Regression Candidates for 2026! Stafford, McCaffrey, McBride, & More! (06/02 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today (June 2, 2026)

Episode: Regression Candidates for 2026! Stafford, McCaffrey, McBride, & More!

---

Episode Overview

The FFT crew—Adam Aizer (Host), Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, and Heath Cummings—break down key regression candidates for the 2026 fantasy football season. The core theme: elite seasons are often followed by inevitable statistical regression to the mean, affecting players like Matthew Stafford, Christian McCaffrey, Trey McBride, Devante Adams, and more. The team brings insight drawn from historical trends, coaching changes, and offseason movement, with ample debate about rostering, risk, and ADP value.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. NFL News, Trades & Offseason Context

[03:12]

• Miles Garrett dealt to the Rams:
  • Jamie: “The Rams are all in… Not only got Miles Garrett, they also got Trent McDuffie this offseason. That defense just got a lot better. Now, with so many big contracts, could this mean delay in extensions for a guy like Puka Nacua?” (03:12)
• Impact of Defensive Upgrades on Team Pace:
  • Heath: “Does Miles Garrett going from Cleveland increase the likelihood of a higher pass rate for Cleveland…or a higher rush rate for the Rams? If the Rams defense is that much better, do we get more second-half rush attempts?” (04:13)

2. Team Play Volume Outlooks & OC Tendencies

[11:21]

• Low volume offenses (Raiders, Dolphins, Vikings) and likely progression:
  • Heath: “Raiders, Dolphins, Vikings all ran 100 fewer plays than league average last year. Expect natural progression; it’s unlikely they'll be this low again.” (11:47)
• Play-caller analysis:
  • Ben Johnson anticipated to speed up Bears’ pace. Kellen Moore highlighted as a “lot of plays” guy for Saints. Ravens’ pace likely to increase under new staff—all impacting player volume.

3. Quarterback Regression Candidates

Matthew Stafford – Touchdown Rate

[18:32]

• Exceptional TD rate in 2025 (7.67%)—not sustainable.
  • Heath: “John Daigle put out a chart: 15 QBs with >7% TD rate in past decade averaged 4.4 fewer fantasy points and a 2.2% decline in TD rate the following year.” (18:32)
• Fantasy Takeaway: Stafford likely drops from MVP-caliber to borderline streamer/starter range. Even with a good supporting cast, don’t draft expecting a repeat.

Trevor Lawrence – Rushing TDs

[21:39]

• 2025: 29 passing, 9 rushing TDs—likely to regress.
  • Jamie: “Nine rushing TDs is hard to anticipate or replicate... probably cut that in half at best.” (23:46)
  • Heath: “He’ll lose at least a point per game from rushing touchdowns.” (22:16)
• Upside remains: Lawrence excelled in last 7 contests, but don't count on near double-digit ground scores again.

Drake Maye – Yards per Attempt/Touchdown Rate

[27:00]

• 2025: 8.9 YPA, 72% completion, 6.3% TD rate—historic efficiency.
  • Heath: “Yards per attempt and most likely touchdown rate will regress. Maybe he falls from 8.9 down to around 8.0 YPA, and TD rate dips, like Allen/Mahomes trends.” (27:23)
  • Adam: “Attempts should climb with tougher schedule, possibly offsetting per-pass regression.” (28:22)

---

4. Running Back Regression

Christian McCaffrey – Receiving Volume

[30:13]

• 2025: 129 targets, 102 catches—outlier marks for SF tenure.
  • Heath: “He’s had only one season with more than 129 targets. SF went and got more WRs—Evans, Kirk, Stribling—so his passing usage likely to drop.” (30:36)
  • Jamie: “At age 30, can’t keep up that touch pace. They’ll rest him more, give him less work in passing game, especially with better WRs.” (32:57-33:11)

Breece Hall – Touchdown Totals

[34:03]

• Five rushing TDs, three seasons in a row
  • Adam: “Jets ranked 30th or worse in goal-line carries 3 years straight... yet Hall deserved more TDs considering his volume and overall efficiency.” (34:03)
  • Jamie: “Slight upgrades at QB and receiving core, plus a new contract show commitment, but still enough questions to keep Hall in RB13-16 range, not second round.” (36:14-37:49)

---

5. Wide Receiver Regression

Davante Adams – TD Volume and Efficiency

[41:03]

• 2025: 14 TDs in 14 games, but career-low yards/game and catch rate.
  • Heath: “If he scores seven TDs, he’s not somebody that you really ever want to start.” (41:59)
  • Jamie: “Depth chart is weak, but if that TD total drops and efficiency doesn’t return, Adams’ floor is scary low—especially if they add another veteran WR.” (42:02-44:15)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) – Massive Year on Low Volume

[45:49]

• Heath: “He’s very good, but whenever a player comes out of nowhere, you expect some regression—especially with OC/climate changes.” (45:49)
• Jamie: “They’ll need to throw more after losing RBs; JSN is their guy, still pushing 20 PPG and is a first-round pick for me.” (46:39)

Brian Thomas Jr. – Injuries & Expectation Reset

[48:42]

• Heath: “Too good to be as bad as he was last year. He played hurt and catch/target rates dropped way off. Expect a bounce-back, but Jaguars receiver group is a mystery cluster.” (49:22)

---

6. Tight End Regression

Trey McBride – Outlier Target Volume/Touchdown Rate

[54:41]

• Heath: “He was in one of the most tight end friendly systems. With coaching changes and more competition, I’d knock him down 2-3 points per game—possibly losing a target per game and dropping from seven+ TDs.” (54:51)
• Jamie: “If he falls to 16 PPG but the next TE is at 12, still an advantage. But I have Bowers > McBride this year.” (56:21)

Dallas Goedert – Touchdowns, Opportunity, and Age

[59:27]

• Heath: “Other than scoring TDs, Goedert was mediocre last year... If the touchdowns masked Goddard’s decline and the rookie TE Eli Stowers emerges, it could get ugly quick.” (60:02)

Tucker Kraft – Wild Efficiency Likely Unsustainable

[63:01]

• Heath: “He averaged 11.1 yards/target—Kittle-like, but probably even Kittle can’t do that again. If volume’s not there and efficiency normalizes, regression is coming.” (63:01)
• Jamie: “If he stayed healthy, he’d be in the top-3 TE conversation—still, he’s got to be healthy and continue performing. 70th-80th pick ADP is about right.” (65:03)

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

“One of the worst parts about this show is that it does sometimes turn into, ‘Yeah, this awesome thing that someone just did? They can’t do that again.’ But it’s usually right.” — Adam Aizer (01:43)

“If Stafford lost 4.4 points per game from what he did last season, he’d probably be a streamer in four point-per-passing-TD leagues. He’d still be a starter in six point for passing-TD leagues.” — Adam Aizer (19:47)

“If [Adams] scores seven touchdowns, he’s not someone you want to start.” — Heath Cummings (41:59)

“Nine rushing touchdowns (for Lawrence) is hard to anticipate or replicate... probably cut that in half at best.” — Jamie Eisenberg (23:46)

“Too good to be as bad as he was last year.” — Heath Cummings on Brian Thomas Jr. (49:58)

“He’s [McBride] probably losing a target per game… With coaching changes and Marvin Harrison Jr. commanding endzone looks, he’ll regress.” — Heath Cummings (54:51)

“If you want to say that [Breece Hall] is RB13 late round two, that’s putting him in Jeremiah Love and Derrick Henry range. Like, he could be better than them. I wouldn’t discount it. But… There’s reason to be a little pessimistic.” — Jamie Eisenberg (37:49)

---

Key Timestamps for Major Segments

• 03:12 – Miles Garrett trade analysis, Rams' all-in approach
• 11:47 – Team play volume regression: Raiders, Dolphins, Vikings, Cowboys
• 18:32 – Stafford's touchdown regression deep-dive
• 21:39 – Trevor Lawrence and rushing TDs outlook
• 27:00 – Drake Maye: extreme efficiency and what’s next
• 30:13 – McCaffrey receiving/target regression
• 34:03 – Breece Hall: can he find more TDs?
• 41:03 – Davante Adams: regression red flags
• 45:49 – JSN: breakout risk vs. regression, offensive context
• 48:42 – Brian Thomas Jr.: health/usage debates
• 54:41 – Trey McBride: target and TD outlook for 2026
• 59:27 – Dallas Goedert: why that TD spike won't last
• 63:01 – Tucker Kraft: why super efficiency isn't the norm

---

Tone & Style

The episode is fast-moving, stat-laden, irreverent, and analytical. Adam cracks wise (often self-deprecatingly), Heath is data-driven with sharp projections, and Jamie provides nuanced context and depth. The crew debates, agrees, and disagrees—but always translates advanced stats into actionable fantasy advice.

