← Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today
What the Heck Happened!? Analyzing the Biggest Busts of 2025 (04/06 Fantasy Football Podcast)
01:07:16
Loading summary
Transcript235 lines
- [00:00]
Adam
You know how during tournament season there's always that one game you absolutely cannot miss? Whether it's a buzzer beater in the men's bracket or a massive upset in the women's tournament. Having instant access right when the action heats up is everything. That's why Sling is so clutch. Get instant access to the men's and women's college basketball tournaments. Starting for just $4.99, you can catch all the action on TNT, TBS and more. So when the moments that matter happen, you're not scrambling to find a stream. And if you're thinking I want even more hoops, you you can add an extra pack to your subscription for just $1. Sling offers flexibility. No overpaying, no over committing their flexible passes. Subscription lets you watch live college basketball when you want, and you can start watching in minutes. It's tournament level excitement. Just tournaments so crazy they'd be crazy to miss. Sling makes it easy to watch the games you want when you want without locking into a full subscription. Sling lets you do that. Visit sling.com to learn more. Avoiding your unfinished home projects because you're
- [00:56]
Dave
not sure where to start.
- [00:58]
Adam
Thumbtack knows homes, so you don't have to don't know the difference between matte paint, finish and satin or what that
- [01:04]
Dave
clunking sound from your dryer is.
- [01:06]
Adam
With Thumbtack, you don't have to be a home pro, you just have to hire one.
- [01:10]
Dave
You can hire top rated pros, see price estimates and read reviews all on the app.
- [01:15]
Adam
Download Today. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Wanna play? Can you believe this? No, I can't.
- [01:24]
Dave
It's time Dominate your fantasy league.
- [01:27]
Adam
Off to the races and he stays at his feet. This is going to go the distance.
- [01:31]
Heath
Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.
- [01:37]
Adam
Monday, April 6th. You know we're going to do a lot of looking ahead this month. Looking ahead to the NFL draft, which is just a few weeks away. But today we're looking back at six of the biggest busts in fantasy football from 2025. Brian Thomas Jr. Went from wide receiver 14 per game to wide receiver 46 per game. Justin Jefferson was wide receiver two overall, wide receiver six per game. Well, this past year he was wide receiver 30 per game and wide receiver 20 overall. Labakonki was even worse. Nico Collins averaged two and a half fewer fantasy points per game. Jaden Daniels, it was a mess. He only played a full snapshare in four games. And Saquon Barkley went from the number one running back per game to running back 15 per game. So today we are going to attempt to answer. Hey, what happened? Yeah, exactly. Welcome to the show. It's fantasy football today. Adam aer back from vacation. Thank you to Dave, Jamie and Heath for filling in. So not filling in, but for crushing it on the show. Good morning, Dave.
- [02:40]
Jamie
Hi.
- [02:40]
Dave
How are you? I'm glad you're back.
- [02:42]
Adam
I'm glad I'm back too. Thank you. Good morning, Jamie.
- [02:46]
Jamie
I wish you didn't leave.
- [02:49]
Dave
Yes, there you go.
- [02:50]
Adam
Mean had never had gone on vacation.
- [02:52]
Jamie
No, no. I wish that you had not gone back home and stayed here permanently.
- [02:55]
Dave
Yeah, Permanent vacation to Florida, where apparently the food is better than anywhere else in your neighborhood.
- [03:02]
Adam
And Heath, happy Easter.
- [03:05]
Heath
Yeah, you know, we had a little food discussion before and Dave had put something in the private chat wanting me to call you out in your tweet thread, which I haven't posted in for a long, long time. You've had great takes lately about saying that the pizza in South Florida is just as good as the pizza in New York. And I have to say that in my experience, there's about 75 places in South Florida that have better pizza than any place I've had in New York.
- [03:31]
Adam
Okay, now Dave put in the private chat. Nyc. I didn't say nyc. NYC is a little bit different than just New York. I got great pizza out here in Westchester. It's not quite Manhattan, but I can get South Florida pizza is as good as Westchester pizza or New York pizza spot, but not Manhattan. Anywhere outside Manhattan. Anyway, I know all the good spots. Let's get into some news and notes before we talk about those six players who did not do so well in 2025. Rasheed Rice is not going to face discipline from the NFL. That's very big news. Heath, where do you think we should draft Rashee Rice with this news?
- [04:09]
Heath
I mean, let's see if the Chiefs draft a receiver, but if they don't, he's in the conversation for a top 15 pick. When I did my first round of projections, he came out at wide receiver five.
- [04:24]
Adam
Yeah. Anyone have any different? May anyone have any objections to that? A top 15 pick for Rasheed Rice?
- [04:31]
Dave
No, not really. Especially if it's full ppr because it's pretty clear who the top target getter is going to be in Kansas City.
- [04:39]
Jamie
I guess the only pushback would be is if Mahomes is not ready early in the season and you're dealing with Justin Fields throwing to Rice for a month.
- [04:47]
Dave
I mean, I'll give you the other one, which is Kenneth Walker is way better than maybe he's ever been, and they just run more and they're more efficient that way, and they don't have to throw those short passes to Rice to make up for their shortcomings in the run game.
- [05:02]
Adam
Rashid Rice was the number two wide receiver per game in 2024. That was obviously an abbreviated season. He was the number five wide receiver per game last year. It's. He's just been so good. He scored 18 or more PPR fantasy points in five of his first six games, and he was over 23 fantasy points in four of those first six games. Struggled against Houston, struggled a bit against the Chargers, two of the best defenses in football, and then was out for the season. All right. Kyle Shanahan says he wants less wear and tear on Christian McCaffrey. Jordan James appears to be the top backup there for the 49ers. The Niners also seem to want to keep Brandon Iuk. Jamie, give me your thoughts on those. Those two. What happened?
- [05:44]
Heath
They want to keep them until nobody has any money.
- [05:47]
Jamie
Right.
- [05:48]
Adam
Okay. Well, Jamie, give me your thoughts on the. On the 49ers notes.
- [05:54]
Jamie
I mean, it makes sense to say that about McCaffrey. It's another thing to do it with McCaffrey, especially if he's, you know, healthy and playing well. So I think you have to just understand that he's going to be 30 years old. He's coming off a year with over 400 total touches. We had this in 2023 into 2024, and he only played four games, so there's a lot of risk involved with him. I do think Jordan James, at this point, you know, heading into the NFL draft, is the handcuff to target. We'll see what happens coming out of the NFL draft because they almost always draft a running back at some point in the day two, day three range. So we'll see what happens there. But James is in a good spot as of now in. In the IUK scenario. I. I wouldn't be surprised if. I would be very surprised.
- [06:39]
Adam
49ers, you'd be surprised if he were on the Niners? Is that what you said?
- [06:44]
Jamie
Yes.
- [06:44]
Dave
Yeah.
- [06:45]
Adam
All right. I mean, it seems like they were kind of giving some lip service, maybe, about him just being on the team.
- [06:50]
Jamie
But to be fair, John lynch did seem to be very honest when he said goodbye to Juwan Jennings. You know, he. He said, you know, we wish him well. We're. We're just not going to bring him back.
- [07:03]
Adam
John Harbaugh expressed some optimism about Isaiah likely being productive. Just more of the same drum beat there. Tennessee head coach Robert Salas as he loves his team's running back room right now and we'll see what they do with the fourth overall pick if they take top running back.
- [07:18]
Heath
Yeah, we've probably overlooked the idea of Tony Pollard just like being an RB2 again.
