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11 Dynasty Players to Trade NOW + Rookie Takes w/ Adam Pfeifer! (03/21 Dynasty Fantasy Football Podcast)
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- [00:00]
Adam Pfeiffer
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Heath Cummings
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Adam Pfeiffer
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Heath Cummings
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- [01:08]
Adam Pfeiffer
The biggest event in Connor sports tips.
- [01:10]
Heath Cummings
Off March 18th and you don't want to miss a second of the heart pumping action.
- [01:14]
Adam Pfeiffer
Catch all the clutch shots, big time.
- [01:16]
Heath Cummings
Plays, upsets, Cinderellas, blue bloods and more. Tune in to the NCAA Men's Division.
- [01:22]
Adam Pfeiffer
1 Basketball Championship March 18th through April 7th on TNT True TV and stream on Max.
- [01:38]
Heath Cummings
Welcome to Fantasy Football today Dynasty. I am your host Teeth Cummings, joined today by my good friend Adam Pfeiffer. He's been on the show many times before. I'm sure that you're already following him, you're already reading the work that he's produced. It's fantastic. But Adam, thank you for being here and just tell everybody here at the top where they can find you.
- [01:56]
Adam Pfeiffer
Yeah, always enjoy these visits. Appreciate the time. Yeah, go to FTNFantasy.com doing a bunch of stuff. Obviously we have right now it's, it's heavy March Madness time obviously. So we have a ton of amazing content there which I am not a part of because we have people at that site that are way more knowledgeable with college hoops. But yeah, I mean if you obviously had already started but hopefully you were checking that out. And then of course we'll be wrapping up the football content with the draft coming up. I feel like this is quietly like the worst time for football and Dynasty because free agency is mostly done. We still have a couple players, we'll see where they land. And then it's like, okay, cool, the draft is around the corner, but that month is kind of annoying because it is also it's like both around the corner and still a ways out at the same time. And not much is going to happen. But I am, I'm excited for the draft. I'm ready, I'm. We'll talk about a couple of rookies today, but I'm, I'm just ready to see especially in a dynasty league where I pretty much own the entire first round. I'm excited to see where everybody goes.
- [02:59]
Heath Cummings
I will say it's like it is a little bit of a period in limbo because we've had some values change because of the free agent market and we think some values are going to change because the NFL draft we don't know who's and so we're going to talk today about some of our favorite dynasty buys and sells. I'm actually using the values over at Keep Trade Cut because those are a pretty good approximation of the consensus. And so I, I always tell people my trade chart is based on my views and these are how I view these guys. Keep Trade Cut kind of tells you how the community views guys. And so we will talk about at those prices some guys that we are buying and selling. But I want to get started with a few of Adam said it the rookie. The draft is coming up. I want to hear some of your rookie thoughts. So our three questions will be three rookie questions. Rank your top three running backs in this class. Not named Ashton Genti.
- [03:58]
Adam Pfeiffer
Yeah. So I think the consensus is obviously Amari and Hampton at the second spot. A lot of people I that I really respect believe he should be like in that same tier as Genti, just like a spot below him. He obviously crushed the combine. He's got the size, he has everything you want. Like he's got the potential to have 20 carries per game. He's got the speed, the athleticism. So he should easily be second. Then it gets interesting for me, I am pretty high on Quinshawn Judkins and I think if you are looking at more of a production profile type of standpoint, you can't just solely look at last year when he was splitting with Travion Henderson because back at Ole Miss like he once upon a time Zach Evans is like a five star prospect, right. And he made him almost irrelevant. And it's funny because not that I'm a huge film guy, I like to watch film but I remember Watching Zach Evans film when he was coming out and it's like when you watch the running back and you actually end up liking the offensive lineman more. I was like okay, who's Zach Evans? This is cool. Who's Quinshaw? Judkins. That's who I need to know about. So he, he was great. I think with between him and Trayvon like Travion projects as more of maybe the upside touches because he can rip off 30 plus yard runs and do more in the passing game. But Judkins, with his size, he had a really good combine. He's probably somebody that projects more to get 18 to 20 carries per game and goal line work. Whereas I don't see that happening for Drayvon Henderson. So I would have Quinshawn3I or I guess second behind Hampton in this situation and then I would have Trayvon. I still like Caleb Johnson. I didn't love the 40 time. I didn't think he was going to run like a 44 but I, I think 40 times also can get overrated. I think from watching him he looks and plays faster. So. But just based off upside and I think it sounds like the draft capital be a lot. Not a lot different, but pretty different between Henderson and Caleb Johnson. I'll put Henderson third.
- [05:58]
Heath Cummings
So I have Henderson, then Judkins and then Shrug emoji, right.
- [06:03]
Adam Pfeiffer
It could be like Samson if you like. Don't say it could be right.
- [06:05]
Heath Cummings
I like to have a Neil quite a bit. But I. I will say I think and we've had this debate over on the main show a few times here recently and I know Adam said he was on Henderson island with Dave and Jamie and I'm a Henderson guy. I think the way I'd probably put it, I think Judkins is a better rusher. But if we live in a PPR world, right. And I think Henderson might have like 60, 80 catch seasons and so I'll lean towards him because of the scoring system. Do any wide receivers in this class ever crack the top 12 in Dynasty?
- [06:44]
Adam Pfeiffer
It's gonna be tough. As much as I do like Tet, I think the best case for Tet could be like they would have to trade down probably. But like if you pair him with Drake May, because I'm really high on Drake May but we've seen like he's gotten comps like Drake London who's definitely been and probably still is a top 12 dynasty wide receiver. For me there's other players too. Like Luther Burden is so polarizing because on the high end I've seen comps like DJ Moore and Debo Samuel and those guys have been flirting with that top 12 at times in Dynasty, especially DJ Moore. But then there's like the, like it really comes down with Luther Burden if you've how you value production profile or film because production profile last year wasn't great but the year before was like age 19 elite breakout season. It's everything you want. But then you look at how he gets there and it's a lot of scheme stuff. It's a lot of slot usage. It's mostly only slot usage. And now on one hand that could be really bad because a lot of those players that are strictly in that mold, you look at the, you know, the low end comps he could potentially have of Malachi Corley, Curtis Samuel, some of these guys, Kaderius Toney maybe. But then that's also a way to get really high floor and high. Just give him two screen targets per game and give him like eight slot targets. Let him do stuff after the catch. So I think if he hits and his film is better than a lot of people suggest and he does go first round to a good team. Burden, if he really hits, I could see. But it'll be, I think it'll be pretty hard. Not just, not because these players aren't talented, just the draft classes we've seen before. These guys, I mean right. Last year, the years before. It's just those guys feel pretty cemented. Especially last year when you have, you know, Ladd, Brian Thomas, all these guys. So.