---

Final Takeaway

This episode of Fantasy Football Today serves as an invaluable reset for overvalued stars and fantasy MVPs coming off career years. The recurring lesson: everything regresses, so temper expectations, hunt for values, and draft with process, not just recency bias.

---

Transcript

[A]

Tyler redick here from 2311 Racing.

[B]

And Bubba Wallace.

[A]

You know what's the worst part of a race?

[C]

A rain delay.

[B]

Sitting around waiting for the track to dry is dull.

[C]

But instead of waiting, we hang out with Chumba Casino Social Casino, slots, bingo, solitaire. Plenty of fun to keep us entertained.

[A]

So why let a rain delay slow you down?

[C]

Play [e-mail] let's Chumba.

[A]

Sponsored by Chumba Casino. No purchase necessary. VGW FOIA prohibited by law. 21 terms and conditions apply.

[D]

We all belong outside. We're drawn to nature. Whether it's the recorded sounds of the ocean we doze off to or the succulents that adorn our homes. Nature makes all of our lives, well, better. Despite all this, we often go about our busy lives removed from it. But the outdoors is closer than we realize. With Alltrails, you can discover trails nearby and explore confidently with offline maps and on trail navigation. Download the free app today and make the most of your summer with alltrails.

[B]

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play.

[C]

Can you believe this?

[B]

No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league.

[A]

Off to the races and he stays on his feet. This is gonna go the distance.

[B]

Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath

[A]

talking about regression candidates on fantasy football today here on Tuesday, June 2nd. And what does that mean? Players that are gonna regress to the mean. Matthew Stafford through 40 touchdown passes last year. He's probably not going to do that, Although that was his second season out of five with the Rams with a 6.8% touchdown rate or better. He 6.8% touchdown rate is pretty good, huh?

[B]

It's exceptional. And one of the worst parts about this show is that it does sometimes turn into. Yeah, this awesome thing that someone just did. They can't do that again, but it's usually right.

[A]

By the way, it was 6.8% in 2021. It was 7.67% Stafford's touchdown rate last year. Trey McBride and all those targets. Can he repeat it? Well, he has led. He's been first or second at the position in target per out run rate three straight years. JSN, where's the regression there? Breeze Hall. Breeze Hall. Three straight seasons of 16 to 17 games, never scored more than five rushing touchdowns. Can we finally do better than that? You just heard from Heath. Good morning, Jamie.

[C]

Good morning.

[A]

Isn't it nice that we don't have to talk about A.J. brown on this podcast?

[C]

I mean, you're Assuming everybody listened to yesterday's show.

[A]

Yeah, everyone did. And if you didn't go do it now, we did a podcast. Yeah. Jamie, what do you think about Miles Garrett going to the Rams? He's so. He's 30 years old and AJ Brown is 29, and Miles Garrett fetched. The Browns got Jared Verse, a very good young pass rusher, a 2027 first, a 2028 second, and a 2029 third. Whereas the Patriots only gave up a fifth round pick this year and a first round pick in 2028. So quite a haul for the Browns. What do you think about that trade?

[C]

I think it's great for both sides. You know, the Browns are obviously building for 2027 and beyond, and Jared Verse is going to be, I think, a big part of that. He was a big part of what the Rams accomplished last year. I think in the case of the Rams, you know, they are all in. And it makes a ton of sense for them to not only look, they, they own. They not only got Miles Garrett, I think we forget, they also got Trent McDuffie this off season too. So it's, it's. It's a pretty good defense that just got a lot better. And I think the, the storyline for us is at least what's coming out of Los Angeles is now they may delay the extensions for some guys, the biggest one being Pukinakua, who they may have delayed anyway because of what happened this off season. But do we have maybe a contract situation to worry about now if Naku is gonna, you know, hey, I did everything I was supposed to do, rehab, all this stuff, and showed up for OTAs pay me. So it's just something to keep an eye on for training camp.

[A]

Okay, there's another. Yeah, something to keep an eye on. Yeah, go ahead.

[B]

From, from projections guy. I think the biggest question is, does Miles Garrett going from Cleveland increase the likelihood of a higher pass rate for Cleveland or increase the higher the likelihood of a higher rush rate for the Rams? Like, he's a pretty elite defensive player, maybe the most elite defensive player. If the Rams defense is just that much better, do we get more second half rush attempts for the Rams?

[A]

It's a good point.

[C]

We've also rarely seen Miles Garrett playing with the lead. He's been off the field a lot. Now he's going to be on the field a lot.

[A]

Yeah, because those Browns teams with Garrett, not so much last year, but I mean, they, they would run the most plays in the NFL or up there. They throw the ball a lot. Looks this Just a quick schedule for the Rams, San Francisco Giants, both at home. Oh, no, no, sorry. San Francisco is in. Where is that?

[B]

Australia.

[A]

Australia, Right. San Francisco home game in Australia, Giants at home. Denver and Philadelphia on the road, then Buffalo in week five. That's a fun schedule, man. So should be some really competitive games there. And. And almost all of their games are prime time this year because they have so many prime time games. All right. And the super bowl, by the way, is in Los Angeles. And Sofi Stadium. Bo, Nick's not expecting them.

[C]

If they're healthy, who's beating them? Yeah,

[A]

I mean, they've got to have the best team on paper in the nfc.

[B]

NFL.

[A]

NFL. Do they have the shortest odds now? Are they the favorites?

[B]

I don't know. Because Seattle's in their division is the only thing that might hurt the odds a little bit, but I know they're odds. I didn't see. I haven't seen this morning where they're at.

[A]

Okay, we'll look it up. Bo, Nick's not expected to participate in OTAs. Broke his ankle in the playoffs, the AFC Championship game, so he's still coming along there. Daniel Jones, though, was cleared for seven on seven.

[C]

I believe he broke it in the round before.

[A]

That's right. That's right. And the Giants. Heath, what do you think about the Giants just getting all those old receivers? They signed three guys yesterday. They signed Odell Beckham, Braxton Barrios, who I assume will be a special teams player with Gunner or Shelski out for the year, and juju, Smith, Schuster.

[B]

I think juju is very fun and it's. It's good that he gets to stay in the league then. Incredible job of catching, like 70% of his targets in Kansas City. Hopefully he can keep that up and be. Be a chain mover when the Giants need it.

[A]

They also have Darnell Mooney, and they brought in Calvin Austin, and they drafted Malachi Fields, and they brought back Isaiah Hodgins and they have Derek.

[B]

Half of these guys are not going to be on the team.

[A]

Yeah, it's perhaps the three that they signed yesterday won't be on the team. Right.

[C]

Who are. Who are the six receivers? Adam, who do you want it to be? Or who are the five with neighbors?

[A]

Yeah, neighbors. Mooney.

[B]

Well, neighbor is going to be on PUP the first four weeks, so you can have another one.

[A]

Okay. Mooney, Slayton. I like Hodgins, I would say Austin Barrios.

[C]

You know what he's doing.

[A]

Beckham and Barrios, because he'll be the Special.

[B]

Fields is 100.

[A]

I'm sorry. Get rid of.

[B]

He might be the number one guy week one.

[A]

I would. I would say Fields over Beckham. Beckham's with 34 or something. He's super old. Has done nothing in recent years.

[C]

Might be over Hodgins.

[A]

Yeah. 100. Yeah, definitely. I. Fields is way at the top of the list. I don't know why I forgot about him, but. Yeah, but Beckham. I think Beckham could be like, Hopkins was on the Ravens last year. Have a few big catches here and there, but not gonna do much. Heath, what's coming up on FFT Dynasty. And then we'll talk about today's YouTube poll.

[B]

Yeah. In, like, just over an hour. We've got a one man mailbag. And then special alerts because you don't ever talk about it. Un. It's your show that does this. But FFT Dynasty will be making their CBS Sports Network debut on Friday and doing a reveal of the new updated top 12 at each position for June. And Dan's coming on. So I thought it was fitting because all the trouble I've given Dan recently. Let's. Let's. Let's give Dan this opportunity to just kind of tear my rankings apart.

[A]

I love that it's just you and Dan.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Oh, wow, man. Nobody respects my Dynasty chops at all. I didn't get invited.

[B]

Well, okay. In fairness, and you do get invited on the show sometimes. Dave was giving me a hard time. I. I generally try to spread the wealth around. But you. You have talked repeatedly about how much you hate your dynasty leagues, and you, like, just been tanking for the entirety of the time that I've been in Dynasty leagues with you.

[A]

Okay. That. Neither of those things are true. I don't really like being the commissioner of the Dynasty league, but I like the leagues, and I'm only tanking in one league. It's. You wouldn't know that just by looking at it.