- [07:25]
Adam
Yeah, it's very possible. Ben Johnson said the Bears need to give Luther Burden the ball as much as possible. I wouldn't have been surprised if that headline had been Ben Johnson said. We need to give Colson Loveland the ball as much as possible. Roma Dunes say the ball as much as possible. So we'll see what happens there. He got a talented team. There had been some buzz earlier in the off season that DeSean Watson might be the QB one right now or it will be the QB one for the Browns. Zach Jackson of the Athletic thinks that Shoulder Sanders is the front runner for the starting quarterback job. There is some buzz about Dave, let's talk about the Eagles. There's some buzz about A.J. brown going to the Patriots. That just seems to be, you know, people connecting dots or whatever. They're they seem unlikely to trade AJ Brown before June 1st. It'll be a lot cheaper for them. But also I thought what what their owner Jeffrey Lurie said. He said, you know, we we did a lot of the same things offensively. Guess that kind of seemed like they didn't think that they would get figured out as much as they did because they were so good in 2024. But they did get figured out. So he said they're going to change things a lot on offense this year. There also was a pretty extensive feature on the on the Jalen hurts relationship on ESPN.com and how he's been a little resistant to change. And now they've got an offensive coordinator who comes from a very different, different system with a lot of under center and play action and motion and stuff like that. So anyway, they're going to be different offensively. Dave, is that going to be a good thing for the Philadelphia Eagles?
- [08:51]
Dave
It's going to be interesting to see how it plays out because they've got a first time play caller and Sean Manion at offensive coordinator and and I don't think it can get worse than what we saw last year with Petullo calling plays. But I think they need to make changes and it's got to be stuff that Jalen hurts has to not be resistant to. We'll see how it goes and we'll see who's playing for them. You know, this A.J. brown stuff just is not going away. And it got me thinking a little bit. All right, what would it take for the Patriots to get AJ Brown first round pick this year and what else? I'll, I'll pose it to Jamie and Heath. What else would you expect to be in that trade?
- [09:31]
Jamie
Second or third, at least the two, probably.
- [09:33]
Dave
Okay, so if the Patriots were to trade their first and second to Philly to get A.J. brown, couldn't they also do the same thing? And I'm looking at the draft tech trade chart, it's worth about the same as the 19th pick in the draft. Maybe the 18th pick in the draft. That's kind of the range where they could go and get a pretty good rookie in this class. Lemon could fall that far. Tyson could fall that far.
- [09:56]
Heath
Hates rookies.
- [09:57]
Dave
I know, but it's still, I think it makes more sense financially and of course long term to acquire a rookie on the cheap, relatively speaking compared to AJ Brown. 20s, whatever years old, 30, whatever years old with a big contract left. If I'm New England, I go to Philadelphia and I say, hey, look, I'll take this guy off your hands, but it's not going to be at the same type of price tag that you wanted or what, you know, other receivers have gone for.
- [10:25]
Adam
I mean, A.J. brown is going to be 29 years old on June 30th. And by the way, wasn't. Wasn't his rookie head coach for Abel? Yes, and he did have a thousand yards, but he didn't really have enough where only 84 targets as a rookie. They should have gotten him the ball a lot earlier in the season, but 1051 yards, eight touchdowns for A.J. brown, by the way, just quick little segue here. You talk about A.J. brown and yards per out run as a rookie. He was one of the very best. And obviously we'll get into this, but I think one of the reasons why everyone. Well, one of the reasons why I bought in, a lot of people bought into lad McConkey and Brian Thomas Jr who we're going to talk about on today's show, was that as rookies they were in the top 10 since the 2014 was that amazing wide receiver draft. Since then, Both Brian Thomas Jr. And Lab McConkey, they were in the top 10 in yards per out run as rookies, as was A.J. brown and Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase and all these great players. And the two guys from that top 10 list that had the worst second seasons were Lab McConkey and Brian Thomas Jr. It just doesn't seem fair. Like everything was set up for those guys to build on special rookie seasons and they both absolutely stunk. All right, Green Bay. Note here I thought it was interesting Matt LaFleur said that some players he some players were not happy with their roles last season and then that, you know, there was a report, I think the floor said it maybe there was just a report that they will strip everything down on offense in 2026. So I'm not quite sure what this means but maybe changes are in store for the packers offensively.
- [11:56]
Heath
Heath yeah, I wonder if Romeo Dobbs is one of the guys that wasn't happy with his role last season and is no longer on the team. So listen, what we would like format lafleur to do is choose a number one wide receiver and throw the ball to him 130 times and he doesn't care about that at all. It's interesting that they're going to try some different things. We would like it if they would throw more than 480 passes in a season. And that may have been an exaggeration but like it's, it's, it's a really been a really challenging environment for good passing game production.
- [12:33]
Dave
Yeah.
- [12:33]
Heath
On a large volume basis because there's low volume and they spread it around too much. So hopefully one of those two things changes or both.
- [12:42]
Adam
The Dolphins do not intend to trade Devon HN. They plan to build around Devon HN and Matthew Paris of Nola.com says the Saints would still like to address Alvin Camara's contract. I would say, correct me if I'm wrong, not a certainty that Alvin Camara is going to remain on the Saints this year. Heath, what's up on FFT Dynasty?
- [13:04]
Heath
We are starting. We have started rookie position previews. Tight ends are out there. I had Gibbs on on Friday. Matt Waldman will be on the show tomorrow for the position that matters more than any other amongst these rookies. Wide receiver part one will be tomorrow. Wide receiver part two is on Friday. We've got Rich cooling from Dynasty League football. We'll do running backs next week, quarterback the week after that. It's all happening.
- [13:28]
Adam
Awesome. All right. Must listen stuff. We're going to take a break and get into what happened with these six busts from 2025. We'll be right back. What if sports were traded like markets? Now you can put your sports IQ to work in real time with Robinhood Prediction Markets. It's not you against the house. It's you participating in a live market. You can buy or sell your positions live all game long. You use your sports knowledge in the moments that matter. Robinhood Prediction Markets changes the game. It's people moving the action so when momentum shifts, you can move with it. I always knew the game, but never had a dynamic way to apply that knowledge. Now I can actually take part. Live in a market powered by people. You're no longer just a spectator. Play by play, you decide. Trade every play with Robinhood now available across the U.S. download the Robinhood app now to begin. Futures and cleared swaps trading involve significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Event contracts are offered by Robinhood Derivatives llc, a registered futures commission merchant and swap firm. K Pop Demon Hunters, Saja Boy's Breakfast Meal and Hunt Tricks meal have just dropped at McDonald's. They're calling this a battle for the fans. What do you say to that, Rumi?
- [14:47]
Heath
It's not a battle.
- [14:48]
Adam
So glad the Saja boys could take breakfast and give our meal the rest of the day. It is an honor to share. No, it's our honor. It is our larger honor. No, really stop. You can really feel the respect in this battle.
- [15:03]
Heath
Pick a meal to pick a side
- [15:06]
Adam
and participate in McDonald's while supplies last. If we knew more about our sleep, what would we do differently? Would we go to bed at a consistent time or take steps to reduce interruptions to our sleep? With sleepscore, Apple Watch measures your bedtime consistency, interruptions and sleep duration. Then every morning it combines these factors into an easy to understand score from 1 to 100. So you'll know how to take the
- [15:29]
Dave
quality of your sleep from okay to 2 very high.
- [15:34]
Adam
Know your sleep score with Apple Watch iPhone 11 or later required. Okay, guys, you know I have Brian Thomas Jr. First in the notes, but I'll let you decide. Who should we start with? We got these six busts. Brian Thomas Jr, Justin Jefferson, Nico Lad McConkey, Nico Collins, Jaden Daniels, Saquon Barkley.
- [15:53]
Jamie
I mean, I think a couple of them are easy. So I don't know if you want to start with the easy ones or the difficult ones.
- [15:58]
Adam
Start with the difficult ones. Who's difficult?
- [16:00]
Jamie
I would say Brian Thomas. Juniors. A good start.
- [16:02]
Adam
Difficult.
- [16:03]
Jamie
Okay.
- [16:04]
Adam
Yeah, yeah. So again, he went from wide receiver 14 per game to wide receiver.
- [16:09]
Jamie
Thomas had it queued up ready. So why would you mess them? Right?
- [16:11]
Adam
Okay, there's also that wide receiver, 46 per game as a sophomore. Yards per outrun went from 2.46 in elite number to 1.51. I think one of the things you'll see with with a number of these guys, we have four wide receivers. I'm not sure if it was the case with Jefferson, but it was with the other three. His catch rate went down. Yes, catch rate went down a lot for Brian Thomas Jr. And I'm just
- [16:35]
Dave
thinking everything went down a lot for Brian Thomas Jr.
