Eight Facts About AFC Players You Probably Didn't Know (06/03 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today – Episode Summary

"Eight Facts About AFC Players You Probably Didn't Know"

Date: June 3, 2026
Hosts: Adam Aizer, Dave Richard, Heath Cummings, Jamie Eisenberg

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Episode Overview

This episode is all about uncovering interesting, lesser-known insights about AFC fantasy football players for the 2026 season. The FFT crew—Adam, Dave, Heath, and Jamie—shared player outlooks and statistical nuggets they found during their divisional research. Each host brings up unique facts and new context that could tilt your draft strategy or help you spot values in early drafts.

The episode mixes deep player analysis, lively debates, rankings discussion, and some fun banter (and burger talk) at the end. Listeners get an inside look at how the experts assess breakout potential, hidden red flags, and evolving roles around the AFC.

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Key Discussion Points & Player Insights

1. AFC News and Notes

• Marvin Harrison Jr. Injury Update

  • Still recovering from 2025 injuries (mainly heel) but expects no impact for '26.
  • Cards' coach Mike LaFleur said Marvin will play X receiver (like Davante Adams); Michael Wilson as Z (like Puka Nacua).
  • Dave: “Not sure either of these receivers are going to be anywhere close to must-starts as long as both are healthy, in part because it’s Jacoby Brissette at QB.” (04:01)

• Drake London Extension & Yards/Route Split

  • 4 years, $140M extension ($100M guaranteed); no dynasty value change (06:31).
  • London’s yards-per-route-run was almost 3 with Penix at QB, but 1.9 with others.
  • Heath: “The reason I was so happy they acquired Tua… I do think Tua is probably better than Kirk Cousins at this stage… it helps Drake London’s floor.” (06:31)

• A.J. Brown Health Concerns

  • Rams passed on Brown due to knee medicals.
  • Jamie: “Not for 2026… But if it’s a situation where they don’t like what’s happening in three years, in four years, probably a cause for concern.” (08:01)

• Aaron Donald Rumors

  • Hosts discuss Donald’s potential return and debate best defensive players of the era. Not relevant for fantasy, but provides context. (09:15)

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2. Player Outlooks & Deep Dives

Timestamps are from start of player-specific content.

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Josh Downs (WR, IND)

[14:02]

• ADP: WR47
• Heath’s takeaway:
  • Downs led Indy in red-zone chances, surprisingly strong for short-area WR.
  • Only 4 TDs, but “more green zone targets than Alec Pierce.” (16:03)
  • Whenever he plays 70%+ snaps: 12.6 PPR pts/gm career average.
• Jamie adds:
  • “He’s got such a huge opportunity… would not shock me if he’s competing to be a top-24 receiver this year if the touchdowns increase.” (17:16)
• Rankings:
  • Heath: Addison > Downs > Robinson (16:43)
• Memorable quote:
  • “Just the type of player he is... Downs has just got such a huge opportunity here. If the touchdowns increase—like, Josh Downs’ targets and catches should be career highs by maybe a significant margin.” – Jamie (17:16)

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RJ Harvey (RB, DEN)

[19:12]

• ADP: RB30
• Jamie’s view:
  • Needs 1–2 injuries to be fantasy-flex-worthy.
  • Too much competition: “Now you’re chopping it up three ways… If Dobbins goes down, it’s not just RJ Harvey, it’s now Harvey and [Jonah] Coleman.” (19:12)
  • Value too high at RB30—should drop further.
• Comparison:
  • “I’d rather have Jalen Warren, Ramondre Stevenson, probably Rico Dowdle too… Harvey may not be the type of running back you’re drafting at his current cost.” (21:27)

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Trevion Henderson (RB, NE)

[22:03]

• ADP: RB21
• Dave’s breakdown:
  • “He could be one of the best RBs in fantasy, or just as big a bust as last year. If you don’t like risk, you’re probably not going to draft TreVion.” (24:19)
  • Doesn’t out-snap Stevenson except due to injury; NE may pass more now with A.J. Brown.
  • “If you’re drafting Henderson in round 4, you’re expecting him to be the guy right away. Round six is the sweet spot.” – Jamie (28:52)
• Heath’s efficiency stat:
  • Stevenson far outperformed Henderson as a receiver in 2025 (1.34 vs. 0.93 YPRR).
• Rapid consensus (30:16):
  • “We thought Henderson was better coming into the NFL, he was better last year, and there’s not a Jonah Coleman in New England.” – Heath

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Jalen Warren (RB, PIT)

[30:31]

• Role Uncertainty:
  • New coach Mike McCarthy has ties to competitor Rico Dowdle.
  • Adam: “I think Warren can just be a better rusher… but he’s not that safe.” (32:31)
  • Heath: “It could be a hot hand situation all year long.” (33:05)
  • Jamie takes Warren slightly over Dowdle in PPR; expects timeshare, maybe split drives (34:51).
• RB pass-game usage risk:
  • “Over 15 years since McCarthy RBs have had a 20%+ target share.” (35:41)

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Tyler Warren (TE, IND)

[40:10]

• ADP: TE4 (significant gap to TE3, Loveland)
• Heath’s stats:
  • Led Colts in high-value red-zone looks: 19 red-zone targets, 11 inside the 10.
  • Best yards-after-catch/reception among TEs with 100+ targets: “His 6.2 YAC/rec was the best.” (40:10)
  • “He was so great with the best 9-game stretch of Daniel Jones’ life… None of us expect Daniel Jones to be that good again in 2026.” (41:13)
• Target concentration in IND:
  • “Are we too much invested in the Colts?” – Jamie (41:37)

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Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC)

[46:42]

• ADP: WR41
• Jamie’s angle:
  • “He’s a home run hitter… this was a bust in his rookie campaign, but he’s worked his way back.” (46:42)
  • Posted 19.9 PPR pts/gm in first four games with Herbert healthy (48:06).
  • Plenty of opportunity; McConkey likely leads, but Johnston could be second on the team in targets and double-digit TDs possible.
• Consensus:
  • Best-ball: Johnston > Downs. Redraft: Downs > Johnston.
  • “He’s an unbelievable #4 WR to draft on your team… wouldn’t shock me if he’s top-30.” – Jamie (46:42)

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Garrett Wilson (WR, NYJ)

[50:06]

• ADP: WR16, 37th overall
• Dave:
  • “Smith has never led a WR to a PPR average past 15 pts/gm in 6 seasons as a starter… I’m not going to draft him as a top-30 player again.” (50:52)
  • Cools on spike-week ceiling due to volume/efficiency concerns with Geno Smith at QB and more receiving competition.
• Heath:
  • “Four years in, 500+ targets, but 6.9 yards/target for his career… That screams inefficiency.” (52:47)
• Adam’s take:
  • “I think the stats don’t matter and Garrett Wilson’s a lot better than what’s on paper… he was so damn good last year. … Anyone who gets that kind of target volume, even with bad efficiency, has upside.” (58:50, 60:11)
• Draft willingness:
  • “About 35th overall? I’m pretty close to that. In full PPR.” – Dave (60:29)

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DK Metcalf (WR, PIT)

[60:49]

• ADP: WR33, late 70s overall.
• Adam:
  • “I just can’t make an upside case for him… He’s just kind of a name at this point.” (61:01)
• Jamie:
  • “Appropriately priced… I think there’s a chance he can get back to that top-20 range, if the TDs are there, but I just don’t want to take a chance on him for the most part.” (62:04)
• Ceiling:
  • “Jim Carrey and Dumb and Dumber chance.” – Jamie (62:04)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On TreVion Henderson’s role:
  “He could be one of the best running backs in fantasy or as bad a bust as last year. If you don’t like risk, you’re probably not going to draft Trevion Henderson.” – Dave (24:19)

• On DK Metcalf’s potential:
  “It's Jim Carrey in Dumb and Dumber chance...” – Jamie (62:04)

• On Garrett Wilson:
  “Four years, 500+ targets, but 6.9 yards/target… that's like Deontay Johnson, unless there are a bunch of catches.” – Heath (52:47)

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Important Timestamps

• [01:21] Episode start & AFC discussion
• [04:01] Marvin Harrison Jr. news/role
• [06:31] Drake London contract & YPRR splits
• [08:01] AJ Brown medical concerns
• [14:02] Josh Downs, Indy WR outlook (Heath/Jamie)
• [19:12] RJ Harvey vs. depth chart (Jamie)
• [22:03] TreVion Henderson boom/bust (Dave/Heath)
• [30:31] Jalen Warren / Dowdle RB split (Adam/Heath/Jamie)
• [40:10] Tyler Warren TE: red zone usage (Heath)
• [46:42] Quentin Johnston: post-hype sleeper (Jamie)
• [50:06] Garrett Wilson: optimism vs. efficiency (Dave/Heath/Adam)
• [60:49] DK Metcalf: fading name value (Adam/Jamie)