[C]

But you're taking him both. What are you talking about?

[B]

You're definitely taking in both. If you try to win and trade away your 20, 27 first in either of those leagues, you were insane.

[A]

No, I wouldn't do that. But I might. But I might set a lineup and try to win. That's all. You know, set a good lineup. Okay, so the YouTube poll today, Heath, was inspired. What. What inspired you this morning, Heath?

[B]

I was. I was mowing at about 7:45 this morning, and actually, it may have hit me when I was using the. What I call the weed eater. I think they call it an Edger in Florida, but maybe it's the same thing, but no, I just thought, I wonder if Adam Azer's ever done this.

[A]

Mow the lawn.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

Yeah. So the YouTube poll is. Let's. How many times has Adam Azer mowed his lawn? Over. Under 0.5 right now. Under has two thirds of the vote. I voted, and I will tell you that the answer is either I've never done it, or I tried it once and decided to never do it again. So that's what you all have to

[B]

do, but you're not sure. Oh, okay, right.

[A]

I've never done it. I definitely have not done it multiple times. So it's either one or zero.

[B]

And you never had to do it as a kid?

[A]

No, no, I never do it as a kid. Jamie, have you ever mowed your lawn?

[C]

My own, no.

[A]

But you've mowed someone else's lawn.

[C]

So I was visiting a friend in Massachusetts, and he was mowing his lawn, a big lawn, and he's like, you've never mowed your lawn before? He's like, do you want to. Do you want to do mine while I'm doing it? And I said, sure. So I dumped on the big thing and the big mower, and. And I did it for a little bit, and I was like, yeah, this is. I'm good.

[A]

All right, so we'll see. We'll check it.

[C]

45. Come on, man. You can't do it that early

[B]

in my neighborhood. It's fine.

[C]

Oh.

[A]

Oh, yeah, that is. Oh, that is mean. Yeah, it's too loud.

[B]

And I have an electric mower, so if I'm not making any noise.

[A]

Okay. All right, let's get to the show here. Regression candidates. We start out with a team. A team. Look at, I don't know, looking at teams and not players. We will get to some players, but in terms of plays run, Heath wants, by the way, Heath came up with the. Basically the entire show today. The poll, the. The topic. Raiders, Dolphins, vikings, all below 955 plays. Last year, Raiders, Dolphins, Vikings ran very few plays. The Cowboys, on the other hand, ran 1120 plays, most in the NFL. So when you look at the Raiders, Dolphins and Vikings all being below 955 plays and all having different quarterbacks this year, you know, how do you project their play volume?

[B]

Well, and two of them having different offensive coordinators or play callers this year, I just think for it's. It's worth noticing because that league median last year was about 10:53. So these teams all basically ran 100 fewer plays than every team in the NFL. And offensive plays turn into fantasy points. So it's not a huge difference. And some of these, a couple of these teams may be towards the bottom again, but they won't be this far below average. And the Cowboys probably won't be first at 11:20. They're probably going to have a few. And that may be a problem if Lamb and Pickens are both healthy all year because they're not going to have quite as many pass attempts probably.

[A]

I looked at the last seven years and see the correlation between teams that were top 10 in plays and where they ranked in points per game. And I guess to sum it all up, you don't see a lot of bad offenses there. Not all of them are great offenses. But the worst offense last year that was top 10 in plays was the Chargers offense, which finished 18th in scoring. Now the year before that, the number one team in plays run in 2024 was Cleveland. This is unbelievable. They had the most plays and the fewest points, but that's pretty rare. Usually you have at least average or better offenses that are high in play volume. And, and I would think the Cowboys will be up there again. Heath. But 1,120 plays is quite a lot.

[B]

Yeah, there weren't quite as many outliers on the top end as there were on the bottom end. Okay, that's like before or five plays a game difference, which does matter.

[A]

Are there any play callers that you, that you look at and go that they can run a lot of plays?

[B]

Well, one of them's gone. Cliff Kingsbury was always that. I think, I think Ben Johnson for sure. In Chicago, they were second last year. They were always towards the top of the league. And then like Pittsburgh was 28. That's not really a play caller thing. In fact, we've got kind of a competition there because Aaron Rodgers generally uses the entire play clock and his teams have a low number of plays and Mike McCarthy's teams generally have a high number.

[C]

Well, you could check what they were like together. The end of the packers tenure was really when Rogers started doing this the most.

[A]

Yeah, I would say, I would say Kellen Moore, right. Is a guy who runs a lot of play. Yes.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

Saints were 10th last year. I think he was with the Eagles the previous two years and they were third and seventh in play volume. So that's a, that's another, you know, point in the Saints direction.

[C]

Well, the Ravens are going to be interesting because you have a guy that's coming from Ben Johnson's coaching staff and Sean Payton's coaching tree. And so that's a team that we're not used to seeing run a lot of plays or at least historically be fast. And they probably will be faster under, under Doyle for sure.

[A]

Yeah, I mean he's mentioned the Raiders, Dolphins and Vikings. The Ravens were next fourth fewest plays in the NFL last year.

[C]

And I wonder if the Vikings get a little bit more uptempo just because you have a veteran quarterback versus a guy that was clearly learning on the fly.

[A]

One of the things that. Well, yeah, also, I mean just staying on the field is going to help you run plays.

[C]

Right.

[A]

And just have a better offense. And I go three and out. I wonder who led the league in three and out percentage last year. Let's find out. It was the Raiders. Vikings were 24th anyway. That is in the worst three and out percentage. Just a somewhat off topic question. We talk about tendencies. Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers. Rogers slow. McCarthy likes to push the pace a little bit. I don't think Mike McCarthy's offenses with Dallas ever ranked higher than 18th in running back target rate. And if you draft Jalen Warren, you really are really hoping for a lot of talkers. And Aaron Rodgers throws to his running backs more than basically any quarterback in the NFL. What do you guys think is going to happen there? You think they're going to be a high running back target volume team the Steelers?

[C]

Well, I mean you look at the, the Cowboys teams that he had and he had pretty good receiving cores there.

[B]

So I was just pulling this up in 2018 they were 9th in offensive plays run. But I thought I had their running back target rate and I don't.

[A]

I do. They're running back target rate 19th, 19th, 26th, 18th, 28 in five seasons with Dallas. It doesn't mean that.

[B]

No, I was looking at the last time McCarthy and Rogers were together.

[C]

Oh. Oh, okay. Okay. Sorry.

[A]

All right, well that's a little bit of a. Of an aside there. We'll get back on topic after we take this break. We'll talk about touchdown regression for Matthew Stafford. Trevor Lawrence's rushing touchdowns. Drake Mays yards per attempt. We'll be right. We'll be right back on fantasy football today. Tyler redick here from 2311 Racing and Bubba Wallace. You know what's the worst part of a race? A rain delay.

[B]

Sitting around waiting for the track to dry.

[A]

Dull.

[C]

But instead of waiting, we hang out with Chumba Casino, social casino, slots, bingo, solitaire. Plenty of fun to keep us entertained.

[A]

So why let a rain delay slow you down. Play [e-mail] let's Chumba sponsored by Chumba Casino. No purchase necessary. BGW prohibited by law 21 terms and conditions apply.

[D]

At DSW, we ask the important questions like what shoes are you going to wear? Whether you're prepping for wedding season, festival season, or just planning the ultimate vacay, the right shoes can make or break an rsvp. So own the moment. You've got big plans and we've got just the shoes at the perfect price, of course. Get ready to get ready with Designer Shoe Warehouse. Head to your DSW store or dsw.com today and let us surprise you. Real Skin Results Start with one daily ritual Meet daily Microfoliant from Dermalogica. This iconic exfoliating powder activates with water to gently polish away dullness and uneven texture. It leaves skin instantly smoother and more luminous while supporting your skin barrier. Formulated with professional expertise to deliver visible results daily, even on sensitive skin. Discover your healthiest skin today.

[A]

Visit dermalogica.com and use code smooth at

[D]

checkout for an exclusive gift with your $65 purchase.

[A]

So let's get into these quarterbacks here and Matthew Stafford, one of the league MVP, one of the best values in fantasy last year 46 touchdowns. He's had two seasons like this with the Rams won the super bowl and one of them and last year had a great season but fell short. All right, so what are you looking at in terms of touchdown regression for Stafford Heath?

[B]

Well, I think the place you can start is you brought it up. He had a 6.8% touchdown rate in 2021. The next three years were 3.3, 4.6 and 3.9. Now Devonte Adams helps so maybe it stays a little higher than that. John Daigle on Twitter put out a very good chart shows a 15 quarterbacks that have had a 7% touchdown rate or higher since 2000 no in the last decade. So 15 QBs, they averaged 4.4 fewer fantasy points the following year.