- [16:38]
Adam
But Heath, I'm just thinking back to what you said about Zay Flowers and how his catch rate went down in his second year and then bounced back up in his third year. So that's something that hopefully will happen. But. All right, Jamie, what do you think is complicated about The Brian Thomas Jr. Sitch?
- [16:53]
Jamie
Everything. I mean, you know we, we went into last year preseason with really the, the two questions being what would he do when there's, I don't know, competition for targets, just other talented players on the field. Because most of his production in his rookie season came when Evan Ingram and Christian Kirk were injured and it was obviously a different quarterback. But at least for me that wasn't the concern. I, I didn't think Mac Jones was the real, the real reason or the only reason why Brian Thomas Jr. Was unleashed. But you know, you had a new system. They bring in obviously Travis Hunter and then it was just a whole series of, of things that seemed to derail Brian Thomas from wrist injury. I think some other ailments that, that certainly popped up over the course of the. The preseason.
- [17:44]
Adam
He had an ankle injury mid season.
- [17:51]
Jamie
I, I think it was off field situation. Somebody, somebody died. If I'm not mistaken, somebody close to
- [17:55]
Heath
him died from his college team, right?
- [17:57]
Dave
Yes.
- [17:58]
Heath
Was it from his college team?
- [17:59]
Jamie
I think so. I don't remember the certain. I didn't want to obviously. Yeah. Pin it to something. But yes, some, something that he was dealing with. Sounds right. Adjustment to a new coach and then it seemed as if like he wasn't playing as hard. You know you heard some reports out of Jacksonville, just some you know, practice questions about his practice habits and, and things that went on there. And so it just sort of all compiled and then you get right as Hunter starting to peak, he gets hurt. Okay, maybe this is the jumping off white for Brian Thomas. They go and acquire Jacoby Myers Parker Washington becomes a thing. Brenton Strange obviously had his moments. The run game was more successful clearly in his year two than it was in his rookie season with Travis Etienne. And so it's now brings itself to his third year which you would hope would be a bounce back season and hope that it could get, you know, better for him. But now you have all this competition for targets when Washington looks the way that he did and Myers obviously in his resume. And now Travis Hunter is going to still whatever role he's going to play on offense but still be on offense. And Strange is now, you know, obviously a part of what they're doing. Like, it's hard to say that Brian Thomas, who I think is the most talented of the of the group, it's hard to say that he can get back to that rookie level without. With everybody healthy.
- [19:13]
Heath
Yeah, it seemed to me like he was just not anywhere close to healthy at the beginning of the year and still playing almost all the snaps and still seeing a bunch of targets and it went terribly. And then the other thing was like his adot is just probably too high. Like as a Rookie it was 11.4, which is fantastic or good 14.5 last year. It's hard to be a guy that gets a lot of targets with an A dot that high.
- [19:43]
Jamie
But that's the thing. I don't know if they wanted to be that guy. Well, I don't know. Kevin Cohen wants him to be that guy.
- [19:47]
Adam
Can I just kind of give a little context with the adot? In his first eight games before his ankle injury, before the Jacobe Myers trade, his adot was. What'd you say it was as a rookie? Heath?
- [20:00]
Heath
11.4.
- [20:01]
Adam
It was 12.9 in his first eight games. Then he came back and that's when things really went south for him because he comes back in the last six games, you've got an unbelievable passing offense where Trevor Lawrence in those six games is on pace for 4,533 yards and 43 touchdowns. Right. He's throwing 32 times a game and that's with leaving one game early, like everything's going great. Then he. That's when Brian Thomas Jr. Has a 16.6% target share and a 17.6 yard a dot. So when he came back from the injury, he was just this vertical guy. And that is crazy high. Like we can deal with 12.9, which a little high, but we can't deal with 17.6. And I fear that if he's still on Jacksonville that he might be pigeonholed into that role. Dave of being the vertical guy while Jacoby Myers and Parker Washington do their thing and Breton Strange does his thing
- [20:58]
Dave
even shorter, takes the top off the defense and that's a very valuable role in an NFL offense because opponents are going to have to pay attention to him. This is a guy who can beat you deep still. He's got that speed to do it I don't think teams are going to say, oh yeah, let him run past you. He's just going to drop the ball anyway. It doesn't happen. And I could see Jacksonville completely sticking with that. The way that that could change is if he shows improvement in the off season and they go, all right, we got to get this guy the ball on, on shorter routes as well. Or if things go south for Jacoby Myers, Brenton Strange, Parker Washington, maybe two of the three, maybe the run game as well. We know that that's definitely a question mark, but that's what it's gonna have to take. I don't think we can draft Brian Thomas Jr. On the hope that he bounces back without there being some sort of evidence that it's going to happen. And even if there is evidence, man, I, I don't know. He, he didn't practice that well going into last season. That was something that Liam Cohen talked about immediately after his best practice against the Dolphins. He had one good practice. According to Liam Cohen, up till the, the joint practice against the Dolphins, that wasn't a great sign either. So I just think there needs to be more evidence of him really turning it around, being focused, and then the Jaguars going ahead and saying, all right, this is, this is somebody who's going to be very involved in the offense.
- [22:20]
Adam
Good man. Good grief. Man, he was so good. He was so good at the end of 2024 and we overrated it.
- [22:26]
Dave
We completely overrated it because he wasn't that good. He was okay. He was good in his first, what, 10 games before the buy as a rookie and then just everything went his way after that and he was dominant.
- [22:41]
Adam
Well, he was good.
- [22:41]
Jamie
But I mean, the, the thought was here's a, here's a first round talent now getting his quarterback back, now getting what seemed like a system upgrade or at least a coaching upgrade. And it felt like, okay, here we go. You know, this is the jumping off point for maybe the next superstar wide receiver because of what he showed in his rookie season. I, I think the, the, the fascinating part of this for, for this year is which Jaguars receiver gets drafted first. I still think it's going to be him, but we'll, we'll see. Because obviously there's going to be a lot of Jacoby Myers truthers out there and there's going to be people that look at Parker Washington and see what he did and maybe especially if he gets an extension, because that's what's being discussed now after they signed Trayvon Walker to his big deal you know, Washington's the next guy that they're talking about paying, so do you take a chance on him with the hope that he bounces back? At least that's the way I'm going to approach it. You know, I'm not, I'm not looking at any of the Jaguars receivers as starters going into the season. You know, third receiver at best, you know, in terms of a three receiver league or flex. So Thomas is the one I have ranked the highest. But it's, they're almost all back to back to back, aside from Hunter, who I would only take with a late round flyer at this point. But I think if you're looking at it like Washington and Myers feel safer than Thomas, but none of those guys will do what he's, what he can do, what Thomas can do if he's, you know, right.
- [23:57]
Adam
So I, so if we'll wrap up Brian Thomas Jr here, what needs to happen for him to bounce back? We need a lower adot. We need certain. We need more target. We need more targets. I mean, the target per outreach plummeted and that's going to be hard. I mean it's going to be kind of hard on paper. So what, what is the optimism about him bouncing back to a thousand yards? Give me a thousand yards. He had 707 yards in 14 games. He was on pace for 859 yards and two touchdowns. A thousand yards and five touchdowns. Do you think he'll even get there?
- [24:32]
Jamie
It's possible. I mean, I think if he's, if he's healthy and even if he's just the deep threat, he'll get more targets than a casual deep threat because of who he is and what he's done, you know, So I would think, like to me an optimistic season is kind of like an average devonte Smith season.
- [24:51]
Adam
Okay, all right, who should we do next? Who's most complicated after Brian Thomas Jr we got Jefferson McConkey, Nico Daniels and Barkley.
- [25:00]
Jamie
McConkey or Nico?
- [25:04]
Adam
Okay, let's do, let's do Nico because you know, it's funny with Nico is he's actually finished for wide receiver 8 to 11, three straight seasons, including last year. But again, say it every podcast, last year was such a bad year for wide receivers. So he lost about two and a half fantasy points per game in 2025 compared to 2024. And that was with him. He had a lot of partial games in 2023 and 2024, which hurt his averages at his best. He is so damn good. We just didn't see it from Nico last year, Heath. Hey, what happened to Nico Collins?