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Expert Rankings and Preferences (Snapshot)

| Player | ADP | Host Sentiment | Preferred Format | Key Risk/Note | |---------------------|---------------|-------------------|-----------------|------------------------------| | Josh Downs | WR47 | Up Arrow | PPR | Scoring opps, red zone work | | RJ Harvey | RB30 | Down Arrow | None | Crowded depth chart | | TreVion Henderson | RB21 | Split | Late Rd risk | Needs Stevenson injury/role | | Jalen Warren | RB (undisclosed) | Cautiously Up | PPR | Dowdle risk, pass game | | Tyler Warren | TE4 | Up Arrow | All | Red zone, YAC | | Quentin Johnston | WR41 | Up in best-ball | Best-ball | Deep threat, TDs | | Garrett Wilson | WR16 | Cautious/Optimist | PPR | Volume vs. efficiency | | DK Metcalf | WR33 | Fading | Only if falls | Little ceiling left |

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Miscellaneous Memorable Moments

• Old School Videogames/Burger Talk:
  • Dave details subbing a burger patty into a salad (64:12). Final minutes are light and playful, little fantasy relevance.

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Summary for Fantasy Listeners

• The crew takes a realistic, often skeptical tone with crowded backfields and ambiguous passing games, cautioning against overdrafting players like RJ Harvey or TreVion Henderson at current ADP.
• Players with previously hidden opportunity spikes (Josh Downs, Tyler Warren) could pay off at their middling ADPs.
• Receivers like Quentin Johnston and even Garrett Wilson have fascinating floors and ceilings if their surrounding circumstances improve.
• For risky picks, wait for camp/preseason clarity on depth chart battles.
• Don’t blindly trust name value (DK Metcalf) or hope for outlier upside—always judge context, competition, and role.

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Quote to Remember:
“He could be one of the best RBs in fantasy or as bad a bust as last year. If you don’t like risk, you’re probably not going to draft TreVion Henderson.” – Dave (24:19)

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Overall Tone:
A mix of sharp analysis, honest skepticism, and fun rapport—keeping it actionable and real for competitive fantasy managers heading into 2026 drafts.

Transcript

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[C]

This is Fantasy Football today from CBS Sports.

[D]

What a play. Can you believe this?

[C]

No, I can't.

[B]

It's time to dominate your fantasy league.

[A]

Off to the races and he stays on his feet. This is gonna go the distance.

[C]

Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.

[A]

The homework assignment was due today. The player outlooks had to write player outlooks for every relevant player in one or two divisions. For the OG is Heathen. Dave and Jamie was two divisions. For me and Dan, it was one division. We're going to share some of our favorite outlooks with you today. On Fantasy Football Today, it's Adam Mazer, Dave Richard, Heath Cummings. We have Jamie Eisenberg joining us shortly. We do have some news items Dave just said. Oh, can I say what you just said off the air?

[B]

What did I say off the air

[A]

about the AFC East?

[B]

Yeah, sure.

[A]

It would. Basically they weren't a lot of interesting players in the AFC East.

[B]

What did I say instead? What did I actually say?

[A]

You had a hard time coming up with, like, interesting players to talk about from your AFC East. Okay.

[B]

And so what did I say in the chat? Read it.

[A]

Oh, in the chat. I don't have anything. I don't see anything.

[B]

AFC east is kind of a lame ass div.

[A]

Oh, you said that in the. In the chat with the fans.

[B]

No, with you, idiot.

[D]

Oh.

[A]

Oh, no. Okay. Sorry. Yes. In our personal. Yes, Google chat, Heath, what about your divisions?

[C]

Oh, I've got the AFC south. So, you know, it's just full of. I mean listen, it doesn't have Josh Allen or the defending AFC champions or Devon Hn. Like what are you talking about, Dave? There's so many great fantasy players in the AFC East.

[A]

I think Dave's upset because all the interesting players in the AFC East Davis talked about a lot and didn't want to repeat a Chan and Waddle. When we write our division outlooks, we do guys who were there the previous year. So Jalen Waddle for Dave and Kenneth Gainwell for me in the, in the AFC north and whatnot. All right, so today the the eight players we're going to discuss are Josh Downs, RJ Harvey, Travion Henderson, Jalen Warren, Tyler Warren, a couple of Warrens, Quentin Johnston, Garrett Wilson and DK Metcalf. All right, news and notes real quick. Marvin Harrison Jr. Says he's still recovering from the injuries he had last year. It seems like the heel is really the one. He had appendicitis, he had two heel injuries and he had a concussion. So he's still getting, you know, his feet under him from the heel injuries, but he does not think it will affect his 2026 season. In other related news, their head coach, Arizona's head coach Mike Leflore said that Marvin Harrison is going to play the X receiver role like Devonte Adams and Michael Wilson's going to be in the Z receiver role like Puka Nakua. So Dave, you know, is that is that a good thing for more for Wilson than than Harrison? What do you think about that? If, if Harrison's playing the Devonte role

[B]

and Wilson the Puka role sounds sounds juicy for Michael Wilson, but who's playing in the Matthew Stafford role? Because I don't think it's going to be anybody as good as Matthew Stafford. LaFleur actually saved me some time because I was going to do a whole deep dive into these receivers and Trey McBride and figure out, well, how could they be utilized based on how the Rams offense has operated over the last three years? La Flores had a big hand in how they've gone about running their offense details and play calling matchups that they've had there. There's a lot to dig into there, but he kind of just simplified it by saying that one's going to play in one spot and another's going to play in the other spot. But the thing that stands out about Puka is he's got a great relationship, he's got great timing with Matthew Stafford. I think there's a lot of option routes between the two of them and that's why Nukua is always so open on those dig routes, those out routes that we see week after week that he comes through on where there's just nobody around him when he catches the ball. And he also catches a lot of tight window throws in traffic from Matthew Stafford. I would lean a little bit toward Michael Wilson being able to catch those traffic throws, but I'm not sure if either one of these wide receivers are going to be anywhere in the universe of Pukinaku or Devonte Adams. In large part because it's Jacoby Brissetta quarterback. It could be Carson Beck at some point. Brissette's not there working with the receivers. Marvin Harrison even talked about that when he met with the media. Long winded answer is that I don't feel like either of these guys are going to be anywhere close to must start fantasy receivers as long as they're both on the field.

[A]

Next news item Drake London and the Falcons agreed on a four year, $140 million contract extension with $100 million guaranteed. This contract extension begins in 2027. Drake London basically scored the same amount of points per game two straight seasons, 16.5 and 16.8. But one year he was wide receiver 14 per game and then last year he was wide receiver 8 per game. Heath couple things over the last two years. What's a good yard per out run rate? You know, anything over 2 is is good. Anything approaching 3 is incredible yards per out run. Over the last two seasons, Drake London has been at basically 3 yards per out run with Michael Penix Jr. And basically 1.9 yards per outrun with anyone else. Does that matter to you? And from a dynasty standpoint, how do you treat do you change anything with a guy who just signs a long term extension?

[C]

Not with a guy like Drake London who we had no doubt about his ability to earn this type of contract. This is just one where we knew it was going to happen at some point. It happened great. But no, I'm not going to change his dynasty evaluation. I maybe the Michael Pinnock's thing would bother you just a little bit if you're worried they're gonna play tua. But I think I that's the reason I was so happy that they acquired Tua was because Pinnock isn't healthy. Pinnocks has had a hard time staying healthy and I don't think Pinnocks is better than tua. So I I do think TUA is probably better than Kirk Cousins at this stage of their career. And so I think that it Helps Drake London's floor. Maybe there will be two quarterbacks that he averages close to three yards per out run with.

[A]

Oh, that'd be nice. Jamie Eisenberg is here. Jamie, Our next news item is about A.J. brown. Jeff McLean of the Philadelphia Inquirer was on a podcast and he said the Rams were interested in Brown, but they did not. They weren't satisfied with his medicals and that he said that Brown's knee was part of the reason why the Eagles didn't get more for Brown. They got a fifth round pick in this upcoming draft in 2027 and a first rounder in 2028, I believe so. P.S. makai Lemon, by the way, the rookie wide receiver has a hamstring injury. That's another news item. But this, this update on AJ Brown from a beat writer saying that his medicals were a factor for the Rams and maybe why the Eagles didn't get more. Does that make you hesitant with A.J.