[A]

Wow.

[B]

They averaged a dip of a 2.2% touchdown rate and a dip of 4.4 points in fantasy points.

[A]

And sorry Heath, is that four or six point per passing touchdown lead weeks?

[B]

Oh, that's a good question. It does not. The the answer does not say so I would guess based on what majority of the Twitter fantasy football world plays it was four but it could have been six. But I was going to say like he threw 597 passes so 5.5 rate that'd be a, a 2% dip would be 33 touchdown passes next year.

[A]

If Stafford lost 4.4 points per game from what he did last season, he'd probably be a streamer in, in four point per passing touchdown leagues. He'd still be a starter in six point for passing touchdown leagues.

[C]

I think it's built into his early average job position though. I mean you're seeing it where he's getting selected. I think if anybody was expecting him to replicate this or come close to it, we'd be ranking him and drafting him as a top five quarterback.

[A]

Yeah, but I don't even know where do you think he was drafted last year.

[C]

No, he was fifth, you know, post 15.

[A]

Yeah, right. So that's the thing. It's like I understand that Matthew Stafford is a late round quarterback, you know, borderline top 12 quarterback in ADP and whatever. The question is, should I, should I even bother with him or should I take a shot on Trevor Lawrence? We're about to talk about Malik, about Malik Willis.

[C]

I think that's a good pairing though.

[B]

Yeah, if I was gonna throw a dart like that, I'd probably do Carla Fair.

[C]

Right.

[A]

Here's where he's finished as per game in five seasons with the Rams. I'll go four point per passing touchdown leagues first on a per game basis, Matthew Stafford has been number 11, number 30, number 17, number 27 and number one on a six in six point, number eight, number 30, number 17, Number 26 at number one. It's only had two good seasons in five years. It's a lot of injuries to cup and Puka and all that. Last year everything fell into place.

[C]

He's played through back injuries, including last year.

[A]

Okay, Trevor Lawrence is rushing touchdowns. Heath, what do you have to say about that?

[B]

What did he have nine last year?

[A]

Yeah, 29 from passing and nine rushing.

[B]

And I, I think he had, if you look at it, he had like a lot more rush attempts, but two years ago he only played 10 games the year before. But two years ago he had 70 rush attempts and scored four touchdowns. Last year he had 82 rush attempts and scored nine. I, he may be a higher touchdown rush rate guy with Liam Cohen. I think Baker may have had a good year in terms of rushing touchdowns when Cohen was his coach, but he's going to lose at least a point per game from rushing touchdowns.

[C]

So Baker did run well with Liam Cohen. It's a small sample size obviously just two years of what he did with his quarterbacks. But in the one year with Cohen calling plays, Baker set A career high in rushing yards and rush attempts. He had three rushing touchdowns. So it wasn't like the same level of finding the end zone. But I think most people would assume that Trevor Lawrence better athlete, he ran more in college than Baker did, so not a surprise that he's a little bit better with his legs. But yes, nine rushing touchdowns is hard to anticipate or replicate. I think you just know that that's kind of a staple, I think of what this offense will lean on. And the positive would be is when he turns around behind him, it's not Travis ETN anymore. It's Basil Tootin and Chris Rodriguez. So, you know, he may have more design runs, they may give him some more opportunities, they may be more design runs in, in the red zone. And you know, for all of the, the hype that we've heard about Parker Washington, there's been a lot of positive buzz about Brian. I don't think Chris Rodriguez has practiced so far in OTAs. Right. Something to keep an eye on is that I, I don't know if it's injury, he's just not there. I, I didn't really give it a definitive answer on, but the fact that Tutin may be, you know, taking the lead in, in the, in the running back race doesn't mean that Chris Rodriguez not gonna have a roll once training camp comes around. But just in terms of Trevor Lawrence, like, they may need him to do that. They may need him to be a little bit more of a, of a presence with his, you know, rushing. And I think that's a boost to his fantasy value. But again, if you're expecting nine rushing touchdowns, you know, I think you probably cut that in half at best.

[A]

Yeah, he's been three, four and five, I think the previous three seasons. Not necessarily in that order, but maybe you ballpark it at four rushing touchdowns for Lawrence. Yeah, he had four one yard rushing touchdowns last year and the rest were from 4, 6, 7, 10, 15 yards away. Seven.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

I don't know. All right, so that's what. But I will say in his last 10 games or last seven games, he was the number one quarterback in fantasy. He averaged 31 fantasy points per game and he was on Pace for 44 passing touchdowns. So he really, he took off in the last seven games of his season. And even if the rushing had gone away because he was, he was killing it as a rusher too. On pace for 432 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. But even just the passing numbers, 4507 yards, 44 touchdowns, 10 picks, number one quarterback per game in the last seven games of the season. You know, the schedule was pretty damn easy. But he also remember, went to Denver and he scored 37.2 fantasy points in Denver. He lit up Buffalo well, he had some picks, but 25.4 fantasy points against Buffalo in the playoffs. They were fourth best against quarterbacks. I don't know, Jamie, what do you make of it? He's had great stretches to end seasons before. Was this different?

[C]

It feels different because I think the coach is different and I think the weapons are certainly different. You know, when you look at it and there's a comment I missed, who said it, that the Jags did next to nothing this off season or did next nothing to improve. I don't know if that's fair, you know, because they did make a significant move in the middle of the year last year, the trade deadline to get Jacoby Myers and then extend him. And then the biggest thing really is getting Brian Thomas healthy. And he was interviewed yesterday, the day before and said something like, what's the difference? He goes, I don't have any pain when I'm running right, you know, so him healthy is, is a huge difference maker. Again, positive reviews so far this, this off season. Take that for what it's worth in shorts and T shirts and, you know, playing against air. But Parker Washington getting better and more involved, healthy, Brian Thomas getting Travis Hunter on the field, I know that makes us a little bit of a conversation, a little bit concerning because of what it can mean for the rest of the receiving corps, but that's clearly a weapon for Trevor Lawrence. And so with the run game maybe a little bit suspect, it could be fine. You know, again, Tooten and Rodriguez could be a great duo and, and still perform at a very high level. I just think looking at Trevor Lawrence, like you asked us, Lawrence versus Stafford, again, looking at their body of work and what they did last year, the easy answer should be Stafford. But I think if you're projecting it out, Lawrence is in a better spot and to me has a higher ceiling. I think Heath probably agrees. So, you know, the upside for Trevor Lawrence is fantastic. The value for Trevor Lawrence is fantastic. And again, when you start to get past I think those top five or six quarterbacks, there's a huge list of guys that you can say could be 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, whatever. You compare Lawrence with somebody and still feel good about your quarterback duo, and then if that sucking some, that second quarterback doesn't produce, you just ride with Lawrence. If he's Playing well. So yes, there's, there should be a little bit of concern because he's done this before, but I think everything is just sort of moving in the right direction for Trevor Lawrence heading into 2026.

[A]

Heath, let's talk about Drake May. Yards per attempt. He was just amazing last year and 8.9 yards per attempt with a 72% completion rate and if not the highest, maybe the second highest ADOT in the NFL. So yeah, it just, it was a pretty incredible year for Drake May. So there'll be some regression in yards per attempt.

[B]

Yeah, yards per attempt and most likely touchdown rate. He had a 6.3% touchdown rate. Few quarterbacks do that year over year. Now maybe he's one of the guys that does, but even Josh Allen's only been over six twice and regressed from that. But I think Josh Allen's a good barometer to use because he's. His career high in yards per attempt was last year at 8.0. So we saw Mahomes have an 8.8 and I think fell a half a yard. The next year lamar had an 8.8 and then fell a half a yard. The. There's a good chance, I think, I think I haven't projected at 8.0 yards per attempt, which, listen, if he throws 500 pass attempts, that's about 500 fewer passing yards. Now we think generally speaking, if the yards per attempt go down, the pass attempts will go up a little bit. I just, I wouldn't, we had the May versus Lamar thing yesterday and I wouldn't want people to think, well, Drake Majors got A.J. brown, he's going to be even better.

[A]

I think he will be better. And I don't think it's. I think it's because of A.J. brown, but I think they lost three games last year. Well, four if you want to count the super bowl. And there are three losses he threw or four losses. 46, 37, 23 and 43 passes. Their schedule is so much harder this year.

