10 Biggest Rankings Movers! Jaylen Warren, Rome Odunze, Cooper Kupp and More (03/17 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today: Episode Summary Release Date: March 17, 2025

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Introduction

In this episode of Fantasy Football Today, hosted by Adam Aizer alongside analysts Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, and Heath Cummings, the team dives deep into the latest fantasy football developments post-free agency. Skipping the advertisements and non-content segments, the focus remains on actionable insights, player rankings, and strategic advice to help listeners dominate their fantasy leagues.

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10 Biggest Rankings Movers

The primary focus of this episode revolves around the 10 biggest rankings movers in fantasy football following the recent free agency period. While not exclusively the most significant, the movers discussed introduce fresh perspectives and emerging talents.

1. Justin Fields

   • Heath highlights Fields: “He went from maybe not a starting quarterback in the NFL to maybe a starting quarterback on your fantasy football team.” (04:00)
   • Fields is projected to maintain around 20 fantasy points per game with potential to reach 25 based on his performance over the past three seasons.

2. Jalen Warren

   • Jamie moved Warren up to around 22-23 in his rankings, placing him just behind Aaron Jones.
   • Heath expresses caution: “I’m a little bit less excited just because I'm not sure they’d give him the workload that he needs.” (28:39)
   • Warren is seen as a potential RB30 option with concerns about workload consistency.

3. Evan Ingram

   • Initially considered a tight end with fluctuating performance, Ingram's ranking remains guarded due to efficiency concerns.
   • Heath notes, “He’s been terrible. And the Broncos haven't thrown to their tight ends...” (05:27)

4. Cooper Kupp Acquisition by Seahawks

   • Tiki assesses Kupp’s impact: “Cooper Kupp is best in the slot, but if he’s lining up outside more often, can he win against one-on-one coverage?” (14:39)
   • Concerns revolve around Kupp's speed and his ability to adapt to the Seahawks’ offensive dynamics alongside Justin Jefferson (JSN).

5. Jackson Smith & Jigba

   • Both receivers have moved up in rankings, with Dave considering drafting them in Round 3 due to their potential target volume despite increased competition from Cooper Kupp.

6. Debo Samuel

   • Highlighted as having an opportunity to become a significant target in his new team’s offense but remains uncertain due to last year's performance inconsistencies.

7. Cooper Kupp's Contract Structure

   • Jamie inquires about Kupp’s new deal: “Is it really more like a one-year deal?” (10:00)
   • Clarifies that Kupp's contract with the Seahawks is structured as a three-year, $45 million deal, though the specifics of guaranteed money remain unclear.

8. CJ Stroud and Cooper Kupp's Impact on 49ers Receivers

   • Dave discusses the potential shifts in target distribution among the 49ers’ wide receivers, emphasizing the rise of Ricky Pearsall and Juwan Jennings over Brandon Aiyuk due to market uncertainties.

9. Najee Harris to Chargers

   • Jamie views Harris as a top 20 fantasy option with consistent performance, especially on a run-heavy offense lacking a featured back.

10. Breece Hall's Decline

    • Jamie and Heath discuss Hall's drop from a top 15 pick to RB17, attributing it to a weaker offensive line and reduced involvement in both passing and scoring plays.

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Key Discussions and Insights

Quarterback Rankings: Justin Fields vs. Anthony Richardson

• Heath and Tiki debate whether drafting Anthony Richardson is worthwhile, considering his inconsistent performance and comparison to Justin Fields.
• Adam emphasizes the potential upside of Richardson being a starter, but Tiki remains skeptical: “He’s been in the league for two years and hasn’t solidified his role.”

Seahawks' Cooper Kupp and 49ers Receivers

• The addition of Cooper Kupp to the Seahawks introduces competition for targets, potentially impacting Justin Jefferson's (JSN) fantasy value.
• Dave predicts drafting JSN as a quality number two wide receiver given the Seahawks' offensive changes.

Rushing Backfield Dynamics: Chiefs and Others

• Heath analyzes the Chiefs' backfield, expressing concerns over the limited role of Isaiah Pacheco and the marginal impact of Kareem Hunt’s one-year deal.
• Discussions also touch upon the balance between reliability and upside in running back selections, with a particular emphasis on Aaron Jones versus emerging options like Jalen Warren.

Receiver Breakouts: Roma Odunze and DJ Moore

• Tiki forecasts a breakout year for Roma Odunze, projecting him to climb to around WR26 from WR36, driven by potential target increases.
• Jamie highlights DJ Moore’s fluctuating performance but acknowledges his attractiveness in a bolstered offensive lineup.

Breece Hall's Fantasy Outlook

• A significant concern is Hall's ability to maintain production with a rebuilding offensive line and reduced involvement in the passing game under quarterback Justin Fields.
• Adam underscores the negative impact of Fields on Hall’s rushing and scoring opportunities, suggesting a possible drop in Hall's fantasy reliability.

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Bracket Challenge and Listener Engagement

The hosts promote their Bracket Challenge, encouraging listeners to participate for a chance to join the podcast league and win subscriptions to Paramount Plus:

• Adam: “If you win, you're in the podcast league and you get a year-long subscription to Paramount. Plus, if you finish in second or third place, a month-long subscription.” (11:10)

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Concluding Thoughts

The episode wraps up with a reiteration of key rankings movers and strategic advice for the upcoming fantasy football season. The analysts emphasize the importance of monitoring player performances, team dynamics post-free agency, and making informed decisions to optimize fantasy lineups.

Listeners are encouraged to engage with the podcast's bracket challenge and stay tuned for future episodes focusing on deeper player analyses and league strategies.

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Notable Quotes

• Heath on Justin Fields: “He went from maybe not a starting quarterback in the NFL to maybe a starting quarterback on your fantasy football team.” (04:00)

• Jamie on Jalen Warren: “...he’s certainly proven he could be a significant pass catcher, which is nice that he has that ability...” (27:31)

• Tiki on Cooper Kupp: “If he’s lining up outside more often, can he win against one-on-one coverage?” (14:39)

• Adam on Breece Hall: “He is not good for catches and not good for touchdowns... I think it’s pretty interesting here for...” (52:45)

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This summary captures the essence of Episode 03/17 of "Fantasy Football Today," focusing on player rankings, strategic discussions, and actionable insights for fantasy football enthusiasts.

Transcript

[Adam]

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[Dave]

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[Heath]

Today from CBS Sports.

[Adam]

Wanna play? Can you believe this?

[Jamie]

No, I can't.

[Heath]

It's time to dominate your fantasy.

[Adam]

Off to the races and he stays on his feet. This is gonna go the distance.

[Heath]

Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.

[Adam]

Oh, what's up, everybody? Welcome to the show. It is Monday, March 17th. None of us are wearing green from what I can see. Heath, that's not green. Is it that shirt?

[Heath]

This shirt is not green. My shorts are okay.

[Adam]

Happy St. Patrick's Day, everybody. Who are the biggest rankings movers post free agency? We've got a list of 10 big rankings movers, not necessarily the biggest ones, because I don't want to just repeat last week's shows. But we will sort of touch on that a little bit. But some guys we're going to talk about today. Breece hall moving down in the rankings. Jalen Warren moving up in the rankings. Jackson Smith and Jigma moving up in the rankings. Debo Samuel moving down in the rankings. Those are just some of the players we will talk about. And wouldn't you know, the brackets are not even out for 24 hours. And Jamie, the big Gators fan, is already complaining about Florida's draw. So sad, Jamie.

[Jamie]

I mean, it was not sad. It's just, you know, not. Not ideal that we win the SEC and it's the toughest conference maybe in the history of basketball to win and not the number one overall seed.

[Adam]

Who was the number one overall seed? Auburn, I think.

[Jamie]

Duke was.

[Adam]

Duke was.

