Pros & Cons of Wide Receivers Ranked 10-18! Round 2-3 WR Breakdown! (06/01 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today: Pros & Cons of Wide Receivers Ranked 10-18 (June 1, 2026)

Episode Theme:
A deep dive into the wide receivers ranked 10-18 in Fantasy Football Today's consensus PPR rankings. The crew evaluates the upside, floors, and risk factors of this crucial tier, helping listeners make smarter draft decisions for the heart of their fantasy receiving corps.

Hosts & Analysts:

• Adam Aizer (Host)
• Dave Richard (Analyst)
• Jamey Eisenberg (Analyst)
• Heath Cummings (Analyst)
• Ernest (Frequent Contributor/Producer voices and chat interaction)

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Overview of the Episode (01:21-03:44)

The team discusses the intrigue and volatility of drafting wide receivers in the 10-18 range:

• Main List: Rashee Rice, T. Higgins, Chris Olave, AJ Brown, Emeka Egbuka, Zay Flowers, DeVonta Smith, Tetairoa McMillan, Malik Nabers.
• This section is crucial for getting your WR2 (or even WR1 if you wait).
• These wideouts carry both top-12 upside and "gross floor" bust potential.

Quote:
“These are all wide receivers that have the potential to finish top 12 per game in PPR. They also have potential to finish somewhere between 20th and 99th… There are some pretty gross floors for some of these guys.” – Ernest (03:44)

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Key Discussion Points and Segment Breakdowns

The State of the Tier: Why Range 10-18 is Both Exciting and Terrifying (03:44-05:46)

• Some names come with major question marks: injury (Rice, Higgins), role changes, or off-field (Rice suspension, Nabers’ health).
• Importance of WR drafting strategy: if you don’t get an early-round ace, this group will likely provide your WR2.

---

Impromptu “Fill in the Blank” Game (04:30-09:22)

Safest in the Group? (04:30-06:45)

• Contenders: Higgins (“been top-15 when healthy”), Rice (“if not suspended or hurt”), Flowers, Smith.
• Debate about "safe" floors—concerns about injuries and offensive consistency.

Quote:
“Rice and Higgins have such poor injury track records, it’s hard to say they’re safe. I’ll still say A.J. Brown.” – Jamey (05:03)

Biggest Upside? (07:20-09:14)

• Rice and Egbuka are named; Nabers, depending on health, could have “crazy” potential.
• AJ Brown’s name mentioned as a possible “top three WR upside if he lands in New England.”

Lowest Floor / Bust Potential? (09:24-10:21)

• Most likely busts if they play 17 games: consensus is Olave (due to situational concerns and target competition), with a side mention of Egbuka.

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2024 & 2025: How Did the Historical WR10-18 Tier Fare? (18:49-21:22)

• 2024: This group performed poorly—just 3 out of 9 finished top 20 overall.
• 2025 was better: 6/9 hit top-18 per game and several were "league winners."
• The message: wide swings are possible, so manager awareness is key for risk management.

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Positional Mini-Breakdowns: Breaking Down Groups of Three

Group 1: Rashee Rice, T. Higgins, Chris Olave (21:22-31:06)

• Olave:
  • Concern over target dilution with the addition of Jordan Tyson and TE Oscar Delp.
  • Noted huge splits in performance with/without Rashid Shaheed.
  • “He could have a floor around WR21 per game if everything goes wrong, but also a top-10 finish if the touchdowns stick.” (25:11-26:37)
• Higgins:
  • Cements “safe” value when on the field with Burrow/Chase, but usually lacks alpha usage (low targets per route).
  • He’s “a discounted version of a top WR2” with double-digit TD upside.
  • But if touchdown luck dries up or targets stay low, “he might actually be a bust.” (28:12)
• Rice:
  • Uncertainty lingers (knee recovery, legal issues), but if on the field, could be as safe as anyone in the range.

Memorable Quote:
“The safest wide receiver in this group is … Higgins. Well, hold on. Is Rashee Rice suspended?” – Ernest (04:43)

---

Group 2: AJ Brown, Emeka Egbuka, Zay Flowers (31:52-42:23)

• AJ Brown:
  • Polarizing: If traded (likely to the Patriots), could see more volume and be “finally unleashed.”
  • Some concerns about decline and role in a potentially run-heavy New England offense.
  • “This is on paper probably the best passing QB he’s going to play with,” Jamey notes about Drake Maye (35:29).
• Egbuka:
  • 2025 hamstring injury sapped his stats; healthy, he’s got top-12 potential, but offense/QB questions persist.
  • “If Malik Nabers is a-okay, he’s got the most upside.” – Ernest (07:53)
• Zay Flowers:
  • “He actually comes out as WR10 in my projections… He’s awesome as a player. I’m hopeful for an uptick in passing attempts.” – Dave (40:15)
  • But he needs more than his typical 7 targets per game to truly break out.

AJ Brown Hot Take:
“I feel like A.J. Brown could be a top three wide receiver.” – Adam (34:40)

---

Group 3: DeVonta Smith, Tetairoa McMillan, Malik Nabers (43:20-55:07)

• Smith:
  • Elite opportunity if/when AJ Brown is traded—Philly views him as a #1 receiver (“Runway is pretty clear.” – Jamey (48:56))
  • Track record: In games without AJ Brown, he’s been solid. But will he be truly elite?
• McMillan:
  • Productive rookie year, “but upside seems capped if Bryce Young and the Carolina offense don’t take a leap.” (53:49)
  • If Panthers run struggles, he could see a target spike.
• Nabers:
  • Health is a major limiting factor (ACL/Meniscus recovery, missed much of preseason).
  • The Giants’ intended run-heavy approach could restrict ceiling even if fully healthy.
  • “If he was healthy, we’d be talking about a top five overall,” Jamey (46:47).

Notable Quote:
“If Malik Nabers gets drafted as a top 10 WR, I think it would be a mistake. You gotta be pretty sold on him being his old self.” – Adam (45:47)

---

Key Insights and Rankings Philosophy

• Egbuka, Smith, and McMillan are all clustered tightly in projections—slight differences in ranks reflect personal taste and risk tolerance.
• Nabers is consistently ranked lowest due to current health uncertainty.
• The group highlights the “choose your risk” nature of these picks: floor vs. ceiling.
• Several analysts are ranking on the assumption that AJ Brown is traded (55:21-55:23).

---

Lightning Round: Listener Questions/Chat & Fun Moments

• Banter on NBA bets, ideal “night out with the boys,” and group camaraderie.
• Rapid Fire: “Are we projecting Zay Flowers’ 2025 numbers for Nabers in a best-case scenario?”
  • “I think we’re gonna see two seasons for Nabers: a slow start, then a strong finish.” – Jamey (56:18)

Light-hearted moment:
“Johnny Airport wants to know if we should expect Zay Flowers numbers from Malik Nabers… who knows what to expect, but 1200 yards… you think he’d hit that if he played 17 games?” – Adam (55:41)

---

Selected Timestamps for Key Segments

• 03:44 — Overview: “Potential and gross floors” (Ernest)
• 05:46 — Fill in the blank: Safe, upside, lowest floor
• 18:49 — Past performance of WR10-18
• 21:22 — First grouping breakdown (Rice/Higgins/Olave)
• 31:52 — Next tier analysis (Brown/Egbuka/Flowers)
• 43:20 — Final group breakdown (Smith/McMillan/Nabers)
• 48:56 — Devonta Smith’s expected role
• 53:49 — Analysis of McMillan’s rookie campaign
• 55:41 — Mailbag: Comparing Nabers’ potential to Zay Flowers

---

Memorable Quotes & Analysis

• “He gives you the opportunity to score 10-plus touchdowns… You’re just gonna have to understand there’s going to be weeks when he does not score that you’re going to be a little frustrated.” – Jamie on T. Higgins (29:35)
• “This is on paper probably the best passing quarterback he’s going to play with.” – Jamie on AJ Brown and Drake Maye (35:29)
• “I think you can make the case for almost any of these guys having the most upside.” – Ernest (09:14)
• “I want to believe it with Smith and McMillan… but you’re just hoping McMillan gets more than just targets, but actually does more with them.” – Dave (52:32)

---

Advice and Takeaways for Fantasy Managers

• Drafting WRs in the 10-18 Tier:
  • Embrace volatility—nearly all have top-12 ceilings, but each comes with a real path to bust.
  • Injury history, target competition, and new team roles are the critical differentiators.
• Strategy:
  • If you hate the uncertainty, "prioritize WR early" (rounds 1-2) so you don’t have to anchor your team here.
  • If you’re aggressive, bet on health/news swings for post-hype/Wr1 potential.