[B]

Well, some of that is that they're playing better defenses so they're probably going

[A]

to score fewer points maybe, but I just think they're going to throw more. And they just traded for A.J. brown. I 100% agree that the yards per attempt will go down. I'm not disputing your, your aggression. I just think the attempts are going to go off enough. And I think he threw 31 touchdowns. He feels like a guy that could throw 35 to 40 touchdowns. To me it's ambitious. So can Lamar Jackson, by the way Jackson's done it twice. I would take Jackson over May, but I think I don't like. He wasn't even that great for fantasy last year. It was just the passing in general wasn't great. What he's. What do you average? 24 points? 20, 24 points on the nose. That's, that's a really good season. But that's one of, that's one of Lamar Jackson's kind of bad seasons, you know, So I don't know. Jamie, I'll give you 24 fantasy points and six point per passing touchdown. Leagues over, under for Drake, maybe over Heath.

[B]

I mean, I would. I've basically got it as a push. I think I have him at 23.7 in my projections. Okay.

[A]

All right. I guess that's just what I meant. And I feel like he'll be better. I just, I look at that number 24, 24 points per game. I just feel like he can do better than that because he's so damn good and he just got brown. But I wasn't disputing your aggression argument at all.

[C]

No, I think, I think you're. You nailed it. At least for me. You know that the, the regression will be there, but the fantasy production will be a little bit better because the volume will be better.

[B]

And I think I just have the volume and the regression basically canceling each other out.

[A]

Fair. All right, Christian McCaffrey and Breece hall, we'll talk about these running backs here. McCaffrey had 129 targets, 102 catches. Last year. He had a 25.2% target per out run rate, which was high, high for his San Francisco days, not for his Carolina days, but high for San Francisco. So you think the targets will regress? 129 targets for MC.

[B]

Yeah, he had 83 and 16 games in 2023. He has one season in his career with more than 129 targets. And. And teams just don't throw the ball to running backs that much. They had a weak receiving core last year and at times all of them were hurt and he was their number one wide receiver. They went out and got Mike Evans, they went out and got Christian Kirk, they went out and got Stribling and hopefully he's still amongst the most targeted running backs. But I think it matters more than people realize because rushing wise, it was pretty much just volume. Like they, they were not effective for a large portion of the season running the football and he had a success rate below 50%. So if he's at 90 targets, then that could be a. Even if he stays healthy, that could be a really big ding in his production.

[C]

I don't know if you can do this quickly, Adam, but what were his targets with Mac Jones versus Brock Party?

[A]

Yeah, I can do that. I don't think it was a big difference, but I will, I will take a look.

[C]

I mean, look at anything you're betting, betting on or against McCaffrey. Games played is a big thing too, here. You know, last time we saw him coming off this workload, and this is worse, he was over 400 total touches in the playoffs. 2023, played four games. 2024. He has 450 total touches in 2025. Like, that's incredibly scary, right?

[A]

You want a scary number? Oh, wait, I'm sorry.

[C]

I was.

[A]

I have to. I have to do it. Just in 2025, 2025, he had a 22% target share with Brock Purdy, and I think it was a little higher with Mac Jones. 22 with Purdy, 25 with Mac Jones up and down.

[C]

Yeah, I think he'll be better with Purdy from that standpoint in terms of overworking him in the passing game because Purdy will not necessarily panic and dump the ball off to McCaffrey every chance he gets. Mac Jones probably will. Hopefully. We don't see a lot of Mac Jones, but I think, again, you look at age touches, receiving, core being improved, like, yeah, this is, this is a great call.

[A]

Okay. Do you think that 3.9 yards per carry. Do you think he regresses in the sense that he's just gonna be a better rusher this year?

[B]

I have a hard time betting on that with a guy his age.

[C]

I think he'll be better, but not dramatically better. I think. Also, look, the, the, the additions that Heath laid out for you are going to threaten the defense more than what they had a year ago. You know, they had no Brandon Ayuk. They had no Ricky Pierce off for stretches. KD was banged up at the start of the season. Like, this is all they had, you know, and so it was, we're going to force them to throw. And then it was Mac Jones, you know, so this was Kyle Shanahan at his best, you know, making this offense still work and making McCaffrey still be as elite as he was. But I, I think, you know, the. You mentioned the story yesterday in terms of he's going to rest in practice. They're going to rest him more this year. They'll give him more opportunities to, you know, take some time off during games. You don't continue to. And I know they do this every year, but now he's 30. Like you can't. You can't keep doing this to this guy and expect him to make it through the entire season.

[A]

All right, next up, we have Breece hall. He scored five touchdowns on 279 touches. And he, again, I said it at the start of the show, never scored more than five rushing touchdowns in a season. And he's played basically three full seasons in a row. The jets have been 30th or worse in goal line carries, which I consider the one to three yard line from that range. They've been 30th or worse in goal line carries three straight seasons. So he's. It seems like you think he's going to regress, but it seems like this is where Breeze hall lives. Five rushing touchdowns.

[B]

Five rushing touchdowns has. But there's a little bit of context there. Like his rookie year, he scored five total touchdowns on 99 targets or 99 touches. 99 targets would be great on 99 total touches.

[C]

That was what, six games, right?

[B]

Seven. Right, seven games. And he still had five touchdowns. His second year he had nine total touchdowns on like 299 touches. The year after that he had eight. Last year he had five and had a career high by 20. In terms of rush attempts, I think some of this comes just because the offense is a little bit more functional, but also, even in repeatedly bad offensive environments, he's always scored at a much better rate than this. Even though the total number of rushing touchdowns hasn't been up.

[A]

He's a tough one for me, guys. He's, you know, should be pretty much a workhorse, but he's on the Jets. Hasn't really. You guys know why? I don't have to explain the case. You know why. He's a tough one.

[B]

He's the guy I could see finishing as a top five running back and feeling like an idiot for not drafting any of them.

[C]

Agree.

[A]

What's it, what do you think his ADP is right now? Probably somewhere around RB15 or a little later.

[C]

I think it's probably closer to 1718.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

I've got him at 15 of my

[A]

projections and it's like that's, that's. He finished his RB21 last year with only 30, with only 36 catches in 16 games. They're going to throw more because they don't have mobile quarterbacks. Right. So I feel like how could he be worse than last year when he was RB21?

[C]

Yeah, I agree. I think I, I think Frank Reich is, is a plus compared to what they had last year. So that's a, that's a step in the right direction. I mean look, they, they spend a lot of capital on offense, you know and no matter what you think of Geno Smith, he's better than what they had a year ago. And so you know, you, you bring in slightly upgraded quarterback, much more upgraded receiving core and pay Breece hall. That's a big part of this too is they paid him. You know, they could have easily played this out and said okay, we're just gonna go to 20, 27, we'll get our quarterback then and see what we feel about the, the running back situation. So I, I think the fact that they committed to him is, is pretty remarkable. Then you look at the guys that he's being drafted around and so like you can, you can clearly make arguments for and against him versus Javante Williams, him versus Quinshaw, Judkins, him versus Cam Scatter Boo. Him versus probably Trevion Henderson is in this range. You know, him versus yeah.

[A]

But you know what Jamie, I'm going to blow your mind because in on fantasy Pros he's going 29th and he's going, he's RB14 at our, at 29th overall in our leagues he's going 22nd. Not that many drafts in draft sharks. He is going 35th but he's going you know consider not considerably but he's going ahead of ETN and Javante. He's more in that those wide receivers that we talked about yesterday, you know, the McMillan's and the T. Higgins of the world. He's. He's going just barely behind Derrick Henry. I'm kind of surprised like Breeze hall is around three pick and I feel like you guys like him in round four, right?

[C]

Jamie, late round three, early round four. You know, so 35 is fine. You know that's, that's about the place I would start to look. 22, no way. You know, there's no chance I would be taking Breeze hall then. And even what he said, like I'd rather feel like an idiot and, and miss out that he's a top five running back than draft him at the end of round two. Because you have to build in the, the flaws here. Again it is still Geno Smith. It is still a receiving core that's going to be a work in progress. It is still an offensive line that's a work in progress. Frank Reich was out of the league for a reason. So while all these I think are Upgrades. There's still a lot of question marks. So if you want to say that he's RB15 in round three. Okay, I could buy into that. If late round three. If you want to say that he's RB13 late round two, you know, that's putting him in Jeremiah Love and, and Derek Henry range. Like he could be better than him. I, I wouldn't discount it, but I still think that there, there's reason to be a little bit pessimistic and, and to bring up the touchdowns. You know, I, I'll go back to a guy I was very high on last year, Braylon Allen. You know, that's a physical running back that, you know, the coach wanted to use, was talking him up quite a bit. Who knows what it was for, if it was, you know, contract or, or motivation or whatever. They were all in on Braylon Allen. It sold me on Braylon Allen at his cost. And now you have Braylon Allen back after missing most of the season last year. Does he take away those touchdown opportunities? Which could be frustrating.