- [25:41]
Heath
You know, I think part of it is because as you said, like, he still kind of finished the same place that he normally does at the wide receiver position. Part of it is the new reality in the NFL that wide receivers just aren't probably going to be quite as good with the kickoff rules and the shorter fields to scores and the longer field goals. And there's a lot of things working against them. The, the bigger thing is the touchdowns just now matter more than ever. And in 2023, he scored eight and 15 games. 2024, he scored seven and 12 games and he had six last year. In 15 games, the yardage was down about nine yards per game. I don't even know, like it was a little more than 10. I don't even know that that's that big of a fall off from just kind of where the, the wide receiver drop off in yardage was. I would say each offensive drive was probably 10 yards shorter in the NFL.
- [26:37]
Adam
Wow.
- [26:37]
Dave
There was an injury last year, right?
- [26:40]
Heath
There's an injury every year. He's never played. Like, he played 15 games last year that was tied for a career high.
- [26:48]
Adam
You know what, so this was the first year in the last three that he didn't have any games in which he played fewer than 50% of the snaps. He did a few games where he was.
- [27:00]
Heath
This was his healthiest year ever.
- [27:01]
Adam
Yeah. And what did he play? He played 15.
- [27:03]
Heath
15. Yeah.
- [27:05]
Adam
But when you look at like, you know, you know how I do it. I take out most of the time, I take out the games where he played less than half the snaps. And you look at the last three seasons, I mean, you're talking about a pace of 1656 yards, 1579 yards. And then last year, 1266 yards was his 17 game pace. I think it'd be easy to blame it on CJ Stroud when you're talking about what happened here. But the Houston passing numbers were, were nearly identical from 2024 to 2025. 2023 was a different story. They were great then, but he showed in 2024 with Stefon Diggs, with Tank Dell. You look at the first four games of 2024, the guy's averaging like 120 yards per game or something like that. So I don't really know that it was just as simple as C.J. stroud. Something was just off with their connection.
- [27:54]
Heath
But the ADOT was up two yards. Yeah, another, which again, the catch rate went down 10%. So not, not A. Not. I guess it's a strange way to say it, but from. Yeah. 68.7 to, to 59.2.
- [28:08]
Adam
Yep.
- [28:10]
Dave
May I bring up one last thing or one more thing?
- [28:12]
Adam
Go ahead.
- [28:13]
Dave
Nico, would you have been okay if he averaged 16.8 PPR points per game?
- [28:17]
Adam
Oh, yeah.
- [28:18]
Dave
That's what he averaged in his first 12. He didn't finish the year strong.
- [28:22]
Jamie
He.
- [28:22]
Dave
And neither did cj, and CJ wasn't even there for a portion of the second half of the year. Davis Mills had that run. But I think Nico Collins is still going to end up being okay. I, I know he didn't average the type of fantasy points per game that we were hoping for when we took him last year. Round one, maybe early round two, but I don't, I don't see his year as a total bust from 2025, and I wouldn't hold it against him in 2026. I think he's still, I think he can still be a top 10 receiver in fantasy.
- [28:51]
Adam
Jamie. Nico.
- [28:53]
Jamie
I think it's just keeping who he is in perspective. Like, you know, when you look at the top four or five wide receivers, you know, and Heath mentioned Rashi Rice, you know, projecting in his top five. Like, I don't think if Nico in his current situation plays as well as Rice does in his situation, we get the same type of numbers. I think Rice is better. I think Nico Collins is more of the back end of a top 10 wide receiver, a guy that you probably should be taking in the middle to the end of round two as opposed to the end of round one, beginning of round two. And it just felt like he was overdrafted last year. And I, I don't, I just think Nico Collins is just really good. Like, I don't think he's, like, he's got the chance to have some elite games and occasionally have an elite season. He's an excellent player, you know, could be better, probably with a better quarterback, but I just think he's just solid. Like, he's just one of these guys. Like, you hear me say this, you know, from time to time about, like, Amara St. Brown's like the safe guy to take in round one. Like, I feel like Nicolas is a safe guy to take in round two. You know, if you, if you go running back first, you want to go running back, wide receiver. I'm fine with Nico calls. Like, I, I think he's just, he, he. We probably just overrated him last year a little bit, you know. So, like, What'd you say? 16.8 like 16.8 feels like if I'm getting that from him, I'm thrilled. If I got a 20 point season out of him, then everything just sort of broke, right?
- [30:06]
Adam
Yeah. But okay, so I definitely overrated him because I was the highest on, on Nico Collins. But I'll tell you where I was coming from. 16.8 points per game is really good. Second round pick. You take that first round pick, you'd probably be disappointed, but not hugely disappointed. But he was better than that in 2023 and he was better than that in 2024. And then you go look at his game log. Here's a game in 2023 where he played 5% of the snaps and had one catch. Here's the game the week after. He played 47% of the snaps. Go to 2024. Played 13% of the snaps in this game. Paid 18 of the snaps in this game. Played 47% of the snaps in this game. So you look at the per route, the per route data with Nico Collins was always extremely elite. Arguably best in football top three. And then you take out these injured games. I, it's a stretch. You know, people wouldn't do that. Some people would. When he's healthy, he's, you know, before last year, he's first round talent. He's, he's, I didn't think overdrafted. I thought he was, it made sense for him to be there last year just, just wasn't as good and he stayed mostly, you know, healthier. So that was where I was coming from. I, I didn't think we were overrating him. I, I think he just had a, by his standards, a bad season. All right, well anyway, what needs to happen for him to bounce back? He still needs more targets. He only got a pace of 136 targets. He could do well, he could do really well with that. But if he's going to be elite, like really when you, your league as a second round pick, he's probably going to need 150 or more targets, I would guess.
- [31:38]
Heath
I just think with all the young wide receivers they have there, I, I don't know that I really expect that to happen.
- [31:45]
Adam
Yeah.
- [31:45]
Dave
Would you be happy with eight targets per game? That would be what, 135 or so?
- [31:51]
Heath
136 what he was on for last year, right?
- [31:55]
Dave
Yeah. And he was at 8.3 in 2024. I'm drafting him like he's going to get eight targets per game.
- [32:00]
Adam
He was at 8.3. But again he had three games that he left early with an injury. He was at right. Yeah. Nine targets per game, basically in 2024. Even more than that, about nine and a half in what I consider as healthy games. But again, if you're listening to me being like, why are you doing that? That's fine. It's just my philosophy. All right, let's get one more in here before the break. So we've done Brian Thomas Jr. And Nico Collins. Let's stick with the wide receivers, I guess, McConkey or Jefferson. Jamie, you've been deciding who goes next.
- [32:30]
Jamie
Jefferson's easy. So do Jefferson next.
- [32:33]
Adam
Oh, so we'll knock him out. A little Justin Jefferson chat here. Okay. He went from wide receiver 2 overall, wide receiver 6 per game, to wide receiver 20 overall and wide receiver 30 per game. He was even worse than that non PPR because he scored two touchdowns last year. Justin Jefferson. Dave.
- [32:50]
Heath
Hey, what happened?
- [32:52]
Adam
Justin Jefferson.
- [32:53]
Dave
JJ McCarthy happened to Justin Jefferson and it happened to the entire Vikings offense. He was not good as a thrower. It changed the way that they called plays in Minnesota, and the end result was fewer pass plays. And when there were pass plays, there were miscommunications, off target throws, everything, including drops, by the way, where that cost Justin Jefferson some big time fantasy points. And the crazy thing about last year was there were the games that he had with Carson Wentz. There were five of those games. He averaged 10 targets per game in those five games with Wentz and 16.3 PPR points per game. And we might be a little sad about 16.3 ppr points per game for Justin Jefferson. We certainly drafted him to be closer to 20 PPR points per game. But in a year, in a year where receiver targets and numbers were down across the board, 16.3 was pretty damn good. That was better, for example, than Nico. Nico was top 10 in PPR points per game. So as long as Kyler Murray can come to Minnesota and throw with better accuracy than JJ McCarthy and throw the ball as well and as many times as Carson Wentz did, I. I think we'll see a big bounce back for Justin Jefferson.