- [08:26]
Heath Cummings
And I think that the other name obviously is Travis Hunter. If exactly full time wide receiver then, then maybe he like that could be.
- [08:33]
Adam Pfeiffer
The spot because if he goes to the Patriots, maybe they view him as a wide receiver because they brought in, they already have Gonzalez they brought in. Why am I blanking on who they brought in a corner? But if they view him as strictly as a wide receiver. Yeah, now we're talking, right?
- [08:47]
Heath Cummings
Question number three, is Carlton Davis, by the way, is Tyler Warren going to be the tight end three in Dynasty soon?
- [08:56]
Adam Pfeiffer
I mean he's going to get top 20 draft capital probably you can make the case as soon as he drafted. Just because 1 and 2 are pretty locked with Bowers and McBride. Like if you ranked him third at tight end, right. Say he goes to Denver, say he goes to the Chargers, right. You could talk me into third right now.
- [09:14]
Heath Cummings
Yeah.
- [09:15]
Adam Pfeiffer
And it's not. I don't think Warren is anywhere close to Bowers as a prospect. But it's just like that third spot is really up for grabs.
- [09:23]
Heath Cummings
Right.
- [09:23]
Adam Pfeiffer
Like, it's probably Laporta right now for sure. Then you have Hawkinson, like, but Kincaid bust potentially Pitts. We know it's not happening. Like there's really. And then you have the. Obviously the veterans like Andrews, like Kelsey, like those guys are way down there because of their age. So honestly I think it's. Yes. And I guess the question more is like how soon?
- [09:44]
Heath Cummings
Right? Yeah, yeah. This year it could happen. But Laporta could also take it back this year.
- [09:51]
Adam Pfeiffer
If you told me that he goes, whatever, 20th or 21st, whatever Denver's at and he's there. Well, I guess he might not now with Evan Ingram there, but it maybe goes to the Chargers. Right. Like, do you like him more than Laporta?
- [10:08]
Heath Cummings
I will probably need to. Like, I'm always a little bit slower on the tight end, so I'll probably need to see him do it.
- [10:13]
Adam Pfeiffer
For sure.
- [10:14]
Heath Cummings
He'll. He'll probably be fourth for me, probably be ahead of Hawkinson, but. And they're just usually not with Bowers, obviously not with Laporta. There's usually so much patience needed with these tight ends.
- [10:27]
Adam Pfeiffer
Yeah, this is weird.
- [10:28]
Heath Cummings
I'm not had a stretch where rookie.
- [10:30]
Adam Pfeiffer
Tight ends were doing nothing and back to back seasons they're doing everything.
- [10:33]
Heath Cummings
That's exactly right. Let's take a short break and then get into our favorite Dynasty buys and sells Spring starts with savings at the Home Depot. So if you're working on getting your yard spring ready, you'll need the right.
- [10:47]
Adam Pfeiffer
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- [10:50]
Heath Cummings
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- [11:09]
Adam Pfeiffer
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- [11:34]
Heath Cummings
Affiliates, Northbrook, Illinois did have one comment right at the start of the show. Thank you. Will says CMC has to be a sell this year, right? Don't you think? His bilateral Achilles tendonitis is going to act up and cause him to miss games. And that kind of is a I think a good jumping off point for like cells and buys are based for me largely upon value. What does everyone else think of them? I did go look at McCaffrey just to see he's currently RB17 over at Keep trade cut and it's a good time to mention that they already have their rookies in the charts so Judkins is ahead of him, Henderson is ahead of him, Hampton is ahead of them, Genti is ahead of him. So that'd make him RB13amongst players who are currently in the NFL. I've got him at RB16. So yeah I think if you like if you can get that value that I'm not sure RB13 is quite taking into account the full risk of McCaffrey. At the same time Saquon Barkley's my RB5. I wouldn't be all that surprised if McCaffrey is better than Saquon Barkley this year.
- [12:44]
Adam Pfeiffer
Like he might be surprised if McCaffrey was the best player in fantasy this year.
- [12:47]
Heath Cummings
Exactly. His his range of outcomes and I've made this comparison before and it's a good way to jump into my buys is it reminds me a lot of Justin Fields and Anthony Richardson right now. Except even more extreme because McAffrey might play a couple games and the injuries are too much and we just never see good Christian McAffrey again. Or he might be the best player in fantasy. Yeah, Fields and Richardson my two buys at the quarterback position and I know a lot of people immediately are going to say they might be not worth nothing. Well they're not worth much right now. They are currently QB 26 and QB 27 over on Keep trade cut at that cost. You don't find quarterbacks in that range of value that have the potential to give you a top five season and I think both of these guys have the chance this year to give you a top five season. Yes, they also might lose their jobs but these are the if you can find this much upside for this cheap of a cost, I think you have to take that swing and I'll be trying to take that swing this off season. Adam, I got a couple of questions last week on the mailbag. Maybe it was earlier this week on the mailbag about should I just accept this second round pick and in super flex for Anthony Richardson. I'm so scared of what's about to happen. I'm happy to give up around 2 pick for Richardson or Fields right now.
- [14:14]
Adam Pfeiffer
In Super Flex Yeah, I mean if you told me Justin Fields plays the majority of the season, like, I think his floor is quarterback 15. Like, I just don't see him being worse than that. And then Richardson, like, yeah, everybody's talking about Daniel Jones, but like, and we're just talking about like the downside of, okay, what if Richard loses his job? Like, what if he doesn't? His floor is probably pretty high too. He had a handful of really good fantasy weeks to end the season last year, and those were in games where Jonathan Taylor was literally getting 30 carries. So I like that especially obviously super flex. Like, it's hard to get quarterbacks, but quarterback 2070 set for field is kind of crazy to me. I, I think that should be updated quite a bit based off the fact that he has a starting job right now. And I would like to see the jets get a better second receiver, but we know he can run for 700 to a thousand yards. And I, I just think like I finally started redraft rankings yesterday and Fields I think was like QB12 for me. So I just don't see him being worse than like QB15 if he starts a majority of the season.