[D]

brown? Not for 2026, but probably more of a dynasty conversation than a redraft conversation. So I think if you're looking at it, we already had one trade this offseason, whether you believe it or not, was overturned because the medicals weren't good on Max Crosby. And so I'm guessing if he was able to pass his physical, he played the majority of the season last year. He obviously still fetched a pretty good reward in return. Maybe not what the Eagles were hoping for, but still good enough that, you know, they can have some pretty significant draft compensation for, you know, a player I think that could still produce at, at a high level for at least one, maybe two years. So if it's a situation where they don't like what's happening in three years, in four years, probably a cause for concern, but really, I think if you're just looking at it, 2026, I think he's going to have an opportunity to play at a high level.

[A]

Okay. And, and McLean also said the Eagles were maybe concerned about how A.J. brown would, would age with that knee injury. So that kind of speaks to what you're saying. Jonathan Brooks is not participating in team reps yet. Aaron Donald could, it wouldn't really be fair if Aaron Donald came out of retirement, but he could do that for the Rams.

[D]

And I think it's, it's Aaron Donald. It's, it's one of the receivers that are out there, Stefan Diggs, Tyree, kill one of these guys. Like, I mean, it just makes sense at this point. Go get what you can get. But Donald coming back to the Rams is probably gonna happen.

[A]

I would say Aaron Donald is the best defensive player that I've ever seen. Maybe Miles Garrett. And I'm not counting Lawrence Taylor because I didn't really see Lawrence Taylor. But Aaron Donald's for me is that guy the. My. My kids asked me, hey, dad, who was the best defensive player you ever saw? I would say it was Aaron Donald.

[D]

It's a pretty good name to throw out there.

[A]

How about you guys? Seow Reggie White. Like you guys were a little, you know, get the more of the 90s.

[B]

Sal was up there, man. I mean, Taylor, he had some monster years. Taylor was a great one. J.J. watt was a problem every single week. Ed Reed. How could I not say Ed Reed,

[D]

for crying out loud? Sean Taylor.

[B]

Sean Taylor was great too. I. I love Sean, but I don't know if he necessarily makes the list. Donald is up there. There's no doubt, man. He was just so, so tough to deal with play after play, week after week. It was really hard to shut him down.

[A]

Yeah, well, to be a pass rusher like that in the interior of the defensive line was pretty, pretty rare.

[D]

Back for that stretch too.

[A]

Yeah. Hey, Dave. Dave said what? Jjy, right? Yeah, he was amazing. And Caleb Williams is on the Madden cover, so you all can freak out.

[C]

That's. That's too bad.

[A]

And yeah, we'll see if maybe Dan Schneier wrote the AFC north or the NFC north outlook. So maybe he'll change Caleb Williams outlook now. And two big things.

[D]

How would Dan describe Caleb Williams?

[B]

We don't have enough time for that. It would be eight minutes.

[D]

Adam, what do you think? How would it go?

[A]

How would he describe Caleb Williams? Yeah, I watched the tape of Caleb Williams. I'm a big fan of Caleb Williams. And let me tell you why. It's really more of a ski. I don't know. I don't know where I'm going with this.

[B]

He actually wrote, I'm reading it right now. It's actually a short outlook. Like, I'm the one that writes the long outlooks. When you see those on CBS Sports. It's my fault. Dan wrote a nice, short, tight Caleb Williams outlook.

[A]

I asked Dave for help with one of my outlooks, and he's like, let me see if I can shorten it. And he sent something back that was like three sentences longer.

[B]

Guilty.

[A]

I'm gonna read it today. And two big. Or reading. I mean, whatever you want to do. I'm gonna read mine verbatim. You can do whatever you want. I'll Read it.

[B]

I like that idea.

[A]

I'll dramatically present it. Two big things happening today. 1. I'm getting a haircut. I apologize for looking. Look at, look at me. Oh my gosh. I look ridiculous getting a haircut today. And two first of four games that the Knicks will win as they sweep the spurs in the NBA Finals.

[D]

Wow. Now it's a sweep.

[A]

Yeah, it's just get they're going to win in three somehow. And you can follow all of it on CBS Sports hq. What a time to be a sports fan. Game one of the Stanley cup last night was. Stanley Cup Finals was awesome. You've got all you got baseball in full swing. You've got the NBA Finals. You got a lot to look forward to in the sports world. So watch CBS Sports hq. It's on the CBS Sports app and it's really phenomenal sports coverage. We'll be right back with our player outlooks whether we're reading them verbatim or not on Fantasy football today.

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[A]

Okay, we're going to start With Josh Downs written by Heath Cummings. He. Josh Downs was wide receiver 47. Oh, sorry. He is currently in fantasy pros ADP. Wide receiver 47, 103rd overall. But that's in between Jordan Addison and Wondale Robinson in current fantasy pros PPR adp. What do you have to say about Josh Downs?

[C]

Yeah, I'm not reading one. I think the, the first thing that got me a little bit more excited about Josh Downs, it was actually kind of surprising and I'm going to just give part of my Tyler Warren's stats also. But you look at the receiving touchdowns for the Colts last year. It was Alec Pier or Michael Pitman and Alec Pierce at the top downs and Warren only scored four touchdowns. The strange thing was they were by far and away the leaders on the team in red zone targets. Red zone targets. Last year, Warren had 19, Downs had 14, Pitman had 12 and led the team in touchdowns with seven and Alec Pierce had eight. I had kind of viewed Josh Downs more like the Zay Flowers type guy who's probably not going to get a lot of touchdown opportunities. And it made me more optimistic about his touchdown potential. I talked about this a lot that his adot was much more similar to Michael Pittman's the last couple of years than Alec Pierce's. So I think that it gives him more target opportunity. And I think we've given this stat like 7 different ways depending on the percentage you want to use. But what I chose was there's 6, 13 games in his career where he's played at least 70 of the snaps. Average 12.6 PPR fantasy points per game.

[A]

Yeah. And you'd certainly take that 100th overall right around there. He's going 98th overall in CBS early average draft position. Heath, red zone targets pretty good. But five green zone, three end zone targets. Does that put a damper on the red zone stat?

[C]

It was still more green zone targets than Alec Pierce.

[D]

Yeah.

[A]

Wow. I guess it's not a huge surprise, right? Everything you can't, you can't. You can't catch a pass from 10 yards in. When you're, when you're Alec Price.

[C]

And just like I know I'm not supposed to be doing Kyler Warren right now, But Warren had 11 targets inside the 10 yard line.

[D]

Wow.

[C]

I guess that's the reason.

[A]

Yeah, that's.

[C]

Well, it's not surprising, except it's surprising that he scored four touchdowns last year.

[A]

Oh, Tyler Warren did.

[C]

Yes. Receiving.

[A]

Okay, cool. So. So Josh Downs, I gave you those names. Jordan Addison and Wondale Robinson, how would you rank those three?

[C]

Heath, Addison Downs, Robinson.

[A]

Okay, that's the way ADP has it on fantasy pros. Jamie, your thoughts on Josh Downs. I know I feel like someone you like a lot, too.

[D]

I do like him a lot. I would take him significantly higher than the other two guys I. Addison and Robinson. I think just looking at the opportunity that he's stepping into, It's. It's amazing. 2024, as Heath referenced, you know, when he's gotten targets, when he's gotten playing time, when he's been involved in the offense, he's been fairly productive as a. As a fantasy receiver. There was a. I forget who it was, but there was a Colts podcast recently where one of the beat writers suggested it's going to be Downs or Warren didn't even mention Alec Pierce leading the team in targets and receptions. So, you know, the. The big contract that he just got makes sense. Just the type of player that he is. But Downs has just got such a huge opportunity here, hopefully stays healthy. It wouldn't shock me if, if he's competing to be a top 24 receiver this year. You know, just the. If the touchdowns increase like Josh Downs targets and catches should be career highs by maybe a significant margin.

[B]

Where did he finish in 2024? Adam? I know how many he 13.1 PPR points per game, 7.6 targets per game. Where did that place him in 24

[A]

on a per game basis? He was wide receiver 32, 31.

[C]

That was before the wide receiver market crash though, right?

[B]

And then the. That's a great way to put it. So the receiver market crashed in 2025. Where would 13.1 have been in 25?