- [34:03]
Heath
I don't think we'll see Kyler Murray throw the ball as many times as Carson Winston. And that's the only thing, like, I think we get a bounce back from Jefferson. Of all the wide receivers we're talking about on today's show, he's my favorite for this coming season. I think he's a top 10 wide receiver, but not a top five wide receiver. And I think Kyler will be better than J.J. mcCarthy. But Kyler is also going to run the ball a lot and that's, he's going to scramble and that's going to cut into just the overall pass volume. Part of what Justin Jefferson had when he was in the conversation for the best wide receiver in football is that the Vikings offense was pretty pass heavy. And I don't really, I don't think it'll be as bad as it was last year, but I don't think we're going to get Kyler Murray in the top five in the NFL and pass attempts or anything like crazy like that.
- [34:49]
Dave
Aaron Jones is a year older. Jordan Mason is a year older. Does the run game in Minnesota become so good or at least good enough to take down the passing volume that we would hope for from the Vikings?
- [35:03]
Jamie
I don't think that's Heat's point though. I think the run offense will be probably. Sure it was last year because of kyler.
- [35:11]
Heath
They were 28th in pass attempts last year. It's not, it's not like the run game makes it worse. It's how much better can it be?
- [35:18]
Jamie
Yeah, and, and look, the defense is going to miss some guys, so we, we may see a step back there as well. So we may see a few more, you know, opportunities, slash, need to throw the ball more. Plus the trust that I would hope Kevin O' Connell shows in Kyler Murray versus what he showed in J.J. mcCarthy. I, I think it's just better quarterback play across the board for the Vikings and certainly will be a benefit to Justin Jefferson. If you look at what he's done throughout his career with Everybody aside from J.J. mcCarthy, it's been, been typically 16 points per game or higher. You know, you go back to the 2023 season when Kirk Cousins got hurt, you know, and, and we saw all those other guys come in. I think it's 2023, 2024 maybe when all those other guys came in and you know, he was still successful coming back from the hamstring injury at the end of the year. In terms of Jefferson, what Kyler did in the year that he had DeAndre Hopkins in his prime, the first year those two guys were together, same exact age Justin Jefferson is now. So, you know, you're looking at the, the potential of what he can still be. And I think that's why everybody should be buying into Justin Jefferson, who's either going to be a late first or an early second round pick. And it makes sense to take him in that range. Like he said, he's probably, should be drafted probably closer to 10 than he is to five. But he has that top five upside still, you know. So if Kyler is, you know, better in a Kevin O' Connell system, which, you know, aside from J.J. mcCarthy, almost every quarterback has been, then Justin Jefferson is going to have the chance for a pretty special season.
- [36:42]
Adam
Yeah. Would you take Justin Jefferson or Rashu Rice?
- [36:46]
Jamie
Rice.
- [36:48]
Adam
PPR Rice. Okay. I mean, Jefferson's no stranger to catches. You know, he could easily get well over 100 catches himself. I think one of the interesting things will be this. The guys, the last year they threw 18 touchdowns, the Vikings. But the years before that, the first five years of Jefferson's career, they were over 30 touchdowns every year. Kirk Cousins in Minnesota had a 5.6% touchdown rate. Sam Darnold had a 6.4% touchdown rate with the Vikings. By far, career high last year was 5.2. Kyler Murray's been 3.9, 3.6 to 3.94 straight seasons. So. Yeah, can he.
- [37:25]
Dave
I think that goes up.
- [37:26]
Adam
I hope so. He was. He was about 5% the two years before that. Those were two, you know, Hopkins years. But he's not a touchdown thrower typically. You know, his career high is 26. Okay.
- [37:40]
Dave
When I was making with the running backs was, I think he might be their most efficient runner. And I think that because they have inefficiency with their run game, it'll mean more pass plays called. And granted, some of those pass plays are going to end up being Kyler Murray scrambles. That's what he does. But I, I bet this team is at least top third in the league in pass place called this year.
- [38:02]
Adam
All right, we're going to take a break and we've got McConkey, Daniels and Barkley to discuss. And I have to make the decision over the next 15 seconds, do we stick with the wide receivers or talk about Daniels or Barkley? You know, Barkley, I thought when we were talking about who's the most complicated, I thought Jamie was going to say Barkley, but I was wrong. All right, we'll be right back. I'll figure it all out after this. On fantasy football today, protein is now
- [38:25]
Dave
at Starbucks and it's never tasted so good.
- [38:28]
Heath
You can add protein cold foam to your favorite drink or try one of our new protein lattes or matcha. Try it today at Starbucks.
- [38:39]
Adam
We all have that dream trip we've been wishing we could go on. But too often, life or usually price gets in the way. That's why Priceline is here to help you turn your dream trip into Reality. With up to 60% off hotels and
- [38:54]
Jamie
up to 50% off flights, you can
- [38:56]
Adam
book everything you need for your next adventure. Don't just dream about that next trip. Book it with Priceline. Download the Priceline app or visit priceline.com and book your next trip today. Go to your happy price, Priceline. Okay, Jamie, I'm going with my gut here, bud. I'm going with Barkley. I thought Barkley was shocking. Now, we could have seen this coming. Not to the degree that it happened with Justin Jefferson, but we knew there was a big risk with J.J. mcCarthy. But Barkley, I mean, everything was basically the same for the Eagles, and they. They ran it back and they just sucked.
- [39:32]
Heath
And nobody on this show was talked about more as a bust last season than Saquon Barkley.
- [39:39]
Adam
Yeah, I know, I know.
- [39:40]
Heath
He was the most obvious.
- [39:42]
Adam
Well, I. But we said, okay, well, that's. I thought we would lead with him, but. But no, yeah, no, he wasn't obvious. Wait a second. Oh, you mean preseason, right? Yeah, but we didn't think.
- [39:53]
Heath
That's what I'm saying. Like, it can't be the most complicated if he was the guy who was the most accurately predicted because people were
- [39:58]
Adam
taking him as number one overall number. We didn't think anything like this, where he'd be RB15, where he'd go from 22 points per game to 14.5 points per game. We didn't see this coming.
- [40:09]
Jamie
Well, we saw a decline, you know, to. To what degree? You know, this was probably the worst case scenario, barring an injury, you know, that. That he could fall because he stayed healthy. Because, you know, nothing really changed, per se. I mean, coordinator change, you know, that was clearly a big part of this, and the offensive line was hurt a big portion of the season. But, I mean, I, I think just in terms of what everything was on paper for Barkley going in, it was more a numbers conversation than anything else. And the numbers bared out a frustrating season for him. You know, it was, as we talked about, coming off a season with over 400 total touches, that wasn't a good number. The history of 2000 yard rushers, he fell right in line with that in terms of the fall off the. The next season. So, you know, now it's a question of where are you going to draft Barkley? Because they're basically, it's almost exactly the same situation.
- [41:05]
Adam
The question is, hey, what happened? All right, so are you saying that it was just. That his bad production was just a result of the heavy workload in 2024?
- [41:15]
Jamie
I mean there's, there's obvious things that happen again. Offensive line was, you know, beat up throughout the course of the season. The, the system was not successful. You referenced the ESPN story, you know, with Kevin Patullo and, and Jalen hurts butting heads and Jalen hurts taking a step back and the frustration in the passing game and just all the things that happened with the Eagles tougher schedule coming off a Super bowl, it was just a lot of things that fell into play with Barkley. The long runs weren't there. You know, it, it's a guy that is not going to be as heavily involved in the passing game as some of what we would consider the elite running backs, you know, so I think just when you look at at Barkley, you know, not that he needs to run for 2,000 yards to be a top five running back, but you, you know, again he's, he's getting to that point in his career where you start to have to look at the decline happening and, and how much of it is, you know, going to be. This is who he is or can he get back to, you know, being closer to what we saw in 2024. I just don't think that will happen again.