- [15:19]
Heath Cummings
Another guy whose value certainly is volatile for the next month and a half, DeAndre Swift. With what the Bears may or may not do at the running back position. But over on keep trade cut, he's currently RB35 in the Dynasty rankings. And, and I think people look at what happened with Ben Johnson, they say, you know, Jamal, I said it. Jamal Williams scored all those touchdowns. Ben Johnson obviously hate DeAndre Swift, but even in that tandem he was more valuable than this ranking. And Swift is a guy who 26 years old. If things click this second time with Ben Johnson, we might get a couple of top 12 seasons out of DeAndre Swift. I've got him valued as RB18. Now that's without the rookies, I'd probably have three or four rookies ahead of him. So if you want to say RB22, still 12 spots ahead of where he is valued by the consensus. Are you buying DeAndre Swift at an RB35,36 cost? And I'll just tell you the other guys that, that are in that range are. I'll pull that up in a second. I thought I had his name right here on the list. What do you think of Swift and kind of the volatility with the new coach, the potential of the Bears drafting a running back. What does this future look like?
- [16:42]
Adam Pfeiffer
So with the moves the Bears made in the off season with the offensive line Drew Dahlman, Joe Tunney, everybody they brought in. I feel like now it's this set in Stone Lock that Genti is going there, but like he has to be there first. Like the Raiders could take him, right? And unless they get Genty or Hampton, like that's the only way I could see Swift just becoming like a 30 snap, like six touch per game type of player in this offense. Then you have the fact that everybody's so focused on how Ben Johnson kind of, you know, wasn't a fan of Swifts and they moved on from him. But DeAndre Swift, you look at that stretch early last season, granted they were all in good matchups, but he, he was a top 12 running back in most of those weeks. It was really good. And we talked about the offensive line upgrade being good for Caleb Williams and whoever the running back they draft is. And I do think they draft a running back, but that could still apply to DeAndre Swift. I don't see a scenario where again, unless they draft Genti and it's midway through the season that Swift is just relegated to a backup role entirely. So RB35 is, especially for a team that's like loaded at wide receiver, good at tight end, good quarterbacks, a little thin at running back. You don't need DeAndre Swift to become a top 10 player at that price tag. And he can kind of be one of those underrated kind of roster players on your roster to really fill it out. So I like that. And again, I think really, unless it's Hampton or Genty, I'm not freaking out about Swift, especially at that price.
- [18:21]
Heath Cummings
Just a reminder that 2022 season, he had only 99 rush attempts in 14 games. He was RB17 on a PER game basis that year. So yeah, yes, he's probably going to share with someone else. I don't think he's going to get 20 touches per game, but you don't need it. If Ben Johnson's offense works as it has worked, the offensive line should definitely be better. He's been wildly efficient in the past. He's been used as a pass catching back in the past. We expect this offense will have plenty of targets for the run. Running backs go by DeAndre Swift at that cost. I found the list. Here are the five running backs directly ahead of Swift currently Taije Spears, Ramandre Stevenson, Jonathan Brooks, Tank Bigsby and Jordan Mason.
- [19:11]
Adam Pfeiffer
Yeah, I mean the only player that, I mean obviously Mason, if he becomes the starter at any point. But like you're, you're with Tajie Spears. If Swift loses work. He's probably getting the same work Spears gets. Right, so right. And he's probably no, I don't want to say probably. I mean we still have to project for the Bears, but they'll be a better offense in Tennessee. So yeah, I the only one that really makes it somewhat compelling is Mason, but that would probably be more of a next year or two years or two years from now, I think, because I think this is probably the last year Aaron Jones is there.
- [19:46]
Heath Cummings
Yeah, I, I, I would think that's the case at the wide receiver position. I've been on an island here at CBS on this guy, so hopefully you will have some Optus optimism as well. Although I'm not sure how much optimism you have to have to buy Debo Debo Samuel currently wide receiver 50 over on the keep trade cut values I like this fit a lot in the Cliff Kingsbury offense with Terry McLaren working the deep part of the field, Debo taking the underneath stuff. Maybe a few of those targets that went to Zach Erz last year can go to Debo even though Ertz is still going to be there and we've seen him have a really disappointing efficiency season in the past and then bounce back the next year. I'm not sure he was ever fully healthy last year. I think Washington probably throws more this year than San Francisco did last year. Not worried about the target volume opportunity now that he's gotten away from Iuk, KD McAffrey, Joanne Jennings. I think this could be a nice bounce back year for Debo Samuel. And again wide receiver 50 he's cheap enough to where you're not risking much.
- [20:50]
Adam Pfeiffer
So as I tend to do when I come on the show Heath, I like to plug the FTN fantasy stats up because it's just so fun to look through all the stuff. So when he got traded to Washington I wanted to look at some of the stats because everybody knows Deebo had a down 2023 season, right? 2024 season. Sorry. But he, like you mentioned is a pretty good fit for this offense we remember. I remember back in the preseason we were waiting where's the Jaden Daniels deep balls to Terry McLaurin? It was all the screen stuff and it felt like it was okay. They're probably just trying to hide stuff from other teams. They don't want to show everything on tape. But jaden Daniels and McLaren still had one of the best deep ball connections in the league, but this was still a very very screen heavy offense. Jayden Daniels last season 4.1 screen attempts per game 6 most among quarterbacks Debo again down 2024 season. I'm sure the instance where he had pneumonia didn't help but in 2023 just based off screen passes alone according to the stats hub 30.8% explosive play rate which was 6 best in the league 16 yards after the catch perception was easily first and he was fifth in EPA per target. Off screens again you wonder is he the same explosive player? That's fair, but they were giving a lot of these screen targets to Alamede Zakias, Zach Ertz Like I'm pretty excited about Debo just based off the fit in the offense and the fact that we saw Jane Daniels already play how he did. We know this will be a borderline elite offense. So Debo yes you you obviously don't, you know trade for him if you are rebuilding. But again contending team could use a little bit more firepower on offense at wide receiver, somebody that could probably give you a decent floor and there's still some upside weeks. Plus I fully expect a couple carries per game from Debo as well.