[A]

Probably top 20. Let's see, 13.1 would have been 20. Michael Wilson had averaged 13 fantasy points per game. He was wide receiver 20.

[B]

Lordy.

[A]

Yeah. Okay, Josh Downs has a good opportunity and I mentioned this last month, but Josh downs has averaged 10.8 yards per catch in his first three seasons. Jackson, Smith and Jigga in Jigba average 10.8 yards per catch in his first two seasons. They averaged about the same amount of yards per target. They both were primarily slot receivers. Can we move Josh Downs outside a little bit more? And he will be the next JSN. He will win you your league. I guarantee it. Nixon 4. Next up is RJ Harvey. RJ Harvey is a Jamie Eisenberg player. Outlook. Jamie had the AFC west currently in average draft position. Harvey is RB30, 79th overall in between Ramondre Stevenson and Tony Pollard. Jamie, thoughts on RJ Harvey.

[D]

I mean, I think he needs an injury or maybe two at this point to be a fantasy starter and maybe even a flex. It's. It was bad last year when J.K. dobbins was healthy. In the first 10 games, when Dobbins was on the field, it was 9.9 PPR points per game was his average. He exploded after that when Dobbin's foot was injured and missed the rest of the season. And you saw that he was a very good fantasy option, but it took a lot of touchdowns and he was involved in the passing game. He still was not a very good rusher, and that's something that's a problem. So, you know, the fact that they drafted Jonah Coleman is going to be, I think, a big issue on two accounts. One, when everybody's healthy now, you're chopping it up three ways, most likely based on what you heard from the draft and what seems to be the case, you know, in the early part of the off season. The second part of this is we know J.K. dobbins has a very bad injury track record. Well, now if Dobbins goes down, it's not just RJ Harvey, it's now Harvey and Coleman. So the potential of, okay, here's a lottery ticket because we saw it last year, and if Dobbins missed his time, it's all of Harvey's, or Harvey gets all of that work or the majority of that work. I don't know if that's the case right now. So when you look at it, you say RB30. You know, at one point post draft, he was still going 23, 24, 25 in that range. Like, I'm glad it's starting to fall. I hope it continues to fall a little bit more. I think at some point it'll become a good value because if he does hit and he does get those receptions and he does, you know, get an opportunity, if Dobbins misses time, then you're talking about a good value pick. But where he's going right now still is too high for me. I'm a little bit concerned just about how this all is going to work, especially when they add another pass catcher in Jalen Waddle will make the passing game a little bit better. I know they're not going to throw the ball more because they were top five in past attempts. That doesn't really change things, but how the targets are distributed could be changed. And maybe Harvey doesn't get as many opportunities as we saw in the second half of the season or even in the Beginning part of the year when that's really where he was making his production, was catching the ball. So wasn't the full time third down back even to begin with? I think we're just looking at a guy that could be in a, in a very bad role. Even though he's on what I think is still good offense, he may not be the type of running back that you're drafting when some of the other guys around him. Just looking at the list, you know, that you have on the screen here, I'm assuming this is CBS Sports adp. Yeah, I'd rather have Jalen Warren. I'd rather have Ramandre Stevenson. I think I'd rather have Rico Doddle too. Just with the opportunity of what he could be in Pittsburgh's offense by comparison to what RJ Harvey is right now in Denver's offense.

[A]

Yeah, and Dave, I think we can lump RJ Harvey in with the guy that you wanted to talk about, Travion Henderson, who's actually going a lot earlier than RJ Harvey. Trayvon Henderson is RB21 overall in fantasy pros ADP, 51st overall. So that's 21 picks and seven running backs ahead of RJ Harvey. Henderson's going in between David Montgomery and Bucky Irving. So, you know, Jamie gives a pretty pessimistic outlook of RJ Harvey, which totally makes sense. Do you give an optimistic or pessimist? I think you actually give kind of a both in your player outlook. Both sides of the coin for Travion Anderson.

[B]

So how do you like to draft? Do you like to draft based on talent or do you like to draft based on opportunity? And if it's talent, Trayvon Henderson is going to be somebody that you're taking before round five ends, if not round four. Because when we've seen it from him, and it was in flashes as a rookie, certainly a lot more when he was in college. The dude's fast, he can catch. He's. He's absolutely elusive. He's. He's what you're looking for from an NFL running back. And he's playing in one of the better offenses in the National Football League. But, but the opportunities evaded him. Last year. It was only when Ramandre Stevenson was hurt, when he averaged huge fantasy numbers, I mean, north of 20 PPR points per game. But with Ramanre Stevenson on the field, it, it was down to single digits. It wasn't good at all. And it's, it's, it's tough to look at Trayvon Henderson and say, hey, he's just it's going to be a second year, he's going to be better. You've got nothing to worry about. He'll unseat Raman Ray Stevenson. Ramondre is a little bit better than, you know, your average NFL running back anyway. That's an argument that can be made, but we, we clearly saw last year when Ramandre played. Coaching staff trusted him a lot. And if they're doing that, that limits the opportunities for Travion Henderson. Now throw on top of it that they just got A.J. brown and if they got A.J. brown, yeah, that helps in terms of lightning boxes, defense is going to have to respect the pass. You know, they're not worried about getting beat by Kon Booty Downfield or Stefan Diggs anymore. Now they really got a legit worry about AJ Brown and to an extent, Romeo Dobbs too. It's, it's an upgraded passing game, but the Patriots figure to lean into that. They've got the quarterback to do it and that could take away opportunities from both Stevenson and Anderson. So I, I'm trying to not be too excited about Henderson. If I can get him round four, round five, I'll be okay with it. But I also know that I have to commit a couple of picks after that. Not directly after that, but within, let's call it, you know, picks 51 through 99 to at least a couple of other running backs in case it's a year just like last year. Bottom line is he could be one of the best running backs in fantasy or it can be just as bad of a bus as he was the year before. If you don't like taking risks, you're probably not going to draft Trayvon Henderson.

[C]

The thing that really bothered me about Henderson last year was like I think we were a little unsure how how much of the rush work he would take from Andre Stevenson and how long it would take for that to happen. But we were so excited about him as a pass catcher. And it wasn't just that Stevenson got so many more opportunities than he did. Stevenson averaged 1.34 yards per route run. Henderson was 0.93, which was 33rd amongst 43 running backs with at least 30 targets last year. So Stevenson averaged 9.3 yards per target. Henderson was 5.3. Like I it's hard to make an argument that they should have given Henderson more work in the passing game than Stevenson because Stevenson was just awesome at

[D]

it

[C]

and he'd been his really bad for most of his career. But last year he was very good in the Passing game.

[A]

Right. But wouldn't you expect him to be more like his career norms than.

[C]

Yes, but I would have expected Henderson to be much better than he was.

[A]

I just don't get, I mean, so he's going 60 sec, Trayvon Henderson going 62nd on CBS.

[B]

That's awesome.

[A]

Fantasy Pro, is it? I mean 54, it's a lot better than 51st to be able to wait around.

[D]

If you're taking him at 51st overall, you're making a huge mistake.

[A]

All right. I mean I, I think you could. A lot has to happen for him to even justify 60 seconds.

[D]

Exactly.

[A]

If you look at the games that both Stevenson and Henderson played, I've got 188 carries for Stevenson, 163 carries for Travion Henderson.

[C]

And how many games?

[A]

A lot of games. Is it? I'm including the playoffs.

[B]

Okay.

[D]

Only missed two games.

[A]

Yeah. So it's, it's most of the season and including four postseason games and then the catches. So it's what is. I don't know.

[D]

The postseason was wild. Like Henderson was barely playing in the post.

[A]

About 25 more carries and 17 and 19 more catches for Andre Stevenson. Now I think you guys probably brought this up throughout the year last year, but correct me if I'm wrong, but Josh McDaniel's offenses are very hard for rookie running backs, if I'm not mistaken.

[B]

Yes, Damien Harris told me that it was right.

[A]

Damien Harris told you that? And, and Henderson, definitely. I think there was an adjustment and learning curve and I think he'll, you know, he'll be better in that regard of knowing the offense better. And in his second year he, he's,

[D]

listen, he's the type of player that you're hoping can be a flex when Stevenson is healthy and is a league winner. If Stevenson misses time like that's what you're hoping for.

[A]

Yeah.