[A]

Which reminds me, I'm a dumbass for two reasons. One, someone emailed. Yeah, and I don't mow the lawn. I don't know what the poll was, but I've never done that. So it was under 0.5. Anyway, I was wrong when I said of last month that Braylon Allen hurt himself on his goal line carry. Someone pointed out to me, emailed me and said he heard it on special teams shortly after. I guess that goal line carry. But also I was looking at non PPR on our website and Breeze hall was 22nd there in full PPR. He's 30th in between Kyren Williams and Jeremiah Love. So no one's taken him in PPR leagues with a second round pick. All right, we'll talk about Devonte Adams, JSN, Brian Thomas Jr, Trey McBride, Dallas Goddard and Tucker Kraft. And we come back on Fantasy Football today.

[C]

Yo, it's J USO from WWE and I'm Jimmy uso. Chumba Casino and WWE are hyped for the biggest event of the summer, SummerSlam. I know I can't wait. There's nothing better to do while we're waiting than playing Chumba Casino. Sign up today and you could win a VIP experience with Chumba Casino and WWE for SummerSlam. So what are you waiting for? Play Chumba Casino and enter for your chance to win. Let's chumble. New purchase necessary PGW Group void Weber inhibited by law CTS and CS21 plus sponsored by Chumba Casino.

[D]

At DSW, we ask the important questions like what shoes are you going to wear? Whether you're prepping for wedding season, season, festival season, or just planning the ultimate vacay, the right shoes can make or break an rsvp. So own the moment. You've got big plans and we've got just the shoes at the perfect price, of course. Get ready to get ready with Designer Shoe Warehouse. Head to your DSW store or dsw.com today and let us surprise you.

[A]

Well, if Matthew Stafford is going to regress in terms of touchdowns, then it's probably going to mean Devonte Adams is going to regress as well. He had 14 touchdowns in 14 games. He had the most end zone targets that I've seen since true media started tracking it. So it's, you know, bound to regress. What do you think about Adam's Heath?

[B]

I think like everybody probably knows this one, so maybe we can be shorter. But the reason I put it on there is because there is significant, like disaster possibilities. If the regression is, is a lot. Just because he averaged 53 receiving yards per game last year and he wasn't. He had his worst yards per target since 2015 and his catch rate was way down. And so if, if he scores seven touchdowns, he's not somebody that you really ever want to start.

[A]

Jamie, do you share those concerns?

[C]

Very much so. You know, the, the saving grace and this is a team that would not shock me if they add another veteran receiver because of just where they're at. But the depth chart at that position is miserable. You know, so I just did the outlooks for the Rams. You know, you're talking about Jordan Whittington and Kanata Mumfield and they drafted a receiver in the seventh round. I believe this is just a very thin group behind the top two guys. And you have Puka, who we know was great last year but has an injury history and Devonte Adams is 33. And so you could see Stefan Diggs, you could see Tyree Kill, you could see maybe Brandon Ayuk if they decide to go that route if he's released. Like there's guys out there that make sense for the Rams at this point. And so I think we'll see some additions which will take away from Devonte Adams if there's somebody of significance mostly again, if it's, if it's the Fondigs. Now they are all in on this heavy tight end package as we saw last year. And drafting Max Claire in round two speaks to that. After drafting Terence Ferguson, the Year before bringing back Tyler Higby, keeping Colby Parkinson, like they are loaded at that position from guys that can be, you know, superstar caliber. I think if Terence Ferguson was on a different team, you know, ask Jacob Gibbs, we'd be talking about him as, you know, potential breakout candidate. I think Max Claire, if he was drafted to this team, we'd be looking at him in a, in a very different light if there weren't all these other guys. So there's opportunities to just lean heavy into that and you know, to go back to the Miles Garrett conversation if they're playing with the lead and running the ball. Probably see a lot of tight ends on the field. So I think what you're looking at with, with, with Devonte Adams is can he score eight plus touchdowns, can he score 10 plus touchdowns? Like that's a big ask because if those come down as, as I think we all feel it's going to happen, it could be really problematic for him because I don't see, I don't see everything else increasing dramatically. I think he will get better in terms of, you know, you brought this up previously, like his off target rate was not great last year and he struggled a little bit in terms of, you know, connecting with Matthew Stafford at times. So that will probably be better. You know, you're more of chemistry, you're more of work, off season work, etc. But if the touchdowns significantly regress and we're talking six or seven, it could be bad.

[A]

Yeah, I think he'll probably have a lower eight out he had. Javante Adams had the highest eight out of his career last year, which probably contributed to a low catch rate. Although that's been a problem for a few years now. But I think we all see it. The touchdowns really boosted him. I do wonder. I've seen Ryan Heath do some writing on this for fantasy points. The teams that run the heavy personnel with the three tight ends. If you're a wide receiver on the field in those formations, I think it's a really good thing because you're just more likely to get targets. Right? I mean quarterbacks are probably going to throw wide receivers more than they are at a tight end. So if there's only two receivers on the field.

[C]

Right.

[A]

Would you agree, Heath, that's it's definitely

[B]

a boost for wide receivers as long as you are one of the guys on the field. I don't, I think, I guess that's a positive for Adams. I think it's a little bit concerning that last year like he played in the offense that did that all year and had his worst year efficiency.

[C]

They switched it though. They switched it mid season. Once they started running it, it was Adams on the field and then they switched it and went to Puka. Yeah.

[B]

So it may not be Adams on the field.

[A]

Yeah, well, Adams. Jamie, just to give that one stat, he 78 wide receivers had 50 or more targets. He was 70th in catchable target rate. So kind of weird. Just, just a weird bad connection with Stafford, believe it or not. Who's next here on the wide receiver list? Sorry, it was jsn. Yeah, he's good. What are you concerned about with js? Not concerned. What's the regression for jsn?

[B]

He's very good, but I mean, just kind of. I think as a rule when a player comes out of nowhere and does what he did last year, you expect some regression. The fact that he lost Clint Kubiak makes you a little bit concerned. The fact that, you know, Sam Darnold's been a bit of a mixed bag in his career. I just, I, I've got him projected for right on 18 fantasy points. That's very good. Just when you're comparing him to the best players at his position and running back, I, I'm not sure he'll quite measure up.

[A]

Jamie concerned about him. Who, you know, jsn who had just an the best year of, of any wide receiver on a low pass volume team in at least 12 years. On a bottom 5 passing volume team in 13 years actually. Any concerns?

[C]

So you both said something I think that makes sense on both ends. The loss of Clint Kubiak could be problematic for a new offensive coordinator who's coming in with a background of, of running the ball. You say it was a low volume passing attack. Adam? I think that's where the change happens and that's, I think what benefits. Jason. They just lost their two best running backs and they bring in a guy. They bring in two guys. One has been a career backup and Emmanuel Wilson, the other was a backup in college. Will they have the same success running the ball? I don't think they will. I think we're going to see them throw the ball more. To what extent? We'll find out, but I think we see more volume then you look at what this receiving core looks like. Well, does Rashid get better with a full off season in the system or is he just what he is? He's a, you know, sacrificial X and a guy that's going to play on special teams and do a lot of things in the return game. Cooper cup is aging by the second. He's 33. Did not look very good last year until the end of the season. And you know, maybe that's something that carries over to this year. Maybe Tory Horton can stay healthy and they get more production out of that spot. And we know that they have multiple tight ends that they can use as well. You know, we didn't see anything from Elijah Royal last year, who was the second round pick for them. So we could see a little bit more production from that spot. I think JSN is clearly their guy. And not just clearly their guy, clearly their offense at this point because losing Walker and Charbonnet could just absolutely be disastrous for this entire team. So regression. Sure. He could certainly take a little bit of a step back. Dramatic step back. You said 18 points per game, Heath. I, I think he's still pushing 20 and, and, and challenging to be the best receiver in fantasy.

[A]

All right, Heath, when are you taking jsn?

[B]

I think I have him at six.

[A]

Six. Okay. I'd be curious to say we're not far off.

[C]

I mean, he's, you know, fifth for me. But that's, you know, we've, I've seen drafts where he's gone first overall. You know, it's, it's not out of the realm of possibility that people love drafting receivers first over Gibbs and Robinson or Robinson, Gibbs, whatever order. And they like JSN better than Chase and Puka.

[A]

And lastly at wide receiver, Brian Thomas Jr. And Jamie, I'm glad you brought that. I should have brought that up in the news and notes. So Diane Thomas Jr. Said that it doesn't hurt to run this year. Played hurt for much of the season and I've mentioned that when everyone was healthy, Parker Washington, Jacoby Myers, Brenton strange, Brian Thomas Jr. At the end of the year, he had a super, super high adot. I think it was something like 17 yards. And they're talking about wanting to get the deep ball going this year. I really hope they don't make him a 17 yard a dot guy. It's not going to be good for him. I mean, maybe in an Alec Pierce kind of way, but not in a Brian Thomas Jr. Of 20, 24 kind of way. Heath, what are you looking at with Brian Thomas Jr. In terms of regression?