- [22:33]
Heath Cummings
So Yep, nice. We've got one more and it is Travis Kelsey. I I almost feel like his value is still factoring in some risk of him retiring because he's currently tight end 21 over at keep trade cut a list of guys who are currently ahead of him. Brenton Strange, Cole Comet, Jake Ferguson, Pat Friarmuth, Cade Otten. He's not the same guy that he was. I'm not trying to make that argument at all. And there is plenty of target competition in Kansas City. He might just be a one year buy, but I think it's worth remembering that in a terrible year last year where he only scored three touchdowns, he averaged 12.3 fantasy points per game. He was better than Mark Andrews. He was better than Sam Laporta. He was better I think than all of the guys whose names I just mentioned. I as a contender if I can buy Travis Kelsey at a tight end 21 cost and maybe solve my tight end position for the year that I'm chasing a championship 100 it especially at.
- [23:37]
Adam Pfeiffer
Tight end too right? Like if you're contending age really doesn't matter because outside of the top three four players at the position, I mean we're hoping some of these guys get the 10 PPR points per game probably. And Kelsey showed in a down year like you mentioned he was over 12 with not saying Kelsey's going to come out and have 12 touchdowns but like laughably low touchdown production for a player of Kelsey's caliber. So yeah it's obviously very case specific. You have to be not only contending but I would say you probably have to be one of the three best teams in the league to even trade Kelsey or trade for Kelsey. But yeah, I mean especially a tight end with how just middling most of the position is. Kelsey at his elevated age can still be top five PPR points per game.
- [24:24]
Heath Cummings
So that's my dynasty buys Justin fields, Anthony Richardson, DeAndre Swift, Debo Samuel, Travis Kelsey. Remember those costs that we talk about because that's what make them buys. I don't want you to go out there and overpay for these guys. But they're cheap right now. Go get them cheap. You had a buy or two of your own right Adam?
- [24:42]
Adam Pfeiffer
Yeah, I'm really I think I talked about this player last time I was on this podcast with you actually. But it's Roma dun like I'm so high on him I don't really value not value but I don't really look into how he did last season because it was really bad circumstance. You look at according to the stats hub 27% of his targets were either go or post routes. And then Caleb Williams was like one of the worst deep ball passers in the league. He was under 28% of his deep balls he completed. So you bring in Ben Johnson who will probably use Roma dunze not exclusively in the Amon Ross St. Brown role but you look at last season on targets with a player in pre snap motion. Amaranth St. Brown had almost 20, DJ Moore had 16, Jameson Williams had 11 and then you go all the way down to Roma dude who had six all year. That's going to change. He's still going to get some vertical routes which will be good and Caleb Williams will probably have more time and feel more comfortable passing down the field because of the offensive line upgrades. And then you have the fact that I think it was 40 something percent of Roma Dunes air yards were deemed uncatchable. That was one of the highest rates in the NFL. Just everything should be better for Roma dunes a Caleb is still going to we all love Caleb to break out. We all love Ben Johnson. We should be getting pieces of this entire offense. And then you also have the fact that Keenan Allen 8.1 targets per game no longer with the team. I'm all in on Rome. I know the I looked at the the values and the rankings for him on keep trade cut. He is still relatively high but I am so high in the player, the offense, the the change in scheme for him that I'm willing to. To pay up for Roma Dunes. I just think he's. I think we forget too quickly because of what Ladd and Brian Thomas did. You know, guys that were drafted after him. But I still think Rome is an awesome player.
- [26:28]
Heath Cummings
No, I agree. 100. I looked at the values. He's basically tied in value with Ted McMillan and you look.
- [26:35]
Adam Pfeiffer
Yeah, that's not close for me.
- [26:36]
Heath Cummings
Look at the Rookie rankings. Ted McMillan, currently the 103 in the rookie rankings, projected draft, order of rookie drafts, if you will. Are you giving up your 20, 25. 103 for Roma Dudze.
- [26:51]
Adam Pfeiffer
Super flex or non super flex?
- [26:53]
Heath Cummings
This is super flex, but cam ward's actually 104.
- [26:56]
Adam Pfeiffer
Right. That's the thing. It's different quarterback class too. I'm also. I'm just naturally higher on Rome too. So I. I think I would.
- [27:06]
Heath Cummings
I think that the other side of that question is like, maybe you're trading a rookie pick, but that. That math kind of doesn't work as well. You can look at it also in terms of the veterans, and there is a veteran that I've kind of talked a little bit about maybe selling. If you're moving towards a rebuild, would you deal A.J. brown for Roma? Dunze.
- [27:33]
Adam Pfeiffer
That probably feels. Depending on your teams and both rosters, it feels pretty even.
- [27:38]
Heath Cummings
Right.
- [27:39]
Adam Pfeiffer
I've got. I'd be fine making that trade. Whichever. Whichever way you were going about it, right?
- [27:44]
Heath Cummings
Like, you're okay if you want. If you're a contender dealing Rome for Brown and you're okay if you're rebuilding. Trading.
- [27:50]
Adam Pfeiffer
I would probably slightly lean Rome just in a vacuum, but I think it'd be a lot tougher if this was a different Philadelphia team, which we'll talk about in a little bit with a. With the second player from the Eagles. But I would lean Rome, but I'm fine with it. If you're trying to contend and you have to give up Rome. I would try my absolute hardest not to, but I think it's pretty close.
- [28:12]
Heath Cummings
You also had Khalil Shakir as a buy. He's currently wide receiver 41 over a keep trade. Cut two spots ahead of Keon Coleman, his teammate. You strongly prefer Shakira to Coleman.
- [28:24]
Adam Pfeiffer
Yeah, it just shouldn't be that close to me. And then there's players around him like Cortland Sutton, Jerry Judy. Like, I'd rather have Shakir over those guys. He has the contract extension, so you're good on that front. Josh Allen's got the reworked contract, so he's in Buffalo at least till 2030. So Khalil Shakira, he's not your prototypical one wide receiver for a team, but he's this team's default one because they spread the ball around so much. This is Josh Allen's guy, this is who he trusts. He was obviously pretty good floor last season. One of the best third down receivers in the league. Can do a lot after the catch. I just think he's going to give you like a top 30 season consistently in this offense with you know, he's not going to ever give you a top 15 season most likely but he. I'll be shocked barring health that he slips out of the top 30 very often these next handful. Four or five years he's in Buffalo.
- [29:15]
Heath Cummings
Jalen Wright may have a bigger opportunity with Raheem Mostert in Las Vegas. He's currently RB43 over at Keep trade cut. Do you what's your level of concern that that a month and a half from now Jalen Wright's the RB3 again?