[D]

Because unless there's just a dramatic change, I don't think you're seeing Stevenson just get benched or get taken off the field for that much of a difference in playing time. Like Henderson only out snapped him in two games last season. And I'm guessing that probably had to do with either game floor or injury because it was around the time when Stevenson was missing time. So how much of that is going to change? Look, you know me, I was as excited about anybody as Henderson last year. I would say take him around 3 like I thought he's going to be the guy and be this, you know, difference making player and he's shown that best Dave illustrate, you know, he's showing that ability. So I think when you're drafting you just got to understand like am I taking somebody that I have to wait for the injury or am I taking somebody that's going to outplay the competition? And again, skill set wise and just eyeball test you see Trevion Henderson could do a lot more than Ramon Dre Stevenson. Mike Vrabel's an old school coach. Josh McDaniels May has maybe has to make him earn his keep and, and and learn the offense to an extent where they feel so comfortable with him that that was part of the, the argument for Henderson last year is that we've seen guys in just the past catching role for Josh McDaniels be very fantasy relevant. James White for example, you know where he was never a full time guy and he was still a flex. Borderline number two running back. Henderson just based on his skill set looked like oh my God, he could be much better than James White maybe ever was except for that super bowl performance. But I think you're just looking at it as the hope would be is if you're drafting Trevan Henderson in round four, you're expecting him to be the guy right away. And I just don't think that's the case in round five. You're kind of hopeful. Round six I think is kind of the sweet spot for him. You know, if you're getting him in that range where okay, I think If I'm getting 11.3 PPR points per game, if that was his number last year, then I'm taking him as a flex and I can live with that knowing that if Stevenson misses time, I have a potential top 10 guy on my hands. And so that's, I think the, the at least that's the approach for me is I'm not reaching for him in round four or round five. I'm taking him in round six if he's still there.

[B]

And I like the idea, I'm sorry Adam. I like the idea of considering him in round five and even early round five if I love my first four picks and that would mean that I'm picking close to I'm in slot one, slot two, slot three. I've got, already got a superstar from in round one. Say I say I have the 101 and I've got Gibbs and I come back in rounds two and three and I nail it. Two awesome pass catchers and round four somebody slips it at best player available. I can't believe it. That's when I might kind of have that Mentality of going for broken and saying, all right, I've got four studs on my team already. Let's take the chance with Travion Henderson and see if he can hit that home run more often than he did last year in his second season. And one last thing, we're talking about him right now. It's June 3rd, if it's August 3rd and there are reports just about him glowing in camp, you know, his ADP is going to go up a lot. He'll go right back up to being like in that round four range. And I don't know if it'll be too rich for my blood at that point. Based on what we're hearing and based on how he may have improved, what have we learned? That kind of stuff is going to be impactful in August.

[A]

Okay. All right guys, give me just like 10 to 15 seconds from each of you. We'll go. Heath, Jamie, Dave. Why is Travion Henderson a better pick than RJ Harvey? There are obviously similarities in their situations. Why is Travion Henderson a better pick than RJ Harvey? 10 to 15 seconds. Heath.

[C]

We thought Henderson was better coming into the NFL. Henderson by a lot of metrics was better last year than Harvey. And there's not a Jonah Coleman in New England.

[A]

Does that suffice for everyone?

[D]

Less competition?

[B]

Pretty much.

[C]

Okay.

[A]

All right. I want to talk about Jalen Warren. I wrote the outlook on him and then I sent it to Dave and then Dave sent it back to me. Two or three sentences longer but very, very good because I think, I think he's one of the toughest players to project right now with Jalen Warren. You just don't know who's going to have which role. In Pittsburgh. Both he and Rico Dowdle have been the lead running backs for their teams. Dowdle more so. Both he and Rico Dowdle have been the third down backs for their team. And Dave likes to talk about how Mike McCarthy, the new head coach has a history with Rico Dowdle. And Dowdles had two good seasons, you know, in a row. Not great, but good. So my thought on Warren was he's a. He's around six or seven pick in a 12 team league in full PPR, probably round eight or so in non PPR. I think he's going to be their third down back at least more so than Rico Dowdle. That's, you know, and, and Kenneth Gainwell was their third down back last year and he had 73 catches. Not all, obviously not all of them were on third down. He played plenty on first and second down. But that's the role that I think is super valuable for the Pittsburgh Steelers, because Aaron Rodgers, at this point in his career, he gets rid of the ball as quickly as just about any quarterback. He had the lowest adot in the NFL last year. He loves to throw to his running backs. He has a great history throughout his career of throwing to his running backs. That's the role that you need in Pittsburgh. My bet is on Jalen Warren. I'm also not a huge Dowdle guy. I look at his production each of the last two years, and he really beat up on these really terrible run defenses and then kind of fizzled out against the, you know, average or better ones. So I think Warren can just be a better rusher than him. I am kind of bullish on Jalen Warren, but I just want to bring up that he's not that safe. He really could lose a lot of work in both areas to Rico Dowdle. And this is, this is a team, Heath, where I think we have to pay attention to the reports to training camp, to preseason and see how it looks.

[C]

Yeah, I think I would probably be like, I've got it kind of as a coin flip right now. I'd probably be closer to where you are if it wasn't for the fact that the new head coach signs the running back who was on his team before and has the experience with Dowdle. And Dowdle has been really involved in the passing game last couple of years when he's been out on the field. So I, I think, yes, watch the training camp reports. But also, this could be a hot hand situation all year long.

[A]

That's true. Jamie, any thoughts on Jalen Warren slash Rico Dowdle, who should go first, in which format?

[D]

I take Warren first just because I think he'll be more involved in the passing game. But I agree with Heath. I think it's a coin toss. I think it's kind of similar to the Patriots that both guys are going to get touches and, you know, could be a week to week thing. Clearly, the Patriot situation, one guy has more upside if he ever gets to work. I don't think that's the case here, but you have to, you know, lean toward the, the history between dowdle and. And McCarthy and the fact that, you know, they lose Gainwell and this is one of the first signings that they had in McCarthy's tenure, you know, so he's comfortable with Rico Dowell. I think you're right, Adam. You know, last year in particular, he beats up on the Dolphins and The Cowboys, you know, and takes advantage of those two defenses when they're at their worst. And so, you know, he's, he's got that opportunity to have some really big spike games, but clearly some down games. And so yes, who's going to be in the past catching role is going to really matter here because of Aaron Rodgers. But wouldn't be surprised if they're both getting, you know, as we saw in, in Los Angeles last year down the stretch with the Rams, they're splitting drives. Same thing in Chicago where they're splitting drives, you know, or every other drive. It's, it's the other guy. And then, you know, does one guy have the goal line roll? Does one guy have the passing downs rollers? Just whoever's on the field at that moment. So they're kind of interchangeable. They can both do, I think, each role and probably have success in each role. The wild card and all this is. Does Caleb Johnson get opportunities? I think we'd all say based on what we saw last year, probably not. But he was getting some first team reps and OTAs already. So, you know, maybe they want to see if he can bounce back from that crappy rookie season. Then we're looking at three guys in the mix. But I think if you're just talking about the top two guys, it might just be. If you want a piece of this backfilled, wait to see who's still on the board. When you're up, let somebody else take the first one, whether that's Warren or Daddle. Again, for me, I would take Warren first.

[A]

They also have a running back on their roster who had 70, who had 51 catches for 941 yards last year. That's the Navy running back Eli Heidenreich, who the Steelers took at the seventh round. He probably won't matter, but he's a pretty unique guy.

[D]

I wonder if, and Dave probably is the one that answers if. If we're going to change his eligibility to both positions because the Steelers are listing him at both positions.

[B]

If the Steelers are listing him at both positions, then we should do.

[A]

Interesting. That's Eli Heidenreich, which might matter for Dynasty, although it doesn't mean that the Steelers could change it no next year and he could lose the eligibility.

[B]

But he also might not be a Steeler next year.

[A]

Oh, he might be in the Navy.

[B]

He. I don't know.

[A]

Yeah, okay. Well, that's Jalen.

[B]

I'm suggesting that he might not be in the national football league.

[A]

1.

[B]

One little point just to put a bow on this conversation, it's been over 15 years since running backs under Mike McCarthy have had a target share of at least 20%.

[A]

I mentioned that yesterday. He's, he's his teams at least in Dallas. I didn't look at Green Bay, but his teams in Dallas had never been everywhere. Never been higher than 18th in running back target rate which is interesting but that's like immovable object versus unstoppable force because Aaron Rodgers just always throws his running backs late.