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In Summary:
The “10-18” range for wide receivers in PPR leagues is loaded with both risk and reward. Managers must weigh situational context, injury reports, camp news, and upside vs. floor to make the most of these crucial picks. Listen for a passionate, data-rich debate with actionable advice!

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For further analysis & updated rankings, visit CBSSports.com and follow the FFT crew throughout draft season.

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Transcript

[Adam]

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[Adam]

No, you don't understand. It went perfectly. Real offer down to the penny. They're picking it up tomorrow. Nothing went wrong.

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That is the problem. Nothing in my life goes as smoothly. I'm waiting for the catch.

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That's exactly what a catch would want me to think.

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Wow. You need to relax.

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[Dave]

this is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.

[Adam]

What a play. Can you believe this? No, I can't.

[Ernest]

It's time to dominate your fantasy league.

[Adam]

Off to the races and he stays at his feet. This is gonna go the distance.

[Dave]

Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.

[Adam]

Welcome to the show. It is Monday, June 1. It is maybe A.J. brown Day. It could be any day, hopefully, that he gets traded. Welcome to the show. As we talk about A.J. brown in wide receivers 10 through 18 in our consensus pie CPR rankings, that would be Rasheed Rice, T. Higgins, Chris Olave, AJ Brown, Ameka Abuka, Zay Flowers, Devonte Smith, Teterro McMillan and Malik Neighbors. Pretty.

[Jamie]

I mean, we're doing an emergency podcast later.

[Adam]

It's very possible. Very possible. Be on the lookout. Holy cow. Can you believe A.J. brown was traded? How could we have prepared for this? To the Patriots, no less.

[Jamie]

Wait, why don't. Why don't. When we talk about A.J. brown, like, you pause, you reintroduce the show, you end the show there, and then you clip that as the emergency podcast for later.

[Adam]

Yeah, I don't know. I mean, I. I guess it has to be an emergency podcast. Players like AJ Brown don't get traded every day. But also, man, it may not happen for a while. We don't know what the compensation is going to be. The recent report was that they weren't close. The Patriots and the. And the Eagles. And what if it's a different team anyway? Heath. But I just read those names. Nine wide receivers. Rashee Rice, T. Higgins, Olave, A.J. brown, Abuka Flowers, Devonte Smith, Tettero McMillan, Malik Neighbors. How would you sum up this group? These wide receivers are what a very,

[Dave]

very exciting and in the case of many of them, also a little bit terrifying.

[Adam]

Who are the terrifying ones?

[Dave]

Well, obviously Rashi Rice. I think you could be concerned about A.J. brown. Buka's second half was a disaster. Tedro McMillan's offense might be also. Malik Neighbors is not healthy. Garrett Wilson is on the jets like most. Most of them.

[Adam]

Oh, okay.

[Jamie]

Yeah.

[Adam]

Garrett Wilson actually is wide receiver 19 in the consensus rankings. We could talk about him at some point.

[Dave]

Oh, he's not supposed to be on the. On. On. I'm always supposed to say that name.

[Adam]

No, it's fine. He's on the graphic. Thomas gave us the 10 wide receiver, which makes sense five on the graphic here. But I didn't. I'm just saying. I didn't say Garrett Wilson, but he is wide receiver 19 and he is on the jets, and that is pretty scary. Dave, how would you characterize this group of receivers?

[Ernest]

These are all wide receivers that have the potential to finish top 12 per game in PPR. They also have potential to finish somewhere between 20th and 99th PPR points per game. Like there. There are some pretty gross floors for some of these guys, but the. These are the bulk of the number two wide receivers that you're going to be drafting in August.

[Adam]

And Jamie, your thoughts on rice, Higgins, Olave, A.J. brown, Abuka Flowers, Devonte Smith, Tetterella McMillan and Neighbors.

[Jamie]

I mean, I think they summed it up pretty well, but, you know, welcome to round three and four.

[Ernest]

Yeah. And if you hate this list, get ready to prioritize wide receiver and get one. Or if not, two of those first nine names that we haven't mentioned, and you probably can figure out who those names are.

[Adam]

You know what? Let's do some impromptu fill in the blank. Impromptu fill in the blank. The safest wide receiver in this group is Blank

[Ernest]

Higgins. Well, hold on. Is Rasheed Rice suspended?

[Adam]

So Andy Reid said that the league gave no indication that there will be any suspension. Andy Reid basically said it's over.

[Ernest]

So if he's playing 17 and he's a part of training camp, I'm okay saying Rice is the safest.

[Jamie]

I would probably I mean, look, Rice and Higgins have such poor injury track records, it's hard to say they're safe. I'll still say A.J.

[Dave]

brown. Oh, man. Yeah, I, that's the thing is like, based on my introduction, I. There's not a lot of guys that I'd say are like safe to be top 20 guys. If, if A.J. brown's gone, then it may be Devontae Smith.

[Adam]

So Higgins, that's.

[Jamie]

That was the question. Top 20 safe.

[Adam]

Just safe.

[Ernest]

Just safe. He didn't quantify it.

[Adam]

Higgins has been, you know, in, in the five seasons he's played. Just counting the games with Burrow Chase, Higgins all playing normal snap shares, he's been top 15 in 405. You know, he's. He's been good enough to be a top 15 wide receiver. Actually top 13 in four of those five seasons in terms of his points per game.

[Dave]

Well, if we're just going to do counting the games where they played normal snap shares, then it's Rushy Rice.

[Adam]

Yeah. Unless you feel like recovering from knee injury in jail is not, not good for.

[Jamie]

I mean, I think if, if you're just looking at safe, it's probably Flowers and Smith because you know what their floors are.

[Adam]

Flowers and Smith.

[Dave]

I almost said flowers seem safe.

[Adam]

I mean, I, I don't know that you know what Flowers for. He was wide receiver 36 per game in 2024 with the same amount of targets. Basically two fewer targets.

[Ernest]

The floor is 12 PPR points, you

[Adam]

know, so I, I don't know that we know that. Yeah, I go, I guess. What do you think about that, Jamie? Take a. Take that at you sure. Well, I mean, it's a good point, isn't it? He. He basically. Zay Flowers two seasons in a row had basically the same amount of targets. One year he was wide receiver 36 per game. Last year, I think he was like wide receiver 12 per game. So that's. I don't think he'll be 36 per game, but I don't know. That's kind of an interesting stat, isn't it?

[Jamie]

Yeah.

[Adam]

Thank you. Okay, next. Fill in the blank. The most upside in this group belongs to. And just for the listeners at home that aren't looking at the list, it's right. Rashi rice, Higgins Olave, AJ Brown, Abuka Flowers, Devonte Smith, Tettero McMillan, Malik neighbors. Most upside in this group belongs to who? Heath Rice. Go ahead. Anybody jump in there.

[Jamie]

It's right. I'll say Abuka just for another name.

[Ernest]

If Malik Neighbors is a. Okay. He's got the most upside. That is a big slow running to

[Jamie]

first base if you look like Adam trying to go to first place.