[Tiki]

I think it's Auburn.

[Adam]

Auburn.

[Jamie]

Maybe it's Auburn. I don't know. I know we were fourth.

[Adam]

Oh, that's. That does feel like a little bit of a snub. But you know what? Worst of luck to the Florida Gators. We'll tell you more about our bracket challenge in a little bit. You have an opportunity not just to be in the podcast league, but to get a year long subscription to Paramount Plus. That's pretty cool. Go to CBSSports.com FFT and join our bracket challenge. Okay, so later in the show we'll talk about some players that, that maybe were not the biggest movers, but they were among them. I just wanted to get some fresh names in there. Guys, we hadn't, you know, I don't want to beat a dead horse, but for now, let's beat a dead horse if you want to. Who was your biggest rankings mover? Heath, I'll start with you.

[Heath]

It's gotta be Justin Fields. He went from maybe not a starting quarterback in the NFL to maybe a starting quarterback on your fantasy football team. We get to see Justin Fields. I, I think pretty likely, unless there's an injury as a starter for the season. And we've seen three seasons in a row Justin Fields as a starter over 20 fantasy points per game. I expect we'll see him right around 20 fantasy points per game this year with the upside to do what he did in his last four last year, which was closer to 25 fantasy points per game.

[Adam]

Okay, can we go through it here? You guys have Justin Fields ranked where in your quarterback rankings?

[Heath]

14, 15, 13.

[Adam]

Well, I think I know where he's going to be in the Consensus rankings, if I can do that math. All right. Justin Fields or Anthony Richardson?

[Tiki]

Fields.

[Jamie]

Fields.

[Heath]

I'll go. Fields.

[Adam]

Okay. Jamie, who's your biggest rankings mover?

[Jamie]

Justin Fields.

[Adam]

Fair.

[Jamie]

Try to think. Who else moved, like, significantly. Jalen Warren's a good one. Evan Ingram. I think when I first did my rankings, when he was released, obviously, and didn't have high expectations for him to land in a spot that I would say he was going to be a top 10 fantasy tight end and he's back in the top 10.

[Adam]

Anybody else? Anybody have him top 10? Evan Ingram?

[Tiki]

Yes.

[Heath]

No.

[Adam]

What, do you have him? 11th?

[Heath]

Well, not top 12.

[Adam]

Okay.

[Heath]

He's been terrible. And the Broncos haven't thrown to their tight ends and he's 31 years old and I just don't. I don't want to do that, but I understand why, like, he's been able to, like, in full PPR, produce like a top 10 or 12 tight end with some of the worst efficiency that any titan has ever had in his life.

[Adam]

When are you saying when is the efficiency just with Jacksonville or his whole career?

[Heath]

Mostly his whole career, but especially last year. And you know the rule about a pass catcher is over 30 for me, that I don't really expect bounce backs years. He averaged 5.7 yards per target three times in his career. He's been close to or over 100 targets, and he's lived in the six to 700 yard range.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Heath]

Few players in the NFL have been worse at turning targets into fantasy points because he also doesn't score any touchdowns.

[Adam]

Gets a lot of targets, though.

[Heath]

Evan England, he has gotten a lot of targets the last few years playing in Doug Peterson's offense, which always gives tight ends a lot of targets.

[Adam]

Well, he's been on pace for 115 or more targets in six of eight seasons. That's if you A's or stat it and remove games. He left with injuries, but in his full games he's been on pace for 100. That's a lot of targets. 115 or more in six of eight seasons. He also had a year, Evan Ingram, where he averaged 5.6 yards per target in 2021, and then he was up to 7.8 yards per target the next season. But you're right.

[Heath]

Which is also still not good. It's fine.

[Adam]

Okay. Really low yak last year. That definitely stands out. I guess ranking. Ranking a tight end. 10th isn't a huge endorsement anyway, so.

[Heath]

No.

[Adam]

Yeah. Okay. Dave, biggest rankings mover for you.

[Tiki]

Well, those are the two biggest ones I'LL say jsn slightly out of Najee, but those were both guys that moved up for me. Now, if we're talking about guys that move down, like, could there be big rankings movers who move down?

[Adam]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Tiki]

Anthony Richardson.

[Adam]

Okay. You think this. You think Daniel Jones is a big.

[Tiki]

Threat, whether it happens in week one or in week five? I think Daniel Jones has gone to Indianapolis to get on the field at some point. And so until there's literal evidence from videos and coaches and everything else that says that Anthony Richardson's a different guy. Okay. Practice observers, the whole nine. It's a waste of a draft pick. I don't care if it's your last pick. It's a waste.

[Adam]

That's so hard.

[Heath]

It's not. It's not a waste to draft somebody. Like, we draft backup running backs who won't see the field unless somebody gets hurt and just view Anthony Richardson like that. If it works out, you've got a top eight quarterback.

[Tiki]

I've been waiting for it to work out for, like, three years now or two years he's been in the league. Two years.

[Adam]

Two years. Yeah.

[Heath]

He's played, like 10 games or something. 14 or.

[Jamie]

Yeah.

[Tiki]

What's technically the definition of insanity again?

[Adam]

But I don't.

[Jamie]

I.

[Adam]

That's really. I don't know, man.

[Tiki]

I'm just telling you what I'm doing. Like, a week ago, I was not a big fan of Justin Fields either.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Tiki]

Happily would take Justin Fields over Anthony Richardson.

[Adam]

Well, the only thing I would. I would strongly disagree with you on is that it's a waste of a pick because like he said, I mean, you're taking a shot on upside there, because he could. He could be the starter for half the season, but he could still be a top 10 quarterback when he. For half that season in fantasy.

[Tiki]

Okay.

[Adam]

Right.

[Tiki]

And when you drop him at any point in the year when he doesn't deliver for you, that's when you'll say, gosh, I wish I could have taken, you know, insert dart throw running back.

[Adam]

I wish I could have taken Marshawn Lloyd there. I wish I could have taken a.

[Jamie]

Draft like two weeks ago where you drafted three quarterbacks.

[Tiki]

Like, was Andy Richardson one of them?

[Jamie]

No, but there were probably about how I feel.

[Heath]

If you're gonna draft. I think one of them should be Richardson. Probably.

[Adam]

He's not gonna draft three of them again. That was weird.

[Tiki]

I'm never gonna draft three in a draft that matters. Any draft we do between now and. First of all, any mock draft before The NFL draft. Like, it's great content and it's fun to think about and start to like, talk about strategy. So I guess they matter in that regard. But I guarantee you in any of the drafts we do that are for our leagues back in, in August, it's coming up. No chance. I'm taking three quarterbacks.

[Heath]

All right, well, except for the Super Flex draft.

[Adam]

Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Tiki]

Thank you.

[Adam]

All right, so those are some of the biggest movers in the rankings. Justin Fields up, Evan Ingram up, Anthony Richardson down. But well, yeah, I mean, you heard different viewpoints on those. Okay. Anyway, our bracket challenge. So like to get as many people as possible in this CBSSports.com FFT that's a pretty cool URL. It goes right to our page and you can fill out your bracket. And if you win this, you're in the podcast league, but you also get a year long subscription to Paramount plus if you finish in second or third place, you get a month long subscription to Paramount plus. So really exciting rewards this year. Again, podcast league if you win it, plus a year long subscription to Paramount plus and you go, if you get second or third place, you get a month long subscription to Paramount plus. And we hope you join our bracket challenge. I want to talk about Cooper cup going to the Seahawks. Three year, $45 million deal. I, you know, the way it's structured. Does anybody know how it's structured, that Cooper cup contract in terms of what he's guaranteed and is it really more like a one year deal?

[Tiki]

See if I can find something.

[Jamie]

One year. And then he's done that.

[Adam]

It.

[Jamie]

I would imagine. Right. He's not seeing three years in Seattle.