[B]

So if the, if the routes that are in the playbook now and remember it's a different playbook, it's Mike McCarthy's playbook, it means there's going to be a of in breaking come back to the quarterback type routes and they got Michael Pittman specifically for some of those routes and and rookie Jeremy Bernard can do that too. That theoretically will take target volume away from whoever is at running back. I'm still taking Warren first in full ppr but half and non give me dowdle who has a better rate of success inside the five I think over the last two years than Jaylen Warren. It's in, it's in his outlook.

[C]

It is funny because if, if you look at Aaron Jones, I think he played his first two years with Aaron Rodgers with McCarthy as the coach and then McCarthy left in 2019 and Aaron Jones became the big pass catching guy.

[A]

Interesting. All right, well, we'll be right back.

[C]

He was not when McCarthy was there.

[A]

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[A]

Went to a restaurant yesterday that had the NFL Network on and it was classic Aaron Rodgers peak. Aaron Rodgers vs. Ben Roethlisberger, Packers, Steelers game in Pittsburgh. And it was. Those two guys were just playing quarterback at a ridiculous level. Was really cool to watch. Of course, I would have rather have watched, you know, a live game like the Yankees game or the Stanley cup finals, but they had the. They had the Steelers, Steelers, packers from sometime in the last 15, 20 years on. It's good stuff.

[B]

You could have asked them to change the channel.

[A]

I did and they didn't do it. They had. There were eight TVs that I could see. Eight TVs and not one of them had a live event on. We had that game. We had a Duke, Louisville basketball game. I believe I told you.

[C]

This happened to me in South Carolina when the ncaa. The first day of March Madness.

[A]

They didn't have a March Madness game on.

[C]

They did not have a March Madness game.

[D]

I mean, come on.

[A]

They had a. Yes. Last night. They had a Mets game from two years ago on, like, put a live Stanley cup on, dude. Come on.

[D]

I was at. I was at Flanagan's over the weekend after baseball tournament, whatever. It was game something. I remember where we were. I think it was. Our tournament was done. And I'm sitting with one of my buddies and he's facing the bar TVs and he's like. He keeps commenting on the Dodgers and he was like, yeah, they're this whatever. And then it was like maybe an hour in and he's like, I cannot believe what I just have been doing. I've been watching the 2025 playoffs.

[A]

It's easy to get tricked. Wait, Heath. So did they. Did they rectify this mistake and put the games on?

[C]

They. They were unable to resolve it by the time that I finished my first refreshment. And so we found another establishment.

[A]

Ridiculous. All right, Heath, you talked about Josh Downs. You also wanted to discuss Tyler Warren, who is currently in fantasy pros ADP. He's currently tight end four, but he's 21 picks after Colston Loveland, who's tight end three. Loved One's going 42nd. Tyler Warren, 64th. I like that. Do you like that?

[B]

I'm.

[C]

I'm starting to like it more. I had Tyler Warren write about where ADP was, and I was really struggling with him. And pits and Leaporto. We talked earlier about his role of 19 red zone targets and 11 targets inside the 10 yard line. He was also averaging over 13 fantasy points per game before Daniel Jones got hurt. His like Josh Downs his adot much more similar to Michael Pittman than Alec Pierce's. So he could get a little bit of a target boost from that. And he actually led all of amongst tight ends who saw 100 targets last year. His 6.2 yards after catch per reception was the best.

[A]

Okay, this is a guy who was just horrible after the Daniel Jones injury.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

And really hurt his numbers. Let's see the last five games he had 133 yards and no touchdowns.

[C]

I, I think we probably should not hold that against him at all. That my only hesitation still is like he was so great with the best nine game stretch of Daniel Jones life. None of us expect Daniel Jones to be that good again in 2026. So what does that mean for Warren?

[D]

Well, I mean to be fair, Daniel Jones, it was finally a good team.

[A]

No, hey,

[B]

the record says he was.

[A]

Well, it's kind of true. But also there was that one year with Dable where they were good.

[C]

Jones made the playoffs.

[D]

And I think it's interesting what you said there Heath because like we have Daniel Jones coming off an Achilles injury. You know, it's. I'm also look, should they have gone to, to Riley Leonard right away because he looked much better than Philip Rivers at the end of the season. And is it Riley Leonard? I think it's going to be Riley Leonard but like could it be Anthony Richardson? So you know, what do they do if, if Daniel Jones isn't ready or Daniel Jones gets hurt. Hurt again. So like tying in Josh Downs Because I'm excited about Josh Downs. I think Tyler Warren's the top four tight end. You know I, I think a lot of us are excited about Alex Pierce. Like just looking at the Colts like what happens if it's not Daniel Jones? Or as you just said, he's appropriately the best of Daniel Jones and we're talking about crappy quarterback play across the board. So like are we too much invested in the Colts? The thing I love about the Colts and I think it's a great call of, of Warren and Downs. Like there's so many and Pierce is like it's just concentrated targets. Like yeah, they're. We can name it but can our audience name without looking up who the fourth pass catcher is or most likely fourth path cat. I guess John Taylor but non running back. Like who the fourth pass catcher is going to be?

[C]

Well, I, no, I don't think, I don't think you and I know who the fourth pass catcher is going to be.

[D]

Probably Westbrook, Akini. But like, like who else? Who else they have?

[B]

I like their rookie, Dion Burks.

[D]

Yeah, it could be him.

[B]

It's enough. It's an uphill climb for him to be fourth and they like Ashton Doolin.

[C]

Before I knew the way Adam was structuring this show, I just kind of made some notes about like one stat about several of the players. And one of the things is kind of related to what Jamie was talking about. Jonathan Taylor last year had a 68 route share. He'd never been over 50 in his career. So I, I do think he's fourth and I do think that's part of the case that if he continues to have the increased role in the passing game, it's part of the case for why he's maybe a little underdrafted in some of our drafts at the very back of round one.

[A]

It's, it's amazing when you write these outlooks and have to spend time on these players, there are just stats that you're, oh, I had no idea. I didn't know that that stat existed about this guy. And it's kind of cool to uncover these things. I don't know what the process was for you, Heath, when you saw that Jonathan Taylor had this route participation rate that he had never had before. I did, I didn't know that all year last year. Now he was.

[C]

Well, I, I think it gave me because I was, I think already just a little maybe like we all probably have Taylor about the same place amongst the running backs. I think I was drafting him ahead of the few of the wide receivers. But I do think, like we have no question about whether Jonathan Taylor is going to be awesome rushing the football. The big question with him was he saw 55 targets last year and he had 20 to 40 the three years before then.

[A]

Right.

[C]

I'm more hopeful, especially with Pittman gone, that he, he could maintain that target share from last year.

[A]

Okay, let's. Last question on Tyler Warren. 64th overall on fantasy pros, but 52nd overall on CBS. Would anybody be willing to take Tyler Warren 52nd overall?

[D]

I'm right there in that range. I think it depends on, you know, how quickly the other three guys were

[C]

off the board in between those two.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

And compare him to Travion, where when we talked about Travion, at least I thought that he's one of these crazy high upside players. Terrible floor. I think Warren might be the pivot. If you're risk averse and you Want somebody who. Yes, there's risk. We talked about it with Daniel Jones coming back from the Achilles and, And all that stuff. But Warren really proved to be a good pass catcher. Good work after the catch. Maybe sees an even bigger uptick in touchdowns. I, I think he's a safer pick than somebody like Travion Henderson, who just has so many different ways that he could go.

[A]

Last stat here. Tyler Warren had the fourth most screen pass targets among tight ends. Behind, behind, believe it or not. Trey McBride 1. Chigo Conquo 2. John who Smith 3. Tyler Warren 4th. 4th most screen pass targets. He had 13. Colson Loveland had 0. 0 screen pass targets last year for Colson Loveland. All right, next player is Quentin Johnston. Quentin Johnston is wide receiver 41. He's. He's a little bit ahead of Josh Downs, who we talked about earlier. Downs is wide receiver 47 and ADP Quentin Johnson, fantasy pros. ADP is wide receiver 41. That's 96th overall. It's between Chris Godwin and Jaden Reed. This is Jamie's dude. Jamie, what do you think about Quentin Johnson, Jamie's dude, in terms. In terms of he wrote the outlooks for the AFC West. What do you think about Quentin Johnston?