[Ernest]

Yeah, I don't wanna. I don't wanna overrate that. It's. It's a softball game. Three months before the season starts. I bet if you were playing football. I bet other people were running like that at the game. And I bet others that are healthier would probably.

[Jamie]

If he was playing football, he would not be playing football, right?

[Ernest]

He would not be playing football if that was the case. No, he would not be. Luckily, he doesn't have to for, like. He doesn't have to practice for two months. It's June 1st.

[Adam]

Yeah, that's Malik. Neighbors who played in it.

[Jamie]

Another great dynasty trade you made, by the way. Get rid of Malik. Never.

[Adam]

Yeah, I told you. Charity softball game.

[Jamie]

Who'd you end up with?

[Dave]

He hasn't made the picture yet. Have you? Or was that.

[Adam]

That.

[Ernest]

Was that the.

[Dave]

That was a big burger, wasn't it?

[Adam]

Yeah, I made the picks yet, but I ended up with.

[Ernest]

What?

[Adam]

I don't remember picks. 11, 12.

[Ernest]

Such a good trade.

[Adam]

11 12. And Michael Wilson and something next year, too. Second round or next year or something.

[Dave]

So he's gonna have Michael Wilson, Jeremy Bernard, and Chris Brezel.

[Adam]

Maybe I'll. Yeah. Yeah, I'm looking forward to that. Anyway, last one. Oh, by the way, I think I could make a case for A.J. brown having the most upside if he goes to the Patriots.

[Ernest]

You can make the case for any of these guys have the most up?

[Adam]

I don't know. You think so? I don't think.

[Jamie]

Maybe not.

[Ernest]

Say flowers.

[Adam]

I don't think Higgins.

[Ernest]

Everybody else. I think you can.

[Adam]

All right, last one is the. Who has the lowest floor Non injury. Like these guys. They all play 17 games. Most like. I say most likely to be a bust if they all play 17 games in this group. Jamie.

[Jamie]

If they all play 17 games, most

[Adam]

likely to be a bust performance. Bust.

[Jamie]

I mean, I already made a case for Olave, so I'll say Olave.

[Adam]

Mm. What was your case for Olave?

[Jamie]

His numbers with Rashid Shahid. Without Rashid Shahid. Last year.

[Adam]

When did you make that case? On express, you mean? Or did you do that today?

[Jamie]

Yeah, on the site, too. But that was one of the ones we discussed on express.

[Adam]

Okay, so Olave for Jamie Heath,

[Dave]

most likely to be a bust. I'll say a buga.

[Adam]

Okay.

[Ernest]

Dave, I think Olave is probably the best one for that category.

[Adam]

Okay. Okay. Let's do some news and notes. By the way, we have a lot of other podcasts that you'll find very interesting. We got some soccer podcasts as we get ready for the World cup and fantasy baseball. Obvious Fantasy football today. Dynasty beyond the Box score. Go to cbsports.com podcast and see the full list.

[Jamie]

You'll can we discuss fantasy baseball for a second? Because you came on here a couple weeks ago, I think it was and was like, I have the greatest fantasy baseball team ever.

[Adam]

Did I jinx us?

[Jamie]

And since then, half our team has gotten hurt and we've lost, I think two of our last three.

[Adam]

Yeah, I have that magic touch even when I'm not paying attention. But we're still the sixth seed right now. So in the playoffs it started.

[Jamie]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Adam]

Oh, Ellie got hurt, right? Ellie De La Cruz. They get hurt.

[Jamie]

He is day to day.

[Adam]

Yeah, that's a bummer. All right.

[Jamie]

You didn't like that pick when I made it also.

[Adam]

I didn't.

[Jamie]

No.

[Dave]

Well, there you go.

[Adam]

I knew it. He's going to get hurt. All right, so your news and notes. It is June 1st. That means that the the Eagles can spread A.J. brown's cap hit over two years if they trade him going forward. So we'll keep an eye on that. DJ Moore says he's having some growing pains in the new offense with Buffalo, but he says it it will be perfect later on. And Rashi Rice. We already gave you some news on Rashi Rice, but he's expected to be ready for training camp. He's recovering from this cleanup knee surgery and Andy Reid said he doesn't expect the league to suspend Rice. Chris Olave gained 10 pounds of muscle. He plans on losing five of those pounds in training camp, but apparently he looks great. Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur here's some tight end news. Let's see four tight end notes for you. Matt LaFleur hopes that Tucker Kraft is ready for the beginning of training camp or at least early in training camp. Brock Bowers is 100% healthy. He's back to full speed. Sam Laporta. No rush to get him back on the field. He's still recovering from back surgery. Laporta could be ready for training camp. We'll see. And jets rookie tight end Kenyon Sadiq had minor surgery for a hernia. He's expected to be ready for training camp. The jets knew about this when they drafted him, but you'd like to see him have a regular off season as a rookie. He'll have a little bit of a recovery. Kenyan Sadiq More news here. ESPN's Jeremy Fowler thinks to Sean Watson has a leg up in the quarterback competition for the Browns earlier. I think last month we saw Mary Kay Cabot say that, that Brown, that Watson is ahead in the competition. Christian McCaffrey, you know, talk about him getting some rest and fewer carries, whatever. He says that he'll rest during practice and that's, you know, he'll, I think he seems ready for his workload, his big workload. Meanwhile, backup running back Isaac Arundo for the Niners, he tore his peck about a month ago. He should be back sometime in training camp, maybe toward the end of training camp. Miami wide receiver news Omar Kelly of the Miami Herald says Malik Washington seems to be grasping the playbook faster than the other receivers. He also says that tight end Greg Dulcich has been a standout during OTAs.

[Ernest]

He also said that Malik Willis hasn't looked good. Oh, that's, that's early and it's OTAs. We'll get an idea on him. I'll see him this week.

[Adam]

You're going to lunch with him?

[Ernest]

If he's, if he's up for it, sure. But otherwise I'll just watch him practice.

[Adam]

Ben Johnson says he is buying Luther Burden stock right now. Not the first time he has praised Luther Burden this off season. D' Amico Ryan's praised second year receiver Jaden Higgins. Malik Neighbors played softball and didn't look good. Cam Scatterboo did a. It didn't look good running. Cam Scatter Boo did a backflip. The Giants are working out Juju Smith Schuster, Odell Beckham Jr. And Braxton Barrios. Today they're one of their receivers. Andrew Miller. Interesting.

[Dave]

Wasn't he a relief pitcher?

[Adam]

Yeah. Andrew Miller, the lefty for the Yankees

[Dave]

and really tall, wasn't he? Yeah.

[Adam]

Who's Andrew Miller?

[Dave]

I think Anthony Miller is what Anthony

[Ernest]

Miller is still getting tryouts.

[Adam]

All right. If. If Gunnar Olchewski, a return man for the Giants and a wide receiver. Torres Achilles, which is what is feared. He is the third Giants player to tears Achilles this year. It's crazy.

[Ernest]

That turf at MetLife.

[Adam]

Yeah, they're not there yet. Tennessee quarterback coach Shay Tierney wants Cam Ward to run the ball more this season. Ward average just 9.3 rushing yards per game. If you remove Week 18 when he played five snaps, they seem to be

[Ernest]

going in a direction where they want him to do more of that. That was talked about earlier in the off season. Ward put on weight, I think, to absorb more of that and that's something that we've seen. Brian Dable lean into ever since he had his hands on Josh Allen back in the day. And I don't think he's going to turn into the next Josh Allen, but I wonder if he gets, you know, I think he averaged like 2.3 carries per game.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Ernest]

And Cam can run a little bit. Maybe four carries a game.

[Adam]

Yeah, that'd be great. The Vikings hired a new gm. It's Seattle. Assistant GM Nolan Teasley and Garrett Wilson fired up about Frank Reich's offense. Seems seems optimistic right now. That's a good thing. He's not always been so happy with the direction of the Jets.