- [29:34]
Adam Pfeiffer
Yeah, I mean who knows with with Mike, Mike McDaniel and everybody in Miami. But I think obviously the first part was Moster. He was starting to really lose work anyway last year, but now he's in Las Vegas. I don't think they want to give DeVont. There were some games where H and was getting like 22, 23 touches. I think they want him in that like 14 to 18 range which gives opportunity for Jalen Wright, especially with the pace this offense plays at. And I think there's upside for pass catching running backs in this offense. We saw it last year with HN just because of the way teams have to defend this Miami offense. TUA According to the stats hub, he faced too high coverage at the highest rate in the NFL and he actually ended up checking the ball down a lot. I think that's one of the huge reasons why Johnny Smith was as good as he was last season. So if Jalen Wright's getting like seven to 10 touches per game, that'll be good enough to start in some weeks as a pinch. Like I think I would like to trade for him just if people are sleeping on him especially that happens a lot with Dynasty. People get impatient. They drafted him, he didn't do anything as a rookie and it's like, okay, he's probably done. Circumstances obviously change and have changed for him and I also think we're talking about buys and sells. I think if you have Jalen right, he is one of the best holes you can have right now. So if I have John right I'm not moving him. If I want some more depth at running back with some upside, definitely would like to try to trade for him.
- [30:53]
Heath Cummings
There's, there's a collection of second year backs ranked in that 40 to 50 range. In the in the consensus running back rankings it's Braylon Allen, it's Jalen Wright, Isaac Garendo. Blake Corum is right, your favorite of that group.
- [31:10]
Adam Pfeiffer
It's Garendo pretty easily now but it's tough because Corum I liked as a player but I believe he was also a little bit of an older prospect.
- [31:22]
Heath Cummings
Right.
- [31:23]
Adam Pfeiffer
And then you have the fact that he's had the injuries and the first year they clearly showed no interest in, you know, lightning Kyron Williams workload. So I probably rank it Garendo pretty easily and then Jalen Wright, Blake Cormer relatively close. I'll lean Jalen right. I think there's better chance of standalone value for him right now.
- [31:41]
Heath Cummings
Let's take a short break and then we'll get to our Dynasty sells. Today AT T Mobile, I'm joined by a special co anchor.
- [31:49]
Adam Pfeiffer
What up everybody? It's your boy Big Snoop deal.
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Heath Cummings
Double G Snoop where can people go to find great deals?
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Adam Pfeiffer
Head to T mobile.com and get four iPhone 16s with Apple Intelligence on us plus four lines for 25 bucks.
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Heath Cummings
That's quite a deal Snoop. And when you switch to T Mobile you can save versus the other big guys. Comparable plans plus stream respect when we.
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Adam Pfeiffer
Up out of here. See how you can save on wireless.
- [32:11]
Heath Cummings
And streaming versus the other big guys.
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Adam Pfeiffer
@T mobile.com/apple intelligence requires iOS 18.1 or.
- [32:15]
Heath Cummings
Later more rewards, more savings with American Express Business Gold earn up to $395 back in annual statement credits on eligible purchases at select shipping, food delivery and retail subscription merchants including the $155 Walmart plus monthly membership credit and $240 flexible business credit. Enjoy the benefits of membership with the AMEX Business Gold Card Terms apply. Learn more at americanexpress.com business-gold MX Business Gold Card built for business by American Express all right, we are back and we have a handful of Dynasty cells for you here. But I want to start with a guy who I put him on my list. I asked Adam for his cells before he saw the list he gave me the same guy. It's Tyrone Tracy, currently RB23 over at Keep Trade Cut. Now we've talked a lot on this show o over the years about how if you have a day three or A UDFA running back who really pops in that rookie season. You need to be really, really careful about betting too much on that carrying over. We saw that with Tracy. He had warts too. He had the fumble issues. I don't really still believe that he is a feature back in the NFL. And RB23 with the rookies factored in. So really, RB18 or 19, when you're just talking about the guys who have been in the. Seems way too high for me.
- [33:41]
Adam Pfeiffer
Yeah. And I literally traded Tyrone Tracy on Monday. So.
- [33:45]
Heath Cummings
Great. What'd you trade him for?
- [33:47]
Adam Pfeiffer
I traded. So this is a team where I. This is the same league where I have like the entire first round. So I'm gonna draft like so many running backs anyway and I'm still probably at best a year away from even making noise in this league. Right. That team also has Roma Dunes by the way. So I am. I'm practicing what I preach. I saw a team that can contend but needs a little bit of help at running back. Also has Devin Singletary, so it doesn't hurt. I wanted to move back up into the first round. So I again, I guess more. I traded Tyrone Tracy in a mid second and got the 110 Tyrone Tracy.
- [34:21]
Heath Cummings
And a mid second. So on my trade chart that's six and a half points of value and the 110 is eight. So you absolutely crushed it. Great job on that deal.
- [34:35]
Adam Pfeiffer
I was just going to say, I just think like people forget Tyrone Tracy is going to be 26 in November. This will be his second NFL season. And I always go back to when you have players who are either undrafted or late running back selections and they pop as rookies. I go back to James Robinson. Like if you didn't trade James Robinson after that you were pro. You probably set your dynasty team back. And that's not saying every. It's not saying Tyron Tracy is going to be James Robinson where he has one year, then completely falls off the face of the earth. But if you are not the Eagles, the Colts, the teams of these elite running backs or elite running back rooms, you have to be concerned. This team is going to draft a running back on in April. You just have to be the class. Is that good. And I think Tracy like I think was week six where he finally took over the job. He was okay. He was like 12.2 or 13.5 PPR points per game. His efficiency metrics weren't great though. You look at that stretch from week five on, actually he was outside the top 40 running backs in success rate he was out to the top 30 in EPA per rush attempt. Like he was fine, but nothing special. And if he's not anything special as a late rookie running back selection, the team is going to look elsewhere if they can. And the Giants, I believe, have eight picks in the draft, two in the third round.
- [35:56]
Heath Cummings
So I think a lot of people will agree with the Tracy call. We both do. Still, the fact that he's valued at RB23 means you might have an opportunity to sell him to somebody who is.
- [36:06]
Adam Pfeiffer
Who is he around?
- [36:07]
Heath Cummings
Just looking at those particular rankings we've got, you know, Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, Caleb Johnson, David Montgomery, Chuba Hubbard are the five back in front of him.
- [36:26]
Adam Pfeiffer
Chuba's not even old. Chuba should be ahead of him, but like that's.