[D]

I think in Best Ball, I'd rather have Quentin Johnson than Josh Downs, but in Redraft, I'd rather have Josh Downs. But look, Quentin Johnson is a home run hitter, as we've seen, and clearly they like him much more, I think so, than the fantasy community. Maybe we're starting to come around on him, or at least the people drafting are. But look, this was a bust in his rookie campaign and he's worked his way back to the fact where they picked up his fifth year option. I don't think anybody would have thought that after what we saw in the beginning part of his career. But it's back to back years with eight touchdowns. Really the thing for me that I'm excited about is, and I hope it remains the same, that we don't get a Keenan Allen signing or somebody else joining the roster is. I think we're gonna see him on the field a lot. And Mike McDaniel seems to like him very much. You know, comparing him to guys that he's coached in the past. Now it's obviously hyperbole to say that he's Andre Johnson and Julio Jones, but big physical receiver who can make plays. My favorite stat for him is what he did in the first four games of the season when Joel was healthy and it was 19.9 PPR points per game in that span. So that tells me when Justin Herbert had time to throw, he was connecting with Quentin Johnston and I think that will be the case. I think he said at one point, you wouldn't be surprised if he's in the same target range as lad McConkey. Just given what McConkey showed last year and the step back that he took, I expect McConkey to lead the team targets, but I think Johnston will be second. So they added David Najoku. We'll see how much the tight ends play a role here. Obviously Mike McDaniel has done great things with his tight ends, he's done great things with his running backs. But I think Quentin Johnson is going to get an opportunity to be a significant playmaker for them and may lead the team in touchdowns and he may get a double digit touchdown season out of him. So I think just where he's going is great value. I think he's an unbelievable number four receiver to draft on your team. Would not shock me though, if he's pushing to be in the top 30 if the touchdowns are there, which I think is the thing is going to put him over the top.

[A]

Okay. If anybody want to add anything, it was pretty good. Quentin Johnston.

[C]

Yeah, very good. I like him a little more than his ADP guys.

[B]

Jamie, is he the Charger you're drafting the most?

[D]

No, it's probably Herbert in terms of the drafts I've done so far. But as I said, I almost leave every draft with, with at least Charger. I, I think they're just, you know, where you can get them. It's easy to, to gravitate toward them. You know, Hampton's early, McConkey sort of the beginning of the middle. Herbert and Johnston are, I think appropriately priced. And then if you want to take a chance on, on one of the tight ends or obviously one of the backup running backs. But I'm just excited about this offense, really. It comes down to can their, can their offensive line stay healthy? Because that was such a big part of just one guy being there. Joe Alt being there was such a big difference maker for Justin Herbert. Again difference maker for Quentin Johnston. And now you're getting Rashawn Slater back who might be their best offensive line. So, you know, they, they completely changed their middle center and two guards are going to be different from a year ago, but I think just the addition of Mike McDaniel and what he did for the Dolphins offense. Completely different playmakers, obviously. Completely different quarterback. You know, see some comments in here about Trey Harris Yes, Trey Harris would hopefully have a role as well, which is why I don't want to see Keenan Allen, because I think Trey Harris could be that third receiver and be a playmaker as well. But just looking at these guys and what they've done at times in their career. McConkey's rookie season, Quentin Johnston, you know, in some small pockets, Herbert obviously in the beginning part of his career, like there's so much upside for all these guys and Amari Hampton showed it last year as well. So I'm just excited about everybody on this team. And again, where you can draft them,

[A]

it's a sleeping giant of an offense. Garrett Wilson is Dave's guy and Garrett Wilson is currently wide receiver 16. Now a few days ago we did the wide receivers 10 through 18 segment or episode. He was wide receiver 19. That was in our consensus rankings. Looking at fantasy pros ADP. Garrett Wilson is wide receiver 16, 37th overall in between Zay Flowers and T. Higgins. And that was a group, Dave, that wide receiver 10 through 18 episode where we had like Nico Collins, AJ Brown at the top. And then I think we had a lot of guys who were kind of similar. We had a buka, Tedro, McMillan's A. Flowers, T. Higgins. I'm forgetting, forgetting some of them. But does Wilson fit right in with that group?

[B]

I think he's toward the back of that group and I know that last year he, he got off to such a hot start with Justin Fields and, and you'll think to yourself, oh, what's the worst that could happen? If he can, if he can average a huge amount of PPR points. I think it was like 19 PPR points per game with, with Justin Fields. Then of course he'll do great things with Geno Smith. But I'm, I'm nervous about how this offense has changed. Geno Smith at quarterback. Yeah, that's an upgrade over Justin Fields in, in many regards. But Smith has never led a wide receiver to a PPR average past 15 points per game in any of his six seasons as a full time starter. So that's a little bit worrisome. We know what the jets did in the draft. They've improved their receiving core offensive lines better. Great. That means that Gino will have protection, something he didn't have last year. It should make him more accurate. Also means that the run game could be a little bit more efficient and lean into a little bit more. I'm nervous about the type of target volume that Garrett Wilson will get relative to last year. That being said, he's still going to be up there in terms of target volume amongst wide receivers. I just don't want to overrate him. I don't want to draft him as, as a. As a top 30 player again. I think he's after that range, and if you get him in late round, I guess that would be late round three, early round four, I think that's fine. In full ppr, I think that's where he belongs.

[A]

Heath, I can't. I can't get completely over the fact that two straight years, Garrett Wilson has been 20, 24 wide receiver, 13 per game, 2025 wide receiver, 10 per game in the first six games of the season. What happened two years ago, Devonte Adams was acquired, and that was the end of that. Last year he got injured. So I don't know. I look at that, maybe that's not good enough. Maybe 13th, 10th, then we don't have to, you know, then we can justify him being, you know, 18th or so off the board. But what does that mean anything? Those small sample sizes, do they mean anything to you?

[C]

I think it gives us, like, maybe one of the reasons that we're still hopeful about a guy who, four years into his career has really not lived up to the hype and that I can't get over. And it's a quarterback thing in a lot of ways, but it's still True. He's played 58 games. He's got over 500 targets in his career, and he's averaging 6.9 yards per target for the entire career, which is really like. Well, the guy it reminds me the most of is Deontay Johnson, who just got all these targets and didn't very often turn them into fantasy points unless there were a bunch of catches. I think Johnson had one great year, if I remember right. I still think that there's hope. I have hope, but as bad as Geno Smith was, it's hard for me to say, well, now he's got a better quarterback.

[A]

My take on Wilson's low efficiency is that he has never had a good deep ball thrower. In fact, he's had absolutely terrible deep ball throwers. And this is one where I've watched a lot of the deep balls. I think all of them from the last two seasons. And he's been open. I mean, there have been these opportunities, and his quarterbacks have just been absolutely horrible. He's one of the least. He's one of the least successful deep ball guys. We look at 20 or more air yards, you know, since he entered the

[C]

NFL, how often does he do that? Because like his, his adot's never been over 10.5 and it was 9.1 each of the last two years.

[A]

I think he does it enough. I don't know, it's like a lot or a little. I don't think he's an outlier. Probably pretty normal, my guess. But I think you're right. I mean that he's got. I, I compared him to Crystal. I don't know, I did an episode a couple months ago. We compared him to Chris Olave and George Pickens. I think because they're all in the same draft class or. Yeah, I think so. They've all had similar situations where Pickens was held back probably by quarterback play, among other things. Olave, quarterback, Wilson, quarterback play. And finally it clicked for Pickens and finally all these targets for Olave. Wilson's metrics are so much worse than those guys. But do we think he's actually worse than them or do we think there's something else there?

[D]

I mean, I'm sure if you put him with a better quarterback, we would see what he's capable of doing at a high level. And you know, you mentioned it like before Devonte Adams was there, he was looking like that guy we saw it last year with Justin Fields and there's a history with those two guys in college, so maybe that mattered a little bit. But it's, I just hope he's not one of these guys. Like we keep making excuses for year after year after year and then we never get to see what he's capable of doing. You know, I, you know, you've heard me references for years like Stefan Diggs in Minnesota and then he gets set free to Buffalo and looks like a league winner, you know, so plays like a league winner. So will that have to be, will that is that was going to take for Garrett Wilson to get that type of, you know, reprieve? Whether it's, you know, the jets moving on, which they committed to him with his contract, or hopefully finding it, finally getting the quarterback right. I think as he said, like we're counting on Geno Smith to be that guy. Like that's a hard ask. And then you're factoring in, as Dave alluded to, you know, you bring in the two first round picks, like there's a lot more talent around him and then you remember what he did when Devonte Adams was there and it wasn't great. So I think you just kind of know what Garrett Wilson is. He's, you know, chance to be a good number Two fantasy receiver. If there's some spike weeks in there, again, we don't know how that would have played out last year. If, you know, you know, going back to your question earlier this week, if Malik Neighbors was healthy, what will we be talking about this year? Well, if Garrett Wilson was healthy and it was 19.9 or, you know, 17 point plus for the season, we probably drafting him in round two. So, you know, I, I think there's that upside still. It's just. Can we get it? Can we see it? Yep.