[Adam]

And yes, I did lie about updating my background. I was, I tried to do that this weekend. Did not get around to it, but I'm working on it. Anyway, we'll take a break real quick, come back.

[Jamie]

Better tape.

[Adam]

It's just. Yeah, I put new tape on, so it should, should last. It should not fall down today.

[Heath]

When you say that you tried to do that this weekend, like, what was the extent of your trying?

[Tiki]

5 minutes before the podcast, he taped it back up.

[Jamie]

I actually said to his wife, I gotta update my background. And she said, good. And that was it.

[Adam]

I downloaded an image and I put it on a thumb drive to take to Staples. I never made it to the car to get to Staples. So it's on the thumb drive and we'll make some progress from there. We'll be right back on Fantasy football today.

[Jimmy]

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[Adam]

Okay, welcome back folks. Let's go through the news and notes here. The Falcons kept Kirk Cousins and he earned a $10 million roster bonus. So it looks like Kirk Cousins gonna be on the Falcons. Does that make you nervous about Michael Pennix at all? Say in a super flex league?

[Jamie]

More so than if he was cut clearly. But I, I think it's still not a 100 guarantee. He's on the team. You know, they just decided to give him, give him the the roster bonus with the hope I think still of trading him as opposed to eating the contract.

[Adam]

Okay, next news item. Seattle signed Cooper cup three year, 45 million dollar deal. Okay, Dave, you talked about JSN being a riser. Briefly touched on that he is going to be in our upcoming segment about the biggest movers and two games without DK Metcalf last year he was a monster. So what do you think about this Cooper cup edition? How does it affect Jackson, Smith and Jigba and where's Cooper cup for you?

[Tiki]

Cooper cup is outside of my top 36, but I can't say that he was a big mover because he was never in my top 36 before the move to Seattle. I still think that JSN is going to be the best wide receiver and the top target earner for the Seahawks. It's just a matter of can he expand on being more than the slot guy because Cooper cup is best in the slot. And if, if that means that JSN is playing outside a lot more, then we've got to do our our research. And Adam, you might have already done it on how Jackson, Smith and Jigba's done lining up outside. Can he win against one on one coverage on the outside? Yeah, I think he can. In some respects his route running can get him open and I think he can be physical. It's the speed that I worry about and I kind of worry a little bit about how his game is just like a younger version of what Cooper Cup's game is now. You know what I'm saying? Like they can both run routes, they can both get open running routes, they both have great hands, they both have good size couple little bit more so than than jsn. It's just the speed factor. I think jsn obviously almost everybody, every wide receiver in the league will have more speed than Cooper cup at this point. But I would imagine that cup signing there does force JSN outside a lot more often.

[Adam]

So I don't really have much to say. In, in 2023 Metcalf miss one game and JSN I think he had his highest rate lining up outside out wide and he had a great game. He had his best game of the year. I think one of his best games, if not his best. If you look at his numbers out wide versus the slot in 2023, they were much better out wide in terms of like yards per out run. This past year his yards per out run were absolutely terrible out wide and they were really good in the slot. So I don't know what to make of it. Probably not much because it's not like he's going to be an 80%.

[Jamie]

Yeah.

[Adam]

Do you, do you. So you compared him to Cooper Cup. Do you think he's like. I thought maybe like Puka Nakua too. Like he's not a burner but he's a Great route runner and hopefully that.

[Tiki]

Would be anywhere a totally reasonable comparison.

[Heath]

I might be a little.

[Tiki]

I hear he's kind of grunting.

[Heath]

I might be a little closer on cup and JSN this year. Not. I mean, JSN definitely first.

[Tiki]

Sure.

[Heath]

But I, I'm not sure there's going to be a huge target disparity when Cup's healthy.

[Tiki]

Well, that would be sad.

[Heath]

I mean, cup was still over 9 targets a game last year, wasn't he? Or 8.2, something like that.

[Adam]

Well, really cratered down. Yeah, yeah. Down the stretch.

[Jamie]

I mean his last five games were miserable.

[Adam]

They obviously believe in him. Oh, they're, you know, giving him this. Well, again, I want to look up the contract details. So he had 21 targets in week one. Holy cow. But his last six games, three, three, three one and seven. That's five games, three, three, three One, seven targets including the playoffs for Cooper Cup. All right, so where is JSN in your rankings, guys?

[Jamie]

11Th.

[Heath]

Currently he's at 15, 18, 17, 11, 15, 17.

[Adam]

All right, I guess we can talk about him a little bit more later when we get into our biggest rankings movers because he was high for, for higher for Jamie and then where's Cooper Cup? Dave said outside the top 36. Anybody have cup inside the top 36?

[Jamie]

Nope.

[Heath]

Yeah, between 30 and 36.

[Adam]

The Vikings acquired Jordan Mason from San Francisco for a sixth round pick in 2026 and a pick swap in 2025. How high is Mason in the handcuff rankings?

[Jamie]

In the top 36. Just inside number 36.

[Tiki]

That's like your running back rankings, even your handcuff rankings.

[Heath]

He's at 35 in the projections for me.

[Adam]

So yeah, okay, so he's getting drafted, so yeah.

[Tiki]

Oh my gosh, of course he's going to get drafted. I'm trying to temper my expectations and my excitement for Jordan Mason because I, I thought he, he looked good at the start of last year, but he's not a well rounded three down running back. And Aaron Jones is still going to be awesome. We saw last year that Cam Acres, this is an upgrade on Cam Acres is really what it is. And we saw last year the Acres was playing like a third of the time for Minnesota, something like that. And unless Aaron Jones takes a step back, Mason's just gonna play a third of the time and he's going to be one of those dart throw lottery ticket guys. I'm sure the fellows would agree with me that Garendo would be the better drafty at this point than Mason.

[Jamie]

But No, I would take Mason over Grando for two reasons. One, Cisco's history of drafting running backs. They're going to take somebody again. They have a lot of picks. Two, he's also an injury prone running back playing behind an injury prone running back. So they're not far apart. But I think Mason's situation, at least for me right now, is just slightly better for two reasons. One, you got him playing behind a 30 year old Aaron Jones who was great last year playing through injuries, but Kevin O'Connell's already said they played him too much. And the fact that he's come out and said that is I think an indication of why they went and got somebody else, you know, so it's a little surprising that they didn't, you know, maybe try and draft someone. I know they're really thin on draft picks so, you know, making this move is, is probably a smart one. The contract is, is, you know, somewhat interesting that they gave him a two year deal for, you know, what he has been. So I like both a lot because of who they're playing behind, but I would think by the time we get out of the NFL Draft, the 49ers have somebody else. Like what they did last year in drafting Garendo after they had already Elijah Mitchell and Mason on the roster. But to me, I think Mason's in a great spot. Like this was a fantastic trade for him.

[Tiki]

Oh, there's no question it was great for him. I still, I still like Gyles. I like his lottery ticket potential better for obvious reasons, like number one, it's San Francisco. I think that offense will still be good and we saw Garendo work as a pass catcher. So like if he's, if he's got that opportunity, I'll take him over whatever rookie they draft, assuming they don't go crazy with the draft capital. You know, they get one of the top five running backs and obviously Garendo's spot is in trouble. But if it's a day three running back, Garrendo's already proven it. You just got away from McCaffrey and see how he is coming into the year. They both might end up mattering this year and that's great. But I, I liked what I saw from Garendo last year too and I think he can do more if he gets that opportunity in San Fran. Cisco.

[Adam]

Okay. And speaking of.

[Tiki]

Oh yeah, I'm not disrespecting the city by not saying the whole name.

[Adam]

Why is that a thing?

[Tiki]

It's a thing, really. It's been for Year. Oh yeah, years.

[Adam]

They don't like being called San Fran.