[B]

I think the biggest thing is that he just. Maybe he was talking about the toe or the foot and I think there was a shoulder at some point. I'm not sure the wrist was fully healthy. Like he was just completely beat up for of the year and Maybe he didn't handle that quite as well as he could have, but we saw the catch rate fall from 65% to 53%. We saw the yards per target fall from 9.6 to 7.8 and he earned a lot fewer targets in the second half of the season. I think after they just accepted that he wasn't healthy enough to be as good as he had been in the past. I just think he's too good to be as bad as he was last year.

[A]

Is he your favorite Jaguars wide receiver currently?

[B]

Yes. But they are all they are back to back to back.

[A]

And I know Jamie says if you want to take the upside play It's Brian Thomas Jr. Is he your highest ranked though? Jamie?

[C]

It's hard to ignore everything that just came out of the OTAs that how good Parker Washington looks. So I moved Washington ahead of Brian Thomas by one spot. They were the other way around. Now again, Thomas had amazing reports as well. And so this is to me the most fascinating receiving core for fantasy this year. To, to keep an eye on and to, to find out you know, what's good, what's going to look like because Jacoby Myers has been very productive. And then I really do think that we're going to have a Travis Hunter problem because I'll just go back to the narrative. They're getting pooped on for the trade and when you get pooped on, you try to prove that you made the right decision. Well, how do you do that? You play them on offense and you give them a lot of opportunity. And so if you're giving them opportunities, it's coming the expense of one of these other three guys, one of which they paid in a mid season trade in Jacoby Myers, one of which they may try be trying to highlight the trade in Brian Thomas who was amazing for them. But it was a different coaching staff two years ago, you know, so there's a lot of things to dissect with the Jaguars and you know, Parker Washington was a six round pick, you know, took him a few years to, you know, impress his new coach or impress the the franchise. And now it's like how do you take that off the field? So it really is something to, to, to look at here. And I think, you know you're going to take swings on, on three of these guys for sure, maybe four and you may miss wildly if you take them too soon. I just think Brian Thomas is too good to not have some level of bounce back potential. And if he does bounce back, similar to what he said about Breece hall, like, how did I not take a chance on him? How did I not try and draft this guy and. And just see what he could become or could become again? Because, I mean, you know, I was thinking about this when we had the Malik Neighbors conversation yesterday. Like when you said, what. What would it look like if he was healthy and it may have been Brian Thomas? Like, you know, what if he was bad? You know, Malik Neighbors, what if. What if he had looked so good as a rookie and then taking this huge step back? Like, Brian Thomas was so bad last year and he laid it out, all the injuries, how much without a problem, new offense, how much is that a problem, other guys, etc. But like, man, it was. It was bad for a big stretch of the season for Brian Thomas and I hope he can get back to something close to that because it would be a lot of fun.

[A]

Yeah, it's not even worth talking about right now. And I don't know that it's worth talking about at all, but Malik Neighbors actually wasn't really that good last year, except for against Dallas, which was the worst. I mean, go look at what Marvin Harrison Jr. Did to Dallas. He destroyed them on Monday Night Football. Dallas was Robinson.

[C]

The same game.

[A]

Yeah. Yeah, right, right. Russell Wilson threw 400 yards in that game. He had 12.1 fantasy points in Week 1 against Washington. He had a terrible game, 3.3 points against the Chiefs. Then he had two catches for 20 yards before tearing his ACL and meniscus against the Chargers. But he scored 37.77 points against Dallas. This is Neighbors.

[C]

It was also with our now new colleague, Russell Wilson.

[A]

It was. Well, week four was dart, right?

[C]

Yeah. Week four was dark, but that was dart's first start.

[A]

Darts first start. God, I don't have anything that rhymes with that. Oh, terrible. Yeah, yeah, absolutely.

[C]

Trey McDonald Start League neighbors need took a fart and you.

[A]

They brought out the cart. They brought out the cart.

[C]

They brought the cart.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

While eating out Pop Tarts.

[A]

Okay, I want to get through these tight ends because I want to tell you guys what I wrote in a text message before the show. It's really important. Everyone needs to hear it. Trey McBride, he thinks there's going to be some target regression for Trey McBride who had 169 target base, like 10 per game. 17 games, 169 targets since week eight of the 2023 season. That's 43 games. He's on pace for 159 targets. So led the position. We've been second in the position three straight years in target per outrun rate. Tell me about your regression concerns with McBride.

[C]

Well, I got to by the way.

[A]

What's that?

[C]

Who did you text it to?

[A]

A couple friends. Not you guys. But it's a really important text. Needs to be right there.

[C]

You text target per route run rate to friends that aren't us.

[A]

No, no, no. It has nothing to do with, with football. I just, it's off subject. I want everyone to stay tuned for the end of the show. Oh, I want to tell you what I texted and no, I don't text that kind of stuff to my friends. Go ahead, Heath.

[B]

I think you gave the. Since week eight of his second year, I, I would probably if I was going to compare I would say week eight of his second year through his third year he was on PA 152 targets. So maybe that would be my target expectation if Drew Petzing was staying. Because we've talked about it a lot. Like they just when Jacoby Brissette took over they went insanely pass heavy. They've changed coaching staffs. They drafted Jeremiah Love. I don't think there will be as many to and they led the NFL in pass attempts last year. I don't think there will be as many pass attempts in Arizona. So he's probably losing a target per game. He's Also like Trey McBride has been a touchdown regression candidate every year of his career. I believe usually it was because he was only scoring two or three. Then he went and had an insane seven and a half percent touchdown rate season that's probably coming down, I would guess two or three. So I think you got two to four fantasy points per or two to three fantasy points per game that you're losing just based on that. And then as I've talked about too much, he was in one of the most tight end friendly systems in football and he's not going to be this year.

[A]

All right. He scored 18.6 points per game last year. Trey McBride in PPR. So if he's down to 16 to 2.6 fewer per game, he's worth a pick.

[C]

Where?

[B]

Round three.

[A]

Jamie, what do you think? 16 points for McBride.

[C]

I think the bigger question though is, is what's tight end? 2, 3 and 4. He was four points better per game than tight end too. He was a hundred points better in total points than tight end too. Like that's dramatic. So if he's that much better than the field, so if he's at 16 and the next guy is at 13 or 12, like he's worth around to pick easily. I think late round two is fair. I, I actually like Bowers better than McBride. I think Bowers takes a step forward because a better quarterback play, better coaching, and McBride does regress. I share Heath's thoughts here. You know, I, I think we're looking at if, if you have a full season of Marvin Harrison and anything close to just a better Michael Wilson, plus just a better run game, like that's a big part of this also is, you know, they really looked at, you know, you talk about most pass attempts, they were terrible running, but I think there were 32 in terms of rushing yards per game, so. Or the Raiders were right there with him. But you know, you're looking at just a better offense in general. I, I think better overall offense and, and a step back in terms of what the passing game pass attempts look like. So I just think he loses a little bit here and there.

[A]

You want to hear a scary stat for Trey McBride?

[C]

Did you text this to somebody?

[A]

No. Let's go to 2024 where he, what did he have three touchdowns that year? So he had, he led the team in 2024 with red zone and green zone targets, but in the end zone it was all Marvin Harrison. Not all, but it was Largely Marvin Harrison Jr. Marvin Harrison Jr. Had 18 end zone targets in 2024. McBride had nine. McBride only caught one of those nine, which is ridiculously low. He should probably.

[C]

How many of those are at the end of the season when they were forcing the ball in to get touchdowns?

[A]

Yeah, maybe. But he had nine. And, and Harrison had 18 this past year. It was basically flipped. It was 18 for McBride and 10 for Harrison. But when Marvin Harrison Jr. Was on the field, he had, he had more than. My numbers are wrong here, but he had more than McBride. So McBride really, like Marvin Harrison Jr. Might still be the end zone guy. And, and seven of McBride's 11 touchdowns last year came on end zone target targets.

[B]

And, and you gave that 16. I, I. Not a lot under. But I would take the under if you were setting 16 as an over under for his fantasy points per game this year.

[A]

I did something. Doing something wrong. Oh, is it?

[C]

No.

[A]

So I've got end zone targets. Marvin Harrison Jr. With 13 and McBride with 6 when Harrison was on the field. But what about for the full season? It was okay. Okay. I said, I said I was just wrong about Marvin Harrison's end zone targets to begin with. Yeah. So that's insane. So 13 end zone targets for Marvin Harrison Jr. When he was on the field, only six for McBride. McBride had 11 when Harrison was not on the field. It's a big deal.