[Ernest]

Yeah.

[Adam]

Okay, we're gonna take a break and we have a tweet of the day when we come back. And then we'll get into wide receivers 10 through 18, including how this group did each of the previous two years. Was this a productive group? Disappointing group. Somewhere in between. Yeah, it's somewhere in between. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today.

[Angie Hicks]

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[Dave]

Make it quick, young man.

[Angie Hicks]

Aw, see, Pop Pop trusts you.

[Ernest]

I think we should call a doctor.

[Adam]

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[Adam]

Okay, it's time for our tweet of the day. Dave, you know Cousin Ernest.

[Ernest]

I named him Cousin Ernest.

[Adam]

One of our long listeners. He says cousin Ernest here in spurs land. Adam, let's make a bet. Your Knicks versus my Spurs. I win, we co host the league team. You win, I heckle Dan at the next tennis match. Or something else. I'm Game. I'm in because I think we're going to win. I am. The Knicks are going to win the NBA Finals. Going to be amazing. And you're on Earnest. We'll co host a team in your league. I don't know what to. I don't know if you guys have any ideas when the Knicks win. What Cousin Ernest will owe me. I don't need him to heckle Dan at the next tennis match. I'm not going to win it anyway. But you think of anything. This was just my way of saying that I'm picking the Knicks to win the NBA Finals. Nicks in six. Heath, you're muted. Ernest.

[Ernest]

Ernest hosts a show. If the spurs win, okay, you can

[Adam]

come on the show and you have to.

[Ernest]

And you have to be there and you have to watch, but you're on mute the whole time.

[Adam]

Oh, no, no. He's not hosting a full show. Maybe.

[Ernest]

Yes, full show.

[Dave]

Do you think that the, the Knicks are going to be like the, the underdog? I mean, they're the underdogs from a betting standpoint, but from like who? Everybody's cheering for it. A really strange experience in South Florida out of Buffalo Wild Wings on Saturday night. I took my 16 year old. He was cheering for the Thunder, I was cheering for the spurs and the place was packed and there might have been two people in the whole building cheering for the Thunder.

[Adam]

Oh, everyone hates the Thunder. No, the Knicks would be the fan favorite if the Thunder were in because Shay. Shay Gilbert Alexander fell like 50 times during the NBA Western Conference Finals. They are a dirty, cheating, no good, lousy team. I, I wanted the Knicks to, to beat the Thunder, but I don't think they would have. No, I, I think the answer to your question is everybody loves Wemby and hates New York. So the spurs are going to be the sentimental favorites.

[Dave]

And I'm just glad Jalen Brunson never falls down.

[Adam]

No, he. He does. And a lot of players do. Harden does and all that. But I forget which writer it was. He went back, he watched every. He watched all the tape and she. Gil say Gilgis Alexander does it so much more than anyone else. So much more. It was broken down in an article, I think on Yahoo. And not only like you saw that play against the Lakers where I think it was Holmgren acted like he got hit in the face and he fell down or the neck or something. It didn't get hit in the face at all. They reviewed it. They're just cheater. They're cheaters. They're no good Lousy cheaters. I'm glad they're out. Okay, wide receivers 10 through 18. Here we go. Okay, 2024. This group stunk in just in terms of ADP. This is not ADP. This is consensus rankings. But if we look at ADP from fantasy pros. Wide receivers 10 through 18, obviously nine receivers. Only three of them in 2024 finished in the top 20 overall. Four finished in the top 24 overall. Five of them finished wide receiver 38 or worse on a per game basis. Only four of the nine finished in the top 20. Five of them finished in the top 24 that year. Olave, Debo, Ayuk, Pittman and Cooper cup were complete busts last year. It's a little more fresh on your brain. Here were the wide receivers that were 10 through 18 in PPR. AJ Brown, he finished his wide receiver 12 per game. Lad McConkey, he was a bust. Wide receiver 38. T. Higgins finishes wide receiver 17 overall, 16 per game. So he was fine. Tyreek Hill, wide receiver 103 overall, 18th per game. JSN was wide receiver 2. Terry McLaurin was wide receiver 55 overall, 36 per game. Mike Evans was 76 overall, 40, 41st per game. Garrett Wilson was 61st overall, 15th per game. And Devonte Adams was wide receiver 9. So you had Tyree Kill, Terry McLaurin, Mike Evans, and Garrett Wilson being bused because they were injured. But six of the nine receivers in this group finished top 18 per game and were drafted as top 18 receivers. So I think this group was. Was pretty horrible in 2024 and pretty solid in 2025, including JSN as a league winner. All right. With that said, I already asked you guys how you feel about Rasheed Rice, T. Higgins, Chris Olave, A.J. brown, Abuka, Zay Flowers, Devonte Smith, McMillan and Neighbors. So let's put them in groups of three and break them down. Dave, Rashid Rice, T. Higgins and Chris Olave. Do you consider Chris Olave to be not like the others? Rashid Rice, T. Higgins, Chris Olave.

[Ernest]

He's behind a buka or. I'm sorry, he's behind a book of two for me, but also T. Higgins and Rasheed Rice. As of now, Rice is my favorite of the group. And Olave, I. I feel like I need to see it again. I don't think the situation is going to be the same. Love the offense. I'm. I'm a believer in Tyler Shuck. I think he can. I think he can handle it. Can he handle two receivers? Plus to getting good numbers on A weekly basis. I don't know. I don't know if Olavi's the same type of target volume that he saw toward the end of last year or maybe even overall last year with a rookie like Jordan Tyson on the field in New Orleans.

[Adam]

Jamie, you were not apparently swayed by my Rashid Shahid wasn't really that big of a factor argument on FFT Express. The target share was basically the same with and without Rashid Shahid. But your concern is he wasn't as good when Rashid Shahid was there, and now they have Jordan Tyson. So elaborate on why you think Chris Olave has some bus potential.

[Jamie]

Well, Tyson obviously is a better prospect than Shahid. Hopefully he performs better than Shahid. But in the nine games with Rashid Shahid before he was. He was traded, Olave averaged 14.1 PPR points. Now, you could say Tyler Schuck wasn't the quarterback for most of that. And then, you know, just taking hold of Kellen Moore's offense. It's a fair argument. And he averaged 20.2 PPR points after Shahid was traded. So that's a pretty big leap in production, you know, six points per game. So can he be closer to that, or will he be closer to the 14? And, you know, I. I'm gonna guess he's probably somewhere in between if things go right. I'm just a little concerned that, you know, we're looking at a player who got significant competition. You know, the run game should be better, you know, with the addition of ETNH and, you know, Travis and. And what he brings. You know, they added another tight end. You know, that's going to be, I. I think a little bit of a playmaker and a factor in Oscar Delp. But obviously, if Jordan Tyson is as advertised, you know, he could easily push for targets and. And take targets away from Olave where he didn't have that problem after Shahid was gone, because the rest of the receiving corps was, for the most part, miserable. So, yes, the target share was the same, so that's, you know, encouraging. But I still think you're looking at an offense that hopefully continues to evolve. You know, a lot of expectations on Tyler Shock, you know, so hopefully he. He lives up to them. But I think just looking at Olave and in this group, he definitely belongs in this group, he should be closer to the top than the bottom. I just think there's a. There should be a little bit cause for concern for what his career has been and for what he was able to produce last year when there was no competition. On the field.

[Adam]

Well, let's talk about what his career has been. Just to give some numbers here. Olave has played 15, 16, 8 and 16 games in his four year career. And here's where he has finished per game in full ppr. And it's not that much different than Non or half PPR. Rookie year Wide receiver 27 per game Second season Wide receiver 21 per game Third season was just horrible. I think it was wide receiver 55 or 58 per game. I said it a few minutes ago but he was one of those busts in this range two years ago and then last year wide receiver seven per game in a down year for wide receivers. Typically what he averaged last year would have been around wide receiver 10 per game but still phenomenal year for him. Heath, I Look at that 20, 23 season, 87 catches, 1123 yards, five touchdowns on 138 targets. I never know exactly what someone's floor is. But do you think it's fair to say that's probably around the floor for Olave which was wide receiver 21 per game that year?