[Tiki]

Don't even do it, dude. It's disrespectful.

[Heath]

Really feel like I have to.

[Tiki]

We don't say where you live as Sleepy Ho.

[Adam]

I don't live in Sleepy Hill anymore. Kisk. So Speaking of former 49ers running backs, Elijah Mitchell, we know he's on the Chiefs, but Kareem Hunt is back with the Chiefs as well. So now Heath, what's your take on the Chiefs backfield as they give Kareem Hunt a one year small deal? One year deal worth up to two and a half million dollars. They also signed juju Smith Schuster.

[Heath]

Almost a mystery box would still prefer Isaiah Pacheco. Kind of surprised again that the Chiefs chose to do go this route instead of drafting a running back. But they need to draft like seven offensive linemen. So that may be why I Pacheco's the favorite to be the starting running back. I think it will be a committee and I think the Chiefs don't know right now. You don't know like at what point does Isaiah Pacheco look like the guy before he broke his leg? When he does, I think he's the guy. If he doesn't hunt very good in short yardage, he runs to the hole he's supposed to run to and runs until he gets tackled. Like you've talked about this, but he does. He's the type of running back coaches like more than fantasy football managers.

[Tiki]

Right.

[Heath]

And Mitchell provides some upside if he's able to be the same guy that he was and stay healthy, which is another big question mark.

[Jamie]

Are you guys taking win for Pacheco?

[Adam]

A big win?

[Jamie]

Yeah.

[Adam]

Oh, wow.

[Jamie]

I don't know.

[Adam]

I didn't necessarily see it that way.

[Jamie]

If they drafted somebody then he could have been replaced. Like now you're talking about two also ran guys. One's 27, one's 30. Yeah, you know, there, there's certainly potential for him to still get replaced if he's not right. But like if they were going to go and spend, I mean, look, this is a team that's at, at one point in the Andy Reid era has drafted a guy in the first round, you know, so it would have been, I think a huge detriment to him if they were going to spend some significant capital on a very loaded running back class. They brought back guys that they know. And look, even last year while Kareem Hunt was out playing Pacheco down the stretch, Pacheco still getting those first opportunities once he came back, you know, so if he's right and you know, again, this injury we've talked about a lot, you know, sometimes it takes a little bit longer than most. You know, I think we kind of illustrated when he came back last year. Don't expect this guy to be a league winning savior for you because of his return in week 13 and he wasn't. But I still think if he's the best guy, he's the best guy, you know, and so he's going to have the opportunity to still be a number two fantasy running back. Maybe not a top five top ten guy like we were expecting him to be last year and look like in the first couple of games this season, but you know, 27 year old Elijah Mitchell, who has a terrible injury, track record, who couldn't play at all last year after hamstring surgery and then Kareem Hunt again at his age, you know. Right. You know, asking him to come back like this is a great situation for Pacheco if he's healthy.

[Heath]

I, I, the only thing I would say is like they gave Kareem Hunt almost nothing. So maybe I'm over reading this and they do still draft a running back.

[Tiki]

Listen, not only did they not give Kareem Hunt almost nothing, they gave Elijah Mitchell almost nothing. And Pacheco's at the end of his rookie deal and he was a six round pick. So right now they've got a committee making nothing. They can move away.

[Jamie]

And Carson Steel too making and Carson.

[Tiki]

Seal who was an undrafted player. They could literally cut all four of these running backs and not feel it whatsoever on the salary cap. Let's see what happens. But there's an obvious scenario. Sorry James. There's an obvious scenario where there's an ugly committee and fantasy managers are rolling the dice starting any of these running backs from week to week.

[Adam]

Chiefs suck. Yeah, like I just, like I look at them lost Toonie. They just like they're not good. So who would you rather have, Pacheco or Aaron Jones right now?

[Heath]

Jones.

[Tiki]

Jones.

[Jamie]

Jones. Slightly.

[Adam]

Okay, Baltimore, oh, Cincinnati. They big deal this morning. Two wide receiver extensions. Jamar Chase, four years, $161 million with 112 million guaranteed. T. Higgins, four year, 115 million guaranteed. Nope, not guaranteed. 150 million overall, not guaranteed. But T. Higgins and Jamar Chase sign extensions. The Raven signed Cooper Rush to a two year deal. The jets signed former Kansas City defensive lineman Derek Nadi. Falling apart for the Chiefs. The 49ers brought back Kyle use check on a two year deal. The Commanders resigned defensive end Cleveland Farrell to a one year deal. They also signed former Steelers offensive lineman Nate Herbig, who missed all of 2024. The Bills, interesting news here. Two of their free agent signings, Michael Hecht from the Rams and Larry Ogan Joby. So two defensive linemen, they're both suspended six games for violating the PED policy. They knew about one of them. They did not know about Ogan Joe Ogan Joby, I believe. Buffalo signed. In addition to that, they signed guard Kendrick Green and cornerback Dane Jackson. The jets signed Tyler Johnson at wide receiver. The Chargers signed Makai Becton, former Eagles guard. He kind of re resurrected his career as a guard with the Eagles. He gets a two year, $20 million deal. It's a guy who started as a tackle and has had success now as an interior offensive lineman. So he's on the Chargers. Makai Becton. Dolphins signed tight end Farrell Brown. Cowboys sign wide receiver Paris Campbell. And the Eagles signed tight end Kyler Granson to a one year deal. Okay, let's talk now about some of the biggest movers that we haven't necessarily talked about as much. Not going to lie, it hasn't been the most exciting year of free agency. We knew that going in. So there's definitely going to be some overlap from what we talked about last week. But here we go. Jalen Warren. This is a list from Jamie that I think Dave and Heath just mostly agreed with. But Jamie, I'll just let you start. Jalen Warren was a big riser for you. Where did you move him up to?

[Jamie]

I think he's like 23 in that range. 22, 23.

[Adam]

Where is he compared to Pacheco?

[Jamie]

And Aaron Jones, head of Pacheco, behind Jones.

[Adam]

Okay, how about you guys? Would you take Aaron Jones or Jalen Warren?

[Tiki]

I have Jones. A couple spots are.

[Heath]

Yeah. And I'm writing about Dynasty running back rankings today. And one of the things is like be really careful with any optimism about any running back for the next couple of weeks, months, because we have done this before. Usually it's with guys that sign on teams. The guy that made me think of it was Najee, not necessarily Jalen Warren. But they go, they get a deal, they go to a spot we really like. Oh man, look at all this opportunity for them. And then a running back gets drafted and it doesn't matter anymore. So I, I'm, especially with Warren, I'm a little bit less excited just because I'm not sure I actually believe they'd give him the workload that he Needs. But I, I'd take Jones and I'd put Warren. I think he's around RB30.

[Jamie]

The interesting thing with them is they lost their second round pick with the DK Metcalf trade. So what do they do in terms of a. Don't have quarterback right now? I don't think they want to start the season with Mason Rudolph, but who knows? So I think they picked what, 21st.

[Tiki]

If sounds all right.

[Jamie]

If, if they're sitting there, which is, you know, Hampton range and they don't have a quarterback, like, do they really spend a first round pick, let's say Jackson Darton and Amari and Hampton are sitting there and they take running back over a quarterback who, you know, I think a lot of people consider to be the third quarterback in the class. That would be. That would be sort of telling, you know, where they're going with their offense. But yeah, I mean, they could still clearly draft somebody or still sign somebody, you know, like there's been some Nick Chubb rumors to the Steelers too. You know, add another presence there because Kenneth Gainwell right now is the only running back of significance as far as I know that they signed and they gave him next to nothing also. So they have some, some potential options, you know, with Warren being the starter and gain well as the backup. But it feels like there still could be somebody added in Pittsburgh.