- [36:28]
Heath Cummings
The five backs behind him are Najee Harris, Zach Charbonnet, Brian Robinson, Trey Benson, Cam Scatter.
- [36:35]
Adam Pfeiffer
Yeah, I mean I would like Harris to be on more than a one year deal, but I hope take most of those guys.
- [36:42]
Heath Cummings
I hope that that list of running backs from basically RB18 through RB28 kind of helps reflect to all of you who are listening, the current state of the running back position because there's not a lot of sure things outside of the top eight or nine. I mentioned Brian Robinson, he was actually one of my cells and his value has been falling, but still he is RB27. I kind of view RB27 as like my mean expectation for a Brian Robinson season, but it doesn't feel like there's anything being factored in about the risk of Brian Robinson getting replaced in a month and a half. I'm not sure he's ever going to be a real difference maker on your team anyway. And I just don't want to carry that type of risk this time time of year.
- [37:35]
Adam Pfeiffer
Heath, how many running backs have legitimately three players that will take carries from them in some capacity? Brian Robinson, actually, no, probably James Cook too. As much as I love him.
- [37:48]
Heath Cummings
Oh, I hate that whole situation. I love James Cook, but.
- [37:53]
Adam Pfeiffer
Yes, but we also know that he's going to be as efficient as it gets, so.
- [37:57]
Heath Cummings
And he's. Yeah, he's really good. So that's the big difference there.
- [38:00]
Adam Pfeiffer
And at least Josh finally ran last season. But we, you know, always have to have a Bill's tangent in some capacity when I'm here. Brian Robinson is right now. We already saw them clearly want to give Jaden Daniels inside the five rushing attempts. Echler will play on third downs. Debo will get not only maybe three carries per game, but If Brian Robinson is running a route, guess who's running a route? Probably in the same area of the field. So I think his ceiling and floor are kind of low in this offense, which is weird because it was just this elite offense. They should still be really good, and Brian Robinson's still going to be fine. But I like this call a lot because what is the best case scenario for him in terms of production? I don't know.
- [38:48]
Heath Cummings
It's like a low end RB2, I think.
- [38:50]
Adam Pfeiffer
Right. Like, if he finishes as running back 23 or 22, you're probably like, all right, fine. That's probably around what I expected.
- [38:58]
Heath Cummings
Little wins, big losses. And I. I just think, like, this is a rare situation. I'll tell you, going through this exercise, comparing my rankings to consensus, you do come to realize that none of us geniuses, we're all kind of thinking the same thing about 90 of the players. But this is a rare situation where DeAndre Swift is ranked about 10 spots lower than where I would rank him. Brian Robinson's about 10 spots higher than where I would rank him. And I would absolutely make that trade straight up.
- [39:26]
Adam Pfeiffer
Yeah.
- [39:26]
Heath Cummings
And it looks like just about everybody else would do it the other way.
- [39:29]
Adam Pfeiffer
Who averages more touches per game? Say. Say the Bears don't get Genti. Give them any other player you want in this class, but it's not Genti who averages more touches per game, Robinson or Swift.
- [39:39]
Heath Cummings
Oh, that's. I mean, that's a. That's a great. You're setting each one at minus 110, I think. I think that's. That's a.
- [39:44]
Adam Pfeiffer
That's a great. Swift is what? RB35 and Robinson's 27, I think you said.
- [39:48]
Heath Cummings
Right. And they're basically the same age.
- [39:50]
Adam Pfeiffer
And Swift's probably going to catch more passes. And. Yeah, that. That's a really good shout by you with the comparison between the two. And again, at the end of the day, we talked about it, we led with it. It's. It's all about value.
- [40:03]
Heath Cummings
That was a lot of agreement. I think we may get to the point where we get some disagreement here, because everybody loves Justin Herbert. He. He is an exceptionally talented quarterback. I'm not going to say anything bad about Justin Herbert. And people get frustrated sometimes when I cite what a guy did last year or what a guy's done the last three years. And I always try to remind them that, like, the most predictive thing about how many fantasy points someone's going to score next year is how many fantasy points they scored last year. What you have to do if you want to make an argument they're going to be better or worse than that is explain the why. And I think it's worth noting that in 2022 Justin Herbert scored 19.3 fantasy points per game in CBS scoring and he was QB17. In 2023 Justin Herbert scored 20.9 fantasy points per game and he was QB10 last year Justin got got the new the new coaching staff. Justin Herbert scores 19.1 fantasy points per game and he's QB16. So that's three seasons in a row of QB10 to QB17, production 20 to 21 fantasy points per game and he's currently QB7 over at Keep trade cut. In terms of the consensus value, I don't think he's at the point any longer. Like he's still young but he's not at the point where at the quarterback position, especially in the landscape of dynasty quarterback rankings at 27 years old he's not getting a discount for that anymore. Most there are more guys ahead of him in my rankings. I have them at 12 that are younger than him than older than him. What's the argument for Herbert as a top seven dynasty quarterback or you just agree this is also a sell.
- [41:54]
Adam Pfeiffer
I feel a lot better about it if DK Metcalf was playing on this team and he actually got to play in warm weather, that's for sure. The one thing I will say about Herbert that could be the difference you look at. Obviously it was this run centric offense with the Chargers which we fully expected. I was at least a little bit curious with Greg Roman coming in if they'd actually utilize Herbert's legs a little bit more. And they did. He went up to about a 15% design rush rate the year passed. It was around 11 to 12% so it went up a little bit. We saw that a little bit. I still at the end of the day think you're hoping it gets to like 500 pass attempts which he barely got last year. I believe he was again a high end quarterback too. But I, I think we have to kind of despite the arm talent, the amazing talent he is and we've seen him in the past when the Chargers were on the opposite end of the spectrum. The most pass heavy team in the league. We see, we see them be a top five quarterback in fantasy. I don't think that's the team this is going to be. I don't think that's the volume we're going to see from him. So I think we just have to continue to treat him as a high end quarterback too despite the age, the talent, the production, the the immense upside. Just like again it's not even just the fact that they haven't had anybody yet. They also lost Josh Palmer. So it's Quentin Johnson, it's lad McConkey and that's really nothing else. I think Herbert's should be again viewed as a high end quarterback too. But again if I would feel a lot different if they had a just a true real difference making wide receiver opposite lead.
- [43:26]
Heath Cummings
I don't know why you hate Quentin Johnson.