[B]

Adam, you brought up the, the, the film on Garrett Wilson being open deep downfield targets of 20 plus air yards. Geno Smith in, in Las Vegas last year was terrible on those throws and he didn't really have. He had 44 of them. That's low for him compared to what he did in the three years prior in Seattle. And in those three years, his completion rate was never worse than 42.6%. That's top 30among all quarterbacks cumulatively over the last four seasons. That includes a top 10 year. His EPA per drop back in those years in Seattle. Also very, very good. Well past the point of, of, of average. If he's got the protection, maybe he can make those connections deep with Garrett Wilson. Maybe that adds a little bit of hope for upside. Even though we never saw it like manifest itself in a great fantasy season for any of Garrett Wilson's receivers. And for the record, we've rarely seen it in great fantasy seasons for receivers coached up by Frank Reich. And this is a Jets offense that's finished bottom five in points per game six of the last seven seasons. But other than all that, there, maybe there is a chance where Gino can connect with Garrett Wilson. And maybe that's just enough to make you feel better about drafting him at all, much less with a pick in late round three, early round four.

[A]

I would do it. I'm actually, I feel like I'm talking myself into being the Garrett Wilson guy.

[C]

Okay, then let me give you one, one last counter.

[D]

Okay.

[C]

Just because I was, I was thinking about this and I think one of the other problems. There have been 27 wide receivers since Garrett Wilson came into the league with at least 200 targets and an adopt below 10. Here are the guys who have less yak per reception for him in those last four years. Stefan Diggs, Michael Pittman, Juwan Jennings, Jacoby Myers, Keenan Allen, Adam Thielen. Most of those guys are old dudes, don't, don't run much.

[A]

I, you know what? I, I think Keith, I, I Think I'm just willing to say the stats don't matter and Garrett Wilson's a lot better than what he's what's on paper. And I'm, I'm a pretty big stats guy at this point in my career, my, my life. But I don't know, I just feel like I'm willing to throw it out. Like seeing the guy play football, he does some things on the field that are really impressive and I just feel like he was putting it together last year. He's having it. He was so damn good last year and I was so wrong on him last year. So I remember going, he's had 140 plus targets all three years of his career and he hasn't been that good for fantasy. Is Justin Fields going to be the quarterback that fixes that? And he did it. And, and I think Geno Smith, as long as, you know, Smith can get me close to his Seattle days and not his Raiders days when they had the worst, arguably the worst offensive line in football. Dave, on those deep balls that you mentioned where Geno Smith was really bad last year, he had the fifth highest pressure rate of all quarterbacks on deep ball attempts. And I watched all of his deep balls and he was getting his butt kicked on a lot of them. So I just, I get it. He. There is not a statistical argument to make for him other than the fact that he's been on pace for over 140 targets all four years of his career. And what I learned from Wilson last year was that anyone who gets that kind of target volume, even if their history isn't that good, has upside. And I think, I think Wilson showed it last year and I think he can do it again.

[B]

He.

[C]

Yeah, I mean he did score four touchdowns in five games. He did not even have 100 yard game.

[D]

When are you willing to commit to.

[A]

If I can get him in round, I'm not gonna make him around three pick unless it's like you know, second to last pick. Let's say three, four turn or later. How about you?

[B]

So about 35th overall? Yeah, I'll call it that. I'm pretty close to that. And full ppr?

[A]

Yes, full ppr because the targets the catches, right?

[B]

Not PPR is a different Jamie Heath.

[A]

How about you guys?

[C]

Garrett will same range in the 40s. Okay, so you're not that far.

[A]

I'll make my last guy quick here. It's, it's DK Metcalf, wide receiver, 33 overall in ADP.

[C]

Oh, I thought that was, that was your flare Outlook.

[A]

I just, when I wrote the outlook, I, I just can't make an upside case for him. I mean, I. The best thing about DK Metcalf, this is actually pretty cool. He has his lowest ADP since he was a rookie and by far, I mean, he's been basically picked top 50 every year since a very good rookie season. You're finally able to get him in the 70s. So maybe he can, you know, be a wide receiver 25 to 30 or something like that. But his target per out run rate has not been very good for two or three straight years. It was pretty low last year. Now they've got Pittman. I don't think he's a great fit for Aaron Rodgers. I will pretty much never draft DK Metcalf because there are guys like he's going in between Jordan Tyson and Parker Washington. And I could see those guys being so much better than DK Metcalf. They could be so much worse than him. But I just, I feel like in the range DK Metcalf's going to Jamie, I feel like he has almost no upside, no league winning upside. He hasn't been that basically since the second year in the NFL. He's just kind of just a name at this point.

[D]

To me, that's probably the safe way to approach it. I, I think the, if you're going to be optimistic about DK Metcalf, it's Mike McCarthy and the hope is that McCarthy will allow the routes to be there for him, that Rogers will hopefully take some shots to him. But again, you're asking Rogers to be different than he was a year ago at his age and Metcalf to sort of relive some of those moments. So I think he's appropriately priced. I think you're taking him as a low end number three receiver with the hope that he can be better than that. But it's a, for me, it's a big hope, you know, So I, I don't, I'm kind of with you. I don't really want to draft DK Metcalf unless he falls to the right spot. But I also think like there's still chance, you know, it's Jim Carrey and dumb and dumber chance, but I think there's a chance like he can get back to that top 20 range if the touchdowns are there, if Aaron Rodgers buys into more of Mike McCarthy as opposed to Mike McCarthy buying more into Aaron Rodgers, like there is still some paths to success. I just don't want to take a chance on him for the most part.

[A]

Oh, That was. That was a sound bite. All right, that's DK Metcalf. Which Scott fishbowl league are you guys in?

[D]

I haven't chosen yet.

[C]

I am drafting live in Miami. I'll be in the. The gta.

[A]

The Grand Theft Auto League. Very cool. Or should I say grand theft Alvarado Nixon 4. Dave, how about you?

[B]

I'm in the burger time.

[A]

What the heck is burger time?

[B]

You don't know what burger time is?

[A]

No.

[B]

Video game.

[A]

I don't remember that game.

[D]

That's when Dave goes to restaurant and turns a burger into a chicken sandwich.

[C]

No, I did that.

[B]

Why would I turn. Why would burger time be when I turn a burger into a chicken?

[D]

This is what you do.

[B]

I would turn a chicken sandwich into a burger. I. I actually did this last night. Jamie, you would be not at all surprised to learn that I. I ordered a salad, and it was supposed to have chicken on it, and I turned it into a burger, and it was really.

[A]

Wait, what? How did you turn a salad that was supposed to have chicken on it into a burger?

[B]

I asked the server if the kitchen would put a burger on it instead of chicken, and she said, yeah, they can do that. And I was like, cool, I'll have it.

[A]

Wait, just. Oh, just like, the ground meat part.

[B]

And I like to think of it more as, like, a bowl than a burger. So I had a burger bowl. I had a. I had a bunless burger.

[A]

Okay.

[C]

Okay.

[A]

Wouldn't it be funny if Dave had a salad and they just put, like, a cheeseburger on it?

[B]

A full cheeseburger with the bun on top of.

[A]

This is very.

[B]

I would like to see. I would like to see what that looks like. I'm gonna have to ask AI to do that for me.

[A]

I'm gonna have a salad tonight. I think.

[B]

Greasy cheeseburger on top of a salad.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

And then I can tell my wife I had a salad. She'll be like, oh, good for you. I'm proud of you.

[A]

I'm in the RBI baseball league, by the way. What a game. Sega Genesis. RBI baseball, I think 93.

[B]

So you know those games, but you don't know burger time?

[A]

What system was burger time?

[B]

I mean, it was before you were born. No, it was in the arcades and then. I mean, I still have it for Nintendo. The original nes.

[A]

Yeah. I don't know. This looks horrible. Looking at some images right now, looks like a terrible game. Bad pitch.

[D]

Fun.

[C]

Epic.

[A]

Well, thanks for watching. Listening, everybody. Talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football. Today,

[E]

Paramount podcasts. Are you really buying a car online on Autotrader right now? Really? I can get super specific with dealer listings and see cars based on my budget. You can really have it delivered or pick it up, Mommy. Kid is walking up the slide.

[A]

Really?

[E]

AutoTrader? Buy your car online? Really?