[Adam]

Let's just say there isn't someone added in Pittsburgh. Why is this not the opportunity or for Jalen Warren to be a top 12 running back, you know, to break out and, and be amazing? Does anybody see it that way? If they don't draft a running back or if they draft a day three running back or something like that.

[Jamie]

I don't know top 12, but top 15. You know, he can, he can get there. I mean, look, his 2023 season was, was, I don't say impressive, but it was solid, you know, and he's certainly proven he could be a significant pass catcher, you know, which is nice that he has that ability even in Arthur Smith's offense. So, you know, when you're looking at what his, you know, chances are in this, in this role, if there's nobody else of significance brought in to your point, Adam, then, then yeah, he'll move up for me for sure. Like, I, if, if we get to, you know, June and he's the lead guy, I'd rather have him than Aaron Jones. Yes.

[Adam]

Yeah. I mean, the question would be, would you rather have him than a guy like Alvin Camara or something like that.

[Jamie]

Who'S they'd be close.

[Adam]

Yeah. But the thing is, so yeah, I guess with Warren, you know what the plus is, right? I mean, the Steelers are going to run the ball a lot. Arthur Smith has been top four in run rate in five of six seasons as a coordinator or a head coach. He's also been that. His teams have actually been top three in running back target rate in three of the last four seasons. They've also had some years where they've been very low in running back target rate. But two things that would concern me with Warren. I want to get your thoughts on this. Would he even be the third down back if he were the lead running back? Would he lose that role? Kenneth Gainwell. In all three of Jalen Warren seasons, Kenneth Gainwell has graded by PFF as a better pass blocker than Warren.

[Jamie]

And you see, they were talking trash to each other about it. No, playfully, you know, about who's the better pass blocker.

[Adam]

Okay. Well, yeah, for what it's worth, he's had higher, you know, higher grades and if you brought him here, you might as well use them. And then who would be the goal line back in his career, Jalen Warren has terrible numbers from the one fairies inside the three.

[Tiki]

Two touchdowns.

[Adam]

Yeah, but only one of those was from the one yard line. Most of them were from the two or the three. But still he did terrible. I watched them. There were two jet sweeps in there. They weren't, they wasn't all his fault. But Gainwell's been better near the goal line. Gainwell may be a better pass blocker. So that would be the two things. Does he lose goal line work? Does he lose the pass catching work?

[Tiki]

Well, yeah, you know, you know who would be their goal line guy?

[Adam]

No.

[Tiki]

Cordero, Patterson.

[Adam]

That. No way.

[Tiki]

Seven carries inside the three over the last three years. He has four touchdowns.

[Adam]

Did he have any last year? How many last year?

[Tiki]

They had Najee, Harrison, Pittsburgh last year and they were not near the goal line very often.

[Heath]

I, I think Adam like the, the point. We don't know the answer to any of those specific questions. But the point is he's not going to be the goal line back. And the third down back and handle and handle 15 rush attempts per game.

[Adam]

Right, Right.

[Heath]

He's.

[Tiki]

Unless he proves it, Heath. Unless he proves that he can do it, he won't start the year that way.

[Heath]

Yeah, there's not a long, I mean there's been a few guys. There's not a long list of guys who are single digit carries per game. And then in year Four, become a workhorse.

[Jamie]

He could be Chuba Hubbard.

[Adam]

Is it really. I mean, there are really not that many guys who finally got the opportunity and became, you know, 15. 15 touches per game, I think is certainly within the realm of possibility, but I would hope for more than that. I would hope for 17 touches per game at least. All right, well, one guy who's definitely had that work is Najee Harris. And this is another guy who's moved up in the rankings for Jamie as he goes from Pittsburgh to the Chargers. You can kick it off.

[Jamie]

Jamie, I mean, just opportunity, you know, look, he's. He's on a team that is still going to be run heavy. You know, whether you think it's going to be what they were at the start of the season or what they were at the end of the season, in terms of how the offense sort of changed, you know, I think J.K. dobbins got hurt and, you know, Justin Herbert, I think got healthy with the foot injury. So it's just a, you know, again, there was a few free agents that ended up just in somewhat dream situations, and I think this is one of them. You know, so goes to a team that was lacking a featured back, still doesn't have a. A complete backfill to his point, they could certainly still add somebody, but unless it's somebody of significance, you know, Naji Harris is another guy. A little bit different, you know, scenario from Kareem Hunt, but a player that coaches love, you know, because he doesn't miss time, he doesn't fumble, and he, you know, sometimes doesn't, you know, always, you know, hit the hole as hard as he possibly can. You know, we. We hear the tiptoe phrase a little bit with him from time to time, but, you know, still, four straight seasons of 1,000 yards. Three or four seasons with 36 plus catches. Again, the lack of fumbling, the consistency of just being available. I think for a coach like, you know, Harbaugh, that this is a player he sort of covets. So as long as he continues to do what he does, you know, he'll be a number two fantasy running back, maybe with a little bit more upside in this team, on this team than he had in Pittsburgh. So we'll see what the NFL draft tells us. But, you know, a guy that I would consider a top 20 fantasy option with the chance to maybe finish a little bit higher than that if he, you know, has the improvement on a new team, he won't go back to his rookie season, you know, where he's over 17 points per game. But you know, I could see 15 points per game.

[Adam]

I like the fact that they signed Becton too, because the interior offensive line was not good for the Chargers. Tackles are good, but not so much in the interior. I think I mentioned this last week, but Greg roman, I think 11 years as a play caller usually has a good offense, like a top 12 offense. Sometimes a great offense is running backs. Let's see, how many times did they finish top 20 per game? 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 times. His lead running backs have finished top 20 per game once, 22nd per game. So about half the time they've had a running back that's been top 20 per game or close to it. The only, I think the only real standout was Lashawn McCoy. Yeah, I would say that maybe I'm missing one now. Lashawn got there last year. Oh, Mark Ingram had that one year in, in Baltimore where he had five receiving touchdowns.

[Heath]

That's the, that's the path for Najee to have a top 12 season is go, go score 14 touchdowns or something.

[Adam]

Dobbins was RB18 per game last year.

[Tiki]

Right.

[Adam]

We gotta take a quick break here. We got a lot more players to talk about. Biggest rankings, movers. We'll get to the 49ers wide receivers. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today.

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[Adam]

Well, we can get back to Jackson Smith and Jigba. He was a big rankings riser for Jamie Heath. I think it was the. Jamie had a mic 11th, Heath, Adam, Mike 17th or something. And Dave about 15th, somewhere around there in the rankings.

[Tiki]

That's. Yeah, full PPR.

[Adam]

All right. So Dave, why don't you talk about Jackson Smith and Jigba and what round you think you'd take him in? Round 3 pick in full PBR.

[Tiki]

I don't think that that's too far off. I think probably toward the end of round three, somewhere in that range, hoping that he comes through with high target volume. We can talk about how much work Cooper cup might take away from him. We can talk about what his role will look like if he's lining up outside 50% of his routes, stuff like that. But there, there's just way too much there with him to just dismiss what could be a good year just because Cooper Cup's there and Marquez Valdez Scantling's there and Sam Darnold's there. I think this is a good opportunity for him to be one of the top target getters in the league this year. I don't think it'll be like top five, top 10. Yes. And that's what I'm gonna bank on when I draft JSN to be a quality number two wide receiver.

[Heath]

I, I'm glad Dave said his name first because I, I didn't want to be the guy who said his name first. But do you remember what Marquez Valdez Scantling did in the second half last year?

[Tiki]

He had some big plays.

[Heath]

He scored more touchdowns in eight games with the Saints than he did in 30 games with the Chiefs and Bills. And then he followed the offensive coordinator.

[Tiki]

Oh, I know.

[Heath]

To Seattle. I'm not, I'm not sure if Cooper cup and MVS and JSN all play 17 games.