- [43:28]
Adam Pfeiffer
No Johnson made plays. If you go back and watch it was literally 85 just I don't know how he scored all blown coverage every single week but he did so shout.
- [43:37]
Heath Cummings
Out to him so and again we got a comment in the chat about how not worried about Herbert especially if he gets a tight end this year and I'm not.
- [43:46]
Adam Pfeiffer
Yeah no yeah I'm not worried about.
- [43:48]
Heath Cummings
Him right at all but he's currently being valued as QB7 and I just don't I mean he'll probably have a couple of seasons where he finishes that range but I'm not taking Justin Herbert over Caleb Williams. I'm not sure there's going to be a huge difference in production between Justin Herbert and Bo Nix who's younger. He's a better quarterback.
- [44:10]
Adam Pfeiffer
Drake May Drake Mays Brushes were great as a rookie and they've already talked about with McDaniels that they're going to continue to utilize that. I don't think again I I don't want to be too, you know contradictory but because the Patriots just don't have anything a wide receiver really. But I don't see. I don't I'd be I wouldn't be surprised if Herbert and Drake May stat lines in 2025 weren't too dissimilar.
- [44:34]
Heath Cummings
This is this is a good question from the chat. Herbert or Kyler? Herbert's definitely the safe answer.
- [44:42]
Adam Pfeiffer
I Kyler I struggle with because he has 30 points or he has 12 there is zero in between and a lot of those 12 point games last year were because he and Marvin Harrison just could not get on the same page on these back shoulder throws in the end zone. I want to believe that that connection is going to be a lot better right in year two. So I will lean Kyler but it is like that is I feel like if you looked at 90 of dynasty rankings they are back to back for everybody.
- [45:14]
Heath Cummings
Well I have. I have Kyler 10, I have Herbert 12 and I probably wouldn't like.
- [45:20]
Adam Pfeiffer
It's.
- [45:20]
Heath Cummings
They're close enough to where I wouldn't be like making a one for one trade probably. But the kind of the point of this exercise is the consensus value here shows Herbert as QB7 and Kyler is QB13. Yeah, I mean if I'm getting Kyler plus for Herbert, I'm. I'm slammed. I love that deal.
- [45:37]
Adam Pfeiffer
Yeah, it's not even a debate and I, I do believe I didn't have him on this list. But like Marvin Harrison, I have so many stats about him about like how they utilized him. He actually was top five in tight coverage rate and it was because they literally line him up on the perimeter and just said hey, go win. So I'm expecting a lot more of the scheme stuff for him. Not that he's like you know, Brian Thomas or some of these other rookies after the catch, but he's not somebody that can't do stuff after the catch. Arizona, let's get him the ball please.
- [46:04]
Heath Cummings
I had two wide receivers on my sell list. They are Brandon Aiyuk who is currently valued as wide receiver 32. And I hate to say it, you guys know how much I love Mike Evans. But Mike Evans at wide receiver 36.
- [46:19]
Adam Pfeiffer
Why don't you love a thousand yard seasons, Heath?
- [46:21]
Heath Cummings
I love a thousand yard seasons. I love 10 touchdown seasons. Mike Evans I believe was my most drafted wide receiver last year in redraft. He's 32 now or will be by the start of the season. Father Time is undefeated. Chris Godwin is back in Tampa. When those two played together last year I was looking dumb for Mike Evans being my most drafted wide receiver in Redraft. And so I think like I am not confident at all that Mike Evans is going to be better than Devonte Adams. In fact currently my projections I've got Adams projected higher than Mike.
- [46:58]
Adam Pfeiffer
I have Adams ahead of Evans too.
- [47:00]
Heath Cummings
And and they're both 32 years old and Mike Evans is currently wide receiver 36 and Adams is wide receiver 44. If I'm buying a vet wide receiver I'd rather buy Adam straight up and he's cheaper.
- [47:18]
Adam Pfeiffer
I do not disagree. This is not very fun but I literally did my rankings yesterday had had Adams ahead and again Mike Evans we know is going to be good but he belt he dealt with those hamstrings a couple times last year and he got a little scary. Obviously was on IR for a little bit. And what happens if Jalen McMillan gets a little bit more of a role? Not that he is going to be Anything more than the wide receiver three on this team. But he's proven he's very capable. And yeah, I mean Godwin was literally a top five fantasy wide receiver before the ankle. So it felt like it was definitely still like 1a, 1b. But Godwin was the 1a. Will it be the same with coming off the ankle? Maybe, maybe not, but. But it's just between that value of Evans and again, like you said, 32 years old, it's not like he hasn't had, he hasn't had like major injuries, but he's, he's gonna miss a couple games a year for sure, right?
- [48:16]
Heath Cummings
Yeah. So. And then iuk like he had the injury last year. I don't know at what point there's.
- [48:22]
Adam Pfeiffer
Not a player I don't want to trade for or I want to trade for less right now than iuk. I just, I don't know if he's gonna be a team. I don't know if he's gonna be healthy. Somebody tried to trade him to me like the other day and I was like, I, I have no interest.
- [48:32]
Heath Cummings
So somebody's trying to trade for him. Let's say somebody thinks they're buying low on Brandon Iuk at a wide receiver 32 value. What type of rookie pick would you take to move him? He currently is one spot behind Luther Burden in terms of value, that's probably 106 to 108ish. In Super Flex, I would take any first round pick. I think. Yes, like what somebody sends you 110, you're smash accept.
- [49:02]
Adam Pfeiffer
Yeah, because I just, it's not even just the ACL and everything. I just don't know where he's gonna play.
- [49:09]
Heath Cummings
Right.
- [49:10]
Adam Pfeiffer
Like there's, I don't know how there's still trade rumors. When he got the contract last year and he's got the ac, I just, yeah, give me any first and I'm probably hitting accept.
- [49:21]
Heath Cummings
You had Devonta Smith as a sell as well, right?