- [42:14]
Adam
Heath, you want to weigh in on what happened to Saquon Barkley? Anything you want to add or support?
- [42:19]
Heath
Well, I think also their offensive as a whole was kind of a disaster and their offensive line wasn't near as good. And so like it was a combination of those things, which is probably contributes to why the drop off wasn't just Saquon Barkley. The drop off was also most of the things around him.
- [42:37]
Adam
Dave.
- [42:38]
Dave
Well, here he comes, age 29, coming off of a year where he had 346 touches. The expectation should probably be that Saquon finishes maybe a little bit better than where he was in 2025.
- [42:53]
Jamie
That's it. The value for Staquan Barkley is going to be probably great. You know, we saw in the, it was either the half PPR or the PPR draft, the two that we did post free agency. One of those, he went with the first pick in round three. Like that's amazing. You know, with what he could still be, he was probably around running back 10 through 12. I don't remember what it was in terms of overall that position, but I think, you know, when you, when you start to look at it, he's, he's not in the discussion with Gibbs and Bijan. He's going to get drafted after McCaffrey and HN and Cook and most likely, I would guess at this point Genti, I would think Walker, I would think Chase Brown. And then it comes. I think this is where he sort of, you know, slots in with do you like him or Martin Hampton better? Do you like him or Derrick Henry better? Do you like him or. I don't know who I'm missing. Oh, John the Taylor, obviously he's going to go after. But know those, those, those guys at probably running back eight at the earliest, nine at the earliest. Like that's where I think he, he belongs in the, in the discussion. He's after some of these guys for me. So back end around two. I think is, is appropriate for him.
- [44:09]
Adam
What needs to happen for Barkley to bounce back? Jamie, you mentioned the long runs. That really jumped out to me. He had 17 carries of 20 or more yards in 2014. He had four in 2015. If you just remove his carries of 20 or more yards, just look at any carry from, you know, negative to 19 yards. He averaged 4 yards per carry in 2024 on those carries, which is by far career high. He averaged 3.4 yards per carry on those carries in 2025, which wasn't that bad. That sounds low, but that's taking out all of his long runs. But really it was just the lack of long runs. Couldn't supplement the, you know, the other production with home runs. I don't know how to predict if he's going to get back to that, but I know that, I know that he can do it. You know, I know that he's still super talented. We've seen what he can do. So he's pretty appealing in the second round. But yeah, what needs to happen. I would say what needs to happen is he needs to hit home runs. The hardest thing is it's kind of hard to predict whether or not he will. Dave, what do you think needs to happen for Barkley to bounce back?
- [45:13]
Dave
The home runs obviously would help a lot, but he had five games last year with 9.5 or fewer full PPR points. That's terrible. So he needs a little bit better efficiency. He needs games where he gets more opportunities and I think that can happen. I don't think the offense can be that much worse in terms of play calling with a first year play caller and a former quarterback in Sean Manion. I do worry about the state of that offensive line and how healthy they'll be over the course of the year. And I also worry a little bit about what that Eagles defense will be like. Will it be as good as it was certainly not two years ago. But could they be. Could they fall apart a little bit and force more second half passing game scripts for the Eagles and that would hurt Saquon in terms of total touches per game. So I think we're drafting him in the right spot. I still think he's a top. He still had over 1500 total yards last year, nine touchdowns. That's nothing to sneeze at. But when I draft him, I'm going to think, all right, I'm going to draft him with lower expectations than normal. I'm going to think that he gets around 15, 15 and a half PPR points per game. That's still really good. That's round two good. And that's what I'm going to draft him as. And if, if someone takes them sooner than that in my drafts this August, I'm gonna have no problem with it whatsoever.
- [46:29]
Adam
Okay, Jamie, we got two players left. Lad McConkey and Jaden Daniels. Who would you like to discuss next?
- [46:36]
Jamie
I. I don't think there's a very complicated situation for Daniel, so I would go McConkey.
- [46:41]
Heath
I, I would have said McConkey might have been the most. Yes, complicated.
- [46:46]
Adam
Okay. Yeah, a lot happened with La McConkey. I mean he just did not get anywhere near the amount of targets that he got. Well, actually that's not exactly true. It's the target per hour run rate though went down. The efficiency went down. He was on pace for only 113 targets. And yeah, the, the target per out run rate went from 23.4% to 18.9%. The catch rate went down about 10% with an identical ADOT. And the yards per outrun went from 2.4 to 1.4. So he, this is a, a guy who was just much less efficient after an incredibly efficient rookie season. So for Lad Bakaki, hey, what happened?
- [47:29]
Heath
Some of it. The reason it's so bad is what we always talk about with the Chargers. Joe Alt got hurt. The offense, pass offense wasn't near as good in the second half of the season. But that's only some of it because the first eight weeks of the season when they were healthy, he was wide receiver 26 and had two games over 75 yards. Didn't score a touchdown the first month of the season. I think he is the type of player who could be hurt more by what we've talked about with the way the game has changed. He's a guy who we would think would maybe benefit more based on having a large volume of catches that's probably going to be a little bit lower. He has some guys on his team who are very good in the red zone. He, I don't think know that we should expect him necessarily score as many touchdowns as Quentin Johnston does. And they've got this complicated situation with how much did they want to pass the ball. They did it more at times last year and they went run heavy at times last year.
- [48:31]
Adam
Oh yeah, they. They averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game in their first seven games. They were one of the top passing teams in terms of attempts per game. And he wasn't even that good. He was on pace for 141 targets, which is great, but he just didn't do much with them. And then the Chargers in the last nine games of the year averaged 26.8 pass attempts per game. You're. You're right, you mentioned it. I mean they completely fell apart the last nine games of the year. Justin Herbert was on pace for 3,426 yards and 25 touchdowns on 26 point pass, 26.8 pass attempts per game. McConkey from Week 9 on 43 or fewer yards in each of his last seven games, including the playoffs. So it was a bad environment in terms of low pass volume. He wasn't doing anything. It was. Everything was bad there. And almost all that, if not all that, was without Joe Alt. You know, Dave, I think if I asked what happened to La McConkey, I actually think there might be a simple answer. And it's. Well, there's. Part of it is Keenan Allen.
- [49:30]
Dave
I was about to bring it up.
- [49:31]
Adam
A ton of targets.
- [49:33]
Dave
Yeah, yeah. That's what Keenan Allen does.
- [49:35]
Jamie
Don't come back.
- [49:36]
Heath
Lad only had six fewer targets last year than he had as a rookie though.
- [49:39]
Dave
It's true. But the, the target per route rate went down and his catch rate went down. His usage, I don't think on deeper throws also was way down in his second year compared to his first year.
- [49:51]
Heath
I just don't think Keenan Allen has anything to do with the thing those things.
- [49:55]
Adam
No, the efficiency, you're right. I mean that. I don't know how you explain that. But.
- [49:59]
Heath
But the terms adot was the same. So it wasn't like you. Not like he was used in a targeted in a different part of the field.
- [50:06]
Adam
Right. And the slot rate was. Went from like 66 to 61. So it wasn't that they did throw a lot more than they did the previous year. But the target, the target per route run rate went way down. And also if you think about McConkey and his, his rookie year. He wasn't that involved the first half like kind of like Brian Thomas Jr. So you could look at his total targets as a rookie, but if you separate, it's when they started to really feature him. He went off. But I, I don't know. Keenan Allen. Keenan Allen. Heath didn't, couldn't have anything to do with the efficiency per se, but he certainly affected the target per out run rate, you'd have to say. Right.
- [50:46]
Heath
But if we're just looking at what he produced in terms of targets per game or total targets, it was, it was basically the same thing. I think part of it is like a guy had 70, a 73 catch rate on 112 targets. And we just should have expected some regression from that because most, very few wide receivers in the NFL catch more than 70 of their targets. And we got some regression on that. It was a 63%. He averaged 10.3 yards per target. That's insane. And maybe if he did that over his career would be the best mark in the NFL history. And so we got some regression on that. It fell all the way to 7.4, which is mediocre. I think we get a little bit of a bounce back. The question is how big is the bounce back and how high is the past volume next year? I know we all love Mike McDaniel for Marion Hampton. It should be good for the run game how much they throw and how high those targets are concentrated on McConkey is a bit of a mystery. I kind of view him as a borderline wide receiver too. This year.