[C]

You got to take into account that we may not see Jacoby Brissette the majority of the season too. You know, they probably going to force Carson back on the field at some point and that could be good for Trey McBride. Could be awful.

[A]

How many touchdowns you think McBride scored when Marvin Harrison Jr. Was on the field? He scored 11 for the year.

[B]

Four.

[A]

Bingo. They both scored four. All right. Been very negative on Trey McBride. We still like him quite a bit, but there's a lot to consider. Dallas Goddard scored 11 touchdowns as well and he had no more than five in any previous season. So that's going to come down and I think seven by my count, seven of his 11 touchdowns were designed for him him in, you know, close to the end zone. So yeah, big, big deal there for Goddard.

[B]

Yeah. And I think there's a. You can make the case that he's going to have an increase in targets because A.J. brown's gone and maybe this is just a wash that he scores fewer touchdowns but has more production and so doesn't hurt him that bad. I would just say that kind of like Devonte Adams. There is a risk here that other than scoring touchdowns, Goddard was really pretty mediocre last year. 39 receiving yards per game, just 7.2 yards per target, 9.9 yards per cat. Career low. The Yak was non existent. First time ever below 4 yards per catch after reception and they just drafted Eli Stowers. If it might not just be touchdown regression, it might be that the touchdowns masked the fact that Goddard wasn't as good and Stowers by mid season is seeing more targets than him.

[C]

He certainly could be the case in the. So we kept referencing the three games that AJ Brown missed. Missed for Devonte Smith. Brown actually missed four games over the last two years. Smith just happened to miss one with him. So in those four games that Brown missed, Goddard averaged 16.2 PPR points per game in those four games. Now it's a little skewed because three of those games were amazing. One was a little disappointing and in two of those games he had seven plus targets. In the other one, which was last year, was the four touchdown game that Jalen Hurts had against the giants in Week 8 and got it. Scored two touchdowns but only like three catches for 28 yards or something like that. It was, it was pretty mediocre but he scored twice. So I think if you just look at what the upside is for Goddard, it's Clearly there. But you have to expect that. We're talking about a guy that sees his touchdowns come down. It's a new offensive coordinator as well. So Sean Manion may change some things. But I also think, you know, and this is something that's a. Jalen hurts positive and negative in. In this regard is like, is Jalen, who we had that whole story, reluctant to change? Does that mean he's reluctant to not rely on the guys that he's used to, meaning Devonte Smith and Dallas Goddard. So this could be a negative for Makai Lemon, could be a negative for Stowers, could be a negative for all the veterans that they brought in, and it could be great for Goddard and obviously devonte Smith. That, okay, I know what these guys are capable of doing. I know what I can get from them when things don't go my way, as he did with Kevin Petullo. I'm going to call my own plays where I'm going to do what I want to do and I'm going to lean on Goddard, Molina, Devonte Smith. So I don't know where you come out on the seat. I still think Goddard, as we discussed with AJ Brown trade yesterday, like, he's a great late round option. But if you're looking at and saying, oh, huge upgrade now because Brown is gone. Guy scored 11 touchdowns last year, 16.2 PPR points per game when Brown wasn't there, like, this could be a top eight, top five tight end. I think you're making a mistake.

[A]

Yeah, I think Heath would sign off on that 100. Tucker Kraft is our last regression candidate. His efficiency and his touchdowns. He looks a lot like George Kittle on paper. Can you keep it up?

[B]

Well, no, he. We used to call him like George Kittle light. And his efficiency has gotten to the point to where it's like insane. George Kittle, like, what if George Kittle was an alien that could not be stopped? He averaged 11.1 yards per target last year and scored six touchdowns on 44 targets. The reason that that really matters, I think if you just look at tight end fantasy points per game and then you start hearing that we think Tucker Kraft's going to be healthy. Well, Jamie was talking about if he falls to 16. George Kittle last year was 14.7, Tucker Kraft was 14.6, Brock Bowers was 14.5. It wouldn't be that hard to talk yourself into Tucker Kraft kind of being in that same class. And maybe like the way this could change is if they just throw it to him seven times a Game, which would be nice, but they haven't done that with anyone the whole time. LaFleur's been there.

[A]

Really just his career. Okay. Tucker Kraft came in the league in 2023, and he's second in yards per target behind George Kittle. He's got to be first in Yak 9.1 yards for sure. But it's every year. He does it every year.

[B]

But last year was even more extreme.

[A]

Yeah, last year was. What was his yak last year?

[B]

10.8.

[A]

10.8. It was 9.1 the year before that, 7.5. As a rookie, he's pretty incredible. I don't really find myself drafting him or Laporta just because I don't think those guys are going to get 90 targets. I mean, I don't think. I don't think they're going to get 100.

[B]

And I think it's much more likely Laporta does than Kraft because of the coach and because bill Cordo had 120 target season already.

[A]

Yeah, just. There's not really. There's not a discount for Craft. I thought there might be coming off the ACL, but he's going like 70th. Doesn't really feel like a discount to me. Does Jamie, does that feel like a discount to you?

[C]

No, but I think if he had stayed healthy and obviously continued on the trajectory he was on. We're talking about a top three tight end here in. In most drafts. And then you take into account that they took away two wide receivers and they're counting on a guy who did nothing last year to take a huge step forward in Matthew golden, plus Christian Watson, who's. Who's Watson, who's penciled in as their number one guy, has had a hard time staying healthy himself. So, you know, again, to play out your Malik neighbor scenario, if he had been healthy, like, if Tucker Craft had been healthy, like, you'd be Hearing, is it McBride, Bowers or Craft? Like, I think that would be the conversation. And Loveland would probably be fourth. So there's a lot to like about the situation. A, he's got to be healthy. B, yes, he's got to continue to perform at this level. But even if he does regress, I think that's kind of what people are looking at with him, is that he still could be pretty special and probably going to be one of Jordan Love's top targets, if not the top target in this offense. So it's a big ask. It's a big question. Again with the knee. I think, as he said, you know, if he's. If we're getting more positive result reports on this, like, his ADP may rise.

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

But we'll. We'll see how it shakes out. Like, you know, at one point, I don't know if it was rdp and a lot before Dave was doing this exercise with the drafts, but I. I know there was one site where he was tight end three, and like, no, I can't. I can't sign off on that. But I think once you get past, for me, at least the top four or five guys, I think he's in that next group with pits and likely. And I think Laporta belongs there. But, you know, debatable. Fanon, you know, with all the additions the Browns made, like. Like, he could be better than all these guys. It wouldn't be shocking.

[A]

Yeah, maybe I undersold his targets. If the packers just start throwing more, then it would change everything. And I also probably oversold his ADP. It is 70th Tucker craft on draft sharks going 70th on fantasy pro is 86th or 87th. CBS about 80th. So there you go. All right. A couple of chat things here. Has Adam ever used a power tool? A drill? Does a drill count? I've drilled.

[B]

Yeah. That is a power well.

[A]

Use a drill.

[C]

Okay.

[B]

It had a battery and it made a sound.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's very fun to use a drill. And then I did mention that Devonte Adams had the highest eight out of his career. And Eric was very surprised by this because half his catches, Eric was surprised because, you know, he had so many end zone targets. But it is true. And then I looked. I just did the math a little earlier. His ADOT was about 12.2 yards, I think. Devonte Adams, it was 14.3 yards, which is very high on anything other than end zone targets. So they tried some downfield stuff with him and didn't really work that well. Okay, you want to hear the text I sent? I want this on the record. Okay.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

I am so certain that the Knicks are going to win the championship that all I can think about is, man, I hope they close it out on their home court. End quote. They are going to win probably.

[B]

I, like Nick's fans, hate you for reading that on air. It's one thing to send that to your friend to read it on air. It was a disastrously bad take. I thought it was spurs and six. I'm going spurs in five now.

[C]

Are you going to any games?

[A]

I do not have $10,000, so I will not be going to the games? No, unfortunately, no.

[B]

If you'd mow your own line, you probably could.

[C]

Oh, more Giants news.

[A]

Oh, did they sign? Who'd they sign this time? Tyreek Hill?

[C]

No, not Andrew Miller. I think they released Jason Sanders.

[A]

Oh, thanks for watching. Listen, everybody, we'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football. Today,

[D]

Paramount pun podcasts. Are you really buying a car online on Autotrader right now? Really? I can get super specific with dealer

[A]

listings and see cars based on my budget.

[D]

You can really have it delivered or pick it up. I think kid is walking up the slide.

[A]

Really? Autotrader, Buy your car online? Really?