[Tiki]

Sure.

[Heath]

Cooper cup and MVS average fewer targets combined per game than DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett did last year.

[Adam]

A lot of names right there.

[Heath]

Wait, so cup and MVS versus last year's DK and Lockett.

[Adam]

How about this? Let me tell you what happened in the last eight games of the season last year. This is When DK Metcalf came back from injury, so Jackson, Smith and Jigba, in his first seven games, he was actually on pace for 148 targets. Now that they were throwing the ball 40 times per game and JSN was, and this needs to be said, like JSN was terrible with those targets. He was on pace for 140. What did I say? No, I think I had that wrong. Sorry. He's on pace for 134 targets in the first seven games. That was with DK Metcalf and 775 yards on 134 targets. That is miserable. So then DK misses two games and JSN goes off like 12, well, 12.9 points against Buffalo, then 37 points against the Rams. It was amazing. Okay, so here's the last eight games of the year. DK is back and this is important because Seattle got much more run heavy. They averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game in those eight games. And we know they want to be more run heavy this year. JSN was the number 15 wide receiver overall. 25th per game in half PPR, 22nd per game in full PPR. He was on pace for a 132 targets and he actually did pretty well with them. 106 catches, about 1200 yards, six touchdowns on 100 and 32 targets. Metcalf was on pace for 100 targets. So we're looking at 100 and 32 for JSN and 100 for Metcalf. That's. And Lockett was almost invisible. He was on pace for 45 targets in those games. So let's start with that and tell me what you think about that. 132 for the number one guy, 100 for the number two guy, and then Lockett 45 target pace. I don't know what Ken Walker was in that stretch or whatever, but I.

[Heath]

I had JSN projected for 128 for next year.

[Tiki]

And if that's the case, then he shouldn't be a top 15.

[Adam]

She's gonna say that's bad.

[Jamie]

I'll take the over.

[Tiki]

Yeah, I would too. And on a per game basis last year DK and lock it combined for 11.55 targets per game.

[Jamie]

I mean I'll, I'll certainly take the L here looking silly on this one. But if, if the concern is 32 year old Cooper cup and Marquez Valdez scantling impacting what JSN going into his third year can be after what he's shown us going from year one to Year two. I mean, I'll be buying that all day long.

[Adam]

All right, let's go to the 49ers receivers. Who moved up more for you? Jamie, Ricky Pearsall or Juwan Jennings?

[Jamie]

They both kind of, you know, simultaneously and I think for. There's a little bit of a waiting game right now obviously because, you know, two things with Brandon iu, can they still trade him because, you know, there seems to be a market out there for him and. And they may want to get rid of his contract and two, you know, when's he going to return? You know, so does he. Does he make it back? Does he make it back early in the season? Right now I'd rather have Jennings and Pearsall than Brandon iu. And you know, that's sort of telling given what Ayuk at least start of his career look like. So, you know, Jennings I know was very up and down last year, had some big games. I like the way he closed the season with Josh Dobbs featuring him a little bit more toward that down the stretch on but I mean the way that these two guys closed the year, the final two games for Pierce all and you know, sort of after.

[Tiki]

You.

[Jamie]

Know, just things sort of settled for San Francisco because, you know, not only did Purdy miss the end of the season, but he was banged up a little bit downstretch. I think they're going to be the two leading receivers at least the first half of the year along with Kittle, clearly.

[Adam]

Does anybody like Pierce all better than Jennings?

[Tiki]

Not there yet.

[Jamie]

I'm very close though.

[Adam]

Yeah, I just like, I don't love the finish for. For Jennings. I know I. I did like the 10 targets and a half at Arizona in Week 18, but that was with his BFF Josh Dobbs, as you mentioned. I was just very underwhelmed by the finish. Let's see, like in his last seven games, he had more than 56 yards, 67 yards only once. Now, of course that does. That's not fair because weeks 10 and 11, he was awesome. He had 91 and 93 yards in those games. But I don't know, I almost feel like. I wonder if he just kind of hit his ceiling. Juwan Jennings and pure Saw might be a better player.

[Tiki]

I think you can make that argument.

[Jamie]

I totally agree with that. But what do you average? 14 PPR points per game on the nose. Like that's not a bad ceiling for where you're going to be drafting him.

[Adam]

It's terrific. Yeah. All right. How about Roma Dunes day? He's I'm going to give this one to you. This was a riser for Jamie. I actually I also wanted to ask if Romo dunesday is a riser, is DJ Moore also a riser? And you know, we talked a lot about Odunze this year, taking the next step. I feel like we haven't talked as much about DJ Moore bouncing back, I guess we would say. But what do you think about Odunze and more?

[Heath]

I hadn't really moved them much yet. Kind of just waiting to see on who the third wide receiver is going to be in Chicago. Keenan Allen's still a free agent, right?

[Adam]

Yep.

[Tiki]

Yes.

[Heath]

I don't like the idea that Keenan Allen goes out and finds, you know what, nobody else wants me any more than Chicago does. I'll just go back and ruin things for Roma Dunes again. So I'm just kind of patiently waiting at this time. It's a better offensive line. Caleb Williams should be a little better. I projected coming into the off season a little bit of an inefficiency bump for Roma Dunese, but I've not given him the target bump until we see where Keenan Allen signs and what they do at wide receiver.

[Tiki]

3.

[Jamie]

I'd be shocked if Keenan Allen goes back there. Everything you said is accurate, but I just think for a guy that's a West coast guy that has a chance to remember he's traded there, you know, so he didn't have an opportunity to. To pick where he wanted to go. Like now he has a chance to pick where he wants to go. I'd be shocked if he goes, you know, for a guy that played indoors in California, his, you know, collegiate career and his entire professional career, like, it just wouldn't seem to make much sense unless that's just the best money that he can get.

[Heath]

Well, and I don't know if money. I was just trying to think like, I guess maybe eras. Unless the Chargers want him back, there's probably California. Probably doesn't work. Yeah, that'd be a weird thing for them to do with the way they've handled this off season so far. Just desperately trying to get out from under money.

[Jamie]

Oh, he's not going to cost much. I mean, you know, if, if Cooper cup is. Is getting, you know, 15 million at his point, like that's a safe deal and that's not anything. I think that's going to kill anybody's salary cap at this point.

[Adam]

All right, well, let's say Kim now and is not back with the, with the Bears and he had 121 targets in 15 games, and he also had 14 end zone targets, which is a lot, you know. Then where would you be moving Odunse? Where is he now, Heath? And where would you move him?

[Heath]

He's right around wide receiver 36 for me. Right now. He'd probably be around wide receiver 26 for me.

[Adam]

Oh, if it's a huge jump. Yeah.

[Jamie]

All right, let's talk about him being Ben Johnson, slot guy. And we know what that's been.

[Heath]

We should remember, like, the difference between wide receiver 26 and wide receiver 36 is not a huge jump at all. It might be a point, might be a point and a half.

[Adam]

Okay. But 10 spots.

[Jamie]

It's a significant round difference, though.

[Adam]

Yeah. It's a big jump. You can't hide from that. That's a big jump. You're jumping over nine guys.

[Heath]

Yeah. Those nine guys, no one has any idea where they're going to finish in.

[Adam]

Well, you do because you're putting a dunes ahead of them, right? Yeah.

[Tiki]

And everyone will gravitate toward Odunze among those nine because of the upside that he brings. Because not everybody in that group of nine. And some names that could be in there could include. And I'm not speaking for eat. This is just what I'm looking at in my rankings. But the Niners guys, Zay Flowers, Jalen Waddle, Chris Olave, Jerry Judy, like, these are all the number three wide receiver candidates. How many of those guys have the same type of upside that Odunza has? Several of them do. But I think Odunze will be one of those trendy, popular breakout picks if there isn't a qualified number three receiver in Chicago. But also keep in mind that Cole Comet's there. He could effectively be that third target getter in Chicago's offense.