- [51:52]
Jamie
He's one of my favorite guys.
- [51:54]
Dave
Oh, go ahead, Jim.
- [51:55]
Jamie
I, I'm just all in on everything Chargers this year. I just think that McDaniel offensive line healthy, there's just a lot to like, you know. So I, I don't think you, you want to be too aggressive in how you draft McConkey because there's that glut of wide receivers. You know, I think when you talk about flowers and sending guys in that range Burden and Abuka though, that that run of wide receiver too is like he should probably be at the back end of those guys. But just looking at the situation like it, there's still talk of maybe a Keenan Allen return, which again I wouldn't love. But like McDaniel's track record has been fantastic with his receivers as well, you know, and he's not going to be Tyree Kill. He's probably closer from a profile standpoint obviously to Jalen Waddle. But there's, there's still just a lot to love about what he can do in this offense if everything is right. And we haven't really seen everything go right for the Chargers and Justin Herbert's time there, but it feels as if this is now the type of play caller to unleash everything that's capable of happening for the Chargers if everybody stays healthy.
- [53:05]
Dave
And it'll be a lot easier for McConkey to be that short area target out of the slot if there's, if Keenan Alle isn't there doing the exact same thing. And Allen had more targets per game than McConkey. He had just as many end zone targets, two more red zone targets. They both had a lot. And his target per route rate was like 8 percentage points higher. It was crazy. So get him out of there. If Aranda Gadson ends up taking some of that target share away, that's fine. It should mean an uptick for McConkey. I would be much more inclined to look at McConkey as a bounce back if there's no. If there's nobody that they put into that type of role that Keenan Allen was in last year.
- [53:45]
Heath
Does it bother you at all though that like we're like just please don't come back Keenan Allen and we're talking about a 33 year old wide receiver that's averaged less than 7 yards per target each of the last two seasons. Like, it's not, it's not like, like I know he has the, maybe it was just the relationship with Justin Herbert and that's why he just kept throwing it to him when he shouldn't have.
- [54:08]
Dave
Could be.
- [54:08]
Heath
But it's not like Keenan Allen's a currently great player.
- [54:12]
Jamie
And I think it's just another annoyance. Right.
- [54:15]
Adam
You know, I mean, you know, this
- [54:16]
Jamie
is, this is a team that clearly is going to, I, I would hope, you know, have a bigger emphasis on running the ball. That's something that Harbaugh wants and obviously McDaniel's been very successful at it from his time in San Francisco to his time in Miami. But you're looking at what this receiving core is, you know, Quinn Johnson, I don't think his game changes dramatically. You know, even if there is no return of Allen or addition of somebody else, Trey Harris has to step up and play much better to, you know, prove he deserves playing time Gas. And I would say the same thing. Lambert Smith, I think is still a project. So like McConkey should easily lead this team in targets. And if he leads his team in Targets without another guy that Justin Herbert's had history with and success with in Keenan Allen, you know, so it's, it's not necessarily like the target differential between the two last year, dramatically different from what he did year one. It's some of the important targets. It's those third down throws that went to Keenan Allen versus going to Lad McConkey. It's some of those end zone opportunities that went to Keenan Allen versus Ladman, you know, so I think when you, when you look at it as if Alan comes back to me, there's a question of who's the comfort factor, who's the, you know, Dave used to always be the security blankie for, you know, Justin Herbert. Right now it's, it to me it's clearly Lab McConkey. If, if Alan comes back, then I have questions. And so it's not that Allen is a great player. It's a player that has history with the quarterback. And I don't want to see that for what I, I, I believe lad McConkey can still become.
- [55:41]
Dave
And if they keep the receiving core the way it is, I don't see anybody that could take that Keenan, that could take Keenan Allen's role as another inside, also outside type of receiver and play to the same level as Allen did. As low as it was. I mean, Trey Harris would probably be the next best candidate in his second season and I don't see that happening. I think, I think we're on track for Lad to have a bounce back year and I would draft him as a number two wide receiver in ppr.
- [56:11]
Heath
Only other thing I'll say is like perennial punching bag Quentin Johnston is like two months older than Lad McConkey, a former first round pick and was better per game than Lad McConkey last year.
- [56:27]
Jamie
Oh, he's amazing value. You know, I think when you look at Quentin Johnson, again, today's point, if this receiving course stays what it is, you know, Johnson is one of the best values you'll find in any fantasy draft and hopefully can continue to, you know, develop in McCartney, in McDaniel's system with Justin Herbert and you know, maybe earn himself a surprisingly big payday. You know, he's, he's still got that type of, of upside. It's just a matter of can he do it consistently. So yeah, he's, he's somebody should absolutely be, be targeting again. For me, if you look at the drafts we've done, I think I've taken Hampton, McConkey, Herbert or Johnston in every draft. I just want pieces of this offense.
- [57:08]
Adam
So yeah, last thing we keep talking about, Joe. Altogether in 2024, Rashawn Slater was PFF's third highest graded offensive tackle in pass blocking between behind Tristan Worse and Jordan Mylotta. He missed the entire season. So it's just, you know, to have arguably the best tackle tandem in the NFL or one up there. You know, Eagles would probably make the case, but up there they didn't have that at all last year and they had all for four games where he played where he was healthy. So obviously that's going to help everyone. They've got a great offensive coordinator coming in. But I think as we've had this discussion, I'm sitting here wondering what's that different about McConkey compared to Brian Thomas Jr. Where you're willing to take McConkey three to four rounds earlier? I mean they both were amazing as rookies. Brian Thomas Jr. Was better. They both were drafted in a similar spot in the NFL draft. Brian Thomas Jr. Went ahead of him in fantasy in 2025. They both have target competition. I mean, you want to talk about the Chargers offense being so great, is it going to be better than the Jaguars? I mean, maybe, but you could certainly see a case where the Jaguars are better. Parker Washington's had, I don't know, six good games, six great games in his career. I'm not discounting him, but he hasn't exactly been proven. Jacoby Myers is a really good, solid player, but he's not. To me, if Brian Thomas Jr. Is as good as he was as a rookie, I don't think Jacoby Myers is the guy that's going to take that away from him. So I don't, I don't know why they're looked at so differently. Jamie, you want any. I'll let all of you comment on that. But what's the big difference there between McConkey and Brian Thomas Jr.
- [58:50]
Jamie
So it's certainly a fair question. I, I think expected role for McConkey versus expected role for Brian Thomas and I don't think the target competition is the same. I think when you look at Jacksonville, there's significantly more target competition because for at least again in the current state of what the Chargers look like, if there is no Keenan Allen, I don't think Quentin Johnston is going to take a huge leap in targets. He may get a bump by one or two. I don't think Trey Harris comes in and dominates targets. I don't think Lambert Smith comes in and dominates targets. I also may not be done with their receiving core because Those two young receivers didn't exactly overwhelm in their production. And Gaston being the same thing to me, Gaston and, and Strange is almost like a wash. But I think McConkey should, I don't know, significantly lead the team in targets, but I think he's going to lead the team targets. I can't say that definitively about Brian Thomas. It could be Myers, it could be Washington. I'd be surprised if it's Hunter, but those two guys can be the target leaders there. I would agree with you that the, or I don't know if you said this, but I think the run game as it stands right now is better in Los Angeles than it is in Jacksonville with what they're looking at from a personnel standpoint.
- [59:57]
Adam
But I didn't say that. But I do like you agreeing with me from something.
- [60:01]
Jamie
No, I, I, I, to me it's, it's target competition and roll, I don't know, significantly favor McConkey, but I'm going to put it that way that it significantly favors McConkey.
- [60:10]
Heath
I think McConkey's floor is much higher. I probably think Thomas's ceiling is higher.
- [60:15]
Jamie
I would agree with that. Okay.