[Dave]

Yeah, I think, I think that's fair to say. If we're taking injury concern out of it. I mean there is a chance the Jordan Tyson shows up and it's just like oh wow.

[Jamie]

Yeah.

[Dave]

By mid season they have a 1A and a 1B and we don't even know for sure who it is on a week to week basis. There's also a chance that Tyson who's already missed some time this summer as they kind of manage a hamstring issue, it just isn't really that big of a factor. And if you look at Olavi, I think Jamie said he averaged 20 fantasy points per game after Shahid was gone. And it is like almost a, a perfect split with when Tyler Shuck became the starter and when Rashid Shahid left. But it was 18.8 fantasy points per game in eight games with Tyler Shuck. I think the, the big thing is going to be were the, the touchdown spike last year. How much of that is sustainable? It was. He had 10 touchdowns in his first three seasons in the league. He scored nine last year. Yeah but for a very good wide receiver, which we think he is, nine touchdowns on 156 targets isn't crazy at all. He had a 5.8% touchdown rate. That's really, that's good. He's good. So if you're looking at like what's more statistically normal, it's the touchdown rate last year than the touchdown rate the first three years. And if he scores eight or nine touchdowns, I think he's gonna have 80 catches and 1100 yards.

[Adam]

He caught almost every touchdown from Tyler Schuck because he was on pace. Olavi was on Pace for 13 touchdowns in eight games with Shuck and Chuck was only on pace for 19 touchdowns in those games. So yeah, they just had a great connection. He got more, a lot more end zone targets than he ever had. He caught four touchdowns on deep balls, which was rare for him. All right, so that's Olave. And then let me bring something up with Higgins. He just seems like, like I said earlier, when he's on the field with Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase, He's a top 15 wide receiver on a per game basis every year, except for 2023, which was just a miserable year for the Bengals offense. But there have only been two wide receivers over the last four years that have finished top 16 per game in PPR with a target per route run rate below 22%. And T. Higgins is both of them his targets last year? I mean like, what was his 17 game pace last year? It was less than a thousand yards. I think it was something like 110 targets. I can look it up. But his 17 game pace was 111 targets, 959 yards, 13 touchdowns. He had a, a target per hour run rate. I think it was 18.4% or something like that. That's really, really low. The year before that it was 24 and he was a top five receiver per game. But that is the big outlier for him. So I just want to bring it up that Higgins feels super safe because he does it every year. If he gets a target per out run rate, Dave, in the 18 range, he's on pace for 111 targets that he might, he might actually be a bust. Right?

[Ernest]

I mean, I mean especially if the touchdown rate goes down. I think when you're drafting T. Higgins, you're counting on him to score a boatload of touchdowns. And I think you cannot rule that out. Given the offense, given the quarterback, given his role, I, I, I feel kind of good about T. Higgins. I feel good about, I'm not in the projections game. Heath is, I don't know how many touchdowns he's projected for T. Higgins, but I know to expect a lot of points from the Bengals offense and if they're going to score a lot of points, their top two pass catchers are going to come up with a lot of them. And so he had 11 last year. That's kind of crazy, but it wouldn't surprise me if he matched that number this year. You're drafting him for the Teddies?

[Dave]

I, I've got him projected for 9.3, which is the second highest in this group behind only Rashi Rice.

[Ernest]

Yeah, makes sense.

[Adam]

And then obviously if Jamar Chase gets hurt, there's, there's big upside.

[Ernest]

Oh, gosh, yes.

[Adam]

But even if he just gets the targets up to like 125 or something, you could have a huge year from Higgins. But it's weird that I, I don't, I feel like, I feel like he's going late. Let me look at the adp. I feel like Higgins is not getting quite the respect that he doesn't feel as exciting as some of these younger receivers who could take a step like DeVontae Smith without AJ Brown and Tedro McMillan. Smith's not that young, but I guess guys who maybe you could project more upside for than T. Higgins does that

[Jamie]

he tends to fall in drafts. I, I think, you know, you, you look at it and say, okay, what am I drafting? Am I drafting a guy that's just gonna score a bunch of touchdowns or am I drafting a guy that could hopefully take a step forward? And I think we've kind of made the argument for him over the years of, well, what happens if Jamar Chase misses time? Well, you know that, that's very rare that Jamar Chase misses time. You know, it's happened a couple of times, but not over a full season. Hopefully doesn't happen this year. So I, I think when you look at T. Higgins like, you kind of just know what you're buying. You know, you're buying like a discounted George Pickens, you know, the second best receiver on his team, but not maybe the same heights that, that Pickett's can get to as we saw last year. I think just he, that that's why I think Higgins is safe. You know, he, he gives you the opportunity to score 10 plus touchdowns. He's done that now in back to back seasons. He's on a team that's still, I think, going to throw the ball a lot. He has one of the best passing quarterbacks in the NFL. And so there's a lot to love about his situation. But you're just gonna have to understand there's going to be weeks when he does not score that you're going to be a little frustrated.

[Adam]

But it's interesting to see, like, would you take a mecca Buka, who had five good games in his career over this proven Commodity. T. Higgins. Would you take Zay Flowers? Because he say Flowers is slightly ahead of Higgins and fantasy pros adp, like those two guys in particular. Would you take Higgins or Flowers or a Buka? Who's your favorite? There's.

[Jamie]

It probably depends on how you started your team and what you're looking for. For me, I have Higgins ranked higher just because I think he's again, safer. But the upside certainly favors the other two.

[Dave]

If they hit, I'll go Flowers, Higgins, Abuka.

[Ernest]

I've got the exact opposite order.

[Adam]

Buka, Higgins, Flowers. Okay, someone asked what he's done when Joe Burrow has played a full season. Joe Burrow, three years playing 16 or 17 games. 2021, 2022 and 2024. In 2021, Higgins averaged 15.7 points per game. In 2024, he averaged 18.7 points per game. You'd obviously take either of those in the third round. 2022, he averaged only 13.7 points per game, but he left three games very early to kill his per game averages. And that does happen with T. Higgins. All right, next group of three is AJ Brown, Ameka Abuka, and Zay Flowers. AJ Brown, Ameca Abuka, Zay Flowers. Jamie, how do you rank those three?

[Jamie]

Right now, currently, it's Brown, Abuka, Flowers,

[Adam]

Dave, AJ Ameka, Zay Heath. Now you have to do their middle names.

[Dave]

I don't know those, but I do have the opposite order, so I'm doing my job there. Zay abuka, A.J.

[Jamie]

wow.

[Adam]

Okay. Things just got interesting. I know you're kind of down on the Bucks offense comparatively, but let's talk about your. Your why you hate, completely hate, despise AJ Brown and Emeka Buka, which is what you just said.

[Dave]

I. I think. And I was just writing the Tampa Bay player outlooks this morning, so it's kind of. Kind of fresh on my mind. I think just the completely opposite halves of season that Abuka and Baker Mayfield and this offense had last year is a little bit concerning. I. You have to. I worry about Baker Mayfield's accuracy bouncing back. I worry about another new offensive system and just how pass heavy it's going to be. And I think he has, I mean, obvious top 10 upside. But if somebody from this group, I think, finishes outside of the top 20 and there's no real reason for it, I think it would probably be a booker.

[Adam]

Okay, this group again is AJ Brown and Mecca Abuka and Zay Flowers. What's your issue with A.J. brown?