[Adam]

Why should I not?

[Jamie]

Their draft is going to be fascinating.

[Adam]

Why should I not draft DJ Moore ahead of jsn?

[Jamie]

Why should you not?

[Adam]

Yeah. Or should I?

[Heath]

I would.

[Jamie]

I have them three spots apart, so I have no problem with that. But I think both guys are certainly trending in the right direction.

[Adam]

DJ Moore is so weird. I can't stand DJ Moore. He's like a new wide receiver every season. It's just. It's so fright. Even in the half of this season, he became a new wide receiver. Like down the stretch. It's like super low 8 odd. All these catches.

[Jamie]

Look, he got both these guys. This is the reason why it's, it's, it's now a more attractive situation is the offensive line got better. The play caller certainly Got better. Everything from an environment standpoint, you know, assuming Caleb Williams, this isn't a total bust, is trending in the right direction. So for more and Odunze, you hope that they're just going to elevate their play because of the quarterback and, and the situation just being that much better than it was a year ago. Plus a big piece is gone.

[Adam]

Okay, so let's go. Oh, sorry. Wait. Well, last question before we go to the Fallers. Who do you think had a better rookie season? Okay. Better rookie season. Like if you look at these numbers and say, oh, I like this one better. Player A had 63 catches, 628 yards, four touchdowns on 93 targets, 63 for 628 and four on 93 targets. Player B had 54 catches, nine fewer 734 yards, about 106 more. 106 more. Three touchdowns, one fewer touchdown on eight more targets, 101 targets. So 54, 734 and three on 101 or 63. 628 and four on 93 targets. What do you think who's had better, better rookie season?

[Tiki]

Well, the. The b receiver averaged 8 1/2 ppr points per game on 5.9 targets per game and only had 3 games with 15 or more ppr points. I don't know how much better the other receiver was, but I would imagine the other receiver was a little bit better.

[Adam]

There's no right answer here. I just said, I'm just. These two are players are Roma Dunze and Jackson Smith and Jigba.

[Heath]

You said to me that's a lot of names earlier. That was a lot of numbers.

[Adam]

It was a lot of numbers.

[Heath]

I did not retain any of them.

[Adam]

Jackson, Smith and Jigba and Romo Dunes, they had, you know, somewhat similar rookie season. So I just thought because he had a pretty bad rookie season, I'd say.

[Jamie]

That'S great for Odunze then, Right?

[Adam]

Exactly.

[Tiki]

You're. You're making the point that there's a leap to be made for a second year, which is, you know, something that we've been talking about forever.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Tiki]

And it could absolutely hit Odunze. Can we rule out Heath? What's the percentage that Romo Dunes A finishes with more Fantasy Points than DJ Moore next year? It's low, but what is it?

[Heath]

No. 35.

[Tiki]

Wow.

[Heath]

1 and 3.

[Tiki]

Well, if that's the case, I'll take the chance on A Dunes A everywhere.

[Adam]

We got to get to our rankings fallers. Let's start with Breece Hall Breeze. Hall Was a rankings faller for Jamie. Let's see if Dave and Heath agree with that. Where did he move to in your rankings?

[Jamie]

Just slightly. I mean, went from top 15 to just outside, man. The reception's just, it's just, it's hard to anticipate him being heavily involved in the passing game with Justin Fields.

[Heath]

You, you were saying top 15 picks or top 15 running backs?

[Jamie]

Top 15 running backs.

[Heath]

Okay. He's 14 for me right now.

[Tiki]

Yeah, if, if I can get Breeze hall as one of the first 14 running backs off the board, I'll be pretty happy.

[Adam]

I think there's actually a pretty scary case here. Look at the catches for running backs with Justin Fields. Montgomery. See I, I haven't broken it down. Dalton versus Fields in 2021. But Montgomery had 42 catches in 13 games. He also had, I think seven rushing touchdowns in those games. That was in 2021. 2022. Montgomery had 34 catches in 16 games. 2023. Roshan Johnson had 34 catches in 15 games. We do not have a good history of running back catching passes from Fields. We also don't have a good history of running back scoring rushing touchdowns with Justin Fields. He is an absolute vulture. I mean, I think Najee Harris had like one carry inside the three yard line in the six games with Justin Fields. So Fields have four or six. I know I have it somewhere. I mean it was second but Fields.

[Jamie]

Rushing touchdowns last year at five.

[Tiki]

No, no carries inside the.

[Jamie]

Oh, carries. I'm sorry.

[Adam]

Okay. Yeah. Najee Harris scored only one rushing touchdown in six games with Fields. Fields had five rushing touchdowns in six games and he had four of six Steelers carries from the three yard line or closer when he was the starter. So he is not good for catches and not good for touchdowns. I think it's pretty interesting here for.

[Jamie]

Breeze hall and you got rebuilding offensive line and we'll see what the new regime thinks. But I think Braylon Allen's going to get some work too.

[Adam]

You forgot the word. Perennially and perennially rebuilding offensive line. Yeah, that offensive line looks horrible right now. All right. Yeah, those are some scary numbers. So who are some running backs behind Breeze Hall? Let's see if we could drop. Let's drop them even lower. Let's go. Who's behind him?

[Jamie]

I mean for now? Aaron Jones, James Connor.

[Adam]

Yeah, yeah.

[Jamie]

He's not falling much.

[Tiki]

Who do you have who's just above.

[Jamie]

Breeze hall for you right now? It's. This is the group I struggle with. So mixing is one that I'm struggling with. Just because Another offensive line that got destroyed, dismantled. I would take Ken Walker over Breeze hall right now. So that's one I have ahead of him.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

Trying to think I don't have it in front of me. I'm sorry.

[Adam]

That's okay.

[Heath]

I will say just to be a slightly more optimistic about the catches, he had a 19 running back target rate back in 2023. He had a 21 running back target rate last year. It's just that it was an Arthur Smith system. So seven of them went to Cordero, Patterson and Naji and Warren split. So there weren't a lot of catches for any player. But I do think like there's still a chance if hall can have 75 of the team's running back targets that he could, he could still have a decent catch season.

[Jamie]

But what do you consider to be decent for him?

[Heath]

Well, let's see If Fields throws four, what, 480 passes.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Heath]

20, 96 running back targets.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Heath]

So hall gets 70 targets, catches 50, 55.

[Adam]

I'm just piggybacking on your math. That all sounded really very, very good. Yeah. I have bad news for you. David Montgomery scored seven rushing touchdowns in 2021. Only two of them were with Justin Fields on the field. So. Oh, wow. This is, this might be, this might be one of the biggest impacts of free agency. And I completely, I feel like undersold it last week and I think one of you mentioned he, Breeze hall as a loser. I was like, oh, that's a good point. I think it was Heath at first. I'm glad we're talking about this because we're definitely gonna have to, definitely gonna have to look into this.

[Heath]

I will say like if you're worrying about a drop off from what he's been like, Breeze Hall's never really scored touchdowns. He doesn't have a season with more than five rushing.

[Tiki]

And talent wise, he's still very good.

[Adam]

Where did he.

[Tiki]

I don't think anybody's arguing that it's just the touchdown opportunities. Just the fact that what you said today just scares me for sure.

[Jamie]

You take away the touchdowns, you take away receptions. Like those are pretty significant things.

[Tiki]

Right?

[Adam]

Right, right.

