So why would I not be confident?

[Adam]

Johnny Airport says this game is better than who has more.

[Heath]

Yeah, that was who has more? Who has more confidence in Drake May who has more being QB3.

[Adam]

All right, thanks guys. Great show. And we got FFT Express coming up where we're going to talk about Ryan Wilson's latest mock draft and how we would feel about some of those destinations and we'll, we'll get to that. We'll talk to you tomorrow on Fitness.

[Heath]

See you.

[Jamie]

Paramount Podcast.

[Adam]

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