[Dave]

He was not quite the same guy last year, and I Don't blame all of that on Jalen Hurts because I'm the Jalen Hurts defender. I don't think that New England's going to be. I'm assuming he's in New England. I don't think New England's going to be like a pass heavy offense. I think it's still probably one of the teams that run runs as in the top 10 in terms of run place next year. And I'm not entirely convinced that they're just going to throw it 10 times per game to A.J. brown.

[Adam]

There's Patriots through for 4,426 yards and 31 touchdowns last year. That's better than any season the Eagles have had in the last four years.

[Ernest]

Yes sir.

[Adam]

Now I know Heath, you don't think Drake may will be as efficient as he was.

[Dave]

I don't think he will average 9 yards per pass attempt again.

[Adam]

No. I guess I would just. I've made the argument I'll make it again. I'm sure I'll make it again tonight when there's a bonus podcast. They're gonna lose more games. I think this year they have a tougher schedule. I don't. I think they're gonna have to throw a little bit more. Plus they didn't have AJ Brown last year, so it just. Shouldn't they throw more if they have A.J.

[Jamie]

brown?

[Dave]

Oh, I think they will probably throw more. They, they only. Barry Drake bay only threw 492 passes last year.

[Adam]

Right.

[Dave]

So they were about 70 below league median.

[Adam]

I just wonder if this is finally the year he's been on the Titans and the Eagles in his career. Is this the year that he's finally unleashed? I mean, I feel like A.J. brown could be a top three wide receiver.

[Dave]

Well, I don't think that's like he had 158 targets in 2023. I don't think. Yeah, we can say he wasn't unleashed in Philadelphia.

[Adam]

Okay.

[Dave]

In a 1450 yard season, but they only threw 25. 1496 yard season.

[Adam]

But the fact that Jalen Hurts was running for double digit touchdowns every year and they only threw 24. They threw 24 to 26 touchdowns all four years in Philadelphia. So obviously I'm not saying Hurts was bad for A.J. brown. He gave him some terrific years, but he could have been even better if he threw the ball more instead of running it in the end zone.

[Jamie]

Well, this, this, this is on paper probably the best passing quarterback he's going to play with.

[Adam]

Thank you for summing up my thoughts in one clear concise. Sentence. Thank you.

[Jamie]

And that's not a knock on Jalen hurts. I just think that Drake may, May be a better passer, you know, so. Yes, and it remains to be seen. I mean, he's obviously still very young in his career, but I think you're making this move. If they're making this move and probably giving up the compensation, whether it's a first round pick or multiple twos, however this is going to unfold. And signing Romeo Dobbs, like, clearly they realized their passing game was not as good as it could be last year. And so does that change how things look from an offensive standpoint? Plus, you factor in, like you said, more competitive schedule, probably more opportunities to throw the ball, you're still looking at a backfield that I think has some questions. You know, Ramandre was really good last year, but is he a true lead running back? Is Trevion Henderson that guy? You know, so I would expect more of a 50, 50 split, if not maybe a little bit more leaning toward a more. More pass heavy, you know, to what degree, we'll find out. So I think this is just the evolution of what you do when you have these young quarterbacks, is you build around them and then you try to add a piece of. Of significance. And AJ Brown is that piece. And so does that make things better for him? That's what I'm counting on. You know, I, I think again, yes, he didn't have a great season last year. There was a stretch where he was still a very dominant fantasy option and a very solid wide receiver. You know, it wasn't what we're used to seeing because we're used to seeing more of it. And when he was bad, he was really bad. But I think if you look at it and say, okay, can he still be that guy? He's still under 30. You know, he's getting closer to the end of his prime, but he's still in it right now at least. And you have to hope that if he was unmotivated last year and all the things that unfolded, he's got to be hopefully as motivated as he's been. You know, certainly when he went to Philadelphia at that time, again, younger receiver, he was, you know, clearly joining a friend of his. And that friendship has fallen apart, which I'm sure factor into all this as well. The offensive coordinator is better than what he had last year. I think that's easy to say. And so, you know, he's looking at, I think, I don't know how long of a run this is, but I think for 20, 26, A.J. brown could still be, I don't know, top three Adam. But I think he could still push to be top 10.

[Adam]

All right, I'm gonna take a break. By the way, AJ Brown averaged 18.6 PPR fantasy points per game, which is phenomenal in his last seven games when he was on pace for 163 targets. One more. I'll just bring up one more thing with these guys when we come back after this quick break on fantasy football today.

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[Adam]

So with Brown and abuka, you know A.J. brown had a preseason. Was it a hamstring? I think it was a hamstring injury in the preseason. I just saw an article Aug. 25 where he the practice with a hamstring injury and people thought he was hurt. And then a book I'm just going to Read directly from ESPN. ESPN wrote a week six hamstring injuries for Mecca Buka. A week six hamstring injury robbed him of his top speed. NFL Next Gen Stats tracking data had a Buka with 11 routes of at least 18 miles per hour through the first five weeks of the season and 11 such routes in the remaining 12 weeks after the hamstring injury. So it's just something to keep in mind. That's exactly when the downturn started for Abuka.

[Ernest]

He was supposed to miss time and then he was a surprise active he and he didn't miss any games.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Ernest]

So he tried gutting through what turned out to be a pretty bad hamstring injury. The highlight from OTAS that everybody's oohing and ahhing about. I think his speed looks pretty good in that play. That's more. That's just as impressive to me as catching a ball behind him and, you know, making the one handed grab. I'm, I'm bullish on a book. I'd still rather draft AJ Brown, but those two to me are like right in that low end wide receiver 1 range on draft day.

[Adam]

Does anybody have anything else to say about Zay Flowers? We kind of overlooked him in this group of three.

[Dave]

Yeah, I think part of it is like I'm, I'm maybe more high on Flowers than low on the other two guys in terms of where they are in our consensus rankings. He comes out of. Somebody in the chat said he's going to be a top 10 wide receiver this year. He actually comes out as wide receiver 10 in my projections. So he, I think he's awesome as a player. I'm hopeful for an uptick in passing attempts with the new offensive coordinator there, and I don't see anybody on that team that's going to challenge his 30 target share.

[Adam]

Okay.

[Ernest]

Doyle does have a history of working with coaches who love tight ends, and Doyle himself is a former tight ends coach. And the Ravens have gotten rid of their fullback. So I'm expecting them to be one of many teams that see their personnel usage of two plus tight ends go way up. I don't know if that necessarily means a huge drop off, if any, in targets for Zay flowers. And a 30 target share sounds great, but he's been at 6.9, 6.8 targets per game each of the last two years. And he's had flashes and certainly streaks of huge fantasy games and also terrible floors where he's getting 10, 11, maybe even less PPR points per game. I love the talent. I say it every time I talk about safe. Flowers. Love the talent. Wish you would get eight targets per game. Wish he'd get used more in the red zone. He'd be awesome for fantasy if that would happen. It hasn't happened and I don't know if it's ever gonna happen.

[Adam]

Keith, what are your target projections for Flowers?

[Dave]

It's. It's a career high. I know that I've got him at 130.

[Adam]

Okay.

[Ernest]

Well over 17 games, 7.6 targets per game. That would be a career high.

[Adam]

Yeah, his career high, I think is 118.

[Dave]

And well, and you, you've talked about how he had the same, basically the same number of targets last two years, but two years ago they threw 50 more, 55 more passes. So his. He earned a higher share of the targets last Year. If the, if we get 50 more passes, then it might be another 15 targets for him right there.

[Ernest]

Yeah, that would put him over seven

[Adam]

per game easily on a per game basis. Last year we actually had four wide receivers. Finished top 12 per game with 120 or fewer targets. That's in the four seasons before that we had a combined three and last year we had four. So it's hard. It had been very difficult to be a top 12 wide receiver per game with 120. Technically is 121 or fewer targets. Somebody did with 121. So I counted him to be top 12 per game with that target, with that target range. But four guys did it last year, including Flowers. All right, next group of three. This is wide receivers 16, 17 and 18 in our consensus rankings. Devonte Smith, Teterell McMillan, Malik Neighbors. Jamie, your thoughts on this group. How do you rank Devontae Smith? Tettero McMillan, Malik neighbors.