[Jamie]

No, I'm saying I, I do think he's, he's certainly. Look, look, this isn't run away from Breece Hall. This is just the guy that went into last season the number two overall pick. I don't remember everybody else's ADP, CBS Sports ADP. He was number two overall pick. He was number two running back, number two overall player behind McCaffrey he clearly was a bust. He finished 15th. So where does he get back to? Does he stay in this range? Because now the offense is, at least on paper, looks worse. Because we had high expectations for Rogers coming back from the Achilles injury. We thought that this was going to be a team trending in the right direction and clearly things immediately fell apart. And so he's giving him 50 catches. I hope that happens. I mean, he's been a 50 cash guy the two years he's been healthy in the league. But we saw what his numbers looked like last season when Devonte Adams joined the roster. Granted, again, more, more of a, a quarterback that was going to throw to his running backs by comparison to the guy he has now. And so if he's not going to be an eight plus touchdown guy, I don't, you know, I'll, I'll let you guys decide if that's a appropriate number or not or a good line to set. But I would take the under on that and then if he's not, I would take the under on 50 catches as well, just given Justin Field's history. So I just think he's a, he's going to be a good number two fantasy running back with what could be somewhat limited upside. And that says a lot because he's so talented.

[Heath]

You ready for this fun stat, Adam? Reese hall has more touchdowns from outside of the 25 than inside of the five in his career.

[Adam]

Yeah, well, that's the thing. So you said eight touchdowns. He scored five rushing touchdowns last year, but he did score eight overall and he finished his RB17 per game in full PPR. And there was a big drop off when Devonte Adams got there because he took a lot of targets away from Breeze.

[Jamie]

He also got hurt.

[Adam]

Yeah, so. So I think the thing is with hall is if he can get back. You know, we said. Dave, you said something about questioning his talent. I just don't think he's really looked like that guy he was as a rookie. You know, since carrying his acl. If he gets back to that, which is possible, you know, another year removed and he makes those big plays. Look at his explosive play rate. 15 as a rookie. That's unbelievable. Only 80 carries, 6.7%, then 9.1%. Another thing we've seen is more carries for zero or negative yards. He's been worse there over the last two years than he was as a rookie.

[Tiki]

So I think that could be based on the O line.

[Adam]

It could be, but I also think it's. I just don't think he's been as explosive. Right. So if he can get that back, then Justin Fields won't really hurt him that much. Like, I don't know. I'd have to maybe think about Jonathan Taylor. I. I have to, you know.

[Tiki]

Yeah, you gotta take Taylor.

[Adam]

No, no, I mean, I'm thinking about Taylor with Richardson. It's kind of interesting. Like, Richardson really wasn't that good for Taylor. I think this is actually a pretty good comparison. I don't have this off. I don't have any notes.

[Jamie]

Like, an absolute monster.

[Adam]

Yeah. Richardson was out.

[Jamie]

Richard missed last two games.

[Adam]

Okay. But look at, just look at the targets. Look at the catches. They really weren't. And there were obviously times when Richardson stole touchdowns from him. So I would have to do the numbers. I don't have them in front of me. But I really feel like Richardson was not good for Jonathan Taylor. Like, he was probably better with Flacco or at least had better involvement if.

[Jamie]

If, if Taylor had a different quarterback. Taylor's a top three running back. Like, I think everybody's building in Richardson's potential to hurt. At least I am. I mean, the way, the way that Jonathan Taylor runs the ball. Like he's in the conversation to lead the NFL in rushing yards every year. If he were to get those chances.

[Tiki]

Taylor averaged 16.9 PPR points per game in 10 games with Richardson last year.

[Adam]

Including a 40 point game against Tennessee. That was the one, right? That was the Week 6.

[Tiki]

39.8. Like Week 16, Week 16.

[Adam]

He went bonkers. 29 carries, 218 yards, three touchdowns. He did not have a target in that game. And that was.

[Tiki]

That was one of two games on the year where both Richardson and Taylor were considered real good for fantasy. North of 15 PPR for Taylor.

[Adam]

Interesting.

[Tiki]

North of 22 for Richardson. Only twice last year. 10 games.

[Adam]

We've gone over our allotted time a little bit here. We're gonna have a long show today. All right, we got three more. We'll go quicker on these three more rankings followers here. Cooper cup for Jamie. CJ Stroud. This is all Jamie stuff. Cooper Cup, CJ Stroud and Debo Samuel. Go ahead real quick on those guys.

[Jamie]

Stroud lost two offensive linemen, and so far the only receiver that he's gotten was Christian Kirk. So don't like the situation to help his fantasy stock. So I don't know if he was necessarily a follower, but he didn't really rise very much. I shouldn't say he did fall. He did not. I don't like his potential to bounce back Right now after the disappointing sophomore season that he had cup to Dave's point, you know, was not somebody that I had high expectations for and landing in Seattle did not change that. And Debo Samuel is, is probably the more interesting one just because getting an opportunity to be on a team that likes to throw a lot of wide receiver screens has a quarterback that's clearly on the rise and ended up in a situation where can easily be number two on the team in targets. But I just feel like what he showed us last year is, is problematic, you know, so I don't, I don't love his opportunity to bounce back to a high level.

[Adam]

Is CJ Stroud a low upside guy now?

[Jamie]

Yeah.

[Heath]

Wasn't he always?

[Adam]

Well, for what it's worth, he was fifth or sixth in average draft position last year, so he certainly wasn't viewed that way.

[Tiki]

He had some monster games as a rookie when both Nico and Tank Dell were healthy. And I think that's, I think I remember thinking, all right, well, not only is he gonna have those guys next year, but he's gonna have Stefan Diggs too. He should be able to be one of the better fantasy quarterbacks. He regressed. His offensive line regressed. There was a report that the offensive line room was toxic and that's why they've moved on from so many guys. And it'll be, it's going to be a challenge for the Texans to re. To put that offensive line back together with a new play caller and with fewer weapons, especially the quality that we thought he had last year. And so yeah, he, he doesn't strike me as somebody that fantasy managers should get excited about either.

[Heath]

So why I did think he was a low upside guy last year and oh, just is, is it's really hard to be a 31, 32 pass attempt per game guy and not run and score a lot of fantasy points. Like you might have a weird year where you happen to throw a lot of touchdowns or where you happen to be really efficient. But for on the balance, if you're in the low 30s and pass attempts and you're running the ball two or three times a game, you're a low upside quarterback.

[Adam]

Okay. He's got a new offensive coordinator, Nick Kaley, who comes over from the Rams. I do hope that they throw the ball more. You're right, Heath. We could use some more pass attempts. Biggest difference, I think for Stroud, interceptions went up. It was super low as a rookie. Interceptions went up, but the deep balls just. That was the thing, right? He completed so many as a rookie 20 plus yard completions went down from 66 as a rookie to 42. His explosive per drop back went from 12% to 6.8%. Just needs to get that back and I don't know that he'll be able to really do that without taking.

[Heath]

Be hard to do without an offensive line.

[Adam]

Yeah. All right, that's it for today's show. Thank you all very much. We have FFT Express to record. I want to remind you again CBSSports.com FFT that's where you can go to sign up for our bracket challenge. If you win, you're in the podcast league and you get a year long subscription to Paramount. Plus if you come in second or third place, month long subscription to Paramount plus CBSSports.com FFT it's totally, totally free to enter and it's super fun and you're going to compete against all of us in the bracket challenge. And let's go Duke. We will talk to you on Wednesday on Fantasy Football Today.

[Dave]

Paramount Podcasts.

[Counselor]

What's up everyone? It's the counselor of Cash, Siya Najad from the Early Edge, a daily sports betting show powered by Sportsline and CBS Sports. If you're looking for the best bets, picks and analysis for the day in sports, we're your one stop shop. We are locked in with bets every day for the NBA, March Madness, golf, soccer and so much more. Download and follow us on Apple Podcast, Spotify and anywhere podcasts are found. Plus, subscribe to the SportsLine YouTube page to watch us live at 10am Eastern Time daily. Make sure to turn on those notifications so you don't miss a single pick all season long.

[Adam]

Good luck.