- [49:24]
Adam Pfeiffer
Yeah, and I hate it because this time last season he was literally one of my favorite players to draft in redraft. And it's all because of Vic Fangio. He transformed this defense and Devonta Smith became literally a 6 target per game guy. And the season started where it was like I was so excited about Kellen Moore putting Smith in the slot and we saw that. I Remember the Week 1 game against Green Bay, he was in the slot like 60% of the time was something we had not seen from him and he was, he was, the floor was way higher, looked like then the Eagles defense became the best defense in the league. And from week six on, DeVonta Smith averaged six targets per game. From week six on, the Eagles had a 54 neutral script rush rate, the highest rate in the NFL. I just, I don't think you have to trade him because he's still an awesome player and this is an awesome offense. But they just extended Saquon Barkley for two more years. I don't think the offensive identity is changing anytime soon after winning the Super Bowl. And yes, they lost a couple pieces on defense, but they, I feel like outside of maybe Milton Williams, they kept a lot of the core guys. I just, I just kind of view him as like a 6 to 7 target per game guy, which he can still be good, but he's behind A.J. brown. Barkley's getting 20 plus touches every single week. I think if you can move him for like who's he ranked ahead of or around like I'm trying to think of players that were close with him.
- [50:40]
Heath Cummings
Yeah. Devontae Smith is currently wide receiver 8 teen right behind Tet McMillan, Roma, Dun T. Higgins, AJ Brown.
- [50:49]
Adam Pfeiffer
T. Higgins I don't think is even close. I would rather have T.E. higgins in a landslide.
- [50:53]
Heath Cummings
He's right ahead of Rashi Rice, Jordan Addison, DJ Moore, Xavier Worthy.
- [50:59]
Adam Pfeiffer
I would rather have DJ Moore. I would rather have Roma Dunes. I'd rather have T. Higgins. Would you rather have a SHE Rice? I probably would, yeah.
- [51:06]
Heath Cummings
Yeah. I, I, I think just based on there's so much more upside and I.
- [51:10]
Adam Pfeiffer
Love Devonta Smith and like if you had me ranked 10 players I wanted to draft at the most last year, Smith would be on that list. But the offense changed because the defense changed. And it didn't just go from a bad defense to mediocre. Went from bad to literally the best defense on the planet. And that crushed him. There's so many games like Jalen Hurts threw the ball like 10 times in the second half.
- [51:33]
Heath Cummings
Right? No, it's, that's. And we'll see. Like those things don't stay that way forever. So maybe the Eagles defense has a fall off.
- [51:41]
Adam Pfeiffer
This is the one I feel least confident about, by the way, because he's such a good player. Jalen Hurts is awesome, the offense is awesome, but T. Higgins is like the polar opposite where he's just as talented and he's going to get a Dolphins that throws the ball 40 times per game.
- [51:53]
Heath Cummings
My finest final dynasty sale won't surprise anyone who's listened to the show over the last couple of weeks, but I am so out on Evan Ingram. He is Currently tight end four 14 tight end four would be really awful. Tight end 14 over on keep trade cut. Yes. He's going to the Denver Broncos. Yes. Ten years ago, Sean Payton had a really good role for a tight end in his offense.
- [52:19]
Adam Pfeiffer
I drafted Kobe Fleener once.
- [52:20]
Heath Cummings
He's coming off of one of the least efficient seasons ever. You look at players in NFL who have had at least 50 targets and an A dot below six and Yak below three and a half, which he was 5.4 for his ADOT, 3.2 for his Yak per reception. It's basically just really terrible football players and Evan Ingram twice now in his career. He is going into his age 31 season and this doesn't. Some, some people. This doesn't matter to it all. I always keep track of it just because I think like, yeah, it's going to. They're going to increase their tight end target rate because they went and signed Evan Ingram. I agree with that. But over the last three seasons, 14.2% of the targets in Sean Payton's offense have gone to the tight end. That's terribly low. It's really difficult in it to have a system where you have a high running back target share and a high tight end target share. Those things. Generally one of them is better than the other. And we know Sean Payton's offense has always had a high running back target share and I expect that to continue again next year. I'm not sure that Evan Ingram is going to be a top 12 tight end and he's old. I'd much rather have Travis Kelsey and he's ranked seven spots higher.
- [53:47]
Adam Pfeiffer
It really comes down to, do you think he's getting top five target volume again? Because that's what he lived off last season. He was bottom 10among tight ends in EPA per target yards per target yards. Perception, like you mentioned, just unbelievably inefficient. I don't think he's going to be fifth among tight ends and targets per game this year. So yeah, I, I think the move makes sense for the Broncos, obviously.
- [54:11]
Heath Cummings
Right.
- [54:12]
Adam Pfeiffer
I don't like, I don't. I also don't think if he's on the board, they say, you know what, we don't have to draft Tyler Warren because we just signed Evan Ingram. Like, I think that's still in play for them to draft one of these guys. Colston, Loveland, whoever.
- [54:25]
Heath Cummings
Joff in the chat says Brenton strange over Ingram and I do agree with that one. And he's Currently six spots behind.
- [54:32]
Adam Pfeiffer
He's in the same role he was and he's probably more explosive of a player. And by probably, I mean definitely.
- [54:37]
Heath Cummings
It would be hard to be less explosive than the guy who has averaged less than nine yards per catch in three of his last four seasons and has only scored more than four touchdowns once in an NFL career.
- [54:50]
Adam Pfeiffer
He just does not see end zone targets ever.
- [54:52]
Heath Cummings
Evan Ingram gets a lot of targets. He is one of the worst in the NFL at turning targets into fantasy points in point for target leagues. Maybe you do like Evan Ingram, but go sell him along with Justin Herbert, Tyrone Tracy, Brian Robinson, Brandon Iuk, Mike Evans and Devonte Smith. Don't sell, Adam. We're gonna buy, buy, buy. Thank you for coming on here again today. Remind everybody once more where they can find your work.
- [55:19]
Adam Pfeiffer
Always a blast. Yeah. FTNfantasy.com check it out again. Just excited for the draft and to see these landing spots. I'll be doing a bunch of content over there as well as baseball. I mean, I don't do baseball, but baseball is here. I know you. We talked about this before. You and I both used to do baseball and football. Glad that's over. And I'm glad we have an awesome team at FCN that can cover you for baseball because I. I just. It's been like five years now since I've done it. I can't do it anymore.
- [55:46]
Heath Cummings
Thank you, Adam. Thank you, Thomas, for running everything. Thank you everybody who was active in the chat. I will be on vacation next week, so we will talk to you in April.
- [56:06]
Adam Pfeiffer
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- [56:11]
Heath Cummings
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Adam Pfeiffer
You have no idea what I'm capable of.
- [56:29]
Heath Cummings
What other secrets are you keeping? Stream the new season of School Spirits now on Paramount.
- [56:36]
Adam Pfeiffer
Plus.