[Jamie]

Smith, McMillan neighbors.

[Adam]

Smith. McMillan neighbors. Just like that. Heath.

[Dave]

I've got it. McMillan, Smith neighbors. But McMillan and Smith are. Are separated by 0.17 points in my season long projections. So it's like they are tied. If I could just have those at the same ranking, that'd be perfect.

[Ernest]

Dave McMillan, Smith Gap. Neighbors.

[Adam]

Do you have other people ranked ahead of Neighbors?

[Ernest]

Yes.

[Jamie]

Who?

[Ernest]

Olave Waddle, Gar Wilson, Zay Flowers.

[Adam]

Okay, so a little bit different than the consensus rankings. All right, so Neighbors is last for everyone. And then Devonte Smith and Terrell McMillan appear to be very close. Heath, give me your thoughts on this group of three.

[Dave]

I think McMillan has, in my opinion, the least amount of upside currently, which is saying strange probably to put him first if that's the case. I think until A.J. brown's actually gone, McMillan probably has the safest floor of this group. And if we get to the first day of training camp and Malik Neighbors is a full participant, then he's not even. I'm not even sure if he's on this graphic anymore.

[Ernest]

No, he won't be.

[Adam]

Oh, man. You think he'll be in the top 10?

[Dave]

I think so.

[Ernest]

He's not on the PUP list to start training, camping. He's out there almost every day with the Giants. That's. First of all, I'd be really surprised if that happened. But second of all, that would be a really good sign.

[Adam]

I guess so. But I just. After all of this, right after a very, you know, serious knee injury with multiple ligaments, I can't remember exactly what the injury was, but oh, no, it was meniscus it was ACL and meniscus.

[Ernest]

Yes.

[Adam]

With multiple surgeries.

[Jamie]

Not his lcp,

[Adam]

not as opp Multiple surgeries. I just, like, I don't know what to expect. I just can't sit here and expect Malik Neighbors to be himself, even when he's quote, unquote, healthy and on the field. You know what I mean? Like, obviously, Brock Bowers didn't have surgery last year. He came back and he wasn't himself. So he was healthy, he was ready to play, but he was obviously hampered. I don't know, man. I, to me, if Malik Neighbors gets drafted As a top 10 wide receiver, I think it would be a mistake.

[Ernest]

You got to be, you got to be pretty sold on him being his old self.

[Jamie]

I, I, I, at this point, he won't be a top 10 receiver for me, so he might move up a couple spots, but he'll be in this range for this year.

[Adam]

What do you guys think, just based on what you've seen from, you know, the Giants offense and what they plan to be? They, they. Dave said the Ravens got rid of their fullback. Well, he went to the Giants. They drafted an interior offensive lineman in the, you know, top, the 10th overall pick, and they've said repeatedly they want to run the football. So let's just say Malik Neighbors were healthy. The health wasn't a concern. What kind of year do you think he would have, Dave, do you think he'd be able to get a lot of targets and be an awesome fantasy producer in this offense?

[Ernest]

I think he'd be around seven and a half to eight targets per game. If he's his old self, there's no question.

[Jamie]

I'm sorry. If he was healthy. So, like, the injury never happened.

[Adam]

Yeah, basically.

[Jamie]

Okay, well, if the injury never happened, then we're talking about a top five overall, Right?

[Ernest]

Right.

[Adam]

Because most of those guys are getting, you know, close to 10 targets a game. You think that's on?

[Jamie]

If he had stayed healthy, he would have been fantastic last year or close to it. And then you're talking about coming off that year with what Jackson Dart did like the, the expectations would have been unrealistic.

[Dave]

Yeah, I don't. If he was completely healthy, I would expect him to get nine targets a game.

[Ernest]

Okay. I wouldn't. I think it goes down. I did a whole dive on every single new play caller in the league, and I think the biggest influence on Matt Nagy is going to end up being John Harbaugh. This is from the story I wrote. You'll see it on CBSSports.com in the next week. In 18 seasons, the Ravens were above a 60 pass times between 56 and 59% three other times. So that means that there were six out of 18 seasons where they were throwing the ball 56 plus percent of the time seems pretty low. The Giants last year with Jackson dart threw the ball 51.4% of his plays. Yes, this they, they def John Harbaugh does not want to turn into a crazy high volume passing offense. Even if he's got Malik Neighbors there. He's going to ask Matt Nagy to call a lot of runs. Maybe that changes if Scatterboo gets hurt early on in the year. Tyrone Tracy is totally ineffective. Yeah, of course then they're going to have to start to throw a little bit more. But even if, even if the injury had never happened, I would expect at least a small downturn in target volume for Malik neighbors. And now that he might not be, who the hell knows how he's going to be by the time we get to August 1st. But if he's not practicing and he's not himself, he might average six targets per game all year.

[Adam]

Well, I did want to get your thoughts on that because I know it's hypothetical and all, but I just, I wanted to point out that the Giants want to go in a different direction offensively if they can pull it off. Their lead running back is coming off a serious injury too. And also that Jackson Dart didn't really throw that much because he ran the ball so much. Right. I don't Remember. It was 28 ish pass attempts per game, something like that in his starts. Not a lot. All right, but the other guys, Devonte Smith and Tedro McMillan. Jamie, what if anything, separates Smith for you from McMillan?

[Jamie]

I mean, the hope would be is that if A.J. brown does get traded, which is the expectation that the rest of the receiving core, including a guy that they drafted at 20th overall, is nowhere near AJ Brown. So, you know, Makai Lemon, Don Tavian Wicks, Marquis Brown, you know, there's one more guy in there, you know, that, that they, they just make Devonte Smith the number one receiver. And that's what they've been saying. You know, at least the reports out of Philadelphia have been they viewed Devonte Smith as number one receiver. He takes that step forward. He's been 14.2 PPR points or more in the three games that A.J. brown has missed during their time together. That's such a small sample size, but, you know, it's, it's 14.2, 14.7 like 21 something, you know, so he has the chance to be amazing. And in all three of those games, it was nine targets or more. So we're looking at a guy that hopefully will get fed. That being said, you know, it's a matter of how high you want to have him. You know, I've seen some of the comments in the chat. Devonte Smith should be where A.J. brown is. Devontae Smith should be, you know, where T. Higgins is, you know, so I think a lot of people are excited about the situation and again they should be. But now you're putting in a high profile rookie, you're bringing in some veteran guys that they really didn't lean on. Really anybody in the past that was just really concentrated to the three main pass catching options of the two receivers in the tight end. They have a second tight end now. You know, I think the new coordinator will throw the ball a little bit more to Saquon Barkley and Sean Manion. So, you know, that's something I think that could help Barkley as well. I just think you're looking at devonte Smith and the Runway is pretty clear. So hopefully that's the case for him going into the season.

[Adam]

Dave, your thoughts on Devonte Smith versus Tedro McMillan?

[Ernest]

I want to believe it. With DevonTae Smith and Tedro McMillan, I think it might be easier to actually buy into devontae Smith because we've seen him in the small sample size without AJ Brown, and frankly, in games when Brown's played and Dallas Goddard's been out, that devonte Smith sees an uptick in targets and he does usually really well with them. And that gets me excited about what he could end up being in, in Philly's office. I think they're going to be coordinated much better. That's not saying much. They were terrible last year, but I think Sean Manion is one of these wonderkin type of play callers. He's only been coaching in the NFL. This is his third season, I think, coaching in the National Football League and he's already an offensive coordinator. I, I think it's going to be a sharper offense. Certainly, you know, west coast timing base. Devonte Smith knows he's got to be on this spot of the field in this many seconds, turning around, balls out and it's there. And he has to make a play after the catch and I think he can pull that off. So I'm, I'm kind of excited about Smith in that regard. With McMillan, you're just hoping that he gets not just More targets, but just does more with them. Last year he had a bunch of games where he had at least seven. He had 10 games with seven plus targets. He had 15 plus PPR and four of the 10. So I'm hoping that he takes a second year jump. I'm not really discouraged by anything that the Panthers did with their passing game. And I'm still not sure the Panthers running game is going to be where Carolina wants it to be. This could be a situation where they, they don't want to be a throwing team, but they might have to be and that would obviously benefit McMillan. He could probably have a lot of games this year with a plus targets.