- [60:17]
Adam
All right.
- [60:17]
Dave
I don't have anything.
- [60:18]
Adam
All right, perfect. Let's go to Jaden Daniels here. Jaden Daniels. Jamie, I think you frame this as kind of an easy one. Is that what you said?
- [60:26]
Jamie
Yeah.
- [60:26]
Adam
Hey, in the, hey. So Jaden Daniels, why is it so easy? Just, are you just gonna blame it on injuries?
- [60:32]
Jamie
Yeah.
- [60:33]
Adam
Okay. Yeah. I mean, look, he, he played seven games, Jaden Daniels, four of them. He played 100 of the snaps. If you look at those four, four games, scored 22.2 points, 23.7 points, 19.1 and 27.6. So that's 23.1 fantasy points per game in his four healthy games. Compare that to his healthy games in 2025 because he did leave too early. Scored 26 fantasy points per game. So that is 2.9 fewer per game in six point per passing touchdown leagues. And that was with the same amount of pass attempts and basically the same amount of rush attempts per game. Unfortunately, it's only a four game sample size. But Heath, you know, you've talked a lot about, he just wasn't quite as good this year, Jaden Daniels as he was or 2025 as he was as a rookie in 2024. Did you see anything more complicated than he just couldn't stay healthy?
- [61:26]
Heath
I think that that was one of the biggest concerns about Jaden Daniels coming into the NFL and That's exactly what happened last year. And I don't think that for the period of time when Jaden Daniels was healthy that Terry McLaurin was fully himself either. And so it just wasn't as good of situation and he wasn't himself for most of the year.
- [61:46]
Adam
Is there anything else we're missing? I think for me it was probably health but also kind of like what we said about Lab McConkey. Heath, you said he had this yards per target and this catch rate that were just too high and I just wonder if Jaden Daniel's just too good as a rookie. Not a lot of rookies average 26 fantasy points per game. 20 Justin Herbert did and then he backed it up with 26.2 fantasy points per.
- [62:10]
Heath
Well, Daniels didn't average 26 fantasy points per game as a rookie, did he?
- [62:14]
Adam
No, he didn't. I'm sorry but at the end of
- [62:16]
Dave
his rookie year, not a lot of
- [62:17]
Heath
rookies have an A Can can be. Azer stated to 26 fantasy points he
- [62:20]
Adam
did in the games. He didn't leave early with an injury. But you're right, he didn't officially. Cam Newton averaged 25.3 fantasy points per game as a rookie and he had one great fantasy season after that. In his entire career. Basically, yeah. He had two elite seasons. One was his rookie season. So I'm just wondering if like with Lab McConkey and maybe Brian Thomas Jr. We just overrated Jane Daniels who just was was just too good as a rookie and you couldn't really expect it to to happen again. I don't know.
- [62:54]
Dave
His completion rate was down from 68.4 to 60.6 yards per attempt was down 7, 10 of a yard. Touchdown rate was down almost 1%. He is EPA was definitely in the toilet and he didn't have Terry McLaurin at full throttle. Remember, McLaurin was holding out for most of training camp. When he finally signed his deal, he was still working his way back and getting his timing down. There was a deep throw very early on in the year from Daniels that McLaurin couldn't quite catch up to. I think if both of them had stayed healthy over the course of the year that would have been fine and that would have helped Jay and Daniels numbers out and he'd be closer to like 23, 24 fantasy points per game over the course of the whole season. You mentioned what he did in his four healthy games. I think that's a pretty fair representation of what Jay and Daniels can do when everything is right and just Not a lot was right with the commander's offense and personnel last year. Tack on injuries on top of it and it made for a wonky season and hopefully you draft them at a discount this year and you hope that he bounces back.
- [63:57]
Heath
I. I will say that, like, I. I cited the catch rate and the yards per target for the things that Lad obviously could not repeat. Those don't. There's not statistics like that for Daniels that stick out from his rookie year that were obviously not going to be repeated.
- [64:13]
Adam
Jaden Daniels, in the last eight games of his rookie season, if you include three playoff games and you remove week 18, which he.
- [64:21]
Heath
Oh, boy.
- [64:22]
Adam
Which he left early, you know, because it was week 18, he averaged 32.5 fantasy points per game. He was unbelievable. And I do think that is something that all three of the second year busts that we've talked about today had in common. Brian Thomas Jr. Lad McConkey and Jaden Daniels went bonkers in about the last eight games or so. I think it was about 10 or 11 for McConkey of the 2024 season. And I don't think anybody was really drafting them based on those numbers, but obviously we got extremely excited about it and, you know, it just. It didn't work out. But Daniels, to his credit, he wasn't. It wasn't just those games. I mean, he was really good if. Just look at the full season numbers as a rookie. Okay, Dave, I know you wanted to get into comps for those.
- [65:13]
Dave
No, I don't think we should.
- [65:15]
Adam
All right. We can do it on our next show.
- [65:17]
Dave
I don't think we should.
- [65:18]
Adam
Why?
- [65:19]
Dave
Because I think it. I think we've already gone on long and I think we covered these guys really well.
- [65:23]
Adam
Okay. So did defending cornerbacks. Thank you, Jamie. Okay. Well, we learned that the movie A Mighty Wind has one very memorable line. Hey, what happened? And we learned. You know what? Let's finish with this. Who give me these six players, rank them most likely to bounce back in 2026.
- [65:51]
Dave
Nico one, Nico over Jefferson. Yeah. Nico one, give me Jefferson two, Lad three, Daniels four, Saquon five.
- [66:03]
Jamie
BTJ last bounce back in terms of
- [66:07]
Dave
getting back to 2024.
- [66:10]
Adam
Yeah.
- [66:11]
Jamie
Or who's most likely to be successful this year.
- [66:14]
Adam
Can we kind of do a hybrid of that? Like they don't have to bounce all the way back.
- [66:18]
Jamie
You know, I'll go. Jefferson one, Nico two, Barkley three, Lad four, Jaden five and Brian six.
- [66:34]
Heath
I've. Jefferson, Jaden, Nico. Like, if we're bouncing back to 24, then I think Saquon's definitely last.
- [66:46]
Adam
Yeah. Yeah. No, I, I don't know. I, I feel like Brian, I'll go
- [66:50]
Heath
Thomas fifth, then I'll put Lad fourth.
- [66:52]
Adam
I thought the only consensus we might get would be BTJ last. But that was interesting how you guys, especially how you saw Jaden Daniels. Heath, I'm kind of with you. I thought he'd be pretty high on the most likely to bounce back list. The kids he's, he runs nine times a game. If he's going to run nine times a game, I think we're gonna have a pretty damn good, I mean, but
- [67:10]
Jamie
right now his receiving core is disastrous. He's coming off significant injuries. Got a new coordinator.
- [67:16]
Adam
Like it's got, still has to be
- [67:18]
Dave
a whole new offense.
- [67:18]
Adam
Still has McLaurin.
- [67:20]
Jamie
I think he's going to be good. I, I, I still would like to draft him as a borderline top five quarterback. I just have concerns.
- [67:28]
Adam
Okay. All right. Good show, guys. Thank you, everybody. Hope you all had a wonderful weekend and a happy Easter out there. And we will talk to you on Wednesday with another edition of Fantasy football today. And of course, we'll be focusing in the coming days and weeks on the NFL drafts, getting you acquainted with the prospects. That's not the only thing we'll be doing. And certainly listen to fft, Dynasty and Beyond the Box Score. If you want more information about the incoming rookies, talk to you next time on Fantasy Football Today.
- [68:01]
Jamie
Paramount Podcasts.
- [68:05]
Adam
This episode is brought to you by Athletic Brewing company. No matter how you do game day, on the couch, in the crowd, or manning the snack table, Athletic Brewing fits right in with a full lineup of non alcoholic beer styles. You can enjoy bold flavors all game long. No hangovers, no buzz, no subbing out for water in the city. Second half stock the fridge for tip off with a variety of nonalcoholic craft styles. Available at your local grocery store or online at athleticbrewing. Com near beer fit for all times.