[Adam]

And Heath McMillan versus Smith, you said you have him almost exactly even in your projections.

[Dave]

I, I think they pretty much covered it. I, I, I just don't have much hope that Bryce Young is going to be good enough to make Ted roll McMillan a top top 12. Maybe he could be a top 12 wide receiver if it's like last year was, but I, I think Smith has more upside and just a little, a little more downside because we haven't seen him in this role recently.

[Adam]

Okay.

[Jamie]

I think the thing for McMillan is like if he does what he did a year ago, you'll be happy about it.

[Adam]

He had some good, I know Dave said, you know, he has to do more with the targets, but you know, look, I think some of his production was just boosted. He had a 33 point game against the Falcons in week 11. Other than that, he scored 16 or more points in, in five total games out of 17.

[Jamie]

So I mean, this is like the greatest division. You get pits against the Bucks and he just goes nuts. You get McMillan against the Falcons, he goes nuts.

[Adam]

Like it felt, it felt like a really frustrating season where most weeks he was disappointing, but at the end of the day, he had a thousand yards. As a rookie, he was 26th out of 78 wide receivers with 50 or more targets. Teterell McMillan was 26 in yards per out run, 18th in yards per catch, 28th in yards per target, only 30th in target per out run rate, but that's not terrible. He did have a lot of drops though. 6.7 drop rate, so he's got to clean that up. But I think a pretty encouraging season. If you go game by game, it's not that good for McMillan, but just look at the overall numbers. Finishing his wide receiver 23 per game. Granted in a down year for receivers was, was really good.

[Jamie]

I mean, again, you hope year two is better. You Know, typically rookies, you've highlighted this forever. Typically rookies that produce like this tend to get better. And he obviously was a high profile draft pick. So it really comes down to do you buy into Bryce Young? Do you buy into this offense? And I think that's what for me, holds me back a little bit with McMillan, is that you're looking at a quarterback. He said it. That I don't think is going to elevate him to the heights of being a, a top 10 guy at least right now. So if you just, I think draft him accordingly as a mid tier wide receiver, that's fine. Does he have the ability to get better?

[Ernest]

Sure he can.

[Jamie]

He can be a 9 to 10 touchdown guy. It wouldn't shock me. They also added another receiver that's getting some buzz. You know, for what it's worth, Xavier will get lost weight, you know, trying to, I think save whatever he can of his, you know, disappointing first two seasons of his career. I think Jalen Coker healthy for a full season will matter too. And then we'll see what this backfill looks like, which may be a plus for McMillan if they can't run the ball to the same, same level of success that they had last year. So I think McMillan is to me appropriately priced. You know, somewhere in, in the late teens is, is where I would be looking to target him. I probably would not take him until round four, but I just think there's more upside like he said for Devonte Smith as, as we kind of illustrated.

[Adam]

Okay, I'm gonna read a few chat comments to end the show from Whisco Disco. Are most of CBS rankings assuming AJ Brown is traded or will some of you move devonte Smith up even more once the trade happens?

[Dave]

Minus Zoom, AJ Brown is traded.

[Jamie]

Okay, same.

[Adam]

Okay.

[Jamie]

By the way, you missed Whisco Disco 97. Best comment in the chat because Johnny Airport said if the Knicks win, I think he said the Knicks win, you have to go clubbing with him for 24 hours straight. And Whisco Disco said Johnny would not have enough hand sanitizer to take with him. Or something along those lines.

[Adam]

If the Knicks win, I have to go clubbing. I'd say if the spurs. When I have to go clubbing, there's not many things I'd like to do less than go clubbing for even one hour. Gosh, 24. My goodness. Johnny Airport wants to know if we should expect Zay Flowers numbers from Malik Neighbors and that would be from last year. 86 catches, 1200 yards, 5 touchdowns on 118 targets, I have no idea what to. Who knows what to expect, but 1200 yards, you think he'd hit that if he played 17 games? Malik neighbors.

[Jamie]

I think we're going to see two seasons from Malik Neighbors, a struggling beginning until he gets his legs underneath him and see what this offense looks like, and then a strong finish.

[Adam]

And then Johnny also says if you're worried about Tel McMillan because of Bryce, then Justin Jefferson should scare you even more. I guess because of Kyler,

[Dave]

I have projected for almost exactly the same fantasy points per game as a Flowers last year.

[Adam]

Oh, so there you go. You've worried about Justin Jefferson with Kyler.

[Dave]

I mean, a little.

[Jamie]

There are some concerns.

[Ernest]

Yeah.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

They're small concerns.

[Adam]

I like that. Good. Nice pun to end the show. Okay, thanks, everybody. For. For watching and listening. Johnny says, I had a feeling that Adam hates clubs and social settings in general.

[Ernest]

I will give you that idea.

[Adam]

I like social settings. Of course I hate clubs, but I like social settings. Preferably. Preferably involving food. You know, like a dinner. I like a dinner. What would your be your ideal night out with your friends be.

[Ernest]

Would you do,

[Jamie]

like, just guy friends?

[Adam]

Yeah. While you think about it, mine would be poker and pizza. Like, play some poker, order pizza, watch the game.

[Dave]

It'd probably be a game thing. I was thinking, like, sitting at home waiting for Adam to call me and invite me to the thing that Dave and Jamie are already gone to.

[Adam]

That. That. That event. Heath, by the way, is a. Help Adam with his player outlooks party. Yeah, I'll call you for that. He.

[Jamie]

He called me and, like, he gave me some, like, fake question that he really didn't want to ask. And then it was. He goes, I have two questions for you. And the first question was, like, so stupid. Then the second one was, like, so how do I write these player outlooks?

[Adam]

No, I said, like, how do I know who to write about?

[Dave]

Didn't you do it last year?

[Adam]

Yeah, I did. I did.

[Dave]

You're an expert.

[Adam]

They were great. I got a lot of great reviews on them.

[Dave]

Lots of positive feedback on this.

[Adam]

Yeah. All right, well, Heath and Dave, and if you guys have a. A night out that you like to plan with your guy friends, Dave would go to the casino stakes.

[Ernest]

Sports casino.

[Dave]

I'm more of a night in kind of guy.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

Halloween, I guess.

[Dave]

Yeah. Like, house party with the. The porch light turned off, sitting on the back patio with a fire going, some meat on the smoker.

[Adam]

Okay. I'd come to that if I got invited.

[Dave]

You would not Yeah.

[Adam]

I wouldn't cover. I would not get invited.

[Jamie]

Yeah.

[Adam]

Wait, that.

[Jamie]

What. What's the flip side of this? Has he ever invited Dave Adam anywhere?

[Dave]

No. Yes.

[Adam]

Where?

[Dave]

Wynwood Brewing. I mean, actual event that I scheduled and invited you to.

[Adam]

And I came, I went.

[Dave]

You did?

[Adam]

And I drank a little. Did a tiny bit.

[Jamie]

Wow.

[Adam]

Yeah. I had a sip. A few.

[Dave]

He has a few sips.

[Adam]

Yeah. All the flight, by the way, when you get all that beer in those little glasses called a flight. Yeah. Okay. Thanks for watching and listening, by the way. Four shows a week now. We're in June, so we'll talk to you either tomorrow or when A.J. brown gets traded. Whatever happens first. See you later.

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